CFHC Talkback For News Story #118:
Newest Talkback: 02:41 AM 10-15 EDT

Hurricane Irene Forms South of Western Cuba
06:17 AM EDT - 14 October 1999

Although the future track is still somewhat debatable, signs indicate that it will effect us in Florida this weekend. There is already a hurricane Watch for the southern half of the Keys and for a good portion of western Cuba. We may see watches for the West Coast tomorrow.

How strong will Irene get and where will landfall be? This is open for discussion, and I'm not willing to comment yet. The storm is growing stronger now, but Cuba will impede it a bit. How much it does may be critical for us. We'll be watching.



For more information on Irene, NRL Monterey Tracking Site (Navy) -- Very nice forecast track graphics.
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
GFDL Model & Plot for Irene and for BAMB,BAMM, LBAR & A90E Models Irene
Irene Multiple Model Forecast Composite from Michael Bryson

Weather Channel Caribbean Sat Image
Intellicast Caribbean IR Loop
Intellicast Atlantic IR Loop

More Sat images: Storm Centered imagery.

[N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.


- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #7 - #12 (of 48 total)
Irene (#7)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:33AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Alan---Hey I like you!!! You're right, there is no other way for people like us to talk back and forth. As for the cold front, they really weren't expecting that to make much of an impact until later today when it starts to slide down from Canada..some of the forecast discussions I have read from Florida this morning (from the IWIN site) stated that this system would stall until the system moved further south and started to have an impact on it. I would agree with you on NOGAPS, but so many other models have it moving on the forecast track it's hard to discount those also. I guess we will just wait and see. I just looked at the local radar and there are already feeder bands coming in just below Vero Beach. Looks heavy, too.
Hurricane Irene (#8)
Posted by: sir
Posted On 09:40AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNRX*)

I am totally up in the air on this one, I'm thinking Florida Panhandle right now, will see. :)
feeder bands (#9)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:44AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Doesn't it look like the only strong part of the hurricane is those feeder bands. They've moved quite a bit this morning and don't seem to be slowing down. Here in Orlando, the sun is shinning with just some high clouds. I don't think that's going to last for too much longer. If you look at the radar out of Key West, you can see the center of the storm. While it's not well defined, it looks like it started to very slowly move to the north. I hate waiting until 11 to find out.
Feeder Bands (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 09:50AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

Yes, it does look less organized on the western edge. However, it could be making somewhat of a comeback. I noticed on the satellite loop it is looking a teensy weensy more organized. I love looking at the clouds (for now) over here. So many different levels. Anyway, looks like the sunshine could cause havoc when those feeder bands start heading our way. It's sunny here too. Looks like heavy heavy rain. I also hate waiting until 11:00. and then 2 and then 5. But, hey, at least we can TALK amongst ourselves until then, right?
ramblings (#11)
Posted by: alan byrd Location: orlando
Posted On 09:58AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPVNRVNRTYNSR*)

Colleen,
I guess it's just us on the talk today, which is a shame, because I would like to here what others think about Irene.
Unfortunately I have to do some work from 10:30 to 11:30, but I'll post after then.
Irene (#12)
Posted by: Ronn Raszetnik, Jr. Location: Largo, Florida
Posted On 10:17AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (RPWNVYNTVNQQP*)

Irene has slowed down considerably this morning in response to the weakening of steering currents aloft. A trough of low pressure has passed to the north of Irene, leaving Irene in an environment conducive to only slow northward progression over the next 24 hours. As an intense trough of low pressure stoops down from the north, the steering currents will fortify from the south-southwest, instigating a faster north-northeast motion. As for the chances of a westward motion, I think they are little. The overall cloud outline indicates that any motion will be northward.

The intensity of Irene should remain at 75 MPH as the storm moves across western Cuba. Thereafter, I expect to see the commencement of steady intensification to strong Category 1 or Category 2 strength. Intensification is dependent on the effects of dry air in the western Gulf and the anticipated trough of low pressure.

God Bless You,
Ronn Raszetnik, Jr.
Irene (#13)
Posted by: Mark Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:43AM 14-Oct-1999 with id (QRNWWNQUPNQVS*)

Irene has stalled but this in it self is threatening for Florida. Most models yesterday showed a slow down north of Cuba aand then a more n-ne track there after. If this is the slow down that models forecasted then its much further south and as it starts to move again we may see a just east of north track develope and this may allow Irene to move more towards south Florida in the long term. I may be stretching it a little but this mournings upper air run is making me hedge a little this way for now..
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