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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Miami, FL (MFL) (South Florida) Selection: |
| #1182829 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1233 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 South Florida will remain in the periphery of a surface high located off the Carolina coastline, allowing for continued easterly flow and moisture advection across our region. This, along with an upper- level shortwave that will drift southward along the peninsula today, will lead to increased chances for rainfall across much of the region. Multiple rounds of spotty showers and a few thunderstorms have already moved across the local Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro; activity will continue through the evening, with coverage shifting westward towards interior and southwest FL as winds speeds pick up. The primary risk with the convective development today will be the risk of localized flooding due to heavy rainfall. To this effect, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed the East Coast metro area under an Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) for this afternoon. This means that for any given location within the ERO, there is at least a 5% chance that rainfall could exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of that spot. Secondary risks with the shower and storm activity today also include the chance for gusty winds and frequent lightning. The forecast will be fairly similar heading into Monday, with the exception of the surface high`s influence, which will drift eastward and will allow for lighter easterly winds to be realized across the area. Nevertheless, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain elevated given the enhanced moisture profile and continue presence of upper-level support. At this time we capped PoPs at 60% for Monday afternoon, with capped at 50%. Temperatures during the short term period will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 By Tuesday, the trough axis will exit into the Atlantic waters, allowing the weather pattern to revert to a more diurnally-driven regime. Morning showers over the Atlantic will transition into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly over areas where steepened lapse rates juxtaposes pockets of enhanced low-level convergence. The surface high will linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary, originating from low pressure over Canada, enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be positioned between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will shift the flow to southerly to west- southwesterly across much of the area. This may prove to be a ripe environment for intermittent periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely timeframe for development being in the afternoon during peak heating. The warm airmass combined with this flow over the peninsula will lead to a significant warming trend throughout the week, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses by late week. This situation will need to be monitored closely, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and south, as changes could necessitate major revisions to the forecast. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled weather is expected for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Brief periods of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at all sites this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA develop across South FL. Confidence of direct impacts remains limited at this time, but short-fuse TEMPOs could be issued as conditions deteriorate. Winds will remain out of the east at 15 kts, with chances of gusts up to 25 kts. SHRA over the Atlantic and immediate East Coast could remain a concern overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Boating conditions will continue to improve today and into the workweek as breezy easterly winds gradually diminish in strength. Seas will remain in the 3-5 ft range today, staying at or below 3 feet through the first half of the week. Nevertheless, scattered showers and storms each afternoon could result in localized higher seas and winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Breezy easterly winds along the East Coast will result in a high risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches today. The risk will diminish as the week progresses and winds die down. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 88 78 89 / 50 60 50 60 West Kendall 74 89 74 91 / 50 60 50 60 Opa-Locka 76 89 76 91 / 50 60 40 60 Homestead 76 88 76 89 / 50 60 50 60 Fort Lauderdale 77 86 77 88 / 50 60 50 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 87 77 89 / 50 60 40 60 Pembroke Pines 76 90 77 92 / 50 60 40 60 West Palm Beach 75 88 75 89 / 40 50 30 50 Boca Raton 76 88 76 89 / 40 50 40 50 Naples 74 92 75 94 / 50 60 50 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182819 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 927 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 921 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Spotty showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the Atlantic waters and the East Coast metro this morning as an upper-level shortwave drifts southward across the peninsula. Activity thus far has remained benign for the most part, with occasional lightning and 0.5-1 inch accumulations in some spots. Nevertheless, some areas along the East Coast could experience street ponding and flooding later today as repeated rounds of rain move across. Activity will continue through the day, but will start drifting further inland around noontime when easterly winds pick up in speed, with the foci for coverage shifting over interior and southwest FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today, the western Atlantic high will shift eastward, maintaining an easterly synoptic flow over our region. Concurrently, a mid- level shortwave will dip southeast into the area. This approaching shortwave, combined with an increased inland progression of the Gulf breeze, is expected to result in scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the easterly flow, morning and early afternoon convection will likely be concentrated near the east coast, while stronger and more widespread activity will occur in the mid to late afternoon over Southwest Florida (SWFL) and the interior. High temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and SWFL. A mid-level trough will traverse the region to conclude the weekend and start the workweek on Monday. This will bring increased moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the usual diurnal pattern. Bouts of convection may spawn off of the Atlantic waters and South Florida - primarily the east coast. This could lead to impressive rainfall accumulations during short periods of time, with ponding of roadways possibly being a concern across urban locations. