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2013 Season Projections are Out
Posted: 06:19 PM 10 April 2013 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 02:18 PM 22-May EDT
The April season predictions are out,
Colorado State University with Bill Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach have released their 2013 April predictions that has totals of 18/9/4.
Which means 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, which is a highly active season. This year there is less to dispute that number than in the past 3 years or so and with over 7 years since a hurricane landfall in Florida, odds are higher than usual for something to occur. Still this is just the odds, and we may miss yet another year here in Florida.
The Weather Channel also issued its forecast for the season today : 16/9/5.
We at flhurricane agree that there is nothing concrete to dispute the numbers mentioned.
Analog years from Ed are 1996, 2001, 1981, 1984 and 1949. Colorado state suggested 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996, and most infamously (for Florida) 2004.
View Colorado State's full report at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th. The Peak is Mid August through the end of October.
Colorado State University with Bill Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach have released their 2013 April predictions that has totals of 18/9/4.
Which means 18 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, which is a highly active season. This year there is less to dispute that number than in the past 3 years or so and with over 7 years since a hurricane landfall in Florida, odds are higher than usual for something to occur. Still this is just the odds, and we may miss yet another year here in Florida.
The Weather Channel also issued its forecast for the season today : 16/9/5.
We at flhurricane agree that there is nothing concrete to dispute the numbers mentioned.
Analog years from Ed are 1996, 2001, 1981, 1984 and 1949. Colorado state suggested 1915, 1952, 1966, 1996, and most infamously (for Florida) 2004.
View Colorado State's full report at http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th. The Peak is Mid August through the end of October.
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The Atlantic Basin has been in a cycle of increased tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and that cycle is expected to continue in 2013 with a higher than normal number of tropical storms expected in the basin. In the past three years there were 29 hurricanes but only 3 - Irene in 2011 and Isaac and Sandy in 2012 - that made landfall as a hurricane in the continental United Status (although Sandy was not considered as a landfalling hurricane by NHC, many meteorologists disagree).
The start of the new season will soon be upon us and as of June 1st the entire state of Florida will have gone 2,777 days (7.6 years) without a landfalling hurricane - which is the longest hurricane landfalling drought in the Sunshine State since a 9 year stretch in the 1850s-1860s - and all of this during an active period in the Atlantic basin. But with regard to the frequency of landfalling U.S. hurricanes, does it make any difference if the basin is in an 'active' period or a 'quiet' period? The surprising answer is 'not much at all'. For the state of Florida there is a slightly greater risk during an active phase, but for the entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, the risk is actually slightly higher when the Atlantic basin is in a period of lower tropical cyclone activity.
From 1995 - 2012 (active period): 144 hurricanes, 31 U.S. landfalls (21.5%), 9 Florida landfalls (6.3%)
From 1977 - 1994 (quiet period): 91 hurricanes, 22 U.S. landfalls (24.2%), 4 Florida landfalls (4.4%)
During the active period (1995 - 2012) 13 of the 18 seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 5 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 13 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. During the inactive period of 18 seasons (1977 - 1994) 12 of the seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 4 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 14 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. Finally, the inactive period also had a long stretch without any Florida hurricane landfalls - from October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days (4.86 years). Although the sample set is small, there seems to be no significant correlation between the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes and the Atlantic basin cycles of tropical cyclone activity, however, the length of time that Florida has gone without a hurricane landfall places the state at HIGH RISK this season. With the expectation for another busy tropical season, now is the time to develop (or update) your hurricane preparedness plan.
If you have your own thoughts on just how busy this season will be, share them with others in the Storm Forum 'Outlook for 2013' thread before the season starts on June 1st.
ED
The start of the new season will soon be upon us and as of June 1st the entire state of Florida will have gone 2,777 days (7.6 years) without a landfalling hurricane - which is the longest hurricane landfalling drought in the Sunshine State since a 9 year stretch in the 1850s-1860s - and all of this during an active period in the Atlantic basin. But with regard to the frequency of landfalling U.S. hurricanes, does it make any difference if the basin is in an 'active' period or a 'quiet' period? The surprising answer is 'not much at all'. For the state of Florida there is a slightly greater risk during an active phase, but for the entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, the risk is actually slightly higher when the Atlantic basin is in a period of lower tropical cyclone activity.
From 1995 - 2012 (active period): 144 hurricanes, 31 U.S. landfalls (21.5%), 9 Florida landfalls (6.3%)
From 1977 - 1994 (quiet period): 91 hurricanes, 22 U.S. landfalls (24.2%), 4 Florida landfalls (4.4%)
During the active period (1995 - 2012) 13 of the 18 seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 5 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 13 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. During the inactive period of 18 seasons (1977 - 1994) 12 of the seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 4 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 14 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. Finally, the inactive period also had a long stretch without any Florida hurricane landfalls - from October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days (4.86 years). Although the sample set is small, there seems to be no significant correlation between the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes and the Atlantic basin cycles of tropical cyclone activity, however, the length of time that Florida has gone without a hurricane landfall places the state at HIGH RISK this season. With the expectation for another busy tropical season, now is the time to develop (or update) your hurricane preparedness plan.
If you have your own thoughts on just how busy this season will be, share them with others in the Storm Forum 'Outlook for 2013' thread before the season starts on June 1st.
ED
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, TropicalAtlantic, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Eric Berger, HurricaneVille, Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com , Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Max Mayfield, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, Hurricane Alley, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Interactive Wundermap
GFDL
San Jose State Models and More
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Other commentary from Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update, TropicalAtlantic, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Eric Berger, HurricaneVille, Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com , Hurricane City, mpittweather, WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Max Mayfield, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, Hurricane Alley, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.

