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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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Ophelia Azores, Ireland, N. Ireland, Scotland

Posted: 07:24 AM 10 October 2017 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:04 PM 23-Oct EDT

12 PM Update 14 October 2017
Ophelia has become the sixth Major of this Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While likely undergoing or having completed extratropical transition, Ophelia is now expected to enter Ireland at hurricane intensity, with an ever-expanding wind field.
Quote:

48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP





7 AM Update 13 October 2017

Ophelia is moving the east northeast currently as a category 2 hurricane and should move just east o the Azores, after this it may be near or over Ireland as an extra tropical storm (similar to what Sandy was right at landfall in New Jersey) If the forecast holds as is, it's possible for storm surge and strong winds to show up along the western coast of Ireland.on Monday, and later Scotland on Tuesday. It wouldn't be a tropical system at that time, but it still would have a lot of the energy. There is still a great deal of uncertainty at that range of the forecast.



There have been other tropical systems that have gone on to Ireland or the UK before, including Debbie in 1961, but they are extremely rare. Katia in 2011 was another example.

Additionally there is a system east of the lesser Antilles with a 20% chance for development over the next 4 days, this area would likely curve north away fromt he islands, but Bermuda may still need to watch it.

Opheliia Links

Met Eireann -- Irish Meteorological Service
United Kingdom Meteorological Service

Original Update
Tropical Storm Ophelia is active in the far east Atlantic, and expected to remain there well away from any land areas. It is forecast to become ahurricane, but only affect shipping.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic there is not immediately threats of development, and nothing obvious in the mid range either. The areas to typically watch are the Gulf, West Atlantic and especially the Western Caribbean (where Nate came from), but none of these areas currently have anything going on. Things tend to change fairly quick in October, though, so it's worth keeping up with every few days. The season starts to wind down around the last week of October, so with a little luck Nate may be the last landfall we'll deal with this year.

But, there still remains a good amount of energy left, so there's still a very good chance that something else could form before the season is done.

We'll be watching.

Ophelia Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ophelia


stormplotthumb_17.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ophelia (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ophelia

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ophelia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ophelia -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_18.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
01:33 pm 21-Oct-2017 EDT

Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week

Facebook Update Posted
11:01 am 16-Oct-2017 EDT

#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm

Facebook Update Posted
10:54 pm 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 1 Hurricane #OPHELIA toPost-Tropical #OPHELIA 49.2N 13.3W Wind 85MPH Moving N at 44 MPH https://t.co/FzVY78nEBv

Facebook Update Posted
10:46 am 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 2 Hurricane #OPHELIA to Cat 1 Hurricane #OPHELIA 41.6N 16.0W Wind 90MPH Moving NNE at 38 MPH https://t.co/R249huryhF

Facebook Update Posted
04:43 am 15-Oct-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Cat 3 Hurricane #OPHELIA to Cat 2 Hurricane #OPHELIA 39.0N 18.3W Wind 105MPH Moving NE at 35 MPH https://t.co/R249huryhF

Facebook Update Posted
12:21 pm 14-Oct-2017 EDT

#Ophelia becomes 6th Major of this Hyperactive Season. Forecast to bring #Hurricane Force winds near or over #Ireland. #92L still cooking

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