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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1182700 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Rest of Today-Tonight...High pressure drifts offshore into the western Atlantic into tonight, maintaining onshore flow through the period. A stout inversion above 850mb will keep us mostly dry, but enough moisture exists below this layer to support a marine stratocu deck. A few showers or storms will be possible in this layer overnight tonight along and offshore from the Treasure Coast. Otherwise, mostly dry. Winds will diminish after sunset this evening, though continued onshore flow will be enough to keep coastal areas in the lower to mid-70s. Sunday...As high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic, onshore flow eases, with winds under 10mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph, with gusts to around 20mph, behind the sea breeze during the afternoon. Winds aloft will back westerly, advecting in higher moisture into the mid and upper levels. A less hostile environment aloft should allow for PoPs to reenter the forecast. Models are in disagreement about the coverage of any showers or storms Sunday afternoon, though a sea breeze collision is expected over the interior. Thus, have PoPs 30-50% tomorrow, with the highest PoPs over southern and western portions of the forecast area. Easing onshore flow will allow afternoon high temperatures to increase slightly, rising into the upper 80s along the coast and lower 90s inland. Sunday night, low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. Previous discussion.. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu- Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue through the evening hours, improving into tonight as high pressure settles in over the western Atlantic and winds diminish. Until then, onshore flow to around 20kts south of Sebastian Inlet, with 10-20kts elsewhere. Seas up to 6ft over the Treasure Coast waters will also diminish this evening, becoming 4-5ft. 3-5ft for the Atlantic waters north of this area. Showers and a few storms will be possible over the Treasure Coast waters overnight, especially towards morning. Boating conditions improve late weekend into next week, as easterly winds decrease to around 15kts or less. Will see winds veer southeasterly/southerly by late week. Daily shower and lightning storm chances, though PoPs remain around 30% or less most days and do not exceed 50% through the period. Seas 3-4ft Sunday becoming 2-3ft by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Today...Sensitive fire weather conditions today, with breezy easterly winds 15 to 20mph and gusts up to around 30 mph. Will stay mostly dry through the overnight hours, though a few showers or storms will be possible along the Treasure Coast, especially towards morning. Min RH this afternoon between 35-45% over much of the area, with the driest conditions inland. Very good to excellent dispersion through sunset. Sunday-Early Next Week...Conditions improve slightly Sunday into early next week, as higher moisture creeps into the local area, keeping min RH values 40-50% over the interior and higher along the coast. Onshore flow will also diminish, though winds up to 15mph and gusts to 20mph are expected behind the sea breeze each afternoon. PoPs increase beginning Sunday, becoming up to 30-50%, with the highest chances over the interior. High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Good to very good dispersion each afternoon. && .AVIATION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions continue, but will need to remain vigilant if any nearby brushfires close to TAF sites for FU concerns. Breezy/gusty easterly winds through the period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish gradually tonight. A few showers or ISOLD storm may be possible along the Treasure Coast late this afternoon into tonight, though confidence remains low. Increasing (ISOLD-SCT) PoP chances, mainly in the afternoon on Sun, though could see a few morning showers across the Treasure Coast. Weaker pressure gradient in place for Sun with lighter ERLY winds than previous couple of days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 86 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 MCO 70 89 71 90 / 0 50 20 40 MLB 73 86 72 87 / 10 40 30 40 VRB 72 87 71 88 / 20 50 40 40 LEE 70 90 72 91 / 10 40 10 40 SFB 70 89 71 91 / 0 40 20 40 ORL 71 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 40 FPR 71 86 69 88 / 20 50 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182698 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 207 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions continue, but will need to remain vigilant if any nearby brushfires close to TAF sites for FU concerns. Breezy/gusty easterly winds through the period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish gradually tonight. A few showers or ISOLD storm may be possible along the Treasure Coast late this afternoon into tonight, though confidence remains low. Increasing (ISOLD-SCT) PoP chances, mainly in the afternoon on Sun, though could see a few morning showers across the Treasure Coast. Weaker pressure gradient in place for Sun with lighter ERLY winds than previous couple of days. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Mostly dry conditions today, as high pressure moves offshore of the eastern US seaboard and into the western Atlantic. Very dry air above 850mb traps a layer of moisture below it that will continue to support marine stratocu development into tonight. A few sprinkles or showers may develop out of this layer, mainly this evening into tonight. PoPs around 20% or less. The pressure gradient as the ridge shifts offshore will lead to breezy to windy onshore winds today, with gusts of 20 to 25mph, especially along the coast. Paired with min RH values of 35-45% and dry fuels, this will make for sensitive fire weather conditions. Onshore flow will at least provide more seasonable temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 70 86 70 87 / 10 30 20 30 MCO 70 89 71 90 / 0 50 20 40 MLB 73 86 72 87 / 10 40 30 40 VRB 72 87 71 88 / 20 50 40 40 LEE 70 90 72 91 / 10 40 10 40 SFB 70 89 71 91 / 0 40 20 40 ORL 71 90 72 91 / 0 40 10 40 FPR 71 86 69 88 / 20 50 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182671 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1020 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Mostly dry conditions today, as high pressure moves offshore of the eastern US seaboard and into the western Atlantic. Very dry air above 850mb traps a layer of moisture below it that will continue to support marine stratocu development into tonight. A few sprinkles or showers may develop out of this layer, mainly this evening into tonight. PoPs around 20% or less. The pressure gradient as the ridge shifts offshore will lead to breezy to windy onshore winds today, with gusts of 20 to 25mph, especially along the coast. Paired with min RH values of 35-45% and dry fuels, this will make for sensitive fire weather conditions. Onshore flow will at least provide more seasonable temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: - Breezy East winds combined with dry conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. - Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Today. Today...High pressure will slide E-SE and off the Carolina coast late in the day. Clockwise circulation around this high pressure and its assocd pressure gradient will produce breezy East winds, 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph across EC FL. Current temps holding in the upper 70s along the coast due to the breezy onshore flow but max temps will only reach the mid 80s there, a typically small diurnal range in such flow regimes. Over the interior, max temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90, very seasonable for the first day of June and a respite from the recent heat. There is some moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion around 850 mb. This will promote scattered marine stratocu pushing onshore that pancakes beneath the base of the inversion. Brief periods of mostly cloudy skies are possible. And cannot rule out a few sprinkles falling out of these clouds but measurable precip is not expected. Sun...The pressure gradient eases as the high center moves seaward away from the area so not quite as breezy but east flow will continue which will push the sea breeze steadily inland. The dry airmass will also shift eastward and allow some moistening from the west. As a result, rain chances have increased some with the best chance for scattered showers and storms across southern sections as early as Sun morning along the Treasure coast. Sufficient moisture now looks to exist over the interior in the aftn to generate 30-40% coverage of showers/storms. This is about 20% below NBM PoPs which are typically too high. Max temps remain seasonable, just a degree or so warmer than today. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu-Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy easterly winds through the period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish tonight. A few showers or storms may be possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon into tonight, though confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAFs at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the Carolina coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into early next week. Fresh East winds around this high pressure will produce poor to hazardous conditions today then conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Brevard waters until 10 am and the Treasure coast waters (south of Sebastian Inlet) until 10 pm this evening. Seas will peak at 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape today. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft by Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182660 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 725 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions prevailing. Breezy easterly winds through the period, with gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, especially along the coast. Winds will diminish tonight. A few showers or storms may be possible along the Treasure Coast this afternoon into tonight, though confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAFs at this time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: - Breezy East winds combined with dry conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. - Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Today. Today...High pressure will slide E-SE and off the Carolina coast late in the day. Clockwise circulation around this high pressure and its assocd pressure gradient will produce breezy East winds, 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph across EC FL. Current temps holding in the upper 70s along the coast due to the breezy onshore flow but max temps will only reach the mid 80s there, a typically small diurnal range in such flow regimes. Over the interior, max temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90, very seasonable for the first day of June and a respite from the recent heat. There is some moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion around 850 mb. This will promote scattered marine stratocu pushing onshore that pancakes beneath the base of the inversion. Brief periods of mostly cloudy skies are possible. And cannot rule out a few sprinkles falling out of these clouds but measurable precip is not expected. Sun...The pressure gradient eases as the high center moves seaward away from the area so not quite as breezy but east flow will continue which will push the sea breeze steadily inland. The dry airmass will also shift eastward and allow some moistening from the west. As a result, rain chances have increased some with the best chance for scattered showers and storms across southern sections as early as Sun morning along the Treasure coast. Sufficient moisture now looks to exist over the interior in the aftn to generate 30-40% coverage of showers/storms. This is about 20% below NBM PoPs which are typically too high. Max temps remain seasonable, just a degree or so warmer than today. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu-Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the Carolina coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into early next week. Fresh East winds around this high pressure will produce poor to hazardous conditions today then conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Brevard waters until 10 am and the Treasure coast waters (south of Sebastian Inlet) until 10 pm this evening. Seas will peak at 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape today. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft by Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182644 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 512 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Key Messages: - Breezy East winds combined with dry conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. - Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions Today. Today...High pressure will slide E-SE and off the Carolina coast late in the day. Clockwise circulation around this high pressure and its assocd pressure gradient will produce breezy East winds, 15-20 mph with gusts near 30 mph across EC FL. Current temps holding in the upper 70s along the coast due to the breezy onshore flow but max temps will only reach the mid 80s there, a typically small diurnal range in such flow regimes. Over the interior, max temps will reach the upper 80s/near 90, very seasonable for the first day of June and a respite from the recent heat. There is some moisture trapped below a subsidence inversion around 850 mb. This will promote scattered marine stratocu pushing onshore that pancakes beneath the base of the inversion. Brief periods of mostly cloudy skies are possible. And cannot rule out a few sprinkles falling out of these clouds but measurable precip is not expected. Sun...The pressure gradient eases as the high center moves seaward away from the area so not quite as breezy but east flow will continue which will push the sea breeze steadily inland. The dry airmass will also shift eastward and allow some moistening from the west. As a result, rain chances have increased some with the best chance for scattered showers and storms across southern sections as early as Sun morning along the Treasure coast. Sufficient moisture now looks to exist over the interior in the aftn to generate 30-40% coverage of showers/storms. This is about 20% below NBM PoPs which are typically too high. Max temps remain seasonable, just a degree or so warmer than today. Mon-Fri...A weak high pressure ridge axis will gradually settle southward from north FL Mon to south FL Thu-Fri. Moisture looks fairly limited so the daily 30-40% PoPs may be a bit generous. Have more confidence that max temperatures will continue a warming trend with lower 90s interior Mon reaching mid 90s Tue and beyond. Such low to mid 90s will spread to the east coast by late week as the sea breeze onset gets more and more delayed. && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 High pressure will slide east-southeast and offshore the Carolina coast this afternoon, then seaward over the western Atlantic. A trailing ridge axis will extend westward across north Florida into early next week. Fresh East winds around this high pressure will produce poor to hazardous conditions today then conditions will gradually improve Sunday through Tuesday as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. A small craft advisory remains in effect for the Brevard waters until 10 am and the Treasure coast waters (south of Sebastian Inlet) until 10 pm this evening. Seas will peak at 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape today. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft by Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 502 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Mainly dry and breezy/gusty conditions will produce a fire weather sensitive day today. Min RH values will hover near 35% across Lake county and adjacent portions of western Orange and northwest Osceola. Min RH values will trend higher toward the coast, holding between 45% and 55% there. But East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersions. Combined with dry fuels, any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. This will be a concern even near the coast even though RH values will be slightly higher. On Sunday, the onshore winds will decrease some and the dry airmass will modify allowing min RH values to hold about 10% higher than today. There will also be a better chance for showers and storms especially south of Orlando. Rain/storm chances should remain below normal during the early to mid next week but critically low RH values are not forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northeast winds at 4-8kts inland and 10-12kts along the coast are forecast to increase after 12Z-15Z with gusts to 20-26kts this afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours from the east. SCT clouds (potentially BKN mainly near the coast) at around 040-050kft are forecast this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182616 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR and dry conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Northeast winds at 4-8kts inland and 10-12kts along the coast are forecast to increase after 12Z-15Z with gusts to 20-26kts this afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish into the late evening and overnight hours from the east. SCT clouds (potentially BKN mainly near the coast) at around 040-050kft are forecast this afternoon. && .UPDATE... (Through Saturday) Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - Most areas to remain dry through Saturday. A few sprinkles possible overnight, with isolated showers along the Treasure Coast. - Deteriorating boating conditions through tomorrow. - Somewhat better chances for showers and storms from Sunday into early next week. Another quiet evening of weather across East Central Florida. RAP analysis indicates an initial surge of drier air is sweeping southward into the area, leading to more comfortable humidity for the end of May. However, a bit of moisture remains trapped near the top of the PBL, which could be enough