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#99L Has Just Been Closed off. NHC Advisories Likely Soon. #Gaston Becomes First Major Cane of ATL 2016. Very Active Now.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 787 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3961 (10 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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TD#9 Forms, Suddenly Lots of Activity From Hawaii to Atlantic

Posted: 05:26 AM 28 August 2016 | 12 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:10 PM 28-Aug EDT

7:50PM EDT Update 28 August 2016
99L has become Tropical Depression #9, depending on if 8 gets named or not, the next name is Hermine, then Ian. The forecast track is highly uncertain and intensity and exact location are still very much fluid. It will likely have time to linger in the gulf for the next several days and potentially strengthen, there are a few negative factors such as shear that may keep it in check, but is countered by extremely warm water temperatures in the Gulf. Those along the west coast of Florida into the northern Gulf coast need to keep very close watch over the next few days.

When the system enters the Gulf proper and clears the keys/Cuba we may have a better idea how and where the system will go, if the system moves. If it stalls out, it makes it a lot more difficult, the GFS keeps it into the Gulf until Friday, so that is very much a possibility. With a better center fix models tomorrow should have a slightly better idea of the future, but still probably not enough with the slow motion of the system predicted.

Be aware for potentially rapid changes in the forecast this week.

11AM Update 28 August 2016
91L has become Tropical Depression Eight and is likely to form into Tropical Storm Hermine later today. Tropical Storm watches may be up for the Carolinas later today, but the forecast track keeps it just east of the Outer Banks.

99L Still has a chance to form tomorrow night or later in the week in the Gulf, the next name beyond Hermine is Ian. The system is stilll elongated and disorganized. Any organization with it will be slow. The name after Ian is Julia. The area north of Tampa, Big Bend and west along the Northern Gulf coast probably needs to watch it the closest.

Activity in the tropics will be in overdrive the next two weeks or so, including Hawaii which may be impacted by one or two storms.



Recon is scheduled to fly both TD#8 and 99L today. I suspect it'll be upgraded to Hermine when recon gets there.

Original Update


The most significant changes from this time yesterday is a necessary mention of Hawaii, and increased attention to some features closer to the lower 48, that were not getting much more than a second look before.

Out in the eastern to central Pacific, one Invest, one Tropical Storm and one Hurricane all have trajectories heading towards the Hawaiian islands. Possibly the most significant of these three is Hurricane Lester, that also has some potential for becoming an annular tropical cyclone. Closest to the island chain are an impressive, presently unnumbered Invest, and a strong Tropical Storm, Madeline. Both of these features could produce flooding rains on some or all of the islands.

Closest to Florida, Invest 99L continues to be earning more internet memes than praise, but the fact is, this tropical wave was as intense as we ever see them without being given a name, and then just had the misfortune of running into one obstacle after another, presently being some unforeseen moderately strong northerly shear. Once again, development, interrupted. IF this shear relaxes in time, then the most recent model runs could verify (a good guess is 50-50, but they have had more than their fair share of #99Lproblems).

It is worth noting that all of the most reliable tropical cyclone genesis models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET), as well as several lesser ones, develop this area of low pressure into a nameable tropical cyclone once in the Gulf. Given 99L's tenacity, it may be best not to crack any more jokes.

Going further down the list, Invest 91L has improved structurally and a little bit so convectively overnight, with more showers and a few thunderstorms firing up within its center of circulation. Given that a reasonably well-defined surface circ already exists, if convection holds and builds, it might actually be more than a mere rain-maker. Models that had strongly advertised either a southwest or northeast course have been wrong so far, but of course, with 91L tracking more to its west-northwest. Interests along the Carolinas and out to sea from there may want to begin treating 91L as if it was already a depression.

Now in the far northwest Gulf of Mexico, a trof of low pressure with an associated wave pouch, not yet having been given an Invest tag, has been percolating more just offshore overnight. This Low is sliding southwest along the Texas coast. The surface trough runs the Texas coast from near 29N 95W along 27N 94W to 24N 88W. A core of breezy moderate to heavy showers accompanies this feature, and there is a non-negligible chance for some additional development.

Out at sea, Gaston is a strengthening hurricane, and could become the Atlantic's first Major of this year within 48 hours.

Hawaii - Trop Storm Madeline Lounge

Hawaii - Hur Lester Forecast Lounge


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

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Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
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NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

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Miami Long Range Radar Recording for 99L
Florida Radar Recording for 99L


Tropical Depression 8) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#8


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Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#8

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#8
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#8 -- RAMMB Info

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Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
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Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

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Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

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Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

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Ed Dunham

Regarding Invest 99L

Posted: 12:24 PM 25 August 2016
It is beginning to look like the GFS may have had the best handle on this system from the start. It was easy to toss it out because early on it looked like an outlier solution, but if a model has demonstrated prior reliability it always should be examined as the potential solution. One of the most important factors in tropical cyclone forecasting (and the one that is most often overlooked) is 'patience'.

99L is certainly a system that requires a 'lot of patience' with regard to its future evolution, if any. At 25/15Z, 99L was located near 21.4N 71.6W with winds probably more realistically at 30 knots gusting to 40 knots and a central pressure of about 1009MB. Movement is to the west northwest in the low level flow at about 12 knots. The low is open to the southwest and it at the moment it has no convective support.

SSTs are at 29.5C and windshear is light westerly so conditions are favorable for some eventual development - more so since the system now has just one circulation rather than the earlier disorganized structure of three. Movement should continue to the west northwest heading toward the Florida Straits and South Florida Sunday morning as a Tropical Depression or minimal Tropical Storm - then turning northwest into the Gulf of Mexico while gaining strength on a path toward the north - central Gulf coast.

Blustery winds and heavy rain squalls seem likely for South Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend. Rain squalls also likely for western Cuba and, if the system develops quickly on Saturday, those squalls will extend into the northern Bahamas and the southern half of the Florida Peninsula. The next name on the list this season is Hermine (her-MEEN).
ED

(I guess that I spoke too soon - there are still two low-level swirls at 23Z that are merging over Great Inagua Island.)
30.6N 55.2W
Wind: 120MPH
Pres: 957mb
Moving:
Stationary
Click for Storm Spotlight
32.2N 72.1W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Wnw at 10 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
23.4N 82.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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