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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 
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#1184691 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 PM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THIS WEEK AT AREA BEACHES...
...MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
TOWARDS MIDWEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying
frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the
southern Appalachians. Aloft...stout ridging prevails over the
southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy
around its western periphery from the southern Plains states
northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than
average air mass remains over most of our region, except for
locations near the Suwannee River, where values were in the 1.6 -
1.8 inch range, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values
elsewhere were generally in the 1.3- 1.5 inch range, with higher
PWATS just north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary.
Our local pressure gradient is tightening as high pressure wedges
down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy easterly winds now in
place for locations along and east of the St. Johns River, where
the Atlantic sea breeze was progressing fairly quickly westward.
Widely scattered convection was developing along both the inland
moving Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries, generally for
locations south of the I-10 corridor. Temperatures ranged from the
upper 80s to lower 90s at most locations, with dewpoints falling
through the 60s for locations west of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor, with 70s for locations behind the inland moving Atlantic
sea breeze boundary.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the
afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20
mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this
afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The
strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will
generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the
Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75
corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter
higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River,
as it encounters a pinned Gulf Coast sea breeze. with scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to erupt by late
afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in the Suwannee
Valley and north central FL.

Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor
during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward
across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and
convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated
showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the
northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The
onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight,
keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of
I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A persistent weather pattern is expected for this period as high
pressure centered south and east of New England will continue to
extend a ridge southwestward across the area. This will also
continue a brisk onshore flow featuring easterly winds in the
10-20mph range with gusts around 25-35mph, and an elevated risk of
rip currents at area beaches. Guidance is also in pretty good
agreement that stacked high pressure to our northeast will advect
some drier than normal air into the region aloft, and therefore
reduce chances for any significant convection. The highest rain
chances will likely be closer to the coast during this time frame
with some showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm streaming
onshore. The secondary area where there may be some convective
coverage would be near or west of I-75 each day as the onshore
flow meets the pinned Gulf Coast seabreeze.

Expecting mainly mid to upper 80s for highs during this period,
with some low 90s likely for the western "half" of the CWA,
dropping into the low to mid 70s and upper 70s near the coast each
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday: Eyes for the this period will be primarily
focused on a tropical wave east of the Bahamas on Wednesday, and
the potential for further tropical organization/development as it
moves west-northwestward towards our area through Thursday. It is
still too far out to determine if the system will organize into a
tropical cyclone, or pass near the area as a tropical wave/trough.
In addition to strength and organization of the disturbance,
guidance is also shaky with regards to the track, which has varied
from moving towards as far north as the GA/SC border to as far
south as south of Cape Canaveral, pending the strength and
position of the strong steering ridge impacting the area this
week. Main points to drive home as of now will be: 1. this area
should pass close enough to increase rain chances area wide,
including some localized heavy rain and flooding potential 2.
gusty onshore conditions are likely to continue through at least
the end of the week, with hazardous beach conditions also likely
to persist.

Friday through Sunday: Aforementioned high pressure will start to
drift further south into the western Atlantic into next weekend,
with ridging overhead weakening a bit in the wake of the departing
disturbance. This should shift our flow more towards the southeast
for the weekend and return a more normal sea breeze convection
type of regime.

Temperatures: Tending near to slightly below average for the start
of the long term period with more unsettled weather, returning
closer to normal or even slightly above normal for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms currently developing along the inland
moving Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will converge upon the
Interstate 75 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next
few hours at VQQ, with higher chances for impacts at GNV after
20Z. We kept a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions and briefly gusty
winds in the 20Z-00Z window at GNV. MVFR visibilities are expected
to develop at VQQ overnight, with periods of IFR visibilities
possible during the predawn hours. Periods of MVFR ceilings will
be possible from the predawn through late morning hours on Monday
at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, as showers developing over
the adjacent near shore waters potentially move onshore towards
sunrise. These MVFR ceilings may then periodically impact the
Duval County terminals after 13Z. Confidence remains too low to
indicate anything other than scattered ceilings at the regional
terminals during the predawn and morning hours on Tuesday. Gusty
east-northeasterly surface winds that will be sustained around 15
knots this afternoon, except around 10 knots at VQQ and GNV, will
persist in the 10-15 knot range overnight through the early
morning hours at the coastal terminals, while speeds inland fall
to around 5 knots or less after 04Z. Gusty easterly surface winds
will then redevelop before 15Z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it
moves slowly offshore this evening. This feature will result in
strengthening easterly winds late this afternoon and evening
throughout our local waters, with winds and seas continuing to
gradually increase early this week. Small Craft will need to
Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and
Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas
build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin offshore on
Tuesday and near shore by Tuesday night, as onshore winds
strengthen to around 20 knots and seas build to 5-7 feet.

