Atlantic Slowly Reawakening as Heart of Season Nears
Posted: 04:27 PM 10 August 2018 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 04:49 PM 10-Aug EDT
As expected, a non-tropical low has formed in the north-central Atlantic and is showing some signs of being able to transition into a sub-trop or tropical cyclone. This system is now being tracked as an Invest, 98L, but is no threat to the Americas while it meanders over the subtropical Atlantic.
Elsewhere, the weak disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa has been decimated and is now given a near-zero chance of developing.
Ciel
Original Entry
The climatological heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is now just about a week away, generally thought of as mid-August trough mid-October, and while 2018 is expected by most specialists to end up with far fewer named storms, hurricanes and majors than last year, "it only takes one." Now, while it is still quiet, is a great time to do hurricane preparedness, so when the peak does come, and if a significant storm approaches, there will be less to worry about.
And all is not quiet. As of today, August 10, NHC is now focusing on two features. One, an expected development of a non-tropical low out in the central Atlantic that could acquire sub-tropical or tropical status much like pre-Debby did. This feature should not be a threat to the Americas. The other, a disturbance located about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, could slowly develop next week as it travels west-northwest towards the Caribbean.
Ernesto Event Related Links
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Ernesto - New for 2018
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ernesto
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ernesto
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ernesto (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Ernesto
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ernesto
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ernesto -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Invest 99L Event Related Links
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 99L - New for 2018
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Hawaiian Media:
TV:
Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)
Newspaper:
Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)
Other:
Facebook Update Posted
07:49 am 17-Aug-2018 EDT
#Ernesto expected to be Post-Trop by tonight. #99L falling apart as it enters "the graveyard" of E Caribbean. Watching #Lane in E Pac.
Facebook Update Posted
04:35 pm 16-Aug-2018 EDT
Storm Upgraded:Subtropical Storm #ERNESTO toTropical Storm #ERNESTO 43.0N 41.0W Wind 45MPH Moving NE at 18 MPH https://t.co/0wuYNsM6Wu
Facebook Update Posted
09:45 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT
Eresto Staying out to Sea. 99L is a low development chance (20%) system approaching the eastern Caribbean.
Facebook Update Posted
01:16 pm 15-Aug-2018 EDT
Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms in the Central N. Atlantic, no threat to land areas.
Facebook Update Posted
05:39 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT
Subtropical Depression 5 forms in the Central Atlantic from 98L, no threat to land areas.
Facebook Update Posted
03:02 am 15-Aug-2018 EDT
#98L becoming a fully Sub-Tropical Cyclone and may be named later this morning, but no threat to US land as it heads NE over cooling waters
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
Skeetobite's storm track maps
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Experimental forecast storm probabilities from Dr. Alan Brammer
Goes 16 Satellite Images (new for 2017)
College of DuPage Animated Goes 16 loop of Gulf of Mexico
Large Color Southeast Satellite Image
Interactive Wundermap
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
NOAA Historical Track Maps - Create your own tracking maps.
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Storms From Previous Years (Unisys)
IR - Vis - WV - Loop - TWC IR - Color IR - Loop - SSTs - Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
NHC/TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF Tropical Tidbits model page (GFS + more)
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
American Weather/Raleighwx model page, Instant Weather Maps Models
Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) , Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams) , Mike Watkins / HurricaneAnalytics.com, WXRisk, TropicalAtlantic, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Hardcoreweather, StormPulse (Matthew Wensing), , Mike's Weather Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - 28 Storms Ham Weather, Suncam TV (Streaming Video/cams), Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Flhurricane Ustream Video Stream (Active only in certain events)
CFHC Weather Stations: Orlando (Universal) - Cocoa (Lake Poinsette) -
Even more on the links page.
