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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1180662 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:12 AM 18.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 207 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR expected to continue thru a majority of the TAF with coastal terminals preparing for VCTS/TSRA after 18z-20z. This morning, 08z-12z, VRB may experience MVFR VIS due to BR forming after earlier rains. Winds remain light and at times, variable, becoming SSW after 12z. The ECSB forms after 17z with winds locally backing to the SSE near coastal sites. Scattered TSRA, some strong and capable of producing IFR conditions, are forecast along the coast. However, lower confidence VCTS is possible as far inland as LEE/MCO/ISM after 18z-20z as well. Activity will dissipate and drift offshore beyond 02z. At MCO, VCSH was included as low-confidence -SHRA ahead of a cold front may approach after 09z Sun. && .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A few lightning storms have developed along the sea breeze collision this evening and are currently making their way towards the coast, where they will drift offshore into late evening. Once this activity moves offshore, dry conditions are forecast through the overnight hours. The main threats with these storms are lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning west of a line from Orlando to Lake George. However, models have backed off from any fog overnight, leading to lower confidence. Nonetheless, widespread dense fog is not expected. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida. Southeast winds at 8-14kts will veer offshore overnight. Winds will then back south-southeast into the afternoon Saturday at 10-15kts. Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore. Isolated lighting storms are forecast into this evening which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to water lighting strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast again Saturday afternoon with the potential to produce wind gusts up to 40mph and cloud to water lighting strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 93 72 86 69 / 70 30 60 30 MCO 95 75 86 71 / 40 20 60 30 MLB 91 74 89 70 / 60 40 80 50 VRB 94 73 91 69 / 60 30 80 50 LEE 92 74 85 71 / 40 50 60 20 SFB 95 74 87 70 / 50 30 60 30 ORL 95 75 87 72 / 40 20 60 30 FPR 94 72 91 69 / 60 30 80 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180636 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 18.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1011 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A few lightning storms have developed along the sea breeze collision this evening and are currently making their way towards the coast, where they will drift offshore into late evening. Once this activity moves offshore, dry conditions are forecast through the overnight hours. The main threats with these storms are lightning strikes and heavy downpours. Some patchy fog will be possible late tonight into early Saturday morning west of a line from Orlando to Lake George. However, models have backed off from any fog overnight, leading to lower confidence. Nonetheless, widespread dense fog is not expected. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid-70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 953 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Some patchy fog/low stratus will be possible from around MCO westward, but models have backed off from showing this solution, so confidence is low. For now, have left out a mention of any MVFR or lower VIS/CIGs, but this will need to be monitored overnight. A few showers and lightning storms are moving offshore from the Brevard and Treasure Coasts this evening and are forecast to diminish by around 3Z. Then, VFR conditions prevailing. Light winds overnight become westerly around 8-10kts Saturday morning, before backing south-southeastward into the afternoon along the coast, as the sea breeze develops. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast along the coast, though VCTS will be possible as far inland as MCO/ISM after around 20Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Currently-Saturday... Favorable boating conditions are forecast through Saturday as high pressure builds over the state of Florida. Southeast winds at 8-14kts will veer offshore overnight. Winds will then back south-southeast into the afternoon Saturday at 10-15kts. Seas are forecast to build to 1-2ft with up to 3ft offshore. Isolated lighting storms are forecast into this evening which will have the potential to produce gusty winds and cloud to water lighting strikes. Scattered showers and lighting storms are forecast again Saturday afternoon with the potential to produce wind gusts up to 40mph and cloud to water lighting strikes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 72 93 72 86 / 10 40 40 70 MCO 74 95 75 87 / 20 30 40 80 MLB 73 93 74 88 / 20 40 30 80 VRB 72 96 73 90 / 20 40 30 80 LEE 75 93 74 85 / 10 30 50 70 SFB 73 96 74 87 / 10 30 40 80 ORL 75 95 75 88 / 10 30 40 80 FPR 71 96 73 90 / 20 40 20 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
