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#Karl pulling away from Bermuda and #Lisa spinning down, all eyes are turning to eastern Atlantic #flhurricane.com
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 23 (Hermine) , Major: 3989 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 23 (Hermine) Major: 3989 (10 y 11 m) (Wilma)
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Karl Moving Out, Closely Watching 97L for Next Week

Posted: 09:07 AM 25 September 2016 | | Add Comment

Tropical Storm Karl has passed by Bermuda and is now on the way out to sea, the attention now moves to the wave in the central Atlantic being tracked as invest 97L. This system will likely have some impacts in the central to southern leeward islands and Windwards mid week around Wednesday, and beyond that move into the Caribbean. There is an 80% chance this system will develop over the next 5 days. Beyond that it it is too soon to tell, but will likely need to be watched closely by those in the Caribbean, Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf to see where it ultimately goes.

Any impacts to the US wouldn't be until next week (Oct 6-9), there is a good chance the system stays east, but in that case there would be more impact felt in the Caribbean and Bahamas. It's still a ways out with a undeveloped system so speculation beyond a few days is a bit counterproductive, but the system is worth watching.

More speculation on 97L can be found in the forecast lounge.

97L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


TS Karl Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Karl


stormplotthumb_12.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Karl (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Karl (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Karl

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Karl
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Karl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


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San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

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Ed Dunham

Hermine Heads for Florida

Posted: 02:22 AM 01 September 2016
At 2AM, Tropical Storm Hermine was located about 300 miles to the west southwest of Tampa in the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 26.0N 87.0W with winds of 60mph gusting to 75 mph and a central pressure of 999 MB. Hermine is moving just east of due north at 6mph. Sea-Surface Temperatures are as high as 30C in the Gulf of Mexico so additional intensification to Cat I Hurricane strength seems likely. I expect that the system will move slightly to the right of the current NHC forecast track with landfall late Thursday evening southwest of Cross City and exit into the Atlantic in the Jacksonville area early Friday morning. The tropical cyclone should maintain at least Tropical Storm strength as it crosses the peninsula. The storm is a typical Gulf system with most of the wind and weather located in the eastern half of the cyclone.

Sustained Tropical Storm winds are likely in Jacksonville and possible in St Pete/Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach. Wind gusts to tropical storm force in rain squalls (40 to 45mph) are possible along and north of a line from Ft Myers to Ft Pierce on Thursday. Scattered to numerous tropical downpours - a few with thunder - will produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches in east central Florida on Thursday and early Friday with much heavier amounts in west central and northeast Florida. Significant flooding is likely through Friday - especially in west central to northeast Florida. Hurricane force winds at landfall Thursday evening will create widespread power outages and flooded roadways in the Cross City to Jacksonville corridor. Isolated tornadoes are possible - mostly over the northern half of the peninsula - on Thursday

Most of the forecast models seem to have initialized Hermine's center too far to the west, and it is quite possible that Hermine may move slightly more to the right than I have indicated - which primarily would generate higher winds in west central Florida. A good guideline with this Tropical Storm is to extrapolate the current movement, whenever the storm turns more to the north northeast, and use that as the expected track since nothing is likely to move the storm to the left of that line.
ED
39.9N 47.9W
Wind: 70MPH
Pres: 986mb
Moving:
Ne at 49 mph
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