to spark a few onshore- moving sprinkles overnight near the coast. Additional modified continental air reaches the district Saturday, leading to a mainly dry forecast. The exception to this will be the southern Treasure Coast where PW values remain just high enough to support 20% shower/storm chances in the afternoon. Sprawling high pressure continues to pass by to our north. As it does, expect continued breezy conditions near the coast overnight, holding temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and east of US-1. Elsewhere, upper 60s/low 70s will be commonplace. East breezes will likely gust from 15-25 mph again on Saturday. Highs will warm into the mid 80s beachside to near 90 from the Kissimmee Basin into Lake County. You will find patchy smoke in the digital forecast south of Holopaw (Osceola Co) and near Palm City (Martin Co) due to nearby wildfires. This may cause locally reduced visibility; slow down and increase following distance if you encounter smoke while driving. Breezy and dry conditions could cause any active fires to quickly spread on Saturday. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Through Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue- Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Overnight...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all local waters from Brevard Co southward as winds are freshening due to a tightening pressure gradient. ENE winds 15-20 KT with seas building to 3-5 FT nearshore, 4-6 FT offshore. Slight chance for a shower. Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv (SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft Tue. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually increase in coverage next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 71 86 70 / 0 0 30 20 MCO 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 40 20 MLB 85 73 86 73 / 10 20 50 30 VRB 86 72 86 72 / 10 20 50 40 LEE 89 70 91 72 / 10 10 30 10 SFB 88 70 89 71 / 0 0 30 10 ORL 88 71 90 72 / 0 0 40 10 FPR 86 71 86 71 / 10 30 50 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
| #1182595 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... (Through Saturday) Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - Most areas to remain dry through Saturday. A few sprinkles possible overnight, with isolated showers along the Treasure Coast. - Deteriorating boating conditions through tomorrow. - Somewhat better chances for showers and storms from Sunday into early next week. Another quiet evening of weather across East Central Florida. RAP analysis indicates an initial surge of drier air is sweeping southward into the area, leading to more comfortable humidity for the end of May. However, a bit of moisture remains trapped near the top of the PBL, which could be enough to spark a few onshore- moving sprinkles overnight near the coast. Additional modified continental air reaches the district Saturday, leading to a mainly dry forecast. The exception to this will be the southern Treasure Coast where PW values remain just high enough to support 20% shower/storm chances in the afternoon. Sprawling high pressure continues to pass by to our north. As it does, expect continued breezy conditions near the coast overnight, holding temperatures in the mid/upper 70s along and east of US-1. Elsewhere, upper 60s/low 70s will be commonplace. East breezes will likely gust from 15-25 mph again on Saturday. Highs will warm into the mid 80s beachside to near 90 from the Kissimmee Basin into Lake County. You will find patchy smoke in the digital forecast south of Holopaw (Osceola Co) and near Palm City (Martin Co) due to nearby wildfires. This may cause locally reduced visibility; slow down and increase following distance if you encounter smoke while driving. Breezy and dry conditions could cause any active fires to quickly spread on Saturday. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Overnight...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for all local waters from Brevard Co southward as winds are freshening due to a tightening pressure gradient. ENE winds 15-20 KT with seas building to 3-5 FT nearshore, 4-6 FT offshore. Slight chance for a shower. Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv (SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon and 2-3 ft Tue. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Through Friday) Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place, there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure coast. Models are trying to hint at a little moisture even pushing further northwestward on Sun, but remain skeptical. Max temps will be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower 90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-40 percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue- Thu. Temperatures will also begin a slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR continues with steady northeast winds becoming easterly on Saturday. Gusts 15-25 KT will diminish overnight before resuming during the day on Saturday. A few BKN cloud bases to around 4 KFT possible along the Treasure Coast by later Saturday afternoon (after 20Z). && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue into the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and lightning storm chances will remain below normal through the weekend. The best chance for convection will be along the Treasure Coast. Min RH values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The increase in wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will produce very sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat across all of east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly. Scattered showers and storms should gradually increase in coverage next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 85 71 86 / 0 0 10 20 MCO 72 87 70 88 / 0 10 10 40 MLB 76 85 74 85 / 0 10 20 30 VRB 76 86 73 86 / 0 10 20 40 LEE 70 89 69 90 / 0 10 10 30 SFB 70 88 69 90 / 0 0 10 30 ORL 72 88 71 89 / 0 10 10 30 FPR 74 86 72 85 / 0 20 30 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ552-572. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ555-575. && $$ |
