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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1180293 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 AM 16.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 708 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Areas of MVFR cigs will continue to be possible for all sites through the morning, with a few showers possible over KPGD, KFMY, and KRSW as well. VFR is then expected for all sites through the rest of the day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 The weak cool front will settle across the southern portions of the area today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible south of it across the southern interior and southwest Florida. West to northwest winds will bring some drier air into the inland portions of the Nature Coast south into central parts of the Florida peninsula with mostly sunny skies returning to these areas by afternoon. Tonight the boundary begins to lift back north as the next storm system develops over the south central states. The boundary moves back north of the area Friday with winds shifting back to south to southwest and moisture spreading back across the area. Hi-res models are indicating that a weakening MCS will move across the northern gulf coast and into the Nature Coast Friday morning, basically along the frontal boundary and have included a slight chance of precipitation at this time in this area. Otherwise, we could see a few sprinkles as the boundary lifts north. The south to southwest flow behind the boundary will drive the west coast sea breeze well inland on Friday with an isolated shower possible over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. For Saturday the storm system will move into the eastern U.S. with south to southwest flow persisting across the region. Enough moisture will be in place for a few showers and thunderstorms, but the flow will once again favor the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain chances. Saturday night into Sunday the cool front associated with the storm system will move into north Florida with moist southwest flow across the area. This will lead to increasing rain chances for the northern waters and Nature Coast Saturday night into Sunday with chances diminishing as you move further south. The boundary is expected to drift slowly south into the central peninsula Sunday night and then reach south Florida Monday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of this boundary during this time, while behind it northwesterly flow will bring drier air back into the area for early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Winds will shift to west and then northwest through today as the weak frontal boundary settles across the southern waters. Winds will then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north on Friday, with increasing showers and thunderstorms chances for the weekend as the next storm system moves across the eastern U.S. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over the central interior this afternoon, otherwise relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. No Red Flag conditions are expected though as winds and ERCs remain below thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 91 79 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 10 0 GIF 92 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 SRQ 88 75 91 77 / 30 10 10 0 BKV 90 65 93 71 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 88 78 89 81 / 10 10 10 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180275 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 AM 16.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 The weak cool front will settle across the southern portions of the area today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible south of it across the southern interior and southwest Florida. West to northwest winds will bring some drier air into the inland portions of the Nature Coast south into central parts of the Florida peninsula with mostly sunny skies returning to these areas by afternoon. Tonight the boundary begins to lift back north as the next storm system develops over the south central states. The boundary moves back north of the area Friday with winds shifting back to south to southwest and moisture spreading back across the area. Hi-res models are indicating that a weakening MCS will move across the northern gulf coast and into the Nature Coast Friday morning, basically along the frontal boundary and have included a slight chance of precipitation at this time in this area. Otherwise, we could see a few sprinkles as the boundary lifts north. The south to southwest flow behind the boundary will drive the west coast sea breeze well inland on Friday with an isolated shower possible over the interior during the afternoon and early evening. For Saturday the storm system will move into the eastern U.S. with south to southwest flow persisting across the region. Enough moisture will be in place for a few showers and thunderstorms, but the flow will once again favor the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain chances. Saturday night into Sunday the cool front associated with the storm system will move into north Florida with moist southwest flow across the area. This will lead to increasing rain chances for the northern waters and Nature Coast Saturday night into Sunday with chances diminishing as you move further south. The boundary is expected to drift slowly south into the central peninsula Sunday night and then reach south Florida Monday night. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue along and south of this boundary during this time, while behind it northwesterly flow will bring drier air back into the area for early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Areas of MVFR ceilings are expected this morning across the TAF sites, and could see a few showers affect the southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY and RSW. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites this afternoon. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots will increase to around 10 knots with some higher gusts by this afternoon, then diminish and become light and variable this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Winds will shift to west and then northwest through today as the weak frontal boundary settles across the southern waters. Winds will then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north on Friday, with increasing showers and thunderstorms chances for the weekend as the next storm system moves across the eastern U.S. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024 Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over the central interior this afternoon, otherwise relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. No Red Flag conditions are expected though as winds and ERCs remain below thresholds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 75 91 79 / 10 10 10 0 FMY 90 77 93 77 / 40 10 10 0 GIF 92 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 SRQ 88 75 91 77 / 30 10 10 0 BKV 90 65 93 71 / 0 0 20 0 SPG 88 78 89 81 / 10 10 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte- Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1180229 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:09 AM 16.May.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 801 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms filled in across the forecast area this morning, but the rain and cloud cover quickly cooled surface temperatures and limited the strength of convection during the afternoon. The pre-frontal trough has advanced a bit farther south a bit faster than expected, with the only remaining showers currently positioned over southwest Florida and the adjacent gulf waters. These showers will linger overnight and may lift back slightly north through Thursday morning as the front stalls across the Florida Peninsula. Rain chances for the overnight period were shifted south to line up with what is being observed on radar. Mentions of patchy fog were also added in over the Nature Coast for Thursday night/Friday morning. No other changes are planned for the evening update. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Showers and a few thunderstorms are lingering over southwest Florida this evening around KRSW, KFMY, and KPGD, with MVFR ceilings filling in around the Tampa Bay near KTPA and KPIE. These showers are expected to largely clear out over the next few hours, but are expected to return to southwest Florida later tonight and Thursday morning as a front stalls across the Florida Peninsula. Otherwise, areas of MVFR ceilings are forecast to expand after around 07-09z tonight across much of the area, lifting out by around 13-16z. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 South to southwest winds will continue over the waters today ahead of a frontal boundary, with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading southward through the rest of the day and into tonight. Winds will shift to the west and then northwest through Thursday as the boundary settles to our south and then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north, with increasing showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024 Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the next few days, with no Red Flag concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 89 75 91 / 20 10 0 10 FMY 78 91 76 93 / 40 40 0 10 GIF 73 93 70 95 / 20 10 0 10 SRQ 76 89 74 91 / 30 20 0 0 BKV 68 90 65 94 / 10 0 0 10 SPG 78 88 78 89 / 20 10 0 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
