|
Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tallahassee, FL (TAE) (Florida Panhandle) Selection: |
| #1182831 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 No changes were needed to be made to the forecast today. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon across the region. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon. PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to strong winds in a any stronger storms. Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten & Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear. Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe severe with strong downburst winds possible. Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid- level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area- wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across the area today. This will likely cause brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they go over an airport. All terminals are carrying VCTS through the evening until storms begin to dissipate across the area. There is some signal that IFR to LIFR CIGs look to develop at ABY and DHN during the early morning hours Monday. All other terminals look to remain VFR through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible again on Monday afternoon; however, coverage is not expected to be as high. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon. Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 89 71 92 / 20 40 10 20 Panama City 71 87 73 89 / 20 30 10 10 Dothan 67 88 70 90 / 20 30 10 20 Albany 67 89 70 91 / 30 30 20 20 Valdosta 68 91 70 92 / 30 40 20 20 Cross City 68 91 69 93 / 20 40 10 20 Apalachicola 73 85 74 86 / 20 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182817 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 924 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 No changes were needed to be made to the forecast today. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon across the region. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon. PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to strong winds in a any stronger storms. Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten & Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear. Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe severe with strong downburst winds possible. Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid- level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area- wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection is ongoing south of TLH into Apalachee Bay. After daybreak this should weaken but will set the stage for redevelopment along with development further west as a shortwave trough enters our western sections. A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for today into the evening hours. Flight conds will be a mixture of VFR and MVFR in and under convection while predominantly VFR outside of convection. Each TAF site continues with VCTS this afternoon with a decrease in coverage after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will continue from the southeast with lighter speeds though could be briefly stronger closer to storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon. Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 69 89 71 / 60 20 40 10 Panama City 85 71 87 73 / 50 20 30 10 Dothan 85 67 88 70 / 60 20 30 10 Albany 87 67 89 70 / 60 30 30 20 Valdosta 88 68 91 70 / 40 30 40 20 Cross City 89 68 91 69 / 40 20 40 10 Apalachicola 84 73 85 74 / 50 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 622 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon. PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to strong winds in a any stronger storms. Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten & Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear. Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe severe with strong downburst winds possible. Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid- level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area- wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection is ongoing south of TLH into Apalachee Bay. After daybreak this should weaken but will set the stage for redevelopment along with development further west as a shortwave trough enters our western sections. A decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for today into the evening hours. Flight conds will be a mixture of VFR and MVFR in and under convection while predominantly VFR outside of convection. Each TAF site continues with VCTS this afternoon with a decrease in coverage after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Winds will continue from the southeast with lighter speeds though could be briefly stronger closer to storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon. Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 69 89 71 / 60 20 40 10 Panama City 85 71 87 73 / 50 20 30 10 Dothan 85 67 88 70 / 60 20 30 10 Albany 87 67 89 70 / 60 30 30 20 Valdosta 88 68 91 70 / 40 30 40 20 Cross City 89 68 91 69 / 40 20 40 10 Apalachicola 84 73 85 74 / 50 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182782 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 324 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon. PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to strong winds in a any stronger storms. Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten & Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear. Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe severe with strong downburst winds possible. Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid- level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area- wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR to MVFR will prevail overnight with generally VFR during the Sunday outside of convection. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late morning into the afternoon hours across a majority of the area and have VCTS at all sites beginning at 18Z through 01Z. Winds will be southeasterly during the day becoming variable to calm after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon. Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 69 89 71 / 60 20 40 10 Panama City 85 71 87 73 / 50 20 30 10 Dothan 85 67 88 70 / 60 20 30 10 Albany 87 67 89 70 / 60 30 30 20 Valdosta 88 68 91 70 / 40 30 40 20 Cross City 89 68 91 69 / 40 20 40 10 Apalachicola 84 73 85 74 / 50 20 20 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182769 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:51 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 134 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection has mostly diminished this evening. The focus for redevelopment early Sunday morning will be across coastal sections of Apalachee Bay and offshore where several HRRR runs have indicated that a band of storms could develop. Elsewhere, only an isolated shower or storm is expected for the remainder of tonight with activity picking up again during the day on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker mid and upper level shortwave trough looks to pass through the deep south on Sunday, which will provide the main focus for shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Overall the highest rain chances are around 50-70% across the Tri-state area with deep tropical moisture remaining in place. Thunderstorm development looks to be a more traditional June summer convective day, with storm initiation expected later in the afternoon and evening as the day heats up. PWATs will generally be in the 1.6-1.8 inch range, which is enough to produce extremely efficient rainfall rates across the region. Given these values, there will be a threat for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that become quasi- stationary over the same areas for extended periods of time. Along with the threat for localized flash flooding, a few storms could produce strong gusty winds with more vigorous downbursts that develop. This will partially be aided by DCAPE values in the 800- 1000 J/Kg range tomorrow. Thunderstorms should quickly diminish within 1-2 hours of sunset Sunday evening. Look for low temperatures in the morning look to generally fall into the upper 60s areawide. High temperatures look to climb into the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The broad upper trough that will move across the Southeast States on Sunday will start to exit off to the east on Sunday night. Weak upper ridging will build in from the west on Monday and Monday night. Our 500 mb flow will transition from cyclonic to anti- cyclonic, and weak surface high pressure will develop and drop anchor over the northeast Gulf. Against this backdrop, modest mid- level drying will reduce convective coverage on Monday, compared with Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A drier pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will prevail. The upper pattern will amplify, with a strong upper high developing over the Southern U.S. Rockies and Southern High Plains, resulting in downstream NW flow aloft across the Tri-State area. Meanwhile, a bubble of weak surface high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf into Thursday. Surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s, except low 70s at the coast. The drier mid-level air mass will amount to Precipitable Water (PW) values bouncing around in the marginal 1.4 to 1.6 inch range. From late Thursday through Saturday, the northwest flow aloft will try to push a cold front into the Southeast States. It looks like the tail end of the front could brush by the forecast area. The forecast acknowledges this with a modest increase to scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Ensemble means only increase PW values a little in advance of the front, so scattered coverage should do it for now. After the front brushes by, a drier air mass should arrive. Surface dewpoints should more squarely fall into the 60s, with 50s possible over AL/GA. Though ensemble plumes show a large range of possible PW values next weekend, the ensemble mean dries into the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range. This would lead to convective shutdown next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR to MVFR will prevail overnight with generally VFR during the Sunday outside of convection. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late morning into the afternoon hours across a majority of the area and have VCTS at all sites beginning at 18Z through 01Z. Winds will be southeasterly during the day becoming variable to calm after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Earlier today, Buoy 42036 observed 7-foot wave heights with a southeasterly wave direction. The buoy is down to observing 5-foot wave heights, but those higher waves will take into this evening to traverse the northeast Gulf waters. In general, winds and seas will be on a decreasing trend from now through Sunday afternoon, but there will take until Monday for the churned-up Gulf waters to fully respond to the improving weather. From CWF synopsis...Through Sunday morning, strong surface high pressure east of the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh southeast breezes. By Sunday afternoon, a small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf and persist through Thursday morning, supporting only light and gentle breezes. The small high pressure center will move south of the waters on Thursday, and a weak cold front will enter northern Mississippi and Alabama. So look for a freshening westerly breeze on Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dispersions look to lower across the region the next couple of days, with fair to good afternoon values forecast. This is partially due to slightly lower mixing heights expected both Sunday and Monday. Transport winds look to remain predominantly southerly to southeasterly becoming southwesterly by Monday evening. Overall there are no fire weather concerns the next couple of days; however, there is a 60-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region on Sunday. These chances look to lower on Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging settles into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Looking ahead to Sunday, a more typical summerlike scattering of afternoon thunderstorms is expected, yielding large areas with no rain, dotted with pockets that get a quick few inches of rain. These small pockets of heavy rain will be vulnerable to short- duration runoff issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage areas. However, this kind of rainfall pattern will not lead to river flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for heavy rainfall greatly diminish, so no new flooding is expected into next weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 91 70 93 / 20 40 10 10 Panama City 72 87 73 88 / 20 20 10 10 Dothan 68 88 69 91 / 20 20 10 10 Albany 67 89 69 91 / 30 30 10 10 Valdosta 67 90 69 92 / 30 40 10 10 Cross City 67 91 68 92 / 20 40 10 20 Apalachicola 73 85 74 86 / 20 20 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1182747 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 