Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199530 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995
Atlantic is mostly quiet again, but two waves approaching from Africa are being monitored.
|
Show Area Forecast Discussion Selection: |
| #1248636 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:39 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 824 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions possible into Saturday && .UPDATE... Pattern is slow to change with upper ridging from the SE Gulf into the Upper Mississippi River Valley keeping very dry air over the region. The large area of surface high pressure stretches down the Eastern US with tightening pressure gradient over the FL Peninsula to produce occasionally gusty NE-E winds especially over marine waters to produce hazardous conditions, otherwise a dry night and comfortable Fri morning temps. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Dry VRF conditions through the period with generally light NE winds and a FEW strato cu around 04k ft. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will be the only (relatively) interesting thing in the forecast for the next week. Over the past few days, models were showing a slight chance for some showers, but these have continued to back off on the amount of moisture available, so for now, we will show barely a rain chance for the very northern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. High pressure builds in over the southeast behind the boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast to east winds continue for the next few days, increasing to exercise caution levels each night. No headlines are expected during the daytime hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 70 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248635 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 806 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches on Friday - Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon - Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact Area: St. Johns River Basin from Downtown Jacksonville Southward && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 806 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through at least 05Z Friday. MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected to develop at VQQ towards 06Z and may persist through around sunrise. Brief periods of MVFR visibilities will be possible at the GNV, JAX and CRG terminals around sunrise, but confidence was too low to indicate prevailing or TEMPO conditions at this time. VFR conditions will then prevail beginning shortly after sunrise at the regional terminals. Northeasterly surface winds will remain sustained at 5-10 knots overnight at SGJ, while east-northeasterly surface winds diminish to 5 knots or less at the rest of the terminals. Surface winds will shift to east-northeasterly at SGJ towards noon, with sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots after 16Z. Northeasterly surface winds will develop by 14Z elsewhere, with speeds increasing to 5-10 knots by 16Z. Surface winds will then shift to east-northeasterly while increasing to around 10 knots by 18Z Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Clear skies and northeasterly winds continue today, it may be gusty at times this afternoon and evening near the Atlantic coast. High temperatures will continue to climb into the lower to mid 80s inland, and a few degrees cooler near the coast and St. Johns river basin. Tonight, lows over inland southeast Georgia will dip into the mid 50s, with lows in the 60s elsewhere. Shallow, localized patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Surface high pressure ridge of about 1018-1022 mb will be over VA and NC on Friday and shift offshore through Saturday night. Aloft, a prominent mid level ridge from the Gulf into the TN Valley will move east while weakening as a shortwave trough digs into the central CONUS. As the surface high pressure ridge moves by to the north, our local wind field will veer from northeast to east and then southeast through Sat and Sat night. Very limited moisture remains with PWATs of below 1 inch (about the 20th percentile compared to climatology) to continue the stretch of dry weather, with pleasant highs near average with skies mostly clear. Lows expected to be below average and chilly for Saturday morning with lows the middle 50s inland, but lower 60s at the coast. Our forecast lows not as cold Saturday night due to the veering/warm advection flow and some increased moisture as the next frontal boundary approach from the northwest. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The weak cold front approaches from the northwest on Sunday with a mean southerly low level flow. This should boost temps to above normal in the mid to upper 80s. Moisture and dynamics are limited ahead of the front so we only have slight chances for the area late Sunday into Sunday night. The front expected to push through the area Sunday night with weak high pressure building behind it on Monday. The next front will approach the area Tuesday and this one will be even drier as it moves through Tuesday night/early Wed. General high pressure again over the area again Wed-Thu. Pretty dry airmass moving in behind the front on Monday with PWATs again at only the 25th percentile. Have slightly lowered NBM guidance dewpoints Mon- Tue due to abnormal dry air. Max temperatures will trend a little closer to normal or just above normal Monday through Thursday. We could near the record high at Gainesville on Tuesday with some upper 80s possible across inland northeast FL. With a dry airmass prevailing and relatively light winds during the overnight periods, low temperatures will be below normal. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Elevated seas offshore will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through at least Friday morning. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southeastward towards our local waters on Saturday, allowing winds and seas to diminish. A weakening cold front will then approach our region on Sunday night, possibly developing a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Southwesterly winds will briefly strengthen ahead of this boundary, with winds shifting to northerly in the wake of this frontal passage by early Monday. Rip currents: High rip current risk continues at the northeast Florida beaches Friday, with a moderate risk a the southeast Georgia beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm and dry weather will continue the next few days which does not help given the abnormally dry areas, especially inland areas from Suwannee Valley northward into southeast GA. Min RH values will drop well into the 30s Fri and Sat afternoons across inland southeast GA, with some recovery Sunday ahead of a cool front, then only to bottom out again Monday and Tuesday into the 30s. Some patchy high daytime dispersions possible the next few days with patchy early morning shallow fog possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Minor flooding during the next high tide this evening along the St. Johns river south of downtown Jacksonville is likely. Confidence in minor flooding is high enough for a timing extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory for these locations to cover Friday`s high tide cycles. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 54 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 67 78 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 60 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132- 137-138-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1248632 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 734 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday night - Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters and along the immediate coast through tonight with dry conditions forecast through this weekend and into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Current-Tonight... A weak surface boundary passes east central Florida late today and into tonight as a "backdoor" cold front. Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters this evening and overnight, and a few may wander onshore at times. Otherwise, mostly dry. Breezy northeast winds this afternoon fall to around 5- 10 mph tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range the mid to upper 60s across the interior with upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Friday-Saturday... Surface high pressure stretches across the eastern U.S., maintaining dry conditions locally. Breezy northeast winds continue Friday with flow slackening and shifting out of the east on Saturday. Cannot rule out a few stray onshore- moving showers throughout the period, but expecting PoPs to remain mostly dry. High temperatures mostly range the low 80s each day, but some areas across the far interior may touch the mid 80s. Cooler morning low temperatures arrive Saturday with values in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Portions of northwest Volusia and northern Lake may even fall into the upper 50s Saturday morning. Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean. Sunday-Wednesday... High pressure is pushed offshore as the next cold front moves into the eastern U.S. Limited moisture returns locally late this weekend and into early next week. The forecast remains mostly dry through the extended forecast as the front washes out and slows south of the area. High pressure and dry air builds in wake of the frontal boundary with a second front forecast to approach the area again mid week. Have kept no mentionable rain chances with this forecast package. Highs climb a few degrees above normal across the interior through Tuesday, reaching the upper 80s in most spots. More seasonable temperatures are forecast near and east of I-95, spreading the mid 80s. Sunday will be the coolest morning of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Lows more widely range the mid to upper 60s Monday and into mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast winds around 15-20 kts will maintain poor to hazardous seas through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters (20-60 nm), expanding to the nearshore Treasure Coast (0-20 nm) waters after 8PM for seas of 6-8 ft. Small craft should exercise caution across nearshore Volusia and nearshore Brevard (0-20 nm) for seas up to 6 ft through Friday. Winds veer east around 10 kts into Saturday, further veering south-southeast on Sunday. Seas of 4-5 ft become more favorable on Saturday before a longer period swell briefly builds seas back to 6 ft across parts of the Gulf Stream on Sunday. A cold front approaches the local waters early next week, washing out as is passes the local waters. Rounds of isolated showers will be possible in onshore flow through Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 732 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions prevailing. Isolated showers possible overnight along the coast, with VCSH included at the TAF sites there. Drier air towards sunrise should limit development into the morning hours, with dry conditions through Friday. Breezy NE winds slackening overnight, then once again increasing to around 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts along the coast, by Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 68 83 64 83 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 71 81 68 81 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 71 81 67 81 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 65 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 67 82 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 68 82 64 83 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 70 81 66 81 / 20 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1248631 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the northwest will usher in the coolest air since Spring through the end of the work week. The high will shift offshore ahead of a front over the weekend bringing a gradual warm-up and low rain chances. More high pressure will bring cooler, drier weather back for early next week. && .UPDATE... Adjusted overnight lows slightly milder. Winds just off the deck, N-NE 15 to 20 kt overnight, should keep sfc winds active just enough to prevent calm conditions and any widespread radiational cooling. Although, some locations may briefly observe calm winds for up to 1 or 2 hrs after sunset before resuming. Lows could drop into the 30s in those prone colder spots. The dry conditions will result in 5 degree or higher sfc dewpoint depressions. Sfc dew will have a difficult time forming overnight. Otherwise, remainder of the fcst remains in tact. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows chilly high pressure way up in Michigan, with the fingers of it extending all the way down into the Carolinas. Plenty of dry air and subsidence have paved the way for a cloudless day. Low-level cold air advection has limited temperatures to only the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, perfect for the pumpkin patch. Clear skies continue through tonight. Boundary layer winds don`t appear to calm down completely, but they do slow down considerably, opening up some nice radiational cooling tonight. Widespread lows in the low-to-mid 40s tonight for most. The peat soils across parts of Pender and Bladen Counties have already started to show off their propensity to cool down pretty quick. There is a Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) in Back Island, NC that got down to 44 degrees last night, and I`m expecting it to get even chillier tonight. Even with boundary layer winds very slightly elevated, I went for lows in the mid 30s around the Back Island area. Keep an eye on the hourly observations from this site here: raws.dri.edu/cgi- bin/rawMAIN.pl?laNBAC. Friday looks gorgeous, with a nearly cloudless sky once again. Highs should be a degree or two cooler than what we`ve seen this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The mid level pattern will be under transition during the weekend as a weak trough moves across from west to east. Surface high pressure will be replaced by a decent southwest flow and eventually a cold front moving across late in the period. Pops/moisture have decreased with the latest guidance and some areas may see conditions remain dry. A decent warmup is in the offing with the southwest flow as highs in the middle to upper 70s approaching 80 in some areas Sunday are expected. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Outside of a fast moving/weak system bringing a slight chance of showers Tuesday the extended period looks dry and seasonable for temperatures at least early on. Somewhat cooler temperatures somewhat similar to what is occurring now are expected later in the period. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR to dominate the 24 hr 00Z Taf Issuance Period. SKC conditions thru the period with only FEW/SCT cirrus possible during daylight Fri. No fog or low stratus concerns this period. Winds generally N-NNE 5 kt or less overnight, could briefly observe calm conditions at ILM and LBT up to a few hrs after sunset. Otherwise, center of sfc high to drop south, reaching the Eastern Carolinas during Fri. Looking at winds becoming NW-N around 8 kt during Fri aftn. Extended Outlook...VFR and dry conditions to dominate. Low confidence for restrictions associated with isolated showers and ceilings Sun night into Mon morning. This due to a surface CFP. && .MARINE... Through Friday... Persistent NNE winds at 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible through midday Friday. Pressure gradient loosens slightly by Friday afternoon, and sustained winds decrease to 8-10 kts, backing slightly to the NNW. Seas at 2-4 ft come down a tad to 2-3 ft. Friday Night through Wednesday...A light northerly flow will be in place through Saturday followed by decent and somewhat stronger southwest winds through early Monday. With wind speeds rising to a range of 20-25 knots seas eclipsing the six foot small craft advisory criteria are increasingly likely at least for a few hours. Quick transitions highlight conditions next week as an offshore flow quickly turns to southwest Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding possible during the early morning high tides, mainly along the immediate coast of Southeast NC this weekend into early next week. The Lower Cape Fear River, from Wilmington south, will potentially observe minor coastal flooding during each high tide cycle Fri thru the weekend and into early next week. The minor flooding will be aided by the higher astronomical tides associated with the approaching new moon, occurring on Oct 21st at 825am EDT. Runoff from the weekends rainfall from upstream will also aid the minor flooding along the lower Cape Fear River. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1248630 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 727 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in across ENC in the wake of last night`s backdoor cold front. High will gradually anchor over the East Coast into this weekend ahead of the next cold frontal passage late this weekend into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Following last night`s cold frontal passage, pressure gradient remains pinched between high pressure currently centered across the upper Great Lakes region and an area of low pressure well offshore of the East Coast. This has brought a renewed northerly surge of winds today, with cold air advection limiting high temperatures to the mid-to- upper 60s across ENC under clear skies. Winds will calm inland tonight, leading to strong radiational cooling that will allow temps to drop to the low 40s inland (upper-40s to mid-50s along the coast). Some sheltered spots may even briefly dip into the upper 30s tonight. Dry conditions will preclude any threat of fog development overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Conditions will be chilly to start the day on Friday, with temperatures expected to be hovering in the low-to-mid 40s around 8 AM. A cool and dry airmass will remain in place, allowing temperatures to climb only to the mid 60s under sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds will continue but gradually relax through the day as high pressure continues to build in and gradually becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thu... Key Messages... - High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend with above normal temps returning. - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving and likely moisture- starved front moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Sat/... As of 730 PM Thu...Very benign flying conditions over the next 24 hours as high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends southward across the Carolinas under amplified mid-level ridging. Airmass is very dry at almost all levels and skies will remain clear tonight. Thus, despite dew point depressions cratering towards zero inland no fog is expected tonight. OBX terminals will be breezier with pinched pressure gradient keeping north winds at 15-20 kt. Similar flying conditions tomorrow, although winds will be weaker as high centers itself overhead. Gustier conditions most likely closer to sounds and seas with gusts 15-20 kt. Likely to see an uptick in high clouds tomorrow evening as moisture is pulled northward ahead of a large and complex mid-level low over the western CONUS. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 2 PM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday, and there could be some temporary flying restrictions as a result. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Steady northerly breeze persists across area waters with winds 15-25 knots and gusts of 20-30 kts. SCAs remain in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers. High-res guidance continues to advertise another northerly surge late this evening before winds begin to relax late tonight. Expect SCAs to remain in place for sounds, the Alligator River, and southern coastal waters through late morning/early afternoon tomorrow. Seas have come up again with the renewed northerly surge behind last night`s cold frontal passage, with waves of 6-9 feet across the coastal waters. South of Lookout, nearshore waters remain somewhat sheltered from northerly winds, with waves of 3-5 feet. Periods generally shorten through the day, with 10-11 sec early becoming 7-8 sec from N to S as wind waves begin to dominate. Waves begin to subside through the day on Friday, but lingering 6-footers will lead to SCAs persisting into Friday night for the central and northern coastal waters. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 2 PM Thu... Key Messages - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday and Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front Winds continue to weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain. Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North Atlantic. Seas could increase to 5-7 ft for much of the marine waters, but confidence is low on the exact timing and strength of this swell. Seas will increase to 6-10 ft Sunday as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 2 PM Thu...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue through Friday keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday. Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204- 205. Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158-230- 231. && $$ |
| #1248629 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 720 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday, as high pressure as moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend, as the high slides offshore, with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather Monday through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 720 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Chilly tonight with diminishing winds inland. Patchy frost will be possible into early Friday morning in the Piedmont. - Cool/dry weather for Friday. This evening, high pressure (~1023 mb) was centered over the Great Lakes. Drier/cooler air continues to filter into the area with a breezy N wind continuing along the coast. Winds have already begun to diminish inland. Temperatures as of 710 PM were in the low-mid 50s for most with dew points in the upper 30s to mid 40s. High pressure becomes centered over the central Appalachians later tonight into Friday. Diminishing winds are expected tonight, with the exception being near the coast where it will stay mixed and breezy overnight. Patchy frost is possible (especially on elevated surfaces and the typically cooler spots) over our far NW/W locations early Friday morning where winds are able to decouple. However, given marginal temps and the potential for winds to remain just high enough (<5 kt inland but not calm) to prevent proper decoupling, opted against a Frost Advisory. Lows tonight are expected to range from the mid 30s across the NW Piedmont, upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the inland CWA and inland MD Eastern Shore, and upper 40s to around 50 closer to the coast. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and a sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry Friday night, a little warmer Saturday. - Warm on Sunday ahead of a cold front. High pressure becomes centered south of the area Friday night into early Saturday. In addition, there will be an increase in high clouds Friday night east of an upper ridge axis. This keeps temperatures warmer Friday night, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s (inland). The coolest temperatures will likely be across interior SE VA and NE NC where it stays clear later into the night. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and turning a little warmer, as the upper level ridge axis shifts east to the coast later in the day, and off the coast by Sunday morning. Winds will be light enough for some onshore flow at the coast where highs range in the upper 60s, with low 70s inland. Increasing southerly flow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid to upper 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies (increasing clouds late). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Best chance for rain is Sunday night, followed by mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures next week. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. The latest 12Z/16 models continue to show differences with respect to the evolution of the system, the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the potential for secondary surface low development compared to the GFS/CMC. The associated ensembles reflect these differences in potential rainfall chances with the EPS being the only one that shows any chance for 0.50"+ of rainfall Sunday night/early Monday (and even the EPS has trended drier than 24 hrs ago). As noted above, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negative tilt as it reaches the western slope of the mountains, which may cause the precip to split over the area and/or struggle east of the Appalachians. It is also possible that if the ECMWF solution is correct, we may see a few gusty showers Sunday night and perhaps even a rumble of thunder (though instability is lacking and the better dynamics are further to the north). Behind the front, temperatures will be near to a little below normal, with mainly dry conditions expected Mon-Tue, with another upper trough forecast to become centered over the NE CONUS by midweek. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 710 PM EDT Thursday... Clear skies persist through the 00z TAF period across the region. Winds remain NW 5-10 kt through tonight across most of the region with 10 kt winds at ECG and ORF. Additionally, model guidance shows ORF continuing to gust to ~20 kt tonight through Friday. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through Saturday. S/SW winds increase on Sunday to ~15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Dry weather returns Monday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Colder and drier air over the region brings solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday and Saturday with improving marine conditions. - Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into Monday with the next frontal passage. Strong 1028mb high pressure remains situated over the Great Lakes region. A dry cold front from a low pressure system well off the NE coast has filtered in drier, colder air. This has mixed well over the warmer water temperatures causing elevated winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay. Winds over the rivers have been slightly under performing with only an occasional gust to 20 kt. Have decided to leave the SCA through this evening, as some obs show 20 kt gusts, but the advisory may be cancelled early. Otherwise, SCA are in effect for the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River through Friday with the coastal waters extended now through early Saturday. Winds will slightly increase late tonight as a secondary surge of cool air advects over the waters. The local wind probabilities remain low for the potential of gale-force gust tonight and have maintained gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters and upper bay. NW winds will then decrease early Friday morning throughout the day to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the bay and 15- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by Friday afternoon. Light winds 5-10 kt shifting directions are expected Saturday. Waves and seas are currently 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft, respectively. They will remain elevated overnight and begin to slowly decline on Friday to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-6 ft in the coastal waters. Seas offshore are expected to stay at or above 5 ft into early Saturday morning. The SCA has been extended to 1 AM Saturday morning, but there is still a chance that the waves could decline quicker than anticipated. Later this weekend, a low pressure system will move north of the area passing an associated cold front through the local waters Sunday into Monday. Another period of SCA conditions is likely as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of and behind the cold front. Local wind probabilities currently have up to 100% chance of gust to 25 kt over the coastal waters and 50-70% over the bay. Not currently expected any gale-force gusts as probs are less than 20% across all waters for this time period. Waves and seas will additionally increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1248628 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A mid-level shortwave is moving through coastal Texas today leading to a narrow streak of clouds with minimal rain due to PWATs maxing out at ~1.5". This shortwave will be quickly exiting the region by Friday, giving the Victoria Crossroads low chances for showers (15-25%) and locations in southeast Texas better chances for rainfall. Meanwhile, an upper- level trough will be pushing through east through the Rockies and pushing across the Great Plains Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, a "cold" front will try to make it through South Texas, but like previous frontal passages, any significant drops in temperature is not expected. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads will have the best chance for dewpoint temperatures to drop enough to allow minimum RH values to bottom out as low as 30%. Weak winds will limit the fire risk but definitely worth monitoring should the forecast Min RH value trend down on Sunday. As we start the upcoming work week, ridge influence creeps back in pushing most of the weather systems generally north of Texas. For this reason, temperatures are still looking to remain above normal through mid-week before the next whisper of a frontal passage creeps near South Texas again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this period. We will once again have the potential for brief MVFR VIS toward morning for ALI and VCT. Have prob30 mentioned for showers at VCT. Outside chance of a brief shower at CRP, but not great enough chance to include in TAF there. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early today (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25- 35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Min RH values will generally stay above 35% for the next several days. Drier air filters into the northern Brush Country and portions of the Victoria Crossroads on Sunday leading to forecast Min RH`s dropping to as low as 30%. While the Energy Release Components will remain above the 50th percentile for locations including and east of the Brush Country, weak winds will limit the fire risk. Rain chances will remain low through Friday and any rain that does fall will generally be under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 88 71 91 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 65 87 69 91 / 0 40 0 10 Laredo 69 93 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 66 92 68 95 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 73 87 75 89 / 10 30 10 10 Cotulla 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 67 91 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248627 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 717 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Ocean effect clouds linger into early tonight over eastern MA, along with a low chance for an ocean effect shower or two over the Cape and Islands early tonight. A warming trend kicks off Friday as the colder airmass starts to move offshore. The pattern turns more unsettled going into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Chilly and breezy overnight Dry conditions expected to continue through tonight with a low chance of an ocean effect shower or two out towards Cape Cod and the Islands. Latest high-res guidance indicates the best chance will be generally after 8 PM tonight, decreasing as the night goes on. Continued breezy NW winds will continue through the night, but the lack of mixing should keep winds the elevated winds at 850 mb from coming to the surface over the interior. Gustier conditions can be expected over the Cape and Islands tonight as mixing will take longer to end, allowing 35 knot winds at 850 mb to mix down. Gusts approaching and exceeding 30 mph remain possible there into tonight. With continued NW winds overnight, it may feel cooler than the actual air temperature. Despite lows in the upper 40s tonight over the Cape and Islands, it may feel closer to the 30s with the wind chill. Over the interior, a similar story: breezy NW winds will continue, making temperatures in the 30s feel more like the 20s when accounting for wind chill. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Winds diminish a bit in the afternoon * Dry and slightly warmer Friday Not much has changed from the previous forecast. The cold pool over the region will shift more offshore tomorrow as an upper level ridge begins to build in behind it. Height rises and approaching surface high pressure will allow temperatures aloft to recover slightly, getting to just between 5-8C at 925 mb by Friday afternoon. Daytime highs will improve from the mid 50s to the low 60s for much of southern New England. With high pressure approaching and the upper level trough moving more offshore, wind gusts will start to drop off in the afternoon, though it will remain breezy with good mixing. Forecast soundings show 850 mb winds dropping below 30 knots in the afternoon over the interior. Breezy conditions will continue to diminish going into Friday night with clearing skies. With winds decreasing, wind chill will not be as much of a factor overnight. Low temperatures expected to be in the 30s for much of the region once again with the Cape and Islands in the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry weekend with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun in valley locations * Looking unsettled next week as multiple shortwaves move through the region. Details... This Weekend... Guidance shows a 576dm ridge building over the northeast CONUS by Saturday afternoon. This ridging will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. 850mb temps increase to +7- +11C through the weekend. Model soundings show modest mixing so temperatures will be somewhat mild, rising into mid 60s on Saturday, and perhaps warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially in interior river valleys on Sunday. Next Week... Still seeing good agreement amongst global models in a relatively deep shortwave trough moving in from the Great Lakes to start the week. Main disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF is the shape and orientation of the trough. GFS has a much more progressive, postively-tiled trough while the EURO wants to cut it off from the mean zonal flow. In terms of sensible weather impacts, the GFS solution would result in more of a quick-hitting area of showers and perhaps a low-topped thunderstorm or two along the cold front Monday afternoon before things quickly cleared out. A more prolonged rain event would be possible if the EURO solution panned out, but details will be ironed out in future forecast updates. Regardless, the NBM has increasing POPs Monday morning, peaking during the afternoon before decreasing in the evening. Looking at the large-scale pattern for Tues and Weds, a much more significant trough begins to dig over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Although it is still fairly early, ensemble guidance suggests the trough becomes negatively-tilted as heights build over the western CONUS. Temperatures next week should be somewhat cooler with more in the way of cloud cover with highs in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update... Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR with pockets of MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tonight. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Confidence not high enough to include over coastal terminals. Tomorrow...High Confidence. VFR with pockets of MVFR possibly lingering over the Cape and Islands. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. Gusts expected to diminish in the afternoon hours as strong winds aloft start to move more offshore. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light NW winds around 5 kts or less for much of southern New England; around 10 kts over the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in LLWS. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Chance for LLWS if decoupling occurs tonight. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. Gale-force winds will last through tonight, ending Friday morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale-force winds are not expected after Friday morning, winds will remain around 25-30 knots through Friday afternoon, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight, which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+ feet. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248624 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 711 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low rain chances (20-30%) are forecast for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Little to no significant impacts are anticipated. - Drought continues to worsen across the area with little beneficial rain on the horizon. The continued dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure continues to dominate our forecast through Saturday with warm days and comfortable nights continuing. A surge of drier air moves in from the east and northeast tomorrow afternoon, which will help reinforce our tranquil weather. Highs will continue to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. PWATs increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches, but the main limiting factor will be lift. The parent trough will be well to our north over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which limits support for showers and storms. What most likely will happen is a band of showers and storms along or just ahead of the front will weaken as it moves into our area. Rain chances are highest over our Central Time Zone counties at 30-40%, decreasing to the east. An isolated storm or two is possible, though instability is rather limited with deep layer shear topping out at 25-30 kt. Drier air moves in behind the front heading into Monday. Dew points will drop into the 40s and 50s on Monday with a 20-40% chance that dew points will fall below 40. Another cold front will move through on Tuesday with moisture being even more scant. Yet another surge of cooler, drier air will move into the area to round out next week. Highs will still be in the low to mid 80s through Tuesday, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Behind the front, highs will drop into the 70s on Wednesday with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Much like last night, MVFR vsbys are possible from 08-13Z at VLD with clear skies and light to calm winds. A lower probability of occurrence at TLH warrants a tempo for MVFR vsbys from 10-13Z. The rest of the TAF sites will remain VFR through the overnight. VFR is expected at all TAF sites after 13Z with light east to southeast winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through Saturday with high pressure to our north. In this regime, nocturnal easterly surges could bring some localized cautionary conditions to our far offshore waters. Winds turn more southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Only widely scattered showers and an isolated storm are expected with the front Sunday. A brief bout of northerly to northeasterly moderate breezes is expected Monday before clocking around out of the east to southeast again Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with east to southeast transport winds around 5-10 mph. Dispersions will generally be good, though some high dispersions are possible in the Alabama zones Saturday where mixing heights will be highest. A cold front moves into and through the area Sunday with a low chance (10- 30%) of a wetting rain. Otherwise, dispersions increase Sunday with southwesterly transport winds of 10-20 mph. Drier air follows in its wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Sunday`s cold front doesn`t look as promising for widespread beneficial rain, unfortunately. In fact, the 90th percentile is only a quarter to half an inch, and most likely, rain totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is expected beyond then through the end of the forecast period. This dry weather continues to spell bad news for drought concerns. The latest US Drought Monitor now shows expanding extreme drought across parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into south Georgia. For more information on the local drought conditions, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 66 84 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 84 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 58 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 59 82 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 60 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 79 68 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248625 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 614 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Upper ridge over the area to keep us on the dry side over the short term. - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend as a result of increasing moisture and a front. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday for the NW part of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Relatively dry conditions expected over the short term as an upper ridge currently centered over the ArkLaMiss States remains near the CWA. Going into the weekend, we will see it shift off to the southeast into the Gulf as a trough pushes northeastward over the western CONUS. At the surface, we have an area of high pressure currently over the Great Lakes Region, which is projected to continue pushing off southeastward. This will allow for the return of southeasterly flow tomorrow, then southerly flow will become dominant early in the weekend. Nevertheless, the short term will remain quiet as it sets up for a slightly more active long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 We start off the long term slightly more active, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms. We have a Marginal Risk for severe storms across nearly all of our MS counties and in our LA parishes along/north of the I-10 and west of the I-55. Despite the setup in the short term, we will not really see a significant increase in PWATs on Saturday, as they will be floating at and below the 75th percentile. However, going into Sunday, we could see PWATs get to the 90th percentile and higher. This, along with a weak cold front, will be the driver for showers and storms this weekend. Past FROPA, a high pressure will quickly move into and away from the region, eventually centering itself over the deep south by early next week. We could see another weak front, along with isolated chances of showers for the remainder of the week with the lingering moisture; however, nothing significant is expected. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 All terminals VFR at issuance. Really the only forecast issue is potential for radiation fog toward sunrise. Quite a spread in visibility forecast guidance. Have used CONSShort in the 09z-15z period as a compromise with IFR or lower visibilities at/near KMSY/KNEW/KHUM/KASD. Conditions should improve quickly by 15z, with VFR the remainder of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but do not expect any prolonged periods where winds exceed 20 knots. further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 63 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 68 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248626 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Dry and warm conditions will persist through Saturday, with increasing rain chances for Sunday morning. Dry conditions return for next week, along with cooler temperatures. - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by Friday evening, with a high risk expected on Saturday and Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - Very dry conditions on top of an ongoing and expanding drought may lead to fire weather concerns for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The axis of an amplified upper ridge, currently extending from the northern Gulf up through the north central US, will push to the east over the next few days. This is in response to an upper- level trough that will dig southeastward across the CONUS over the weekend. This trough should push to the east of the local region by Sunday morning, helping to establish a northwesterly flow pattern aloft in its wake for the start of next week. At the surface, an associated cold front will push through the area on Sunday. Showers and storms (potentially in the form of an MCS) will likely be ongoing upstream over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the front and associated MCS approaches our area Saturday night, most guidance suggests that the best forcing should begin to lift away from the region. Also factoring in meager downstream instability due to the overnight timing and poor lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for the MCS to weaken prior reaching our northwestern counties. It should be noted that the 00z and 06z ensemble runs of the ECMWF did suggest a slightly deeper trough which could help to maintain the MCS just a bit longer for it to possibly reach our CWA. If this solution were to pan out, then the primary concern would be gusty winds for areas north of Highway 84 and west of I-65 during the early morning hours on Sunday. At this time, the potential for this is rather low. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind the cold front. We remain dry through Monday night before a stronger cold front passes through on Tuesday. With a lack of any meaningful moisture return, only a few isolated showers are possible as this second front moves through. We dry out once again for midweek as high pressure builds in to our north. Highs will remain very warm for this time of year through Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. After the first front passes through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will be knocked down by a couple degrees; ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs lower again for Wednesday and Thursday after the second front passes, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will follow a similar pattern. Lows will remain mild through Saturday night, with temperatures only dropping into the 60s. After the first front, lows decrease into the 50s inland and low 60s along the coast for Sunday and Monday nights. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights decrease even further after the second front, with some interior areas dropping into the mid to upper 40s. The rip current risk remains low through Friday afternoon, increasing to a moderate risk Friday evening. A High Risk of rip currents follow for this weekend, lowering back down to moderate by Monday. Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much of the local region. Although scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday morning, overall rainfall totals are expected to remain below a half inch, offering little relief. After the Sunday and Tuesday fronts pass through, guidance indicates that much drier air will push in, likely bringing afternoon humidity values down to below 30 percent for several days next week (Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Although winds appear to remain rather weak, the dry conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could lead to fire-related concerns next week. /96 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions this evening will be followed by patchy fog, potentially thick in some spots, developing late tonight over the southern portion of the area. The fog dissipates by mid Friday morning leaving VFR conditions. Winds become calm or light and variable this evening, then a southeasterly flow near 10 knots develops on Friday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light southerly to southeasterly flow continues through tonight, with winds gradually increasing on Friday and Saturday, along with building seas. Winds shift to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Moderate offshore flow develops Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front and becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 68 83 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 59 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 10 Camden 60 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 60 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248623 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher today, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist into early next. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Isolated activity expected today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The warm and mostly dry pattern continues today, with temperatures generally skewing about 5 degrees warmer than average. That translates to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s, with a few spots up around 90 degrees. However, a plume of higher PWATs is pushing towards the region, increasing atmospheric moisture over SE Texas. Isolated showers, primarily at the coast and offshore, are expected today as a result. Moisture levels increase further on Friday and Saturday ahead of an eastward progressing deep-layer trough in the mid/upper levels and a frontal boundary at the surface. This should result in a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days. PoPs generally average 30-40% across the CWA both days. We cannot rule out isolated stronger thunderstorms on Saturday. For now, the best dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be north of our region. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our northern Piney Woods counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. The flow pattern for next week appears to be somewhat amplified and progressive, with the SE Texas atmosphere being intermittently influenced why eastward moving troughs and ridges. We find ourselves on the backside of the aforementioned mid/upper trough on Sunday, before a ridge takes hold late Sunday into Monday. But this may be short-lived, as another trough looks to eject eastward from the Rockies into central CONUS by Tuesday. A frontal boundary on Tuesday could bring isolated to scattered showers to the region. Afternoon temperatures expected to remain in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. However, we could be talking about some of the "coolest" air of the season by the second half of the week. But by "coolest" I mean highs mostly in the low/mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. So the current predicted cooldown is more of a reversion to normal for a couple days. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with SE winds between 5-10kt will persist through this evening. While the southeasterly winds will continue overnight, they will likely drop to below 5kt. The lighter winds and increase in moisture will allow for a period of MVFR CIGs to develop of around 2000ft late tonight into early Friday morning with some patchy fog possible as well. The northern terminals (CLL, UTS, and CXO) may even experience period of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700ft if winds become calm. These MVFR to possibly IFR conditions will dissipate by the mid-morning as the southeasterly winds increase back to 6-10kt, which will persist through the rest of the day. There will also be a chance of isolated morning showers at the coast that expand inland through the afternoon. Have include PROB30s for CXO southwards, generally between 17-22z (a little earlier at GLS and a little later at CXO), for -SHRA. Isolated moderate to heavy showers (and an isolated thunderstorm) will be possible south of I-10 that could result in temporary category degradations due to reduced visibility or a period of lower CIGs. Activity will wane in the evening, but expect the chances to return on Saturday. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light to moderate east to southeast winds should increase somewhat as we head into Friday and Saturday. Winds today are expected to average 7-12 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Isolated to widely scattered showers expected as well. For Friday into Saturday morning, winds are expected to average 12-17 knots with Gulf seas building to 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to decrease somewhat while gradually veering to the south and south-southwest on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions expected in the front`s wake on Sunday, with winds veering from the west to north, northeast, east, then southeast between Sunday morning and Monday morning. Southeasterly flow is expected to persist until a cold front brings the potential for moderate northeasterly winds (15-20 knots) by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Atmospheric conditions are generally improving regarding the fire weather risk. This is due to higher moisture levels bringing higher relatively humidity. That being said, vegetation remains dry, providing plenty of fuel. Therefore, the fire risk remains enhanced despite the improving atmospheric conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 87 69 92 / 10 20 0 30 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 90 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 85 / 30 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248622 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 649 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through the rest of this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday, followed by another area of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Another very quiet night on tap across southeast SC and southeast GA. Dry high pressure will remain in control, and once the few diurnal cumulus that developed this afternoon dissipate, clear skies will prevail. Tonight will bring the coolest temperatures we have seen in quite some time. Inland portions of southeast SC are expected to dip into the upper 40s, with low 50s everywhere else just inland of the coastal corridor. Such values would be the coolest the area has been since roughly mid-April. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday through Saturday: The center of a 1020 mb high will build across the region during the late week. On Friday, a weak H5 ridge is forecast to ripple across the region. Sky conditions should remain clear/sunny through Friday. Given a cool start to the day, 40s and 50s, afternoon temperatures are forecast to peak in the lower 70s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 70s across SE GA. The H5 ridge will flatten with the weak axis shifting to the east Friday night into Saturday. HREF indicates that high clouds should gradually increase from the west as the ridge axis shifts over the Atlantic. The combination of thin high clouds, light to calm winds, and dry weather should result lows in the 50s, with pockets of upper 40s across portions of inland SC. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from the mid 70s across the CHS metro to around 80 across SE GA. On Sunday, near term guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the forecast area from the west. As the front approaches, return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen through the day. High temperatures should favor values between 80 to 85. It is possible that an isolated shower may arrive over SE GA by sunset on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models time a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance as trended drier with recent runs, this trend continued with the 12Z. Isolated showers are possible with the passage of the front, providing little to no measurable rainfall. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, remaining until another weak front approaches late Tuesday. Stronger high pressure is forecast to build across the region on Wednesday. Temperatures should begin the day in the 50s and warming into the 70s each day. Overall, the extended range forecast appears dry. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Saturday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will yield NNE winds through tonight, generally around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to increase, with some 6 ft seas entering the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting tonight for the 6 ft seas. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will generally weaken through Friday into Friday night. As a result, 6 ft seas over the outer GA waters should generally subside, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south-southeast on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing across the waters Monday morning. A few gusts around 25 kts may briefly occur across the nearshore Charleston County waters and outer GA waters Sunday night. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. Low risk along the GA and SC coasts on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the early evening high tide cycle Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248621 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 529 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week. Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas. Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA closer to Corpus Christi. Other guidance suggests that the front will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure settles in behind the front. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains, which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on Wendesday. A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend. Area swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow water if unsure. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Through 00z Saturday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle with diurnal driven clouds increasing in coverage during the day and fading towards evening/night. Northeast winds with speeds between 5-15 kts are expected to continue through much of the TAF period. Winds will trend towards light and variable to calm towards night. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds are expected to be overall easterly to southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it through Deep South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 72 91 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 93 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248620 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 609 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in, mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast. Looking at current surface observations inland and along the immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX (Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance across the entire region. Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing amplifying across the northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will gradually slide southward across our region today. The development of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features. Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours, especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region. With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will result in gusty surface winds across most of the region, especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the upper 80s across southwestern Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid- level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis, subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region, any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface ridging will develop across most of the United States during this time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are possible during the early to mid portion of the week across southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR prevails through the period. A few showers may be possible across eastern sites through the period, although dry conditions will prevail overall. Northeasterly flow prevails through the period, and may become gusty at times. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7 feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended further out in time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 84 73 84 / 20 0 0 0 West Kendall 72 85 70 85 / 10 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 74 85 71 85 / 20 0 0 0 Homestead 73 84 72 84 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 83 73 83 / 20 0 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 84 73 83 / 20 0 0 0 Pembroke Pines 75 86 72 86 / 20 0 0 0 West Palm Beach 74 84 72 83 / 10 0 0 0 Boca Raton 74 84 72 84 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 71 88 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248617 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:33 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Ocean effect clouds linger into early tonight over eastern MA, along with a low chance for an ocean effect shower or two over the Cape and Islands early tonight. A warming trend kicks off Friday as the colder airmass starts to move offshore. The pattern turns more unsettled going into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Chilly and breezy overnight Dry conditions expected to continue through tonight with a low chance of an ocean effect shower or two out towards Cape Cod and the Islands. Latest high-res guidance indicates the best chance will be generally after 8 PM tonight, decreasing as the night goes on. Continued breezy NW winds will continue through the night, but the lack of mixing should keep winds the elevated winds at 850 mb from coming to the surface over the interior. Gustier conditions can be expected over the Cape and Islands tonight as mixing will take longer to end, allowing 35 knot winds at 850 mb to mix down. Gusts approaching and exceeding 30 mph remain possible there into tonight. With continued NW winds overnight, it may feel cooler than the actual air temperature. Despite lows in the upper 40s tonight over the Cape and Islands, it may feel closer to the 30s with the wind chill. Over the interior, a similar story: breezy NW winds will continue, making temperatures in the 30s feel more like the 20s when accounting for wind chill. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Winds diminish a bit in the afternoon * Dry and slightly warmer Friday Not much has changed from the previous forecast. The cold pool over the region will shift more offshore tomorrow as an upper level ridge begins to build in behind it. Height rises and approaching surface high pressure will allow temperatures aloft to recover slightly, getting to just between 5-8C at 925 mb by Friday afternoon. Daytime highs will improve from the mid 50s to the low 60s for much of southern New England. With high pressure approaching and the upper level trough moving more offshore, wind gusts will start to drop off in the afternoon, though it will remain breezy with good mixing. Forecast soundings show 850 mb winds dropping below 30 knots in the afternoon over the interior. Breezy conditions will continue to diminish going into Friday night with clearing skies. With winds decreasing, wind chill will not be as much of a factor overnight. Low temperatures expected to be in the 30s for much of the region once again with the Cape and Islands in the upper 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry weekend with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun in valley locations * Looking unsettled next week as multiple shortwaves move through the region. Details... This Weekend... Guidance shows a 576dm ridge building over the northeast CONUS by Saturday afternoon. This ridging will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. 850mb temps increase to +7- +11C through the weekend. Model soundings show modest mixing so temperatures will be somewhat mild, rising into mid 60s on Saturday, and perhaps warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s, especially in interior river valleys on Sunday. Next Week... Still seeing good agreement amongst global models in a relatively deep shortwave trough moving in from the Great Lakes to start the week. Main disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF is the shape and orientation of the trough. GFS has a much more progressive, postively-tiled trough while the EURO wants to cut it off from the mean zonal flow. In terms of sensible weather impacts, the GFS solution would result in more of a quick-hitting area of showers and perhaps a low-topped thunderstorm or two along the cold front Monday afternoon before things quickly cleared out. A more prolonged rain event would be possible if the EURO solution panned out, but details will be ironed out in future forecast updates. Regardless, the NBM has increasing POPs Monday morning, peaking during the afternoon before decreasing in the evening. Looking at the large-scale pattern for Tues and Weds, a much more significant trough begins to dig over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday. Although it is still fairly early, ensemble guidance suggests the trough becomes negatively-tilted as heights build over the western CONUS. Temperatures next week should be somewhat cooler with more in the way of cloud cover with highs in the lower 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Rest of Today...High Confidence. VFR. 4-5k ft cigs over the Cape/Islands continue to expand across eastern MA through the rest of the afternoon. Patchy MVFR possible outer Cape late today. NW gusts 25-30 kt. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tonight. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Confidence not high enough to include over coastal terminals. Tomorrow...High Confidence. VFR with MVFR possibly lingering over the Cape and Islands. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. Gusts expected to diminish in the afternoon hours as strong winds aloft start to move more offshore. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light NW winds around 5 kts or less for much of southern New England; around 10 kts over the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in LLWS. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Chance for LLWS if decoupling occurs tonight. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Friday Night...High confidence. Gale-force winds will last through tonight, ending Friday morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale-force winds are not expected after Friday morning, winds will remain around 25-30 knots through Friday afternoon, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet. Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/... Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight, which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+ feet. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248616 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 308 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low level moisture returns briefly tonight into Friday with slight higher rain chances. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence late overnight into Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for portions of the Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A fairly quiet start to the Florida Keys. We have a lingering ongoing surge from earlier this morning pushing across the island chain. Winds along the marine platforms are generally around 15 knots from the north and northeast. Meanwhile, radar shows a narrow band of showers that developed along a convergence zone just off the southeast Florida coast. These showers are oriented nearly north to south and have been moving across our easternmost waters this morning. This line is beginning to break down as we lose that convergence. Made a small change to up winds across the coastal areas to account for the ongoing leftover surge. Otherwise, dry air will hold for today and limit rain chances to the offshore waters south of the island chain. Some low level moisture is moving down across the southwest North Atlantic and is progged to move in by the late afternoon but more likely closer to the evening. Slightly higher rain chances is the main result. Another nocturnal surge is expected tonight, followed by a general freshening breezes as high pressure builds across the eastern half of the U.S. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage relatively low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens overnight into Friday. Shower coverage will increase Saturday night through Sunday night as a warm front and associated low pressure system moves through the region. Showers will be more likely across the waters south of the island chain. Drier air filters back in Monday leading to drier conditions and slackening breezes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 301 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and evening. Watching for some showers to develop but coverage will be limited. Therefore, will omit mentions of VCSH for now. Otherwise, northeast to east winds have briefly slackened this afternoon and will freshen at or just after sunset and continue into Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 76 86 / 30 30 20 10 Marathon 76 84 76 84 / 30 30 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248615 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 259 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday, as high pressure as moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend, as the high slides offshore, with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather Monday through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Chilly tonight with diminishing winds inland. Patchy frost will be possible into early Friday morning in the piedmont. - Cool/dry weather for Friday. This afternoon, high pressure (~1027 mb) is centered over the Great Lakes. Drier/cooler air continues to filter into the area with a breezy NW wind (especially at the coast). Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 60s and will climb a few more degrees this afternoon. High pressure becomes centered over the central Appalachians later tonight into Friday. Diminishing winds are expected after sunset, the exception being near the coast where it will stay mixed and breezy overnight. Patchy frost develops over our far NW/W locations early Friday morning where winds are able to decouple. Opted against a Frost Advisory with mainly patchy frost coverage expected, especially on elevated surfaces and typically cooler spots. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s across the NW Piedmont, to the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the inland CWA and inland MD Eastern Shore, to the mid 40s to around 50 closer to the coast. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and another day with a mainly sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry Friday night, a little warmer Saturday. - Warm on Sunday ahead of a cold front. High pressure becomes centered south of the area Friday night into early Saturday. In addition, there will be an increase in high clouds Friday night east of an upper ridge axis. This keeps temperatures warmer Friday night, with lows generally in the low to mid 40s (inland). The coolest temperatures will likely be across interior SE VA and NE NC where it stays clear later into the night. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and turning a little warmer, as the upper level ridge axis shifts east to the coast later in the day, and off the coast by Sunday morning. Winds will be light enough for some onshore flow at the coast where highs range in the upper 60s, with low 70s inland. Increasing southerly flow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid to upper 70s with partly to mostly sunny skies (increasing clouds late). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Best chance for rain is Sunday night, followed by mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures next week. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. The latest 12Z/16 models continue to show differences with respect to the evolution of the system, the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the potential for secondary surface low development compared to the GFS/CMC. The associated ensembles reflect these differences in potential rainfall chances with the EPS being the only one that shows any chance for 0.50"+ of rainfall Sunday night/early Monday (and even the EPS has trended drier than 24 hrs ago). As noted above, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negative tilt as it reaches the western slope of the mountains, which may cause the precip to split over the area and/or struggle east of the Appalachians. It is also possible that if the ECMWF solution is correct, we may see a few gusty showers Sunday night and perhaps even a rumble of thunder (though instability is lacking and the better dynamics are further to the north). Behind the front, temperatures will be near to a little below normal, with mainly dry conditions expected Mon-Tue, with another upper trough forecast to become centered over the NE CONUS by midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Dry, with clear to mostly clear skies will persist through the 18Z/16 TAF period across the region. Winds are generally out of the NW this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at times. Diminishing winds heading into this evening and tonight, though ORF will likely continue gusting to ~20 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Lighter winds return Friday and Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Drying out for Monday. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Colder and drier air over the region brings solid Small Craft Advisory conditions to the local waters. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday and Saturday with improving marine conditions. - Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday into Monday with the next frontal passage. Strong 1028mb high pressure remains situated over the Great Lakes region. A dry cold front from a low pressure system well off the NE coast has filtered in drier, colder air. This has mixed well over the warmer water temperatures causing elevated winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the Ches. Bay. Winds over the rivers have been slightly under performing with only an occasional gust to 20 kt. Have decided to leave the SCA through this evening, as some obs show 20 kt gusts, but the advisory may be cancelled early. Otherwise, SCA are in effect for the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and lower James River through Friday with the coastal waters extended now through early Saturday. Winds will slightly increase late tonight as a secondary surge of cool air advects over the waters. The local wind probabilities remain low for the potential of gale-force gust tonight and have maintained gusts to 30 kt in the coastal waters and upper bay. NW winds will then decrease early Friday morning throughout the day to 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the bay and 15- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt by Friday afternoon. Light winds 5-10 kt shifting directions are expected Saturday. Waves and seas are currently 2-4 ft and 4-7 ft, respectively. They will remain elevated overnight and begin to slowly decline on Friday to 2-3 ft in the bay and 4-6 ft in the coastal waters. Seas offshore are expected to stay at or above 5 ft into early Saturday morning. The SCA has been extended to 1 AM Saturday morning, but there is still a chance that the waves could decline quicker than anticipated. Later this weekend, a low pressure system will move north of the area passing an associated cold front through the local waters Sunday into Monday. Another period of SCA conditions is likely as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of and behind the cold front. Local wind probabilities currently have up to 100% chance of gust to 25 kt over the coastal waters and 50-70% over the bay. Not currently expected any gale-force gusts as probs are less than 20% across all waters for this time period. Waves and seas will additionally increase. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ |
| #1248614 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 214 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the northwest will usher in the coolest air since Spring through the end of the work week. The high will shift offshore ahead of a front over the weekend bringing a gradual warm-up and low rain chances. More high pressure will bring cooler, drier weather back for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows chilly high pressure way up in Michigan, with the fingers of it extending all the way down into the Carolinas. Plenty of dry air and subsidence have paved the way for a cloudless day. Low-level cold air advection has limited temperatures to only the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, perfect for the pumpkin patch. Clear skies continue through tonight. Boundary layer winds don`t appear to calm down completely, but they do slow down considerably, opening up some nice radiational cooling tonight. Widespread lows in the low-to-mid 40s tonight for most. The peat soils across parts of Pender and Bladen Counties have already started to show off their propensity to cool down pretty quick. There is a Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) in Back Island, NC that got down to 44 degrees last night, and I`m expecting it to get even chillier tonight. Even with boundary layer winds very slightly elevated, I went for lows in the mid 30s around the Back Island area. Keep an eye on the hourly observations from this site here: raws.dri.edu/cgi- bin/rawMAIN.pl?laNBAC. Friday looks gorgeous, with a nearly cloudless sky once again. Highs should be a degree or two cooler than what we`ve seen this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The mid level pattern will be under transition during the weekend as a weak trough moves across from west to east. Surface high pressure will be replaced by a decent southwest flow and eventually a cold front moving across late in the period. Pops/moisture have decreased with the latest guidance and some areas may see conditions remain dry. A decent warmup is in the offing with the southwest flow as highs in the middle to upper 70s approaching 80 in some areas Sunday are expected. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Outside of a fast moving/weak system bringing a slight chance of showers Tuesday the extended period looks dry and seasonable for temperatures at least early on. Somewhat cooler temperatures somewhat similar to what is occurring now are expected later in the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Occasional gusts at 15-18 kts out of the NNE have been recorded so far this afternoon, but should calm by sunset. Calm to light and variable winds expected overnight, increasing to 5-7 kts towards the end of the period. No fog or low stratus concerns. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Very low risk for restrictions Sunday night into Monday morning, as a passing cold front may bring a shower or two with it. && .MARINE... Through Friday... Persistent NNE winds at 15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts possible through midday Friday. Pressure gradient loosens slightly by Friday afternoon, and sustained winds decrease to 8-10 kts, backing slightly to the NNW. Seas at 2-4 ft come down a tad to 2-3 ft. Friday Night through Wednesday...A light northerly flow will be in place through Saturday followed by decent and somewhat stronger southwest winds through early Monday. With wind speeds rising to a range of 20-25 knots seas eclipsing the six foot small craft advisory criteria are increasingly likely at least for a few hours. Quick transitions highlight conditions next week as an offshore flow quickly turns to southwest Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding is likely into early next week as we approach a full moon, particularly along the SE NC coast as well as the Lower Cape Fear River which includes Downtown Wilmington. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1248613 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 110 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Upper ridge over the area to keep us on the dry side over the short term. - Rain to return to the forecast this weekend as a result of increasing moisture and a front. - There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Saturday for the NW part of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Relatively dry conditions expected over the short term as an upper ridge currently centered over the ArkLaMiss States remains near the CWA. Going into the weekend, we will see it shift off to the southeast into the Gulf as a trough pushes northeastward over the western CONUS. At the surface, we have an area of high pressure currently over the Great Lakes Region, which is projected to continue pushing off southeastward. This will allow for the return of southeasterly flow tomorrow, then southerly flow will become dominant early in the weekend. Nevertheless, the short term will remain quiet as it sets up for a slightly more active long term period. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 We start off the long term slightly more active, with isolated to scattered chances for showers and storms. We have a Marginal Risk for severe storms across nearly all of our MS counties and in our LA parishes along/north of the I-10 and west of the I-55. Despite the setup in the short term, we will not really see a significant increase in PWATs on Saturday, as they will be floating at and below the 75th percentile. However, going into Sunday, we could see PWATs get to the 90th percentile and higher. This, along with a weak cold front, will be the driver for showers and storms this weekend. Past FROPA, a high pressure will quickly move into and away from the region, eventually centering itself over the deep south by early next week. We could see another weak front, along with isolated chances of showers for the remainder of the week with the lingering moisture; however, nothing significant is expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to persist for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Tonight, we could see another round of patchy to dense fog; however, model guidance is a bit more spread for exact locations. Fog looks likely to set in a few hours after midnight, then linger until it burns off after sunrise. After that, VFR conditions are expected to return.&& .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but do not expect any prolonged periods where winds exceed 20 knots. further increase onshore winds to 15 to 20 knots Friday night. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will move east of the area today, with a continued pattern of low relative humidity and light winds. Minimum RH values will be between 35 and 45 percent north of the Interstate 10/12 corridor today, and 45 to 50 percent south of there. On Friday, minimum RH values will be about 10 percent higher than today. Moisture levels will continue to increase over the weekend ahead of a cold front that is expected to move across the area on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front late Saturday into Sunday, but most areas probably will not see much more than about one half inch of rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 20 BTR 63 88 66 88 / 0 0 0 30 ASD 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 10 MSY 68 88 71 88 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 66 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 62 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248612 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region through the rest of this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday, followed by another area of high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridging in the mid and upper levels will prevail through the remainder of today and through tonight, with upper air analyses showing the center of the ridge extending northward through the Great Lakes. High pressure at 850 hPa and at the surface will be anchored over the Great Lakes through the remainder of today, shifting slightly eastward overnight. Quiet conditions will prevail through the remainder of this afternoon and tonight with clear skies prevailing. Temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper 70s, with some spots along the Altamaha River possibly touching 80. Overnight clear skies and light to calm winds will yield decent radiational cooling. NBM low temperatures show upper 40s inland with mid to upper 50s along the coastline. However, given the radiational cooling actual temperatures have a high likelihood of being several degrees below these values, with mid 40s possible inland and low 50s away from the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday through Saturday: The center of a 1020 mb high will build across the region during the late week. On Friday, a weak H5 ridge is forecast to ripple across the region. Sky conditions should remain clear/sunny through Friday. Given a cool start to the day, 40s and 50s, afternoon temperatures are forecast to peak in the lower 70s across the CHS Tri-county to the upper 70s across SE GA. The H5 ridge will flatten with the weak axis shifting to the east Friday night into Saturday. HREF indicates that high clouds should gradually increase from the west as the ridge axis shifts over the Atlantic. The combination of thin high clouds, light to calm winds, and dry weather should result lows in the 50s, with pockets of upper 40s across portions of inland SC. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to range from the mid 70s across the CHS metro to around 80 across SE GA. On Sunday, near term guidance indicates that a cold front will approach the forecast area from the west. As the front approaches, return flow across the CWA will gradually strengthen through the day. High temperatures should favor values between 80 to 85. It is possible that an isolated shower may arrive over SE GA by sunset on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models time a cold front across the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Guidance as trended drier with recent runs, this trend continued with the 12Z. Isolated showers are possible with the passage of the front, providing little to no measurable rainfall. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, remaining until another weak front approaches late Tuesday. Stronger high pressure is forecast to build across the region on Wednesday. Temperatures should begin the day in the 50s and warming into the 70s each day. Overall, the extended range forecast appears dry. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 18Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through early next week. && .MARINE... Rest of Today and Tonight: High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will yield NNE winds through tonight, generally around 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to increase, with some 6 ft seas entering the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect starting tonight for the 6 ft seas. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will generally weaken through Friday into Friday night. As a result, 6 ft seas over the outer GA waters should generally subside, a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south-southeast on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing across the waters Monday morning. A few gusts around 25 kts may briefly occur across the nearshore Charleston County waters and outer GA waters Sunday night. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. Low risk along the GA and SC coasts on Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties for this afternoon`s high tide around 5:15 PM, which is forecast to reach minor flood stage in the Charleston Harbor. There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon / early evening high tide cycles on Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049- 050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248611 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 157 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today and at NE FL beaches on Friday - Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon - Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact Area: St. Johns River Basin Southern Duval county southward && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Clear skies and northeasterly winds continue today, it may be gusty at times this afternoon and evening near the Atlantic coast. High temperatures will continue to climb into the lower to mid 80s inland, and a few degrees cooler near the coast and St. Johns river basin. Tonight, lows over inland southeast Georgia will dip into the mid 50s, with lows in the 60s elsewhere. Shallow, localized patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Surface high pressure ridge of about 1018-1022 mb will be over VA and NC on Friday and shift offshore through Saturday night. Aloft, a prominent mid level ridge from the Gulf into the TN Valley will move east while weakening as a shortwave trough digs into the central CONUS. As the surface high pressure ridge moves by to the north, our local wind field will veer from northeast to east and then southeast through Sat and Sat night. Very limited moisture remains with PWATs of below 1 inch (about the 20th percentile compared to climatology) to continue the stretch of dry weather, with pleasant highs near average with skies mostly clear. Lows expected to be below average and chilly for Saturday morning with lows the middle 50s inland, but lower 60s at the coast. Our forecast lows not as cold Saturday night due to the veering/warm advection flow and some increased moisture as the next frontal boundary approach from the northwest. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The weak cold front approaches from the northwest on Sunday with a mean southerly low level flow. This should boost temps to above normal in the mid to upper 80s. Moisture and dynamics are limited ahead of the front so we only have slight chances for the area late Sunday into Sunday night. The front expected to push through the area Sunday night with weak high pressure building behind it on Monday. The next front will approach the area Tuesday and this one will be even drier as it moves through Tuesday night/early Wed. General high pressure again over the area again Wed-Thu. Pretty dry airmass moving in behind the front on Monday with PWATs again at only the 25th percentile. Have slightly lowered NBM guidance dewpoints Mon- Tue due to abnormal dry air. Max temperatures will trend a little closer to normal or just above normal Monday through Thursday. We could near the record high at Gainesville on Tuesday with some upper 80s possible across inland northeast FL. With a dry airmass prevailing and relatively light winds during the overnight periods, low temperatures will be below normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Overall, VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds will persist through tonight. Pre-dawn, MVFR visibilities are likely at VQQ, conditions will improve after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Elevated seas offshore will maintain Small Craft Advisory conditions through at least Friday morning. High pressure will then weaken as it shifts southeastward towards our local waters on Saturday, allowing winds and seas to diminish. A weakening cold front will then approach our region on Sunday night, possibly developing a few showers and thunderstorms ahead of it. Southwesterly winds will briefly strengthen ahead of this boundary, with winds shifting to northerly in the wake of this frontal passage by early Monday. Rip currents: High rip current risk continues at the northeast Florida beaches Friday, with a moderate risk a the southeast Georgia beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm and dry weather will continue the next few days which does not help given the abnormally dry areas, especially inland areas from Suwannee Valley northward into southeast GA. Min RH values will drop well into the 30s Fri and Sat afternoons across inland southeast GA, with some recovery Sunday ahead of a cool front, then only to bottom out again Monday and Tuesday into the 30s. Some patchy high daytime dispersions possible the next few days with patchy early morning shallow fog possible. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 155 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Minor flooding during the next high tide this evening along the St. Johns river south of downtown Jacksonville is likely. Confidence in minor flooding is high enough for a timing extension of the Coastal Flood Advisory for these locations to cover Friday`s high tide cycles. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 60 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132- 137-138-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1248610 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 154 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday, as high pressure as moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend, as the high slides offshore, with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather Monday through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Chilly tonight with diminishing winds inland. Patchy frost will be possible into early Friday morning in the piedmont. - Cool/dry weather for Friday. This afternoon, high pressure (~1027 mb) is centered over the Great Lakes. Drier/cooler air continues to filter into the area with a breezy NW wind (especially at the coast). Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 60s and will climb a few more degrees this afternoon. High pressure becomes centered over the central Appalachians later tonight into Friday. Diminishing winds are expected after sunset, the exception being near the coast where it will stay mixed and breezy overnight. Patchy frost develops over our far NW/W locations early Friday morning where winds are able to decouple. Opted against a Frost Advisory with mainly patchy frost coverage expected, especially on elevated surfaces and typically cooler spots. Temperatures will range from the mid 30s across the NW Piedmont, to the upper 30s to lower 40s across much of the inland CWA and inland MD Eastern Shore, to the mid 40s to around 50 closer to the coast. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and another day with a mainly sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry Friday/Friday night, a little warmer Saturday. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and another day with a mainly sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. Clear Friday evening, then increasing high clouds stream over to the east of the upper ridge axis overnight. This will keep it a little warmer Friday night, with lows mainly 40-45F, with the coolest temperatures likely across interior SE VA/NE NC where it`ll stay clear through through much of the night. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and turning a little warmer, as the upper level ridge axis shifts east to the coast later in the day, and off the coast by Sunday morning. WInds will be light enough for some onshore flow at the coast where highs range in the upper 60s, with low-mid 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warm on Sunday ahead of a cold front. - Best chance for rain is Sunday night, followed by mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures next week. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. The latest 00Z/16 models still show some differences with respect to the evolution of the system, the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the potential for secondary sfc low development compared to the GFS/CMC. The associated ensembles reflect these differences in potential rainfall chances with the EPS being the only one that shows any chance for 0.50"+ of rainfall Sun night/early Monday (and even the EPS has trended drier than 24 hrs ago). Either way, most if not all of the daytime hrs Sunday look dry (will have 15-25% PoPs late in the day across the NW). Increasing southerly slow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid to upper 70s under a partly sunny sky. As noted above, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negative tilt as it reaches the western slope of the mountains, which may cause the precip to split over the area and/or struggle east of the Appalachians. Have likely PoPs Sun night confined to the far NE, with only 30-50% PoPs elsewhere (lowest in the SE). Behind the trough, temperatures will be near to a little below normal, with mainly dry conditions expected Mon-Tue, with another upper trough forecast to become centered over the NE CONUS by midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 150 PM EDT Thursday... Dry, with clear to mostly clear skies will persist through the 18Z/16 TAF period across the region. Winds are generally out of the NW this afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at times. Diminishing winds heading into this evening and tonight, though ORF will likely continue gusting to ~20 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Lighter winds return Friday and Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Drying out for Monday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Colder and drier air filters south this morning into early Friday, bringing solid SCA conditions to the local waters. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday into Saturday with improving marine conditions. 1024mb high pressure remains centered over northern MI with low pressure well east of the Atlantic coast. Winds have strengthened back into the 15-25 kt range with gusts 25-30 kt as the cooler and drier air behind a front filters southward and promotes deeper mixing over the relatively warm local waters. Waves in the bay are 2- 4 ft with seas 5-7 ft. Expect SCA conditions to prevail for most of the local waters from this morning into Friday. One exception may be the upper rivers where hi-res guidance shows the winds may not be as strong as previously indicated. Will maintain the ongoing SCA headlines in the rivers for now. Local wind probs continue to back off with respect to the potential for a period of gale-force gusts tonight as an additional surge of cold advection drops southward. Will maintain 20- 25 kt with gust to 30 kt for the bay and coastal waters. Winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the rivers and Currituck Sound. Waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft before decreasing back into the 2-3 ft range by Friday afternoon. NW wind direction should keep seas offshore from building as much as the wind speed would suggest but will maintain 5-7 ft through Friday morning. Seas offshore are forecast to stay above 5 ft into early Saturday, but given the offshore wind direction and low confidence on exactly how fast seas will fall off, have not extended the offshore SCAs any further with this forecast cycle. High pressure builds into the area on Friday with winds rapidly decreasing through the morning and early afternoon. Low level flow becomes southerly early Sunday ahead of the next front. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday into Monday as the gradient tightens ahead of and behind the cold frontal passage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1248609 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday night - Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters and along the immediate coast through tonight with dry conditions forecast through this weekend and into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Current-Tonight... A weak surface boundary passes east central Florida late today and into tonight as a "backdoor" cold front. Isolated showers are forecast across the local waters this evening and overnight, and a few may wander onshore at times. Otherwise, mostly dry. Breezy northeast winds this afternoon fall to around 5- 10 mph tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range the mid to upper 60s across the interior with upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Friday-Saturday... Surface high pressure stretches across the eastern U.S., maintaining dry conditions locally. Breezy northeast winds continue Friday with flow slackening and shifting out of the east on Saturday. Cannot rule out a few stray onshore- moving showers throughout the period, but expecting PoPs to remain mostly dry. High temperatures mostly range the low 80s each day, but some areas across the far interior may touch the mid 80s. Cooler morning low temperatures arrive Saturday with values in the low to mid 60s across the interior and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Portions of northwest Volusia and northern Lake may even fall into the upper 50s Saturday morning. Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean. Sunday-Wednesday... High pressure is pushed offshore as the next cold front moves into the eastern U.S. Limited moisture returns locally late this weekend and into early next week. The forecast remains mostly dry through the extended forecast as the front washes out and slows south of the area. High pressure and dry air builds in wake of the frontal boundary with a second front forecast to approach the area again mid week. Have kept no mentionable rain chances with this forecast package. Highs climb a few degrees above normal across the interior through Tuesday, reaching the upper 80s in most spots. More seasonable temperatures are forecast near and east of I-95, spreading the mid 80s. Sunday will be the coolest morning of the period, with lows in the low to mid 60s inland and mid to upper 60s along the coast. Lows more widely range the mid to upper 60s Monday and into mid week. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast winds around 15-20 kts will maintain poor to hazardous seas through Friday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters (20-60 nm), expanding to the nearshore Treasure Coast (0-20 nm) waters after 8PM for seas of 6-8 ft. Small craft should exercise caution across nearshore Volusia and nearshore Brevard (0-20 nm) for seas up to 6 ft through Friday. Winds veer east around 10 kts into Saturday, further veering south-southeast on Sunday. Seas of 4-5 ft become more favorable on Saturday before a longer period swell briefly builds seas back to 6 ft across parts of the Gulf Stream on Sunday. A cold front approaches the local waters early next week, washing out as is passes the local waters. Rounds of isolated showers will be possible in onshore flow through Saturday. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions mostly forecast through the remainder of today and into tonight. It will be mostly dry this afternoon, with isolated onshore moving showers then possible into tonight. This activity may be able to push far enough inland to reach the I-4 corridor, but for now better potential for any showers will be along the coast and have added VCSH for coastal TAF sites starting at 00Z. Drier air then moves in by early Friday morning, which should put an end to any additional shower development across the area. NE winds 10-14 knots with gusts up to 18-22 knots forecast through this afternoon, diminishing to 5-10 knots into tonight. NE winds then pick up again by late morning, with speeds around 9-13 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 80 64 81 / 10 0 0 0 MCO 68 83 64 83 / 10 0 0 0 MLB 71 81 68 81 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 71 81 67 81 / 20 0 0 0 LEE 65 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 67 82 63 83 / 10 0 0 0 ORL 68 82 64 83 / 10 0 0 0 FPR 70 81 66 81 / 20 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1248608 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Gusty marine winds each night, improving during the day - Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a very slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure remains aloft over the southeastern U.S. this afternoon while surface high pressure near the Great Lakes ridges southward. These features will slowly shift eastward over the next couple of days as a trough digs through the central U.S. and a surface frontal boundary moves into the southeast. This front will be the only (relatively) interesting thing in the forecast for the next week. Over the past few days, models were showing a slight chance for some showers, but these have continued to back off on the amount of moisture available, so for now, we will show barely a rain chance for the very northern part of the forecast area Sunday afternoon. High pressure builds in over the southeast behind the boundary and quickly shifts eastward, keeping warm and dry conditions in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with mainly northeast winds continuing. && .MARINE... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Northeast to east winds continue for the next few days, increasing to exercise caution levels each night. No headlines are expected during the daytime hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 No fire weather concerns for the next few days as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 70 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 69 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 68 85 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 68 87 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 62 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 71 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248607 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 147 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in across ENC in the wake of last night`s backdoor cold front. High will gradually anchor over the East Coast into this weekend ahead of the next cold frontal passage late this weekend into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Following last night`s cold frontal passage, pressure gradient remains pinched between high pressure currently centered across the upper Great Lakes region and an area of low pressure well offshore of the East Coast. This has brought a renewed northerly surge of winds today, with cold air advection limiting high temperatures to the mid-to- upper 60s across ENC under clear skies. Winds will calm inland tonight, leading to strong radiational cooling that will allow temps to drop to the low 40s inland (upper-40s to mid-50s along the coast). Some sheltered spots may even briefly dip into the upper 30s tonight. Dry conditions will preclude any threat of fog development overnight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Conditions will be chilly to start the day on Friday, with temperatures expected to be hovering in the low-to-mid 40s around 8 AM. A cool and dry airmass will remain in place, allowing temperatures to climb only to the mid 60s under sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds will continue but gradually relax through the day as high pressure continues to build in and gradually becomes centered over the mid-Atlantic. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thu... Key Messages... - High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend with above normal temps returning. - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving and likely moisture- starved front moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Sunny skies and VFR conditions across ENC today will persist through the end of the period as high pressure builds in and gradually becomes centered over the mid- Atlantic through Friday night. Pressure gradient remains pinched between the high building in and low pressure centered offshore, with gust northerly winds (gusts of 15-20 kts inland, 25-30 kts OBX) lasting through the day today. Winds become light and variable tonight with temperatures again crashing under clear skies. Expect dry conditions to preclude development of any fog tonight, however. Similar day in store Friday with northerly winds gradually weakening throughout the day. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 2 PM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday, and there could be some temporary flying restrictions as a result. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 130 PM Thursday...Steady northerly breeze persists across area waters with winds 15-25 knots and gusts of 20-30 kts. SCAs remain in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers. High-res guidance continues to advertise another northerly surge late this evening before winds begin to relax late tonight. Expect SCAs to remain in place for sounds, the Alligator River, and southern coastal waters through late morning/early afternoon tomorrow. Seas have come up again with the renewed northerly surge behind last night`s cold frontal passage, with waves of 6-9 feet across the coastal waters. South of Lookout, nearshore waters remain somewhat sheltered from northerly winds, with waves of 3-5 feet. Periods generally shorten through the day, with 10-11 sec early becoming 7-8 sec from N to S as wind waves begin to dominate. Waves begin to subside through the day on Friday, but lingering 6-footers will lead to SCAs persisting into Friday night for the central and northern coastal waters. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 2 PM Thu... Key Messages - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday and Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front Winds continue to weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain. Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North Atlantic. Seas could increase to 5-7 ft for much of the marine waters, but confidence is low on the exact timing and strength of this swell. Seas will increase to 6-10 ft Sunday as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 2 PM Thu...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue through Friday keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday. Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204- 205. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ131. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158-230- 231. && $$ |
| #1248606 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 137 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Today with ocean effect clouds along the southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers towards the Cape and Islands later today and tonight. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points * Cool and Gusty NW winds up to 30-40mph with chilly temps in the low 50s. Cool and windy today as cold air advection continues, supported by the cold pool aloft dropping south. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-50s even under sunny skies across the interior. Skies will be more overcast across the Cape and Islands, with ocean- effect strato-cumulus clouds forming as cold air moves over the relatively warm ocean waters still in the upper 50s to low 60s. There could be some ocean effect rain showers late in the day, but boundary layer conditions are rather dry, and rain will struggle to reach the ground. Diurnal heating today will allow mixing of winds up to 850mb today where winds are around 25-35 knots (28-40mph) will mix down to the surface this afternoon. The gusty winds will make it feel like the 40s today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Points * Windy and Cold tonight. Lows in the 30s. * Decreasing winds and slightly warmer. * Minor splash over flooding possible with the evening high tide. See coastal flood section below. Tonight: Winds at 850mb increase to 35-45 knots overnight, but with the loss of diurnal heating, it will be much harder to mix those gusts down to the surface. It will still be breezy overnight with gusts around 20-25mph. With overnight lows dropping into the 30s away from the coasts, the wind chill values will fall into the upper 20s. Tomorrow: The cold pool begins to move offshore on Friday with an upper-level ridge building in behind. With rising heights and weakening cold air advection, high temperatures will be able to rebound slightly into the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly sunny skies. Stronger winds aloft begin to move offshore on Friday, meaning we will still have gusty northerly winds in the morning, but becoming light in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun * Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain Details... Saturday/Sunday... A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. 850T warm significantly by Saturday and while we will not be able to mix that deep or fully realize at the surface...still expect highs to reach the lower to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts east of the region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and 70 on Sunday. Early Next Week... A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure system developing near or south of southern New England. If this were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Rest of Today...High Confidence. VFR. 4-5k ft cigs over the Cape/Islands continue to expand across eastern MA through the rest of the afternoon. Patchy MVFR possible outer Cape late today. NW gusts 25-30 kt. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tonight. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Confidence not high enough to include over coastal terminals. Tomorrow...High Confidence. VFR with MVFR possibly lingering over the Cape and Islands. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. Gusts expected to diminish in the afternoon hours as strong winds aloft start to move more offshore. Tomorrow Night...High Confidence. VFR. Light NW winds around 5 kts or less for much of southern New England; around 10 kts over the Cape and Islands. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in LLWS. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Chance for LLWS if decoupling occurs tonight. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Through Friday Gale-force winds begin across the eastern waters later this morning as a strong cold front moves through. Gale-force winds will last into Thursday night, ending Friday morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale- force winds are not expected after Friday morning, Winds will remain around 25-30 knots, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Coastal Flood: Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight, which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+ feet. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233>235-237. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248605 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 145 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low rain chances (20-30%) are forecast for Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. Little to no significant impacts are anticipated. - Drought continues to worsen across the area with little beneficial rain on the horizon. The continued dry conditions and decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire concerns through next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure continues to dominate our forecast through Saturday with warm days and comfortable nights continuing. A surge of drier air moves in from the east and northeast tomorrow afternoon, which will help reinforce our tranquil weather. Highs will continue to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Moisture increases Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. PWATs increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches, but the main limiting factor will be lift. The parent trough will be well to our north over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, which limits support for showers and storms. What most likely will happen is a band of showers and storms along or just ahead of the front will weaken as it moves into our area. Rain chances are highest over our Central Time Zone counties at 30-40%, decreasing to the east. An isolated storm or two is possible, though instability is rather limited with deep layer shear topping out at 25-30 kt. Drier air moves in behind the front heading into Monday. Dew points will drop into the 40s and 50s on Monday with a 20-40% chance that dew points will fall below 40. Another cold front will move through on Tuesday with moisture being even more scant. Yet another surge of cooler, drier air will move into the area to round out next week. Highs will still be in the low to mid 80s through Tuesday, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. Behind the front, highs will drop into the 70s on Wednesday with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. The main change in the weather will be a gradual turn of low-level flow from northeasterly to easterly or perhaps southeasterly by this time on Friday. On most recent mornings, reduced vsby has been confined to VLD. The turn to more easterly wind will put TLH and ECP in play for a few hours of BR around sunrise on Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through Saturday with high pressure to our north. In this regime, nocturnal easterly surges could bring some localized cautionary conditions to our far offshore waters. Winds turn more southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Only widely scattered showers and an isolated storm are expected with the front Sunday. A brief bout of northerly to northeasterly moderate breezes is expected Monday before clocking around out of the east to southeast again Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with east to southeast transport winds around 5-10 mph. Dispersions will generally be good, though some high dispersions are possible in the Alabama zones Saturday where mixing heights will be highest. A cold front moves into and through the area Sunday with a low chance (10- 30%) of a wetting rain. Otherwise, dispersions increase Sunday with southwesterly transport winds of 10-20 mph. Drier air follows in its wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Sunday`s cold front doesn`t look as promising for widespread beneficial rain, unfortunately. In fact, the 90th percentile is only a quarter to half an inch, and most likely, rain totals will be less than a tenth of an inch. No rain is expected beyond then through the end of the forecast period. This dry weather continues to spell bad news for drought concerns. The latest US Drought Monitor now shows expanding extreme drought across parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into south Georgia. For more information on the local drought conditions, please visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 59 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 65 84 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 57 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 57 82 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 59 83 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 65 80 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248604 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1243 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A mid-level shortwave is moving through coastal Texas today leading to a narrow streak of clouds with minimal rain due to PWATs maxing out at ~1.5". This shortwave will be quickly exiting the region by Friday, giving the Victoria Crossroads low chances for showers (15-25%) and locations in southeast Texas better chances for rainfall. Meanwhile, an upper- level trough will be pushing through east through the Rockies and pushing across the Great Plains Saturday and Sunday. At the surface, a "cold" front will try to make it through South Texas, but like previous frontal passages, any significant drops in temperature is not expected. The northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads will have the best chance for dewpoint temperatures to drop enough to allow minimum RH values to bottom out as low as 30%. Weak winds will limit the fire risk but definitely worth monitoring should the forecast Min RH value trend down on Sunday. As we start the upcoming work week, ridge influence creeps back in pushing most of the weather systems generally north of Texas. For this reason, temperatures are still looking to remain above normal through mid-week before the next whisper of a frontal passage creeps near South Texas again. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mostly VFR conditions persist through the afternoon. Overnight winds will become light and variable setting up another opportunity for patchy fog for KALI/KVCT. By mid-morning Friday, rain chances increase for the locations near KVCT and out towards Southeast Texas. For this reason, a PROB30 line was added to account for -RA. && .MARINE... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early today (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25- 35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Min RH values will generally stay above 35% for the next several days. Drier air filters into the northern Brush Country and portions of the Victoria Crossroads on Sunday leading to forecast Min RH`s dropping to as low as 30%. While the Energy Release Components will remain above the 50th percentile for locations including and east of the Brush Country, weak winds will limit the fire risk. Rain chances will remain low through Friday and any rain that does fall will generally be under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 88 71 91 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 65 87 69 91 / 0 40 0 10 Laredo 69 93 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 66 92 68 95 / 0 10 0 0 Rockport 73 87 75 89 / 10 30 10 10 Cotulla 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 67 91 68 93 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 85 77 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248603 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Dry and warm conditions will persist through Saturday, with increasing rain chances for Sunday morning. Dry conditions return for next week, along with cooler temperatures. - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by Friday evening, with a high risk expected on Saturday and Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - Very dry conditions on top of an ongoing and expanding drought may lead to fire weather concerns for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The axis of an amplified upper ridge, currently extending from the northern Gulf up through the north central US, will push to the east over the next few days. This is in response to an upper- level trough that will dig southeastward across the CONUS over the weekend. This trough should push to the east of the local region by Sunday morning, helping to establish a northwesterly flow pattern aloft in its wake for the start of next week. At the surface, an associated cold front will push through the area on Sunday. Showers and storms (potentially in the form of an MCS) will likely be ongoing upstream over the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Saturday. As the front and associated MCS approaches our area Saturday night, most guidance suggests that the best forcing should begin to lift away from the region. Also factoring in meager downstream instability due to the overnight timing and poor lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for the MCS to weaken prior reaching our northwestern counties. It should be noted that the 00z and 06z ensemble runs of the ECMWF did suggest a slightly deeper trough which could help to maintain the MCS just a bit longer for it to possibly reach our CWA. If this solution were to pan out, then the primary concern would be gusty winds for areas north of Highway 84 and west of I-65 during the early morning hours on Sunday. At this time, the potential for this is rather low. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind the cold front. We remain dry through Monday night before a stronger cold front passes through on Tuesday. With a lack of any meaningful moisture return, only a few isolated showers are possible as this second front moves through. We dry out once again for midweek as high pressure builds in to our north. Highs will remain very warm for this time of year through Sunday, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. After the first front passes through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will be knocked down by a couple degrees; ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Highs lower again for Wednesday and Thursday after the second front passes, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will follow a similar pattern. Lows will remain mild through Saturday night, with temperatures only dropping into the 60s. After the first front, lows decrease into the 50s inland and low 60s along the coast for Sunday and Monday nights. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday nights decrease even further after the second front, with some interior areas dropping into the mid to upper 40s. The rip current risk remains low through Friday afternoon, increasing to a moderate risk Friday evening. A High Risk of rip currents follow for this weekend, lowering back down to moderate by Monday. Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much of the local region. Although scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday morning, overall rainfall totals are expected to remain below a half inch, offering little relief. After the Sunday and Tuesday fronts pass through, guidance indicates that much drier air will push in, likely bringing afternoon humidity values down to below 30 percent for several days next week (Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday). Although winds appear to remain rather weak, the dry conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could lead to fire-related concerns next week. /96 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions should prevail for much of the area over the next 24 hours. However, there is an increasing signal for some patchy fog to develop over portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama at around 08-09z tonight. This could bring a reduction in flight categories to MVFR or IFR for localized areas. Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through this afternoon, becoming more variable tonight. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light southerly to southeasterly flow continues through tonight, with winds gradually increasing on Friday and Saturday, along with building seas. Winds shift to a light to moderate southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Moderate offshore flow develops Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front and becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 63 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 68 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 69 82 69 82 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 59 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 59 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 60 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 60 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248600 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents begins tomorrow at area beaches and is expected to continue through the weekend. - A warming trend continues through next Tuesday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will be less then 10% through next Tuesday, and then increase to around 20% on Wednesday and Thursday for areas E of US 281/I-69C. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week. Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas. Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA closer to Corpus Christi. Other guidance suggests that the front will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure settles in behind the front. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains, which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on Wendesday. A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend. Area swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow water if unsure. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with few clouds and light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected for all airports. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds are expected to be overall easterly to southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it through Deep South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248601 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents begins tomorrow at area beaches and is expected to continue through the weekend. - A warming trend continues through next Tuesday with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances will be less then 10% through next Tuesday, and then increase to around 20% on Wednesday and Thursday for areas E of US 281/I-69C. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An active weather pattern remains in place over the CONUS, which could bring multiple troughs over the Great Plains this next week. Despite the active pattern, dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected to continue over Deep South Texas through the middle of next week, with precipitation chances staying below 10% through Tuesday and rising to around 20% for areas east of US 281/I-69C on Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific trough is expected to eject over the Southern Plains this weekend, which will bring a weak cold front towards our area on Sunday. At this time, model guidance is not in agreement on whether or not this front will make it all the way through Deep South Texas. Some guidance suggests the front will stall to the north of the CWA closer to Corpus Christi. Other guidance suggests that the front will come through the entire Rio Grande Valley before stalling in Mexico. Either way, this front is not expected to bring any temperature relief to the area because the air will largely mix out by the time it comes this far south. Latest guidance also suggests that the precipitation chances are not expected to increase much on Sunday either, with POPs still staying below 10%. However, if the front does make it south of the CWA, we could see winds shift northeasterly which would slightly lower humidities. A gradual warming trend is expected to continue into early next week as high pressure settles in behind the front. Highs are expected to be in the low to mid 90s tomorrow, and gradually warm into the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday with some areas (particularly in the Western Ranchlands) experiencing a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s throughout the forecast period. On Wednesday, another shortwave ejects over the Southern Plains, which will provide another opportunity for a cold front to pass through the region. This front appears to be slightly stronger than the previous weekend front; if this front happens to make it to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, it could provide some temperature relief and a slightly elevated precipitation chance on Wendesday. A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents is expected at area beaches tomorrow and should continue through the weekend. Area swimmers will need to remain situationally aware and stay in shallow water if unsure. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions with few clouds and light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected for all airports. && .MARINE... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Conditions should be favorable through next week with light to moderate winds and seas between 2-4 feet. A cold front is expected to approach the area on Sunday, which could tighten the pressure gradient and increase coastal wind speeds. However, wind speeds are still expected to stay below Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Winds are expected to be overall easterly to southeasterly, possibly shifting northeasterly if the front makes it through Deep South Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 71 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 67 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 71 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 94 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 86 78 86 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 89 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248598 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 110 PM AST Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * For Puerto Rico, there is a limited to elevated flood threat, with the heaviest showers expected along the eastern sections through Saturday. Another band of thunderstorms from the Atlantic waters could move tonight from the northwest to northeast coast. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase from Friday through Saturday. * A gradual improvement in weather conditions is forecast by late Monday as a drier airmass moves across the islands. * Northerly swells will lead to deteriorating seas and life- threatening rip currents from Friday into early next week. Small craft advisories, rip current/high surf/coastal flood statements will be required, particularly from Sunday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM...Rest of today through Saturday... Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies were observed during the morning hours across the islands after a rainy early morning across Puerto Rico. As of 1 PM AST, high temperatures were from the upper 80s to low 90s across most coastal areas with heat indices up to 105F in general. The wind was from the west to southwest between 6 to 14 mph. A frontal system over the Atlantic waters will linger over the local area through the short-term period. This will promote normal to above-normal precipitable water content between 1.80-2.20 inches. Meanwhile, a polar trough will also promote colder than normal 500 mb temperatures of near -8C, which will support thunderstorm development each day. The flood threat will remain elevated mainly for portions of the Cordillera and the eastern half of PR. However, another band of showers and thunderstorms could move once again from the northwest to northeast coast of PR tonight, leading to brief periods of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds. Across the USVI, the wettest period is expected from late Friday into Saturday morning. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday... /From prev discussion issued at 532 AM AST Thu Oct 16 2025 Wet and unstable weather conditions are expected to persist through at least Monday as the remnants of a frontal boundary and its associated moisture continue to influence the local area. This pattern will result in increased moisture and instability, supporting periods of showers and thunderstorm activity across the region. The latest model guidance indicates deep-layer moisture extending from the surface to the mid-levels, maintaining a moist environment favorable for convection. As a result, frequent showers and thunderstorms are expected, with activity affecting mainly the windward and coastal sections during the nighttime and early morning hours, and developing across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Given the abundant moisture and instability, lightning and localized flooding threats will range from limited to elevated, particularly across portions of Puerto Rico through Monday. By late Monday, a gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected as drier air filters into the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday, weather conditions should become more stable overall, with moisture levels fluctuating around seasonal to below values for this time of the year. Despite the drying trend, residual moisture and local effects combined with daytime heating will still promote isolated to scattered afternoon showers, mainly over the interior and western Puerto Rico. The flooding threat during this period should remain limited to none. However, by the later part of the workweek, model guidance shows a gradual increase in moisture and shower activity as a tropical wave or potential tropical system moves south of the region. Until then, fair weather and limited convection are expected, with isolated afternoon showers possible over the western interior due to local and diurnal effects. We urge citizens and visitors to continue to monitor the forecast for any significant changes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) TEMPO MVFR conds possible at TJSJ/TIST/TISX thru 16/23z due to SHRA/TSRA. A lingering frontal system over the Atlantic waters will continue to produce strong thunderstorms over the local waters, and under westerly steering winds this can lead to intermittent periods of SHRA/TSRA once again tonight at TJBQ/TJSJ. The 16/12z TJSJ sounding indicated WSW winds at 8-14 kt blo kt blo 3000ft. && .MARINE... A frontal system over the Atlantic offshore waters will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms across the regional waters through the weekend. Light southwesterly winds are expected during this period. Pulses of a long period northerly swell will reach the Atlantic waters and passages from Friday into early next week. Hazardous seas building up to 8 feet are expected from late Sunday into Monday, triggering Small Craft Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will return from Sunday onward. && .BEACH FORECAST... Pulses of long period northerly swells will gradually increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents along the west, north, and eastern beaches of the islands during the next few days. High surf conditions and minor coastal flooding are likely on Sunday and Monday as the northerly swell builds seas between 6 and 8 feet around 12 to 14 seconds, which translates to breaking waves between 10 and 15 feet. Dangerous swimming conditions, minor beach erosion, and life-threatening rip currents are expected from this weekend into early next week. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248597 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today and at NE FL - Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon - Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact Area: St. Johns River Basin South of Duval County && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging will extend across the region this period, from a high centered over the Great Lakes. A trough is expected to be along the east coast of local area. Onshore flow around the high will be enhanced by the trough, leading to elevated and gusty winds along the coast. Dry weather will persist this period. Highs Today will be near seasonal averages, and below Tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, especially in areas where inland water ways and swampy areas add to low level moisture. Have extended the coastal flood advisory through this evening for afternoon tide cycle. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A ridge of high pressure will extend across the area Friday, from a center over the eastern Great Lakes. Weak troughing will persist along the coast, which will enhance onshore flow. Friday will continue the stretch of dry weather with highs a bit below average. The high pressure ridge will move off shore Friday night through Saturday. While the onshore flow will continue under this pattern, the coastal trough is expected to dissipate. As a result coastal winds will be lighter. The dry weather will continue through Saturday. Lows Friday night will be below average, with highs a little below on Saturday. Ridging keeps the dry weather in place into Saturday night, with temperatures continuing below average. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will move off to the east Sunday, allowing a cold front to move into the area Sunday night. This front may not be able to push all the way through Sunday night, before lifting back to the north of the area Monday into Tuesday. If this weekends front does not produce rain, the next significant chance will come with another front Wednesday. However, this front is also expected to weaken as it moves into area. So, at this point leaving chances less than 10 percent. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday into Sunday night, then near normal for Monday. Lows will be below normal both Monday night and Tuesday night, with above normal highs for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Overall, VFR conditions and gusty northeasterly winds will persist through tonight. Pre-dawn, MVFR visibilities are likely at VQQ, conditions will improve after sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will prevail to the north northeast through Saturday. A weak coastal trough will persist through Friday. The high will move off to the east Sunday. A weakening cold front will move into the region and stall Sunday night into Monday, before lifting back to the north. Weak high pressure will be over the area Tuesday. Rip Currents: SE GA - High Risk through Tonight, then Moderate. NE FL - High Risk through Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 79 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 65 76 63 77 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 61 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 60 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1248595 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1143 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher today, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist into early next. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Isolated activity expected today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The warm and mostly dry pattern continues today, with temperatures generally skewing about 5 degrees warmer than average. That translates to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s, with a few spots up around 90 degrees. However, a plume of higher PWATs is pushing towards the region, increasing atmospheric moisture over SE Texas. Isolated showers, primarily at the coast and offshore, are expected today as a result. Moisture levels increase further on Friday and Saturday ahead of an eastward progressing deep-layer trough in the mid/upper levels and a frontal boundary at the surface. This should result in a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days. PoPs generally average 30-40% across the CWA both days. We cannot rule out isolated stronger thunderstorms on Saturday. For now, the best dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be north of our region. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our northern Piney Woods counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. The flow pattern for next week appears to be somewhat amplified and progressive, with the SE Texas atmosphere being intermittently influenced why eastward moving troughs and ridges. We find ourselves on the backside of the aforementioned mid/upper trough on Sunday, before a ridge takes hold late Sunday into Monday. But this may be short-lived, as another trough looks to eject eastward from the Rockies into central CONUS by Tuesday. A frontal boundary on Tuesday could bring isolated to scattered showers to the region. Afternoon temperatures expected to remain in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. However, we could be talking about some of the "coolest" air of the season by the second half of the week. But by "coolest" I mean highs mostly in the low/mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. So the current predicted cooldown is more of a reversion to normal for a couple days. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A returning southeast flow will begin transporting Gulf moisture back into the region today. Along with it comes some increasing cloud cover, albeit VFR between now and the overnight hours. Some of the hires guidance depicts some spotty, weak shra from time- to-time along/south of the I-10 corridor, but overall coverage and impacts don`t support the mention in this set of TAFs. As low level moisture increases overnight, we could see some fog development...moreso the Brazos Valley area (and the more susceptible outlying non-metro terminals). Model forecast soundings suggest to look for potential intermittent ceilings somewhere around 2500ft developing elsewhere before sunrise. Next shift might need to begin mentioning some PROB30s in regards to daytime shra/tstm potential Friday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light to moderate east to southeast winds should increase somewhat as we head into Friday and Saturday. Winds today are expected to average 7-12 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Isolated to widely scattered showers expected as well. For Friday into Saturday morning, winds are expected to average 12-17 knots with Gulf seas building to 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to decrease somewhat while gradually veering to the south and south-southwest on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions expected in the front`s wake on Sunday, with winds veering from the west to north, northeast, east, then southeast between Sunday morning and Monday morning. Southeasterly flow is expected to persist until a cold front brings the potential for moderate northeasterly winds (15-20 knots) by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Atmospheric conditions are generally improving regarding the fire weather risk. This is due to higher moisture levels bringing higher relatively humidity. That being said, vegetation remains dry, providing plenty of fuel. Therefore, the fire risk remains enhanced despite the improving atmospheric conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 87 69 92 / 10 20 0 30 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 90 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 85 / 30 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248594 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 PM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1217 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in, mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast. Looking at current surface observations inland and along the immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX (Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance across the entire region. Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing amplifying across the northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will gradually slide southward across our region today. The development of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features. Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours, especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region. With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will result in gusty surface winds across most of the region, especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the upper 80s across southwestern Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid- level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis, subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region, any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface ridging will develop across most of the United States during this time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are possible during the early to mid portion of the week across southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Slight chance of passing showers along the east coast through the afternoon and evening today. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions could be possible as a result, but confidence remains low. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast overnight, but could grow gusty at times beginning early Friday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7 feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended further out in time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 74 84 73 83 / 20 10 10 0 West Kendall 72 85 70 85 / 20 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 74 85 71 85 / 30 10 10 0 Homestead 74 84 73 83 / 20 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 74 83 72 83 / 30 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 74 83 73 83 / 30 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 74 86 72 86 / 30 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 74 84 72 83 / 30 10 10 0 Boca Raton 74 84 72 84 / 30 10 10 0 Naples 71 89 68 88 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk from 8 PM EDT this evening through Friday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248593 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1040 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low level moisture returns briefly tonight into Friday with slight higher rain chances. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence on Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A fairly quiet start to the Florida Keys. We have a lingering ongoing surge from earlier this morning pushing across the island chain. Winds along the marine platforms are generally around 15 knots from the north and northeast. Meanwhile, radar shows a narrow band of showers that developed along a convergence zone just off the southeast Florida coast. These showers are oriented nearly north to south and have been moving across our easternmost waters this morning. This line is beginning to break down as we lose that convergence. Made a small change to up winds across the coastal areas to account for the ongoing leftover surge. Otherwise, dry air will hold for today and limit rain chances to the offshore waters south of the island chain. Some low level moisture is moving down across the southwest North Atlantic and is progged to move in by the late afternoon but more likely closer to the evening. Slightly higher rain chances is the main result. Another nocturnal surge is expected tonight, followed by a general freshening breezes as high pressure builds across the eastern half of the U.S. && .MARINE... Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required sometime over the weekend, depending on the strength of the high pressure system. Shower coverage may increase Friday night because of a southward moving convergence boundary. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions will prevail with northeast breezes slackening into the afternoon briefly, then freshening late overnight once again. A slightly higher chance for showers is possible tonight but will leave for future amendments as necessary. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 30 Marathon 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248592 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1038 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warm and dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with worsening drought and elevated fire concerns. Use caution if burning outdoors. - A weakening frontal system brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Sunday night, but rain amounts are expected to be light. Overall rain coverage has decreased with this forecast cycle. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The update consisted of lowering dewpoints a few degrees over inland areas this afternoon. This brings the dewpoint forecast more in line with MOS guidance and persistence from recent days, given no substantial change in the air mass. This has the effect of also lowering relative humidity this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A strong upper ridge shifting further into the MS Valley from the west fosters very warm & dry conditions today. This morning starts off with some patchy fog mainly around the I-75 corridor. Daytime temperatures then peak to the mid-upper 80s under a prevailing NE wind thanks to surface high pressure anchored across the Midwest. Expect an afternoon seabreeze to develop, then march towards I-10. For tonight, somewhat light winds and clear skies promote modest radiational cooling, so look for temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging weakens and flattens out in response to a broad northern stream trough moving through the Northern Plains-Great Lakes region. The latter sends a cold front down that will initially serve as focus for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across Appalachia. However, as the frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South, fleeting upper-level support looks to weaken convection, especially with eastward extent. The latest model guidance shows a slower/diminishing convective trend, so max PoPs have decreased to slight chance with this forecast cycle for Sunday-Sunday night. The best potential is in our Central Timezone Counties. Forecast amounts have also dropped off considerably, which is deflating when it comes to drought relief. East to SE winds develop ahead of the front, then turn northerly following FroPa late Sunday or early Monday. There are some indications that the frontal boundary may stall just to our south as the flow aloft becomes zonal, so lingering showers over parts of the Tri-State area are a possibility. A ridge of high pressure temporarily builds overhead early next week with a slight cooldown amidst continued dry weather. Another shot of rain is on the table near the end or just beyond this forecast period, but prospects don`t look particularly great given meager moisture return. Forecast high temperatures are in the 80s with lows in the 50s & 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An ASCAT pass at 0208Z showed light winds below 10 kts west of Apalachicola and easterlies over Apalachee Bay generally less than 15 kts. CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northeast breezes prevail today before turning east to southeasterly heading into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. A nocturnal easterly surge is expected across Apalachee Bay tonight, such that small craft may need to exercise caution. Chances for showers return to the forecast, mainly across the Panhandle waters on Sunday. Meanwhile, winds turn more southerly during frontal passage, followed by quickly clocking around from southwesterly to easterly on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Continued warm and dry conditions will make for elevated fire concerns through the first half of this weekend mainly because of very dry fuels. Prevailing NE winds today turn easterly on Friday, then southeasterly ahead of an approaching frontal system by Saturday. Expect a seabreeze to approach I-10 the next couple of afternoons. Daily RH bottoms out in the 30s to 40s away from the immediate coast, but recover nicely each night. Rain chances, albeit slight, hold off until Sunday with the best potential mainly west of the Apalachicola-Flint River Valley. Wetting rains appear unlikely && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days. The best potential is on Sunday from a cold front. However, the latest trends show a weakening frontal system with precipitation coverage and forecast amounts notably decreasing. Drought will therefore continue and is expected to worsen areawide. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248591 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1005 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-levels consist of a strong trough off the East Coast and a strong ridge over the MS Valley Region. This is bringing NNW flow overhead. At the surface, a dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery continuing to stretch into our region. Expect dry conditions with some passing clouds. Highs will range from the lower to middle 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s near the Altamaha River and vicinity. The combination of clear to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will lead to plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the upper 40s far inland, to the mid 50s along our SC coast and the mid 60s along our GA coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature through Saturday. Aloft, a mid level ridge will gradually shift overhead. This pattern will favor dry and quiet conditions. Highs will span the 70s on Friday, coolest over the Charleston tri-county. Temperatures will then trend to normal for Saturday. Lows Friday night will mainly be in the 50s, although some spots over the northern interior could drop into the upper 40s. A mid level trough will shift towards the East Coast on Sunday. At the surface, offshore high pressure extending over the area will begin to weaken as a cold front approaches the area. The front and associated rain chances should stay west of the area through the daylight hours. It will be the warmest day of the set, with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front is expected to push through the area early in the period, Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance has trended drier, with the threat for rainfall pretty minimal. PoPs are no higher than 20%. High pressure will briefly return thereafter, before another front possibly impacts the area towards the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers associated with a passing cold front Sunday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery stretching into our region. NNE winds will prevail, perhaps increasing slightly during the evening hours. Based on buoy observations and model data, adjusted the Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters so it`s now in effect for this evening and the overnight. This is for 6 ft seas, mainly across the far eastern portion of these waters. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will subside on Friday as the pressure gradient eases. Some 6 foot seas could linger over the far outer Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing through the waters Sunday night or early Monday. A few gusts near 25 knots will be possible ahead of the front, but it appears pretty marginal at this point. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning. NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties for this afternoon`s high tide, which is forecast to reach minor flood stage in the Charleston Harbor. There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ049-050. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248589 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Dry conditions will persist through Friday, with increasing rain chances this weekend. - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase on Friday, with a high risk on Saturday and Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Dry weather conditions continue to prevail through Friday as upper ridging remains in place. Upper ridging gradually breaks down Friday night into Saturday as upper troughing transits the central into south-central CONUS. Forecast guidance remains variable on the exact amplitude, tilt, and timing of the troughs passage which will have an impact on timing and potential intensity of rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Right now it appears the most likely period for isolated to scattered showers and storms will exist from the early morning hours Sunday through Sunday afternoon. A cold front pushes through the area Sunday evening once again bringing dry weather back into the forecast Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week for afternoon highs. Middle to upper 80`s can be expected through Saturday with lower to middle 80`s Sunday into Monday, perhaps warming back up by Tuesday into the middle 80`s. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more variable, gradually warming each night from upper 50`s and lower 60`s tonight to middle to upper 60`s by Saturday night. In the wake of the cold front, we return to the lower to middle 50`s over the interior and middle 50`s to lower 60`s nearer the coast Sunday night through Tuesday night. For folks heading out to our Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches this weekend our rip current risk will be steadily increasing. We go from a Low risk today and tonight to a Moderate risk for the day Friday into Friday night. By Saturday, a High risk for rip currents will be present, likely lasting through the day Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, our rip current risk will decrease Monday to a Moderate risk. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions should persist throughout the forecast with only some minor ground fog at a few locations this morning. Winds will be light out of the northeast becoming southerly during the afternoon. BB-8 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light mainly southeasterly flow develops this afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow Saturday shifts southerly to southwesterly Sunday ahead of a cold front. Offshore flow Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 88 63 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 85 68 82 70 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 85 69 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 91 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 88 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 88 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 89 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248587 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 722 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-levels consist of a strong trough off the East Coast and a strong ridge over the MS Valley Region. This is bringing NNW flow overhead. At the surface, a dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery continuing to stretch into our region. Expect dry conditions with some passing clouds. Highs will range from the lower to middle 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s near the Altamaha River and vicinity. The combination of clear to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will lead to plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the upper 40s far inland, to the mid 50s along our SC coast and the mid 60s along our GA coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature through Saturday. Aloft, a mid level ridge will gradually shift overhead. This pattern will favor dry and quiet conditions. Highs will span the 70s on Friday, coolest over the Charleston tri-county. Temperatures will then trend to normal for Saturday. Lows Friday night will mainly be in the 50s, although some spots over the northern interior could drop into the upper 40s. A mid level trough will shift towards the East Coast on Sunday. At the surface, offshore high pressure extending over the area will begin to weaken as a cold front approaches the area. The front and associated rain chances should stay west of the area through the daylight hours. It will be the warmest day of the set, with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front is expected to push through the area early in the period, Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance has trended drier, with the threat for rainfall pretty minimal. PoPs are no higher than 20%. High pressure will briefly return thereafter, before another front possibly impacts the area towards the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers associated with a passing cold front Sunday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery stretching into our region. NNE winds will prevail, perhaps increasing slightly during the evening hours. Based on buoy observations and model data, adjusted the Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters so it`s now in effect for this evening and the overnight. This is for 6 ft seas, mainly across the far eastern portion of these waters. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will subside on Friday as the pressure gradient eases. Some 6 foot seas could linger over the far outer Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing through the waters Sunday night or early Monday. A few gusts near 25 knots will be possible ahead of the front, but it appears pretty marginal at this point. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning. NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248586 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Areas of fog have begun to develop in the Bayou Parishes, River Parishes, Northshore, and Mississippi Coast over the past couple of hours. The fog is not extensively dense at this time with most visibilities ranging between 1 and 3 miles and a review of cameras shows that is largely ground fog. The fog is forming beneath a strong surface based temperature inversion that has helped to decouple the boundary layer from the surface. Rising dewpoints in the lower 60s are also helping to contribute to the fog as temperatures cool to the dewpoint. Given these visibilities and the shallow nature of the fog, have opted to not issue a dense fog advisory at this time. PG && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Upper ridging centered over Arkansas, with an upper trough along the Nevada-Utah border. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Lake Superior, extending southward along the length of the Mississippi River Valley. Regional upper air soundings during the evening continued to show precipitable water values near the 25th percentile (about 0.9 inches). This is reflected in the lack of any significant cloud cover over land until near the Ohio River. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the mid and upper 80s, although Bogalusa did reach 90. The upper ridge will drift eastward over the next 36 hours to near a Pensacola to Detroit line. The surface high will shift eastward as well, to be centered over the Appalachians Friday afternoon. By that time, the upper trough will be exiting the Rockies. Low level flow will become more noticeably onshore by Friday. Moisture levels won`t really have responded by Friday evening, with precipitable water values still only near the 50th percentile (1.25 inches). Probably not much more than high cloud cover, even on Friday afternoon. Afternoon highs will again be in the 85 to 90 range for most of the area this afternoon, a few degrees below record levels. Highs Friday should be a couple degrees lower, as the more significant onshore flow will be crossing waters that are only around 80F. Any fog development this morning should be rather isolated and near warmer waters, but might be a little more abundant Friday morning, especially near and north of Interstate 12. Should burn off quickly in either case. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 While the main portion of the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes Saturday, the synoptic models hold a southern stream piece of the trough somewhere between El Paso and Phoenix. This brings into question whether the local area will really see a cold frontal passage over the weekend. The operational ECMWF from Wednesday morning does eventually bring a weakened front through the area on Sunday, but the 18z GFS never does. This would certainly lend credence to the NBM holding onto precipitation chances through the daytime hours Sunday. Moisture levels do eventually improve enough to support shower and thunderstorm development Saturday night into Sunday, but forecast amounts aren`t likely to be sufficient to eliminate the precipitation deficit most areas are experiencing over the last couple months. Probably well less than an inch in most areas. The main storm track is expected to remain north of the local area for early to middle portions of next week, but a shortwave moving through the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley and its associated cold front could bring another minor chance of precipitation sometime around Tuesday. Temperature guidance was generally a blend between the the ECMWF and GFS solutions, with the GFS being considerably warmer for Sunday into the first half of next week. Sunday into Monday will be dependent on the cold frontal passage. From the 12z Wednesday runs, morning lows Monday (10/20) showed about a 15-20 degree range over the northern half of the area, with the NBM leaning toward the cooler solution. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Areas of radiation fog and low stratus are impacting a few of the terminals this morning in response to a strong surface based temperature inversion and rising dewpoints. The fog is most extensive at HUM where prevailing VLIFR conditions will remain in place through 14z to 15z. At NEW and HDC, satellite analysis and observations indicate other fog and low stratus banks moving toward or developing near these terminals. IFR ceilings and visibilties of around 200 to 300 feet and 1 to 3 miles can be expected through 14 to 15z. After 15z, daytime heating will allow the inversion to mix out, and prevailing VFR conditions will take hold. However, conditions look favorable for a more widespread fog and low stratus event tonight into tomorrow morning. IFR conditions are in the forecast as early as 08z at HUM and BTR where fog probabilities are highest. PG && .MARINE... Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but currently do not see any prolonged periods with wind speeds of 20 knots. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 89 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 87 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 88 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248585 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 718 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today and at NE FL - Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday Afternoon - Minor Tidal Flooding Continues into the Weekend. Main Impact Area: St. Johns River Basin South of Duval County && .UPDATE... Issued at 718 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 No major updates needed on the forecast this morning. A beautiful day is forecast, with sunny skies, northeasterly winds, and high temperatures in the lower 80s inland and upper 70s near the Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging will extend across the region this period, from a high centered over the Great Lakes. A trough is expected to be along the east coast of local area. Onshore flow around the high will be enhanced by the trough, leading to elevated and gusty winds along the coast. Dry weather will persist this period. Highs Today will be near seasonal averages, and below Tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, especially in areas where inland water ways and swampy areas add to low level moisture. Have extended the coastal flood advisory through this evening for afternoon tide cycle. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A ridge of high pressure will extend across the area Friday, from a center over the eastern Great Lakes. Weak troughing will persist along the coast, which will enhance onshore flow. Friday will continue the stretch of dry weather with highs a bit below average. The high pressure ridge will move off shore Friday night through Saturday. While the onshore flow will continue under this pattern, the coastal trough is expected to dissipate. As a result coastal winds will be lighter. The dry weather will continue through Saturday. Lows Friday night will be below average, with highs a little below on Saturday. Ridging keeps the dry weather in place into Saturday night, with temperatures continuing below average. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will move off to the east Sunday, allowing a cold front to move into the area Sunday night. This front may not be able to push all the way through Sunday night, before lifting back to the north of the area Monday into Tuesday. If this weekends front does not produce rain, the next significant chance will come with another front Wednesday. However, this front is also expected to weaken as it moves into area. So, at this point leaving chances less than 10 percent. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday into Sunday night, then near normal for Monday. Lows will be below normal both Monday night and Tuesday night, with above normal highs for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 718 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Outside of temporary MVFR ceilings at SSI this morning, VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites with gusty northeasterly winds developing later this morning. Tonight, MVFR visibilities are likely at VQQ pre-dawn. && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will prevail to the north northeast through Saturday. A weak coastal trough will persist through Friday. The high will move off to the east Sunday. A weakening cold front will move into the region and stall Sunday night into Monday, before lifting back to the north. Weak high pressure will be over the area Tuesday. Rip Currents: SE GA - High Risk through Tonight, then Moderate. NE FL - High Risk through Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 54 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 64 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 82 61 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 79 67 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 85 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 61 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1248584 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 720 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in, mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast. Looking at current surface observations inland and along the immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX (Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance across the entire region. Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing amplifying across the northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will gradually slide southward across our region today. The development of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features. Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours, especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region. With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will result in gusty surface winds across most of the region, especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the upper 80s across southwestern Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid- level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis, subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region, any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface ridging will develop across most of the United States during this time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are possible during the early to mid portion of the week across southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light and variable winds early this morning will become more northeasterly later today. Slight chance of passing showers along the East Coast until around 18Z. Brief periods of sub-VFR conditions could be possible as a result, but confidence remains low. Winds will remain light and out of the northeast overnight, but could grow gusty at times early tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7 feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended further out in time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 74 84 73 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 87 72 85 70 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 87 74 85 71 / 30 30 10 10 Homestead 85 74 84 73 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 74 83 72 / 30 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 74 83 73 / 30 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 88 74 86 72 / 30 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 74 84 72 / 30 30 10 10 Boca Raton 86 74 84 72 / 30 30 10 10 Naples 88 71 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248583 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 629 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday with warmer than normal temperatures. * There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through Thursday night over the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next week. The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times. The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday, potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday night-Wednesday. Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low (20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters (Tuesday night through Thursday night). An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Calm winds this morning are expected to pickup out of the southeast late this morning, with speeds increasing to around 10 knots. Few to scattered cumulus is expected to develop this afternoon. Light and variable winds and mostly clear skies are expected to return this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through next Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248581 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 702 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Gusty marine winds possible late week and into the weekend. - Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 702 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Northeast winds become north to north-northwest this afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Broad upper ridging extends northward through the Mississippi River Valley. The surface reflection is a 1025 mb high pressure center located over the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge and surface high will slowly move east-southeastward over the next couple of days and will be located along the eastern seaboard by Saturday morning. This pattern will keep a predominant northeast wind flow, partly cloudy skies and low rain chances over the Florida peninsula through Saturday. By Sunday morning, the high has shifted farther southeastward off the Carolina coastline between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Farther to the north, an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southward through the Ohio River Valley. The trailing edge of this weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Sunday. This will bring a shift in the winds to the southeast and southwest and also bring a slight uptick in moisture over the region. A stray shower may be possible as the front moves through on Sunday into early Monday. The front pushes south and east of Florida and dissipates on Monday as high pressure builds back in over the southeast U.S. Pleasant weather is expected for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure north of the area will produce rain-free conditions and prevailing northeast winds around 10-15 knots through the day, with some brief periods of increasing winds to Cautionary level overnight tonight and again on Friday night. The only chance of any showers will come on Sunday as a weak front moves across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Pleasant weather expected for most of the period with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday. No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 69 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 69 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 67 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 68 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 84 70 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248580 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:21 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 703 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Today with ocean effect clouds along the southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers towards the Cape and Islands later today and tonight. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points * Cool and Gusty NW winds up to 30-40mph with chilly temps in the low 50s. Cool and windy today as cold air advection continues, supported by the cold pool aloft dropping south. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-50s even under sunny skies across the interior. Skies will be more overcast across the Cape and Islands, with ocean- effect strato-cumulus clouds forming as cold air moves over the relatively warm ocean waters still in the upper 50s to low 60s. There could be some ocean effect rain showers late in the day, but boundary layer conditions are rather dry, and rain will struggle to reach the ground. Diurnal heating today will allow mixing of winds up to 850mb today where winds are around 25-35 knots (28-40mph) will mix down to the surface this afternoon. The gusty winds will make it feel like the 40s today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Points * Windy and Cold tonight. Lows in the 30s. * Decreasing winds and slightly warmer. * Minor splash over flooding possible with the evening high tide. See coastal flood section below. Tonight: Winds at 850mb increase to 35-45 knots overnight, but with the loss of diurnal heating, it will be much harder to mix those gusts down to the surface. It will still be breezy overnight with gusts around 20-25mph. With overnight lows dropping into the 30s away from the coasts, the wind chill values will fall into the upper 20s. Tomorrow: The cold pool begins to move offshore on Friday with an upper-level ridge building in behind. With rising heights and weakening cold air advection, high temperatures will be able to rebound slightly into the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly sunny skies. Stronger winds aloft begin to move offshore on Friday, meaning we will still have gusty northerly winds in the morning, but becoming light in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun * Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain Details... Saturday/Sunday... A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. 850T warm significantly by Saturday and while we will not be able to mix that deep or fully realize at the surface...still expect highs to reach the lower to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts east of the region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and 70 on Sunday. Early Next Week... A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure system developing near or south of southern New England. If this were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today: High Confidence VFR with 4-5k ft cigs over the Cape/Islands expanding across eastern MA this afternoon. Patchy MVFR possible outer Cape late today. NW gusts 25-30 kt. Tonight: Moderate Confidence VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tomorrow night. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Tomorrow: High Confidence VFR. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds gusting up to 30 knots today. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2kft turn more northerly and increase to 35-40 knots. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds up to 25 knots. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Through Friday Gale-force winds begin across the eastern waters later this morning as a strong cold front moves through. Gale-force winds will last into Thursday night, ending Friday morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale- force winds are not expected after Friday morning, Winds will remain around 25-30 knots, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Coastal Flood: Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight, which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+ feet. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248579 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher on Thursday, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms gradually increase Thursday going into the weekend with a weak cold front approaching the area on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 I know it`s spooky season and all, but I really want to know why summerlike weather keeps coming back like a zombie?! Just when you think it`s over...BAM! back in the 90s. At least on Wednesday most locations only topped out in the upper 80s. However, our normal high temperature is in the low 80s. I was curious on when was the last time we actually had below normal daytime temperatures (for the City of Houston)...it was September 9th...big yikes. We owe a big ol` thank you to La Nina for that! If you really want to be spooked, take a look temperature outlooks from CPC! Alright, that`s enough delaying. There is a weak cold front to talk about at least (GFS: Not so fast my friend!)...yeah even that has recently come into question. The main ridge axis will slide eastward throughout the day on Thursday as an embedded shortwave trough pushes through the area. With onshore flow back, there looks to be enough moisture to generate some isolated showers as early as near sunrise right along the coast. Isolated rain chances stick around into the afternoon hours as we could see some development along the seabreeze. Most of us will just see an increase in cloud cover though, which will be enough to relegate high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s. As onshore flow continues to increase going into Friday, we`ll see PW values surge into the 1.6-2.0" range. This means that we`ll have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms along the seabreeze, and we could see that additional convection further inland as PVA lingers from the embedded shortwave trough. These rain chances stick around going into Saturday as an upper level trough and an associated weak cold front begin to push through Texas. More on that later...but temperatures on Saturday will hot for this time of the year with highs mainly in the low 90s. With elevated humidity added into that, we`ll see heat index values in the upper 90s. The weak cold front looks to potentially begin to push through the region on early Sunday morning, but as y`all saw earlier the GFS has something different in mind. The 18Z deterministic GFS stalls the front out north of the Brazos Valley and never has the front push through. "But that`s just the deterministic, what about the ensembles?!" Well I`m glad you asked! The majority of the GFS ensemble members keeps PW values around or above 1.4" through the middle of next week, which is NOT indicative of drier air filtering in. Compare that to the 18Z Euro where the majority of its ensemble members reflect PW values below 0.5" on Sunday, which IS indicative of drier air filtering in behind a front. So, we`ll either be very dry or we keep the humidity...and that`s today`s fun with ensemble guidance! If the front pushes through or not, we`re still expecting a quick turnaround of onshore flow by Monday as another ridge looks to build in briefly. There are some signs of another cold front next week, but not going to spend much time talking about so that I don`t jinx that front too. Essentially, another trough pushes through the Central Plains in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe and that could push a cold front through the area. There is at least some downward trend in temperatures next week, but we`ll continue to monitor trends. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A returning southeast flow will begin transporting Gulf moisture back into the region today. Along with it comes some increasing cloud cover, albeit VFR between now and the overnight hours. Some of the hires guidance depicts some spotty, weak shra from time- to-time along/south of the I-10 corridor, but overall coverage and impacts don`t support the mention in this set of TAFs. As low level moisture increases overnight, we could see some fog development...moreso the Brazos Valley area (and the more susceptible outlying non-metro terminals). Model forecast soundings suggest to look for potential intermittent ceilings somewhere around 2500ft developing elsewhere before sunrise. Next shift might need to begin mentioning some PROB30s in regards to daytime shra/tstm potential Friday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Onshore flow makes a return tonight into early Thursday morning leading to the gradual increase of moisture through the end of the work week. Isolated shower/storm chances return as early as Thursday morning near the Bays and coastal Gulf waters. Shower/storm chances increase going into Friday as onshore flow increases. Wind speeds may approach the caution flag threshold on Friday night into Saturday morning to along with seas elevating to around 4 ft. This increased onshore flow will lead to an increased risk in rip currents late Friday and into the weekend. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms persists until a frontal boundary pushes through on Sunday. There are some questions on if the front pushes all the way offshore though, which will have an impact on rain chances and winds. Even if it does push through, onshore flow looks to make a quick return by Monday. Batiste && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 As onshore flow makes a return to Southeast Texas late tonight/early Thursday morning, we`ll finally get to see some higher minimum RH values. There will be good RH recovery tonight into Thursday morning as most areas will be above 80%. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon will be in the 40-55% range, which is much more manageable than what we`ve seen over the past few days. Rain chances will still be on the slim side, but could see a few isolated showers/storms. I mention that because fuels are still dry especially north of I-10. The latest Texas A&M Forest Service reflects a moderate to high fire danger rating for Thursday, with the high fire danger rating being for portions of the Piney Woods. Please continue to exercise caution when working with open flames or equipment that can cause sparks. Moisture and chances for showers/storms will continue to go on an upward trend Friday and through the weekend as our eyes will be on an approaching weak cold front. Rain chances stick around until that weak cold front pushes through the area, but recent model guidance indicates that there is some potential that the front doesn`t push all the way through the area. If the front manages to push through, then we could see an overlap of drier air (minimum RH values 20-30%) and elevated enough winds to create another day of elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday especially for our northern areas. We`ll continue to keep an eye on both the weak cold front and the potential for elevated fire weather conditions as the weekend approaches. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 87 65 87 70 / 10 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 87 70 87 74 / 20 30 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 76 85 77 / 30 30 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248578 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 601 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 East to southeast onshore flow will bring a gradual increase in surface moisture over the next couple of days. In the short term, this means we could see a few streamer showers along the coast Thursday morning as moisture convergence approaches 50 g/kg/12hr, especially north of Port Aransas. As is typical, most of these will produce only very light rainfall amounts and should be very brief. We`ll also have a noticeable increase in humidity as dewpoints approach 70 near the coast. An inverted trough along the coast Thursday will be absorbed into an approaching mid-level trough Thursday night into Friday. The energy associated with the trough will bring increased rain chances, but mainly over the offshore waters Thursday night and Friday. We will maintain a 10-20% probability of precip in the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. For the weekend we`ll be watching a cold front approach...and then watching it most likely stall north of our area, once again leaving us waiting for our first good cool down of the fall. That said, the ECMWF deterministic run and ensembles are a little farther south with it than previous runs have been, so will keep a little bit of hope that we could see it push through. Regardless of if it pushes through, the airmass ahead of it is too dry to bring any real chance for rainfall, and temperatures are not likely to drop much for the daytime, but a decrease in humidity should bring slightly cooler overnight lows, mainly inland. Return southeasterly flow returns by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Patchy fog is still possible for ALI and VCT which could reduce visibility to MVFR. Otherwise, expect primarily VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early Thursday morning (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25-35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. A boundary moving into the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for the day. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low throughout the period and generally remain under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 86 66 88 69 / 10 0 40 0 Laredo 92 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 87 73 87 75 / 10 10 30 10 Cotulla 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 84 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248577 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 643 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday, as high pressure as moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend, as the high slides offshore, with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather Monday through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry, cooler and breezy today. - Chilly tonight with diminishing winds inland. Patchy frost will be possible into early Friday morning in the piedmont. The latest wx analysis depicts an upper level trough spinning over northern New England and Atlantic Canada, with an upper level ridge across the south-central CONUS. The NW flow aloft is helping to push a dry cold front south of the local area, early this morning, with sfc high pressure (~1026mb) centered over the Great Lakes region drifting to the E-SE. The sky is mainly clear, with northerly winds averaging 5-10 mph inland, with 10-20 mph winds, gusting to around 25 mph near the coast. Temperatures are mild due to mixing, ranging through the 50s, with a few lower 60s at the immediate coast in the SE. Winds over the interior will tend to drop off towards sunrise, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s, with 50s at the coast. For today, the upper low moves well SE off the New England coast as the upper ridge amplifies into the upper midwest. The sfc high becomes centered over the eastern Great Lakes later this aftn into this evening. Breezy N winds are expected with gusts to 20-25 mph, and low dew pts falling into the 30s will lead to min RH values of 30-35% across much of the area (with some places along/W of I-95 perhaps falling to 25-30% for a few hrs). Still does not look like a significant Fire WX threat given the shorter days this time of year and with fuels not being particularly dry. For high temperatures, went a little above the NBM due to deep mixing in the dry airmass, but high temperatures today will still be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday, with mid to upper 60s well inland, and lower 60s on the eastern shore. Model consensus shifts the sfc high SSE overnight, from the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley in the evening, becoming centered across the central Appalachians by 12Z Friday (still W of the CWA). This remains similar to previous runs, and is not an optimal position for a long night of radiational cooling and ideal decoupling for most of the CWA. Diminishing winds are expected after sunset, the exception being near the coast where it will stay mixed and breezy overnight. Do anticipate some patchy frost in the far western zones from Farmville to Louisa/Fluvanna counties where conditions could eventually completely decouple after midnight, and allow readings to fall as low as the mid 30s. Opted not to issue a Frost Advisory this cycle given only patchy frost development, but will mention these areas in the HWO. Elsewhere, did blend in some of the cooler guidance for the typical cooler spots along and W of I-95, with lows averaging in the upper 30s to lower 40s across central and south central VA. Closer to the coast, warmer water temperatures and more mixing will keeps lows mostly in the low- mid 40s or warmer, with places at the immediate coast in the SE in the lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry Friday/Friday night, a little warmer Saturday. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and another day with a mainly sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. Clear Friday evening, then increasing high clouds stream over to the east of the upper ridge axis overnight. This will keep it a little warmer Friday night, with lows mainly 40-45F, with the coolest temperatures likely across interior SE VA/NE NC where it`ll stay clear through through much of the night. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and turning a little warmer, as the upper level ridge axis shifts east to the coast later in the day, and off the coast by Sunday morning. WInds will be light enough for some onshore flow at the coast where highs range in the upper 60s, with low-mid 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warm on Sunday ahead of a cold front. - Best chance for rain is Sunday night, followed by mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures next week. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. The latest 00Z/16 models still show some differences with respect to the evolution of the system, the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the potential for secondary sfc low development compared to the GFS/CMC. The associated ensembles reflect these differences in potential rainfall chances with the EPS being the only one that shows any chance for 0.50"+ of rainfall Sun night/early Monday (and even the EPS has trended drier than 24 hrs ago). Either way, most if not all of the daytime hrs Sunday look dry (will have 15-25% PoPs late in the day across the NW). Increasing southerly slow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid to upper 70s under a partly sunny sky. As noted above, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negative tilt as it reaches the western slope of the mountains, which may cause the precip to split over the area and/or struggle east of the Appalachians. Have likely PoPs Sun night confined to the far NE, with only 30-50% PoPs elsewhere (lowest in the SE). Behind the trough, temperatures will be near to a little below normal, with mainly dry conditions expected Mon-Tue, with another upper trough forecast to become centered over the NE CONUS by midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 640 AM EDT Thursday... Dry, with clear to mostly clear skies will persist through the 12Z/16 TAF period across the region. Winds remain elevated along the immediate coast throughout the period (i.e. ORF), and will become elevated inland, mainly ~14Z until ~21Z. the wind direction will be northerly, probably more from the NE at ORF, and more from the NNW at SBY. Gusts as high as 20-25 kt are expected. Diminishing winds heading into this evening, though ORF will likely continue gusting to ~20 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Lighter winds return Friday and Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Drying out for Monday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Colder and drier air filters south this morning into early Friday, bringing solid SCA conditions to the local waters. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday into Saturday with improving marine conditions. 1024mb high pressure remains centered over northern MI with low pressure well east of the Atlantic coast. Winds have strengthened back into the 15-25 kt range with gusts 25-30 kt as the cooler and drier air behind a front filters southward and promotes deeper mixing over the relatively warm local waters. Waves in the bay are 2- 4 ft with seas 5-7 ft. Expect SCA conditions to prevail for most of the local waters from this morning into Friday. One exception may be the upper rivers where hi-res guidance shows the winds may not be as strong as previously indicated. Will maintain the ongoing SCA headlines in the rivers for now. Local wind probs continue to back off with respect to the potential for a period of gale-force gusts tonight as an additional surge of cold advection drops southward. Will maintain 20- 25 kt with gust to 30 kt for the bay and coastal waters. Winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the rivers and Currituck Sound. Waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft before decreasing back into the 2-3 ft range by Friday afternoon. NW wind direction should keep seas offshore from building as much as the wind speed would suggest but will maintain 5-7 ft through Friday morning. Seas offshore are forecast to stay above 5 ft into early Saturday, but given the offshore wind direction and low confidence on exactly how fast seas will fall off, have not extended the offshore SCAs any further with this forecast cycle. High pressure builds into the area on Friday with winds rapidly decreasing through the morning and early afternoon. Low level flow becomes southerly early Sunday ahead of the next front. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday into Monday as the gradient tightens ahead of and behind the cold frontal passage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1248576 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday night - Isolated showers across the local waters and along the immediate coast today with dry conditions forecast through this weekend and into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today-Tonight...A weak boundary drifts southward across the local Atlantic waters today through tonight, with some slightly higher moisture present out ahead of the boundary. This will lead to continued development of isolated showers out across the local Atlantic waters, with persistent, breezy northeast flow causing some activity to push onshore along the coast. Conditions are anticipated to remain mostly dry across the interior, though an isolated shower or two may be able to move farther inland. PoPs are forecast to remain between 15 to 20%. Storms are not anticipated to develop with the activity today. As mentioned, winds are forecast to remain breezy today, with wind speeds generally between 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible, especially along the coast. Temperatures reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight. A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised. Friday-Wednesday...The weak boundary moves south of the local the Atlantic waters early Friday, with an area of high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern U.S. late this week into the weekend. This will keep conditions dry and sunny, with winds veering to out of the east-northeast and temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s in the afternoons. Sunday into Monday, the surface high shifts eastward out over the Atlantic as a decaying frontal boundary approaches Florida. Guidance has continued to back off of rain chances across east central Florida Sunday night into Monday, with the NBM now calling for less than a 15% chance of rain. Will continue to monitor this trend in the guidance and adjust the forecast as needed, but currently maintain mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Southeast winds on Sunday become easterly once again Monday and through the remainder of the week, with guidance hinting at local wind enhancements from the east coast sea breeze in the afternoons. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80son Sunday and remain there through the middle of next week. Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A weak boundary moving southward across the local Atlantic waters today into Friday will lead to not only isolated shower development, but also poor to hazardous boating conditions. Breezy northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet are forecast across the local waters through at least Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the offshore waters, with the nearshore Treasure Coast waters joining the advisory at 8 PM tonight. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution across the remaining nearshore waters. Conditions slowly begin to improve late Friday. As high pressure settles across the area this weekend, easterly winds subside to 10 to 15 knots and seas fall to 3 to 5 feet. A brief period of southeasterly winds on Sunday veer to out of the east once again through the middle of next week. Dry conditions are anticipated to continue, though the approach of a weakening frontal boundary late Sunday into Monday could lead to a stray shower or two. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Mainly VFR conditions. However, brief MVFR CIG/VIS will be possible VRB/FPR/SUA in isolated SHRA pushing S/SW off the Atlc. Coverage of showers is forecast to remain limited but will maintain VCSH for southern terminals. North to Northwest flow 5-7 knots to start the TAF period will veer NNE through the morning and increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts near 20 knots, especially along the coast DAB-TIX-MLB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 68 80 64 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 84 68 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 81 68 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 84 71 82 67 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 84 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 66 82 63 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 84 67 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 FPR 84 70 81 66 / 20 20 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1248575 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 624 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the northwest will usher in the coolest air since Spring through the end of the work week. The high will shift offshore ahead of a front over the weekend bringing a gradual warm-up and low rain chances. More high pressure will bring cooler, drier weather back for early next week. && .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none *Temps: below normal Confidence: *High Details: Low to mid-level high pressure will build from the northwest through tonight as a cutoff mid-level low moves SE over the NW Atlantic. Some low-level cold advection will result in an unseasonably chilly air mass keeping temperatures below normal. Highs should generally be in the lower 70s with lows tonight generally in the mid 40s, except a bit milder along the coast and a bit colder inland in some of the typically colder spots due to decent radiational cooling conditions. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be in control through the short term period. We`ll experience slight warming from Friday into Saturday as the ridge aloft starts to shift offshore, allowing a slow recovery of warmer, moist air. Nothing in the way of forcing will impact us during the period so we`ll remain dry with light winds under the center of the high. Highs will warm from near 70 to the mid 70s Friday to Saturday, with low similarly going from the 40s to the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be approaching the area Sunday with surface high pressure slipping offshore. A surge of modest moisture looks to push in or just north of the area Sunday night supporting low POPs with no thunder expected. The trough aloft will be decently amplified with a +30kt jet embedded in it at 925mb. There`s some uncertainty about where this jet will end up, but if it shifts a bit closer to us the forecast for late Sunday into Monday could end up windier than it currently is, gusts near 30mph possible. Otherwise, high pressure will build in afterwards with dry, cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions thru 12Z/17 as high pressure builds into the area bringing more low-level dry air with it. Thus, no concern for low clouds/fog. Breezy northerly winds will be a bit gusty during the daytime, especially during the afternoon. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Very low risk for restrictions Sun night as a cold front passes through with some showers. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build in from the NW pushing a colder/drier air mass over the relatively warm Atlantic waters. This will lead to an enhanced pressure gradient and breezy northerly winds close to Small Craft Advisory levels at times. Significant wave heights could also reach close to Advisory levels (6 ft) near the Gulf Stream but not thinking probability/coverage is sufficient for raising a headline at this time. Friday through Tuesday...High pressure moving overhead will lead to improving marine conditions with winds and seas decreasing through the day Friday. The high will shift offshore Saturday with winds becoming southerly ahead of a cold front. SCA conditions may be possible late Sunday into Monday with the frontal passage. High pressure will build in again for early next week with a return to better conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding is likely into early next week as we approach a full moon, particularly along the SE NC coast as well as the Lower Cape Fear River which includes Downtown Wilmington. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1248574 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Warm and dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with worsening drought and elevated fire concerns. Use caution if burning outdoors. - A weakening frontal system brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Sunday night, but rain amounts are expected to be light. Overall rain coverage has decreased with this forecast cycle. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A strong upper ridge shifting further into the MS Valley from the west fosters very warm & dry conditions today. This morning starts off with some patchy fog mainly around the I-75 corridor. Daytime temperatures then peak to the mid-upper 80s under a prevailing NE wind thanks to surface high pressure anchored across the Midwest. Expect an afternoon seabreeze to develop, then march towards I-10. For tonight, somewhat light winds and clear skies promote modest radiational cooling, so look for temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging weakens and flattens out in response to a broad northern stream trough moving through the Northern Plains-Great Lakes region. The latter sends a cold front down that will initially serve as focus for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across Appalachia. However, as the frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South, fleeting upper-level support looks to weaken convection, especially with eastward extent. The latest model guidance shows a slower/diminishing convective trend, so max PoPs have decreased to slight chance with this forecast cycle for Sunday-Sunday night. The best potential is in our Central Timezone Counties. Forecast amounts have also dropped off considerably, which is deflating when it comes to drought relief. East to SE winds develop ahead of the front, then turn northerly following FroPa late Sunday or early Monday. There are some indications that the frontal boundary may stall just to our south as the flow aloft becomes zonal, so lingering showers over parts of the Tri-State area are a possibility. A ridge of high pressure temporarily builds overhead early next week with a slight cooldown amidst continued dry weather. Another shot of rain is on the table near the end or just beyond this forecast period, but prospects don`t look particularly great given meager moisture return. Forecast high temperatures are in the 80s with lows in the 50s & 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An ASCAT pass at 0208Z showed light winds below 10 kts west of Apalachicola and easterlies over Apalachee Bay generally less than 15 kts. CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northeast breezes prevail today before turning east to southeasterly heading into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. A nocturnal easterly surge is expected across Apalachee Bay tonight, such that small craft may need to exercise caution. Chances for showers return to the forecast, mainly across the Panhandle waters on Sunday. Meanwhile, winds turn more southerly during frontal passage, followed by quickly clocking around from southwesterly to easterly on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Continued warm and dry conditions will make for elevated fire concerns through the first half of this weekend mainly because of very dry fuels. Prevailing NE winds today turn easterly on Friday, then southeasterly ahead of an approaching frontal system by Saturday. Expect a seabreeze to approach I-10 the next couple of afternoons. Daily RH bottoms out in the 30s to 40s away from the immediate coast, but recover nicely each night. Rain chances, albeit slight, hold off until Sunday with the best potential mainly west of the Apalachicola-Flint River Valley. Wetting rains appear unlikely && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days. The best potential is on Sunday from a cold front. However, the latest trends show a weakening frontal system with precipitation coverage and forecast amounts notably decreasing. Drought will therefore continue and is expected to worsen areawide. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248573 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 532 AM AST Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * For Puerto Rico, limited to elevated/moderate flood risk, with the heaviest along northeastern PR. Therefore, ponding of water of road and poorly drained areas is forecast. * For the U.S. Virgin Islands, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase through Saturday. * A gradual improvement in weather conditions is forecast by late Monday as a drier airmass moves across the islands. * A northerly swell will lead to deteriorating marine and coastal conditions by the end of the weekend into next week. Stay updated for updates regarding the issuance of statement or advisories. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday... During the night, GOES-16 satellite data and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper indicated strong thunderstorms with frequent lightning associated with an advancing frontal boundary over the northwestern Atlantic waters. These storms later moved across the northwestern municipalities of Puerto Rico. Several Special Marine Warnings were issued for the affected regional waters, and a Marine Weather Statement remained in effect for the offshore Atlantic waters through the morning hours. In addition, Flood Advisories were issued for western/northwestern and southwestern municipalities due to periods of heavy rainfall that caused minor flooding and ponding of water on roadways. The storms also produced gusty winds and frequent lightning, with several stations reporting wind gusts in the upper 20s to low 30s mph. A weather station in Aguada even recorded a peak wind gust of 40 mph. For the remainder of the morning hours, as the frontal boundary continues to move southward, additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across northern sections of Puerto Rico, but likely will remain over the water for the most part. A polar trough and its associated frontal boundary will remain the dominant features influencing local weather through the end of the week and into the weekend. The pre-frontal trough, currently located across the region, along with the frontal boundary situated just north of the area, is expected to stall and linger through Saturday, maintaining a moist and unstable environment. Model guidance indicates that precipitable water values (PWAT) will remain above climatological normals, fluctuating between 1.8 and 2.2 inches. These elevated moisture levels will support periods of widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Upper-level instability is expected to persist as 250 mb height fields remain near or below normal, while 500 mb temperatures hover around -7 to -8C, further enhancing convective potential. During the afternoon, a prevailing southerly component will favor moisture convergence across the northern and northeastern portions of Puerto Rico. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly over the interior and northern/northeastern municipalities, with activity gradually diminishing into the evening. However, the extent and intensity of afternoon convection will depend on cloud coverage; if cloudiness persists through the morning and early afternoon, it could limit surface heating and hinder convective development. Localized flooding, ponding of water on roadways, and reduced visibility in heavy rain remain possible. On Friday and Saturday, the frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary as upper-level troughing deepens. Persistent moisture and continued instability will support another round of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the interior and north-central areas. Model guidance indicates elevated relative humidity in the 700-500 mb and 850-700 mb layers, along with relatively steep lapse rates within these levels, maintaining favorable conditions for convection. A limited to elevated flooding threat will persist through the short- term period, with the interior, northern, and northeastern portions of Puerto Rico, as well as the northern U.S. Virgin Islands, potentially experiencing the brunt of the activity. Urban and small stream flooding will remain possible, along with frequent lightning and gusty winds accompanying the strongest thunderstorms. Although periods of unsettled weather are expected, activity will not be constant throughout the period, and intervals of calmer conditions are also anticipated. Residents are encouraged to stay tuned for updates regarding any advisories, warnings, or statements that may become necessary. Temperatures at 925 mb remain above normal today, indicating continued warm and humid conditions, particularly across coastal and urban areas. However, extensive cloud cover could limit surface heating, which in turn may reduce the overall heat threat. Weather conditions will continue to be monitored, and if significant cloud clearing occurs during the morning hours, Heat Advisories may be required and will be issued accordingly. A downward trend in the heat threat is expected through the weekend as the frontal boundary lingers and cloud cover persists. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday... Wet and unstable weather conditions are expected to persist through at least Monday as the remnants of a frontal boundary and its associated moisture continue to influence the local area. This pattern will result in increased moisture and instability, supporting periods of showers and thunderstorm activity across the region. The latest model guidance indicates deep-layer moisture extending from the surface to the mid-levels, maintaining a moist environment favorable for convection. As a result, frequent showers and thunderstorms are expected, with activity affecting mainly the windward and coastal sections during the nighttime and early morning hours, and developing across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. Given the abundant moisture and instability, lightning and localized flooding threats will range from limited to elevated, particularly across portions of Puerto Rico through Monday. By late Monday, a gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected as drier air filters into the region. For Tuesday and Wednesday, weather conditions should become more stable overall, with moisture levels fluctuating around seasonal to below values for this time of the year. Despite the drying trend, residual moisture and local effects combined with daytime heating will still promote isolated to scattered afternoon showers, mainly over the interior and western Puerto Rico. The flooding threat during this period should remain limited to none. However, by the later part of the workweek, model guidance shows a gradual increase in moisture and shower activity as a tropical wave or potential tropical system moves south of the region. Until then, fair weather and limited convection are expected, with isolated afternoon showers possible over the western interior due to local and diurnal effects. We urge citizens and visitors to continue to monitor the forecast for any significant changes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) A stalled frontal boundary over and N of the area could result at times in BKN cigs with -SHRA/ISOLD TSRA across the region this morning, where TEMPO MVFR conds are possible. After 18Z, SHRA/ISOLD TSRA are expected to develop over the interior and move toward the N and NE coastal terminals due to diurnal heating and local effects, leading to brief MVFR conds and MTN OBSC. SFC winds LGT/VRB less than 10 kt, except near TSRA/SHRA where gusty/vrb winds may occur. && .MARINE... The approaching frontal boundary will continue to induce a pre- frontal trough for the rest of the workweek, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across the regional waters and passages. This will also increase wind speed from time to time with the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Pulses of a long period easterly swell will reach the local exposed waters by Thursday into Friday. Pulses of another long period northerly swell associated to low pressure system over the northwestern Atlantic waters will reach the Offshore and local Atlantic waters and passages late in the weekend into the upcoming workweek. && .BEACH FORECAST... Low rip current risk will prevail today. However, a moderate rip current risk will return by Friday and coastal conditions will gradually deteriorate as pulses of another long period northerly swell increases the threat of life-threatening rip currents along the west, north, and eastern beaches of the islands. High surf conditions and minor coastal flooding are likely on Sunday and Monday as the northerly swell builds seas between 6 and 8 feet around 12 to 14 seconds, which translates to breaking waves between 10 and 15 feet. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1248572 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 420 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Drier air draped across the Florida Keys will permit only slight rain chances, as well as lower dew points to prevail for the first half of the weekend. -Bouts of breezy conditions will commence on Friday, lasting through the early part of the weekend. -A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all of the Florida Keys island communities. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Halfway through October, and the atmosphere over the Florida Keys most resembles the dry season. CIMSS derived precipitable water scans measured about 1 inch over the Keys, and to provide context, the tenth percentile for the day is 1.17 inches. The 00Z KKEY sounding sampled no mixed layer CAPE in the environment, which helps explain why the KBYX radar scans see almost no meteorological echoes over the coastal waters. Lows are on track to be in the mid to upper 70s, so enjoy the reprieve from heat and humidity while it lasts. Breezes along the reef are measuring as gentle to moderate, and slackening to gentle is possible during the day. The short term forecast is thus uneventful weather across the Keys. Coastal Flooding will still be an issue today across the Keys, so watch for ponding around low lying areas. .FORECAST... A marine low located off the eastern coast of the US will continue its trek into the mid-Atlantic over the next few days. In its place, a high pressure system is diving south from the Great Lakes towards the southeastern CONUS. While breezes are gentle to moderate, the high will tighten the gradient over the weekend. Small Craft Advisories and a chance of showers are possible on Friday, assuming sufficient moisture is present in the lower atmosphere alongside veering winds, but confidence is not high enough to put in the forecast at this time. The big change to the forecast package involves the winds at the start of the next work week. Statistical guidance indicates the high pressure system will be both stronger and further south than previously expected, so a period of light to gentle breezes is much less likely on Monday to Monday night. In this scenario, a moisture gradient would be stuck over the Florida Keys. Shower chances would remain near normal, 20%, for most of next week. Just make sure to keep checking for any updates as we get to the end of the wet season. && .MARINE... Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure sinking south over the eastern CONUS will keep shower coverage low through Friday. Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will freshen to moderate to fresh as the pressure gradient tightens on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required sometime over the weekend, depending on the strength of the high pressure system. Shower coverage may increase Friday night because of a southward moving convergence boundary. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail today. While a passing shower can`t be ruled out, they will be rare. Winds will generally be light out of the northeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1955, the daily record low temperature of 63F was recorded at Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 76 86 76 / 10 30 30 30 Marathon 84 76 84 76 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248571 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 257 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Areas of fog have begun to develop in the Bayou Parishes, River Parishes, Northshore, and Mississippi Coast over the past couple of hours. The fog is not extensively dense at this time with most visibilities ranging between 1 and 3 miles and a review of cameras shows that is largely ground fog. The fog is forming beneath a strong surface based temperature inversion that has helped to decouple the boundary layer from the surface. Rising dewpoints in the lower 60s are also helping to contribute to the fog as temperatures cool to the dewpoint. Given these visibilities and the shallow nature of the fog, have opted to not issue a dense fog advisory at this time. PG && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Upper ridging centered over Arkansas, with an upper trough along the Nevada-Utah border. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Lake Superior, extending southward along the length of the Mississippi River Valley. Regional upper air soundings during the evening continued to show precipitable water values near the 25th percentile (about 0.9 inches). This is reflected in the lack of any significant cloud cover over land until near the Ohio River. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the mid and upper 80s, although Bogalusa did reach 90. The upper ridge will drift eastward over the next 36 hours to near a Pensacola to Detroit line. The surface high will shift eastward as well, to be centered over the Appalachians Friday afternoon. By that time, the upper trough will be exiting the Rockies. Low level flow will become more noticeably onshore by Friday. Moisture levels won`t really have responded by Friday evening, with precipitable water values still only near the 50th percentile (1.25 inches). Probably not much more than high cloud cover, even on Friday afternoon. Afternoon highs will again be in the 85 to 90 range for most of the area this afternoon, a few degrees below record levels. Highs Friday should be a couple degrees lower, as the more significant onshore flow will be crossing waters that are only around 80F. Any fog development this morning should be rather isolated and near warmer waters, but might be a little more abundant Friday morning, especially near and north of Interstate 12. Should burn off quickly in either case. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 While the main portion of the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes Saturday, the synoptic models hold a southern stream piece of the trough somewhere between El Paso and Phoenix. This brings into question whether the local area will really see a cold frontal passage over the weekend. The operational ECMWF from Wednesday morning does eventually bring a weakened front through the area on Sunday, but the 18z GFS never does. This would certainly lend credence to the NBM holding onto precipitation chances through the daytime hours Sunday. Moisture levels do eventually improve enough to support shower and thunderstorm development Saturday night into Sunday, but forecast amounts aren`t likely to be sufficient to eliminate the precipitation deficit most areas are experiencing over the last couple months. Probably well less than an inch in most areas. The main storm track is expected to remain north of the local area for early to middle portions of next week, but a shortwave moving through the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley and its associated cold front could bring another minor chance of precipitation sometime around Tuesday. Temperature guidance was generally a blend between the the ECMWF and GFS solutions, with the GFS being considerably warmer for Sunday into the first half of next week. Sunday into Monday will be dependent on the cold frontal passage. From the 12z Wednesday runs, morning lows Monday (10/20) showed about a 15-20 degree range over the northern half of the area, with the NBM leaning toward the cooler solution. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 All forecast terminals VFR at issuance time, and for the most part should remain that way. Cannot rule out fog closer to sunrise, as there has already been very isolated low visibilities at KNBG and KPQL, which are not forecast terminals, but they tend to report fog considerably more often than the forecast terminals. None of the state transportation department cameras (LA and MS) in those areas showing fog as of 0430z. Feel the threat might be a little greater tomorrow night as low level moisture increases. Similar to Wednesday afternoon, could see some very small, very flat cumulus clouds during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but currently do not see any prolonged periods with wind speeds of 20 knots. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 89 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 87 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 88 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248569 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 346 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and dry conditions are expected through early Saturday, as high pressure as moves into the local area from the Great Lakes. A warming trend is expected this weekend, as the high slides offshore, with the next system approaching from the northwest. There is a chance for showers Sunday night, followed by mainly dry weather Monday through next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Dry, cooler and breezy today. - Chilly tonight with diminishing winds inland. Patchy frost will be possible into early Friday morning in the piedmont. The latest wx analysis depicts an upper level trough spinning over northern New England and Atlantic Canada, with an upper level ridge across the south-central CONUS. The NW flow aloft is helping to push a dry cold front south of the local area, early this morning, with sfc high pressure (~1026mb) centered over the Great Lakes region drifting to the E-SE. The sky is mainly clear, with northerly winds averaging 5-10 mph inland, with 10-20 mph winds, gusting to around 25 mph near the coast. Temperatures are mild due to mixing, ranging through the 50s, with a few lower 60s at the immediate coast in the SE. Winds over the interior will tend to drop off towards sunrise, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 40s, with 50s at the coast. For today, the upper low moves well SE off the New England coast as the upper ridge amplifies into the upper midwest. The sfc high becomes centered over the eastern Great Lakes later this aftn into this evening. Breezy N winds are expected with gusts to 20-25 mph, and low dew pts falling into the 30s will lead to min RH values of 30-35% across much of the area (with some places along/W of I-95 perhaps falling to 25-30% for a few hrs). Still does not look like a significant Fire WX threat given the shorter days this time of year and with fuels not being particularly dry. For high temperatures, went a little above the NBM due to deep mixing in the dry airmass, but high temperatures today will still be about 5-10 degrees cooler than Wednesday, with mid to upper 60s well inland, and lower 60s on the eastern shore. Model consensus shifts the sfc high SSE overnight, from the eastern Great Lakes and upper OH Valley in the evening, becoming centered across the central Appalachians by 12Z Friday (still W of the CWA). This remains similar to previous runs, and is not an optimal position for a long night of radiational cooling and ideal decoupling for most of the CWA. Diminishing winds are expected after sunset, the exception being near the coast where it will stay mixed and breezy overnight. Do anticipate some patchy frost in the far western zones from Farmville to Louisa/Fluvanna counties where conditions could eventually completely decouple after midnight, and allow readings to fall as low as the mid 30s. Opted not to issue a Frost Advisory this cycle given only patchy frost development, but will mention these areas in the HWO. Elsewhere, did blend in some of the cooler guidance for the typical cooler spots along and W of I-95, with lows averaging in the upper 30s to lower 40s across central and south central VA. Closer to the coast, warmer water temperatures and more mixing will keeps lows mostly in the low- mid 40s or warmer, with places at the immediate coast in the SE in the lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Cool and dry Friday/Friday night, a little warmer Saturday. High pressure settles into the local area on Friday, bringing lighter winds and another day with a mainly sunny sky. Highs remain cool, generally in the lower to mid 60s. Clear Friday evening, then increasing high clouds stream over to the east of the upper ridge axis overnight. This will keep it a little warmer Friday night, with lows mainly 40-45F, with the coolest temperatures likely across interior SE VA/NE NC where it`ll stay clear through through much of the night. Partly to mostly sunny Saturday, and turning a little warmer, as the upper level ridge axis shifts east to the coast later in the day, and off the coast by Sunday morning. WInds will be light enough for some onshore flow at the coast where highs range in the upper 60s, with low-mid 70s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Warm on Sunday ahead of a cold front. - Best chance for rain is Sunday night, followed by mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures next week. A large upper trough moves in from the W late Sunday, with strong low pressure ejecting NNE across the Great Lakes. The latest 00Z/16 models still show some differences with respect to the evolution of the system, the ECMWF being stronger and farther south with the potential for secondary sfc low development compared to the GFS/CMC. The associated ensembles reflect these differences in potential rainfall chances with the EPS being the only one that shows any chance for 0.50"+ of rainfall Sun night/early Monday (and even the EPS has trended drier than 24 hrs ago). Either way, most if not all of the daytime hrs Sunday look dry (will have 15-25% PoPs late in the day across the NW). Increasing southerly slow will help increase temperatures Sunday to the mid to upper 70s under a partly sunny sky. As noted above, there is uncertainty to how much moisture reaches the area, as it takes on a negative tilt as it reaches the western slope of the mountains, which may cause the precip to split over the area and/or struggle east of the Appalachians. Have likely PoPs Sun night confined to the far NE, with only 30-50% PoPs elsewhere (lowest in the SE). Behind the trough, temperatures will be near to a little below normal, with mainly dry conditions expected Mon-Tue, with another upper trough forecast to become centered over the NE CONUS by midweek. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Thursday... Dry, with a clear to mostly clear sky will persist through the 06Z/16 TAF period across the region. Winds remain elevated along the immediate coast throughout the period (i.e. ORF), and will become elevated inland, mainly ~14Z until ~21Z. the wind direction will be northerly, probably more from the NE at ORF, and more from the NNW at SBY. Gusts as high as 20-25 kt are expected. Diminishing winds heading into this evening, though ORF will likely continue gusting to ~20 kt tonight. Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected through the end of the week. Lighter winds return Friday and Saturday. An approaching cold front will bring a chance for showers, mainly Sunday night. It does not appear to be a significant rain event at this time, so only brief flight restrictions are anticipated, if any. Drying out for Monday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: - Colder and drier air filters south this morning into early Friday, bringing solid SCA conditions to the local waters. - High pressure builds over the waters Friday into Saturday with improving marine conditions. 1024mb high pressure remains centered over northern MI with low pressure well east of the Atlantic coast. Winds have strengthened back into the 15-25 kt range with gusts 25-30 kt as the cooler and drier air behind a front filters southward and promotes deeper mixing over the relatively warm local waters. Waves in the bay are 2- 4 ft with seas 5-7 ft. Expect SCA conditions to prevail for most of the local waters from this morning into Friday. One exception may be the upper rivers where hi-res guidance shows the winds may not be as strong as previously indicated. Will maintain the ongoing SCA headlines in the rivers for now. Local wind probs continue to back off with respect to the potential for a period of gale-force gusts tonight as an additional surge of cold advection drops southward. Will maintain 20- 25 kt with gust to 30 kt for the bay and coastal waters. Winds will average 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt for the rivers and Currituck Sound. Waves in the bay build to 3-5 ft before decreasing back into the 2-3 ft range by Friday afternoon. NW wind direction should keep seas offshore from building as much as the wind speed would suggest but will maintain 5-7 ft through Friday morning. Seas offshore are forecast to stay above 5 ft into early Saturday, but given the offshore wind direction and low confidence on exactly how fast seas will fall off, have not extended the offshore SCAs any further with this forecast cycle. High pressure builds into the area on Friday with winds rapidly decreasing through the morning and early afternoon. Low level flow becomes southerly early Sunday ahead of the next front. Another period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday into Monday as the gradient tightens ahead of and behind the cold frontal passage. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for ANZ634-650-652- 654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ638. && $$ |
