CFHC Talkback For News Story #3:
Newest Talkback: 07:25 PM 04-03 EDT

The Next Two Months
04:50 PM EDT - 14 March 2002 | Fifty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments
| Newest: 07:25 PM 04-03 EDT

The next two months at Flhurricane, we'll be slowly moving over to the new 2002 look, which isn't all that different from the current one. We are changing the way talkback will work which will allow us to manage them better, and add a bunch of things for that.

The automated weather bits will change little, but we hope to have everything running by hurricane season.

Right now, we are still using the old system, and feel free to comment.

This season, I think, will be very different from the last few, so we hope to be ready.

Thanks everyone!

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #56 (of 56 total)

Was Wondering (#1)
Posted by: Amrami Said Mubdullah
Posted On 10:08AM 15-Mar-2002 with id (VSNTYNQVQNRQV*)
I just found your site, and I must say it is quite randy. How come the Natl. Hurricane Center doesn't have any Islamic names for hurricanes?q

Islamic Storm Names (#2)
Posted by: Rich Byett
Posted On 05:57PM 15-Mar-2002 with id (QYTNQQWNQSSNQYV*)
The Natl Hurricane Centre uses names that occur in regions affected by the Hurricanes. As no Islamic countries are affected by Atlantic or Northeastern Pacific Hurricanes, no Islamic names are used.

I REALLY like what you guys are going to do with this website. (#3)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 03:57PM 16-Mar-2002 with id (QUXNRURNWRNRPQ*)
I also like the new look on the homepage. I agree with Mike C. when he said that things should be very different in the tropics this year than the last two. We shall see.

My Two Cents (#4)
Posted by: Vince Vizenzo Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posted On 08:19AM 17-Mar-2002 with id (VSNUPNWTNSS*)
I disagree. I think you guys are over zealot in your Hurricane predictions. This year will be like the last few. Not much in the Atlantic Region.

Welcome, Vince. Are you new are have you posted before? (#5)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 10:05AM 17-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNYQNQWX*)
Also, what is your reasoning for "not much in the Atlantic Region" this year? Looks active to me. Here's a satellite picture you can use to view to watch the ITCZ:
Look at all of the convection south of 10 north. This is likely because of the high water temperatures of off the COA. Given proper position and strength of Azores High (North w/ pressure of 1010-1015 mbs.) we could see strong hurricanes approach the U.S. this year. Despite a slightly different pattern, this year could be similar to 1996 in its nature. 1996 had a weak to moderate La Nina, but an easterly QBO. This year will be weak El Nino and WESTERLY QBO. Atlantic SLPA's could also be below average this year, thus promoting atmospheric instability. You could be right Vince, but I think it is questionable that the U.S. will go without ANY HURRICANES this year. Last U.S. hurricane making landfall: Hurricane Irene, 15th Oct. 1999. We'll see what this year brings, and I look forward to your posts this year.
Kevin A. Budd
Orlando, Florida

where to put stock (#6)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 06:39PM 17-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
for all the off-season climatological talk we've been doing, it still sort of gets me that we could have fourteen named storms and super la nina like in 2000 and only get two weak tropical storms... or six and el nino like in 1992 and get andrew. it really just comes down to what any particular storm does, not how the entire season goes. last year was another year where storms managed to creep out from under ridges and recurve into the atlantic, or steamroll westward through the caribbean and never budge north. all cut from the same mold it seems. now maybe el nino will poke it's opinion back in, break the pattern...
last year we didnt always have the east coast trough, you know. erin was coming along under the ridge, but met with shear, died, and redeveloped further north, out from under the westward drive below the ridge axis. probably saved the southeast from a good wallop in early september. it's the little quirky events that make all the difference, not whether qbo is from the east or the ssts off africa are averaging warm.
but of course i'll follow dr. gray anyway. don't know where they storms will go, but it is nice that he can figure with some accuracy how many we'll need to dodge.

2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#7)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:03PM 17-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQWV*)
12 more hurricanes to go ! I believe!!

There is more red in Atlantic than East Pacific! (#8)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:31AM 18-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTQ*)
(Click here)

Posted by:
Posted On 05:01PM 18-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQXQ*)
That is the caption on AOL's Home Page today(3/18/02).When you redirect to that site I think it is just a copy of Bill Grey's Dec. Forcast discussion. Hypen it early I guess...

