CFHC Talkback For News Story #3:
Newest Talkback: 12:25 AM 04-04 EDT

The Next Two Months
04:50 PM EDT - 14 March 2002 | Fifty-six Comments | Read Comments | Last 20 Comments | Newest: 12:25 AM 04-04 EDT



The next two months at Flhurricane, we'll be slowly moving over to the new 2002 look, which isn't all that different from the current one. We are changing the way talkback will work which will allow us to manage them better, and add a bunch of things for that.

The automated weather bits will change little, but we hope to have everything running by hurricane season.

Right now, we are still using the old system, and feel free to comment.

This season, I think, will be very different from the last few, so we hope to be ready.

Thanks everyone!

- [mac]



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Displaying Talkbacks #29 - #42 (of 56 total)
Disagree (#29)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: Palm Bay, FL
Posted On 11:31PM 26-Mar-2002 with id (VTNQRNQPTNRY*)
I believe that continued above normal cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin will lead ultimately to landfall of a dangerous storm. Statistically it's impossible to continue in this pattern without getting hit by one sooner or later. Don't know when or where, but it's gonna come whether a trough is on the east coast or a bubble of high pressure. Andrew was nearly a fish until the trough passed it by and high pressure built in shunting it to the WSW from a position north of PR. It's all in the timing. Talk of TUTTs and Azores/Bermuda highs is interesting and can explain why things occur, but when it comes right down to it each storm setup is unique since so many variables come into play that make paths of these storms different. Time is on the side of a big one coming soon (relatively speaking). On another note, I am getting a bit concerned about the El Nino influence this season. I as stated in a post a last week, the warming of the Pacific waters along the west coast of S. America looked strikingly familiar to the 1997 snapshot of March 15. Dr. Dewpoint posted the same thing today. But he pointed out that the N. Pacific waters are cooler this year than in '97. Will that keep a strong EL Nino influence in check this summer? Don't know...have to watch it's progress. If it's a weak El Nino, we could see a season along the lines of 1995/96, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. Two more months to go! Cheers!!


Re: The El Nino This year and the Pacific (#30)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, FL
Posted On 09:27AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPY*)
I was just wondering...hasn't it been said that when the Pacific season is more active than the Atlantic that the season would be slower than normal? If that is correct, than based on the information were seeing (warmer Atlantic basin temps than in the Pacific) than we will see a busy season.

If I'm wrong, feel free to let me know, but I was sure that somewhere I read that.

Colleen


East Pacific hurricane seasons on record! (near California) (#31)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:44AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUR*)
Record here!

1952- 3 hurricanes
1962- 2 hurricanes
1965- 1 hurricane

Decrease in hurricanes expected !





Did you know? (#32)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 09:46AM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQUR*)
There were more hurricanes in Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea than East Pacific (Near California) last year!!


Response to posts 30 and 31. (#33)
Posted by: Kevin Location: Orlando, Florida
Posted On 04:47PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (QVXNQYQNXSNQYV*)
1.Many times it is true that when the Pacific is very active, the Atlantic is quiet and vice-versa. An example:1995. Pacific had 9 storms (I think) and the Atlantic had 19. Strong La Nina that year inhibited much Pacific development. Last year, OVERALL conditions in the Atlantic in the Pacific were about the same, so we saw Pacific and Atlantic seasons that were very similar, by the numbers anyway. This year, the Pacific should be slightly more active than the Atlantic.
2.Well, John, I really don't know what you're trying to poke at. It seems to me that you are just picking out years and showing how those numbers in the first year you picked decreased compared with other years you picked. I think this is an invalid way to look at the increase in Atlantic tc activity. One thing that is positive that I wanted to point out though, is that the years you showed were in the 50's and this was a time when the Atlantic was very active.

Anyway, no matter how much of an activity spike the Atlantic takes over the next 10-25 years, once we get a U.S. major hurricane finally (which should be in a couple of years, if not this year), things are gonna go to hell real fast (in terms of U.S. majors making landfall). My 2 cents. Commments welcome!
Kevin A. Budd
Orlando, Florida


Atlantic hurricane seasons on record ! (#34)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 08:29PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
1912- Titanic
1914- 0 hurricanes
1925- 1 hurricane
1982- 2 hurricanes
1994- 3 hurricanes
1995- a very busy season
1996- a very busy season
1997- 3 hurricanes again because El nino reduced number of hurricanes!
1998 to 2001 very busy seasons again!


Ripley's Believe It Or Not! (#35)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 08:33PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
Atlantic basin: We will see 4 hurricanes or more each year.


Dr. Gray talked about Atlantic basin (#36)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 10:45PM 27-Mar-2002 with id (RPYNRTPNRRRNQSP*)
"We believe we've entered a new era for storm activity." Gray said.


2002 Atlantic hurricane season (#37)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 06:16AM 28-Mar-2002 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNUR*)
FORT COLLINS, Colo., Dec.7 Long-range forcaster William Gray of Colorado State University said Friday that next year's hurricane season will see more hurricanes than average, including four major storms.
(Click here)http://www.hurricanes.net/content/news/osn/805de7estf.asp


Just for Grinz (#38)
Posted by: Steve H. Location: palm bay, FL
Posted On 12:37PM 28-Mar-2002 with id (QUUNQPTNRSYNQV*)
See that area of convection and twisting NNE of Puerto Rico. GGEM has a weak surface low develop there. Sign of things to come


What's up Steve H? (#39)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 08:39PM 28-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNWY*)
Unfortunately, it wasn't me who won on Jeopardy, nor was it me who won the $48MM Powerball jackpot in Kenner last night. So I doubt I'll be flying my Cesna all over the SE hoping to catch some tropical action this year. But yeah, it is good to see everyone creeping back in (what's up Colleen?). Maybe 'always positive' Shawn from Houston and some of the guys from the MS Coast will be back by June.

Steve


Got a note from internet few years ago. lol (#40)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 05:52PM 30-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUV*)
"The Atlantic Ocean looks slightly more conducive to hurricane formation as sea surface temperatures have risen and, we believe, will continue to rise," he said.

Conducive mean better conditons for hurricane.


Some forecasts to watch for... (#41)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 03:14AM 31-Mar-2002 with id (VSNQWNQWNV*)
Dr. Gray's updated forecast comes out this Friday (4/5/02). The NHC's forecast will be released on 5/23 during Hurricane Awareness Week 2002.

Steve


Bull (#42)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:13PM 31-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPQ*)
Harry Bull was not afraid of ghosts.

"The Most Haunted House in England" page 49.


BULL'S PICTURE AND DEATH CERTIFICATE HERE! (#43)
Posted by: John Location: South Florida
Posted On 12:34PM 31-Mar-2002 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNRPQ*)
Death Certificate- http://www.borleyrectory.com/documents/HFBdeath.htm
Photo- http://www.borleyrectory.com/photos/harryphoto.htm


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