6:15 AM EDT Update Thursday, 2 September 2010

Hurricane Earl has probably peaked earlier this morning, but remains a strong category 4 storm. It is forecast to come very close (40-60 miles) of the outer banks, still as a major hurricane. Any deviation to the west would bring the worst of it onshore. Those in the warning areas should pay attention to local media and officials about any evacuations or recommendations.

Today should be spent in final preparations and leaving as conditions will begin to deteriorate in North Carolina in the late afternoon or evening. Closest approach to North Carolina would likely bit in pre-dawn hours tomorrow.

After passing near/over North Carolina, Earl is forecast to stay offshore the mid Atlantic, but Nantucket has a chance to get part of the western eyewall. Because of this hurricane watches are in effect now (in addition to the other warnings/watches) from north of the NC/VA Border to Cape Henlopen in Delaware. And now also from westport to Plymouth, MA (along with cape code/Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket) Those in Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket would be wise to begin preparations now.



Wind fields tend to expand when the storms get further north, so there is a good chance a large area in the northeast may experience some strong winds.

Beyond that, Extreme Northeast Maine may be a landfall, and Canada will either way, and it is likely Earl still will be a hurricane when it does.

Fiona is on the out to sea path, but has a chance to come close to Bermuda (on the west side). Therefore Bermuda is under a Tropical Storm watch for FIona.

Gaston is remaining weak this morning, but expected to continue to track west. Gaston is moving much slower than the other storms, and may not reach closer to the Leeward islands until mid-late next week. Odds favor Gaston not going out to sea, so it will be one to watch then.

Beyond Gaston is another wave (not being tracked as a proper invest yet) that has a 10% chance to develop over the next 48 hours, but more of one later on.

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA
Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Northeast US Radar Links Northeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Dover, DE Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Mt. Holly, NJ Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Upton/NYC/Long Island, NY Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Boston/Cape Cod, MA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Portland, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Carabou, ME Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
Flhurricane Recording of Radar (and more) of Earl US Approach
Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Media:
WECT 6TV - Wilmington, NC
WITN 7 - Eastern North Carolina TV (NBC)
WCTI 12 - Eastern North Carolina (ABC)
WNCT TV 9 - Eastern North Carolina (CBS)
Wavy 10 (NBC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA TV
WTKR 3 (CBS) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA
WVEC 13 (ABC) - Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA


Papers:
Outer Banks Sentinel
Wilmington Star News Online
Hampton Roads Pilot

Keep up with where Mark Sudduth (Hurricanetrack.com) is as he drives around the Outer Banks of North Carolina

Canadian Hurricane Centre

Flhurricane Recording of French Antilles radar for FIona Approach
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Fiona Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Gaston Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gaston
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gaston (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gaston
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gaston -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)



8:30PM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Recon airfract has found a lower pressure in Earl of 932mb, which indicates Earl is continuing to strengthen.

Those still on the outer banks are highly recommended not to take the risk of a major storm approaching your area and leave.

Odds favor the center of it staying offshore, but the large size will still pound hurricane force winds along parts of the coast.






6:00PM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Earl has continued to strengthen with maximum sustained winds reaching 135MPH and Tropical Depression 9 has become Gaston, the 7th tropical storm of the season.



Meanwhile Fiona is struggling and may not survive to the weekend. Since Gaston remains far from land, all eyes remain on Earl with Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings stretching from North Carolina to the New Hampshire border.

There is another wave just off Africa (east of Gaston) that we'll need to watch next week also.

10:30AM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
The wave in the Central Atlantic looks to be upgraded to Tropical Depression 9 at 11AM.

Hurricane Earl was re-upgraded to Category 4 status, and Earl is forecast to remain a major as it goes right next to the outer banks of north Carolina. With a storm of this size, I would not stay on the outer banks if you are there.


8AM EDT Update Wednesday 1 September 2010
Fiona has strengthened a bit since influence from Earl has been decreasing, it is now up to 60MPH Winds.