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 By Tuesday, the trough axis will exit into the Atlantic waters, allowing the weather pattern to revert to a more diurnally-driven regime. Morning showers over the Atlantic will transition into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly over areas where steepened lapse rates juxtaposes pockets of enhanced low-level convergence. The surface high will linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary, originating from low pressure over Canada, enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be positioned between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will shift the flow to southerly to west- southwesterly across much of the area. This may prove to be a ripe environment for intermittent periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely timeframe for development being in the afternoon during peak heating. The warm airmass combined with this flow over the peninsula will lead to a significant warming trend throughout the week, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses by late week. This situation will need to be monitored closely, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and south, as changes could necessitate major revisions to the forecast. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled weather is expected for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VCTS along the East Coast this morning could result in brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions, especially for KTMB, KMIA and KFLL. This risk expands to all sites later today as much of the SHRA/TSRA coverage moves inland. Confidence of direct impacts remains limited at this time, but short-fuse TEMPOs could be issued as conditions deteriorate. Winds will remain out of the east at 15 kts, with chances of gusts up to 25 kts. SHRA over the Atlantic and immediate East Coast could remain a concern overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will gradually diminish in strength below Small Craft Advisory criteria through this morning. Seas will also continue to decrease to below 5 feet by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, especially in the evening and overnight periods, will remain possible over the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Breezy easterly winds will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. This risk will begin to decrease this upcoming week as the easterly flow diminishes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 76 88 78 / 60 50 60 50 West Kendall 87 74 89 74 / 70 50 60 50 Opa-Locka 87 76 89 76 / 60 50 60 40 Homestead 86 76 88 76 / 60 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 84 77 86 77 / 60 50 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 85 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 76 90 77 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 86 75 88 75 / 50 40 50 30 Boca Raton 87 76 88 76 / 60 40 50 40 Naples 93 74 92 75 / 70 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172- 173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182804 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 710 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today, the western Atlantic high will shift eastward, maintaining an easterly synoptic flow over our region. Concurrently, a mid- level shortwave will dip southeast into the area. This approaching shortwave, combined with an increased inland progression of the Gulf breeze, is expected to result in scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the easterly flow, morning and early afternoon convection will likely be concentrated near the east coast, while stronger and more widespread activity will occur in the mid to late afternoon over Southwest Florida (SWFL) and the interior. High temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and SWFL. A mid-level trough will traverse the region to conclude the weekend and start the workweek on Monday. This will bring increased moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the usual diurnal pattern. Bouts of convection may spawn off of the Atlantic waters and South Florida - primarily the east coast. This could lead to impressive rainfall accumulations during short periods of time, with ponding of roadways possibly being a concern across urban locations. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 By Tuesday, the trough axis will exit into the Atlantic waters, allowing the weather pattern to revert to a more diurnally-driven regime. Morning showers over the Atlantic will transition into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly over areas where steepened lapse rates juxtaposes pockets of enhanced low-level convergence. The surface high will linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary, originating from low pressure over Canada, enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be positioned between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will shift the flow to southerly to west- southwesterly across much of the area. This may prove to be a ripe environment for intermittent periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely timeframe for development being in the afternoon during peak heating. The warm airmass combined with this flow over the peninsula will lead to a significant warming trend throughout the week, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses by late week. This situation will need to be monitored closely, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and south, as changes could necessitate major revisions to the forecast. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled weather is expected for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 706 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VCTS along the East Coast this morning could result in brief bouts of sub-VFR conditions, especially for KTMB, KMIA and KFLL. This risk expands to all sites later today as much of the SHRA/TSRA coverage moves inland. Confidence of direct impacts remains limited at this time, but short-fuse TEMPOs could be issued as conditions deteriorate. Winds will remain out of the east at 15 kts, with chances of gusts up to 25 kts. SHRA over the Atlantic and immediate East Coast could remain a concern overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will gradually diminish in strength below Small Craft Advisory criteria through this morning. Seas will also continue to decrease to below 5 feet by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, especially in the evening and overnight periods, will remain possible over the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Breezy easterly winds will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. This risk will begin to decrease this upcoming week as the easterly flow diminishes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 77 88 78 / 60 50 60 50 West Kendall 87 73 89 74 / 60 50 60 50 Opa-Locka 88 76 90 76 / 60 50 60 40 Homestead 88 76 87 76 / 60 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 87 77 / 60 50 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 87 75 88 75 / 50 50 60 30 Boca Raton 87 76 88 76 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 74 92 75 / 60 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182772 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 209 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Today, the western Atlantic high will shift eastward, maintaining an easterly synoptic flow over our region. Concurrently, a mid- level shortwave will dip southeast into the area. This approaching shortwave, combined with an increased inland progression of the Gulf breeze, is expected to result in scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the easterly flow, morning and early afternoon convection will likely be concentrated near the east coast, while stronger and more widespread activity will occur in the mid to late afternoon over Southwest Florida (SWFL) and the interior. High temperatures will follow a typical easterly regime, ranging from the mid-80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid-90s over the interior and SWFL. A mid-level trough will traverse the region to conclude the weekend and start the workweek on Monday. This will bring increased moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the usual diurnal pattern. Bouts of convection may spawn off of the Atlantic waters and South Florida - primarily the east coast. This could lead to impressive rainfall accumulations during short periods of time, with ponding of roadways possibly being a concern across urban locations. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 By Tuesday, the trough axis will exit into the Atlantic waters, allowing the weather pattern to revert to a more diurnally-driven regime. Morning showers over the Atlantic will transition into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and early evening. A few strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through this period, particularly over areas where steepened lapse rates juxtaposes pockets of enhanced low-level convergence. The surface high will linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary, originating from low pressure over Canada, enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be positioned between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will shift the flow to southerly to west- southwesterly across much of the area. This may prove to be a ripe environment for intermittent periods of showers and thunderstorms, with the most likely timeframe for development being in the afternoon during peak heating. The warm airmass combined with this flow over the peninsula will lead to a significant warming trend throughout the week, potentially increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses by late week. This situation will need to be monitored closely, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and south, as changes could necessitate major revisions to the forecast. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled weather is expected for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, especially across the east coast locations. Some stronger storms may result in brief IFR ceilings and visbys. Easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Fresh to strong east-northeast winds will gradually diminish in strength below Small Craft Advisory criteria through this morning. Seas will also continue to decrease to below 5 feet by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, especially in the evening and overnight periods, will remain possible over the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Breezy easterly winds will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. This risk will begin to decrease this upcoming week as the easterly flow diminishes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 77 88 78 / 60 50 60 50 West Kendall 87 73 89 74 / 60 50 60 50 Opa-Locka 88 76 90 76 / 60 50 60 40 Homestead 88 76 87 76 / 60 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 87 77 / 60 50 60 50 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 40 Pembroke Pines 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 60 40 West Palm Beach 87 75 88 75 / 50 50 60 30 Boca Raton 87 76 88 76 