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#96L odds now down to just 10% per NHC, as upper-level winds and interaction with the Greater Antilles has been too much to handle
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 34 (Michael) , Major: 34 (Michael) Florida - Any: 34 (Michael) Major: 34 (Michael)
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November Waves and Lows

Posted: 02:59 PM 10 November 2018 | | Add Comment


Above: Visible satellite of two areas of interest early morning Nov 10. Base map courtesy Weathernerds.org

A couple of unseasonably impressive waves in the Tropical Atlantic have the potential for some development next week, with steering currents that could push one or more near or over portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and/or Bermuda.

The most impressive wave is presently located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, and has caught the attention of NHC as well as several of the better models for development - now at 40% within 5 days per NHC

Another feature, a trough centered about halfway between the above referenced wave and the Lesser Antilles, is not presently flagged by NHC for potential, but could be. Although models analyze conditions as less ideal for TC genesis than for the wave to its east, it is looking very impressive, suggesting that this disturbance is more vigorous and/or the environment is more conducive than models think.

Both of these features are likely to produce moderate to heavy showers and strong, gusty winds over populated portions of the SW Atlantic regardless of development.

This post will be updated with any Invest tags and TC numbers as warranted.

96L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 96L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 96L


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


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Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 96L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 96L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 96L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 96L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 96L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Facebook Update Posted
02:45 pm 15-Oct-2018 EDT

Mark Sudduth Oct 15 Update (First since Michael)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq79BwjNQlQ

Facebook Update Posted
01:07 pm 13-Oct-2018 EDT

Hurricane Leslie making a final run of it today - all the way to Portugal- while beginning to undergo merger with a front and extra-tropical transition. Leslie, it's been real. And a really long time reading your advisories..

Facebook Update Posted
11:11 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

From Mark Sudduth/Hurricane track. Unmanned gopro recording of Mexico beach across the street from the (now former) Toucan's- Mexico Beach, Florida during the height of the storm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3ofAJSqpLM

Facebook Update Posted
10:41 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/michael/index.html#17/29.76508/-85.40288
After Michael satellite photos. One of the most striking things is new cuts in St. Joseph's Peninsula (now an island) along Cape San Blas rd.

Facebook Update Posted
08:05 pm 11-Oct-2018 EDT

So far About 1.2 Million power outages reported from Michael

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