Chances for Development of the wave in the central Atlantic (98L) have gone up to 80%. This system would be named Gaston, and odds favor the more westerly track.

See original update for Earl information:



Original Update

Hurricane Earl has weakened a bit overnight due to dry air and small amounts of shear, but it is still a major hurricane. Earl is forecast to be at it's closest point to the outer banks of North Carolina Thursday night into Friday morning.

The majority of models keep Earl just offshore, but close enough to cause problems. A few, such as the NOGAPS take it inland into North Carolina. Those in the warning area, In short, prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and you should be looking at local advisories, officials, and Media.

The Hurricane Watches for North Carolina may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings later today.

Those north of there along the coast will want to watch Earl closely for any changes or additional watches and warnings. Especially in Eastern Massachusetts/Cape Cod.

Those in Canada in the forecast track zone should begin to prepare as well.



Tropical Storm FIona is being caught up in the northerly flow from Earl, and currently is just offshore North and East of the Leeward islands, the official forecast takes it northward and eventually stalls near Bermuda, but there is some uncertainty with the forecast so the next day or two is critical for the eventual path of FIona. Fiona will likely stay weak, unless effects from Earl drop off quicker than expected or a center relocation southward happens. Fiona is still very much worth watching.

Tropical Storm warnings and Watches are up for the Leewards for Fiona.

Out east of both is the wave 98L, which now has a 50/50 shot at development over the next few days. Odds favor this going generally westward, so those in the Leewards, again, will have to watch it closely.

Another system just over the west side off Africa also has a chance to develop into next week, and odds favor it moving more westward (Ie not out to sea) as well.

Update - 12AM EDT, 01 September 2010
No significant changes with the 01/03Z bulletins so really not too much to say. Earl continues to move toward the northwest with an eventual turn to the north and north northeast - passing just offshore the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the very early hours of Friday morning and then offshore from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in the early hours of Saturday morning on his way to Nova Scotia (as a Cat I hurricane at that time). Watches are up for the eastern coast of North Carolina, and folks north of that area should closely monitor the progress of this very dangerous hurricane.

Fiona maintains as a minimal Tropical Storm - moving west northwest with a more northwest and northerly turn expected in the next couple of days. Little change in intensity is anticipated, however, because Fiona will pass close to (or through) the northern Leeward Islands, the following Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are in effect:

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS"

Fiona will probably only survive for another two or three days before windshear dissipates the weak cyclone.

Invest 98L continues to maintain good structure in the far eastern Atlantic and the convective activity is increasing. The system still has to struggle with dry air for the next couple of days, but after that the conditions for additional development should improve.
ED

5:00 PM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Watches are up Along North Carolina as the outer banks are in the cone of uncertainty. Odds along with most model guidance keeps Earl's center offshore, but close.

Those in the hurricane watch area should pay attention to local officials and media.

Our friend Mark Sudduth at HurricaneTrack.com is located in Wilmington, NC and will have updates from there.

More to come later...

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Flhurricane Recording of French Antilles radar for FIona Approach
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)


Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Fiona Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

98L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)



5:30 AM EDT Tuesday, 31 August 2010 Update
Hurricane Earl is on the move toward the west northwest and forecast to toward more northwest. On Earl's current track it comes near enough to cause tropical storm force winds from the Carolinas and parts of Cape cod,before moving toward Novia Scotia in Canada. The forecast is for it to stay offshore, but any deviation to the west would bring it inland.

The good news this morning is that it is looking more likely that it will stay offshore since a more northward component is apparent on satellite, but not enough to let guard down. Tropical Storm watches may go up for parts of the Carolinas later today.

However, on the other hand, the fast movement of Fiona behind it may ultimately be enough to nudge Earl more westward. Which is the bad news of the morning (See the image below) Of course it it gets under to the south enough it could "squeeze" it more northward as well.




