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#Chantal hanging on as a TD. Our attention has turned to two systems closer to home: A Bahamas Trof (30%) and W Gom Trof (< 10%)

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 40 (Barry) , Major: 316 (Michael) Florida - Any: 316 (Michael) Major: 316 (Michael)

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Tropical Storm Chantal Forms in the Open Atlantic

Posted: 03:30 PM 28 July 2019 | 11 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:12 PM 21-Aug EDT

10:30 PM AST 20 August 2019 Update
Invest 97L rapidly organized throughout the day (and night) while heading east out to sea, and has become the fourth Tropical Cyclone and third named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. No threat to land for the foreseeable future, if ever.
-Ciel

The 2PM Outlook shows a 20% chance for development in the system in the east Atlantic later this week as it moves toward Hispaniola and later the Bahamas,there is several days to watch as the system develop, which isn't expected until it gets north of the Caribbean islands. This system is being tracked as invest 95L.

It will most likely stay east of Florida, but the forecasting models seem to behind the curve on the current state of this system, so it's wise to monitor it closely. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on this system. The overall pattern suggests any systems that develop in early August will likely curve away from the US.

Chantal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chantal - New for 2018

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chantal

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chantal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chantal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chantal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track

SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Latest Flhurricane Facebook Pageupdates - See More Updates...

Facebook Update Posted
01:32 am 01-Aug-2019 EDT

Good evening and good morning.... the upper level pattern over the CONUS is not conducive for any tropical weather system to approach the Eastern United States for the foreseeable future. Anything that approaches will undergo recurvature assuming there is any degree of development. 96L way out there in the Atlantic does appear on both the GFS and Euro and will be in the neighborhood in about one week and while the longwave trough over the Eastern United States remains, it won't be as deep or in latitude as it currently is. Attached is the GFS 500 millibar relative vorticity chart H+168 hours (one week) Assuming this and Euro models remain fairly accurate, this system may and I stress, may pose a threat to the United States in about nine to ten days, but that's a big if this far out. Stay tuned!

Facebook Update Posted
02:55 pm 28-Jul-2019 EDT

Flhurricane is closely monitoring newly Invest-tagged 95L in the eastern Caribbean with potential upcoming impacts for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99983&gonew=1#UNREAD

Facebook Update Posted
09:43 am 23-Jul-2019 EDT

Beyond Tropical Depression Three, there is an area in the gulf with a 20% chance for Development over the next 5 days. Likely just a weak rainmaker, but the Northern/NE Gulf coasts will want to watch it.