TD 12 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Kate in Eastern Bahamas
Posted: 07:04 AM 09 November 2015 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 11:09 AM 10-Nov EDT
Tropical Depression Twelve has formed from invest 94L in the eastern Bahamas. It is expected to intensify to Tropical Storm strength, and for this reason Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the eastern and Central Bahamas.
Once through the Bahamas it is expected to recurve away from the US and miss Bermuda to the West. Based on the atmospheric setup in the area and model consensus, this seems very likely.
This system is very compact and could have rapid changes in intensification, but only over a very small area. It's also moving very quickly at 15 mph, so any affects from it over the Bahamas shouldn't last very long. Recon aircraft is going to be checking it out today.
The 2015 Hurricane Season ends on November 30th.
Tropical Storm Kate Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Kate (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Kate (Animated!)
Television & Radio:
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
The Erika Enigma
Posted: 05:57 PM 27 August 2015
Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been of very little help in determining both the future intensity and the forecast track of this sheared tropical cyclone - both the early and the long range models have been all over the place with this system. Some of this erratic model output has surfaced in the NHC forecast which at times has seemed to be just as erratic, but if you live by the model.... To be fair, they have to come up with something every six hours whereas we have no such requirement.
When dealing with the tropics there are times (frequent times actually) when persistence is not only the best solution but often the only realistic solution so before I chastise the NHC too harshly I'll wait awhile and see how this all plays out. When forecasting hurricanes, the hardest thing to do is to have patience - when something is expected to happen but it doesn't, if you force yourself to wait a little longer the event that you expected, i.e., a turn to the northwest or something like that, eventually will. In other words the forecast idea was generally pretty good, but the timing was off.
Where is Erika likely to go - and will Erika survive to do it? Right now there are many options and all of them are realistic based on where the tropical cyclone is and what the environment looks like and how that environment is expected to evolve. Erika could get sheared apart and become an open wave. Erika could hit Puerto Rico and fall apart or survive and just miss Hispaniola. Erika could hit Hispaniola and end the storm track. Which one is the likely solution? Right now I have no firm idea - so I'll be patient for a little while longer. At Erika's current speed I certainly have enough time to do that. Erika still has to deal with a significant amount of windshear but, since the shear is primarily in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the system has been dealing with the shear rather well so far and it will probably continue to do so as long as the LLCC remains intact.