Tropical Storm Fiona is under conditions that will likely keep it weak or dissipate it, and the current track keeps it quite well out to sea. Fiona is moving too quickly to organize and ramming itself into the influence of Earl, which will likely pull it northward and out to sea.

Odds currently are that Fiona will stay out to sea, but it will still have to be watched until this is certain.

Beyond Fiona, 98L is now being tracked in the East Atlantic, odds are not much will happen with this one, but it has a 10% chance for development. Another wave, currently over Africa, likely has a better chance to develop once over water than 98L does. There are tropical storm Watches up for the Northern Leewards, as they are in the cone. Fiona continues to travel fairly quickly.

Tee last advisory on Danielle was issued at 11 last night.

List of all state/local Emergency management offices

Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
St. Maarten Webcam - flhurricane recording of this cam

St. Maarten Radar

5:45 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl is now a Category 4 hurricane, and has a chance to strengthen some more before it reaches conditions less favorable for development.

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for the Turks and Caicos in the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Watches are up for some of the islands west of there.

Earl is expected to move more northwesterly tomorrow and may get close to the Carolinas before moving more out to sea. However, the cone past 3 days tends to have large errors, so those in the Carolinas northward need to pay very close attention to this system. If Earl nears North Carolina it would be on Friday. Odds favor the system staying offshore of the US coastline, but it still would be close enough to possibly cause windy conditions along the coastline of the Carolinas.




Fiona has developed east of there, and odds are that it will stay out to sea, however the Leewards are in the cone, and will want to watch it. A lot of the forward motion depends on how strong or weak the system remains and when the turn begins. Fiona is moving briskly to the west at 24mph, and is forecast to be at its nearest to the Leewards Wednesday afternoon or evening. There are currently no watches or warnings associated with Fiona, but may later if it appears to impact the islands.

Beyond that, a lot depends on where Earl goes. If Earl moves out quicker, it will give Fiona more of a chance to let the ridge build up and move more west, if it stays slow, it may force Fiona to move out to sea sooner. In short, both systems will need to be watched closely.

And that's not all, another wave off Africa has a chance to develop down the road.

4:45 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Tropical Storm Fiona Has Formed. Odds are likely it will stay out to sea, but it will be a close call and will be worth watching.

Hurricane Earl has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane north of the islands. Carolinas Northward should watch Earl closely.

More to come on both later.

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
St. Maarten Webcam - flhurricane recording of this cam

St. Maarten Radar

Danielle Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Fiona Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fiona
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fiona (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fiona
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fiona -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)


4:30 PM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
It appears the wave in the central Atlantic (97L) may be forming into a tropical depression or storm, and the first advisories will be issued at 5PM.

Meanwhile, Danielle has weakened to a tropical storm.


11 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl is now a Category 3 Hurricane, it will likely come very close to the virgin islands and part of the southern eyewall may impact the virgin islands. The forecast track shifted westward a bit and those from the Carolinas northward should watch the progress of Earl closely. Odds favor it staying offshore, but likely close enough to cause issues, however, forecast errors could bring it inland and those areas will want to watch closely for changes.

The Turks and Caicos islands of the Bahamas are now under a tropical storm watch, as Earl may come close enough to cause tropical storm force winds there.

Anguilla Info From Storm Carib -- Very Strong Winds, reports of damage.

St. Maarten Info from Storm Carib -- Reports of roofs gone, trees down, power out.

Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar


9 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update
Earl's southern Eyewall is over Anguilla, St. Maarten is not very far away either. Power was lost in St. Maarten around 8:23 AM this morning.

Best place on Radar to look at now is on San Juan Radar.

Check Storm Carib for Updates from the islands
7 AM EDT Monday, 30 August 2010 Update

Hurricane Earl is just offshore to the north of Anguilla this morning, avoiding a direct hit on the islands, but close enough to cause some trouble, the forecast takes east of the Bahamas and then near the coast of North Carolina by Friday, and then turns it more northward, staying close to the coast of new England. Because the error could be several hundred miles (in either direction) those along the east coast from the Carolinas northward should pay close attention to earl.