A low pressure center is expected to develop over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean early this week, with this feature gradually
organizing around midweek as it moves westward across the
Bahamas, with a low risk for tropical development as this system
approaches our local waters on Thursday and Thursday night.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase
across our local waters towards midweek, with widespread activity
likely by late week. Seas will continue to build, with near shore
seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday, while seas
offshore build to 9-13 feet.

Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds will result in building
and increasingly rough surf, especially during the outgoing tide
late this afternoon and early this evening. A High Risk of rip
currents is expected by late afternoon at the northeast FL
beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the southeast GA
beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2 feet or less
today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for the upcoming
work week at all area beaches due to gradually strengthening
onshore winds and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this
afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion
values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10
corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north
central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland
locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of
the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon
humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly
transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with
windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime
dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the
early to middle portions of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 80 87 80 85 / 10 30 20 40
JAX 74 90 73 88 / 10 20 20 50
SGJ 79 87 80 88 / 10 30 20 60
GNV 73 92 72 90 / 10 10 10 50
OCF 73 92 73 92 / 20 10 0 50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184684 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 PM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms currently developing along the inland
moving Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes will converge upon the
Interstate 75 corridor during the mid to late afternoon hours.
Vicinity showers and thunderstorms are expected during the next
few hours at VQQ, with higher chances for impacts at GNV after
20Z. We kept a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions and briefly gusty
winds in the 20Z-00Z window at GNV. MVFR visibilities are expected
to develop at VQQ overnight, with periods of IFR visibilities
possible during the predawn hours. Periods of MVFR ceilings will
be possible from the predawn through late morning hours on Monday
at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, as showers developing over
the adjacent near shore waters potentially move onshore towards
sunrise. These MVFR ceilings may then periodically impact the
Duval County terminals after 13Z. Confidence remains too low to
indicate anything other than scattered ceilings at the regional
terminals during the predawn and morning hours on Tuesday. Gusty
east-northeasterly surface winds that will be sustained around 15
knots this afternoon, except around 10 knots at VQQ and GNV, will
persist in the 10-15 knot range overnight through the early
morning hours at the coastal terminals, while speeds inland fall
to around 5 knots or less after 04Z. Gusty easterly surface winds
will then redevelop before 15Z Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying
frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the
southern Appalachians. Aloft...stout ridging prevails over the
southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy
around its western periphery from the southern Plains states
northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than
average air mass remains over most of our region, except for
locations near the Suwannee River, where values were around 1.8
inches, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values elsewhere
were generally in the 1.3 - 1.5 inch range, with higher PWATS
just north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary. Our
local pressure gradient is beginning to tighten as high pressure
wedges down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy onshore winds
taking shape at area beaches late this morning. Southeasterly low
level flow has shaped a healthy cumulus field across our area, and
temperatures at 15Z were already in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across our area, with dewpoints mostly in the 70s.

Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the
afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20
mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this
afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The
strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will
generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the
Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75
corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter
higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River,
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
erupt by late afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in
the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. In advance of the
approaching Atlantic sea breeze boundary, highs will soar to the
mid and possibly upper 90s across the Suwannee Valley and inland
southeast GA, where dewpoints will crash through the 60s this
afternoon, keeping maximum heat index values around 100. Breezy
onshore winds will keep highs in the lower 90s for locations east
of U.S. Highway 301, and coastal temperatures will fall into the
80s by late afternoon as onshore winds strengthen.

Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor
during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward
across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and
convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated
showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the
northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The
onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight,
keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of
I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it
moves slowly offshore this afternoon. This feature will result in
strengthening easterly winds by late this afternoon and evening
throughout our local waters, with winds and seas gradually
increasing early this week as this high pressure center remains
anchored off the New England coastline. Small Craft will need to
Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and
Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas
build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin both near shore
and offshore on Tuesday, as onshore winds strengthen to around 20
knots and seas build to 5-7 feet.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Atlantic
early this week, with this feature gradually organizing towards
midweek as it moves westward across the Bahamas, with a low risk
for tropical development as this system approaches our local
waters late on Wednesday night and Thursday. Please stay tuned to
updates from the National Hurricane Center this week for potential
changes to this forecast. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase across our local waters, with widespread
activity likely by mid to late week. Seas will continue to build,
with near shore seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday,
while seas offshore build to 9-13 feet.

Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds this afternoon will
result in building and increasingly rough surf, especially during
the outgoing tide late this afternoon and early this evening. A
High Risk of rip currents is expected by late afternoon at the
northeast FL beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the
southeast GA beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2
feet or less today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for
the upcoming work week at all area beaches due to gradually
strengthening onshore winds and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this
afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion
values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10
corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north
central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland
locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of
the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon
humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly
transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with
windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime
dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the
early to middle portions of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 92 71 91 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 80 87 80 85 / 10 30 20 40
JAX 74 90 73 88 / 10 20 20 50
SGJ 79 87 80 88 / 10 30 20 60
GNV 73 92 72 90 / 10 10 10 50
OCF 73 92 73 92 / 20 10 0 50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184671 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...BECOMING BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE NORTHEAST FL BEACHES...
...MONITORING POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BAHAMAS
TOWARDS MIDWEEK...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Late morning surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1027 millibars) centered over New England, with a decaying
frontal boundary wedging southward through the Carolinas and the
southern Appalachians. Aloft...stout ridging prevails over the
southeastern states, with the feature steering shortwave energy
around its western periphery from the southern Plains states
northeastward to the Great Lakes region. Latest GOES-East derived
Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier than
average air mass remains over most of our region, except for
locations near the Suwannee River, where values were around 1.8
inches, which is closer to climatology. PWAT values elsewhere
were generally in the 1.3- 1.5 inch range, with higher PWATS just
north of our region near the decaying frontal boundary. Our local
pressure gradient is beginning to tighten as high pressure wedges
down the southeastern seaboard, with breezy onshore winds taking
shape at area beaches late this morning. Southeasterly low level
flow has shaped a healthy cumulus field across our area, and
temperatures at 15Z were already in the upper 80s and lower 90s
across our area, with dewpoints mostly in the 70s.

Breezy easterly winds will overspread inland locations as the
afternoon progresses, with onshore winds increasing to the 15-20
mph range with occasional gusts up to 30 mph by late this
afternoon and early this evening along the Atlantic coast. The
strengthening surface ridge along the New England coast will
generally advect a dry and subsident air mass onshore, with the
Atlantic sea breeze progressing well inland towards the I-75
corridor by the late afternoon hours. This boundary will encounter
higher PWAT values located along and west of the Suwannee River,
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to
erupt by late afternoon for locations along and west of I-75 in
the Suwannee Valley and north central FL. In advance of the
approaching Atlantic sea breeze boundary, highs will soar to the
mid and possibly upper 90s across the Suwannee Valley and inland
southeast GA, where dewpoints will crash through the 60s this
afternoon, keeping maximum heat index values around 100. Breezy
onshore winds will keep highs in the lower 90s for locations east
of U.S. Highway 301, and coastal temperatures will fall into the
80s by late afternoon as onshore winds strengthen.

