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| #1257232 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 552 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 535 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through mid-afternoon Thursday. A few gusts to gale force are possible. - A few locations well north of Interstate 12 could briefly fall below freezing around sunrise Thursday with a more widespread freeze likely Friday morning. - Some indications of potential for snowfall Saturday night across portions of the area. Not a high confidence forecast on specifics at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Deep longwave trough over much of the eastern half of the country this evening with multiple shortwaves moving through it. One will continue to move across the local area this evening. Upper ridging was centered near Lake Tahoe. At the surface, a cold front had moved offshore, with a reinforcing boundary approaching McComb and Baton Rouge at 10 PM CST. Temperatures ranged from mid 40s to lower 50s for most of the area. A few sprinkles of rain were noted on radar and surface observations, but areal coverage has been diminishing. Trough axis should be exiting the east portions of the CWA prior to sunrise, taking most or all of the cloud cover along with it. The next shortwave to move into the trough should be moving through the middle Mississippi River Valley by sunrise Saturday. This will force another cold front through the local area Friday night. Moisture will be very limited along this front, and at this point, wouldn`t expect much more than a few sprinkles of rain. High temperatures not much more than the lower or middle 50s Thursday afternoon, but sunshine ahead of the approaching front should allow temperatures to rebound to at least the middle 60s for highs on Friday. Lows Friday morning are expected to drop to near or below freezing across much of the northern half of the area, but clouds should hold them in the lower and middle 40s in most areas Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Main forecast question during the long term portion of the forecast will be the potential for precipitation Saturday night and the temperatures when that occurs. As noted above, there will be a cold front moving through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. All forecast indications at this point have the front offshore Saturday morning with high temperatures responding into the 50s during the daytime hours. A strong shortwave will move through the upper trough Saturday, crossing the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Valleys Saturday night, with the axis to the east of the area by sunrise Sunday. Looking at forecast soundings from earlier in the day, any moisture advection will be above the 850 mb level, with a northerly wind component below that level. The 12z and 18z GFS runs would be supportive of snow potential, mainly between 9 pm Saturday night and 3 am Sunday morning. However, the 12z ECMWF indicated any significant moisture will have departed before the sounding gets cold enough to support snow. Deterministic NBM probabilities for measurable precipitation Saturday night were in the 20 to 30 percent range at grid ingest time. The deterministic QPF (approaching 0.25 inch in some areas) looked to be fairly close to the NBM 75th percentile. Arguing against accumulating snow on the ground will be ground temperatures. With highs in the 60s Friday and in the 50s Saturday, it would take some fairly significant snowfall rates to overcome ground temperatures. Bottom line...Is there a chance of snow Saturday night? Yes, but there`s currently a higher probability that no measurable precipitation at all occurs. Over the next 24 hours or so, we`ll be getting into the range where higher resolution modeling becomes more available at those time steps, and hopefully resolves the differences in current output giving us a more confident forecast. Beyond the Saturday night system, high pressure should keep precipitation away from the local area until about Tuesday night or Wednesday, when a southern stream shortwave could spread rain back into the area. Temperatures from Sunday through mid-week next week are expected to generally be below normal, perhaps as much as 10 degrees or so on Sunday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Low clouds are leaving the region as we speak but all terminals are already in VFR status and will remain that way through the forecast. Only other impact at this time is the wind and that is a very minor impact. Winds are strongest right now at MSY and NEW as they come off the lake but winds will begin to relax a few hours after sunrise with generally light northwest winds by this afternoon. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Small Craft Advisories will remain in place as currently depicted until expiration Thursday afternoon, having seen no indications of a need for extension. Conditions should improve for Thursday night into the weekend. Will likely need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for portions of the waters over the weekend, and can`t rule out advisories. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 30 BTR 53 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 52 27 66 44 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 53 37 69 48 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 51 31 64 47 / 0 0 0 20 PQL 52 27 65 45 / 0 0 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ530- 532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ532- 534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1257231 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 646 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section has been updated for the 12z TAF issuance. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. A Cold Weather Advisory is then effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday morning. The chance for measurable precipitation has increased for Sunday morning and afternoon, while confidence on any frozen precipitation remains low. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry and breezy conditions today, with dry conditions persisting into Friday. - 2) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches. - 3) A developing coastal low on Sunday will bring a possibility of snow mixing with rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and breezy conditions today, with dry conditions persisting into Friday. A strong cold front is timed to reach the GA/SC coast around sunrise, pushing east over the Atlantic through the rest of the day. Near term guidance indicates strong CAA through the day, with H85 temperatures falling to -5 to -10C by this afternoon. The air mass will be further dried by downslope flow in the lee of the southern Appalachians and deep mixing to 4.5 to 5.5 kft. As a result, sfc dewpoints will fall through the daylight hours today, dropping into the single digits to low teens. RH values between 20 to 25 percent should be common. The combination of gusty northwest winds, low RH, and mostly sunny conditions should rapidly dry fine fuels from yesterday`s light rainfall. To highlight the enhanced wildfire risk, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. The center of the dry air mass will build across the Southeast U.S. on Friday. Dewpoints could be as low as the single digits at a few locations mid-day Friday, most areas between 10 to 15 degrees. As temperatures reach around 50 degrees Friday afternoon, RH values may range from the upper teens to around 20 degrees west of I-95, to the mid to upper 20s to the east. Fortunately, the weak pressure gradient should only support winds around 10 mph. No Fire Danger Statements are expected for Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday morning. Surface high pressure over southern LA/ MS Thursday evening will quickly move east and center across northern FL by Friday morning. This will allow winds to go calm across all of coastal GA and SC. PWATs will also be around 0.10" (or daily minimum values) and with skies clear, near ideal radiational cooling conditions are forecast. Expect low temperatures in the upper teens west of I-95 and in the typical colder spots. Along and east of the I-95 corridor to about US Highway 17, expect low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s. Along the beaches, expect low temperatures in the upper 20s (including the Charleston Peninsula). Temperatures will be below freezing for 8 to 12 hours. KEY MESSAGE 3: A developing coastal low on Sunday will bring a possibility of snow mixing with rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Rex Block will gradually loose cohesion as a wave situated over the eastern Pacific approaches from the west. In response to this downstream effect, a substantial shortwave trough will dive southeast out of Manitoba and approach the region on Sunday morning. The shortwave will also start to take on a negative tilt as it approaches coastal SC and GA. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to commence off of the South Carolina Coast. Based on the latest guidance, there are 3 main potential scenarios. (1) Coastal low forms along the SC/ NC coastline * Model Support? The latest run of the GFS (deterministic) and GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows a much wetter and slightly warmer solution. This is due to the coastal low forming right along the SC coast. This would support a cold rain across most of coastal SC and GA, with some frozen precipitation across the Midlands and Upstate of SC. * Precipitation Type: mostly plain rain. A small window is possible for a rain/ snow mix well inland. (2) Coastal low forms off of the SC/ NC coastline * Model Support: The latest run of the ECMWF and 18z EPS (ECMWF ensemble) as well as the GEPS (CMC ensemble) support this solution. Here the coastal low is far enough away from the coast to help tap the colder air already in place, while also not to far away to keep the region dry. * Precipitation Type: plain rain along coastal SC and GA. A rain/ snow mix possible away from the beaches with a brief transition to all snow possible inland. (3) Coastal low forms to far east/ northeast of SC/ GA * Model Support: Limited number of model guidance is still showing this solution. The trend away from this solution started Wednesday morning. * Precipitation Type: plain rain, or none. The 14.12z WPC Cluster Analysis also shows ensemble guidance becoming less and less dispersive (e.g., 72% of the EPS being contained in Cluster 1). Taking a look at the WPC Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis webpage reveals that dueling shortwaves (on the western and eastern flanks of the rex block) accounting for most of the variance in model solutions. This type of setup typically has low confidence. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) continues to show a 5-10% chance of experiencing minor impacts from winter weather on Sunday. Again, caution should be exercised here as the forecast can change, and will likely change over the next couple days. Behind the cold front, temperatures will again be seasonably cold Monday with low temperatures in the mid 20s. Ahead of the approaching high pressure, winds may remain just strong enough (near 5 knots) where wind chills may dip into the 15 to 20 degrees range, with highest probabilities again for the furthest inland areas. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Friday. Prior to the 12Z TAFs, a strong cold front was located near the coast, pushing to the east. In the wake of the front, winds will veer from the west and then northwesterly, becoming gusty. Frequent gusts into the 20-25 knot range are expected beginning shortly after sunrise this morning and continuing through this afternoon. Skies will clear out by mid morning, remaining clear through the rest of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through late week. Another system could impact the region late this weekend. && .MARINE... The marine zones will remain between a strong cold front pushing across the western Atlantic and high pressure centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley today. This pattern will support gusty northwest winds between 25 to 30 kts and elevated wave heights today into late tonight. Wave heights will build through today, peaking between 3-5 ft across the nearshore with 6-8 ft beyond 20 NM this evening. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all marine zones outside the CHS Harbor today into tonight. The center of a large area of high pressure will arrive on Friday and may linger into Saturday, supporting winds around 10 kts with 1- 2 ft seas. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast Saturday night into Sunday, with gusty winds and building seas, possibly reaching Small Craft Conditions across a portion of the waters. High pressure should settle over the region early next week, allowing conditions to remain less than Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for SCZ040-042>044-047. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1257230 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 638 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... As we approach 7 AM EST, had to make some changes to the hourly temperature and dewpoint forecasts to better match up with current trends. Cold front is roughly halfway through the local forecast area, stretching roughly from near the Williamsburg/Georgetown County line up through near the Robeson/Bladen County line. Front is moving a tad slower than previously expected. Elsewhere, updated 12Z TAF discussion found below. All other parts of the previous forecast still in good shape. Fire Danger Statement in effect for all of northeast South Carolina from 10 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening. The risk for accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday has decreased slightly, especially near the coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fire Danger Statement in Effect for Northeast SC from 10 AM EST - 7 PM EST. 2) Wind Chills in the Upper Teens to Lower 20s Tonight. 3) Mainly light snow accumulation possible Sunday into Sunday night, with black ice and/or dangerously low wind chills possible Sunday night. 4) Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Fire Danger Statement in Effect for Northeast SC from 10 AM EST - 7 PM EST. A strong cold front will push through the area this morning. Dry air will quickly infiltrate behind the front. Widespread dewpoints in the teens by midday, sinking further into the single digits by late this afternoon. Relative humidity values won`t have a problem dipping down into the 25-30% range. Meanwhile, an increase in pressure gradient after the frontal passage will make for a blustery day. After a bit of a lull in the morning, winds out of the northwest will kick up to 14-17 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. This combination of dry air and blustery winds, along with the ongoing drought, all of the NWS offices that cover SC decided to issue Fire Danger Statements for the entire state. Conditions are expected to be at their worst from 10 AM EST this morning through 7 PM EST this evening. Very similar conditions persist for southeast NC, though for now, we are holding off on a Fire Danger Statement for this area. Further collaboration will take place among the NC NWS offices and the North Carolina Forest Service (NCFS) later this morning. Either way, despite the cold temperatures, Fire Danger Statement or not, it`s not a good day to burn. Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do, please use extreme caution. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Wind Chills in the Upper Teens to Lower 20s Tonight. Arctic air will bring very cold temperatures today and tonight. High temperatures this afternoon will only get into the low-to-mid 40s. Bigger story is the lows for tonight, which easily dip down into the upper teens to lower 20s. Some of the traditional cold spots in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties may actually dip down into the lower teens or single digits. Winds start coming down by sunset, but still remain gusty through about the first half of the overnight hours. From there, winds may calm in the remaining 5-6 hours before sunrise, which may lead to some good radiational cooling in some of those aforementioned cold spots. This will be worth watching. For days now, we`ve talked about the possibility of a Cold Weather Advisory during this timeframe, which is where the apparent temperatures (i.e., wind chills) dip down to 15 degrees or lower. In previous forecast cycles, this setup looked more favorable, and now it doesn`t so much. We get plenty cold, just not cold enough to meet the criteria. An argument could be made to perhaps issue the advisory for parts of the Cape Fear region, but it`s a bit of a stretch. For now, we`re holding off on the advisory at this time. We`ll see what new data later today will look like. In any case, these freezing temperatures are detrimental to plants, people, pipes, and plants. Bundle up and take the appropriate precautions. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly light snow accumulation possible Sunday into Sunday night, with black ice and/or dangerously low wind chills possible Sunday night An arctic cold front is expected to approach from the west Saturday night before likely moving through Sunday, although timing is a bit in question as the latest model guidance suggests a slower evolution than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, an approaching deep upper trough from the west will help increase lift/moisture across the region, although the exact evolution of this feature is also uncertain. In any event, the slower frontal passage should keep temperatures above freezing through Saturday night with the risk for any accumulating snow almost zero and mostly confined to areas west of I-95 close to daybreak. However, confidence thereafter remains quite low due to uncertainties in how quickly the cold air moves in and how much moisture is available. Moisture levels overall appear to be increasing so confidence is higher in measurable precipitation occurring, thus the increase in precip chances up to 60%. The risk for measurable snow (0.1" or greater) appears highest in areas to the north and west where temperatures will be coldest, with areas closer to the coast more likely to just see some snow mix in with the rain before ending later in the day, with an even lower risk for snow accumulations there. The latest GFS ensembles continue to be more aggressive (compared to the Euro/Canadian ensembles) showing ~a 50% chance of at least 1" of snow near/west of I-95 with a 10% or less chance near the coast. The chance for at least 3" is only about 20-30% west of I-95. In any event, another concern is that any wet roadways by late Sunday will re-freeze Sunday night as temps fall into the 20s/upper teens, so black ice could make travel hazardous. Furthermore, the cold temps and winds will lead to wind chills down to around 15 degrees Sun night so a Cold Weather Advisory may eventually be needed, especially for areas near/west of I-95. Needless to say, everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast for early next week, especially if you have travels plans. Note: The last widespread measurable snow across our area was January 21-22, 2025. Additional flurries and snow showers occurred on November 10, 2025. KEY MESSAGE 4: Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday night and Tuesday night Another strong cold front should move through Monday night leading to a continuation of below normal temperatures and low wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory levels (15 degrees) Monday night as well as Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the 12Z TAF period, albeit gusty. Starting to see more NW winds at KFLO and KLBT, where the cold front has now passed, while KILM, KCRE, and KMYR still have WSW winds. Some VFR ceilings currently lingering near the coast, but will change to SKC for all terminals within the next hour or two. Winds will continue to veer to the NW without much in the way of gusts at first. Gradient winds will start increasing considerably by midday, where gusts could go up to 20-25 kts by the early afternoon. Winds will gradually start coming down during and after sunset, leveling off by around midnight. Light and variable to calm winds prevail towards the end of the TAF period. Extended Forecast...VFR Friday through Saturday. Low confidence in flight restrictions and possible frozen precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Back to VFR Sunday night through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory continues along the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 1 AM EST tonight. Strong cold front on the way, which will move through the coastal waters later this morning. Stout southwesterly winds will start veering towards the northwest after the frontal passage, perhaps coming down below advisory criteria briefly, but quickly come back up again by early afternoon. May even record a gale force gust or two this evening, but occurrence is nowhere near enough to consider a watch or warning. Seas at 2-4 ft at the coast, 5-6 ft out 20 nm from shore this morning, leveling out slightly to 3- 4 ft everywhere by the afternoon. Late tonight after the advisory expires, look for winds coming down to around 15 kts and seas coming down slightly to 2-4 ft. Friday through Monday Night...Moderate to high confidence. Winds/seas will remain elevated prior to and after a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday with a moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds (gusts of 25+ knots) through Sunday eve with a low risk again Mon night behind another cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1257229 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 538 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - After yesterday`s front, look for a dry chilly day today, with a short warmup Friday...until another front moves through late in the afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend, but have little rain potential. - The trend of a quick succession of disturbed weather persists next week, including another cold front and a coastal trough that will bring our next decent chances of rain. - Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 One front through, but more to go! This evening is a bit blustery around the area, with winds of 10-15 mph along with gusts into the teens and lower 20s...as high as 30 mph down on the island. These winds should gradually taper down overnight, but things still look a bit gusty by morning particularly closer to the coast, with winds of 5-10 mph but paired with lingering gusts into the teens. The next few hours also look quite chilly, with a light freeze north of Huntsville. We`ll see winds continue to weaken through the day as weak high pressure slides across the region from Central Texas towards the North Central Gulf Coast. This sets us up for a fully sunny day, but still fairly chilly and quite dry on Thursday. Like yesterday, fuels conditions are still near normal moisture, even still above normal in localized spots. But, with underlying drought conditions, drier fuels will be able to emerge more rapidly than typical, especially in grassy areas - despite the weakening winds, the very low RH forecast would probably mean that it`s another day to avoid work with things that can throw sparks and open flame, unless you`re doing a professional prescribed burn that is looking for these specific conditions to achieve the desired benefit. By Thursday evening, the high will have moved off well to our east, returning onshore flow for much of the day Friday. This will help return a modest amount of humidity to the area, though dry spots out west could still see RH briefly dip below 30 percent, so we`re not getting real humid here. But, with the wind shift shutting off the cold advection machine, another mostly sunny day should help temps rise back up into the 60s to lower 70s. Warm weather lovers, don`t get too attached! This bit of slightly above average temps will be cut off when our next front comes through late Friday afternoon. This puts us on track for a day Saturday that looks very much like Thursday will. Mostly sunny but chilly with some gusty north winds. Onshore flow looks to be slower to come back, more by Sunday evening, so the weekend as a whole looks like it will be a seasonably cool one - chillier than the average, but not by a significant amount, so pretty recognizable as "winter in Southeast Texas". Monday puts us on the upswing of this pendulum, with temperatures and humidity a bit higher, but ultimately will be cut short again by a front Monday night. Now...here`s where we start to see things get a little more mixed up, but one thing that will stay is a progressive pattern of disturbances, so don`t expect the weather to be too stable. Indeed, that will help hold down confidence in the specifics, but the guidance seems to be settling in on a broad scenario that we can sketch out for now and flesh out in the coming days. Without a ton of time for moisture return again, the frontal passage does not look to carry a lot of rain chances on it. But, it should be more significant than this week`s fronts. I have slight chances in the area, centered more towards the coast, through Monday night and into Tuesday. But where things look more promising for rain is with the development of a coastal trough/warm front on the frontal zone left behind. As that drifts northward, we`ll get more significant onshore flow and moisture return. The surface trough will also provide a focus for rainfall development, so PoPs continue to go up through the day next Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually tailing off Thursday. Where the best potential for rain will be is going to depend very much on how far inland this coastal trough can lift, and getting too specific on that now is far too speculative. But, for now, we have PoPs up to 30 percent even well inland. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming variable through the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Strong northwesterly to northerly winds and rougher seas are occurring across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front and a small craft advisory will persist through the night and into Thursday morning. Deeper into the day, conditions will gradually improve, with light and more variable winds by evening. Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions of the bays. Onshore winds return Thursday evening, but only briefly before the next cold front arrives Friday night. Early next week will bring continued disturbed weather, along with our next decent chances for rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 59 42 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 59 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 58 52 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-335. Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1257228 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 641 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions today through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve. - A prolonged and significant cooldown begins today. While Friday morning will be the coldest, another front moving through on Sunday will bring a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps early next week. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Highly amplified pattern aloft this morning featuring a strong W CONUS ridge that extends into Alaska and deepening E CONUS trough downstream will favor the coldest air of the season as a polar air mass spills south out of Canada and across the central/eastern U.S. and into the FL peninsula. At the surface, a cold front currently approaching the peninsula represents the leading edge of the cold air, advecting southward as the trailing Canadian surface high drops across the Plains into the Deep South. A pre- frontal band of showers, some locally moderate to heavy, spreads from the Nature Coast southward across WCFL and into SWFL. Showers will taper off from north to south across the area later this morning, with lingering SWFL showers clearing by early afternoon while breezy to gusty N/NW winds develop across the area. High pressure then moves across the SE U.S. through Friday, setting the stage for freezing to near-freezing temps for the majority of the area on Friday morning. A series of reinforcing cold fronts move across the area this weekend into early next week in association with shortwave disturbances rotating around the base of the E CONUS trough, precluding any sustained warming trend across the area through mid week, while overall conditions remain dry aside from a chance of showers on Sunday. Primary feature of note through the forecast period remains hazardous and potentially dangerous cold temps and wind chills. For Friday morning, a Freeze Warning is in effect for all forecast zones except for central and southern coastal locations along with inland portions of Sarasota and Lee counties, where temps are currently expected to remain a few degrees above freezing. All forecast zones are under a Cold Weather Advisory for the same period, as wind chills will drop below 35 degrees across WC/SWFL, and below 25 degrees across the Nature Coast. Not as cold on Saturday morning with freezing temps confined to the Nature Coast, and on Sunday morning when area lows remain above freezing. Colder again on Monday morning with sub-freezing temps likely from the Nature Coast into WC/SWFL, followed by slowly moderating temps over the next few mornings through mid week. High temps generally remain in the 50s and 60s through the period, with a brief respite of lower 70s for central and southern locations on Saturday before the early week cooldown, then warming back into the 70s mid to late week next week as the cool air mass moderates more substantially. Morning lows drop into the 20s and 30s on Friday and again on Monday, and remain mostly in the 30s and 40s otherwise, with some lower 50s south of I-4 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Showers continue to linger across the region early this morning. These showers will end from northwest to southeast throughout the morning hours. Ceilings will remain around the threshold of MVFR/VFR throughout the morning. For the TAFs, went on the pessimistic side with MVFR conditions throughout the morning. Northwesterly winds will become gusty later this morning and will remain elevated throughout much of the day. These winds will subside around 23-02z. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Poor marine conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours with advisory level winds and seas developing as gusty N/NW flow overspreads the waters as high pressure builds in the wake of a passing cold front this morning. Conditions improve by the weekend, however, a cold front late in the weekend may be accompanied by another round of hazardous marine conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 No Red Flag conditions expected through the period, however, cold dry air masses filtering into the state late this week and again early next week will lead to critical minimum RHs, although winds are currently expected to remain below threshold values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 61 36 60 44 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 68 36 65 48 / 70 0 0 0 GIF 61 33 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 65 36 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 58 24 59 32 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 63 41 60 50 / 50 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1257226 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 621 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer with a slower cold front today. Highs may reach the upper 40s for most of the region with perhaps a few 50 degree readings in the I-95 corridor. This has reduced the threat for daytime snow squalls but there is still a chance for rain or even graupel showers during the afternoon. A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Friday night into Saturday mainly northwest of I-95. There is the potential for a plowable snowfall across parts of the region Sunday into Sunday night night if coastal low pressure tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. High confidence in a shot of arctic air later Monday into Wednesday with bitterly cold wind chills possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably mild today with a few rain and elevation snow showers possible. Turning windy and much colder tonight and Friday. - A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Fri night into Sat with temps rising above freezing outside the highest terrain by afternoon. Bulk of the snow likely northwest of I-95. - Coastal storm may bring a plowable snow to parts of the region Sun into Sun night if it tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. - Shot of arctic air follows later Mon into Wed with bitterly cold wind chills and highs temps held between 15 and 25 Tue into Wed. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray/gale force wind gusts across our waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably mild today with a few rain and elevation snow showers possible. Turning windy and much colder tonight and Friday. Unseasonably mild today with high temps generally between 45 and 50...but the big story will be much colder and windy weather working into the region tonight and Friday. Winds ramp up behind the front with an increasing pressure gradient as low pressure deepens to the north. Northwest winds at 850mb increase to 40 to 50 kts as low level lapse rates increase to 7.5-9 C/km. This will translate to a gusty day with wind gusts steadily increasing through the afternoon and overnight peaking around 30-40 mph. Mid level temperature change will be somewhat dramatic through the afternoon with 850 mb temps falling from +1C this morning to -14C tonight. Lows Friday morning will be 15 to 20F colder than the night previous, in the teens. However, the bigger story will be the frigid wind chill values, in the -5 to +10F range for most location. It will be a brief shot of arctic air, though, with a warmer airmass right behind it. Generally dry weather prevails today...but a few brief rain showers/elevations snow showers possible. May even see some graupel with instability and cold temps aloft. Strong/cold westerly flow may allow for lake effect moisture to result in a few brief flurries/snow showers tonight with perhaps even a localized snow squall. Overall though the main story will be the much colder temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Fri night into Sat with temps rising above freezing outside the highest terrain by afternoon. Bulk of the snow likely northwest of I-95. A ridge of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast moves east and further away from the region Fri night into Sat. In response...shortwave energy lifts northeast across western and northern New England along with a few weak waves of low pressure. In response...a modest southwest LLJ will develop very late Fri night into Sat and over run the cold dome at the surface. The result will be snow developing after midnight and particularly toward daybreak across interior southern New England continuing at times on Sat. A coating to 2" of snow is possible northwest of I-95 which may result in some slippery travel across the interior into Sat morning. However...southerly flow will result in temps rising above freezing across all locations except the highest terrain by Sat afternoon. So while snow may still be in the air Sat afternoon...most treated roadways will just be wet by that time. The deeper forcing and moisture is focused across the interior...but may see a brief period of light snow near and even southeast of I-95. Regardless...southerly winds will be advecting warmer air into eastern MA/RI with temps rising into the upper 30s and lower 40s Sat afternoon. So really no concerns in this region and any light snow that reaches into this region would change to light rain by afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal storm may bring a plowable snow to parts of the region Sun into Sun night if it tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. There continues to be a large spread in the track/intensity and timing of coastal low pressure for the latter half of the weekend. The guidance continues to struggle with several pieces of northern stream energy along with their timing and amplitude. This will ultimately determine whether or not phasing can occur with southern stream energy. This would allow upper flow to become more amplified resulting in low pressure system tracking closer to the coast with a more significant impact. Lack of phasing would allow for the low to track further east with a more limited impact. Given this is still a day 4 forecast...all options still remain on the table. The 00z GFS/CMC models continue to have a track closer to the coast potentially bringing a plowable snow to parts of the region. Meanwhile...the 00z ECMWF/UKMET have a track further east with more of a light glancing blow to eastern New England. There also remains quite the spread on the individual ensemble members of each model...showing that we need to keep all options on the table at this point. We did want to point out that the EPS AI ensembles are much closer to the coast with a more significant impact than the regular EPS ensembles. Certainly could be a signal that the EC may correct further west...but again too early to lock in any potential outcomes. KEY MESSAGE 4...Shot of arctic air follows later Mon into Wed with bitterly cold wind chills and highs temps held between 15 and 25 Tue into Wed. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray/gale force wind gusts across our waters. Regardless of what happens Sun into Sun night...long range ensembles are in very good agreement on upper level ridging across western North America with a deep trough across the eastern states for the first half of next week. An arctic cold front crosses the region Mon with bitterly cold air working into the region in the later Mon to Wed time frame. 850T will likely drop into the -20C to -24C for a time. This should result in high temps only in the 15 to 25 degree range Tue and Wed. Lows should drop into the 0 to 10 degree range with perhaps some below zero readings. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray and gale force wind gusts across our waters. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today...High confidence on trends with moderate confidence on timing. A wide variety of conditions very early this morning with patches of low clouds and fog especially across interior MA. There also were a few rain showers early this morning. We should see conditions improve to VFR in most locations by mid afternoon. This a result of light southerly winds shifting to the SW and becoming gusty between 20 and 25 this afternoon with even a few gusts near 30 knots by mid to late afternoon. Dry weather outside a brief spot shower/elevation snow shower. Tonight...High confidence. VFR outside a brief spot flurry/snow shower. W wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Friday...High confidence. VFR. W wind wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots with a few gusts up to 35 knots. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, chance RA. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday...High Confidence. A strong cold front crosses the region today allowing for winds to pick back up as the day wears along with SW winds shifting more to the W with 25 to 30 knot gusts. Strong CAA will result in W 35-40 knot wind gusts tonight into Friday with light freezing spray. Seas across the southern waters will build to between 6 and 11 feet by early Friday. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1257227 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 530 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Wind chills fall into the teens to low 20s by sunrise and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9am. Very cold temperatures are expected again tonight. - Gusty conditions are expected through this morning area-wide. Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft today with gale conditions over the offshore Gulf waters through mid-morning. - There has been an increasing trend in the probability of wintry precipitation for a portion of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 The area begins to dry out overnight as the cold rain showers finally exited our Florida panhandle counties just before midnight. Buckle up because it`s only downhill from here (speaking only about the temperatures) as we quickly take a nose dive into the mid to upper 20s across inland counties with 30s across the coastal counties by sunrise. Northerly winds will remain gusty overnight and into the morning hours as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting cold front and approaching surface high. Given these gusty conditions, temperatures will feel much colder with a wind chill in the teens across inland counties and low to mid 20s across the coastal counties in the pre-dawn hours this morning. These apparent temperatures are what prompted a Cold Weather Advisory which continues through 9am. Daytime temperatures won`t be much better with highs only reaching into the 40s for most spots today. The aforementioned surface high slides east through the day and moves overhead as we roll into the overnight hours. While this will lead to even colder temperatures by sunrise on Friday, it also means that the winds will be light, so the wind chill will not be as big of an factor and thus we will not need a Cold Weather Advisory for Friday morning. The roller coaster of weather and temperatures continues as we roll into Friday. The surface high slides further to our east and winds turn southerly allowing temperatures to briefly rebound into the 60s. Soak up the mild temperatures and weather while you can on Friday because it doesn`t last long. Rain showers are possible late Friday night into early Saturday ahead of yet another cold front. Moisture return ahead of the front isn`t overwhelmingly high with PWATs hovering around 0.6-0.8 inches overnight. Any precipitation that does fall will be in the form of cold rain - nothing wintry with this round of precipitation. Saturday currently looks to be dry in the wake of the front for much of the area. That said, there are some signs in the guidance that the front may not fully push across the area and may stay draped from southwest to northeast across the Gulf waters just to our south. Temperatures will still manage to rise into the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday. All eyes turn to the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe. Saturday night is NOT an easy forecast. The secondary front comes crashing into the area and with it comes the potential for precipitation. A LOT of key components need to lock in place for us to get measurable snow across our area and while there are some favorable conditions (ample lift and cold air), there are also a few components that we are missing/watching closely. Precipitation will begin as rain on Saturday night because, as you will recall, temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s ahead of this front and it will take some time for those temperatures to plunge into the 20s and 30s overnight. From there, there are two general scenarios that could play out (there are more than two, but these seem like our best options). Scenario A - A brief round of rain showers ahead of the cold temperatures as the precipitation shield outruns the incoming cold. Scenario B - The cold temperatures come crashing into the area overnight alongside the precipitation shield leading to snow. I could see either scenario happening and while the deterministic guidance is certainly leaning heavily toward the second scenario, I wouldn`t discount the first scenario quite yet. We`ll have a better handle on snow versus rain once the high- resolution model guidance starts to come in. *IF* and that`s a big if, snow does fall in our area overnight Saturday into early Sunday, the eastern half of our area (south- central Alabama and interior northwest Florida) have the best chance for accumulations. There`s a big caveat here because, again, the high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday, so there`s a decent chance that any snow that falls will struggle (at first) to accumulate given that prior warmth. The surface wet bulb may also be too warm for significant snowfall accumulation (note that a few degrees will mean all the difference in the world here). Now that the caveats and scenarios are out of the way, it`s worth mentioning that the probabilities for accumulating snow (anything greater than 0.01 inches) have jumped significantly in comparison to last nights guidance - eyebrow raising for sure. The probability of seeing a trace or more of snow on last night`s runs hovered around 10-15% across a portion of the area...and on tonight`s runs, we`re now looking at around 40% probability of a trace of snow across the area. While we currently have accumulating snowfall in our forecast, it`s generally less than an inch and that amount *should be taken with a grain of salt*. It`s very difficult to narrow down favorable locations and timing for wintry precipitation this far out in time, let alone accumulation...and this assumes we even get snow and the precipitation shield doesn`t play tricks on us and decides to outrun the bitter cold air. I could write a novel on all the scenarios and how this could or could not pan out, but for the sake of time, I`ll leave you with this - it might snow, it might not. Please keep an eye out for our upcoming forecasts as we continue to refine what we know and what we don`t know regarding this potential event. The area dries out on Sunday and temperatures rebound into the 40s and 50s late in the weekend through the middle of next week. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through for our Alabama beaches with a brief bump to a MODERATE risk across the Florida panhandle beaches Friday night. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Northerly to northwesterly winds at around 10-15 knots, with higher gusts up to 25 knots, will continue through the afternoon hours. Winds tonight become light and variable. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Offshore flow increases through the morning behind a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected continue through much of the day with gale conditions over the offshore waters through mid-morning. Offshore flow gradually decreases this afternoon through the overnight. A light onshore flow develops on Friday before turning northwesterly Saturday morning behind the next cold front. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 50 30 66 46 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 49 33 63 51 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 50 34 62 52 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 47 23 64 41 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 47 26 63 38 / 0 0 0 30 Camden 43 24 60 40 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 48 22 63 44 / 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1257225 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 631 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold and dry today behind a cold front. Gale Warnings issued for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for strong SW winds early this morning and strong NW winds which will develop this evening through most of tonight. Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry mix/snow Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Arctic air returns to ENC and wind chills drop to 10-15 degrees early tomorrow morning behind a strong cold front. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. 2) Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry mix/snow Sunday. 3) MARINE: Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet this evening through tonight, while strong Small Craft conditions develop elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will move through ENC later this morning with an Arctic airmass building in behind it today. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by daybreak and will struggle to warm much past the low 40s this afternoon. Increasing NW winds will make it feel like the 20s to low 30s for most of the day. Tonight, CAA continues with temps falling into the upper teens to low 20s overnight, and wind chills will range from 10-15 degrees after midnight through about 8-9 am Friday. A Cold Weather Advisory may need to be issued later today, but confidence wasn`t high enough at this juncture to issue. KEY MESSAGE 2... A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Exactly how far south (of ENC) this front reaches, where the low forms along the front, and how strong the low becomes are the main questions at this time frame. If the low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in place for any wintry precip except for across the northern coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC. The current forecast favors a colder solution, somewhat similar to the GFS and GEFS, but is well away from the even colder ECMWF and EPS solutions. Other deterministic guidance remains much warmer. Also, precip amounts show a wide range of solutions from as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch. We will continue to closely monitor the trends for this system. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Cold front is currently making its way E`wards across ENC this morning. While we have remained VFR through the overnight hours some increasing MVFR ceilings at 2.5-3.0 kft has been noted just to the west. While these MVFR ceilings may clip the region, given the expected short duration of MVFR ceilings, generally 1 hr or less if they were to impact a TAF site, have only kept a SCT cloud deck at 2.5 kft to account for this lower end possibility. Otherwise VFR conditions will then persist behind the front through Fri nght as high pressure builds in from the west. Once the front pushes offshore, expect clear skies across the region into Fri morning. Behind the front, breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts to 20-25 kt possible especially across the coastal plain mid morning Thurs through Thurs evening before winds gradually begin to ease. Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions Fri and Sat. No changes to Sun as we continue to monitor for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight categories Sun, with a return to VFR conditions likely on Mon. && .MARINE... Gale conditions have developed under SW winds across the warmer nearshore waters south of Oregon Inlet this morning, and are expected to continue until the cold front crosses through the area. Thereafter, a brief lull is anticipated when winds will dip down to 20-25 kts, until winds restrengthen out of the NW this evening to 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts. Marginal Small craft conditions will continue across most of the other marine areas this morning ahead of the cold front. Stronger winds behind the front this evening through tonight will bring Small Craft conditions to all the remaining waters, and there could be some Gale Force gusts across the Pamlico Sound and nearshore waters north of Oregon Inlet. Seas will be 5-7 ft through tonight, and then subside to below 6 ft by mid tomorrow morning. Outlook: After a brief improvement Friday, Small Craft conditions will likely redevelop Saturday ahead of a cold front, and then again late Sunday behind the front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-135-150- 230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning until 3 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1257224 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 515 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 505 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Hazardous Marine conditions continue through Thursday afternoon - A dry cold front late Friday/early Saturday, reinforcing cooler temperatures - Low to moderate chance (35-65%) for freezing temperatures from La Salle to Victoria counties early Sunday morning - Rain chances return early next week with increasing moisture and large-scale ascent && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A meridional mid-level pattern remains in place, with a deep trough centered near the Great Lakes and high pressure over northern CA/NV. A mid-level low approaching the southern CA coast will allow deeper moisture to spread into our region early next week. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas around 03-06Z Saturday, followed by somewhat breezy northeasterly winds and hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Saturday. A brief cool-down will follow frontal passage, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s inland, the 40s across the Coastal Bend and around 50 degrees along the immediate coast. The NBM indicates a low to moderate chance (35-65%) of temperatures briefly dipping to freezing or lower across the northern tier of South Texas counties from northern Webb and La Salle to Victoria. Wind chills may fall to around 25 degrees in isolated northeastern locations and into the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Afternoon temperatures Sunday, will be very similar to Saturday, a bit warmer Monday (70s) and cooler again Tuesday (60-65) behind the next cold front. Deterministic guidance brings the next cold front across the region late Monday into early Tuesday, though confidence in timing remains low. Chances of rain showers increase modestly with FROPA with a low to moderate (20-45%) chance across much of the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday. Shower chances persist through mid-week as a coastal trough/surface low develops over the region and shifts eastward. PWAT`s values per the GFS exceed the 99th percentile, while the GEFS ensemble mean above the 75th percentile. Current WPC guidance Day 1 through 7, supports QPF totals near 0.50" along coastal regions with isolated higher amounts possible. Of course, with differences between operational models and uncertainty, the QPF could change and will need to keep an eye on trends and adjust the forecast as necessary. High temperatures after Tuesday are expected to gradually warm back into the low to mid 70s by late week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions will persist through the TAF cycle. Generally light winds are expected today, though there are stronger winds, 15 knot gusting to 25 knots, at CRP this morning. Expect these will diminish to below 12 knots by 17Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly breeze will decrease throughout the day today becoming light and variable by this evening. Tomorrow a moderate (BF 4) southerly breeze will usher in low-level moisture inland ahead of this weekend`s cold front. Behind the front on Saturday, flow shifts northeast and becomes strong (BF6) with Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds gradually decrease through Sunday with an onshore light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze returning late Sunday. Winds gradually increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) and become more easterly early Tuesday as a weaker cold front approaches and stalls over the waters. Low to moderate rain chances (30-45%) will return Saturday and again Tuesday into Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundaries interact with available moisture. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Another cold front is expected this weekend late Friday into early Saturday. Minimum RH values through Sunday are progged to remain less than 30% for the inland regions. Northeasterly winds behind the front will range between 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. ERC values around the 70th percentile will peak between the 75th-80th percentile Saturday and Sunday contributing to elevated Fire Weather concerns. Considering light winds today limiting the fire weather potential have opted to not issue a Fire Danger Statement. However by Saturday, more elevated winds and ERC values combined with dry fuels and a moderate fire danger, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible this weekend and an RFD/RFW may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 64 47 76 52 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 64 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 69 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 67 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 68 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 66 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 54 72 56 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ231-232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1257223 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 616 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for early this morning for parts of our area for wind chills below 25 degrees (western Florida Panhandle) or below 20 degrees (southeastern Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia). An additional Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for our Florida counties for tonight into Friday morning. - A Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze (25F or lower) is now in effect for tonight into Friday morning for our entire area outside of the panhandle coast. - Hazardous marine conditions will continue today behind the cold front. Gale warnings continue for the offshore Gulf waters between Apalachicola and the Walton-Okaloosa line with small craft advisories elsewhere. - There is a low to medium chance (30-50%) of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning for much of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and portions of the western Florida Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Cold air advection will dominate today with breezy conditions as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s today across many locations. This will set up a very cold night for tonight with a hard freeze likely for many locations. The brunt of the cold airmass will arrive tonight as the center of a strong high pressure area settles overhead. The combination of clear skies and calm winds will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions over much of the area. A dry airmass will be in place, and this is expected to lead to plunging temperatures after sunset with overnight lows in the lower 20s across the region away from the immediate coast. A few normally colder locations have a medium chance to dip into the upper teens. The Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze tonight has been upgraded to warning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 For Friday and Saturday, a quick warming trend commences as temperatures warm back into the upper 50s to middle 60s ahead of the next cold front. Another strong cold front will sweep through the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Although moisture return will be limited, the dynamics will be strong, and the latest thinking on snow chances for Sunday is below. The previous discussion expertly laid out the three possible scenarios. Any of the three scenarios below is still plausible. Scenario #1: The precipitation outruns the cold and we`re stuck with an all rain event. The cold is delayed just long enough to limit any snow accumulation potential. Scenario #2: The cold arrives, as advertised, and allows for a sudden change over to snow. If this scenario were to play out, then there would be a 1 to 3 hour window for snow before quickly exiting to the east later on Sunday morning. Scenario #3: The trough is a little more east than forecast and we get a dry frontal passage. That means little to no rain and no snow with just cold temperatures. Based on the 00z model and ensemble trends, scenario #3 is looking less likely. The models are trending a little stronger and farther west with the upper trough, so we will probably not see a simple, dry frontal passage. That would be too easy. That leaves us with either scenario #1 or scenario #2 to deal with. The 01z NBM, which is weighted heavily with the 12z and 18z guidance from Wednesday, has the probability for greater than 1 inch of snow at generally 20% across our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties. Probabilities for greater than 2 inches of snow are about 10% along and north of a line from Geneva county to Albany. This is a very different scenario than last year`s winter storm for a few reasons. 1) We are not expecting any freezing rain to occur. 2) Surface temperatures will be marginal for this event if we get any snow at all. 3) Total liquid equivalent precipitation amounts appear to be less than last year`s event. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this is a cold chasing moisture scenario, and usually when cold air is not already in place down here, it`s very hard to get significant winter weather, although not impossible. We`ll continue to monitor the potential the next couple of days and adjust the forecast as necessary. Be sure to remain updated with the latest weather forecast and get your weather information from trusted sources. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 At 11Z, satellite and surface obs indicate some lingering low clouds leading to brief MVFR cigs at TLH and VLD; trends show low clouds exiting these terminals by 14Z, so TAFs include a TEMPO for this potential. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds gust around 20 kts until diminishing closer to 00Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will continue through today behind a strong cold front. Northwesterly wind gusts to gale force are expected for the offshore waters west of Apalachicola with advisory level winds in excess of 20 knots elsewhere. Winds will quickly decrease tonight and Friday as a high center passes directly across the waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the waters on Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 High dispersions are forecast today behind a cold front with strong and gusty transport winds. MinRH will fall to near critical values this afternoon and Friday afternoon across portions of southwestern Georgia and the Florida big bend, although winds will be lighter on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 No flooding is anticipated for the next several days. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals with the next system over the weekend are currently forecast to be around 0.25 inches or less. However, there is a low to medium chance (30-50%) that the system could trend stronger and bring portions of the area over 0.50" of precipitation. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 48 26 56 42 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 51 32 62 53 / 0 0 0 30 Dothan 46 25 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 46 21 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 48 23 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 54 22 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 49 32 60 52 / 0 0 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ007>011. Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127- 128-134-326-426. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118- 127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>124-126-142. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Friday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ770-772. && $$ |