Odds favor it staying offshore, but it would be close.



Danielle is still a hurricane, but likely to drop below hurricane strength soon.

97L did not develop over the weekend, but still has a good chance to over the next few days. The weaker system implies a greater chance for a westward motion and those in the Leewards will want to watch this system as well.


3 PM EDT Sunday, 29 August 2010 Update
Earl is nearing the islands, is roughly 190 miles due east of Barbuda Earl is visible on French Antilles Radar and the center is barely into range now. Earl appears to be moving slightly north of due west, on this track it will barely miss the islands to the north, and thus the Hurricane Warnings for the islands.

Beyond that, odds are the system stays east of the US, but it may be close, anyone in the cone will want to watch the progress of Earl closely.




8:30 AM EDT Sunday, 29 August 2010 Update
According to recon data, Earl has reached hurricane strength. Those in the Leeward islands should take warning preparations now, as conditions will deteriorate throughout the day.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Earl is looking a little more ragged this morning, mainly from influence from Danielle's outflow from the north that is Flattening out the top of this system, and pushing it down and around and up. But it is strengthening, and may inch toward Hurricane later day.

Likely making it stay east of the US, but close enough to keep parts of North Carolina, Maryland and Virginia in the western edge of the Cone. Odds still slightly favor it staying east of the coast, mainly since by then it will be free of Danielle's influence and have a way to wrap around.

Recon is out in Earl now. The next day or two is critical for both the Leewards (on how west it will go), and for how close the system may get to the Carolinas.



However, that is no means a certainty and anyone in the cone needs to watch this system very closely. Those in Hurricane Warning areas in the islands need to pay attention to local media and officials.

The wave east of Earl (97L) is likely to become a depression by 11AM, odds aren't as strong from recurve as the others were, and the impact of Danielle and earl's outflow (much like Danielle pushed Earl a bit further west), so will Earl on what likely will be FIona. Therefore for 97L, the odds are in favor of a US landfall (of what type is unknown), even if has less of a chance to touch the Leewards than Earl did. In other words it may miss the Leeward islands and then turn west. See the forecast Lounge for discussion of 97L.

The timing, if it did make landfall, would be at or just after Labor day. The models suggesting this have been trending that way, and have been the ones that have been more accurate than others this year.

Thankfully there will be plenty of time to watch this one, and we definitely will. Earl will be the focus over the next few days.

Update - 11PM EDT Saturday, 28 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle now located over 350 miles east of Bermuda and accelerating to the northeast at 20mph with sustained winds of 90 knots. Danielle should continue to head northeast and slowly weaken - becoming extratropical in about three days.

At 11PM EDT Tropical Storm Earl was located just over 500 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands with sustained winds of 55 knots and movement to the west at 17 knots. The following Watches/Warnings are now in effect:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...AND SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS

Hurricane conditions are expected over the northern Leeward Islands by Sunday night and these conditions might spread to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Monday night. Storm surge of one to three feet is possible in the northernmost Leeward Islands since Earl is expected to strengthen to a hurricane with 85 to 90 knot sustained winds. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts in the mountains up to 8 inches. Residents in the northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands should prepare for high winds and heavy rain squalls. Residents in Puerto Rico should closely monitor the progress of Earl and be prepared to initiate hurricane plans should the track of Earl move more to the south.

NHC forecasts Earl to pass northeast of Puerto Rico on Tuesday as a Category III major hurricane moving off to the northwest.