Showers and thunderstorms developing along the I-75 corridor
during the mid to late afternoon hours will progress westward
across the Suwannee and Alapaha Rivers by sunset. Breezy and
convergent low level easterly flow may begin to advect isolated
showers developing over the Atlantic waters onshore along the
northeast FL coastal counties towards sunrise on Monday. The
onshore breeze will be slow to weaken along the coast overnight,
keeping lows in the upper 70s to around 80 for locations east of
I-95, while lows elsewhere fall to the low and mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into
the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the
Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph
along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland
areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will
push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas
through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon
hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max
temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the
Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland
areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin
up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance
pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula.
Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low
pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line
during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to
50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy
storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the
main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still
reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the
local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this
month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but
localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and
along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles.

Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a
weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region
and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25
mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as
it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture
will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70%
range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max
temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs
in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
with lower to middle 90s over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A few bands of stratus will move in off the Atlantic early this
morning. These clouds could result in a few restrictions at
coastal TAF sites early in this period. Convection will initiate
later this morning just inland of KSGJ. This activity will then
spread west across NE FL through the afternoon. The KGNV site will
have the best chance for restrictions in showers and storms this
afternoon into early evening. This convection will dissipate later
this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure centered over New England will strengthen as it
moves slowly offshore this afternoon. This feature will result in
strengthening easterly winds by late this afternoon and evening
throughout our local waters, with winds and seas gradually
increasing early this week as this high pressure center remains
anchored off the New England coastline. Small Craft will need to
Exercise Caution if venturing into our local waters on Monday and
Monday night, as easterly winds strengthen to 15-20 knots and seas
build to 3-5 feet on Monday and 4-6 feet by Monday evening. Small
Craft Advisory conditions are expected to begin both near shore
and offshore on Tuesday, as onshore winds strengthen to around 20
knots and seas build to 5-7 feet.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern Atlantic
early this week, with this feature gradually organizing towards
midweek as it moves westward across the Bahamas, with a low risk
for tropical development as this system approaches our local
waters late on Wednesday night and Thursday. Please stay tuned to
updates from the National Hurricane Center this week for potential
changes to this forecast. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase across our local waters, with widespread
activity likely by mid to late week. Seas will continue to build,
with near shore seas climbing to the 8-11 foot range by Thursday,
while seas offshore build to 9-13 feet.

Rip Currents: Strengthening easterly winds this afternoon will
result in building and increasingly rough surf, especially during
the outgoing tide late this afternoon and early this evening. A
High Risk of rip currents is expected by late afternoon at the
northeast FL beaches, with a high end moderate risk for the
southeast GA beaches, where wave heights should remain around 2
feet or less today. A high risk of rip currents is expected for
the upcoming work week at all area beaches due to gradually
strengthening onshore winds and building seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1119 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Easterly surface and transport winds will become breezy this
afternoon, creating good to marginally high daytime dispersion
values for locations along and north of the Interstate 10
corridor. Generally fair dispersion values are expected for north
central FL this afternoon. A dry air mass will prevail for inland
locations across southeast GA and also for northern portions of
the Suwannee Valley today and again on Monday, where afternoon
humidity values will fall to the 30-35 percent. Breezy easterly
transport winds will prevail area-wide on Monday and Tuesday, with
windy surface conditions expected along the I-95 corridor during
the afternoon and early evening hours. Good to high daytime
dispersion values are forecast throughout our region for the
early to middle portions of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 72 92 71 / 10 0 10 10
SSI 89 80 87 80 / 10 10 30 20
JAX 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 20 20
SGJ 89 79 87 80 / 10 10 30 20
GNV 93 73 92 72 / 40 10 10 10
OCF 93 73 92 73 / 50 20 10 0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ124-
125-133-138.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184647 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
619 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Morning fog is expected this morning, mainly north of I10, as cloud
cover over north central FL will be a limiting factor there. Not
expecting widespread dense fog, but a few locations could become
dense for a short time around dawn.

