Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1180672 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 AM 18.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the southeast. Ahead of it a shortwave is expected to once again push through the Panhandle and head west. The big difference from yesterday morning storms is the line looks to be a little more south but still should stay north of I-4. Timing looks to also be a little later focusing more on the early afternoon hours with severe weather possible. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the interior in the mid to upper 90`s with head index in the low to mid 100`s. The actually front looks to start pushing through the area Sunday morning with more widespread showers possible throughout much of the area during the morning and afternoon hours. We will once again be looking at an isolate severe weather threat as the front pushes through. Troughing will remain over the area for Monday and Tuesday mainly resulting in seabreeze storms in the interior during the late afternoon and evening hours. Ridging looks to return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in more subsidence and keeping us dry but hot across the area. | && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Can`t rule out a shower or two in the afternoon for TPA or PIE but chances are to low to add to TAF. Winds will starting getting gusty out the southwest starting late in the afternoon and continuing through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior part of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Cold front will be heading our way this weekend mainly bringing showers to the area on Sunday. Drier air will filter in behind the front giving some possible critical RHs on Monday in the interior south of I-4. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 86 75 / 30 40 70 20 FMY 93 78 90 76 / 10 30 50 30 GIF 94 75 88 72 / 30 40 70 20 SRQ 90 77 86 74 / 10 40 60 30 BKV 93 73 86 68 / 40 50 70 10 SPG 89 78 84 77 / 20 40 70 20 && For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180618 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 18.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 807 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 A fairly quiet late afternoon and early evening across our CWA after a very active morning. This trend should continue overnight and into the early morning, at least for most of the area. Another round of storms is possible as a boundary slowly slides over the state. There is lots of uncertainty with the timing of the showers and storms, as well as how far south will the activity make. At this time, the highest chances should be along the northern portions of the Nature Coast and interior locations of the Peninsula. However, a shower or two can`t be ruled out for areas along the I-4 corridor and north. In addition, breezy south to southwest winds are anticipated, which may help very hot afternoon highs feel a little bit less miserable as dewpoints remain in the 70s. Otherwise, no changes were made to the forecast as it remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 729 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period across terminals. However, there is a non-zero chance for MFVR ceilings that could develop during the early morning hours due to the potential for patchy fog. If this materializes, it should dissipate after sunrise. Southerly winds are expected to gradually become breezy into the afternoon hours and shifting from the southwest. Wind speeds decrease towards the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 92 78 87 / 0 20 50 80 FMY 78 94 78 91 / 0 10 30 70 GIF 75 96 75 88 / 10 30 40 80 SRQ 77 93 76 89 / 0 10 40 70 BKV 72 93 72 86 / 0 30 50 80 SPG 81 89 79 86 / 0 20 50 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