Response to post #6. (#10)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 07:50PM 18-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNQPR*)
Here's an example of one of last year's storms that nevered touched U.S. soil because of the conditions in the Atlantic. The storm was Erin, as you mentioned. Well, it got sheered out, and perhaps this was because at the time the Azores High was creating too much sheer for Erin to survive. So, it reformed to the north and went fishing because of that. It could have also gotten sheered out the first time around because of the Easterly QBO winds last year. With the Azores High in the proper strength and postion this year (forecasted to be favorable by Gray, but still an unknown effect on 2002 storms as far as I'm concerned), the westerly QBO winds (this will allow the mid-level and low-level circulations to align properly thus decreasing chances of dissipation quite significantly.) Okay, so suppose the 2001 was a year where the Azores High was not causing subsidence and sheer over the Atlantic and it was a westerly QBO year. Well, as you mentioned, Erin wouldn't have dissipated at first and probably would have had a better chance to stay at a low latitude. The U.S. would have probably gotten a good beating had the stuff with Erin not happened. Okay, so the chances of us having more deep tropics storms this year looks pretty good (probably won't be as much of a baroclinic year as last year was), so with the westerly QBO and a possibly more favorable Azores High, what do you think the storms will do this year? Looks like a big East Coast year to me. Once again, the Azores/Bermuda High are the million dollar question this year as far as storm tracks/intensity go.

Predictions 2002 (#11)
Posted by: Vince Vinzenzo Location: Palm Springs, Florida
Posted On 09:54AM 19-Mar-2002 with id (VSNTYNQVRNRUP*)
Good comments by everyone, indeed. I look foward to debate and discourse throughout the upcoming Hurricane season. I recently retired from the US Navy where I spent 34 years. I'm a retired Vice-Admiral. I spent most of my time in the metorological division of the 6th Fleet. However, I'm still sticking to my guns on this years prediction. I am also starting my own Hurricane Tracking Web site. I just moved here from Rota, Spain. So it may be awhile before it's up and running efficiently.

Welcome Aboard Vince! (#12)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 12:43PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
But can't say I agree with your thoughts, although if this season is like the last few years there will be an above average number of named storms, which confuses me a little in your post. Now in terms of threatening cyclones, yes there have been few during the past few years, at least for the CONUS. I expect an above average number of storms this season with some threats to the CONUS and islands of the Caribbean, and lean to Dr. Gray' ideas for an earlier start to the season. Dr. Gray will probably lower his storm predictions in April to 11 or 12, then raise them again in June (depending, of course, on the strength of the anticipated El Nino). BTW, has the Navy model been upgraded lately? Just curious since I figure you'd be in the know. Still 3 months to go! Cheers!!

New warning timings from NHC (#13)
Posted by: Jim M Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 12:54PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (QRNSTNRTVNSU*)
Don't know if anyone has seen this article at the Orlando Sentinel:

I saw this and went, "Oh no!" Expanding Hurricane warnings out to five days in advance could be a PR nightmare considering the error in these forecasts. Anyone else share the opinion that a five day warning is ill-advised becuase we can not forecast these storms well enough for a five day warning?

Nice website ! (#14)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 02:56PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
(Click here)

Excuse me (#15)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 03:01PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
(click here)

Try again (#16)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 03:05PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
(Click here) http//

one more time (#17)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 03:13PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
(click here)

response to kevin post #10, and so forth (#18)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 07:18PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
if i recall collectly it was a more transient feature than qbo that got erin.. the tutt or an upper low or something. qbo doesnt play much of a direct role in hurricane shearing, its more of a climatological thing that affects the relative overall shear rather than any case and point. at least thats the way i understand it. but yeah, there was a prevalence of fast moving systems that outran their convection, and mid latitude systems that got ripped up at various stages in their existences. the strength of the azores high was also a key factor, as it contributed to the relative strength of the shear by ramming waves and lows along at breakneck speeds. recall that there weren't many intense storms this year at low latitude. dont think there were any below 20N.
by the way jim, agree with the five day warning skepticism. though.. i wouldnt be against a 'dont take me seriously' sort of advisory just to give everybody a heads up. as if media hype doesnt do that already.
welcome radm vince. yes, we are zealous. yes, we are trying. if you are a voice of moderation, pleased to have you. even if you are a retired squid. (6th fleet is mediterranean, right?)moderation is a rare thing on this site when its august and something big is threatening.

