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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1184040 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 PM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary that was situated near the FL/GA border. Aloft...deep troughing continues to dig over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging in place from the Southern Plains northward through the Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, cutoff troughing was located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that the much anticipated surge of deep tropical moisture is nudging into north central FL, with PWATS of around 2 inches in place along the Interstate 4 corridor, while values elsewhere across our region remaining around or just below 1.5 inches, which is below climatology for June 11th. Southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of the tropical moisture surge are developing low-topped convection along the Nature coast, with a few showers also developing over Marion County. Otherwise, low stratus ceilings were developing for locations near the Altamaha River in southeast GA following late evening convection, while mostly mid and high altitude cloudiness in place elsewhere across our region. Temperatures were in the 70s for inland locations as of 08Z, ranging to around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints generally ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Troughing over the eastern U.S. will tend to gradually fill today and tonight, with northwesterly flow keeping a drier air mass in place to the north of a stalled frontal boundary for inland southeast GA. This drier air mass should quickly erode low stratus ceilings that are developing near the Altamaha River by the mid- morning hours. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture residing over the FL peninsula will struggle to lift into northeast FL, with PWATS finally rising above 1.5 inches by late afternoon. Values over north central FL should approach 2 inches by early afternoon, fostering increasing chances for beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary by late afternoon along the I-95 corridor, and the moistening atmosphere should allow for convective outflows to develop additional showers and thunderstorms for the rest of northeast FL through around sunset, with coverage likely remaining isolated over the Suwannee Valley, where a pocket of drier and more subsident air will be stubborn to erode. Filtered sunshine should boost highs to the low and mid 90s, except upper 80s along the southeast GA coast, where breezy onshore winds will develop earlier in the afternoon, and also for far southern portions of north central FL, where thicker multi-layered cloudiness will prevail to the north of widespread convection that will be ongoing for locations along and south of the I-4 corridor. The drier air mass over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley should allow dewpoints to fall through the 60s this afternoon, while dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across north central FL and at coastal locations today. Low level flow will become more southerly overnight, while the filling trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard keeps the frontal boundary stalled near the FL/GA border, with weak cyclogenesis progged along this boundary near the northeast FL coast towards sunrise. Gradually deepening moisture should allow for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue overnight for northeast and north central FL, while a drier air mass finally begins to retreat northward and away from southeast GA after midnight. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover from south to north overnight should keep lows in the lower 70s for most inland locations, with upper 70s expected along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will slowly trek through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will continue to bring tropical moisture into our southern locations of NE FL, PWAT values near 2". Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase into the afternoon on Wednesday from north central FL towards the FL/GA border. Thursday, we can expect a similar story in terms of spread of showers and storms for NE FL and SE GA, with the highest chances over the north central FL counties. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall currently in place which includes north central FL on Wednesday and Thursday, with the risk of spreading a bit north on Thursday just south of the JAX metro area. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for far inland locations of NE FL and SE GA, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast and north central FL. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s, but in the upper 70s along the coast and the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Friday, the front is expected to move to sit just over north central FL. This will bring drier air to filter into the area behind the frontal boundary, lowering chances of showers and storms over SE GA, with best chances of showers and storms again over north central FL during the afternoon hours into Monday. Daytime temperature highs will begin in the mid 90s over SE GA to the lower 90s over inland NE FL during the end of the work week. Saturday, daytime temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 90s, with warmer temperatures expected over SE GA as most showers will be over NE FL. Heading into the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will sit in the lower 90s. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend, with warmer temperatures in the upper 70s along coastal locations. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Showers and storms initially building across north central Florida will develop over northeast Florida as the afternoon progresses, with heaviest developments occurring south of the I-10 corridor. Vicinity showers and storms are likely for most sites with GNV and potentially SGJ experiencing more abundant thunderstorm activity by around 21-22z. Developments near the coast are possible in association with the diurnal sea breeze. Convection will dissipate overnight with low level cloud decks building in more densely over GNV and VQQ by around 06-08z on Wednesday with convection beginning to redevelop by the end of the forecasted period for areas west of the I-95 corridor, with winds building in from out of the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A frontal boundary will stall across our local waters today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Southerly winds will likely surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots for the offshore waters this evening before gradually diminishing after midnight. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today, with seas offshore building to the 3-5 foot range offshore tonight and Wednesday. Onshore winds may briefly strengthen late this week as weak low pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected to prevail throughout our local waters from Wednesday night through at least Saturday. A stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with another surge of onshore winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate risk will likely continue during the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A dry air mass will continue today for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, where minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this afternoon. Light northwesterly transport winds will prevail across inland southeast GA today, with breezy south-southwesterly transport winds for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy onshore surface winds are expected to develop outside of shower and thunderstorm activity for locations along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Elevated mixing heights will result in generally good daytime dispersion values today. Surface and transport winds will then shift to easterly on Wednesday and northeasterly on Thursday. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast on Wednesday, with good to marginally high values possible on Thursday as transport winds become breezy by the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 92 70 92 / 20 10 10 20 SSI 79 87 76 87 / 20 20 10 30 JAX 73 90 72 90 / 30 40 10 40 SGJ 77 89 75 88 / 40 50 30 60 GNV 73 91 71 91 / 40 80 30 50 OCF 73 90 72 90 / 40 80 60 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1184024 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 851 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 849 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No major changes to the forecast at this time. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary that was situated near the FL/GA border. Aloft...deep troughing continues to dig over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging in place from the Southern Plains northward through the Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, cutoff troughing was located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that the much anticipated surge of deep tropical moisture is nudging into north central FL, with PWATS of around 2 inches in place along the Interstate 4 corridor, while values elsewhere across our region remaining around or just below 1.5 inches, which is below climatology for June 11th. Southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of the tropical moisture surge are developing low-topped convection along the Nature coast, with a few showers also developing over Marion County. Otherwise, low stratus ceilings were developing for locations near the Altamaha River in southeast GA following late evening convection, while mostly mid and high altitude cloudiness in place elsewhere across our region. Temperatures were in the 70s for inland locations as of 08Z, ranging to around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints generally ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Troughing over the eastern U.S. will tend to gradually fill today and tonight, with northwesterly flow keeping a drier air mass in place to the north of a stalled frontal boundary for inland southeast GA. This drier air mass should quickly erode low stratus ceilings that are developing near the Altamaha River by the mid- morning hours. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture residing over the FL peninsula will struggle to lift into northeast FL, with PWATS finally rising above 1.5 inches by late afternoon. Values over north central FL should approach 2 inches by early afternoon, fostering increasing chances for beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary by late afternoon along the I-95 corridor, and the moistening atmosphere should allow for convective outflows to develop additional showers and thunderstorms for the rest of northeast FL through around sunset, with coverage likely remaining isolated over the Suwannee Valley, where a pocket of drier and more subsident air will be stubborn to erode. Filtered sunshine should boost highs to the low and mid 90s, except upper 80s along the southeast GA coast, where breezy onshore winds will develop earlier in the afternoon, and also for far southern portions of north central FL, where thicker multi-layered cloudiness will prevail to the north of widespread convection that will be ongoing for locations along and south of the I-4 corridor. The drier air mass over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley should allow dewpoints to fall through the 60s this afternoon, while dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across north central FL and at coastal locations today. Low level flow will become more southerly overnight, while the filling trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard keeps the frontal boundary stalled near the FL/GA border, with weak cyclogenesis progged along this boundary near the northeast FL coast towards sunrise. Gradually deepening moisture should allow for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue overnight for northeast and north central FL, while a drier air mass finally begins to retreat northward and away from southeast GA after midnight. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover from south to north overnight should keep lows in the lower 70s for most inland locations, with upper 70s expected along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will slowly trek through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will continue to bring tropical moisture into our southern locations of NE FL, PWAT values near 2". Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase into the afternoon on Wednesday from north central FL towards the FL/GA border. Thursday, we can expect a similar story in terms of spread of showers and storms for NE FL and SE GA, with the highest chances over the north central FL counties. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall currently in place which includes north central FL on Wednesday and Thursday, with the risk of spreading a bit north on Thursday just south of the JAX metro area. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for far inland locations of NE FL and SE GA, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast and north central FL. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s, but in the upper 70s along the coast and the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Friday, the front is expected to move to sit just over north central FL. This will bring drier air to filter into the area behind the frontal boundary, lowering chances of showers and storms over SE GA, with best chances of showers and storms again over north central FL during the afternoon hours into Monday. Daytime temperature highs will begin in the mid 90s over SE GA to the lower 90s over inland NE FL during the end of the work week. Saturday, daytime temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 90s, with warmer temperatures expected over SE GA as most showers will be over NE FL. Heading into the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will sit in the lower 90s. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend, with warmer temperatures in the upper 70s along coastal locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Initially VFR conditions for sites through this morning with convection expected to begin to develop at around 19-20z primarily ahead of the stalled frontal boundary, over NE FL and developing along coastal areas in conjunction with the diurnal sea breeze. Sites most likely to experience storms are GNV and SGJ, with vicinity developments currently for remaining sites. Showers and storms will become more dispersed this evening with lower cloud decks developing in at about 06-08z on Wednesday morning throughout the forecast area. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A frontal boundary will stall across our local waters today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Southerly winds will likely surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots for the offshore waters this evening before gradually diminishing after midnight. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today, with seas offshore building to the 3-5 foot range offshore tonight and Wednesday. Onshore winds may briefly strengthen late this week as weak low pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected to prevail throughout our local waters from Wednesday night through at least Saturday. A stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with another surge of onshore winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate risk will likely continue during the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A dry air mass will continue today for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, where minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this afternoon. Light northwesterly transport winds will prevail across inland southeast GA today, with breezy south-southwesterly transport winds for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy onshore surface winds are expected to develop outside of shower and thunderstorm activity for locations along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Elevated mixing heights will result in generally good daytime dispersion values today. Surface and transport winds will then shift to easterly on Wednesday and northeasterly on Thursday. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast on Wednesday, with good to marginally high values possible on Thursday as transport winds become breezy by the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 70 91 71 / 10 20 30 20 SSI 88 79 86 76 / 30 20 40 40 JAX 93 73 90 73 / 40 30 60 40 SGJ 92 77 87 74 / 40 40 70 60 GNV 94 73 90 71 / 40 40 70 40 OCF 91 73 88 73 / 50 40 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1184020 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:51 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 748 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary that was situated near the FL/GA border. Aloft...deep troughing continues to dig over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging in place from the Southern Plains northward through the Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, cutoff troughing was located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that the much anticipated surge of deep tropical moisture is nudging into north central FL, with PWATS of around 2 inches in place along the Interstate 4 corridor, while values elsewhere across our region remaining around or just below 1.5 inches, which is below climatology for June 11th. Southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of the tropical moisture surge are developing low-topped convection along the Nature coast, with a few showers also developing over Marion County. Otherwise, low stratus ceilings were developing for locations near the Altamaha River in southeast GA following late evening convection, while mostly mid and high altitude cloudiness in place elsewhere across our region. Temperatures were in the 70s for inland locations as of 08Z, ranging to around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints generally ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Troughing over the eastern U.S. will tend to gradually fill today and tonight, with northwesterly flow keeping a drier air mass in place to the north of a stalled frontal boundary for inland southeast GA. This drier air mass should quickly erode low stratus ceilings that are developing near the Altamaha River by the mid- morning hours. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture residing over the FL peninsula will struggle to lift into northeast FL, with PWATS finally rising above 1.5 inches by late afternoon. Values over north central FL should approach 2 inches by early afternoon, fostering increasing chances for beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary by late afternoon along the I-95 corridor, and the moistening atmosphere should allow for convective outflows to develop additional showers and thunderstorms for the rest of northeast FL through around sunset, with coverage likely remaining isolated over the Suwannee Valley, where a pocket of drier and more subsident air will be stubborn to erode. Filtered sunshine should boost highs to the low and mid 90s, except upper 80s along the southeast GA coast, where breezy onshore winds will develop earlier in the afternoon, and also for far southern portions of north central FL, where thicker multi-layered cloudiness will prevail to the north of widespread convection that will be ongoing for locations along and south of the I-4 corridor. The drier air mass over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley should allow dewpoints to fall through the 60s this afternoon, while dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across north central FL and at coastal locations today. Low level flow will become more southerly overnight, while the filling trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard keeps the frontal boundary stalled near the FL/GA border, with weak cyclogenesis progged along this boundary near the northeast FL coast towards sunrise. Gradually deepening moisture should allow for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue overnight for northeast and north central FL, while a drier air mass finally begins to retreat northward and away from southeast GA after midnight. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover from south to north overnight should keep lows in the lower 70s for most inland locations, with upper 70s expected along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will slowly trek through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will continue to bring tropical moisture into our southern locations of NE FL, PWAT values near 2". Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase into the afternoon on Wednesday from north central FL towards the FL/GA border. Thursday, we can expect a similar story in terms of spread of showers and storms for NE FL and SE GA, with the highest chances over the north central FL counties. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall currently in place which includes north central FL on Wednesday and Thursday, with the risk of spreading a bit north on Thursday just south of the JAX metro area. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for far inland locations of NE FL and SE GA, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast and north central FL. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s, but in the upper 70s along the coast and the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Friday, the front is expected to move to sit just over north central FL. This will bring drier air to filter into the area behind the frontal boundary, lowering chances of showers and storms over SE GA, with best chances of showers and storms again over north central FL during the afternoon hours into Monday. Daytime temperature highs will begin in the mid 90s over SE GA to the lower 90s over inland NE FL during the end of the work week. Saturday, daytime temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 90s, with warmer temperatures expected over SE GA as most showers will be over NE FL. Heading into the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will sit in the lower 90s. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend, with warmer temperatures in the upper 70s along coastal locations. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Initially VFR conditions for sites through this morning with convection expected to begin to develop at around 19-20z primarily ahead of the stalled frontal boundary, over NE FL and developing along coastal areas in conjunction with the diurnal sea breeze. Sites most likely to experience storms are GNV and SGJ, with vicinity developments currently for remaining sites. Showers and storms will become more dispersed this evening with lower cloud decks developing in at about 06-08z on Wednesday morning throughout the forecast area. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A frontal boundary will stall across our local waters today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Southerly winds will likely surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots for the offshore waters this evening before gradually diminishing after midnight. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today, with seas offshore building to the 3-5 foot range offshore tonight and Wednesday. Onshore winds may briefly strengthen late this week as weak low pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected to prevail throughout our local waters from Wednesday night through at least Saturday. A stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with another surge of onshore winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate risk will likely continue during the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A dry air mass will continue today for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, where minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this afternoon. Light northwesterly transport winds will prevail across inland southeast GA today, with breezy south-southwesterly transport winds for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy onshore surface winds are expected to develop outside of shower and thunderstorm activity for locations along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Elevated mixing heights will result in generally good daytime dispersion values today. Surface and transport winds will then shift to easterly on Wednesday and northeasterly on Thursday. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast on Wednesday, with good to marginally high values possible on Thursday as transport winds become breezy by the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 70 91 71 / 10 20 30 20 SSI 88 79 86 76 / 30 20 40 40 JAX 93 73 90 73 / 40 30 60 40 SGJ 92 77 87 74 / 40 40 70 60 GNV 94 73 90 71 / 40 40 70 40 OCF 91 73 88 73 / 50 40 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1183999 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:33 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON... ...BENEFICIAL RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASE ELSEWHERE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... ...DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Early morning surface analysis depicts a stalling frontal boundary that was situated near the FL/GA border. Aloft...deep troughing continues to dig over the eastern third of the nation, with ridging in place from the Southern Plains northward through the Mississippi Valley and the western Great Lakes. Otherwise, cutoff troughing