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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1182712 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A broad upper trough will cross the Southeast States on Sunday, bringing a high coverage of pop-up afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build in over the course of Monday and Tuesday, diminishing the convective coverage to isolated for Tuesday and Wednesday. The tail end of a cold front will brush by on Thursday night and Friday, with an increase to scattered coverage. A drier air mass and elimination of thunder chances will follow next weekend. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker mid and upper level shortwave trough looks to pass through the deep south on Sunday, which will provide the main focus for shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Overall the highest rain chances are around 50-70% across the Tri-state area with deep tropical moisture remaining in place. Thunderstorm development looks to be a more traditional June summer convective day, with storm initiation expected later in the afternoon and evening as the day heats up. PWATs will generally be in the 1.6-1.8 inch range, which is enough to produce extremely efficient rainfall rates across the region. Given these values, there will be a threat for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that become quasi- stationary over the same areas for extended periods of time. Along with the threat for localized flash flooding, a few storms could produce strong gusty winds with more vigorous downbursts that develop. This will partially be aided by DCAPE values in the 800- 1000 J/Kg range tomorrow. Thunderstorms should quickly diminish within 1-2 hours of sunset Sunday evening. Look for low temperatures in the morning look to generally fall into the upper 60s areawide. High temperatures look to climb into the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The broad upper trough that will move across the Southeast States on Sunday will start to exit off to the east on Sunday night. Weak upper ridging will build in from the west on Monday and Monday night. Our 500 mb flow will transition from cyclonic to anti- cyclonic, and weak surface high pressure will develop and drop anchor over the northeast Gulf. Against this backdrop, modest mid- level drying will reduce convective coverage on Monday, compared with Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A drier pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will prevail. The upper pattern will amplify, with a strong upper high developing over the Southern U.S. Rockies and Southern High Plains, resulting in downstream NW flow aloft across the Tri-State area. Meanwhile, a bubble of weak surface high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf into Thursday. Surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s, except low 70s at the coast. The drier mid-level air mass will amount to Precipitable Water (PW) values bouncing around in the marginal 1.4 to 1.6 inch range. From late Thursday through Saturday, the northwest flow aloft will try to push a cold front into the Southeast States. It looks like the tail end of the front could brush by the forecast area. The forecast acknowledges this with a modest increase to scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Ensemble means only increase PW values a little in advance of the front, so scattered coverage should do it for now. After the front brushes by, a drier air mass should arrive. Surface dewpoints should more squarely fall into the 60s, with 50s possible over AL/GA. Though ensemble plumes show a large range of possible PW values next weekend, the ensemble mean dries into the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range. This would lead to convective shutdown next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Moderate showers with occasional rumbles of thunder recently ended at DHN and ECP. ABY and TLH look to remain dry enough that only vicinity showers on the eastern edge of the precipitation shield will impact those two terminals. VLD looks to remain dry through the period. Both ABY and TLH look to remain VFR through the period, with showers and thunderstorms likely developing at all terminals tomorrow afternoon. With low confidence at this time, it is too soon to include in the TAF lines. The MVFR to LIFR conditions at ECP should similarly diminish in the next couple of hours as heavy to moderate rain comes to an end. VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period for ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Earlier today, Buoy 42036 observed 7-foot wave heights with a southeasterly wave direction. The buoy is down to observing 5-foot wave heights, but those higher waves will take into this evening to traverse the northeast Gulf waters. In general, winds and seas will be on a decreasing trend from now through Sunday afternoon, but there will take until Monday for the churned-up Gulf waters to fully respond to the improving weather. From CWF synopsis...Through Sunday morning, strong surface high pressure east of the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh southeast breezes. By Sunday afternoon, a small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf and persist through Thursday morning, supporting only light and gentle breezes. The small high pressure center will move south of the waters on Thursday, and a weak cold front will enter northern Mississippi and Alabama. So look for a freshening westerly breeze on Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dispersions look to lower across the region the next couple of days, with fair to good afternoon values forecast. This is partially due to slightly lower mixing heights expected both Sunday and Monday. Transport winds look to remain predominantly southerly to southeasterly becoming southwesterly by Monday evening. Overall there are no fire weather concerns the next couple of days; however, there is a 60-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region on Sunday. These chances look to lower on Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging