CFHC Talkback For News Story #61:
Newest Talkback: 02:16 PM 07-29 EDT

July... No Named Storms
09:28 AM EDT - 27 July 2001

Barring no last minute surprises, looks like we'll go through July with out a named system. However, this benefit will be short lived.

SNONUT (from one of our hosted sites), is predicting early August activity from the Cape Verde. And judging by what I've seen lately, I have no reason to doubt it. (Which, of course, is when I'm out of town 3-15th (hemisphere even))) Add to that a pattern is setting up which may be less friendly for recurving of storms... So it's likely storms will stay further south this year. Which means the Southeast, including Florida could have some close calls this year.

For now, though. Nothing much worth watching, although the activity with the waves coming off Africa will get more and more interesting.

August could ramp up quickly, so be on the lookout.

BR>
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
[NAtl visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [NAtl infrared] (infrared), and [NAtl water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.
Defiant Visible Infrared More...
Other commentary at: Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center - Accuweather's Joe Bastardi - Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Services - SCOTTSVB's Hurricane Update Center - Jim Williams' Hurricane City - Gary Gray's Millennium Weather - Even More on our Links Page

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]


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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #9 (of 51 total)

You may be outta there just in time.... (#1)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 11:42AM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPXNRTXNRSQNUX*)


http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/mrf_4panel_6d.gif

Here's the MRF for Tuesday! The airport may be busy!

Steve

Swirl over the Bahamas (#2)
Posted by:
Dave
Posted On 01:03PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QRNTQNYQNRST*)


Looking at this link, it looks like something is swirlling about over the Islands. Any thoughts on if it has a shot at developing?

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html" target="_blank">http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html">http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html

RE:You may be outta there just in time.... (#3)
Posted by:
Mike C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Orlando, FL (Currently)
Posted On 01:40PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VVNRPNQQVNUX*)


Ouch. If something does happen while I am in Sydney, then John will take over the site, and I can still update from there, but it will be difficult. Next month is sure to be interesting.

Yep (#4)
Posted by:
John C. (http://flhurricane.com) Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 03:13PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (QYYNRTQNXNQXT*)


Sure will!


shear! (#5)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 05:24PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRQWNRUR*)


what is causing all the shear in the gulf?whatever it is it's from the east going west.the clouds are being destroyed out there.it doesn't look like anything could survive out there right now.

BARRY (#6)
Posted by: NICK Location: ORLANDO ,FL
Posted On 10:00PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VTNQRNQPQNQWR*)


Looks like wave # 1 is coming to life, cant wait to see a hurricane/ just no landfalling one, well the next few days might get intresting, ill be watching this one

wave (#7)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 10:03PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXR*)


Here's my question...the wave at 45w,20n has little convection, is it truly realistic that this wave actually has any potential for development? it seems that the NHC seems to think so. i'm still a novice but from what i've learned so far is that you need persistance and convection. we do have persistence but not so much deep convection. can someone help me understand what is happening here. thanks

td#3? (#8)
Posted by: Shawn Location: houston,tx
Posted On 10:05PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPWNRQXNRSVNRTT*)


the nhc says we may see td#3 in the caribbean sometime during the weekend.does anyone have an opinion on this?

Nick.... (#9)
Posted by: Steve Location: Old Metairie, LA
Posted On 10:08PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (VSNQWNQWNRU*)


Did you catch this in the latest TDW?

>>STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 37W HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED SIGNIFICANTLY W TO 45W AT 27/1800 UTC. THIS WAVE IS OBVIOUS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY TO THE W AT 20-25KT BASED ON APPROXIMATELY 9-10 DEG LONGITUDE MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

This is the second time they've done this in the last 24 hours. It looks like it's coming to life to me as well. You can actually see the swirl around 51W 15N. That system is moving very quickly, but some storms are starting to fire on the western edge of the circulation. The NHC thinks the storm will meet favorable conditions in the East Carribean after it goes thru the islands tomorrow. That's probably why the models have the storm to South Florida by Tuesday. I thought that was early, but it makes more sense now. It's going to be very interesting to see what the new model runs say about Monday and Tuesday. If thunderstorms start wrapping, I say we've got a 50/50 chance to have TD #3 tomorrow. The only thing that might inhibit development right now is the forward speed. My early money says if this thing slows down, it's Cat #1 material.

I know it's early, but does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Steve

when? (#10)
Posted by: Nick
Posted On 10:17PM 27-Jul-2001 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXR*)


when and where did NHC say anything about a depression? enlighten me


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