was located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that the much anticipated surge of deep tropical moisture is nudging into north central FL, with PWATS of around 2 inches in place along the Interstate 4 corridor, while values elsewhere across our region remaining around or just below 1.5 inches, which is below climatology for June 11th. Southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of the tropical moisture surge are developing low-topped convection along the Nature coast, with a few showers also developing over Marion County. Otherwise, low stratus ceilings were developing for locations near the Altamaha River in southeast GA following late evening convection, while mostly mid and high altitude cloudiness in place elsewhere across our region. Temperatures were in the 70s for inland locations as of 08Z, ranging to around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints generally ranged from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Troughing over the eastern U.S. will tend to gradually fill today and tonight, with northwesterly flow keeping a drier air mass in place to the north of a stalled frontal boundary for inland southeast GA. This drier air mass should quickly erode low stratus ceilings that are developing near the Altamaha River by the mid- morning hours. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture residing over the FL peninsula will struggle to lift into northeast FL, with PWATS finally rising above 1.5 inches by late afternoon. Values over north central FL should approach 2 inches by early afternoon, fostering increasing chances for beneficial showers and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon hours. Scattered convection is expected to develop along the inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary by late afternoon along the I-95 corridor, and the moistening atmosphere should allow for convective outflows to develop additional showers and thunderstorms for the rest of northeast FL through around sunset, with coverage likely remaining isolated over the Suwannee Valley, where a pocket of drier and more subsident air will be stubborn to erode. Filtered sunshine should boost highs to the low and mid 90s, except upper 80s along the southeast GA coast, where breezy onshore winds will develop earlier in the afternoon, and also for far southern portions of north central FL, where thicker multi-layered cloudiness will prevail to the north of widespread convection that will be ongoing for locations along and south of the I-4 corridor. The drier air mass over inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley should allow dewpoints to fall through the 60s this afternoon, while dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across north central FL and at coastal locations today. Low level flow will become more southerly overnight, while the filling trough along the U.S. eastern seaboard keeps the frontal boundary stalled near the FL/GA border, with weak cyclogenesis progged along this boundary near the northeast FL coast towards sunrise. Gradually deepening moisture should allow for scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to continue overnight for northeast and north central FL, while a drier air mass finally begins to retreat northward and away from southeast GA after midnight. Thickening multi-layered cloud cover from south to north overnight should keep lows in the lower 70s for most inland locations, with upper 70s expected along the Atlantic coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will slowly trek through the area on Wednesday and Thursday. The SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will continue to bring tropical moisture into our southern locations of NE FL, PWAT values near 2". Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase into the afternoon on Wednesday from north central FL towards the FL/GA border. Thursday, we can expect a similar story in terms of spread of showers and storms for NE FL and SE GA, with the highest chances over the north central FL counties. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall currently in place which includes north central FL on Wednesday and Thursday, with the risk of spreading a bit north on Thursday just south of the JAX metro area. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for far inland locations of NE FL and SE GA, with highs in the upper 80s along the coast and north central FL. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s, but in the upper 70s along the coast and the St Johns River. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 By Friday, the front is expected to move to sit just over north central FL. This will bring drier air to filter into the area behind the frontal boundary, lowering chances of showers and storms over SE GA, with best chances of showers and storms again over north central FL during the afternoon hours into Monday. Daytime temperature highs will begin in the mid 90s over SE GA to the lower 90s over inland NE FL during the end of the work week. Saturday, daytime temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 90s, with warmer temperatures expected over SE GA as most showers will be over NE FL. Heading into the upcoming week, daytime temperatures will sit in the lower 90s. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend, with warmer temperatures in the upper 70s along coastal locations. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 14Z. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading northward from the FL peninsula will begin to encroach on the GNV terminal after 15Z, with better chances for impacts occurring after 19Z. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop near the rest of the northeast FL terminals after 18Z, and PROB30 groups for MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours and wind gusts up to 25 knots were included through around 00Z. Thunderstorms are a little less likely at SSI, but vicinity showers will be possible after 13Z. Convection is expected to dissipate after sunset on Tuesday evening, with VFR conditions expected to prevail at the regional terminals after 00Z Wednesday. Southwesterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SSI will continue through around 08Z, with west or west-southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots expected elsewhere and also after 08Z at SSI. Surface winds will then shift to northwesterly at SSI after 13Z, with westerly winds expected elsewhere at the northeast FL terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze will then develop and shift inland on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in winds shifting to east- southeasterly at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals by 18Z, while winds shift to southerly at GNV and VQQ. Surface winds will then shift to southerly at 5-10 knots after 00Z at the regional terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A frontal boundary will stall across our local waters today, with showers and thunderstorms initially over central Florida gradually spreading northward towards our area this afternoon. Weak low pressure will then develop along this stalled boundary tonight over the northeast Florida waters, with this feature moving slowly northeastward through Friday. Southerly winds will likely surge to Caution levels of 15-20 knots for the offshore waters this evening before gradually diminishing after midnight. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore today, with seas offshore building to the 3-5 foot range offshore tonight and Wednesday. Onshore winds may briefly strengthen late this week as weak low pressure center moves further away from our local waters. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible across through the upcoming weekend as the frontal boundary remains stalled. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected to prevail throughout our local waters from Wednesday night through at least Saturday. A stronger high pressure center will build southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes region this weekend, with another surge of onshore winds possible by Sunday and Monday as this feature wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds this afternoon will combine with a south-southeasterly ocean swell to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at area beaches. This lower end moderate risk will likely continue during the next few days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 423 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A dry air mass will continue today for inland locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, where minimum relative humidity values will fall to around 35 percent this afternoon. Light northwesterly transport winds will prevail across inland southeast GA today, with breezy south-southwesterly transport winds for locations south of the I-10 corridor. Breezy onshore surface winds are expected to develop outside of shower and thunderstorm activity for locations along the I-95 corridor this afternoon. Elevated mixing heights will result in generally good daytime dispersion values today. Surface and transport winds will then shift to easterly on Wednesday and northeasterly on Thursday. Fair to good daytime dispersion values are forecast on Wednesday, with good to marginally high values possible on Thursday as transport winds become breezy by the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 70 91 71 / 10 20 30 20 SSI 88 79 86 76 / 30 20 40 40 JAX 93 73 90 73 / 40 30 60 40 SGJ 92 77 87 74 / 40 40 70 60 GNV 94 73 90 71 / 40 40 70 40 OCF 91 73 88 73 / 50 40 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1183987 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 210 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 14Z. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading northward from the FL peninsula will begin to encroach on the GNV terminal after 15Z, with better chances for impacts occurring after 19Z. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop near the rest of the northeast FL terminals after 18Z, and PROB30 groups for MVFR visibilities during heavier downpours and wind gusts up to 25 knots were included through around 00Z. Thunderstorms are a little less likely at SSI, but vicinity showers will be possible after 13Z. Convection is expected to dissipate after sunset on Tuesday evening, with VFR conditions expected to prevail at the regional terminals after 00Z Wednesday. Southwesterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots at SSI will continue through around 08Z, with west or west-southwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots expected elsewhere and also after 08Z at SSI. Surface winds will then shift to northwesterly at SSI after 13Z, with westerly winds expected elsewhere at the northeast FL terminals. The Atlantic sea breeze will then develop and shift inland on Tuesday afternoon, resulting in winds shifting to east- southeasterly at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals by 18Z, while winds shift to southerly at GNV and VQQ. Surface winds will then shift to southerly at 5-10 knots after 00Z at the regional terminals. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will linger across the I-10 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually shifting southward into north-central FL Wednesday night. Meanwhile, trough axis over the eastern seaboard will advect mid-level drier air (PWATs < 1 in.) from the west-northwest on Tuesday. This will confine rain chances to mainly NE FL on Tuesday where the better low-level moisture (PWATs 1.5-2 in.) is and the sea breezes converge with the frontal boundary. SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will work to bring tropical moisture (PWATs ~2 in.) northward into NE FL and SE GA. Rain chances return to SE GA on Wednesday with the increase in moisture. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Unsettled and rainy pattern continues through the end of the week. The frontal boundary over north-central FL will remain stalled across north-central FL through Friday. The best moisture will be along and south of the boundary. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) advects northward into the weekend as upper level impulses across the Gulf will lift the boundary into the I-10 corridor. Showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances across north-central FL. With the juicy airmass, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible into the weekend. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for our north central FL counties. Highs will begin in the low-mid 90s during the latter half of the week, dropping to around 90 across most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through the weekend. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 70 92 71 / 10 10 30 20 SSI 88 77 87 76 / 40 20 50 40 JAX 94 74 91 73 / 60 20 60 40 SGJ 92 74 90 74 / 60 30 70 60 GNV 94 72 91 71 / 70 50 80 40 OCF 90 72 90 73 / 70 50 80 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1183963 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 844 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 836 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The strong to severe storms across SE GA late this afternoon have kicked off to the NE this evening and the SVR Watch has been cancelled. A few isolated strong storms still possible along the lingering outflow boundary across SE GA with gusty winds and small hail, otherwise the lingering pocket of dry airmass across most of NE FL should keep that area mostly dry with abundant mid and high clouds through most of the night. Warm overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s inland and upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast. The lingering frontal boundary near the FL/GA border and increasing moisture from the south up the FL Peninsula should lead to local sea breezes pushing inland Tuesday afternoon and kicking off scattered storm activity for most locations with more numerous storms south of a line from Gainesville to St. Augustine where the deepest moisture will be. Not as hot as today with highs in the lower 90s for most locations, except for some middle 90s across inland areas where storms develop latest in the day. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Potential for widely scattered strong to severe storms developing over southeast Georgia this afternoon ahead of a frontal boundary pressing down from out of the north with a more humid southwesterly-westerly flow moving across the forecast area. Primary threats associated with strong storms will be hail, strong winds, and possible isolated tornadoes. Potential for convection to develop along the Florida coastline in association with the east coast sea breeze which will remain pinned very close the shoreline through today due to westerly flow. Convection will become more dispersed over southeast Georgia overnight and into early Tuesday morning, however chances for showers and storms will increase over northeast Florida during this time as developments build ahead of the stalled frontal boundary. Near record level high temperatures are possible today with max temps rising into the upper 90s and possibly reaching as high as 100 degrees over inland areas with high temperatures along the coast reaching into the mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the into the lower to mid 70s for inland areas and in the mid to upper 70s for areas near the shoreline and along the St Johns River. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A weakening frontal boundary will linger across the I-10 corridor Tuesday into Wednesday before gradually shifting southward into north-central FL Wednesday night. Meanwhile, trough axis over the eastern seaboard will advect mid-level drier air (PWATs < 1 in.) from the west-northwest on Tuesday. This will confine rain chances to mainly NE FL on Tuesday where the better low-level moisture (PWATs 1.5-2 in.) is and the sea breezes converge with the frontal boundary. SW flow ahead of the frontal boundary will work to bring tropical moisture (PWATs ~2 in.) northward into NE FL and SE GA. Rain chances return to SE GA on Wednesday with the increase in moisture. Daytime temperature highs will begin to trend a bit lower as showers and cloud cover will keep the heat at bay, but highs are still expected to be in the lower 90s for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows will sit in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Unsettled and rainy pattern continues through the end of the week. The frontal boundary over north-central FL will remain stalled across north-central FL through Friday. The best moisture will be along and south of the boundary. Deeper tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) advects northward into the weekend as upper level impulses across the Gulf will lift the boundary into the I-10 corridor. Showers and storms are expected each day with the best chances across north-central FL. With the juicy airmass, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will be possible into the weekend. A Marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been placed by the WPC for our north central FL counties. Highs will begin in the low-mid 90s during the latter half of the week, dropping to around 90 across most of the local area by the end of the weekend. Temperature lows expected to sit in the lower to mid 70s from late this week into the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers/storms have totally missed SSI this evening and are still south of the NE FL TAF sites, so mainly VFR conds with light W-SW winds through the overnight hours and abundant mid/high clouds which should prevent any significant fog formation at inland TAF sites. Moisture continues to increase slightly across the region for Tuesday with at least scattered showers/storms possible at all TAF sites as the East Coast sea breeze pushes inland and have placed PROB30 groups at all TAF sites in the 18-24Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A frontal boundary over the southeastern states will move southward, stalling over the Georgia waters tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly closer to the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters. Severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over the Georgia waters will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, hail, waterspouts, and frequent lightning. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will then overspread our local waters from south to north on Tuesday and Wednesday as the frontal boundary remains stalled over our region. Prevailing onshore winds are expected late this week and into the weekend as weak low pressure potentially develops over the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through the weekend. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights should keep the rip current risk low at all area beaches through Tuesday. Prevailing onshore winds developing on Wednesday should result in a moderate risk at area beaches by late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 92 70 92 / 50 10 10 30 SSI 75 88 77 87 / 40 40 20 50 JAX 74 94 74 91 / 20 60 20 60 SGJ 74 92 74 90 / 20 60 30 70 GNV 72 94 72 91 / 10 70 50 80 OCF 71 90 72 90 / 40 70 50 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