High pressure will build to the north northeast this period. This
will enhance the onshore flow pattern. With an onshore flow, the sea
breeze will push inland earlier in the day. Convection is expected
to intiate on the sea breeze over eastern portions of NE FL later
this morning, due to the sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating.
This activity will then shift inland through the afternoon, as the
flow pushes it along. Due to the strength of the onshore flow,
the Gulf sea breeze will only push to just shy of the forecast
area, but may still help to strengthen activity once it reaches
the I75 corridor. This activity will continue through the
afternoon into early evening, then diminish with loss of diurnal
heating. Clearing skies for Tonight. Could see patchy fog develop
again overnight, but will depend on where rain falls Today, and
how much cloud lingers past the day time hours.

Highs will range from the lower to mid 90s inland, with mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s are
expected, except closer to 80 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into
the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the
Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph
along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland
areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will
push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas
through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon
hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max
temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the
Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland
areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin
up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance
pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula.
Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low
pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line
during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to
50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy
storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the
main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still
reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the
local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this
month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but
localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and
along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles.

Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a
weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region
and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25
mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as
it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture
will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70%
range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max
temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs
in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
with lower to middle 90s over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A few bands of stratus will move in off the Atlantic early this
morning. These clouds could result in a few restrictions at
coastal TAF sites early in this period. Convection will initiate
later this morning just inland of KSGJ. This activity will then
spread west across NE FL through the afternoon. The KGNV site will
have the best chance for restrictions in showers and storms this
afternoon into early evening. This convection will dissipate later
this evening, with clearing skies for the overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure will be located to the northeast through the middle of
next week. This will result in a prolonged period of onshore flow,
with Small Craft Advisory criteria conditions possible beginning
Tuesday. Long range models indicate a wave of low pressure moving
west toward the FL peninsula later in the week. At this point,
there is a good bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this wave
may become, so stay aware of latest information.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, then high for Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 72 93 69 / 10 0 20 10
SSI 87 79 86 76 / 10 0 40 20
JAX 91 75 89 73 / 10 0 50 20
SGJ 88 77 88 75 / 20 0 60 30
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 40 0 40 10
OCF 91 73 93 71 / 40 20 40 10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184621 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 AM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Morning fog is expected this morning, mainly north of I10, as cloud
cover over north central FL will be a limiting factor there. Not
expecting widespread dense fog, but a few locations could become
dense for a short time around dawn.

High pressure will build to the north northeast this period. This
will enhance the onshore flow pattern. With an onshore flow, the sea
breeze will push inland earlier in the day. Convection is expected
to intiate on the sea breeze over eastern portions of NE FL later
this morning, due to the sea breeze convergence and diurnal heating.
This activity will then shift inland through the afternoon, as the
flow pushes it along. Due to the strength of the onshore flow,
the Gulf sea breeze will only push to just shy of the forecast
area, but may still help to strengthen activity once it reaches
the I75 corridor. This activity will continue through the
afternoon into early evening, then diminish with loss of diurnal
heating. Clearing skies for Tonight. Could see patchy fog develop
again overnight, but will depend on where rain falls Today, and
how much cloud lingers past the day time hours.

Highs will range from the lower to mid 90s inland, with mid to
upper 80s along the coast. Lows in the lower to mid 70s are
expected, except closer to 80 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Monday...Relatively strong high pressure center building into
the Carolinas north of the region will continue to increase the
Easterly flow off the Atlantic with breezy winds at 15-25G35 mph
along the Atlantic Coastal areas and 10-20G30 mph over inland
areas during the afternoon hours. Likely expecting a high risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic Coast. This flow pattern will
push scattered showers and isolated storms into the coastal areas
through the day and into the inland areas during the afternoon
hours with gusty winds as the main threat from storm activity. Max
temps will be close to normal values in the upper 80s along the
Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over inland
areas.

Monday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains
locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly
flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast
with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over
inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will
continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms
from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with
gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas
during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal
levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic
Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas.

Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic
Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing
onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist
over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along
the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps
elevated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Wednesday/Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin
up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance
pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula.
Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low
pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall
and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line
during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to
50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy
storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the
main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal
levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the
mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still
reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the
local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this
month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but
localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and
along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles.