settles into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Looking ahead to Sunday, a more typical summerlike scattering of afternoon thunderstorms is expected, yielding large areas with no rain, dotted with pockets that get a quick few inches of rain. These small pockets of heavy rain will be vulnerable to short- duration runoff issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage areas. However, this kind of rainfall pattern will not lead to river flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for heavy rainfall greatly diminish, so no new flooding is expected into next weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 86 68 91 / 20 70 20 40 Panama City 70 86 72 87 / 40 40 20 20 Dothan 67 86 68 88 / 50 60 20 20 Albany 68 86 67 89 / 20 70 30 30 Valdosta 70 87 67 90 / 10 60 30 40 Cross City 68 89 67 91 / 20 60 20 40 Apalachicola 74 83 73 85 / 30 50 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ750-752- 770-772. && $$ |
| #1182690 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:39 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 134 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast is mainly on track for this morning. The PoPs have been updated to better show current conditions. Showers and thunderstorms in our central time zone counties will likely continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours. The stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. The cluster of storms is expected to slowly move eastward towards the Apalachicola Basin this morning before dropping southward into the Gulf. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature, shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day, higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing instability. As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area, curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor. Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place, especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3 inches is possible with locally higher amounts. Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two- thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to Sunday`s forecast. If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows near 70. By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures will still remain hot. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 moderate Showers with occasional rumbles of thunder look to continue at DHN and ECP for another hour or two before dissipating across the region. ABY and TLH look to remain dry enough that only vicinity showers on the eastern edge of the precipitation shield will impact those two terminals. VLD looks to remain dry through the period. Both ABY and TLH look to remain VFR through the period, with showers and thunderstorms likely developing at all terminals tomorrow afternoon. With low confidence at this time, it is too soon to include in the TAF lines. The MVFR to LIFR conditions at ECP should similarly diminish in the next couple of hours as heavy to moderate rain comes to an end. VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period for ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this afternoon or evening. In our western waters, showers and thunderstorms (some will be strong) will be driving up winds and seas. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt have been evident this morning and isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Buoy 42036 has seen waves approaching 7 feet this morning, which is a good implication for the Small Craft Advisory needing to continue into the afternoon. Seas will then begin to settle from 3 to 6 feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today, winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas. Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75 corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and dispersions appear favorable today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4). Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But, locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish. Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 86 69 90 / 20 60 10 30 Panama City 72 85 72 87 / 30 50 10 20 Dothan 67 85 69 88 / 30 60 10 20 Albany 68 86 68 88 / 30 50 10 20 Valdosta 67 87 68 90 / 20 40 10 30 Cross City 67 89 68 91 / 10 40 10 30 Apalachicola 74 84 73 86 / 30 50 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1182673 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:24 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1011 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast is mainly on track for this morning. The PoPs have been updated to better show current conditions. Showers and thunderstorms in our central time zone counties will likely continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon hours. The stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. The cluster of storms is expected to slowly move eastward towards the Apalachicola Basin this morning before dropping southward into the Gulf. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature, shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day, higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing instability. As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area, curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor. Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place, especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3 inches is possible with locally higher amounts. Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two- thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to Sunday`s forecast. If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows near 70. By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures will still remain hot. