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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Melbourne, FL (East Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1180244 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 16.May.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1055 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 After an early start to the storms today, the KMLB WSR-88D radar is mostly quiet this evening, only showing a couple light returns across the Atlantic waters. Satellite imagery and local observations show mostly clear skies across the north, with a swath of low and high level clouds streaming across the south, mainly from central Osceola to Indian River southward. The frontal boundary is currently across northern-central Florida this evening, and is progged to shift southward into east central Florida tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated lightning storms (PoP 20- 40 percent) will be possible late tonight and into Wednesday morning, mainly from Titusville to Kissimmee southward. Greatest potential for storms will be from Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee southward a little before sunrise. The main storm threats with any storm that develops will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions tonight. Mostly clear across the north with partly cloudy skies expected across the south tonight, with southwest to west winds around 5-10 mph. Overnight lows will be in the low 70s, except upper 60s across far northern Lake/Volusia counties && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 1054 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Mostly dry with some showers and storms possible late tonight and into Wednesday, mainly across the south. Have included VCSH for VRB southward starting at 15Z, transitioning to VCTS for those sites at 18Z. Have not included TEMPOs at this time due to timing and coverage confidence being too low. Southwest to west winds around 5KT tonight will increase to 5- 10 KT by mid-morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Small craft should exercise caution in the offshore waters of Volusia and Brevard for southwest winds of 15-20 KT tonight. Otherwise, southwest winds will be 10-15KT. Seas will be 2-3ft in the nearshore waters and 3-4ft in the offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible tonight and into Wednesday, mainly from Cape Canaveral southward. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Tonight...Have cancelled the SVR Watch early after coordination with SPC. Considerable debris cloudiness and weakening low level convergence will limit risk of severe storms. But will see some shallow convection (showers) move quickly eastward and there are outflow boundaries lurking that could spark 1 or 2 more storms next couple hours. Frontal boundary currently over the FL Big Bend will sag into central FL tonight and maintain a 20-30 percent PoP. Wind fields have been pretty chaotic with the rounds of diurnal convection but a more uniform westerly flow will develop overnight 5-10 mph. Min temps as low as the mid 60s across the far north but low to mid 70s most elsewhere. Thu...Scattered showers and a few storms may be ongoing across southern sections early along the slowing frontal boundary. Scattered storms may redevelop during the daylight morning hours OKeechobee to the Treasure coast and a few could be strong. Will watch for sea breeze development in the afternoon which could provide some addl lift. Drier air filters into the north half of FA so no rain chances Orlando northward. Noticeably less humidity also but very warm with max temps reaching the low to mid 90s all areas. Thu Night-Fri Night...Weak shortwave ridging in the mid-levels with increasing heights taking up residency across the FL peninsula. There will be some weak, subtle, impulses across the northern peninsula but stronger energy remains north of the local area. At the surface a weak moisture boundary strewn east-west across the central FL peninsula becomes diffuse by early Fri as winds become southerly again and moisture increases/spreads back northward. There will be a seabreeze on Fri that moves inland with a collision late across the central peninsula as PWATs surge to 1.65-1.80 inches. Generally dry conditions Thu night and into at least early afternoon on Fri. For now we carry ISOLD lightning storm potential from southern Brevard County to southern Osceola County southward from generally late (Fri) afternoon-early evening. Overnight lows in the 60s to L70s Thu overnight and U60s to L70s (few M70s) Fri overnight. Highs on Fri near 90F to L90s along the coast and M90s inland - few U90s across Okeechobee County and the western far interior of the Treasure Coast counties. Peak afternoon heat indices in the U90s to L100s. Sat-Wed...Initial mid-level ridging across the FL peninsula quickly gets nudged east into the western Atlc as troughing slides across the Deep South and FL peninsula (Sun). As the upper troughing and associated upper low move into the western Atlc early next week mid- level ridging will amplify northward from Mexico, across eastern TX and the Gulf Coast States. FL will remain on the backside of troughing with NW/N H500 winds into Tue night, as the ridging slowly expands across the GoMex and gradually into the western Fl peninsula. At the surface, the next frontal passage is poised for late Sun with high pressure building into the region into mid next week. Mainly diurnal (Scattered) showers/storms Sat-Sun, decreasing in coverage into next week with some drier overall conditions. High temperatures remain above normal through the period with Sat being the hottest day. High temperatures mostly range the M-U90s Sat (L90s for coast) with heat indices widespread in the L100s (few up to 105F). High temps a few degrees lower Sun into early next week but still warmer than normal with maxes in the L-M90s for most, except U80s at the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 91 69 90 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 73 92 70 95 / 20 10 0 10 MLB 73 91 70 90 / 30 10 0 10 VRB 72 93 68 92 / 40 30 0 10 LEE 70 91 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 SFB 70 93 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 ORL 72 92 70 95 / 20 10 0 10 FPR 71 93 68 92 / 40 40 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
