CFHC Talkback For News Story #98:
Newest Talkback: 11:13 AM 09-16 EDT

Florence, Gordon & TD#12
10:55 PM EDT - 15 September 2000

5 am Update

Gordon still a Tropical Storm as of 5am, although we all are pretty sure it will become a Hurricane and it WILL make landfall somewhere on the Gulf coast. There are still a few important questions. How strong will Gordon get before landfall and what city/town is the target.  Hurricane watch still in effect on Florida's west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the Suwanee River.  All folks from Louisianna southward should closley montitor Gordon. The orange background means Florida is under a Hurricane Watch. When it becomes a Hurricane Warning it will be RED.

  Original 11 pm update

Newly formed Tropical Storm Gordon now in the Gulf.  Still up in the air in which direction he will head.  I favor more of an east north east track than the current track of the National Hurricane Center.  It all has to do with the speed of forward motion. Looks like the upper half of the west coast of Florida needs to keep a close eye on Gordon.  Keep in mind that this is just my prediction for now.  Things could change as we all know.  This year has been a extremely hard  hurricane season to forecast. Hurricane Watch in effect for portions of the west coast of Floirda FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER 

Florence still a Tropical Storm heading in the general direction of Bermuda.  Hurricane Watch in effect for the Island of Bermuda.  Florence still has the potential to become a hurricane again, so folks on the Island start preparing.

Tropical Depression #12 heading towards the Caribbean Islands some strengthening is forecasted and this is another system we need to keep an eye on. Could this be Helne??  

Comments or Questions? Everyone is invited to use it. Use the comment button by the story Headline.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Map with nearly all model projected tracks plotted for TD#11. From Michael Bryson.

Crown Weather Services Tropical Update (Includes Map with multiple forecast model tracks)
Snonut's Hurricane Reports

Satellite images at: [N.A. visible] (visible -- Daytime Only) [N.A. infrared] (infrared), and [N.A. water vapor] (water vapor)--Nasa source.

A nice animated Water Vapor Image
Ocean Surface Winds Derived from the SeaWinds Scatterometer (Experimental) has reports from folks in the Caribbean islands themselves and is worth checking out when storms approach the Caribbean. Français -- L'information sur des ouragans comprenant beaucoup de liens. Español -- Gran información sobre huracanes aquí.

Some Forecast models: (NGM, AVN, MRF, ECMWF, ETA)
DoD weather models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

- [jc]

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Displaying Talkbacks #8 - #28 (of 28 total)

gordon (#8)
Posted by:
gary Location: jacksonville
Posted On 06:31AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYSNQXV*)

Its so funny, most people around here have been taking the attitude " o well its hiting the west coast we shouldn't worry" what they fail to realize is the soon to be hurricane is still going to be strong enough to do lots of damage.
The weather forcasters are partially to blame though, because they have said all week that the storm would miss florida. I bet they wish they could take those statements back. Hey west coast watch out, its a coming.........

Gordon + Cold Front (#9)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 08:17AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

I just don't see Gordon going through the cold front which is drapped across nothern Florida. It will have to make the turn east. Just my prediction. The NHC has a more north track I bet it will shift more south by this evening. What do you think?

Another possibility.... (#10)
Posted by: Jim Mogle Location: Kissimmee
Posted On 08:22AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNUNTRNVW*)

is that Gordon waits out the front and sits in the Gulf a little longer getting stronger before he finally makes landfall somewhere.

Absolutely (#11)
Posted by:
Jim F. ( Location: Ft. Lauderdale
Posted On 08:24AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPXNVQNQQUNRRP*)

Once again, their forecast just doesn't make sense when considering the laws of nature. They have been completely wrong so far and really dating back to Irene the track record has been awful. I see no reason to start taking their word for it until they put a string of correct calls together. you can clearly see the push from the north so do they think this sytem is going to blow right through it..doubtful.

John C (#12)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:24AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUT*)

I agree...still, the forecasters are playing this down and going with the official track...they haven't even mentioned the eddy (maybe they don't want to scare the crap out of everyone)so I still believe we need to very careful in watching this...remember how many times they have switched tracks to the left or right. Keep that in mind also. As for them changing to the north track, watch for this system to take the path of least the ene.

Scott, what is your thinking on this system?


