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#Erika Trough Dumping Heavy Rains Where Needed and Not. TS Fred Forms. Ignacio & Jimena Closer to Hawaii #flhurricane.com
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 422 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3597 (9 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Trough of Erika Exhibiting Some Organization as TS Fred Forms & Ignacio

Posted: 06:01 AM 30 August 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 08:49 AM 30-Aug EDT



The Erika remnants being tracked as Invest 90L have blown up some big convection overnight between Cuba and South Florida. These remnants have been trying to reorganize some, and there now appears to be two distinct vorticity maxima along this trough, one near the Keys, and the other over or just south of central Cuba.

While NHC puts the odds of redevelopment into a Tropical Cyclone at a rather low 30%, many of the effects will and have been the same (heavy to locally very heavy and potentially flooding thunderstorm rains, strong wind gusts, and possibly isolated waterspouts/weak tornadoes).

In addition to x-Erika in the western Atlantic, Tropical Storm Fred has formed just southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, which is now under a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. Fred is forecast to track northwest, and then turn west-northwesterly. More about Fred: FRED LOUNGE

Meanwhile in the Pacific, two large and major hurricanes are on courses causing some concern in the Hawaiian Islands - certainly a trend this year. More about Ignacio HERE (IGNACIO LOUNGE), and Jimena HERE (JIMENA LOUNGE).

Erika & Fred Links

Florida Radar Recording of Erika Approach

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Radar Recording of Erika Approach

flhurricane Cuba Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane East Caribbean Radar Recording of Erika approach

flhurricane San Juan, PR Radar Recording of Erika approach

90L (Ex-Erika) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 90L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 90L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 90L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 90L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 90L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 90L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Erika Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Fred Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fred


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fred (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fred (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fred

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fred
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fred -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

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Ed Dunham

The Erika Enigma

Posted: 05:57 PM 27 August 2015
At 27/17Z, TS Erika was located at 16.5N 63.5W and at 27/19Z Erika was located at 16.6N 63.6W - pretty much a dead stop, i.e., slow drift to the northwest, however at 27/21Z the center was located at 16.8N 63.8W - still moving to the northwest but the forward speed is increasing. With convection displaced to the southeast, positions were easy to determine based on the exposed, but still well formed, LLCC. As noted elsewhere, convection was firing on the eastern edge of the center but it is now firing over most of the center and the displacement continues to the east and southeast.

Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been of very little help in determining both the future intensity and the forecast track of this sheared tropical cyclone - both the early and the long range models have been all over the place with this system. Some of this erratic model output has surfaced in the NHC forecast which at times has seemed to be just as erratic, but if you live by the model.... To be fair, they have to come up with something every six hours whereas we have no such requirement.

When dealing with the tropics there are times (frequent times actually) when persistence is not only the best solution but often the only realistic solution so before I chastise the NHC too harshly I'll wait awhile and see how this all plays out. When forecasting hurricanes, the hardest thing to do is to have patience - when something is expected to happen but it doesn't, if you force yourself to wait a little longer the event that you expected, i.e., a turn to the northwest or something like that, eventually will. In other words the forecast idea was generally pretty good, but the timing was off.

Where is Erika likely to go - and will Erika survive to do it? Right now there are many options and all of them are realistic based on where the tropical cyclone is and what the environment looks like and how that environment is expected to evolve. Erika could get sheared apart and become an open wave. Erika could hit Puerto Rico and fall apart or survive and just miss Hispaniola. Erika could hit Hispaniola and end the storm track. Which one is the likely solution? Right now I have no firm idea - so I'll be patient for a little while longer. At Erika's current speed I certainly have enough time to do that. Erika still has to deal with a significant amount of windshear but, since the shear is primarily in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the system has been dealing with the shear rather well so far and it will probably continue to do so as long as the LLCC remains intact.
ED
12.9N 19.3W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1005mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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