August So Far Mostly Quiet
Posted: 11:00 AM 09 August 2022 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 07:18 PM 11-Aug EDT
Above: Invest 98L at 11AM CDT Aug. 14, 2022
Invest 98L has moved inland near Corpus Christi, TX this morning and is of a status that a more relaxed definition of Tropical Depression easily applies. Light to heavy rainfall is copious and there are also a few embedded thunderstorms. Maximum sustained winds so far appear to be under 35 MPH, with some gusts to Tropical Storm force along the coast and just out to sea. Perhaps another candidate for post-season review.
The tropical low is expected continue pushing through south Texas and eventually into Mexico, where a second intensification phase is possible in response to orographic forcing. Dangerous and potentially life-threatening flooding and mudslides may occur in parts of deep south Texas and in particular extreme northeastern Mexico should 98L move rather slowly, or even stall at some point in the next few days.
1PM EDT 12 August 2022 Update
The area of low pressure in the Gulf we have been monitoring for a few days continues to show signs of increasing organization. While official odds are low and global model guidance is wanting, this system now bears closer monitoring, and we have started a Lounge on this feature that will likely also be Invest tagged soon.
Gulf Low Lounge
8AM EDT 12 August 2022 Update
An area, surface trough, first really noticed yesterday in the Gulf off of the coast of Louisiana now has a 10% chance for development, mainly because the time it will have over water isn't extremely long and a frontal system typically takes a while to get going. However, it is likely to bring rain to parts of Texas later this weekend. It is currently not tagged as an invest area.
With the exception of 97L which has a 30% chance for development, the first part of August has been fairly quiet. It's likely that in the latter half of August this will change, but things are trending toward a climatological average season this year. However, only takes one large one, and with a great deal of extremely warm water in the Western Atlantic, it's important to watch closer to home this year since things can change quickly.
97L is likely to hit shear this weekend which will keep it in check, but it is still worth watching beyond that to see where things go, and as the season peak starts toward the end of the month.
In general this site will be updated when things happen, and won't be when things are quiet.
Invest 98L Event Related Links
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2022&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Texas Gulf Coast Links [http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html Mark Nissenbaum's radar page} East to West: