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Invest 93L Becomes Tropical Storm Bertha

Posted: 11:21 PM 31 July 2014 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 11:59 AM 01-Aug EDT

7:30 AM EDT 1 August 2014 Update
August begins with Bertha east of the Caribbean, but she is very sheared. The NHC's current forecast seems good. Bertha will likely stay a Tropical Storm (and fluctuate a bit up and down) over the next few days. The Watch/Warning areas should expect Tropical Storm conditions and rain.

The first areas to see gusts toward tropical storm force are in Martinique and St Lucia later this morning.



Beyond the islands Bertha may approach the eastern Bahamas, but eventually likely will curve out to sea.

French Antilles Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Barbuda Radar Recording of Bertha Approach Alt player

Original Update
Just enough deep convection has developed just about atop of the low level circulation of 93L that NHC has concluded sufficient organization now warrants an upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Bertha. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 45MPH, with higher gusts.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia & Dominica.

Tropical Storm Watches are now in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, U.S. Virgin Islands, St Vincent & the Grenadines.

Ciel

Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

Antilles Weather Radar

Bertha Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bertha


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bertha (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bertha

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bertha
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bertha -- RAMMB Info

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Ed Dunham

Hurricane Arthur

Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
Kudos to The Weather Channel for deviating from the 'official' forecast earlier this afternoon. At 5PM EDT on July 3rd, NHC made an adjustment westward with the forecast track for Hurricane Arthur - and the actual track is probably going to be slightly west of that.

An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.

Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.
ED
14.9N 61.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 24 mph
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