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| #1274045 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. - Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create hazardous conditions for small craft through Sunday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Have updated to expand low end rain chances this morning to include more of interior areas based on current radar loop. Made other minor adjustments. /29 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated to scattered convection will be possible today and into the evening hours, with additional convection anticipated overnight as a cold front moves into the area. MVFR conditions will accompany the stronger storms, and patchy fog will be possible late tonight mainly over eastern portions of the area. Calm or light westerly winds early this morning become southwesterly 5-10 knots today, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow for tonight through Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters today. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 7 pm this evening until 10 am Sunday for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended into early Sunday evening if the southwesterly flow maintains a strength near 20 knots. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 77 92 72 / 10 40 30 10 Pensacola 91 80 90 77 / 20 60 70 30 Destin 90 81 89 79 / 30 60 80 50 Evergreen 91 74 91 70 / 30 30 30 10 Waynesboro 95 73 91 69 / 10 40 0 0 Camden 91 73 89 70 / 20 60 10 0 Crestview 92 76 90 72 / 40 50 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274044 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 740 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights For Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly for I-75 corridor The weak frontal boundary currently just north of the Altamaha river will gradually lift northward today as a warm front ahead of a stronger cold front moving into the SE US. WSW flow strengthens this morning advecting in a more tropical airmass with PWATs of 2+ inches. This will ignite nocturnal convection over Apalachee Bay and the NE Gulf which will shift onshore during the predawn hours potentially progressing into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by sunrise. Convection then increases through the day and spreads ENE across NE FL and SE GA later this afternoon into evening. A cluster of upper level disturbances move in from the NW this afternoon and linger over the area tonight allowing for activity to continue well into the night and potentially into Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs, ample instability and support from the approaching upper impulses, numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce localized flash flooding with a few thunderstorms producing gusty winds of 40-55 mph. WPC has highlighted the I-75 corridor in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area for today. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday Sunday, the trough will move towards the southern Appalachians into Sunday night, becoming elongated north to south as Atlantic ridge begins to build westward towards the Atlantic waters off the southeast US coast. This will slow the surface front across the deep south just northwest of our area. The squeeze between the two mid to upper level features will yield increasing low level SW flow and tap higher moisture levels into the area with PWATs surging to near daily records of 2.20-2.40 inches. The high moisture, lift and instability ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms focused over the western half of inland NE FL shifting north and eastward into SE GA and the coast through the afternoon hours. Isolated strong to severe storms will develop where storm outflows and cell mergers interact. Widespread totals Sunday of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall west of I-75 with less rainfall towards the coast, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible with any slow moving or training cells (successive storms moving over the same area) which could lead to flooding in low lying and urban locations. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and a Marginal risk to the the rest of NE FL and SE GA. Breezy SW winds 10-15 mph will prevail Sunday with gusts to 20- 25 mph ahead of storms while more intense storms could produce gusts 40-60 mph. Sunday`s highs will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies showers and storms, only reaching the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Monday, the shortwave trough to the north will begin to become a closed, cut off trough across the southern Appalachian mountains While Atlantic high pressure ridging aloft builds into the Bahamas. Breezy south to southwest winds will once again prevail 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Shortwave energy from the trough and convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will lead to numerous to widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms Highs will be similar Monday in the upper 80s for NE FL and near 90 across SE GA and the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek Tuesday, the closed mid to upper level trough will slowly lift away to the NNE as Atlantic ridging moves across the south and central FL peninsula. This will create a more typical Seabreeze regime of afternoon thunderstorms from Seabreeze interactions with scattered to numerous storms. The SW flow will decrease with Seabreezes merging near US-17 in the afternoon with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze. Wednesday into Thursday, Atlantic high pressure surface ridge axis will lift into SE GA with flow prevailing from the southeast and favoring a more inland progressing Atlantic seabreeze with scattered afternoon thunderstorms with Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes merging between highway 301 and I-75. Friday, the ridge axis will lift north of the area with easterly flow prevailing across the region and scattered T`storms developing well inland near I-75 Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday into Friday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to low 80s due to the onshore southeast to easterly flow. Lows will remain near normal with lows trending above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows warming to the upper 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Light generally southwesterly winds continue this morning hours, increasing around 10 kts by 18Z outside of SHRA and TSRA. Southerly winds develop at the coastal TAF sites after 16Z with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Waves of showers and storms will continue to move in from the west-southwest near GNV spreading to the rest of the TAF sites between 17-23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Weekend An active pattern will persists today the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Southeast Georgia. Southwesterly winds will become breezy 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph across NE FL with winds a bit less over SE GA 8-12 mph, becoming southeasterly at the coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. A wave of energy aloft and lift along the front and seabreezes will create Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The front will lift away as another front approaches from the northwest Sunday and then stall Monday just northwest of the area with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day and breezy southwest winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches west of I-75 and 1-2 inches towards the coast with locally heavier totals possible. Dispersions will be in the good range through the weekend as surface and transport winds increase slightly by Sunday while clouds increase and limit mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 89 73 / 90 60 80 60 SSI 90 76 91 75 / 90 50 80 40 JAX 92 74 89 73 / 70 30 80 30 SGJ 91 74 88 74 / 70 30 70 30 GNV 90 73 85 72 / 70 70 80 60 OCF 89 73 85 73 / 80 50 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274043 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 718 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t-storms. - A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. - Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t- storms. A warmer airmass remains overhead thanks to brief mid level ridging. This will continue to deliver highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. The ridge axis crosses SNE this morning then begins to break down slowly over the next 24-36 hours. For this reason, despite the surface high pressure nearby, introduced a slight chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the interior. That being said, the forecast for a mostly dry day persists, with just some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms given a few 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Any convection that does fire up has the potential to induce a quick downpour given PWATs still over 1". For most locations we`ll see a mix of sun and diurnal low level clouds. High clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day ahead of the approaching system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. The mid level ridge continues to break down on Sunday as an anomolous mid-level low digs into the Ohio Valley inducing a deepening surface low which itself very slowly tracks northeast. This wave moves into New England by Monday, accompanied by and preceded by an anomalous subtropical moisture plume with PWATS over 2" (2+SD above normal). Isentropically forced rain arrives by late Sunday evening (west) or Sunday night (east) as warm advection takes hold. The heaviest rainfall rates likely occur on Monday as the cold front advances at the surface. This, combined with forcing for ascent from a 35-45kt LLJ and placement under the RRQ of a 120kt 300mb jet will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across SNE. Still too soon to say where the heaviest amounts will be or how much, but ensemble guidance is not excited about potential for 2+ inches through Tuesday morning despite some deterministic guidance suggesting it. This will come into focus as we get into range of more high resolution guidance. The previously mentioned LLJ will bring gusty winds on Monday, especially over the Cape/islands and over the waters. KEY MESSAGE 3...Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. Low confidence forecast when it comes to how much, if any, of a break we see in wet weather between the exiting shortwave Monday night/early Tuesday and the next. That being said, no sprawling or persistent high pressure ridge is in the cards so periodic rain chances likely persist. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Light SW tonight then pick up to around 10-15 kt this afternoon and to 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274042 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 724 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 722 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 722 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Winds will gradually enhance out of a southwesterly direction this morning with the eventual development of an Atlantic sea-breeze at coastal terminals during the early afternoon hours. SHRA/TSRA is forecast to develop between 18-20z along the sea-breeze which may result in bouts of sub-MVFR cig/vis between 20-23z. Erratic and gusty winds may be realized at terminals as well in and around TSRA. L/V winds forecast once again overnight with increasing SHRA activity during the end of the TAF forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 40 10 West Kendall 93 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 93 80 / 40 30 40 20 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 50 30 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 91 80 / 50 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 92 81 / 40 30 40 20 West Palm Beach 93 77 92 78 / 70 30 60 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 50 30 Naples 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274041 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 616 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Low level clouds and patchy fog have spread across the central portions of S TX this morning, but is expected to dissipate by mid morning. This is leading to a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions. A few spots are IFR including ALI and VCT. VFR conditions by mid morning will continue through this afternoon and most of tonight. Brief MVFR conditions expected once again toward Sunday morning. However, guidance is indicating that IFR conditions are much less likely. S-SE winds 5-15 knots with occasional gusts around 20 knots, mainly eastern TAF sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274040 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through next week; Saturday through Monday will be the hottest period; SPSs to Heat Advisories will likely be needed. - High temperatures will generally range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices between 105-115F degrees through next week. - Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected through next week. - Breezy southeasterly winds will persist nearly each day through next week with speeds generally between 10-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph. - Mostly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Laguna Madre will persist nearly each day through next week. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the middle parts of next week. Driving our weather pattern will be a strong 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Additionally, an enhanced pressure and thermal gradient will result in breezy southeast winds nearly each day with speeds generally ranging between 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) to Heat Advisories may be needed each day going forward (especially Thursday through Sunday) as daytime high temperatures will range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices ranging generally between 105- 115F degrees. Heat Risk concerns will continue through the middle parts of next week. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Favorable aviation conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with limited cloud cover and rain-free skies. Winds will be light at night but breezy during the daytime with stronger gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with mainly moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will likely be needed each day over the Laguna Madre due to persistently breezy southeast winds from an enhanced pressure gradient. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 81 100 80 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 106 81 106 80 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274037 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 633 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 633 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of ~5 kts or less are being measured, with some upper cirrus moving across the area. The upper cirrus will remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning into the afternoon. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-12 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274035 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday through Monday. Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week A potent shortwave trough currently over the Upper/Mid MS Valley will track east-southeast into the Ohio and Tn Valley through the weekend before slowing down and potentially closing off over the SE US/southern Appalachians early next week. The system is then expected to linger while gradually weakening through midweek, before finally lifting off to the NE late in the work week. Deep southwesterly moisture transport between this slow moving system and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain an axis of anomalously moist air, with PWATs of 2.0- 2.50"(125-1505 of normal), across eastern portions of the Carolinas through much of the period. A northward lifting warm front will provide the initial focus for showers and storms on Sunday, with additional daily rounds of convection Mon-Wed aided by embedded shortwave impulses interacting with seabreeze and upper divergence associated with a jet over the Appalachians. As the trough gradually weakens, convective rain chances should transition to a more typical diurnally driven pattern as anomalous moisture remains in place. This unsettled pattern could provide some much needed drought relief, with widespread rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches expected during the period. Locally higher amounts will be possible where storms repeatedly track over the same area, which could also lead to isolated flooding. Despite widespread cloud cover and generally weak lapse rates, highs in the 80s combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s should support moderate instability, allowing for an isolated severe threat each day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday afternoon and linger through Monday. See marine section below. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon with increasing and thickening clouds high clouds through the day. Strengthening moisture advection ahead of an approaching front will support isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday evening into tonight with increasing chc of shwrs and thunderstorms into Sunday. Light SE winds of 5 to 10 kts will increase slightly by the afternoon, with some gusts up to 15 to 20 kts possible. Extended Forecast... A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday through at least the middle part of next. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Southeast winds gradually increase late this afternoon and veer to southerly Saturday night as a stalled front lifts back to the coast. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in breezy south winds with gusts likely to pass SCA criteria Sunday afternoon and likely to continue into Monday. Weak winds will yield benign seas between 1-3 ft through Saturday night. Seas rapidly increase to 4-6 ft as winds increase on Sunday and these continue into Monday before relaxing gradually Monday night and Tuesday. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274036 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 633 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Models have trended to more MVFR cigs today and especially with the rainfall today into this evening. Speaking of rain, showers and storms will develop and increase in coverage this morning as a shortwave trough moves into the area. Much of the day will be off and on convection with probabilities 70-90% beginning a little later this morning. Heading into this evening convection coverage should decrease till the overnight hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will redevelop affecting DHN/ABY/VLD after 06Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70 Panama City 88 79 87 77 / 70 60 90 70 Dothan 89 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50 Albany 89 73 88 73 / 90 50 90 40 Valdosta 91 73 88 72 / 80 30 80 70 Cross City 88 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80 Apalachicola 86 78 85 77 / 80 50 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274034 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - Later today, there is a 5-10% chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches in less than 2 hours. This may lead to localized flooding of urban and poorly drained areas. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Early this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a rather complex upper-air pattern across the U.S. for the first day of August. A pair of shortwaves is keeping a broad dip in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. The stronger of these two features is currently located near the Quad Cities. Exceptionally stout ridging extends from the Caribbean to the Desert Southwest, where 01/00Z RAOBs returned H5 heights of 601 dam at Flagstaff, AZ and 600 dam at El Paso, TX. Locally, H5 heights exceed 590 dam; warm mid-level temperatures are resulting in poor H7-H5 lapse rates, which is rather typical for the time of year. The energy approaching the Mississippi Valley will soon carve out a longwave trough; it will then move little through Sunday. A weak quasi-stationary front should remain well north of Central Florida. Mean southwesterly flow in the boundary layer maintains rich moisture over the state with PWAT values from 100-130% of normal through at least Monday. Amid subtle height falls, weak vorticity maxima are forecast to rotate around the trough west of Florida, providing forcing for occasional convection. By Monday, the Bermuda High will attempt to retrograde over the W Atlantic, promoting height rises over Florida. As ensemble members weaken the trough over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, the near-surface ridge axis is likely to trek north of our latitude by midweek, providing light onshore flow off the Atlantic. Confidence trails off late in the work week and toward next weekend. The 31/12Z grand ensemble and fellow AI members initialized an easterly wave over the Canary Islands. The model suite sends this disturbance westward across the Atlantic, perhaps approaching Florida by late Thursday or Friday. PWAT anomalies clearly show an increase in moisture associated with this feature, but we expect further refinements to the forecast as this disturbance is currently 3800 miles to our east. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Weekend... Periods of active weather should be expected. Those planning to be outdoors will need to listen for thunder, watch for darkening skies, and find safe shelter when storms threaten! Nocturnal showers and storms extending along the FL Panhandle early this morning suggest a weak disturbance is present. If this is the case, an earlier-than-normal start to showers and storms is on the table for today, perhaps as early as late morning/midday near and northwest of Interstate 4. Relatively weak offshore winds may allow a sea breeze to form and hug the coast. Boundary interactions would support numerous storms near and east of I-95 in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. There is a 5-10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3", especially along the coast. Localized urban flooding is possible where this rainfall occurs over poorly drained areas. Boundary-layer flow increases from Saturday night into Sunday. Additional weak energy approaching N FL is likely to spark overnight showers and storms northwest of our area, and some of this may reach Lake County overnight. This portends another early start to shower and storm chances on Sunday, especially over our northern half. Then, daytime heating will provide an additional spark for storm development over the eastern half of the peninsula. While shear is weak, the enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) will be sufficient for a few stronger storms with wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph. There is a very small chance for a severe gust to around 60 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices from 100 to 107. Of the two days, today looks slightly hotter. Monday - Tuesday... This still appears to be a transition period for local weather conditions. High pressure will begin to push overhead, weakening background flow just a bit. As that occurs, the sea breeze will begin to move inland each afternoon, with better progression especially by Tuesday. Near- to above-normal moisture values will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50% to 80%) each day. Seasonably hot temperatures will persist as well, outside of the storms. Wednesday - next Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, light onshore flow should finally return, giving us more typical summertime conditions. As the sea breeze pushes inland, a few storms may try to form closer to the coast before concentrating over the interior and points westward. By Friday and Saturday, the easterly wave mentioned in the overview may reach the state. Should this happen, it would provide increased moisture and an uptick in shower/storm opportunities late in the week. While a few deterministic runs have recently shown tropical development with this feature, the GEFS and EPS ensembles are generally unimpressed and favor an open wave/trough as it passes into the W Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Continued hot and muggy with highs near normal in the low/mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure remains situated south of the local Atlantic this weekend. A nearly-stationary front will stay to the north. Weak to moderate offshore flow persists, but as the sea breeze attempts to form, winds may turn southeasterly in the afternoon near the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving storms remain the primary hazard for boaters this weekend. Winds freshen some on Sunday, especially in the Gulf Stream. Next week, high pressure will lift slowly northward, with onshore breezes returning by midweek. SW to S winds up to 12 kt today, increasing to 12-18 kt on Sunday. Winds slowly turn out of the SE early next week, up to 12 kt. Seas of 1-2 ft nearshore, except locally 3 ft off of Volusia County on Sunday. Seas reach 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream north of Cape Canaveral on Sunday and early Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Patchy MVFR CIGs possible across north interior terminals, incl MCO, through 14Z or so. Will start LEE off with VCSH given ongoing convection pushing in off the Gulf and expand that to all northern terminals at 14Z then transition to VCTS. W/SW flow will continue today 7-10 knots but slightly weaker than Fri and this should allow the east coast sea breeze to more fully form along the coast but inland progress will be difficult as it fights the offshore flow. Have adjusted TEMPOs starting at LEE (16Z), then MCO/SFB at 17Z. With a better chance of a sea breeze along the coast, also added TEMPO TS conds for coastal terminals starting at 18Z-19Z. Gusty winds around 35 knots will accompany the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 88 74 / 80 20 80 20 MCO 92 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 10 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 70 20 60 10 VRB 91 73 91 74 / 70 30 60 10 LEE 89 75 86 75 / 70 50 80 30 SFB 92 76 89 75 / 80 30 70 10 ORL 92 76 89 75 / 70 30 70 10 FPR 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274033 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) this afternoon. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated to widely scattered showers/ storms later today / this evening, though a morning shower is possible in our northern counties. - Forecast has trended hotter for Sunday and especially Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 As of 12AM CDT, there are few things that catch my eye as I write this AFD. Water vapor imagery is currently telling a story of a flow pattern in flux. The ridge that has dominated Texas weather over the last weak is shifting west, with the center of its ridge axis firmly over W CONUS. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Midwest is diving east to southeast, while its trailing cold front extends all the way down into SE Oklahoma and N Texas. The airmass behind the front is also of interest, featuring decreasing dew points and cooler temperatures. Me thinks the falling dew points are in SE TX`s future....the cooler temps not so much. The HRRR continues to insist on a band of showers that develops over our northern counties early this morning. The showers push southward, fizzling out before reaching the I-10 corridor. Some of the other CAMs suggest the presence of an isolated shower or two. There does appear to be plenty of dry air in the 900-700 MB zone. But ML water vapor imagery suggests there is slightly less ML dry air in our northern zones. So I kept some PoPs in the forecast north of I-10 this morning to give the HRRR a little weight in the forecast. We shall see... This aforementioned front should continue its southward push, reaching our neck of the woods by later today or tonight. There`s still some question regarding the timing of the front. Will the front be able to interact with peak daytime heating? Latest guidance suggest it won`t arrive in SE TX until the evening, when daytime heating is being lost. Therefore, the chance of seeing showers/thunderstorms has decreased but has not been eliminated for later today. A veering wind profile ahead of the front will support a modest WAA regime when the air is already quite hot. Forecast peak heat indices from the I-10 counties to the coast are generally 107-110 degrees, warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM CDT in our southern zones. There could be a sweet spot that`s just inland enough to limit Gulf influence but also just coastal enough to limit mixing that manages to reach 111-112F. Sunday may feature some showers and isolated storms near the coast and offshore in the morning. Otherwise, much drier air infiltrates the area in the front`s wake. Mid/upper heights will be at their lowest on Sunday, generally supporting a cooler temperature profile. But drier air and the August sun should boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 (low 90s coast). Inland dew points are expected to be well down into the 60s, which should keep heat indices below advisory criteria. The dry air may not make it to the coast. So if you`re in a coastal county, you may remain in the humid soup. But on Monday, the ridge builds back into the region, warming the temperatures profile. With a similar dry LL regime remaining in place, Monday`s actual temperatures cold get quite hot. Right now, we have high temperatures ~100 degrees across most inland areas. But this is technically a little "cooler" than most of the guidance. If forecast temperatures trend another 2-3 degree higher, then we could be approaching Heat Advisory criteria for actual temperatures (103+). The high heat may linger into Tuesday before temperatures attempt to modify down to normal by mid/late week. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Cluster of showers is currently moving southward towards our northern terminals ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This band of showers is expected to dissipate before it makes it to the Houston metro terminals. Additionally, low-end MVFR ceilings are ongoing across the northern terminals (CXO and northward) and will likely persist through 15Z. Can`t rule out brief MVFR ceilings at IAH this morning. High resolution model guidance has trended drier for this afternoon. However, given that showers are already developing up north, have decided to keep the PROB30`s for showers in the afternoon for IAH and northward. Further south, confidence remains too low to include any SH mentions. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either for sites with the PROB30`s. Winds will start out southwesterly this morning around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. Winds will become light and northerly behind the front. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Southwest winds 10-15 knots should gradually increase to 15-20 knots later today into tonight. For Galveston Bay and our eastern Gulf zones, winds may gust to around 25 knots at times. Small vessels should exercise caution later today into tonight. A frontal boundary approaches the area this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning. Westerly winds are expected on Sunday, followed by continued light to moderate south to southwest winds through much of the upcoming week. Winds may become more south-southeast late in the week. Seas should primarily be 2-3 feet, but could build to 4 feet (locally 5ft) Saturday night in our eastern Gulf zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 75 99 73 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 99 79 100 78 / 20 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 94 82 92 82 / 10 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday morning for GMZ375. && $$ |
| #1274032 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 533 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Mostly VFR conditions through the cycle. Convection this afternoon will likely remain over the eastern terminals (GPT). However, later tonight and early Sunday convection will be possible for most terminals outside of MCB. In convection expect brief reductions to MVFR or maybe lower in the strongest convection. Otherwise, southwesterly winds will increase this afternoon and decrease once we decouple after sunset tonight. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ532-534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ534>536-541-543-551-553-554-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1274031 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 622 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAF cycle. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. The upper flow will become increasingly cyclonic through the day as a powerful upper low digging across Mid-Mississippi Valley propagates into the western Ohio Valley by tonight. At the surface, a weak warm front extending across parts of the Lowcountry into the Midlands will meander north through the day placing all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia solidly within the warm sector of the maturing cyclone associated with the upper low. A few morning showers could brush parts of the lower South Carolina coast through daybreak, but the better chances or showers/tstms will hold off until later this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves inland and potent shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Forcing with this feature coupled with modest instability will support scattered to numerous showers/tstms by mid-late afternoon with activity likely concentrating across much of Southeast Georgia into the far western South Carolina Lowcountry by early evening. PWATs are forecast to surge to 2.35-2.50" which will be near daily maximums for 1 August per SPC sounding climatology. While 850-200 hPa flow will remain out of the southwest at around 10 kt suggests storm motions should remain somewhat progressive, mesoscale boundary collisions will likely augment the steering environment somewhat with the potential for training and/or back-building increasing with time as CAPE profiles elongate and narrow (a classic heavy rain signature). Given the near record net moisture values, impressive hourly rainfall rates will likely occur with the 01/00z HREF and REFS both suggesting localized amounts in excess of 3-4"/3-hr are possible (neighborhood probabilities for >3" running 30-50%), mainly across interior portions of Southeast Georgia into Allendale and Hampton Counties in Southeast South Carolina. This could lead to pockets of flash flooding even with fairly high 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance values in place. The need for a Flood Watch for the above mentioned areas was considered, but the decision was made to hold off given the degree of flash flooding should remain fairly isolated and likely limited to the base- level category. Coordinated with WPC to introduce a slight risk across the far interior areas through tonight for the Day 1 WFO excessive rainfall guidance. Right now, the corridor of heaviest rains look to remain west of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas. In addition to the risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, a strong to marginally severe tstm could occur just about anywhere this afternoon and evening where updrafts can become enhanced, most likely near mesoscale boundary collisions. Convection should wane during the evening hours, but there are signals that a secondary wave could spread north through the region early Sunday morning and more shortwave energy approaches and interacts with a continued very moist and unstable atmosphere. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. As a mid-level trough settles over the eastern CONUS Sunday, a cold front will inch toward the forecast area Sunday into Monday before stalling. This pattern, combined with a very moist airmass, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week. Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values increasing to around 2.2 inches by Sunday morning and remaining between 2.2 and 2.4 inches through Monday and possibly Tuesday. These conditions will favor efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates, increasing the potential for localized flooding. While most flooding impacts should remain minor, repeated heavy downpours or training convection over urban areas such as the Charleston and Savannah metro areas could warrant Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings. With regards to the severe potential, the primary limiting factor will be modest instability, with forecast soundings suggesting SBCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg as widespread cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Despite this, the combination of deep moisture and forcing aloft as lobes of vorticity rotate around the upper trough, should support at least scattered thunderstorms, with the strongest cells capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Sunday appears to have the greatest threat for isolated strong to severe storms due to the proximity of the approaching front providing an additional source of forcing, but also increasing shear values to around 15 kt. This could could allow some storms to become somewhat organized, especially inland. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 01/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: VFR should prevail for much of the 12z TAF period, trending to MVFR prior to daybreak Sunday The risk for showers/tstms should generally remain west of both terminals this afternoon/evening, but could get close enough to justify a PROB30 at KCHS from roughly 19-21z until the sea breeze can push farther to the west. A secondary around of showers/tstms will move in from the south prior to daybreak Sunday, which could produce MVFR conditions. A PROB30 group was introduced 09-12z at both KCHS and KJZI to address possibility. KSAV: VFR this morning with an increasing risk for tstm impacts by mid-afternoon. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA were introduced 21-00z. Conditions could certainly end up lower to IFR or even LIFR levels at times, but pinning that down this far out is nearly impossible. Conditions were limited to MVFR for now. In addition, gusty winds could accompany the tstms, but to what degree is uncertain. Further refinements will mostly certainly be made as the day progress and short term trends become more apparent. A secondary around of showers/tstms will move in from the south prior to daybreak Sunday, which could produce MVFR conditions. A PROB30 group was introduced 09-12z at both KCHS and KJZI to address possibility. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: There are no concerns. South to southeast winds this morning will persist today, then become more south to southwest tonight. Winds will remain 15 kt or less today, then increase to 15 kt to 15-20 kt tonight as nocturnal surging takes hold. Seas 1-3 ft today will build to 2-4 ft tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 7 to 8 second swell will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been posted for the South Carolina beaches, and a similar risk may eventually be needed along the southeast Georgia coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274030 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light and variable winds will persist through this afternoon. - A more active weather pattern develops by early next week with higher rain chances and increasing southeasterly winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Another night of shower-free KBYX radar. While the Atlantic surface ridge continues to dominate our weather not much has changed in the last 24 hours. Winds along the Reef are light and variable. Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s. Today we can expect similar conditions to continue though off the Upper Keys there could be another slight freshening of breezes in the afternoon. Waterspout formation is possible again if a cloud line is able to develop from the light and variable winds. Early this week the mid level trough will still be in place over the southeast and in the Gulf waters though mid level ridging will attempt to push back in the region. Surface high in the western Atlantic will result in winds becoming more easterly to southeasterly and slightly freshening around Monday. Moisture will move into the area and rain chances will gradually increase this week though models are suggesting higher than what we have advertised. Easterly winds will continue through a majority of the week and rain chances will peak on Wednesday through Thursday. Thereafter, mostly sunny skies will return with near normal rain chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, weak nebulous flow with light to gentle breezes will continue as the western periphery of an Atlantic surface ridge slides westward across the Keys putting the coastal waters in a col region. As high pressure strengthens in the North Atlantic, southeast breezes will freshen by the second half of the weekend and into early next week. In addition, rain chances will also be increasing by next week as deeper moisture spreads into the region ahead of a frontal boundary approaching northern Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Limited shower development is expected today therefore no mention of VCSH at either terminal. Near surface winds will be light and variable through the afternoon. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274029 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 428 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SE winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SE flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274028 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated convection will be possible overnight over eastern portions of the area, then isolated to scattered convection is expected on Saturday mainly along/east of the Alabama/Mobile Rivers. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, and some patchy overnight fog will be possible over interior areas as well. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Moderate westerly winds become a moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly flow for tonight through Sunday before diminishing Sunday night. Small craft should exercise caution mainly over the open Gulf waters today. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 7 pm this evening until 10 am Sunday for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended into early Sunday evening if the southwesterly flow maintains a strength near 20 knots. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 93 77 92 72 / 10 40 30 10 Pensacola 91 80 90 77 / 20 60 70 30 Destin 90 81 89 79 / 30 60 80 50 Evergreen 91 74 91 70 / 30 30 30 10 Waynesboro 95 73 91 69 / 10 40 0 0 Camden 91 73 89 70 / 20 60 10 0 Crestview 92 76 90 72 / 40 50 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1274026 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 327 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 - A tropical wave will continue to move across the region today, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend, which may result in localized flooding and disruptions to outdoor activities. - Choppy seas up to 6 feet will persist through today while up to a moderate risk of rip currents persist through at least Monday. - Low concentrations of Saharan dust will continue through tomorrow evening before increasing to moderate (and possibly high) to start the workweek, this will result in deteriorated air quality and hazy skies - Heat risks will also persist for lower elevation and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through most of the period with significant to elevated levels possible during the workweek. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Recent satellite observations show Precipitable Water (PWAT) values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches over the islands, with higher amounts of 1.8 to about 2 inches concentrated to the southern waters. Guided by an east-southeast flow, the moisture field from a tropical wave passing south of the islands, combined with an upper-level low situated west-southwest of Puerto Rico, has generated an increase in overnight showers and isolated t-storms across the region. Rainfall accumulations recorded since midnight have affected mainly St. Thomas, St. John, and the eastern third of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra. Stations show around a quarter of an inch of rain in Culebra, while isolated areas in Puerto Rico received between a quarter and slightly over half an inch. Meanwhile, stations report that overnight low temperatures ranged from the mid- to- upper 70s and low 80s across urban and lower-elevation areas of the islands, dropping into the 60s across higher elevations of Puerto Rico. The moisture field from the above mentioned tropical wave will continue to move northward and filter over the region this morning onwards, increasing rain chances. As this influx of moisture from a tropical wave moves over the islands under an east-southeast flow, high-end normal (1.9 inches) to above-normal (2.0 inches) PWAT values will reach the region. Available moisture will extend into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Concurrently, 500 mb temperatures are expected to drop to more seasonal levels over the weekend, creating conditions favorable for t-storm development. Showers will continue to be steered towards windward sectors during the period. A limited to elevated flooding risk remains forecast for the region, particularly during afternoon convective showers and t-storms. The areas most susceptible to these impacts include the interior and west-northwestern sections of Puerto Rico, along with potentially downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Similar conditions are forecast tomorrow, albeit with the upper level low now west of Puerto Rico and the wave axis moving away from the region. However, above-normal moisture continues to filter over the islands under east-southeast flow as a surface high over the Atlantic persists. A limited to elevated flooding threat will persist over interior and west-northwestern Puerto Rico, and possibly downwind of El Yunque and the local islands. Today through tomorrow evening, the islands will see a continuous influx of low Saharan Dust concentrations. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is then projected to arrive from the east tomorrow night, elevating Saharan Dust to moderate, or potentially high, concentrations. Expected to last through Monday and into the long-term period, these higher concentrations will cause hazy skies, lower visibilities, and deteriorated air quality. This drier air will result in below normal to normal PWAT values overnight Sunday into Monday while the upper low moves westward and away from the islands. This would leave Monday as the driest day of the short term forecast, nevertheless diurnal heating, local effects and sea breeze convergence will result in afternoon convection over interior to west-northwest PR as east-southeasterly steering flow persists. Breezy conditions are also possible at coastal areas during the period. With increasing moisture and east-southeasterly flow, heat risks will persist during the short term forecast period, with heat indices reaching and surpassing the low 100s during the late mornings to afternoons over urban and lower elevation sectors of the islands, with some relief possible with the above mentioned showers. Heat Advisories could be issued for each late morning to late afternoon; continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Excessive heat will remain the primary hazard, with significant heat risk levels possible throughout the long-term period. Saharan dust should also linger into midweek, maintaining hazy skies and reduced air quality. A tropical wave is expected to move across the region early to midweek, increasing shower and isolated thunderstorm activity, with the greatest potential currently anticipated on Wednesday. Despite generally drier conditions during the remainder of the period, diurnal heating and local effects should support afternoon convection each day. Widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time, although locally heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water on roads and in poorly drained areas. Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Mainly VFR conditions through the period. A tropical wave will continue to result in passing SHRA over the region, with a chance of -TSRA. After 01/13-14Z, E-ESE winds increase to 10 to 18 kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations, before becoming light with land breezes after 01/23Z. After 01/17Z, SHRA/-TSRA can develop over interior to western PR and downwind of the local islands and El Yunque, affecting TJBQ/TJSJ. This can result in brief MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 A tropical wave moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms across portions of the regional waters and passages today. Meanwhile, a surface high pressure extending from the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trades through next week. Occasional seas up to 6 feet are expected today across the offshore Atlantic and Caribbean waters, and the Anegada and Mona Passages. Seas and winds are expected to remain below small craft advisory criteria through next week. However, locally stronger winds due to the sea breeze are expected each afternoon across the Atlantic and Caribbean coastal waters of Puerto Rico. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Wind-driven waves will support a moderate risk of rip currents across the northwest to southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and St. Croix today. A low risk is expected across the western to southern beaches of PR, and most beaches of St. Thomas and St. John through the weekend. Nevertheless, beachgoers should be aware that life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins, jetties, reefs, and piers even when the risk is low. By Tuesday and Wednesday, the risk will become low across all beaches of the islands. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM AST Sat Aug 1 2026 Minimum relative humidity values should remain near or above critical thresholds today. Influx of moisture during the weekend could aid in improving overall fire weather conditions. However, critically dry fuels persist across southern Puerto Rico and St. Croix, with Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) values remaining well above the critical threshold. East to east-southeast winds are expected to remain above or near the threshold values today, slightly which could promote the rapid spread of any fire that develops. Residents and visitors should avoid outdoor burning and exercise caution with activities that could generate sparks or open flames, especially across areas with critically dry vegetation. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274025 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Numerous TStorms this Weekend through Early Next Week. Strong Storm Potential Each Afternoon and Evening. Daily Rounds of Heavy Downpours May Cause Localized Flooding - Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches on Sunday && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights For Tonight: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly for I-75 corridor The weak frontal boundary currently just north of the Altamaha river will gradually lift northward today as a warm front ahead of a stronger cold front moving into the SE US. WSW flow strengthens this morning advecting in a more tropical airmass with PWATs of 2+ inches. This will ignite nocturnal convection over Apalachee Bay and the NE Gulf which will shift onshore during the predawn hours progressing into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by sunrise. Convection then increases through the day and spreads ENE across NE FL and SE GA later this afternoon into evening. A cluster of upper level disturbances move in from the NW this afternoon and linger over the area tonight allowing for activity to continue well into the night and potentially into Sunday morning. With anomalously high PWATs, ample instability and support from the approaching upper impulses, numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce localized flash flooding with a few thunderstorms producing gusty winds of 40-55 mph. WPC has highlighted the I-75 corridor in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the rest of the area for today. Highs will be slightly lower than yesterday in the upper 80s along the I-75 corridor to the low 90s elsewhere. Overnight lows remain in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Rounds of Showers and Thunderstorms, Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible - Locally Heavy rainfall potential into Monday Sunday, the trough will move towards the southern Appalachians into Sunday night, becoming elongated north to south as Atlantic ridge begins to build westward towards the Atlantic waters off the southeast US coast. This will slow the surface front across the deep south just northwest of our area. The squeeze between the two mid to upper level features will yield increasing low level SW flow and tap higher moisture levels into the area with PWATs surging to near daily records of 2.20-2.40 inches. The high moisture, lift and instability ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms focused over the western half of inland NE FL shifting north and eastward into SE GA and the coast through the afternoon hours. Isolated strong to severe storms will develop where storm outflows and cell mergers interact. Widespread totals Sunday of 1 to 3 inches of rain will fall west of I-75 with less rainfall towards the coast, but locally heavier rainfall amounts will be possible with any slow moving or training cells (successive storms moving over the same area) which could lead to flooding in low lying and urban locations. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk over the Suwannee Valley of NE FL and a Marginal risk to the the rest of NE FL and SE GA. Breezy SW winds 10-15 mph will prevail Sunday with gusts to 20- 25 mph ahead of storms while more intense storms could produce gusts 40-60 mph. Sunday`s highs will be below normal due to mostly cloudy skies showers and storms, only reaching the mid to upper 80s inland to near 90 at the coast and I-95. Lows will be in the lower 70s inland and the mid 70s along the coast. Monday, the shortwave trough to the north will begin to become a closed, cut off trough across the southern Appalachian mountains While Atlantic high pressure ridging aloft builds into the Bahamas. Breezy south to southwest winds will once again prevail 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Shortwave energy from the trough and convergence along the Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes will lead to numerous to widespread thunderstorms in the afternoon. Isolated strong to severe storms Highs will be similar Monday in the upper 80s for NE FL and near 90 across SE GA and the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Decreasing Coverage of Thunderstorms by Midweek Tuesday, the closed mid to upper level trough will slowly lift away to the NNE as Atlantic ridging moves across the south and central FL peninsula. This will create a more typical Seabreeze regime of afternoon thunderstorms from Seabreeze interactions with scattered to numerous storms. The SW flow will decrease with Seabreezes merging near US-17 in the afternoon with southeast winds behind the Atlantic seabreeze. Wednesday into Thursday, Atlantic high pressure surface ridge axis will lift into SE GA with flow prevailing from the southeast and favoring a more inland progressing Atlantic seabreeze with scattered afternoon thunderstorms with Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes merging between highway 301 and I-75. Friday, the ridge axis will lift north of the area with easterly flow prevailing across the region and scattered T`storms developing well inland near I-75 Temperatures will begin with highs a little below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, then inland highs will be above normal Wednesday into Friday with near normal coastal highs in the upper 80s to low 80s due to the onshore southeast to easterly flow. Lows will remain near normal with lows trending above normal in the low 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast with coastal lows warming to the upper 70s by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Showers and storms linger over the Duval TAF sites for the next hour before dissipating. Light generally southwesterly winds continue in the early morning hours then increase to around 10 kts by 18Z. Southerly winds develop at the coastal TAF sites after 16Z with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Waves of showers and storms will move in from the west-southwest beginning at GNV around 15Z then spreading to the rest of the TAF sites between 17-23Z. Have TEMPOs for stronger storms capable of gusty winds and lower VSBYs due to heavy rainfall. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary over the Georgia waters today, while high pressure remains situated over the southeastern Gulf. This weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow, with the afternoon sea breeze shifting winds to southerly in the afternoon and then back to southwesterly overnight. Coverage of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase this weekend and early next week as the frontal boundary over the Georgia waters lifts northward as a warm front ahead of another cold front that will be entering the southeastern states. Southwesterly winds will strengthen ahead of this front beginning Sunday morning, with Caution level wind speeds likely and periods of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible through early Monday. Strong storms will be possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds this weekend through Monday will likely yield a low to low-end moderate risk at area beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Weekend An active pattern will persists today the frontal boundary remains nearly stationary across Southeast Georgia. Southwesterly winds will become breezy 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph across NE FL with winds a bit less over SE GA 8-12 mph, becoming southeasterly at the coast behind the afternoon Atlantic seabreeze 10-15 mph gusting to 20 mph. A wave of energy aloft and lift along the front and seabreezes will create Numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. The front will lift away as another front approaches from the northwest Sunday and then stall Monday just northwest of the area with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day and breezy southwest winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches west of I-75 and 1-2 inches towards the coast with locally heavier totals possible. Dispersions will be in the good range through the weekend as surface and transport winds increase slightly by Sunday while clouds increase and limit mixing heights. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into the weekend with gusty winds up to 40-60 mph in thunderstorms. In addition, outflows from distant thunderstorms may also produce gusty and erratic winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 73 89 73 / 90 60 80 60 SSI 90 76 91 75 / 90 50 80 40 JAX 92 74 89 73 / 70 30 80 30 SGJ 91 74 88 74 / 70 30 70 30 GNV 90 73 85 72 / 70 70 80 60 OCF 89 73 85 73 / 70 50 80 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ |
| #1274024 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 308 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Decreased rain chances a bit Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Seasonable and mostly dry through Saturday. 2) Warm front/coastal trough moves through Sunday morning, with above average rain chances Sunday into midweek. Marine: SCA conditions likely to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1..High pressure has shifted offshore, with southerly outherly onshore flow beginning in earnest today. Atmospheric profile to gradually moisten today, although we should still be too dry aloft for any convection to form along the sea breeze. While rain chances are still below 15% today, there should be more cloud cover along and ahead of the sea breeze coinciding with peak heating. Otherwise seasonable temps forecast today as highs reach the upper 80s to near 90s inland, and mid 80s along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...ENC once again enters into a period of unsettled weather starting on Sunday. An upper trough will be deepening over the Ohio Valley Sun morning as it moves towards the Eastern Seaboard, while at the surface an associated closed low is expected to traverse the Great Lakes region. As these features move east, they will encounter the Bermuda high which is expected to stall this upper trough, surface low, and its associated fronts before they reach the Eastern Seaboard. While the upper trough stalls, embedded shortwaves rounding the base of the trough are forecast to advect into the Carolinas Sun through at least Mon/Tue. These features, in addition to the sea breeze each afternoon/evening, will be the main forcing present for a notable increase in precip chances. There will be two areas of focus for shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday. The first will be Sun morning along and behind a N`ward moving warm front/coastal trough with much of the activity occuring near and east of Hwy 17. We should still be too dry aloft inland as the boundary moves through, so thunder chances remain low inland Sunday morning. Proximity to the gulf stream could allow isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to reach coastal communities south of Oregon Inlet. The second will be in the afternoon/evening with shower and thunderstorm activity coming in from the west associated with the stalled upper trough. Cloud cover will play a big role in how