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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1180236 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 16.May.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 857 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 As a cold front passes through the forecasting region, temperatures in the FL Panhandle, AL, and GA will turn relatively cooler. Dewpoints will also be on the drier side post-frontal. Patchy fog could develop overnight in the Apalachicola National Forest region and southeastern FL Big Bend counties where a seabreeze pushed across earlier. As such, patchy fog was included in the gridded hourly forecast at those locations. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Dry and benign conditions are expected through tomorrow now that we`re post-frontal. Mostly clear skies are expected tomorrow. Expect daytime highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The next round of severe weather is possible Friday into Saturday and SPC shows a marginal risk for portions of the area at this time. The main threat looks to be Friday night into Saturday, with one or more complexes of storms moving through the region. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out. There are still a lot of timing differences to be ironed out, so please stay tuned, and weather aware if you have outdoor/travel plans. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the remaining showers, with thunderstorms possible across eastern areas. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will remain warm to around 90 for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 706 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR conditions and light to moderate northwesterly winds are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The West Tampa buoy was reporting a 12kt SW wind with 4ft seas and a dominant period of 7 seconds. From CWF synopsis...As of this evening, a front is exiting east of Apalachee Bay. High pressure will pass across the waters on Thursday. Southerly breezes will start to increase on Friday, and a cluster of strong to severe storms will pass the waters on Saturday, all in advance of the next weak frontal passage on Sunday. High pressure will pass across the waters on Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday, with the main fire weather concern being high dispersions. Come Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast with showers and thunderstorms expected late Friday into the weekend. Given the recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days, and once again this upcoming weekend, there are currently no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 301 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 The Withlacoochee River (Valdosta Skipper Bridge) is expected to go into minor flood. The Ochlockonee River (Concord) may approach flood stage. The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday into Saturday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA. Through the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 91 68 89 / 0 0 0 40 Panama City 69 86 72 85 / 0 0 10 40 Dothan 63 88 68 87 / 0 0 10 60 Albany 63 88 67 87 / 0 0 0 50 Valdosta 65 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 30 Cross City 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 20 Apalachicola 71 85 73 83 / 0 0 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