Invest 97L is still expected to develop - but it hasn't changed much today. Convection has become a little better organized and the circulation envelope is still quite large. The system is moving rapidly westward at about 22 knots. At 29/00Z the system was located southwest of the Cape Verde Islands at 12.7N 31.9W. Models present various solutions for this system (or none at all like the 18Z GFS), but it seems likely to develop - and we'll have plenty of time to monitor it during the upcoming week.
ED



5PM EDT Saturday, 28 August 2010 update
Tropical Storm Earl seems to be holding its own, even at brisk pace of 23MPH, it is still expected to become a hurricane over the next few days as it nears the Leeward islands in the Caribbean, some of which have tropical storm watches up. Odds still are it will recurve before the east coast of the US, but it could get close enough to cause very rough surf along the east coast this coming week. Those in the cone will want to watch the system very closely.

Those in the Leeward islands and in the cone of uncertaintly will want to watch this system closely,



Daniellie has weakened a bit since yesterday, but continues to move out to sea.

97L has not formed into a depression yet, but probably will so before the weekend is up. This system has the potential to track further west than any of the other systems from the Cape Verde so far, and will be worth watching at the end of next week and beyond. If this were to impact any ares, it would be around sept 5/6.


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop ( Latest Static)
St. Maarten Webcam

Danielle Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

97L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)


5PM EDT Friday, 27 August 2010 update
Tropical Storm watches have been issued for the French Saint Maartin and st. Barthelemy. The Northern Leeward islands are in the Cone for Earl. Odds still favor Earl turning out to sea before (but very close to) the leewards. After that the most likely outcome will for Earl to stay out to sea, but it will be worth watching in case anything changes. Odds are about 87% for the system NOT reaching the US.

Tropical Storm watches also have been issued for Bermuda, as there is a chance they may see Tropical Storm force winds as Danielle moves by, but it will not be close enough for Hurricane force winds.

Note Earl is still most likely to recurve after nearing the Leewards, but 97L which may be Fiona by the end of the weekend, has much less chance to recurve, and may be worth watching by labor day weekend.

Original update
With three systems, including Danielle, which has reached major hurricane status, and jumped up to Category 4 from there, being the first major storm of the season, to Earl, being held back by the Saharan air level, along with a wave east of there (97)L that probably will form tonight or over the weekend, we find none of them likely to affect the US mainland, or even the Caribbean, but there is enough of a chance for those in the Leeward islands to keep close watch.

These systems will cause a fairly good amount of swell along the eastern US Coastline which could bring some rip currents and rough surf to many areas.

Danielle, strong as it is now, is quickly moving toward recurve and out to sea, missing even Bermuda, odds currently are around 98 out of a 100 it does not affect land. Danielle has about another day or two to slowly strengthen even more before encountering more hostile atmospheric conditions that would likely stop it from strengthening or weaken it.

Earl has been held back by atmospheric conditions, but the conditions are improving, and Earl has a good shot at slowly strengthening over the next few days. It has a chance to reach major hurricane by the time it is northeast of the islands. Odds currently are about 51% it will not affect the eastern Caribbean islands directly, and about 85% for not reaching the US. Those in the Northern Leeward islands of the Caribbean will want to watch closely for any changes.

97L has a fairly good shot to develop 60-70% either tonight or tomorrow, following in the steps of the other two systems, it is likely to get further west than the others, but odds still favor this one going out to sea as well. 55% for NOT getting the East Caribbean, 60% for not getting toward the US.. Of the three systems, though, this is the one most prime for change, but it requires the more complex situation to occur, so therefore a bit less likely that it won't recurve before land.
Beyond that there are more waves over Africa, and nothing imminent closer to home.

1:00PM EDT Update - Thursday, 26 August 2010
97L is now being tracked, this is the wave east of Earl, and has a chance to form tomorrow or over the weekend. Odds favor this recurving as well, but has even less confidence than Earl.

7:00AM EDT Update - Thursday, 26 August 2010
There are two active storms in the Atlantic this morning. Hurricane Danielle, which is recurving rather abruptly, and looks like it will miss Bermuda comfortably to the east. Danielle has another window to strengthen tomorrow into Saturday, where it still may reach major status.

