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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL (West Central Florida) Selection: |
| #1182851 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 248 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 As we go through the rest of our Sunday ridging is to our north and PWs have been increasing across the area. This will result in a more typical summertime seabreeze pattern. Looking at our seabreeze climatology we are currently in a regime 6 with a light S to SE flow. This regime typically brings the majority of shower activity pinned near the west coast with the highest PoPs south of I4. We are already seeing this with a developing CU field along the coast with coastal showers developing in Pasco and Charlotte Counties. This pattern seem to stay pretty consistent through Wednesday with late afternoon and evening shower activity focused mainly on the west coast of Florida. This will hopefully help to put a dent into some of the drought we are seeing across the area. Ridging will work its way to our south for the later half of the week in response to a cold front that will start to push through the Southeast. This will cause us to shift our focus to more inland areas when it comes to afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity. By Saturday the models are showing the front making it into Central Florida. It is a little late in the season for us to see a front so we will see if the models stay consistent with this solution through the week, but if it does verify it would cause us to see an increase in shower activity for the day. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at SRQ, PGD, FMY and RSW where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a chance of seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Ridging will remain to our north with some increase moisture across the area. This will keep winds out of an easterly direction for today and through mid week. This will also bring back our typically seabreeze convection over the land each afternoon and evening. These storm will drift into the Gulf each day mainly in the late evening and early overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Moisture has increase and winds have decreased compared to yesterday as ridging has shifted to our north. This will keep RHs above critical range with no fire weather concerns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 75 90 76 93 / 50 70 30 50 FMY 72 91 73 94 / 60 80 50 80 GIF 73 92 72 94 / 50 70 10 60 SRQ 72 90 74 95 / 70 70 40 60 BKV 69 91 68 95 / 40 60 20 50 SPG 77 90 79 93 / 60 70 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182820 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 948 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Increased moisture today along with an upper level trough pushing over the state will allow for better storm chances with the highest PoPs south of I-4. The extra rain and cloud cover will help to keep temperatures away from any records but highs will still be around 90 degrees. No changes need to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area. W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US. This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at FMY and RSW where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a chance of seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic through the early part of the week with generally light winds except during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards the coast in the evenings. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 92 76 / 50 60 40 20 FMY 92 72 93 74 / 60 60 60 40 GIF 92 72 93 72 / 50 50 50 10 SRQ 91 72 93 74 / 60 60 40 30 BKV 91 69 94 69 / 40 40 40 10 SPG 91 77 92 79 / 50 60 40 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182815 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 PM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 810 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area. W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US. This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at FMY and RSW where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a chance of seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic through the early part of the week with generally light winds except during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards the coast in the evenings. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 75 92 76 / 50 60 40 20 FMY 92 72 93 74 / 60 60 60 40 GIF 92 72 93 72 / 50 50 50 10 SRQ 91 72 93 74 / 60 60 40 30 BKV 91 69 94 69 / 40 40 40 10 SPG 91 77 92 79 / 50 60 40 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182775 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 246 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area. W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US. This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions and easterly winds all areas this morning into early afternoon hours. Aft 18Z the Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA to keep VCTS in the forecast thru 00Z as exact placement of activity remains uncertain. && .MARINE... High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic through the early part of the week with generally light winds except during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards the coast in the evenings. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 75 92 76 / 30 30 40 20 FMY 94 73 93 74 / 60 40 60 40 GIF 93 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 10 SRQ 94 74 93 74 / 40 40 40 30 BKV 93 68 94 69 / 30 20 40 10 SPG 92 78 92 79 / 40 40 40 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1182745 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 02.Jun.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 852 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Easterly flow will remain in place with high pressure ridging across the area at the surface. An upper trough passes over the area Sunday and will allow for some scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon with the highest chances south. Current forecast is on track with this and have lows falling into the upper 60s to mid 70s overnight. Have made a few minor adjustments to overnight rain chances over the coastal waters and for evening winds. Update is out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Easterly flow will continue through the overnight hours and into Sunday morning. Winds then shift onshore in the afternoon at the coastal terminals, with scattered storms possible mainly after 20Z. VFR is expected to prevail, but MVFR to IFR will be possible in storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 852 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A few showers may develop overnight, then higher chances as storms push offshore tomorrow afternoon/evening. Easterly flow will continue with high pressure in place to the east over the Atlantic. Current forecast is on track and have only made a few adjustments to the overnight PoPs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 74 91 75 92 / 10 40 20 30 FMY 72 93 73 94 / 10 60 40 50 GIF 69 92 72 94 / 0 50 10 40 SRQ 71 91 73 94 / 10 40 30 30 BKV 68 91 67 94 / 10 40 20 30 SPG 77 90 77 92 / 10 40 30 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
