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94L organizing well east of the Caribbean with a high chance of developing. NW Gulf also an area to watch next week. Busy for June.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 285 (Nicholas) , Major: 301 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1355 (Michael) Major: 1355 (Michael)
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Second Half of June: Invests 93L, 94L

Posted: 02:34 PM 14 June 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:29 AM 26-Jun EDT

4:00AM EDT 26 June 2022 Update
All eyes are now east of the Caribbean with another Invest, 94L, with a HIGH chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone within the next 5 days. Models are especially bullish on this intense tropical wave, and there is nothing obvious ahead to discount such aggressive forecasts. Interests in the Eastern Caribbean may want to begin paying closer attention.

We now have a Forecast Lounge up on 94L for open discussion and deeper dives into the models
Invest 94L Forecast Lounge

Behind 94L there is another wave that appears to have some potential to start coming together in as little as the next couple of days. The tropical wave train this past week has looked a lot more like what we expect later in the season.

Much closer, a few models want to spin up a portion of the front that is now entering the northern Gulf into a low pressure center, perhaps TD or weak TS, in the coming week and send it west. Could call it a Texas "threat," but if all it becomes is a weak named storm at most, lots of Texans might think it more of a treat given the ongoing drought.


Original Update
The second half of June begins with yet another new Invest (93L). This continues a trend of an unusually perky first month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and as climatology favors systems that form in the western Atlantic during any month of June, named systems are more likely than not to occur close to land at this time of year.

Invest 93L is presently located in the extreme southwestern Caribbean. NHC gives this Tropical Low a 40% chance of becoming a T.D. or T.S. within about 48-96 hours (and it is already nearly there). The system is expected to track north-northwest to northwest over the coming days, and heavy precipitation with the potential for flooding is likely over eastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras this week, regardless of development.

Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly 93L tomorrow (Wednesday).

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Invest 94L Event Related Links


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



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