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First Day of East Pacific Hurricane Season starts with Aletta
Posted: 07:02 AM 15 May 2012 | | Add Comment
May 15th is the first official day of the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, the Atlantic starts on June 1st.
And this year the East Pacific is already active with Tropical Storm Aletta forming this morning. The system is well away from land areas and not moving toward any.
The Atlantic had a weak system in the Central Atlantic (92L) that has fallen apart, and nothing else likely remains.
In years past, many times when the East Pacific was active, the Atlantic was quite (And sometimes vice-versa). This year's early Atlantic season will likely be slow with just a few things to watch, and little to no actual storms. Late July and August things may pick up, with mid August - mid October being they key times to watch.
The site will continue to focus less on hype and more just facts, we will highlight areas that could potentially form (such as invests or disturbances, but will avoid speculation on what will occur. Long range model runs can be especially misleading in the first two months of hurricane season (and really the entire season)..
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And this year the East Pacific is already active with Tropical Storm Aletta forming this morning. The system is well away from land areas and not moving toward any.
The Atlantic had a weak system in the Central Atlantic (92L) that has fallen apart, and nothing else likely remains.
In years past, many times when the East Pacific was active, the Atlantic was quite (And sometimes vice-versa). This year's early Atlantic season will likely be slow with just a few things to watch, and little to no actual storms. Late July and August things may pick up, with mid August - mid October being they key times to watch.
The site will continue to focus less on hype and more just facts, we will highlight areas that could potentially form (such as invests or disturbances, but will avoid speculation on what will occur. Long range model runs can be especially misleading in the first two months of hurricane season (and really the entire season)..
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As of May 3rd, the little 'counter' in the upper right corner of the page indicates that it has been 2,383 days since a Hurricane last made landfall in the Sunshine State. That event was on October 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma crossed over the southern tip of the peninsula from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic with landfall near Cape Romano. Since then, 42 hurricanes have entered the record books - but not a single one has made landfall in Florida.
A check of the weather records indicate that it is indeed very unusual for Florida to go for such a long time (over six years) without a hurricane impact. This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) - but that record may not be accurate since the population of Florida was rather sparce in the 1850s and 1860s (and the 1870s as well), and a hurricane could have made landfall in an unpopulated area (hence no known records of such an event).
Here are the other long intervals without a Hurricane in Florida:
October 18, 1910 to August 1, 1915 - 1,747 days
October 16, 1999 to August 13, 2004 - 1,762 days
October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days
September 4, 1979 to November 20, 1985 - 2,269 days
October 24, 2005 to ??? (as of May 3rd - 2,383 days and counting)
A Hurricane has hit Florida in 44% of the seasons since 1851 - for an average of 11 landfalling hurricanes every 25 years. The latest ENSO climatology update through April suggests that 1951, 1968, 2009, 2006 and 1976 are the best analog years for this season. Interesting that only one of those years (1968) had a hurricane (Gladys) that hit Florida.
ED
A check of the weather records indicate that it is indeed very unusual for Florida to go for such a long time (over six years) without a hurricane impact. This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) - but that record may not be accurate since the population of Florida was rather sparce in the 1850s and 1860s (and the 1870s as well), and a hurricane could have made landfall in an unpopulated area (hence no known records of such an event).
Here are the other long intervals without a Hurricane in Florida:
October 18, 1910 to August 1, 1915 - 1,747 days
October 16, 1999 to August 13, 2004 - 1,762 days
October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days
September 4, 1979 to November 20, 1985 - 2,269 days
October 24, 2005 to ??? (as of May 3rd - 2,383 days and counting)
A Hurricane has hit Florida in 44% of the seasons since 1851 - for an average of 11 landfalling hurricanes every 25 years. The latest ENSO climatology update through April suggests that 1951, 1968, 2009, 2006 and 1976 are the best analog years for this season. Interesting that only one of those years (1968) had a hurricane (Gladys) that hit Florida.
ED
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, QuikScat oceanic wind data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Multiple model output from FSU/Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, MM5; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
NCEP models NAM, GFS, WW3, NGM
NOGAPS
FIM Model (New for 2011 Experimental Model)
Raleighwx model page
Other commentary from Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, TropicalAtlantic, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Eric Berger, HurricaneVille, Mike Watkins , Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Max Mayfield, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, Hurricane Alley, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather
Noaa Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, QuikScat oceanic wind data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Multiple model output from FSU/Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, UKMET, MM5; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
NCEP models NAM, GFS, WW3, NGM
NOGAPS
FIM Model (New for 2011 Experimental Model)
Raleighwx model page
Other commentary from Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, TropicalAtlantic, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Eric Berger, HurricaneVille, Mike Watkins , Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Max Mayfield, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, Hurricane Alley, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather
Noaa Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.

