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| #1153245 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 17.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Margot Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 17 2023 Margot has lacked organized deep convection since around 00 UTC and is no longer a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The latest Dvorak current intensity estimate from TAFB is the basis for the 35 kt initial intensity. Regeneration in the short term is not expected due to high wind shear and dry surrounding air. With no deep convection, the cyclone's winds should gradually decrease over the next day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn slowly northward today and tonight, and then turn eastward by Tuesday in the wake of Post-Tropical Lee, which will be passing well to the north. While Margot's maximum winds could fluctuate slightly during this time, it could also open into a trough as early as Tuesday. After that, the cyclone or its remnants should meander west of the Azores for a day or two until it ultimately dissipates southeast of Nigel late this week. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 34.6N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 18/0000Z 35.3N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 36.8N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 38.2N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 38.4N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 20/0000Z 37.7N 34.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 37.2N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
