 March |
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On the 13th of March Jim Williams and Barometer Bob will be doing an audio broadcast on the 10th anniversary of the 1993 Storm of the Century. Check it out. - [jc] |
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Hi All!!
(#21) Posted by: TropicalWxWatcher Posted On 09:35PM 03-Mar-2002 with id (VVNQUWNWQNWQ*) |
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This is my first time posting here at CFHC. I just finished reading some of yall's posts and they were qiuet interesting. I will start posting more often as the season approaches! One question... does anyone chat in the chat room?
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Whats up
(#22) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:14AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is |={_}c| |
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Whats up
(#23) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:14AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is |={_}c| |
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Whats up
(#24) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:15AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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Whats up all been a while huh last time i posted i think it was olga well ne way this year florida is , (bare with me) The past seven years something has been happening record numbers of storms wierd changes nothing knew. At the end of the 99 season evryone started talking about this azor bermuda high moving west. this west movment was supposed to drive the hurricanes further west and give florida all the storms. well most of you think what are they talking calling people nuts last season well guess what it did happen 2 season in a row one with 2 strikes in a row not us but cozumel mexico they got hit buy 2 cat 4's back to back season and a one strong tropical storm. Keith 2001 140mph next season within a hundred miles chantel with 70 mph 2 months later an almost excact plot of keiths track 145mph triple concentric eyewall keith rolled through there. Now i dont no about all of you but that isnt normal that happend becuse the azore bermuda high was there. during the 1930's when you look back at records of when this pattern was last around you can almost depict the same thing happening the real activity happend down in mexico with the occasional one breaking through. (sorry for the jumpiness) in fact the past 2 seasons scence this supposed shift there has been shear murduring any storm that actully posed a threat to florida so no ventelation has happend in 3 years in the waters close to the coast and in the bahamas its been 10 years there are large pulls that just get trapped in there just warming up in some places aka tongu of the ocean these spotts will be thise things that just suddenly and viloently increase a hurricanes's streangth aka andrew and keith (on an interesting note keith and andrew were very familliar in that both of them were incredibly small and both strengthend violently at landfall and continued strengthening well inland) well ne ways this is the first year in wich there might be a weak el nino in the picture last time we saw this was 97 then it was la nina i have come to my conclusion la nina may make lots a of canes but it isnt what causes us strikes. La nina is a are saving grase this will be the first year with this knew higg pressure set up that will have to possibility of a weak el nino, evrything else remaining the same and favorable as we all belive will be the case leaves me to belive that it is the weak el that evryone thinks will have little or no effect on the strength and activity of this season that will allow the big one to roll through. its the only important change that i have noticed that will stop the big one from getting shreded apart.
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aaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhh
(#25) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:18AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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no matter how much you try to it right you always screw up
corecting up top Keith 2000 140mph next season within a hundred miles chantel with 70 mph 2 months later an almost excact plot of keiths track 145mph triple concentric eyewall iris rolled through there |
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Alright
(#26) Posted by: Robert Posted On 01:35AM 04-Mar-2002 with id (VWNSTNQWYNSX*) |
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LOL umm did ne one else cath on the fact that the storm of the century was in 93 not 92??
Just thought id let you no still got one more year till the tenth aniversary |
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92 / 93
(#27) Posted by: John C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL Posted On 12:33PM 04-Mar-2002 with id (RPVNRTVNRRPNQVY*) |
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Will correct. Thanks!
TropicalWXwatcher to answer you question on the chat room. Your welcome to schedule and use the chatroom at any time. It normally will only get used during big events like an approaching Hurricane or something of the sort. |
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cut off
(#28) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 03:50PM 04-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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man.. that thing is around 18/50. way WAY out of the westerlies. dying down now, but very weird to get a cold low running that deep into the tropics. at least i think it is? something like that in may and we have an early season storm.. see if it happens again. as for the old 12-8-4 prediction, i'm not going to change it.. but starting to think that it will be slightly high if anything.
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Did you know?
(#29) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 09:10AM 05-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQVT*) |
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Montana is our 41st state. Montana comes from Spanish word meaning "mountainous."
( Not english word ) |
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How Strange Thou Atlantic Art???
(#30) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 10:23AM 05-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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You would think you were looking at a spring/summer map. Several areas of cyclonic turning/disturbed weather. 1st approaching 40W/38N moving SW; 2nd at about 38W/6N; and the 3rd that HF mentioned the other day (I thinks) NE of the Virgin islands. All are tracking in a westward direction. Things to Come or just timing and synergy out of wack. Was a funny winter, gonna be a funny spring, will it be a funny hhurricane season....maybe not so funny. Too early for me to try a forecast. Cheers!!q
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Tropics are priming...
(#31) Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida Posted On 07:10PM 05-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXRNQUU*) |
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for what I think will be an active an very dangerous season. Looked at the satellite...and there seems to quite a bit of convection in tropical atlantic for this time of the year. As HankFrank has been saying...we may get a May storm this year. I think it's possible too, so we'll watch for it.
