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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Jacksonville, FL (North Florida) Selection: |
| #1180262 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 16.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A frontal boundary continues to slowly drift south of the region early this morning, currently draped over southern counties as of 06Z. Some areas of lower clouds have developed in these areas, but should dissipate by sunrise as the front finally clears the region. Mostly sunny skies and generally high pressure will dominate our weather today. The gradient should be just strong enough to limit the sea breeze to just right near the immediate coast. Given that the front is more or less a moisture boundary, temps will be slightly above average as high pressure starts to build aloft as well - in the upper 80s to low 90s. A weak pressure gradient and a lack of any significant cloud cover will allow us to drop to near average temps overnight, generally mid to upper 60s and near to low 70s near the coast and St. Johns River. Some higher clouds will start to fill in later in the night, though we will remain dry. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Friday...Moisture levels increase in low level SW flow ahead of next weather system, but not enough to kick off anything more than isolated showers/storms by the afternoon hours as sea breeze fronts push inland from both coasts late in the day, but not before Max temps reach the lower 90s for most inland locations and mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Friday Night...Warm and muggy conditions expected ahead of next weather system as SW flow remains elevated during the overnight hours and low temps only fall into the lower/middle 70s. Some pre- frontal showers and storms may impact portions of inland SE GA at times, but overall mostly dry conditions are expected. Saturday and Saturday Night...Models in better agreement with slow moving frontal boundary being pushed across the region with best rainfall chances across SE GA Saturday afternoon, then into NE FL by the evening hours with activity continuing during the overnight hours as frontal boundary ends up across NE FL by sunrise Sunday morning. Timing of the frontal boundary later in the day will allow for maximum daytime heating as breezy SW flow at 15-20G30 mph will keep the Atlantic Sea Breeze pinned at the coast and push Max temps into the lower 90s all the way to the beaches, along with peak heat indices into the 100-105F range for some NE FL locations. This heating will supply enough instability for strong to severe storms with damaging winds as the main threat and the slow movement of the frontal boundary will lead to a heavy rainfall threat, especially across inland SE GA/Suwannee River Valley where wet soils from the last rainfall event will led to better chances for localized flooding. Low temps fall into the upper 60s behind the front across SE GA, while another warm and muggy night is expected across NE FL with lows in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Sunday...Digging mid level trough through the SE US states and trailing moisture behind the frontal boundary may still lead to some lingering scattered showers and storms across the region, but confidence in this scenario is only low to moderate as not enough lingering deep moisture may be available and rainfall chances may end up lower than currently forecast by the model blends and Sunday afternoon may end with clearing skies and breezy West winds with temps at slightly lower values in the upper 80s/near 90 degrees than previous days. Monday/Tuesday...Amplifying mid level trough off the Carolinas and associated surface low pressure development has trended the forecast cooler and drier as a North Flow on Monday and Northeast Flow on Tuesday will hold Max temps down closer to normal values in the middle/upper 80s with coolest values across SE GA and the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some coastal showers will be possible, overall rainfall chances will be lower than normal this period as well as lows falling into the 60s over inland areas. Wednesday...Long range models have high pressure ridging building back into the region at the surface and aloft which will keep dry conditions on track, but Max temps will push back into the lower 90s over inland areas with more light/variable winds, while the East Coast sea breeze will keep Atlantic Coastal areas cooler in the 80s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR is mostly prevailing at area terminals as a front passes through the region. Some patches of lower stratus have formed along and just ahead of the front near GNV, which may prevail MVFR at times over the next few hours. The front clears later this morning, and fair conditions are expected area wide through the rest of the forecast period, with the exception of some breezy winds that may gust around 20 kts at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 A frontal boundary clears area waters to the south this morning, with a ridge of high pressure settling in through Friday. A sea breeze is expected to form by Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Associated high pressure shifts from the northeast to east of area waters this weekend as another frontal system approaches. The system will remain in the vicinity of the region through at least Monday, returning chances for showers and thunderstorms. Another ridge looks to build in from the north by Monday. Rip Currents: Offshore flow will lead to a Low Risk today, while a stronger sea breeze on Friday will lead to a Moderate Risk. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 67 89 71 / 0 0 20 30 SSI 88 71 84 74 / 0 0 10 10 JAX 92 68 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 SGJ 90 69 90 72 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 90 65 91 71 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 90 66 92 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180253 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:24 AM 16.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 108 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 No significant updates to the forecast this evening. Earlier convection has dissipated with remnant debris clouds fading as well. A weak frontal boundary will lazily drift across the region tonight and may generate a few light showers, more or less sprinkles across portions of NE FL late tonight. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will bring overnight lows much closer to normal tonight compared to 24 hours ago. Lows tonight will fall to the mid/upper 60s across most of the area, including the beaches as offshore flow prevails. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front is along the Altamaha River Basin at 12 noon and will reside over NE FL this mid afternoon with active weather just south of the frontal feature. A few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe through mid to late afternoon as the cold front continues to track slowly to the southeast. The main threats are limited severe storms with damaging gusty winds with some small hail. With the unidirectional flow the threat of tornados is quite limited to almost nil. The best coverage of thunderstorms will drift to the SE as the afternoon progresses drifting to central Florida by the later part of the afternoon into early evening. The front will drift south into central Florida later tonight with drier air working into the region with mostly clear skies on tap. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, and beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Cold front exits to our south Thursday morning and stalls across central FL through Friday. Upper level ridging and drier airmass briefly build into the region on Thursday bringing sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Southwesterly return flow develops on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front and gradually increases moisture to the region. There may be just enough moisture to trigger a few afternoon/evening showers/storms along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Models continue to differ on pre-frontal storms for Friday night with the ECMWF bringing in convection and the GFS remaining dry. Kept the blend showing isolated to scattered shower/storms mainly over SE GA and Suwannee Valley for Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper shortwave trough with attendant surface low will drag a cold front through the Deep South on Saturday before shifting off the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. This will bring another batch of heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential to the area on Saturday. With the front coming in from the northwest, highs will range from the low 80s over inland SE GA to low 90s in north- central FL. Heat indices may reach 100 F in north-central FL. Convection gradually clears from north to south through the day on Sunday as the cold front shifts south into central FL and drier air filters in. Rain chances will be limited Monday and Tuesday but there may enough moisture to support isolated showers developing along the afternoon sea breezes. Above normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR is mostly prevailing at area terminals as a front passes through the region. Some patches of lower stratus have formed along and just ahead of the front near GNV, which may prevail MVFR at times over the next few hours. The front clears later this morning, and fair conditions are expected area wide through the rest of the forecast period, with the exception of some breezy winds that may gust around 20 kts at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast Florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout. Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 67 88 72 / 0 0 30 40 SSI 88 71 84 74 / 0 0 10 30 JAX 91 67 91 72 / 0 0 10 20 SGJ 90 69 89 72 / 0 0 0 10 GNV 90 65 90 70 / 0 0 10 10 OCF 90 66 91 72 / 0 0 10 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1180235 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:42 AM 16.May.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 829 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 826 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 No significant updates to the forecast this evening. Earlier convection has dissipated with remnant debris clouds fading as well. A weak frontal boundary will lazily drift across the region tonight and may generate a few light showers, more or less sprinkles across portions of NE FL late tonight. Otherwise, a drier and cooler airmass will bring overnight lows much closer to normal tonight compared to 24 hours ago. Lows tonight will fall to the mid/upper 60s across most of the area, including the beaches as offshore flow prevails. For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Cold front is along the Altamaha River Basin at 12 noon and will reside over NE FL this mid afternoon with active weather just south of the frontal feature. A few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe through mid to late afternoon as the cold front continues to track slowly to the southeast. The main threats are limited severe storms with damaging gusty winds with some small hail. With the unidirectional flow the threat of tornados is quite limited to almost nil. The best coverage of thunderstorms will drift to the SE as the afternoon progresses drifting to central Florida by the later part of the afternoon into early evening. The front will drift south into central Florida later tonight with drier air working into the region with mostly clear skies on tap. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s with upper 60s to near 70 at the coast, and beaches. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Cold front exits to our south Thursday morning and stalls across central FL through Friday. Upper level ridging and drier airmass briefly build into the region on Thursday bringing sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Southwesterly return flow develops on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front and gradually increases moisture to the region. There may be just enough moisture to trigger a few afternoon/evening showers/storms along the sea breezes as they move further inland and meet along the US 301 corridor later in the day. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Models continue to differ on pre-frontal storms for Friday night with the ECMWF bringing in convection and the GFS remaining dry. Kept the blend showing isolated to scattered shower/storms mainly over SE GA and Suwannee Valley for Friday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Upper shortwave trough with attendant surface low will drag a cold front through the Deep South on Saturday before shifting off the coast of the Carolinas Sunday night into Monday. This will bring another batch of heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storm potential to the area on Saturday. With the front coming in from the northwest, highs will range from the low 80s over inland SE GA to low 90s in north- central FL. Heat indices may reach 100 F in north-central FL. Convection gradually clears from north to south through the day on Sunday as the cold front shifts south into central FL and drier air filters in. Rain chances will be limited Monday and Tuesday but there may enough moisture to support isolated showers developing along the afternoon sea breezes. Above normal temperatures return with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 826 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Earlier convection has diminished and further development is not anticipated. VFR conditions with southwesterly winds which will gradually fall at or below 10 knots this evening as a weak cold front pushes across the area. Winds will veer northwesterly behind the front and persist through the period. Potential exists for a late sea breeze and wind shift at KSGJ and possibly KSSI and KCRG during the late afternoon Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Line of convection currently resides from JAX to GNV with showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms contain small hail and wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots at this particular time. The convection will start to shift to the south and east the next couple hours as a cold front shifts from SE GA into NE FL. The convection will last through 20z over the FL TAF sites. The heavy rainfall and lower ceilings will also cause periods of MVFR and isolated IFR, as indicated in TEMPO groups through 20z. AS the convective storm shifts south, some residual rain may occur between 20z and 22z but cigs/vsbys will be primarily VFR. After the initial bout of tstms through 20z, VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period with mainly scattered to broken high cirroform clouds in the wake, with clear skies overnight. Westerly winds of 8 to 12 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon, becoming light westerly after sunset through the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Widespread showers and the potential for strong to severe storms are expected over our local waters through late afternoon mainly over the northeast Florida waters. Stronger storms may produce wind gusts of 35-50 knots and small hail and perhaps a waterspout. Conditions will improve from north to south late this afternoon and early evening as the cold front moves across the coastal waters. Westerly winds will gradually subside overnight and early Thursday as weak high pressure moves over the southeastern states. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next frontal boundary that will impact our area this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact our local waters late Friday night through the weekend, with a few strong storms possible this weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues today due to unsettled weather, dropping to low Thursday with generally weakening offshore flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 65 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 87 68 88 71 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 88 67 91 67 / 60 0 0 0 SGJ 87 68 90 69 / 80 10 0 0 GNV 84 65 90 65 / 80 0 0 0 OCF 84 68 90 66 / 90 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
