CFHC Talkback For News Story #91:
Newest Talkback: 03:59 PM 09-13 EDT

Flo a Hurricane. Activity Picking Up.
04:50 PM EDT - 12 September 2000

As stated earlier, Florence is now a hurricane, but still is not threatening to land. However the West Caribbean System still bears watching as well as a system in the Central Atlantic.

More Later..

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)


Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET

- [mac]

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Displaying Talkbacks #29 - #35 (of 35 total)
NWS melbourne (#29)
Posted by: alan Location: orlando
Posted On 09:59AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPVNRQUNRRQNRUR*)

From the NWS office in Melbourne at 3:30 am
FRI-SUN...THU'S WX DILEMMA CARRIES WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WHATEVER
DOES OR DOESN'T FORM OVER THE CARIBBEAN...THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
IT'S ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD IS IN SERIOUS QUESTION. MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS POINT ANYWHERE FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE
BEING CARRIED WESTWARD INTO WESTERN GOMEX TO A SERIOUS SOAKING FOR
THE STATE. SCENARIO WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AND HOW FAST/STRONGLY THE
EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES. IN ANY EVENT...A COOL FRONT
WILL BE DRIVEN SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY SATURDAY...AND
SOMEWHERE INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THIS...IN AND OF
ITSELF...FAVORS GENERAL TREND OF INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES.
SINCE A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
MORE WESTWARD SCENARIO WITH THE CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE...WILL FAVOR
AS SUCH.


Future Gordon (#30)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 10:01AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Thw western carib will have Gordon soon, probably later today. I am not buying the NNE track of the GFDL like I thought yesterday, although it it still possible depending on the EAsT coast long wave predicted to develop. It appears on vis sat pix to be moving a bit more west. But if it doesn't hit the yucatan peninsula, i also disagree with the GFDL intensity. This could be a much stronger system then the model is giving credit for, particularly if the longwave doesn't set up and it gets into the central gulf. TBD still, but the turn to the NE isn't as likely at this time IMO. CHeers!!
20/50 (#31)
Posted by: David
Posted On 10:27AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNQQTNRRPNRTW*)

The action going on at 20/50 I don't think is going to make it.


http://sgihss3f.wwb.noaa.gov/data4/images/TROPICAL/atl/catl-wv-loop.html


It looks like it is coming under shear, or is that "outflow".


My guess on the Caribbean is that we may see some rain and that all. Thats great cause, we are behind on the wet stuff.
NWS Forecast Discussions (#32)
Posted by: Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 11:18AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNRPPNUS*)

This is from the after midnite discussion out of Key West
A TROPICAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NW AND REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE MAY DEVELOP INTO A DEPRESSION. AFTER THE WAVE REACHES
THE GULF...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST...AS THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BUILD SOUTHWARD. THE 00Z MODELS LOOK TOO QUICK
WITH THE WAVE AND DEVELOP IT TOO QUICKLY. THE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR TRACK WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...WITH THE ETA MODEL THE
SLOWEST. THE AVN HAS THE TIGHTEST CIRCULATION WITH THE SYSTEM. ACROSS THE FL KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS AND MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHEST WINDS AND PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THE WAVE SHOULD BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE STEERING FLOW FOR T-STORMS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT
FROM THE SE-S TODAY...AND NOT AS LIGHT FROM THE S-SW ON THURSDAY.

This is from the Tampa Bay Forecast Discussion this morning:

MARINE: NO CHANGES ATTM. PENDING NHC COORD CALLS...ESP AFT THE
RECON IS COMPLETE...MAY ELECT TO REMOVE THE DISCLAIMER IN THE
ZONE TEXT ITSELF. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE IT ALONE.

Ok, I looked, didn't see any disclaimer in the zone text, so I have no clue as to what they are talking about. I guess it's either good or bad LOL!!!


Animation (#33)
Posted by: StormHound (http://www.stormhound.homestead.com) Location: O-Town
Posted On 11:25AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QRNSUNQWNR*)

Cool animation Mike! I continue to be amazed at the info that is available on the web. Sure makes storm tracking a whole lot more interesting than it was 10 years ago when all we got was new coordinates from the TV every few hours.
td#11 (#34)
Posted by: gary Location: jacksonville, fl.
Posted On 11:25AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQURNVUNR*)

From what I can see on the new sat pics. It looks like the disturbance in the carr. is growing stronger.
Does anyone else have any thoughts?
Carib and Atlantic (#35)
Posted by: Steve H.
Posted On 11:59AM 13-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

We will have Gordon later today. Where it goes still TBD, but someone's going to get it, and it could be rather strong. The wave approaching the windwards is actually looking better now than it did this morning. Again, the focus shouldn't be on the convection, as it had none this morning, with the LLCC well west of the cloud cover. It seem's to be rebuilding convection again, and should be in an area more favorable for development. Don't write this one off, it may just be getting it's act together as it has now passed the area of shear to the north. I expect this to develop if upper level conditions stay favorable as they are forecast to. But the focus now should be on the Caribbean, as I see the potential for strong development later today and thru the next 84 hours. CHeers!!
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