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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1184116 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 12.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 310 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Numerous to widespread showers on radar early this morning, mainly from the Tampa area southward. At the surface, there is an area of low pressure centered across Pinellas county. It is evident on radar and satellite imagery with bands of precipitation wrapping around this low. Lightning activity has decreased a good bit throughout the overnight hours with this activity and expect just a few rumbles of thunder will be possible throughout the remainder of the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours or so have been rather substantial in some areas. A station is Siesta Key has reported near a foot of rain with many locations over 5 inches. The observations line up fairly well with MRMS 24 hour rainfall estimates. The higher rainfall amounts have been across Sarasota, Manatee, Hardee, DeSoto, Charlotte, and Lee counties. Unfortunately, the latest CAM guidance suggests another round of heavy rainfall today across southwest Florida. PW values will remain in the 2.1-2.3 inch range, near the maximum climatological values for mid June. Additionally, the jet streak will persist across the northern Gulf of Mexico with the forecast area in the favored region for divergence aloft. There continues to the signal for another round of rainfall near 8-12 inches across southwest Florida over the next 24 hours. The antecedent conditions have changed drastically for these areas over the last 24 hours. Due to these numerous factors, went ahead and extended the Flood Watch northwards to include all of the counties mentioned earlier. Expect the majority of the heavier rainfall will be to the south of the I-4 corridor with much lighter amounts to the north along the Nature Coast. Temperatures will once again be on the cooler side with the persistent precipitation and cloud cover. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 80s for most locations. The upper level trough will pivot across the area on Thursday and Friday. PW values remain well above 2 inches. Models depict numerous to widespread showers and storms during this timeframe as well. The Flood Watch currently goes through Thursday evening but may need to be extended into the day on Friday if current model trends continue. Highs during this period will once again be on the cooler side with highs in the low to mid 80s. The focus for precipitation continues to be from I-4 southward with lower amounts to the north. Models depict ridging returning aloft early next week. This will lead to rising temperatures with highs returning to the low 90s. Rain chances will be more associated with the daily seabreeze activity. A couple of model solutions even want to push a front slightly through the area with dewpoints down into the 60s early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Widespread showers and storms are currently ongoing at most of the terminals sites. The southern terminals of RSW and FMY are seeing a brief break in the precipitation but expect another wave of precipitation will developed there near daybreak. Timing each of these waves of precipitation is difficult and have VCTS mentioned throughout much of the TAF period. Expect flight conditions will generally be MVFR with some period of IFR in heavier downpours and even some periods of VFR as well during breaks in the rain. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Tropical moisture will continue to lift north over the region, with southwest to south winds continuing. Multiple rounds of showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected through the end of the week, with winds and seas higher near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Numerous to widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue through the next several days as deep tropical moisture continues over the region. No fire weather concerns are anticipated at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 78 86 78 / 90 80 90 80 FMY 86 76 84 76 / 100 90 100 90 GIF 88 75 86 76 / 90 80 90 70 SRQ 87 76 86 76 / 90 90 100 90 BKV 89 72 87 71 / 90 60 90 70 SPG 86 80 86 80 / 100 80 100 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1184107 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:36 AM 12.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weak low pressure centered just offshore of Manatee/Sarasota counties is leading to a corridor of heavier rainfall in Sarasota. Between 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen with widespread reports of flooding in the area. This heavy rain will shift to the southeast over the next hour or two. Then, overnight, a diminishing trend is expected in terms of coverage of rain and storms, especially across the Tampa Bay region. On and off activity will continue for SWFL throughout the overnight period. Overall forecast remains unchanged with the heaviest rainfall amounts through Saturday centered across Lee and Charlotte counties where a Flood Watch is currently in effect. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Widespread showers and storms are currently ongoing at most of the terminals sites. The southern terminals of RSW and FMY are seeing a brief break in the precipitation but expect another wave of precipitation will developed there near daybreak. Timing each of these waves of precipitation is difficult and have VCTS mentioned throughout much of the TAF period. Expect flight conditions will generally be MVFR with some period of IFR in heavier downpours and even some periods of VFR as well during breaks in the rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 78 86 78 / 90 80 90 80 FMY 86 76 84 76 / 100 90 100 90 GIF 88 75 86 76 / 90 80 90 70 SRQ 87 76 86 76 / 90 90 100 90 BKV 89 72 87 71 / 90 60 90 70 SPG 86 80 86 80 / 100 80 100 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee- Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1184081 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 12.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 759 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A weak low pressure centered just offshore of Manatee/Sarasota counties is leading to a corridor of heavier rainfall in Sarasota. Between 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen with widespread reports of flooding in the area. This heavy rain will shift to the southeast over the next hour or two. Then, overnight, a diminishing trend is expected in terms of coverage of rain and storms, especially across the Tampa Bay region. On and off activity will continue for SWFL throughout the overnight period. Overall forecast remains unchanged with the heaviest rainfall amounts through Saturday centered across Lee and Charlotte counties where a Flood Watch is currently in effect. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 757 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Numerous rain and thunderstorms expected throughout the forecast period for SWFL sites. A break in the convection is expected for northern sites overnight with MVFR cigs continuing. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will increase in coverage again on Wednesday morning. Brief IFR or lower conditions expected in heavier activity. && .DISCUSSION... The pattern aloft over the region this afternoon features troughing from the southeast extending over Florida and ridging centered to the southeast of the state. Flow in between these features remains out of the southwest, helping to transport a deep plume of tropical moisture over the peninsula and generally keeping Florida within a favorable region for divergence aloft. At the surface, a boundary remains stalled across northern Florida, with a weak disturbance trying to form along it. This whole setup has led to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms, mainly from just north of I-4 southward, with more scattered convection to the north. For the rest of today, the highest rainfall totals should continue to be over this same region and then for tonight, hi-res guidance continues to show a period of lower coverage before picking back up again late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Highest rainfall totals have so far been mainly over Lee County (5 inches or so) with a few other areas seeing 2-4 inches in some training and then 1-3 inches elsewhere. The potential remains to see another 1 to 3 inches through today, and this will likely continue to cause some localized flooding in these areas. The rest of the region should be able to handle the rain given how dry it has been, and if we do get a bit of a break tonight, that will help even more. However, this is all dependent on where the heaviest rain falls and in what timeframe, so things could certainly change as far as the Flood Watch, which remains in effect for Charlotte and Lee Counties through at least Thursday evening. The forecast does not change a whole lot through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with the highest rain chances continuing for the southern half of the area. Event rainfall totals could end up being over a foot or higher for some locations over southwest Florida and likely much closer toward the Nature Coast. This heavy rainfall and possible flooding will continue to be the main issue over the next several days, and conditions will have to be closely monitored for possible watches or warnings, especially with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall expected to impact the same locations over the next few days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 87 78 87 / 60 90 80 80 FMY 76 85 76 86 / 100 90 100 100 GIF 76 87 75 88 / 80 90 80 80 SRQ 77 86 76 89 / 80 90 90 90 BKV 72 88 72 91 / 50 80 70 70 SPG 80 86 80 89 / 70 90 80 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
