Not expecting any tropical development this week.
CFHC 1995-2005 * 10 Years of Tracking Storms
Watching the Gulf, but Not Expecting anything for the week.Posted: 08:10 AM 26 June 2009 | 38 Comments | Add | Newest: 03:17 PM 02-Jul EDT
5:30PM EDT Update 28 Jun 2009
Although there are a few things to watch in the tropics, the set up this week seems to prevent any tropical development.
93L has nothing more going for it than a wave axis at the moment, and looks like it won't do much other than cause some rain (even that won't be all that much). The satellite presentation, surrounding conditions, and an oncoming front arriving around Tuesday should finish whatever is left off.
10:40PM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The Wave known as 93L has not persisted much today, models are no longer predicting development, and neither are we. We'll watch what remains, but it's real chance has come and gone. Satellite indicates northerly shear may be starting to form in the Gulf, which will further diminish any chance of development.
Elsewhere in the tropics, thankfully, there isn't much to watch. Things can change, but until then enjoy the Independence Day week (In the USA)!
7:00AM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The wave (93L) in the western Caribbean Sea has decreased in convection overnight, which lowers the chances for development soon, there is still enough organization to keep it worth watching. Most of the model runs have lowered its projected intensity for it in the Gulf, which is good news.
There is still a 50-70% chance this system will not develop, and until a low level circulation has formed, it will not. Signs of it are showing just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan. But in general, the system is not looking all that great. It likely will not develop today,.
If the general system persists until reaching the Gulf (it may just clip or pass to the east of the Yucatan) it has a chance to develop then. But for today, it looks like it won't reach tropical status.
If a circulation center doesn't form by sometime in the Gulf it will just mean rain for Florida.
Those in the Eastern Gulf should continue to monitor this into next week.
6:15PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
93L is maintaining itself well, and the chance of development remains around 30-50%. More model runs are coming out which indicates the eastern Gulf of Mexcio will be most likely affected by whatever happens around Tuesday or Wednesday. As it is not completely developed, things may change.
If it persists through the evening into tomorrow, and a true low level circulation forms, then it's open to become a named storm.
The movement may depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails,.the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast.
2PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
The wave in the west Caribbean (93L) has organized a bit this morning, more around the center than previously. It looks like it will not develop enough in time to be named before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will likely be on the upswing when it does.
What is more interesting is what happens after it moves near or across the tip of the Yucatan, most likely into the Southern Gulf. If it survives that, Once there, chances improve quite a bit that this system will develop, meaning those along the Gulf Coast will want to watch this one. Some longer range models indicate the eastern Gulf will want to keep watch on it.
More updates to come...
What do you think it will do? Let us know in the 93L Lounge.
Original Update
There is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that is running roughly from the Cayman Islands toward Honduras, moving generally west. Conditions around the system are slightly on the favorable side, so it has a bit of a chance to develop. It only has until overnight tonight to develop, however, as by then it will have reached the Yucatan Peninsula.
It has about a 20-30% shot, but its looking rather well this morning. As of 8AM, it is being tracked as an official Invest, designated 93L. This is worth watching to see if it develops today, as this area is a prime area for Development in late June.
The National Hurricane center in their Outlook is focusing on the wave (surface low), rather than the Mid Level Circulation, at the moment, but both may work their way together. Currently the convection (to the northeast) is away from the center (which is further to the south and west) and may be dispersing. This helps to keep the system from developing at all, which is the most likely outcome. If it survives the Yucatan, it will be worth watching then as it may be near the western or central Gulf of Mexico.
More to come....
93L Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
Although there are a few things to watch in the tropics, the set up this week seems to prevent any tropical development.
93L has nothing more going for it than a wave axis at the moment, and looks like it won't do much other than cause some rain (even that won't be all that much). The satellite presentation, surrounding conditions, and an oncoming front arriving around Tuesday should finish whatever is left off.
10:40PM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The Wave known as 93L has not persisted much today, models are no longer predicting development, and neither are we. We'll watch what remains, but it's real chance has come and gone. Satellite indicates northerly shear may be starting to form in the Gulf, which will further diminish any chance of development.
Elsewhere in the tropics, thankfully, there isn't much to watch. Things can change, but until then enjoy the Independence Day week (In the USA)!
7:00AM EDT Update 27 Jun 2009
The wave (93L) in the western Caribbean Sea has decreased in convection overnight, which lowers the chances for development soon, there is still enough organization to keep it worth watching. Most of the model runs have lowered its projected intensity for it in the Gulf, which is good news.
