Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Tropical Storm Warnings/Watches have expanded. #Dorian a little stronger. Too soon to tell impacts on PR/DR/VI and beyond.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 43 (Barry) , Major: 319 (Michael) Florida - Any: 319 (Michael) Major: 319 (Michael)
Latest CFHC News - See More News...
Article Icon

Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home

Posted: 05:17 PM 23 August 2019 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:03 PM 25-Aug EDT



5PM EST 24 August 2019 Update
FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Dorian is traversing an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and low mid-level humidities. However, shear is forecast to drop by midday Sunday, and remain low or even very low through Tuesday. As the well-defined TC crosses over warm waters while in this very favorable shear, the potential for dry air intrusions could be low, and in fact the official NHC forecast calls for Dorian to become a hurricane within 72 hours.

Key Messages:
Quote:

1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.



Original Entry
We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).

As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.

As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official NHC odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM TWO and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge


Dorian Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Dorian - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float5latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Invest 98L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 98L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float6latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)





StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida - Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Facebook Update Posted
05:41 pm 25-Aug-2019 EDT

Levi Cowan's Sunday evening video update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNJvaDSCg-0

Facebook Update Posted
09:12 pm 24-Aug-2019 EDT

Evening Video update from Levi Cowan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0p9aWl9StI

Facebook Update Posted
05:38 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT

New Article: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home
http://flhurricane.com/index.php?noblogs=1#News100053

Facebook Update Posted
04:01 pm 23-Aug-2019 EDT

Mark Sudduth's update video about the areas being watched.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=undN4QBr1gE&feature=youtu.be

Facebook Update Posted
01:32 am 01-Aug-2019 EDT

Good evening and good morning.... the upper level pattern over the CONUS is not conducive for any tropical weather system to approach the Eastern United States for the foreseeable future. Anything that approaches will undergo recurvature assuming there is any degree of development. 96L way out there in the Atlantic does appear on both the GFS and Euro and will be in the neighborhood in about one week and while the longwave trough over the Eastern United States remains, it won't be as deep or in latitude as it currently is. Attached is the GFS 500 millibar relative vorticity chart H+168 hours (one week) Assuming this and Euro models remain fairly accurate, this system may and I stress, may pose a threat to the United States in about nine to ten days, but that's a big if this far out. Stay tuned!

Facebook Update Posted
02:55 pm 28-Jul-2019 EDT

Flhurricane is closely monitoring newly Invest-tagged 95L in the eastern Caribbean with potential upcoming impacts for Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas and South Florida.
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Number=99983&gonew=1#UNREAD

11.7N 55.3W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
W at 14 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 98LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

2019 Forecast Lounge
cieldumort (8 replies)
Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge
cieldumort (1 reply)
Invest 90L Lounge (W Gulf)
Robert (7 replies)
Invest 98L Lounge
Robert (6 replies)
Yucatan Wave
CFHC 2019
CFHC is a Weather Enthusiast Run Site Focusing on East Central Florida and the Entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin since 1995
Maintained by:
John R. Cornelius - Cocoa, FL
Michael A. Cornelius - Orlando, FL
Meteorologist Ed Dunham - Melbourne, FL
Site Design by:
Christine M. Hahn - Allentown, PA
CFHC is NOT an official weather source, please only use us as a supplement to official weather outlets.
21838388
[ Hide This Bar ]

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center