Thu Sep 23 2004 11:14 AM
Steering Currents

4:40pm Update
5PM Advisories are coming in and the forecast track has shifted a little westward. More to come soon.

3:30pm Update
The Northwestern Bahamas are now under a hurricane watch.

Original Update:

Hurricane Jeanne and Tropical Storm Ivan are the areas of most concern right now.

With Jeanne there is both good and bad news. The bad news is that the steering currents are still weak, and the forecast still makes Florida a target... and we should definitely watch it here in Florida. The slow movement, however, puts a lot of question marks on where exactly it may go.

I know many will be watching its wobbles wondering if it is a trend or not, persistance is the key doing that. Don't read too much into it until a definite movement overal a few hours has occured.

(Thanks Skeetobite)

The National Hurricane Center has moved the forecast track a bit left again and I don't see any reason to doubt it other than the general slow movement of the storm. Since it is moving so slowly things can change, so we all must watch it.

The current timeline is on Sunday if the track verifies.

The good news is that Jeanne probably won't be more than a category 2 storm at landfall, which is enough to cause problems similar to Frances. However, with all the uncertainty with the slow movement it would be prudent to heed warning and advisories that may come up. Prepare a bit and plan actions if Hurricane Watches or Warnings are set up on advice of local agencies.

Ivan has strengthened this morning to a 60MPH Tropical storm, but winds won't be Ivan Part ]['s claim to fame this time. More on Ivan later. Steering currents are weak for Ivan as well, so we may still not be done with Ivan even after it landfalls on the TX/LA coastline.

Lisa and Karl still are Fish Spinners, but the system behind Lisa will need to be watched later on.

More to come.

Event Related Links
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements

Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Ivan Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.

General Links

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

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