Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions (15)
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93L in the Gulf
Posted: 08:23 AM 13 July 2025 | 8 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 02:01 PM 17-Jul EDT
7:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
The last outlook reduced chances to 0, and 93L has no more chances to develop over land. It will bring an area of :Heavy rain, particularly in Western Louisiana tonight through tomorrow.
12:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L is a hot mess and unlikely to become a TC today, but those odds are also not zero for several reasons, none of which so far look to be materializing. Consequently, the disturbance is coming into Louisiana primarily as flood-threat, which would have been the case either way, but now with less wind as one would expect in a TD or named storm.
Looking ahead, models are increasingly warming up that forecast with 93L remnants looping back around for a second-go in the Gulf and/or even a split scenario with part of the energy in the Gulf and part off the Carolinas. Additionally, the deep tropical Atlantic may be waking up.
Ciel
6:00AM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L's time to develop is nearly up and it looks unlikely to before reaching Louisiana. However, some heavy rainfall in bands and around the core can still cause issues, particularly south and west. Elsewhere heavy rain will be come and go from bands, particularly in the late afternoon and evening. some areas will see much more than others.. Monitor local weather services and officials for more information. Southern Louisiana will see the most rain today, and it will likely more wll shift west closer to Lake Charles and south of Lafayette through tomorrow. Beyond that, the remnants will have to be watched for heavy rains/flooding through parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, and NC as it could loop back into the Atlantic.
12:30PM CDT Update 16 July 2025
The axis of 93L, now a trof, is just now exiting western Florida and entering the northernmost Gulf of America. The environment in this portion of the Gulf is actually suitable for development, with very warm water and light shear, and provided the Area of Interest doesn't track too far north (land, again), or too far south (shear, again), could have a Goldilocks moment.
Ciel
7:00AM EDT Update 16 July 2025
93L continues to be a relatively disorganized elongated north-to-south low with heaviest convection west and south of the area. It's currently straddling the Florida Panhandle coastline. The proximity to the north Gulf coast is likely to keep any development limited today, but has a chance to develop slightly before reaching Louisiana (if it does it would be more likely as it gets much closer to Louisiana).
Most of the rain is going to remain offshore, except in late afternoon and early evening when storms will pop up more along the lines from it with the exception of the areas very close to the elongated center. Also banding east of the system trailing it may affect more of Florida today. Extreme Southeastern Louisiana may also see more rain than normal.
Once over Louisiana the area may linger around in the general area keeping rain chances up for days later for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Panhandle.
7:00AM EDT Update 15 July 2025
93L appears to be close to moving into Florida between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral (close to Oak Hill/Apollo Beach in a remote area along the Canaveral National Seashore) This will likely bring some of the heaviest rainfall just to the south of it, Including Titusville through Melbourne, and the Orlando area, and gradually move across, later in the day the afternoon heating may kick in and enhance the bands as it moves across the state, some of which could be strong. Development into a depression before landfall is unlikely, but it's still fairly close, circulation is still evident on radar and satellite.
The surface low itself is somewhat elongated north to south, concentrated near the Brevard/Volusia county line based on buoy observations with another northeast of there visible on satellite. The mid level is more southwest of that.
Once in the Gulf there remains a chance for it to develop into the Gulf as a depression or Dexter, but depends on the state it leaves Florida in.
2:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
The area off Florida is now being tracked as Invest area 93L.
12:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
Organization of our Area of Interest Invest TBD is underway quite a bit quicker than most models have predicted, and doing so while still east of Florida. Recon has been tasked to head into the system tomorrow, but there may still be a flight later today.
While not typical, it is not at all unheard of for a developing tropical cyclone to cross Florida from east to west, into the Gulf, while strengthening, and those in and around the state may want to begin paying much closer attention as this system is likely to also be a copious rain-producing flood risk, regardless of designation.
Once in the Gulf, conditions there may become sufficiently beneficial for this one to become our first hurricane of the year. Stay tuned.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.
While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.
Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.
We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: 93L Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.
On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.
(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)
This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.
For now it's just something to monitor closely.
The last outlook reduced chances to 0, and 93L has no more chances to develop over land. It will bring an area of :Heavy rain, particularly in Western Louisiana tonight through tomorrow.
12:00PM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L is a hot mess and unlikely to become a TC today, but those odds are also not zero for several reasons, none of which so far look to be materializing. Consequently, the disturbance is coming into Louisiana primarily as flood-threat, which would have been the case either way, but now with less wind as one would expect in a TD or named storm.