The Five Day Outlook (#19)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 09:58PM 19-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNQXY*)
Actually, NHC has been testing this model for a couple of years - note also that the article said 2003, i.e., not yet for this season. A lot of private industry forecasters already push the envelope to 5 days (and beyond) and some are rather accurate at it. Things have been mighty quiet lately in the southpac. Welcome aboard Vince! This is one of the top hurricane chat sites on the net - novice to pro, but all are welcome. Most of these folks really know there stuff and many provide excellent new links to great data sources. Mike & John certainly provide all of us with an excellent forum for discussion.

Does Anyone Have.... (#20)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 01:12PM 25-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
the date that NOAA releases its 2002 tropical forecast? Has Gray made any press announcements that adjusted his forecast numbers. Rumor has it that he'll lower do these people know? Reason I'm asking is to find out why.....if his forecast is lowered. Do we see a stronger than anticipated El Nino or weaker. SSTs off the western coast of S. America are rising and are beginning to look like March '97 temps. But Atlantic temps are high also. If Atlantic SST anomalies are high, can they offset effects of warmer EPAC temps, particularly if El Nino is marginal

Steve H. (#21)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg
Posted On 11:00PM 25-Mar-2002 with id (VVNQYNWXNRX*)
Did some searching and found when forecast predictions will be issued.
8/02 Couldn't find any press releases, I'am thinking rumors. As far as tropical Atlantic/ El Nino are concerned, I'am clueless to what is going to happen. All pending on the strength of El Nino. Still a couple of months to watch SST trends. Hope predictions above help.

My ENSO Forecast And Sst Update! (#22)
Posted by:
TropicalWxWatcher Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Posted On 11:29PM 25-Mar-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWPNQXV*)
First, I will begin my ENSO update with the latest model forecasts. About half of the Climate Prediction Center models are forecasting further development of El Nino. They are forecasting a moderate El Nino to develop. The other have are predicting just slightly more development of El Nino over the next few months. In fact, a few of the models are not even forecasting much more development of El Nino for the remainder of the year! Here are a few model forecast links:

So far, there are no signs of El Nino besides the fact that there are slightly above average sst anomolies in the EPAC. Most are still only in the one to two degress above normal range. In fact, we are still seeing some minor fluctuations in the EPAC and conditions are still basically neutral.

I am predicting a very weak El Nino episode. I also believe that the minor fluctations that we are still seeing, will begin to diminish in one to two months. That is when we will begin to see the true signs of a WEAK El Nino beginning to take shape. However, we may not begin to see a major chane in the weather pattern until 3-5 months. Since I am forecasting only a weak El Nino, we may not even see any major or dramatic changes in the current pattern. In addition, we will still see at least some neutral conditions.

The eastern Pacific should see an above average season sue to the warm sst anomolies as well as the WPAC. Another reason why we could see an above average season in these two regions, is due to the Madden Julian Oscillation.

Typically, during an El Nino phase, we see a lot of shear in the Atlantic Basin. However, we usually do not see westerly winds during El Nino. This year, the QBO winds are forecasted to be westerly. So we have unfavorable shear due to EL Nino but then we have favorable WBO winds blowing from the west. So I am forecasting neutral conditions in the Atlantic (Shear wise)One of the most important areas to look for shear levels is in the eastern Caribbean. This is where the TUTT is located. I believe the TUTT will be slightly stronger this year than last year but still not as strong as it was during the 2000 season. In addition, we still have warmer than average ssts located off the coast of Africa. Sure there has been a recent cool down BUT, we still have to wait for any possible trends. Another are that has caught some attention, is the Gulf of Mexico. The sea surface temperatures in the Gulf were well below average a month ago. But with Summer approaching, those waters are now beginning to warm up. By June, we could see above normal sea surface temperatures all across the GOM.

Another thing that I have noticed so far this offseason, is the low number of troughs that have been exiting the east coast. Typically during El Nino years, we see less of a chance of a tropical system striking the east coast. However, in my opinion there is a better chance of an east coast landfall this year. Take a look at this:

On this map, you see low than average pressure just off the east coast but,you can also see abover average pressure readings in the central Atlantic. Remember that the Bermuda high strengthens as time goes by. So by June, we could have high pressure building from the east Atlantic all the way to the western Atlantic with a trough situated OVER the east coast. This would increases the chances of an east coast landfall.

