Wave Approaching Caribbean (96L) May be one to Watch
Posted: 07:32 PM 19 August 2014 | | Add Comment
The dry air conditions are likely to put a damper on it, but being later in August those in the Caribbean will want to watch it. Long range models do put it as a potential threat to the northern Caribbean islands, including Cuba, and it possibly could enter the Gulf of Mexico. See the forecast lounge for more discussion on the longer range.
Despite that, it still has to develop around the dry air, which may let up Thursday or Friday somewhat, and enter into more favorable conditions.
More to come later, if necessary.
Another wave east of 96L also has a 20% chance for development over the next 5 days, but it is not being tracked as an invest currently. Model runs will be unreliable until a few runs after it develops, so don't read into long range forecasts this early.
If named, the storm would be called Cristobal.
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Invest 96L (East of Caribbean Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)
Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.
Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.