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Atlantic remains Quiet. Extremely high windshear and no systems to speak of will likely keep it shutdown through mid July.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 362 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3537 (9 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Storm Bill Landfall at Matagorda Island

Posted: 10:08 PM 15 June 2015 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:57 AM 19-Jun EDT

11:45 AM CDT June 16th Update
Tropical Storm Bill made landfall at Matagorda Island at 11:45 CD On June 16, 2015.




6:15 AM CDT June 16th Update
Tropical Storm Bill has maintained its forward motion overnight and kept its overall strength through the night, only recently has a few signs of strengthening occurred. Recon is currently out sampling the data, so some adjustment upward in windspeed is likely.

The system will likely landfall late this morning or early afternoon, possibly reaching roughly 60mph before it is done. Nearly all the convection is on the east side of the storm, so areas to the east of the landfall point will see most of the rainfall impacts of the system. Rain on the east side of Bill will likely be the biggest impact. A strengthening tropical system is something to pay attention to. Those in the area check with local officials and media.

Mark Sudduth from HurricaneTrack is out at the Bolivar Peninsula today See Live stream

Original Update
Tropical Storm Bill has formed from invest 91L, and will likely be a big rain maker for parts of east Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Baffin Bay (south of Corpus) to High Island, TX (North of Galveston)



The initial windspeed is 50MPH, it is possible for it to strengthen a bit more before landfall, but it is currently only 200 miles away from Galveston, Texas now. It is forecast to get to at least 60mph before landfall near Matagoria . If the system slows forward motion it may get slightly stronger. (and the rain would hang around longer).

2-4 ft of coastal storm surge flooding is possible just to the north and east of where Bill makes landfall.

Bill is the 14th storm to form in June since 1950. And the first named storm to make landfall in mid/upper Texas since 2008 (Ike).

More to come soon.

Matagorda Beach Webcam Recording

Tropical Storm Bill Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bill


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bill (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bill (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bill

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bill
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bill -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Texas Gulf Coast Links Texas/South Plains Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Corpus Christi, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Brownsville, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Houston/Galveston, TX - Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX

Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Houston/Galveston Related Links:

Texas Emergency Management

Galveston area Storm Surge Map (pdf)

Webcams:

Surfside Beach Jetty Cam

Octogon View (Surfside Beach, TX)

Matagoria Beach Webcam

League City Texas Weather Webcam

North TextVisual WebCam summary Page from HurricaneCity,com


Media:

Click2Houston/Local 2

KHOU

Galveston County The Daily News

chron.com

ABC13 KTRK

Houston Press

Power:

Center Point Energy Power Outages (Houston Area)

AEP Texas Outage map


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Ed Dunham

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Posted: 03:19 PM 09 April 2015
The CSU initial forecast for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity in 2015 has been released with the following lead-in comments: "We anticipate that the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be one of the least active seasons since the middle of the 20th century. It appears quite likely that an El NiƱo of at least moderate strength will develop this summer and fall. The tropical and subtropical Atlantic are also quite cool at present. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean."

As of the end of February an El Nino is in place and it is expected to increase in strength with at least a moderate El Nino quite likely for the entire Atlantic hurricane season. Some of the forecast models including the ECMWF suggest that a strong El Nino event will occur. Since the end of November, 2014, SSTs in almost all of the Atlantic tropical basin have declined considerably with anomalies greater than -1.5C in some areas in the eastern Atlantic and the western Caribbean Sea. This significant shift downward in tropical Atlantic SSTs will produce another year of decreased activity in the basin and it also reduces the likelihood of any early season storms. The CSU forecast numbers are 7 tropical storms, with 3 of them becoming hurricanes with one hurricane becoming a major storm. This is one of the lowest CSU tropical cyclone forecasts that I have ever seen them issue. They also expected an ACE of 40 and a seasonal activity level at 45% of normal.

CSU lists 1991 as one of their analog years, however, with such a rapid decline in the overall Atlantic tropical SSTs, I believe that 1969 and 1991 are no longer valid analogs. My new analog years are:

1. 1977 - Atlantic activity was 6/5/1 ....... EASTPAC activity was 8/4/0
2. 1959 - Atlantic activity was 10/6/2 ...... EASTPAC activity was 15/5/3
3. 1953 - Atlantic activity was 13/6/4 ...... EASTPAC activity was 4/2/0

The updated averages for these analog years is 10/6/2 - which is close to my current forecast of 9/6/2. (updated on 5/30 to 8/3/1)

TSR also issued its updated forecast for the Atlantic basin and lowered their forecast totals to 11/5/2 with the following comments: "The TSR forecast has been reduced, since early December 2014, due to updated climate signals indicating that the tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea in August-September 2015 will likely be cooler than normal and cooler than thought previously. Should the TSR forecast for 2015 verify it would mean that the ACE index total for 2013-2015 was easily the lowest 3-year total since 1992-1994 and it would imply that the active phase of Atlantic hurricane activity which began in 1995 has likely ended. However, it should be stressed that the precision of hurricane outlooks issued in April is low and that large uncertainties remain for the 2015 hurricane season."

As the season gets underway, keep an eye on the level of activity in the EASTPAC. If it starts to look like the Eastern Pacific is going to have a busy year, then 1953 can be discarded as an analog year for the Atlantic - which means that the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season could be mighty quiet - especially if the tropical Atlantic SST cooling trend continues into the Summer.

Remember that you can post your own forecast of seasonal numbers in the Storm Forum until the season starts on June 1st.
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