There is still a 50-70% chance this system will not develop, and until a low level circulation has formed, it will not. Signs of it are showing just off the eastern coast of the Yucatan. But in general, the system is not looking all that great. It likely will not develop today,.
If the general system persists until reaching the Gulf (it may just clip or pass to the east of the Yucatan) it has a chance to develop then. But for today, it looks like it won't reach tropical status.
If a circulation center doesn't form by sometime in the Gulf it will just mean rain for Florida.
Those in the Eastern Gulf should continue to monitor this into next week.
6:15PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
93L is maintaining itself well, and the chance of development remains around 30-50%. More model runs are coming out which indicates the eastern Gulf of Mexcio will be most likely affected by whatever happens around Tuesday or Wednesday. As it is not completely developed, things may change.
If it persists through the evening into tomorrow, and a true low level circulation forms, then it's open to become a named storm.
The movement may depend on how rapidly the ridge to the northwest of the system develops vs the trough to the northeast of the system. If the ridge prevails,.the system should move more to the northwest, however, if the trough prevails the system should eventually move more northeast. Currently the low level tropical model suite moves the system to the northwest whereas the deeper models (HWRF, GFS) that incorporate the upper level flow eventually move the system to the northeast.
2PM EDT Update 26 Jun 2009
The wave in the west Caribbean (93L) has organized a bit this morning, more around the center than previously. It looks like it will not develop enough in time to be named before it reaches the Yucatan, but it will likely be on the upswing when it does.
What is more interesting is what happens after it moves near or across the tip of the Yucatan, most likely into the Southern Gulf. If it survives that, Once there, chances improve quite a bit that this system will develop, meaning those along the Gulf Coast will want to watch this one. Some longer range models indicate the eastern Gulf will want to keep watch on it.
More updates to come...
What do you think it will do? Let us know in the 93L Lounge.
Original Update
There is a tropical wave in the Western Caribbean that is running roughly from the Cayman Islands toward Honduras, moving generally west. Conditions around the system are slightly on the favorable side, so it has a bit of a chance to develop. It only has until overnight tonight to develop, however, as by then it will have reached the Yucatan Peninsula.
It has about a 20-30% shot, but its looking rather well this morning. As of 8AM, it is being tracked as an official Invest, designated 93L. This is worth watching to see if it develops today, as this area is a prime area for Development in late June.
The National Hurricane center in their Outlook is focusing on the wave (surface low), rather than the Mid Level Circulation, at the moment, but both may work their way together. Currently the convection (to the northeast) is away from the center (which is further to the south and west) and may be dispersing. This helps to keep the system from developing at all, which is the most likely outcome. If it survives the Yucatan, it will be worth watching then as it may be near the western or central Gulf of Mexico.
More to come....
93L Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 93L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
[Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop)
In this afternoon's Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook, the Hurricane Center has pointed out an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche.
It has a 20% chance or lower of actually forming, but it ends a quiet spell in the Atlantic Tropics. In the East Pacific, Andres has formed as well.
The system in the Bay of Campeche has a relatively short window to form, and likely it will not. It's mostly a mid-level system currently, and has no real organization at the surface. It's likely to enhance rain in Southern Texas, but probably won't affect the Houston area or northern Texas. Development isn't expected.
It hasn't been designated an official invest yet, so there are no models for it currently.
More to come as it occurs.
It has a 20% chance or lower of actually forming, but it ends a quiet spell in the Atlantic Tropics. In the East Pacific, Andres has formed as well.
The system in the Bay of Campeche has a relatively short window to form, and likely it will not. It's mostly a mid-level system currently, and has no real organization at the surface. It's likely to enhance rain in Southern Texas, but probably won't affect the Houston area or northern Texas. Development isn't expected.
It hasn't been designated an official invest yet, so there are no models for it currently.
More to come as it occurs.
2009 Hurricane Season Starts TodayPosted: 12:00 AM 01 June 2009 | 48 Comments | Add | Newest: 04:55 PM 22-Jun EDT
Original, June 1st Update
Today is the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We have had one depression form before the start, but that is no indicator of the rest of the season. There are signs that an El Nino event is arriving, and if so it tends to reduce overall hurricane activity. However, it only takes one strong storm to ruin your day, and they can occur even in otherwise slow years. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is a great example of that.
This year flhurricane is gearing up to watch another year, and gradually improving the site, we are still working on new features for this year, and you will see them start to pop up as time goes on. We appreciate all the site donators as well, it still is an expensive site to run and maintain and we carry a extreme load of traffic during storm events, mostly for people checking in on the hurricane data and information we provide. If you like the site and want to help see it continue, check out our donations page.