Tropical Storm Earl is moving generally west northwest right now. Odds are increasing that it will recurve and miss the Caribbean islands as the weakness between 55 and 60 degrees west looks to be maintained throughout the week. This recurving is quit normal for cape Verde systems. Bermuda may have to watch Earl later, but odds favor it being missed as well. If anything changes we'll note it.

(11 AM Mini Earl Update): The hurricane center mentions a point about Earl (and Danielle) at the 11AM discussion, basically saying if Danielle recurves faster and or more abruptly than forecast, it could give a window for the ridge to reform near earl, keeping it a bit further west than the current track, which would possibly bring the Eastern Caribbean back in play. Odds are against it, but if Earl's forecasted path were to change, that would be one of the reasons why, and something to watch for.

Beyond that, the pattern probably holds into the first part of September, so odds are the wave emerging from the African coast will recurve as well around the same place. But that far out becomes a bit more uncertain. It is possible we'll have three storms to track by the end of the weekend.

The good news is that the recurve pattern looks to last into perhaps the first week of September. But unfortunately after that the pattern may start to change. However, it's still important to be vigilant for anything that develops closer to land is more of a risk, but there is nothing imminent.

The only affect along the US from these systems will be slightly higher surf, which could cause some swells, large waves and rip currents in some areas.

The area in the Gulf missed its chance to develop and will just bring some rain to Texas.



Danielle Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

Earl Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Earl
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Earl (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Earl
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Earl -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)

* Skeetobite hasn't updated 97L yet, actual system is off the coast of Africa *
97L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page (More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR [Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop)


5:00PM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
Tropical Storm Earl has formed in the East Atlantic, it is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. Odds currently favor Earl going out to sea, but the odds are not as solid as they were for Danielle. Those in the Eastern Caribbean islands will want to watch for any changes in the forecast track.

8:00AM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
96L appears to be reaching tropical Depression status this morning on visible satellite imagery and likely will begin advisories on Tropical Depression 7 at 11 AM EDT. Most likely forecast track for it takes it mostly west, then curves north and out to sea well before the Caribbean.

6:30AM EDT Update - Wednesday, 25 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle has maintained itself well overnight and has a chance to strengthen a bit more after a day or two when the upper level low currently negatively affecting Danielle moves more southwesterly.

Track wise, odds still favor no direct impact to land, however Bermuda is in the cone and should watch, but what's most likely is that it should pass enough to the east to avoid the worst of it. Still those in Bermuda should watch closely for any changes.



Model runs that showed a more westerly move last night have moved back to the east, and some much further to the east.

The area behind Danielle (96L) has not yet developed, but still has a chance today to become a depression, and odds still favor it staying away from land areas.

The gulf system has a small chance to develop, but isn't very likely. If it were it wouldn't do it until Friday into the weekend and it won't have much time to strengthen if it does.


8:45PM EDT Update - Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Danielle has weakened a bit today, but is on it's way back to a hurricane tonight and likely will recover.

Odds still favor no US land impact, but Bermuda is in the western forecast cone, and may need to watch the system. Longer range forecasts are a bitty iffy, but still the highest odds keep it away from land.

The wave behind Danielle (96L) Did not develop so far today, but may later tonight or tomorrow. Odds still favor this system staying out to sea as well.

The area in the Gulf has a 10% chance to develop, but is not being tracked as an investigation currently. Odds are that it will not, but if it were it would be Friday into the weekend.

You can find long range discussions/guesses on the Gulf System Here, and the same for Danielle here (including models).

7AM EDT Update - Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Hurricane Danielle has strengthened to a category 2 hurricane overnight, but has lost the eye feature that was visible last night. It has had a bit of dry air intrusion, which may keep the storm from reaching major today. It still has a chance to later, but first Danielle may actually weaken a bit, and may never make it back up that high The forecast track (and odds) still takes it out to sea regardless of strength.