Looking ahead, models are increasingly warming up that forecast with 93L remnants looping back around for a second-go in the Gulf and/or even a split scenario with part of the energy in the Gulf and part off the Carolinas. Additionally, the deep tropical Atlantic may be waking up.
Ciel
6:00AM CDT Update 17 July 2025
Invest 93L's time to develop is nearly up and it looks unlikely to before reaching Louisiana. However, some heavy rainfall in bands and around the core can still cause issues, particularly south and west. Elsewhere heavy rain will be come and go from bands, particularly in the late afternoon and evening. some areas will see much more than others.. Monitor local weather services and officials for more information. Southern Louisiana will see the most rain today, and it will likely more wll shift west closer to Lake Charles and south of Lafayette through tomorrow. Beyond that, the remnants will have to be watched for heavy rains/flooding through parts of MS, AL, GA, TN, and NC as it could loop back into the Atlantic.
12:30PM CDT Update 16 July 2025
The axis of 93L, now a trof, is just now exiting western Florida and entering the northernmost Gulf of America. The environment in this portion of the Gulf is actually suitable for development, with very warm water and light shear, and provided the Area of Interest doesn't track too far north (land, again), or too far south (shear, again), could have a Goldilocks moment.
Ciel
7:00AM EDT Update 16 July 2025
93L continues to be a relatively disorganized elongated north-to-south low with heaviest convection west and south of the area. It's currently straddling the Florida Panhandle coastline. The proximity to the north Gulf coast is likely to keep any development limited today, but has a chance to develop slightly before reaching Louisiana (if it does it would be more likely as it gets much closer to Louisiana).
Most of the rain is going to remain offshore, except in late afternoon and early evening when storms will pop up more along the lines from it with the exception of the areas very close to the elongated center. Also banding east of the system trailing it may affect more of Florida today. Extreme Southeastern Louisiana may also see more rain than normal.
Once over Louisiana the area may linger around in the general area keeping rain chances up for days later for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Panhandle.
7:00AM EDT Update 15 July 2025
93L appears to be close to moving into Florida between New Smyrna Beach and Cape Canaveral (close to Oak Hill/Apollo Beach in a remote area along the Canaveral National Seashore) This will likely bring some of the heaviest rainfall just to the south of it, Including Titusville through Melbourne, and the Orlando area, and gradually move across, later in the day the afternoon heating may kick in and enhance the bands as it moves across the state, some of which could be strong. Development into a depression before landfall is unlikely, but it's still fairly close, circulation is still evident on radar and satellite.
The surface low itself is somewhat elongated north to south, concentrated near the Brevard/Volusia county line based on buoy observations with another northeast of there visible on satellite. The mid level is more southwest of that.
Once in the Gulf there remains a chance for it to develop into the Gulf as a depression or Dexter, but depends on the state it leaves Florida in.
2:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
The area off Florida is now being tracked as Invest area 93L.
Invest 93L Event Related Links
Tropical Tidbits Page on system
Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 93
GOES Floater
Tomer Berg Info page for 93
CyclonicWx Page for 93
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93 (Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/current/ More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
12:00PM EDT Update 14 July 2025
Organization of our Area of Interest Invest TBD is underway quite a bit quicker than most models have predicted, and doing so while still east of Florida. Recon has been tasked to head into the system tomorrow, but there may still be a flight later today.
While not typical, it is not at all unheard of for a developing tropical cyclone to cross Florida from east to west, into the Gulf, while strengthening, and those in and around the state may want to begin paying much closer attention as this system is likely to also be a copious rain-producing flood risk, regardless of designation.
Once in the Gulf, conditions there may become sufficiently beneficial for this one to become our first hurricane of the year. Stay tuned.
Ciel
11:30AM EDT Update 13 July 2025
The Area of Interest off the southeast coast has just been tentatively tasked for recon starting Monday. Modeling is increasingly looking favorable on this feature's chances for development and another "homegrown" style system could already be in the making.
While TC numbers during the first two months typically do not foretell how things will play out the rest of a season, they often are from non-tropical entities that acquire sub-tropical to tropical characteristics doing so close to land, which is where most of us live, which means potential impacts.
Occasionally, the broad global atmosphere conspires to make home-grown Atlantic systems considerably more possible than most years. In addition to what is likely to be Invest tagged shortly just off the southeast coast, some attention may also start to be paid to a small, but well-defined area of low pressure located about 250 miles east of the NC/Virginia border that has developed on the trailing end of an east-west oriented front and may be in the process of separating from its parent front.
