Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home
Posted: 05:17 PM 23 August 2019 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:03 PM 25-Aug EDT
5PM EST 24 August 2019 Update
FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Dorian is traversing an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and low mid-level humidities. However, shear is forecast to drop by midday Sunday, and remain low or even very low through Tuesday. As the well-defined TC crosses over warm waters while in this very favorable shear, the potential for dry air intrusions could be low, and in fact the official NHC forecast calls for Dorian to become a hurricane within 72 hours.
Key Messages:
Quote:
1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.
Original Entry
We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).
As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.
As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official NHC odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM TWO and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.
Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.
Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge
Dorian Event Related Links
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Invest 98L Event Related Links
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
East Florida Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
South to North:
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track
SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
FLorida Keys -
Miami/South Florida -
Melbourne/East Central Florida -
Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge
North Gulf Links
North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
East to West:
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
Area Forecast Discussions:
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
New Orleans, LA -
Lake Charles, LA -
Houston/Galveston, TX
Facebook Update Posted
05:41 pm 25-Aug-2019 EDT
Levi Cowan's Sunday evening video update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNJvaDSCg-0
Facebook Update Posted
09:12 pm 24-Aug-2019 EDT
Evening Video update from Levi Cowan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0p9aWl9StI
Facebook Update Posted
05:38 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT
New Article: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home
http://flhurricane.com/index.php?noblogs=1#News100053
Facebook Update Posted
04:01 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT
Mark Sudduth's update video about the areas being watched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=undN4QBr1gE&feature=youtu.be
Facebook Update Posted
01:32 am 01-Aug-2019 EDT
Good evening and good morning.... the upper level pattern over the CONUS is not conducive for any tropical weather system to approach the Eastern United States for the foreseeable future. Anything that approaches will undergo recurvature assuming there is any degree of development. 96L way out there in the Atlantic does appear on both the GFS and Euro and will be in the neighborhood in about one week and while the longwave trough over the Eastern United States remains, it won't be as deep or in latitude as it currently is. Attached is the GFS 500 millibar relative vorticity chart H+168 hours (one week) Assuming this and Euro models remain fairly accurate, this system may and I stress, may pose a threat to the United States in about nine to ten days, but that's a big if this far out. Stay tuned!
Facebook Update Posted
02:55 pm 28-Jul-2019 EDT
Flhurricane is closely monitoring newly Invest-tagged 95L in the eastern Caribbean with potential upcoming impacts for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99983&gonew=1#UNREAD
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Experimental forecast storm probabilities from Dr. Alan Brammer
Goes 16 Satellite Images (new for 2017)
College of DuPage Animated Goes 16 loop of Gulf of Mexico
Large Color Southeast Satellite Image
Interactive Wundermap
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
American Weather/Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's Weather Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Flhurricane Ustream Video Stream (Active only in certain events)
CFHC Weather Stations: Orlando (Universal) - Cocoa (Lake Poinsette) -
Even more on the links page.
