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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1182696 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 152 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 We are seeing some breezier easterly today as high pressure in the Mid Atlantic states nudges a little farther south increasing our pressure gradient. This has helped to increase our easterly winds which has resulted in slightly cooler air compared to our work week. However, the high pressure is also giving us more subsidence which in turn will keep showers very limited across the area. As we go through our Sunday the high start to push into the Atlantic on the surface while a weak upper level trough looks to push over the area. This will cause our moisture to increase and give us more lift which in turn will increase our afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms chances. Right now it looks like Sunday might be our best chance of rain in the next 7 days. The upper level energy will exit the area by Monday however with the high pressure in the Atlantic moving even farther way we will see an increase in moisture and a more typical seabreeze pattern setting up. However coverage of storms do look a little less they what we are use to seeing during the summer months with PoPs hovering around 30 to 40 percent each day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly easterly winds that will gust up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Conditions will be drier today so kept thunderstorms out of the TAFs however a shower or two can not be ruled out in Southwest Florida Terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Strong ridging over the area will once again cause nightly increase in winds tonight with 15 to 20 knots possible across the Gulf. We will see those winds decrease once again in the afternoon tomorrow but continue out of the east. Ridging will move farther way for our work week which will result in winds generally staying at or below 10 knots out of the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Windy and dry conditions continue today, however we will see some increase in moisture and higher rain shower chances for Sunday and into early next week. RH will slowly rise and we should stay above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 74 91 75 / 20 20 40 20 FMY 94 72 93 73 / 20 20 60 40 GIF 90 69 92 72 / 10 0 50 10 SRQ 93 71 91 73 / 20 20 40 30 BKV 92 68 91 67 / 10 10 40 20 SPG 91 77 90 77 / 20 20 40 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182668 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 934 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Slightly drier air today will keep shower chances low today and keep mostly sunny skies. However a strong easterly breeze will help to keep things a few degrees cooler today compared to the last few days. && .DISCUSSION... Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic early next week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper trough moving overhead. Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal for early June in FL. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly easterly winds that will gust up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Conditions will be drier today so kept thunderstorms out of the TAFs however a shower or two can not be ruled out in Southwest Florida Terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the afternoon seabreeze returning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 50 20 FMY 94 72 94 73 / 20 20 80 40 GIF 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 60 10 SRQ 93 71 95 74 / 20 20 50 30 BKV 92 68 94 67 / 10 10 50 20 SPG 91 77 92 78 / 20 20 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182662 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:03 PM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 757 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic early next week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper trough moving overhead. Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal for early June in FL. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 755 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly easterly winds that will gust up to 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Conditions will be drier today so kept thunderstorms out of the TAFs however a shower or two can not be ruled out in Southwest Florida Terminals. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the afternoon seabreeze returning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 74 93 75 / 20 20 50 20 FMY 94 72 94 73 / 20 20 80 40 GIF 91 70 93 72 / 10 10 60 10 SRQ 93 71 95 74 / 20 20 50 30 BKV 92 68 94 67 / 10 10 50 20 SPG 91 77 92 78 / 20 20 50 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182620 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Upper ridging that has been over the region is weakening as an upper shortwave moves through the MS River Valley today then moves over the FL Peninsula Sunday before moving into the W Atlantic early next week. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic states this morning will move into the W Atlantic by Sunday but the moderately tight pressure gradient will keep the occasionally gusty conditions in place with hot and mainly dry conditions today. With upper ridging and subsidence today expect fairly low rain chances limited to SW FL coastal areas with late afternoon seabreeze pinned to the coast. Rain chances increase areawide Sunday with additional upper energy associated with the upper trough moving overhead. Next week moisture is expected to increase as Bermuda high pressure weakens and remains over the area with daytime heating and scattered seabreeze convection daily. Increased humidity will also bring higher heat index values to the area but this is normal for early June in FL. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions expected most terminals today with occasionally gusty easterly winds then trying to seabreeze pinned to the coast late this afternoon. Diurnal seabreeze towering cumulus and mainly ISOLD TSRA possible in SW FL late this afternoon into evening hrs but with lower confidence have left mention and flight restrictions out at this time. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds and elevated seas especially during the evening into overnight easterly surges with exercise caution headlines. High pressure weakens next week with winds and seas subsiding and the afternoon seabreeze returning. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will remain north of the area through the weekend with occasionally gusty easterly winds, high dispersion values, hot temperatures and marginally low afternoon RH values. Isolated to scattered afternoon into evening showers and thunderstorm will be possible daily as well. Winds lighten early next week with the afternoon seabreeze returning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 74 92 75 / 20 20 40 20 FMY 94 73 94 73 / 30 20 70 40 GIF 91 70 92 71 / 10 10 40 20 SRQ 94 73 95 73 / 20 20 40 30 BKV 92 65 94 67 / 10 10 30 20 SPG 91 77 92 77 / 20 20 40 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182588 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 01.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 826 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Current forecast remains on track requiring no changes. A few early evening showers and storms remain out there, mainly near and to the west of the Tampa Bay area, as well as near Charlotte Harbor and areas just offshore south of Sanibel in Lee County. Despite some activity still developing, overall waning trend should set in by late evening with partly cloudy skies overnight. Trends favor slightly drier and cooler conditions for Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 90s and highest rain chances confined primarily to SWFL. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Conditions look very similiar to yesterday with it being dry and hot through the afternoon hours with some possible showers and storms mainly in Southwest. The focus of showers and storms in SW Florida is due to slight higher PWs in the area. Drier air will start to settle into the area tomorrow which will keep the majority of the forecast area dry but an isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out. Even though we will be drier a strong easterly wind will help to keep temperatures slightly cool with inland areas actually a few degrees cooler then areas along the coast. By Sunday and into next week moisture will increase and this will help to increase shower chance. Even though we might all see some kind of shower activity as we go through next week we are not expecting any widespread activity which means the drought conditions are expected to stick around. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Early evening convection potentially impacting TPA/PIE and PGD with brief restrictions possible will give way to VFR through the remainder of the period. Easterly winds likely, 5-10 knots through late morning then increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts through the afternoon before diminishing during the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Winds are expected to increase overnight out of the east which will give us some exercise caution in the Gulf. These winds will start to calm down slightly but continue to stay out of the east for our Saturday. Once again winds will pick up Saturday night into Sunday morning with exercise caution expected once again before calming down Sunday afternoon. For next week wind tend to stay light and variable each night before increasing around 10 knots out of the east in the afternoon and evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Drier air continues to stick around every afternoon through the weekend and early next week. However, we should stay above critical RH levels and expected isolated shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 93 74 92 / 20 20 10 40 FMY 71 94 73 94 / 40 30 20 70 GIF 70 91 70 92 / 10 10 0 40 SRQ 70 94 73 95 / 40 20 20 40 BKV 66 92 65 94 / 10 10 10 30 SPG 76 91 77 92 / 30 20 20 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
