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#LANE LOOKING SOLIDLY CAT 5 UPGRADE LIKELY. POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS VERY POSSIBLE.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 317 (Nate) , Major: 335 (Maria) Florida - Any: 345 (Irma) Major: 345 (Irma)
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Major Hurricane Lane Nearing the Hawaiian Islands

Posted: 07:33 AM 20 August 2018 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:17 AM 21-Aug EDT



10PM HST Update 20 Aug 2018
Recon has found that Lane is once again strengthening, with central pressure at last fix in the lower 950s, and maximum sustained winds possibly around 150 MPH (both pending verification). With forecast steering currents indicating a right hook into the Hawaiian archipelago by Thursday, preparations to protect life and property should now be underway.
-Ciel


Original Entry


Hurricane Lane is a Major in the central Pacific. It now appears likely that the western extent of the central Pacific ridge will be eroding near the Hawaiian Islands as Lane will be approaching and/or tracking closest to the chain. In response, models and indeed the official forecast out of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center suggests that issuance of a Hurricane Watch for islands within the chain may be coming soon.

Hurricanes are rarely a distinct threat to Hawaii, except, primarily, should they approach from the south. This is the trend seen more and more by most models, except, notably, the Euro. Given that the Euro is the lone hold-out, however good a model it is, makes apathy an unsafe bet. Now is the time to begin hurricane prep, including preparing for potential life-threatening floods, rock and mudslides.

Recon has been flying Lane, and based on solid sampling, the intensity was raised to 110 knots late last night local time. More flight data forthcoming.

Quote:

Hurricane Warning

Offshore Waters Forecast for Hawaii
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1154 PM HST Sun Aug 19 2018

Hawaiian offshore waters beyond 40 nautical miles out to 240 nautical miles including the portion of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument east of French Frigate Shoals

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be more than twice the significant wave height.

...HURRICANE WARNING...

.REST OF TONIGHT...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.MONDAY...E winds 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MONDAY NIGHT...E winds 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
.TUESDAY through FRIDAY...Hurricane conditions expected over S and
SW waters. Elsewhere, E winds 20 to 30 kt, Seas 8 to 14 ft. Chance of thunderstorms.




For in-depth model discussion, join us in the Hurricane Lane Lounge

Links:
Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

Other:

Big Island News Now

Hawaii Tracker Big Island News

Facebook Update Posted
07:49 am 17-Aug-2018 EDT

#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.

Facebook Update Posted
04:35 pm 16-Aug-2018 EDT

Storm Upgraded:Subtropical Storm #ERNESTO toTropical Storm #ERNESTO 43.0N 41.0W Wind 45MPH Moving NE at 18 MPH https://t.co/0wuYNsM6Wu

Facebook Update Posted
09:45 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.

Facebook Update Posted
01:16 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms in the Central N. Atlantic, no threat to land areas.

Facebook Update Posted
05:39 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT

Subtropical Depression 5 forms in the Central Atlantic from 98L, no threat to land areas.

Hawaii:

C. Pacific Lane

Atlantic:
None
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