Danielle is forecast to slow forward motion and begin moving more northward. Bermuda is barely in the cone, but chances of direct effects of the system are low for there.

The wave behind Danielle, 96L, may form into a depression later today. This system has a pretty good shot at developing with a 90% chance (as of 80%). It likely won't get as strong as Danielle, but it has a chance to develop none the less. Still, the most likely outcome, currently, for track on this system keeps it out to sea, following in the wake of Danielle.

Those in the Cape Verde Islands themselves, may see some effects from 96L.



Beyond that, another wave may exit the coast of Africa, and that one has a chance to stay further south and west. Those may be worth watching later this week into next week. And there is also possibility something in the Gulf could form closer to home late this weekend into next week, but there is nothing solid there.

The tropics will likely be busy over the next few weeks, so be prepared.

5PM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010
Danielle has become a hurricane, the second of 2010 for the Atlantic. The forecast track keeps it far out to sea from the Caribbean and United States. It is likely to undergo rapid intensification and become this year's first major hurricane. Which, thankfully, will stay far away from land.

Behind Danielle is another tropical wave being watched that could form over the next few days, this system will likely follow Danielle out to sea.

In short, the tropics are starting to heat up again, but there is nothing approaching any land.

2PM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010

Danielle appears on it's way to becoming a hurricane by tonight or tomorrow, but odds are it will stay out to sea. Danielle is likely to become this year's first major hurricane, but thankfully well away from any land areas.

Behind Danielle is another system, 96L which also has the potential to develop this week, and may do so tomorrow or Wednesday. It has a 40% chance to develop right now, and odds are this too will stay out to sea. It likely won't become as powerful as Danielle, and Danielle may keep it from doing so.

Beyond 96L, another wave may come off Africa and form, and that one could be something to keep a close eye on.


11AM EDT Update - Monday, 23 August 2010
Although still experiencing some easterly shear, Tropical Storm Danielle continues to intensify at a steady rate and is again expected to attain hurricane strength by late tonight or early Tuesday as the shear will be relaxing this evening. After a westward trend during the night, Danielle is now moving to the west northwest and a more northwesterly track is likely tonight as the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge near 45W. After turning to the northwest, NHC believes that a western Atlantic ridge will force Danielle on a track more to the north northwest - which seems like a reasonable scenario, however, since the westward motion last night was not anticipated, folks in the northern Leeward Islands should continue to monitor Danielle's progress for any unexpected changes.
ED

11AM EDT Update - Sunday, 22 August 2010
The organization phase of TD6 has stalled for the moment as the system has encountered strong northeasterly shear that has displaced most of the convection to the southwest of the exposed center. Movement for the past few hours has been almost due north at about 8 knots, however, a more west northwest motion should resume later today as the system moves away from strong tropical east to northeast winds.

Both the intensification outlook and the eventual track of TD6 will require some adjustment because of the disruption and delay of the current system development and the slowdown in forward motion toward the west - both current motion and forecasted movement. A slower and less aggressive intensification process should eventually bring TD6 to hurricane strength on Wednesday. The development of a mid-Atlantic trough is now anticipated to have less influence on the future track - and that track is a little less obvious than it was yesterday.

Other systems that may influence the wind flow patterns in the Atlantic include a rather intense Upper Level Low over the southern Bahamas, another ULL near 26N 43W and a new active and slowly developing tropical wave near 12N 22W at 22/15Z. Just as rapidly as conditions changed from yesterday to today, they can change again from today to tomorrow or the next day, so stay tuned.
ED

Original Post
Tropical Depression six has formed in the Eastern Atlantic, and is forecast to become a hurricane sometime Monday. The good news is that it will stay far away from any land areas.

The system has a good chance to become the first major hurricane of the season, and may generate some minor swells along the east coast, but that will be the extent of the impact.

Outside of this, there likely won't be much else to track until mid-week.