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Flood Emergencies in N. Carolina with up to a record 40" of rain that's still falling. Elsewhere, watching Invest Isaac closely in NW Car.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Florence) , Major: 364 (Maria) Florida - Any: 374 (Irma) Major: 374 (Irma)
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Florence and Isaac

Posted: 07:42 AM 11 September 2018 | 15 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 09:54 PM 16-Sep EDT

4PM Update 16 September 2018


Slow moving Florence continues unleashing Harvey-like rainfall over much of North and South Carolina, breaking the all-time record for tropical cyclone rainfall in at least North Carolina, and closing in on even national records.

As of 10AM, Wilmington had set an all-time annual rainfall total, at 86.79" (with several months yet to go). The previous annual record for the city was 83.65" set way back in 1877.

Current flood situation has 8 rivers at Major Flood Stage, 8 at Moderate. By Wednesday the forecast is calling for an additional 15 (23 total) rivers in Major Flood Stage, and an additional 5 in Moderate (13 total).

North Carolina transportation authorities continue advising road travelers to go around the state entirely.

Elsewhere, the remnants of Isaac are being tracked as an Invest (no new Invest number, keeping the same name). This area of disturbed weather has continued to show some signs of organization despite a less than ideal environment for redevelopment, and interests in the northwest Caribbean may want to keep watch. Pockets of heavy rains and gusts to tropical storm force are already occurring.

95L has pushed into northern Mexico, after helping deluge parts of coastal south Texas. Joyce and Helene are becoming more fully post-tropical at high latitudes near the Azores.
-Ciel


7AM Update 13 September 2018

Florence looks a bit weaker since last night, but the south side has actually improved overnight, setting it up to maintain or strengthen itself up to landfall, forward motion will begin to slow down today as it approaches the Carolinas. All preparations should have been finished yesterday, as conditions will gradually worsen in the warning areas today, and worsen quickly in the evening.



6PM Update 12 September 2018
Florence has weakened to a category 3 storm today, but the wind field has greatly expanded, meaning the big issue will be the storm surge. Large wind fields and strong winds create a massive set of issues, and will cause rivers to pile up or flow backwards in some cases at times.

Also Subtropical Storm Joyce has formed in the North Atlantic, no threat to land, but currently 4 active Atlantic systems, we could potentially have 5 with the other areas in play.





11PM Update 11 September 2018
Tomorrow, Wednesday, is the last full day to prepare in North and South Carolina. Use it wisely.

Florence is still a major Category 4 hurricane heading west northwest, tomorrow it will move the fastest then slow down as it approaches the coast on Thursday, do not focus on the exact track, but beware anywhere in the cone could feel hurricane force impacts either from wind, rain, surge, or all 3.

If local officials asked for you to evacuate, please do so.

** It is important for folks to realize that significant impacts extend well away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as a dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area regardless of exactly where the center moves and that there is here is substantial uncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast..**

For information for your particular area pay attention to local media and officials.

For Isaac:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica. The Hurricane Watch for Dominica has been discontinued.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Martinique and Guadeloupe. The Hurricane Watch for Martinique and
Guadeloupe has been discontinued.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for Saba and St. Eustatius.


9PM Update 11 September 2018
Some interesting changes today with the models, but otherwise the forecast track remains the same. Because of the uncertainty those who have evacuation orders should heed them, even in South Carolina as things could change quickly for you there, but the entire warning area should prepare.



Florence's eye and structure has expanded today, and recon will soon find if the strength has gone up or not . Storm Surge is likely a massive threat with this hurricane for many areas as it is expected to slow down forward motion right before landfall.

Original Update
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, and the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Charles Light, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

Florence still approaches, and it appears somewhere near the SC/NC border with the potential to go south toward Charleston OR up to the outer banks as a large category 4 storm Thursday night or very early Friday morning and then potentially slow down. Therefore: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina, northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Since the threat of storm surge with such a large, powerful hurricane is extreme: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the east coast of the United States from Edisto Beach, South Carolina (Just orth of Hilton Head Island) northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

In Hawaii Olivia has Tropical Storm Warnings for the majority of the sate, including Oahu and islands east, and Watches for the islands west of there.

There's also Isaac and Helene and 95L that has a 60% chance for development that could impact Texas

Links below: Much more to come later.

Please consult Local officials and local media for the best information for your particular area.

Sites like these are good for deeper dives into the information, but no replacement for official sources!

Check out our twitter feed using the link at the bottom left.

For Florence:
Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map



Eastern NC/OBX/Hampton Roads Media:

North Carolina Power Outage Map

Star News Online (Wilmington)

Outer Banks Sentinel

Hampton Roads Pilot

WWAY TV 3 Wilmington, NC (ABC)

WECT TV 6 Wilmington, NC (NBC)

Fox Wilmington (FOX)

WILM TV 10 Wilmington, NC (CBS)

WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)

WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)

WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)

Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV

WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA

WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
NCDOT Travel info map, cameras, closures, etc
South Carolina DOT Evacuations/Contraflow
South Carolina traffic maps/Traffic Cameras

Webcams:
Surf City pier, Topsail Island, NC
Myrtle Beach


FLhurricane webcam and radar recordings for Florence -- Lots of Cameras linked here

Frying Pan Shoals Live Stream

Florence Flood Event tide sensors from USGS.

NC Regional COD Satellite

Coastal South Carolina Media:

Myrtle Beach Sun News

Charleston Post and Courier

94.3 WSC Charleston News Radio


Power Outage Map: South Carolina Power Outage Map

For Isaac:
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


Florence Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Florence - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Florence


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Florence (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Florence (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Florence

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Florence
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Florence -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Isaac Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Isaac - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Isaac


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float9latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Isaac

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Helene Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Helene - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Helene


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float8latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Helene (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Helene (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Helene

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Helene
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Helene -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Joyce Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Joyce - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Joyce


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float10latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Joyce (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Joyce

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Joyce
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Joyce -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

95L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 95L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float11latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Facebook Update Posted
10:52 am 19-Sep-2018 EDT

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJx1QWb13wQ&feature=youtu.be Mark Sudduth Sep 19th Update of what's going on in the Atlantic

Facebook Update Posted
09:21 am 17-Sep-2018 EDT

Mark Sudduth's Video Update for Sept 17 (Flooding in the Carolinas) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8AhJP4W984

Facebook Update Posted
06:52 pm 16-Sep-2018 EDT

Not to diminish the disaster underway with Florence, but we also might not be done with Isaac. Interests in Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, Yucatan and the Lower Keys may want to monitor this system closely with us in the Isaac Forecast Lounge
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99448&gonew=1#UNREAD

Facebook Update Posted
08:58 am 14-Sep-2018 EDT

Florence Made Landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Wrightsville Beach at 7:15AM, it's now moving to the southwest, currently over Carolina Beach.

Facebook Update Posted
04:53 am 14-Sep-2018 EDT

Radar Image this morning.

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2018 Forecast Lounge
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Isaac Lounge
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95L Lounge
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Florence Lounge
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Olivia Lounge
CFHC 2018
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