BTW...TSR (tropical storm risk) updates their forecast tommorrow. Website is www.tsr.com. Go to Atlantic forecast (6 Mar. update) and look at it. You'll need Adobe Acrobat Reader to view it. *Kevin* |
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What's up?
(#32) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie Posted On 12:06AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNRUS*) |
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The countdown's on. Hopefully we've seen the last of the winter here. N.O. had a couple of early warm spells, but this is the coldest and longest winter I can remember. I'd have to double check, but I'd bet 85% of the days so far in 2002 have been below normal. (And I hate the winter anyway). While we might still see some 60's days (avg. is 68-69), it looks like we've reached the end of the 40's and 50's highs. That's always a good sign - see ya in November!
I'll be looking for the tsr update tomorrow. Dr. Gray will be out in another month with his early April update. Bastardi will have his stuff up probably right after that. Hey, we're almost to training camp 2002. I don't know about a May ts this year, it's always possible. But I do think this will be a violent spring across the plains and the south. We had a 3 year drought that we're out of now by about 12-14 months. Usually the rains follow for several years. Check the upper pattern a few days after this weekend's front comes through and it might give some early indications to where the transitional battles will be fought in April and May. L8R, Steve |
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spring
(#33) Posted by: HankFrank Location: Tallahassee, FL Posted On 12:41AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (QRXNQXVNQRSNQYS*) |
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if things dont change too much yes this could be a stormy spring. the tendency over the winter was for a fast storm track straight across the country, not much blocking or arctic invasion.. therefore it was warmer relative to normal to the north, cooler in the south. if the fast storm track persists into the spring, increased solar flux will cause these quick storms to be violent rather than just rainy.
anyhow, not saying i think we will have a may storm. just saying it hasnt happened in a really long time and has some catching up to do. the onset of el nino will probably signal a hot summer for the south, also. more high latitude development. and such. another westpac super typhoon this time of year may also be signaling a less active atlantic season. |
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tsr.com
(#34) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 11:07AM 06-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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http://www.tropicalstormrisk.net/
Is the actual link. The February update is still there, so we'll have to wait a few more hours for the update. L8R, Steve |
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So here's what Tropical Storm Risk has to say in their 3/6/ update...
(#35) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 12:27PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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"TSR reduces slightly its earlier forecasts but still anticipates an active 2002 Atlantic Hurricane Season with basin storm numbers and strikes on the USA and Caribbean Lesser Antilles being 0-10% above the 10 year average and 20-30% above the 30 year average."
IH - 2.8 (+/- 1.9) HC - 7.2 (+/- 2.5) TS - 12.5 (+/- 3.6) Forming in MDR 10N - 20N, 20W - 60W), Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea: IH 2.8 HC 5.4 TS 9.3 US Landfalling Numbers HC 1.7 TS 3.5 "The key factors behind our forecast for an active season in 2002 are the anticipated enhancing effects of July-Sept. forecast 925mb U (east/west) winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical north Atlantic region (7.5N - 17.5N, 30W -100W) and of August-September forecast SST for the Atlantic MDR. The current forecast anomalies (1972-2001 climatology) for these predictors are 0.49+/-0.84ms-1 and 0.22+/-0.24 celsius respetively. Their next update will be 4/5/2002. Regular monthly updates will follow through to early 8/02. L8R, Steve |
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I Can't get the Update......
(#36) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 01:01PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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at the site yet. Did they reduce the number of total storms and hurricanes?? Thanks in Advance.
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James Lee Witt said.
(#37) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 05:51PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQVT*) |
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Atlantic basin: "We can't reduce the number of hurricanes. But we can reduce the impact they have on our lives." Witt said.
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James Lee Witt
(#38) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 07:51PM 06-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPSNQXT*) |
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James Lee Witt is 57 year old. I think
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RIght You Are John/James
(#39) Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL Posted On 07:30AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*) |
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I should've worded the question, "What did Tropical Storm Risk (UK) reduce their Forecast number of storms to be" ...I still can't click on the March 6th update to access their discussion...Cheers!!
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2002 Atlantic hurricane season
(#40) Posted by: John Location: South Florida Posted On 08:25AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*) |
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12 more hurricanes to go !!! LOL
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Steve
(#41) Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA Posted On 09:21AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*) |
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It's all in my post - #36 or #37.
L8R, Steve |
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2002
(#42) Posted by: doug Location: tampa Posted On 11:59AM 07-Mar-2002 with id (VUNSTNVVNRTX*) |
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I basically agree with HankFrank...looks like an el nino pattern setting up...another UL low spreading thunder bumpers across south Fla today, we haven't witnessed that stuff since the last el nino...and this is the third system of this sort in the last two weeks or so rainfall is increasing above the last three year pattern which isn't all that bad...
but IF el nino builds, look for fewer storms in the Atlantic... and what was with the wespac storm last week very unusual... |