CFHC Talkback For News Story #91:
Newest Talkback: 03:59 PM 09-13 EDT

Flo a Hurricane. Activity Picking Up.
04:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000

As stated earlier, Florence is now a hurricane, but still is not threatening to land. However the West Caribbean System still bears watching as well as a system in the Central Atlantic.

More Later..

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #1 - #14 (of 35 total)
Navy Tropical Cyclone Alert (#1)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 05:43PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNQYX*)

WNTN02 KNGU 122102
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 122105Z SEP 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/041759Z SEP 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT21 KNGU 041700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N4 81.5W4 TO 18.1N0 82.9W9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 122045Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 16.7N4 81.5W4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:AREA OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION TRACKS NW AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140801Z4.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.0N3 43.1W8//
BT
#0001

Notice the winds are only estimated, so once recon gets in there, it could go either way....
td #11?!?! (#2)
Posted by: troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 06:14PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQVNTVNUR*)



looks like we may have td 11 by 11pm seeing the info above ( yet another great find by coleen)and the latest sat images seem to show a circulation. plus twc shows the area where the wave is siting as favorable for development.

a funny twc side note. a former discussion mentioned how twc's tropical update isnt what it has been in recent years. I wonder if steve lyons stops here. the 5:50pm update was the most non scripted i have seen this year.


that update also showed the wave east of the islands as being in a favorable area. should be an interesting day or watching for development.
NTC (#3)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 06:16PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNTV*)

Colleen, what is the web address for the NTCA you referenced.... thanks FP
Navy site (#4)
Posted by: Bill Location: TLH
Posted On 06:29PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPTNQQPNRQTNYT*)

Not to jump ahead of Colleen, here is the Navy site address:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?9

IHS,

Bill
site (#5)
Posted by: Frank Location: Biloxi MS
Posted On 06:31PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYUNTV*)

thanks Bill

fp
Navy address (#6)
Posted by: William winn Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 07:08PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQVPNRTRNQVX*)

Bill,this is the correct address isnt it?http//www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?9 I typed this address in & i got nothing.
Thanks--William
SPECIAL STATEMENT (#7)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 07:11PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (QVUNQVQNSNQS*)

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000

THIS AFTERNOON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATED THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA AND COULD NOT FIND A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THEY DID FIND A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS ALSO
QUITE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH NO LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WAS FOUND...THE AIRCRAFT DID OBSERVE A LARGE AREA OF
SURFACE PRESSURES OF 1008 TO 1009 MB...AND ALSO WINDS OF 30 MPH WELL
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME...AND ANOTHER
HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART
Navy Sits (#8)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:19PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

William hope this helps neighbor http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.shtml
oops (#9)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:23PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

I meant site like dew point
oops (#10)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:23PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

I meant site like dew point
New Test on 95L (#11)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:33PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)


.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION (AL9500) ON 20000913 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

000913 0000 000913 1200 000914 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.0N 81.9W 18.5N 83.8W 19.9N 85.5W

BAMM 17.0N 81.9W 18.5N 84.1W 19.8N 86.0W

A90E 17.0N 81.9W 18.2N 83.5W 19.4N 85.0W

LBAR 17.0N 81.9W 18.5N 83.7W 20.1N 85.5W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

000914 1200 000915 0000 000916 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.1N 86.9W 22.1N 87.8W 22.9N 88.0W

BAMM 21.2N 87.8W 22.2N 89.0W 23.4N 90.2W

A90E 20.7N 86.3W 22.1N 87.3W 24.5N 86.8W

LBAR 21.6N 87.0W 22.7N 87.9W 23.9N 87.5W

SHIP 51KTS 59KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LAT0 = 17.0N LON0 = 81.9W DIR0 = 310DEG SPD0 = 10KT

LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 78.6W

WND0 = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = -9NM RD34SE = -9NM RD34SW = -9NM RD34NW = -9NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Florence (#12)
Posted by: Eric K
Posted On 08:35PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQX*)

Flrencefhhhhhjfhfjkhhhhkfjdhhhhutyyyyyy7itgyudyyutgy
Florence (#13)
Posted by: Eric K
Posted On 08:36PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (VSNTRNQTQNQX*)

gy
Frank (#14)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:38PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYWNQXV*)

The link is also posted here under Storm Links, in case you had problems finding it...

In reference to the sidenote about TWC, I know a certain well known TWC Tropical weather specialist that stopped in looking for Mike Anderson on his live chat a few weeks ago.....maybe they do come here!!! and there!!!
Colleen (#15)
Posted by: Gary Location: Hernando Beach
Posted On 08:43PM 12-Sep-2000 with id (RTNQVTNVNRTV*)

Have you seen any T#'s on 95L?
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