CFHC Talkback For News Story #102:
Newest Talkback: 07:41 PM 09-18 EDT

Gordon Making Landfall
07:51 PM EDT - 17 September 2000

Gordon making landfall around Cedar Key, Florida. Looks like the NHC was pretty close on this track.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #3 - #23 (of 23 total)

Hey lene! (#3)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 08:38PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNUX*)

Robert, or anyone,
Is there expected to be any shear around the northern anitlles, and Puerto Rico?
The stuff that's killed the others.


Good Question (#4)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:43PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNQYY*)

Im not sure with the remnents of td 12 but it sure does look to be getting better organized,and i dont belive there is shear it has passed the shear line wich isnt all that strong anymore. The wave in the east atlantic ill have to say no for now its real far out and it has a long way to go before it would hit shear if there is any at all this one might become something pretty big down the road but its way way to far out to even to begin woring about that one, i would just keep an eye to see if td 12 reforms

Yaa (#5)
Posted by:
Darcy Location: Ontario, Canada
Posted On 08:52PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNTXNQRSNUX*)

You right about the African one Rob.
It is far away, but that's where Alberto developed.
I wonder if it could take Al's track?

It mite (#6)
Posted by: Robert
Posted On 08:55PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QYYNRRWNQWSNQYY*)

Some Global models forcast the bermuda high to weaken down the road wich would cause a NW turn and make a fish storm, and the remnents of td 12 are still in a some what of a shearing enviroment so development any time soon is un likely with that system

just a cold rainy night (#7)
Posted by: Frank Location: Tallahassee
Posted On 09:00PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNSW*)

they didnt cancel school tommorow. i can see why, but i mean.. dammit. yeah, both of those waves look good again. the 1800z map from the nhc depicts them as having surface lows, and both look ok in terms of shear. the one in the caribbean i think will be better off with upper ridging to the north, if that verifies.. AND if it doesnt run over land, in the long run. immediately the cape verde wave seems better off, since it is free of shear for the time being. also ridging here, supposedly building west some, but theres a trough pretty close by that will probably snatch any development and toss it well out to sea. naw, that caribbean puffball is my next best hope for a holiday. no thanks to gordon.. still, the eerie sky today wasnt half bad.
y'all take it easy.

Comment on C.V. Disturbance (#8)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 09:16PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUUNQRP*)

If the C.V. disturbance does develop in the mid-Atlantic, it is most unlikely that it will affect the U.S. As for it affecting the Caribbean, that depends on how far west it develops, if at all. The remnants of 12 are nothing to write home about for now.

Other Areas (#9)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 10:19PM 17-Sep-2000 with id (VTNQRNQPUNQVV*)

there are a couple of other areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic that are worth watching. In the near term, there is the wave in the Eastern Caribbean that bears watching as it htrows Thunderstorms, showers and wind in the Islands. This could develop, but may be heading for shear coming from the SW caribbean in the next few days. An area of showers and T'storms is flaring up in east of the windward mislands, as well as an area in the Central atlantic near 11N. Develop of these areas if at all will be slow. The area looking quite good for development is obviously the circulation south of the Cape verde Islands. This could become a depression in the next 24 -36 hours, and it's way too early to tell where this area might end up. It's quite far south and should avoid any troughs from the northwest for the next 5-6 days. The trough associated with departing TS Florence will wash out as she moves northward towards Newfoundland. Lots to watch. The east coast needs to watch the progress of Gordon as he pulls to the NNE

scott (#10)
Posted by: troy
Posted On 12:01AM 18-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNRQU*)

referring to a former post of yours, I was not disappointed. my feelings at the time were that you shouldnt be to harsh on the nhc if your own forcasts as a meteorolgist are off as well.

the storm ended up going pretty much the way the forcasted it to afterall...

The Wave near the Islands looks Splashy on IR (#11)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 07:17AM 18-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNWP*)

The wave near the ISlands looks very splashy this morning with reds and a dark dot in the center. It is one of those systems that will drive the forecasters bonkers with all the troughs and active fall weather beginning to slide to the south. This could make for some fine forecast sleuthing or for some real irritable arguing depending on the attitudes of the trackers. Either way, the fun is not over yet!

Can we turn the page back to it's normal color now (#12)
Posted by:
OrlandoDude (http://†ÿ€©@hè) Location: O-Town
Posted On 10:31AM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRQYNRPYNVX*)

I think the storm has gone and all warnings in FL are lifted...Can we turn the pages back to their normal color.. While it was really cool, it was dificult seeing some of the writing..

Gordon, and TD#12?? (#13)
Posted by:
Richard Byett ( Location: Gloucester, England, UK
Posted On 11:24AM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RQRNQSYNSRNRPV*)

Gordon looks to be gone now, being only a weak Tropical Depression. A Tropical Depression warning remains in effect on my site for the States of Georgia and south carolina until 22:00 UTC tonight. It is still possible that the storm may regenerate if it gets close enough to the ocean, but that chance is slipping away with each passing hour.
Now my attention is drawn to what was once TD#12. It looks good on both visible and satellite imagery, and latest discussions show a anticyclone may be developing over the disturbed area, and is accompanied by a surface low. A Recon flight may investigate this area this afternoon,. But with little shear and favourable conditions i think we may see this system regenerate, and it will need watching closely now. A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is in effect for this area from my site also.

