|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1182552 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 PM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 305 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...High Risk Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches... ...Heat Indices Getting Back To 100s Middle/End Of Next Week... ...Isolated To Scattered Storms For Next Week... ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today will be a transition day in South Florida as breezy east-northeast winds increase with strong high pressure building across the Eastern seaboard behind a departing mid-level trough. This will result in a generally cooler and drier day across the area, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest regions into this evening. While storm activity will be suppressed, there could still be a few strong to severe storms with decent mid-level lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft. Any storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and localized flooding. On Saturday, a shallow backdoor cold front will push across the area from over the Atlantic, reinforcing breezy easterly flow over South Florida. There could be a few showers along the east coast metro forming along convergence boundaries, but in general most convective activity will again be over the interior and southwest areas. The most notable impacts from the breezy easterly flow will be the cooler temperatures, especially across eastern areas. Highs today will range from around 90 along the east coast, to mid to upper 90s along the gulf coast. Saturday`s highs will be a few degrees cooler, with mid to upper 80s along the east coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior and gulf coast. Heat index values will not be much different than the high temperature with dewpoints at or below 70. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .Rest of This Weekend into Early Next Week... The long range models are showing that the back door cold front will have dissipated over the Florida Straits late this weekend, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the Western Atlantic waters. This will keep a northeast to east wind flow over South Florida allowing for the east coast sea breeze to push inland each day with the west coast sea breeze remaining over the west coast metro areas. This will allow for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the east coast sea breeze in the morning hours before shifting and increasing in coverage over interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours. Highs each day will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s over most areas, except mid to upper 80s over the east coast metro areas. The only exception to this is over the far western east coast metro areas where it could get up to around 90 degrees. Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s over most areas each day except lower to mid 90s east coast metro areas and around 100 over metro Collier County. Lows will be mainly in the lower to mid 70s over most areas each night, except for the east coast metro areas where they will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. .Middle To End Of Next Week... The ridge will break down late next week over the Western Atlantic waters allowing for a trough of low pressure to build into the Eastern United States from the west. This will allow for the steering flow to become more south to southwest direction over South Florida. At the same time, some deeper moisture could start to work into South Florida from the Caribbean Sea. This will allow for a possible increase in POPs over South Florida late next week with the highest coverage over the east coast metro areas where the sea breezes collide. Highs will also be on an increase middle to end of next week with highs getting up into the mid to upper 90s over most areas, except around 90 over the west coast metro areas. Heat indices will also be increasing and should be in the lower to mid 100s over most areas, except around 100 over the west coast metro areas. Lows will also remain in the 70s over most areas, except around 80 east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. Easterly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts continue into the evening with less gusts overnight. Winds pick up again by the afternoon on Saturday. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF later this afternoon, with VCSH/VCTS through the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 East-northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts will develop this evening and overnight, creating hazardous boating conditions over the Atlantic waters, which will linger through most of the weekend. Seas will build up to 6-7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and 2-3 feet over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic waters from this evening through Sunday morning. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Developing east to northeast onshore flow has lead to a High Risk of Rip Currents for the east coast beaches of South Florida for rest of this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 87 78 87 / 10 50 40 40 West Kendall 75 88 75 89 / 10 40 40 40 Opa-Locka 77 88 78 87 / 10 50 40 40 Homestead 78 87 77 87 / 10 40 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 10 50 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 86 78 86 / 10 50 40 40 Pembroke Pines 78 89 78 89 / 10 50 40 40 West Palm Beach 76 86 76 86 / 10 40 40 40 Boca Raton 77 87 77 87 / 10 50 40 40 Naples 74 95 74 93 / 20 40 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182543 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 203 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today will be a transition day in South Florida as breezy east-northeast winds increase with strong high pressure building across the Eastern seaboard behind a departing mid-level trough. This will result in a generally cooler and drier day across the area, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms over the interior and southwest regions into this evening. While storm activity will be suppressed, there could still be a few strong to severe storms with decent mid-level lapse rates and cooler temperatures aloft. Any storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, hail, and localized flooding. On Saturday, a shallow backdoor cold front will push across the area from over the Atlantic, reinforcing breezy easterly flow over South Florida. There could be a few showers along the east coast metro forming along convergence boundaries, but in general most convective activity will again be over the interior and southwest areas. The most notable impacts from the breezy easterly flow will be the cooler temperatures, especially across eastern areas. Highs today will range from around 90 along the east coast, to mid to upper 90s along the gulf coast. Saturday`s highs will be a few degrees cooler, with mid to upper 80s along the east coast, and low to mid 90s over the interior and gulf coast. Heat index values will not be much different than the high temperature with dewpoints at or below 70. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior. Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region. Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior. A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Generally VFR conditions through the 18Z TAF period. Easterly winds of 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts continue into the evening with less gusts overnight. Winds pick up again by the afternoon on Saturday. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF later this afternoon, with VCSH/VCTS through the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 East-northeast winds of 15 to 25 kts will develop this evening and overnight, creating hazardous boating conditions over the Atlantic waters, which will linger through most of the weekend. Seas will build up to 6-7 feet over the Atlantic waters, and 2-3 feet over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Atlantic waters from this evening through Sunday morning. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Developing east to northeast onshore flow will lead to a moderate rip current risk today along the Atlantic beaches. Later on this evening winds will strengthen and lead to a high rip current risk, which will continue throughout the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1220 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 87 77 86 / 10 50 40 40 West Kendall 75 88 74 87 / 10 40 40 40 Opa-Locka 77 88 76 87 / 10 50 40 40 Homestead 78 87 76 87 / 10 40 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 78 86 77 85 / 10 50 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 78 86 77 86 / 10 50 40 40 Pembroke Pines 78 89 77 89 / 10 50 40 40 West Palm Beach 76 86 75 86 / 10 40 40 40 Boca Raton 77 87 76 86 / 10 50 40 40 Naples 74 95 74 92 / 20 40 30 40 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182513 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:48 AM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 737 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today, a weakening upper flow and the eastward departure of the upper-level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters will be observed. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur further westward, primarily in the southwestern coastal and interior regions. While storm activity will be suppressed compared to earlier in the week, it will still bring potential impacts, including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures for the remainder of the week will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures expected in the western parts of the region. The eastern metro area will remain below heat advisory criteria, with apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior. Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region. Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior. A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 736 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF period. Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Boating conditions will remain generally benign through the end of the week. By the weekend however, wave heights are expected to increase over the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching 5 to 6 feet due to the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds will also increase from the east-northeast, reaching up to 20 knots. This will likely prompt a Small Craft Advisory beginning as early as this evening. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas periodically. && .BEACHES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Kendall 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 40 40 Opa-Locka 91 77 88 76 / 10 10 40 40 Homestead 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 86 77 / 10 10 40 40 Pembroke Pines 93 78 90 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 75 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 90 77 87 76 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 96 74 95 74 / 40 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182503 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 633 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today, a weakening upper flow and the eastward departure of the upper-level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters will be observed. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur further westward, primarily in the southwestern coastal and interior regions. While storm activity will be suppressed compared to earlier in the week, it will still bring potential impacts, including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures for the remainder of the week will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures expected in the western parts of the region. The eastern metro area will remain below heat advisory criteria, with apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior. Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region. Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior. A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Boating conditions will remain generally benign through the end of the week. By the weekend however, wave heights are expected to increase over the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching 5 to 6 feet due to the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds will also increase from the east-northeast, reaching up to 20 knots. This will likely prompt a Small Craft Advisory beginning as early as this evening. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas periodically. && .BEACHES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 608 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure building north of the area will keep east to northeast winds in place over the weekend, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph during each afternoon. Minimum RH values will drop to around 35% across interior and southwest areas, while staying above 50% along the coast. Despite the drier airmass, there will still be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day, primarily focused over the interior and southwest areas, initiating along sea breeze boundaries. Afternoon dispersion values will range from very good to locally excellent. The combination of high dispersion and dry fuels over the interior and southwest areas will lead to sensitive fire conditions that will have to be monitored. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Kendall 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 40 40 Opa-Locka 91 77 88 76 / 10 10 40 40 Homestead 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 86 77 / 10 10 40 40 Pembroke Pines 93 78 90 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 75 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 90 77 87 76 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 96 74 95 74 / 40 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182478 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 220 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Today, a weakening upper flow and the eastward departure of the upper-level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters will be observed. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur further westward, primarily in the southwestern coastal and interior regions. While storm activity will be suppressed compared to earlier in the week, it will still bring potential impacts, including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. Afternoon high temperatures for the remainder of the week will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures expected in the western parts of the region. The eastern metro area will remain below heat advisory criteria, with apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Pleasant weather and a less oppressive temperature regime will continue across South Florida through the weekend, thanks to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain east-northeasterly winds, resulting in a milder breeze from the Atlantic waters across the eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving, low-topped showers along the east coast at times, with most convection occurring over the interior and southwestern parts of the region. A generally quiet synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, though a few strong pulse storms may develop in highly unstable areas of the interior. Early to mid-next week, winds will gradually shift from the east, leading to a slight increase in temperatures across the region. Morning showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected along the east coast, gradually drifting westward towards the interior. A much-needed reprieve from oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, resulting in lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming trend will take place towards the early to middle portions of next week, with high temperatures climbing back into the low/mid 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Boating conditions will remain generally benign through the end of the week. By the weekend however, wave heights are expected to increase over the Atlantic waters, potentially reaching 5 to 6 feet due to the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds will also increase from the east-northeast, reaching up to 20 knots. This will likely prompt a Small Craft Advisory beginning as early as this evening. Additionally, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, which could result in locally elevated winds and seas periodically. && .BEACHES... Issued at 216 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Kendall 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 40 40 Opa-Locka 91 77 88 76 / 10 10 40 40 Homestead 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 40 40 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 86 77 / 10 10 40 40 Pembroke Pines 93 78 90 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 75 / 10 10 30 30 Boca Raton 90 77 87 76 / 10 10 40 40 Naples 96 74 95 74 / 40 20 30 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182469 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 31.May.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 103 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Some minor tweaks to the hourly temperature and dewpoint forecast as this afternoon and evening`s convection has cooled things down a bit. Previous forecast captured the convective trends fairly well with the trend for convection to move to the west and eventually diminish as the sea breezes retreat back to the waters. No additional major updates are anticipated through the evening. Have a wonderful Thursday night! && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 A subtle upper troughing pattern will remains present across southeastern CONUS, including South Florida. The east-northeasterly winds continue to prevail across the region. As a result, the convergence of low-level moisture, due to ENE winds and the Gulf sea breeze, will lead to the majority of convective activity occurring over the interior and southwest Florida. While the 12Z morning sounding did not have favorable lapse rates (<6.0 J/kg), models indicate steepening lapse rates this afternoon, as well as CAPE values (1500 J/kg+). Therefore, we cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms, particularly from the early afternoon through late evening hours. Tomorrow, there will be a weakening of the upper flow and the eastward exit of the upper level shortwave into the western Atlantic waters. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur further westward in the SW coastal and interior regions. Despite weaker activity than previously this week, the storms will still bringing potential impacts including strong wind gusts, frequent lightning, and localized flooding. For the remainder of the week, the afternoon high temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s, with the highest temperatures expected across the western portions of the region. The eastern metro will remain above heat advisory criteria, with apparent temperatures not expected to rise above 100-102 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 A welcomed change in the weather pattern is to be expected across much of South Florida this upcoming weekend, owing to a backdoor cold front across the western Atlantic waters. This will maintain the prevalence of east-northeasterly winds, which will result in a milder breeze coming in from the Atlantic waters across eastern portions of our CWFA. Expect a few quick-moving low-topped showers across the east coast at times, with the bulk of convection spawning yet again over the interior and southwestern portions of the region. A generally quiescent synoptic regime should limit thunderstorm intensity, however cannot rule out a few strong pulse storms that take advantage of high instability across the interior region. Towards the beginning to middle of next week, winds will gradually veer out of the east, resulting in a slight uptick in temperatures across the region. Expect a few showers and possibly thunderstorms in the morning hours across the east coast, with a gradual westward drift towards the interior again. A much needed reprieve from the oppressive temperatures can be expected through the weekend and into early next week across much of South Florida. Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s can be expected along the east coast. Dewpoints will drop to a more manageable 65-68 degrees, allowing for lower apparent temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. A gradual warming will take place towards early to middle portions of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Light easterly winds this morning will pick up to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts starting this afternoon. A brief Gulf breeze is expected at APF this afternoon. VCTS only entered at APF today as SW FL is expected to see the highest chances of convection. && .MARINE... Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Generally benign boating conditions will continue through the end of the week. By the weekend, wave heights will increase over the Atlantic waters with potential for waves as high as 5 to 6 feet in the presence of a backdoor cold front. Winds may increase out of the east-northeast, up to around 20 kt, this weekend as well. This may prompt a Small Craft Advisory, which will be determined as the time approaches. Aside from this, there is potential for daily showers and thunderstorms, thus resulting in locally elevated winds and seas periodically. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1127 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 Enhanced easterly flow, in the presence of a departing front, will increase the risk for rip currents this weekend across the Atlantic beaches. As a result, a high risk for rip current could develop across the Atlantic beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 79 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 West Kendall 91 75 89 75 / 10 10 40 40 Opa-Locka 91 77 88 77 / 10 10 40 30 Homestead 90 78 88 77 / 10 10 40 40 Fort Lauderdale 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 40 30 N Ft Lauderdale 89 78 86 77 / 10 10 40 30 Pembroke Pines 93 78 90 77 / 10 10 40 30 West Palm Beach 90 77 87 75 / 10 10 30 20 Boca Raton 90 77 87 76 / 10 10 40 30 Naples 96 74 95 75 / 40 20 30 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
