Here's an example of one of last year's storms that nevered touched U.S. soil because of the conditions in the Atlantic. The storm was Erin, as you mentioned. Well, it got sheered out, and perhaps this was because at the time the Azores High was creating too much sheer for Erin to survive. So, it reformed to the north and went fishing because of that. It could have also gotten sheered out the first time around because of the Easterly QBO winds last year. With the Azores High in the proper strength and postion this year (forecasted to be favorable by Gray, but still an unknown effect on 2002 storms as far as I'm concerned), the westerly QBO winds (this will allow the mid-level and low-level circulations to align properly thus decreasing chances of dissipation quite significantly.) Okay, so suppose the 2001 was a year where the Azores High was not causing subsidence and sheer over the Atlantic and it was a westerly QBO year. Well, as you mentioned, Erin wouldn't have dissipated at first and probably would have had a better chance to stay at a low latitude. The U.S. would have probably gotten a good beating had the stuff with Erin not happened. Okay, so the chances of us having more deep tropics storms this year looks pretty good (probably won't be as much of a baroclinic year as last year was), so with the westerly QBO and a possibly more favorable Azores High, what do you think the storms will do this year? Looks like a big East Coast year to me. Once again, the Azores/Bermuda High are the million dollar question this year as far as storm tracks/intensity go.
*Kevin*
|
