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A quiet week ahead in the Atlantic tropics.
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 263 (Matthew) , Major: 4265 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 300 (Hermine) Major: 4265 (11 y 8 m) (Wilma)
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Tropical Storm Cindy Forms in Gulf of Mexico

Posted: 01:34 PM 20 June 2017 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:54 PM 23-Jun EDT

7 AM Update EDT 22 June 2017
Cindy makes landfall near the Texas and Louisiana border, now moving inland.

Cindy started to develop convection along the northwestern side and it managed to wrap around just as it was making landfall. Shear had let up, but dry air intrusion from the south kept it weak. Rainfall was the biggest story along with numerous small tornadoes and waterspouts.

Rain will continue well inland, however the dry air intrusion made some fairly large pockets where places did not see as much rain, but others such as Alabama and the Panhandle wound up with much more time under rain than areas closer to the center, with the exception of right around the center once it neared land.

The most tragic accident related to Cindy was a 10 year old Missouri boy who died when a log picked up by the heavy surf ran into him in the water and hit him in Fort Morgan, AL while there for a family reunion.

Original Update
The area being tracked as 93L and Potential Cyclone Three is now, based on recon reports, Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy is mostly a flooding rainfall event for areas east of the storm center (As far east as the Florida Panhandle), but may also include coastal rainfall and short-lived tornadoes.

Cindy's Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for High Island (Just north of Houston/Galveston) to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... West of High Island to San Luis Pass along the mid-Texas coastline.

Tropical Storm Bret continues to move through the southern Caribbean,

For Bret, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Venezuela Isla de Margarita and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the islands of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba.

more to come soon...

Event Links

Biloxi Lightgouse camera Live Stream:

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<a href="http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?252" target="_blank">Flhurricane Recording of Biloxi Lighthouse Cam</a>

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack Video Stream for the system, he's heading toward the Gulf coast
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See mark's position on a map <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJEMML0QJF0" target="_blank">here</a>.

Cindy Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cindy


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cindy

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cindy
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cindy -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Bret) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bret


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bret (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bret (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bret

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bret
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bret -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
06:10 pm 28-Jun-2017 EDT

It's hard to ignore that area of disturbed weather off the coast of TX but the gurus at NHC seem not to have an interest in this despite winds over the part of it being quite light. that said, the winds along the coast are not favorable at this time.

Facebook Update Posted
12:15 pm 25-Jun-2017 EDT

A quiet week ahead in the Atlantic tropics.

Facebook Update Posted
06:52 pm 23-Jun-2017 EDT

#CINDY Loses Tropical Cyclone status. However, flooding rain and isolated tornado potential continues, pushing east

Facebook Update Posted
07:19 pm 22-Jun-2017 EDT

#Cindy now a very large inland Tropical Depression with ongoing flood and isolated tornado risks

Facebook Update Posted
06:37 pm 22-Jun-2017 EDT

Good evening - This is a product I normally don't post here but it's relevant since a Tornado Watch is out for parts of the South Central and SE USA -

WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0369
(Issued at 601 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 )

MPD Selection
Latest Previous Next MPD Summary Page


Graphic for MPD #0369
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0369
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
601 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN & CENTRAL GA...EXT EASTERN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222200Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALIZED TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS
THAT MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH N CENTRAL AL PROVIDING MODEST
DPVA ASCENT ALONG THE ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSE. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY DEEP WELL OF MLCPAES OF 2500 J/KG ALONG THE
UPPER CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL GA
(PLEASE NOTE VERY POOR 60 TD AT EMZ IS LEADING TO INCORRECT
ASSESSMENT OF INSTABILITY/MST FLUX IN AT VICINITY). THE NATURE OF
WARM CONVEYOR HAS BEEN FOR NARROW TRANSVERSE BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
THAT SPROUT CONVECTION WITH NARROW UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CORES
LIMITING THE OVERALL COVERAGE. STILL GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILE...CELLS ARE ALSO ABLE HAVE GREATER
VERTICAL DEPTH (NOT LOST TO SHEARING OF THE UPDRAFT) AND THEREFORE
DEEPER RAINFALL GENERATION TAPPING GREATER MOISTURE DEPTH
SUPPORTING RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON
THE NARROW BANDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTAL
STREAKS AND NEAR LOCAL FFG VALUE IN THE VICINITY WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FF POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE MS COAST TO ONGOING
CONVECTION IN E CENTRAL AL IS MAIN SOURCE/CHANNEL FOR MOISTURE
FLUX...GOES-16 VIS CONUS LOOP SHOWS SECONDARY STREAM FROM SLY
CHANNEL FROM EASTERN APALACHEE BAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MST CONVERGENCE TO AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THESE CELLS ALSO HAVE
A MORE NORTHERLY CELL MOTION COMPARED TO CELLS IN THE WARM
CONVEYOR (MORE NE). AS SUCH THERE IS GOOD PROBABILITY FOR CELL
MERGERS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND N GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FURTHER
INCREASING FLASH FLOODING CHANCES.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 34968418 34758385 33588355 32538388 32298435
32448485 33028534 34138569 34958523

Facebook Update Posted
10:44 am 22-Jun-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Tropical Storm #CINDY to Tropical Depression CINDY 31.0N 93.5W Wind 35MPH Moving N at 13 MPH https://t.co/A1iFilgcud

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