If a major hurricane approaches an area in the United states we will have pages geared to that, including streaming media for that area (like with the Hurricane Ike coverage wall last year). Recorded animations of webcams, radars, and more as storm approaches, real time updated hurricane data, plots, maps, coordinates, and more. Directed discussions, and more interactivity.
The focus this year is to try to show the most relevant information at the time, which is a difficult job, and keep it easy. (You may have noticed the highly interactive site with advisories and radars and other mouse over tooltips for all sorts of things, to attempt the relevant information at hand.) And try to keep misinformation and hype to a minimum. Despite this, some areas will see not much from storms, while others may see a great deal. There is an active wiki attached to the site for the links, general info, and is open for new pages. Feel free to log in and update things there.
This year's storm names are 2009: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter , Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (List I) . One depression has already formed this year, but no named systems have occurred yet. June is usually a quiet month. Mid August through mid to late September is the usual peak of the season.
Here are some preparedness tips that you can think about now:
Note one major difference this year with preparedness is the digital TV transition which will break most older battery operated televisions. Although there are a few battery operated TVs that now have digital capability all reports so far indicate that they are rather poor quality wise and more expensive (~$30 vs $150) (relative to standard battery operated TVs)
Proper hurricane preparation can make the difference between a minor aggravation and a major catastrophe. Since June first is the start of hurricane season, there is no better time than the present to stock up on supplies. Click here for essentials that should be included on your checklist:
Emergency numbers
Insurance policy paperwork
Lumber and nails for boarding up windows
A week’s supply or water (generally 2 quarts to 1 gallon per person per day)
Ice
Cooler/Ice chest
Beverages (powered, canned or instant)
Cereal
Prepared canned goods (soup, vegetables, fruit, Vienna sausages)
Snack foods such as nuts, chips, crackers and cookies
Spreads such as peanut butter and jelly
Bread
Dried fruits and raw vegetables
Dry and canned pet food
Baby food and formula
Manual can opener
Bottle opener
Pocket knife
Napkins and paper plates
Plastic cups and plastic silverware
Extra batteries
Flashlights and bulbs
Battery operated TV or radio
Wind up or battery powered clock
Garbage bags
Toilet paper
A few changes of clothes and sturdy shoes
Extra pair of contacts and contact solution
If you live within seventy-five miles of the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, you need to have a hurricane plan. The main things you will need to decide on once notified of a hurricane threat are when you’re going to evacuate, how you’re going to take care of yourself and your family during and after the storm and how you’re going to protect your house and personal belongings.
Communication is Key
• Choose at least one friend or family member located out of town to be the emergency contact. Make sure every member of the family has a piece of paper with that person’s contact information and knows to call him or her if they get lost or anything bad happens. Call the designated contact before the weather turns ugly and tell that person your hurricane plan.
• Make sure everyone has important numbers and e-mail addresses programmed into their cell phones and knows how to send text messages and e-mails from their cell phones. (Keep in mind if the storm is strong enough there may be damage to phone towers and phone service may become temporarily unavailable.)
Should you stay or should you go? What to know when trying to decide whether to evacuate.
First, you will need to know if you live in an evacuation zone. To find out, you’re your emergency management office, check the emergency management office website or call your city hall. There are three ways it could go: You will either be able to make the decision yourself whether to evacuate, you will almost always be ordered to evacuate for a hurricane approaching from the water and possibly other directions or you will only be ordered to evacuate for strong storms approaching from the water and not from other directions.
It is strongly advised to leave your home if there is any chance a storm surge could reach it. Storm surges are deadly and not something to take a chance with. Seek an inland shelter or stay with family inland and away from the storm’s path. (You may want to include…) The following problems can result from storm surges:
• Cars left at street level or a lower level or a parking garage will more than likely be ruined
• Streets will be flooded and sand and debris may block passage for emergency vehicles
• It is very likely that the power, water and phone service will be out
• The causeway or access road to the mainland may be temporarily cut off.
• The government may not be able to provide security.
• You may be stuck and on your own in an unpleasant environment for an extended period of time before assistance arrives.
Thanks for checking our site, and let us know any suggestions, problems, or questions in the site forum. You can check the forecast lounge for making guesses about how the year will play out, and add a comment to this article here to let all of us know how prepared (or not) you are for the season.
As we start this season, there is nothing worth noting in the tropics. You can check Jim Williams at Hurricane City for his season kickoff show at 8PM EDT tonight.