Friday/Saturday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a
weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region
and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25
mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as
it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture
will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70%
range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max
temps bounce back near and slightly above normal levels with highs
in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor
with lower to middle 90s over inland areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Morning fog will be possible this morning, mainly from Jacksonville
north, as high cloudiness over north central FL will decrease fog
chances further south. The fog will diminish shortly after
sunrise. Convection will develop near the NE FL coast later this
morning on sea breeze, with this activity then moving further
inland through the afternoon. The I75 corridor will be most active
for convection from mid afternoon through early evening, with the
KGNV site most affected Today with convection related
restrictions.

Any convection which develops this Today, will diminish this
evening, with mainly clear skies for Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

High pressure will be located to the northeast through the middle of
next week. This will result in a prolonged period of onshore flow,
with Small Craft Advisory criteria conditions possible beginning
Tuesday. Long range models indicate a wave of low pressure moving
west toward the FL peninsula later in the week. At this point,
there is a good bit of uncertainty regarding how strong this wave
may become, so stay aware of latest information.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, then high for Monday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 95 72 93 69 / 10 0 20 10
SSI 87 79 86 76 / 10 0 40 20
JAX 91 75 89 73 / 10 0 50 20
SGJ 88 77 88 75 / 10 0 60 30
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 40 0 40 10
OCF 91 73 93 71 / 40 20 40 10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184603 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
938 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Overall forecast is on track this evening as thunderstorms are
quickly waning west of I-75 towards the Gulf coast. After
leftover anvil debris clouds clear over NE FL, skies will be
mostly clear with patchy fog possible along the US17 corridor
towards US301 and along the Altamaha river basin. Light east
southeast winds at the coast will turn calm inland after midnight.
Lows will fall to the lower 70s over the interior with mid and
upper 70s closer to the coast.

High pressure will build to the northeast on Sunday with the local
pressure gradient beginning to tighten some, leading to elevated
onshore easterly winds 10-20 mph behind a quick moving Atlantic
seabreeze. Expect convection to develop again over the southern St
Johns river basin into north central FL as the Atlantic seabreeze
pushes far inland with stronger T`storm potential near I-75 as
it encounters and merges with the Gulf coast seabreeze with some
wind gusts up to 40-50 mph and brief heavy downpours as the main
impacts. Highs will be a little less hot with low to mid 90s
inland and upper 80s to near 90 along the beaches and coastal
communities. Storms should fade west of I-75 an hour after sunset.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties
of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and
eastern Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast
sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up
with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to
numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure
over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just
offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued
easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on
Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very similar
scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will
near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is
anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best
moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for
tonight. High res models do show some patchy fog near the Altamaha
River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures
are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s
common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the
area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure
builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over
Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an
increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze
will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor
being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s
along the coast, and 90s inland.

Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered
shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of
15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas
persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights,
staying in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast.
High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow,
keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s,
with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal
temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a
slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze
will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to
numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze
interactions and ample diurnal heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period into Sunday.
Thunderstorms will wane near GNV by 01Z with the loss of heating
and some drier air aloft with few to scattered low level clouds
and some leftover anvil clouds through 04Z-05Z. Winds will remain
east southeasterly along the coast 5-8 knots tonight and turning
calm inland after 05Z with some patchy fog that may bring MVFR
level visibility restrictions at GNV and VQQ until 11Z-12Z. High
pressure to the north overnight will build more to the northeast
on Sunday and light easterly winds 5-8 knots after sunrise will
become breezy with VCTS at GNV and VQQ after 17Z-18Z as Atlantic
seabreeze moves inland with VCSH posted at CRG, JAX, and SGJ.
Drier conditions will resume at the duval and coastal sites after
21Z with still breezy easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift
to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to
the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged
period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible around the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE
GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore
winds build.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next
week with high pressure to our north transitioning to well
northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of
convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to
numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside
near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern
Suwannee Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior
SE GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range
during peak heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 95 72 93 / 0 10 0 20
SSI 77 88 78 87 / 0 10 10 40
JAX 74 91 74 89 / 0 20 10 40
SGJ 74 89 77 88 / 10 20 20 50
GNV 73 92 71 92 / 30 50 10 40
OCF 73 92 72 92 / 40 60 10 40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$
#1184597 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 16.Jun.2024)
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
751 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