We now have a Forecast Lounge up on the Area of Interest off the southeast, where we will be delving deeper into its model runs and such: 93L Lounge
Ciel
Original Update
The lemon area (20%) of the coast is being watched for potential weak development mid week. With models mixed on it, mostly weak, with the exception of the icon.
On satellite the area in question is coming from the convection off the southeast coast, which is expected to travel over Florida monday evening and enter the Gulf. Right now it's only a 20% development.
(Satellite photo from 8AM EDT Sunday 13 July 2025)
This means anywhere the convection passes over will see lots of rain into Florida, and it's likely this area will have a shot at development. It's plenty warm in the Gulf, shear may affect it somewhat. It'll be worth watching closely over the next few days to see how this area progresses. It's likely the area of storms off the Southeast will become an invest area either later today or tomorrow.
For now it's just something to monitor closely.
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Ed Dunham
Hurricane Matthew Weather Summary for East Central Florida
Posted: 05:32 PM 16 October 2016
Hurricane Matthew passed just offshore of east-central Florida on the morning of October 7, 2016, as a Category III Major Hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph. The diameter of the eye at 5AM on Friday, October 7th, was 35NM and its location was 28.2N 80.0W or about 36 miles east of Patrick AFB with a movement to the north northwest at 13mph. Matthew moved parallel to the Florida coastline from Fort Pierce to Saint Augustine and then northward thereafter toward the South Carolina coast. Matthew never made landfall in Florida - the closest approach was at 6AM when the western edge of the eyewall brushed Cape Canaveral. Although the Tropical Storm force windfield was large, sustained winds of Hurricane strength only extended 40NM from the center on the western side of the tropical cyclone. Sustained hurricane force winds on land were confined to a small area at South Patrick Shores on the Barrier Island and a small area on the eastern tip of Cape Canaveral. In all other east central Florida coastal locations sustained winds of strong tropical storm force were observed. Storm total rainfall was generally in the 3 to 5 inch range except that some areas in Sanford received up to 9 inches of rain. Storm surge was in the 3 to 5 foot range along the east central Florida coast. During the storm, weather observations were not available from Indialantic, Patrick AFB, Cape Canaveral AFS and Titusville Airport - leaving a critical void in the meteorological record.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
A low pressure reading of 28.97" was recorded at Melbourne NWS at 7AM. At 7:30AM I noted a pressure reading of 28.98" at my home in northwest Melbourne. The lowest pressure was located in the southern section of the eye of the hurricane and the central pressure from the Hurricane Hunters was recorded at 938MB (27.90") at 1AM. At 4AM the aircraft reported a circular eye with a diameter of 32NM and a central pressure of 942MB with flight level wind at 118 knots which translates to a 100 knot surface wind (115mph). At 7:17AM the aircraft sent a position fix for the eye at 28.6N 80.2W with a pressure of 942MB and eyewall sustained surface winds of 110 knots. The eye of Matthew had contracted to a circular 20NM diameter as the hurricane passed to the east of the area. Although the radius of the eye had contracted from 17NM to 10NM, the radius of sustained hurricane force winds remained at 40 miles to the west of the center. The central pressure increased and leveled off at 947MB during the day on Friday as Matthew moved NNW. If the eye of Matthew had moved along the shoreline, i.e., if it had been 35-40 miles further to the west, damage would have certainly been greater but no realistic conclusion can be made with regard to the extent of the destruction because an on-shore system would have slowly weakened.
Matthew goes into the record books as a Category I Hurricane in a small section of the Brevard County coast. In some reports from the NHC the flight level Recon wind speeds were not reduced correctly and resulted in stated maximum eyewall surface wind speeds that were about 10mph too high - and I cannot find a valid meteorological reason for doing this. Hurricane Erin in 1995 and Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne in 2004 were all storms with a greater impact on Brevard County. While the early call by the Brevard Emergency Management Operations Center to evacuate residents from the Barrier Islands was prudent, the overstated intensity and inland impacts were mis-leading and confusing to some of our residents. The National Hurricane Center and The Weather Channel both over-hyped the overall magnitude of the storm - which will not help folks to make the correct decision when the next hurricane visits our area. Matthew was not the catastrophic Category IV storm of the century that was touted by some for our area. All hurricanes are dangerous and deserve proper preparation and decision-making. It is worth noting that the area from Melbourne Beach to Titusville has never recorded a Cat III or greater hurricane. Someday that record of 165 years will probably be broken, but Matthew was not that storm. Hurricane David, September 3-4, 1979, was the last Category II Hurricane to hit this area with eye passage along the coast from West Palm Beach to New Smyrna Beach.
ED
Selected Weather Reports:
Vero Beach - wind W 49G74mph Rainfall 3.16"
Sebastian - wind N 30G59mph
5N Barefoot Bay - wind N G74mph
4NNW Grant - wind NW 51G68mph
Malabar - wind N 60G72mph
Melbourne Beach - wind N 23G63mph Lowest SLP: 28.85"
Melbourne (Dairy Road) - wind N 44G71mph
Melbourne - wind N 44G76mph Lowest SLP: 28.97"
NW Melbourne - wind NNW 42G65 Lowest SLP: 28.98 Storm Total Rainfall: 3.43"
Satellite Beach - wind N 69G87mph
2SSE Patrick AFB - wind N 69G88mph
South Patrick Shores - wind N 73G90mph Lowest SLP: 28.86"
Cocoa Beach Park - wind N 60G77mph
Merritt Island (Sunset Lakes) - wind NW 36G55mph Lowest SLP: 28.90"
Merritt Island (Banana River) - wind NNW 63G81mph
3WNW Cape Canaveral - wind gust N 86mph
4NE Cape Canaveral - wind gust NNW 81mph Coastal Flooding
5NE Port Canaveral - wind gust N 100mph
KSC Tower 22 - wind gust NW 107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
KSC Tower 3 - NNW 77G107mph (non-standard anemometer height)
Titusville (Parrish Park) - wind N 58G75mph
5NNE New Smyrna Beach - wind gust N 80mph
Daytona Beach (Speedway) - wind gust NNW 91mph
5NE Lake Mary - 24 hour rainfall 7.04"
Orlando Intl Airport - wind W 30G61mph Lowest SLP: 29.30"
From the Melbourne NWS:
G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...
---------------------------------------------------------------------
COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS
DESCRIPTION
---------------------------------------------------------------------
BREVARD 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT INJURY. A MALE IN HIS 40S WAS INJURED IN PORT CANAVERAL
WHEN A SIGN FELL AND STRUCK HIM DURING THE STORM. DAMAGE TO
BUSINESSES AND HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN TREES. SEVERAL
HOMES WITH WATER INTRUSION DUE TO DAMAGED ROOFS. TWO HOMES LOST TO
FIRE AS OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE HEIGHT OF
THE STORM. SPORADIC COUNTYWIDE DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND
SCREEN ROOMS. AN INITIAL COASTAL SURVEY INDICATES MODERATE TO MAJOR
BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO BERMS AND DUNES.
PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT INDICATES AN ECONOMIC LOSS OF $25
MILLION DUE TO COASTAL EROSION, AND $4 MILLION DUE TO VEGETATIVE
LOSSES. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT HAS NOT BEEN COMPLETED. ABOUT
300,000 CUSTOMERS WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
INDIAN RIVER 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH EROSION.
PRELIMINARY BEACH DAMAGE ASSESSMENT DETAILS MAJOR DUNE EROSION AND
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALKS WITHIN COUNTY OWNED
BEACH PARKS WITH AN ESTIMATED ECONOMIC LOSS OF $13 MILLION. SEVERAL
HOMES DAMAGED MAINLY BY FALLEN TREES.
LAKE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...AND LOWLAND FLOODING.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER NEAR ASTOR PEAKED JUST BELOW MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. MINOR DAMAGE TO FOUR HOMES WITH MAJOR DAMAGE TO THREE CAUSED
MAINLY BY FALLING BRANCHES AND TREES. EARLY PROPERTY DAMAGE
ASSESSMENT OF APPROXIMATELY $389 THOUSAND.
MARTIN 0 1 UNKNOWN
ONE INDIRECT INJURY. A 47-YEAR-OLD MALE WAS ELECTROCUTED WHEN HIS
TOOLS HIT A LIVE POWER LINE WHILE TRIMMING TREES IN STUART AFTER
THE STORM ON MONDAY OCTOBER 10 AROUND 8:15 AM. ROUGH SURF AND MINOR
BEACH EROSION. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES MAINLY AS A RESULT OF FALLEN
TREES. ISOLATED DAMAGE TO FENCES...AWNINGS...AND SCREEN ROOMS.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE.
OKEECHOBEE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO ONE HOME. UP TO 2300
CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT HEIGHT OF STORM.
ORANGE 1 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DEATH INDIRECTLY RELATED TO HURRICANE MATTHEW. A 70-YEAR-OLD
WOMAN DIED AFTER HER MEDICAL DEVICE FAILED DURING A POWER OUTAGE.
PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT NOT YET AVAILABLE FROM OFFICIALS.
OSCEOLA 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. NO REPORTS OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR FLOODING.
MINOR DAMAGE MAINLY TO TREES AND VEGETATION. UP TO 5900 CUSTOMERS
WERE WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
SEMINOLE 0 0 UNKNOWN
NO DEATHS OR INJURIES. MINOR URBAN...ROADWAY...LOWLAND AND RIVER
FLOODING. DAMAGE TO BUSINESSES AND RESIDENCES MAINLY BY FALLING
BRANCHES AND TREES. INITIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATED $15 MILLION.
UP TO 70,000 CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM.
ST. LUCIE 2 2 UNKNOWN
TWO INDIRECT DEATHS AND TWO INDIRECT INJURIES. A 58-YEAR-OLD INDIAN
RIVER ESTATES WOMAN DIED OF A HEART ATTACK AND A PORT ST. LUCIE MAN
IN HIS 80S DIED AFTER SUFFERING BREATHING PROBLEMS AND SYMPTOMS OF A
STROKE AS FIRE OFFICIALS SUSPENDED EMERGENCY SERVICES DURING THE
HURRICANE. A 90-YEAR-OLD MALE AND FEMALE WERE FOUND UNCONSCIOUS IN
THEIR PORT ST. LUCIE HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED THEY WERE
RUNNING A GAS GENERATOR IN THEIR GARAGE. ROUGH SURF AND MODERATE TO
MAJOR BEACH EROSION. DAMAGE CONFINED MAINLY TO TREES...POWER
LINES...AND SIGNAGE THROUGH THE COUNTY. PROPERTY DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
NOT YET AVAIALBLE FROM OFFICIALS.
VOLUSIA 4 0 UNKNOWN
ONE DIRECT AND THREE INDIRECT FATALITIES. A 63-YEAR-OLD WOMAN DIED
WHEN A TREE FELL ON HER AS SHE WAS OUT FEEDING ANIMALS AT HER DELAND
HOME. A 89-YEAR-OLD MAN FROM DELEON SPRINGS WAS ELECTROCUTED BY A
DOWNED POWER LINE MONDAY MORNING AROUND 8:00 AM OCTOBER 10. A 47-
YEAR-OLD NORTHEAST OHIO MAN ASSISTING CLEANUP EFFORTS IN ORMOND
BEACH WAS KILLED WHEN PART OF A DOWNED TREE ROLLED ON TOP OF HIM AND
PINNED HIM UNDERNEATH. A 9-YEAR-OLD DAYTONA BEACH BOY WAS FOUND
UNCONSCIOUS IN HIS HOME AFTER OFFICIALS DISCOVERED A GENERATOR
RUNNING IN ANOTHER ROOM. THE BOY LATER DIED AT HALIFAX HEATLH
MEDICAL CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO HOMES AND BUSINESS THROUGHOUT
THE COUNTY WITH OVER 6400 PROPERTIES AFFECTED, 1100 WITH MINOR
DAMAGE, 300 WITH MAJOR DAMAGE, AND 40 STRUCTURES DESTROYED. INITIAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE ESTIMATE OF $490 MILLION. ROUGH SURF AND MAJOR BEACH
EROSION. BEACH EROSION DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME.
General Links
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
Inside the Eye - Official National Hurricane Center Blog
RAMMB Interactive Satellite Imagery Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC)
NRL-Monterey (Nice Tracking Maps and Satellite)
Zoom Earth (Storm Tracks + Satellite Animation)
USNO Information on Current Storms (including Google Earth KMZ Files)
Best Track FTP, official source of invest data
Interactive Wundermap
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation - SST Forecast.
Google Deepmind models (New for 2025) -Atlantic Animation of Google Model
CIMSS Tropical Weather
Buoy
NASA MSFC North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images, RAMSDIS Satellite Images (rapid-scan imagery)
Full Western Hemisphere Sat Animation
Buoy Data, Dvorak Estimates
Caribbean Weather Observations
Some forecast models:
Tropical Tidbits Models
Pivotal Weather Models
WeatherNerds Ensembles
Tomer Burg's mult-model ensemble plots
Multiple model output from Ryan Maue (HWRF, GFDL, GFS, etc)
Weathermodels.com
San Jose State Models and More
Animated Earth Wind view of Tropical Atlantic
GFS, ECMWF (ECMWF) and ECMWF
FSU: CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, HWRF; Phase Analysis
GFS, RUC, ETA
FIM Model
Other commentary from Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan), Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), Hurricane City (Jim Williams), TropicalAtlantic, storm2k, Mike's WX Page, Greg Nordstrom, Gulf Coast Weather, American Weather - , Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update
NOAA Weather Radio
Even more on the links page.
