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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1180628 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 18.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 901 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1AM... ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A Tornado Watch will be in effect until 1 AM for areas north of the I-10 corridor west of the JAX metro area and as the Suwannee Valley Region in NE FL, and spanning northward into SE GA towards Waycross, GA. Aside from tornadoes, wind gusts of up to 70 mph will be possible as well as large hail. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Another round of thunderstorms will impact the area this evening, primarily north of I-10. Convective models had a hard time pin- pointing the timing, but as of now it looks like storms will be entering the interior SE GA counties around 7-8pm, with things fizzling out just after midnight. With the sun peaking out of the clouds, enough instability will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening, with the primary hazards being damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado and heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Heavy cloud cover and southerly flow overnight will keep mild lows in the lower 70s. Patchy fog will be possible over north central Florida early Saturday morning given calm winds and increased moisture. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A frontal boundary will be just to our north Saturday morning while a trough of low pressure aloft moving over the region. CAM models suggest a organized cluster of storms will moving west to east from AL, FL panhandle, and south GA, but differ substantially on the timing. The HRRR brings in convection fairly early during the day but in general the HREF suggests more of a midday arrival. There is more than sufficient instability available and 0-6 km shear generally in the 40-50 kt range. The convection, if it develops earlier in the day, may allow for a quieter afternoon as the airmass will be overturned from the convection. Overall confidence is low to moderate on the timing. There is a risk of some of these storms to become severe given the combination of shear and instability. We can`t rule out an isolated tornado threat. Further south away from the front, southwest winds will be gusty at 15G25mph. Max temps could top out in the lower 90s over areas of northeast FL with resultant heat indices near 100. The front looks to bisect the forecast area Saturday evening from southwest to northeast then continue to sag southward as mid level troughing digs southeast into the region. This will continue to support elevated rain chances Saturday night. Sunday, the front looks positioned over parts of northeast FL with scattered to numerous showers and storms still possible, as upper level vort lobe swings over the area. We continued high POPs still at about 60-70 percent, which may be a little generous. Chance of showers and a few storms lingers as a surface trough/reinforcing front pushes through from north to south. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A relatively benign weather pattern looks in store for most of this period with mainly dry post-frontal airmass dominating. There may be a few lingering showers or a storm southern most areas Monday before the front clears the area to the south. The nose of sfc high pressure then expected to persist across the Carolinas and GA before moving over our forecast area Wed and Thu. Another cold frontal boundary will then move into the southeast states, possibly into north GA by Thursday. Will have some low POPs for southern zones on Monday but at most 10-20 percent chances rest of the period. The cooler airmass immediately behind the front Mon and Tue and the northeast low level flow will let highs be in the 80s, with about 80 or so at the coast due to northeast winds. However, temps ramp up again Wed and Thu to upper 80s and lower 90s as high pressure will be over the area and upper level ridge will near us. For now on Friday, just slight rain chances with persistent warming temps in the lower to mid 90s, with the weak cold front likely remaining to the north still. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 900 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Rain will move into the area through the early evening hours affecting mainly the northern TAF sites during the early part of the TAF period, clearing out a bit past midnight. The next round of showers and storms will look to get going during the afternoon tomorrow, with timing still uncertain. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Weak high pressure will linger rest of today before a weak area of low pressure lifts to the north tonight. A warm front will push north over the area waters. A slow moving cold front trailing the low will gradually push across the water late Saturday through Sunday, renewing chances for thunderstorms. Winds will turn northerly as high pressure wedges against a low pressure situated northeast of the waters early next week. At this time, confidence in any small craft advisory is low from northerly flow. High pressure builds directly over the waters during the middle part of next week. Rip Currents: Low surf and weak winds will keep a low risk of rip currents at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 87 68 85 / 80 80 70 60 SSI 73 88 70 85 / 40 60 80 60 JAX 73 92 70 87 / 20 40 70 70 SGJ 73 94 70 87 / 10 30 70 80 GNV 71 91 69 86 / 0 40 70 80 OCF 73 92 71 85 / 0 30 60 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