905 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 904 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Convection has mostly diminished this evening. The focus for redevelopment early Sunday morning will be across coastal sections of Apalachee Bay and offshore where several HRRR runs have indicated that a band of storms could develop. Elsewhere, only an isolated shower or storm is expected for the remainder of tonight with activity picking up again during the day on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A weaker mid and upper level shortwave trough looks to pass through the deep south on Sunday, which will provide the main focus for shower and thunderstorm development across the region. Overall the highest rain chances are around 50-70% across the Tri-state area with deep tropical moisture remaining in place. Thunderstorm development looks to be a more traditional June summer convective day, with storm initiation expected later in the afternoon and evening as the day heats up. PWATs will generally be in the 1.6-1.8 inch range, which is enough to produce extremely efficient rainfall rates across the region. Given these values, there will be a threat for localized flash flooding with thunderstorms that become quasi- stationary over the same areas for extended periods of time. Along with the threat for localized flash flooding, a few storms could produce strong gusty winds with more vigorous downbursts that develop. This will partially be aided by DCAPE values in the 800- 1000 J/Kg range tomorrow. Thunderstorms should quickly diminish within 1-2 hours of sunset Sunday evening. Look for low temperatures in the morning look to generally fall into the upper 60s areawide. High temperatures look to climb into the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday night through Monday night) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The broad upper trough that will move across the Southeast States on Sunday will start to exit off to the east on Sunday night. Weak upper ridging will build in from the west on Monday and Monday night. Our 500 mb flow will transition from cyclonic to anti- cyclonic, and weak surface high pressure will develop and drop anchor over the northeast Gulf. Against this backdrop, modest mid- level drying will reduce convective coverage on Monday, compared with Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A drier pattern with isolated afternoon thunderstorms will prevail. The upper pattern will amplify, with a strong upper high developing over the Southern U.S. Rockies and Southern High Plains, resulting in downstream NW flow aloft across the Tri-State area. Meanwhile, a bubble of weak surface high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf into Thursday. Surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s, except low 70s at the coast. The drier mid-level air mass will amount to Precipitable Water (PW) values bouncing around in the marginal 1.4 to 1.6 inch range. From late Thursday through Saturday, the northwest flow aloft will try to push a cold front into the Southeast States. It looks like the tail end of the front could brush by the forecast area. The forecast acknowledges this with a modest increase to scattered coverage of thunderstorms. Ensemble means only increase PW values a little in advance of the front, so scattered coverage should do it for now. After the front brushes by, a drier air mass should arrive. Surface dewpoints should more squarely fall into the 60s, with 50s possible over AL/GA. Though ensemble plumes show a large range of possible PW values next weekend, the ensemble mean dries into the 1.0 to 1.2 inch range. This would lead to convective shutdown next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through tomorrow afternoon excluding KDHN which may see MVFR visibilities and ceilings periodically from 09-12z. Around 18z tomorrow, scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout the region represented by VCTS this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Earlier today, Buoy 42036 observed 7-foot wave heights with a southeasterly wave direction. The buoy is down to observing 5-foot wave heights, but those higher waves will take into this evening to traverse the northeast Gulf waters. In general, winds and seas will be on a decreasing trend from now through Sunday afternoon, but there will take until Monday for the churned-up Gulf waters to fully respond to the improving weather. From CWF synopsis...Through Sunday morning, strong surface high pressure east of the Carolinas will support moderate to fresh southeast breezes. By Sunday afternoon, a small bubble of high pressure will develop over the northeast Gulf and persist through Thursday morning, supporting only light and gentle breezes. The small high pressure center will move south of the waters on Thursday, and a weak cold front will enter northern Mississippi and Alabama. So look for a freshening westerly breeze on Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dispersions look to lower across the region the next couple of days, with fair to good afternoon values forecast. This is partially due to slightly lower mixing heights expected both Sunday and Monday. Transport winds look to remain predominantly southerly to southeasterly becoming southwesterly by Monday evening. Overall there are no fire weather concerns the next couple of days; however, there is a 60-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region on Sunday. These chances look to lower on Monday and Tuesday as upper level ridging settles into the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 408 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Looking ahead to Sunday, a more typical summerlike scattering of afternoon thunderstorms is expected, yielding large areas with no rain, dotted with pockets that get a quick few inches of rain. These small pockets of heavy rain will be vulnerable to short- duration runoff issues, especially in urban areas and poor drainage areas. However, this kind of rainfall pattern will not lead to river flooding. Beyond Sunday, the chances for heavy rainfall greatly diminish, so no new flooding is expected into next weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 86 68 91 / 20 70 20 40 Panama City 70 86 72 87 / 20 40 20 20 Dothan 67 86 68 88 / 20 60 20 20 Albany 68 86 67 89 / 10 70 30 30 Valdosta 70 87 67 90 / 10 60 30 40 Cross City 68 89 67 91 / 10 60 20 40 Apalachicola 74 83 73 85 / 20 50 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Sunday for FLZ108-112-114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