Warm Water Eddy (#13)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 08:33AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQVNQXS*)

Forecasters are probably not mentioning this because of how the season has been so far. I'm sure if they were to say "major hurricane" and it didn't happen they would really have egg on their face, the same egg they are still wiping off after the Debby fiasco--Fool me once...LOL.

Aircraft Recon (#14)
Posted by:
Colleen Location: Lakeland, Florida
Posted On 08:33AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNQXXNQYRNQUT*)

I will have more faith in the track when recon comes back....I am not buying the official forecast at this time. Is there any historical reason I should? NO.

Look at the differences in the projected track over the last 24 hours...why would I be surprised if it changed again? I won't be. At all.


8am advisory (#15)
Posted by:
Posted On 08:33AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPYNRVNQSTNQWR*)

8am advisory position is 3 degrees more to east than 5am position. also latest satellite photos show llc getting closer to main area. and photos show move more to ne than 5am.

agree (#16)
Posted by: William Location: Crystal River, Fl.
Posted On 08:35AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPUNRTUNVQNQWQ*)

I personally dont see how its going to bull its way throuth the cold front hsanging over the pan handle either. I believe we will see a more n.e. to e.n.e turn later also!!!!

Stall (#17)
Posted by: clyde
Posted On 08:45AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RPWNVYNQQVNQXS*)

Is there any chance that the storm could stall as the first trough pulls out? Or will it definitely get picked up by the trough and moved east and north?

Eye.. (#18)
Posted by: Tom
Posted On 09:21AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QSRNRRXNWPNQX*)

Is that hole in the convertion, that has been there for the last couple of hours, a forming eye. It appears that it is definitely on a North-east course. Any opinions

NHC says that Storm Track May be Adjusted further to EAST (#19)
Posted On 10:04AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNWXNRRUNQV*)

I heard that the NHC may be adjusting the storm track further to east... Stay Tuned.. And where is everybody today.. No one is posting

Update at 11 am eastern (#20)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 10:07AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

There will be a news update at 11 am if you want to wait to post a comment.

Weather Report (#21)
Posted by: Mark Ruck Location: Ft Myers Florida
Posted On 10:17AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QRNWWNQSSNQTY*)

Hello All,
I am actually in Cape Coral which is along the coast west of Ft Myers. I have had light rain most of the mourning winds still very light. Dewpoint is 77 very humid. Latest satellite pictures to me show Gorden moving northeast towards my back yard. I expect this afternoon weather here will begin to fall apart as winds increase and rain increases as well. I will continue to report as long as I can.....

Mark Ruck (#22)
Posted by:
John C. ( Location: Cocoa, FL
Posted On 10:22AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RTNRWNRRTNXY*)

Thanks Mark, keep us informed. Hope all goes well your way!

Storm Track (#23)
Posted by: Richie Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Posted On 10:36AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNRPWNUW*)

I'm still sticking with my track from yesterday of Naples, Ft.Myers, Sarasota area (SW Florida). Can't see it going to the big bend or panhandle area.

more east (#24)
Posted by:
troy Location: titusville,fl
Posted On 10:42AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNRTNQQSNQPR*)

I am in thinking with john c and coleen about a more easterly component to the storm than the nn-e that is being stated currently.

visible and the infra red enhanced appear to show this as wel. that and the front will be to strong to let it through.

we'll see if we get an adjusted direction at 11 am.

Lots of rain already (#25)
Posted by: mike Location: Clearwater Beach
Posted On 10:45AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (VSNQWNRTYNTQ*)

I don't have an exact estimate but I guess we've rec'd at least an inch so far with some pretty gusty winds. I agree, it looks like it is coming towards our backyard.

Gordon (#26)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.Petersburg
Posted On 10:48AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNSS*)

The report from hear in St.Pete at 10:40 is Heavy
to Mod rain. light winds.I can't see how the storm
is going towards the big bend.This looks like its
heading between Tampa and Fort Myers.I think they
will move the track back to the right or at least they should.I'll continue to report from St.Pete.

Weather Report (#27)
Posted by: Joe Location: St.petersburg
Posted On 10:53AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (RQVNSNQXRNSS*)

Rain so far for Today-0.56

indian rock beach (#28)
Posted by: nick
Posted On 11:13AM 16-Sep-2000 with id (QURNQVSNQYWNQXY*)

light wind, moderate rain from indian rocks beach at 11:07 am

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