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Basin is Uncommonly Quiet With No Development in Sight.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 81 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3256 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Low Near the Bahamas may bring a Rainy Friday to South Florida

Posted: 07:36 PM 10 September 2014 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:55 AM 14-Sep EDT

7PM ED 11 September 2014 Update
The area of low pressure, around 100 miles east of Stuart, FL is bringing rain toward parts of South Florida, and the northern side is being "squeezed" out. So what's left is a weak, relatively small, low system with some rain moving into Florida tomorrow. The small size will keep most of the rain to the south, with only short lived bands moving into parts of Central Florida. Beyond Florida, into the gulf, the system will continue to fight strong shearing conditions which should keep it weak while in the Gulf as well.

Notice anything interesting with weather conditions related to this system in your area, let us know In the conditions post.


11AM Update
Tropical Depression 6 formed from what was being tracked as 91L. This system is forecast to stay well out to sea, but may become a hurricane next week.

Original Update
Today is the typical peak of the Hurricane Season, but this year there are no named systems to track. There are two areas still being watched, an area in the east Atlantic being tracked as 91L, which is likely to remain offshore, but has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

Another area near the Bahamas has a low chance for development over the next few days as it heads toward south Florida. It has a chance to become a weak tropical storm or depression, but shear conditions around it would likely keep it from doing much more. The northeasterly flow should be the main cause of the shear. But it will likely bring some rainfall for a few areas in Central or South Florida. It's a fairly small system, so the area of rainfall may be localized to right where the system is.

Although it is not expected to become strong or even develop, it's important to watch small systems like these as they can spin up and down very quickly.

For more discussion on this system see the forecast lounge for the system.

Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if the system persists.

Full Florida Radar Recording for 92L Approach

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

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Edouard Event Related Links


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95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


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Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
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