|
Show Area Forecast Discussion Selection: |
| #1238264 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 219 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A series of very weak troughs and fronts will impact Eastern NC this week with Bermuda high pressure anchored offshore. The high builds into Eastern NC late week through the weekend with dangerous heat and humidity. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 215 AM Wed... Key Messages... - Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms Latest analysis shows high pressure offshore with weak troughing inland. Showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning to blossom over the Gulf Stream early this morning. Expect sct coastal convection to transition inland by late morning and this afternoon as seabreeze develops. Will continue chance pops. Meager shear will keep tstms pulse like with low svr threat. Hot and muggy again with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and heat indices in the lower 100s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 215 AM Wed...Expect convection to wane with loss of heating this evening, becoming mostly dry with sct showers and storms offshore. Temps near climo with lows falling into the mid to upper 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM Wednesday... Key Messages... -Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected through the long term -Potential for hazardous heat from Thursday through Monday Jet stream and a stream of shortwaves are pinned well to our north with ridging dominating the synoptic flow over the SE through the long term. This brings a typical summertime pattern to the CWA through the long term, with daily pulse t-storms fueled by high instability, low shear, and high PWATs with slow storm motions bringing frequent lightning, brief periods of heavy rain, and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts. Thursday and Friday drier mid and upper levels keep rain chances a bit below climo, but then an increase in moisture for the weekend into early next week brings rain chances to at or above climo. With ridging built over the region, Thursday through Saturday high temps in the mid 90s paired with Tds in the mid to upper 70s brings apparent temperatures between 100-110F. Heat will be a concern Thursday through Monday, and proper precautions should be taken by those who either work outdoors or are planning on spending an extended amount of time outside later this week and weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period, with potential for patchy MVFR stratus early this morning and sct convection this afternoon. Sct to bkn mid/high clouds and SSW breeze should limit fog threat this morning, though terminals could see a brief period of MVFR stratus through mid morning. Scattered showers and tstms expected to develop again this afternoon, which could briefly bring sub-VFR conditions to the terminals. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...There will be a chance for some diurnal showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Though the lowest chances to see showers or thunderstorms will be on Thursday and Friday as a relatively drier airmass overspreads ENC. Either way, a low end threat at sub-VFR conditions each afternoon and early evening is expected across ENC into this weekend. If it does rain, then there will also be a fog and low stratus threat at night as well for areas that see meaningful rainfall. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 215 AM Wed...Latest obs show SW winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft. Typical summertime pattern will continue through tonight, with SSW winds increasing to 10-20 kt this afternoon and early evening as thermal gradient strengthens. Could see a few gusts approach 25 kt by late afternoon/early evening over the eastern Pamlico Sound, Roanoke/Croatan Sounds but still looks too marginal for SCA. Seas will build to 2-4 ft this evening. Scattered showers and a few storms will likely impact the coastal waters and sounds through mid morning, transitioning inland this afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 130 AM Wed...Conditions continue deteriorating Thurs as the thermal trough strengthens further. Winds increase to 15-25 kts with higher gusts across all waters. This will bring a threat for SCA conditions, mainly across the Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke Sounds and the central coastal waters which will have the most favorable orientation for SCA`s given the wind direction. As we get into the weekend winds do ease slightly as ridging to our east weakens, allowing SW`rly winds to fall from 15- 20 kts on Fri to 10-15 kts on Sat and Sun. 2-3 ft seas on Wed along our coastal waters increase to 3-5 ft Thurs night in response to the stronger winds with seas then lowering down to 2-4 ft on Fri and 2-3 ft for the weekend as winds ease. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the period with the lowest chances to see thunderstorms on Thurs/Fri. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238263 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure along with an inland trough will dominate with mainly localized showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Should see increasing heat risk late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Typical summer day with afternoon showers/storms. There is still some question on coverage as formation will be more with smaller scale features, but thoughts are that things will start to form along the sea breeze and then graduate more towards along outflow boundaries. No severe weather is anticipated but rain may be heavy at times. Activity will calm down into tonight where confidence on fog is low given a persistent southerly breeze. Highs near 90 and lows in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... At the sfc, a southerly return flow around the Bermuda High will continue. Ridge will continue to build in the mid levels with H5 heights increasing to 596 dam and deep westerly downslope flow in the low to mid levels by Fri. High temps in the in the 90 to 95 range on Thurs will increase further to 94 to 98 range on Fri. This will lead to increasing heat risk and potential for a Heat Advisory. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will not provide much relief at night. May see a front/trough run by to the north Fri night, but ridge should keep convection limited for the most part. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Hot and humid weather will continue into the weekend with temps well into the 90s. Expect potential for heat headlines to continue. By Sunday, the ridge gets suppressed a bit to the south with shortwave riding by to the north. May see lingering trough/front helping to increase chc of convection over the Carolinas into early next week with heat letting up a bit and diminishing chc of heat risk or headlines. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR/IFR stratus possible tonight as lower clouds move onshore to inland through the morning. The coverage will be the main question, so have left things SCT but momentary filling in of CIGs may be possible here and there. Otherwise, afternoon showers and storms will bring spotty restrictions to terminals with clearing expected tonight. Low confidence on fog and stratus towards the end of the period, but stratus may again be possible. Extended Outlook...Intermittent flight restrictions are possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and potential early morning fog/stratus. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Southerly winds generally 10-15 kts, highest in the afternoon. Seas generally 3-4 ft with a SSE swell at 2-4 ft and 6 seconds. Thursday through Sunday...Bermuda High will maintain SW winds up to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, especially in aftn sea breeze near shore. Seas will mainly be in the 3 to 4 ft range. A longer period SE swell will mix in. A front/trough will drop southward Fri night into the weekend with winds turning slightly more WSW. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238262 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 121 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing one. Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow from the invest begins. The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up. Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the middle part of the week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop this afternoon across the area, especially over coastal counties. Expect brief reductions in visibilities and ceilings in some of the heavier activity. Storms should taper off by the evening, however, ceilings may lower to MVFR tonight. Light and variable winds are expected this morning. Winds by the afternoon increase to around 5 to 10 knots and turn northeasterly to easterly across much of the area, although locations along the immediate coast could become southeasterly. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please continue to follow the National Hurricane Center`s information on any possible tropical development. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 95 74 88 76 89 76 91 75 / 80 60 90 50 90 20 80 10 Pensacola 92 77 88 79 90 79 91 79 / 80 60 90 50 80 20 60 10 Destin 91 80 90 81 91 81 92 81 / 90 60 90 50 80 10 50 10 Evergreen 95 73 91 74 92 74 93 74 / 60 30 80 20 80 10 60 10 Waynesboro 98 74 90 74 90 72 93 72 / 30 30 80 10 80 10 60 10 Camden 94 74 90 74 90 74 92 74 / 40 20 70 10 80 10 60 10 Crestview 92 74 90 74 91 74 93 74 / 90 40 90 30 80 10 70 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238261 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:21 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 215 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Heat and humidity peak today but lasts into Thursday. A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday before relief from the heat arrives this weekend. Drier and more seasonable weather is ahead next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Peak of heat and humidity today. Upper ridge builds into southern New England today which brings rising heights and warming temperatures aloft, making this the hottest day of the week. Heat indices this afternoon are expected to top out around 100 degrees in many areas away from immediate coast where onshore winds will keep it slightly cooler (but still hot). Along E MA coast, gradient remains weak enough to support sea breezes for a few hours from later this morning into early afternoon, then we should see winds shift back to S/SW which will boost temperatures there into 90s. Speaking of S/SW flow, we remain in the usual summertime pattern of nighttime and early morning low clouds/fog near South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands which should persist today and through the end of the week. Despite a lot of instability, ridge will also help suppress convective development as forecast soundings show a strong cap, but it`s possible we see a stray shower or even a thunderstorm form toward sunset as boundary layer cools off just a little, similar to what we saw yesterday across interior. However, we don`t have a lifting mechanism strong enough to overcome mid level cap so it will be difficult to see anything organized or potentially severe. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... 215 AM Update Key Messages: * Showers/non-severe storms possible overnight into Thu AM. * Severe storms possible late Thu afternoon/evening. * One more day of dangerous heat and humidity Thu. Lead short wave over Ohio Valley heads east tonight as upper ridge becomes suppressed and retreats offshore. It will provide larger scale lift upon an airmass that is already unstable with increasing PWATs, which should result in showers and perhaps embedded thunderstorms overnight into Thu morning, especially across western/central MA and CT. High-res models show a few potential outcomes, either an area of weakening convection heading into southern New England overnight, or what`s been called the "7-10 split" where convection splits into two areas where one lifts to our north and the other shifts south, leaving much of the area dry in between. In either case, none of the convective parameters are favorable for severe weather, but certainly the anomalous moisture could bring brief downpours. Once short wave heads offshore later in the morning, subsidence in its wake should prevent any additional activity from developing until the approach of the cold front later in the afternoon and evening. This is the main time frame of concern for severe weather, especially in western/central MA and northern CT, as environment should feature plenty of instability with surface-based CAPE over 2000 J/kg, sufficient 0-6km shear of 25-30kt, decent mid level lapse rates, and strong 0-1 km shear in excess of 150 m2s2. Most of the high-res models show potential for discrete storms ahead of front with potential for wind damage and even a few tornadoes, before eventually merging into small lines or segments capable of producing wind damage. That said, there are timing differences among hi-res models and ensemble members with some showing an earlier start to afternoon development. Should that verify, that would lessen the potential for severe weather since most of the parameters noted above occur later in day, closer to cold front itself, and are less favorable during the early to mid afternoon hours. Something to keep in mind which hopefully gets resolved in later runs. Aside from the convection, we will have one more day of dangerous heat and humidity, although extent of cloud cover could limit afternoon heating. For now, we are expecting heat indices well into 90s once again, but probably not as high as what we expect today. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Updated 215 AM Key Messages: * Still hot but lower humidity Fri. * Relief from heat arrives this weekend Once cold front moves offshore Fri, W/NW flow will bring drier air into region but airmass really doesn`t cool off sufficiently until this weekend, when we should see temperatures more typical of mid July which will last into early next week. Overall, dry weather is expected but the front may return north by Sunday which would bring scattered showers/storms, before another short wave kicks everything out to sea Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Low clouds and fog will bring IFR/LIFR conditions to much of South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands through sunrise, possibly advancing into NE CT and most of RI/SE MA. These lower ceilings will retreat southward after sunrise leaving VFR conditions by early afternoon, but will then return around sunset and persist tonight once again with widespread IFR/LIFR into Thu morning. Otherwise, VFR with S/SW winds through tonight. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes along E MA coast for a time later this morning into early afternoon, before S winds return. Later tonight, areas of MVFR ceilings develop with showers possible in western New England overnight, perhaps spreading into more of southern New England Thu morning. Conditions then improve again to VFR but we may see a round of showers/storms later in day, especially in western MA/western CT. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA for next several days, though outer waters E and S of Cape Cod/Islands may come close ahead of cold front Thu night. Main concern through end of week is areas of fog during nighttime and morning hours, in addition to scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thu morning and possibly again Thu night. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238260 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 109 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Yesterday was quite warm with very little convection. That said there were still a few storms out there but overall most of the region remained rain free and about half of the area likely remains rain free again today. This will lead to another warm one but the eastern half of the area may see some cooling rain in the afternoon and maybe as early as midday. Today will begin very warm and humid. The ridge that is helping to steer the flow and our Gulf disturbance remains entrenched across the southeastern CONUS and Lower MS Valley nosing down into southeastern TX. This is leading to very warm LL temps across the Lower MS Valley which is sinking down into southern MS and SELA but h925 temps are only around 26/27C. Under optimal conditions this would lead to mid to even upper 90s easily but this ridge again isn`t that August early September type ridge So getting much above 96 is going to be very difficult combine the fact that storms could be moving in from the east and looking at radar last night and satellite there was a large area of precip that has been displaced well west of our Gulf disturbance. This surge of moisture is already moving into the area and there is a good chance that we could see convection begin to develop along coastal MS and coastal SELA late morning/midday. In addition high clouds are already quickly spreading west and could also impact temps today and that could help keep the heat index in check some. The other issue that has been occurring for the last week or so is the mixing. We have really been able to mix these dewpoints down efficiently north of I-12 and north of I-10 in coastal MS the for some reason and that has helped keep the heat index under control in and around places like BTR and MCB. With all of that there are some question with the heat today however around the lakes and on the immediate MS coast where the moisture is higher it has been more oppressive and the only thing that will help to keep it in check will be convection...which is a concern today. That said the heat advisory that is currently out...will not make changes to it yet as see if convection does fire early today. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The extended portion of the forecast is highly focused on the system over the northeastern Gulf. Models have begun to come more in line with this system really hugging the northern Gulf but remaining on the weak side from an organization standpoint. Overall no major changes made to the forecast with the risk of very heavy rain still possible across the region mainly Thursday through Friday night but rain could linger around the area into the weekend. So first...there is still some potential for heavy rain with flash flooding possible however the confidence is not the highest given the latest trends. That said it will not take much to get some rather high rain totals over portions of the CWA given the amount of moisture over the area and favorable upper lvl environment in place. The tropical wave we are watching is still sitting at 40% of developing into the tropical depression in the next 48 hours but it is not looking very organized at this time. It moved inland yesterday over the FL peninsula but almost as soon as it moved inland it became detached with the sfc low quickly surging north while the mid lvl low continued west. By 5z the LL center was east of TLH and approaching southern GA while the mid lvl center was south of Apalachicola. So the question is can a sfc low redevelop underneath the convection and then will it just continue to barrel west towards the LA coast or will it struggle to see much if any consolidation with a very messy and disorganized system approaching the coast Thursday. At this time it is beginning to feel like we may want some consolidation as this would likely focus the heavier rain and along and south of the eventual track which would likely be the immediate SELa coast and the coastal water. However, if this is messy disorganized system convection will be more diurnal in nature. Yes that will keep us from seeing widespread rain and a complete washout everywhere but will be more favorable to seeing scattered storms which will be extremely efficient rain producers. PWS are still expected to be well over 2" and models are now explicitly showing PWS near 2.5" at times Thursday and Friday. The upper lvl setup is still very favorable Thursday and into Thursday evening so the concern may be trending to scatted storms tapping into that rather extreme moisture with a nice diffluent setup aloft and weak steering currents. The problem then becomes storms easily capable of dropping multiple inches of rain in under an hour but that alone isn`t necessarily a problem, the problem is just where that would occur. There are many locations that will have no problem handling even more than 2-3" of rain in an hour but if that falls over the wrong locations say like any of our more urban areas that will lead to big problems. Now the obligatory and we hate to say but "there is still a lot of uncertainty". Most of the time there really is and in this case there are but trends in radar and satellite along with guidance are suggesting that there is a good chance that the bulk of the heavy rain will remain along and south of the coast. Small adjustments/changes can have rather significant implications in impacts and with our system there are a few things that could lead to most of the area seeing relatively light impacts. The biggest determining factor in this case is track and there are more than a few solutions suggesting that it will struggle to really develop and remain just a little too far south with most of the rain hanging south especially since there is a good chance that a bulk of the rain will remain on the southern side of this system. At this time we will continue to advertise widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amount of 6 to 8 possible. However if trends continue these values may trend down some more or at the least the area may be a little more confined to coastal LA. The one caveat is if this just remains a disorganized mess where convection become highly diurnal in nature and that would then lead to scattered storms across the entire CWA leading to isolated pockets of very heavy rain. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will persist through the night and first half of the day tomorrow however by afternoon we will likely begin to see convection develop or move in from the east. Locations with the greatest risk of seeing convection tomorrow afternoon are along coastal MS and south of Lake Pontchartrain. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 105 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Benign conditions will continue today but convection is already quickly moving in from the east. We will begin to see impacts increase later today and through the rest of the week as a disturbance from the northeaster Gulf moves into the area tomorrow. Winds and seas will increase over local waters, Thursday through the weekend. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 96 74 90 73 / 30 40 90 30 BTR 96 77 90 75 / 30 40 90 50 ASD 95 74 87 74 / 40 70 90 60 MSY 95 79 88 78 / 40 70 100 60 GPT 95 75 88 77 / 70 60 90 70 PQL 95 74 88 76 / 80 60 90 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Friday night for MSZ077-083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238258 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 207 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today: Aloft, the east to west oriented ridge axis will continue to extend into the GA/SC coast. At the surface, The subtropical high will be the primary feature and will drive the low-level flow pattern across the forecast area. Overall, today does not look particularly active for convection. The ridge aloft will help to keep coverage down, and model soundings are rather warm and only depict MLCAPE values of up to around 1,500 J/kg. Instead, we will likely continue to see weak convection push onshore from the coastal waters within the onshore flow throughout much of the day. Any diurnal land-based convection that develops also looks to be weak and not a severe threat. Also, the locally heavy rain threat is low thanks to the progressive nature of this convection with storm motion on the order of 15-20 mph. Temperatures are forecast to top out in the low 90s, with heat indices mostly in the low 100`s and some isolated values into the mid 100`s. Tonight: Overall, little change to the pattern overnight. Any lingering land-based convection should dissipate through the early evening, though there will still likely be some shower activity over the coastal waters trying to push onshore at times. The low-level flow will start to become more south- southwest or southwest with time which should keep most of the nocturnal convection across the coastal waters off the coast. Similar lows to the last few nights, with temperatures falling into the low to mid 70s inland and hanging around in the upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A strong deep layered ridge will prevail Thursday through Saturday, bringing hot and humid conditions. Friday and Saturday will feature highs in the mid/upper 90s, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s, and heat indices topping 108 in some places. We could need Heat Advisories for part of the area both days. An increase in upper level subsidence will limit PoPs to 20-30%. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The upper ridge axis will shift west of the area late in the weekend into early next week, allowing some shortwave energy to rotate in from the north. This could result in an increase in diurnal convection coverage Monday and Tuesday. Toasty conditions will continue into Monday, with possible Heat Advisories both days. Temps may cool slightly by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The 06z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main issue for through sunrise will be shower activity moving onshore and possibly producing brief periods of MVFR conditions. Over the next few hours, the best chances are expected to be around KSAV. Then around sunrise and through mid morning, the focus for shower activity should shift up more into the KJZI and KCHS area. By the early afternoon, most of the shower activity should shift inland of the terminals. Winds will be a bit stronger today with some gusts into the 16-20 knot range expected. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Today and tonight: Subtropical high pressure to the east will be the primary feature driving the flow across the local waters through the period. Winds today will be southerly with speeds mostly in the 10-15 knot range, though there could be an occasional 20 knot gust. Overnight, winds will slightly start to veer around to become more south-southwest late. Speeds should be the same, mostly 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Seas should average 3-4 feet through the period. We will likely continue to see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters today within the onshore flow. This activity isn`t expected to be particularly strong and there is a low probability of strong wind gusts. High pressure will prevail Thursday through Monday, maintaining typical summertime weather in the marine area. No headlines expected. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238259 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 201 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern continues through Wednesday with scattered thunderstorms and localized flooding possible. Hot and humid conditions, with a somewhat lower storm coverage is expected Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Flood Watch has been cancelled all areas with no additional heavy rainfall and flash flood potential expected overnight. - Areal Flood Warnings have been extended into early Wed morning for portions of southside VA where widespread road closures remain in place due to lingering areas of high water. The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge centered across the western Atlantic, ridging into the SE CONUS, with an upper level trough across the northern Plains and central/ern Canada. At the sfc, a weak pressure pattern is in place, with a quasi-stationary boundary now mainly N of the local area. Earlier showers and storms have diminished, with just a few spotty showers with embedded tstms over the MD eastern shore (mainly along the coast). Additional heavy rain and flash flooding is not anticipated, allowing the cancellation of the Flood Watch. Given a fairly widespread region of lingering high water and road closures, decided to extend the Areal Flood Watch across southside VA into early Wed morning. Otherwise, mainly dry overnight, with perhaps a few additional showers manly along the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will probably develop overnight, but widespread dense fog is unlikely. LOws will mainly range in the lower to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the area. A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow. No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories possible. Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion of our area reach the 105F+ criteria. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday... High pressure is centered off the Southeast coast as of 06z. Primarily VFR, with the exception of developing IFR stratus at and around RIC. The wind is very light out of the SSW. IFR/LIFR stratus is expected to persist at RIC through 10-12z (along with some MVFR vsby). Otherwise, MVFR cigs are possible at PHF and SBY after 09-10z. Any lingering MVFR cigs after 12z are expected to lift by 14z. Scattered showers/tstms are expected once again Wednesday aftn, but with less coverage than previous days. Continued PROB30 groups for tstms (19-23z) for all sites but ECG. The wind is expected to be SW 8-12kt with a few gusts to 20kt Wednesday aftn. Any showers/tstms diminish Wednesday evening, with mainly VFR conditions Wednesday night. Mainly VFR Thursday through Sunday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is forecast Thursday, with a higher chc Friday/Saturday as another front drops into the region. && .MARINE... As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday night, outside of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms. - Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday night into Thursday, mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River. Strong high pressure well offshore continues to keep the prevailing southerly flow across the local waters. Winds are mostly S-SE 5-10 kt with gusts from convection up to 15 kt. The pressure gradient sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected through Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, SCA conditions are likely, as local probabilities now show 80-99% for 18 kt sustained winds over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Although, confidence for headlines over the coastal waters is lower, as the probability for sustained 25 kt is only up to 10%. Winds may remain elevated through the day Thursday and begin to decrease Thursday night. Since the timeframe is still a few periods out, opting to hold off on headlines for now. Waves and seas remain benign around 1 ft and 2 ft, respectively. Although likely staying benign through the forecast period, waves and seas will increase slightly Wednesday night to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively, before decreasing again Thursday night. There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches tomorrow as seas will build throughout the day and the swell will become more shore normal. A low risk remains for the southern beaches. Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy rain. && .HYDROLOGY... A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above Farmville through early Wed afternoon. Minor flooding is forecast and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1238256 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast. Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler today with the cloud cover and early start to convection. For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow. Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms. Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700 mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon. Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and high temps back into the mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An unsettled pattern looks to continue later this morning and through the afternoon as a tropical disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. MVFR ceilings are currently forecast for VLD and ABY for portions of early-late morning as some lower clouds push through. VFR conditions should otherwise prevail, with any terminal restrictions manifesting as brief MVFR or IFR conditions in rounds of heavy showers/thunderstorms. Both spatial and temporal coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be greater than a typical summertime pattern, with current guidance suggesting activity picking up as early as 12z for our southern terminals. As the disturbance pushes westward and southerly flow establishes early afternoon, scattered to widespread TSRA should develop with a general south to north progression. The timing of the rounds of convection is attempted for each terminal site in the TAFs, although there is considerable uncertainty with timing out finer mesoscale features and thus further tweaks may be necessary. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 An area of low pressure will track westward today through the Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to 10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum for the next several days. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the next several days. The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3 inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower moving storms. As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture increases again at the beginning of the next work week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 88 75 91 76 / 80 20 90 10 Panama City 88 78 89 79 / 90 50 90 40 Dothan 89 75 92 74 / 80 10 80 10 Albany 91 74 94 74 / 60 10 60 0 Valdosta 93 74 95 76 / 70 10 60 10 Cross City 91 73 93 74 / 80 40 80 20 Apalachicola 86 79 87 80 / 90 60 90 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238255 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 156 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Held VCTS mention for TPA/PIE to open period as overnight lingering convection slides north along the coast, with TEMPO restrictions before VFR expected to return. Otherwise, S/SE flow regime over the area today will favor VFR through the morning, however, a few showers possible prior to main afternoon convection as moisture surges northward across the area, but excluding mention for now due to lower confidence. VC mention beginning early afternoon with highest MVFR/LCL IFR potential mid afternoon through early evening with showers/storms directly affecting terminals before diminishing later in evening. Winds S/SE 5-10 knots overnight into morning before increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts mainly in afternoon, diminishing in the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 92 79 / 80 30 80 30 FMY 91 76 93 76 / 70 30 80 20 GIF 92 76 93 76 / 70 20 80 10 SRQ 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 30 BKV 91 72 93 73 / 80 30 80 20 SPG 88 78 90 79 / 80 30 80 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 7 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1238253 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend. * Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to moderate seas through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the Southern U.S. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday (highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island. The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned 594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common along and west of IH-69C. As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions could continue through late July/early August, given the time of year we`re in and model trends. Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk through the period. Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north- central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mostly clear skies and generally light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238254 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1241 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, TROPICAL... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Dry, but hot today as weak high pressure builds over the region. - Increasing tropical moisture will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. - NHC continues to monitor a disturbance that will be entering the northern Gulf on Wednesday, giving it a 40% chance of development into a tropical system in the next couple of days. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are likely late Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A slight increase in mid-level ridging and drier air moving into the region will result in the low rain chances on Wednesday through early Thursday - practically the lowest rain chances we`ve had in over a week. There still might be an isolated, short-lived shower that develops thanks to daytime heating on Wednesday afternoon, but overall we will be rain free through early Thursday. However, the increasing heights aloft and reduced moisture will lead to afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 90s in spots along the I-10 corridor. Rain chances do begin to increase from the east late Thursday with chances increasing as we head into Friday. This increase in moisture will be associated with the disturbance currently located in northern Florida that the NHC is monitoring for development into a tropical system as it tracks through the northern Gulf over the next few days. NHC gives it a 40% chance of development into a tropical depression or named storm within the next 2 days - more on that in the tropical section below. Regardless of development, this disturbance will be bringing a surge in PWATs (up to 2-2.4"), so we can expect increased rain chances with locally heavy rainfall possible Friday through early Saturday. WPC has placed the I-45 corridor in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday with eastern Polk, eastern Liberty, and most of Chambers county in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). WPC continues the risk of Excessive Rainfall into Saturday, but shifts the threats further east with areas east of I-45 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) and the Slight Risk out of our region and more towards the TX/LA border. Looking past this potential tropical system, expect warming conditions Sunday into the start of the work week with temperatures rising back into the mid 90s (and possibly into the upper 90s). With some drier air in place, rain chances will remain on the lower-side with PoPs maxing out near 15-20% during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Isolated afternoon showers/storms will taper off this evening as light and variable winds settle in across the region. Patchy fog and CIGS may develop over portions of the region during the early morning hours of Wednesday. MVFR conditions may develop with IFR FLs possible in some spots, mostly north of Houston. Conditions improve after daybreak with VFR largely dominating across the area. Southwest winds strengthen during the daytime, shifting south/southeast during the afternoon, then becoming light again in the evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Light onshore winds around 5-10kt (and gusts to 15kt) and seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through the next few days. Drier air has moved in, so expect much lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms through early Thursday. From late Thursday into Friday, rain chances are expected to increase as a tropical disturbance approaches SE TX from the northern Gulf region. There still remains uncertainty regarding the development and track of this disturbance and more information will be known once the system moves into the Gulf waters on Wednesday. NHC maintains a 40% chance of formation through the next 48 hours as the system moves through the northern Gulf. Regardless of development, we can expect the increased rain chances late Thursday through Friday or early Saturday. Current wave modeling does not factor in any tropical development, so its possible that wave height forecast may increase for Friday *IF* the system does strengthen. Please continue to monitor the upcoming forecasts. Fowler && .TROPICAL... Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Not much change in this discussion that hasn`t been talked about in the previous discussions. NHC is monitoring a disturbance, currently located in northern Florida, for strengthening into a tropical system giving it a 40% chance of development within the next 2 days. Conditions are favorable for development, but there remains uncertainty in the forecast track of this system. This system will move westwards through the northern Gulf, but how far west it gets before turning northwards is uncertain (for now, most guidance has it turning northwards into Louisiana before reaching our region, if it develops at all, but this guidance may change once/if a center of circulation develops), and how far offshore the center of circulation develops (a track closer to the coast means less time over water and potentially drier air impacting development). Again, regardless of development into a tropical system, an increase of moisture will lead to increased chances of showers and thunderstorms in SE Texas late Thursday through Friday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 72 94 74 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 95 75 93 76 / 10 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 20 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238252 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 - Low (10-30%)chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly Victoria Crossroads. - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Summer time conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend and into next week with a majority of South Texas remaining rain free. There is an increase of showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads Friday, but chances remain low (10-30%). This is in response to a potential tropical system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring that has a medium 40% chance of developing across the northeast and northern Gulf over the next 48 hours. No significant impacts are expected in S TX at this time other than a slight increase in precipitation Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Max heat indices may briefly approach 110 over the weekend across the Brush Country due to a slight increase in moisture. The slightly higher heat indices will lead to a moderate to major risk of heat related impacts over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Expecting MVFR CIGs for ALI/LRD this morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. Southeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon with gusts up to around 25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mainly gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly winds with gusts to fresh (BF 5) levels will persist over the waters through much of the upcoming week. Rain chances are low through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 80 90 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 103 75 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 79 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238251 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 * Hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions are expected to persist through the middle parts of next week. * Minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk will persist through Friday, before Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk develops over the weekend. * Breezy southeasterly winds at times will result in low to moderate seas through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 The weather pattern through at least the middle parts of next week for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will feature continued hot, humid, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions. Global forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge or "heat dome" retrograding westward from Bermuda and building over the southeastern U.S. initially before eventually establishing itself more broadly over the Southern U.S. For Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, this means seasonable temperatures and mainly minor (Level 1 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through Friday (highs temps inland in the mid 90s east to lower 100s west with heat indices between 100-110F). High temps will hold in the 80s along the Lower Texas Coast beaches and South Padre Island. The heat intensifies slightly over the weekend as the aforementioned 594 dam sub-tropical heat dome builds overhead. This will result in mainly moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk developing over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the weekend and persisting through early next week. Temperature anomalies will run slightly hotter than normal with triple digit heating becoming more common along and west of IH-69C. As highlighted earlier, rain-free conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week as the aforementioned heat ridge stifles any prospects rain. It`s possible that this pattern of normal to hotter than normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions could continue through late July/early August, given the time of year we`re in and model trends. Winds will also be breezy at times through the forecast period as the sfc pressure gradient tightens or enhances at times. This could at times result in moderate seas and rip current risk through the period. Finally, we continue to monitor a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 2-7 days over the north- central Gulf. Impacts are not expected at this time across Deep South Texas, according to forecast trends. However, there could be some increase in swells over the Gulf Waters later this week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Mostly clear skies and generally light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance that has a medium (40%) chance for development across the north-central Gulf that may increase swell locally late this week. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are possible each afternoon across the bay with gusty afternoon winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 77 93 77 94 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 75 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 77 98 78 98 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 87 79 87 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1238248 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 - Daily rain chances remain high, up to around 70-80% through midweek as low pressure continues to pull deep moisture over the peninsula as it moves into the Gulf. - A more seasonal pattern returns late week, with rain chances returning closer to normal by Friday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Cancelled the Flood Watch early at around 5pm EDT this afternoon, as the heaviest rainfall associated with Invest 93L had moved out of the area. Showers and storms have continued this evening, though rainfall amounts have not been high enough to maintain the watch. The forecast for tonight is a bit uncertain, as CAMs have struggled immensely with convection today. However, still expect showers and storms to diminish this evening overall, though a chance (~ 20-30%) will continue for the Treasure Coast overnight. Should showers or storms train over the same areas, minor flooding could result. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Currently-Tonight...Low level circulation of Invest 93L is pushing onshore north of Volusia County and remains disorganized. N/NE shear has kept persistent bands of rain and isolated storms S/SW of the center across areas near to north of a line from Orlando to the Cape. Some localized heavy rainfall totals have occurred with the heavier showers and storms, including up to 5-7 inches in northern Brevard County near Mims and Turnbull where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier today. As low shifts westward across FL into tonight, this persistent rainfall will also gradually transition west into this evening. Additional, scattered showers and storms will be possible farther southeast of the I-4 corridor with daytime heating through late afternoon/early evening. A Flood Watch continues through 8 PM from Brevard/Osceola counties northward through Lake and Volusia for the continued potential for locally heavy to excessive rainfall totals up to 5-7 inches that may lead to isolated flash flooding. This activity will then diminish into this evening, with isolated onshore moving showers and possibly a storm or two along the coast from the Cape southward overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s. Wednesday-Thursday...As Invest 93L moves westward into the northeast Gulf, NHC is still giving the system a medium (40%) chance of tropical development into mid to late week as it moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf. Across east central FL, waves of deeper moisture (PW values up to 2-2.3") will lift northward across the area, keeping higher rain chances in the forecast (up to 70-80%). Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop each afternoon and evening, with greatest coverage focusing inland. A few stronger storms will be possible each day, with the main threats including frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts of 40-50 mph, and torrential downpours leading to minor flooding. Hot and humid conditions are forecast each day. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, with peak afternoon heat index values around 100-105F Wednesday and 102-107F Thursday. Friday-Monday...(Previous Discussion) Broad mid level ridging slides over Florida late week and through the weekend. At the surface, the western flank of the Atlantic high extends across central Florida and into the Gulf. A more summerlike pattern of scattered afternoon showers and storms returns, guided by the sea breeze circulation. High temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s each day, with peak heat index values forecast to range 100-106 degrees. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Tonight-Wednesday...An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) is pushing onshore across the northeast coast of FL and will continue westward through tonight before exiting into the NE Gulf Wednesday where it currently has a medium chance (40%) for tropical development into mid to late week. Poor boating conditions will continue into tonight, mainly over the offshore waters where S/SE winds will be up to 15-20 knots. Winds will then remain out of the S/SE around 10-15 knots into Wednesday. Seas will be around 2-3 feet for much of the period, except up to 4 feet offshore Volusia County into tonight. Lingering deep moisture across the area will continue development of at least scattered showers and storms over the waters, especially overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Thursday-Sunday...Subtropical ridge axis will dominate the weather pattern late week into this weekend. Winds will remain out of the southeast through late week and then S/SE into the weekend. Seas will continue to range around 2-3 feet for much of the period, with more normal shower and storm coverage forecast. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 VFR conditions continue outside of convection. Though Invest 93L continues to pull away (W/NW) from ECFL, abundant moisture will stream across the area in its wake. Light SE/S flow continues thru early morning, with southerly flow dominating during the day on Wed. Wind speeds increasing to 8-12 kts areawide, and a little gustier across coastal TAF sites. A gradual return on this day to the normal sea breeze regime, though highest PoPs look to favor the interior and esp WCFL into late afternoon/evening. PoP potential highest along the coast during the morning and early afternoon. Too early for TEMPO groups, but do have some VCSH/VCTS at various locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 76 90 76 / 60 10 60 10 MCO 92 75 92 76 / 70 20 80 10 MLB 89 78 90 77 / 50 20 60 10 VRB 90 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10 LEE 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 80 10 SFB 91 76 93 76 / 70 20 70 10 ORL 91 76 93 77 / 70 20 80 10 FPR 90 75 90 74 / 60 20 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1238247 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 108 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Building heat and humidity continues this week, peaking tomorrow, but possibly lasting into Thursday or Friday as high pressure remains offshore. A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday before relief from the heat arrives this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Key Messages: * Isolated (a couple?) showers or garden variety thundershowers along seabreezes thru sundown, but mainly dry weather for the vast majority of Southern New England. * Low clouds and fog return, similar to last few nights. Muggy lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Rather quiet weather continues into this evening. Mainly clear to start, but already spotted fog and stratus forming off the coast. Much like past night, this fog and stratus should reach at least the coastal plains of RI and southeast MA. A light southwest wind should limit the northward extend of this across eastern MA. Thinking the I-90 is the northernmost limit. Low clouds and fog could be farther north than that within the CT River valley. Minor tweaks to bring temperatures back in line with observed trends. Previous Discussion... Remains a very warm to hot day across Southern New England, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s leading to elevated heat indices. First-order stations (ASOS METAR reports) have reported heat indices in the mid 90s as of this writing, although the usual variation exists comparing these to mesonet sites. Although we are condtionally-unstable with sfc-based CAPEs in the 1500-2000 J/kg range, lack of forced synoptic ascent and weak capping have largely stunted any showers or thunderstorms from popping up. There has been some showers along the CT-RI south coastal seabreeze, and we could see a pop-up shower or thunderstorm develop into the Merrimack Valley too due to the seabreeze there and perhaps in/around the terrain. Other than these mesoscale- driven areas, the vast majority of Southern New England ends up being dry, so kept PoP at no worse than 20% along the interior and along the south coast. Any shower or thundershower activity which pops up will diminish after sundown. Aside from that though, the forecast for the evening should end up being pretty similar to the last few overnights. Once the sun goes down, stratus/mist re-develops and returns northward from the southern coastal waters. Warm and humid evening with lows upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... 