East coast sea breeze has pushed through the First Coast counties
of NE FL producing a few showers near the western Flagler and
eastern Putnam county border this early afternoon. The east coast
sea breeze will continue to push westward toward I-75 meeting up
with the Gulf seabreeze where showers will be scattered to
numerous the later part of the afternoon. Surface high pressure
over the OH/TN River Valley this afternoon will transition to just
offshore of New England on Sunday. This will allow a continued
easterly flow across the region, with slightly higher winds on
Sunday, with breezy conditions on the beaches. Very similar
scenario as today where most favorable area for convection will
near the I-75 corridor where the east coast sea breeze is
anticipated to meet up with the Gulf of Mexico sea breeze for best
moisture convergence. A mainly clear night is forecast for
tonight. High res models do show some patchy fog near the Altamaha
River Basin during the pre-dawn hours. Above normal temperatures
are forecast this afternoon and Sunday afternoon, with mid 90s
common inland. Lows will range from the lower to mid 70s over the
area tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly winds will begin to build on Sunday as high pressure
builds near the Carolina`s, and with a dissipating front over
Georgia/South Carolina, enough moisture will be in place for an
increase in precipitation potential. The east coast sea breeze
will be able to make it`s way westward, with the I-75 corridor
being highlighted for numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening. Highs will reach the upper 80s
along the coast, and 90s inland.

Similar high temperatures forecast for Monday, with scattered
shower and thunderstorm potential continuing as onshore winds of
15-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 10-20 mph over inland areas
persist. Mild low temperatures both Sunday and Monday nights,
staying in the 70s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Each day during this period will have a very similar forecast.
High pressure to the northeast will promote elevated onshore flow,
keeping high temperatures along the coast in the mid to upper 80s,
with inland highs reaching the lower 90s, close to near normal
temperatures. Showers over the Atlantic will move onshore, with a
slight uptick in coverage each day, and the east coast sea breeze
will be able to push inland in the afternoons. Scattered to
numerous showers expected each day, with highest thunderstorm
chances in the afternoon/evenings over NE FL with sea breeze
interactions and ample diurnal heating.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Mostly VFR conditions throughout the 00Z TAF period into Sunday.
Thunderstorms will wane near GNV by 01Z with the loss of heating
and some drier air aloft with few to scattered low level clouds
and some leftover anvil clouds through 04Z-05Z. Winds will remain
east southeasterly along the coast 5-8 knots tonight and turning
calm inland after 05Z with some patchy fog that may bring MVFR
level visibility restrictions at GNV and VQQ until 11Z-12Z. High
pressure to the north overnight will build more to the northeast
on Sunday and light easterly winds 5-8 knots after sunrise will
become breezy with VCTS at GNV and VQQ after 17Z-18Z as Atlantic
seabreeze moves inland with VCSH posted at CRG, JAX, and SGJ.
Drier conditions will resume at the duval and coastal sites after
21Z with still breezy easterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

High pressure will build to the north through Tonight, then shift
to the northeast Sunday. High pressure will remain centered to
the northeast through the upcoming week, leading to a prolonged
period of onshore flow. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be
possible around the middle of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend for NE FL and SE
GA beaches, potential for high risk early this week as onshore
winds build.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Easterly flow will prevail through the weekend and much of next
week with high pressure to our north transitioning to well
northeast of the region. This weekend the best chances of
convection will occur along the I-75 corridor where scattered to
numerous showers are anticipated. High dispersions will reside
near the Altamaha River, interior southeast Georgia and northern
Suwannee Valley Sunday afternoon. Min RH values across interior
SE GA Sunday afternoon will be in the 35 to 40 percent range
during peak heating.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 72 95 72 93 / 10 10 0 20
SSI 77 88 78 87 / 10 10 10 40
JAX 74 91 74 89 / 10 20 10 40
SGJ 74 89 77 88 / 10 40 20 50
GNV 73 92 71 92 / 30 60 10 40
OCF 73 92 72 92 / 40 80 10 40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$