My conclusion is that we will see a very WEAK El Nino this season. The flucuations in the EPAC will not begin to diminish until May or June. It will take at least a little while longer for El Nino to have any impact on the overall pattern since I am forecasting such a weak episode. So far, I believe that El Nino will be too weak to play a major role on the number of Atlantic storms we will see this upcoming season. In addition, there are many other smaller factors that we need to also monitor that are still pointing to an above average season. One for example, is the above average ssts off the COA. I am also forecasting this El Nino episode to be rather short-lived. In fact, after doing some research on past ENSO events, I believe that neutral conditions will return by May of 2003! This would be just in time for the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. We could see some signs of a La Nina by September of 2003.

The Tropical Weather Watchers 2002 Atlantic hurricane season forecast will be released May 15th, when my new site opens.

Hi Everyone! (#23)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 10:04AM 26-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPQNQVX*)
Hello! Hope everyone had a quiet and peaceful first part of the year. Yesterday we got our first *spring* t-storms, although it wasn't very heavy or widespread, it was weird because I haven't heard thunder in so long, LOL!

Welcome to all the new posters! I look forward to discussing all of the pressure readings, NHC discussions, etc with everyone this year! :-)


Hey Tropical... (#24)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metaire, LA
Posted On 11:27AM 26-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)
It's always good to see someone from my neck of the woods on here. That was a great analysis, and it's hard to argue with any of it. The eastpac SST charts definitely are trending upwads (with occasional spikes) though.

What does all this mean for this year's season? It's still too early for me to come out with a morning line. Like all the other prognosticators on this site, I think 2002 will be different from the last couple of seasons, but I'm not yet convinced how. Last year I predicted Flordia as a bullseye but the Gulf of Mexico as a hotbed of activity. I think I called for 6 storms in GoM with 5 US Landfalls. We ended up somewhere close to that (with the dual landfall of Allison and the couple of unnamed systems), but I didn't really verify. I do think we'll get a scare or two in the Central Gulf coast because we're overdue - especially in south LA.


Hey Colleen (#25)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 12:24PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
How are you

signal beacons (#26)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 04:16PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
so i only started posting here in the summer of 2000, but why not go further back. i started really watching the dr. gray predictions closely probably in 1995 (at the ripe old age of 14), when we were having that incredible year. since then there have been lots of above normal predictions, every spring i watch as another monster season is forecast.. and fall into the same trap every time, it seems. yes, this year will probably be above average, if only slightly. does that equate to increased danger? it seems not. rather than seeing another massive 14-storm prediction, i'd much rather see climate analog years weather patterns over the eastern u.s. and northwest atlantic, and where the height anomalies tend to be. cause we all know by now, if theres a big upper trough in the northwest atlantic all august and september, 15 named storms wont mean jack.

Steve H. (#27)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 04:42PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPQNQVW*)
We are doing well, thanks! Sounds as if you and yours are doing well also...we are getting ready to move (not out of town, just out of this house) soon, so if you don't see me when you think I should be here, that's why. Watch. I'll get all set up in the new house, and this will be the year we get hit by every freaking storm that comes even near us. ;-)

Be careful what you wish just might get it.

Post #27. (#28)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 07:18PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXSNQRP*)
I agree 100%, Colleen. I think we should be carefull what we wish for this year. Strange that you're moving into a new I do sorta get a feeling that this will be the year we get a modest hurricane instead of a wimpy ts...but I try to keep to gut feelings out of it as much as I can.

Disagree (#29)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 11:31PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNRY*)
I believe that continued above normal cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin will lead ultimately to landfall of a dangerous storm. Statistically it's impossible to continue in this pattern without getting hit by one sooner or later. Don't know when or where, but it's gonna come whether a trough is on the east coast or a bubble of high pressure. Andrew was nearly a fish until the trough passed it by and high pressure built in shunting it to the WSW from a position north of PR. It's all in the timing. Talk of TUTTs and Azores/Bermuda highs is interesting and can explain why things occur, but when it comes right down to it each storm setup is unique since so many variables come into play that make paths of these storms different. Time is on the side of a big one coming soon (relatively speaking). On another note, I am getting a bit concerned about the El Nino influence this season. I as stated in a post a last week, the warming of the Pacific waters along the west coast of S. America looked strikingly familiar to the 1997 snapshot of March 15. Dr. Dewpoint posted the same thing today. But he pointed out that the N. Pacific waters are cooler this year than in '97. Will that keep a strong EL Nino influence in check this summer? Don't know...have to watch it's progress. If it's a weak El Nino, we could see a season along the lines of 1995/96, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Two more months to go! Cheers!!