230 PM Update: Key Messages: * Hot, humid and dry Wednesday, the peak of the spell of heat and humidity. High heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. * Increasing clouds, scattered passing showers with brief downpours moving in during the second half of the overnight. Hazardous weather isn`t expected. Very warm and muggy night with lows in the low to mid 70s! Details: Hot and humid weather continues into Wednesday as well, as a shortwave ridge briefly builds into Southern New England. In addition to even warmer temperatures aloft, subsidence aloft brought on by this shortwave ridge will serve to suppress any diurnal showers or thundershowers despite otherwise ample instability. Heat Advisory still remains valid, with air temps in the low to mid 90s contributing to heat indices around the upper 90s to lower 100s. Daytime seabreezes look to develop too, but these won`t do very much at all to cut into the heat and humidity. Shortwave ridge axis pulls offshore during the mid afternoon hours on Wed, and this will allow for a weak shortwave trough now over the OH Valley to slowly progress ENE through the northern mid-Atlc and Southern New England Wed evening. Increasing cloud cover from both the coastal waters and from interior western New England should keep temps warmer during the overnight with lows in the mid 70s! The shortwave trough will also bring with it a threat for showers or rumbles of thunder; with PWAT values on the rise to nearly 2" per SREF mean output, brief downpours can`t be ruled out but the coverage of showers may end up being more scattered and those that do develop should be moving along. Given those factors, we are not expected to see the really high rain rates/heavy rain footprints like we saw during the early morning hours late last week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * Heat and humidity persists into Thu or Fri with increasing chances of showers/storms. * Relief arrives this weekend. We remain in hot/humid airmass through end of this week, awaiting approach of mid level short wave and fairly strong cold front which will eventually bring relief from the heat and humidity this weekend. Not seeing large timing differences with this cold front passage, which should be sometime Thursday night into Friday morning. Larger timing differences are present with this front when it likely returns back as a warm front Sunday, then moves offshore again as a cold front Monday. Still thinking Thursday is the day with the greatest risk for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Given the heat and humidity expected to be in place, a few thunderstorms could produce strong winds. The greater concern remains the possibility for downpours and localized flooding. Friday and Saturday have trended more rain-free behind the aforementioned cold front. Then had to mention more showers Sunday into Monday, although confidence in the timing is rather modest. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence. Low clouds and fog will bring IFR/LIFR conditions to much of South Coast, Cape Cod, and Islands through sunrise, possibly advancing into NE CT and most of RI/SE MA. These lower ceilings will retreat southward after sunrise leaving VFR conditions by early afternoon, but will then return around sunset and persist tonight once again with widespread IFR/LIFR into Thu morning. Otherwise, VFR with S/SW winds through tonight. Gradient remains weak enough to allow for sea breezes along E MA coast for a time later this morning into early afternoon, before S winds return. Later tonight, areas of MVFR ceilings develop with showers possible in western New England overnight, perhaps spreading into more of southern New England Thu morning. Conditions then improve again to VFR but we may see a round of showers/storms later in day, especially in western MA/western CT. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. High confidence through end of the week. Sub-SCA winds and seas through Wednesday night with modest SW flow persisting. Patchy marine fog and stratus could hamper visibility for mariners tonight. Dry weather on Wednesday but we could see scattered showers develop on the waters overnight Wednesday evening/early Thursday morning along with returning marine fog. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ003>007-010>021- 026. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ008>011. RI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT Thursday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1238246 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 16.Jul.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1248 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak low pressure center will continue to move westward across the Florida Panhandle through tonight, which will continue a moist south to southeast flow across NE FL/SE GA. This will allow for the East Coast sea breeze to push inland to the US 301 corridor, then interact with the lingering tropical moisture in place across NE FL where PWATs will remain above 2 inches and expect numerous to widespread showers and storms again this afternoon/evening, with heavy rainfall the main threat, although a few isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph will still be possible, along with some weak rotation possible in some of the more intense storms since area will remain on the East side of the departing low pressure system. Slightly lesser convection expect along the NE FL coastal areas and across SE GA, where scattered showers and storms are expected. Max temps should rebound into the lower 90s over inland areas and upper 80s/near 90F along the Atlantic Coast, and dew points temps into the mid/upper 70s will still push Heat indices to 100-105F, but still below heat advisory criteria. Convection will linger over inland areas along the I-75 corridor through the evening hours with heavy rainfall threat until midnight, then just a few isolated showers possible during the overnight hours in the humid airmass. Low temps in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s/near 80F along the Atlantic Coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 High pressure will build to the east Thursday, with ridge extending across forecast area. The ridge will move toward the southeast Friday, as a trough develops over the southeastern US. A flow from the south/southwest will provide moisture for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 The region will be between high pressure to the southeast, and the trough across the southeastern US over the weekend into early next week. A moist flow from the southwest will keep chances for mainly diurnal precipitation in the forecast. An elongated area of low pressure may develop along the southeastern US Tuesday. The development of this low will increase precipitation chances. Temperatures will trend above normal this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 South to Southeast winds will continue at 5-10 knots this morning, and with the moist airmass will need to keep at least VCSH at the regional terminals with rainfall chances in the 10-20% range through the morning hours, along with TEMPO MVFR CIGS at times. Diurnal heating today will allow for scattered showers to develop for coastal terminals later this morning and will need to keep PROB30 groups at CRG/JAX for TSRA during the 16-20Z time frame, while much higher rainfall chances at VQQ/GNV as the East Coast sea breeze pushes slowly inland triggers numerous TSRA and expect to need TEMPO groups from the 18-22Z range at VQQ and 20-24Z range for GNV. Convection will fade at coastal TAF sites towards the end of the TAF period, but will continue to be possible at GNV until the 04-06Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 1246 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 A broad area of low pressure will continue to track westward across the Florida Panhandle today and tonight with south to southeast winds continuing at Caution levels. Atlantic high pressure will extend across the southeast states through Thursday. The high will shift south and extend across south Florida late Friday into the weekend as a surface front lingers across Georgia. Rip Currents: A solid Moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Thursday as gusty South to Southeast winds will keep surf/breakers in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 73 95 74 / 30 20 40 10 SSI 87 79 90 79 / 30 20 20 10 JAX 92 76 94 76 / 40 30 50 10 SGJ 90 76 91 76 / 50 20 60 10 GNV 92 73 94 74 / 70 50 70 10 OCF 91 73 92 75 / 80 60 80 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ |
