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| #1243574 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 420 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas tonight, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1600 Monday...Little change to the forecast with broad mid- level cyclone continuing to swirl over Eern CONUS, helping to funnel dry air from New England Sward. At the SFC, wedge of high pressure remains entrenched over the mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas, while offshore stalled front and attendant low pressure linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep northeasterly flow elevated across the region, especially for OBX where frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue. Shower threat will be predominantly confined offshore where instability will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and cooler air aloft in tandem with better moisture, but cannot rule out a brief shower or two bleeding along the coast. Another cool and partly clear evening in store as any lingering shower threat along the coast comes to an end. Guidance hints at a modest increase in moisture overnight, and would not be surprised to see some low stratus attempt to develop inland, but this threat looks to be confined further inland W of the I95 corridor. Lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, mid to upper 60s along the water. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/... As of 1600 Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the NECONUS moving little through tomorrow morning. Enhanced Sern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid- Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. With that said, there is a weak shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the SFC this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Have increased afternoon PoPs with a subtle uptick in moisture leading to PWATs getting back above an inch and some better, albeit meager, mid and upper level support with the S/W. CAMs suggest potential for light showers in the afternoon, but have opted to keep them below mentionable for now as these same CAMs were excited for today`s precip potential that hasn`t materialized as of the time of writing this. Temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Mon... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week Tuesday Night through the weekend...Medium to low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased late week as the low makes its closest point of approach. Will continue sc pops through the period, lower than climo. As strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer climo by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland late week into the first part of the weekend. Another front looks to push through the area late weekend and early next week, which will lead to enhanced precip chances. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 18z Tuesday/... As of 1330 Monday...VFR flight cats prevails across all TAF terminals this afternoon with some spotty MVFR cigs encroaching on the Outer Banks and DownEast Carteret in association with modestly deeper moisture pooled along a stalled front offshore. Breezy conditions yet again in the afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt inland, and up to 25 kt OBX. Isolated shower threat expected for coastal terminals, but TAF sites should remain dry. VFR holds steady overnight, although some guidance shows a slightly stronger signal for low stratus, especially across the coastal plain where moisture will be modestly deeper and winds calm. This morning`s 12Z model suite continued to keep this threat W of TAF sites, mainly W of the I95 corridor where the increase in moisture is more noticeable. Trends will continue to be monitored in future forecasts. Similar forecast for TUES with diurnal CU field developing my late morning and NEerly breezes, but not as strong as today. LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday/... As of 400 PM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each afternoon, with chances below climo. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 1600 Monday...Poor, but improving, boating conditions ongoing across area waters this afternoon as pressure gradient remains pinched between wedge of high pressure building in from the N and stalled front offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue with a few gusts as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This has kept seas elevated, currently at 5-7 feet across all coastal waters. Winds will subside gradually tonight, but still hover at around 20 kt sustained until Tuesday morning. Expect the breezy NE winds 10-20 kt to continue Tue with 5-6ft seas N of Ocracoke Inlet, 4-6ft over outer waters S of Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet, and 2-5ft for the sheltered waters of Onslow Bay. Seas continue to fall after sunset tomorrow. SCA headlines were adjusted for timing, and was able to drop Alligator River from the Nern Sounds SCA earlier than previously forecast. LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Friday/... As of 400 PM Mon...Gradient gradually easing Tue night into Wed. SCA conditions will continue for the coastal waters Tue evening, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to 5-15 kt Wed with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed through late week. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for AMZ156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ230- 231. && $$ |
| #1243573 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 317 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Breezy to gusty through tonight, especially along the coast north of Cape Canaveral; a HIGH risk of life-threatening rip currents and rough surf continue for Volusia and north Brevard beaches - Poor to hazardous marine conditions forecast through late tonight, mainly from Cape Canaveral northward - Elevated rain chances through Thursday, focused farther south by mid to late week; marginal risk of excessive rainfall leading to localized flooding && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Now-Tonight...A broad surface low can be seen on radar/satellite, rotating southward along the Space and Treasure Coasts this afternoon. This feature formed along a very slow moving frontal boundary, both of which are forecast to travel southward over the next 24-36 hours, effectively stalling across south Florida. Until then, breezy to gusty northeast winds, in response to a tightened pressure gradient around the surface low, will persist from Orlando/Titusville northward. The highest gusts are expected along the Volusia and northern Brevard coastline (i.e. Daytona Beach gusted to 36 mph just after 2 PM). Gusty conditions and building seas are making for rough surf and a HIGH risk of life- threatening rip currents at area beaches. It is advised to stay out of the surf through the remainder of today. South of the Cape, a moderate risk of rip currents is present. Lightning has been limited today, mainly to the Atlantic waters. Scattered showers have been persistent near and north of Orlando to Cape Canaveral but lower rain rates have kept rain totals largely under 0.75". Despite PW around 2", weaker lapse rates are preventing deep convective growth (evidenced by 15z XMR sounding). Thus, expect more of the same as showers rotate around the low pressure center through the evening. An isolated storm cannot be ruled out through mid evening, but occurrences will be far and few between. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will settle back into the 70s overnight, as isolated showers continue to move onshore and largely dissipate as they push farther inland. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall continues, so any moderate to briefly heavy bands of rain that persist over one location could produce localized flooding. Tuesday-Wednesday...With the surface front and attendant low near or just south of the area by midweek, higher rain chances will gradually transition southward. Still, sufficient moisture will remain draped over central Florida (including to the north of the front) with onshore flow persisting. Tuesday is anticipated to bring breezy conditions to the coast once again (not as gusty as today), accompanied by onshore moving showers and a few lightning storms. Surface flow weakens as the pressure gradient unwinds a bit Wednesday, but onshore-moving showers remain in the forecast. A higher concentration of moisture and 500mb energy will traverse south-central Florida, so areas from Lake Okeechobee and the Treasure Coast southward may be more favored for locally heavy rainfall by midweek. Temperatures inch upward both days, reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Thursday-Sunday...Thursday brings one last day of higher-than-normal rain chances, mainly across the southern third of the area, as mid level troughing lingers overhead. Weak 500mb riding returns late week into the weekend as comparably drier air moves over locations along/north of Interstate 4. Models try to reinvigorate the stalled boundary over south Florida and drift it north toward the Treasure Coast by Friday and Saturday. We will have to keep an eye on how this plays out, as it could locally boost rain chances south of Orlando this weekend. With lower rain chances forecast across the northern half of the area, maximum daytime temperatures climb to slightly above normal (low 90s) with peak heat indices reaching the low 100s Friday-Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Now-Tonight...A weak front and surface low will continue to drift south of the local waters tonight into Tuesday. Gusty winds, approaching Gale Force at times over the Volusia waters, will begin to slacken after midnight. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 4 AM for the Volusia waters, associated with Small Craft Exercise Caution for the Brevard waters. Seas up to 5-8 ft are expected north of Cape Canaveral. Scattered showers and a few lightning storms remain in the forecast and are likely to persist overnight. Tuesday-Friday (previous)...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid- week as deep moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine conditions (winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A meso low as seen on KMLB radar near KMLB should continue to shift slowly southward through the day. A frontal boundary will also sag southward through the day, reaching the southern Treasure Coast terminals later this afternoon, which will shift the winds NE. The pressure gradient has tightened over the area behind the low pressure system, increasing winds to 10-15KT with gusts 20-25 KT. MVFR CIGs from low stratus clouds as well as passing SHRA/TSRA are ongoing, and will continue through the afternoon. By tonight, the low/frontal boundary will be south of the local area. Mostly dry conditions are expected across inland terminals, with isolated showers still remaining possible along the coast, although coverage is not high enough at this time to include VC wording overnight. Have introduced VCSH starting at 12Z along the coast and 16Z across the inland terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 75 87 / 50 60 20 50 MCO 75 88 74 90 / 30 60 10 60 MLB 77 88 76 88 / 40 70 30 60 VRB 75 89 75 90 / 40 70 40 70 LEE 74 88 74 89 / 20 50 10 50 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 ORL 75 88 74 89 / 30 60 10 60 FPR 74 90 74 90 / 40 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243572 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered light to moderate showers continue to move ashore into the northern Florida Atlantic coast on the north side of a weak surface low centered around the Space Coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers continue to move onshore along the Gulf coast in far south Florida and into the FL Keys as the broad counter-clockwise circulation around the surface low yields a more onshore flow further those areas. This surface low will gradually shift southward along the Atlantic coast through the remainder of the day with a large fetch of northeasterly flow in place between this feature and high pressure in New England, bringing enhanced moisture into much of the peninsula. As bands of showers and occasional storms rotate in the counter-clockwise fashion around the surface low as it drops southward to SEFL by this evening, increasing moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring increasing rain chances in a general NE-to-SW fashion through this evening across west central and southwest Florida. However, the more onshore nature of the flow around SWFL may favor higher rain chances a bit more inland but outflow boundaries and the proximity of a frontal boundary may also serve as a focus for some development. Regardless, mid level lapse rates are rather poor so would mainly expect deep convection chances to be minimal with most activity more likely to be low-topped in nature. The aforementioned surface low will shift further offshore on Tuesday as it shifts across the northern Bahamas with a large fetch of northeasterly flow continuing to bring bands of showers and occasional storms into the east coast in the morning before rain chances increase to the west later in the day. This should result in similar weather conditions tomorrow compared to today with rain chances generally increasing from northeast to southwest, but it appears the main difference will be the northeasterly flow will not be quite as strong with the pressure gradient relaxing just enough as the low pulls further offshore. As a result, this may allow for the Gulf sea breeze to push inland just enough to add a bit more surface convergence tomorrow to support some deeper convection later in the day, though mid level lapse remain poor so this potential should still be limited. Should any deeper convection materialize, the deep moisture in place will also favor the possibility of locally heavy rainfall as PWATs will be around 2" or more especially for central and southern portions of the area so WPC has a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall in place for from just north of I-4 southward. The unsettled weather pattern continues mid to late week as the stationary frontal boundary remains in place across the southern Gulf waters and across south Florida with waves of low pressure riding along the boundary at times. Meanwhile, a potent upper level low drops into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into Thursday and this feature will allow troughing to persist across much of the Eastern US with westerly flow aloft remaining across Florida. As deep moisture remains in place from I-4 southward, daily rain chances will continue but the pressure gradient continues to weaken later in the week so the sea breeze should be able to spread more inland, though overall coverage should be less across the Nature Coast as drier air spreads just south enough into some of our northern zones. The persistent Eastern US trough finally then starts to shift out of the area as mid level ridging builds in from the Atlantic for the weekend. As this occurs, the aforementioned strong upper low around the Great Lakes carves out a strong cold front that is forecast to move offshore of much of the Eastern Seaboard by the weekend with front possibly dropping into northern Florida, though it may stall to the north of the state entirely. Thus, our area is expected to remain on the warm and humid side of this feature with daily rain chances continuing this weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will generally prevail for the remainder of the day but occasional SHRA may move through the area at times, which may cause brief VSBY restrictions at times mainly at northern terminals. Otherwise, the SHRA will taper off by this evening but low stratus may develop across portions of the area overnight with MVFR CIGs or worse into Tuesday morning. This appears most likely at KLAL but can`t rule it out elsewhere but this will gradually lift throughout the morning tomorrow. Otherwise, NE surface winds continue into Tuesday but a sea breeze may develop at coastal sites tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Breezy northeasterly winds will continue through tonight with conditions possibly approaching Small Craft Advisory for a brief period across the northern Gulf waters, though the duration looks rather limited so will maintain small craft exercise cautions conditions. NE winds should fall below 15 kts on Tuesday before weakening further into mid to late week as the pressure gradient relaxes. In addition, seas will also gradually subside throughout the week with 2-4 foot seas through tonight across northern marine waters before falling to 2 ft or less by Tuesday evening and will continue to gradually less into late week. Otherwise, daily chances for showers and storms will persist throughout the week with highest rain chances across central and southern Gulf waters at times as deeper moisture lingers in these areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers will push through the area this evening from the northeast as weak low pressure system south of Cape Canaveral shifts southward along the east coast. Northeasterly winds remain in place on Tuesday with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing across the east coast Tuesday morning and spreading inland towards the western side of the Florida peninsula later in the day. Some drier air starts to spread southward into portions of the Nature Coast by mid week but minimum RH values will remain well above critical levels as daily rain chances continue through the remainder of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 76 90 77 90 / 10 50 20 60 FMY 75 91 76 90 / 30 60 30 70 GIF 75 91 74 91 / 10 60 10 60 SRQ 74 90 74 88 / 20 50 30 60 BKV 71 89 71 90 / 10 40 10 50 SPG 76 88 76 87 / 20 50 30 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243571 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 234 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday into Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Quiet weather continues with similar conditions for Tuesday. Offshore low pressure will be pulling away from us tonight and moving off to the north through Tuesday. With ridging high pressure to our west this will make for a lingering overnight breeze and then breezy NE winds again Tuesday. Skies should be clear outside of afternoon cu, and a stray light shower may be possible at the coast later in the day. Highs in the lower 80s and lows near 60, cooler inland. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure to our north weakens early in the period while frontal boundary remains stalled well to our north. After a slightly cool Tuesday night temperatures will return to normal. Flow aloft remains cyclonic but the column will be far too dry to support much in the way of clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The large upper low in the Great Lakes will have another large low dive in from the west keeping the trough in place after a slight reconfiguration on Thursday, bringing the slightest chance of showers. On Friday another piece enters the trough but this one acts as a kicker. This allows a cold front to start approaching the area. This will bring a late week warmup as the prefrontal flow turns southerly. Dewpoints may rise enough to support isolated thunderstorms on mesoscale boundaries. The front will decelerate and could stall in the area over the weekend. With limited moisture flux ahead of the boundary this doesn`t mean a washed out weekend but it does represent the best rain chances of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR with a NE breeze ~5 kts overnight increasing to ~10 kts gusting ~20 kts after sunrise Tuesday. VFR afternoon cu will pop up again with some spotty high clouds but otherwise quiet. A stray, light shower could impact coastal terminals towards the end of the period, but mainly KMYR/KCRE. Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain chances could return Saturday with intermittent restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Small Craft conditions should end from SW to NE tonight as the low tracks further from the coast, the gradient relaxing some. NE winds will still be ~20 kts overnight, starting to come down to 15-20 through the day Tuesday. Seas 3-5 ft. Tuesday Night through Friday... The high pressure that had been located to our north for so long will finally weaken allowing for winds and seas to abate. Flow will also start to veer away from it`s unusual NE direction. SW flow then takes over late in the period as a cold front approaches from the NW. This boundary will be decelerating and so is not expected to push through the waters during the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: High risk for strong rip currents for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Breaking waves around 3 ft and the onshore swell direction today create conditions that favor the development of strong rip currents. A strong north to south longshore current will develop today along the beaches of Pender and New Hanover counties in North Carolina and along the beaches of Horry and Georgetown counties in South Carolina. The strong long shore current may limit the number of rip currents, however conditions will be conducive for the development of strong rip currents. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252. && $$ |
| #1243570 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 242 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late this week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. A stronger cold front crosses the area late Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Another night in the 50s away from the coast with diminishing winds. Afternoon wx analysis shows sfc high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes/New England ridging south toward the area. Deep troughing remains over the eastern CONUS, with an upper shortwave just offshore of NY/NJ moving northward on the east side of the trough. Very nice wx continues with partly cloudy skies, temperatures in the 70s, and dew pts in the 50s-lower 60s. Still a bit breezy from the NE near the coast with gusts to 20-25 mph due to the gradient between the high to our N/NE and weak low pressure offshore. It should remain mostly dry through tonight although there is a nonzero chc of a very brief light shower in far SE VA/NE NC between now-8 PM. Have seen a few light showers on radar this afternoon. Clouds thin out this evening with low temps falling back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be light with less cloud cover expected away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Monday... Key Message: - A slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore. There is a slight chance for showers near the coast on Tuesday, but confidence is low. - Isolated showers and storms are possible late Thursday, mainly across north and northwest portions of the area. The pleasant wx continues on Tuesday. Will note that a slightly more moist maritime airmass tries to push inland from the ocean, but likely struggles to make it much past the bay. There will be a weak, but noticeable gradient in theta-e across the area as a result. While Tuesday will be very similar to today in terms of temperatures, isolated showers are possible near the bay/coast. CAMs (especially the HRRR which has a few pockets of 0.50" QPFs) have trended upward a bit in terms of shower coverage tomorrow. Not that confident that we`ll actually see much of any precip, but added 20% PoPs to the forecast near the bay/coast to account for the possibility. Precip chances drop to near zero by sunset. Not quite as cool Tuesday night with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure shifts offshore and winds swing around to the E-SE. Afternoon highs are expected to mainly be in the low 80s with dew points in the mid 50s to lower 60s. 12z guidance remains in good agreement keeping the entire area dry Wednesday/Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s. Strong low pressure over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the mid 80s (lower 80s on the eastern shore) with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s area wide. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. - There is a slight chance for thunderstorms on Saturday. - Cooler/drier weather returns by Sunday/Monday. The chance for showers increases Thursday night, especially across the northern half of the area as the weakening front pushes toward the FA. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to perhaps a quarter inch of precip. There is very high confidence that the initial front washes out across the region with winds remaining S or SW into Saturday. As such, not expecting an airmass change or even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew points. Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the period ahead of a stronger front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture looks to be lacking with this front as well, but there is a slight chc for tstms Saturday aftn-late Saturday evening (highest E/SE). The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday/Monday. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/01 TAF period. SCT-BKN cumulus (3500-5000 ft AGL) will prevail through this evening before clouds thin out tonight. Tuesday will be similar to today with SCT-BKN cumulus from late morning-early evening. There is a 20% chc of showers at SBY/ORF/ECG during the day, but won`t mention any precip in the TAFs given PoPs/confidence are very low. Gusty NE winds (to ~20 kt) will continue near the coast through early evening before diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight. Lighter NE winds are expected on Tue. Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at RIC/SBY). && .MARINE... As of 240 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the coastal waters and the Mouth of the Chesapeake Bay today into Tuesday. - A period of elevated southerly winds is possible late Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night across the Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. - A High Risk for rip currents continues into Tuesday across the southern beaches with a Moderate Risk across the northern beaches. Afternoon sfc analysis depicted a weak area of low pressure located well offshore. Meanwhile, a strong area of high pressure was located across the Great Lakes and New England. The pressure gradient between the two features has resulted in elevated NE winds over the waters. Winds were 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt across the rivers and Ches Bay and 15-20 kt across the coastal waters and Currituck Sound. Given that sustained winds have dropped below 15-20 kt across the Ches Bay and Lower James River, have canceled the SCAs for most of these areas. The exception is the Mouth of the Ches Bay where 3-4 ft waves will continue to be possible into this evening. SCAs have also been cancelled across the MD coastal waters given seas below 5 ft. Otherwise, SCAs remain in effect until 7 PM this evening for the VA coastal waters between Chincoteague and Cape Charles Light and the Currituck Sound, 7 AM Tue for the VA coastal waters between Cape Charles Light and the VA/NC border, and 7 PM Tue for the NC coastal waters. High pressure remains in place through Wednesday, slowly building south with time. As such, expect NE winds to gradually diminish to 10-15 kt tonight and 5-10 kt by Tuesday evening. Winds remain light through early Thursday before becoming SE/S and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across mainly the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters ahead of an approaching cold front. Wind probs for 18 kt sustained winds were 45-65% across most of the Ches Bay and northern coastal waters with locally up to 80% probs across the upper bay. As such, SCAs may be needed for this surge. Will note that elevated winds will also overspread the rivers, however, confidence in SCA conditions over the rivers is lower than over the Ches Bay. Otherwise, winds remain generally sub-SCA through next weekend with a brief S surge to 15- 20 kt possible Fri evening. A series of weak cold fronts approach the local waters late this week into this weekend with the strongest front crossing the local waters Saturday night. Winds shift to N Saturday night, becoming NE Monday. A period of elevated NE winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt is possible Mon across the southern coastal waters, however, confidence is low at this time. Waves were 1-3 ft across most of the Ches Bay with 3-4 ft waves across the mouth of the Ches Bay this afternoon. Waves subside to 1- 2 ft Tuesday with 2-3 ft at the mouth of the Ches Bay. Meanwhile, seas were 4-5 ft this afternoon. Seas subside to ~4 ft Tue (apart from 4-5 ft across the NC coastal waters), likely remaining sub-SCA through next weekend. The rip current risk remains High for the southern beaches through Wed with a Moderate rip current risk across the northern beaches. Will note that the high rip current risk across the southern beaches on Wednesday is more marginal than today and Tuesday. Otherwise, a Moderate rip current risk is expected across all area beaches on Thursday. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1243569 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 126 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A very deep trough axis will continue to dominate the eastern half of the CONUS through the short term period. This will keep deep layer northwest flow in place across the Gulf South resulting in a continuation of the overall cooler and drier conditions experienced the past few days. A series of weak upper level disturbances and associated reinforcing frontal boundaries embedded within the deep layer northwest flow in the mid and upper levels will pass through the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although these features will have very little moisture to tap into, as noted by PWATS of only 1.5 to 1.6 inches, both the GFS and ECMWF show that enough forcing aloft from these disturbances will support low end chance PoPs during peak heating hours for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Any convective development will be weak and short-lived due to the limited moisture availability. The northwest flow regime will also keep temperatures a bit cooler than average by a degree or two. Highs will continue to climb to around 90 degrees each afternoon and lows will dip into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The lower humidity will also continue as drier air aloft mixes down to the surface each day. This will help to keep heat index values manageable in the mid to upper 90s each day. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The deep layer troughing in the mid and upper levels will persist through the entire forecast period. Within this northwest flow, a stronger upper level impulse and associated surface front will push through the Gulf South on Thursday. This stronger front will sweep well offshore and into the central Gulf by Thursday night. In the wake of this system, a strong surface high and ample negative vorticity in the upper levels will advect into the region. These two features will induce ample subsidence throughout the atmospheric column, and this will lead to significant drying and warming for the entire long term period through Sunday. The end result will be limited cloud development, low PoP of less than 20 percent, and warmer daytime highs. Highs will easily climb into the low to mid 90s each afternoon as the drier airmass quickly heats up in response to strong solar insolation from the clear skies. The diurnal range will be on the order of 25 to 30 degrees, so overnight lows will still dip into the lower 70s over inland areas and the mid 70s along the coast. The dry air will also help to keep heat index values in check with heat indices maxing out between 100 and 105 each day. The biggest change on Sunday will be a shift in the low level winds as the surface high over the area begins to pull to the east. Winds will turn southerly, and this will allow for seabreeze induced convection to return to the coastal portions of Louisiana by Sunday afternoon. However, dry conditions are expected to persist across the remainder of the region. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will be in place at all of the terminals through tomorrow afternoon as a drier and more stable airmass continues to reside over the area. Although a very isolated shower or thunderstorm may try to develop near MSY or HUM between 18z and 00z, the probabilities of development are too low to include in the forecast. If a storm does form near one of these terminals, short term amendments to the forecast will be made. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A slightly stronger pressure gradient over the northern Gulf along a stalled frontal boundary will persist through the evening hours before gradually easing tonight into tomorrow. Easterly winds of 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will continue to impact the open waters east of the Mississippi River over this period and small craft are urged to exercise caution due to the choppy conditions in place. Seas of 3 to 5 feet can be expected due to these winds and some swell. A strong reinforcing front will sweep through the waters on Thursday and will turn more northerly behind the front. Winds will also weaken to 10 knots or less and seas will fall to 2 feet or less by Thursday as a broad surface high becomes centered over the area. As drier air moves in from the north, it will bring an end to the scattered thunderstorm activity across the open Gulf waters that has been in place for the past several days as drier air moves in from the north. These drier conditions will be in place on Thursday and Friday. The surface high will then shift to the east over the weekend and winds will turn back to the southeast and south. These southerly winds will allow for deeper moisture to feed back into the coastal waters and scattered thunderstorm activity will become more common over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 89 67 90 / 10 20 10 30 BTR 72 91 70 91 / 10 20 10 20 ASD 70 89 69 90 / 10 20 10 20 MSY 77 89 75 90 / 10 30 10 20 GPT 72 87 70 88 / 0 20 10 10 PQL 70 87 68 89 / 0 10 10 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243568 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 222 PM AST Mon Sep 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Residents and visitors in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico can expect heat index values above 102 degrees Fahrenheit through much of the workweek, which could exacerbate heat- related illnesses and symptoms. * Beachgoers in the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will observe a low risk of rip currents through at least Saturday. * Strong afternoon thunderstorms will develop each day across portions of PR and in the form of streamers downwind from the USVI. * The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave near Africa, which has a low chance (10 percent) of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours and a moderate chance (50 percent) within the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Another warm day when the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico weather network detected heat index values mainly between 105 and 111 degrees Fahrenheit after mid-morning into the afternoon. Skies were mostly clear early in the morning, slowly turning partly cloudy to mostly cloudy at some locations, due to orographic effects and excessive heating. Afternoon convection developed downwind from St Croix into the surrounding waters and from La Sierra de Luquillo into the San Juan Metropolitan areas. Additionally, we noted thunderstorms developing along and west of the Cordillera Central. Winds were mainly from the east-southeast at 10 to 15 mph, with higher gusts and fluctuations due to sea breezes. The potential for strong afternoon convection is present in the region due to the proximity of a mid-to-upper-level trough, combined with local effects and diurnal heating. Thus, expect periods of downpours producing localized flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds through this evening for the western parts of PR. In contrast, the US Virgin Islands will experience a mixture of clouds and mostly clear skies, with a warm to hot rest of the afternoon, followed by above-normal overnight temperatures, accompanied by the arrival of some isolated, occasional showers. On Tuesday, a surface disturbance is expected to bring more frequent showers across the US Virgin Islands and eastern PR around sunrise and the morning of Tuesday. As it interacts with a mid-to-upper-level trough, we can expect the enhancement of afternoon convection, which could result in an elevated risk of flooding rains. Meanwhile, a similar weather pattern to today is likely to return on Wednesday. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM AST Mon Sep 1 2025/ The long term forecast starts with a variable pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At the surface, from Thursday through Friday, weather conditions will be dominated by high pressure over the central Atlantic, promoting an east- southeast wind flow across the region. This pattern will allow patches of tropical moisture with precipitable water values ranging from 1.70 to 1.90 inches to stream across the islands. As a result, variable conditions are expected during the mornings, followed by the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior and northwest Puerto Rico, where the combination of sea breeze convergence and daytime heating will enhance convective development. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. By late Friday and continuing into the weekend, an upper-level trough near 250 mb will increase instability across the region, favoring stronger convection with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and periods of heavy rainfall. As the weekend progresses, a tropical wave will further enhance the moisture field across the islands from Saturday into Sunday, resulting in more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Rainfall is expected to begin early in the morning hours on Saturday, becoming more active and widespread during the afternoon over much of Puerto Rico, with isolated thunderstorms likely elsewhere. This activity may lead to an increased risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in areas that experience the heaviest rainfall. By late Sunday into Monday, drier air is forecast to filter into the region as upper-level high pressure erodes the trough aloft. This will promote greater stability, warmer mid-level temperatures near 500 mb, and a noticeable reduction in shower frequency, with mainly localized afternoon showers expected over western Puerto Rico while the Virgin Islands experience fair weather conditions. && .AVIATION... (18z TAFs) Mostly VFR conds across all terminals, with possible VCSH over ISX and IST and VCTS for JSJ and JPS this aftn. -TSRA/+TSRA is likely for JBQ btwn 01/18-01/21z, with CIGs/VIS reducing and tempo MVFR/IFR conds. SE winds btwn 11 - 15 kt will continue through 01/23z, with gusts up to 20 - 22 kt over JSJ, JPS, and JBQ, reducing to 3 - 6 kt. Winds should increase to 10 - 15 kt by 02/12 - 02/14z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a surface trough will continue to result in moderate to locally fresh east to southeasterly winds across the local waters, producing moderate chops to localized choppy seas. Seas will remain up to 5 feet across the Atlantic offshore waters and even lower across the coastal waters. For the upcoming weekend, the arrival of a tropical wave is expected to increase the frequency of showers and thunderstorms, potentially resulting in localized hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... The risk of rip currents will remain low in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through at least Saturday. Be aware that thunderstorms may impact the western and northern regions of Puerto Rico through this evening. Although the overall risk of rip currents is expected to remain low during the forecast period, isolated but stronger rip currents may occur in specific areas, especially near piers, jetties, and channels. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ001>005-007- 008-010>013. VI...Heat Advisory until 5 PM AST this afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1243567 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 205 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions and risk for showers linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and drier weather returns next Sunday and Monday behind the cold front with slightly below normal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages: * Cool night with light winds. Decreasing cloud cover with some patchy late night fog possible Upper low over the mid Atlc region will lift northward tonight through New York. As it does high clouds will move north with partial clearing developing from the south tonight. With high pres in control and light winds radiational cooling will allow low temps to fall to 50-55 for most locations with some upper 40s in the coldest radiators, but upper 50s urban centers. Patchy radiation fog is possible in the normally prone locations. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Mostly sunny Tue with onshore flow and highs in the 70s * Another cool night Tue night with light winds Tuesday... Upper low and canopy of high clouds will be well to the north resulting in a mostly sunny day. There is some slight warming at 925 mb so highs should be 1-2 degrees warmer Tue with highs mid-upper 70s. But high pres from Maritimes to New Eng will maintain a low level NE flow which will keep temps coolest near the eastern MA coast. SE swell forecast is a bit less on Tue, around 3-4 ft over SE waters so opting not to issue a rip current statement. Highest risk for rip currents will be at Nantucket beaches where risk is in the moderate category. Tuesday night... A good radiational cooling night with high pres overhead with clear skies, light winds and dry airmass. Expect similar low temps 50-55, with mid-upper 40s in the colder radiators in western MA and interior eastern MA. Can`t rule out patchy late night fog developing. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry with seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. * Next chance for rainfall arrives by Friday with rain and a some embedded thunderstorms possible later in the day. * Front moves through by Sunday bringing slightly below normal temperatures for Sun/Mon. Deterministic/ensemble guidance show the extended period to be dominated by an upper ridge across the western CONUS and troughing across the east. Wednesday and Thursday are favored to be dry with a center of high pressure positioned offshore of southern New England. Wednesday 850mb temperatures warm up to around +10C and with sufficient mixing will help yield highs in the 70s. A few spots in the valleys may hit 80. SE flow will keep the south-facing coastal areas a touch cooler in the lower 70s. On Thursday, high pressure will weaken through the day in response to an upper level trough shifting eastward across the Great Lakes region. Thursday should still remain dry with temperatures in the 70s to around 80. An upper low center slowly moves across eastern Canada before lifting north Thursday through the first half of the weekend. Ensemble guidance keeps the associated trough and shortwave energy to the north and west of southern New England as it tracks closer to the northeast on Friday. Forcing will be more limited; however, there should be weak ascent and sufficient moisture to support rain Friday. There will be sufficient instability in place later Friday which may support embedded thunderstorms. Across ensemble guidance, the highest probabilities for rain amounts are in the 0.01-0.50" range with the best chances for the upper range in western parts of the region. With the potential for embedded thunderstorms and above normal moisture present, localized areas may receive high amounts of rainfall. We`ll be able to tap into more detail as we get closer.. Dry air/high pressure offshore and limited forcing may keep the Cape/Islands on the lower end of the rainfall range. Temperatures should range in the mid 70s to near 80 with higher humidity with breezy SW winds. Model guidance hints at another brief wave that may bring a secondary round of scattered light showers on Saturday. We still remain in the "warmer" airmass on Saturday which will support similar temperatures/humidity levels to Friday. A cold front will push through later Saturday into early Sunday bringing back cooler highs and lower humidity Sunday and Monday. Highs will likely range slightly below normal in the lower 70s and even some upper 60s in the higher terrain spots. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Tonight through Tuesday night...High confidence. VFR through the period. Patchy late night radiation fog possible tonight and Tue night at BAF, BDL and BED. NE winds 5-15 kt this afternoon becoming light to calm tonight. E- NE wind 5-15 kt Tue then light to calm again Tue night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low risk of late night patchy fog after 07z. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tue night...High confidence. E-NE winds averaging 5-15 kt through Tue becoming light and variable Tue night. Seas will remain below SCA thresholds, peaking around 4 ft over waters south and east of the Islands. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1243566 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 159 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Tonight: Very quiet conditions will continue as the pattern changes very little. Dry northeast flow will continue with high pressure centered across a large area from the east coast of Canada to New England. Temperatures will again be below normal, on the order of 5-6 degrees below normal, and we could again see a few spots dip into the upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure to the north remains the dominant surface feature through Thursday, with broad troughing aloft. As a coastal low remains well off to the south and some weak shortwaves passing through the trough aloft, areas near the coast may see some very scattered showers and very isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon hours, with probabilities right below 20%. Otherwise, expect a slow warming trend with highs in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, peaking into the mid 80s to lower 90s on Thursday as the surface high pressure to the north weakens. Overnight lows in the 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak surface high pressure builds across the southeast into the weekend, keeping temperatures on the warmer side of normal (now that we`re in September) in the lower to mid 90s. While Friday and Saturday are expected to remain dry, chances for diurnally driven scattered showers, perhaps even isolated thunderstorms if enough instability builds, return on Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold front. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Tuesday. Extended Aviation Forecast: Largely VFR conditions expected to continue, with next chance for MVFR cigs/vsbys returning Thursday afternoon with scattered showers/storms. && .MARINE... Tonight: Elevated northeast flow will continue across the local waters through the overnight. While wind speeds might diminish just a bit, we will continue to see at least 15-20 knots with occasional gusts up to around 25 knots. Seas will remain elevated as a result, but should diminish a bit by late tonight to become 3-5 feet across the nearshore waters and 5-6 feet across the outer waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect, though the nearshore waters are currently set to expire at midnight. Depending on how seas evolve this afternoon and evening, the Small Craft Advisory could need to be extended in time. Tuesday through Saturday: Northeast flow will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to the north, though the gradient and resultant wind speeds should remain below advisory thresholds. 4 to 5 ft seas on Tuesday lower to mainly 3 to 4 ft seas on Wednesday, though some 2 ft breakers should start to appear by the evening hours. The flow turns southerly late week into the weekend. Rip Currents: A High Risk of rip current remains in effect for all beaches through this evening. Moderate swell, enhanced onshore flow, and above average tidal range will result in a moderate risk on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent NE flow will maintain positive tidal anomalies of +1.0 to +1.4 ft through at least Wednesday. These could push tide levels at Charleston within a few tenths of a foot of minor flood stage during the afternoon high tides. A slight increase in the anomalies may result in flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243565 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Increasing (breezy/gusty) onshore flow and a building swell will lead to a HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents near Cape Canaveral northward. A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further as well, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. - Marine conditions have deteriorated over the local Volusia coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increasing to near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the Volusia waters. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Current...A weak area of low pressure has been observed just off of north Brevard County early this morning along a weak frontal boundary strewn across central FL. This feature was creating a tight pressure gradient across Volusia County with breezy/gusty NERLY winds. As the low moves onto the coast today the gusty onshore conditions are expected to continue. Will monitor in the event a Wind Advisory is necessary here. Today-Tonight...The aforementioned boundary will slowly sag southward through the period. Additional waves developing along this feature may enhance locally a continued heavy rainfall threat for some. Storm steering flow remains light, but suspect erratic movement will occur at times, esp surrounding the counter- clockwise circulation of the weak low. Relatively deep moisture (PWATs 1.80-2.00") continues across the area and ECFL remains outlooked by the WPC with a low-end Marginal Threat for Excessive Rainfall (locally). This remains especially true for areas that have already seen repeated rounds recently and for any future training echoes - should any develop. While confidence remains low, will also need to monitor for potential locally heavy rainfall potential along the coast again tonight - esp Cape southward. The pressure gradient remains rather tight near Melbourne northward today. As such, may see periods of breezy/gusty NE winds - highest along the coast, esp Volusia County. Not sold on a Windy Advisory (WI.Y) here just yet, but it bears watching as wind speeds are forecast to approach 20 mph this afternoon/early evening and we could see frequent gusts to 25-30 mph along the Volusia coast. A building swell will increase the rip current risk to HIGH today for Volusia/north Brevard counties with numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents expected, as well as for increasing ROUGH Surf. If you must enter the water today, swim near a life- guarded beach and never swim alone! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist for south Brevard and the Treasure Coast beaches. Much like previous days, evolution in convection remains uncertain with extensive cloud cover. We continue to carry slightly higher than normal rain chances (50-70pct). Average to slightly below normal temperatures continue today due to the clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon maxes will be in the M- U80s to around 90F. Muggy conditions continue overnight, with mins in the L-M70s and perhaps a few U70s along the coast. Tue-Sun...An onshore wind component will exist thru mid-week and the flow aloft remains mainly zonal as stronger shortwave energy stays northward, though we will see occasional impulses traverse the central peninsula embedded in the flow, which will aid to enhance diurnal convection. Deep moisture lingers into mid-week as PoP chances continue above normal (50-70pct) into Thu. Some drier air pushing into the area will reduce these numbers gradually Fri- Sun, esp our northern zones. Seasonally warm conditions return to the area during the extended, as peak heat indices north of 100F may also return Fri-Sun. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary across the local waters will continue to sag southward thru the period. A weak associated low pressure area just off the north Brevard coast is creating a rather tight pressure gradient across the Volusia waters. Have hoisted thru 02Z tonight a Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). Here, northeast winds near 20 kts with occasional gusts to Gale Force have been observed and may continue. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft. Small Craft should Exercise Caution across the Brevard waters today as seas build 4-6 ft (offshore) and 3-5 ft near shore. Winds may also approach 15-20 kts with higher gusts across the near shore (afternoon) and offshore Brevard waters. Presently for the Treasure Coast waters winds will increase to 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. A higher than normal coverage of showers and lightning storms will continue for the local waters through tonight. Tue-Fri...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid-week as deep moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine conditions (winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 141 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A meso low as seen on KMLB radar near KMLB should continue to shift slowly southward through the day. A frontal boundary will also sag southward through the day, reaching the southern Treasure Coast terminals later this afternoon, which will shift the winds NE. The pressure gradient has tightened over the area behind the low pressure system, increasing winds to 10-15KT with gusts 20-25 KT. MVFR CIGs from low stratus clouds as well as passing SHRA/TSRA are ongoing, and will continue through the afternoon. By tonight, the low/frontal boundary will be south of the local area. Mostly dry conditions are expected across inland terminals, with isolated showers still remaining possible along the coast, although coverage is not high enough at this time to include VC wording overnight. Have introduced VCSH starting at 12Z along the coast and 16Z across the inland terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 86 75 87 / 50 60 20 50 MCO 75 88 74 90 / 30 60 10 60 MLB 77 88 76 88 / 40 70 30 60 VRB 75 89 75 90 / 40 70 40 70 LEE 74 88 74 89 / 20 50 10 50 SFB 75 88 74 88 / 40 60 20 60 ORL 75 88 74 89 / 30 60 10 60 FPR 74 90 74 90 / 40 70 40 70 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243564 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 142 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 An early start to rain activity today as lines of showers have been streaming across the southern-most areas, mainly south of I-75. Latest high-res analyses depict a low pressure feature over the northern half of the peninsula, which seem to be associated with the lingering/decaying frontal boundary stretching across central Florida. The front is expected to continue pushing southward today, which will place the best chances for deeper/stronger convection over Collier, Broward, Miami-Dade and Mainland Monroe through the early afternoon hours. However, outflow boundaries from earlier storms and sea breeze circulations may produce additional convection over the rest of SoFlo at any given time. Storm motion will again be rather erratic as overall synoptic flow remains weak. Meanwhile, 18Z MFL sounding data shows deep moisture remaining over the area with max PWAT values above 2 inches, and model soundings showing similar trends. Latest WPC Outlook keeps the Atlantic metro areas under a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4), mainly with locally or isolated downpours. POPs will be in the 70- 80% range, with r estimated rainfall accumulations in the 2-3 inches range (isolated higher amounts possible) with the heaviest downpours, especially slow-moving cells. Therefore, main concern will again be potential for urban flooding over some of the Atlantic metro areas. Expect high temps in the upper 80s to low 90s before cloud cover increases, while lows will again dip into the low-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite and observational data early this morning show an surface boundary moving southward along the Florida peninsula, nearing the Lake Okeechobee region. This southward progression will help focus moisture transport across our area today. With this enhanced moisture profile and the boundary knocking at our door, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, especially in areas along and south of Alligator Alley. Guidance continues to indicate widespread rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. High-res models have struggled with representing this wet, splotchy pattern over the past couple of days, and continue to do so this morning, with much uncertainty remaining regarding the development of an Atlantic sea breeze, and ultimately how far south the boundary makes it today. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping the East Coast metro area of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. On Tuesday, similar conditions are expected as the boundary is forecast to become quasy-stationary over South Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches remain possible, with isolated higher amounts once again favoring southeast FL. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The period of unsettled weather will remain in place through much of the upcoming week as the frontal boundary stalls across South Florida and upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to support repeated rounds of rainfall each afternoon this week, with at least a marginal risk for localized flooding each day, particularly along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Generally light to moderate westerly wind continues through around 01Z, then L/V flow prevails overnight. SHRA activity may linger through around 00-01Z, with still chances of a thunderstorm in the vicinity of the terminals. Periods of sub-MVFR cigs/vis will again be possible Tuesday afternoon with developing showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail today across all local waters, with seas at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 93 78 91 / 40 70 50 90 West Kendall 76 92 76 91 / 40 70 50 90 Opa-Locka 77 93 77 92 / 40 70 50 90 Homestead 76 91 76 90 / 50 60 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 77 92 77 91 / 40 70 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 78 93 78 92 / 30 70 40 80 Pembroke Pines 77 94 77 93 / 30 70 40 80 West Palm Beach 77 92 76 91 / 30 70 40 80 Boca Raton 77 93 76 92 / 30 70 40 80 Naples 77 91 77 90 / 30 60 40 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243563 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1255 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Scattered to numerous storms, along with a threat of localized heavy rain will continue today. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place for most of the area. - Tranquil conditions are expected Wednesday into Friday as drier air filters into the region. - High temperatures will rise back into the mid 90s by mid-week. The drier air will lead to cooler temperatures at night, as lows gradually slide through the 70s and into the upper 60s inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening as diurnal heating and instability increases while PWs remain between 2.2-2.4 inches and the weak frontal boundary that pushed through yesterday meanders over the coastal waters. Locations near and south of I-10 will be more susceptible to shower and thunderstorm development today, although there is a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms everywhere else. With the amount of moisture in place from the surface to mid- levels, it will be of no surprise if stronger storms once again produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2-3 inches per hour. Also, the speed at which these storms move will be a significant factor regarding the potential for higher accumulations over a short time period (similar to what occurred yesterday). This could lead to flooding issues along roadways as well as low lying and poor drainage areas, in particular over the more urban regions that received good amounts of rainfall yesterday. Now, the good news is that our southern locations did not receive as much accumulations as other locations, thus, the soils are not yet saturated. However, we will need to keep an eye on storms that develop in and near the Houston metro area given that some roads and underpasses are quick to flood when high rainfall rates occur over a certain amount of time as witnessed yesterday afternoon. WPC has continued a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for today and tonight for all of Southeast TX except the Piney Woods region. Make sure to check the radar imagery and traffic conditions before you begin your commute this holiday weekend. Strong storms will be capable of also producing frequent lightning and gusty winds...make sure to have an alternative option for outdoors activities today. Remember, when thunder roars, head indoors and never cross flooded roadways. Conditions will improve tonight as diurnal heating and instability decreases and drier air begins to move into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. Some isolated showers may still occasionally affect the coastal locations during the overnight to early morning hours. On Tuesday, a weak mid-level shortwave will move across TX and could help fire up a few more showers and thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon. The most likely areas to see activity will be over areas south of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region given that the higher moisture will be closer to the coast. A drier weather pattern will begin Tuesday night as dry air continues to push towards the coast and the weak boundary continues further into the Gulf as a reinforcing front approaches our northern counties. Tranquil conditions will persist into the end of the work week. Rain chances are expected to return this weekend with the potential for another frontal boundary passing through Southeast TX. The high temperatures will mostly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s today and Tuesday. The highs will rise back into the mid 90s by Thursday and Friday. Temperatures may lower again this weekend, depending on rain and cloud coverage. As for the low temperatures, we are expecting those cooler nighttime temperatures Tuesday night into Thursday night with lows dipping into the upper 60s over areas north of I-10, the lower 70s over areas near and south of I-10, and the upper 70s along the coasts by Wednesday night. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Weak seabreeze trying to push inland is setting up a weak convergent zone and an area where we`ll see some continued shra/tstm development this afternoon. Further inland, lingering 2.1" PW`s (per GOES Total Precip product) and daytime heating is allowing for sct shra development. We could see a storm or two emerge there as well this afternoon. Most activity will diminish toward early evening with the loss of heating. Conditions will mainly be VFR, but localized heavy rain rates in the stronger cells will produce some visibility reductions and short lived MVFR cigs. Fairly quiet overnight, but cannot rule out some patchy fog at outlying/grassy locations considering the light winds. Probably see some sct shra redevelopment near the beaches and offshore toward morning. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The weak frontal boundary stalled over the coastal waters will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and will then push deeper into the Gulf Tuesday night. Strong winds, frequent lightning, and elevated seas may occur in and near stronger storms. Otherwise, light and variable winds with seas of 2 feet or less can be expected through next weekend. Drier conditions are expected mid-week into the end of the work week as a drier airmass moves into Southeast TX. Rain chances return next weekend. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 91 71 92 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 91 74 93 / 20 20 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 89 79 91 / 40 40 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243562 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 141 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Dry weather continues through Tuesday. Temperatures tonight dip into the 60s across the board; a few locations in Georgia may briefly dip into the upper 50s by sunrise Tuesday. Ample sunshine pushes temperatures into the middle to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon, or a few degrees below normal for early September. A strong 1029mb surface high over the Northeast continues to push cooler, drier air down the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge and into our area. Combine that with a weak surface low over Florida and a brisk northeasterly breeze keeps a "taste of fall" over the region through Tuesday. Forecast lows tonight are expected to be a solid 5 to 8 degrees below normal, but should remain above record lows that are in the upper 50s. Precipitable water values remain between 1.2" to 1.5" across much of the region outside of the Southeast Florida Big Bend, helping to keep us dry again Tuesday afternoon. So even though there`s an H5 shortwave sliding over the region Tuesday, raindrops will be extremely hard to come by with the best chance across the SE FL Big Bend. Forecast highs are expected to climb into the middle to upper 80s, or a few degrees below normal for early September. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The surface high currently over New England would have lifted further to the northeast while another high will be moving east over the Great Lakes region as we start this term. In the upper levels, troughing persists. Low pressure at the surface develops in the eastern-central Gulf and moves over the FL peninsula. The stationary boundary we`ve been talking about for days will remain there, keeping the higher rain chances to our south. By Wednesday, the low pressure in the Gulf (non-tropical) will shift eastward; taking the stationary boundary with it, and shifting our surface winds to be westerly. Our temperatures will increase slightly as we will have highs in the lower to mid 90s by the end of the week. A surface high will sweep south out of Canada by midweek into the northern Plains. Ahead of the high is a cold front that will approach the region by Friday. Forecast PWATs ahead of the front are around 1.5 inches. Along with low CAPE and low shear, we are not expecting much out of the front other than a northerly wind shift. A second cold front in the extended period may bring in some better rain chances if the PWATs can increase closer to 2 inches. Temperatures throughout the period will have afternoon highs in the low to mid-90s, warming through the week. With the increase in humidity dew points for this upcoming weekend, heat indices will be at or around 100 degrees for Friday and Saturday. These temperatures may lead to a minor to moderate risk for heat-related illness. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s warming to the low 70s by the end of the term. PoPs are generally limited to the coast and SE Big Bend for the period with about 30-40 percent chances through Thursday. There is a 30% chance and less afterwards heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty northeasterly breezes this afternoon become more light to moderate near sunset through the rest of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front to our south, northeast winds between these two features will persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week, winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary moves eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure anchored over the northeast will continue to provide northeasterly winds through mid-week before turning more southerly to southwesterly later in the week. MinRH values will drop to between 30-40% Tuesday afternoon with transport winds of 10 to 15mph out of the northeast and mixing heights nearing 5k ft. Transport winds are forecast to weaken by mid-week, but mixing heights are forecast to be at or above 6k ft. Rain chances remain less than 30 percent most of the work week with the highest chances across Florida. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Area rivers are in good shape with little to no rain expected for the next several days. There are no other hydrological concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 65 88 67 90 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 68 89 70 89 / 0 10 0 20 Dothan 62 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 62 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 64 88 65 90 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 69 90 69 90 / 0 20 10 30 Apalachicola 70 86 72 87 / 10 10 10 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243561 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing into Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Shower and thunderstorm chances will will gradually diminish tonight (20-50% chance) through Tuesday (15-40% chance) as a boundary sags across the area and drier air filters in from the north. Temperatures will creep back up into the low to mid 90s along the coast to the low 100s across the Brush Country. While it is September and we are all looking forward to Fall, it isn`t quite here yet. Remember to practice heat safety. Guidance continues to hint at another disturbance moving across the area this weekend, reintroducing rain chances back into the forecast. It is still a little early to get excited, but there is hope for at least a bit more rain coming up. We will have to keep watch on this. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing over portions of South Texas. These are likely to expand in coverage this afternoon so have included VCTS and TEMPO groups for thunderstorms at all terminals except LRD this afternoon/evening. Gusty winds and MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings are possible in and around any thunderstorms. Convection will wane overnight with the loss of daytime heating, though a low to medium chance of rain and thunderstorms will continue. && .MARINE... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds will develop tonight and continue through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 76 92 75 96 / 30 30 0 10 Victoria 73 94 70 97 / 40 10 0 0 Laredo 77 98 75 102 / 40 30 0 0 Alice 74 95 72 99 / 30 30 0 10 Rockport 77 92 77 94 / 50 20 0 0 Cotulla 76 98 74 101 / 30 10 0 0 Kingsville 74 93 73 97 / 40 30 0 10 Navy Corpus 79 89 80 91 / 40 30 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243560 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1242 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 -The Weather Prediction Center includes portions of Brooks, Jim Hogg, Starr and all of Zapata County within a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall through the rest of today and tonight. -Rain chances increase late tonight into tomorrow afternoon across all of deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. -Dry weather returns Wednesday and unsettled weather is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Throughout this evening and into tomorrow afternoon, precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected to rise to around 1.9-2.3 inches from north to south across deep south Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as a frontal boundary gradually drifts southward through the region, pushed by north-northwesterly mid-level flow. Associated forcing and convergence will aid in maintaining unsettled weather for this time frame. There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms continuing for several hours beyond sunset this evening, mainly west of US-281 across portions of the northern ranchlands (northwestern tip of Brooks and northern/western half of Jim Hogg counties) and the Rio Grande Plains (Starr and Zapata counties), where WPC indicates a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Probabilistic guidance continues to yield low confidence in rainfall amounts as forecast QPF varies significantly from as low as around 0.15-0.50 of an inch (NBM mean) to as much as 0.40-1.30 inches (NBM 90th percentile), with the greatest amounts across portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Considering the high PWAT values, any developing convection will be able to produce localized heavy rainfall, resulting in ponding of water on roadways and low-lying areas. Throughout tomorrow morning, probabilities increase across the entire region to a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain, highest along and east of I-69 E through late morning, increasing to a medium to likely (40-70%) chance by the afternoon and early evening hours, with the greatest chance along and east of US-281/I-69 C across the lower and middle Rio Grande Valley. Later in the evening and overnight tomorrow night, a surge of high pressure, resulting from an enhanced northerly jet over northern- central Texas, is expected to push the boundary south of the region, reducing PoP`s to less than 15% late tomorrow evening through Friday as mid-level ridging regains control, though isolated convection remains possible across SPI and the lower Rio Grande Valley Wednesday morning and afternoon. Unsettled weather is anticipated to return this upcoming weekend as a mid-level trough passes over the region, bringing a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain into the beginning of next week. Near average high temperatures are expected tomorrow (mid-to-upper 90`s) increasing to slightly above average further inland Wednesday through Friday (upper 90`s and lower 100`s) as sun clouds clear before gradually cooling to slightly below average over the weekend and into next Monday (low to mid 90`s) as clouds build and PoP`s rise. Mostly minor (level 1 of 4) heat risks tomorrow increase to mostly a mostly moderate (level 2 of 4) risk, with pockets of major (level 3 of 4) across the Rio Grande Valley, Wednesday through Saturday. Heat risks generally become mostly minor for Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms have been developing throughout this morning and early afternoon, already bringing rain and thunder to KBRO. Additional development is possible at KBRO this afternoon, but more likely at KHRL within the next few hours and possibly reaching KMFE by the late afternoon and early evening hours. Otherwise, light and variable winds are expected, potentially becoming a gentle 5-10 knot easterly breeze later this afternoon before becoming light and variable, or calm, again overnight tonight. Late tonight, chances of showers and thunderstorms return, continuing into tomorrow afternoon as a frontal boundary arrives. Any convection that develops has the potential for heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Favorable marine conditions hold as light and variable winds and slight (1-2 feet) seas continue, becoming gentle to moderate by Friday and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas over the weekend. Probabilities of showers and thunderstorms increase from north to south to a medium to high (40-70%) chance by tomorrow morning before decreasing throughout the afternoon and evening hours down to less than 15% chance tomorrow night, persisting through the daytime Friday as high pressure takes over. More unsettled weather is expected this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 95 78 95 / 30 60 30 20 HARLINGEN 75 95 73 98 / 40 60 10 10 MCALLEN 79 98 77 101 / 40 60 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 97 75 101 / 60 50 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 40 50 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 93 77 93 / 40 60 20 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243559 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1227 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft continues to prevail. This will help to keep the forecast primarily dry across the area through this coming weekend. An isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out Tuesday into Wednesday afternoons over far interior portions of southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama in association with a pair of shortwaves rounding the base of the trough each afternoon. Overall highs will remain seasonable in the middle to upper 80`s Tuesday, warming slightly to upper 80`s and lower 90`s through Thursday, warming again to lower to middle 90`s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 60`s tonight and Tuesday night. Middle to upper 60`s can be expected each night the rest of the week into the weekend, with lower 70`s along the immediate coast. A High risk of rip currents will continue for the rest of today, becoming a Moderate risk tonight through Tuesday night, then becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Easterly winds will stay elevated through the afternoon hours along the coast before turning northeasterly overnight. