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#98L 90% odds SE Coast should watch. NEW #99L easy 50%+ odds. Caribbean threat next week. Also a Low in the W Gulf. Season has arrived.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 41 (Barry) , Major: 317 (Michael) Florida - Any: 317 (Michael) Major: 317 (Michael)
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Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

Posted: 05:17 PM 23 August 2019 | | Add Comment



We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).

As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.

As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official NHC odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM TWO and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Invest 99L Lounge, W Gulf Trof Lounge



Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 99L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Chantal Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Chantal - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Chantal


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Chantal (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Chantal

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Chantal
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Chantal -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida - Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

Facebook Update Posted
05:38 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT

New Article: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home
http://flhurricane.com/index.php?noblogs=1#News100053

Facebook Update Posted
04:01 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT

Mark Sudduth's update video about the areas being watched.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=undN4QBr1gE&feature=youtu.be

Facebook Update Posted
01:32 am 01-Aug-2019 EDT

Good evening and good morning.... the upper level pattern over the CONUS is not conducive for any tropical weather system to approach the Eastern United States for the foreseeable future. Anything that approaches will undergo recurvature assuming there is any degree of development. 96L way out there in the Atlantic does appear on both the GFS and Euro and will be in the neighborhood in about one week and while the longwave trough over the Eastern United States remains, it won't be as deep or in latitude as it currently is. Attached is the GFS 500 millibar relative vorticity chart H+168 hours (one week) Assuming this and Euro models remain fairly accurate, this system may and I stress, may pose a threat to the United States in about nine to ten days, but that's a big if this far out. Stay tuned!

Facebook Update Posted
02:55 pm 28-Jul-2019 EDT

Flhurricane is closely monitoring newly Invest-tagged 95L in the eastern Caribbean with potential upcoming impacts for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99983&gonew=1#UNREAD

Facebook Update Posted
09:43 am 23-Jul-2019 EDT

Beyond Tropical Depression Three, there is an area in the gulf with a 20% chance for Development over the next 5 days. Likely just a weak rainmaker, but the Northern/NE Gulf coasts will want to watch it.

Facebook Update Posted
07:03 pm 12-Jul-2019 EDT

Levi Cowan Video Update for Barry 7/12/2019 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNgfODNQg8M

35.6N 40.9W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1014mb
Moving:
S at 6 mph
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