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 74 92 75 / 60 50 60 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182761 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 104 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The latest short range models is showing that a low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters tonight into Sunday, as a mid to upper level through moves through South Florida. At the same time, the short range models are showing a possible coastal trough setting up over east coastal areas late tonight, due to the winds over the interior and west coast metro areas will become light and variable with winds of the Atlantic waters will remain around 20 knots from the east. There is also an increase of moisture to the region tonight, due to a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea into the Bahamas. This weather pattern will lead to development of showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters tonight which could work into the east coast metro areas especially over Broward and Miami- Dade counties. Therefore, POPs have been raised tonight into the scattered range. Rest of the South Florida should remain dry tonight. POPs have also been increased into the likely cat across South Florida on Sunday due to the mid to upper level trough moving through the region. The focus will be over the eastern areas in the morning hours before shifting into the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours, due to the easterly steering flow pushing the activity westward through the day hours. There could also be some heavy rainfall from any showers or thunderstorms that do develop tonight into Sunday due to the increase moisture and PWATs getting up to 1.7 to 2 inches by Sunday afternoon. There could be some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop tonight into Sunday. The High risk of rip currents continues for the east coast beaches of South Florida through Sunday evening along with the SCA conditions for the Atlantic waters. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned with this update. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg, weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability will be maximized). The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid- lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast, while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over Interior and SWFL. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A mid-level trough will move across the region to close out the weekend and kick off the work week with increasing moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the normal diurnally-driven pattern on Monday. By Tuesday, the trough axis exits into the Atlantic waters and the pattern begins to return to something more diurnally-driven with morning Atlantic showers transitioning into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and early evening. The surface high will continue to linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary emanating from low pressure over Canada enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be wedged between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will mean a transition to southerly to west-southwesterly flow across much of the area to close out the forecast period Saturday and Sunday. The warm airmass combined with flow over the peninsula will mean a considerable warming trend through the week which could lead to heat illness risk climbing by late week. This will need to be monitored, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and to the south, in case of changes which could create some major revisions to the forecast for these time periods. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled will continue to be the message for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period, especially across the east coast locations. Some stronger storms may result in brief IFR ceilings and visbys. Easterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight periods will remain possible the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 87 77 88 78 / 60 50 60 40 West Kendall 87 73 89 74 / 60 50 60 40 Opa-Locka 88 76 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 Homestead 88 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 50 Fort Lauderdale 86 77 87 78 / 60 50 60 40 N Ft Lauderdale 86 76 87 77 / 60 50 60 30 Pembroke Pines 89 77 90 77 / 60 50 60 30 West Palm Beach 87 75 88 75 / 50 50 60 30 Boca Raton 87 76 88 77 / 60 50 60 40 Naples 92 74 92 75 / 60 50 60 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-651- 670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182743 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Miami FL 833 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 816 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The latest short range models is showing that a low level ridge of high pressure will remain over the Western Atlantic waters tonight into Sunday, as a mid to upper level through moves through South Florida. At the same time, the short range models are showing a possible coastal trough setting up over east coastal areas late tonight, due to the winds over the interior and west coast metro areas will become light and variable with winds of the Atlantic waters will remain around 20 knots from the east. There is also an increase of moisture to the region tonight, due to a mid level disturbance moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea into the Bahamas. This weather pattern will lead to development of showers and thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters tonight which could work into the east coast metro areas especially over Broward and Miami- Dade counties. Therefore, POPs have been raised tonight into the scattered range. Rest of the South Florida should remain dry tonight. POPs have also been increased into the likely cat across South Florida on Sunday due to the mid to upper level trough moving through the region. The focus will be over the eastern areas in the morning hours before shifting into the interior and west coast metro areas in the afternoon hours, due to the easterly steering flow pushing the activity westward through the day hours. There could also be some heavy rainfall from any showers or thunderstorms that do develop tonight into Sunday due to the increase moisture and PWATs getting up to 1.7 to 2 inches by Sunday afternoon. There could be some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop tonight into Sunday. The High risk of rip currents continues for the east coast beaches of South Florida through Sunday evening along with the SCA conditions for the Atlantic waters. Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes are planned with this update. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main feature of influence in the near-term for our area will be seasonably strong sfc. high pressure currently positioned just off the coast of North Carolina. This high is supporting breezy easterly flow over the area this afternoon which will focus any afternoon thunderstorms over the gulf coast and/or the Gulf waters. It remains to be seen if a gulf breeze will even occur today given the strong synoptic gradient, however if it does materialize it would likely be the primary focus for any afternoon activity. Although low-lvl lapse rates remain steep and DCAPE values will be in excess of 1000 J/kg, weak flow aloft combined with dry mid-lvl air should generally limit convective intensity and coverage, with gusty winds being the main threat with any storms which do form. Easterly flow will persist overnight resulting in warmer overnight lows (mid to upper 70s) for the east coast compared to the interior and west coast (generally lower 70s). Additionally scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the east coast, but particularly over the Atlantic waters (where nocturnal instability will be maximized). The western Atlantic high will shift eastward on Sunday, but still maintain easterly synoptic flow over our region, while at the mid- lvls a shortwave will dip southeast into the area. The approaching shortwave, combined with a likely greater inland progression of the Gulf breeze should result in greater coverage of showers and storms relative to today. Given the easterly regime, morning/early afternoon activity would likely be more focused near the east coast, while the stronger and more widespread activity in the mid-late afternoon period would be focused over SWFL and the Interior. High temperatures will be typical of an easterly regime ranging from the mid 80s near the immediate east coast to the low to mid 90s over Interior and SWFL. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A mid-level trough will move across the region to close out the weekend and kick off the work week with increasing moisture and the potential for showers and thunderstorms beyond the normal diurnally-driven pattern on Monday. By Tuesday, the trough axis exits into the Atlantic waters and the pattern begins to return to something more diurnally-driven with morning Atlantic showers transitioning into inland and Gulf coast showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and early evening. The surface high will continue to linger around the region through midweek before the next frontal boundary emanating from low pressure over Canada enters the southeastern United States. The parent low will move southeastward over the Great Lakes by late in the week. South Florida will be wedged between the stalled frontal boundary near Interstate 10 and deeper tropical moisture in the western Caribbean. The retrogression of the surface high back into the Atlantic will mean a transition to southerly to west-southwesterly flow across much of the area to close out the forecast period Saturday and Sunday. The warm airmass combined with flow over the peninsula will mean a considerable warming trend through the week which could lead to heat illness risk climbing by late week. This will need to be monitored, along with the progress of the synoptic scale features both to the north and to the south, in case of changes which could create some major revisions to the forecast for these time periods. For now, hot and diurnally unsettled will continue to be the message for a good part of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 724 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Winds will remain easterly over all TAF sites tonight into Sunday. Speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots tonight increasing to 15 to 20 knots Sunday east coast TAF sites. KAPF taf site winds will be less than 10 knots tonight increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Sunday. VCSH tonight into Sunday morning, then VCTS Sunday Afternoon. VCSH KAPF taf site till 02Z then VCTS after 17Z Sunday. Could be a hunderstorm after 04Z for KMIA, KOPF, and KTMB but coverage is not enough at this time to put into these TAF sites. VFR for celing and vis but could fall down into IFR with showers and storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Fresh to strong E-NE winds will continue through tonight over the Atlantic waters before dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria by Sunday morning. Seas will peak at 5-7 ft this afternoon over the Gulf stream, and then gradually decrease to under 5 ft by Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the evening and overnight periods will remain possible the next few days. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Breezy easterly flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the east coast beaches through Sunday. The risk will begin to decrease early next week as easterly flow decreases. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 86 76 88 / 40 50 60 70 West Kendall 75 88 74 89 / 40 50 60 70 Opa-Locka 76 88 75 89 / 40 50 60 70 Homestead 77 87 76 88 / 50 50 70 70 Fort Lauderdale 76 85 77 86 / 40 50 60 70 N Ft Lauderdale 76 85 77 87 / 40 50 60 70 Pembroke Pines 77 89 77 91 / 40 50 60 70 West Palm Beach 75 86 74 88 / 40 50 50 60 Boca Raton 75 86 76 89 / 40 50 60 70 Naples 74 93 74 93 / 20 60 50 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
