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The 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season is over. 2015's run June 1st-Nov 30th, 2015.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 297 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3472 (9 y 6 m) (Wilma)
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Flhurricane starts the 20th Year

Posted: 12:32 AM 01 January 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 09:08 AM 16-Jan EDT

2015 marks the 20th year flhurricane has been tracking storms, and with a 9 year Florida hurricane drought, we hope we can make it the 10th consecutive season without a landfalling hurricane.

Flhurricane started as an offshoot of the outdoor sportsman BBS in 1995 and quickly became its own entity. The domain name flhurricane happened in 1998, and we started archiving in 1996. We were among some of the first hurricane sites around, and started with the blog/news format in 1996.

To mention some others back then, Jim Williams at Hurricane City was also one of the first internet sites to cover hurricanes nearly exclusively and is also still going strong, Jim started with the real audio broadcasts back when it was new. Some newspapers started forums that splintered off into their own things (storm2k) and others. Some of the others back in the early days were Snonut, Erik Blake from Atlantic Tropical Weather Center (who now works at the National Hurricane Centeri Gary Gray from Millennium Weather was one of the first to bring hurricane models to the masses, including his own Trantech model at the time.. And Jeff Masters/Weather Underground was still forming then.

Since then some other very great authors and sites have come, and a few are still around.

With Katrina and Wilma, 2005 was the busiest year for this site, and that was after the followup from 2004 with the 4 hurricanes that crossed Florida. and we hope to not repeat it. Since then it's been mostly going on our own momentum and gracious donations over the years. It will continue, although the popularity waned a bit, so did the hurricanes, and the time worked on the site.

We also wish to thank all the contributors and moderators over the years!

The 2015 hurricane season starts on June 1st, and runs through November 30th.

More to come this year!
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Ed Dunham

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: 03:19 PM 09 April 2015
The CSU initial forecast for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2015 has been released with the following lead-in comments: "We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El NiƱo of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

As of the end of February an El Nino is in place and it is expected to increase in strength with at least a moderate El Nino quite likely for the entire Atlantic hurricane season. Some of the forecast models including the ECMWF suggest that a strong El Nino event will occur. Since the end of November, 2014, SSTs in almost all of the Atlantic tropical basin have declined considerably with anomalies greater than -1.5C in some areas in the eastern Atlantic and the western Caribbean Sea. This significant shift downward in tropical Atlantic SSTs will produce another year of decreased activity in the basin and it also reduces the likelihood of any early season storms. The CSU forecast numbers are 7 tropical storms, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes with one hurricane becoming a major storm. This is one of the lowest CSU tropical cyclone forecasts that I have ever seen them issue. They also expected an ACE of 40 and a seasonal activity level at 45% of normal.

CSU lists 1991 as one of their analog years, however, with such a rapid decline in the overall Atlantic tropical SSTs, I believe that 1969 and 1991 are no longer valid analogs. My new analog years are:

1. 1977 - Atlantic activity was 6/5/1 ....... EASTPAC activity was 8/4/0
2. 1959 - Atlantic activity was 10/6/2 ...... EASTPAC activity was 15/5/3
3. 1953 - Atlantic activity was 13/6/4 ...... EASTPAC activity was 4/2/0

The updated averages for these analog years is 10/6/2 - which is close to my current forecast of 9/6/2. (updated on 4/15 to 8/5/1)

TSR also issued its updated forecast for the Atlantic basin and lowered their forecast totals to 11/5/2 with the following comments: "The TSR forecast has been reduced, since early December 2014, due to updated climate signals indicating that the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in August-September 2015 will likely be cooler than normal and cooler than thought previously. Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season."

As the season gets underway, keep an eye on the level of activity in the EASTPAC. If it starts to look like the Eastern Pacific is going to have a busy year, then 1953 can be discarded as an analog year for the Atlantic - which means that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be mighty quiet - especially if the tropical Atlantic SST cooling trend continues into the Summer.

Remember that you can post your own forecast of seasonal numbers in the Storm Forum until the season starts on June 1st.
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2015 Storm Forum
Ed Dunham (11 replies)
Outlook for 2015
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Ball Lightning
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vineyardsaker (4 replies)
Pacific - Atlantic Connection
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Ed Dunham
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CFHC 2015 - 20 Years!
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