CFHC Talkback For News Story #125:
Newest Talkback: 08:31 PM 10-01 EDT

Category 4 Hurricane Keith Still Moving Little
07:10 AM EDT - 01 October 2000

Keith is an amazing looking system. The folks along the Yucuatan's eastern coast are getting pounded right now. Keith is just sitting and spinning in very warm waters. It's still projected to head north, over land for a bit in the Yucatan and then into the central Gulf. What else can I say besides watch the system closely. Its slow movement prevents any serious future track talk, so the Gulf needs to watch out. I do expect it to weaken a bit over land (depends on how long it stays over land too), but not enough to get it below hurricane status.

Joyce is barely holding together and moving into the Caribbean, it may strengthen slightly once in the East Caribbean waters, but for now I'll minimize its importance.

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for Isaac., Joyce, or Keith From Michael Bryson.
Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Stormwarn2000 - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page
Satellite images at: [Visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [Infrared] (infrared), and [Water Vapor] (water vapor)
Loops: Visible Loop - Infrared Loop - Water Vapor Loop
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental)
StormCarib.com has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean.
Ouragans.com Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens.
Tormenta.net Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.
Live Webcam image from Florida Emergency Management's Emergency Operations Center
Florida Emergency Management Activation Page / Situation Updates

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #23 - #32 (of 32 total)

Communication from Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker (#23)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 01:53PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram
According to messages being sent to a communication board they we have a link to below, the islands of Ambergrin Caye and Caye Caulker are being devestated by the storm. There has been no communication from the people who were using battery-powered laptops since 12:30 p.m. Click here http://www.lovefm.com/910.ram to listen to a brief interview with the director of emergency services on the island in the midst of the hurricane's impact

That Is So Sad (#24)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:13PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYXNQXW*)


God Bless them all....I am praying for them all.

A SLOW MOTION ANDREW (#25)
Posted by:
LONNY Location: HOLLYWOOD,FL
Posted On 02:58PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYTNRPY*)


I went thru Andrew in 92.I can't conceive what they are going through.The eye wall sitting off the coast can only cause devastation.I hope Keith falls apart. All you can do is pray for them.

Eastward Component (#26)
Posted by:
Ed Dunham Location: Melbourne, FL
Posted On 03:38PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (VSNQVRNRRVNSP*)


Keith appears to be in the process of making a very tight cyclonic loop and seems to be drifting southeastward a few miles away from the coast. A possible scenario is that it will never make landfall on the Yucatan. It could complete the loop and head north or north northeast through the Yucatan Channel and into the southeast Gulf. The developing cloud structure just to the east of the center suggests a shift in its movement from a westward component to an eastward component. Western Cuba and Florida may have an unwanted visitor toward the end of this week.
Cheers,
ED

ED I Hope You are Wrong (#27)
Posted by:
Mary Location: Lakeland
Posted On 03:53PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QRNWWNQVRNRTU*)


Ed I have seen your forecasts and know of your good reputation. I sure hope that you are wrong on this call. But, I have been watching this storm since 3 :00 AM this morning and I am beginning to wonder myself what this thing is up to. It could have been inland as early as 6:00 am this morning, but it to this minute has not made a complete landfall, thus all the ingredients to exist continue to be supplied.

Eastward component... not yet (#28)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 03:59PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNRV*)


I've looked at every sat loop I could find in the past 30 minutes and I don't see any eastward component to Keith.... if anything it looks like it has jogged a little more to the west... not to say it won't go east cause who knows what this guy is going to do... impact with land is causing pressure to rise to 950 mb

Keith and Joyce (#29)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 04:07PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPVNQYV*)


Maybe not a match made in heaven for sure, more like hell. I don't know about Keith, but as Ed D. stated, could end up doing what the NHC said or alluded to last night, as well as a few other forecasters. Joyce is also a concern, as she is getting herself together (albeit slowly) but if she survives (and I think she will) is sure to be a threat, since conditions should be improving for her to develop and a WNW and eventual NW track seem inevitable. All of this is going to come down during this week, so keep an eye to the tropics. Stay tuned, and say a prayer for the folks in the Yucatan and Belize, as well as Honduras and Nicaraqua...they, for some reason get the brunt of these catastrophic storms. Why is it that people who can least handle a disaster seem always to get one

I Don't Know Steve (#30)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:14PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNRPR*)


Maybe because they have their faith in God, as much as our own government won't allow it in public, they are very religious. Especially in Mexico. I know I am rambling, but, I think God plays a role in all of this, good or bad. He is not testing their faith, and I believe (although I know they are suffering there) that their prayers is what has kept the wrath of this hurricane off the coast. This is in no means a meteorogocial point of view, only my own belief in God. Sorry. At this point, to be honest, I have no other ideas.

Eastward.....No (#31)
Posted by: Kevin
Posted On 04:15PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (RTNRWNRQYNQWV*)


Keith has continued to show a WSW motion for the past 10 hours. The last few frames in the loop indicate more of a stationary position. I see no indication of an eastward component at this time.
However, the storm has remained off-shore so, anything could happen.

Keep alert and don't forget we still have Joyce out to our SE.

movement.... little if none at all (#32)
Posted by:
Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 04:31PM 01-Oct-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPUNRV*)


Kevin, I agree, Keith has shown very little movement during the past hour from the loops I have been reviewing... so far the people in Mexico has received only the west half of this storm, then again, no one wants any side of a Cat 4 storm... and the east side is always worst than the west... hopefully it will weaken even more before (or if) it goes inland...


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