As usual, take the word of the National Hurricane Center above any other web site on Hurricanes , including here. We have several mets that work with the site including Ed Dunham and Clark Evans, but we are not official!
As for other sites, there are some really good ones, see the bottom of the main page! My favorites include Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins at hurricanetrack, Jim Williams at Hurricane City, and Jeff Masters at weather underground. But there is so much more too! I recommend getting informed through a variety of sources, but always treat the word of the National Hurricane Center above all others. When an event comes close to your area local media and government is the best bet for your particular area.
Today is the first day of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. We have had one depression form before the start, but that is no indicator of the rest of the season. There are signs that an El Nino event is arriving, and if so it tends to reduce overall hurricane activity. However, it only takes one strong storm to ruin your day, and they can occur even in otherwise slow years. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 is a great example of that.
This year flhurricane is gearing up to watch another year, and gradually improving the site, we are still working on new features for this year, and you will see them start to pop up as time goes on. We appreciate all the site donators as well, it still is an expensive site to run and maintain and we carry a extreme load of traffic during storm events, mostly for people checking in on the hurricane data and information we provide. If you like the site and want to help see it continue, check out our donations page.
If a major hurricane approaches an area in the United states we will have pages geared to that, including streaming media for that area (like with the Hurricane Ike coverage wall last year). Recorded animations of webcams, radars, and more as storm approaches, real time updated hurricane data, plots, maps, coordinates, and more. Directed discussions, and more interactivity.
The focus this year is to try to show the most relevant information at the time, which is a difficult job, and keep it easy. (You may have noticed the highly interactive site with advisories and radars and other mouse over tooltips for all sorts of things, to attempt the relevant information at hand.) And try to keep misinformation and hype to a minimum. Despite this, some areas will see not much from storms, while others may see a great deal. There is an active wiki attached to the site for the links, general info, and is open for new pages. Feel free to log in and update things there.
This year's storm names are 2009: Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter , Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda (List I) . One depression has already formed this year, but no named systems have occurred yet. June is usually a quiet month. Mid August through mid to late September is the usual peak of the season.
Here are some preparedness tips that you can think about now:
Note one major difference this year with preparedness is the digital TV transition which will break most older battery operated televisions. Although there are a few battery operated TVs that now have digital capability all reports so far indicate that they are rather poor quality wise and more expensive (~$30 vs $150) (relative to standard battery operated TVs)
Proper hurricane preparation can make the difference between a minor aggravation and a major catastrophe. Since June first is the start of hurricane season, there is no better time than the present to stock up on supplies. Click here for essentials that should be included on your checklist:
Emergency numbers
Insurance policy paperwork
Lumber and nails for boarding up windows
A week’s supply or water (generally 2 quarts to 1 gallon per person per day)
Ice
Cooler/Ice chest
Beverages (powered, canned or instant)
Cereal
Prepared canned goods (soup, vegetables, fruit, Vienna sausages)
Snack foods such as nuts, chips, crackers and cookies
Spreads such as peanut butter and jelly
Bread
Dried fruits and raw vegetables
Dry and canned pet food
Baby food and formula
Manual can opener
Bottle opener
Pocket knife
Napkins and paper plates
Plastic cups and plastic silverware
Extra batteries
Flashlights and bulbs
Battery operated TV or radio
Wind up or battery powered clock
Garbage bags
Toilet paper
A few changes of clothes and sturdy shoes
Extra pair of contacts and contact solution
If you live within seventy-five miles of the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico, you need to have a hurricane plan. The main things you will need to decide on once notified of a hurricane threat are when you’re going to evacuate, how you’re going to take care of yourself and your family during and after the storm and how you’re going to protect your house and personal belongings.
Communication is Key
• Choose at least one friend or family member located out of town to be the emergency contact. Make sure every member of the family has a piece of paper with that person’s contact information and knows to call him or her if they get lost or anything bad happens. Call the designated contact before the weather turns ugly and tell that person your hurricane plan.
• Make sure everyone has important numbers and e-mail addresses programmed into their cell phones and knows how to send text messages and e-mails from their cell phones. (Keep in mind if the storm is strong enough there may be damage to phone towers and phone service may become temporarily unavailable.)
Should you stay or should you go? What to know when trying to decide whether to evacuate.
