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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
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Show Area Forecast Discussion - Key West, FL (Florida Keys) Selection: |
| #1181188 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 PM 21.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 302 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Synoptic composite analysis highlights an amplified shortwave trough with its axis east of the Florida Peninsula, with its counterpart upper-level ridge bridging over the Gulf of Mexico and now reaching our westernmost coastal waters. Meanwhile, at the surface, a weak area of low pressure east of the Bahamas continues to trek slowly eastward, with a weak area of high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states building in its wake. The interaction of the low and high pressure features has resulted in a weak surface pressure gradient over the Florida Keys, with generally light and variable flow. The light flow has promoted a broken cumulus cloud line in the vicinity of the Lower Keys, occasionally dishing out a few showers. Outside of a couple stronger cells in the vicinity of Card Sound in the Upper Keys, mid- level dry air aloft is likely stinting shower activity from growing very deep. Outside of these showers, skies are partly cloudy across the island communities, with temperatures generally in the upper 80s. For tonight, drier air will continue to filter into the Florida Keys aloft. Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be isolated in nature, associated with any potential weak nocturnal boundary collisions. Given the less organized nature of this convection with minimal upper-level support of ascent, did elect to nudge PoPs down to slight levels. The aforementioned ridge over the Gulf will continue to slide eastward, bridging over the Florida Peninsula by late in the week and into the weekend. Forecast soundings suggest formidable dry air aloft for these periods, and thus have retained very low PoPs and removed mention of thunder for Thursday through Monday. There are early indications in ensemble global numerical weather prediction guidance of yet another shortwave trough propagating across the Southeast and Mid- Alantic for the early to middle of next week. Should this pan out with a breakdown in ridging, this may provide the best measurable rain chances for the foreseeable future locally. In terms of temperatures, seasonably warm and muggy conditions will persist, with highs near 90F, lows in the lower 70s, and dew points generally in the lower to mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure in the vicinity of the Bahamas will continue to decay as it slides northeastward in the North Atlantic. As an expansive ridge of high pressure builds in its wake, light and variable breezes will gradually clock around to the east to southeast through Saturday, then to the southeast to south on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected at the island terminals. With that said, the environment is capable of supporting convective development. This along with day time heating may result in a round or two of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 87 80 88 81 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181165 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 21.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 After early morning shower and thunderstorm activity dotting portions of the Florida Keys and the adjacent nearshore and offshore coastal waters, activity has largely decayed over the past several hours. Upper-air analysis places the axis of the shortwave trough that promoted the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm event yesterday now to the east of the Florida Keys, with a sharp upper- level ridge slowly building in from the west. The 12z sounding, however, did sample a very moist profile up to around the 600 mb isobaric surface, modestly steep low- and mid- level lapse rates, and no defined cap on convection. For this afternoon, a combination of the aforementioned weak upper-level synoptic forcing for ascent and chaotic flow at the surface should limit coverage in activity, largely limited to the mesoscale. Inherited a forecast suggesting around 30% coverage for today, and that still seems on track. No changes proposed for the first forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. However, conditions are supportive of cumulus cloud lines along the island chain this afternoon, which may result in a few waterspouts in the adjacent coastal waters. Breezes will gradually shift to the east late this afternoon through Wednesday, as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 VFR conditions are expected at the island terminals. With that said, the environment is capable of supporting convective development. This along with day time heating may result in a round or two of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 89 80 90 / 30 20 30 10 Marathon 79 89 81 90 / 30 30 40 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181138 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:39 AM 21.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 430 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 After quite a chaotic day of active weather yesterday, the upper level trough responsible for the massive rainfall totals seen across the Keys yesterday has shifted for enough eastward that the Keys are now out of the the main areas of convection. Glancing at GOES water vapor imagery, the convection is best seen to our east across the Bahamas and in the western North Atlantic. CIMSS MIMIC TPW highlights a swath of drier air nosing its way south across the forecast area this morning, but showers and thunderstorms have still been able to develop along a Florida land breeze. The strongest convection is in the distant Straits of Florida. A few island communities have seen some measurable rainfall overnight, but nothing in comparison to the totals seen yesterday. Winds have finally shifted to the north, which has helped temperatures drop into the upper 70s and kept dew points in the lower 70s. Over the next few days, the aforementioned upper-level trough will tighten and elongate itself west of the East Coast. Despite being on the less favorable (western) side of this trough, forecast soundings are depicting decent low-level moisture and adequate CAPE to support showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Low- level flow will generally be light and, at times, variable. This nebulous flow could help spur various mesoscale processes/interactions, such as land breezes and cloud lines, that could bring measurable rainfall to the island chain. Have kept 30% rain chances (above most MOS guidance) for now, but will continue to keep an eye on how any patches of drier air influences convective trends. Once we are finally out of the influence of the upper low by Tuesday night into Wednesday, high pressure will build back in and easterly flow will resume. There is still a slight chance (10%) of showers and thunderstorms through the extended forecast, however, the atmospheric profile will become less favorable as a drier airmass infiltrates the region. Temperatures through the weekend are forecast to be a few degrees above normal, but dew points will remain in the lower to mid 70s, keeping us below Heat Advisory levels. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, today through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024 Early morning showers (with a couple embedded thunderstorms) in the vicinity of the island chain will weaken after sunrise. From then, VFR conditions are expected at both EYW and MTH today. Near surface winds will be light and variable, becoming southeast at around 5 knots by this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... The record breaking 7.08 inches of rainfall recorded yesterday, May 20th, has boosted May 2024 into the top 10 wettest Mays on record (currently sitting at 8th wettest May). This feat was achieved despite yesterday being the only day rainfall has been recorded thus far in May 2024. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 87 79 89 80 / 20 30 20 30 Marathon 87 79 89 81 / 20 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1181104 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 21.May.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1056 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Convection earlier in the day quickly wound down by the mid afternoon and by sunset nearly all the convection had cleared out from the Florida Keys coastal waters. Of note, Marathon International Airport shattered their daily precipitation record with just over 7 inches. Once the convective influences on winds died down, the winds clocked around from the west and northwest. Despite the wet and stormy day today, temperatures rebounded in the late afternoon and are have only fallen down into the lower 80s. Dew points are a little more reasonable with values in the lower to mid 70s as opposed to upper 70s to near 80. As mentioned previously, KBYX radar is convection free in our immediate forecast area. There is ongoing activity out across the Bahamas and moving away from our area. Looking at CIMSS analysis, there is still a spoke of vorticity that has yet to pivot through the area. Hi-res CAMs indicate that as this spoke pushes through overnight that new convection could fire, mainly in our western waters. However, looking at infrared satellite imagery, there is no evidence of any new convection firing yet along the west coast of Florida. That is not to say it still can`t happen but it calls into question how likely we are to see redevelopment overnight. Pros: there is a spoke of low to mid- level vorticity, i.e. source of lift, progged to swing through and there is still over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Cons: There is much drier air which has resulted in a lower precipitable water value from 12 hours ago and many of the boundaries has been either pushed out or washed out. Therefore, reluctant to change PoPs from low end chance (30 percent), but it remains to be seen if this is too generous. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 Thunderstorm coverage has all but dissipated and breezes have clocked around to the west and northwest. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop overnight but with less coverage expected. Tuesday through Wednesday, breezes will gradually shift to the east as high pressure in the western North Atlantic builds back in across the region. Gentle east to southeast breezes will resume Friday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail through the overnight and into Tuesday. Convection may redevelop overnight but stay to the west of the terminals. Light and variable winds will become northwest overnight and then return to light and variable after dawn Tuesday. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