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A light to moderate easterly flow persists through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters tonight through Tuesday morning. No other marine impacts are expected outside of increased waves and seas in and around any thunderstorms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 89 67 90 69 91 71 92 / 10 20 10 20 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 70 88 70 88 72 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 Destin 70 88 72 87 73 88 75 89 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 10 Evergreen 62 90 63 91 66 93 68 94 / 10 0 10 10 10 10 0 0 Waynesboro 64 89 63 89 66 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 0 Camden 64 89 65 90 67 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 Crestview 63 89 65 90 67 90 69 92 / 0 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243558 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Local Nor`easter conditions will continue through tonight as low pressure along the frontal boundary off the FL East Coast slowly drifts southeastward along the frontal boundary towards the Northern Bahamas. The pressure gradient with the High Pressure over the Carolinas will weaken slightly and expect to be able to drop the Wind Advisory around 5 pm this afternoon along the NE FL beaches as peak wind gusts should remain below 40 mph tonight. Waves of showers and isolated/embedded storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters will continue to push onshore, mainly from St. Augustine southward to Flagler Beach and inland as Palatka at times with locally heavy rainfall threat mainly for Flagler county through tonight. Some isolated to widely scattered shower activity will be possible as far inland as the US 301 corridor across NE FL and even later tonight across coastal SE GA and the I-95 corridor there. Breezy winds over inland areas this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 mph overnight, while breezy to windy conditions will continue closer to the Atlantic Coast, especially at beachfront locations in the 15-25G35 mph range. Low temps will fall to below normal levels in the lower/middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/near 70F across inland NE FL, but remain closer to normal along the Atlantic Coastal Areas in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will remain to the north Tuesday, with area of low pressure along a frontal boundary over south FL. The gradient between these two features will result in gusty winds, especially along the coast. Drier air will advect into inland areas, keeping greatest precipitation chances highest near the coast. The troughing to the south will begin to weaken on Wednesday, as the high builds more toward the northeast. This will allow moisture to move a little further north, but inland SE GA may still remain dry. With the weaker gradient, winds will be less pronounced Wednesday, but will be still be a bit gusty at the coast. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the heat of the day, but convergence near the coast, could keep coastal showers going through the night. Temperatures will remain below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The trough lifts out Thursday, as high pressure begins to build from the northeast. A cold front will move into the southeastern US over the weekend, with frontal boundary stalling near the GA/FL line Sunday, before lifting out Sunday night. High pressure will build to the north Monday. Precipitation chances will largely be isolated to scattered through Sunday, with highest chances over coastal NE FL, where better moisture will be. With onshore flow Monday, the increase in moisture will result in higher precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal into the weekend. Due to the onshore flow, readings will be a little below normal near the coast on Monday, but near to above further inland. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 138 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Gusty NE winds at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots and MVFR CIGS will continue through sunset before winds diminish below 10 knots at GNV/VQQ, but continue in the 10-15G20-25 knot range at the other TAF sites. Potential for narrow rainbands with heavy rainfall to set up across SGJ terminal and have placed PROB30 group there in the 18-00Z and 00-06Z time frame for lower MVFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS for heavy SHRA at times. Otherwise other TAF sites should be rain-free until the end of the TAF period when rainfall chances increase slightly and VCSH has been added in the 12-18Z time frame at other terminals and PROB30 may need to be added at CRG in this time frame as well. NE winds increase back into the 12-15G18-25 knot range again late in the period with strongest winds still expected at the SGJ terminal. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low pressure centered along the east central Florida coast will shift slowly southward in tandem with a frontal boundary through tonight as strong high pressure over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through early Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories in place throughout our local waters today and tonight. Bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through midweek, as coastal troughing remains situated over our near shore waters. Northeasterly winds will gradually weaken on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to slowly subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Tuesday and Wednesday in the lingering onshore flow. High Surf advisory will remain in effect through tonight from JAX southward to Flagler Beach with surf/breakers of 5-7 ft. Surf/breakers linger in the 4-6 ft range on Tuesday and 3-5 ft range on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the strong Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 86 64 87 / 0 10 0 10 SSI 71 83 72 85 / 20 20 0 20 JAX 71 86 71 87 / 20 40 0 40 SGJ 75 86 74 87 / 60 60 10 50 GNV 70 88 69 90 / 20 40 0 40 OCF 71 88 71 89 / 20 40 10 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243557 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 133 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION, MARINE... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout our coastal waters through this evening. VCSH is included at EYW while MTH has VCTS for a small period of time when confidence of showers developing into thunderstorms. While showers and thunderstorms continue to form, exact impacts on the terminals will vary depending on locations and TEMPOs will be included if/when needed. Outside of convection, winds will be southwest to westerly at near 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, Somewhat unusual westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Another rainy day will open September across the Florida Keys. Numerous showers are visible on KAMX radar over the Florida Straits, scattered showers are seen on GOES-E day cloud phase imagery over the Outer Gulf, and the atmosphere shows no signs the pattern will break this afternoon or tonight. The rain gauge at the Key West International Airport measured 0.08" of rainfall from 1 AM to 9 AM this morning, and we are expecting more precipitation tonight. While it will be muggy at the surface with dew points in the mid to upper 70s across the island chain, debris cloud cover from nearby showers will keep temperatures moderated. Finally, the morning KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT near 2.25", above the daily 90th percentile value, for a second day in a row. Westerlies were sampled from the surface to 20 kft with northerlies aloft, which matched the movement of showers and debris cloud seen by KAMX. Overall, no changes are necessary to the inherited forecast. Breezes are freshening slightly across the nearshore waters and rainfall will be off and on this afternoon and tonight. Please keep watching the radar for updates. These patterns are vary chaotic and convective allowing models will change hourly. Remember to go inside near lightning, take precautions for rain, and stay safe near showers if you are out on the ocean. For better or worse, wet weather is likely to last until the weekend. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1933, a Hurricane moved west northwest through the Straits about 60 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.61" was recorded along with a peak sustained winds of 42 mph. Little damage was reported in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 92 81 91 / 50 60 50 50 Marathon 80 90 81 90 / 60 60 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243554 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 113 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Onshore flow leads to a few more clouds today with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Early morning analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered in southern Ontario but ridging south into the local area. Surface troughing off the SE CONUS has moved a bit farther offshore. An upper trough/closed low remains nearly stationary over the eastern CONUS. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some low stratus moving onshore across the OBX, generally south of the Albemarle Sound. Expecting another gorgeous day today with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and low humidity. Still a bit breezy from the NE today (especially near the coast) as the pressure gradient remains steep between high pressure to the north and the trough offshore. Expecting a bit more in the way of cumulus clouds today with continued onshore flow. A stray shower is possible near the coast in NE NC this afternoon but latest CAM guidance shows very little support for this scenario. Clouds thin out this evening with low temps falling back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be light with less cloud cover expected away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore. Continued dry and pleasant Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Not quite as cool overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure translates offshore and winds swing around the SE. Afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. 00z guidance is in good agreement keeping the entire area dry Wednesday and Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into early Friday as a weakening front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Thursday through Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers increases into Thursday night and early Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to perhaps a quarter inch of precip. 00z models show the front washing out across the region with winds remaining S or SW into Saturday. Accordingly, no longer expecting an airmass change or even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew points. Warmest day looks to be Saturday ahead of another front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture looks to be lacking with this front as well. The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 110 PM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/01 TAF period. SCT-BKN cumulus (3500-5000 ft AGL) will prevail through this evening before clouds thin out tonight. Tuesday will be similar to today with SCT-BKN cumulus from late morning-early evening. There is a 20% chc of showers at SBY/ORF/ECG during the day, but won`t mention any precip in the TAFs given PoPs/confidence are very low. Gusty NE winds (to ~20 kt) will continue near the coast through early evening before diminishing to 5-10 kt tonight. Lighter NE winds are expected on Tue. Outlook: VFR/dry from Tue night-Thu AM. There is a chc for isolated showers/tstms Thu evening-Thu night (highest PoPs at RIC/SBY). && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay today into Tuesday. Early this morning, weak low pressure is located well offshore. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure continues to build from the north. The pressure gradient between the two features has resulted increased NE winds over the waters. Latest observations show NE winds around 15 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots over the southern half of the waters and 10 to 15 knots further north. Seas/waves also continue to build, with 5 to 6 ft (locally up to 7 ft) seas south and 3 to 5 ft north. Waves in the bay range from 2 to 3 ft (3 to 4 ft at the mouth). High pressure will remain in place into Wednesday. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward today into tonight. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, today into tonight. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters through today and into Tuesday. SCAs are also in effect for the Chesapeake Bay into this afternoon/evening. By this evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast for much of the remainder of the forecast period. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas today, with 4 to 6 ft seas forecast. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated into Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria later Tuesday. The rip current risk will is high for the southern beaches today, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1243553 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 110 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid conditions and risk for showers may linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and drier weather returns next Sunday as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 240 AM Update: Key Messages: * Filtered sunshine today with canopy of high clouds, but dry weather prevails. * Northeast winds near the coast keep temps along the eastern MA coast in the low 70s, with mid/upper 70s inland. Details: Good morning and welcome to the first day of meteorological autumn! The past few nights have felt a lot like early autumn, and current conditions are similar to those past few nights with temps in the 40s to lower/mid 50s. Broad high pressure centered in southern Ontario continues to supply a dry, low-PWAT airmass for most of New England. Meanwhile, considerable upper level moisture was being advected northward from a midlevel closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula, permitting an increasing cirrus canopy into Southern New England. This upper level low is forecast to progress northward and northwestward into NY through tonight, but high pressure will continue to dominate our weather. All that said, we`ll see a continued increasing canopy of mid to high clouds for today, but dry weather will continue. Northeast breezes to around 10 mph near the coast (up to around 15 mph Cape and Islands) can be expected today, with lighter northeast winds inland, and that onshore flow probably starts pretty early today. It may be a struggle for eastern MA/Cape and Islands to reach the low 70s with filtered sun and the onshore winds; otherwise further inland, highs in the mid to mid/upper 70s will again be the rule. For tonight, mid to high clouds will initially be in place, while gradually moving northeast through midnight. The only real question mark is if we can see patchy fog develop as northeast winds ease and better radiational cooling takes place. Still think it ends up being pretty patchy and we haven`t had that much in terms of coverage the last few days; dewpoints are a touch higher due to the onshore flow so there might be a little more fog/mist overnight but nothing widespread. Lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, with upper 50s Cape and Islands and towards Greater Boston. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 AM Update: Key Messages: * Mostly clear with onshore flow and temps in the 70s Tue, cooler near the coast. * Modest warming trend Wed with a light southwest wind and highs well into the 70s to low 80s. Details: Tuesday and Wednesday: Tranquil weather in this period as high pressure still remains in control. We`ll see another day of northeast winds on Tue, so temperatures on Tue should be similar to those today, maybe a degree or two milder. It`s borderline and looking at the last 24 hrs worth of wave height guidance I don`t think one is necessary, but later shifts could consider a rip current statement for Tue for the east- facing beaches over the Outer Cape and Nantucket with seas on the outer waters around 5 ft. Rip current risk is in the Moderate range for these beaches. Clear skies and light winds again favors strong radiational cooling with patchy fog in the river valleys with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. More subtle changes to the theme as we move into Wed, as high pressure will slip to our southeast and allow for a southerly flow to develop. This will bring warmer low level temps (850 mb temps around +10 to +11C) and mixed-out dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60, so a touch more humid but still tolerable. But another high and dry day with highs well into the 70s, with a few lower 80s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry Thurs with temps mid 70s to lower 80s. * A bit more humid on Fri as a frontal system moves through with showers and thunderstorms late Fri into early Sat. * Still rather mild and somewhat humid Sat but becoming cooler than normal for Sun and Mon. Details: High pressure still is maintained early Thurs but weakens through the day with increasing clouds ahead of a rather potent frontal system. So we`ll have one more dry day on Thurs before this frontal system moves through Southern New England on Fri. Rising humidity levels on Fri as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s; this added moisture combined with glancing QG dynamics favors wetting rains. EPS Ensemble 24 hr rains probs show solid (40 to 60%) probs of rains at or over a tenth of an inch, and lower (20-30%) probs of 24 hr rains over a half-inch. It looks like the best chance is over the interior higher terrain and less the further southeast one goes. While the frontal systems clears our area on Sat with some residual light showers over eastern New England, it looks like the post- frontal airmass will be slower to cool off. Thus may have another day of highs in the lower 80s with some humidity, before cooling off toward more seasonable levels for Sun and Mon. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update: Tonight through Tuesday night...High confidence. VFR through the period. Patchy late night radiation fog possible tonight and Tue night at BAF, BDL and BED. NE winds 5-15 kt this afternoon becoming light to calm tonight. E- NE wind 5-15 kt Tue then light to calm again Tue night. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Low risk of late night patchy fog after 07z. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday and Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overall high confidence. NE winds increase today to around 10-15 kt, higher on the southeast waters, which continue around 10-15 kt on Tue. Seas will be slowly building on the southeast outer waters to around 5 ft by early Tue, which has prompted issuance of a small craft advisory for Tue into 12z Wed for marginally high enough seas for the waters off Nantucket and the Outer Cape. Winds flip to SW around 10 kt on Wed, with seas less than 4 ft all waters. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255. && $$ |
| #1243552 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 101 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Regional radar imagery shows bands of light to occasional moderate showers streaming into the northern Florida Atlantic coast on the north side of a weak surface low centered around the Space Coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers continue to move onshore along the Gulf coast in south Florida as the broad counter-clockwide rotation around the surface low yields a more onshore flow further south. This surface low will gradually shift southward along the Atlantic coast today with a large fetch of northeasterly flow in place between this feature and high pressure in New England, bringing enhanced moisture into much of the central peninsula throughout the day. As bands of showers and occasional storms rotate in the counter-clockwise fashion around the surface low as it drops southward to SEFL by this evening, increasing moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring increasing rain chances in a general NE-to-SW fashion throughout the day across west central and southwest Florida. However, the more onshore nature of the flow around SWFL may favor higher rain chances a bit more inland but will need to monitor how the activity approaching from the north evolves as additional outflow boundaries and the proximity of a frontal boundary may also serve as a focus for some development. Regardless, mid level lapse rates are rather poor so would mainly expect deep convection chances to be minimal with most activity more likely to be low-topped in nature. Otherwise, highs to start off September will be right around climatological normals in the upper 80s to low 90s with any precipitation activity that develops generally fading by around late evening as daytime heating diminishes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between 1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula. Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will generally prevail for the remainder of the day but occasional SHRA may move through the area at times, which may cause brief VSBY restrictions at times mainly at northern terminals. Otherwise, the SHRA will taper off by this evening but low stratus may develop across portions of the area overnight with MVFR CIGs or worse into Tuesday morning. This appears most likely at KLAL but can`t rule it out elsewhere but this will gradually lift throughout the morning tomorrow. Otherwise, NE surface winds continue into Tuesday but a sea breeze may develop at coastal sites tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week, however shower and storm chances will continue through the week, particularly in the vicinity of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through the week with highest chances over the interior and west central and southwest FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 90 74 88 75 / 50 30 60 50 BKV 89 71 89 71 / 50 10 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243551 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Upper troughing remains persistent across the eastern CONUS with our forecast area residing on the backside of this trough and northwest flow aloft continues to prevail. This will help to keep the forecast primarily dry across the area through this coming weekend. An isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out Tuesday into Wednesday afternoons over far interior portions of southeast Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama in association with a pair of shortwaves rounding the base of the trough each afternoon. Overall highs will remain seasonable in the middle to upper 80`s Tuesday, warming slightly to upper 80`s and lower 90`s through Thursday, warming again to lower to middle 90`s by the end of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 60`s tonight and Tuesday night. Middle to upper 60`s can be expected each night the rest of the week into the weekend, with lower 70`s along the immediate coast. A High risk of rip currents will continue for the rest of today, becoming a Moderate risk tonight through Tuesday night, then becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1102 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A light to moderate easterly flow persists through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters tonight through Tuesday morning. No other marine impacts are expected outside of increased waves and seas in and around any thunderstorms. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 89 67 90 69 91 71 92 / 10 20 10 20 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 70 88 70 88 72 90 74 91 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 Destin 70 88 72 87 73 88 75 89 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 10 Evergreen 62 90 63 91 66 93 68 94 / 10 0 10 10 10 10 0 0 Waynesboro 64 89 63 89 66 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 0 Camden 64 89 65 90 67 90 68 91 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 Crestview 63 89 65 90 67 90 69 92 / 0 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243550 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 PM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Local Nor`easter conditions will continue through tonight as low pressure along the frontal boundary off the FL East Coast slowly drifts southeastward along the frontal boundary towards the Northern Bahamas. The pressure gradient with the High Pressure over the Carolinas will weaken slightly and expect to be able to drop the Wind Advisory around 5 pm this afternoon along the NE FL beaches as peak wind gusts should remain below 40 mph tonight. Waves of showers and isolated/embedded storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters will continue to push onshore, mainly from St. Augustine southward to Flagler Beach and inland as Palatka at times with locally heavy rainfall threat mainly for Flagler county through tonight. Some isolated to widely scattered shower activity will be possible as far inland as the US 301 corridor across NE FL and even later tonight across coastal SE GA and the I-95 corridor there. Breezy winds over inland areas this afternoon will diminish to 5-10 mph overnight, while breezy to windy conditions will continue closer to the Atlantic Coast, especially at beachfront locations in the 15-25G35 mph range. Low temps will fall to below normal levels in the lower/middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/near 70F across inland NE FL, but remain closer to normal along the Atlantic Coastal Areas in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will remain to the north Tuesday, with area of low pressure along a frontal boundary over south FL. The gradient between these two features will result in gusty winds, especially along the coast. Drier air will advect into inland areas, keeping greatest precipitation chances highest near the coast. The troughing to the south will begin to weaken on Wednesday, as the high builds more toward the northeast. This will allow moisture to move a little further north, but inland SE GA may still remain dry. With the weaker gradient, winds will be less pronounced Wednesday, but will be still be a bit gusty at the coast. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be during the heat of the day, but convergence near the coast, could keep coastal showers going through the night. Temperatures will remain below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The trough lifts out Thursday, as high pressure begins to build from the northeast. A cold front will move into the southeastern US over the weekend, with frontal boundary stalling near the GA/FL line Sunday, before lifting out Sunday night. High pressure will build to the north Monday. Precipitation chances will largely be isolated to scattered through Sunday, with highest chances over coastal NE FL, where better moisture will be. With onshore flow Monday, the increase in moisture will result in higher precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal into the weekend. Due to the onshore flow, readings will be a little below normal near the coast on Monday, but near to above further inland. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities was used this morning at SGJ. Confidence was too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots at the inland terminals early this morning will increase to around 15 knots and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 02Z Tuesday and continue through the overnight hours. Still too much low level winds Monday Night for any significant fog development. && .MARINE... Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low pressure centered along the east central Florida coast will shift slowly southward in tandem with a frontal boundary through tonight as strong high pressure over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through early Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories in place throughout our local waters today and tonight. Bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through midweek, as coastal troughing remains situated over our near shore waters. Northeasterly winds will gradually weaken on Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to slowly subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Tuesday and Wednesday in the lingering onshore flow. High Surf advisory will remain in effect through tonight from JAX southward to Flagler Beach with surf/breakers of 5-7 ft. Surf/breakers linger in the 4-6 ft range on Tuesday and 3-5 ft range on Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1213 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the strong Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 62 86 65 88 / 0 10 0 20 SSI 72 83 73 85 / 10 30 10 30 JAX 70 86 72 88 / 10 50 20 50 SGJ 74 85 74 87 / 40 60 30 60 GNV 70 88 70 90 / 10 40 20 50 OCF 71 88 72 89 / 10 50 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243548 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1056 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Late this morning: No change to the forecast thinking for today. Very quiet conditions will prevail with plenty of dry air and below normal temperatures. The 12z KCHS RAOB came in with a precipitable water value of 0.80" which should be a new observed minimum for 01/12z according to the SPC sounding climatology. High pressure will continue to ridge down the east side of the Appalachians with an elongated trough situated well offshore. This will drive elevated NNE to NE flow through the day, strongest through the early to mid afternoon hours. This flow pattern will keep seasonally dry air across the area and keep the forecast dry. Highs will top out mostly in the low 80s with a few mid 80s possible in southeast GA south of I_16. Such values will be on the order of 5 degrees below normal. Breezy conditions will impact much of the area, especially along the coast where gusts into the 20-25 mph range can be expected. Tonight: Very little change will occur in the overall pattern with high pressure persisting locally. Expect all areas to remain dry through the night. Light northeasterly winds under mostly clear skies should support overnight lows generally in the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast (warmest along the beaches). && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure to the north will gradually weaken Tuesday through Thursday. Relatively dry PWs will persist inland Tuesday and Wednesday before things start to moisten back up on Thursday. Temps will return to near normal by Thursday. Little in the way of convection is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers/tstms confined to coastal areas. Greater moisture and some upper shortwave energy may allow for scattered diurnal convection on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday and Saturday, then a cold front could move through Sunday morning. Above normal temperatures expected Friday and Saturday though there will be little forcing for convection. A few showers or tstms will be possible Sunday as the front drops into the area. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Tuesday. North/northeast wind gusts around 20 kt are likely at all terminals starting mid morning and should persist into late afternoon. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain enhanced across local waters between strengthening high pressure inland and low pressure offshore. The pattern will continue to support Small Craft Advisory level conditions across all waters outside the Charleston Harbor through this evening, before the pressure gradient begins to show signs of relaxing during the second half of the night. North/northeasterly winds gusting up to 25-30 kt will be common for a good portion of the day off the coast, but then will weaken late day and generally range between 15-20 kt during the night. Seas will be slower to respond once winds weaken, but will generally range in the 5-8 ft range this morning through the afternoon (largest across outer Georgia waters), before subsiding to 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across outer Georgia waters overnight. For this reason, Small Craft Advisories should eventually come down across nearshore waters around midnight tonight, then near daybreak across outer Georgia waters. NE flow will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to the north, however the gradient and thus wind speeds should remain below advisory thresholds. The flow turns southerly late week into the weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate swell, enhanced onshore flow, and above average tidal range will result in a high risk for rip currents today and a moderate risk on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent NE flow will maintain positive tidal anomalies of +1.0 to +1.4 ft through at least Wednesday. These could push tide levels at Charleston within a few tenths of a foot of minor flood stage during the afternoon high tides. A slight increase in the anomalies may result in flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ117- 119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243547 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:21 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1016 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Another rainy day will open September across the Florida Keys. Numerous showers are visible on KAMX radar over the Florida Straits, scattered showers are seen on GOES-E day cloud phase imagery over the Outer Gulf, and the atmosphere shows no signs the pattern will break this afternoon or tonight. The rain gauge at the Key West International Airport measured 0.08" of rainfall from 1 AM to 9 AM this morning, and we are expecting more precipitation tonight. While it will be muggy at the surface with dew points in the mid to upper 70s across the island chain, debris cloud cover from nearby showers will keep temperatures moderated. Finally, the morning KKEY sounding sampled an environmental PWAT near 2.25", above the daily 90th percentile value, for a second day in a row. Westerlies were sampled from the surface to 20 kft with northerlies aloft, which matched the movement of showers and debris cloud seen by KAMX. Overall, no changes are necessary to the inherited forecast. Breezes are freshening slightly across the nearshore waters and rainfall will be off and on this afternoon and tonight. Please keep watching the radar for updates. These patterns are vary chaotic and convective allowing models will change hourly. Remember to go inside near lightning, take precautions for rain, and stay safe near showers if you are out on the ocean. For better or worse, wet weather is likely to last until the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, Somewhat unusual westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout our coastal waters through the day into the afternoon. For the time being, VCSH is included at both EYW and MTH with VCTS introduced for a shorter period of time when confidence of showers developing into thunderstorms is higher. While showers and thunderstorms continue to form, exact impacts on the terminals will vary depending on locations and TEMPOs will be included if/when needed. Outside of convection, winds will be southwest to westerly at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1933, a Hurricane moved west northwest through the Straits about 60 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.61" was recorded along with a peak sustained winds of 42 mph. Little damage was reported in Key West. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243546 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 956 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Regional radar imagery shows bands of light to occasional moderate showers streaming into the northern Florida Atlantic coast on the north side of a weak surface low centered around the Space Coast. Meanwhile, scattered showers continue to move onshore along the Gulf coast in south Florida as the broad counter-clockwide rotation around the surface low yields a more onshore flow further south. This surface low will gradually shift southward along the Atlantic coast today with a large fetch of northeasterly flow in place between this feature and high pressure in New England, bringing enhanced moisture into much of the central peninsula throughout the day. As bands of showers and occasional storms rotate in the counter-clockwise fashion around the surface low as it drops southward to SEFL by this evening, increasing moisture combined with diurnal heating will bring increasing rain chances in a general NE-to-SW fashion throughout the day across west central and southwest Florida. However, the more onshore nature of the flow around SWFL may favor higher rain chances a bit more inland but will need to monitor how the activity approaching from the north evolves as additional outflow boundaries and the proximity of a frontal boundary may also serve as a focus for some development. Regardless, mid level lapse rates are rather poor so would mainly expect deep convection chances to be minimal with most activity more likely to be low-topped in nature. Otherwise, highs to start off September will be right around climatological normals in the upper 80s to low 90s with any precipitation activity that develops generally fading by around late evening as daytime heating diminishes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between 1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula. Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low CIGs at the start of the period will gradually lift by late morning but some restrictions may occur mainly at KLAL before improvements occur. VFR conditions are then generally expected area-wide for the remainder of the day but scattered TSRA is expected to move across portions of the region by late afternoon and evening with highest rain chances from 01/20Z-02/00Z. Thus, brief flight restrictions may occur particularly during heavier periods of precipitation but otherwise NE winds will be in place with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts possible later today, though winds will be more out of the NW direction in SWFL. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week, however shower and storm chances will continue through the week, particularly in the vicinity of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through the week with highest chances over the interior and west central and southwest FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 90 74 88 75 / 50 30 60 50 BKV 89 71 89 71 / 50 10 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243544 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 950 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 948 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The forecast is on track. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Little change is expected through tonight. In the grand scheme of our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start September. A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funneling down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10 will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Broad upper trough across the eastern third of the US will remain in place as one upper low over the northeast US weakens and moves northeast while a stronger upper low dives from Canada towards the northern Great Lakes. Northeast low level flow will continue with high pressure over the Appalachians and the pesky stationary boundary to our south. As a cold front advances into the upper midwest Wednesday, aforementioned high pressure gets shunted eastward as well as the stationary boundary gaining momentum to push northeast and away from the region. This will break the low level northeast flow and send a pair of cold fronts toward the Gulf coast as the upper low spins across the Great Lakes region and back into southern Canada; the first arriving Friday but with dry air in place the arrival will be of little fanfare. The second front is at the end of this forecast period and appears to slow as it reaches the Gulf coast. PWATs will be fairly low (1.1-1.3 inches) through midweek with continued northeast low level flow and drier air from the Appalachians. The seabreeze will be pinned closer to the coast and low rain chances there and the southeast Big Bend. Heading into later this week, the northeast flow clocks to more of a westerly component with PWATs slowly increasing but more mid level dry air keeping rain chances low. It may not be till later next weekend that we experience an increase in rain chances with the second front possibly stalling and PWATs jumping back towards 2 inches. Temperature-wise through the week highs will slowly tick up into the low to mid 90s by Saturday while lows will mainly be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR through the period. Northeast winds persist with some gustiness this afternoon at all sites up to 15-20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters through this morning in waters east of Apalachicola and this afternoon in waters west of Apalachicola. Additional advisories may be needed tonight into Tuesday morning as well. As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front to our south, northeast winds between these two features will persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week, winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary moves eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure to the north will promote northeast winds over the next few days as well as drier air. Transport winds this afternoon will range between 15 to 20 mph while slightly lower speeds into mid week. Mixing heights will range between 4000 to 6000 feet with afternoon humidities falling into the low to mid 40 percent range. High dispersions today will be located through most of the Florida districts as well as the Alabama wiregrass region. Rain chances through mid week will be located mainly near the coast and southeast Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Comparably drier conditions will continue this week by late August and early September standards. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts through next weekend will average an inch or less. Therefore, no flash or riverine flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 88 67 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 89 68 89 71 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 85 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 30 20 Apalachicola 87 71 85 73 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243543 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:42 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 937 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0935 Monday...No changes required for the morning update with the forecast tracking well. Previous Disco...Labor Day kicking off on a cool and clear note as broad mid-level cyclone continues to swirl over the eastern CONUS, helping to funnel dry air from New England southward. At the surface, wedge of high pressure remains entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, while offshore stalled frontal boundary and attendant low pressure linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep northeasterly flow elevated across the region, especially for OBX where frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue. Little change in the forecast today from yesterday as overall pattern remains stagnant. Highs will approach the low 80s in gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon. Shower threat will be predominantly confined offshore where instability will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and cooler air aloft in tandem with better moisture, but cannot rule out a brief shower or two bleeding along the coast. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out given modest instability of up to 500 J/kg. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Monday...Another cool and partly clear evening in store as any lingering shower threat along the coast comes to an end. Guidance hints at a modest increase in moisture overnight, and would not be surprised to see some low stratus attempt to develop inland. Lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, mid to upper 60s along the water. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Mon... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid-Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. Shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX. Wed through the weekend...Medium to low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased late week as the low makes its closest point of approach. Will continue sc pops through the period, lower than climo. As strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer climo by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland late week into the first part of the weekend. Another front looks to push through the area late weekend and early next week, which will lead to enhanced precip chances. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/... As of 710 AM Monday...VFR prevails across all TAF terminals this morning with some spotty MVFR cigs encroaching on the Outer Banks in association with modestly deeper moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary offshore. Mainly VFR expected through the period, although some lower clouds may result in brief periods of sub- MVFR early this morning. Breezy conditions yet again in the afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt inland, and up to 25 kt OBX. Isolated shower threat expected for coastal terminals, but TAF sites should remain dry. VFR holds steady overnight, although some guidance shows a slightly stronger signal for low stratus, especially across the coastal plain where moisture will be modestly deeper and winds calm. Trends will continue to be monitored in future forecasts, but for now given high uncertainty did not include in 12z issuance. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each afternoon, with chances below climo. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Labor Day/... As of 250 AM Monday... Poor boating conditions ongoing across area waters this morning as pressure gradient remains pinched between wedge of high pressure building in from the north and stalled frontal boundary offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue with a few gusts as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This has kept seas elevated, currently at 6-8 feet across Raleigh Bay and waters north, and closer to 5-7 for Onslow Bay. Winds will subside gradually today, but still hover at around 20 kt sustained. Seas will not respond much, perhaps falling by a foot but little more. Did make manual adjustments upward for forecast seas north of Cape Hatteras given NWPS chronic underestimation of NE wind swell. SCA headlines were not changed from the previous forecast, apart from some modest adjustments to end times across soundside waters based on model guidance trends. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Breezy NE winds 10-20 kt will continue Tue, with gradient grad easing Tue night into Wed. SCA conditions will continue for the coastal waters Tue and Tue evening, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to 5-15 kt Wed with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed through late week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 220 AM Mon...Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor coastal issues, mainly for portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally higher risk may develop. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196- 199-203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243542 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:06 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 755 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Upper ridging over the Rockies tonight. Upper troughs from the Canadian Maritime Provinces to Virginia, and over the Canadian Prairie Provinces with weak ridging in between. This is producing northwesterly mid-level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Going by surface winds, the frontal boundary is offshore, and so is any lingering convection this evening. Drying was noticeable on the LIX evening sounding with the precipitable water value at 1.56 inches, which was comparable to the values at JAN and SHV. That`s just above the 25th percentile climatologically locally. It was also noticeable in the afternoon dew points north of Interstate 10, where dew points dropped into the 60s, even as low as 62 at McComb. The northwesterly upper flow will continue across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the daytime hours Tuesday, and likely well beyond that point. The only real issue is timing of shortwaves moving through that upper flow, and whether there will be sufficient moisture and forcing to produce any more than isolated convection. Probably looking at no more than isolated coverage at any one time Monday during the day over lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. For the 12 hours as a whole, we might justify 30 percent or so at Houma, but that might be overstating things. Forcing may be a little better on Tuesday across even northern portions of the area, but anything much more than 30 percent PoPs doesn`t look justified for most of the area, as precipitable water values remain around 1.5 inches. While high temperatures look to remain around 90 degrees both days, humidity levels are expected to be lower than what we would normally associate with Labor Day weekend. Maximum apparent temperatures in the lower and middle 90s will seem fairly comfortable. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s are on tap for most of the area, with the possible exception of a few areas immediately downwind of Lake Pontchartrain that are likely to remain in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Troughing is expected to continue across the much of the eastern half of the country over the next week as ridging near Bermuda is blocking it from going much of anywhere. As shortwaves rotate through the mean trough axis over the Great Lakes, it may reorient the trough a bit from time to time, but the mid level flow over our area will remain northwesterly. With no prolonged periods of onshore low level flow, moisture levels are expected to remain near or below (mainly below) climatological norms for the first week of September, for the most part around 1.5 inches. Anything more than isolated convection for the second half of the week into next weekend will be a bit surprising. With the lowered moisture levels, that should allow temperatures to warm fairly efficiently, especially when surface winds are northerly. This should produce high temperatures in the lower 90s, and wouldn`t be surprised to see one or two spots in the mid 90s. Even so, with dew points in the 60s, or perhaps lower 70s, this wouldn`t produce oppressive heat index readings. Overnight lows could be near to slightly below normal next weekend. Some indications of even drier air feeding into the area by next Sunday and Monday (9/7-8) by both the operational GFS and ECMWF. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 754 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR through this taf cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Daily thunderstorms remain the main issue over the open coastal waters as a stalled front lingers just south of the local waters. Expect brief bursts of stronger winds and higher waves in and near storms. The boundary pushes farther into the Gulf today, with offshore flow holding through at least midweek. With northeasterly winds around 15 knots expected across portions of the eastern coastal waters anticipated during the daytime hours today, will raise Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for those waters, similar to yesterday, ending at 00z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 68 88 67 / 10 10 30 10 BTR 91 71 90 69 / 10 10 30 10 ASD 89 69 88 68 / 10 10 30 10 MSY 90 76 90 75 / 20 10 40 10 GPT 88 70 88 70 / 10 10 20 10 PQL 89 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243541 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 816 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 809 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Not much change to ongoing forecast as local Nor`Easter conditions will continue through tonight with low pressure just to the south of the region along the frontal boundary. Breezy NE winds inland and Windy conditions along the Atlantic beaches/coastal areas and will keep Wind Advisory in place for NE FL beaches from JAX southward to Flagler Beach with occasional peak wind gusts up to 40 mph at times, have added a high surf advisory for these beaches as well with reports of surf/breakers into the 5-7 ft range this morning that will continue through tonight. Max temps should still reach into the lower/middle 80s inland and around 80F along the Atlantic coast. Showers will continue to push onshore the NE FL coastline with heavy downpours at times, and will need to monitor if any of these convergent rain bands gets stuck in one place too long for localized flooding conditions, but probs too low for any Flood Watch issuance at this time. A few embedded storms possible in these rain bands, mostly over the coastal waters, but may develop onshore as well which could also contain gusty winds to 40 mph as well and more intense short term rainfall rates. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated near Cape Canaveral, with coastal troughing extending north of this feature over the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL. Meanwhile, the stationary frontal boundary that has persisted over our area during the past several days has been pushed southward to the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL by strong high pressure (1026 millibars) positioned across the eastern Great Lakes and New England that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...troughing over the eastern third of the nation has become cutoff over the Mid-Atlantic states as ridging building over the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes develops a blocking pattern. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier air mass continues to advect across inland locations, where PWATs range from around 1.2 inches for locations along the Altamaha / Ocmulgee / Alapaha Rivers in southeast GA to around 1.75 inches across north central FL. PWATs near early September climatology persist along the northeast FL coastal counties, where values were in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. A tight local pressure gradient persists locally in between the low pressure center near Cape Canaveral and surface ridging that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard, with strong low level northeasterly flow organizing bands of mostly low topped showers that extend from the offshore waters adjacent to southeast GA southwestward across the northeast FL waters, with these rain bands continuing to occasionally move onshore from the Jacksonville Beaches and points southward, with this activity extending inland to southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Fair skies and lighter northeast winds across inland southeast GA have allowed temperatures and dewpoints to fall to the mid and upper 60s as of 08Z, while temperatures remain in the 70s elsewhere, except around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints have fallen to the upper 60s all along the Interstate 10 corridor, while lower 70s prevail for north central and coastal northeast FL. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Strong high pressure over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. This surface ridge will push weak low pressure currently centered near Cape Canaveral slowly southward, in tandem with a persistent frontal boundary. This weather pattern will maintain a coastal trough over the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with a tight local pressure gradient keeping windy conditions going across coastal northeast FL through late this afternoon, where frequent gusts of 35-40 mph are expected. Breezy conditions will also continue across coastal southeast GA and will expand inland during the mid to late morning hours. Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will advect an unseasonably dry air mass across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where dewpoints will fall into the 50s this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will boost highs into the mid to upper 80s at most locations, which is still a few degrees below early September climatology. Bands of moderate to occasionally heavy showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to pivot onshore along the northeast FL coast today, mainly for locations south of Mayport, where moisture levels will remain closer to climatology. Rain bands through this evening will be more frequent for locations from St. Augustine southward, with these bands continuing to occasionally move inland across southern portions of the St. Johns River basin through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals, will remain possible across Flagler and southern portions of St. Johns Counties today and tonight, which could cause localized flooding, particularly at urban and normally flood prone, low lying coastal locations. Strong onshore winds and plenty of cloud cover will keep highs in the 80-85 degree range along the I-95 corridor, which is 4-8 degrees below early September climatology. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will begin to gradually weaken tonight as low pressure and the long-lived frontal boundary shift southward across south FL. Our local pressure gradient will begin to loosen, but breezy onshore winds will continue at coastal locations, with persistent coastal troughing continuing to generate occasional bands of low topped showers over the northeast FL waters that will occasionally move onshore across coastal locations in northeast FL, with showers also continuing to impact southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Lows tonight will fall to the low and mid 60s for inland southeast GA, with mid and upper 60s for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s for coastal locations and lower 70s for inland portions of north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will stretch south along the eastern coast of the CONUS, pushing the lingering frontal boundary toward southern FL. With high pressure building towards the area, relatively drier conditions will continue for much of the local area, limiting the amount of showers and storms across inland locations of SE GA and NE FL heading into midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will still be possible over north-central and coastal FL, where PWATs will remain slightly higher thanks to northeasterly onshore flow bringing in moist marine air. As showers and storms move onshore, periods of heavy rainfall along coastal NE FL could bring isolated Flash Flood risk for low-lying areas and urban areas, particularly along the I-95 corridor. Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s across the area, cooler temperatures along the coast as onshore flow brings in cooler marine air. Wednesday, slightly warmer temperatures with inland locations in upper 80s to lower 90s, coastal locations in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for inland SE GA and NE FL. Coastal locations and north-central FL will see slightly warmer lows, generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 By the back half of the upcoming week, the high pressure will shift off toward the north-northeast ahead of a dry cold front from the northwest, bringing about drier air to the local area. This will see precipitation chances trend downward relative to earlier half of the week. The weekend cold front is not expected to bring much in the way of a cool down, rather temperatures are expected to trend near to a bit above seasonal averages. Highs will be in the lower 90s by the end of the upcoming week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities was used this morning at SGJ. Confidence was too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots at the inland terminals early this morning will increase to around 15 knots and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 02Z Tuesday and continue through the overnight hours. Still too much low level winds Monday Night for any significant fog development. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low pressure centered along the east central Florida coast will shift slowly southward in tandem with a frontal boundary today as strong high pressure over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through early Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories in place throughout our local waters today and tonight. Seas will peak in the 6-9 foot range for the near shore and offshore waters north of St. Augustine today, with 5-8 foot seas south of St. Augustine. Speeds will diminish slightly to Caution levels of 15-20 knots tonight and Tuesday, with seas expected to fall to Caution levels of 4-6 feet by early Tuesday. Winds and seas will then fall below Caution levels by Tuesday night. Bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through midweek, as coastal troughing remains situated over our near shore waters. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Breaker heights today will peak just below High Surf criteria at the northeast FL beaches, where 5-6 foot values are expected, while breakers of 4-5 feet prevail at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf conditions will continue to promote a high rip current risk at all area beaches through Tuesday evening, with breakers falling slowly to the 4-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Tuesday and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches. Slowly subsiding surf may allow for the risk to be moderate by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY / COASTAL FLOODING... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will continue for coastal northeast FL and the St. Johns River basin today, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts remaining possible through Tuesday. Localized flooding will be possible wherever these heavier rain persist or "train" over the same locations, and the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a "Marginal" Risk (level 1 of 4) for flooding for these locations. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas around times of high tide on Tuesday and Wednesday, with water levels potentially peaking around 1.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). We will continue to monitor forecasts today for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory issuance for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 82 72 83 73 / 20 20 30 10 JAX 83 70 86 72 / 30 20 50 20 SGJ 84 74 85 74 / 70 50 60 30 GNV 87 70 88 70 / 30 20 40 20 OCF 86 71 88 72 / 50 20 50 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243540 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 659 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - One more day with scattered to numerous storms, along with a threat of localized heavy rain sticks with us for the holiday. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place for most of the area today. - More tranquil conditions are expected for mid-week as drier air filters into the region. Isolated showers and storms may still pester the coast on Tuesday, with storm development gradually be pushed out over the Gulf by Wednesday. - Of course, with fewer storms and clouds and without meaningfully cooler air moving in, high temperatures can also be expected to increase, with some highs creeping towards the middle 90s for Wednesday and Thursday. The drier air, though, will at least allow for cooler temperatures at night, as lows gradually slide through the 70s and into the upper 60s inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Even when we`re pretty confident that a holiday won`t give us an infamous flooding event, the atmosphere still wanted to give us a reminder of what it can do when things line up the wrong way. Given the moisture and instability present, we had some expectation that we could see localized flooding concerns emerge, and we did indeed see that. The biggest instance of this occurred in Houston, where 3-7 inches of rain fell in portions roughly near the South and East Loop prompting a flash flood warning, street flooding, and some water rescues. Fortunately, we did not significantly overperform expectations as less than 2 inches fell for most, area streams and bayous stayed within banks, keeping the most serious issues in more flood-prone spots. Going into the Labor Day holiday itself, we should see another day with scattered to numerous storms cropping up. Indeed, the truth is it`s not *truly* coming to an end tonight, but all storms overnight will be out over the Gulf. Look for potential showers to creep back onshore as early as the pre-dawn hours, but the window for the day`s storms to really flourish should hold off until the mid-day and afternoon. Now, the front we`ve been talking about so much is offshore over the Gulf now. However, the frontal surface aloft at, say, 925 or 850 mb is...not so much. On the bright side, this may temper gusty winds if storms are just a bit elevated, though winds have not really been so much a problem this weekend to begin with. One thing it won`t do is stop the rain from reaching the ground, and precipitable water values remain high. Northeastish winds at the surface help out some, but at this late hour we still have PWATs around/above 2 inches, and that doesn`t look to change a ton. HREF probabilities of PWATs above 2 inches remain near 100 percent from roughly I-10 coastward until late Monday night, and for much of our area north of I-10, HREF probs are still more likely than not that they are at/above two inches, as dry air filters in only slowly. But, since we are getting some erosion of the 90th percentile and up levels of precipitable water, I`d expect that the best potential for strong storms and big downpours will focus closer to the coast today. WPC still draws a marginal risk area for excessive rain all the way up to College Station and Huntsville. This does still seem appropriate with the slower drawdown of moisture, but there is surely a gradient in the underlying probability of excessive rain that is being hidden in that categorical outlook. One nice thing is that the coastal areas have generally been less hit by stronger storms so far this weekend, so they will be better poised to absorb the blows of any heavier downpours. If I were to highlight an area of locally higher concern, it may be in that area of Houston south of the Loop. This area is on the fringe of that "coastal" area with more potential for heavy rains - so while the probability of a big rainer isn`t the highest in the area, it`s high enough when balanced with the 3-7 inches of rain they just got, making them more susceptible to flooding. If they are able to dodge a strong storm, then no harm. I`ll be crossing my fingers for that, but crossed fingers ain`t a plan - so let`s all do our best to stay weather aware in that area today, and promised not to drive through water-covered roads of unknown depth! After Labor Day, things should start to get a little calmer. A deep eastern US trough will keep us in northwest flow, which isn`t always great, but with a mid-week reinforcing trough helping get even more dry air into the area, we should reach a point where it doesn`t matter so much. I`ve still got us down for some isolated to scattered convection on Tuesday as moisture levels draw down, but I finally have the confidence to go dry for everywhere but well offshore for the middle chunk of the week. Of course, the flip side of this is that the cooler temperatures we`ve gotten from the clouds and rain will also go away, with at least seasonably hot temperatures coming back for Wednesday and Thursday, plus some hotspots making runs for the middle 90s. At least the drier air should help make those temps feel a little less oppressive than typical, and also allow for things to get a little bit cooler than average at night. Finally, we`re still looking at another front at the end of the week, but wow...after having such optimism a few nights ago, I`ve all but lost the entirety of those good feelings (as a long-time pessimism-leaning realist, that`ll teach me). We are still looking at some appearance of unseasonably strong trough in the Southern Plains, but it`s now tied more to the barely-there reinforcing front and entirely out of the picture by late week. The Euro ensemble does still briefly bring some 10th percentile 850 temps across the Red River, but only for Tuesday night. By late week, both the EPS and NAEFS mean 850 temps are nowhere near those low probabilities, and now even some 90th percentile temps are emerging. So...yup...guess I did well to only hedge slightly against the NBM at the end of the week. At this point, I am now barely deviating from the deterministic NBM numbers, except to erase the not-actually-real Piney Woods hotspot it has. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 All sites at VFR currently. Expect VFR to prevail through the period. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again today, with the focus of activity mainly south of I-10 and towards the coast. Could see a few showers pop up north of I-10. Have left it as VCSH through the afternoon hours. May need to update if showers or thunderstorms move into the vicinity of terminals. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable with VFR conditions overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The remains of a stalled front will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Since expectations are that the better potential for storms today will be closer to the coast, these storms could impact the coastal waters as well, particularly the bays and nearshore Gulf. Winds outside of storms will generally be light and variable, while becoming erratic and gusty in and around any storms. Rain chances decrease significantly by the middle of the week, while winds and seas are expected to remain rather light/low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 72 92 70 / 30 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 89 74 92 74 / 50 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 89 80 / 50 30 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243539 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 808 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between 1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula. Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 805 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low CIGs at the start of the period will gradually lift by late morning but some restrictions may occur mainly at KLAL before improvements occur. VFR conditions are then generally expected area-wide for the remainder of the day but scattered TSRA is expected to move across portions of the region by late afternoon and evening with highest rain chances from 01/20Z-02/00Z. Thus, brief flight restrictions may occur particularly during heavier periods of precipitation but otherwise NE winds will be in place with occasional gusts of 15-20 kts possible later today, though winds will be more out of the NW direction in SWFL. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week, however shower and storm chances will continue through the week, particularly in the vicinity of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through the week with highest chances over the interior and west central and southwest FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 90 74 88 75 / 50 30 60 50 BKV 89 71 89 71 / 50 10 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243538 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 645 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through the week. The local area will be on the backside of the trough with a resultant northwest upper flow pattern. This will result in building high pressure across the area and associated continued dry conditions. A couple of shortwaves will rotate through the upper trough during the week with an isolated shower or storm possible, however most areas will remain dry as the deep moisture remains shunted well south over the Gulf. High temps will warm into the low 90s through the end of the week with lows also gradually increasing as well. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Tuesday, becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. /13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A light to moderate easterly flow becomes established this afternoon through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 89 67 89 67 90 69 91 71 / 10 10 20 10 20 10 10 0 Pensacola 89 70 88 70 88 72 90 74 / 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 Destin 88 70 88 72 87 73 88 75 / 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 10 Evergreen 89 62 90 63 91 66 93 68 / 10 10 0 10 10 10 10 0 Waynesboro 88 64 89 63 89 66 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 20 10 10 0 Camden 89 64 89 65 90 67 90 68 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 Crestview 88 63 89 65 90 67 90 69 / 10 0 10 10 20 10 10 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243536 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 733 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a large area of low pressure will attempt to become cutoff across the Mid-Atlantic states, supporting a dry westerly flow across the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to strengthen while building south into the local area, while broad troughing prevails offshore. The pattern will support dry conditions for all areas while north/northeasterly winds favor below normal temperatures despite ample sunshine. In general, high temps should range in the low-mid 80s, warmest across Southeast Georgia away from the beaches. These temps along with a fairly pinched pressure gradient across the local area should result in breezy conditions along the coastal corridor late morning and afternoon, with wind gusts peaking near 20-25 mph. Tonight: Very little change will occur in the overall pattern with high pressure persisting locally. Expect all areas to remain dry through the night. Light northeasterly winds under mostly clear skies should support overnight lows generally in the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast (warmest along the beaches). && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure to the north will gradually weaken Tuesday through Thursday. Relatively dry PWs will persist inland Tuesday and Wednesday before things start to moisten back up on Thursday. Temps will return to near normal by Thursday. Little in the way of convection is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers/tstms confined to coastal areas. Greater moisture and some upper shortwave energy may allow for scattered diurnal convection on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday and Saturday, then a cold front could move through Sunday morning. Above normal temperatures expected Friday and Saturday though there will be little forcing for convection. A few showers or tstms will be possible Sunday as the front drops into the area. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 12Z Tuesday. North/northeast wind gusts around 20 kt are likely at all terminals starting mid morning and should persist into late afternoon. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain enhanced across local waters between strengthening high pressure inland and low pressure offshore. The pattern will continue to support Small Craft Advisory level conditions across all waters outside the Charleston Harbor through this evening, before the pressure gradient begins to show signs of relaxing during the second half of the night. North/northeasterly winds gusting up to 25-30 kt will be common for a good portion of the day off the coast, but then will weaken late day and generally range between 15-20 kt during the night. Seas will be slower to respond once winds weaken, but will generally range in the 5-8 ft range this morning through the afternoon (largest across outer Georgia waters), before subsiding to 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across outer Georgia waters overnight. For this reason, Small Craft Advisories should eventually come down across nearshore waters around midnight tonight, then near daybreak across outer Georgia waters. NE flow will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to the north, however the gradient and thus wind speeds should remain below advisory thresholds. The flow turns southerly late week into the weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate swell, enhanced onshore flow, and above average tidal range will result in a high risk for rip currents today and a moderate risk on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent NE flow will maintain positive tidal anomalies of +1.0 to +1.4 ft through at least Wednesday. These could push tide levels at Charleston within a few tenths of a foot of minor flood stage during the afternoon high tides. A slight increase in the anomalies may result in flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243535 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 731 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite and observational data early this morning show an surface boundary moving southward along the Florida peninsula, nearing the Lake Okeechobee region. This southward progression will help focus moisture transport across our area today. With this enhanced moisture profile and the boundary knocking at our door, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, especially in areas along and south of Alligator Alley. Guidance continues to indicate widespread rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. High-res models have struggled with representing this wet, splotchy pattern over the past couple of days, and continue to do so this morning, with much uncertainty remaining regarding the development of an Atlantic sea breeze, and ultimately how far south the boundary makes it today. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping the East Coast metro area of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. On Tuesday, similar conditions are expected as the boundary is forecast to become quasy-stationary over South Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches remain possible, with isolated higher amounts once again favoring southeast FL. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The period of unsettled weather will remain in place through much of the upcoming week as the frontal boundary stalls across South Florida and upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to support repeated rounds of rainfall each afternoon this week, with at least a marginal risk for localized flooding each day, particularly along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 725 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light and variable winds will shift to a light westerly direction across the region today before a Atlantic sea-breeze develops but remains pinned along the immediate east coast. SHRA activity this morning will continue with TSRA becoming possible after 15Z. Uncertainty remains today regarding the coverage of SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon hours. Will maintain VCTS now but TEMPOs may be needed in additional updates if confidence in coverage increases. Winds at terminals may become erratic in and around SHRA/TSRA activity with bouts of sub-MVFR cigs/vis possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail today across all local waters, with seas at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 76 91 76 / 80 50 80 60 Opa-Locka 91 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Homestead 90 76 90 76 / 80 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Pembroke Pines 92 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Palm Beach 91 77 91 76 / 80 50 80 50 Boca Raton 91 76 93 76 / 80 50 80 60 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 80 40 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243533 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern on Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4 )Heat risk. -Rain chances increase on Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight portions of Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heat continues to be the a concern for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday. This will maintain a moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. With that said, a cold front begins to push southward into the CWA on Monday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-50%). Rainfall and cloud cover associated with the cold front could limit afternoon high temperatures, heat indices, and heat risk. WPC has portions of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for Monday into Monday night. The NBM 90th percentile is at around 1 to 1.5 inches and mean around 0.5 inch of rainfall for the marginal area, so confidence on the excessive rainfall is somewhat low. With the said, forecasted PWATs will be around 1.75 inches, which is above normal so any showers or thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to ponding of water, especially on roadways and low lying areas. The aforementioned cold front will move through the CWA Monday night, but lift back north across Deep South Texas on Tuesday. This will keep rain chances (50-70%) in the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms through Thursday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and the front finally pushes south of the region. POPs will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday through Friday. As we head into next weekend, we are still watching for the potential of another front pushing through or stalling across Deep South Texas that will increase rain chances and lower temperatures slightly for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Some isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary moves south through the region. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the period, brief reductions to MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibilities could occur with any convection that develops. Light southeasterly winds this morning are expected to become easterly this afternoon as the frontal boundary moves through the area, with wind speeds likely remaining around 10kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 feet. A frontal boundary will move through the waters off the lower Texas coast on Monday increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%). This could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 79 95 78 / 30 30 60 30 HARLINGEN 97 75 95 73 / 40 40 60 10 MCALLEN 101 79 98 77 / 30 40 60 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 97 75 / 20 60 50 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 30 40 50 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 93 77 / 30 40 60 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243532 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 710 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 230 AM Monday...Labor Day kicking off on a cool and clear note as broad mid-level cyclone continues to swirl over the eastern CONUS, helping to funnel dry air from New England southward. At the surface, wedge of high pressure remains entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, while offshore stalled frontal boundary and attendant low pressure linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep northeasterly flow elevated across the region, especially for OBX where frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue. Little change in the forecast today from yesterday as overall pattern remains stagnant. Highs will approach the low 80s in gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon. Shower threat will be predominantly confined offshore where instability will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and cooler air aloft in tandem with better moisture, but cannot rule out a brief shower or two bleeding along the coast. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out given modest instability of up to 500 J/kg. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Monday...Another cool and partly clear evening in store as any lingering shower threat along the coast comes to an end. Guidance hints at a modest increase in moisture overnight, and would not be surprised to see some low stratus attempt to develop inland. Lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, mid to upper 60s along the water. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Mon... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid-Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. Shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX. Wed through the weekend...Medium to low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased late week as the low makes its closest point of approach. Will continue sc pops through the period, lower than climo. As strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer climo by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland late week into the first part of the weekend. Another front looks to push through the area late weekend and early next week, which will lead to enhanced precip chances. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 12z Tuesday/... As of 710 AM Monday...VFR prevails across all TAF terminals this morning with some spotty MVFR cigs encroaching on the Outer Banks in association with modestly deeper moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary offshore. Mainly VFR expected through the period, although some lower clouds may result in brief periods of sub- MVFR early this morning. Breezy conditions yet again in the afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt inland, and up to 25 kt OBX. Isolated shower threat expected for coastal terminals, but TAF sites should remain dry. VFR holds steady overnight, although some guidance shows a slightly stronger signal for low stratus, especially across the coastal plain where moisture will be modestly deeper and winds calm. Trends will continue to be monitored in future forecasts, but for now given high uncertainty did not include in 12z issuance. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each afternoon, with chances below climo. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Labor Day/... As of 250 AM Monday... Poor boating conditions ongoing across area waters this morning as pressure gradient remains pinched between wedge of high pressure building in from the north and stalled frontal boundary offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue with a few gusts as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This has kept seas elevated, currently at 6-8 feet across Raleigh Bay and waters north, and closer to 5-7 for Onslow Bay. Winds will subside gradually today, but still hover at around 20 kt sustained. Seas will not respond much, perhaps falling by a foot but little more. Did make manual adjustments upward for forecast seas north of Cape Hatteras given NWPS chronic underestimation of NE wind swell. SCA headlines were not changed from the previous forecast, apart from some modest adjustments to end times across soundside waters based on model guidance trends. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Breezy NE winds 10-20 kt will continue Tue, with gradient grad easing Tue night into Wed. SCA conditions will continue for the coastal waters Tue and Tue evening, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to 5-15 kt Wed with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed through late week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 220 AM Mon...Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor coastal issues, mainly for portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally higher risk may develop. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243531 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today, continuing into Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the cards today, aided by forecast PWATs near 2 inches, the stalling of a weak frontal boundary, and periodic mid-level shortwaves passing overhead and providing additional lift. Similar to yesterday, storms will continue to focus along and east of the Coastal Plains through tonight, though some convection could extend farther west into the Brush Country today based on current CAM guidance. Current guidance is also unfortunately still split on the evolution of available moisture this far south. Additionally, CRP sounding PWATs have been measuring slightly lower than the model PWATs. NBM PoPs are still coming in too high for my liking given all this uncertainty, so lowered them a bit this forecast package. Rain chances do remain highest across the Coastal Plains (40-60%) and lower farther inland (20-40%). Given the forecast moisture and slow storm motions, localized flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across South Texas today and tonight. While today`s rainfall totals will generally range between 0.25-0.50 inches as indicated by ensemble 50th percentile 24-hour QPF guidance, localized pockets of higher totals are possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rain chances diminish late on Tuesday as the aforementioned boundary drifts southward and drier air filters into the region from the north. From midweek onward, a return to hotter and drier conditions is expected with highs climbing back into the mid-90s near the coast and near 100 inland by Wednesday and Thursday. Heat safety will once again become the primary concern through late week. There is some model guidance that suggests that another disturbance may try and move through the region this weekend, bringing with it additional low to medium chances (30-40%) for rain. However, this is almost a week from now, and more time will be needed to continue to monitor model trends in order to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and a few storms are noted in a broken line from around RAS to PEZ this morning, affecting areas between CRP/ALI and VCT. Expect an increase in coverage or convection through the afternoon hours. Convection should wane this evening as daytime heating ends. Some areas of reduces CIGS this morning, mainly at VCT to IFR. Expect CIGS to rise by mid-morning with predominant VFR conditions expected most of the day. MVFR CIGS and reduced VIS will be possible in and around showers and storms. Some storms this afternoon could produce gusty winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeast winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 0 Victoria 91 72 95 72 / 40 20 20 0 Laredo 98 77 98 75 / 40 50 30 10 Alice 94 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 0 Rockport 90 77 93 77 / 50 40 30 10 Cotulla 93 75 98 74 / 50 30 20 0 Kingsville 94 75 94 72 / 50 40 40 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243530 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 717 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated near Cape Canaveral, with coastal troughing extending north of this feature over the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL. Meanwhile, the stationary frontal boundary that has persisted over our area during the past several days has been pushed southward to the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL by strong high pressure (1026 millibars) positioned across the eastern Great Lakes and New England that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...troughing over the eastern third of the nation has become cutoff over the Mid-Atlantic states as ridging building over the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes develops a blocking pattern. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier air mass continues to advect across inland locations, where PWATs range from around 1.2 inches for locations along the Altamaha / Ocmulgee / Alapaha Rivers in southeast GA to around 1.75 inches across north central FL. PWATs near early September climatology persist along the northeast FL coastal counties, where values were in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. A tight local pressure gradient persists locally in between the low pressure center near Cape Canaveral and surface ridging that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard, with strong low level northeasterly flow organizing bands of mostly low topped showers that extend from the offshore waters adjacent to southeast GA southwestward across the northeast FL waters, with these rain bands continuing to occasionally move onshore from the Jacksonville Beaches and points southward, with this activity extending inland to southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Fair skies and lighter northeast winds across inland southeast GA have allowed temperatures and dewpoints to fall to the mid and upper 60s as of 08Z, while temperatures remain in the 70s elsewhere, except around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints have fallen to the upper 60s all along the Interstate 10 corridor, while lower 70s prevail for north central and coastal northeast FL. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Strong high pressure over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. This surface ridge will push weak low pressure currently centered near Cape Canaveral slowly southward, in tandem with a persistent frontal boundary. This weather pattern will maintain a coastal trough over the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with a tight local pressure gradient keeping windy conditions going across coastal northeast FL through late this afternoon, where frequent gusts of 35-40 mph are expected. Breezy conditions will also continue across coastal southeast GA and will expand inland during the mid to late morning hours. Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will advect an unseasonably dry air mass across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where dewpoints will fall into the 50s this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will boost highs into the mid to upper 80s at most locations, which is still a few degrees below early September climatology. Bands of moderate to occasionally heavy showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to pivot onshore along the northeast FL coast today, mainly for locations south of Mayport, where moisture levels will remain closer to climatology. Rain bands through this evening will be more frequent for locations from St. Augustine southward, with these bands continuing to occasionally move inland across southern portions of the St. Johns River basin through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals, will remain possible across Flagler and southern portions of St. Johns Counties today and tonight, which could cause localized flooding, particularly at urban and normally flood prone, low lying coastal locations. Strong onshore winds and plenty of cloud cover will keep highs in the 80-85 degree range along the I-95 corridor, which is 4-8 degrees below early September climatology. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will begin to gradually weaken tonight as low pressure and the long-lived frontal boundary shift southward across south FL. Our local pressure gradient will begin to loosen, but breezy onshore winds will continue at coastal locations, with persistent coastal troughing continuing to generate occasional bands of low topped showers over the northeast FL waters that will occasionally move onshore across coastal locations in northeast FL, with showers also continuing to impact southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Lows tonight will fall to the low and mid 60s for inland southeast GA, with mid and upper 60s for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s for coastal locations and lower 70s for inland portions of north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will stretch south along the eastern coast of the CONUS, pushing the lingering frontal boundary toward southern FL. With high pressure building towards the area, relatively drier conditions will continue for much of the local area, limiting the amount of showers and storms across inland locations of SE GA and NE FL heading into midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will still be possible over north-central and coastal FL, where PWATs will remain slightly higher thanks to northeasterly onshore flow bringing in moist marine air. As showers and storms move onshore, periods of heavy rainfall along coastal NE FL could bring isolated Flash Flood risk for low-lying areas and urban areas, particularly along the I-95 corridor. Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s across the area, cooler temperatures along the coast as onshore flow brings in cooler marine air. Wednesday, slightly warmer temperatures with inland locations in upper 80s to lower 90s, coastal locations in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for inland SE GA and NE FL. Coastal locations and north-central FL will see slightly warmer lows, generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 By the back half of the upcoming week, the high pressure will shift off toward the north-northeast ahead of a dry cold front from the northwest, bringing about drier air to the local area. This will see precipitation chances trend downward relative to earlier half of the week. The weekend cold front is not expected to bring much in the way of a cool down, rather temperatures are expected to trend near to a bit above seasonal averages. Highs will be in the lower 90s by the end of the upcoming week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities was used this morning at SGJ. Confidence was too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots at the inland terminals early this morning will increase to around 15 knots and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 02Z Tuesday and continue through the overnight hours. Still too much low level winds Monday Night for any significant fog development. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low pressure centered along the east central Florida coast will shift slowly southward in tandem with a frontal boundary today as strong high pressure over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through early Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories in place throughout our local waters today and tonight. Seas will peak in the 6-9 foot range for the near shore and offshore waters north of St. Augustine today, with 5-8 foot seas south of St. Augustine. Speeds will diminish slightly to Caution levels of 15-20 knots tonight and Tuesday, with seas expected to fall to Caution levels of 4-6 feet by early Tuesday. Winds and seas will then fall below Caution levels by Tuesday night. Bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through midweek, as coastal troughing remains situated over our near shore waters. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Breaker heights today will peak just below High Surf criteria at the northeast FL beaches, where 5-6 foot values are expected, while breakers of 4-5 feet prevail at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf conditions will continue to promote a high rip current risk at all area beaches through Tuesday evening, with breakers falling slowly to the 4-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Tuesday and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches. Slowly subsiding surf may allow for the risk to be moderate by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY / COASTAL FLOODING... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will continue for coastal northeast FL and the St. Johns River basin today, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts remaining possible through Tuesday. Localized flooding will be possible wherever these heavier rain persist or "train" over the same locations, and the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a "Marginal" Risk (level 1 of 4) for flooding for these locations. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas around times of high tide on Tuesday and Wednesday, with water levels potentially peaking around 1.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). We will continue to monitor forecasts today for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory issuance for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 82 72 83 73 / 20 20 30 10 JAX 83 70 86 72 / 30 20 50 20 SGJ 84 74 85 74 / 70 50 60 30 GNV 87 70 88 70 / 30 20 40 20 OCF 86 71 88 72 / 50 20 50 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243529 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 649 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday into Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area. && .UPDATE... Aviation discussion updated below for 12Z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Decent bit of dry air advected into the area in northerly flow between high extending in from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary. The axis of dry air was very apparent with pcp water values down just below .8 inches into the Coastal Carolinas. This will get nudged farther inland some through today as winds become slightly more NE catching some of the Atlantic moisture and bringing pcp water values back up above and inch. Overall, still expecting a dry day with plenty of sunshine mixing with fairly flat cu in the aftn and some cirrus aloft. Will not rule out a stray shower along coastal SC toward the early evening. Cool northeasterly flow will maintain below normal temps in the lower 80s this afternoon and overnight lows between 60 and 65 most places, with some temps dropping just below 60, mainly west of I-95. Should see another breezy day with gusty NE winds coming day a bit into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Center of elongated surface ridge to the northwest of the local area and troughing at 5h sets up a pattern more typical of the cool season, with predictable results. Temperatures will run a little below normal, but with little to no rain chances through the middle of the week. Varying amounts of mid-level moisture will lead to some patches of high clouds spreading over the Southeast, but there isn`t enough moisture for showers despite some marginal instability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Longwave 5h trough will remain over the East Coast into next week. A series of shortwaves will push a couple cold fronts through the region this weekend. Return flow ahead of the first front, slated for Fri night into Sat, may kick off a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm Thu and Fri afternoon. However, forcing is limited and precipitable water is generally below normal so coverage would be quite limited. Second front moves into the area Sun, accompanied by a bit more moisture which may be converted into some scattered convection. However, the overall pattern lends more to stretched out, moisture starved fronts. Similar to what we see later in the fall and in early to mid spring, our driest times, so probably best to not count on much rain through the long term. Temperatures above normal into Sat before cooler air moves in next week, dropping temperatures below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. Persistent N-NE flow, between high pressure extending in from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast, will become gusty at times this afternoon. Sounding profiles show some cu around 3-5k ft, mixing with some higher cirrus. Overall, a dry forecast, although a couple of the models show a stray shower may affect coastal terminals into early this evening with potential for very brief MVFR, but chances are too low to include any mention in TAFs. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through today as gusty northeast winds persist in tightened gradient flow between high pressure extending down into the Carolinas from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up around 25 kts with some higher gusts. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through the afternoon but will diminish to under 6 ft by late day from south to north as the low moves farther away. By this evening, seas will diminish to 3 to 5 ft except for the outer waters, mainly beyond 15 nm. Tuesday through Friday... Location of surface ridge axis maintains northeast flow Tue and Wed before the ridge axis shifts northeast. The moving of the ridge axis opens the door for return flow. Light southeast Thu becomes south to southwest Fri with increasing speeds as the gradient becomes more defined. Seas will trend down through the week as the northeast wind wave gradually drops out and an east to southeast swell becomes more apparent. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: High risk for strong rip currents for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Breaking waves around 3 ft and the onshore swell direction today create conditions that favor the development of strong rip currents. A strong north to south longshore current will develop today along the beaches of Pender and New Hanover counties in North Carolina and along the beaches of Horry and Georgetown counties in South Carolina. The strong long shore current may limit the number of rip currents, however conditions will be conducive for the development of strong rip currents. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1243527 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 626 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Increasing (breezy/gusty) onshore flow and a building swell will lead to a HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents near Cape Canaveral northward. A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further as well, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. - Marine conditions have deteriorated over the local Volusia coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increasing to near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the Volusia waters. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Current...A weak area of low pressure has been observed just off of north Brevard County early this morning along a weak frontal boundary strewn across central FL. This feature was creating a tight pressure gradient across Volusia County with breezy/gusty NERLY winds. As the low moves onto the coast today the gusty onshore conditions are expected to continue. Will monitor in the event a Wind Advisory is necessary here. Today-Tonight...The aforementioned boundary will slowly sag southward through the period. Additional waves developing along this feature may enhance locally a continued heavy rainfall threat for some. Storm steering flow remains light, but suspect erratic movement will occur at times, esp surrounding the counter- clockwise circulation of the weak low. Relatively deep moisture (PWATs 1.80-2.00") continues across the area and ECFL remains outlooked by the WPC with a low-end Marginal Threat for Excessive Rainfall (locally). This remains especially true for areas that have already seen repeated rounds recently and for any future training echoes - should any develop. While confidence remains low, will also need to monitor for potential locally heavy rainfall potential along the coast again tonight - esp Cape southward. The pressure gradient remains rather tight near Melbourne northward today. As such, may see periods of breezy/gusty NE winds - highest along the coast, esp Volusia County. Not sold on a Windy Advisory (WI.Y) here just yet, but it bears watching as wind speeds are forecast to approach 20 mph this afternoon/early evening and we could see frequent gusts to 25-30 mph along the Volusia coast. A building swell will increase the rip current risk to HIGH today for Volusia/north Brevard counties with numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents expected, as well as for increasing ROUGH Surf. If you must enter the water today, swim near a life- guarded beach and never swim alone! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist for south Brevard and the Treasure Coast beaches. Much like previous days, evolution in convection remains uncertain with extensive cloud cover. We continue to carry slightly higher than normal rain chances (50-70pct). Average to slightly below normal temperatures continue today due to the clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon maxes will be in the M- U80s to around 90F. Muggy conditions continue overnight, with mins in the L-M70s and perhaps a few U70s along the coast. Tue-Sun...An onshore wind component will exist thru mid-week and the flow aloft remains mainly zonal as stronger shortwave energy stays northward, though we will see occasional impulses traverse the central peninsula embedded in the flow, which will aid to enhance diurnal convection. Deep moisture lingers into mid-week as PoP chances continue above normal (50-70pct) into Thu. Some drier air pushing into the area will reduce these numbers gradually Fri- Sun, esp our northern zones. Seasonally warm conditions return to the area during the extended, as peak heat indices north of 100F may also return Fri-Sun. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary across the local waters will continue to sag southward thru the period. A weak associated low pressure area just off the north Brevard coast is creating a rather tight pressure gradient across the Volusia waters. Have hoisted thru 02Z tonight a Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). Here, northeast winds near 20 kts with occasional gusts to Gale Force have been observed and may continue. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft. Small Craft should Exercise Caution across the Brevard waters today as seas build 4-6 ft (offshore) and 3-5 ft near shore. Winds may also approach 15-20 kts with higher gusts across the near shore (afternoon) and offshore Brevard waters. Presently for the Treasure Coast waters winds will increase to 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. A higher than normal coverage of showers and lightning storms will continue for the local waters through tonight. Tue-Fri...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid-week as deep moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine conditions (winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A meso low evident on the KMLB radar near KXMR should continue to shift slowly south thru today along with a frontal boundary that will sag southward and reach the srn Treasure Coast terminals this aftn shifting winds to the NE. On the back side of the low pressure area, low stratus has developed early this morning including Orlando area terminals to KSUA. Will continue TEMPO lower CIGs for these areas with most terminals rising to MVFR cat by 14z-15z. A tighter pressure gradient on the backside of the low and frontal boundary will produce gusty winds at KDAB through the period with a wind shift expected for cstl terminals by this aftn as the boundary moves south. Local IFR/MVFR CIGs mainly this morning, otherwise becoming MVFR/VFR outside of passing SHRA/TSRA today. By tonight...all terminals will be behind the front with lowering shower chances mainly confined to coastal terminals aft 02z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 75 86 75 / 70 40 60 30 MCO 87 75 88 74 / 70 20 70 30 MLB 87 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 40 VRB 89 75 89 74 / 70 40 70 50 LEE 86 74 88 74 / 50 20 60 30 SFB 86 75 88 75 / 70 30 60 30 ORL 86 75 88 75 / 70 20 70 30 FPR 89 73 90 72 / 70 40 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243526 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 616 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Little change is expected through tonight. In the grand scheme of our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start September. A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funneling down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10 will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Broad upper trough across the eastern third of the US will remain in place as one upper low over the northeast US weakens and moves northeast while a stronger upper low dives from Canada towards the northern Great Lakes. Northeast low level flow will continue with high pressure over the Appalachians and the pesky stationary boundary to our south. As a cold front advances into the upper midwest Wednesday, aforementioned high pressure gets shunted eastward as well as the stationary boundary gaining momentum to push northeast and away from the region. This will break the low level northeast flow and send a pair of cold fronts toward the Gulf coast as the upper low spins across the Great Lakes region and back into southern Canada; the first arriving Friday but with dry air in place the arrival will be of little fanfare. The second front is at the end of this forecast period and appears to slow as it reaches the Gulf coast. PWATs will be fairly low (1.1-1.3 inches) through midweek with continued northeast low level flow and drier air from the Appalachians. The seabreeze will be pinned closer to the coast and low rain chances there and the southeast Big Bend. Heading into later this week, the northeast flow clocks to more of a westerly component with PWATs slowly increasing but more mid level dry air keeping rain chances low. It may not be till later next weekend that we experience an increase in rain chances with the second front possibly stalling and PWATs jumping back towards 2 inches. Temperature-wise through the week highs will slowly tick up into the low to mid 90s by Saturday while lows will mainly be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR through the period. Northeast winds persist with some gustiness this afternoon at all sites up to 15-20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters through this morning in waters east of Apalachicola and this afternoon in waters west of Apalachicola. Additional advisories may be needed tonight into Tuesday morning as well. As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front to our south, northeast winds between these two features will persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week, winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary moves eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure to the north will promote northeast winds over the next few days as well as drier air. Transport winds this afternoon will range between 15 to 20 mph while slightly lower speeds into mid week. Mixing heights will range between 4000 to 6000 feet with afternoon humidities falling into the low to mid 40 percent range. High dispersions today will be located through most of the Florida districts as well as the Alabama wiregrass region. Rain chances through mid week will be located mainly near the coast and southeast Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Comparably drier conditions will continue this week by late August and early September standards. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts through next weekend will average an inch or less. Therefore, no flash or riverine flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 88 67 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 89 68 89 71 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 85 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 30 20 Apalachicola 87 71 85 73 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243525 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:57 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 555 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Onshore flow leads to a few more clouds today with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Early morning analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered in southern Ontario but ridging south into the local area. Surface troughing off the SE CONUS has moved a bit farther offshore. An upper trough/closed low remains nearly stationary over the eastern CONUS. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some low stratus moving onshore across the OBX, generally south of the Albemarle Sound. Expecting another gorgeous day today with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and low humidity. Still a bit breezy from the NE today (especially near the coast) as the pressure gradient remains steep between high pressure to the north and the trough offshore. Expecting a bit more in the way of cumulus clouds today with continued onshore flow. A stray shower is possible near the coast in NE NC this afternoon but latest CAM guidance shows very little support for this scenario. Clouds thin out this evening with low temps falling back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be light with less cloud cover expected away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore. Continued dry and pleasant Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Not quite as cool overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure translates offshore and winds swing around the SE. Afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. 00z guidance is in good agreement keeping the entire area dry Wednesday and Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into early Friday as a weakening front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Thursday through Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers increases into Thursday night and early Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to perhaps a quarter inch of precip. 00z models show the front washing out across the region with winds remaining S or SW into Saturday. Accordingly, no longer expecting an airmass change or even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew points. Warmest day looks to be Saturday ahead of another front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture looks to be lacking with this front as well. The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 555 AM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 12z/01 TAF period. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some stratus noted off the NC OBX that may move into the ECG vicinity over the next few hours. Winds are light N inland but are still 10-15 kt at ORF and 5-10 kt at ECG. Latest guidance has backed off on the potential for MVFR CIGs toward sunrise with the NAM the only hold out. Still think clouds will be thicker today than they were on Sunday but likely remaining VFR. NE winds continue and become gusty near the coast as mixing gets underway by mid morning. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish tonight-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay today into Tuesday. Early this morning, weak low pressure is located well offshore. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure continues to build from the north. The pressure gradient between the two features has resulted increased NE winds over the waters. Latest observations show NE winds around 15 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots over the southern half of the waters and 10 to 15 knots further north. Seas/waves also continue to build, with 5 to 6 ft (locally up to 7 ft) seas south and 3 to 5 ft north. Waves in the bay range from 2 to 3 ft (3 to 4 ft at the mouth). High pressure will remain in place into Wednesday. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward today into tonight. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, today into tonight. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters through today and into Tuesday. SCAs are also in effect for the Chesapeake Bay into this afternoon/evening. By this evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast for much of the remainder of the forecast period. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas today, with 4 to 6 ft seas forecast. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated into Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria later Tuesday. The rip current risk will is high for the southern beaches today, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1243524 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 453 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A lull between convective waves is underway across the Florida Keys this morning. After yet another active period ranging from yesterday afternoon to evening, GOES-19 infrared imagery shows a blanket of residual cloud debris painted across our area. KAMX radar did note a few pulse thunderstorms popping up around the Lower Keys a couple hours ago, but those have since deteriorated in our overworked environment. Their influence to our sensible weather still lingers however, as their outflow was recently detected on our offshore observation platforms along the west side of the Reef as light northwesterly breezes. The rest of the Reef observations are currently measuring in gentle southwest breezes. Temperatures along the island chain are a touch lower than this time yesterday with values near 80. Dewpoints are still floating around the mid to upper 70s. While it may be a different day, the same forecast as the last few days is on tap in the short term. Troughing is anchored across the Eastern Seaboard with a surface low broadly situated across Florida promoting our westerly flow. A weak cyclonic circulation was actually observed on KMLB just off the east coast a few hours ago. Last night`s KKEY 00z sounding has both westerly flow up into the mid levels and an extremely moist profile. CIMSS MIMIC PW indicates this moist air is found across the Gulf and stretching across the Keys over The Bahamas. No changes in the synoptic pattern will result in a very similar forecast to yesterday`s but with a bit extra. Considering how well showers have been proliferating in this environment and how high rain chances are in numerical guidance, opted to move to likely PoPs for today and extending into tonight. Expect another wave of numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms percolating through out the day with occasional lulls before the next spike in activity. The long term forecast still holds onto this pattern throughout the work week. As the previously mentioned trough continues to sit along the periphery of the Bermuda High, fluctuations in winds will be generally mesoscale driven with the thermal low freshening breezes during the day and the overall windfield generally only being affected by storm outflow. This weekend, high pressure building back into eastern CONUS will finally spread over mainland Florida returning our flow back to the usual easterlies. As little change is currently expected, persistence continues to be the best forecast with above normal PoPs at 50% along with a chance of thunderstorms. High and low temperatures will stay near 90 and in the lower 80s (outside of precipitation) respectively as breezes generally remain out of the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, somewhat unusual westerly breezes prevail across the Florida Keys as our area is situated between ridging in the Caribbean and troughing along the Eastern Seaboard. This pattern will remain relatively unchanged throughout the forecast as the trough lazes over the east coast of CONUS while a surface low develops along the Georgia coastline. This low is progged to meander off into the western North Atlantic and rest on the west edge of the Bermuda High promoting an extension of the already established pattern in the Keys. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Spotty showers near the terminals this morning will dissipate prior to dawn. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop. Given the trends lately, have introduced VCSH as early as 15Z but it may take until closer to 18Z to see convection fire. Any passing shower or storm will bring MVFR to brief IFR conditions along with gusty erratic winds. Outside of this activity, winds will generally be southwest to west. && .CLIMATE... In 1980, the daily record rainfall of 3.25" was recorded in Key West. In 1971, the daily record rainfall of 2.21" was recorded in Marathon. Daily precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871, and date back to 1950 for Marathon . Of note, in 1933, a Hurricane moved west northwest through the Straits about 60 miles south of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.61" was recorded along with a peak sustained winds of 42 mph. Little damage was reported in Key West. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 81 92 81 / 70 50 60 50 Marathon 90 80 90 81 / 70 60 60 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243523 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 406 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL TODAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY... ...HOT WEATHER RETURNS LATE THIS WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Overnight surface analysis depicts weak low pressure (1011 millibars) situated near Cape Canaveral, with coastal troughing extending north of this feature over the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to northeast FL. Meanwhile, the stationary frontal boundary that has persisted over our area during the past several days has been pushed southward to the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL by strong high pressure (1026 millibars) positioned across the eastern Great Lakes and New England that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Aloft...troughing over the eastern third of the nation has become cutoff over the Mid-Atlantic states as ridging building over the Upper Midwest and the western Great Lakes develops a blocking pattern. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a drier air mass continues to advect across inland locations, where PWATs range from around 1.2 inches for locations along the Altamaha / Ocmulgee / Alapaha Rivers in southeast GA to around 1.75 inches across north central FL. PWATs near early September climatology persist along the northeast FL coastal counties, where values were in the 1.8 - 2 inch range. A tight local pressure gradient persists locally in between the low pressure center near Cape Canaveral and surface ridging that was wedging down the southeastern seaboard, with strong low level northeasterly flow organizing bands of mostly low topped showers that extend from the offshore waters adjacent to southeast GA southwestward across the northeast FL waters, with these rain bands continuing to occasionally move onshore from the Jacksonville Beaches and points southward, with this activity extending inland to southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Fair skies and lighter northeast winds across inland southeast GA have allowed temperatures and dewpoints to fall to the mid and upper 60s as of 08Z, while temperatures remain in the 70s elsewhere, except around 80 along the northeast FL coast. Dewpoints have fallen to the upper 60s all along the Interstate 10 corridor, while lower 70s prevail for north central and coastal northeast FL. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Strong high pressure over New England and the Mid-Atlantic states will continue to wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. This surface ridge will push weak low pressure currently centered near Cape Canaveral slowly southward, in tandem with a persistent frontal boundary. This weather pattern will maintain a coastal trough over the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL, with a tight local pressure gradient keeping windy conditions going across coastal northeast FL through late this afternoon, where frequent gusts of 35-40 mph are expected. Breezy conditions will also continue across coastal southeast GA and will expand inland during the mid to late morning hours. Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will advect an unseasonably dry air mass across southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, where dewpoints will fall into the 50s this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine will boost highs into the mid to upper 80s at most locations, which is still a few degrees below early September climatology. Bands of moderate to occasionally heavy showers and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to pivot onshore along the northeast FL coast today, mainly for locations south of Mayport, where moisture levels will remain closer to climatology. Rain bands through this evening will be more frequent for locations from St. Augustine southward, with these bands continuing to occasionally move inland across southern portions of the St. Johns River basin through tonight. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches, with locally higher totals, will remain possible across Flagler and southern portions of St. Johns Counties today and tonight, which could cause localized flooding, particularly at urban and normally flood prone, low lying coastal locations. Strong onshore winds and plenty of cloud cover will keep highs in the 80-85 degree range along the I-95 corridor, which is 4-8 degrees below early September climatology. High pressure wedging down the southeastern seaboard will begin to gradually weaken tonight as low pressure and the long-lived frontal boundary shift southward across south FL. Our local pressure gradient will begin to loosen, but breezy onshore winds will continue at coastal locations, with persistent coastal troughing continuing to generate occasional bands of low topped showers over the northeast FL waters that will occasionally move onshore across coastal locations in northeast FL, with showers also continuing to impact southern portions of the St. Johns River basin. Lows tonight will fall to the low and mid 60s for inland southeast GA, with mid and upper 60s for the Suwannee Valley. Breezy onshore winds will keep lows in the mid 70s for coastal locations and lower 70s for inland portions of north central FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure will stretch south along the eastern coast of the CONUS, pushing the lingering frontal boundary toward southern FL. With high pressure building towards the area, relatively drier conditions will continue for much of the local area, limiting the amount of showers and storms across inland locations of SE GA and NE FL heading into midweek. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms will still be possible over north-central and coastal FL, where PWATs will remain slightly higher thanks to northeasterly onshore flow bringing in moist marine air. As showers and storms move onshore, periods of heavy rainfall along coastal NE FL could bring isolated Flash Flood risk for low-lying areas and urban areas, particularly along the I-95 corridor. Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s across the area, cooler temperatures along the coast as onshore flow brings in cooler marine air. Wednesday, slightly warmer temperatures with inland locations in upper 80s to lower 90s, coastal locations in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s for inland SE GA and NE FL. Coastal locations and north-central FL will see slightly warmer lows, generally in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 By the back half of the upcoming week, the high pressure will shift off toward the north-northeast ahead of a dry cold front from the northwest, bringing about drier air to the local area. This will see precipitation chances trend downward relative to earlier half of the week. The weekend cold front is not expected to bring much in the way of a cool down, rather temperatures are expected to trend near to a bit above seasonal averages. Highs will be in the lower 90s by the end of the upcoming week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities was used overnight through the predawn hours on Monday at SGJ, with a PROB30 group for IFR visibilities during the morning and early afternoon hours. Confidence was too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots at the inland terminals overnight will increase to around 15 knots and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 02Z Tuesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Low pressure centered along the east central Florida coast will shift slowly southward in tandem with a frontal boundary today as strong high pressure over New England continues to wedge down the southeastern seaboard. Gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will continue through early Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisories in place throughout our local waters today and tonight. Seas will peak in the 6-9 foot range for the near shore and offshore waters north of St. Augustine today, with 5-8 foot seas south of St. Augustine. Speeds will diminish slightly to Caution levels of 15-20 knots tonight and Tuesday, with seas expected to fall to Caution levels of 4-6 feet by early Tuesday. Winds and seas will then fall below Caution levels by Tuesday night. Bands of showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to impact our local waters through midweek, as coastal troughing remains situated over our near shore waters. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: Breaker heights today will peak just below High Surf criteria at the northeast FL beaches, where 5-6 foot values are expected, while breakers of 4-5 feet prevail at the southeast GA beaches. Rough surf conditions will continue to promote a high rip current risk at all area beaches through Tuesday evening, with breakers falling slowly to the 4-5 foot range at the northeast FL beaches on Tuesday and 3-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches. Slowly subsiding surf may allow for the risk to be moderate by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY / COASTAL FLOODING... Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Heavy rainfall potential will continue for coastal northeast FL and the St. Johns River basin today, with additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts remaining possible through Tuesday. Localized flooding will be possible wherever these heavier rain persist or "train" over the same locations, and the Weather Prediction Center has maintained a "Marginal" Risk (level 1 of 4) for flooding for these locations. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas around times of high tide on Tuesday and Wednesday, with water levels potentially peaking around 1.5 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW). We will continue to monitor forecasts today for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory issuance for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 82 72 83 73 / 20 10 30 10 JAX 84 72 86 72 / 30 10 50 20 SGJ 84 75 85 74 / 60 30 60 30 GNV 86 69 88 70 / 40 10 40 20 OCF 86 72 88 72 / 50 10 50 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243522 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 419 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Reduced rain chances expected for the holiday as a weak surface low is currently near Cape Canaveral along a lingering frontal boundary extending W/SW from the W Atlantic across SWFL and into the gulf. N/NE surface and low level flow north of the boundary will help temper overall instability and rain chances today and Tuesday, representing a notable shift in forecast reasoning compared to 24 hours ago, when the expectation was that the boundary would remain a bit further north allowing deeper moisture to remain over the area fostering higher rain chances through the early part of the week. Nevertheless, PWATs continuing between 1.6-1.9 inches will still support scattered showers and storms developing across parts of the area this afternoon, generally within the deeper moisture over parts of the interior and south of I-4 this afternoon into evening. SWFL locations south of the boundary in the Punta Gorda and Fort Myers vicinity may get an earlier start with showers possible later this morning as the flow remains more onshore, and many WC/SWFL locations will start out the morning under areas of low cloudiness as low level Atlantic moisture streams S/SW across the peninsula. Similar setup likely through mid week to perhaps late week, so long as the boundary remains to the south, which seems reasonable as longwave troughing that has been over the E U.S. and Seaboard for much of the past week is progged to remain in the general vicinity into the weekend as reinforcing shortwaves propagate through the E and SE U.S. Therefore can expect daily scattered shower and storms, with chances increasing with southward extent across the peninsula. Highs expected near climatological norms for early September, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Updated to include MVFR cig potential mainly across northern terminals through the morning as low level Atlantic moisture advects S/SW across the peninsula, followed by VFR returning late morning into early afternoon. Otherwise, N/NE flow with slightly drier conditions expected through the cycle, but some shower/storm chances remain particularly mid afternoon through early evening with southward propagating convection within the overall flow, prompting PROB30 groups generally within the 18-24Z period for greatest likelihood. Light winds overnight increase to N/NE 5-10 knots by early afternoon, turning onshore for a few hours at southern terminals, generally remaining within that range through the end of the cycle, although slightly higher winds with some gustiness will be possible in the evening before diminishing overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Breezy northeast winds approaching exercise caution levels likely again across the northeastern Gulf waters Monday night north of a boundary over the southern waters. Winds diminish into mid week, however shower and storm chances will continue through the week, particularly in the vicinity of the boundary. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 North to northeast winds expected for most of the area through the week north of a boundary over the southern half of the peninsula. Daily scattered showers and storms continue through the week with highest chances over the interior and west central and southwest FL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 90 74 88 75 / 50 30 60 50 BKV 89 71 89 71 / 50 10 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243521 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 356 AM AST Mon Sep 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Another warm day expected across the islands and heat indices that could exacerbate heat-related illnesses and symptoms. * Afternoon convection is expected to produce thunderstorms today across the western interior sections of Puerto Rico. * A tropical wave, combined with an upper-level trough, will increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms from Saturday into Sunday, heightening the flood threat. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly variable weather conditions will persist with warm conditions through the upcoming weekend, when the arrival of a tropical wave will increase shower frequency across the islands. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday... Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the islands during the overnight hours. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms were noted mainly across the regional waters, with a few moving briefly over land areas between the USVI and eastern PR. Minimum temperatures were from the upper-70s to low 80s across the lower elevations of the islands to the upper-60s and mid-70s across the higher elevations of Puerto Rico. The wind was light due to land breeze variations. A meandering weak TUTT-low north of the area will promote marginal unstable conditions aloft during the next few days, but particularly on Wednesday as it sinks further south, just to our northwest. This will promote colder 500mb temperatures near -6C, which is in the 50th percentile of climatology. In terms of the available moisture content, the precipitable water content is still expected to remain at normal levels through the short-term period, but peaking just below 2 inches by early Wednesday. At lower levels, the Azores High and a front over the northwestern Atlantic will promote light to moderate southeasterly winds through Wednesday. Therefore, a similar weather pattern is expected each day, with strong thunderstorms developing mainly over the northwestern quadrant of PR, with isolated thunderstorms developing elsewhere over portions of the Cordillera and downwind from el Yunque area into nearby municipalities. These thunderstorms can produce quick urban and small stream flooding, cloud to ground lightning, and gusty winds. Across the USVI, shower activity will peak between Tuesday and Wednesday morning, as a surge of moisture currently east of the Windward Islands moves across the local area. Meanwhile, the combination of dewpoints from the upper 70s and low 80s during the day and the light southeasterly winds will continue to promote Heat Advisory to Extreme Heat Warning conditions across most coastal areas of the islands through the forecast period and before the onset of afternoon showers. Therefore, stay well- hydrated, limit strenuous activities during peak heat hours, avoid leaving children or pets inside vehicles, and wear lightweight, loose-fitting, light-colored clothing. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... The long term forecast starts with a variable pattern across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At the surface, from Thursday through Friday, weather conditions will be dominated by high pressure over the central Atlantic, promoting an east- southeast wind flow across the region. This pattern will allow patches of tropical moisture with precipitable water values ranging from 1.70 to 1.90 inches to stream across the islands. As a result, variable conditions are expected during the mornings, followed by the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the interior and northwest Puerto Rico, where the combination of sea breeze convergence and daytime heating will enhance convective development. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. By late Friday and continuing into the weekend, an upper-level trough near 250 mb will increase instability across the region, favoring stronger convection with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and periods of heavy rainfall. As the weekend progresses, a tropical wave will further enhance the moisture field across the islands from Saturday into Sunday, resulting in more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Rainfall is expected to begin early in the morning hours on Saturday, becoming more active and widespread during the afternoon over much of Puerto Rico, with isolated thunderstorms likely elsewhere. This activity may lead to an increased risk of urban and small stream flooding, especially in areas that experience the heaviest rainfall. By late Sunday into Monday, drier air is forecast to filter into the region as upper-level high pressure erodes the trough aloft. This will promote greater stability, warmer mid-level temperatures near 500 mb, and a noticeable reduction in shower frequency, with mainly localized afternoon showers expected over western Puerto Rico while the Virgin Islands experience fair weather conditions. && .AVIATION... (06z TAFs) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hour. However, afternoon TSRA could develop near TJBQ/TJSJ between 01/17-23Z, causing tempo MVFR to brief IFR conditions. Elsewhere, mostly VCSH expected. Southeast winds expected between 10-15 kt with sea breeze variations and higher gusts aft 01/14z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic and a surface trough will continue to result in moderate to locally fresh east to southeasterly winds across the local waters. Seas will remain up to 5 feet across the Atlantic offshore waters and even lower across the coastal waters. For the upcoming weekend, the arrival of a tropical wave will increase the frequency of showers and thunderstorms, resulting in localized hazardous marine conditions. && .BEACH FORECAST... Calm marine conditions will continue to result mostly in a low risk of rip current along all the coastal areas across all the islands. Therefore, coastal conditions are suitable for beachgoers and visitors. Although conditions remain good stay alert to areas not designated to beachgoers. $$ |
| #1243519 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 304 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Increasing (breezy/gusty) onshore flow and a building swell will lead to a HIGH risk for life-threatening rip currents near Cape Canaveral northward. A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further as well, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. - Marine conditions have deteriorated over the local Volusia coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increasing to near 20 knots with frequent higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the Volusia waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Current...A weak area of low pressure has been observed just off of north Brevard County early this morning along a weak frontal boundary strewn across central FL. This feature was creating a tight pressure gradient across Volusia County with breezy/gusty NERLY winds. As the low moves onto the coast today the gusty onshore conditions are expected to continue. Will monitor in the event a Wind Advisory is necessary here. Today-Tonight...The aforementioned boundary will slowly sag southward through the period. Additional waves developing along this feature may enhance locally a continued heavy rainfall threat for some. Storm steering flow remains light, but suspect erratic movement will occur at times, esp surrounding the counter- clockwise circulation of the weak low. Relatively deep moisture (PWATs 1.80-2.00") continues across the area and ECFL remains outlooked by the WPC with a low-end Marginal Threat for Excessive Rainfall (locally). This remains especially true for areas that have already seen repeated rounds recently and for any future training echoes - should any develop. While confidence remains low, will also need to monitor for potential locally heavy rainfall potential along the coast again tonight - esp Cape southward. The pressure gradient remains rather tight near Melbourne northward today. As such, may see periods of breezy/gusty NE winds - highest along the coast, esp Volusia County. Not sold on a Windy Advisory (WI.Y) here just yet, but it bears watching as wind speeds are forecast to approach 20 mph this afternoon/early evening and we could see frequent gusts to 25-30 mph along the Volusia coast. A building swell will increase the rip current risk to HIGH today for Volusia/north Brevard counties with numerous, strong, life- threatening rip currents expected, as well as for increasing ROUGH Surf. If you must enter the water today, swim near a life- guarded beach and never swim alone! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents will exist for south Brevard and the Treasure Coast beaches. Much like previous days, evolution in convection remains uncertain with extensive cloud cover. We continue to carry slightly higher than normal rain chances (50-70pct). Average to slightly below normal temperatures continue today due to the clouds and higher rain chances. Afternoon maxes will be in the M- U80s to around 90F. Muggy conditions continue overnight, with mins in the L-M70s and perhaps a few U70s along the coast. Tue-Sun...An onshore wind component will exist thru mid-week and the flow aloft remains mainly zonal as stronger shortwave energy stays northward, though we will see occasional impulses traverse the central peninsula embedded in the flow, which will aid to enhance diurnal convection. Deep moisture lingers into mid-week as PoP chances continue above normal (50-70pct) into Thu. Some drier air pushing into the area will reduce these numbers gradually Fri- Sun, esp our northern zones. Seasonally warm conditions return to the area during the extended, as peak heat indices north of 100F may also return Fri-Sun. && .MARINE... Issued at 303 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary across the local waters will continue to sag southward thru the period. A weak associated low pressure area just off the north Brevard coast is creating a rather tight pressure gradient across the Volusia waters. Have hoisted thru 02Z tonight a Small Craft Advisory for the Volusia waters (0-60nm). Here, northeast winds near 20 kts with occasional gusts to Gale Force have been observed and may continue. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft. Small Craft should Exercise Caution across the Brevard waters today as seas build 4-6 ft (offshore) and 3-5 ft near shore. Winds may also approach 15-20 kts with higher gusts across the near shore (afternoon) and offshore Brevard waters. Presently for the Treasure Coast waters winds will increase to 10-15 kts with seas 3-5 ft. A higher than normal coverage of showers and lightning storms will continue for the local waters through tonight. Tue-Fri...Unsettled conditions continue thru mid-week as deep moisture lingers across the waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and storms. Gradually improving marine conditions (winds/seas) begin Tue thru late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A meso low evident on the KMLB radar just northeast of KTIX should shift south thru today along with a frontal boundary that will sag southward and reach the srn Treasure Coast terminals this aftn shifting winds to the NE. A tighter pressure gradient on the backside of the low and frontal boundary will produce gusty winds at KDAB through the period and become gusty at times for cstl terminals by this aftn. Local MVFR CIGs mainly north of a KISM- KTIX line thru 13z this morning, otherwise mainly VFR outside of passing SHRA/TSRA today. By tonight...all terminals will be behind the front with low shower chances mainly confined to coastal terminals aft 02z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 75 86 75 / 70 40 60 30 MCO 87 75 88 74 / 70 20 70 30 MLB 87 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 40 VRB 89 75 89 74 / 70 40 70 50 LEE 86 74 88 74 / 50 20 60 30 SFB 86 75 88 75 / 70 30 60 30 ORL 86 75 88 75 / 70 20 70 30 FPR 89 73 90 72 / 70 40 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243518 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 249 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to wedge over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas today, abutting a stalled frontal boundary and low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast. Another area of low pressure may pass over or offshore of the area mid to late week. A front will move through the area late this weekend and early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 230 AM Monday...Labor Day kicking off on a cool and clear note as broad mid-level cyclone continues to swirl over the eastern CONUS, helping to funnel dry air from New England southward. At the surface, wedge of high pressure remains entrenched over the mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas, while offshore stalled frontal boundary and attendant low pressure linger. The resultant pressure gradient is helping keep northeasterly flow elevated across the region, especially for OBX where frequent gusts of 20-25 kt continue. Little change in the forecast today from yesterday as overall pattern remains stagnant. Highs will approach the low 80s in gusty northeasterly winds, especially in the afternoon. Shower threat will be predominantly confined offshore where instability will be maximized between the Gulf Stream and cooler air aloft in tandem with better moisture, but cannot rule out a brief shower or two bleeding along the coast. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out given modest instability of up to 500 J/kg. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 235 AM Monday...Another cool and partly clear evening in store as any lingering shower threat along the coast comes to an end. Guidance hints at a modest increase in moisture overnight, and would not be surprised to see some low stratus attempt to develop inland. Lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s inland, mid to upper 60s along the water. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM Mon... Key Messages - Below normal temperatures expected through midweek - Increasing precip chances late weekend and early next week Tuesday...Troughing will remain over the Eastern Seaboard with an upper level low centered in the Northeastern CONUS moving little through Tuesday morning. This upper level low then moves off to the north and east Tue night into the Canadian Maritimes. Enhanced southern stream jet will also be noted extending from the Sargasso Sea west into the Deep South. This is notable as this will be the catalyst for surface low cyclogenesis off the Southeast Coast with this low forecast to deepen as it tracks north and east off the East Coast. At the same time, surface high pressure will be centered over the Great Lakes but will be wedging itself into the Mid-Atlantic. This is forecast to keep the aforementioned low off the coast of the Carolinas into Tuesday thus limiting any precip threat to along the coast and OBX. Shortwave diving south across the Northern Plains along the periphery of the troughing over the Eastern CONUS. This lead shortwave will be out ahead of a much deeper trough diving S`wards from the Canadian Prairies towards the Great Lakes. At the surface this will result in a second area of cyclogenesis in the Central Plains with this surface cyclone and its associated front pushing further southwards towards the Gulf Coast States. Temps will continue to remain below avg through Tue with highs only getting into the mid 70s to low 80s. Lows get into the upper 50s inland to upper 60s across the OBX. Wed through the weekend...Medium to low confidence forecast for the remainder of the extended range given large model spread in overall strength and position of upper level troughs and lower level features later next week. Lead shortwave trough is forecast to strengthen some on Wed/Thurs allowing broad troughing over the Eastern CONUS to deepen while southern stream jet strengthens further allowing for a deepening surface low in the Gulf. This deepening low is then forecast to track north and east Wed-Fri. Recent trends have slowed the progression of this low and trended towards a more offshore track, so impacts have lowered on Wed but have increased late week as the low makes its closest point of approach. Will continue sc pops through the period, lower than climo. As strong upper trough dives into the Great Lakes and Northeast Wed through Fri with associated surface low and cold front pushing east towards ENC. High pressure is then forecast to build in from the west over the weekend. Again, guidance is having a hard time handling the strength and position of the upper level troughs, so confidence in the exact evolution of these features is low. But could see a low end threat for additional precip on Fri into the weekend. Temps remain below avg through Wed gradually warming closer climo by the end of the week as NE`rly flow becomes more S`rly and low level thicknesses increase. Temps will climb back towards 90 deg inland late week into the first part of the weekend. Another front looks to push through the area late weekend and early next week, which will lead to enhanced precip chances. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 06z Tuesday/... As of 245 AM Monday...VFR prevails across all TAF terminals early this Labor Day, although some MVFR cigs are encroaching on the Outer Banks in association with modestly deeper moisture pooled along a stalled frontal boundary offshore. Mainly VFR expected through the period, although some lower clouds may result in brief periods of sub-MVFR for the rest of the overnight period and early this morning. Breezy conditions yet again in the afternoon with gusts up to 15-20 kt inland, and up to 25 kt OBX. Isolated shower threat expected for coastal terminals, but TAF sites should remain dry. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Expect primarily VFR conditions across ENC through the period. Iso showers and storms possible each afternoon, with chances below climo. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Labor Day/... As of 250 AM Monday... Poor boating conditions ongoing across area waters this morning as pressure gradient remains pinched between wedge of high pressure building in from the north and stalled frontal boundary offshore. Northeast winds of 15-25 kt continue with a few gusts as high as 30 kt over the outer waters. This has kept seas elevated, currently at 6-8 feet across Raleigh Bay and waters north, and closer to 5-7 for Onslow Bay. Winds will subside gradually today, but still hover at around 20 kt sustained. Seas will not respond much, perhaps falling by a foot but little more. Did make manual adjustments upward for forecast seas north of Cape Hatteras given NWPS chronic underestimation of NE wind swell. SCA headlines were not changed from the previous forecast, apart from some modest adjustments to end times across soundside waters based on model guidance trends. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 220 AM Mon...Breezy NE winds 10-20 kt will continue Tue, with gradient grad easing Tue night into Wed. SCA conditions will continue for the coastal waters Tue and Tue evening, with gusts to 25 kt and seas 4-7 ft. NE winds ease to 5-15 kt Wed with seas subsiding to 2-4 ft as high pressure ridges in from the north. Winds continue to remain light but gradually veer to the E-SE Thu and S-SW Fri as a cold front approaches from the west. Seas generally remain at 2-4 ft from Wed through late week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 220 AM Mon...Notable low pressure south of ENC, and strong high pressure over New England, will support persistent, and strengthening, northeasterly onshore flow along the OBX over the next few days. This should allow wave heights and periods to gradually build. At the peak, guidance suggests wave periods of 8-9 seconds by Tuesday. Normally this wouldn`t be concerning, but in light of the recent impact to dunes in the wake of Hurricane Erin, there is at least a low end risk of some minor coastal issues, mainly for portions of Ocracoke and Hatteras Islands. This would especially be the case by high tide (~3pm) on Tuesday as wave periods reach their peak. At this time, no headlines are planned, but we will continue to monitor water levels and trends in wave guidance to determine if a locally higher risk may develop. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ196-199- 203>205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ131- 137-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1243517 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:09 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through at least Thursday, bringing an extended stretch of dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Turns more humid by Friday, with an approaching cold front bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Humid conditions and risk for showers may linger into Saturday ahead of the cold front, then cooler and drier weather returns next Sunday as the front moves off the coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 240 AM Update: Key Messages: * Filtered sunshine today with canopy of high clouds, but dry weather prevails. * Northeast winds near the coast keep temps along the eastern MA coast in the low 70s, with mid/upper 70s inland. Details: Good morning and welcome to the first day of meteorological autumn! The past few nights have felt a lot like early autumn, and current conditions are similar to those past few nights with temps in the 40s to lower/mid 50s. Broad high pressure centered in southern Ontario continues to supply a dry, low-PWAT airmass for most of New England. Meanwhile, considerable upper level moisture was being advected northward from a midlevel closed low over the Delmarva Peninsula, permitting an increasing cirrus canopy into Southern New England. This upper level low is forecast to progress northward and northwestward into NY through tonight, but high pressure will continue to dominate our weather. All that said, we`ll see a continued increasing canopy of mid to high clouds for today, but dry weather will continue. Northeast breezes to around 10 mph near the coast (up to around 15 mph Cape and Islands) can be expected today, with lighter northeast winds inland, and that onshore flow probably starts pretty early today. It may be a struggle for eastern MA/Cape and Islands to reach the low 70s with filtered sun and the onshore winds; otherwise further inland, highs in the mid to mid/upper 70s will again be the rule. For tonight, mid to high clouds will initially be in place, while gradually moving northeast through midnight. The only real question mark is if we can see patchy fog develop as northeast winds ease and better radiational cooling takes place. Still think it ends up being pretty patchy and we haven`t had that much in terms of coverage the last few days; dewpoints are a touch higher due to the onshore flow so there might be a little more fog/mist overnight but nothing widespread. Lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, with upper 50s Cape and Islands and towards Greater Boston. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 240 AM Update: Key Messages: * Mostly clear with onshore flow and temps in the 70s Tue, cooler near the coast. * Modest warming trend Wed with a light southwest wind and highs well into the 70s to low 80s. Details: Tuesday and Wednesday: Tranquil weather in this period as high pressure still remains in control. We`ll see another day of northeast winds on Tue, so temperatures on Tue should be similar to those today, maybe a degree or two milder. It`s borderline and looking at the last 24 hrs worth of wave height guidance I don`t think one is necessary, but later shifts could consider a rip current statement for Tue for the east- facing beaches over the Outer Cape and Nantucket with seas on the outer waters around 5 ft. Rip current risk is in the Moderate range for these beaches. Clear skies and light winds again favors strong radiational cooling with patchy fog in the river valleys with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. More subtle changes to the theme as we move into Wed, as high pressure will slip to our southeast and allow for a southerly flow to develop. This will bring warmer low level temps (850 mb temps around +10 to +11C) and mixed-out dewpoints in the mid 50s to near 60, so a touch more humid but still tolerable. But another high and dry day with highs well into the 70s, with a few lower 80s in the CT and Merrimack Valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * Warm and dry Thurs with temps mid 70s to lower 80s. * A bit more humid on Fri as a frontal system moves through with showers and thunderstorms late Fri into early Sat. * Still rather mild and somewhat humid Sat but becoming cooler than normal for Sun and Mon. Details: High pressure still is maintained early Thurs but weakens through the day with increasing clouds ahead of a rather potent frontal system. So we`ll have one more dry day on Thurs before this frontal system moves through Southern New England on Fri. Rising humidity levels on Fri as dewpoints climb into the mid 60s; this added moisture combined with glancing QG dynamics favors wetting rains. EPS Ensemble 24 hr rains probs show solid (40 to 60%) probs of rains at or over a tenth of an inch, and lower (20-30%) probs of 24 hr rains over a half-inch. It looks like the best chance is over the interior higher terrain and less the further southeast one goes. While the frontal systems clears our area on Sat with some residual light showers over eastern New England, it looks like the post- frontal airmass will be slower to cool off. Thus may have another day of highs in the lower 80s with some humidity, before cooling off toward more seasonable levels for Sun and Mon. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Through Today: High confidence. VFR, just an increasing canopy of mid/high clouds. Winds become NE around 5-10 kt, and around 10-15 kt near the eastern/southeast coasts. Tonight: High confidence, though moderate on patchy fog coverage. VFR. Patchy fog in at least the river valleys, but could also develop at BED and near OWD. Light NE winds, calm at times. Tuesday and Wednesday: High confidence. VFR through this period. NE winds around 5-10 kt Tue, becoming light Tue night, then becoming light SW on Wed. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. Winds become NE early (around 13-14z), but are expected to remain NE through the day. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overall high confidence. NE winds increase today to around 10-15 kt, higher on the southeast waters, which continue around 10-15 kt on Tue. Seas will be slowly building on the southeast outer waters to around 5 ft by early Tue, which has prompted issuance of a small craft advisory for Tue into 12z Wed for marginally high enough seas for the waters off Nantucket and the Outer Cape. Winds flip to SW around 10 kt on Wed, with seas less than 4 ft all waters. Outlook /Wednesday Night through Friday/... Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254-255. && $$ |
| #1243515 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 219 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend across the area through late week. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, a large area of low pressure will attempt to become cutoff across the Mid-Atlantic states, supporting a dry westerly flow across the Southeast United States. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to strengthen while building south into the local area, while broad troughing prevails offshore. The pattern will support dry conditions for all areas while north/northeasterly winds favor below normal temperatures despite ample sunshine. In general, high temps should range in the low-mid 80s, warmest across Southeast Georgia away from the beaches. These temps along with a fairly pinched pressure gradient across the local area should result in breezy conditions along the coastal corridor late morning and afternoon, with wind gusts peaking near 20-25 mph. Tonight: Very little change will occur in the overall pattern with high pressure persisting locally. Expect all areas to remain dry through the night. Light northeasterly winds under mostly clear skies should support overnight lows generally in the low-mid 60s inland to upper 60s/lower 70s near the coast (warmest along the beaches). && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure to the north will gradually weaken Tuesday through Thursday. Relatively dry PWs will persist inland Tuesday and Wednesday before things start to moisten back up on Thursday. Temps will return to near normal by Thursday. Little in the way of convection is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with isolated showers/tstms confined to coastal areas. Greater moisture and some upper shortwave energy may allow for scattered diurnal convection on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will rebuild Friday and Saturday, then a cold front could move through Sunday morning. Above normal temperatures expected Friday and Saturday though there will be little forcing for convection. A few showers or tstms will be possible Sunday as the front drops into the area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Tuesday. North/northeast wind gusts around 20 kt are possible at all terminals starting mid-late morning and should persist into late afternoon. Extended Aviation Forecast: Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: The pressure gradient will remain enhanced across local waters between strengthening high pressure inland and low pressure offshore. The pattern will continue to support Small Craft Advisory level conditions across all waters outside the Charleston Harbor through this evening, before the pressure gradient begins to show signs of relaxing during the second half of the night. North/northeasterly winds gusting up to 25-30 kt will be common for a good portion of the day off the coast, but then will weaken late day and generally range between 15-20 kt during the night. Seas will be slower to respond once winds weaken, but will generally range in the 5-8 ft range this morning through the afternoon (largest across outer Georgia waters), before subsiding to 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across outer Georgia waters overnight. For this reason, Small Craft Advisories should eventually come down across nearshore waters around midnight tonight, then near daybreak across outer Georgia waters. NE flow will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains to the north, however the gradient and thus wind speeds should remain below advisory thresholds. The flow turns southerly late week into the weekend. Rip Currents: Moderate swell, enhanced onshore flow, and above average tidal range will result in a high risk for rip currents today and a moderate risk on Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Persistent NE flow will maintain positive tidal anomalies of +1.0 to +1.4 ft through at least Wednesday. These could push tide levels at Charleston within a few tenths of a foot of minor flood stage during the afternoon high tides. A slight increase in the anomalies may result in flooding. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1243514 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 234 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Little change is expected through tonight. In the grand scheme of our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start September. A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funneling down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10 will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Broad upper trough across the eastern third of the US will remain in place as one upper low over the northeast US weakens and moves northeast while a stronger upper low dives from Canada towards the northern Great Lakes. Northeast low level flow will continue with high pressure over the Appalachians and the pesky stationary boundary to our south. As a cold front advances into the upper midwest Wednesday, aforementioned high pressure gets shunted eastward as well as the stationary boundary gaining momentum to push northeast and away from the region. This will break the low level northeast flow and send a pair of cold fronts toward the Gulf coast as the upper low spins across the Great Lakes region and back into southern Canada; the first arriving Friday but with dry air in place the arrival will be of little fanfare. The second front is at the end of this forecast period and appears to slow as it reaches the Gulf coast. PWATs will be fairly low (1.1-1.3 inches) through midweek with continued northeast low level flow and drier air from the Appalachians. The seabreeze will be pinned closer to the coast and low rain chances there and the southeast Big Bend. Heading into later this week, the northeast flow clocks to more of a westerly component with PWATs slowly increasing but more mid level dry air keeping rain chances low. It may not be till later next weekend that we experience an increase in rain chances with the second front possibly stalling and PWATs jumping back towards 2 inches. Temperature-wise through the week highs will slowly tick up into the low to mid 90s by Saturday while lows will mainly be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR through the period. Steady northeast winds overnight from high pressure to the north will persist with some gustiness (15-20 knots) from late morning through the afternoon today. High clouds will continue to stream through the aerodromes from a disturbance in the southern Plains with a little less afternoon stratocu owing to drier low/mid level northeast flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Small craft advisories remain in effect for the Gulf waters through this morning in waters east of Apalachicola and this afternoon in waters west of Apalachicola. Additional advisories may be needed tonight into Tuesday morning as well. As high pressure is anchored to our north and a stationary front to our south, northeast winds between these two features will persist into mid week. Nightly offshore surges are expected till then with ongoing advisories currently and possibly needed tonight as near 20 knot winds develop through Apalachee Bay transitioning to off the panhandle coast. Towards the end of this work week, winds slacken and clock to the west as the stationary boundary moves eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 High pressure to the north will promote northeast winds over the next few days as well as drier air. Transport winds this afternoon will range between 15 to 20 mph while slightly lower speeds into mid week. Mixing heights will range between 4000 to 6000 feet with afternoon humidities falling into the low to mid 40 percent range. High dispersions today will be located through most of the Florida districts as well as the Alabama wiregrass region. Rain chances through mid week will be located mainly near the coast and southeast Florida Big Bend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 233 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Comparably drier conditions will continue this week by late August and early September standards. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts through next weekend will average an inch or less. Therefore, no flash or riverine flooding is expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 65 88 67 / 10 0 10 10 Panama City 89 68 89 71 / 10 10 10 20 Dothan 86 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 85 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 64 88 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cross City 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 30 20 Apalachicola 87 71 85 73 / 20 10 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751- 752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1243513 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 231 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Onshore flow leads to a few more clouds today with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels. Early morning analysis shows 1028mb high pressure centered in southern Ontario but ridging south into the local area. Surface troughing off the SE CONUS has moved a bit farther offshore. An upper trough/closed low remains nearly stationary over the eastern CONUS. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some low stratus moving onshore across the OBX, generally south of the Albemarle Sound. Expecting another gorgeous day today with temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and low humidity. Still a bit breezy from the NE today (especially near the coast) as the pressure gradient remains steep between high pressure to the north and the trough offshore. Expecting a bit more in the way of cumulus clouds today with continued onshore flow. A stray shower is possible near the coast in NE NC this afternoon but latest CAM guidance shows very little support for this scenario. Clouds thin out this evening with low temps falling back into the 50s inland and low 60s for SE VA and NE NC. A few spots may be able to fall into the upper 40s as winds will be light with less cloud cover expected away from the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: - Slow warming trend is expected from Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure moves offshore. Continued dry and pleasant Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s. Not quite as cool overnight with lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warming up a bit on Wednesday as high pressure translates offshore and winds swing around the SE. Afternoon highs mainly in the low 80s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s during the afternoon. 00z guidance is in good agreement keeping the entire area dry Wednesday and Wednesday night with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows inch upward as well with most locations seeing upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into early Friday as a weakening front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Thursday through Saturday with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers increases into Thursday night and early Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. QPF continues to look rather light with a few tenths to perhaps a quarter inch of precip. 00z models show the front washing out across the region with winds remaining S or SW into Saturday. Accordingly, no longer expecting an airmass change or even a wind shift for Friday and Saturday. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Friday with 60s dew points. Warmest day looks to be Saturday ahead of another front approaching from the northwest. Afternoon highs range from the mid 80s NE to the low 90s for NE NC. Deep moisture looks to be lacking with this front as well. The front is forecast to move through the area Saturday night with a return to cooler and drier conditions expected on Sunday. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/01 TAF period. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some stratus noted off the NC OBX that may move into the ECG vicinity over the next few hours. Winds are light NE inland but are still 10-15 kt at ORF and 5-10 kt at ECG. Latest guidance has backed off on the potential for MVFR CIGs toward sunrise with the NAM the only hold out. Still think clouds will be thicker today than they were on Sunday but likely remaining VFR. NE winds continue and become gusty near the coast as mixing gets underway by mid morning. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish tonight-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay today into Tuesday. Early this morning, weak low pressure is located well offshore. Meanwhile, ~1028 mb high pressure continues to build from the north. The pressure gradient between the two features has resulted increased NE winds over the waters. Latest observations show NE winds around 15 to 20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots over the southern half of the waters and 10 to 15 knots further north. Seas/waves also continue to build, with 5 to 6 ft (locally up to 7 ft) seas south and 3 to 5 ft north. Waves in the bay range from 2 to 3 ft (3 to 4 ft at the mouth). High pressure will remain in place into Wednesday. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward today into tonight. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, today into tonight. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters through today and into Tuesday. SCAs are also in effect for the Chesapeake Bay into this afternoon/evening. By this evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast for much of the remainder of the forecast period. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas today, with 4 to 6 ft seas forecast. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated into Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria later Tuesday. The rip current risk will is high for the southern beaches today, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1243512 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 N/NE flow with relatively drier conditions expected through the cycle, but some shower/storm chances remain particularly mid afternoon through early evening with southward propagating convection within the overall flow, prompting PROB30 groups generally within the 18-24Z period for greatest likelihood. Light winds overnight increase to N/NE 5-10 knots by early afternoon, turning onshore for a few hours at southern terminals, generally remaining within that range through the end of the cycle, although slightly higher winds with some gustiness will be possible in the evening before diminishing overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 90 77 / 50 20 60 40 FMY 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 70 50 GIF 89 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30 SRQ 90 74 88 75 / 50 30 60 50 BKV 89 71 89 71 / 50 10 50 30 SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1243511 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through the period, with occasional moderate to heavy showers potentially resulting in brief periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities. A TEMPO group for MVFR visibilities was used overnight through the predawn hours on Monday at SGJ, with a PROB30 group for IFR visibilities during the morning and early afternoon hours. Confidence was too low for anything other than vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while dry conditions will likely continue at GNV and SSI. Occasional MVFR ceilings of 2,000 - 3,000 feet will continue at the northeast FL terminals, while VFR ceilings above 3,000 feet prevail at SSI until around 00Z Tuesday, when ceilings may then lower to around 3,000 feet. Strong northeasterly surface winds will continue at SGJ, with sustained speeds around 20 knots with frequent gusts around 30 knots through 00Z Tuesday. Sustained surface speeds of 10-15 knots at CRG and SSI and around 10 knots at the inland terminals overnight will increase to around 15 knots and gusty towards 14Z. Surface speeds will then diminish to 5-10 knots at the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal terminals after 02Z Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Northeast surge of winds will continue to work its way southward through this afternoon and evening, pushing the frontal boundary south of the region into Central Florida, while high pressure nudges southward down the SE US coastline. This will continue to set up convergent bands of locally heavy rainfall along the Atlantic Coastal counties and I-95 corridor from metro JAX southward through St. Johns/Flagler counties, so far still counting on these to be transient enough to lessen any widespread Flooding issues and will hold off on Flood Watch for now, but with 2-4 inch rainfall amounts possible over the next 48-72 hours with isolated higher amounts around 6 inches, this may be required if the NE surge of winds does not push the low level convergence bulls-eye further down the NE FL coastline. Breezy conditions have already developed for all areas with sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph, while windy conditions are expected closer to the immediate Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin with sustained winds of 20-25 mph with peak winds of 30-40 mph expected, but still remaining just below Wind Advisory criteria. Diurnal heating into the lower/middle 80s over inland areas should still be enough to trigger scattered showers and isolated storms over inland NE FL where enough deep moisture still remains with PWATs in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Convection over inland areas will fade after sunset, leaving just numerous showers and embedded/isolated storms continue over the Atlantic Coastal waters and into the NE FL coastal counties with occasional convergent rain bands from time to time from JAX southward along the entire NE FL coastline. Further inland partial clearing and slightly drier airmass will support low temps down into the middle 60s across inland SE GA and upper 60s/lower 70s across inland NE FL and generally middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas. While some low level stratus is expected at times over inland areas, the elevated NE winds inland at 5-10 mph will reduce the chance of fog formation, while breezy winds at 15-20G30 mph will continue along the entire NE FL/SE GA coastline through the night. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure will build down the east coast of the US Monday, as the frontal zone sinks toward southern FL. A weak inverted trough will be along the coast, resulting in enhanced winds at area beaches. Drier air will keep interior SE GA dry, with highest precipitation chances over coastal NE FL. This pattern will persist through Tuesday night. While the greatest chance for precipitation will be during the heating of the day, the moist onshore flow could keep chances going through the night, especially at the coast. Temperatures will trend below normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As the high builds more toward the north northeast Wednesday, the frontal zone will lift back north across the area. As the front moves back into area, moisture will increase, resulting in higher precipitation chances. The high will move further away to the northeast Wednesday night into Thursday, as the frontal zone largely dissipates. With the front not as much of a factor, Thursday is expected to be a little drier day. High pressure will be to the northeast Friday. A weak cold front will move southeast into area over the weekend. Precipitation chances from Friday through Sunday are expected to range from isolated to scattered. Temperatures will trend near to a little above normal this period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 High pressure to the north of the region will wedge down the southeastern seaboard through tonight, continuing a surge of northeasterly winds and building seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through early Tuesday. Waves of showers and embedded thunderstorms will impact our local waters through midweek. Northeasterly winds will begin to gradually weaken late Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for seas to gradually subside. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will then decrease later this week as prevailing winds shift to westerly ahead of a series of approaching cold fronts. Rip Currents: High risk of rip currents will continue Monday and Tuesday in the Northeast flow pattern with surf/breakers reaching into the 4-6 ft range at times, but at this time still expected to remain below high surf advisory criteria of 7 feet. Minor to locally Moderate beach erosion can be expected at times of high tide, but coastal flooding is not expected. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1221 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Will continue to monitor heavy rainfall potential along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coastal Counties of NE FL through the entire Labor Day weekend and the possibility of Flood Watch issuance as still expecting 2-4 inch rainfall totals over the next 2 to 3 days in this corridor with locally higher amounts up to 6 inches possible. Middle St. Johns River Basin south of JAX to Palatka vicinity will continue to run at elevated/Action stage water levels as the Northeast flow pattern traps some of the higher water levels in the basin. Minor flooding will be possible in the Putnam county areas if this pattern lingers into the Monday/Tuesday time frame with water levels reaching 1.5 ft above MHHW, but too early to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory products at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 84 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 82 72 83 73 / 20 10 30 10 JAX 84 72 86 72 / 30 10 50 20 SGJ 84 75 85 74 / 60 30 60 30 GNV 86 69 88 70 / 40 10 40 20 OCF 86 72 88 72 / 50 10 50 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-138-233- 333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452- 454-470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1243510 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 209 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather continues across South Florida as deep upper-level troughing remains established over the Eastern Seaboard. Satellite and observational data early this morning show an surface boundary moving southward along the Florida peninsula, nearing the Lake Okeechobee region. This southward progression will help focus moisture transport across our area today. With this enhanced moisture profile and the boundary knocking at our door, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon, especially in areas along and south of Alligator Alley. Guidance continues to indicate widespread rainfall accumulations up to 1 inch could be possible, with pockets of 1-2 inches along the East Coast metro, and up to 3 inches in isolated spots. High-res models have struggled with representing this wet, splotchy pattern over the past couple of days, and continue to do so this morning, with much uncertainty remaining regarding the development of an Atlantic sea breeze, and ultimately how far south the boundary makes it today. Another element of added uncertainty will be the potential presence of a weak area of low pressure attached to that boundary, which could settle nearby or over the region today or tomorrow and help enhance convective activity. Nevertheless, given this discussion, and recent rainfall over the last few days, localized flooding concerns cannot be ruled out, and WPC is keeping the East Coast metro area of South Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. On Tuesday, similar conditions are expected as the boundary is forecast to become quasy-stationary over South Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches remain possible, with isolated higher amounts once again favoring southeast FL. Highs both days will remain in the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s inland, and mid to upper 70s near the coasts. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The period of unsettled weather will remain in place through much of the upcoming week as the frontal boundary stalls across South Florida and upper-level trough lingers over the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to support repeated rounds of rainfall each afternoon this week, with at least a marginal risk for localized flooding each day, particularly along the East Coast metro where westerly flow will continue to focus activity. High temperatures through the extended period will generally range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid 70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light and variable winds prevail early this morning, with mostly VFR conditions expected. Winds will become more westerly to southwesterly this afternoon, and periods of sub-VFR conditions could be possible as scattered showers and storms are forecast to move across the East Coast metro. Conditions will improve overnight, when winds will become light and variable once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds will prevail today across all local waters, with seas at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Kendall 91 76 91 76 / 80 50 80 60 Opa-Locka 91 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Homestead 90 76 90 76 / 80 50 70 60 Fort Lauderdale 91 77 92 77 / 80 50 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 91 78 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 Pembroke Pines 92 77 93 77 / 80 50 80 60 West Palm Beach 91 77 91 76 / 80 50 80 50 Boca Raton 91 76 93 76 / 80 50 80 60 Naples 91 77 91 77 / 80 40 70 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243508 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 201 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the north will maintain control into the middle of the week. A weak cold front late in the week could lead to a few showers. Slightly better rain chances Sunday into Monday as a somewhat stronger front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Decent bit of dry air advected into the area in northerly flow between high extending in from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary. The axis of dry air was very apparent with pcp water values down just below .8 inches into the Coastal Carolinas. This will get nudged farther inland some through today as winds become slightly more NE catching some of the Atlantic moisture and bringing pcp water values back up above and inch. Overall, still expecting a dry day with plenty of sunshine mixing with fairly flat cu in the aftn and some cirrus aloft. Will not rule out a stray shower along coastal SC toward the early evening. Cool northeasterly flow will maintain below normal temps in the lower 80s this afternoon and overnight lows between 60 and 65 most places, with some temps dropping just below 60, mainly west of I-95. Should see another breezy day with gusty NE winds coming day a bit into tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Center of elongated surface ridge to the northwest of the local area and troughing at 5h sets up a pattern more typical of the cool season, with predictable results. Temperatures will run a little below normal, but with little to no rain chances through the middle of the week. Varying amounts of mid-level moisture will lead to some patches of high clouds spreading over the Southeast, but there isn`t enough moisture for showers despite some marginal instability. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Longwave 5h trough will remain over the East Coast into next week. A series of shortwaves will push a couple cold fronts through the region this weekend. Return flow ahead of the first front, slated for Fri night into Sat, may kick off a few showers and maybe even a thunderstorm Thu and Fri afternoon. However, forcing is limited and precipitable water is generally below normal so coverage would be quite limited. Second front moves into the area Sun, accompanied by a bit more moisture which may be converted into some scattered convection. However, the overall pattern lends more to stretched out, moisture starved fronts. Similar to what we see later in the fall and in early to mid spring, our driest times, so probably best to not count on much rain through the long term. Temperatures above normal into Sat before cooler air moves in next week, dropping temperatures below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the period. Persistent NE flow between high pressure extending in from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary off the Southeast coast, will become gusty at times this afternoon. Sounding profiles show some flat cu developing around 3-5k ft this aftn mixing with some higher cirrus. Overall, a dry forecast, although a couple of the models show a stray shower may affect MYR/CRE into early this evening with potential for very brief MVFR, but chances are too low to include any mention in TAFs. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR with very brief restrictions possible due to a passing SHRA close to the coast. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through today as gusty northeast winds persist in tightened gradient flow between high pressure extending down into the Carolinas from the north and low pressure along old frontal boundary in the offshore waters. Winds will reach up around 25 kts with some higher gusts. Seas will remain 4 to 6 ft through the afternoon but will diminish to under 6 ft by late day from south to north as the low moves farther away. By this evening, seas will diminish to 3 to 5 ft except for the outer waters, mainly beyond 15 nm. Tuesday through Friday... Location of surface ridge axis maintains northeast flow Tue and Wed before the ridge axis shifts northeast. The moving of the ridge axis opens the door for return flow. Light southeast Thu becomes south to southwest Fri with increasing speeds as the gradient becomes more defined. Seas will trend down through the week as the northeast wind wave gradually drops out and an east to southeast swell becomes more apparent. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Other - Rip Currents: High risk for strong rip currents for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. Breaking waves around 3 ft and the onshore swell direction today create conditions that favor the development of strong rip currents. A strong north to south longshore current will develop today along the beaches of Pender and New Hanover counties in North Carolina and along the beaches of Horry and Georgetown counties in South Carolina. The strong long shore current may limit the number of rip currents, however conditions will be conducive for the development of strong rip currents. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ |
| #1243507 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 145 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a HIGH risk for life- threatening rip currents at the Volusia coast beaches. A Moderate risk for rip currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. - Marine conditions will deteriorate over the local Volusia coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increase to near 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the Volusia waters. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Recent CAM guidance (HRRR/NAM/ARW) suggests a band of heavy rainfall developing along the northern flank of the center of the weak low pressure currently over the Atlantic. KMLB WSR-88D scans place this feature over the local Atlantic waters north of Cape Canaveral. Based on the current trajectory, it appears reasonable that this low will move onshore into the local area overnight. What remains in question is whether the band of showers and storms will be as robust as the HRRR suggests, as that would lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat for coastal areas (and possibly as far inland as Sanford/Deltona) north of the Cape, and where it sets up overnight. While the low-level flow is forecast to be onshore (NE/NNE), it is light compared to the W mean flow. This leads to a Corfidi vector from the W of at least 20 kts. Thus, the inland propagation of heavy rainfall may be limited, though the coast will likely remain at risk. Also, while there has been reasonable run to run consistency in the HRRR over the last couple of runs, this feature was not present in earlier forecasts this afternoon. However, bands of showers have already begun to develop over the Atlantic waters over the last hour or so. It`s unclear whether this is the consolidated band beginning to develop. All of this to say, low confidence in the forecast overnight. Although, there does appear to be a risk of locally heavy rainfall along the coast north of the Cape, possibly extending as far inland as near Deltona. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall for much of the forecast area overnight. Rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with locally higher amounts, are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .Update...Issued a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the Volusia waters 0-60nm. Low pressure was developing along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary along the north Brevard/Volusia coasts. This was creating a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increase to near 20 kts with occasional gusts to Gale Force. Seas were also building 5 to 7 feet here as well. The SCA will continue through 10 pm Monday evening. Will address any Cautionary Statement possibilities for the Brevard waters for Monday with the overnight forecast package. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A meso low evident on the KMLB radar just northeast of KTIX should shift south thru today along with a frontal boundary that will sag southward and reach the srn Treasure Coast terminals this aftn shifting winds to the NE. A tighter pressure gradient on the backside of the low and frontal boundary will produce gusty winds at KDAB through the period and become gusty at times for cstl terminals by this aftn. Local MVFR CIGs mainly north of a KISM- KTIX line thru 13z this morning, otherwise mainly VFR outside of passing SHRA/TSRA today. By tonight...all terminals will be behind the front with low shower chances mainly confined to coastal terminals aft 02z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 75 86 75 / 70 40 60 30 MCO 87 75 88 74 / 70 20 70 30 MLB 87 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 40 VRB 89 75 89 74 / 70 40 70 50 LEE 86 74 88 74 / 30 20 60 30 SFB 86 75 88 75 / 70 30 60 30 ORL 86 75 88 75 / 70 20 70 30 FPR 89 73 90 72 / 70 40 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243506 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1252 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 -Heat continues to be a concern on Monday with a Moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4 )Heat risk. -Rain chances increase on Monday and Tuesday. -The Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight portions of Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Heat continues to be the a concern for the start of the forecast period. Mid-level ridging and moisture advection with south- southeasterly winds will continue to bring hot temperatures rising into the upper 90s to 100s and heat indices between 105 to 110 degrees across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Monday. This will maintain a moderate (level 2 out of 4) to Major (level 3 out of 4) Heat risk for the region. While heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory criteria, Special Weather Statements will be needed. With that said, a cold front begins to push southward into the CWA on Monday. This will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday (40-50%). Rainfall and cloud cover associated with the cold front could limit afternoon high temperatures, heat indices, and heat risk. WPC has portions of the Northern Ranchlands in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for Monday into Monday night. The NBM 90th percentile is at around 1 to 1.5 inches and mean around 0.5 inch of rainfall for the marginal area, so confidence on the excessive rainfall is somewhat low. With the said, forecasted PWATs will be around 1.75 inches, which is above normal so any showers or thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to ponding of water, especially on roadways and low lying areas. The aforementioned cold front will move through the CWA Monday night, but lift back north across Deep South Texas on Tuesday. This will keep rain chances (50-70%) in the forecast for Tuesday. Temperatures cool slightly, but will remain near to just above seasonal norms through Thursday. Rain chances taper off Tuesday night and the front finally pushes south of the region. POPs will generally remain around 15% or less for Wednesday through Friday. As we head into next weekend, we are still watching for the potential of another front pushing through or stalling across Deep South Texas that will increase rain chances and lower temperatures slightly for the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Predominately VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the period, however rain chances will begin increasing this afternoon with the approach of a weak cold front. MVFR ceilings and visibilities could develop if any showers or thunderstorms move over an airfield. Light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected to shift easterly or northeasterly this afternoon as the front moves into the region. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Generally favorable conditions with mostly light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and seas of 1 to 2 feet. A frontal boundary will move through the waters off the lower Texas coast on Monday increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday (50-70%). This could lead to locally elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 79 95 78 / 30 30 60 30 HARLINGEN 97 75 95 73 / 40 40 60 10 MCALLEN 101 79 98 77 / 30 40 60 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 77 97 75 / 20 60 50 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 30 40 50 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 77 93 77 / 30 40 60 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243505 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1250 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 An upper level trough will remain over the eastern CONUS through the week. The local area will be on the backside of the trough with a resultant northwest upper flow pattern. This will result in building high pressure across the area and associated continued dry conditions. A couple of shortwaves will rotate through the upper trough during the week with an isolated shower or storm possible, however most areas will remain dry as the deep moisture remains shunted well south over the Gulf. High temps will warm into the low 90s through the end of the week with lows also gradually increasing as well. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue through Tuesday, becoming a low risk Wednesday through Friday. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A light to moderate easterly flow becomes established this afternoon through Tuesday. A light diurnal flow returns for Wednesday evening through the weekend with onshore flow during the afternoon into evening hours and offshore flow late overnight into the morning hours each day. Small craft should exercise caution over the open gulf waters this morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 88 67 90 69 91 70 92 / 0 20 10 20 10 10 0 10 Pensacola 67 87 70 89 72 90 73 91 / 0 20 10 20 10 10 0 10 Destin 70 87 72 87 73 88 75 89 / 10 20 10 20 10 10 0 10 Evergreen 61 89 64 91 66 92 66 93 / 0 10 10 20 10 10 0 0 Waynesboro 63 88 64 89 65 90 65 91 / 0 20 10 30 10 0 0 0 Camden 62 88 65 89 66 90 66 90 / 0 10 10 20 10 0 0 0 Crestview 62 88 64 90 66 90 68 91 / 0 10 10 20 10 10 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243504 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - One more day with scattered to numerous storms, along with a threat of localized heavy rain sticks with us for the holiday. A marginal risk of excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) is in place for most of the area today. - More tranquil conditions are expected for mid-week as drier air filters into the region. Isolated showers and storms may still pester the coast on Tuesday, with storm development gradually be pushed out over the Gulf by Wednesday. - Of course, with fewer storms and clouds and without meaningfully cooler air moving in, high temperatures can also be expected to increase, with some highs creeping towards the middle 90s for Wednesday and Thursday. The drier air, though, will at least allow for cooler temperatures at night, as lows gradually slide through the 70s and into the upper 60s inland. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Even when we`re pretty confident that a holiday won`t give us an infamous flooding event, the atmosphere still wanted to give us a reminder of what it can do when things line up the wrong way. Given the moisture and instability present, we had some expectation that we could see localized flooding concerns emerge, and we did indeed see that. The biggest instance of this occurred in Houston, where 3-7 inches of rain fell in portions roughly near the South and East Loop prompting a flash flood warning, street flooding, and some water rescues. Fortunately, we did not significantly overperform expectations as less than 2 inches fell for most, area streams and bayous stayed within banks, keeping the most serious issues in more flood-prone spots. Going into the Labor Day holiday itself, we should see another day with scattered to numerous storms cropping up. Indeed, the truth is it`s not *truly* coming to an end tonight, but all storms overnight will be out over the Gulf. Look for potential showers to creep back onshore as early as the pre-dawn hours, but the window for the day`s storms to really flourish should hold off until the mid-day and afternoon. Now, the front we`ve been talking about so much is offshore over the Gulf now. However, the frontal surface aloft at, say, 925 or 850 mb is...not so much. On the bright side, this may temper gusty winds if storms are just a bit elevated, though winds have not really been so much a problem this weekend to begin with. One thing it won`t do is stop the rain from reaching the ground, and precipitable water values remain high. Northeastish winds at the surface help out some, but at this late hour we still have PWATs around/above 2 inches, and that doesn`t look to change a ton. HREF probabilities of PWATs above 2 inches remain near 100 percent from roughly I-10 coastward until late Monday night, and for much of our area north of I-10, HREF probs are still more likely than not that they are at/above two inches, as dry air filters in only slowly. But, since we are getting some erosion of the 90th percentile and up levels of precipitable water, I`d expect that the best potential for strong storms and big downpours will focus closer to the coast today. WPC still draws a marginal risk area for excessive rain all the way up to College Station and Huntsville. This does still seem appropriate with the slower drawdown of moisture, but there is surely a gradient in the underlying probability of excessive rain that is being hidden in that categorical outlook. One nice thing is that the coastal areas have generally been less hit by stronger storms so far this weekend, so they will be better poised to absorb the blows of any heavier downpours. If I were to highlight an area of locally higher concern, it may be in that area of Houston south of the Loop. This area is on the fringe of that "coastal" area with more potential for heavy rains - so while the probability of a big rainer isn`t the highest in the area, it`s high enough when balanced with the 3-7 inches of rain they just got, making them more susceptible to flooding. If they are able to dodge a strong storm, then no harm. I`ll be crossing my fingers for that, but crossed fingers ain`t a plan - so let`s all do our best to stay weather aware in that area today, and promised not to drive through water-covered roads of unknown depth! After Labor Day, things should start to get a little calmer. A deep eastern US trough will keep us in northwest flow, which isn`t always great, but with a mid-week reinforcing trough helping get even more dry air into the area, we should reach a point where it doesn`t matter so much. I`ve still got us down for some isolated to scattered convection on Tuesday as moisture levels draw down, but I finally have the confidence to go dry for everywhere but well offshore for the middle chunk of the week. Of course, the flip side of this is that the cooler temperatures we`ve gotten from the clouds and rain will also go away, with at least seasonably hot temperatures coming back for Wednesday and Thursday, plus some hotspots making runs for the middle 90s. At least the drier air should help make those temps feel a little less oppressive than typical, and also allow for things to get a little bit cooler than average at night. Finally, we`re still looking at another front at the end of the week, but wow...after having such optimism a few nights ago, I`ve all but lost the entirety of those good feelings (as a long-time pessimism-leaning realist, that`ll teach me). We are still looking at some appearance of unseasonably strong trough in the Southern Plains, but it`s now tied more to the barely-there reinforcing front and entirely out of the picture by late week. The Euro ensemble does still briefly bring some 10th percentile 850 temps across the Red River, but only for Tuesday night. By late week, both the EPS and NAEFS mean 850 temps are nowhere near those low probabilities, and now even some 90th percentile temps are emerging. So...yup...guess I did well to only hedge slightly against the NBM at the end of the week. At this point, I am now barely deviating from the deterministic NBM numbers, except to erase the not-actually-real Piney Woods hotspot it has. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025 TSRA has pushed offshore while lingering SHRA continues across the region. This SHRA activity should diminish this evening. Areas of low vis/cigs expected to develop overnight, mostly north of IAH. However, we cannot rule out sub-VFR conditions making it into the Houston area. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA is uncertain tomorrow. The activity today may have taken enough energy from the atmosphere to limit tomorrow`s SHRA/TSRA to isolated or widely scattered. For now, we have kept VCSH and PROB30 for -TSRA in the TAFs from IAH to the coast tomorrow. Winds will generally be light and variable. If TSRA develops tomorrow, then locally higher winds will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 The remains of a stalled front will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region today. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Since expectations are that the better potential for storms today will be closer to the coast, these storms could impact the coastal waters as well, particularly the bays and nearshore Gulf. Winds outside of storms will generally be light and variable, while becoming erratic and gusty in and around any storms. Rain chances decrease significantly by the middle of the week, while winds and seas are expected to remain rather light/low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 92 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 92 74 94 / 20 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 89 80 90 / 30 40 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243503 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1247 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms today, continuing into Tuesday. - WPC has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across South TX through tonight. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the cards today, aided by forecast PWATs near 2 inches, the stalling of a weak frontal boundary, and periodic mid-level shortwaves passing overhead and providing additional lift. Similar to yesterday, storms will continue to focus along and east of the Coastal Plains through tonight, though some convection could extend farther west into the Brush Country today based on current CAM guidance. Current guidance is also unfortunately still split on the evolution of available moisture this far south. Additionally, CRP sounding PWATs have been measuring slightly lower than the model PWATs. NBM PoPs are still coming in too high for my liking given all this uncertainty, so lowered them a bit this forecast package. Rain chances do remain highest across the Coastal Plains (40-60%) and lower farther inland (20-40%). Given the forecast moisture and slow storm motions, localized flash flooding will be possible, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across South Texas today and tonight. While today`s rainfall totals will generally range between 0.25-0.50 inches as indicated by ensemble 50th percentile 24-hour QPF guidance, localized pockets of higher totals are possible where storms repeatedly move over the same areas. Rain chances diminish late on Tuesday as the aforementioned boundary drifts southward and drier air filters into the region from the north. From midweek onward, a return to hotter and drier conditions is expected with highs climbing back into the mid-90s near the coast and near 100 inland by Wednesday and Thursday. Heat safety will once again become the primary concern through late week. There is some model guidance that suggests that another disturbance may try and move through the region this weekend, bringing with it additional low to medium chances (30-40%) for rain. However, this is almost a week from now, and more time will be needed to continue to monitor model trends in order to refine this forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Lower confidence aviation forecast than is typical with questions in when convection will occur for all sites. Guidance is all over the place with timing and location. Between 10Z Monday Through 00Z Tuesday, can`t definitively rule out showers/storms for any site, but have indicated the most likely scenario in current TAFs. Most guidance suggests dry conditions Monday evening into the nighttime. While mainly VFR conditions are expected, MVFR CIGS and VIS would be possible in and around showers/storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeast winds this afternoon and evening will become gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) north-northeast winds tonight through Wednesday afternoon. A medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening through Tuesday before chances diminish through Tuesday night. Winds will return to onshore flow late Wednesday/early Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 76 93 75 / 50 40 30 0 Victoria 91 72 95 72 / 40 20 20 0 Laredo 98 77 98 75 / 40 50 30 10 Alice 94 75 96 72 / 40 40 30 0 Rockport 90 77 93 77 / 50 40 30 10 Cotulla 93 75 98 74 / 50 30 20 0 Kingsville 94 75 94 72 / 50 40 40 0 Navy Corpus 89 80 90 80 / 60 40 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243500 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 114 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry and very pleasant conditions are expected with below average temperatures through the middle of the week. A cold front approaches late week with slightly warmer temperatures and a chance for showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 930 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - Dry weather and below average temperatures continue tonight with lows mainly in the 50s, except near the immediate coast where lows will range through the 60s with onshore flow. Evening WX analysis shows high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes building E-SE toward the area, with a deep trough aloft over the eastern CONUS. Cloud cover has generally diminished since sunset, but a small area with SCT-BKN cu lingers over interior SE VA. Winds remain elevated with gusts to ~20 mph near the immediate coast in SE VA and NE NC, but rapidly diminish just a short distance inland. Temperatures have dropped off into the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the region, with locally much warmer values at the immediate coast where the winds remain elevated off the water. Winds should mostly be light/calm inland overnight, with a NE wind of 10-15 mph continuing near the immediate coast. Widespread lows from 50-55F are expected inland, with mid 60s in far SE VA/NE NC. Similar to Sunday morning, a few spots will likely drop into the upper 40s. These values, while as much as 15 degrees cooler than normal for some inland areas, are still not expected to set any record lows at our long-term climate sites. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Message: - The streak of abnormally cool and dry August weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with slightly warmer temperatures expected on Wednesday. The large surface high to our north remains in control on Mon/Tue, which will lead to continued NE flow along with dry/pleasant wx with mainly mid-upper 70s as highs. Remaining breezy near the coast on Monday as coastal low pressure deepens offshore. Still think the low remains far enough offshore to keep rain chances out of the area but there could be a stray shower or two near the northern OBX Monday afternoon. Mostly sunny for most of the area with more clouds expected SE/closer to the coastal trough/low. Temperatures will be similar on Tuesday with some afternoon cumulus clouds. Widespread 50s are expected inland on both Mon/Tue night, with lower-mid 60s near the coast. The high shifts offshore on Wednesday, allowing the low-level flow to become more southeasterly. At the same time, a weak shortwave approaches from the west with stronger low pressure diving SE from central Canada to the NW Great Lakes. Modest moisture return is expected with aftn dew points rising to ~60F. However, it will very likely remain dry with perhaps a bit more in the way of cloud cover. Forecast highs Wed are a few degrees higher than on Mon/Tue. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - Chance for showers and maybe a few storms returns Thursday into Friday as a front approaches the region from the west. - Warmer temperatures are expected from Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid to locally upper 80s possible. The strong low over the Great Lakes drags a cold front toward the area on Thursday. This feature could help trigger showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest chances NW with PoPs of 20% or less SE) as the low level flow increases out of the south. Noticeably warmer on Thu with highs in the low to mid 80s with a modest increase in humidity as dew points creep back into the low and mid 60s. Chance for showers continues into Thursday night and Friday, especially across the northern half of the area. There won`t be much in the way of CAA with the front on Thu/Thu night. In fact, forecast highs are a few degrees warmer (lower-upper 80s) on Fri/Sat with 60s dew pts. Still a low confidence forecast from Friday into the weekend as the 12z GFS continues to show higher precip chances than the ECMWF (mainly on Sat/Sat night). The ECMWF has no more than isolated showers in the forecast. Regardless, not really expecting a widespread soaking rain, as GEFS/EPS ensemble guidance has areal avg amounts of less than 0.25" across the area from Friday-Sunday. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 AM EDT Monday... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the 06z/01 TAF period. Satellite shows mostly clear skies across the area with some stratus noted off the NC OBX that may move into the ECG vicinity over the next few hours. Winds are light NE inland but are still 10-15 kt at ORF and 5-10 kt at ECG. Latest guidance has backed off on the potential for MVFR CIGs toward sunrise with the NAM the only hold out. Still think clouds will be thicker today than they were on Sunday but likely remaining VFR. NE winds continue and become gusty near the coast as mixing gets underway by mid morning. Outlook: VFR conditions persist, with dry weather through at least midweek. Winds diminish tonight-Tue. && .MARINE... As of 307 PM EDT Sunday... - A prolonged period of elevated onshore flow is expected through Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for a portions of the coastal waters and Chesapeake Bay this afternoon into Monday night. With the low developing off the SE coast and the high building into our north, the gradient across the coastal waters has tightened this afternoon. This has resulted in rapidly building seas off the NC coast, with observed sea heights nearing 6 ft already this afternoon. Sea heights north of Cape Henry range between 2-4 ft, and waves are between 1-3 ft. Marine-based sites are measuring winds of 10-20 kts, with the highest winds in the southern waters. High pressure will remain in place through early next week. The area of low pressure off the Southeast coast will start to lift northeastward over the next day or so. The gradient between the high to our north and low to our south will remain tightened, leading to a period increased onshore flow, especially across our southern waters, through early next week. Wind speeds will average 10 to 20 knots during this time (highest S), but a period of 15 to 20 knot to near 20 kts winds is likely today through Monday south of Cape Henry. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the southern coastal waters and will expand to the remainder of the coastal waters through early tomorrow morning. Decided to include the northern Bay zones in the SCA tomorrow morning, though this may be a more marginal SCA than the southern Bay. By tomorrow evening, the coastal waters will be the only coastal zones in the SCA due to lingering seas. Winds will relax a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday with mainly sub-SCA winds in the forecast late next week. The persistent onshore flow will result in building seas through early next week, with 4 to 6 feet seas forecast starting today. Will need to keep an eye on especially the southern waters, as they may continue to overperform in terms of sea heights. Adjustments will be made to the wave height forecast as necessary. Seas will remain elevated through Tuesday before gradually starting to subside below SCA criteria. The rip current risk will be high for the southern beaches tomorrow, with a moderate rip risk for the northern beaches. The high rip risk will expand to northern beaches by Tuesday. The high rip risk will remain through Wednesday due to lingering seas and continued shore normal swells, though it will be more marginal than Tuesday as winds and seas will both be subsiding. && .CLIMATE... August 2025 will make the top 10 list for the coolest Augusts on record at Richmond, Salisbury, and Elizabeth City. Average Monthly Temperature and rankings are listed below: - RIC: 73.8F (-3.7) 7th coolest on record, coolest since 1992. - SBY: 71.5F (-4.3) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 2008. - ECG: 75.4F (-3.0) 3rd coolest on record, coolest since 1996. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632- 633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ634-652-654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650. && $$ |
| #1243498 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1203 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Upper ridging over the Rockies tonight. Upper troughs from the Canadian Maritime Provinces to Virginia, and over the Canadian Prairie Provinces with weak ridging in between. This is producing northwesterly mid-level flow over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Going by surface winds, the frontal boundary is offshore, and so is any lingering convection this evening. Drying was noticeable on the LIX evening sounding with the precipitable water value at 1.56 inches, which was comparable to the values at JAN and SHV. That`s just above the 25th percentile climatologically locally. It was also noticeable in the afternoon dew points north of Interstate 10, where dew points dropped into the 60s, even as low as 62 at McComb. The northwesterly upper flow will continue across the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the daytime hours Tuesday, and likely well beyond that point. The only real issue is timing of shortwaves moving through that upper flow, and whether there will be sufficient moisture and forcing to produce any more than isolated convection. Probably looking at no more than isolated coverage at any one time Monday during the day over lower portions of the Louisiana coastal parishes. For the 12 hours as a whole, we might justify 30 percent or so at Houma, but that might be overstating things. Forcing may be a little better on Tuesday across even northern portions of the area, but anything much more than 30 percent PoPs doesn`t look justified for most of the area, as precipitable water values remain around 1.5 inches. While high temperatures look to remain around 90 degrees both days, humidity levels are expected to be lower than what we would normally associate with Labor Day weekend. Maximum apparent temperatures in the lower and middle 90s will seem fairly comfortable. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s are on tap for most of the area, with the possible exception of a few areas immediately downwind of Lake Pontchartrain that are likely to remain in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Troughing is expected to continue across the much of the eastern half of the country over the next week as ridging near Bermuda is blocking it from going much of anywhere. As shortwaves rotate through the mean trough axis over the Great Lakes, it may reorient the trough a bit from time to time, but the mid level flow over our area will remain northwesterly. With no prolonged periods of onshore low level flow, moisture levels are expected to remain near or below (mainly below) climatological norms for the first week of September, for the most part around 1.5 inches. Anything more than isolated convection for the second half of the week into next weekend will be a bit surprising. With the lowered moisture levels, that should allow temperatures to warm fairly efficiently, especially when surface winds are northerly. This should produce high temperatures in the lower 90s, and wouldn`t be surprised to see one or two spots in the mid 90s. Even so, with dew points in the 60s, or perhaps lower 70s, this wouldn`t produce oppressive heat index readings. Overnight lows could be near to slightly below normal next weekend. Some indications of even drier air feeding into the area by next Sunday and Monday (9/7-8) by both the operational GFS and ECMWF. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR conditions in place. That`s likely to continue through the overnight hours, and probably the daytime hours on Monday as well. While there will likely be some cumulus development on Monday, temperature/dew point spreads indicate that cloud bases should be above FL030 for much or all of the daytime hours. If any thunderstorms develop at all near the terminals, it would be at KHUM, and even there, areal coverage looks to be isolated, with probabilities too low to justify mentioning in the forecast that far out. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Daily thunderstorms remain the main issue over the open coastal waters as a stalled front lingers just south of the local waters. Expect brief bursts of stronger winds and higher waves in and near storms. The boundary pushes farther into the Gulf today, with offshore flow holding through at least midweek. With northeasterly winds around 15 knots expected across portions of the eastern coastal waters anticipated during the daytime hours today, will raise Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for those waters, similar to yesterday, ending at 00z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 68 88 67 / 10 10 30 10 BTR 91 71 90 69 / 10 10 30 10 ASD 89 69 88 68 / 10 10 30 10 MSY 90 76 90 75 / 20 10 40 10 GPT 88 70 88 70 / 10 10 20 10 PQL 89 67 88 67 / 10 10 20 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1243497 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1252 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New Marine UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 302 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 - Persistent troughing over the eastern U.S. will periodically enhance shower and lightning storm coverage through mid-week. - A low risk of excessive rainfall exists each day, particularly in areas that see repeated rounds of showers and storms. - Developing onshore flow will lead to a HIGH risk for life- threatening rip currents at the Volusia coast beaches. A Moderate risk for rip currents exists at the area beaches of Brevard County and the Treasure Coast. Surf conditions are expected to deteriorate further on Labor Day, especially from Cape Canaveral northward. - Marine conditions will deteriorate over the local Volusia coastal waters as low pressure creates a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increase to near 20 knots with higher gusts. Seas will also build 5 to 7 feet across the Volusia waters. && .UPDATE... Issued at 857 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Recent CAM guidance (HRRR/NAM/ARW) suggests a band of heavy rainfall developing along the northern flank of the center of the weak low pressure currently over the Atlantic. KMLB WSR-88D scans place this feature over the local Atlantic waters north of Cape Canaveral. Based on the current trajectory, it appears reasonable that this low will move onshore into the local area overnight. What remains in question is whether the band of showers and storms will be as robust as the HRRR suggests, as that would lead to a locally heavy rainfall threat for coastal areas (and possibly as far inland as Sanford/Deltona) north of the Cape, and where it sets up overnight. While the low-level flow is forecast to be onshore (NE/NNE), it is light compared to the W mean flow. This leads to a Corfidi vector from the W of at least 20 kts. Thus, the inland propagation of heavy rainfall may be limited, though the coast will likely remain at risk. Also, while there has been reasonable run to run consistency in the HRRR over the last couple of runs, this feature was not present in earlier forecasts this afternoon. However, bands of showers have already begun to develop over the Atlantic waters over the last hour or so. It`s unclear whether this is the consolidated band beginning to develop. All of this to say, low confidence in the forecast overnight. Although, there does appear to be a risk of locally heavy rainfall along the coast north of the Cape, possibly extending as far inland as near Deltona. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall for much of the forecast area overnight. Rainfall accumulations of 1-3", with locally higher amounts, are possible. && .MARINE... .Update...Issued a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the Volusia waters 0-60nm. Low pressure was developing along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary along the north Brevard/Volusia coasts. This was creating a tight pressure gradient with northeast winds increase to near 20 kts with occasional gusts to Gale Force. Seas were also building 5 to 7 feet here as well. The SCA will continue through 10 pm Monday evening. Will address any Cautionary Statement possibilities for the Brevard waters for Monday with the overnight forecast package. && Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Tonight...Poor boating conditions north of Port Canaveral tonight, due to winds 15-20 kts and seas up to 6 ft well offshore, as a low pressure system meanders near the local waters. Small craft should exercise caution there. South of the Cape, winds are forecast to remain near 10-15 kts, with seas 2-5ft. High coverage of showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours across the local waters. Monday-Thursday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Unsettled conditions continue as deep moisture and a stationary boundary remain parked over the local waters - leading to above normal chances of showers and thunderstorms. Deteriorating marine conditions are forecast given strengthening northeast winds, up to 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral. Seas building to 3 - 5 feet (up to 6 feet offshore Volusia)on Monday. Conditions will start to slowly improve into mid week as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and our local gradient weakens. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 75 86 75 / 70 40 60 30 MCO 87 75 88 74 / 70 20 70 30 MLB 87 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 40 VRB 89 75 89 74 / 70 40 70 50 LEE 86 74 88 74 / 30 20 60 30 SFB 86 75 88 75 / 70 30 60 30 ORL 86 75 88 75 / 70 20 70 30 FPR 89 73 90 72 / 70 40 70 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ550-570. && $$ |
| #1243496 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 01.Sep.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1245 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 The main focus of the update was to raise winds across the northeast Gulf waters late this evening and overnight. Several pieces of CAMS guidance point to 20-25 knot winds, and the 12z NAM-based marine MOS guidance forecasts 10-meter winds of as much as 26 knots at C Tower late this evening. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was expanded to cover all marine zones except Saint Andrews Bay. Here on a summer holiday weekend, inexperienced mariners will want to stay in port until conditions start to settle down some around midday on Monday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Little change is expected through Monday. In the grand scheme of our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start September. A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funneling down the Carolina and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10 will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches, which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Mid-level troughing is forecast to remain in place over the eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week before gradually beginning to lift northward. Generally dry offshore flow is expected to continue for the most part this week, keeping the forecast relatively warm and dry. A few showers and storms will be possible each afternoon, but offshore flow should keep them confined pretty close to the coast. A dry reinforcing front could push through the area mid to late week, but not much meaningful change is expected to be felt from it. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s warming to the low/mid 90s by mid to late week. Low temperatures similarly start out in the mid 60s to near 70 before gently warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025 VFR through the period. Steady northeast winds overnight from high pressure to the north will persist with some gustiness (15-20 knots) from late morning through the afternoon today. High clouds will continue to stream through the aerodromes from a disturbance in the southern Plains with a little less afternoon stratocu owing to drier low/mid level northeast flow. && .MARINE... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 A surge of strong northeast breezes will quickly develop near the coast around sunset this evening, then spread offshore across the northeast Gulf during the first few hours after dark. Seas will build to 5 feet over the more distant waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all the open Gulf waters. Northeast to east breezes will continue through Wednesday, as high pressure passes by to the north and a stationary front meanders over the Gulf generally extending west from Tampa Bay. Gradients will weaken later Wednesday through Friday as that frontal boundary exits off to the east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 As we head into the start of the week, drier air moves in. However, RH values are expected to remain well above critical with MinRH around 40 to 50 percent. Northeast flow will prevail through the week with speeds around 10-15 mph for the Transport winds on Monday, then decreasing to 5-10 mph for the rest of the week. Dispersions for Monday will be high for many districts in the FL Panhandle, Big Bend, and AL Wiregrass regions. Fair to moderate afternoon dispersions can be expected afterwards into midweek. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025 Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 88 68 89 / 0 10 10 30 Panama City 69 89 71 89 / 10 20 10 30 Dothan 62 87 64 89 / 0 10 0 10 Albany 63 87 64 90 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 64 88 66 90 / 0 10 10 20 Cross City 69 90 69 91 / 0 30 20 40 Apalachicola 71 85 73 85 / 20 30 20 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755- 765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-752-770- 772. && $$ |
