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Remnant TD9 Moves into the Yucatan. TS Warnings Have Been Dropped.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 112 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3287 (9 y 0 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Depression Nine Moving over the Yucatan from the West

Posted: 07:35 AM 20 October 2014 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 12:23 PM 22-Oct EDT

5AM Update 22 October 2014
Tropical Depression 9 formed from 93L late last night and is now moving generally eastward over toward the Yucatan.

A tropical storm warning is up in Mexico there from Celestun to Frontera. Beyond this it is expected to weaken over the peninsula and re-emerge int he northwest Caribbean, where it becomes a bit more muddled. It is likely to dissipate by then.

If Florida receives any part of whatever becomes of TD#9, it would likely be mid to late next week.

Original Update
Hurricane Gonzalo has transitioned into extra-tropical and the remnants are moving quickly near Scotland, and Ana has moved to the west of the Hawaiian Islands. Ana did bring a lot of rough surf and rain to the Islands. (around 5 inches to Honolulu)

It's late October, but there are two areas currently being watched in the Atlantic, one in the far eastern Atlantic, 92L is likely to remain out to sea , and only has about a 30% chance to develop.

The other one, 93L is in the Gulf in the Bay of Campeche, and also has a 30% for development over the week. The more interesting aspect of this one is that it may affect South Florida or Cuba this weekend, most likely as a rainmaker or subtropical system. It should be watched through the week.

In general the Gulf/Western Caribbean may be active over the next few weeks.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

94L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Tropical Depression Nine Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#9


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#9 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD#9

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD#9
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#9 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)




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Ed Dunham

End of an Era

Posted: 02:40 PM 01 September 2014
It is beginning to look like the era of 'high spin cycle' tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin that started in 1995 has run its course with only three named storms recorded through the end of August. There were hints of that demise last year with a below normal level of hurricane development, i.e., only two Cat I storms - the last time that the Atlantic only had two hurricanes in a season was 1982. The last time that a season had three or less named storms by August 31st was in 1994 - the last year of the previous 'quiet cycle' in the Atlantic.

In the 45 seasons from 1950-2014 there were 17 seasons that only had three named storms by August 31st, so its not an unusual event, but it is unusual that the last one was 20 years ago. At the other end of the activity spectrum, in 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012 there were 12 named storms by August 31st. Here are the previous 16 seasons since 1950 with three or less named storms prior to September 1st along with activity totals for those years, totals for the following year, and hurricane landfall statistics for the 16 seasons:

Year - # by 8/31 - total activity - following year - U.S. landfalls - FL landfalls
1952 2 6/6/3 13/6/4 1 0
1956 3 8/4/2 7/3/2 1 1
1957 2 7/3/2 10/7/5 1 0
1961 1 11/8/7 5/3/1 2 0
1962 2 5/3/1 9/7/2 0 0
1963 2 9/7/2 12/6/6 1 0
1965 3 6/4/1 11/7/3 1 0
1967 1 8/6/1 8/4/0 1 0
1977 1 6/5/1 12/5/2 1 0
1980 3 11/9/2 12/7/3 1 0
1982 3 6/2/1 4/3/1 0 0
1983 2 4/3/1 13/5/1 1 0
1987 3 7/3/1 11/5/3 1 1
1991 2 8/4/2 7/4/1 1 0
1992 2 7/4/1 7/3/1 1 1
1994 3 7/3/0 19/11/5* 0 0

Average 2 7/5/2 9/5/2 1 0
(*1995 was not included in the 'following year' average since 1995 was the start of the active cycle.)

Note that although these were all slow starting years (and mostly quiet years), every season except 1994 had at least one major hurricane. Although these were mostly quiet years, only three of them did not have a U.S. landfalling hurricane, while in Florida only three seasons had a landfalling hurricane. In the following year, one season had normal activity while seven seasons were above normal and seven seasons had below normal named storm activity, i.e., no correlation to the previous year. On average, based on the 16 seasons that started with three named storms (or less) by August 31st, this season would be expected to have four more named storms - with a minimum of one more and a maximum of eight more.

Since the lack of activity cannot be blamed on an El Nino event (it has not yet started), it is increasingly likely that the period of Atlantic high tropical cyclone activity has ended. However, it is important to remember that the likelihood of a U.S. hurricane landfall is about the same (approximately 22%) during a 'quiet cycle' era as it is during an 'active cycle' era - and that is also true for a Florida hurricane landfall (about 5%).
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