| #1257222 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 620 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - A significant cooldown is on the way behind today`s cold front, prompting a Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning for much of east central Florida - Showers ending through the morning from west to east as drier air moves across the peninsula - Temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday before another strong cold front arrives Sunday afternoon, producing cold mornings and cool afternoons through at least Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Today-Tonight...The strong cold front, advertised to bring sharply colder air to east central Florida, is on its way into the northern part of the state this morning. To illustrate the temperature difference, as of 2 AM, it was 58 degrees in Melbourne. Tallahassee was 50 degrees and Atlanta, Georgia was 33 degrees. Showers are quickly moving from west to east across the FL Peninsula, though radar indicates that some of this activity is working to overcome residual dry air in the mid levels. With regard to rain chances, this forecast follows closely to the hourly NBM and a blend of CAM guidance, suggesting showers ending around midday. As the front itself pushes south through the area from daybreak onward, northwest winds are expected to increase. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph are forecast, ushering in cooler, drier air from the north. Highs today in many spots will occur late morning or early in the afternoon before the cooler air starts to filter south in the afternoon. Cloud cover from the morning is forecast to erode north to south after lunchtime as model soundings show rapid drying occurring behind the front. While winds do decrease some this evening into tonight, speeds remain 5-10 mph through early Friday morning (up to 15 mph at the coast). With clear sky conditions and efficient cold air advection, temperatures will plummet after dark into the 30s and 40s. Wind chill values around midnight are likely to approach the freezing mark, particularly near and north of I-4. Before temperatures fall this evening/tonight, be sure to bring pets inside and protect plants and pipes from freezing. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory have been issued for most of the area, as a result of forecast lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the 20s before sunrise Friday. Friday-Saturday...Surface high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula Friday, helping to settle wind speeds below 10 mph. As mentioned, Friday morning starts very cold with freezing temperatures in many locations and well-below-freezing wind chills. Before stepping out the door, stay warm by bundling up with extra layers, a hat, and gloves. Despite a full day of sunshine, temperatures Friday afternoon are only forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide. Another cold night is in store Friday night, though there is going to be a bit of a range from north to south. NBM probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees or less are 20-30% across far northwestern Volusia and Lake counties, so we are not anticipating another freeze Saturday morning. 850mb flow from the SSW returns Saturday, helping to warm us up in concert with plenty of sunshine. How about a 70-degree day to thaw things out before more cold arrives Sunday night? If you are looking for the pick day to get outdoors, Saturday is that day. Lows Saturday night remain cool but are about 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to Friday night. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out south of the Cape late Saturday night into Sunday morning, though most activity will remain offshore. Sunday-Wednesday...500mb troughing digs south Sunday morning with formidable energy rounding the base of the trough over central Florida Sunday afternoon. Models favor a band of showers approaching the northwest corner of our area from midday through mid afternoon. However, dry air rushing south behind another strong cold front undercuts precipitation. Thus, only a 15-20% chance of rain is forecast for now, generally Orlando to Cape Canaveral and points north. Northwest winds are also expected to pick back up along and behind the front Sunday afternoon, gusting 20-25 mph. The latest guidance has trended temperatures down, suggesting a repeat of both freezing temperatures and sub-30 degree wind chills again Monday morning. NBM and LREF probabilities of 32 degrees or lower are already 30-60% or higher from south to north over portions of the interior. Overall, Monday looks cold with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. An expansive area of high pressure settles over the central CONUS Tuesday, shifting south and east by midweek. Locally, another cold start to the day is anticipated Tuesday with breezy north winds sending wind chills back into the upper 20s and low 30s. Cold Weather Advisories are likely Monday and possible again Tuesday morning if these trends in wind and temperature guidance persist. High pressure sticks around through Wednesday, and temperatures look to recover by then, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Looking ahead, temperatures close to normal (if not slightly above normal) return Thursday, perhaps lingering through late week or the early part of next weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Marine conditions quickly turn hazardous this morning as a cold front passes over the local waters. Northwest winds are forecast to increase, reaching 20-25 kt by midday and 25-30 kt over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. Occasional gusts to gale force cannot be ruled out over the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories begin early this morning in the offshore marine legs, expanding to include all of the local Atlantic by 10 AM EST. Seas respond, building to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore this afternoon. At their peak, 10 ft seas are possible in the Gulf Stream tonight into early Friday morning. High pressure builds over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters Friday, helping to quickly settle winds and eventually wave heights. Hazardous boating may linger in the offshore through early afternoon with generally favorable conditions resuming everywhere Friday night into Saturday. Seas Saturday morning fall to 1-3 ft. Another strong cold front is set to move through Sunday into early Monday, producing another episode of gusty northwest winds and hazardous seas to start the next work week. Poor to hazardous conditions resume as early as Sunday morning, spreading southward through the day. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into at least Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 VCSH continues at most terminals this morning as a cold front continues southward across the Florida peninsula. Some VIS and CIG reductions have occurred due to -SHRA, so have kept TEMPOs in at MLB southward where activity is strongest. Showers are forecast to diminish by 17Z, with dry and breezy conditions anticipated behind the front. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots will be possible this afternoon, with winds gradually diminishing into the overnight hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible over the next several days. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today will lead to excellent dispersion, along with lower humidity values working into locations north of I-4. On Friday, lighter winds resume but lower humidity builds south across interior east central Florida. Some moisture returns to the area Saturday before another cold front Sunday into Monday brings drier air and sensitive fire conditions early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 31 59 41 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 60 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 64 34 62 47 / 70 0 0 0 VRB 66 34 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 LEE 57 30 59 39 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 59 32 61 41 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 59 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 66 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347- 647. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1257221 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 509 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Mild days, chilly nights, and generally dry weather through the forecast. - Small Craft Advisory conditions along the Lower Texas Coast will prevail at the start of the Coastal Waters Forecast due to the passage of a cold front. - This cold front will also produce dangerous swimming conditions at the local beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 938 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 The most recent surface analysis indicated a cold front has now cleared all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This front, combined with the anticipated passage of another cold front early in the weekend, will produce mild daytime temperatures with chilly nights and generally dry weather through the majority of the forecast. However, long range model guidance suggests that precipitation may re-enter the forecast for the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame courtesy of the approach and passage of a 500 mb trough and associated frontal system. Meanwhile, at the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, a High Risk of rip currents and a High Surf Advisory will prevail due to seas churned by the recent cold front passage. Surf conditions may briefly improve as the work week ends, but the passage of another cold front on Saturday may re-initiate the elevated rip current and surf advisory threat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail with clear skies through the TAF period. Winds diminish into this afternoon and gradually veer from NNW to SE into Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 938 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Initially adverse marine conditions, requiring Small Craft Advisory, will occur due to the passage of a cold front. However, winds and seas will quickly improve as the work week ends, and should remain favorable through the weekend despite the passage of another cold front on Saturday. Afterwards, generally moderate winds and seas are forecast, with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory not likely to be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 68 49 78 58 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 68 44 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 48 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 44 80 51 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 56 73 62 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1257220 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 602 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 558 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers spreading across SoFlo through the late morning hours with a cold front passage. - Low temperatures after a frontal passage with early Friday morning reaching lower 30s around the Lake region, and upper 30s to mid 40s around the metro areas. Apparent temperatures could drop into the mid 20s around the lake, with mid 30s to lower 40s possible for coastal metro areas. - Hazardous marine conditions today with strong west- northwest winds between 25-30kts. This breezy westerly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents and high surf across Collier County beaches beginning this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Models remain in good agreement with the passage of a strong frontal boundary today, with the bulk of the showers ahead of the front expected during the mid-late morning hours. CAM/NBM max POPs remain in the 50-60 percent range as the boundary pushes across the area. Model PWATs remain around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1", which will translate in scattered to numerous showers through the late morning hours with moderate rainfall rates expected. In terms of convection, the combination of very poor CAPE/MUCAPE values and the prevailing cloud cover restraining daytime heating will result in little dynamic support for thunderstorm activity. Any isolated storm that develops will likely be near the coastline. The main concerns will begin this afternoon and evening as winds behind the FROPA shift NW will mark the onset of robust cold air advection. Coldest temperatures across SoFLo on Friday morning will drop into freezing values (30-31F) over Glades and portions of Hendry counties. A Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas, for which residents should take protective actions like bringing sensitive plants indoors, shelter pets, and ensure wearing warm clothing if going outside. Another cold related issue will be wind chills with the northerly flow. Latest ensemble/global guidance show appT values in the mid- upper 20s for northern/interior areas of SoFlo, and up to upper 30s over the coastal metro areas. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the rest of SoFlo, except the metro areas closest to the coastlines. But even residents in those areas should wear warm clothing if going outside early in the morning. Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Broad high pressure expands across the region with temperatures gradually warming up a bit on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Persisting subsidence will keep near zero chances of rain across SoFlo, with maybe a few coastal showers over the Atlantic waters during Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. By Sunday, latest global solutions remain on track showing the onset of another cool down period as a another frontal boundary reaches the area. No significant rain impacts are anticipated as this should be a relatively dry FROPA during the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may drop into the 30s and 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure returns in the wake of the front with prevailing N/NE winds and near zero chances of rain through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with showers will require tempos and AMDs through around 15-16Z as the area of rain associated with the front clears the area. By this afternoon, winds will veer NW and NNW by this evening, with gusts in the 25-30kt range possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Winds shift to the WNW then NW by late this afternoon with a cold front passage across the area. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all coastal waters and the Lake with wind speeds up to 25- 30kt will be possible. Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the frontal passage with most rain activity expected during the morning hours. Conditions should begin to quickly subside Friday morning. && .BEACHES... Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 A strong northerly wind surge will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions across the Gulf beaches later today. The high risk is likely to last into mid- week as winds shift to an east-northeast direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 44 69 59 / 70 0 0 0 West Kendall 76 39 69 53 / 60 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 43 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Homestead 76 43 69 58 / 60 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 42 69 57 / 70 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 41 68 57 / 70 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 42 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Naples 71 40 66 51 / 80 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063- 066>075-172. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063-066. High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069. High Surf Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1257219 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 531 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Very Cold Tonight-Friday Morning. Freeze Warning for all of SE GA and NE FL. Cold Weather Advisory NE FL - Wind Chills in the low to mid 20s - Elevated Fire Danger Today Inland SE GA - Small Craft Advisory through Tonight Gusts near Gale Force - Potential for a Rain/Snow Mix Inland SE GA Sunday Morning - Nightly Freeze/Frost Sunday Night through Tuesday Night && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cloudy with passing light showers early this morning ahead of the anticipated cold front. Rainfall accumulations will be light and generally < 0.10". Rainfall moves offshore of the coast by mid-moring with decreasing cloudiness and gusty NW winds by midday trailing the strong frontal passage. Peak gusts near 30 mph are expected into the afternoon with below normal highs only topping out in the mid to upper 40s for much of southeast GA to the low to mid 50s for northeast FL, about 10 to 15 degrees below average. Tonight, a widespread freeze and frost event is expected and a Freeze Warning is now in effect. There is very high confidence of an inland Hard Freeze (temperatures in the mid 20s or lower) for inland locations with a freeze along the immediate coast. Winds subside through the night as surface high pressure builds directly over the local area. As winds near calm through sunrise Friday, areas to widespread frost are expected to develop. Given forecast lows in the mid 20s and a slight wind chill component toward the coast, apparent temperatures in the low 20s are forecast which meets local Cold Weather Advisory criterion for northeast FL early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cool high pressure centered overhead on Friday will gradually shift southeastward as another cold front moves through the SE US on Saturday. Flow shifts to southwesterly on Friday beginning a warming trend ahead of the front. Friday will still be cold and dry but not as cold as Thursday. Friday highs will be in the 50s area-wide. High pressure over the area and mostly clear skies will allow for Friday night lows to be in the low-mid 30s inland to upper 30s-low 40s near the coast. Elevated winds overnight over inland SE GA will hinder frost development. Patchy inland frost expected for inland NE FL due to its closer proximity to the high pressure center. Temperatures continue to warm to seasonable on Saturday with highs in the low 60s in inland SE GA to low 70s in north-central FL. Limited moisture return ahead of the front will keep pre-frontal shower coverage isolated and light as they approach inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday night into Sunday, an upper shortwave will round the base of a longwave trough digging into the Gulf as a cold front over southern GA moves southeastward through the area. An increase in moisture (PWATs 0.8-1 in) and ample lift from the shortwave and frontal boundary will lead to scattered showers overspreading the area Saturday night and into late Sunday morning. However, the main focus is the potential for rain/snow shower development early Sunday morning. Models have begun to speed up the arrival of the arctic airmass to the area where it could coincide with the precipitation potentially developing some flurries or light snow mixed in with the rain. If any snow does develop, it will be difficult for the full column of air to reach freezing especially near the surface. Snowfall accumulations will likely be zero or very light with snow likely melting before it reaches the surface. Best chance for any snowfall/flurries will be inland SE GA Sunday morning. We will continue to monitor this system and refine the forecast as we get closer to the weekend. High pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front into early next week. Cold and dry conditions return and continue into mid-week next week. Temperatures will once again struggle to warm during the day on Sunday due to strong cold air advection with highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Consecutive frost/freeze events are expected for Monday-Wednesday mornings. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Morning rain was shifting offshore of SGJ with dry conditions expected. Continued with a period of TEMPO MVFR for all terminals between 12z-15/16z as front moves south of the terminals. Improvement to VFR is expected between 14-16z with increasingly gusty NW winds trailing the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds of 12- 16 kts are expected today with gusts near 25 kts. Winds subside this evening to less than 10 kts under VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds increase to Small Craft Advisory levels this morning trailing a cold front passage. Small craft conditions will continue through tonight with occasional gusts near gale force. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure builds directly over the local waters. The high shifts southeast Saturday as another cold front approaches. This front will move across the local waters early Sunday, with a return to Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday night. Winds and seas subside early next week as high pressure builds over the southeast region. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today for northeast FL beaches. Low risk today for southeast GA beaches. Low risk for all local beaches Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Today And Sunday - Elevated Fire Danger Today Inland Se Ga Today - Low Dispersion North-Central Fl Friday And Saturday Breezy northwesterly surface and transport winds develop in the wake of the front bringing high dispersions area-wide this afternoon. A cold and dry airmass filters in for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the 20s. Elevated Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast Georgia Today due to breezy winds and low RHs. High pressure overhead tonight shifts southeastward Friday into Saturday. Low dispersions will be possible across north-central Florida on Friday and Saturday. Another front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday bringing the potential for another round of isolated to scattered showers. Breezy northwesterly winds develop again in the wake of the front on Sunday resulting in high dispersions. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next several days. A widespread freeze is forecast for tonight into Friday morning, including areas to widespread frost. A light inland freeze will be likely each night for several nights beginning Friday Night. && .CLIMATE... Near Record Lows are possible Friday Morning January 16th... Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred. Record Low Temperatures: Jan 16th: JAX: 22/1927 GNV: 20/1927 AMG: 21/1948 CRG: 25/1978 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 46 21 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 52 30 53 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 24 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 55 31 56 40 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 55 25 59 34 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 56 25 58 33 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. GA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1257218 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 454 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have been lowered slightly for this afternoon/tonight. Gale Watch was converted to a Gale Warning north of Parramore Island, and converted to a Small Craft Advisory farther south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front crosses the area this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into this evening in the wake of the front, gusting to 30 to 35 mph. 2) Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. 3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. 4) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 455 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area early this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into tonight in the wake of the front, with increasingly efficient mixing in CAA allowing winds to gust to 30 to 35 mph. Winds diminishing late tonight into early Friday, as cold high pressure builds to the SSW. Yet another shortwave embedded within the potent northern stream trough is lifting through the mid-Atlantic region this morning. This system and its attendant strong surface cold front will be lifting across the local area in the next 2-3 hours. Winds remain SSW along the coast, but have veered around to the W-NW along and west of I-95 portion of the area as of this writing. Temps remain nearly steady until the front crosses into the area. Thereafter, strong CAA post-frontal drives temps down into the upper 30s/lower 40s, with highs likely to be achieved this morning over much of the area. Dewpoints also drop quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits inland during peak mixing. KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. Given diminishing winds, clear sky and the cold, dry airmass building into the region, went a bit below NBM for lows. Look for lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s inland, low to mid 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid teens late tonight. While this is near but just above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, it`s certainly noteworthy given the recent mild temperatures. High pressure moves offshore on Friday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not quite as cold on Saturday ahead of the next Arctic front, with highs ranging from the mid 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. There is a slight chance for some rain showers (some light snow mixing in across the NW half of the area) but moisture is limited as the shortwave is dampening as it crosses the southern Appalachians Sat morning. Turning cold once again Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. Attention then turns to Sunday, as a deep trough digs south from the mid-south toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure forms off the SE coast Sunday morning and lifts NE. 00z/15 guidance has mainly continued the trend of the past few cycles, favoring a stronger surface low closer to the coast, along with a slower/less progressive upper pattern. The 00z GFS and its ensembles remain the slowest with the shortwave, which results in it being most bullish/aggressive with snow totals, as the system takes a neg tilt earlier, allowing for more plentiful snow totals. 00z GEFS probabilities have accordingly increased to 50-80+% for impactful/accumulating snowfall AOA 1" across most of our area (except immediate NE NC coast), highest across inland sections, but its 3+" probs are still low. The ECMWF and EPS are not quite as slow as the GFS, but is farther east with the vorticity max at present, and hence farther offshore with the low and more suppressed with snows. Specifically, EPS 00z snow probs for 1" are lower than GEFS (40-60%+) but have also trended a bit farther east/offshore and are accordingly focused across the Hampton Roads area into NE NC. The chance for at least 3" is still quite low...only about 20%...but is again focused primarily over Hampton Roads and the eastern Carolinas, with little or no snow inland. Much of the remainder of the guidance is more progressive, with precip focused mainly along the coast and offshore. Given the large model spread, it`s still just too early to make any definitive specifics, let alone throwing out snow totals. There are many moving parts to this portion of the forecast, including but not limited to the evolution and orientation of the upper system, the exact track/trend of the attendant surface low, and the presence or absence of an upstream shortwave that, if present, could quicken the upper pattern and shorten the window for potential snows. In short, users are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts over the coming day or two, as the specifics of each of these elements are likely to become more evident. KEY MESSAGE 4...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to persist through the first half of next week. Regardless of the exact evolution of the weekend system, another reinforcing shot of Arctic air arrives on its heels Monday into Monday afternoon, sending another surge of cold Arctic air back into the region. Below normal temperatures are expected to linger through the middle of next week, with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s, or ~1 to 1.5 standard deviations below normal for mid-January. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 445 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period. A strong cold front will push offshore by sunrise, with clouds to clear from W to E, becoming mainly clear by mid-morning through the rest of the period. Winds veer around to the W then WNW 10-15 kt along the coast with gusts 20-25 kt behind a strong cold front later this morning, continuing through this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers Sat morning, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts the region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Friday morning as winds become westerly behind a strong cold front today. - Elevated SW winds and likely SCA conditions return Friday night into Saturday morning. - Low water conditions remain possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay, York/James Rivers, and along the coast of the Atlantic waters during low tide Friday night into Saturday. A strong cold front is approaching the waters this morning. As of 2 AM, winds remain SW 10-20 kt. However, the wind direction will abruptly shift to the W over the next few hours as the front pushes through. Wind speeds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through most of today. While sporadic higher gusts are possible along the immediate frontal passage this morning, prevailing winds remain sub-Gale for all waters through the evening. Stronger cold advection arrives tonight and very efficient mixing will likely lead to a period of frequent ~35 kt gusts on the northern coastal waters. Elsewhere, wind gusts should stay closer to 30 kt, but cannot rule out occasional 35 kt gusts (best chance for this would be in the Chesapeake Bay N of Windmill Pt). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through Friday morning, with Gale Warnings now in effect from 00z-12z Fri (7 PM today-7 AM Fri) for the ocean N of Parramore Island. The lull in the winds looks brief Friday as high pressure quickly offshore and a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow for winds to shift back to the SW by Friday afternoon and another round of SCA conditions are likely Friday evening and overnight as a belt of stronger winds aloft overspread the area. Winds remain elevated into Saturday morning before subsiding to sub-SCA levels by the afternoon hours. There is decent confidence in a wind shift to the N-NW Saturday night as a cold front drops through, but uncertainty quickly increases by Sunday-Monday as low pressure may develop and ride along the remnant frontal boundary. A closer/stronger low would lead to higher winds while a weaker/suppressed system would have weaker winds. At this time, at least marginal SCAs appear probable. Will continue to monitor. Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range through Friday morning with some potential for 6 ft seas out 20 nm on the ocean tonight. Seas then briefly subside to 2-3 ft Friday before increasing again to 3-5 ft Friday night and Saturday morning with the SW wind increase. Low water conditions are still possible Friday night into Saturday in the lower Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers, and near the coast of the Atlantic waters. While guidance has trended a bit higher with the water levels, there is still potential for -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW readings and resultant Low Water Advisories. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ |
| #1257216 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 432 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -A strong cold front will blast through the Keys today. This will bring a period of windy conditions for the Florida Keys beginning this morning, then continuing into Friday morning. -Elevated rain chances will continue through this morning ahead of the cold front. There is also the potential for a few thunderstorms through this morning. -In the wake of the front, expect considerably cooler and drier conditions for late week through the weekend. -Another reinforcing front is expected to move through the area sometime on Sunday or Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 CIMSS products show a deep mean layer mid-latitude trough across the eastern United States early this morning. At the surface, a cold front stretches from Pennsylvania southward to the Florida Panhandle and then extends southwestward through the Gulf and into Mexico. This front is the main character in this story for today. Marine platforms were mostly light to gentle breezes for much of the night, however, in the past hour the breezes have been increasing. Most observation sites are now observing southwest to west breezes of 10 to 15 knots. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products show estimated PWAT values of 1.3 inches across the northern part of the Keys to 1.6 inches across the Straits of Florida to Andros Island. KBYX radar has remained active all night as a result. Most of the activity has remained across the offshore waters to the south of the Chain. However, in the last couple hours some showers developed across the Middle and Upper Keys bringing some quick light showers. MRMS data estimates rainfall amounts of a trace to a tenth of an inch over the last 3 hours. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows most of the cloud cover currently across eastern portions of the area with largely cloud free conditions for the western areas. The cloud cover associated with the front still remains outside the Keys Gulf waters for the time being. Temperatures along the Island Chain vary from the mid 60s to the lower 70s and dew points are in the mid 60s. .FORECAST... The aforementioned cold front will be the main theme for today. The strong front will continue to move rapidly southeastward swinging through the Keys later this morning into the early afternoon. Breezes will increase dramatically today with near 30 knots expected across the marine area and 25 to 30 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph, potentially 45 mph along the Island Chain. The strongest gusts will most likely be associated with any showers. Moisture will remain plentiful across the Keys this morning. Therefore, PoPs were further increased today to 70%. All the ingredients are lined up today to support decent coverage of showers and even thunderstorms as the front moves through. We have the instability, the cold front, some upper level support, and moisture. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage this morning as it approaches. The most likely timing for the showers and thunderstorms looks to be from 15/13-14z through 15/18-19z. Breezes will initially be out of the southwest to west this morning before shifting to the northwest and peaking this afternoon and evening. Breezes then gradually slacken overnight and shift to the north to northeast by Friday morning. Much drier air will move in behind the front leading to nil rain chances for tonight. However, temperatures and humidity are expected to tumble tonight. Overnight lows are expected to be lower to mid 50s with mid to upper 40s across the Upper Keys with daytime highs Friday only managing to reach the mid 60s. In the wake of the front, high pressure will slide across the northern Gulf leading to rapidly slackening breezes as the gradient collapses for Friday afternoon. The high continues to move out into the western North Atlantic Friday night through the weekend. This will shift breezes to the northeast to east. The forecast remains dry for Friday, though slightly increasing low level moisture might be enough to touch off a few showers Friday night through Saturday night. Slight chance PoPs have been added to the forecast during this timeframe as a result. Confidence continues to increase for another front to press through the Keys sometime Sunday/Sunday night. This will result in another shot of cooler air, breezy to windy conditions, and a dip in humidity. In the wake of this front, a rather large high pressure system is expected to move across the eastern United States which is expected to keep the breezes elevated for a few days early next week. Moisture will remain scarce with most of the shower activity, if any, remaining across the Straits. It is not until the middle of next week when the moisture might be able to creep just far enough north to affect the Island Chain. Temperatures and dew points will also slowly moderate through the week. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters today. From synopsis, a strong cold front will push through the Keys marine zones today. Breezes will become strong, with frequent near gale gusts late this morning through early this evening. High pressure will quickly slide eastward across the Southeast behind the front, supporting rapidly slackening breezes for Friday through Saturday clocking around to the northeast. The next cold front is progged to push through the Florida Keys coastal waters on Sunday or Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Winds will sharply freshen out of the west to northwest this morning as a cold front sweeps through the Keys. A line of showers has already formed ahead of the front and is forecast to slide across the island chain later this morning. Showers may also form ahead of this line as breezes increase over the next few hours. Thus have included a estimated arrival time for said line in both TAFs and will amend as timing and possible impacts become more clear. Near surface winds will start generally out of the southwest to west at near 10 knots before veering and freshening sharply to 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts to 25 to 30 knots by later this afternoon. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, In 1964, the daily record low temperature of 47F was recorded in Key West. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 55 64 63 / 70 0 0 10 Marathon 74 53 65 63 / 70 0 0 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1257215 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 419 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers spreading across SoFlo through the late morning hours with a cold front passage. - Low temperatures after a frontal passage with early Friday morning reaching lower 30s around the Lake region, and upper 30s to mid 40s around the metro areas. Apparent temperatures could drop into the mid 20s around the lake, with mid 30s to lower 40s possible for coastal metro areas. - Hazardous marine conditions today with strong west- northwest winds between 25-30kts. This breezy westerly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents and high surf across Collier County beaches beginning this morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Models remain in good agreement with the passage of a strong frontal boundary today, with the bulk of the showers ahead of the front expected during the mid-late morning hours. CAM/NBM max POPs remain in the 50-60 percent range as the boundary pushes across the area. Model PWATs remain around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1", which will translate in scattered to numerous showers through the late morning hours with moderate rainfall rates expected. In terms of convection, the combination of very poor CAPE/MUCAPE values and the prevailing cloud cover restraining daytime heating will result in little dynamic support for thunderstorm activity. Any isolated storm that develops will likely be near the coastline. The main concerns will begin this afternoon and evening as winds behind the FROPA shift NW will mark the onset of robust cold air advection. Coldest temperatures across SoFLo on Friday morning will drop into freezing values (30-31F) over Glades and portions of Hendry counties. A Freeze Warning has been issued for those areas, for which residents should take protective actions like bringing sensitive plants indoors, shelter pets, and ensure wearing warm clothing if going outside. Another cold related issue will be wind chills with the northerly flow. Latest ensemble/global guidance show appT values in the mid- upper 20s for northern/interior areas of SoFlo, and up to upper 30s over the coastal metro areas. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has also been issued for much of the rest of SoFlo, except the metro areas closest to the coastlines. But even residents in those areas should wear warm clothing if going outside early in the morning. Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Broad high pressure expands across the region with temperatures gradually warming up a bit on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Persisting subsidence will keep near zero chances of rain across SoFlo, with maybe a few coastal showers over the Atlantic waters during Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal/warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. By Sunday, latest global solutions remain on track showing the onset of another cool down period as a another frontal boundary reaches the area. No significant rain impacts are anticipated as this should be a relatively dry FROPA during the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may drop into the 30s and 40s, with Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. High pressure returns in the wake of the front with prevailing N/NE winds and near zero chances of rain through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions will begin deteriorating after 09-10Z ahead of a frontal passage. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with showers will require tempos and ammds through around 15-16Z as the area of rain associated with the front clears the area. By this afternoon, winds will veer NW and NNW by this evening, with gusts in the 25-30kt range possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Winds shift to the WNW then NW by late this afternoon with a cold front passage across the area. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all coastal waters and the Lake with wind speeds up to 25- 30kt will be possible. Scattered to numerous showers will also accompany the frontal passage with most rain activity expected during the morning hours. Conditions should begin to quickly subside Friday morning. && .BEACHES... Issued at 409 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 A strong northerly wind surge will result in a high risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions across the Gulf beaches later today. The high risk is likely to last into mid- week as winds shift to an east-northeast direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 44 69 59 / 70 0 0 0 West Kendall 76 39 69 53 / 6g the afternoon. 0 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 43 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Homestead 76 43 69 58 / 60 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 43 68 59 / 70 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 42 69 57 / 70 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 72 41 68 57 / 70 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 42 69 58 / 70 0 0 0 Naples 71 40 66 51 / 80 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063- 066>075-172. Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ063-066. High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069. High Surf Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1257214 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 417 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended warmer with a slower cold front today. Highs may reach the upper 40s for most of the region with perhaps a few 50 degree readings in the I-95 corridor. This has reduced the threat for daytime snow squalls but there is still a chance for rain or even graupel showers during the afternoon. A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Friday night into Saturday mainly northwest of I-95. There is the potential for a plowable snowfall across parts of the region Sunday into Sunday night night if coastal low pressure tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. High confidence in a shot of arctic air later Monday into Wednesday with bitterly cold wind chills possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably mild today with a few rain and elevation snow showers possible. Turning windy and much colder tonight and Friday. - A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Fri night into Sat with temps rising above freezing outside the highest terrain by afternoon. Bulk of the snow likely northwest of I-95. - Coastal storm may bring a plowable snow to parts of the region Sun into Sun night if it tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. - Shot of arctic air follows later Mon into Wed with bitterly cold wind chills and highs temps held between 15 and 25 Tue into Wed. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray/gale force wind gusts across our waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably mild today with a few rain and elevation snow showers possible. Turning windy and much colder tonight and Friday. Unseasonably mild today with high temps generally between 45 and 50...but the big story will be much colder and windy weather working into the region tonight and Friday. Winds ramp up behind the front with an increasing pressure gradient as low pressure deepens to the north. Northwest winds at 850mb increase to 40 to 50 kts as low level lapse rates increase to 7.5-9 C/km. This will translate to a gusty day with wind gusts steadily increasing through the afternoon and overnight peaking around 30-40 mph. Mid level temperature change will be somewhat dramatic through the afternoon with 850 mb temps falling from +1C this morning to -14C tonight. Lows Friday morning will be 15 to 20F colder than the night previous, in the teens. However, the bigger story will be the frigid wind chill values, in the -5 to +10F range for most location. It will be a brief shot of arctic air, though, with a warmer airmass right behind it. Generally dry weather prevails today...but a few brief rain showers/elevations snow showers possible. May even see some graupel with instability and cold temps aloft. Strong/cold westerly flow may allow for lake effect moisture to result in a few brief flurries/snow showers tonight with perhaps even a localized snow squall. Overall though the main story will be the much colder temps. KEY MESSAGE 2...A dusting to 2" of snow possible very late Fri night into Sat with temps rising above freezing outside the highest terrain by afternoon. Bulk of the snow likely northwest of I-95. A ridge of high pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast moves east and further away from the region Fri night into Sat. In response...shortwave energy lifts northeast across western and northern New England along with a few weak waves of low pressure. In response...a modest southwest LLJ will develop very late Fri night into Sat and over run the cold dome at the surface. The result will be snow developing after midnight and particularly toward daybreak across interior southern New England continuing at times on Sat. A coating to 2" of snow is possible northwest of I-95 which may result in some slippery travel across the interior into Sat morning. However...southerly flow will result in temps rising above freezing across all locations except the highest terrain by Sat afternoon. So while snow may still be in the air Sat afternoon...most treated roadways will just be wet by that time. The deeper forcing and moisture is focused across the interior...but may see a brief period of light snow near and even southeast of I-95. Regardless...southerly winds will be advecting warmer air into eastern MA/RI with temps rising into the upper 30s and lower 40s Sat afternoon. So really no concerns in this region and any light snow that reaches into this region would change to light rain by afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 3...Coastal storm may bring a plowable snow to parts of the region Sun into Sun night if it tracks close enough to the coast...but that remains uncertain. There continues to be a large spread in the track/intensity and timing of coastal low pressure for the latter half of the weekend. The guidance continues to struggle with several pieces of northern stream energy along with their timing and amplitude. This will ultimately determine whether or not phasing can occur with southern stream energy. This would allow upper flow to become more amplified resulting in low pressure system tracking closer to the coast with a more significant impact. Lack of phasing would allow for the low to track further east with a more limited impact. Given this is still a day 4 forecast...all options still remain on the table. The 00z GFS/CMC models continue to have a track closer to the coast potentially bringing a plowable snow to parts of the region. Meanwhile...the 00z ECMWF/UKMET have a track further east with more of a light glancing blow to eastern New England. There also remains quite the spread on the individual ensemble members of each model...showing that we need to keep all options on the table at this point. We did want to point out that the EPS AI ensembles are much closer to the coast with a more significant impact than the regular EPS ensembles. Certainly could be a signal that the EC may correct further west...but again too early to lock in any potential outcomes. KEY MESSAGE 4...Shot of arctic air follows later Mon into Wed with bitterly cold wind chills and highs temps held between 15 and 25 Tue into Wed. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray/gale force wind gusts across our waters. Regardless of what happens Sun into Sun night...long range ensembles are in very good agreement on upper level ridging across western North America with a deep trough across the eastern states for the first half of next week. An arctic cold front crosses the region Mon with bitterly cold air working into the region in the later Mon to Wed time frame. 850T will likely drop into the -20C to -24C for a time. This should result in high temps only in the 15 to 25 degree range Tue and Wed. Lows should drop into the 0 to 10 degree range with perhaps some below zero readings. Wind Chills below zero with moderate freezing spray and gale force wind gusts across our waters. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Rest of Tonight...Moderate confidence in timing of IFR conditions. MVFR and IFR conditions continue through the overnight hours. A few showers tonight thru 09z ending from W to E. S winds generally 10 knots or less. Thursday...High confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions Thursday morning becoming VFR by the afternoon. Dry on the whole but a few spot rain/snow showers are possible, even a localized snow squall across the interior. SW winds shifting to the W later in the day with gusts increasing to between 20 and 30 knots. Thursday night...Moderate confidence. VFR. Gusty W winds continue overnight gusting 20 to 30 kts. A few quick hitting snow showers may impact terminals in the first half of the night, but confidence in placement and timing of these is low. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN, chance RA. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Friday...High Confidence. A strong cold front crosses the region today allowing for winds to pick back up as the day wears along with SW winds shifting more to the W with 25 to 30 knot gusts. Strong CAA will result in W 35-40 knot wind gusts tonight into Friday with light freezing spray. Seas across the southern waters will build to between 6 and 11 feet by early Friday. Outlook /Friday night through Monday/... Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of snow. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1257213 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 359 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers move through the region through later this morning, with continued low thunderstorm chances overall. - Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions today through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve. - A prolonged and significant cooldown begins today. While Friday morning will be the coldest, another front moving through on Sunday will bring a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps early next week. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Highly amplified pattern aloft this morning featuring a strong W CONUS ridge that extends into Alaska and deepening E CONUS trough downstream will favor the coldest air of the season as a polar air mass spills south out of Canada and across the central/eastern U.S. and into the FL peninsula. At the surface, a cold front currently approaching the peninsula represents the leading edge of the cold air, advecting southward as the trailing Canadian surface high drops across the Plains into the Deep South. A pre- frontal band of showers, some locally moderate to heavy, spreads from the Nature Coast southward across WCFL and into SWFL. Showers will taper off from north to south across the area later this morning, with lingering SWFL showers clearing by early afternoon while breezy to gusty N/NW winds develop across the area. High pressure then moves across the SE U.S. through Friday, setting the stage for freezing to near-freezing temps for the majority of the area on Friday morning. A series of reinforcing cold fronts move across the area this weekend into early next week in association with shortwave disturbances rotating around the base of the E CONUS trough, precluding any sustained warming trend across the area through mid week, while overall conditions remain dry aside from a chance of showers on Sunday. Primary feature of note through the forecast period remains hazardous and potentially dangerous cold temps and wind chills. For Friday morning, a Freeze Warning is in effect for all forecast zones except for central and southern coastal locations along with inland portions of Sarasota and Lee counties, where temps are currently expected to remain a few degrees above freezing. All forecast zones are under a Cold Weather Advisory for the same period, as wind chills will drop below 35 degrees across WC/SWFL, and below 25 degrees across the Nature Coast. Not as cold on Saturday morning with freezing temps confined to the Nature Coast, and on Sunday morning when area lows remain above freezing. Colder again on Monday morning with sub-freezing temps likely from the Nature Coast into WC/SWFL, followed by slowly moderating temps over the next few mornings through mid week. High temps generally remain in the 50s and 60s through the period, with a brief respite of lower 70s for central and southern locations on Saturday before the early week cooldown, then warming back into the 70s mid to late week next week as the cool air mass moderates more substantially. Morning lows drop into the 20s and 30s on Friday and again on Monday, and remain mostly in the 30s and 40s otherwise, with some lower 50s south of I-4 on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Rain shield with embedded heavier showers currently over offshore waters approaching terminals will bring mainly MVFR conditions across terminals with reduced cigs/vsbys through the remainder of tonight into Thursday morning. Associated cold front moves across area during the morning with winds shifting NW`ly and becoming gusty late morning through the afternoon as precip tapers off while cigs linger a bit longer into the afternoon before lifting to VFR, with winds gradually diminishing during the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Poor marine conditions over the next 24 to 36 hours with advisory level winds and seas developing as gusty N/NW flow overspreads the waters as high pressure builds in the wake of a passing cold front this morning. Conditions improve by the weekend, however, a cold front late in the weekend may be accompanied by another round of hazardous marine conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 No Red Flag conditions expected through the period, however, cold dry air masses filtering into the state late this week and again early next week will lead to critical minimum RHs, although winds are currently expected to remain below threshold values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 61 36 60 44 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 68 36 65 48 / 70 0 0 0 GIF 61 33 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 65 36 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 58 24 59 32 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 63 41 60 50 / 50 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1257212 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 452 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 * Passing showers will continue to affect the easter sections of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands during the morning hours. Therefore, ponding of water over roads are possible. * From Friday into early Saturday, moisture will increase, and the frequency of showers is still expected to increase. Especially across eastern sections, including the San Juan metro area. * There is a moderate risk of rip currents through tomorrow, increasing to high on Saturday into Sunday for the north coast of Puerto Rico and Culebra. && .Short Term(Today through Saturday)... Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 Showers affected eastern Puerto Rico this evening, initially isolated, but increased in coverage after midnight. Radar-estimated rainfall since around 8 PM showed isolated amounts up to one-half inch across parts of eastern Puerto Rico. Patches of mid- to high- level clouds were observed, with overall cloudiness increasing alongside the shower activity. Overnight low temperatures remained warmer than normal, with readings in the low 60s across higher elevations, the upper 70s across lower elevations, and even some low 80s across coastal areas and nearby buoys. Winds were light and variable over land, while a general moderate ESE flow persisted across the regional waters. Today will feature moderate ESE trade winds veering to the SE as the surface high shifts farther away from the region, allowing a warmer air mass to remain in place. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s across many coastal and urban areas. In the meantime, moisture will gradually increase as the mid-level ridge lifts northeastward and the inversion weakens. These conditions will support scattered showers, with morning activity continuing over exposed east to southeast sections. During the afternoon, showers are expected to develop, with focused across northern and northwestern Puerto Rico, as well as downwind of the local islands, following the dominant southeasterly flow. Rainfall impacts should remain limited, though brief ponding of water and isolated urban flooding are possible where showers repeat. Conditions will remain relatively quiet tonight, with gentle winds, warm temperatures, and less frequent passing showers, despite increasing moisture. On Friday, wetter-than-normal conditions persist, with light winds in the morning strengthening to a moderate breeze by afternoon. While morning activity remains limited, weak steering flow and abundant moisture will favor slow-moving scattered to locally numerous afternoon showers, mainly across western interior and western Puerto Rico, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms producing lightning and locally heavier downpours. Friday night into Saturday, winds will strengthen further and gradually back from easterly to east-northeasterly, transitioning the pattern toward a more wind-driven regime. On Saturday, fresh to locally strong east-northeasterly winds will support more frequent trade-wind showers, cooler temperatures, and increasing wind-related hazard risks, especially along exposed coastal areas. Overall impacts should remain localized, with brief ponding or isolated flooding, a lightning risk on Friday, and non-thunderstorm wind impacts increasing into Saturday. && .Long Term(Sunday through Thursday)... Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 The inherited forecast remains unchanged. On Sunday morning, winds will remain breezy but are expected to gradually weaken through the day. Sunday will remain the driest day of the long-term period, as precipitable water values decrease to around 1.0 inch, which is below normal for this time of year. This will support relatively stable and seasonable conditions, with passing trade wind showers and limited afternoon convection driven primarily by local effects. Beginning Monday, a transition toward a wetter and more unsettled pattern is expected to develop and persist through much of the workweek. Precipitable water values are forecast to increase to around 1.75 inches, which is above normal for this time of year. From Monday through Wednesday, a subtropical jet streak near 250 mb will enhance upper-level divergence and support the development of an induced surface trough, resulting in higher shower coverage across the forecast area under an easterly to northeasterly low- level wind flow. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures near -7 degrees Celsius during the early part of the workweek will allow any rainfall activity that develops to grow more efficiently in the vertical. This environment will enhance instability and increase the potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. Current guidance suggests that the first part of the workweek, as well as the latter portion of the forecast period, appear to be the wettest, while some variability in rainfall coverage and intensity is expected in between. At this time, each afternoon from early in the workweek carries a limited flood risk, mainly due to the potential for ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. Forecast updates should continue to be monitored as some uncertainty remains particularly by the later part of the workweek. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the forecast period. Periods of -RA/-SHRA will affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ through 15/14Z, with brief MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions possible. After 15/16Z, shower activity is expected to shift inland, mainly impacting TJPS and TJBQ. After 15/22Z, VCSH/SHRA will again affect the USVI terminals and TJSJ. Surface winds will be light and variable early, increasing to 1015 kt from the ESESE between 15/14Z and 15/22Z, then becoming light and variable again thereafter. No significant or prolonged aviation impacts are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 The surface high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through the end of the workweek. By Saturday, strengthening east to northeast winds, and the arrival of a long-period northerly swell will likely result in choppy to rough seas, leading to hazardous marine conditions during the weekend. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 404 AM AST Thu Jan 15 2026 The moderate risk of rip currents along all the northern-exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands will prevail through Friday. Conditions will deteriorate Saturday and Sunday, when energy from a northerly swell moves in and results in breaking waves along all the north and northeast coasts of Puerto Rico, including Culebra. As a result, a high risk of rip current is forecast for the upcoming weekend. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1257211 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 329 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - A significant cooldown is on the way behind today`s cold front, prompting a Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning for much of east central Florida - Showers ending through the morning from west to east as drier air moves across the peninsula - Temperatures rebound briefly on Saturday before another strong cold front arrives Sunday afternoon, producing cold mornings and cool afternoons through at least Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Today-Tonight...The strong cold front, advertised to bring sharply colder air to east central Florida, is on its way into the northern part of the state this morning. To illustrate the temperature difference, as of 2 AM, it was 58 degrees in Melbourne. Tallahassee was 50 degrees and Atlanta, Georgia was 33 degrees. Showers are quickly moving from west to east across the FL Peninsula, though radar indicates that some of this activity is working to overcome residual dry air in the mid levels. With regard to rain chances, this forecast follows closely to the hourly NBM and a blend of CAM guidance, suggesting showers ending around midday. As the front itself pushes south through the area from daybreak onward, northwest winds are expected to increase. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts 20-30 mph are forecast, ushering in cooler, drier air from the north. Highs today in many spots will occur late morning or early in the afternoon before the cooler air starts to filter south in the afternoon. Cloud cover from the morning is forecast to erode north to south after lunchtime as model soundings show rapid drying occurring behind the front. While winds do decrease some this evening into tonight, speeds remain 5-10 mph through early Friday morning (up to 15 mph at the coast). With clear sky conditions and efficient cold air advection, temperatures will plummet after dark into the 30s and 40s. Wind chill values around midnight are likely to approach the freezing mark, particularly near and north of I-4. Before temperatures fall this evening/tonight, be sure to bring pets inside and protect plants and pipes from freezing. A Freeze Warning and Cold Weather Advisory have been issued for most of the area, as a result of forecast lows in the upper 20s to low 30s and wind chills in the 20s before sunrise Friday. Friday-Saturday...Surface high pressure becomes centered over the FL Peninsula Friday, helping to settle wind speeds below 10 mph. As mentioned, Friday morning starts very cold with freezing temperatures in many locations and well-below-freezing wind chills. Before stepping out the door, stay warm by bundling up with extra layers, a hat, and gloves. Despite a full day of sunshine, temperatures Friday afternoon are only forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s areawide. Another cold night is in store Friday night, though there is going to be a bit of a range from north to south. NBM probabilities for temperatures 32 degrees or less are 20-30% across far northwestern Volusia and Lake counties, so we are not anticipating another freeze Saturday morning. 850mb flow from the SSW returns Saturday, helping to warm us up in concert with plenty of sunshine. How about a 70-degree day to thaw things out before more cold arrives Sunday night? If you are looking for the pick day to get outdoors, Saturday is that day. Lows Saturday night remain cool but are about 5 to 10 degrees warmer compared to Friday night. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out south of the Cape late Saturday night into Sunday morning, though most activity will remain offshore. Sunday-Wednesday...500mb troughing digs south Sunday morning with formidable energy rounding the base of the trough over central Florida Sunday afternoon. Models favor a band of showers approaching the northwest corner of our area from midday through mid afternoon. However, dry air rushing south behind another strong cold front undercuts precipitation. Thus, only a 15-20% chance of rain is forecast for now, generally Orlando to Cape Canaveral and points north. Northwest winds are also expected to pick back up along and behind the front Sunday afternoon, gusting 20-25 mph. The latest guidance has trended temperatures down, suggesting a repeat of both freezing temperatures and sub-30 degree wind chills again Monday morning. NBM and LREF probabilities of 32 degrees or lower are already 30-60% or higher from south to north over portions of the interior. Overall, Monday looks cold with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. An expansive area of high pressure settles over the central CONUS Tuesday, shifting south and east by midweek. Locally, another cold start to the day is anticipated Tuesday with breezy north winds sending wind chills back into the upper 20s and low 30s. Cold Weather Advisories are likely Monday and possible again Tuesday morning if these trends in wind and temperature guidance persist. High pressure sticks around through Wednesday, and temperatures look to recover by then, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s. Looking ahead, temperatures close to normal (if not slightly above normal) return Thursday, perhaps lingering through late week or the early part of next weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Marine conditions quickly turn hazardous this morning as a cold front passes over the local waters. Northwest winds are forecast to increase, reaching 20-25 kt by midday and 25-30 kt over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. Occasional gusts to gale force cannot be ruled out over the offshore waters. Small Craft Advisories begin early this morning in the offshore marine legs, expanding to include all of the local Atlantic by 10 AM EST. Seas respond, building to 4-6 ft nearshore and 6-9 ft offshore this afternoon. At their peak, 10 ft seas are possible in the Gulf Stream tonight into early Friday morning. High pressure builds over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters Friday, helping to quickly settle winds and eventually wave heights. Hazardous boating may linger in the offshore through early afternoon with generally favorable conditions resuming everywhere Friday night into Saturday. Seas Saturday morning fall to 1-3 ft. Another strong cold front is set to move through Sunday into early Monday, producing another episode of gusty northwest winds and hazardous seas to start the next work week. Poor to hazardous conditions resume as early as Sunday morning, spreading southward through the day. Additional Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into at least Monday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Showers forecast across the terminals early this morning as a cold front moves southward across the area. TEMPOs in place for VIS and CIG reductions due to -SHRA, with activity anticipated to diminish by 17Z at all terminals. Breezy and gusty NW winds forecast behind the front, with gusts to 27 knots possible at times. Winds diminish to around 10 knots late tonight, with dry conditions forecast to persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are possible over the next several days. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph today will lead to excellent dispersion, along with lower humidity values working into locations north of I-4. On Friday, lighter winds resume but lower humidity builds south across interior east central Florida. Some moisture returns to the area Saturday before another cold front Sunday into Monday brings drier air and sensitive fire conditions early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 31 59 41 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 60 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 64 34 62 47 / 70 0 0 0 VRB 66 34 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 LEE 57 30 59 39 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 59 32 61 41 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 59 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 66 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347- 647. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1257210 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:06 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 305 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have been removed this morning. Temperatures have been lowered slightly for this afternoon/tonight. Gale Watch was converted to a Gale Warning north of Parramore Island, and converted to a Small Craft Advisory farther south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front crosses the area this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into this evening in the wake of the front, gusting to 30 to 35 mph. 2) Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. 3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. 4) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area early this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into tonight in the wake of the front, with increasingly efficient mixing in CAA allowing winds to gust to 30 to 35 mph. Winds diminishing late tonight into early Friday, as cold high pressure builds to the SSW. Yet another shortwave embedded within the potent northern stream trough is lifting through the mid-Atlantic region this morning. This system and its attendant strong surface cold front will be lifting across the local area in the next few hours. Winds remain SSW over much of the area, but are starting to veer around to the W-NW in the far western portion of the area as of this writing. Radar is mainly dry at this hour, with the parent low a bit farther north than previously modeled into western NY state. As such, while a quick shower or two cannot be ruled out over the northern neck and eastern shore over the next few hours, mainly dry this morning. Temps remain nearly steady until the front crosses into the area. Thereafter, strong CAA post-frontal drives temps down into the upper 30s/lower 40s, with highs likely to be achieved this morning over much of the area. Dewpoints also drop quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits inland during peak mixing. KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. Given diminishing winds, clear sky and the cold, dry airmass building into the region, went a bit below NBM for lows. Look for lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s inland, low to mid 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid teens late tonight. While this is near but just above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, it`s certainly noteworthy given the recent mild temperatures. High pressure moves offshore on Friday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not quite as cold on Saturday ahead of the next Arctic front, with highs ranging from the mid 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. There is a slight chance for some rain showers (some light snow mixing in across the NW half of the area) but moisture is limited as the shortwave is dampening as it crosses the southern Appalachians Sat morning. Turning cold once again Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. Attention then turns to Sunday as a deep trough digs south from the mid-south toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure forms off the SE coast Sunday morning and lifts NE. 00z/15 guidance has mainly continued the trend of the past few cycles, favoring a stronger surface low closer to the coast, along with a slower/less progressive upper pattern. The GFS and its ensembles remain the most bullish, with increasing probabilities of 50-80+% for impactful/accumulating snowfall AOA 1" across most of our area (except immediate NE NC coast), highest across inland sections. The ECMWF and EPS snow probs are lower (40-60%) but have trended towards the stronger low pressure/closer to the coast scenario over the last few cycles, and are accordingly focused across the Hampton Roads area into NE NC. The chance for at least 3" is still quite low...only about 20%...but is again focused primarily over Hampton Roads and the eastern Carolinas. While the exact evolution of the system remains uncertain, a low track near or just offshore, should allow plenty of cold air to be in place ahead of the surface low. At this time, it appears that p-type will be in the form of snow for most, except perhaps some mixed precip possible near the coast depending on how close the low tracks. There are many moving parts to this portion of the forecast, including but not limited to the evolution and orientation of the upper system, the exact track/trend of the attendant surface low, and the presence or absence of an upstream shortwave that, if present, could quicken the upper pattern and shorten the window for potential snows. In short, users are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts over the coming day or two, as the specifics of each of these elements become more evident. KEY MESSAGE 4...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to persist through the first half of next week. Regardless of the exact evolution of the weekend system, another reinforcing shot of Arctic air arrives on its heels Monday into Monday afternoon, sending another surge of cold Arctic air back into the region. Below normal temperatures are expected to linger through the middle of next week, with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s, or ~1 to 1.5 standard deviations below normal for mid-January. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period. Clouds clear from W to E early this morning, with mainly clear conditions from mid morning through the rest of the period. A low chance for MVFR CIGs remains possible across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore between 9-12z as the cold front crosses through. However, confidence remains too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time. SW winds around 10 kt early this morning veer around to the W then WNW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt behind a strong cold front later this morning, continuing through this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers Sat morning, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts the region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Friday morning as winds become westerly behind a strong cold front today. - Elevated SW winds and likely SCA conditions return Friday night into Saturday morning. - Low water conditions remain possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay, York/James Rivers, and along the coast of the Atlantic waters during low tide Friday night into Saturday. A strong cold front is approaching the waters this morning. As of 2 AM, winds remain SW 10-20 kt. However, the wind direction will abruptly shift to the W over the next few hours as the front pushes through. Wind speeds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through most of today. While sporadic higher gusts are possible along the immediate frontal passage this morning, prevailing winds remain sub-Gale for all waters through the evening. Stronger cold advection arrives tonight and very efficient mixing will likely lead to a period of frequent ~35 kt gusts on the northern coastal waters. Elsewhere, wind gusts should stay closer to 30 kt, but cannot rule out occasional 35 kt gusts (best chance for this would be in the Chesapeake Bay N of Windmill Pt). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through Friday morning, with Gale Warnings now in effect from 00z-12z Fri (7 PM today-7 AM Fri) for the ocean N of Parramore Island. The lull in the winds looks brief Friday as high pressure quickly offshore and a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow for winds to shift back to the SW by Friday afternoon and another round of SCA conditions are likely Friday evening and overnight as a belt of stronger winds aloft overspread the area. Winds remain elevated into Saturday morning before subsiding to sub-SCA levels by the afternoon hours. There is decent confidence in a wind shift to the N-NW Saturday night as a cold front drops through, but uncertainty quickly increases by Sunday-Monday as low pressure may develop and ride along the remnant frontal boundary. A closer/stronger low would lead to higher winds while a weaker/suppressed system would have weaker winds. At this time, at least marginal SCAs appear probable. Will continue to monitor. Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range through Friday morning with some potential for 6 ft seas out 20 nm on the ocean tonight. Seas then briefly subside to 2-3 ft Friday before increasing again to 3-5 ft Friday night and Saturday morning with the SW wind increase. Low water conditions are still possible Friday night into Saturday in the lower Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers, and near the coast of the Atlantic waters. While guidance has trended a bit higher with the water levels, there is still potential for -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW readings and resultant Low Water Advisories. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ |
| #1257209 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 259 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Cold and dry today behind a cold front. Gale Warnings issued for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet for strong SW winds early this morning and strong NW winds which will develop this evening through most of tonight. Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry mix/snow Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Arctic air returns to ENC and wind chills drop to 10-15 degrees early tomorrow morning behind a strong cold front. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. 2) Increasing chances (but still low confidence) for wintry mix/snow Sunday. 3) MARINE: Gale conditions to develop across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet this evening through tonight, while strong Small Craft conditions develop elsewhere. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will move through ENC later this morning with an Arctic airmass building in behind it today. Temperatures will fall into the 30s by daybreak and will struggle to warm much past the low 40s this afternoon. Increasing NW winds will make it feel like the 20s to low 30s for most of the day. Tonight, CAA continues with temps falling into the upper teens to low 20s overnight, and wind chills will range from 10-15 degrees after midnight through about 8-9 am Friday. A Cold Weather Advisory may need to be issued later today, but confidence wasn`t high enough at this juncture to issue. KEY MESSAGE 2... A potentially favorable upper air pattern for winter weather will develop this weekend with a very deep and cold upper level trough reaching down to the GOA. As this trough pivots eastward Saturday into Sunday, a surface low is expected to form along a surface boundary off the SE coast, and deepen as it moves offshore Sunday. Exactly how far south (of ENC) this front reaches, where the low forms along the front, and how strong the low becomes are the main questions at this time frame. If the low forms too close to the coast not enough cold air will be in place for any wintry precip except for across the northern coastal plain, while a solution farther offshore would allow for sufficient cold air to change rain to snow across much of ENC. The current forecast favors a colder solution, somewhat similar to the GFS and GEFS, but is well away from the even colder ECMWF and EPS solutions. Other deterministic guidance remains much warmer. Also, precip amounts show a wide range of solutions from as little as 0.1"-0.2", to nearly an inch. We will continue to closely monitor the trends for this system. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast continues to trend more optimistic overall, and now expecting VFR ceilings/visibility through the entire period as a cold front tracks across the region this morning and high pressure builds in behind the departing front tonight. While we generally expect VFR ceilings and vis, could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings generally between 07-13Z this morning with the greatest risk of seeing sub-VFR conditions along the OBX this morning. TAF terminals could also potentially go down for 2-3 hours before quickly returning to VFR conditions. Given low probability (<20%) have just left a SCT deck at 2.5 kft at all TAF terminals between 07-13Z. Once the front pushes offshore, expect clear skies across the region into Fri morning. Behind the front, breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts to 20-25 kt possible especially across the coastal plain mid morning Thurs through Thurs evening before winds gradually begin to ease. Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions Fri and Sat. No changes to Sun as we continue to monitor for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight categories Sun, with a return to VFR conditions likely on Mon. && .MARINE... Gale conditions have developed under SW winds across the warmer nearshore waters south of Oregon Inlet this morning, and are expected to continue until the cold front crosses through the area. Thereafter, a brief lull is anticipated when winds will dip down to 20-25 kts, until winds restrengthen out of the NW this evening to 25-30 kts, with gusts to 35 kts. Marginal Small craft conditions will continue across most of the other marine areas this morning ahead of the cold front. Stronger winds behind the front this evening through tonight will bring Small Craft conditions to all the remaining waters, and there could be some Gale Force gusts across the Pamlico Sound and nearshore waters north of Oregon Inlet. Seas will be 5-7 ft through tonight, and then subside to below 6 ft by mid tomorrow morning. Outlook: After a brief improvement Friday, Small Craft conditions will likely redevelop Saturday ahead of a cold front, and then again late Sunday behind the front. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ135-150. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ136-137. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Friday for AMZ152-154-156-158. && $$ |
| #1257208 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 149 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Wind chills fall into the teens to low 20s by sunrise and a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9am. Very cold temperatures are expected again tonight. - Gusty conditions are expected through this morning area-wide. Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft today with gale conditions over the offshore Gulf waters through mid-morning. - There has been an increasing trend in the probability of wintry precipitation for a portion of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 The area begins to dry out overnight as the cold rain showers finally exited our Florida panhandle counties just before midnight. Buckle up because it`s only downhill from here (speaking only about the temperatures) as we quickly take a nose dive into the mid to upper 20s across inland counties with 30s across the coastal counties by sunrise. Northerly winds will remain gusty overnight and into the morning hours as the pressure gradient tightens between the exiting cold front and approaching surface high. Given these gusty conditions, temperatures will feel much colder with a wind chill in the teens across inland counties and low to mid 20s across the coastal counties in the pre-dawn hours this morning. These apparent temperatures are what prompted a Cold Weather Advisory which continues through 9am. Daytime temperatures won`t be much better with highs only reaching into the 40s for most spots today. The aforementioned surface high slides east through the day and moves overhead as we roll into the overnight hours. While this will lead to even colder temperatures by sunrise on Friday, it also means that the winds will be light, so the wind chill will not be as big of an factor and thus we will not need a Cold Weather Advisory for Friday morning. The roller coaster of weather and temperatures continues as we roll into Friday. The surface high slides further to our east and winds turn southerly allowing temperatures to briefly rebound into the 60s. Soak up the mild temperatures and weather while you can on Friday because it doesn`t last long. Rain showers are possible late Friday night into early Saturday ahead of yet another cold front. Moisture return ahead of the front isn`t overwhelmingly high with PWATs hovering around 0.6-0.8 inches overnight. Any precipitation that does fall will be in the form of cold rain - nothing wintry with this round of precipitation. Saturday currently looks to be dry in the wake of the front for much of the area. That said, there are some signs in the guidance that the front may not fully push across the area and may stay draped from southwest to northeast across the Gulf waters just to our south. Temperatures will still manage to rise into the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday. All eyes turn to the Saturday night into Sunday morning timeframe. Saturday night is NOT an easy forecast. The secondary front comes crashing into the area and with it comes the potential for precipitation. A LOT of key components need to lock in place for us to get measurable snow across our area and while there are some favorable conditions (ample lift and cold air), there are also a few components that we are missing/watching closely. Precipitation will begin as rain on Saturday night because, as you will recall, temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s ahead of this front and it will take some time for those temperatures to plunge into the 20s and 30s overnight. From there, there are two general scenarios that could play out (there are more than two, but these seem like our best options). Scenario A - A brief round of rain showers ahead of the cold temperatures as the precipitation shield outruns the incoming cold. Scenario B - The cold temperatures come crashing into the area overnight alongside the precipitation shield leading to snow. I could see either scenario happening and while the deterministic guidance is certainly leaning heavily toward the second scenario, I wouldn`t discount the first scenario quite yet. We`ll have a better handle on snow versus rain once the high- resolution model guidance starts to come in. *IF* and that`s a big if, snow does fall in our area overnight Saturday into early Sunday, the eastern half of our area (south- central Alabama and interior northwest Florida) have the best chance for accumulations. There`s a big caveat here because, again, the high temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s during the day on Saturday, so there`s a decent chance that any snow that falls will struggle (at first) to accumulate given that prior warmth. The surface wet bulb may also be too warm for significant snowfall accumulation (note that a few degrees will mean all the difference in the world here). Now that the caveats and scenarios are out of the way, it`s worth mentioning that the probabilities for accumulating snow (anything greater than 0.01 inches) have jumped significantly in comparison to last nights guidance - eyebrow raising for sure. The probability of seeing a trace or more of snow on last night`s runs hovered around 10-15% across a portion of the area...and on tonight`s runs, we`re now looking at around 40% probability of a trace of snow across the area. While we currently have accumulating snowfall in our forecast, it`s generally less than an inch and that amount *should be taken with a grain of salt*. It`s very difficult to narrow down favorable locations and timing for wintry precipitation this far out in time, let alone accumulation...and this assumes we even get snow and the precipitation shield doesn`t play tricks on us and decides to outrun the bitter cold air. I could write a novel on all the scenarios and how this could or could not pan out, but for the sake of time, I`ll leave you with this - it might snow, it might not. Please keep an eye out for our upcoming forecasts as we continue to refine what we know and what we don`t know regarding this potential event. The area dries out on Sunday and temperatures rebound into the 40s and 50s late in the weekend through the middle of next week. Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through for our Alabama beaches with a brief bump to a MODERATE risk across the Florida panhandle beaches Friday night. 07/mb && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period as light rain showers exit our area. The back edge of the cloud shield continues to nudge into our area with clearing skies area-wide by pre-dawn. Northerly winds will steadily increase overnight with gusts to 25-30 kts throughout much of the morning. Winds slowly begin to relax by late afternoon. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 139 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Offshore flow increases through the morning behind a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected continue through much of the day with gale conditions over the offshore waters through mid-morning. Offshore flow gradually decreases this afternoon through the overnight. A light onshore flow develops on Friday before turning northwesterly Saturday morning behind the next cold front. 07/mb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 50 30 66 46 / 0 0 0 20 Pensacola 49 33 63 51 / 0 0 0 20 Destin 50 34 62 52 / 0 0 0 20 Evergreen 47 23 64 41 / 0 0 0 20 Waynesboro 47 26 63 38 / 0 0 0 30 Camden 43 24 60 40 / 0 0 0 30 Crestview 48 22 63 44 / 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ067-075- 076-078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ650-655. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1257207 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Rain chances have been removed this morning. Temperatures have been lowered slightly for this afternoon/tonight. Gale Watch was converted to a Gale Warning north of Parramore Island, and converted to a Small Craft Advisory farther south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front crosses the area this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into this evening in the wake of the front, gusting to 30 to 35 mph. 2) Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Much colder tonight, with wind chill values in the teens forecast. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. 3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. 4) Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to continue through the first half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 AM EST Thursday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area early this morning. W to NW winds become gusty today into tonight in the wake of the front, with increasingly efficient mixing in CAA allowing winds to gust to 30 to 35 mph. Winds diminishing late tonight into early Friday, as cold high pressure builds to the SSW. Yet another shortwave embedded within the potent northern stream trough is lifting through the mid-Atlantic region this morning. This system and its attendant strong surface cold front will be lifting across the local area in the next few hours. Winds remain SSW over much of the area, but are starting to veer around to the W-NW in the far western portion of the area as of this writing. Radar is mainly dry at this hour, with the parent low a bit farther north than previously modeled into western NY state. As such, while a quick shower or two cannot be ruled out over the northern neck and eastern shore over the next few hours, mainly dry this morning. Temps remain nearly steady until the front crosses into the area. Thereafter, strong CAA post-frontal drives temps down into the upper 30s/lower 40s, with highs likely to be achieved this morning over much of the area. Dewpoints also drop quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits inland during peak mixing. KEY MESSAGE 2... Colder but mainly dry through Friday. Wind chill values in the teens are forecast late tonight. There is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday, mainly across the VA piedmont. Given diminishing winds, clear sky and the cold, dry airmass building into the region, went a bit below NBM for lows. Look for lows tonight in the upper teens to lower 20s inland, low to mid 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid teens late tonight. While this is near but just above Cold Weather Advisory thresholds, it`s certainly noteworthy given the recent mild temperatures. High pressure moves offshore on Friday, but temperatures remain on the chilly side in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not quite as cold on Saturday ahead of the next Arctic front, with highs ranging from the mid 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. There is a slight chance for some rain showers (some light snow mixing in across the NW half of the area) but moisture is limited as the shortwave is dampening as it crosses the southern Appalachians Sat morning. Turning cold once again Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast over the weekend, with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area on Sunday. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. Attention then turns to Sunday as a deep trough digs south from the mid-south toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure forms off the SE coast Sunday morning and lifts NE. 00z/15 guidance has mainly continued the trend of the past few cycles, favoring a stronger surface low closer to the coast, along with a slower/less progressive upper pattern. The GFS and its ensembles remain the most bullish, with increasing probabilities of 50-80+% for impactful/accumulating snowfall AOA 1" across most of our area (except immediate NE NC coast), highest across inland sections. The ECMWF and EPS snow probs are lower (40-60%) but have trended towards the stronger low pressure/closer to the coast scenario over the last few cycles, and are accordingly focused across the Hampton Roads area into NE NC. The chance for at least 3" is still quite low...only about 20%...but is again focused primarily over Hampton Roads and the eastern Carolinas. While the exact evolution of the system remains uncertain, a low track near or just offshore, should allow plenty of cold air to be in place ahead of the surface low. At this time, it appears that p-type will be in the form of snow for most, except perhaps some mixed precip possible near the coast depending on how close the low tracks. There are many moving parts to this portion of the forecast, including but not limited to the evolution and orientation of the upper system, the exact track/trend of the attendant surface low, and the presence or absence of an upstream shortwave that, if present, could quicken the upper pattern and shorten the window for potential snows. In short, users are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts over the coming day or two, as the specifics of each of these elements become more evident. KEY MESSAGE 4...Another surge of Arctic air arrives for early next week, with below normal temperatures to persist through the first half of next week. Regardless of the exact evolution of the weekend system, another reinforcing shot of Arctic air arrives on its heels Monday into Monday afternoon, sending another surge of cold Arctic air back into the region. Below normal temperatures are expected to linger through the middle of next week, with lows in the teens and 20s and highs in the 30s, or ~1 to 1.5 standard deviations below normal for mid-January. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period. Clouds clear from W to E early this morning, with mainly clear conditions from mid morning through the rest of the period. A low chance for MVFR CIGs remains possible across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore between 9-12z as the cold front crosses through. However, confidence remains too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time. SW winds around 10 kt early this morning veer around to the W then WNW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt behind a strong cold front later this morning, continuing through this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers Sat morning, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts the region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EST Thursday... Key Messages: - Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Friday morning as winds become westerly behind a strong cold front today. - Elevated SW winds and likely SCA conditions return Friday night into Saturday morning. - Low water conditions remain possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay, York/James Rivers, and along the coast of the Atlantic waters during low tide Friday night into Saturday. A strong cold front is approaching the waters this morning. As of 2 AM, winds remain SW 10-20 kt. However, the wind direction will abruptly shift to the W over the next few hours as the front pushes through. Wind speeds increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt through most of today. While sporadic higher gusts are possible along the immediate frontal passage this morning, prevailing winds remain sub-Gale for all waters through the evening. Stronger cold advection arrives tonight and very efficient mixing will likely lead to a period of frequent ~35 kt gusts on the northern coastal waters. Elsewhere, wind gusts should stay closer to 30 kt, but cannot rule out occasional 35 kt gusts (best chance for this would be in the Chesapeake Bay N of Windmill Pt). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all waters through Friday morning, with Gale Warnings now in effect from 00z-12z Fri (7 PM today-7 AM Fri) for the ocean N of Parramore Island. The lull in the winds looks brief Friday as high pressure quickly offshore and a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. This will allow for winds to shift back to the SW by Friday afternoon and another round of SCA conditions are likely Friday evening and overnight as a belt of stronger winds aloft overspread the area. Winds remain elevated into Saturday morning before subsiding to sub-SCA levels by the afternoon hours. There is decent confidence in a wind shift to the N-NW Saturday night as a cold front drops through, but uncertainty quickly increases by Sunday-Monday as low pressure may develop and ride along the remnant frontal boundary. A closer/stronger low would lead to higher winds while a weaker/suppressed system would have weaker winds. At this time, at least marginal SCAs appear probable. Will continue to monitor. Seas remain in the 3-5 ft range through Friday morning with some potential for 6 ft seas out 20 nm on the ocean tonight. Seas then briefly subside to 2-3 ft Friday before increasing again to 3-5 ft Friday night and Saturday morning with the SW wind increase. Low water conditions are still possible Friday night into Saturday in the lower Chesapeake Bay, James/York Rivers, and near the coast of the Atlantic waters. While guidance has trended a bit higher with the water levels, there is still potential for -1 to -1.5 ft MLLW readings and resultant Low Water Advisories. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>634-638- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ |
| #1257206 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 227 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for early this morning for parts of our area for wind chills below 25 degrees (western Florida Panhandle) or below 20 degrees (southeastern Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia). An additional Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for our Florida counties for tonight into Friday morning. - A Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze (25F or lower) is now in effect for tonight into Friday morning for our entire area outside of the panhandle coast. - Hazardous marine conditions will continue today behind the cold front. Gale warnings continue for the offshore Gulf waters between Apalachicola and the Walton-Okaloosa line with small craft advisories elsewhere. - There is a low to medium chance (30-50%) of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning for much of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and portions of the western Florida Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Cold air advection will dominate today with breezy conditions as high pressure builds into the region. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s today across many locations. This will set up a very cold night for tonight with a hard freeze likely for many locations. The brunt of the cold airmass will arrive tonight as the center of a strong high pressure area settles overhead. The combination of clear skies and calm winds will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions over much of the area. A dry airmass will be in place, and this is expected to lead to plunging temperatures after sunset with overnight lows in the lower 20s across the region away from the immediate coast. A few normally colder locations have a medium chance to dip into the upper teens. The Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze tonight has been upgraded to warning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 For Friday and Saturday, a quick warming trend commences as temperatures warm back into the upper 50s to middle 60s ahead of the next cold front. Another strong cold front will sweep through the region on Saturday night into Sunday. Although moisture return will be limited, the dynamics will be strong, and the latest thinking on snow chances for Sunday is below. The previous discussion expertly laid out the three possible scenarios. Any of the three scenarios below is still plausible. Scenario #1: The precipitation outruns the cold and we`re stuck with an all rain event. The cold is delayed just long enough to limit any snow accumulation potential. Scenario #2: The cold arrives, as advertised, and allows for a sudden change over to snow. If this scenario were to play out, then there would be a 1 to 3 hour window for snow before quickly exiting to the east later on Sunday morning. Scenario #3: The trough is a little more east than forecast and we get a dry frontal passage. That means little to no rain and no snow with just cold temperatures. Based on the 00z model and ensemble trends, scenario #3 is looking less likely. The models are trending a little stronger and farther west with the upper trough, so we will probably not see a simple, dry frontal passage. That would be too easy. That leaves us with either scenario #1 or scenario #2 to deal with. The 01z NBM, which is weighted heavily with the 12z and 18z guidance from Wednesday, has the probability for greater than 1 inch of snow at generally 20% across our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties. Probabilities for greater than 2 inches of snow are about 10% along and north of a line from Geneva county to Albany. This is a very different scenario than last year`s winter storm for a few reasons. 1) We are not expecting any freezing rain to occur. 2) Surface temperatures will be marginal for this event if we get any snow at all. 3) Total liquid equivalent precipitation amounts appear to be less than last year`s event. As mentioned in the previous discussion, this is a cold chasing moisture scenario, and usually when cold air is not already in place down here, it`s very hard to get significant winter weather, although not impossible. We`ll continue to monitor the potential the next couple of days and adjust the forecast as necessary. Be sure to remain updated with the latest weather forecast and get your weather information from trusted sources. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 KTLH: Smoke should disperse by 09Z as the cold fropa occurs. As of 05Z, band -RA associated with the cold fropa is moving through ABY/ECP. Brief MVFR restrictions as this band moves eastward. VFR has returned to DHN and expect it to return to the remainder of the terminals (west to east) from 08-11Z. Northwest winds gusting around 20 kts follow the cold front until closer to 00Z, when they begin to diminish. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Hazardous marine conditions will continue through today behind a strong cold front. Northwesterly wind gusts to gale force are expected for the offshore waters west of Apalachicola with advisory level winds in excess of 20 knots elsewhere. Winds will quickly decrease tonight and Friday as a high center passes directly across the waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the waters on Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 High dispersions are forecast today behind a cold front with strong and gusty transport winds. MinRH will fall to near critical values this afternoon and Friday afternoon across portions of southwestern Georgia and the Florida big bend, although winds will be lighter on Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 No flooding is anticipated for the next several days. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals with the next system over the weekend are currently forecast to be around 0.25 inches or less. However, there is a low to medium chance (30-50%) that the system could trend stronger and bring portions of the area over 0.50" of precipitation. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 48 26 56 42 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 51 32 62 53 / 0 0 0 30 Dothan 46 25 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 46 21 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 48 23 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 54 22 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 49 32 60 52 / 0 0 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ007>011. Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127- 128-134-326-426. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118- 127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>124-126-142. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Friday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ770-772. && $$ |
| #1257205 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 151 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation section has been updated for the 06z TAF issuance. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. A Cold Weather Advisory is then effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM Friday morning. The chance for measurable precipitation has increased for Sunday morning and afternoon, while confidence on any frozen precipitation remains low. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dry and breezy conditions today, with dry conditions persisting into Friday. - 2) Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches. - 3) A developing coastal low on Sunday will bring a possibility of snow mixing with rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and breezy conditions today, with dry conditions persisting into Friday. A strong cold front is timed to reach the GA/SC coast around sunrise, pushing east over the Atlantic through the rest of the day. Near term guidance indicates strong CAA through the day, with H85 temperatures falling to -5 to -10C by this afternoon. The air mass will be further dried by downslope flow in the lee of the southern Appalachians and deep mixing to 4.5 to 5.5 kft. As a result, sfc dewpoints will fall through the daylight hours today, dropping into the single digits to low teens. RH values between 20 to 25 percent should be common. The combination of gusty northwest winds, low RH, and mostly sunny conditions should rapidly dry fine fuels from yesterday`s light rainfall. To highlight the enhanced wildfire risk, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry from 10 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. The center of the dry air mass will build across the Southeast U.S. on Friday. Dewpoints could be as low as the single digits at a few locations mid-day Friday, most areas between 10 to 15 degrees. As temperatures reach around 50 degrees Friday afternoon, RH values may range from the upper teens to around 20 degrees west of I-95, to the mid to upper 20s to the east. Fortunately, the weak pressure gradient should only support winds around 10 mph. No Fire Danger Statements are expected for Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2: Very cold temperatures will occur Friday morning, with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s away from the beaches. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday morning. Surface high pressure over southern LA/ MS Thursday evening will quickly move east and center across northern FL by Friday morning. This will allow winds to go calm across all of coastal GA and SC. PWATs will also be around 0.10" (or daily minimum values) and with skies clear, near ideal radiational cooling conditions are forecast. Expect low temperatures in the upper teens west of I-95 and in the typical colder spots. Along and east of the I-95 corridor to about US Highway 17, expect low temperatures in the lower to mid 20s. Along the beaches, expect low temperatures in the upper 20s (including the Charleston Peninsula). Temperatures will be below freezing for 8 to 12 hours. KEY MESSAGE 3: A developing coastal low on Sunday will bring a possibility of snow mixing with rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. A Rex Block will gradually loose cohesion as a wave situated over the eastern Pacific approaches from the west. In response to this downstream effect, a substantial shortwave trough will dive southeast out of Manitoba and approach the region on Sunday morning. The shortwave will also start to take on a negative tilt as it approaches coastal SC and GA. As this occurs, surface cyclogenesis is forecast to commence off of the South Carolina Coast. Based on the latest guidance, there are 3 main potential scenarios. (1) Coastal low forms along the SC/ NC coastline * Model Support? The latest run of the GFS (deterministic) and GEFS (GFS ensemble) shows a much wetter and slightly warmer solution. This is due to the coastal low forming right along the SC coast. This would support a cold rain across most of coastal SC and GA, with some frozen precipitation across the Midlands and Upstate of SC. * Precipitation Type: mostly plain rain. A small window is possible for a rain/ snow mix well inland. (2) Coastal low forms off of the SC/ NC coastline * Model Support: The latest run of the ECMWF and 18z EPS (ECMWF ensemble) as well as the GEPS (CMC ensemble) support this solution. Here the coastal low is far enough away from the coast to help tap the colder air already in place, while also not to far away to keep the region dry. * Precipitation Type: plain rain along coastal SC and GA. A rain/ snow mix possible away from the beaches with a brief transition to all snow possible inland. (3) Coastal low forms to far east/ northeast of SC/ GA * Model Support: Limited number of model guidance is still showing this solution. The trend away from this solution started Wednesday morning. * Precipitation Type: plain rain, or none. The 14.12z WPC Cluster Analysis also shows ensemble guidance becoming less and less dispersive (e.g., 72% of the EPS being contained in Cluster 1). Taking a look at the WPC Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis webpage reveals that dueling shortwaves (on the western and eastern flanks of the rex block) accounting for most of the variance in model solutions. This type of setup typically has low confidence. The probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) continues to show a 5-10% chance of experiencing minor impacts from winter weather on Sunday. Again, caution should be exercised here as the forecast can change, and will likely change over the next couple days. Behind the cold front, temperatures will again be seasonably cold Monday with low temperatures in the mid 20s. Ahead of the approaching high pressure, winds may remain just strong enough (near 5 knots) where wind chills may dip into the 15 to 20 degrees range, with highest probabilities again for the furthest inland areas. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Friday. A cold front will move across the region early this morning which will veer winds westerly and then northwesterly, becoming gusty. Frequent gusts into the 20-25 knot range are expected beginning after sunrise this morning and continuing through this afternoon. Skies will remain mostly cloudy until dawn, then should clear out by mid morning Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue for KCHS, KJZI and KSAV through late week. Another system could impact the region late this weekend. && .MARINE... The marine zones will remain between a strong cold front pushing across the western Atlantic and high pressure centered over the southern Mississippi River Valley today. This pattern will support gusty northwest winds between 25 to 30 kts and elevated wave heights today into late tonight. Wave heights will build through today, peaking between 3-5 ft across the nearshore with 6-8 ft beyond 20 NM this evening. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all marine zones outside the CHS Harbor today into tonight. The center of a large area of high pressure will arrive on Friday and may linger into Saturday, supporting winds around 10 kts with 1- 2 ft seas. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast Saturday night into Sunday, with gusty winds and building seas, possibly reaching Small Craft Conditions across a portion of the waters. High pressure should settle over the region early next week, allowing conditions to remain less than Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ087-088-099>101-114-115. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for SCZ040-042>044-047. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1257204 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 121 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED...Fire Danger Statement in effect for all of northeast South Carolina from 10 AM this morning through 7 PM this evening. The risk for accumulating snow Saturday night and Sunday has decreased slightly, especially near the coast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fire Danger Statement in Effect for Northeast SC from 10 AM EST - 7 PM EST. 2) Wind Chills in the Upper Teens to Lower 20s Tonight. 3) Mainly light snow accumulation possible Sunday into Sunday night, with black ice and/or dangerously low wind chills possible Sunday night. 4) Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday night and Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Fire Danger Statement in Effect for Northeast SC from 10 AM EST - 7 PM EST. A strong cold front will push through the area this morning. Dry air will quickly infiltrate behind the front. Widespread dewpoints in the teens by midday, sinking further into the single digits by late this afternoon. Relative humidity values won`t have a problem dipping down into the 25-30% range. Meanwhile, an increase in pressure gradient after the frontal passage will make for a blustery day. After a bit of a lull in the morning, winds out of the northwest will kick up to 14-17 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. This combination of dry air and blustery winds, along with the ongoing drought, all of the NWS offices that cover SC decided to issue Fire Danger Statements for the entire state. Conditions are expected to be at their worst from 10 AM EST this morning through 7 PM EST this evening. Very similar conditions persist for southeast NC, though for now, we are holding off on a Fire Danger Statement for this area. Further collaboration will take place among the NC NWS offices and the North Carolina Forest Service (NCFS) later this morning. Either way, despite the cold temperatures, Fire Danger Statement or not, it`s not a good day to burn. Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do, please use extreme caution. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Wind Chills in the Upper Teens to Lower 20s Tonight. Arctic air will bring very cold temperatures today and tonight. High temperatures this afternoon will only get into the low-to-mid 40s. Bigger story is the lows for tonight, which easily dip down into the upper teens to lower 20s. Some of the traditional cold spots in parts of Bladen and Pender Counties may actually dip down into the lower teens or single digits. Winds start coming down by sunset, but still remain gusty through about the first half of the overnight hours. From there, winds may calm in the remaining 5-6 hours before sunrise, which may lead to some good radiational cooling in some of those aforementioned cold spots. This will be worth watching. For days now, we`ve talked about the possibility of a Cold Weather Advisory during this timeframe, which is where the apparent temperatures (i.e., wind chills) dip down to 15 degrees or lower. In previous forecast cycles, this setup looked more favorable, and now it doesn`t so much. We get plenty cold, just not cold enough to meet the criteria. An argument could be made to perhaps issue the advisory for parts of the Cape Fear region, but it`s a bit of a stretch. For now, we`re holding off on the advisory at this time. We`ll see what new data later today will look like. In any case, these freezing temperatures are detrimental to plants, people, pipes, and plants. Bundle up and take the appropriate precautions. KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly light snow accumulation possible Sunday into Sunday night, with black ice and/or dangerously low wind chills possible Sunday night An arctic cold front is expected to approach from the west Saturday night before likely moving through Sunday, although timing is a bit in question as the latest model guidance suggests a slower evolution than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, an approaching deep upper trough from the west will help increase lift/moisture across the region, although the exact evolution of this feature is also uncertain. In any event, the slower frontal passage should keep temperatures above freezing through Saturday night with the risk for any accumulating snow almost zero and mostly confined to areas west of I-95 close to daybreak. However, confidence thereafter remains quite low due to uncertainties in how quickly the cold air moves in and how much moisture is available. Moisture levels overall appear to be increasing so confidence is higher in measurable precipitation occurring, thus the increase in precip chances up to 60%. The risk for measurable snow (0.1" or greater) appears highest in areas to the north and west where temperatures will be coldest, with areas closer to the coast more likely to just see some snow mix in with the rain before ending later in the day, with an even lower risk for snow accumulations there. The latest GFS ensembles continue to be more aggressive (compared to the Euro/Canadian ensembles) showing ~a 50% chance of at least 1" of snow near/west of I-95 with a 10% or less chance near the coast. The chance for at least 3" is only about 20-30% west of I-95. In any event, another concern is that any wet roadways by late Sunday will re-freeze Sunday night as temps fall into the 20s/upper teens, so black ice could make travel hazardous. Furthermore, the cold temps and winds will lead to wind chills down to around 15 degrees Sun night so a Cold Weather Advisory may eventually be needed, especially for areas near/west of I-95. Needless to say, everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast for early next week, especially if you have travels plans. Note: The last widespread measurable snow across our area was January 21-22, 2025. Additional flurries and snow showers occurred on November 10, 2025. KEY MESSAGE 4: Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday night and Tuesday night Another strong cold front should move through Monday night leading to a continuation of below normal temperatures and low wind chills near Cold Weather Advisory levels (15 degrees) Monday night as well as Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR through the 06Z TAF period, albeit gusty. Winds out of the southwest currently ahead of a front, occasionally gusting up 15-20 kts. The front will move from the northwest to the southeast through later this morning, creating some VFR ceilings at times, potentially down to 3500 ft at their lowest. Winds will start veering to the northwest heading towards 12Z this morning, initially decreasing at first. Gradient winds will start increasing considerably by midday, where gusts could go up to 20-25 kts by the early afternoon. Winds will gradually start coming down during and after sunset, but we still may record gusts in the 15-18 kt range towards the end of the period. Extended Forecast...VFR Friday through Saturday. Low confidence in flight restrictions and possible frozen precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Back to VFR Sunday night through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory continues along the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 1 AM EST tonight. Strong cold front on the way, which will move through the coastal waters later this morning. Stout southwesterly winds will start veering towards the northwest after the frontal passage, perhaps coming down below advisory criteria briefly, but quickly come back up again by early afternoon. May even record a gale force gust or two this evening, but occurrence is nowhere near enough to consider a watch or warning. Seas at 2-4 ft at the coast, 5-6 ft out 20 nm from shore this morning, leveling out slightly to 3- 4 ft everywhere by the afternoon. Late tonight after the advisory expires, look for winds coming down to around 15 kts and seas coming down slightly to 2-4 ft. Friday through Monday Night...Moderate to high confidence. Winds/seas will remain elevated prior to and after a strong cold frontal passage on Sunday with a moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds (gusts of 25+ knots) through Sunday eve with a low risk again Mon night behind another cold front. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
| #1257203 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1209 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Hazardous Marine conditions continue through Thursday afternoon - A dry cold front late Friday/early Saturday, reinforcing cooler temperatures - Low to moderate chance (35-65%) for freezing temperatures from La Salle to Victoria counties early Sunday morning - Rain chances return early next week with increasing moisture and large-scale ascent && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A meridional mid-level pattern remains in place, with a deep trough centered near the Great Lakes and high pressure over northern CA/NV. A mid-level low approaching the southern CA coast will allow deeper moisture to spread into our region early next week. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas around 03-06Z Saturday, followed by somewhat breezy northeasterly winds and hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Saturday. A brief cool-down will follow frontal passage, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s inland, the 40s across the Coastal Bend and around 50 degrees along the immediate coast. The NBM indicates a low to moderate chance (35-65%) of temperatures briefly dipping to freezing or lower across the northern tier of South Texas counties from northern Webb and La Salle to Victoria. Wind chills may fall to around 25 degrees in isolated northeastern locations and into the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Afternoon temperatures Sunday, will be very similar to Saturday, a bit warmer Monday (70s) and cooler again Tuesday (60-65) behind the next cold front. Deterministic guidance brings the next cold front across the region late Monday into early Tuesday, though confidence in timing remains low. Chances of rain showers increase modestly with FROPA with a low to moderate (20-45%) chance across much of the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday. Shower chances persist through mid-week as a coastal trough/surface low develops over the region and shifts eastward. PWAT`s values per the GFS exceed the 99th percentile, while the GEFS ensemble mean above the 75th percentile. Current WPC guidance Day 1 through 7, supports QPF totals near 0.50" along coastal regions with isolated higher amounts possible. Of course, with differences between operational models and uncertainty, the QPF could change and will need to keep an eye on trends and adjust the forecast as necessary. High temperatures after Tuesday are expected to gradually warm back into the low to mid 70s by late week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds will continue for Victoria for a few more hours before diminishing to below 12 knots by 09Z, then light and variable winds will prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly breeze will decrease throughout the day today becoming light and variable by this evening. Tomorrow a moderate (BF 4) southerly breeze will usher in low-level moisture inland ahead of this weekend`s cold front. Behind the front on Saturday, flow shifts northeast and becomes strong (BF6) with Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds gradually decrease through Sunday with an onshore light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze returning late Sunday. Winds gradually increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) and become more easterly early Tuesday as a weaker cold front approaches and stalls over the waters. Low to moderate rain chances (30-45%) will return Saturday and again Tuesday into Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundaries interact with available moisture. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Another cold front is expected this weekend late Friday into early Saturday. Minimum RH values through Sunday are progged to remain less than 30% for the inland regions. Northeasterly winds behind the front will range between 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. ERC values around the 70th percentile will peak between the 75th-80th percentile Saturday and Sunday contributing to elevated Fire Weather concerns. Considering light winds today limiting the fire weather potential have opted to not issue a Fire Danger Statement. However by Saturday, more elevated winds and ERC values combined with dry fuels and a moderate fire danger, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible this weekend and an RFD/RFW may be needed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 64 47 76 52 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 64 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 69 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 67 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 68 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 66 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 54 72 56 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ231-232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1257202 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 116 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Very Cold Tonight - Hard Freeze Inland & Coastal Freeze with frost. Freeze Warning in effect. Cold Weather Advisory for northeast FL. - Elevated Fire Danger Today Southeast GA - Small Craft Advisory today & tonight. Occasional Gusts near Gale Force - Potential for a Rain/Snow Mix Inland Southeast GA Sunday morning. Little to no accumulations expected. - Night Freeze/Frost Event Sunday Night through Tuesday Night. Inland Hard Freezes likely. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Cloudy with passing light showers early this morning ahead of the anticipated cold front. Rainfall accumulations will be light and generally < 0.10". Rainfall moves offshore of the coast by mid-moring with decreasing cloudiness and gusty NW winds by midday trailing the strong frontal passage. Peak gusts near 30 mph are expected into the afternoon with below normal highs only topping out in the mid to upper 40s for much of southeast GA to the low to mid 50s for northeast FL, about 10 to 15 degrees below average. Tonight, a widespread freeze and frost event is expected and a Freeze Warning is now in effect. There is very high confidence of an inland Hard Freeze (temperatures in the mid 20s or lower) for inland locations with a freeze along the immediate coast. Winds subside through the night as surface high pressure builds directly over the local area. As winds near calm through sunrise Friday, areas to widespread frost are expected to develop. Given forecast lows in the mid 20s and a slight wind chill component toward the coast, apparent temperatures in the low 20s are forecast which meets local Cold Weather Advisory criterion for northeast FL early Friday morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Cool high pressure centered overhead on Friday will gradually shift southeastward as another cold front moves through the SE US on Saturday. Flow shifts to southwesterly on Friday beginning a warming trend ahead of the front. Friday will still be cold and dry but not as cold as Thursday. Friday highs will be in the 50s area-wide. High pressure over the area and mostly clear skies will allow for Friday night lows to be in the low-mid 30s inland to upper 30s-low 40s near the coast. Elevated winds overnight over inland SE GA will hinder frost development. Patchy inland frost expected for inland NE FL due to its closer proximity to the high pressure center. Temperatures continue to warm to seasonable on Saturday with highs in the low 60s in inland SE GA to low 70s in north-central FL. Limited moisture return ahead of the front will keep pre-frontal shower coverage isolated and light as they approach inland SE GA and Suwannee Valley Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday night into Sunday, an upper shortwave will round the base of a longwave trough digging into the Gulf as a cold front over southern GA moves southeastward through the area. An increase in moisture (PWATs 0.8-1 in) and ample lift from the shortwave and frontal boundary will lead to scattered showers overspreading the area Saturday night and into late Sunday morning. However, the main focus is the potential for rain/snow shower development early Sunday morning. Models have begun to speed up the arrival of the arctic airmass to the area where it could coincide with the precipitation potentially developing some flurries or light snow mixed in with the rain. If any snow does develop, it will be difficult for the full column of air to reach freezing especially near the surface. Snowfall accumulations will likely be zero or very light with snow likely melting before it reaches the surface. Best chance for any snowfall/flurries will be inland SE GA Sunday morning. We will continue to monitor this system and refine the forecast as we get closer to the weekend. High pressure builds eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front into early next week. Cold and dry conditions return and continue into mid-week next week. Temperatures will once again struggle to warm during the day on Sunday due to strong cold air advection with highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Consecutive frost/freeze events are expected for Monday-Wednesday mornings, with inland hard freeze events likely. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Multi-layered cloudiness will thicken through 12z with MVFR restrictions expected to develop between 09-11z under passing light showers. IFR could impact GNV just ahead of the front between 10-14z where a TEMPO group was advertised. WSW winds will continue to increase through 12z nearing 7-10 kts. Improvement to VFR is expected between 14-16z with increasingly gusty NW winds trailing the frontal passage. Prevailing speeds of 12-16 kts are expected today with gusts near 25 kts. Winds subside this evening to less than 10 kts under VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Winds increase to Small Craft Advisory levels this morning trailing a cold front passage. Small craft conditions will continue through tonight with occasional gusts near gale force. Winds and seas subside Friday as high pressure builds directly over the local waters. The high shifts southeast Saturday as another cold front approaches. This front will move across the local waters early Sunday, with a return to Small Craft Advisory conditions through Sunday night. Winds and seas subside early next week as high pressure builds over the southeast region. Rip Currents: Moderate risk today for northeast FL beaches. Low risk today for southeast GA beaches. Low risk for all local beaches Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersions Today And Sunday - Elevated Fire Danger Today Inland Se Ga Today - Low Dispersion North-Central Fl Friday And Saturday Breezy northwesterly surface and transport winds develop in the wake of the front bringing high dispersions area-wide this afternoon. A cold and dry airmass filters in for the end of the work week lowering RHs into the 20s. Elevated Fire Danger will be possible for inland southeast Georgia Today due to breezy winds and low RHs. High pressure overhead tonight shifts southeastward Friday into Saturday. Low dispersions will be possible across north-central Florida on Friday and Saturday. Another front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday bringing the potential for another round of isolated to scattered showers. Breezy northwesterly winds develop again in the wake of the front on Sunday resulting in high dispersions. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected over the next several days. A widespread freeze is forecast for tonight into Friday morning, including areas to widespread frost. A light inland freeze will be likely each night for several nights beginning Friday Night. && .CLIMATE... Near Record Lows are possible Friday Morning January 16th... Below are records for climate sites and year in which they occurred. Record Low Temperatures: Jan 16th: JAX: 22/1927 GNV: 20/1927 AMG: 21/1948 CRG: 25/1978 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 46 21 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 52 30 53 42 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 53 24 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 55 31 56 40 / 20 0 0 0 GNV 55 25 59 34 / 10 0 0 0 OCF 56 25 58 33 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138- 140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425- 433-522-533-633. Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220- 225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522- 533-633. GA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1257201 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1254 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1249 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Scattered showers continue the remainder of the afternoon and evening favoring east coast metro areas. - A strong cold front moves across the peninsula on Thursday, bringing increased rain chances in the morning hours and much colder temperatures Thursday night into Friday morning. - Low temperatures early Friday morning will range from the lower 30s around Lake Okeechobee and inland South Florida to the lower 40s for coastal metro areas. Apparent temperatures could drop into the mid 20s around the lake, with mid 30s to lower 40s possible for coastal metro areas. - Hazardous marine conditions will return to all local waters beginning Thursday afternoon with strong west-northwest winds between 25-30kts. This breezy westerly flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents across Collier County beaches beginning Thursday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 136 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Guidance continues to trend slightly cooler in terms of low temperatures for Thursday night into Friday morning. Went ahead and issued a Freeze Watch for Glades and Hendry counties as NBM probabilities of sub-freezing temperatures remain in the 40-60% range this afternoon. Cold Weather Advisories will also likely be needed for the remaining interior areas of South Florida, and could be issued within the next 1-2 forecast packages. Breezy west- northwest flow is expected across local waters beginning Thursday afternoon, so Small Craft Advisories were issued for all local waters with this update. Additionally, breezy west flow will increase the risk for rip currents across Collier County beaches early Thursday morning through Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Ensembles guidance, along with global solutions, describe a rather progressive synoptic pattern through Thursday, with a deepening mid/upper lvl trough stretching across the entire Atlantic coastline, pushing the 540/dam into central Florida by Thursday afternoon. At the sfc, an associated frontal boundary is expected to reach the area during the Thursday morning time frame with rain chances increasing and spreading across all of SoFlo. Today will see a similar weather pattern as the previous day with prevailing westerly flow keeping 30-40 POPs focused over the east coast metro areas in the afternoon and early evening hours. Slightly steeper lapse rates may combine with daytime heating for an isolated thunderstorms or two to develop, again favoring east coast locations. Then later tonight shower coverage will begin increasing north-to-south with the anticipated FROPA. Thursday early/mid morning seems to be the window for the highest chances of rain with scattered to numerous showers possible (50-70 POps area-wide). Model PWATs show values around 1.5", along with HREF-QPF max around 1". Lifting/dynamic support remains poor as the parent trough/low complex will be pulling NE into the eastern seaboard. But latest guidance suggest a limited pool of instability over the southern-most areas of the CWA for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly over the southern Atlantic waters and around central/eastern Miami-Dade. High temperatures remain in the mid-upper 70s across much of SoFlo, with coastal areas hitting low 80s. Then temperatures cool down several degrees with increasing shower coverage with a frontal passage on Thursday, keeping afternoon temps in the upper 60s inland, and low-mid 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Long term consensus show synoptic flow over SoFlo veering northward Thursday night into Friday as strong high pressure descend upon much of the SE CONUS in the wake of a trough. A significantly colder/drier airmass will follow and trigger another cold air advection event into the state. Coldest temperatures across SoFLo are still expected Friday morning before sunrise, with coastal areas dropping into the upper 30s to mid 40s, and interior/northern areas in the low-mid 30s. Glades and Hendry may even drop to 30-31 degrees, for which protective actions against cold weather impacts will likely be necessary. Ensure to wear warm clothing not only for the cold air temperatures, but also for the wind chill values, which could drop into the mid 20s around the Lake region, and low-mid 30s elsewhere. Thus, conditons may require a Cold Weather Advisory Friday morning if these trends remain consistent in upcoming guidance. Friday afternoon will still be fairly cool for being SoFlo, with coastal warmest areas still lingering the upper 60s. Temperatures then gradually warm up on Saturday, but still remaining around the low-mid 70s. Then on Sunday, models seem to suggest the onset of another cool down with yet another front approaching the area. Uncertainty in long range guidance has decreased and confidence has increased regarding having a dry FROPA for the late Sunday/Monday morning timeframe. Lows may again drop into the 30s and 40s, and Monday afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 VFR conditions will begin deteriorating after 09-10Z ahead of a frontal passage. Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with showers will require tempos and ammds through around 15-16Z as the area of rain associated with the front clears the area. By this afternoon, winds will veer NW and NNW by this evening, with gusts in the 25-30kt range possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Winds will gradually shift to the SW today over the Atlantic waters and increasing to around 15 kt. Over the Gulf, winds will veer further to the NW by the afternoon hours. Scattered shower activity will also continue through this late this afternoon, especially over the Atlantic waters. Showers and even potential for isolated thunderstorms will increase in the overnight to Thursday morning time period with the arrival of a cold front. Hazardous conditions are expected behind the front Thursday late morning and through Friday morning. && .BEACHES... Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents remain in place for all the beaches of Palm Beach county today. By Thursday afternoon the risk may increase across much of the Atlantic beaches as winds increase behind a frontal passage. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 45 69 59 / 40 0 0 0 West Kendall 76 40 70 53 / 40 0 0 0 Opa-Locka 75 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0 Homestead 76 44 70 57 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 73 44 68 59 / 50 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 73 44 69 59 / 50 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 74 42 69 56 / 40 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 71 42 68 57 / 50 0 0 0 Boca Raton 73 42 69 57 / 50 0 0 0 Naples 71 40 67 50 / 70 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ063- 066. High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM EST early this morning through Friday morning for FLZ069. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 1 PM EST Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Friday for GMZ656-657-676. && $$ |
| #1257200 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1258 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers move through the region overnight into Thursday morning. The probability of thunderstorms is low. - Hazardous to dangerous marine conditions begin later tonight and last through Friday morning. Inexperienced mariners should remain in harbor until conditions improve. - A prolonged and significant cooldown begins later today. Friday morning will be the coldest, but another front moving through on Sunday will bring a reinforcing bout of similarly cold temps for the beginning of next week as well. Protect sensitive vegetation and exposed outdoor pipes, dress appropriately, and know the signs of hypothermia. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Rain shield with embedded heavier showers currently over offshore waters approaching terminals will bring mainly MVFR conditions across terminals with reduced cigs/vsbys through the remainder of tonight into Thursday morning. Associated cold front moves across area during the morning with winds shifting NW`ly and becoming gusty late morning through the afternoon as precip tapers off while cigs linger a bit longer into the afternoon before lifting to VFR, with winds gradually diminishing during the evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 61 36 60 44 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 68 36 65 48 / 70 0 0 0 GIF 61 33 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 65 36 61 43 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 58 24 59 32 / 30 0 0 0 SPG 63 41 60 50 / 50 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota- Pinellas-Polk-Sumter. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for Coastal Citrus- Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee- Highlands-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando- Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco- Polk-Sumter. High Rip Current Risk from 4 AM EST early this morning through Friday afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters- Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1257198 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1236 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 - A strong cold front moves through the area tonight, bringing increasing chances for showers - Below normal temperatures from Thursday onward with sub- freezing temperatures and wind chills Friday morning; a Freeze Watch remains in effect for much of the area - Brief warmup on Saturday is ended by another cold front Sunday, producing cold mornings and cool afternoon temperatures through early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Rest of Today-Tonight...A line of showers has developed across north Florida this afternoon, ahead of our approaching cold front. Have added in a slight chance (~20%) for a few of these quick- moving showers to impact areas along and north of I-4 this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist through the remainder of the daytime hours. Tonight, a strong cold front is forecast to begin to push southward through the Florida peninsula, before moving into south Florida Thursday morning. Shower chances increase along and ahead of the front, with scattered showers increasing PoPs to around 60%. Limited instability is expected to preclude any storms, so have kept the probability of thunder low (below 15%). Light southwesterly winds to begin the evening will veer northwesterly behind the front and increase. Winds closer to 10 mph near sunrise will likely be a bit more elevated than normal for the time of day. Temperatures will remain well above any cold thresholds tonight, with morning lows in the 50s for most areas. Far northern portions of the forecast area, where the front will pass through first, are expected to dip into the upper 40s. Thursday-Friday...The aforementioned front is forecast to bisect the local area by sunrise. Scattered showers will remain possible through most of the morning, before MUCH drier air (PWATs 0.2" or less) advects into the area from north to south by the afternoon. High pressure building eastward across the northern Gulf Coast will lead to a tight pressure gradient Thursday. Northwesterly winds are forecast around 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25-30 mph. Daytime temperatures will begin a downward trend, struggling to rise out of the 50s along and north of I-4, with 60s to the south. All eyes then turn to Thursday night, when clear skies and dew points in the upper teens to mid-20s allow overnight lows to plunge into the upper 20s to lower 30s for most areas. The earlier Freeze Watch remains unchanged due to the time frame. However, would expect most, if not all, of the current Watch to be upgraded to a Warning, depending on model guidance during tonight`s forecast update. In fact, even the far northwestern corner of Martin County currently has a 30% chance for peak low temperatures of 32 degrees or less. However, confidence on the duration of near-freezing temperatures prevented adding that area to the Watch. Regardless, it will be cold area-wide, made to feel even colder by north-northwesterly winds. While not as breezy as Thursday afternoon, wind chills in the mid to upper 20s are forecast. A Cold Weather Advisory is expected, though again have not issued this advisory quite yet given the time frame. Residents and visitors should develop a plan now to protect plants, pipes, and people and pets without adequate shelter. After a cold start, will see a limited warm up into Friday afternoon. High pressure drifting over the Florida peninsula will at least lead to light winds, though daytime highs will still remain well below normal. Forecast high temperatures are in the upper 50s to mid-60s once again, under clear skies. While light, the placement of the high should generate enough onshore flow to rebound dew points for at least coastal areas, helping to moderate overnight lows into Friday night. While temperatures are expected to remain chilly in the upper 30s to mid-40s, temperatures and wind chills look to remain above criteria at this time. Will need to watch the threat for some patchy frost in rural Lake and Volusia Counties, though temperatures even there are a bit borderline. Saturday-Wednesday (modified previous)...Broad mid level troughing, centered over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning, will begin to deepen and rotate eastward on Sunday. On Saturday, temperatures recover into the 60s and low 70s, if only for one day. Another cold front is forecast to approach on Sunday and move through the area by Sunday night. While moisture looks limited for this frontal passage, have introduced a slight (20%) chance for a few showers near and north of Orlando Sunday afternoon. Prepare for another cooldown to start next week, with lows Monday morning again approaching the freezing mark in a number of locations (rural interior and north of I-4), along with wind chills in the upper 20s to mid 30s. High pressure builds overhead by Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing temps to climb back into the 60s and low 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Poor boating conditions offshore this afternoon become hazardous area-wide tonight into Thursday, as a cold front pushes through the local waters. Westerly winds 15-20 kts will increase to 20-25 kts out of the northwest Thursday afternoon. This will cause seas to build to up to 7-9 ft in the Gulf Stream by Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect late tonight. Scattered showers will be possible along and ahead of the front. Conditions will improve into the early portion of the weekend, though seas will be slow to subside in the Gulf Stream and remain poor to hazardous into Friday. However, high pressure and light winds look to return seas to 2-3 ft by Saturday afternoon. Then, yet another cold front Sunday is forecast to once again bring poor to hazardous boating conditions into early next week. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1235 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 Showers forecast across the terminals early this morning as a cold front moves southward across the area. TEMPOs in place for VIS and CIG reductions due to -SHRA, with activity anticipated to diminish by 17Z at all terminals. Breezy and gusty NW winds forecast behind the front, with gusts to 27 knots possible at times. Winds diminish to around 10 knots late tonight, with dry conditions forecast to persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 152 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Periods of sensitive to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next week or so, as a series of cold fronts move through the area. It begins Thursday afternoon, when much drier air rapidly advects southward into east central Florida behind the first front. A tightened pressure gradient and northwesterly winds 15-20 mph, with gusts 25-30 mph, will create a small window where min RH falls to 35-40% near and north of I-4, while winds remain elevated. Also, breezy transport winds producing very good to excellent dispersion could cause some containment issues. Lighter winds then return through Saturday, but min RH looks to remain as low as 25-35% over the interior Friday afternoon. A brief reprieve Saturday will be short-lived, before yet another cold front Sunday brings more dry air and sensitive conditions into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 31 59 41 / 40 0 0 0 MCO 60 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 MLB 64 34 62 47 / 70 0 0 0 VRB 66 34 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 LEE 57 30 59 39 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 59 32 61 41 / 40 0 0 0 ORL 59 34 60 44 / 40 0 0 0 FPR 66 33 64 46 / 70 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041- 044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-247-254-259-264-347-447-547- 647-747. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for FLZ041-044>046- 053-058-141-144-247-254-259-547. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for FLZ347- 647. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ550-552. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 4 PM EST Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1257199 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1140 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - Small Craft Advisories are in effect through mid-afternoon Thursday. A few gusts to gale force are possible. - A few locations well north of Interstate 12 could briefly fall below freezing around sunrise Thursday with a more widespread freeze likely Friday morning. - Some indications of potential for snowfall Saturday night across portions of the area. Not a high confidence forecast on specifics at this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Deep longwave trough over much of the eastern half of the country this evening with multiple shortwaves moving through it. One will continue to move across the local area this evening. Upper ridging was centered near Lake Tahoe. At the surface, a cold front had moved offshore, with a reinforcing boundary approaching McComb and Baton Rouge at 10 PM CST. Temperatures ranged from mid 40s to lower 50s for most of the area. A few sprinkles of rain were noted on radar and surface observations, but areal coverage has been diminishing. Trough axis should be exiting the east portions of the CWA prior to sunrise, taking most or all of the cloud cover along with it. The next shortwave to move into the trough should be moving through the middle Mississippi River Valley by sunrise Saturday. This will force another cold front through the local area Friday night. Moisture will be very limited along this front, and at this point, wouldn`t expect much more than a few sprinkles of rain. High temperatures not much more than the lower or middle 50s Thursday afternoon, but sunshine ahead of the approaching front should allow temperatures to rebound to at least the middle 60s for highs on Friday. Lows Friday morning are expected to drop to near or below freezing across much of the northern half of the area, but clouds should hold them in the lower and middle 40s in most areas Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Main forecast question during the long term portion of the forecast will be the potential for precipitation Saturday night and the temperatures when that occurs. As noted above, there will be a cold front moving through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. All forecast indications at this point have the front offshore Saturday morning with high temperatures responding into the 50s during the daytime hours. A strong shortwave will move through the upper trough Saturday, crossing the Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Valleys Saturday night, with the axis to the east of the area by sunrise Sunday. Looking at forecast soundings from earlier in the day, any moisture advection will be above the 850 mb level, with a northerly wind component below that level. The 12z and 18z GFS runs would be supportive of snow potential, mainly between 9 pm Saturday night and 3 am Sunday morning. However, the 12z ECMWF indicated any significant moisture will have departed before the sounding gets cold enough to support snow. Deterministic NBM probabilities for measurable precipitation Saturday night were in the 20 to 30 percent range at grid ingest time. The deterministic QPF (approaching 0.25 inch in some areas) looked to be fairly close to the NBM 75th percentile. Arguing against accumulating snow on the ground will be ground temperatures. With highs in the 60s Friday and in the 50s Saturday, it would take some fairly significant snowfall rates to overcome ground temperatures. Bottom line...Is there a chance of snow Saturday night? Yes, but there`s currently a higher probability that no measurable precipitation at all occurs. Over the next 24 hours or so, we`ll be getting into the range where higher resolution modeling becomes more available at those time steps, and hopefully resolves the differences in current output giving us a more confident forecast. Beyond the Saturday night system, high pressure should keep precipitation away from the local area until about Tuesday night or Wednesday, when a southern stream shortwave could spread rain back into the area. Temperatures from Sunday through mid-week next week are expected to generally be below normal, perhaps as much as 10 degrees or so on Sunday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 VFR conditions across all terminals. There are a few SHRA around KMCB and KBTR, with areal coverage diminishing quickly. BKN to OVC decks with bases near FL040 and FL080 will continue to move across the area this evening, with only a few clouds reported below FL030. Drier air should overwhelm the moisture prior to sunrise with most terminals SKC for the back half of the forecast period. Gusty winds over the next 6 hours or so with sustained winds of 15-20 knots possible, but wind speeds should drop off significantly beyond 18z Thursday, to near calm beyond 00z at all terminals except KNEW. && .MARINE... Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Small Craft Advisories will remain in place as currently depicted until expiration Thursday afternoon, having seen no indications of a need for extension. Conditions should improve for Thursday night into the weekend. Will likely need Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for portions of the waters over the weekend, and can`t rule out advisories. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 49 29 66 40 / 0 0 0 30 BTR 53 29 69 43 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 52 27 66 46 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 53 37 69 48 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 51 31 64 47 / 10 0 0 20 PQL 52 27 65 45 / 0 0 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1257197 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1242 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front crosses the area late tonight into Thursday. Spotty light rain showers are possible tonight along with breezy westerly winds behind the front. 2) Turning colder Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry through Friday, there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday. 3) Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast on Sunday with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. && .DISCUSSION... As of 650 PM EST Wednesday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front crosses the area late tonight into Thursday. Spotty light rain showers are possible tonight along with breezy westerly winds behind the front. The first round of showers has moved offshore this evening. Additional light showers remain possible later tonight ahead of a strong cold front. However, confidence continues to decrease with the latest CAMs showing little (if any) additional showers. Given the trend for drier conditions overnight, CAMs no longer have any wintry mix and just have plain rain. Any rain moves offshore by Thu morning as drier air moves in behind the front. Overnight low temps range from the mid 20s in the Piedmont to the mid 30s along the coast. Additionally, winds become W and breezy overnight behind the front with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible. KEY MESSAGE 2...Turning colder Thursday and Friday. Below normal temperatures are expected from Thursday night into early next week. Mainly dry through Friday, there is a low-end chance for some light precipitation on Saturday. Skies clear quickly from west to east Thursday morning. Gusty NW winds are expected in the wake of the surface cold front. Deep mixing and very dry air aloft will allow afternoon RH values to fall below 30% despite high temperatures only in the 30s to low 40s. Wind chills likely do not get out of the 20s for the NW half of the area and only in the low to mid 30s SE. Winds decrease Thursday night with lows falling into the teens to low 20s under clear skies. High pressure to the south moves offshore on Friday but temperatures remain on the cool side in the 40s. A bit warmer Saturday ahead of the cold front with highs ranging from the mid 40s NW to the upper 50s SE. There is a slight chance for a shower or two across the NW half of the area but moisture is limited. Turning cold once again Saturday night with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s. KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure develops off the Southeast coast on Sunday with the potential for wintry precip across portions of the area. Uncertainty remains very high regarding specific impacts. Attention then turns to Sunday as a deep trough digs southward toward the central Gulf Coast. Surface low pressure forms off the SE coast Sunday morning and lifts NE. 12z guidance has mainly continued the trend of the overnight models to favor a stronger surface low closer to the coast. The GFS and its ensembles are the most bullish with increasing probabilities for impactful/accumulating snowfall, focused across the SE half of the area. The ECMWF and EPS snow probs are lower but have trended towards the stronger low pressure/closer to the coast scenario over the last few cycles. With a low track near or offshore, expect plenty of cold air to be in place ahead of the surface low. At this time, it appears that p-type will be in the form of snow with perhaps some mixed precip possible near the coast depending on how close the low tracks. There are many moving parts to this portion of the forecast so users are encouraged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts as the specifics of the upper level and surface pattern become clearer over the next 24-48 hours. Very cold air moves into the region behind this system with below normal temperatures expected to linger through mid week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Thursday... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period. Clouds clear from W to E early this morning, with mainly clear conditions from mid morning through the rest of the period. A low chance for MVFR CIGs remains possible across SE VA/NE NC and the Eastern Shore between 9-12z as the cold front crosses through. However, confidence remains too low to reflect in the TAFs at this time. SW winds around 10 kt early this morning veer around to the W then WNW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt behind a strong cold front later this morning, continuing through this afternoon. Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Fri with some potential for MVFR CIGs on Sat. Cannot rule out a few rain or snow showers Sat morning, mainly across the Piedmont. Another system approaches the region Saturday night and potentially impacts the region on Sunday with snow or a rain/snow mix and flight restrictions possible. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - Strong northwesterly winds are expected tonight through Friday morning. High-end SCA conditions are expected with Gale conditions possible, particularly Thursday night. - Tidal anomalies remain low for the foreseeable future and low water conditions are possible in the lower Chesapeake Bay and James River by Friday. Breezy conditions are ongoing over the local waters this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. SW winds are around 15kt and gusts up to 20kt. Latest buoy obs indicate seas of 3-4ft N of Cape Charles and 2-3ft to the south. While the afternoon is falling just short of criteria, the SCA for the northern coastal waters is still in effect into tonight since seas/winds will come back up ahead of and behind the cold front. The aforementioned front will pass over the waters late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Winds abruptly switch to the NW behind the front and increase to 20-25kt with gusts around 30kt. SCAs go into effect for all of the marine zones later tonight. Since this is a fairly strong front with a 35-40kt LLJ, there could be a couple of hours right before sunrise with gale force gusts as it passes through. However, these should be brief and sporadic in nature since there does not appear to be strong enough mixing during that time period to bring those stronger winds to the surface. Will issue SMWs if necessary. NW winds of 20-25kt continue through the day Thurs, increasing to 25-30kt Thurs night with an another push of CAA. Prevailing winds may be a bit lower on the upper rivers and Currituck Sound, but are expected to reach SCA criteria regardless. Have maintained the Gale Watch for the coastal waters north of Cape Charles for the Thurs night period. Local wind probs have actually trended down a bit and now only show ~50% for the waters N of Parramore Island and <20% as far south as Cape Charles. Given the marginal nature, the downward trend in probs, and the fact that it is still over 24 hours out, decided to hold off on any upgrades at this point. Winds relax to ~15kt on Friday and return to the SW as high pressure slides by to the south. SW winds increase again to 20- 25kt Friday evening into Saturday morning ahead of another cold front. Seas ramp up again tonight to 3-5 ft as winds increase behind the cold front. Seas increase further Thursday night to 4-6 ft, with 3-5 ft waves possible in the Chesapeake Bay as well. Seas diminish to 2- 3ft Friday, increasing again to around 4ft Fri night. Waves in the bay will be around 2ft Friday, then 2-3ft Fri night. Will also note the potential for Low Water Advisories in the in the lower Chesapeake Bay, James River and York River Fri and especially Sat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ630>634-638- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. Gale Watch from this evening through Friday morning for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1257196 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:51 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1144 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 - A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1AM tonight to 9 AM Thursday as wind chills fall into the teens to lower 20s. - Strong winds over the marine area will create hazardous conditions for small craft through mid week, with Gale conditions expected over open Gulf waters later tonight. - Flurries are possible Saturday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 127 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Now through Wednesday... Guidance continues to advertise a roller coaster in store for the forecast area and nearby through the forecast. Starting with today through Thursday, a pair of upper level shortwaves pass over the Southeast today into Thursday, with a strong cold front moving over the forecast area this afternoon into this evening. A colder, drier airmass moves over the forecast area behind the front, with apparent temperatures dropping into the mid teens to low 20s tonight, as ambient temperatures bottom out in the mid 20s north of Highway 84 to low/mid 30s south of I-10. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the forecast area for later tonight into Thursday morning. Winds lighten Thursday as a surface high passes over the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night, precluding the need for an advisory as temperatures drop into the around 25 to upper 20s Thursday night. The cold air will limit daytime high temperatures to the mid 40s north of Highway 84 to around 50s along the coast. The strong northerly flow will bring dangerous offshore winds to area waters tonight into Thursday. On to the next period of interest, Friday through the weekend. An upper level shortwave trough swings around the base of an upper low over the Great Lakes Friday, as a stronger shortwave begins to dive south around the west side of the upper low. This energy merges with the low, then dives south over the eastern Conus Saturday into Sunday, with another strong cold front moving south over the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. A strong reinforcing front passes Saturday night. Some moisture return occurs ahead of the first frontal passage for this period, with precipitable h20 values rising to near 1", enough for some rainshowers Friday night into Saturday. Drier air begins to overspread the forecast area behind this front, with precipitable h20 values dropping to 0.5" northwest to 0.8" southeast just before the second cold push occurs. Temperatures top out in the mid 50s to around 60 Saturday, around seasonal. Solutions for Saturday night as cold air moves over the area have been consistent, with inconsistent timing of upper dynamics, along with drier air pushing south with the second front. The latest guidance is advertising enough ingredients for precipitation over mainly the southern half of the forecast area and over the Gulf. The biggest question will be what form the precipitation will be, with a cold and saturated enough airmass in the lowest 15k`. Consensus in the guidance says enough for light snow to snow flurries on the back side of the precipitation. The GFS is advertising enough overrunning/southwesterly flow in the 750mb and above to bring significant accumulations, mainly along and southeast of I-65. This is a significant increase from previous runs, and other guidance. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are hinting at very small accumulations, so at this point, am just mentioning light snow/flurries behind the rain. I would like to see more consistency in the guidance before I go any higher than flurries, and with this time frame being in the extended, have some time to play with. Will keep an eye on it. High temperatures ahead of the first front top out in the low to mid 60s Friday, dropping into the mid 40s to around 50 for Sunday. Low temperatures crater from around 40 northwest to around 50 along the coast Friday night, 20s for Sunday night. Monday through Wednesday, zonal upper flow sets up over the Southeast. Yet another frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday will reinforce a dry airmass over the forecast area. high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are expected Monday and Wednesday, with the passing front dropping temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s for Tuesday. Low temperatures in the upper 20s north of Highway 84 to upper 30s along the coast are expected MOnday and Tuesday nights. A roller coaster of winds, mainly with respect to direction, will help to limit longer periods of onshore flow, keeping the Rip Risk at Low, to occasionally Moderate levels. /16 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period as light rain showers exit our area. The back edge of the cloud shield continues to nudge into our area with clearing skies area-wide by pre-dawn. Northerly winds will steadily increase overnight with gusts to 25-30 kts throughout much of the morning. Winds slowly begin to relax by late afternoon. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 127 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 A strong cold front moving over the area this afternoon will bring strong offshore flow tonight into Thursday. Gales, mainly by frequent gusts, are possible over our far offshore waters later tonight into Thursday morning. Light to moderate, mainly offshore flow expected Friday into the coming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 62 31 50 29 / 20 10 0 0 Pensacola 61 32 48 33 / 30 20 0 0 Destin 61 34 49 33 / 50 20 0 0 Evergreen 58 26 46 22 / 50 20 0 0 Waynesboro 57 27 46 25 / 50 20 0 0 Camden 55 26 43 24 / 70 20 0 0 Crestview 61 29 48 22 / 40 20 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ051>060- 261>266. FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ201>206. MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ670- 675. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ670-675. && $$ |
