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#Harvey and #92L both struggling against higher shear and drier air, but environment may improve for them next week #flhurricane.com
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Systems Tracking West - Harvey, 92L and More

Posted: 07:49 PM 13 August 2017 | 1 Comment | Add Comment | Newest: 05:33 PM 17-Aug EDT

7:30PM EDT Update 19 Aug 2017

Recon is presently investigating "Harvey" to determine if the area of low pressure is still closed in some way. Assuming that recon is able to close off a low level circulation, the Low could take advantage of some potentially favorable conditions ahead - perhaps as soon as overnight tonight, and so the official NHC forecast does call for restrengthening. Alternatively, if a coherent LLC is not found, "Harvey" would be an open wave, and not a tropical cyclone.


Image above: NHC Marine Graphicast Issued Sat 19 Aug 2017 22:51 UTC

12:30PM EDT Update 19 Aug 2017
As quickly as the Cabo Verde Season announced its arrival, so too did one of 2017's main themes of anomalously low instability, and in the face of a couple stout upper-level lows and some nearby dry air, it appears that, at least for the time being, Harvey and Invest 92L may be falling apart. We could even see at 5:00 this afternoon that NHC no longer finds enough organization to continue issuing advisories on Harvey altogether, but both features (Harvey, or his remnants, and Invest 92L) would still need to be watched, as conditions for development could improve next week.

8:30PM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Cabo Verde Season has Arrived



10:30AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Full Advisories will begin shortly on PTC NINE (91L). Caribbean impacts likely. Recon may find that it is already Harvey later today.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

10AM EDT Update 17 Aug 2017
Three coherent disturbances continue tracking generally west today (91L, 92L, 93L?), and advisories may begin soon on what is now "91L" - the westernmost of the bunch. Recon has been tasked to head out to 91L at 1800Z to help determine if a tropical cyclone has formed and to assess its intensity.

At least two of the above thee disturbances have the potential to affect land within 72 hours (91L and 92L). The next name on the Atlantic list is Harvey.

Original Entry
Disturbances Entering a Favorable Basin




The Atlantic is phasing into a much more conducive state for tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. This is neither hype, nor speculation, and the regions probably most favorable for formation and/or intensification will include the Main Development Region (a rectangular 'box' that encompass the Tropical Atlantic and some of the Caribbean), as well as also off the southeast coast, and possibly even the Gulf. Pick your poison.

As of this new article, there is one named storm in the Atlantic, Gert, which is forecast to come just shy of hurricane intensity and head out to sea regardless, one active Invest (91L), and one convectively active portion of the Monsoon Trof that is not yet Invest tagged, but which could be, if 91L doesn't absorb it. Beyond that, there is also a bit of a wave train pattern over Africa that is ripe for discussion in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge .


TD8 (GERT) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of GERT


stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of GERT (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of GERT (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of GERT

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for GERT
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on GERT -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Harvey Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Harvey


stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Harvey (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Harvey

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Harvey
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Harvey -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


92L (Central Atlantic Tropical Low) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 92L


stormplotthumb_10.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 92L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 92L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 92L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 92L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 92L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
10:45 pm 19-Aug-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Tropical Depression #HARVEY to Remnants Of HARVEY 14.3N 71.8W Wind 35MPH Moving W at 22 MPH

Facebook Update Posted
04:35 pm 19-Aug-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Tropical Storm #HARVEY to Tropical Depression HARVEY 14.1N 70.0W Wind 35MPH Moving W at 22 MPH https://t.co/A1iFikYB5D

Facebook Update Posted
12:29 pm 19-Aug-2017 EDT

Good afternoon! The NHC has reduced the chances of 92L becoming a tropical cyclone as the upper air is not conducive for development at this time. The cover photo is the new GOES16R which is not operational just yet. This particular photo is the Differential Water Vapor; the varying degrees of orange are areas of subsidence and dry air. If you look across the United States you will see a dip where this orange shows up nicely from NE TX to N LA extending east and north east across the Deep South. Dew points over NE GA and TN and NC are in the mid 60s today which for we Southerners is a delight. A dissipating cold front is depicted across central GA and points to the east. The airmass west of GA depicts dew points in the mid to upper 70s. At 500 millibar the eastern US longwave trough continues to be in place and has amplified as a shortwaves passes through it. Upper level "Bermuda" ridge resides east of this trough centered south of Bermuda. 92L is associated with an upper level low directly over it. Returning to our cover photo you will see subsidence out in front of it. My colleague Ciel made mention of this earlier.

Tropical Storm Harvey may very well be a tropical depression at the moment and barely a closed circulation. Subsidence (sinking air), dry air, and moderate shear are making life difficult for Harvey. It's expected to say well south and continue to move west-northwest for the foreseeable future.

Note: I am a full-time college student at the age of 57 and I'm majoring in Earth and Space Science at Columbus State University in Columbus, GA. I have Chemistry and Calculus with Analytical Geometry along with Atmospheric Science and US History Post 1865...14 hours! I will still be here but not with the frequency I have done so in the past. If a significant system affects the United States; you bet. And with that said, everybody have a fantastic weekend. Take care! Bill Berry

Facebook Update Posted
10:23 am 19-Aug-2017 EDT

#Harvey and #92L both struggling against higher shear and drier air, but environment may improve for them next week #flhurricane.com

Facebook Update Posted
10:10 am 19-Aug-2017 EDT

Good morning, this is Ciel from the site. The Invest with the highest potential to affect the US is struggling mightily in the face of dry to very dry air being injected into the disturbance by moderate to strong westerly to northerly shear (see image below). High shear is tough enough on its own. Exponentially harsh on a tropical system to combine high shear with dry air. The pair of upper lows responsible for this are forecast to travel west with 92L, and unless they weaken and/or pull away soon, it is becoming less and less likely that 92L will have a chance to get a name before it moves over or near the Bahamas during the first half of next week. NHC development odds now 40% (Down from 70%).

Facebook Update Posted
11:48 am 18-Aug-2017 EDT

#92L in 'that zone' where #Florida old-timers start paying close attention
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=97852&an=0&page=0&gonew=1#UNREAD

14.3N 71.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 22 mph
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