3:00AM EDT 19 July, 2026 Update

Tonight, Invest 91L now has somewhat of a surface circulation and also pressures at the surface are falling. However, the system lacks sufficient and organized deep convection as it is battling dry air and shear from an upper-level low impinging from the north. Nonetheless, it has more than a few avenues for tropical cyclone genesis to occur over the next 6-72 hours, and is more likely than not to develop. The next name on the list in 2026 is Bertha.

As far as track is concerned, earlier and stronger development could favor continued jogs ~ if not an outright persistent course ~ to the west. This could ultimately put Texas and/or northeastern Mexico on play. A somewhat delayed and/or weaker development would probably tend to favor a track heading as far east as Florida's Big Bend to as far west as the upper Texas gulf coast.

Recon will help and is scheduled to start heading in later today.
Ciel

12:45PM EDT 18 July, 2026 Update
The Area of Interest we have been tracking in the Gulf has been Invest tagged, and is now being monitored as Invest 91L. Recon has been tasked to begin flying in on Sunday. There are some indications that the environment for development may now be going up, perhaps even quite a bit overnight tonight, and so they may encounter a closed surface low when they get in there tomorrow.

Modeling has been a little vague, but with a more coherent system coming together and especially with recon scheduled to go in, should start being more reliable soon. Interests all along and in the Gulf may want to follow along with us on this one. Lots more modeling data, analysis and speculation can be found in the Lounge.
-Ciel

Original Update
We are now closely monitoring two systems that while still officially listed as having "slight" chances for development, are already producing heavy weather.

The first, and closest to home, is an area of closed low pressure aloft that is building down towards the surface, not yet Invest-tagged,
but we already have a Forecast Lounge up on this one:



Eastern Gulf Low Forecast Lounge (INVEST 91L)

The second is a stout tropical wave now located south of the Cabo Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic, but encountering cooler waters and stable air.