First, you will need to know if you live in an evacuation zone. To find out, you’re your emergency management office, check the emergency management office website or call your city hall. There are three ways it could go: You will either be able to make the decision yourself whether to evacuate, you will almost always be ordered to evacuate for a hurricane approaching from the water and possibly other directions or you will only be ordered to evacuate for strong storms approaching from the water and not from other directions.
It is strongly advised to leave your home if there is any chance a storm surge could reach it. Storm surges are deadly and not something to take a chance with. Seek an inland shelter or stay with family inland and away from the storm’s path. (You may want to include…) The following problems can result from storm surges:
• Cars left at street level or a lower level or a parking garage will more than likely be ruined
• Streets will be flooded and sand and debris may block passage for emergency vehicles
• It is very likely that the power, water and phone service will be out
• The causeway or access road to the mainland may be temporarily cut off.
• The government may not be able to provide security.
• You may be stuck and on your own in an unpleasant environment for an extended period of time before assistance arrives.
Thanks for checking our site, and let us know any suggestions, problems, or questions in the site forum. You can check the forecast lounge for making guesses about how the year will play out, and add a comment to this article here to let all of us know how prepared (or not) you are for the season.
As we start this season, there is nothing worth noting in the tropics. You can check Jim Williams at Hurricane City for his season kickoff show at 8PM EDT tonight.
As usual, take the word of the National Hurricane Center above any other web site on Hurricanes , including here. We have several mets that work with the site including Ed Dunham and Clark Evans, but we are not official!
As for other sites, there are some really good ones, see the bottom of the main page! My favorites include Mark Sudduth and Mike Watkins at hurricanetrack, Jim Williams at Hurricane City, and Jeff Masters at weather underground. But there is so much more too! I recommend getting informed through a variety of sources, but always treat the word of the National Hurricane Center above all others. When an event comes close to your area local media and government is the best bet for your particular area.
Tropical Depression One Forms East of the CarolinasPosted: 12:00 PM 26 May 2009 | 10 Comments | Add | Newest: 10:17 PM 28-May EDT
11AM 28 May 2009
And Tropical Depression One is born. The NHC discussion indicates they think it will become a Tropical Storm before moving over colder waters in the Atlantic. If Tropical Depression One does become a Tropical Storm, it will be the fourth early season Tropical Storm to develop in the last decade (Tropical Storm Arthur in May 2008, Subtropical Storm Andrea in May, 2007, and Tropical Storm Ana in 2003).
8AM 28 May 2009
The low east of the Carolinas is holding together impressively, it is about to enter the Gulf Stream, It still has a low (30% or less) chance of forming into something, although if it does it likely will be short lived and continue to move away from the United States.
Convection has bubbled up this morning, which indicates it may be trying to organize, but this is slightly away from the center of circulation.
Original Update
A new low, designated Invest 91L, has formed east of the Carolinas. It is unlikely to develop into a depression, but it is worth watching. Again, a bit early before the start of the season on June 1st.
In the past, when we have seen early attempts at development we've wound up with mostly quiet Junes, and I do not see anything different about it.
91 should just bring a bit of rain and breezy conditions to the Carolina coastline.
This is hurricane preparedness week over at the National Hurricane Center. Check it out for some good information regarding Hurricane Preparedness.
TD#1 Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#1
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#1 -- RAMMB Info
And Tropical Depression One is born. The NHC discussion indicates they think it will become a Tropical Storm before moving over colder waters in the Atlantic. If Tropical Depression One does become a Tropical Storm, it will be the fourth early season Tropical Storm to develop in the last decade (Tropical Storm Arthur in May 2008, Subtropical Storm Andrea in May, 2007, and Tropical Storm Ana in 2003).
8AM 28 May 2009
The low east of the Carolinas is holding together impressively, it is about to enter the Gulf Stream, It still has a low (30% or less) chance of forming into something, although if it does it likely will be short lived and continue to move away from the United States.
Convection has bubbled up this morning, which indicates it may be trying to organize, but this is slightly away from the center of circulation.
Original Update
A new low, designated Invest 91L, has formed east of the Carolinas. It is unlikely to develop into a depression, but it is worth watching. Again, a bit early before the start of the season on June 1st.
In the past, when we have seen early attempts at development we've wound up with mostly quiet Junes, and I do not see anything different about it.
91 should just bring a bit of rain and breezy conditions to the Carolina coastline.
This is hurricane preparedness week over at the National Hurricane Center. Check it out for some good information regarding Hurricane Preparedness.
TD#1 Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD#1
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD#1 (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD#1 -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
[Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop)
Cuban Radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
12:30AM Update - 05/23/09
Just as it seemed that the gulf low was written off, it has managed to develop some convection near the center. The low is still disorganized not close to being classified at this time, but the NHC has given the system a 30 - 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or so before it makes landfall.