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection continues over south Alabama with a slow eastward progression anticipated through the morning and early afternoon hours. TAFs were kept mostly the same but added VCSH at ECP beginning at 12Z as some SHRA activity has been moving in and out of the aerodrome. Used a variety of CAM guidance for timing of convection into DHN/ECP with a PROB30 remaining at TLH for TSRA this afternoon. Confidence remains on the lower side for TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this afternoon or evening. In our western waters, showers and thunderstorms (some will be strong) will be driving up winds and seas. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt have been evident this morning and isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Buoy 42036 has seen waves approaching 7 feet this morning, which is a good implication for the Small Craft Advisory needing to continue into the afternoon. Seas will then begin to settle from 3 to 6 feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today, winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas. Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75 corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and dispersions appear favorable today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4). Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But, locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish. Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 70 86 69 / 30 20 60 10 Panama City 82 72 85 72 / 80 30 50 10 Dothan 82 67 85 69 / 70 30 60 10 Albany 86 68 86 68 / 40 30 50 10 Valdosta 88 67 87 68 / 10 20 40 10 Cross City 91 67 89 68 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 83 74 84 73 / 60 30 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730- 755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1182648 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 606 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature, shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day, higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing instability. As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area, curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor. Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place, especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3 inches is possible with locally higher amounts. Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two- thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to Sunday`s forecast. If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows near 70. By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures will still remain hot. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection continues over south Alabama with a slow eastward progression anticipated through the morning and early afternoon hours. TAFs were kept mostly the same but added VCSH at ECP beginning at 12Z as some SHRA activity has been moving in and out of the aerodrome. Used a variety of CAM guidance for timing of convection into DHN/ECP with a PROB30 remaining at TLH for TSRA this afternoon. Confidence remains on the lower side for TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this afternoon. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt are likely this morning before coming down to cautionary or lower this afternoon. Isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Seas will likewise begin to settle from 3 to 5 feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today, winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas. Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75 corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and dispersions appear favorable today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4). Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But, locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish. Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 70 86 69 / 30 20 60 10 Panama City 82 72 85 72 / 70 30 50 10 Dothan 82 67 85 69 / 70 30 60 10 Albany 86 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 10 Valdosta 88 67 87 68 / 20 20 40 10 Cross City 91 67 89 68 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 83 74 84 73 / 60 30 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1182627 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 320 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A well defined shortwave trough extends southeast through the Mid South towards the northern Gulf coast. East of this feature, shortwave ridging is located across the Florida peninsula north towards the southern Appalachians. These two feature will slowly work eastward today. As the trough moves closer through the day, higher moisture content and PWATs will also move east as the 1.8 to nearly 2 inch PWATs edge out the drier 1.2 PWATs associated with the ridge moves east. Showers and thunderstorms are on the increase in southern Alabama closer to the trough where the higher PWATs are currently located and aided by diffluence aloft and increasing instability. As the morning moves along, expect these bands of convection to move into or develop over our western Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama areas. This is where our highest rain chances are located through the morning into early afternoon hours. Instability will increase this morning in this area and although the deep layer shear is on the weaker side, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible and SPC continues the marginal risk for severe weather across our central time zone counties. Further east of this area, curtailed rain chances sharply in line with recent CAMs showing a possible weakening trend and trajectory into the Gulf waters of this line/bands of convection with slight chance towards the I75 corridor. Heavy rain could also be a concern as the morning goes, especially if convective banding sets up and training of storms takes place, especially in coastal sections of Walton and Bay counties. Reference hydro section for specificity of rainfall amounts but generally 1-3 inches is possible with locally higher amounts. Due to the increase clouds and rain coverage, dropped highs several degrees today and in line with MOS guidance west of Albany/Tallahassee line and common highs will be in the low 80s as compared to mid/upper 80s further east where some sun will persist into the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker shortwave passes through the area on Sunday, bringing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chance for showers and storms (50-70%) will be over the western two- thirds of the area with lower chances (30-40%) closer to the Suwannee River and I-75. However, tomorrow`s storm evolution will greatly depend on where the outflow boundaries from today`s storms ultimately set up. Some of the hi-res guidance suggests this could be closer to closer to Apalachee Bay where the higher rain chances end up. Will monitor trends to see how much adjustment is needed to Sunday`s forecast. If storms do get going on Sunday, then there is the potential for some locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. Instability will be sufficient, and we`ll have about 20 kt of deep layer shear, which is enough for summertime convection to become strong. Additionally, PWATs will still be in the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range, which could result in efficient rain producers Sunday afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be in the middle to upper 80s with lows near 70. By Monday, we`ll return to a more diurnal pattern with ridging starting to nose its way into our area. Thus, most storms will be along the sea breeze. Highs will climb back in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Ridging starts to take over the southeast US Tuesday and Wednesday before more troughing returns for late in the week. This ridging will help keep a lid on most storms, and the best rain chances will generally shift to the eastern parts of our area where the Nature Coast sea breeze will collide with the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. High temperatures will climb back toward the lower to middle 90s with heat index values of 99 to 105. Lows will also climb into the lower to middle 70s. As troughing develops over the eastern US late in the week, a cold front will approach our area. This will lead to increasing rain chances Thursday into Friday, though temperatures will still remain hot. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 SHRA/TSRA is expected to increase in coverage across southern Alabama in the overnight hours then approach DHN/ECP in the morning hours from 14-20Z. Strong winds and heavy rainfall resulting in tempo MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible during this time frame. Further east, it may make it into TLH in the late afternoon hours but will be on a weakening trend by the time it arrives. Added a PROB30 to account for this at TLH. At ABY/VLD, convection will either be located south of ABY through the day or dissipate west of VLD to keep conditions VFR and no mention of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The strong southeasterly nocturnal surge from overnight will continue through mid to late morning before subsiding this afternoon. Advisory level winds with gusts of 30 kt are likely this morning before coming down to cautionary or lower this afternoon. Isolated gusts up to 35 kt are possible. Seas will likewise begin to settle from 3 to 5 feet today back to 1 to 3 feet from Sunday onward. Beyond today, winds will generally remain light out of the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon hours, especially west of Tallahassee and Albany areas into the southeast Alabama and western Florida panhandle areas. Showers have developed already early this morning across portions of these areas and will continue as a mid level disturbance approaches the region. Low chances for rain exist further east towards the I75 corridor but the probability is low. A mix of sun and clouds is expected through the day outside of rain. Transport winds and dispersions appear favorable today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Locally heavy rainfall is possible over the far western Florida Panhandle today, possibly extending up into the Wiregrass of southeast Alabama. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the Central Time Zone counties with the highest amounts near the coast and especially to the west of our forecast area. Some localized totals of 3 to 6 inches cannot be ruled out, especially where we see training bands of thunderstorms. This could result in some localized flash flooding, especially this morning and afternoon. While the better signal is certainly off to our west, we can`t entirely rule out some higher-end rainfall in coastal parts of Walton and Bay Counties. Our Central Time Zone counties are in a Marginal to Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4). Abundant moisture remains in place across the area on Sunday as well, though the signal for training storms is not as defined. But, locally heavy downpours certainly cannot be ruled out, which could cause some nuisance flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for widespread heavy rainfall greatly diminish. Our river systems should remain relatively unscathed by this rainfall as the heaviest will likely fall near the mouth of the Choctawhatchee River. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 70 86 69 / 30 20 60 10 Panama City 82 72 85 72 / 70 30 50 10 Dothan 82 67 85 69 / 70 30 60 10 Albany 86 68 86 68 / 30 30 50 10 Valdosta 88 67 87 68 / 20 20 40 10 Cross City 91 67 89 68 / 20 10 40 10 Apalachicola 83 74 84 73 / 60 30 50 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1182610 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 126 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 The main update to tonight`s forecast was fine-tuning rain chances based on current trends. Evening vapor imagery shows a well- defined shortwave trough moving towards the MS/TN Valley forcing an area of showers and thunderstorms just to the west of our service area. Remnant outflow boundaries from this preceding convection aims to be a focus for redevelopment of thunderstorm clusters (some of which could be strong to severe) into the western FL Panhandle and parts of SE AL by daybreak. The main threats are strong/gusty winds with isolated severe gusts possible. Locally heavy rain is an additional concern. Hi- resolution models and CAMs are in good agreement on the spatial/temporal coverage. Quiet weather should prevail mainly east of the Apalachicola River should where ridging influence is more prominent. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will continue pushing across the local area through the period. This ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic. Subsidence from this ridge should keep PoPs low for the remainder of the day and into the evening hours, although a few isolated sea breeze showers/storms cannot be ruled out. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few locations over the Florida Panhandle reaching the mid 90s. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with several shortwave impulses riding along the base of the trough. The best large-scale forcing should remain to the west of the local area due to the presence of the nearby ridge, however, maintained 20-30% PoPs for locations over southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle to account for the uncertainty of how far east the storms will develop during the overnight hours. The main wave of showers and storms is expected to move into the region Saturday morning and into the afternoon hours as the ridge continues its eastward progression and the shortwave trough moves into the Tennessee River Valley. Highest convective coverage should remain confined to the western half of the region, as the eastern half remains under the influence of the ridge. Ongoing storms over Alabama/Mississippi should begin to organize into multicellular clusters and eventually into an MCS as deep-layer shear begins to increase and punch into the developing storms. CAPE values should also generally increase to around 1500 to 2500 J/kg during the morning as well. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the Central Time Zone counties. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to the north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s over the west due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover, and the mid to upper 80s, to around 90 for the eastern half of the region. /96 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the western Atlantic during the period, with a series of shortwaves meanwhile progressing across the area. A surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75 inches slowly increasing to 1.75-2.0 inches. For Saturday night, have gone with dry conditions over the eastern portion of the area with slight chance to chance pops over the western portion. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as deep layer moisture gradually improves along with a continuing series of shortwaves moving across the area. Mostly slight chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves look to weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night through Monday night typically range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night, although there is the potential for the front to stall near the coast. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through Thursday, then drier air works into the area on Friday with precipitable water values looking to drop to 1.2-1.7 inches, with the lower values over interior areas. Forcing looks to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with mostly slight chance pops. Slight chance to chance pops follow for most of the area on Thursday and Friday as the front approaches and moves into, possibly through the area. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 SHRA/TSRA is expected to increase in coverage across southern Alabama in the overnight hours then approach DHN/ECP in the morning hours from 14-20Z. Strong winds and heavy rainfall resulting in tempo MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible during this time frame. Further east, it may make it into TLH in the late afternoon hours but will be on a weakening trend by the time it arrives. Added a PROB30 to account for this at TLH. At ABY/VLD, convection will either be located south of ABY through the day or dissipate west of VLD to keep conditions VFR and no mention of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting light east to SE winds with 2-3 ft seas and a dominant period of 5 sec this evening. Forecast marine winds were increased overnight by using a blend of the CAMS/HRRR, which show solid 20 to 22+ kts of surging easterly winds starting at Apalachee Bay around 3Z, then spreading west towards the remaining waters as we approach dawn. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 15Z. From CWF Synopsis...Winds become predominately southeasterly and strengthen overnight to advisory levels via an easterly nocturnal surge then diminish on Saturday. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow prevails for Sunday through Tuesday, then a southwesterly flow develops on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through Saturday, mainly over the northeast Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Isolated to numerous showers and storms are expected on Saturday, with the higher coverage generally over south central Alabama and portions of the western Florida panhandle. Afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels. Transport winds will be mostly southeasterly Saturday and southerly on Sunday. Dispersion index values will be generally good to good on Saturday and fair to generally good Sunday. /29 && .HYDROLOGY... && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 89 69 91 / 10 40 10 20 Panama City 72 86 72 87 / 30 50 10 20 Dothan 67 87 69 89 / 20 50 10 20 Albany 68 87 68 89 / 10 40 10 20 Valdosta 67 89 68 91 / 10 30 10 20 Cross City 67 91 68 92 / 10 20 10 20 Apalachicola 74 84 73 86 / 20 40 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1182596 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 947 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 The main update to tonight`s forecast was fine-tuning rain chances based on current trends. Evening vapor imagery shows a well- defined shortwave trough moving towards the MS/TN Valley forcing an area of showers and thunderstorms just to the west of our service area. Remnant outflow boundaries from this preceding convection aims to be a focus for redevelopment of thunderstorm clusters (some of which could be strong to severe) into the western FL Panhandle and parts of SE AL by daybreak. The main threats are strong/gusty winds with isolated severe gusts possible. Locally heavy rain is an additional concern. Hi- resolution models and CAMs are in good agreement on the spatial/temporal coverage. Quiet weather should prevail mainly east of the Apalachicola River should where ridging influence is more prominent. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will continue pushing across the local area through the period. This ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic. Subsidence from this ridge should keep PoPs low for the remainder of the day and into the evening hours, although a few isolated sea breeze showers/storms cannot be ruled out. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few locations over the Florida Panhandle reaching the mid 90s. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with several shortwave impulses riding along the base of the trough. The best large-scale forcing should remain to the west of the local area due to the presence of the nearby ridge, however, maintained 20-30% PoPs for locations over southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle to account for the uncertainty of how far east the storms will develop during the overnight hours. The main wave of showers and storms is expected to move into the region Saturday morning and into the afternoon hours as the ridge continues its eastward progression and the shortwave trough moves into the Tennessee River Valley. Highest convective coverage should remain confined to the western half of the region, as the eastern half remains under the influence of the ridge. Ongoing storms over Alabama/Mississippi should begin to organize into multicellular clusters and eventually into an MCS as deep-layer shear begins to increase and punch into the developing storms. CAPE values should also generally increase to around 1500 to 2500 J/kg during the morning as well. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the Central Time Zone counties. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to the north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s over the west due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover, and the mid to upper 80s, to around 90 for the eastern half of the region. /96 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the western Atlantic during the period, with a series of shortwaves meanwhile progressing across the area. A surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75 inches slowly increasing to 1.75-2.0 inches. For Saturday night, have gone with dry conditions over the eastern portion of the area with slight chance to chance pops over the western portion. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as deep layer moisture gradually improves along with a continuing series of shortwaves moving across the area. Mostly slight chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves look to weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night through Monday night typically range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night, although there is the potential for the front to stall near the coast. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through Thursday, then drier air works into the area on Friday with precipitable water values looking to drop to 1.2-1.7 inches, with the lower values over interior areas. Forcing looks to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with mostly slight chance pops. Slight chance to chance pops follow for most of the area on Thursday and Friday as the front approaches and moves into, possibly through the area. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail at ABY, TLH, and VLD thru the period. SHRA with embedded TSRA will approach DHN and ECP by late Saturday morning and persist into the early evening with cigs down to MVFR. Cigs should improve Saturday evening as precip coverage decreases. Winds SE around 10 kts, except southerly at ECP late. && .MARINE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Offshore buoys were reporting light east to SE winds with 2-3 ft seas and a dominant period of 5 sec this evening. Forecast marine winds were increased overnight by using a blend of the CAMS/HRRR, which show solid 20 to 22+ kts of surging easterly winds starting at Apalachee Bay around 3Z, then spreading west towards the remaining waters as we approach dawn. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 15Z. From CWF Synopsis...Winds become predominately southeasterly and strengthen overnight to advisory levels via an easterly nocturnal surge then diminish on Saturday. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow prevails for Sunday through Tuesday, then a southwesterly flow develops on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through Saturday, mainly over the northeast Gulf waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Isolated to numerous showers and storms are expected on Saturday, with the higher coverage generally over south central Alabama and portions of the western Florida panhandle. Afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels. Transport winds will be mostly southeasterly Saturday and southerly on Sunday. Dispersion index values will be generally good to good on Saturday and fair to generally good Sunday. /29 && .HYDROLOGY... && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 87 70 89 / 10 30 10 40 Panama City 73 85 72 86 / 50 70 30 50 Dothan 68 84 67 87 / 30 50 20 50 Albany 67 84 68 87 / 0 20 10 40 Valdosta 64 88 67 89 / 0 10 10 30 Cross City 65 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 20 Apalachicola 75 84 74 84 / 30 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1182585 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 755 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Upper-level ridging, currently near the AL/GA border, will continue pushing across the local area through the period. This ridge will strengthen and become more amplified late tonight and into tomorrow as it approaches and moves into the western Atlantic. Subsidence from this ridge should keep PoPs low for the remainder of the day and into the evening hours, although a few isolated sea breeze showers/storms cannot be ruled out. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with a few locations over the Florida Panhandle reaching the mid 90s. As we head into tonight, a shortwave trough is expected to move into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, with several shortwave impulses riding along the base of the trough. The best large-scale forcing should remain to the west of the local area due to the presence of the nearby ridge, however, maintained 20-30% PoPs for locations over southeast Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle to account for the uncertainty of how far east the storms will develop during the overnight hours. The main wave of showers and storms is expected to move into the region Saturday morning and into the afternoon hours as the ridge continues its eastward progression and the shortwave trough moves into the Tennessee River Valley. Highest convective coverage should remain confined to the western half of the region, as the eastern half remains under the influence of the ridge. Ongoing storms over Alabama/Mississippi should begin to organize into multicellular clusters and eventually into an MCS as deep-layer shear begins to increase and punch into the developing storms. CAPE values should also generally increase to around 1500 to 2500 J/kg during the morning as well. Therefore, cannot rule out storms capable of producing severe winds in excess of 60 mph. Due to this risk, a marginal risk of severe storms is in place across the Central Time Zone counties. At this point, due to the developing LLJ remaining well to the north (and therefore weak low level shear in place), no tornadoes are expected. Additionally, storms will also be capable of producing high rainfall rates which could lead to some localized or nuisance type flooding especially given the high PWATs and slower storm motions. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 80s over the west due to the widespread rainfall and cloud cover, and the mid to upper 80s, to around 90 for the eastern half of the region. /96 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof which extends from near the Great Lakes to the north central Gulf coast gradually weakens while continuing into the western Atlantic during the period, with a series of shortwaves meanwhile progressing across the area. A surface ridge over the southeastern states weakens through Monday night but nevertheless maintains a moist southerly flow over the forecast area, with precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75 inches slowly increasing to 1.75-2.0 inches. For Saturday night, have gone with dry conditions over the eastern portion of the area with slight chance to chance pops over the western portion. Chance to likely pops follow for Sunday as deep layer moisture gradually improves along with a continuing series of shortwaves moving across the area. Mostly slight chance pops follow for Monday as the series of shortwaves look to weaken. May see a few strong storms develop early Saturday evening. Lows Saturday night through Monday night typically range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid to upper 80s and highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A high risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday night through Monday. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 An upper trof over the northern and central Plains steadily amplifies while spreading into the eastern states, and an associated surface low passes well to the north and brings a weak cold front through the forecast area Thursday night, although there is the potential for the front to stall near the coast. Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place over the forecast area through Thursday, then drier air works into the area on Friday with precipitable water values looking to drop to 1.2-1.7 inches, with the lower values over interior areas. Forcing looks to be limited over the area Tuesday and Wednesday so have gone with mostly slight chance pops. Slight chance to chance pops follow for most of the area on Thursday and Friday as the front approaches and moves into, possibly through the area. /29 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail at ABY, TLH, and VLD thru the period. SHRA with embedded TSRA will approach DHN and ECP by late Saturday morning and persist into the early evening with cigs down to MVFR. Cigs should improve Saturday evening as precip coverage decreases. Winds SE around 10 kts, except southerly at ECP late. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Winds become predominately southeasterly and strengthen tonight then diminish on Saturday. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly flow prevails for Sunday through Tuesday, then a southwesterly flow develops on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times late tonight through Saturday, mainly over the northeast Gulf waters. /29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Isolated to numerous showers and storms are expected on Saturday, with the higher coverage generally over south central Alabama and portions of the western Florida panhandle. Afternoon relative humidity values remain above critical levels. Transport winds will be mostly southeasterly Saturday and southerly on Sunday. Dispersion index values will be generally good to good on Saturday and fair to generally good Sunday. /29 && .HYDROLOGY... && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 93 70 88 69 / 20 10 30 10 Panama City 92 75 85 72 / 20 30 70 30 Dothan 90 69 85 68 / 20 20 50 20 Albany 89 67 87 67 / 10 0 20 10 Valdosta 90 66 89 67 / 10 0 10 10 Cross City 93 66 91 67 / 20 0 10 10 Apalachicola 86 77 84 74 / 10 20 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Saturday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ this evening to 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765- 770-772-775. && $$ |