Re: The El Nino This year and the Pacific (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 09:27AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPY*)
I was just wondering...hasn't it been said that when the Pacific season is more active than the Atlantic that the season would be slower than normal? If that is correct, than based on the information were seeing (warmer Atlantic basin temps than in the Pacific) than we will see a busy season.

If I'm wrong, feel free to let me know, but I was sure that somewhere I read that.


East Pacific hurricane seasons on record! (near California) (#31)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:44AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUR*)
Record here!

1952- 3 hurricanes
1962- 2 hurricanes
1965- 1 hurricane

Decrease in hurricanes expected !

Did you know? (#32)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:46AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUR*)
There were more hurricanes in Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea than East Pacific (Near California) last year!!

Response to posts 30 and 31. (#33)
Posted by:
Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 04:47PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXSNQYV*)
1.Many times it is true that when the Pacific is very active, the Atlantic is quiet and vice-versa. An example:1995. Pacific had 9 storms (I think) and the Atlantic had 19. Strong La Nina that year inhibited much Pacific development. Last year, OVERALL conditions in the Atlantic in the Pacific were about the same, so we saw Pacific and Atlantic seasons that were very similar, by the numbers anyway. This year, the Pacific should be slightly more active than the Atlantic.
2.Well, John, I really don't know what you're trying to poke at. It seems to me that you are just picking out years and showing how those numbers in the first year you picked decreased compared with other years you picked. I think this is an invalid way to look at the increase in Atlantic tc activity. One thing that is positive that I wanted to point out though, is that the years you showed were in the 50's and this was a time when the Atlantic was very active.

Anyway, no matter how much of an activity spike the Atlantic takes over the next 10-25 years, once we get a U.S. major hurricane finally (which should be in a couple of years, if not this year), things are gonna go to hell real fast (in terms of U.S. majors making landfall). My 2 cents. Commments welcome!
Kevin A. Budd
Orlando, Florida

Atlantic hurricane seasons on record ! (#34)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 08:29PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
1912- Titanic
1914- 0 hurricanes
1925- 1 hurricane
1982- 2 hurricanes
1994- 3 hurricanes
1995- a very busy season
1996- a very busy season
1997- 3 hurricanes again because El nino reduced number of hurricanes!
1998 to 2001 very busy seasons again!

Ripley's Believe It Or Not! (#35)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 08:33PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
Atlantic basin: We will see 4 hurricanes or more each year.

Dr. Gray talked about Atlantic basin (#36)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 10:45PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
"We believe we've entered a new era for storm activity." Gray said.

2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#37)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:16AM 28-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUR*)
FORT COLLINS, Colo., Dec.7 Long-range forcaster William Gray of Colorado State University said Friday that next year's hurricane season will see more hurricanes than average, including four major storms.
(Click here)

Just for Grinz (#38)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 12:37PM 28-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
See that area of convection and twisting NNE of Puerto Rico. GGEM has a weak surface low develop there. Sign of things to come

What's up Steve H? (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 08:39PM 28-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNWY*)
Unfortunately, it wasn't me who won on Jeopardy, nor was it me who won the $48MM Powerball jackpot in Kenner last night. So I doubt I'll be flying my Cesna all over the SE hoping to catch some tropical action this year. But yeah, it is good to see everyone creeping back in (what's up Colleen?). Maybe 'always positive' Shawn from Houston and some of the guys from the MS Coast will be back by June.


Got a note from internet few years ago. lol (#40)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 05:52PM 30-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*)
"The Atlantic Ocean looks slightly more conducive to hurricane formation as sea surface temperatures have risen and, we believe, will continue to rise," he said.

Conducive mean better conditons for hurricane.

