CFHC Talkback For News Story #89:
Newest Talkback: 05:43 PM 09-12 EDT

Tropical Storm Florence
02:31 PM EDT - 11 September 2000

Florence has formed already from TD#10. It's basically drifting at this point, and is a little stronger than I thought it would be (60MPH winds).

Since it is drifting somewhat westward right now, it will have to be watched. I still think it will eventually head out to sea without affecting land. But because slow moving storms are difficult to predict, we must be vigilant.

More to come...

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #12 (of 33 total)
Florence's Pressure (#1)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 02:44PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

Colleen,

You asked earlier if the pressure would be lower than 1000mb in the center of Florence. It was posted at 998mb, but that was estimated. These hybrid storms are a bit tricky in that sometimes the pressure is much lower than you would see in a 60 mph storm that is forming in the deep tropics. Not exactly sure why, so anyone with theories, please feel free to help!

By the way, you are right on with Jim Cantore! Interesting side note: did you know he was once assaulted in St. Pete because a man decided it was his fault that a hurricane was threatening the area
Poor Jim! (#2)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:52PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Clyde, I did not know that!! Poor guy...he's very straight forward, kind of like the ABC guy here, Dennis Philips...he says what his gut is telling him. I like John Hope and Steve Lyons, but basically they just read the advisories and that's it. So are you saying that the pressure could be lower or higher than 998mb? Is that what recon has found? Or is NHC estimating that is what they will find? Thanks for your help!!! Colleen
Latest T#'s (#3)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 02:58PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYYNQTU*)

Here are the latest T#'s:

Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

11/1745Z 30.3N 72.6W T2.5/2.5 TS Florence


Recon (#4)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 03:02PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNWSNRQSNU*)

The pressure was estimated to be 998mb. It most likely will be around that. The only reason it might be higher is if the 1000mb reading was in a convective supercell, which would produce lower pressure readings than surrounding areas. However, Beryl this year had 50 mph winds and a 1008mb pressure, much higher than the 998mb that Florence has. I was just wondering why that might be, and if it had anything to do with Florence being a hybrid storm?

As for TWC, I personally think the Tropical Update is very weak this year. I used to love it in year's past, but it is not very informative any more. Now when I want good information, I go surfing ;)
florence and colleen,,,good job (#5)
Posted by: scottsvb (http://communities.msn.com/HURRICANEUPDATECENTER)
Posted On 04:04PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQQNQVUNW*)

great job on your sorces colleen,,,I'm looking forward to your perdictions on this system.

Florence in the mean time should slowly continue to get better organinzed. The pressure should continue to drop and a SW motion around 5-8pm should continue through tonight.
Most models indicated a turn to the NE tomorrow or that night,,but this is a wait and see feature as they have her already alittle farther N then the postion and she just jogged more SSW in the last 2-3 hours.
None the less,,,she might just go NE,,but lets just watch as she could move just n of Grand Bahama island then maybe go wnw towards the NE fl coast before the turn.
Lets all collect our data and try to get the path and strength of her. I do see her becoming a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow.

scottsvb
Thanks, Scott! (#6)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:08PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQXW*)

Thanks Scott...I have learned a lot justfrom surfing the web...although, I have to admit, I am having a hard time finding her center right now. Maybe my eyes are just tired!!! As for a prediction? I am not really that good at predicting what I think will happen, and that's because I am not that good a reading shear maps, upper level winds, etc...but I can predict this: I will be watching her closely. Colleen
A Good View of Florence's Center (#7)
Posted by: clyde w. Location: orlando
Posted On 04:17PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (TNQWNRUPNU*)

Colleen,

This site may help with finding the center of Florence.

http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/float/float-vis-loop.html
Florence Path? (#8)
Posted by: dieter Location: CT
Posted On 04:31PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QUYNQPXNSQNRUS*)

Hi all, new poster to this board - I've been evesdropping for a while. Everyone does a top notch job, very professional. I'm not a meteorologist (am an engineer) so I tend to leave predictions to the experts - particuarly tropical systems. Just thought I'd pass along that Bastardi on accuweather had some interesting thoughts on this thing as of early this a.m. He felt it was a T.S. then and gives it a 25% chance of heading up coast and 25% of it heading harmlessly out to sea. The other 50% was all other possibilities. Interesting read as he noted the present situation as suspiciously similar to Carol back in 1954. Carol was eventually drawn up the coast.
Recon Report (#9)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 04:52PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVS*)

Here's a recon report I found:

URNT12 KNHC 111954
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1955Z
B. 30 DEG 05 MIN N
72 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. 55 KT
E. 300 DEG 045 NM
F. 044 DEG 51 KT
G. 298 DEG 044 NM
H. EXTRAP 997 MB
I. 20 C/ 370 M
J. 23 C/ 357 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/1
O. .25/2 NM
P. AF980 0110A CYCLONE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 1815Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

=
Now, this report is from 4:00pm so my question is this: I know before highest windspeed they found was se of the center, and now this is in the NE quadrant at 79knts. Is this report just giving them more information or does it change the actual strength of the storm? I guess it really wouldn't, but who knows..if YOU or some you know knows, please let me know!!!
Looks Like Flo is Strengthening Quickly (#10)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:00PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNVS*)

I guess I answered my own question:

WTNT25 KNHC 112042

TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL AL1000

2100Z MON SEP 11 2000

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.7W AT 11/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

I did not copy the rest of it because I figured you all would be able to read the 5PM discussion. This puts it at 69mph winds/ with gusts to 86 mph...which is 5mph below Hurricane 1 status...this is just simply amazing to me! She went from being non-tropical to just below minimum hurricane strenght in 12 hours...I guess Mother Nature has awoken. Colleen
Florence (#11)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:02PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNQXQ*)

Colleen and all-

Florence does not yet have the classic tropical configuration, but it is working on it. NHC decided the surface winds were 60 mph based on a 64 kt FL wind, so therefore, if they consider the 79 kt ob as 'real', the may pop Florence up to hurricane strength at 5. The only reasons they may hold off;
1. may not be representative
2. lack of classic signature
3. closeness to coast- in other words, if they are't sure, they'll hold off.
4. Pressure doesn't support

I'll be surprised if they don't at least raise the winds to 65-70 mph.

An interesting scenario. Florance probably was storm yesterday...at the peak of the season!

The Gulf is beginning to fire, and the system e of the Islands is holding together. Looks like the Carib system is trying too.
Here we go! As I observed the other day,the demise of the season is not yet upon us!

IHS,

Bill
oops (#12)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 05:04PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRPXNSQNQXQ*)

Well, as Colleen says, the questions are answered! I took too long typing.

IHS,

Bill

Note the more sw path .
How Far? (#13)
Posted by: David
Posted On 06:27PM 11-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRUNTV*)

Can anyone tell me how far (in miles) is Florence from Cape Canaveral?

Thanks
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