| #1257195 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - After yesterday`s front, look for a dry chilly day today, with a short warmup Friday...until another front moves through late in the afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend, but have little rain potential. - The trend of a quick succession of disturbed weather persists next week, including another cold front and a coastal trough that will bring our next decent chances of rain. - Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 One front through, but more to go! This evening is a bit blustery around the area, with winds of 10-15 mph along with gusts into the teens and lower 20s...as high as 30 mph down on the island. These winds should gradually taper down overnight, but things still look a bit gusty by morning particularly closer to the coast, with winds of 5-10 mph but paired with lingering gusts into the teens. The next few hours also look quite chilly, with a light freeze north of Huntsville. We`ll see winds continue to weaken through the day as weak high pressure slides across the region from Central Texas towards the North Central Gulf Coast. This sets us up for a fully sunny day, but still fairly chilly and quite dry on Thursday. Like yesterday, fuels conditions are still near normal moisture, even still above normal in localized spots. But, with underlying drought conditions, drier fuels will be able to emerge more rapidly than typical, especially in grassy areas - despite the weakening winds, the very low RH forecast would probably mean that it`s another day to avoid work with things that can throw sparks and open flame, unless you`re doing a professional prescribed burn that is looking for these specific conditions to achieve the desired benefit. By Thursday evening, the high will have moved off well to our east, returning onshore flow for much of the day Friday. This will help return a modest amount of humidity to the area, though dry spots out west could still see RH briefly dip below 30 percent, so we`re not getting real humid here. But, with the wind shift shutting off the cold advection machine, another mostly sunny day should help temps rise back up into the 60s to lower 70s. Warm weather lovers, don`t get too attached! This bit of slightly above average temps will be cut off when our next front comes through late Friday afternoon. This puts us on track for a day Saturday that looks very much like Thursday will. Mostly sunny but chilly with some gusty north winds. Onshore flow looks to be slower to come back, more by Sunday evening, so the weekend as a whole looks like it will be a seasonably cool one - chillier than the average, but not by a significant amount, so pretty recognizable as "winter in Southeast Texas". Monday puts us on the upswing of this pendulum, with temperatures and humidity a bit higher, but ultimately will be cut short again by a front Monday night. Now...here`s where we start to see things get a little more mixed up, but one thing that will stay is a progressive pattern of disturbances, so don`t expect the weather to be too stable. Indeed, that will help hold down confidence in the specifics, but the guidance seems to be settling in on a broad scenario that we can sketch out for now and flesh out in the coming days. Without a ton of time for moisture return again, the frontal passage does not look to carry a lot of rain chances on it. But, it should be more significant than this week`s fronts. I have slight chances in the area, centered more towards the coast, through Monday night and into Tuesday. But where things look more promising for rain is with the development of a coastal trough/warm front on the frontal zone left behind. As that drifts northward, we`ll get more significant onshore flow and moisture return. The surface trough will also provide a focus for rainfall development, so PoPs continue to go up through the day next Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually tailing off Thursday. Where the best potential for rain will be is going to depend very much on how far inland this coastal trough can lift, and getting too specific on that now is far too speculative. But, for now, we have PoPs up to 30 percent even well inland. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Gusty northerly winds will decrease this evening into tonight. The exception will be near the coast, where winds will likely remain elevated into to morrow morning. Wind shear values are not expected to reach thresholds that would warrant mention in the TAFs. That being said, we will need to monitor the shear as surface winds decrease while winds aloft remain elevated this evening into tonight (00Z to 09Z). For tomorrow, expect much lighter winds. We think tomorrow`s winds will generally average from the north, but may become more variable as the day progresses. && .MARINE... Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Strong northwesterly to northerly winds and rougher seas are occurring across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front and a small craft advisory will persist through the night and into Thursday morning. Deeper into the day, conditions will gradually improve, with light and more variable winds by evening. Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions of the bays. Onshore winds return Thursday evening, but only briefly before the next cold front arrives Friday night. Early next week will bring continued disturbed weather, along with our next decent chances for rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 34 59 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 59 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 46 58 52 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335. Low Water Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ335. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
| #1257194 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1233 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1227 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 - Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight for parts of our area for wind chills below 25 degrees (western Florida Panhandle) or below 20 degrees (southeastern Alabama and portions of southwest Georgia). Additional Cold Weather Advisories will be needed for our Florida counties, at least, Thursday night into Friday morning. - Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze (25F or lower) remains in effect Thursday night into Friday morning for our entire area away from the immediate coast. There is a medium chance (50-70%) of temperatures tumbling below 20 degrees across portions of southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia north of US-84 Friday morning. - Hazardous marine conditions tonight behind the cold front. Gale warnings continue for the offshore Gulf waters between Apalachicola and the Walton-Okaloosa line. - There is a low (less than 20%) chance of a rain/snow mix early Sunday morning for much of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and portions of the western Florida Big Bend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Evening satellite and surface observations show a deep upper trough whose axis extends across the Northern Gulf coast. Two cold fronts are attendant to this system, the first of which has entered the Wiregrass Region per 0Z analysis. Ahead of the boundary are bands of low to high clouds with embedded light radar returns. Tonight`s rain chances were tweaked based on the latest trends, especially over the waters where most guidance outside of local CAMs appeared to be overdoing PoPs. Sky cover was also adjusted using an even blend of the HRRR & NBM. Expect cold-air advection on the heels of breezy NW post-frontal winds to usher in freezing to sub-freezing wind chills outside of the Eastern FL Big Bend. A Cold Weather Advisory (CW.Y) goes into effect early tomorrow morning for SE AL, the Flint River Valley, and parts of the FL Panhandle where feels-like temperatures are forecast to drop into the 18-24-degree range. Local CW.Y criteria for AL/GA is 11-20 degrees & North FL is 16-25 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Few showers are moving out of the southeastern Florida Big Bend this afternoon with a few more tonight as a secondary cold front swings through the region. Much colder weather is in the offering tonight with widespread lower to middle 30s. The combination of wind and cooling temperatures has led to the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory for portions of the western Florida Panhandle. Wind chill values are forecast to dip below 25 degrees for a few hours. Breezy northerly winds push cold temperatures over us Thursday afternoon. Temperatures struggle to get out of the 40s in many locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 The coldest air so far this season arrives Thursday night into Friday morning as a strong 1030mb high settles overhead. The combination of clear skies and calm winds will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions over much of the area. This leads to widespread temperatures in the lower 20s across the region away from the immediate coast. The Freeze Watch for a Hard Freeze continues for this potential and will likely be upgraded to a Freeze Warning for a Hard Freeze tonight. A quick warming trend commences Friday afternoon and Saturday as temperatures warm back into the upper 50s to middle 60s. Another cold front swings into the region Saturday night into Sunday morning. Limited moisture return will keep precipitation chances low (around 20 to 30%) at this time. However, it`ll be an interesting frontal passage and we`ll chat about it in greater detail below. Another cold spell arrives behind Sunday`s cold front with the potential for another hard freeze across much of the area. Temperatures begin moderating by mid-week. Okay, so back to Sunday morning. It`s very much a "thread the needle" kind of event. In other words, wintry mischief is a long shot, but in the words of Lloyd Christmas: So you`re telling me there`s a chance. Yes. Yes, there is. However, it`s a low (less than 20%) chance at this time. There are a few things working both for and against wintry weather Sunday morning and will chat about what we`ll be watching the next couple of days. Okay, so what does this event have going for it? There is a broad H5 trough diving out of Canada Friday night into Saturday. A shortwave will be rotating around the trough on the western side of it, which eventually gets flung eastward as it rounds the base of the trough Saturday night. This provides ample lift ahead of it, right over our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Additionally, we`ll be in the right entrance region of a stout 100+ knot jet at 200mb over the southeast, further enhancing upper-level lift. A strong cold front rushes southeast through the region early Sunday morning, providing a focal point for lift at the surface. In other words, there`s lots of lift around. We`ll also have a strong 1030+ mb surface high oozing out of Canada and into our area Saturday night into Sunday morning. This is what`s bringing the cold weather, whether it brings wintry weather or not. What is working against it? Cold chasing moisture. Precipitation typically outruns the arrival of the cold. Virtually all model and ensemble guidance has rain changing over to snow on the western (or back) side of the precipitation. In this forecaster`s experience, that usually doesn`t work out so well or typically happens exactly as modeled by global models. We`ll keep an eye on how hi-res guidance starts handling things, but those only go out 48 to 84 hours. We`ll start to get in the range of some of the hi-res guidance tonight. Another thing working against it are dew points forecast to be well into the 40s and even lower 50s for portions of the area Saturday afternoon. Add in the fact forecast temperatures Saturday afternoon are in the upper 50s and 60s and it`ll be tough to wet bulb, or cool, close to freezing. That said, strong Cold Air Advection (CAA) arrives Saturday night into Sunday morning. But that goes back to whether the cold can appropriately cool the nearly saturated column of air before precipitation ends. That`s a big ask in many parts of the country, much less along the Gulf Coast. Let`s break down a few potential scenarios: Scenario #1: The precipitation outruns the cold and we`re stuck with an all rain event. The cold is delayed just long enough to limit any snow accumulation potential. Scenario #2: The cold arrives, as advertised, and allows for a sudden change over to wintry weather (read snow). If this scenario were to play out, there`d be a 1 to 3 hour window for snow before quickly exiting to the east Sunday morning. Exact timing would be tricky leading up to the event, much less 3.5-4 days out. Scenario #3: The trough is a little more east than forecast and we get a dry frontal passage. That means little to no rain; no wintry weather. Nada. Just cold. We`ll continue to monitor the potential the next couple of days and adjust the forecast as necessary. Be sure to remain updated with the latest weather forecast and get your weather information from trusted sources. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 KTLH: Smoke should disperse by 09Z as the cold fropa occurs. As of 05Z, band -RA associated with the cold fropa is moving through ABY/ECP. Brief MVFR restrictions as this band moves eastward. VFR has returned to DHN and expect it to return to the remainder of the terminals (west to east) from 08-11Z. Northwest winds gusting around 20 kts follow the cold front until closer to 00Z, when they begin to diminish. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 A strong cold front pushes through the northeastern Gulf tonight, leading to hazardous marine conditions tonight into Thursday. Northwesterly wind gusts to gale force will follow the front tonight into Thursday with the strongest winds in the offshore waters west of Apalachicola. Winds will quickly decrease on Thursday night and Friday as a high center passes directly across the waters Friday evening. Yet another cold front will cross the waters on Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 Good to excellent dispersions are forecast Thursday after a cold front swings through the area very early Thursday morning. Strong, gusty surface and transport winds will follow the front Thursday afternoon, supporting higher dispersions across the region. MinRH will fall to near critical values, especially across portions of southwestern Georgia Thursday and again Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Jan 14 2026 No flooding is anticipated the next several days. A storm system over the weekend will bring a bit of rain to the area. Rainfall totals are generally forecast to be less than 0.10", with a low (20%) chance of portions of the Florida Big Bend into south-central Georgia picking up more than 0.25" of liquid equivalent precipitation over the weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 48 26 56 42 / 0 0 0 10 Panama City 51 32 62 53 / 0 0 0 30 Dothan 46 25 59 44 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 46 21 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 48 23 55 36 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 54 22 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 49 32 60 52 / 0 0 0 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for FLZ007>011. Freeze Warning from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118-127- 128-134-326-426. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening to 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-118- 127-128-134-326-426. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112-114. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>124-126-142. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday for GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161. AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for ALZ065>069. Freeze Warning from 10 PM Thursday to 8 AM CST Friday for ALZ065>069. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ735. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ770-772. && $$ |
| #1257193 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1231 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation moves out faster Thursday morning with decreased rain and snow chances. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet and for the rivers and sounds from late tonight through Thursday night. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A low pressure system passes offshore tonight with an Arctic front pushing through early Thursday morning. Strong CAA behind the front will bring wind chill values in the teens Thursday night into Friday morning. 2) A system with limited moisture moves through Sunday bringing rain and wintry precip chances, with another surge of cold, dry air behind it. MARINE: SCA conditions Wednesday through Thursday night. SCA conditions possible again for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A robust northern stream trough continues to dig into the eastern CONUS today. Meanwhile, a weakening embedded shortwave is lifting across the Southeast with low pressure beginning to develop off the coast. Have seen periods of showers off the coast this morning and beginning to see precip moving in from the west this afternoon. While the returns are beginning to look impressive on KMHX radar, have seen little sfc observations reporting rain as of yet. The most impressive returns moving into western sections are sampling the melting layer and actual precip rates are likely much less. Best precip chances will occur through the rest of the afternoon, then will taper off west to east as the low passes off the coast as the low lifts NE away from the area. Precip amounts continue to look limited, mainly less than a tenth of an inch for most locations. A second shortwave moves through the upper trough tonight with an attendant cold front pushing across ENC early Thursday morning. Guidance continues to trend drier with the frontal passage but cannot rule out a brief shower and maintained slight chances pops as the front pushes through. Model soundings indicate the column drying before sufficient cooling occurs to see a chance over to rain/snow and now keep precip chances as rain. Temps tonight will remain in the 40s until the front pushes through, then will see strong CAA develop after the frontal passage with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s for highs during the day Thursday. Thursday afternoon/evening dewpoints drop quite a bit behind the front, likely reaching the single digits inland during peak mixing. Mixing will also allow for gusty conditions Thursday, 25-30 mph in the fcst. Gusty winds continue into the evening hours Thursday night but diminish late as high pressure builds in from the west providing decent radiational cooling and wend below NBM for lows, which are expected in the upper teens to lower 20s inland and lower 20s along the coast. Wind chill values are expected to drop into the mid teens late tonight which may warrant a cold weather advisory early Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2... A deep upper level trough with an associated cold front and low off the coast is expected to move through the region Sunday. Models are trending towards a shortwave bringing rain and snow chances to ENC, but considering it is 5 days out and there are some models differences, confidence remains low. PoPs have increased to around 30-40% with the latest guidance, even though some 12z models keep the low farther offshore and conditions drier across ENC. Cyclonic flow continues aloft early to mid next week with additional dry fronts/troughs pushing across the region keeping temps well below normal with highs generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s, though could see upper teens in coolest inland spots. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast continues to trend more optimistic overall, and now expecting VFR ceilings/visibility through the entire period as a cold front tracks across the region this morning and high pressure builds in behind the departing front tonight. While we generally expect VFR ceilings and vis, could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings generally between 07-13Z this morning with the greatest risk of seeing sub-VFR conditions along the OBX this morning. TAF terminals could also potentially go down for 2-3 hours before quickly returning to VFR conditions. Given low probability (<20%) have just left a SCT deck at 2.5 kft at all TAF terminals between 07-13Z. Once the front pushes offshore, expect clear skies across the region into Fri morning. Behind the front, breezy northwesterly winds will kick in with gusts to 20-25 kt possible especially across the coastal plain mid morning Thurs through Thurs evening before winds gradually begin to ease. Outlook: High pressure returns for Friday into Sat resulting in VFR conditions Fri and Sat. No changes to Sun as we continue to monitor for potential low pressure development and sub-VFR flight categories Sun, with a return to VFR conditions likely on Mon. && .MARINE... Currently seeing SW winds gusting to 25 knots across gulf stream waters, with around 15 knots or less across colder waters and inland sounds/rivers. Seas 4-5 ft along the Gulf Stream, 2-3 feet elsewhere. SW winds will increase to 10-25 knots tonight as gradients tighten between the low passing offshore and the approaching cold front. Strongest winds will be over the Gulf Stream in pre- frontal SW flow where gusts to around 30 kt will be possible. Could see some gusts to around 25 kt after midnight across the Pamlico Sound and waters north of Oregon Inlet. A cold front will then push across the waters Thursday morning with strong CAA developing Thursday afternoon and Thursday night and expect NW winds bring strong SCA conditions across all the waters. Guidance continues favoring sub-Gale gusts with the NW surge behind the front. Have issued a SCA for the remaining waters for strong W to NW post frontal winds Thursday and Thursday night. Conditions improve late in the week with high pressure briefly building into the area. This weekend, another cold front moves through, bringing elevated winds and seas once again. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for AMZ135-150-152- 154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for AMZ136-137. && $$ |
| #1257192 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:24 AM 15.Jan.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1218 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A few snow squalls possible Thursday. Gale Watches were converted to Gale Warnings for Thursday night into Friday as confidence increases in gusty winds impacting the waters late week. Some guidance continues to show the possibility for a more impactful storm late weekend into Monday. While a high impact storm remains an outlier, we continue to monitor this storm that could bring mixed precipitation and/or snow. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably mild tonight with a few rain showers. - Much colder and windy starting Thursday with perhaps a few rain/snow showers and even a localized snow squall. -Mostly dry Thursday but a few showers or snow squalls are possible. - Uncertainty remains whether we will see some mixed precipitation and/or snow this weekend. - Very cold air/below normal temperatures for the first half of the next work week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Unseasonably mild tonight with a few rain showers. Continued WAA ahead of a deep mid level trough will mean above average temperatures continue into the overnight hours. Thanks to the warm SW flow lows should only dip into the upper 30s to even low 40s in the urban centers. For reference, the average lows for mid January are in the low 20s. Under this warm advection pattern we`ll see the atmosphere saturate over the next several hours as the surface low lifts from western NY into northern New England overnight. Light rain showers overspread late afternoon into the evening, especially over western/central MA and CT with lesser coverage further south and east. The bulk of the precip lifts out by sunrise Thursday. Key Message 2...Much colder air moves into the region Thursday with falling temperatures and perhaps a rain/snow shower and even a few snow squalls. Following a sweeping cold front on Thursday temperatures will begin to drop steadily leading to an atypical diurnal trend with temps in the 30s (high terrain) and mid 40s early in the day, dropping into the 20s and low 30s respectively by late afternoon. This, as winds really begin to ramp up after noon as cold advection leads to better mixing while the pressure gradient increases between the deepening low as it exits and an incoming ridge of high pressure. By Thursday evening winds will be gusting 25 to 35 mph for most locations and this continues overnight through much of Friday. Considering 925mb temps drop from +2C Thursday afternoon to -11C Friday morning, we`ll see a drastic drop in temps accompanying these winds. Lows Friday morning will be 15 to 20F colder than the night previous, in the teens. However, the bigger story will be the frigid wind chill values, in the -5 to +5F range for most locations (as cold as -10F in the Berkshires). It will be a brief shot of arctic air, though, with a warmer airmass right behind it. Key Message 3...Mostly dry Thursday but a few showers or snow squalls are possible. When it comes to precipitation, the bulk of the region is dry Thu- Fri. The exception is a chance for some widely scattered snow showers or squalls that are possible during the afternoon and evening on Thursday. The highest likelihood is for western MA/CT in the afternoon, but there is potential that these could spread into eastern MA/RI by late evening. Guidance has continued to hint at this possibility as the likelihood increases of a confluence of steep lapse rates and a strong cold front with lingering low level moisture and gusty winds; the amount of moisture available continues to be the biggest question. While the NAM is the most bullish, other guidance does indicate a quick ramp up of the snow squall parameter and even some weak CAPE as that front moves through. The NAM, GFS, and Canadian models all show 60-80 J/kg of surface based CAPE. accompanying that front. KEY MESSAGE 4...Uncertainty remains whether we will see some mixed precipitation and/or snow this weekend. The latest deterministic GFS was along the western edge of the solution envelope, with the Canadian on the eastern edge. All told this provides an error range of nearly 500 miles just between these two sources. The ensembles showed similar uncertainty. Cluster analysis showed the most favored solutions is for a storm track near to just south of our region. Thus, significant uncertainty in the details remains. Kept a mention of the precipitation in the forecast for sometime between Saturday into Sunday night, mainly towards the southeast coast of New England. With such large differences in the guidance, focusing on a singular deterministic model run is not recommended at this time. We expect to have greater clarity in the outcomes for this weekend over the next 36-48 hours. KEY MESSAGE 5...Very cold air/below normal temperatures for the first half of the next work week. Above normal Saturday anticipated to trend to near normal values for Sunday, followed by below normal temperatures by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High -greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Rest of Tonight...Moderate confidence in timing of IFR conditions. MVFR and IFR conditions continue through the overnight hours. A few showers tonight thru 09z ending from W to E. S winds generally 10 knots or less. Thursday...High confidence. Low end MVFR to IFR conditions Thursday morning becoming VFR by the afternoon. Dry on the whole but a few spot rain/snow showers are possible, even a localized snow squall across the interior. SW winds shifting to the W later in the day with gusts increasing to between 20 and 30 knots. Thursday night...Moderate confidence. VFR. Gusty W winds continue overnight gusting 20 to 30 kts. A few quick hitting snow showers may impact terminals in the first half of the night, but confidence in placement and timing of these is low. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Friday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance RA, slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. This afternoon through Thursday night...High Confidence. Seas 2-5 feet persist tonight across the southern outer- waters. A strong cold front crosses the region early Thu allowing for winds to pick back up as the day wears along with SW winds shifting more to the W with 25 to 30 knot gust Thu afternoon and gusting to 35 kt by Thursday night. Seas also increase to 6 to 9 feet on the southern waters Thursday into Thursday night, 4 to 6 feet on the eastern waters. Outlook /Friday through Monday/... Friday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of snow. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ230- 236. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ230-236. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ231-251. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ232>235-237. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ250- 254>256. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
