Dangerous September Underway
Posted: 04:37 AM 23 September 2022 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:12 PM 23-Sep EDT
Ian's poised to intensify tomorrow, but remains a 45mph storm today. The center may be reforming, northwest of the current position. The future track is highly uncertain beyond 3 days with models even more spread out than earlier. Anyone in the cone should prepare for the system, but hopefully we'll know more once it gets closer to Caymans, probably Monday morning.
"The track forecast is still highly uncertain at days 4-5, with the GFS and ECMWF positions
about 200 n mi apart by 96 h. There is significant spread noted even among the GFS ensemble members, with positions that range from the north-central Gulf of Mexico to the west coast of Florida. Hopefully, data collected from special radiosonde releases and a
NOAA G-IV flight this evening will help better resolve the steering flow around Ian and the deep-layer trough that is forecast to be over the eastern U.S. early next week."
Gaston is still continuing on, but Hermine has weakened to a depression.
9AM EDT Update 24 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Ian is going through bit of a reformation process, this morning, slightly further south. But the track is generally correct. Conditions for Ian improve greatly tomorrow beyond Jamaica, so it will likely intensify at that point. The forecast track cone is important in this one since slight variations could change the track either direction, so more so than usual don't focus on the track line in the middle. Surge impacts along the coast also depend greatly which direction and side the storm crosses since the water is generally driven by the wind direction. If landfall were south of Tampa, for instance, water would be driven out of the bay and surge flooding wouldn't be bad there, but worse for those south/right of the eye. If the storm went directly over or just to the north, surge flooding would be worse in the bay. The cone range is from the Keys to Apalachicola right now. Track shifts are likely
The further north the system would get the more it runs into shear associated with a front, so if it were to get in the northern parts of the Gulf, it would likely weaken before landfall.
Any watches for Florida likely wouldn't show up until tomorrow night or Monday morning.
Fiona made landfall as an extra tropical storm in Canada overnight, much of the wind trailed the rain shield. But there are reports of damage in eastern Nova Scotia.
Gaston is expected to become extra tropical today.
Hermine is bringing rain to the Canary Islands and likely will hang around for another few days.
11PM EDT Update 23 September 2022 Update
Tropical Storm Ian has formed from TD#9, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for Jamaica, and Hurricane Watches are up for the Cayman Islands.
Beyond this Cuba and the West Coast of Florida are in the cone. Florida Landfall, based on this track, would be a category 3 hurricane Overnight Tuesday to Wednesday morning along the coast Between Fort Myers and Sarasota, however, anywhere in the Cone should make preparations this weekend.
Fiona has become a very power extratropical System and is moving over Nova Scotia tonight.
Gaston is over the Western Azores, bringing low end tropical storm force winds.
Hermine is off the coast of Africa and expected to hang around just a few days before dissipating.
After the stunningly quiet August, multiple storms are now impacting and threatening land. Major Hurricane Fiona is presently lashing Bermuda and potentially set to become a record-setting hybrid cyclone in coastal Canada this weekend. Tropical Storm conditions are affecting the Azores with Gaston. And in the southern Caribbean, the stout wave we have been tracking (tagged 98L) has become the ninth real-time officiated tropical cyclone of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and this is one Floridians in particular are watching.
After inconsistent development and track trends, TD 9 has formed in a region that given all known knowns and known unknowns, is more likely than not to become a very significant tropical cyclone and one that could ultimately impact Florida in a very serious way. This far out, speculation belongs in model-talk, and we do have have lounges up for both Fiona and TD9, where modelling is often discussed in greater detail: Fiona Forecast Lounge TD9 Forecast Lounge , but it is already looking more likely than not that NINE will threaten the US Southeast, and very possibly Florida.
Elsewhere, Invest 90L is odds-on to become a tropical cyclone that impacts the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of this week, and 99L west of there has model support for development too, but that one may stay a fish storm.
Fiona Event Related Links
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fiona
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gaston
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ian
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ian
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=10 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Hermine
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hermine
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L
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