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| #1148769 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 PM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Gert continues to be sustained by a very small but persistent area of convection east of its surface wind center. ASCAT data that came in 5 minutes after the release of the previous advisory showed peak winds of just above 25 kt well to the north of Gert`s center. South of Gert is mostly light and variable winds. Assuming Gert has weakened further a little since then, its intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. All models continue to suggest that Gert will struggle in the face of strong upper-level winds and a very dry surrounding environment. The small tropical depression will likely either lose organized deep convection and become a remnant low or dissipate at almost any time. There is a chance that Gert could persist as a remnant low beyond the 24 h shown in the NHC forecast, but it is unlikely that Gert will have sufficient organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone in that case. Gert is moving west-northwestward, but the depression or its remnants should turn more northwestward by tomorrow. No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts with this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 17.1N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 17.6N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1800Z 18.5N 59.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