| #1248568 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Today with ocean effect clouds along the southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers towards the Cape and Islands later today and tonight. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Points * Cool and Gusty NW winds up to 30-40mph with chilly temps in the low 50s. Cool and windy today as cold air advection continues, supported by the cold pool aloft dropping south. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid-50s even under sunny skies across the interior. Skies will be more overcast across the Cape and Islands, with ocean- effect strato-cumulus clouds forming as cold air moves over the relatively warm ocean waters still in the upper 50s to low 60s. There could be some ocean effect rain showers late in the day, but boundary layer conditions are rather dry, and rain will struggle to reach the ground. Diurnal heating today will allow mixing of winds up to 850mb today where winds are around 25-35 knots (28-40mph) will mix down to the surface this afternoon. The gusty winds will make it feel like the 40s today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Key Points * Windy and Cold tonight. Lows in the 30s. * Decreasing winds and slightly warmer. * Minor splash over flooding possible with the evening high tide. See coastal flood section below. Tonight: Winds at 850mb increase to 35-45 knots overnight, but with the loss of diurnal heating, it will be much harder to mix those gusts down to the surface. It will still be breezy overnight with gusts around 20-25mph. With overnight lows dropping into the 30s away from the coasts, the wind chill values will fall into the upper 20s. Tomorrow: The cold pool begins to move offshore on Friday with an upper-level ridge building in behind. With rising heights and weakening cold air advection, high temperatures will be able to rebound slightly into the upper 50s to low 60s under mostly sunny skies. Stronger winds aloft begin to move offshore on Friday, meaning we will still have gusty northerly winds in the morning, but becoming light in the afternoon and evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun * Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain Details... Saturday/Sunday... A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. 850T warm significantly by Saturday and while we will not be able to mix that deep or fully realize at the surface...still expect highs to reach the lower to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts east of the region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and 70 on Sunday. Early Next Week... A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure system developing near or south of southern New England. If this were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today: High Confidence VFR with MVFR possible over the Cape and Islands and Ocean effect strato cumulus form. Boundary layer winds will continue to stay decoupled overnight which will lead to windshear issues as 2kft winds increase to 30-35 knots. After Sunrise, Stronger winds aloft will begin to mix down brining NW gusts of 25-30 knots for all terminals. Tonight: Moderate Confidence VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tomorrow night. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Tomorrow: High Confidence VFR. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds gusting up to 30 knots today. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2kft turn more northerly and increase to 35-40 knots. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds up to 25 knots. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Breezy. Saturday through Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Through Friday Gale-force winds begin across the eastern waters later this morning as a strong cold front moves through. Gale-force winds will last into Thursday night, ending Friday morning. The extended period of strong northerly winds will bring seas up to 8-10 feet. While gale- force winds are not expected after Friday morning, Winds will remain around 25-30 knots, and seas will remain elevated at 6-8 feet. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Coastal Flood: Opted to issue a coastal flood statement for Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket for the 10 pm high tide tonight. Strong NNW winds will cause offshore waves to increase into the 8-10 foot range tonight, which could bring surge values up to 1.5 feet. Stevens Institute flood forecasts show total water level at Nantucket reaching 5.0 ft MLLW with a 10% chance of reaching 5.2 feet MLLW. Given the strong northerly winds and offshore waves reaching 10 ft, there will likely be some minor splash over flooding for both Nantucket and Marthas Vineyard. Decided to leave Cape Cod out of the coastal flood statement as total water level forecasts for Dennis are expected to be around 11.8 feet MLLW, and 10.4 feet MLLW at Provincetown. In order to get minor flooding, we would likely need the total water level to reach 12.5 feet MLLW or much larger offshore waves on the order of 20+ feet. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-236. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ231-251. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-250. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ233-234. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1248566 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 245 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry backdoor cold front sinks through area tonight allowing high pressure to build in its wake. This high will anchor over the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Another cold front will move through the area Monday bringing our next chance for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 0130 Thursday...Clear skies and light winds allowed temps to crash after sunset which led to some patchy fog development earlier tonight, but this will be wiped out once the backdoor cold front sinks S through the area and light Nerly breeze mixes out leftover moisture. Front is currently located around the Albemarle slowly pushing S, expected to be S of the FA before sunrise this morning. Quiet day in store Thursday with clear skies, CAA in Nerly breeze as high pressure builds into the region. Crisp MaxTs in the mid to upper 60s inland, warmest SW, low to mid 60s for beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0230 Thursday...Cold night in store with crystal clear skies and calming winds leading to a strong radiational cooling setup. Have MinTs in the low 40s most of the FA, low to mid 50s beaches. With that said, wouldn`t be shocked to see typical cold spots like KDPL reach into the upper 30s. Should be too dry for any meaningful fog development but some patchy fog of the "ditch" variety seems possible in typical spots that pool moisture. Don`t have any mention of frost but if the forecast trends cooler, it won`t be out of the question. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 AM Thu... Key Messages... - Cool and breezy conditions continue Friday with highs below normal and lows bottoming out in the upper 30s/low 40s - High pressure moves overhead and then offshore this weekend with above normal temps returning. - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through mid next week A cool and dry airmass will remain in place Friday with highs mainly in the 60s. High pressure re-centers over the southern Mid-Atlantic Saturday allowing heights to build, and conditions will rebound to near normal. High pressure moves offshore Sunday signaling a return to above normal conditions with highs approaching 80. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving and likely moisture- starved front moves across the Southeast. Behind this front, mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 0130 Thursday...VFR flight cats currently with light to calm winds and SKC. Shallow ditch fog has popped up ahead of the backdoor cold front that will push through overnight. Now, conditions are mostly VFR across runways, but terminals near water (EWN/PGV) are registering IFR conditions. Will carry TEMPO groups for terminals ahead of the front. VFR conditions dominate once the front pushes S lasting through the day with mainly clear skies and Nerly winds gusting 15-20kt inland and 25-30kt OBX. Winds calm again Thursday and temps will crash again after sunset under SKC. With Tds in the 30s being advected in behind the front, think it`ll be too dry for meaningful fog development. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thu...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday, and there could be some temporary flying restrictions as a result. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 0230 Thursday...Steady Nerly breezes persist. SCAs in place for all waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers. Winds pick back up with another secondary Nerly surge of winds behind a dry backdoor cold front that will sink through waters from N to S through the early morning hours. The mouth of the Neuse river could see wind gusts ~25 knots behind the cold front tonight, but the localized nature and brevity precludes SCA issuance here. Seas 6-7ft Diamond Shoals N, 4-6ft Cape to Cape, 2-3ft nearshore waters S of Lookout. Seas build yet again with the uptick in Nerly winds behind the front; 6-9ft Diamond N, 5-8ft Cape to Cape. South of Lookout, nearshore waters sheltered from Nerly winds remain 2-3ft, 4-8ft further offshore. Periods generally shorten through the day, 10-11sec early becoming 7-8sec from N to S as wind waves begin to dominate. LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... As of 3 AM Thu... Key Messages - A tight pressure gradient will keep hazardous marine conditions in the forecast through Friday with Small Craft conditions expected - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday and Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front A tight gradient will continue Friday with winds NNW 20-30 kts, but conditions will quickly improve Friday night to NNW 10-15 kts before midnight. Winds continue to weaken Saturday to less than 10 kts, and will eventually come around to the south late in the day. Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Winds will turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts. Seas will be 5-8 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 3-5 ft to the south on Friday. Seas subside to 3-5 ft Saturday for all but the very outer waters southeast of Cape Hatteras where 6 footers may remain. Increasing seas are possible late Saturday as long period swell arrives from a distant strong low pressure system over the North Atlantic. Seas could increase to 5-7 ft for much of the marine waters, but confidence is low on the exact timing and strength of this swell. Seas will increase to 6-10 ft Sunday as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Thu...Persistent strong northerly winds will continue through Friday keeping the potential for minor coastal flooding in the forecast through at least Thursday. Minor soundside flooding of up to 1 to 2 ft AGL will be possible adjacent to the southeastern Pamlico Sound from around Avon south to Core Sound due to the strong winds. Oceanside concerns will continue across portions of the Outer Banks, especially Hatteras Island, around high tide due to the combination of high water levels, wave run up, and vulnerable dune structures, with up to 1 to 2 ft AGL of inundation possible. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ196-204- 205. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1248565 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 224 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - Warm and dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with worsening drought and elevated fire concerns. Use caution if burning outdoors. - A weakening frontal system brings a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday-Sunday night, but rain amounts are expected to be light. Overall rain coverage has decreased with this forecast cycle. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A strong upper ridge shifting further into the MS Valley from the west fosters very warm & dry conditions today. This morning starts off with some patchy fog mainly around the I-75 corridor. Daytime temperatures then peak to the mid-upper 80s under a prevailing NE wind thanks to surface high pressure anchored across the Midwest. Expect an afternoon seabreeze to develop, then march towards I-10. For tonight, somewhat light winds and clear skies promote modest radiational cooling, so look for temperatures to bottom out in the upper 50s to low 60s away from the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging weakens and flattens out in response to a broad northern stream trough moving through the Northern Plains-Great Lakes region. The latter sends a cold front down that will initially serve as focus for widely scattered showers/thunderstorms across Appalachia. However, as the frontal boundary pushes into the Deep South, fleeting upper-level support looks to weaken convection, especially with eastward extent. The latest model guidance shows a slower/diminishing convective trend, so max PoPs have decreased to slight chance with this forecast cycle for Sunday-Sunday night. The best potential is in our Central Timezone Counties. Forecast amounts have also dropped off considerably, which is deflating when it comes to drought relief. East to SE winds develop ahead of the front, then turn northerly following FroPa late Sunday or early Monday. There are some indications that the frontal boundary may stall just to our south as the flow aloft becomes zonal, so lingering showers over parts of the Tri-State area are a possibility. A ridge of high pressure temporarily builds overhead early next week with a slight cooldown amidst continued dry weather. Another shot of rain is on the table near the end or just beyond this forecast period, but prospects don`t look particularly great given meager moisture return. Forecast high temperatures are in the 80s with lows in the 50s & 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period. A brief period of reduced vsbys due to patchy fog still remains possible at VLD over the next few hours prior to daybreak. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An ASCAT pass at 0208Z showed light winds below 10 kts west of Apalachicola and easterlies over Apalachee Bay generally less than 15 kts. CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northeast breezes prevail today before turning east to southeasterly heading into the weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. A nocturnal easterly surge is expected across Apalachee Bay tonight, such that small craft may need to exercise caution. Chances for showers return to the forecast, mainly across the Panhandle waters on Sunday. Meanwhile, winds turn more southerly during frontal passage, followed by quickly clocking around from southwesterly to easterly on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Continued warm and dry conditions will make for elevated fire concerns through the first half of this weekend mainly because of very dry fuels. Prevailing NE winds today turn easterly on Friday, then southeasterly ahead of an approaching frontal system by Saturday. Expect a seabreeze to approach I-10 the next couple of afternoons. Daily RH bottoms out in the 30s to 40s away from the immediate coast, but recover nicely each night. Rain chances, albeit slight, hold off until Sunday with the best potential mainly west of the Apalachicola-Flint River Valley. Wetting rains appear unlikely at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days. The best potential is on Sunday from a cold front. However, the latest trends show a weakening frontal system with precipitation coverage and forecast amounts notably decreasing. Drought will therefore continue and is expected to worsen areawide. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 59 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 84 65 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 87 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 57 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 83 65 80 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248564 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 232 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Gusty marine winds possible late week and into the weekend. - Rain-free conditions through Saturday, then a slight chance of showers on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Broad upper ridging extends northward through the Mississippi River Valley. The surface reflection is a 1025 mb high pressure center located over the Great Lakes region. The upper ridge and surface high will slowly move east-southeastward over the next couple of days and will be located along the eastern seaboard by Saturday morning. This pattern will keep a predominant northeast wind flow, partly cloudy skies and low rain chances over the Florida peninsula through Saturday. By Sunday morning, the high has shifted farther southeastward off the Carolina coastline between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Farther to the north, an area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending southward through the Ohio River Valley. The trailing edge of this weak cold front will approach the area from the northwest on Sunday. This will bring a shift in the winds to the southeast and southwest and also bring a slight uptick in moisture over the region. A stray shower may be possible as the front moves through on Sunday into early Monday. The front pushes south and east of Florida and dissipates on Monday as high pressure builds back in over the southeast U.S. Pleasant weather is expected for the first half of next week. Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR, rain-free conditions and winds less than 10 knots expected through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure north of the area will produce rain-free conditions and prevailing northeast winds around 10-15 knots through the day, with some brief periods of increasing winds to Cautionary level overnight tonight and again on Friday night. The only chance of any showers will come on Sunday as a weak front moves across the eastern gulf waters. High pressure then builds back into the area for the first half of next week with pleasant weather expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Pleasant weather expected for most of the period with only a slight chance of a shower on Sunday. No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 69 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 88 69 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 87 67 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 87 68 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 87 61 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 84 70 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1248563 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday night - Isolated showers across the local waters and along the immediate coast today with dry conditions forecast through this weekend and into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today-Tonight...A weak boundary drifts southward across the local Atlantic waters today through tonight, with some slightly higher moisture present out ahead of the boundary. This will lead to continued development of isolated showers out across the local Atlantic waters, with persistent, breezy northeast flow causing some activity to push onshore along the coast. Conditions are anticipated to remain mostly dry across the interior, though an isolated shower or two may be able to move farther inland. PoPs are forecast to remain between 15 to 20%. Storms are not anticipated to develop with the activity today. As mentioned, winds are forecast to remain breezy today, with wind speeds generally between 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible, especially along the coast. Temperatures reach the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the mid 60s to low 70s overnight. A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today. Entering the surf is not advised. Friday-Wednesday...The weak boundary moves south of the local the Atlantic waters early Friday, with an area of high pressure forecast to build across the southeastern U.S. late this week into the weekend. This will keep conditions dry and sunny, with winds veering to out of the east-northeast and temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s in the afternoons. Sunday into Monday, the surface high shifts eastward out over the Atlantic as a decaying frontal boundary approaches Florida. Guidance has continued to back off of rain chances across east central Florida Sunday night into Monday, with the NBM now calling for less than a 15% chance of rain. Will continue to monitor this trend in the guidance and adjust the forecast as needed, but currently maintain mostly dry conditions through the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. Southeast winds on Sunday become easterly once again Monday and through the remainder of the week, with guidance hinting at local wind enhancements from the east coast sea breeze in the afternoons. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80son Sunday and remain there through the middle of next week. Don`t let pleasant weather fool you, hazards can still be present even during blue sky days. Hazardous conditions at the beaches are anticipated to continue, with a high risk of rip currents forecast through late this week and into the weekend. Residents and visitors are strongly discouraged from entering the ocean. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A weak boundary moving southward across the local Atlantic waters today into Friday will lead to not only isolated shower development, but also poor to hazardous boating conditions. Breezy northeast winds at 15 to 20 knots and seas of 5 to 8 feet are forecast across the local waters through at least Friday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the offshore waters, with the nearshore Treasure Coast waters joining the advisory at 8 PM tonight. Small craft are encouraged to exercise caution across the remaining nearshore waters. Conditions slowly begin to improve late Friday. As high pressure settles across the area this weekend, easterly winds subside to 10 to 15 knots and seas fall to 3 to 5 feet. A brief period of southeasterly winds on Sunday veer to out of the east once again through the middle of next week. Dry conditions are anticipated to continue, though the approach of a weakening frontal boundary late Sunday into Monday could lead to a stray shower or two. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions prevailing. However, brief MVFR CIG/VIS will be possible in isolated SHRA pushing S/SW and onshore. Coverage of showers is forecast to remain limited, mostly along the coast south of MLB. Have maintained VCSH through the overnight and Thu for coastal terminals (MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA). Otherwise, mostly dry conditions continue at MCO/SFB. North winds 5-7 knots thru 12Z will veer NNE through the morning and increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts near 20 knots, especially along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 68 80 64 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 84 68 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 81 68 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 84 71 82 67 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 84 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 66 82 63 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 84 67 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 FPR 84 70 81 66 / 20 20 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ555. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Friday for AMZ572-575. && $$ |
| #1248561 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Deteriorating marine conditions across our local waters will begin late today into tonight as winds enhance. A northeasterly swell will result in hazardous marine conditions in our Atlantic waters beginning this evening. - Breezy to at times gusty northeasterly winds will result in dangerous rip currents at Palm Beach County beaches today. The risk of high rip currents spreads southwards tomorrow, encompassing all east coast beaches. - The combination of onshore winds and the approaching new moon in the lunar cycle will result in continued minor flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 05z Mesoanalysis and ACARS (aircraft) data from local airports this morning reveal a continuation of comfortable conditions across South Florida with dewpoints currently in the mid to upper 60s. Even in the relatively quiet weather regime we currently find ourselves in, mesoscale phenomena can still preclude a totally dry forecast. Looking at current surface observations inland and along the immediate east coast, the convergence of light northwesterly winds and northeasterly winds has led to weak coastal convergence along the east coast of South Florida over the last several hours. KAMX (Miami Radar) has been tracking an increasing amount of shower activity just offshore of the east coast of South Florida within the past one to two hours. ACARS data from our three major east coast airports (KMIA, KFLL, and KPBI) as well as the 00z MFL upper air sounding reveal a plethora of dry air in most of the atmospheric column with the exception of a shallow layer of surface moisture (up to 750mb). The warm waters of the nearby Gulf Stream and that shallow layer of moisture will likely result in the continuation of quick moving shower activity just offshore or along the immediate east coast of South Florida for the rest of today. The NBM (National Blend of Models) had 0% chances for rain today across the majority of the area, but based on analysis and mesoscale models, have added in 20-30% precipitation chances for the eastern half of the region today. Diurnal heating may allow for the expansion of these vertically capped showers further inland during the afternoon hours as northeasterly winds enhance across the entire region. Zooming out and taking a look at the synoptic pattern in play, South Florida remains situated between expansive mid-level ridging across the Gulf and Mississippi River Valley and a mid-level troughing amplifying across the northeastern United States and western Atlantic waters. This will result in the continuation of north to northwesterly mid level flow over the next several days, ushering in a continued dry airmass in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary tied to an distant area of low pressure out in the northern Atlantic will gradually slide southward across our region today. The development of an expansive surface ridge of high pressure across most of the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic waters will result in the enhancement of a pressure gradient between these two features. Breezy northeasterly winds will pick up during the afternoon hours, especially along the immediate east coast. Breezy onshore flow combined with the factors listed above, could support the continued advection of spotty low-topped showers across the eastern half of South Florida today. The enhancement of onshore winds will create a slight temperature gradient across the region this afternoon with forecasted high temperatures in the middle 80s across the eastern half of the region and highs in the upper 80s (even a few locales potentially reaching 90F) across the western half of the region. With the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in full swing, the next longwave trough across the western United States will begin to amplify and pivot eastward. This will result in the axis of mid-level ridging across the central Gulf to slide eastward over the Florida Peninsula and local waters. While dry air and subsidence remain the status quo in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient will continue to strengthen on Friday. This will result in gusty surface winds across most of the region, especially across the Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast of South Florida. Residual low-level moisture combined with the gusty northeasterly surface winds will keep the threat of a few isolated showers along the east coast of South Florida in the forecast. The enhancement of winds will lead to a greater temperature gradient during the afternoon hours with highs in the low 80s forecast along the immediate east coast to highs in the upper 80s across coastal southwestern Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 As the longwave trough across the central United States continues to amplify, mid-level ridging over the Florida Peninsula and adjacent waters will gradually flatten out and weaken in strength. Persistent mid-level northwesterly flow may veer more west- northwesterly or even westerly during this time frame. The axis of expansive surface ridging situated across the eastern United States will advect eastward into the western Atlantic waters, veering local surface flow out of a more easterly direction. This will result in a slight weakening of the pressure gradient on Saturday, although winds will still remain breezy (at times gusty), especially along the east coast of South Florida. The afternoon temperature gradient will remain with us once again, as forecasted highs range from the low to mid 80s along the east coast to temperatures in the upper 80s across southwestern Florida. The uncertainty in the forecast then rises and remains high for the second half of the weekend and into the early portion of next week as the latest guidance suite shows the aforementioned mid- level trough arriving across the Ohio River Valley & northeastern United States Sunday into Monday. At the surface, a frontal boundary associated with an area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will sweep across the Southeast and into the Florida Peninsula during this general time frame. The global and ensemble guidance still remain in disagreement with several items in regards to the mid level trough as well as the associated surface low and frontal boundary. While both the ECMWF & GFS show the trough axis, subtropical jet, and dynamics remaining to the north of our region, any transit of a mid-level shortwave at the base of the trough across our area could act to increase shower and thunderstorm chances by steepening lapse rates and providing a boost in instability. For now at least, both the latest European and American do not currently depict a short-wave passage across our region at this time. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. As mid-level troughing slides into the western Atlantic waters on Tuesday, the subtropical jet and upstream waves will remain active across the central and eastern United States. Expansive surface ridging will develop across most of the United States during this time period with the potential of reinforcing weak frontal boundaries pushing southward into our region. During this time frame, high temperatures will trend higher as breezy diurnally easterly flow continues. High temperatures in the low 90s are possible during the early to mid portion of the week across southwestern Florida with forecasted high temps in the mid to upper 80s across the east coast metro. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Winds will remain light and variable this morning before enhancing out of a northeasterly direction this afternoon, becoming gusty at times, especially at east coast terminals. Have added in a higher chance of SHRA into the forecast given forecast trends. Consequently, a mention of VCSH has been added for east coast terminals as shower activity may increase in coverage at times today. Winds will remain elevated overnight along the east coast of South Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A moderate to fresh north to northeasterly breeze will continue across the local waters today. By late today into tonight, the passage of a frontal boundary will result in an enhancement of winds across our local waters, especially in our nearshore Atlantic waters. Winds will remain fresh to strong on Friday and Saturday before lessening during the second half of the weekend and veering more southeasterly. This will result in SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions developing across our northern Atlantic waters this afternoon before expanding to the rest of our local waters this evening. A northeasterly swell will result in seas in the northern Atlantic waters reaching Small Craft Advisory (SCA) tonight, with seas building to 7 feet in the Gulfstream. Seas will also build to 7 feet in the southern Atlantic waters by the early to mid morning hours of Friday. Seas across the Gulf waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today, increasing to the 2 to 4 feet range by Friday. Isolated to scattered showers will remain in the forecast across our local waters each day, especially over and near the Gulfstream waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A high risk of rip currents will continue across the Palm Beaches today while a moderate risk remains in place across the Broward and Miami Dade County beaches. As onshore flow begins to increase and a northeasterly swell begins to build in the Atlantic, the rip current risk will become high across all Atlantic Coast beaches by this evening and remain in the high category through at least Friday evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 148 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The combination of higher than normal tidal levels due to the lunar cycle, increasing onshore flow, and northeasterly swell will result in the continued potential of minor coastal flooding within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide along the east coast over the next several days. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties through at least Friday morning. Given the continuation of breezy to at times gusty onshore winds along the east coast through the first part of the weekend, the Coastal Flood Statement may need to be extended further out in time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 74 84 73 / 20 20 10 10 West Kendall 87 72 85 70 / 20 20 10 10 Opa-Locka 87 74 85 71 / 30 30 10 10 Homestead 85 74 84 73 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 84 74 83 72 / 30 30 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 85 74 83 73 / 30 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 88 74 86 72 / 30 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 74 84 72 / 30 30 10 10 Boca Raton 86 74 84 72 / 30 30 10 10 Naples 88 71 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Friday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ650-670. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248560 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 102 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 * Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern through next Thursday with warmer than normal temperatures. * There is a low (20%) chance for rain on Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas; 20-30% chances Tuesday night through Thursday night over the Gulf Waters. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Benign, mainly rain-free weather conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. A couple of cool fronts and ~1020 hpa highs will approach Deep South Texas this weekend through the middle parts of next week. The first cool front has a chance to push through the forecast area on Sunday. A notable airmass change is not expected, though there could be some drier air filtering into the area at times. The second cool front will push through the Pac NW and Rockies before advancing through much of the state of Texas on Tuesday, potentially stalling nearby South/Deep South Texas on Tuesday night-Wednesday. Forecast models are indicating rain chances picking up over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday and Thursday in response to that nearby frontal boundary. Currently, we have low (20%) chances for rain showers Wednesday and Thursday across Deep South Texas (inland) with 20-30% chances over the Gulf Waters (Tuesday night through Thursday night). An anomalously strong 588-591 dam heat ridge is expected to drive our weather pattern through next Thursday. This will help to keep temperatures warmer than normal through the forecast period with daytime highs mainly in the 90s and nighttime lows in the mid 60s across the Northern Ranchlands and the lower to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Light and variable to calm winds are expected overnight. By late morning winds are expected to pickup out of the southeast at around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain mostly clear overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to prevail with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas through next Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 94 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 86 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 89 72 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248559 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 157 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure building in from the northwest will usher in the coolest air since Spring through the end of the work week. The high will shift offshore ahead of a front over the weekend bringing a gradual warm-up and low rain chances. More high pressure will bring cooler, drier weather back for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none *Temps: below normal Confidence: *High Details: Low to mid-level high pressure will build from the northwest through tonight as a cutoff mid-level low moves SE over the NW Atlantic. Some low-level cold advection will result in an unseasonably chilly air mass keeping temperatures below normal. Highs should generally be in the lower 70s with lows tonight generally in the mid 40s, except a bit milder along the coast and a bit colder inland in some of the typically colder spots due to decent radiational cooling conditions. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will be in control through the short term period. We`ll experience slight warming from Friday into Saturday as the ridge aloft starts to shift offshore, allowing a slow recovery of warmer, moist air. Nothing in the way of forcing will impact us during the period so we`ll remain dry with light winds under the center of the high. Highs will warm from near 70 to the mid 70s Friday to Saturday, with low similarly going from the 40s to the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be approaching the area Sunday with surface high pressure slipping offshore. A surge of modest moisture looks to push in or just north of the area Sunday night supporting low POPs with no thunder expected. The trough aloft will be decently amplified with a +30kt jet embedded in it at 925mb. There`s some uncertainty about where this jet will end up, but if it shifts a bit closer to us the forecast for late Sunday into Monday could end up windier than it currently is, gusts near 30mph possible. Otherwise, high pressure will build in afterwards with dry, cooler weather returning. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru 06Z/17 as high pressure builds into the area. Only minor concern is for a very low risk of vsby restrictions from shallow fog through about 10-11Z due to low-level saturation and wet ground from recent rain before low- level winds increase a bit. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR. Very low risk for restrictions Sun night as a cold front passes through with some showers. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure will build in from the NW pushing a colder/drier air mass over the relatively warm Atlantic waters. This will lead to an enhanced pressure gradient and breezy northerly winds close to Small Craft Advisory levels at times. Significant wave heights could also reach close to Advisory levels (6 ft) near the Gulf Stream but not thinking probability/coverage is sufficient for raising a headline at this time. Friday through Tuesday...High pressure moving overhead will lead to improving marine conditions with winds and seas decreasing through the day Friday. The high will shift offshore Saturday with winds becoming southerly ahead of a cold front. SCA conditions may be possible late Sunday into Monday with the frontal passage. High pressure will build in again for early next week with a return to better conditions. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding is likely into early next week as we approach a full moon, particularly along the SE NC coast as well as the Lower Cape Fear River which includes Downtown Wilmington. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1248557 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 151 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend into the region this week. A cold front could impact the area Sunday night or early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The mid-levels consist of a strong trough off the East Coast and a strong ridge over the MS Valley Region. This is bringing NNW flow overhead. At the surface, a dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery continuing to stretch into our region. Expect dry conditions with some passing clouds. Highs will range from the lower to middle 70s across the Charleston Tri-County, to the lower 80s near the Altamaha River and vicinity. The combination of clear to mostly clear skies and very light to calm winds will lead to plenty of radiational cooling tonight. Lows will range from the upper 40s far inland, to the mid 50s along our SC coast and the mid 60s along our GA coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain the dominant surface feature through Saturday. Aloft, a mid level ridge will gradually shift overhead. This pattern will favor dry and quiet conditions. Highs will span the 70s on Friday, coolest over the Charleston tri-county. Temperatures will then trend to normal for Saturday. Lows Friday night will mainly be in the 50s, although some spots over the northern interior could drop into the upper 40s. A mid level trough will shift towards the East Coast on Sunday. At the surface, offshore high pressure extending over the area will begin to weaken as a cold front approaches the area. The front and associated rain chances should stay west of the area through the daylight hours. It will be the warmest day of the set, with highs forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front is expected to push through the area early in the period, Sunday night or early Monday. Guidance has trended drier, with the threat for rainfall pretty minimal. PoPs are no higher than 20%. High pressure will briefly return thereafter, before another front possibly impacts the area towards the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at the CHS, JZI, and SAV terminals through Saturday. Brief flight restrictions are possible at all terminals due to showers associated with a passing cold front Sunday. && .MARINE... Today and Tonight: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning, while High pressure is centered over the Great Lakes Region. The High will shift towards the Central Appalachians by late tonight, with it`s periphery stretching into our region. NNE winds will prevail, perhaps increasing slightly during the evening hours. Based on buoy observations and model data, adjusted the Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters so it`s now in effect for this evening and the overnight. This is for 6 ft seas, mainly across the far eastern portion of these waters. Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds will subside on Friday as the pressure gradient eases. Some 6 foot seas could linger over the far outer Georgia waters, where a Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect until late Friday evening. Winds will veer around to the south on Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore. A cold front will then approach from the west Sunday, likely passing through the waters Sunday night or early Monday. A few gusts near 25 knots will be possible ahead of the front, but it appears pretty marginal at this point. High pressure will return for Monday and Tuesday with no additional marine concerns. Rip Currents: A dry cold front is located south of our area this morning. NNE winds behind this front along with 3 ft swell around 9 seconds supports a Moderate Risk of rip currents for our Georgia beaches through Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a threat for minor coastal flooding with the late afternoon high tide cycles through Friday along the Charleston and Colleton county coasts, as gusty northeast winds are expected to drive up tidal departures. Current forecast keeps tide levels on the lower end of minor flooding thresholds. The risk should be lower as we head into the weekend as high pressure shifts overhead and eventually offshore, and the wind direction becomes less favorable. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1248556 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters through Friday - A cold front is forecast to approach the area late this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Current-Tonight... While mostly dry, the XMR 10Z sounding has shown a modest layer of moisture below 700mb. This has been enough to support light onshore-moving showers, reaching as far inland as the Orlando metro this afternoon. By sunset, the focus of light showers looks to remain south of Cape Canaveral, and have kept a 20 percent PoP along the southern coast through tonight. A weak surface boundary passes the local Atlantic waters through the evening as low pressure shifts eastward, well offshore the eastern seaboard. In response, a surge of locally higher north-northeast winds to around 20 mph are forecast along the Volusia coastline and adjacent local waters through this evening. Low temperatures fall into the low to mid 60s across the interior while onshore flow keeps coastal locations in the upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday-Friday... Mid-level ridging across the central U.S. gradually weakens as it moves into the southeast. At the surface, high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will drift eastward, stretching southward across the eastern U.S. A dry airmass persists locally through the period, becoming reinforced as a dry surface boundary passes central Florida late Thursday and into Friday. Northeast winds increase Thursday with gusts up to 25 mph. Winds slacken slightly on Friday, still remaining gusty at times. Mesoscale models suggest onshore winds combined with generous moisture below 850mb could be supportive of a few showers along the coast Thursday evening/ night, and have included a 15-20% PoP for these areas. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s on Thursday fall a few degrees into Friday, more widely ranging the low 80s. Lows spreading the mid 60s across the interior and upper 60s/ low 70s along the coast are forecast to warm a few degrees as onshore flow increases. Saturday-Tuesday... Surface high pressure continues to stretch along the eastern seaboard late week before moving offshore Sunday. Moisture returns early next week as a cold front approaches from the west. Some uncertainty exists in how the frontal system will evolve further into the extended forecast period. A ECMWF solution pulls the front across central Florida on Monday while the GFS keeps the front north of the area. Regardless, dry conditions are forecast through the weekend with warming temperatures. Highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday mostly range the mid 80s by Sunday. Precip and temperatures become more uncertain into Monday and will be dependent on the evolution of the front. Relying on the NBM as a first guess, and keeping only an isolated mention of showers for Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast through Friday as northeast winds build seas into tonight. Small Craft Advisories spread the offshore Atlantic waters (20-60nm) from north to south through this evening as seas increase up to 7 ft. Otherwise, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution across the nearshore (0-20nm) waters for seas up to 6 ft. Seas gradually diminish into Friday night as winds slacken and veer east and eventually southeast. Seas build up to 6 ft across the Gulf Stream again by Sunday as a long period swell increases from the northeast. Mostly dry conditions are forecast outside of isolated onshore-moving showers through Thursday night. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 120 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR conditions prevailing. However, brief MVFR CIG/VIS will be possible in isolated SHRA pushing S/SW and onshore. Coverage of showers is forecast to remain limited, mostly along the coast south of MLB. Have maintained VCSH through the overnight and Thu for coastal terminals (MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA). Otherwise, mostly dry conditions continue at MCO/SFB. North winds 5-7 knots thru 12Z will veer NNE through the morning and increase to 10-15 knots with higher gusts near 20 knots, especially along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 82 68 80 64 / 0 10 0 0 MCO 84 68 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 81 68 / 20 20 0 0 VRB 84 71 82 67 / 20 20 0 0 LEE 84 64 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 84 66 82 63 / 0 10 0 0 ORL 84 67 83 63 / 0 10 0 0 FPR 84 70 81 66 / 20 20 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1248555 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 108 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unseasonably cool airmass brings below normal temps and blustery conditions Thursday with ocean effect clouds along the southeast New England coast along with a few passing showers towards the Cape and Islands later Thursday and Thursday night. Warming trend for Friday into the weekend before turning more unsettled as we move into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages * Chilly and blustery tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s Tonight Deep north/northwest flow continues to usher cool/dry air over southern New England tonight. 925 hPa temps dip to near freezing. This will support surface temperatures in the low to mid 30s across southern New England. Temperatures will be more mild near the coast in the upper 30s to low 40s...mid 40s Cape Cod. Tight pressure gradient will support steady northwest winds from 10-15 mph overnight which will yield wind chill temperatures near or below freezing for most of the region. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Key Messages * Cooler temperatures tomorrow with continued gusty north/northwest winds * Ocean effect rain showers likely over parts of The South Shore, Cape Cod, and The Islands. Tomorrow Little change in the overall synoptic setup tomorrow, though temperatures will be much cooler as an upper-level low over northern Maine digs south/southeast past southern New England during the day tomorrow. This will place a rather robust upper-level cold pool over our area with 500 hPa temps as low as -25C over southern New England and 925 hPa temps below 0C to start Thursday. Steep lapse rates will support efficient diurnal mixing which will result in high temperatures in the low-mid 50s and also periods of 25-30 mph northwest wind gusts across southern New England. The cooler air over the relatively warmer ocean will likely result in some ocean- effect showers over Cape Cod, The Islands, and perhaps sections of The South Shore beginning tomorrow afternoon. Overall a cool/windy day. Tomorrow Night The atmosphere will likely decouple across the interior overnight, bringing an end to gusty northwest winds for most locations. However, milder temperatures near the coast may continue to support steep low-level lapse rates and enough mixing to support continued gusty northwest winds overnight, particularly over Cape Cod. Expected continued ocean effect showers over The Cape/Islands tomorrow night as well. There won`t be a whole lot of moisture to work with so we`re not anticipating any significant accumulations, but perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of new rainfall by Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages... * Dry Fri/Sat/Sun with moderating temps..highs may approach 70 on Sun * Some showers possible early next week...but timing is uncertain Details... Friday/Saturday/Sunday... A mid level ridge axis approaches from the west as the upper trough shifts east of the region. This will result in continued dry weather with moderating temperatures. High temps Fri should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with still some NW wind gusts around 20 mph. 850T warm significantly by Saturday and while we will not be able to mix that deep or fully realize at the surface...still expect highs to reach the lower to middle 60s with light winds. As the high shifts east of the region...high temps will probably reach between 65 and 70 on Sunday. Early Next Week... A vigorous shortwave trough will lift northeast across the Great Lakes early next week with an associated surface low. A cold front extending southward from the low pressure system will likely bring a period of showers to the region sometime early next week...roughly in the late Sunday night to Monday timeframe. However...there are a few ensemble members that hint at a stronger secondary low pressure system developing near or south of southern New England. If this were to occur...another period of rain would be possible sometime Tuesday into Wednesday...especially if this were to develop to our south. Whether or not this happens...appears that we will see at least one round of showers early next week in the late Sunday night into Monday timeframe. As for temperatures...they likely run a bit above normal especially in regards to overnight lows. High temps will probably top out mainly in the lower to middle 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today: High Confidence VFR with MVFR possible over the Cape and Islands and Ocean effect strato cumulus form. Boundary layer winds will continue to stay decoupled overnight which will lead to windshear issues as 2kft winds increase to 30-35 knots. After Sunrise, Stronger winds aloft will begin to mix down brining NW gusts of 25-30 knots for all terminals. Tonight: Moderate Confidence VFR with MVFR across the Cape and Islands. Winds aloft at 2-3kft will be increasing to 40-45 knots from the NNW overnight. There is some uncertainty if the boundary layer decouples from the surface again tomorrow night. Given the possibility, opted to include wind shear for TAF sites across the interior overnight. Tomorrow: High Confidence VFR. Not quite as windy as today with NW gusts to 20 knots inland, 30 knots near the waters. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds gusting up to 30 knots today. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2kft turn more northerly and increase to 35-40 knots. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. VFR. NW winds up to 25 knots. Less windy overnight, but winds at 2 kft will turn more northerly and increase to 40-45 knots. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Marine Through Thursday Night Gusty northwest winds will dominate the coastal waters through Friday. 20-30 knot winds overnight will gradually increase to 25-35 knots tomorrow afternoon. Seas build to 4 to 7 feet overnight and increase to 5 to 10 feet tomorrow evening. Seas will be lower off the south coast in the 3 to 5 foot range. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ230-233-234-236. Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ231-232-250-251-254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-256. && $$ |
| #1248554 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1209 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Best chance of showers and storms will be late Saturday and Sunday as a cold front moves through the area. - Aside from Saturday and Sunday, dry weather is expected with above normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Upper ridging centered over Arkansas, with an upper trough along the Nevada-Utah border. At the surface, high pressure was centered over Lake Superior, extending southward along the length of the Mississippi River Valley. Regional upper air soundings during the evening continued to show precipitable water values near the 25th percentile (about 0.9 inches). This is reflected in the lack of any significant cloud cover over land until near the Ohio River. High temperatures Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the mid and upper 80s, although Bogalusa did reach 90. The upper ridge will drift eastward over the next 36 hours to near a Pensacola to Detroit line. The surface high will shift eastward as well, to be centered over the Appalachians Friday afternoon. By that time, the upper trough will be exiting the Rockies. Low level flow will become more noticeably onshore by Friday. Moisture levels won`t really have responded by Friday evening, with precipitable water values still only near the 50th percentile (1.25 inches). Probably not much more than high cloud cover, even on Friday afternoon. Afternoon highs will again be in the 85 to 90 range for most of the area this afternoon, a few degrees below record levels. Highs Friday should be a couple degrees lower, as the more significant onshore flow will be crossing waters that are only around 80F. Any fog development this morning should be rather isolated and near warmer waters, but might be a little more abundant Friday morning, especially near and north of Interstate 12. Should burn off quickly in either case. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 While the main portion of the upper trough moves toward the Great Lakes Saturday, the synoptic models hold a southern stream piece of the trough somewhere between El Paso and Phoenix. This brings into question whether the local area will really see a cold frontal passage over the weekend. The operational ECMWF from Wednesday morning does eventually bring a weakened front through the area on Sunday, but the 18z GFS never does. This would certainly lend credence to the NBM holding onto precipitation chances through the daytime hours Sunday. Moisture levels do eventually improve enough to support shower and thunderstorm development Saturday night into Sunday, but forecast amounts aren`t likely to be sufficient to eliminate the precipitation deficit most areas are experiencing over the last couple months. Probably well less than an inch in most areas. The main storm track is expected to remain north of the local area for early to middle portions of next week, but a shortwave moving through the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley and its associated cold front could bring another minor chance of precipitation sometime around Tuesday. Temperature guidance was generally a blend between the the ECMWF and GFS solutions, with the GFS being considerably warmer for Sunday into the first half of next week. Sunday into Monday will be dependent on the cold frontal passage. From the 12z Wednesday runs, morning lows Monday (10/20) showed about a 15-20 degree range over the northern half of the area, with the NBM leaning toward the cooler solution. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 All forecast terminals VFR at issuance time, and for the most part should remain that way. Cannot rule out fog closer to sunrise, as there has already been very isolated low visibilities at KNBG and KPQL, which are not forecast terminals, but they tend to report fog considerably more often than the forecast terminals. None of the state transportation department cameras (LA and MS) in those areas showing fog as of 0430z. Feel the threat might be a little greater tomorrow night as low level moisture increases. Similar to Wednesday afternoon, could see some very small, very flat cumulus clouds during the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure centered over the area will gradually shift to the east and southeast today and Friday. Winds will turn more east- southeasterly and increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight and Friday in response to the departing high. Seas then also rise to 2 to 4 feet by Friday due to these stronger winds. A frontal system is expected to slide through the waters late in the weekend. Winds may briefly get into the 15 to 20 knot range Friday night into Saturday, but currently do not see any prolonged periods with wind speeds of 20 knots. After the front moves through late on Sunday, winds will shift to the northwest, but choppy conditions will persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 88 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 89 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 87 61 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 88 68 88 71 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 86 66 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 88 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248553 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1202 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Dry weather conditions continue to prevail through Friday as upper ridging remains in place. Upper ridging gradually breaks down Friday night into Saturday as upper troughing transits the central into south-central CONUS. Forecast guidance remains variable on the exact amplitude, tilt, and timing of the troughs passage which will have an impact on timing and potential intensity of rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Right now it appears the most likely period for isolated to scattered showers and storms will exist from the early morning hours Sunday through Sunday afternoon. A cold front pushes through the area Sunday evening once again bringing dry weather back into the forecast Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through early next week for afternoon highs. Middle to upper 80`s can be expected through Saturday with lower to middle 80`s Sunday into Monday, perhaps warming back up by Tuesday into the middle 80`s. Overnight temperatures will be a bit more variable, gradually warming each night from upper 50`s and lower 60`s tonight to middle to upper 60`s by Saturday night. In the wake of the cold front, we return to the lower to middle 50`s over the interior and middle 50`s to lower 60`s nearer the coast Sunday night through Tuesday night. For folks heading out to our Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches this weekend our rip current risk will be steadily increasing. We go from a Low risk today and tonight to a Moderate risk for the day Friday into Friday night. By Saturday, a High risk for rip currents will be present, likely lasting through the day Sunday. In the wake of the cold front, our rip current risk will decrease Monday to a Moderate risk. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 VFR flight category prevails across the region the rest of the night through the day today. Calm winds through daybreak become northeasterly by mid morning around 5 knots. Coastal counties become easterly to southeasterly this afternoon around 5 to 10 knots. Winds calm once again after sunset this evening. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A light mainly southeasterly flow develops this afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow Saturday shifts southerly to southwesterly Sunday ahead of a cold front. Offshore flow Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 87 62 85 66 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 50 Pensacola 65 86 68 83 70 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 50 Destin 67 85 69 82 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Evergreen 57 91 59 88 61 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Waynesboro 57 88 57 87 61 86 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 50 Camden 58 88 60 87 63 86 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 60 Crestview 57 89 60 86 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248552 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1207 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 East to southeast onshore flow will bring a gradual increase in surface moisture over the next couple of days. In the short term, this means we could see a few streamer showers along the coast Thursday morning as moisture convergence approaches 50 g/kg/12hr, especially north of Port Aransas. As is typical, most of these will produce only very light rainfall amounts and should be very brief. We`ll also have a noticeable increase in humidity as dewpoints approach 70 near the coast. An inverted trough along the coast Thursday will be absorbed into an approaching mid-level trough Thursday night into Friday. The energy associated with the trough will bring increased rain chances, but mainly over the offshore waters Thursday night and Friday. We will maintain a 10-20% probability of precip in the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. For the weekend we`ll be watching a cold front approach...and then watching it most likely stall north of our area, once again leaving us waiting for our first good cool down of the fall. That said, the ECMWF deterministic run and ensembles are a little farther south with it than previous runs have been, so will keep a little bit of hope that we could see it push through. Regardless of if it pushes through, the airmass ahead of it is too dry to bring any real chance for rainfall, and temperatures are not likely to drop much for the daytime, but a decrease in humidity should bring slightly cooler overnight lows, mainly inland. Return southeasterly flow returns by early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Primarily VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF period, though MVFR visibility at VCT and ALI are possible from 08Z-13Z. Have also continued a mention for MVFR ceilings at LRD and COT from 10Z-16Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early Thursday morning (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25-35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. A boundary moving into the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for the day. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low throughout the period and generally remain under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 87 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 87 65 89 68 / 10 0 40 0 Laredo 92 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 87 73 88 74 / 10 10 30 10 Cotulla 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 67 91 69 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 85 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1248549 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:03 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1253 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - High Rip Current Risk SE GA through Tonight, NE FL through Friday night - Small Craft Advisory Offshore through Friday afternoon - Minor Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Main Impact Area: St. Johns River Basin South of Duval County, and coastal St Johns and coastal Flagler counties && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Ridging will extend across the region this period, from a high centered over the Great Lakes. A trough is expected to be along the east coast of local area. Onshore flow around the high will be enhanced by the trough, leading to elevated and gusty winds along the coast. Dry weather will persist this period. Highs Today will be near seasonal averages, and below Tonight. Patchy fog will be possible early this morning, especially in areas where inland water ways and swampy areas add to low level moisture. Have extended the coastal flood advisory through this evening for afternoon tide cycle. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A ridge of high pressure will extend across the area Friday, from a center over the eastern Great Lakes. Weak troughing will persist along the coast, which will enhance onshore flow. Friday will continue the stretch of dry weather with highs a bit below average. The high pressure ridge will move off shore Friday night through Saturday. While the onshore flow will continue under this pattern, the coastal trough is expected to dissipate. As a result coastal winds will be lighter. The dry weather will continue through Saturday. Lows Friday night will be below average, with highs a little below on Saturday. Ridging keeps the dry weather in place into Saturday night, with temperatures continuing below average. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will move off to the east Sunday, allowing a cold front to move into the area Sunday night. This front may not be able to push all the way through Sunday night, before lifting back to the north of the area Monday into Tuesday. If this weekends front does not produce rain, the next significant chance will come with another front Wednesday. However, this front is also expected to weaken as it moves into area. So, at this point leaving chances less than 10 percent. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday into Sunday night, then near normal for Monday. Lows will be below normal both Monday night and Tuesday night, with above normal highs for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light, variable winds trending calm inland through the rest of the morning. Light fog may develop at inland airfields such as KVQQ and KGNV. Today, northeasterly winds will steer some lower, flat cumulus onshore but VFR is expected to be maintained. Breezes once again this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots. SKC conditions develop tonight as winds trend light to calm once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 1244 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 High pressure will prevail to the north northeast through Saturday. A weak coastal trough will persist through Friday. The high will move off to the east Sunday. A weakening cold front will move into the region and stall Sunday night into Monday, before lifting back to the north. Weak high pressure will be over the area Tuesday. Rip Currents: SE GA - High Risk through Tonight, then Moderate. NE FL - High Risk through Friday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 83 54 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 77 64 76 63 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 82 61 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 79 67 79 64 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 85 60 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 84 61 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038- 132-137-138-325-333-633. High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1248548 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 16.Oct.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher on Thursday, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms gradually increase Thursday going into the weekend with a weak cold front approaching the area on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 I know it`s spooky season and all, but I really want to know why summerlike weather keeps coming back like a zombie?! Just when you think it`s over...BAM! back in the 90s. At least on Wednesday most locations only topped out in the upper 80s. However, our normal high temperature is in the low 80s. I was curious on when was the last time we actually had below normal daytime temperatures (for the City of Houston)...it was September 9th...big yikes. We owe a big ol` thank you to La Nina for that! If you really want to be spooked, take a look temperature outlooks from CPC! Alright, that`s enough delaying. There is a weak cold front to talk about at least (GFS: Not so fast my friend!)...yeah even that has recently come into question. The main ridge axis will slide eastward throughout the day on Thursday as an embedded shortwave trough pushes through the area. With onshore flow back, there looks to be enough moisture to generate some isolated showers as early as near sunrise right along the coast. Isolated rain chances stick around into the afternoon hours as we could see some development along the seabreeze. Most of us will just see an increase in cloud cover though, which will be enough to relegate high temperatures to the mid to upper 80s. As onshore flow continues to increase going into Friday, we`ll see PW values surge into the 1.6-2.0" range. This means that we`ll have a better chance of isolated to scattered showers/storms along the seabreeze, and we could see that additional convection further inland as PVA lingers from the embedded shortwave trough. These rain chances stick around going into Saturday as an upper level trough and an associated weak cold front begin to push through Texas. More on that later...but temperatures on Saturday will hot for this time of the year with highs mainly in the low 90s. With elevated humidity added into that, we`ll see heat index values in the upper 90s. The weak cold front looks to potentially begin to push through the region on early Sunday morning, but as y`all saw earlier the GFS has something different in mind. The 18Z deterministic GFS stalls the front out north of the Brazos Valley and never has the front push through. "But that`s just the deterministic, what about the ensembles?!" Well I`m glad you asked! The majority of the GFS ensemble members keeps PW values around or above 1.4" through the middle of next week, which is NOT indicative of drier air filtering in. Compare that to the 18Z Euro where the majority of its ensemble members reflect PW values below 0.5" on Sunday, which IS indicative of drier air filtering in behind a front. So, we`ll either be very dry or we keep the humidity...and that`s today`s fun with ensemble guidance! If the front pushes through or not, we`re still expecting a quick turnaround of onshore flow by Monday as another ridge looks to build in briefly. There are some signs of another cold front next week, but not going to spend much time talking about so that I don`t jinx that front too. Essentially, another trough pushes through the Central Plains in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe and that could push a cold front through the area. There is at least some downward trend in temperatures next week, but we`ll continue to monitor trends. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail. ESE wind around 6-10 kts will continue through sunset, then becoming more light and variable overnight, with ESE to SE winds of 6-10 kts returning by mid-morning Thursday. Like the past few nights, there will be a period of patchy fog at LBX late tonight. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Onshore flow makes a return tonight into early Thursday morning leading to the gradual increase of moisture through the end of the work week. Isolated shower/storm chances return as early as Thursday morning near the Bays and coastal Gulf waters. Shower/storm chances increase going into Friday as onshore flow increases. Wind speeds may approach the caution flag threshold on Friday night into Saturday morning to along with seas elevating to around 4 ft. This increased onshore flow will lead to an increased risk in rip currents late Friday and into the weekend. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms persists until a frontal boundary pushes through on Sunday. There are some questions on if the front pushes all the way offshore though, which will have an impact on rain chances and winds. Even if it does push through, onshore flow looks to make a quick return by Monday. Batiste && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 As onshore flow makes a return to Southeast Texas late tonight/early Thursday morning, we`ll finally get to see some higher minimum RH values. There will be good RH recovery tonight into Thursday morning as most areas will be above 80%. Minimum RH values on Thursday afternoon will be in the 40-55% range, which is much more manageable than what we`ve seen over the past few days. Rain chances will still be on the slim side, but could see a few isolated showers/storms. I mention that because fuels are still dry especially north of I-10. The latest Texas A&M Forest Service reflects a moderate to high fire danger rating for Thursday, with the high fire danger rating being for portions of the Piney Woods. Please continue to exercise caution when working with open flames or equipment that can cause sparks. Moisture and chances for showers/storms will continue to go on an upward trend Friday and through the weekend as our eyes will be on an approaching weak cold front. Rain chances stick around until that weak cold front pushes through the area, but recent model guidance indicates that there is some potential that the front doesn`t push all the way through the area. If the front manages to push through, then we could see an overlap of drier air (minimum RH values 20-30%) and elevated enough winds to create another day of elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday especially for our northern areas. We`ll continue to keep an eye on both the weak cold front and the potential for elevated fire weather conditions as the weekend approaches. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 30 Houston (IAH) 66 87 70 87 / 0 10 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 76 83 76 85 / 0 20 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