Comments on Two Lows (#14)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 11:53AM 18-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQRV*)

E. Atlantic Low: This is the more interesting of the two, IMO. It has a good cyclonic signature on the loops, though convection is a little ragged.
What are its prospects? As I've said before, if it develops way out there, its chances of affecting the U.S. are climatologically slim. As for the Caribbean, that's anyone's guess, but I'd argue against it until it develops, if at all.

A well-defined trough is indicated in the central tropical Atlantic, east of the Antilles. All of the models forecast this trough to persist through 72 hours, though some make it weaker or stronger than others. For it to miss the trough, it would have to track across at low latitudes; seeing as to that systems frequently adopt a WNW track upon intensifying, development would likely carry it into an environment with unfavorable shear. If this develops in the central Atlantic, I don't see it becoming a major player.

Finally, though I don't trust models when it comes to forecasting TC-formation, only the AVN develops this low.

Caribbean Low: This one looks okay in the sat pics, especially in the latest visible ones. Development is possible, but with its current track that "rides" the Antilles, interference from land interaction may be a problem. Conditions aren't forecast to be particularly favorable in either the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico through 72 hours; the models tend to be leaning to unfavorable to neutral solutions. Once again, if this develops, I don't see it becoming much to write home about, given what I see so far.

x-td 12 (#15)
Posted by:
Doug Spangler Location: sarasota
Posted On 12:09PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQTTNQNTR*)

Current satellite shows strong s-n upper level winds which is blowing some convection off toward the nnw over (Hispaniola toward the so Bahamas) of the apparent circulation center...this environment persists well out into the w. fact the upper level trough that squirted Gordon to the nne so rapidly has dug that far down it seems... the environment does not appear to be totally favorable for extensive or rapid development...just my uneducated opinion. EDS

The Two Lows (#16)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 12:22PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Tend to agree JJ. And welcome back Richard! Were you on holiday? The low in the East Atlantic is a week and a half away so although it looks good now, there's no concern with it. If it develops slowwwwly it may travel at a low latitude, and could threaten the islands, but it's way too early to tell that. The low just south and over Hispaniola has really surprised me this morning as I expected just some minor convection. It appears to be developing a circulation just south of the island, but will have a tough row to hoe, unless it gets to the north of Cuba, or stays south which would take it towards Jamaica. Even if it does, I have little confidence in these systems due to the chaotic upper air pattern with Gordon departing and shear which may affect it in the next day. However, if an anticyclone develops over it and builds we could get surprised. The track record this season has shown over and over again that tropical systems have had a tough time getting thier act together, and I expect nothing different from this caribbean system at this time. But then again, there's always a first. Interestingly, NWS offices on the Florida East Coast have this disturbed area of weather moving into south Florida from the SE on Wednesday, but as a trough. If it develops, timing and direction should be somewhat different. Stay tuned. Cheers!!

td 12 (#17)
Posted by: scottsvb (
Posted On 01:44PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRSNQXWNQWY*)

We are watching the area south of hispaniola for tropical development. A recon is on its way down
there to investigate the system. A low has formed down there of 1009mb. Conditions has become
favorible for more development and movement will
be off to the wnw. There is a 50-50 chance this
will be classified a TD as of 5pm,but if not then,
will most likly be tomorrow if it holds it's
convection tonight. IF it does develop, a system
could intensify moderatly over the next 2 days and
turn up across c to w Cuba near the keys by late
weds n into Thurs. A strong cold front should
enter florida later Thursday pushing the system
north, scottsvb

20N/70W (#18)
Posted by: David
Posted On 02:37PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

It looks like it wants to brew up some circulation. I guess we will have a better idea tomorrow.

TD #12 (#19)
Posted by: Steve H,
Posted On 03:58PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Looks like they're re classifying TD#12 again it's on the NRL page now as NONAME. Seems that the circulation center is formed on the (south of) the SW leg of Haiti. Stay tuned ... cheers!!

Recon report (#20)
Posted by:
alan Location: orlando
Posted On 04:22PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

Recon didn't find a closed circulation. They don't expect one to form while it is near the coast of Haiti, but said it would likely form as it moves away from the coast.
They'll send recon back in tommorrow.

Comment on the Carib. Low (#21)
Posted by: JJ
Posted On 05:46PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (QRYNQQUNUSNQPU*)

The system looks very good on the latest vis imagery; I've been impressed by its fairly quick reorganization today. The strongest convection--and hence, the probable location of the CC--is near Port-au-Prince as of 18/2045Z.

Jumped the Gun (#22)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay FL
Posted On 06:20PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNTY*)

Yes , I jumped the gun on this did the NRL perhaps, since they "had" it up on their page at 3:30 and it looked like a circulation was there and I think there is. Maybe next update since it is impressive. cheeers!

GFDL Dep #12 (#23)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 07:41PM 18-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNRR*)

Latest GFDL model run at 18Z for ex-depression number 12 and soon to be again

Potential for another GOM event...

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