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80% Chance for development in 99L. Still disorganized with a rough sheared center near Anguilla and St. Martin.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 782 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3957 (10 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Gaston Forms, Fiona Fading, 99L Worth Watching

Posted: 04:54 PM 22 August 2016 | 10 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 10:46 AM 24-Aug EDT

10:30AM EDT Update 24 August 2016
99L is likely to move north of Puerto Rico today, with the dirty side (convection) passing over the island. Development chances in the near term are still 60%, but with the decoupled rough center and convection it is looking less likely that it'll be today, although things are moving toward development a bit later.



Still a lot of uncertainty and worth watching in the Bahamas and Florida.

3:30AM EDT Update 24 August 2016


After competing with itself for the better part of the past 48 hours, based on recent radar, buoy, ship and satellite data, Invest 99L is very nearly classifiable now, with an incipient center as of this update located close to Montserrat in the far eastern Caribbean. This suggests that the northernmost vorticity has become dominant, and interests in the northeastern to central Caribbean, up to the Bahamas and southeastern US should now be paying very close attention to this system, and heeding any forthcoming official watches and warnings, as issued.

-Ciel

3PM EDT Update 23 August 2016
99L has a 60% chance to develop over the next few days. Recon did not find an organized low level circulation, but the area was in better shape for development than previously thought.

Forecast models are mixed on the fate of this system, but the majority all generally move it toward Florida. Some like the Euro forecast development and others such as the GFS and HWRF do not (just a rain storm). Based on the Euro it could impact Florida as soon as this Sunday. (moved up from Monday)

Those in the E. Caribbean, Bahamas and Florida need to keep a close watch on the future of this system.

5AM EDT Update 23 August 2016
TD 7 has become Tropical Storm Gaston, with maximum winds estimated at a possibly conservative 50MPH. Gaston is forecast to become a formidable hurricane, and stay out to sea. Fiona is barley hanging on as a tropical cyclone, and forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday. However, what interests us here the most is Invest 99L.

99L, by all accounts, has been outperforming the weaker model runs, and appears more in sync with those that develop it. Over the course of the next few days, interests in the far eastern Caribbean will likely experience tropical depression or tropical storm-like weather, whether or not it has become a tropical cyclone. Beyond that, we have been discussing some rather eye-popping runs in the 99L Lounge , if you have the stomach.

We're now in the climatological peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic, and after several anomalously lucky years, it's prudent to conclude that the US will be hit by a serious hurricane sooner than later. "Word to the wise."

-Ciel



Carib Radar Mosaic recording of 99L approach
Floater recording of 99L

Original Entry
Tropical Depression Seven has formed from 90L in the east Atlantic, it is expected to become a hurricane, but remain far away from Land.

Over the next few days all attention will likely be on 99L as several models show it impacting Florida early next week. It has a low chance to develop in the near term, but goes up higher late in the week, when it may arrive at the Bahamas. Check the Forecast Lounge on it for speculation and model discussion.

Recon is scheduled to begin sampling 99L tomorrow which should help model runs later in the week. In the short term the Leeward islands needs to watch for some rain coming this Wednesday.

Fiona continues to weaken but may move more westward, it is possible the remains of Fiona could re-surge later, so even after it dissipates it may need to be watched.

More to come soon.

99L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Gaston Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston


stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gaston

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Fiona Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fiona

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Ed Dunham

Does A Preseason Storm Suggest A Busy Season?

Posted: 01:26 PM 04 July 2016
The short answer is 'not necessarily'. By established definition, the Atlantic Hurricane season (which is more properly the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone season) begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The total number of Tropical Storms (including Subtropical Storms) and Hurricanes are recorded for the calendar year. Preseason Tropical Storms and Hurricanes - activity prior to June 1st - and post season events during December are included in the annual totals, but using a Calendar Year to determine seasonal activity does have some flaws from a meteorological perspective. The rare Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that occur in January and February are recorded as preseason early activity for the current year but these events are really post-season events, i.e., they represent an extension of the meteorological conditions that prevailed during the previous calendar year.

If you examine all of the years that recorded a preseason event, some of them must be discarded. The February storm in 1952 and the January storm in 1978 were post-season events of the prior year. (Note that in 2016, Hurricane Alex (January) was a 2015 post-season storm, but TS Bonnie (May) qualifies 2016 as a preseason year.) In 1916 and 1934, the storms in May were later reclassified as extratropical systems. In 1997 the system defined on May 31st did not become a tropical cyclone (actually a TS) until June 1st so it really wasn't a preseason event. Finally in 2007 the first storm in May was reclassified as extratropical and the second system on May 31st did not become a TS until June 1st.

1887 and 2012 had two storms in May and 1908 had one storm in March (probably the 1908 season rather than the previous year) and one storm in May. 1992 and 2003 each had a storm in April and 16 other seasons had a preseason storm in May (1865, 1889, 1890, 1932, 1933, 1940, 1948, 1951, 1953, 1959, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1981, 2008 and 2015). Therefore in the 165 seasons from 1851 through 2015 there were 21 of them that had preseason activity - which is 12.7 percent of all seasons. The average storm totals for those 21 seasons: 11.2 named storms, 6 hurricanes - 2 of which became major hurricanes (Cat III or greater). Six of those seasons ended up with 10-12 named storms (an average season); 8 of those seasons had 9 named storms or less (a quieter season); 7 of those seasons had 13 named storms or more (an active season). From a climatological standpoint, a preseason storm has no impact on what the final seasonal numbers will be. Even in the 51 years of the satellite era, the 9 preseasons averaged 11.6 named storms with 3 seasons of normal activity, 3 seasons of below normal activity and 3 seasons of above normal activity.
ED
16.1N 39.4W
Wind: 65MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
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