10AM Update - 05/21/09
Upper level low pressure system beginning to develop a surface reflection near 25.5N 86W at 21/13Z and it is currently drifting to the north northeast. Upper level steering is weak (and the upper low is cut off) but forward motion should become more north northwesterly to northwesterly in the next day or two - perhaps more toward the Alabama/Mississippi state line - keeping Florida in the soup for another day or two. Flooding potential likely to continue in east central Florida through Friday with additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas.
ED
7:00 PM Update 5/19/09
Chances for development have fallen off greatly, but we are still getting loads of rain in Central Florida.
10:00 PM Update 5/18/09
Nothing much new to report, models project the system to move more northward then westward across Florida. There is less than a 30% chance of anything developing from this system. Rain over Florida will continue to be enhanced by the system.
Winds will stay brisk because of the pressure gradient, closer to a subtropical or extratropical system.
Site fixes tonight include the animated model plots working (see bottom of this article), and a few other minor tweaks. General Info is still broken currently. (Pre-Season disturbance is rushing a few things)
2:30 PM Update 5/18/09
The system mentioned here is being tracked as Invest 90L now, being early, automated tracking here and on some other sites may take a while to show up.
Approx 22.4N+76.0W (Near the Bahamas)
More to come soon...
Original Update
It looks to be a wet week coming up across most of Florida.
A low pressure system near Cuba looks likely to interact with a frontal boundary causing a great deal of rain for mid-week here in Florida, with the gradient making it a bit windy. Although development isn't entirely likely, the system currently over Cuba has the potential to become somewhat tropical, although it likely will remain just a low pressure area.
Models (such as the GFS and EURO -- see some Here) currently project it to move into or just west of south Florida then stay west of Florida and move it into the Central Gulf near Alabama to Missouri. This may change later. There are no indications of strengthening, but it is worth watching. The front and the gradient should keep things wet and breezy in Florida through the middle of the week. This is good news for the fires in the Central Florida area, as long as the rain comes with the gradient winds.
Even though Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 1st, we will be watching it.
91L Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
Just as it seemed that the gulf low was written off, it has managed to develop some convection near the center. The low is still disorganized not close to being classified at this time, but the NHC has given the system a 30 - 50% chance to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or so before it makes landfall.
10AM Update - 05/21/09
Upper level low pressure system beginning to develop a surface reflection near 25.5N 86W at 21/13Z and it is currently drifting to the north northeast. Upper level steering is weak (and the upper low is cut off) but forward motion should become more north northwesterly to northwesterly in the next day or two - perhaps more toward the Alabama/Mississippi state line - keeping Florida in the soup for another day or two. Flooding potential likely to continue in east central Florida through Friday with additional heavy rainfall over already saturated areas.
ED
7:00 PM Update 5/19/09
Chances for development have fallen off greatly, but we are still getting loads of rain in Central Florida.
10:00 PM Update 5/18/09
Nothing much new to report, models project the system to move more northward then westward across Florida. There is less than a 30% chance of anything developing from this system. Rain over Florida will continue to be enhanced by the system.
Winds will stay brisk because of the pressure gradient, closer to a subtropical or extratropical system.
Site fixes tonight include the animated model plots working (see bottom of this article), and a few other minor tweaks. General Info is still broken currently. (Pre-Season disturbance is rushing a few things)
2:30 PM Update 5/18/09
The system mentioned here is being tracked as Invest 90L now, being early, automated tracking here and on some other sites may take a while to show up.
Approx 22.4N+76.0W (Near the Bahamas)
More to come soon...
Original Update
It looks to be a wet week coming up across most of Florida.
A low pressure system near Cuba looks likely to interact with a frontal boundary causing a great deal of rain for mid-week here in Florida, with the gradient making it a bit windy. Although development isn't entirely likely, the system currently over Cuba has the potential to become somewhat tropical, although it likely will remain just a low pressure area.
Models (such as the GFS and EURO -- see some Here) currently project it to move into or just west of south Florida then stay west of Florida and move it into the Central Gulf near Alabama to Missouri. This may change later. There are no indications of strengthening, but it is worth watching. The front and the gradient should keep things wet and breezy in Florida through the middle of the week. This is good news for the fires in the Central Florida area, as long as the rain comes with the gradient winds.
Even though Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 1st, we will be watching it.
91L Event Related Links
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
[Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop)
Cuban Radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