Some forecasts to watch for... (#41)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 03:14AM 31-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNV*)
Dr. Gray's updated forecast comes out this Friday (4/5/02). The NHC's forecast will be released on 5/23 during Hurricane Awareness Week 2002.


Bull (#42)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:13PM 31-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPQ*)
Harry Bull was not afraid of ghosts.

"The Most Haunted House in England" page 49.

Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:34PM 31-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPQ*)
Death Certificate-

I am in South Florida (#44)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:39PM 31-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPQ*)
South Florida: I have 16 coconut palm trees in my property!

graycast (#45)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 12:07AM 01-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)
friday, april 5th. bet he'll either hack off a tropical storm or cut a few named storm days/net cyclone activity points.
two more months outside of hurricane season, but probably four months until things start happening. still forever and a day away.

2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#46)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:32AM 01-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQUR*)
There will be 5 hurricanes in Atlantic basin from June 1 to August 31. I guess.

There is no El nino this month. (April 2, 2002) (#47)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:18PM 01-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNQWT*)
(Click here)

second opinion (#48)
Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL
Posted On 11:13PM 02-Apr-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*)

then again...

Posted by: ROB H Location: CLEARWATER
Posted On 09:46AM 03-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQPUNQWWNQWP*)
sfl-forecast0403.story-coll=sfla-home-headlines (2)

Posted by: ROB H Location: CLEARWATER
Posted On 10:11AM 03-Apr-2002 with id (VTNQPUNQWWNQWP*)

Thanks Rob!! (#51)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 10:56AM 03-Apr-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
Good Post! And I have to Concur with both guys in the Article; the ingredients for a season like '95/'96 are there, but how strong will El Nino be. Current forecasts are for weak El Nino, BUT that could change rapidly as we saw in '97. Though there was no El Nino officially in place this past winter, the Sub Tropical jet kept Pacific air through the South up into the NE US all winter. IF it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, is it El Nino

Storm warnings up on MS Gulf Coast (#52)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 12:04PM 03-Apr-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNRV*)
Hello everyone, been a long time since I've posted on this fine web site... But now I have something to post as the first storm of the season is expected to hit the MS coast this weekend...Storm warnings are up from Biloxi MS, to New Orleans LA. "Black Spring Break" is forecasted to hit the MS coast Friday afternoon and linger around for at least two more days... Two years ago BSB was a Category 4 storm with significant damage to the coast area in terms of emotion distress, unbelievable traffic congestion and significant revenue losses due to business closings. Biloxi was totally unprepared for the number of spring breakers that showed up in 2000. Last year the storm was only a weak Category 2 as the police crackdown quite hard on the unsuspecting spring breakers. Actually I'm rather surprised that they are going to return to Biloxi after what happened last year (some are planning to celebrate spring break in New Orleans) .. No telling what this year will bring.... Regardless, I will have a bird's eye view for what ever happens as I live right in the middle of ground zero, on the beach on Hwy 90! My wife and most of my neighbors are planning to evacuate the area for the weekend, however, I am looking forward to riding out the first storm of the season... at least I don't have to put up any plywood on my windows.... hehe (some interesting things will no doubt happen on the beach in front of my house this weekend)

On a more serious note, looking forward to a very interesting hurricane season, and all the great weather forecasts, information and outstanding comments which will be posted throughout the season on this web page....

Experts expect stormy hurricane season (#53)
Posted by:
Frank P Location: Biloxi, MS
Posted On 03:34PM 03-Apr-2002 with id (QRNQSNRTXNRV*)
See link below for story details

El Nino (#54)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg
Posted On 05:20PM 03-Apr-2002 with id (VVNQYNWVNQQQ*)
Well my confidence is growing that El Nino will be weak. So plan on more storms this hurricane season. Watch out Frank P storm looks intense!!!

Posts #53 and 54 (#55)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:00PM 03-Apr-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNSY*)
Yes, I agree with Joe and Frank P both.

Hey Frank P.... (#56)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 07:25PM 03-Apr-2002 with id (VSNQTNQTYNSY*)
That was hillarious. BSB got major press in N.O. last year. They said the cops were ruthless and the traffic was insane. We were supposed to be the playaz this year, but because Jazzland is mired in Chapter 11, the expected concerts were all cancelled. That should lead more sun seekers your way.

Batton down those hatches and take down those rebel flags :)


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