6:15 AM EDT Update Thursday, 2 September 2010

Hurricane Earl has probably peaked earlier this morning, but remains a strong category 4 storm. It is forecast to come very close (40-60 miles) of the outer banks, still as a major hurricane. Any deviation to the west would bring the worst of it onshore. Those in the warning areas should pay attention to local media and officials about any evacuations or recommendations.

Today should be spent in final preparations and leaving as conditions will begin to deteriorate in North Carolina in the late afternoon or evening. Closest approach to North Carolina would likely bit in pre-dawn hours tomorrow.

After passing near/over North Carolina, Earl is forecast to stay offshore the mid Atlantic, but Nantucket has a chance to get part of the western eyewall. Because of this hurricane watches are in effect now (in addition to the other warnings/watches) from north of the NC/VA Border to Cape Henlopen in Delaware. And now also from westport to Plymouth, MA (along with cape code/Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket) Those in Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket would be wise to begin preparations now.



Wind fields tend to expand when the storms get further north, so there is a good chance a large area in the northeast may experience some strong winds.

Beyond that, Extreme Northeast Maine may be a landfall, and Canada will either way, and it is likely Earl still will be a hurricane when it does.

Fiona is on the out to sea path, but has a chance to come close to Bermuda (on the west side). Therefore Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm watch for FIona.

Gaston is remaining weak this morning, but expected to continue to track west. Gaston is moving much slower than the other storms, and may not reach closer to the Leeward islands until mid-late next week. Odds favor Gaston not going out to sea, so it will be one to watch then.

Beyond Gaston is another wave (not being tracked as a proper invest yet) that has a 10% chance to develop over the next 48 hours, but more of one later on.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA
Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Flhurricane Recording of Radar (and more) of Earl US Approach
Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA


Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot

Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Canadian Hurricane Centre

Flhurricane Recording of French Antilles radar for FIona Approach
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Fiona Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Gaston Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)



8:30PM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Recon airfract has found a lower pressure in Earl of 932mb, which indicates Earl is continuing to strengthen.

Those still on the outer banks are highly recommended not to take the risk of a major storm approaching your area and leave.

Odds favor the center of it staying offshore, but the large size will still pound hurricane force winds along parts of the coast.






6:00PM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Earl has continued to strengthen with maximum sustained winds reaching 135MPH and Tropical Depression 9 has become Gaston, the 7th tropical storm of the season.



Meanwhile Fiona is struggling and may not survive to the weekend. Since Gaston remains far from land, all eyes remain on Earl with Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings stretching from North Carolina to the New Hampshire border.

There is another wave just off Africa (east of Gaston) that we'll need to watch next week also.

10:30AM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
The wave in the Central Atlantic looks to be upgraded to Tropical Depression 9 at 11AM.

Hurricane Earl was re-upgraded to Category 4 status, and Earl is forecast to remain a major as it goes right next to the outer banks of north Carolina. With a storm of this size, I would not stay on the outer banks if you are there.


8AM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Fiona has strengthened a bit since influence from Earl has been decreasing, it is now up to 60MPH Winds.

Chances for Development of the wave in the central Atlantic (98L) have gone up to 80%. This system would be named Gaston, and odds favor the more westerly track.

See original update for Earl information:



Original Update

Hurricane Earl has weakened a bit overnight due to dry air and small amounts of shear, but it is still a major hurricane. Earl is forecast to be at it's closest point to the outer banks of North Carolina Thursday night into Friday morning.

The majority of models keep Earl just offshore, but close enough to cause problems. A few, such as the NOGAPS take it inland into North Carolina. Those in the warning area, In short, prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and you should be looking at local advisories, officials, and Media.

The Hurricane Watches for North Carolina may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings later today.

Those north of there along the coast will want to watch Earl closely for any changes or additional watches and warnings. Especially in Eastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod.

Those in Canada in the forecast track zone should begin to prepare as well.



Tropical Storm FIona is being caught up in the northerly flow from Earl, and currently is just offshore North and East of the Leeward islands, the official forecast takes it northward and eventually stalls near Bermuda, but there is some uncertainty with the forecast so the next day or two is critical for the eventual path of FIona. Fiona will likely stay weak, unless effects from Earl drop off quicker than expected or a center relocation southward happens. Fiona is still very much worth watching.

Tropical Storm warnings and Watches are up for the Leewards for Fiona.

Out east of both is the wave 98L, which now has a 50/50 shot at development over the next few days. Odds favor this going generally westward, so those in the Leewards, again, will have to watch it closely.

Another system just over the west side off Africa also has a chance to develop into next week, and odds favor it moving more westward (Ie not out to sea) as well.

Although the tropical Atlantic has become quite active in the past couple of weeks, a weakness between the Azores/Bermuda High and a Continental High over the Northeast has kept Tropical Storm Colin and Hurricane Danielle well out to sea and away from the east coast. The pattern is slowly changing and Hurricane Earl, while staying primarily at sea, is going to sideswipe the coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts before he moves inland over Nova Scotia.

At 5PM, Hurricane Earl was centered about 235 miles east of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas. Earl was moving to the northwest at 17mph with sustained winds of 135mph and gusts to about 165mph - a Category IV major Hurricane. Hurricane Earl will continue to move northwest and then north as it comes under the influence of a trough of low pressure moving through the midwest that will eventually shove the storm off to the north northeast at an increased rate of forward speed while wind shear and cooler waters will slowly weaken the hurricane as it moves north northeast just offshore. A convergence zone could develop between the trough and the Hurricane and add some strong thunderstorms into the mix for western New England. Hurricane Earl should pass about 350 miles to the east northeast of east central Florida around midnight tonight. Earl should pass close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the early hours just after midnight on Friday morning and head north northeast - passing about 160 miles southeast of Springfield, Massachusetts, and 25 miles southeast of Chatham, Massachusetts, around midnight Friday night with tropical storm force winds extending about 125 miles to the northwest of the center at that time. Just a small shift to the west in the forecast track could bring hurricane and tropical storm conditions to a greater portion of the coast from North Carolina to southern New England. The following Warning and Watches are currently in effect:

Updated at 02/15Z, 11AM EDT:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING
MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET
TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...
INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT
JEFFERSON HARBOR.

Folks along the east coast from North Carolina to Nova Scotia need to closely monitor the progress and track adjustments of Hurricane Earl and be prepared to follow the instructions of local Emergency Management personnel.

Tropical Storm Fiona was located 145 miles northeast of St. Thomas at 5PM moving to the northwest at 20mph with sustained winds of 60mph. Fiona should begin to move more to the north and remain at sea and slowly weaken, dissipating in four or five days just south of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Gaston is a new tropical cyclone located over 1,600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles moving west at 15mph with sustained winds of 40mph gusting to 50mph. Gaston should maintain more of a southerly track as a strong high pressure ridge re-establishes itself over the Atlantic basin. Gaston should move west to west northwest and increase to hurricane strength by Sunday. Probably a system that will need to be monitored closely next week.

Yet another strong tropical wave exited the west African coast today (Wednesday) and it should intensify to a Tropical Depression by Friday or Saturday. The next name on the list is Hermine. Busy, busy! If a storm is heading your way - are you ready?
ED