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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1184062 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 PM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms continue near to north of Orlando, while areas farther south are only seeing isolated development at this time. Some of the CAM guidance does indicate a surge in convection or at least stratiform rainfall across southern areas through sunset, but with cloud cover limiting instability and lack of additional boundaries, it is difficult to say how much additional development there will be. CAM guidance does at least agree in decreasing shower and storm coverage into this evening, but still keeping some rain chances around 20-40 percent overnight. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches with some isolated spots of 4" or higher are still possible, especially in any persistent or repeated rounds of showers and storms through this evening. This could produce minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Additional storm threats will include lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph. With the moist airmass in place, mild and humid conditions will continue overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. NHC currently has a low chance of tropical development with this system (around 20 percent) over the next 7 days, but regardless of any development, high rain chances and potential for locally heavy rainfall will still be the main concern across our area through mid to late week. There are some differences in how far south a front will make it across the northern FL peninsula and potential for some decreasing PW values/lowering of rain chances across this area. However, for now have higher rain chances around 70-80 percent continuing each day through late week, with the potential for some showers and storms continuing during the overnight hours, but lower in coverage. Rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible each day. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard will lift northeast, with a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). There remains some uncertainty in how much moisture will persist across the area as we head later into the weekend and into early next week, but moisture looks to remain high enough to keep likely PoPs (60-70 percent) into the weekend, falling to 50 percent on Monday. Highs largely continue in the mid to upper 80s, with some low 90s forecast near to NW of I-4 each afternoon. Lows remain in the low to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 417 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Tonight...Boating conditions will be poor to hazardous across the coastal waters. Went with a short fused Small Craft Advisory for the offshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast for the remainder of the afternoon through much of tonight. S/SW winds at buoy 41009 have been reaching around 20 knots already and some guidance indicates that speeds around 20 to 25 knot will continue into tonight. Over the nearshore waters of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast, as well as offshore of Volusia County, small craft should exercise caution for wind speeds up to 15-20 knots. Across the nearshore waters of Volusia County wind speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to build up to 3-5 feet, with occasional seas up to 6 feet offshore. Wednesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 10-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, they should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Ongoing convection is forecast to increase in coverage into the afternoon. Prevailing MVFR CIGs are forecast generally around 2,000- 2,500 ft today, falling further at times overnight. Convection is expected to diminish across the north around 0Z with mention of VCSH potentially lingering through late evening. Potential for -RA beyond 0Z at the Treasure Coast terminals. Winds generally out of the south to southwest around 12 kts today. Winds may become gusty and variable in vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 74 88 / 50 70 50 70 MCO 75 85 74 86 / 60 80 60 80 MLB 73 87 74 86 / 70 80 70 80 VRB 73 87 73 87 / 80 80 70 80 LEE 75 88 76 89 / 50 80 50 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 50 80 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 60 80 60 80 FPR 73 87 72 87 / 80 90 70 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1184046 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 PM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 216 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 213 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Ongoing convection is forecast to increase in coverage into the afternoon. Prevailing MVFR CIGs are forecast generally around 2,000- 2,500 ft today, falling further at times overnight. Convection is expected to diminish across the north around 0Z with mention of VCSH potentially lingering through late evening. Potential for -RA beyond 0Z at the Treasure Coast terminals. Winds generally out of the south to southwest around 12 kts today. Winds may become gusty and variable in vicinity of thunderstorms. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s. No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding. Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there`s still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low. GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions become MVFR generally after 15z with increasing SHRA/TSRA at the sites thru 21z. Hi-res guidance suggests rain chances decreasing north to south 00z and beyond with VCSH left behind. IFR CIG/VIS are possible among heavier SHRA/TSRA. Winds 10-12 kt may gust up to 20 kt outside of convection, gradually veering S after 21z. Continued lower confidence in SHRA after 03z, though the highest chances remain MLB south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased wind speeds, especially for the nearshore waters, as low level southerly flow will be on the rise through this afternoon, and should lead to sustained winds of 15-20 knots over much of the waters. Small craft exercise caution headlines are now in place for this afternoon across all waters, except nearshore Volusia. These southerly winds will remain elevated into tonight, and will have to monitor for any potential short fused upgrades to a Small Craft Advisory should winds come in a little stronger than forecast. Seas will build from 2-3 feet this morning to 3-5 feet tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 87 74 88 / 50 70 50 70 MCO 75 85 74 86 / 60 80 60 80 MLB 73 87 74 86 / 70 80 70 80 VRB 73 87 73 87 / 80 80 70 80 LEE 75 88 76 89 / 50 80 50 70 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 50 80 50 80 ORL 75 87 75 88 / 60 80 60 80 FPR 73 87 72 87 / 80 90 70 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1184032 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 PM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1054 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A moist airmass already in place across central Florida this morning, with morning soundings at XMR/TBW showing PW values around 2.1-2.2". PW values will continue to increase through the day, as S/SW flow continues to transport deep tropical moisture northeastward across the region. Convective coverage is isolated to scattered this morning, but some breaks in the cloud cover should ramp up shower and storm coverage through the remainder of the day, with high rain chances in place (PoPs 80-90%). Forecast rainfall totals for today into tonight range from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or higher possible, especially in any repeated rounds of showers and storms through this afternoon and evening. This could produce minor flooding in low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. Additional storm threats will include lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph as low level southerly winds increase through this afternoon. This may also lead to breezy conditions along the coast from the Cape southward, with sustained speeds to 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph possible this afternoon. Cloud cover and increasing rainfall coverage should hold max temps in the mid to upper 80s over much of the area, which are values that are near to below normal for this time of year. Still, it will be warm and muggy as dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased wind speeds, especially for the nearshore waters, as low level southerly flow will be on the rise through this afternoon, and should lead to sustained winds of 15-20 knots over much of the waters. Small craft exercise caution headlines are now in place for this afternoon across all waters, except nearshore Volusia. These southerly winds will remain elevated into tonight, and will have to monitor for any potential short fused upgrades to a Small Craft Advisory should winds come in a little stronger than forecast. Seas will build from 2-3 feet this morning to 3-5 feet tonight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s. No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding. Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there`s still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low. GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions become MVFR generally after 15z with increasing SHRA/TSRA at the sites thru 21z. Hi-res guidance suggests rain chances decreasing north to south 00z and beyond with VCSH left behind. IFR CIG/VIS are possible among heavier SHRA/TSRA. Winds 10-12 kt may gust up to 20 kt outside of convection, gradually veering S after 21z. Continued lower confidence in SHRA after 03z, though the highest chances remain MLB south. && .MARINE... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Winds and seas generally favorable for boating close to shore, but SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and SCT lightning storms are expected through the period. Small craft should exercise caution offshore later this afternoon and overnight as conditions become poor due to increasing winds and building seas. Ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters, producing SW-SSW winds 10-15 kts through the early afternoon. A surface disturbance slowly forming near/offshore Jacksonville will tighten the pressure gradient, shifting winds to the SSW-S and increasing to 15-20 kts across the offshore waters from the late afternoon and through the overnight. Seas 1-3 ft this morning increase to 3-5 ft, occasionally up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Wednesday-Saturday...Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 5-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, the should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1184019 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:42 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 733 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions become MVFR generally after 15z with increasing SHRA/TSRA at the sites thru 21z. Hi-res guidance suggests rain chances decreasing north to south 00z and beyond with VCSH left behind. IFR CIG/VIS are possible among heavier SHRA/TSRA. Winds 10-12 kt may gust up to 20 kt outside of convection, gradually veering S after 21z. Continued lower confidence in SHRA after 03z, though the highest chances remain MLB south. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s. No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding. Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there`s still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low. GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view. && .MARINE... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Winds and seas generally favorable for boating close to shore, but SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and SCT lightning storms are expected through the period. Small craft should exercise caution offshore later this afternoon and overnight as conditions become poor due to increasing winds and building seas. Ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters, producing SW-SSW winds 10-15 kts through the early afternoon. A surface disturbance slowly forming near/offshore Jacksonville will tighten the pressure gradient, shifting winds to the SSW-S and increasing to 15-20 kts across the offshore waters from the late afternoon and through the overnight. Seas 1-3 ft this morning increase to 3-5 ft, occasionally up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Wednesday-Saturday...Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 5-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, the should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1184003 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:30 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 526 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Atlantic ridge axis remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, while to the north the stationary front meanders north and south a bit over North Florida. A weak surface disturbance forming along the boundary over or just offshore of Northeast Florida will tighten the pressure gradient across the area, building SW-S winds a bit to 10-15 mph with some gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. All the rain and cloud cover will prevent any meaningful development of the sea breeze, and keep temperatures at or below normal, generally in the M-U80s. While less hot, the very high humidity keep heat indices in the 90s. No significant change in rain chances and amounts since the afternoon forecast. PoPs 40-60 pct this morning increase to 70-90 pct this afternoon, then back off to 30-50 pct tonight, with the higher chances to the south. This results in a NW-SE oriented QPF gradient across the area ranging from 1-2" to the north to 2-3" to the south, with locally higher amounts of 4" or more possible where repeated rounds of heavy showers and storms setup. Long and skinny thermodynamic profiles characteristic of these high rainfall events show enough CAPE for occasional cloud to ground lightning, and 850mb winds 30-40 kts could lead to surface gusts up to 40 mph in heavier precipitation, but the primary storm hazard will be heavy rain. Any heavy showers or storms that become slow/stationary, like the one yesterday that produced 2-3" of rainfall in the eastern Orlando/Sanford metro and over 5" in the rural areas to the east, could produce minor flooding in low- lying, poor drainage, and urban areas. The antecedent dry conditions mean the ground will be able to handle this kind of rainfall for a time, especially if given a quiet period to soak in, but repeated rounds will eventually lead to more impactful and persistent flooding. Wednesday-Friday...The surface disturbance/low near Northeast Florida is forecast to continue developing as is pushes northeastward into the western Atlantic. The ECM is the faster solution, developing a closed low by Wednesday morning, while the GFS lags behind by about 24 hours. The ECM then gives up on the low, absorbing it into another weak frontal boundary approaching the eastern seaboard, while the GFS further deepens the low as it tracks northeast. The ECM solution would result in a further lowering of rain chances and QPF across the north half of ECFL than currently advertised as early as Wednesday, while the tighter pressure gradient across Florida between the low and the Atlantic high advertised by the GFS would continue to transport the deep tropical moisture across Florida and continue high rain chances, especially to the south. Thus far the GFS has been performing better, so going to keep the forecast leaned towards that solution for now, calling for high rain chances with continued rounds of showers and lightning storms, including during the overnight hours. Daily rainfall amounts of 1-3" with locally higher amounts of 4" remain possible, with event totals reaching 2-3" up north and 3-4" down south by Saturday morning. Occasional cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds will also remain possible with storms. Afternoon highs remain at or below normal but muggy in the M-U80s. Saturday-Monday...Model agreement might be a little better early this morning than previous days, but there`s still enough variation between models and runs to keep forecast confidence low. GFS continues to be much more aggressive with development of the low pressure system ejecting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic seaboard at this point, and a wave/disturbance/low forming in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend (the organization and location of this feature changes from run-to-run). On the other hand, the ECM kills the low in the western Atlantic, and barely develops a wave in the Gulf. As a result, the GFS now continues rain chances for Florida while the ECM becomes drier, a flip-flop form this time yesterday. Given the low confidence, went with a blend that continues to favor the GFS given its aforementioned performance, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into next week, until a clearer picture comes into view. && .MARINE... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Today-Tonight...Winds and seas generally favorable for boating close to shore, but SCT-NUM offshore moving showers and SCT lightning storms are expected through the period. Small craft should exercise caution offshore later this afternoon and overnight as conditions become poor due to increasing winds and building seas. Ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains suppressed well to the south across the Caribbean, with a stationary front draped across north Florida and into the adjacent Atlantic waters, producing SW-SSW winds 10-15 kts through the early afternoon. A surface disturbance slowly forming near/offshore Jacksonville will tighten the pressure gradient, shifting winds to the SSW-S and increasing to 15-20 kts across the offshore waters from the late afternoon and through the overnight. Seas 1-3 ft this morning increase to 3-5 ft, occasionally up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream. Wednesday-Saturday...Subtle shifts in the position of the Atlantic ridge axis and a bit of uncertainty in the development of the disturbance/low pressure system off the southeastern seaboard decrease confidence in the surface wind forecast. Winds should generally remain Srly at 5-15 kts after they settle Wednesday afternoon, but how far SWrly or SErly winds become, and further increases to 15-20 kts, will depend on evolution of the aforementioned features. Better confidence the period will remain wet with SCT-NUM showers and SCT lightning storms moving offshore, and that while conditions could become poor, the should remain below advisory levels. Seas 2-4 ft Wednesday-Thursday settle to 1-3 ft Friday-Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 525 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Generally VFR conditions become MVFR at most sites beyond 12z. VCSH looks most probable thru this time as well, with a gradual uptick in SHRA/VCTS 12z-15z and beyond. IFR CIG/VIS is possible due to pockets of heavier RA and isolated TSRA, with decreasing TS/VCTS coverage 21z-00z. Winds remain 10-12 kt with gusts 15-20 kt thru the day, gradually veering from SSW to S by 21z. Lower confidence in SHRA exists after 00z, though the highest chances appear to be from MLB southward. This is handled by VCSH until confidence increases in lower rain chances. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1183985 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:09 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 153 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 150 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Generally VFR conditions become MVFR at most sites beyond 12z. VCSH looks most probable thru this time as well, with a gradual uptick in SHRA/VCTS 12z-15z and beyond. IFR CIG/VIS is possible due to pockets of heavier RA and isolated TSRA, with decreasing TS/VCTS coverage 21z-00z. Winds remain 10-12 kt with gusts 15-20 kt thru the day, gradually veering from SSW to S by 21z. Lower confidence in SHRA exists after 00z, though the highest chances appear to be from MLB southward. This is handled by VCSH until confidence increases in lower rain chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots. Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. PoPs overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak. Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 87 73 87 73 / 80 60 80 60 MCO 84 74 86 74 / 90 70 90 70 MLB 85 74 85 74 / 90 80 90 70 VRB 85 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 LEE 87 76 89 75 / 80 60 80 60 SFB 86 74 88 74 / 80 60 80 60 ORL 84 75 87 75 / 90 60 90 60 FPR 84 73 86 73 / 90 80 90 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1183965 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 AM 11.Jun.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 937 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 929 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop on lingering outflow boundaries from earlier convection as of around 930pm. Locally heavy rainfall has already been observed over portions of northeastern Orange and southeastern Seminole Counties, where rainfall totals have reached up to 5-5.5" in some spots. Rain chances will continue overnight, with CAMs supporting repeated rounds of showers, with embedded lightning storms. PoPs overnight generally 40-60%, with the highest coverage expected south of Orlando. A brief lull in activity will be possible after midnight, before coverage increases once again towards daybreak. Gusty winds and lightning strikes will remain possible in any thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall will be a threat in areas that see multiple rounds of showers and storms or persistent cells, as has been the case in Orange and Seminole Counties this evening. Precipitation and high cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the lower to mid-70s. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 -Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop through late afternoon and this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. -Higher coverage of showers and storms from Tuesday onward this week will produce rounds of heavy rainfall and lead to the potential for localized flooding. -Increased cloud cover and rainfall will lead to a drop in maximum temperatures through the rest of the week, with highs near to below normal. Currently-Tonight...Showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage through the remainder of the afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous. Some stronger storms will still be possible, especially with storm/boundary interactions with the east coast sea breeze. Main threat will continue to be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40 to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. This activity will largely diminish or push offshore through late evening, but there will be some lingering shower and storm chances overnight, as deep tropical moisture continues to lift northeast across the area. CAM guidance seems to indicate there will at least be somewhat of a break initially, but then showers and storms begin to increase once again late in the night toward daybreak Tuesday, pushing east- northeast into the area. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will again be possible with any persistent or repeated rounds of storms. Mostly cloudy conditions forecast overnight, with lows in the low to mid 70s. Tuesday-Friday...Models show an area of low pressure developing along a weak front north of the area early Tuesday, with this feature shifting eastward in the morning. The pressure gradient tightens between this feature and subtropical high pressure southeast of Florida, with low level S/SW winds increasing and pulling deeper tropical moisture northward into the area. PW values rise up to 2.2-2.5 inches, with moisture remaining elevated across the area through late week as the weak front remains just north or begins to push into northern portions of east central Florida. Rain chances remain high through the period (PoPs up to 80-90 percent) each day, with repeated rounds of showers and storms possible. Main storm threats will be gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and locally heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches will continue to be possible each day. Forecasted total amounts for Tuesday through Friday night have been nudged down only slightly, with amounts of 4-7 inches from Osceola/southern Brevard counties southward and 2-3 inches across northern portions of east central FL. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal to Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across all of ECFL through the period. While convection will be enhanced during the daytime period, there may be some continuation of showers and storms through the overnight hours. Very dry antecedent conditions with moderate to severe drought conditions in place will initially be able to handle some of the heavier rainfall, but localized urban and poor drainage flooding concerns will continue to grow through mid week onward, depending on overall amounts. Increased cloud cover and greater coverage of showers and storms will allow maximum temperatures to drop to near to below normal values, ranging from the mid to upper 80s for most areas. The moist humid airmass will maintain mild overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Sunday...(Previous Discussion) Guidance has further diverged and further decreased forecast confidence going into the weekend. GFS develops a surface cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico, while the ECM develops little more than a wave. This results in a much drier solution from the GFS while the ECM keeps some moisture across the area and continues rain chances. Official forecast reflects a compromise blend between the two, keeping relatively high rain chances and near to below normal temperatures through the weekend, but changes are likely as we drawn nearer. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 734 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Showers and storms continue, generally from around MCO/TIX northward, developing along the sea breeze and outflow boundaries from earlier convection. Will see this activity, and the associated TEMPOs diminish through around 1Z. Then, VCSH for most of the overnight especially from MLB southward. -SHRA, with MVFR VIS and CIG reductions will begin along the Treasure Coast near sunrise, spreading northward through the morning hours, before continuing for much of the area through the day on Tuesday. Embedded lightning storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon, so VCTS has been included. CIGs BKN030-020 are forecast area-wide by 12Z and will persist through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tonight...Poor boating conditions offshore this evening, as southerly winds increase up to 15-20 knots, mainly offshore of Volusia and Brevard counties. Otherwise, wind speeds 10-15 knots as they veer to the southwest overnight. Seas 2-3 feet. Scattered to numerous offshore moving showers and storms will continue through this evening, with a few stronger storms possible. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Pattern remains fairly static through Friday. SWrly winds Tuesday shift to Srly Wednesday and Thursday, then start to shift to the SE Friday as high pressure over the Atlantic builds back. Winds speeds increase up to 15-20 knots into Tuesday night, but otherwise will generally range from 10-15 knots. High rain chances through the period with rounds of SCT- NUM showers and lightning storms. High cloud cover will prevent meaningful development of the sea breeze. Seas generally 1-3 ft outside of storms, increasing up to 2-4 ft Tuesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 355 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Increased moisture and shower and storm chances, as well as greater cloud cover will lead to near to below normal highs in the mid to upper 80s through the remainder of the week. This will keep Min RH values well above critical levels. Improvement of drought conditions will also occur across areas that receive heavier rainfall. Main concern from storms will be lightning strikes that may be able to start new fires, and gusty winds that could lead to control issues from any existing brush fires. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 73 89 / 40 80 50 80 MCO 76 85 74 86 / 50 80 50 80 MLB 75 86 73 87 / 60 90 70 90 VRB 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90 LEE 76 89 76 90 / 40 70 40 80 SFB 76 88 75 89 / 40 80 50 80 ORL 77 86 75 88 / 50 80 50 80 FPR 74 86 72 87 / 60 90 70 90 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