high instability can truly get, but with the dewpoints rising there should be enough instability entering the region for 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE Sunday. While shear is not too impressive with the unidirectional SE flow, the combination of long, skinny CAPEs, PWATs over 2", and slow storm motions could result in heavy rainfall rates and wet microbursts where storms develop. The best coverage is expected to be to our west closer to I-95, with more isolated to scattered coverage hinted at by CAMs along our coastal plain. As a result, have trended down a tad with PoPs Sunday PM with this update. Further reductions to PoPs may be necessitated with future updates if this trend holds. Monday the trough is still stalled to our west and gradually weakens. This reduces the potential for height falls over the region despite the trough creeping a bit closer. Still, we should see some weak embedded shortwaves moving through aloft. Slightly better forcing, paired with another day of long skinny CAPEs and PWATs north of 2" brings higher precip chances compared to Sunday with heavy rainfall rates and a low end wet microburst threat and slow storm motion vectors. All this brings flash flooding concerns to mind, especially with how much rain has been observed in many locations in the past 1-2 weeks. We are currently in a Marginal (level 1/5) Excessive Rain Outlook for Sunday. What prevents it from being higher is likely the uncertainty on instability with antecedent cloud cover and the lack of substantial ground-level forcing. With high temps forecast to only be in the low to mid 80s Monday, the sea breeze may be weak in nature. Beyond Monday, the trough/low is still expected to linger to our west until eventually it gets picked up and shifted to our north by another trough moving through the Great Lakes region. As a result, daily elevated precip chances continue through mid-week with a low end risk for flash flooding. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mainly diurnal Cu through peak heating. Another morning with calm winds and clear skies allowing for good radiational cooling but HREF and REFS probs for vsbys less than 5SM continue to show less than 15 percent during the pre-dawn hours. Given there hasn`t been fog the past couple of nights it likely will not materialize. S to SW winds will be a bit stronger this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt possible. Periods of MVFR may develop early Sunday morning as a warm front/coastal trough moves through the region. Coastal regions could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday morning along and behind the coastal trough. Outlook (Sunday through Wednesday):Periods of sub-VFR may develop Sun into early next week as ENC enters into a more unsettled period of weather with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with a stalled upper trough off to the west. Precip chances and thus the threat for sub- VFR conditions look to decrease beyond Wed. && .MARINE... Benign boating conditions continue across our waters today as latest obs show widespread southerly 5-10 kt winds and 2-3 ft seas. Winds strengthen to 10-20 knots through tonight, shifting from SE`rly this evening to S`rly early Sunday morning behind a coastal trough/warm front. As wind increas, seas build to 3-4 ft tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely starting early Sunday morning along and behind the front. Outlook (Sunday through Wed): Southerly winds will strengthen Sunday to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts ahead of an approaching front. Seas will also respond building closer to 4-7 ft across the coastal waters bringing an increasing chance of SCA conditions to much of our waters Sun into Mon. In addition to this, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible as well starting Sun. Winds/Seas begin to ease later Mon night into Tue with weak high pressure building overhead and aforementioned front dissipating to the west. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274023 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 243 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Bay for this afternoon into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 243 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity today ahead of an unsettled period. Low pressure is slowly drifting off the Northeast coast, with a weak surface high across the local area this morning. Generally light southerly winds and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are being observed across the area. Satellite imagery is highlighting upper-level cirrus spreading across the East Coast that is emanating off of another low pressure system centered across Illinois. This trough will be one of the focal points for weather in the coming days, but dry conditions will continue today. Upper heights are forecast to build a bit as the ridge and aforementioned surface high nudge offshore and the low-level flow southerly flow begins to increase. Highs near 90F with afternoon dew points rising into the mid-upper 60s will make for a slightly more humid, warmer day than we have seen the past few days. KEY MESSAGE 2....A more typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled by Sunday will continue into early next week as a slow moving upper-level trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1- 1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the afternoon (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day, but the severe threat should remain relatively low with these storms. Temperatures dip down slightly below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. Though not quite as unsettled as the first half of the week, the latter half of the week will see isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. With the decreased coverage forecast, temperatures will return to near to slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SW winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SW flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274022 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 248 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All Key Messages and sections were changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. - 2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: There is risk for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding across Southeast Georgia into the western South Carolina Lowcountry this afternoon and evening. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible. The upper flow will become increasingly cyclonic through the day as a powerful upper low digging across Mid-Mississippi Valley propagates into the western Ohio Valley by tonight. At the surface, a weak warm front extending across parts of the Lowcountry into the Midlands will meander north through the day placing all of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia solidly within the warm sector of the maturing cyclone associated with the upper low. A few morning showers could brush parts of the lower South Carolina coast through daybreak, but the better chances or showers/tstms will hold off until later this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze moves inland and potent shortwave energy approaches from the northwest. Forcing with this feature coupled with modest instability will support scattered to numerous showers/tstms by mid-late afternoon with activity likely concentrating across much of Southeast Georgia into the far western South Carolina Lowcountry by early evening. PWATs are forecast to surge to 2.35-2.50" which will be near daily maximums for 1 August per SPC sounding climatology. While 850-200 hPa flow will remain out of the southwest at around 10 kt suggest storm motions should remain somewhat progressive, mesoscale boundary collisions will likely augment the steering environment somewhat with the potential for training and/or back-building increasing with time as CAPE profiles elongate and narrow (a classic heavy rain signature). Given the near record net moisture values, impressive hourly rainfall rates will likely occur with the 01/00z HREF and REFS both suggesting localized amounts in excess of 3-4"/3-hr are possible (neighborhood probabilities for >3" running 30-50%), mainly across interior portions of Southeast Georgia into Allendale and Hampton Counties in Southeast South Carolina. This could lead to pocket of flash flooding even with fairly high 1-hr and 3-hr flash flood guidance values in place. The need for a Flood Watch for the above mention areas was considered, but the decision was made to hold off given the degree of flash flooding should remain fairly isolated and likely limited to the base-level category. Coordinated with WPC to introduce a slight risk across the far interior areas through tonight for the Day 1 WFO excessive rainfall guidance. Right now, the corridor of heaviest rains look to remain west of both the Charleston and Savannah Metro areas. In addition to the risk for heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, a strong to marginally severe tstm could occur just about anywhere this afternoon and evening where updrafts can become enhanced, most likely near mesoscale boundary collisions. Convection should wane during the evening hours, but there are signals that a secondary wave could spread north through the region early Sunday morning and more shortwave energy approaches and interacts with a continued very moist and unstable atmosphere. KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and/or gusty winds Sunday through early next week. As a mid-level trough settles over the eastern CONUS Sunday, a cold front will inch toward the forecast area Sunday into Monday before stalling. This pattern, combined with a very moist airmass, will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day through early next week. Forecast soundings indicate PWAT values increasing to around 2.2 inches by Sunday morning and remaining between 2.2 and 2.4 inches through Monday and possibly Tuesday. These conditions will favor efficient rainfall production and high rainfall rates, increasing the potential for localized flooding. While most flooding impacts should remain minor, repeated heavy downpours or training convection over urban areas such as the Charleston and Savannah metro areas could warrant Flood Advisories or Flash Flood Warnings. With regards to the severe potential, the primary limiting factor will be modest instability, with forecast soundings suggesting SBCAPE peaking near 1500 J/kg as widespread cloud cover limits diurnal heating. Despite this, the combination of deep moisture and forcing aloft as lobes of vorticity rotate around the upper trough, should support at least scattered thunderstorms, with the strongest cells capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. Sunday appears to have the greatest threat for isolated strong to severe storms due to the proximity of the approaching front providing an additional source of forcing, but also increasing shear values to around 15 kt. This could could allow some storms to become somewhat organized, especially inland. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 01/06z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: MVFR cigs have briefly impacted both terminals over the past few hours. These should remain fairly brief and transient through daybreak, so prevailing VFR was maintained. A few showers could get close to KJZI through 12z. VCSH was introduced to account for this. VFR should prevail for the remainder of the 06z TAF period. The risk for showers/tstms should generally remain west of both terminals this afternoon/evening, but could get close enough to justify a PROB30 at KCHS from roughly 19-21z until the sea breeze can push farther to the west. KSAV: VFR this morning with an increasing risk for tstm impacts by mid-afternoon. A TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA were introduced 21-00z. Conditions could certainly end up lower to IFR or even LIFR levels at times, but pinning that down this far out is nearly impossible. Conditions were limited to MVFR for now. In addition, gusty winds could accompany the tstms, but to what degree is uncertain. Further refinements will mostly certainly be made as the day progress and short term trends become more apparent. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periodic flight restrictions are expected in showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Locally heavy rainfall may produce brief IFR or lower visibility restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: There are no concerns. South to southeast winds this morning will persist today, then become more south to southwest tonight. Winds will remain 15 kt or less today, then increase to 15 kt to 15-20 kt tonight as nocturnal surging takes hold. Seas 1-3 ft today will build to 2-4 ft tonight. Sunday through Thursday: The pressure gradient will strengthen Sunday as broad low pressure develops inland with an approaching front and high pressure remaining in the Atlantic. Southwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon, with frequent gusts between 25 and 30 kt expected across the local waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore marine zones out to 20 nm and the outer Georgia waters from 20-60 nm, as well as the Charleston Harbor. Conditions should gradually improve Monday night, with benign wind and sea conditions expected for Tuesday through the rest of the period. Rip Currents: Gusty southwest winds combined with a 7 to 8 second swell will support an elevated rip current risk on Sunday. A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents has been posted for the South Carolina beaches, and a similar risk may eventually be needed along the southeast Georgia coast. && .CLIMATE... Record High Minimum Temperatures: August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020 August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886 August 5: KCHS: 79/1980 KCXM: 82/1991 KSAV: 80/1883 August 6: KCHS: 79/1991 KCXM: 82/2006 KSAV: 80/1899 August 7: KCHS: 79/2007 KCXM: 83/2007 KSAV: 80/1879 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to noon EDT Monday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1274021 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 250 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Peak heat index values will range between 105 and 110 across most areas this afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 11 AM through 6 PM for Broward and Miami Dade County. - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm will develop this afternoon with the highest chances occurring over the Lake region as well as the east coast metro areas. - High rainfall rates will be possible with the stronger storms creating the potential for localized flooding especially across the east coast metro areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A rather deep mid level trough/closed low complex over the Midwest will slowly dig towards the Deep South as today progresses. The mid level low will slowly try to open up heading into Sunday as it slowly pushes southeastward, however, deep troughing will still extend into the Southeast and into the northern Gulf during this time frame. As the main trough axis will remain off to the north of the region, a weak vort max will slowly pass through the Florida Panhandle today before moving across the rest of Northern Florida tonight into Sunday. At the surface, a weakening frontal boundary will remain stalled out well off to the north over the Southeast today and this front will eventually wash out heading into tonight. Another frontal boundary will slowly push through the Southeast and towards the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday. South Florida will remain well to the south of the boundary, and therefore, synoptic surface winds will generally remain south to southwesterly both today and Sunday. While a pocket of drier air in the lower to mid levels of the atmospheric column, (between 850 and 550mb), will try to hold on through most of today, the latest forecast model soundings show that this layer will give way to deeper moisture advection especially heading into this afternoon through Sunday. With increasing moisture combined with south to southwesterly wind flow, the east coast sea breeze will remain pinned over the metro areas this afternoon and then again on Sunday. With a rather light steering flow in place, showers and thunderstorms will be relatively slow moving. This, combined with the abundance of moisture pushing into the region will result in the potential for localized flooding especially over the east coast metro areas for both this afternoon and Sunday afternoon as well. Some of the thunderstorm activity will have the potential to become strong and contain gusty winds each afternoon especially over the Lake Region and portions of the east coast metro areas where instability will be maximized during peak diurnal heating. Heat will be a concern throughout the weekend as high temperatures rise into the lower to mid 90s across a good portion of South Florida. Peak heat index values will generally range between 105 and 110 across most of the region this afternoon and then once again on Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 The beginning of the week will feature the rather deep mid level trough still remaining over the Southeast as well as the northern Gulf on Monday. However, the latest global and ensemble guidance suite does show mid level ridging in the western Atlantic trying to push back over the region starting later on Monday and then even more so heading into Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, what is left of the second frontal boundary stalled out over Northern Florida as well as the Northern Gulf on Monday will gradually wash out heading into Tuesday. The western periphery of surface high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will then gradually shift back over the Florida Peninsula for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will create a wind shift allowing for winds to become south southeasterly as Monday progresses, and then slowly becoming easterly moving towards the middle of the week. With the influx of moisture continuing especially through monday, combined with the light south to southwest steering flow in place, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop as the sea breezes push inland. The east coast sea breeze will still remain relatively pinned for one more day on Monday, allowing for the highest chances of convection to remain over the interior as well as the east coast metro areas. With PWAT values generally looking to remain at 2.0 inches or higher during this time frame, heavy downpours and slow moving thunderstorms could continue the potential for localized flooding on Monday. While Tuesday and Wednesday will feature additional shower and thunderstorm development, the highest chances will shift and remain over the interior and southwest Florida each afternoon and evening during this time frame. High temperatures each day through the middle of the week will continue to rise into the lower 90s across most of South Florida. Peak heat index values will still create a heat concern during this time frame as they will range between 105 and 110 each afternoon. Easterly winds remain firmly in place heading into the second half of the week, however, uncertainty rises in the forecast during this time frame as some of the global and ensemble guidance is hinting at the potential for another weak TUTT to make a close pass near the region. This could increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame and it will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With easterly wind flow remaining in place, the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame will continue to be focused over the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Light and variable winds will gradually increase out of the SSW after 15z. These winds will become SSE early this afternoon across the east coast terminals as the sea breeze tries to push inland. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop near the east coast terminals after 18z. Periods of MVFR or IFR will be possible along with gusty and erratic winds in and around thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will continue across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds will gradually shift and become more southeasterly as the early portion of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 93 79 92 80 / 40 30 40 10 West Kendall 93 76 92 77 / 30 20 40 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 93 80 / 40 30 40 20 Homestead 93 79 92 80 / 30 20 40 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 79 91 80 / 50 30 40 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 91 80 / 50 30 50 20 Pembroke Pines 94 80 92 81 / 40 30 40 20 West Palm Beach 93 77 92 78 / 70 30 60 30 Boca Raton 92 79 91 79 / 60 30 50 30 Naples 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 40 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ071>074-172>174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274019 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Overall, the trend again for another day is rather on the dry side when compared to the forecast a couple of days ago. Upstream we are watching a fairly robust upper level trough dig across the Mid MS River Valley, which will allow for an ULL to drop southward into the Tennessee River Valley through the weekend and into early next week. Up stream we continue to watch a front over the Red River Valley, which should settle across the region later tonight. Although today looks a bit lackluster in terms of QPF, a nonzero convective chance will be there with the highest POPs residing over the MS Gulf Coast. Rain chances do increase overnight as the front begins to set up along the coast. However, given this isn`t the best opportunity over land, POPs are a bit more modest than others during the afternoon hours. That said, with the diurnal cycle, there will be some night time showers and storms over the Gulf waters. Drier air begins to filter southward behind the front to start the new workweek. This will help limit "feels like" temperatures and no heat headlines look to be needed through the short term period. Sadly, this will keep any precip chances fairly limited and mostly offshore through the period. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 By Tuesday evening, a longwave trough will be over much of Canada, while the upper ridge will be centered near Las Vegas with an upper trough from the upper Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi-Alabama coast. At the surface, a weak front may be close to Interstate 20, while high pressure is over much of the Gulf. Precipitable water values Tuesday evening will be around the 25th percentile (1.6 inches), and with low level flow becoming southerly, but very weak, those moisture levels won`t really start to increase until the end of the week. By Friday, moisture will be around 2 inches, which is closer to the 75th percentile. Probably will not be much more than isolated convection during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday, firing off along lake and sea breeze boundaries. Areal coverage will probably increase a little bit on Friday, but still not much more than 30 to 40 percent at best. High temperatures are expected to top out in the middle 90s for the back half of next week, with heat index values in the 105 to 110 range. (RW) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots through the weekend across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the workweek, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. (Frye) && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274020 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this morning through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms through the weekend will be the main focus for this term. An upper level trough will be extending southward with a cold front heading towards the SE U.S. bringing a high chance for rain and thunderstorms that could produce totals of several inches. The setup is conducive for the coastal regions to receive the most rainfall as we will have southwest flow bringing in moisture from the Gulf with the frontal boundary settling across the Tri-State region. Forecast PWATs will range from 2.2-2.5", indicating the potential for heavy rainfall. Fortunately, environmental factors are not showing an increased risk for any severe weather however, storms could still produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Guidance starts with showers and thunderstorms developing along the Emerald Coast this morning prior to daybreak. These storms may hug along the coastal region for several hours, leading to the potential of nuisance and/or flash flooding. As the day progresses, the showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread eastwards and inland. The overall system, being pushed eastward by the front and upper-level trough will continue through Monday bringing several rounds of rain to the region. The WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday) and covers the Panhandle/Big Bend region through Sunday and hence a Flood Watch has been issued for the coastal communities of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through Monday afternoon for the potential of receiving 3-6 inches of rain with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches possible through Monday. More info is discussed in the Hydrology section. Temperatures for the Short term will be in the mid to upper 80s for the afternoon highs thanks to the abundant cloud cover and rain. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 70s, and humid. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 For the start of the Long Term, the upper level trough will begin to lift and shift eastward, lowering our rain/thunderstorm chances as we head into mid-week. Temperatures will begin to climb back into the mid and upper 90s by the end of the term and overnight lows in the mid-70s with daily PoPs gradually decreasing to about 30-40% each afternoon; a more typical summertime pattern. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although convection is on a downward trend currently, development will increase towards dawn through the panhandle and spread north and east with time. Each TAF site has SHRA and TSRA based on high res models in addition to timing out impacts through the day. Winds will generally be from the west outside of storms with a few brief gusts around stronger storms. MVFR or high IFR may also accompany heavier convection. SHowers and storms will be on the decrease in coverage in the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected over the marine zones every day. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will accompany these storms. Outside of storms, westerly/southwesterly winds around Cautionary levels can be expected, with possible Advisory level winds beginning Saturday night into Sunday. Seas will be ranging around 3-5 feet for the weekend. For the start of the work week, winds and seas will begin to relax with seas returning to around 2 feet with winds later lessening to around 10-15 kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Widespread wetting rains this weekend will keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-20 mph through this weekend, then lessening to 5-10 mph for the upcoming work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 226 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 An upper level trough will be sinking southward over the next couple of days, bringing a cold front towards the SE U.S.. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will be plentiful with the assistance of southwesterly flow from the Gulf, increasing PWATs to range from 2.2-2.5" across the region this weekend into the start of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will be most concentrated along the coastal regions in the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. 3-6 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts of up to 8-10 inches are possible through Monday. The WPC has highlighted the entire CWA in a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for today (Saturday). On Sunday, the Slight risk is reduced to the Florida state line, with a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for our AL and GA counties. The system begins to move out of the area on Monday with the Big Bend region in a Marginal risk. The potential for flash flooding is is increased in these areas over the next few days, hence a Flood Watch is in effect from early this morning (5 AM EDT / 4 AM CDT) through Monday afternoon. Rivers are in good condition at the moment. However, a few coastal rivers may see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 87 74 86 73 / 90 30 90 70 Panama City 88 79 87 77 / 70 60 90 70 Dothan 89 75 89 72 / 80 50 70 50 Albany 89 73 88 73 / 90 50 90 40 Valdosta 91 73 88 72 / 80 30 80 70 Cross City 88 74 85 73 / 90 80 90 80 Apalachicola 86 78 85 77 / 80 50 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029- 034-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ112-114. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274018 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 130 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Major risk of heat-related impacts today with peak heat indices 110 to 115 degrees across the Coastal Plains and high temperatures in the triple digits over interior locations. - Elevated fire weather conditions expected today through early next week over the western Brush country. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A mid-level ridge will continue to control our weather pattern through early next week resulting in hot and dry conditions for the CWA. However, the aforementioned ridge`s eastern flank will weaken due to a strengthening trough in the Ohio Valley resulting in increased moisture filtering into the area. Model guidance is supportive of this as PWAT values are over 2", with isolated spots approaching 2.2". In addition, vorticity in the mid-levels (500 mb) will support the development of showers and thunderstorms over Central Texas this afternoon. Some guidance hints at a broken line of showers entering our northern counties tonight. However, this line looks to be in its decaying stage by the time it reaches our area so will maintain only 15-20% rain chances. Weak low-lvl convergence and moisture pooling nearly the largely-washed out boundary will maintain low-end rain chances through the day on Sunday before drier air moves in for the upcoming workweek and rain chances return to near zero. Due to the influence of the aforementioned mid-level ridge, hot temperatures will prevail through the first week of August. Areas east of Highway 77 have a high chance of highs exceeding 100F through early next week. Today, heat index values will likely exceed 110F over much of the Coastal Plains (even approaching 115 in spots), and therefore a heat advisory has been issued for that region. Although there should be enough mixing of drier air towards the surface over the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains to keep that region below criteria it will still be quite hot with a largely major (level 3/4) heat risk. This drier air will persist over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through most of the period with minimum RH levels dropping below 30% each afternoon. This, coupled with wind gusts between 10-15 kts will allow for an elevated fire risk into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through a majority of the TAF cycle. Brief MVFR conditions are expected after 09Z through 13Z, mainly for ALI and VCT. CRP site may also see very brief MVFR CIGs. Light winds expected through Saturday morning. Wind speeds expected to be a few knots lower than yesterday, but could still have gusts around 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet through the forecast period. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be on Sunday and even then chances will only be around 20%. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity will continue to support periods of elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through early next week. While winds over the western Brush Country will remain relatively light during the afternoons, ERC values will run between the 60th and 75th percentiles and min RHs will dip below 30% each afternoon through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 97 78 / 0 10 20 0 Victoria 100 78 100 75 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 106 82 103 80 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 102 78 100 76 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 92 81 94 81 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 104 82 103 79 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 100 78 99 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ234-241>247-342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274017 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 222 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. An upper level trough lingers over New England and Atlantic Canada this afternoon, with another trough over the upper Midwest. This places the Mid-Atlantic region in dry NW flow on the leading flank of an upper ridge. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region. Quite pleasant for the end of July with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Partly sunny with SCT afternoon CU. Humidity will likely come up a bit this evening, especially near the coast as the flow becomes onshore. One last dry day (but warmer/more humid) on Saturday as upper heights build a bit as the ridge and surface high nudge offshore and the LLVL flow becomes southerly. Highs near 90F w/ aftn dew pts rising into the mid-upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the aftn (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 220 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay from this afternoon into the early overnight hours. - Another period of SCA conditions is likely Sunday afternoon into Monday ahead of a weakening cold front. Early morning analysis shows high pressure off the Southeast coast with surface low pressure and cold front noted over the Midwest. Winds over the local waters are generally from the S at 5-10 kt. Waves in the bay are around 1 ft with seas 2 ft. The aforementioned Midwest low will become vertically aligned with an upper closed low today, resulting in only slow movement to the east. Guidance suggests that the gradient between this low and high pressure offshore will tighten sufficiently to result in 15-20 kt SW winds over the Ches Bay from this afternoon through the evening hours. Winds in the tidal rivers, Currituck Sound, and offshore zones are expected to stay below SCA thresholds. Winds are expected to relax back into the 10-15 kt range after midnight. Waves and seas briefly build to 2-3 ft during the enhanced SW flow tonight. The surface low and its associated cold front will translate slowly eastward on Sunday, allowing the pressure gradient to steepen again. Additional SCA headlines are likely Sunday night into Monday for the majority of the local waters. Given a longer duration SW flow event, seas will have more time to build into the 3-6 ft range (0-20nm range, highest N). Farther offshore, seas increase to 5-7 ft for a period late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to wash out over inland areas late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon and evening shower and storm chances return Sunday and linger well into next week with locally higher winds/waves/seas likely to accompany the stronger convection. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274015 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 224 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Sunday through Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week A potent shortwave trough currently over the Upper/Mid MS Valley will track east-southeast into the Ohio and Tn Valley through the weekend before slowing down and potentially closing off over the SE US/southern Appalachians early next week. The system is then expected to linger while gradually weakening through midweek, before finally lifting off to the NE late in the work week. Deep southwesterly moisture transport between this slow moving system and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain an axis of anomalously moist air, with PWATs of 2.0- 2.50"(125-1505 of normal), across eastern portions of the Carolinas through much of the period. A northward lifting warm front will provide the initial focus for showers and storms on Sunday, with additional daily rounds of convection Mon-Wed aided by embedded shortwave impulses interacting with seabreeze and upper divergence associated with a jet over the Appalachians. As the trough gradually weakens, convective rain chances should transition to a more typical diurnally driven pattern as anomalous moisture remains in place. This unsettled pattern could provide some much needed drought relief, with widespread rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches expected during the period. Locally higher amounts will be possible where storms repeatedly track over the same area, which could also lead to isolated flooding. Despite widespread cloud cover and generally weak lapse rates, highs in the 80s combined with dew points in the mid to upper 70s should support moderate instability, allowing for an isolated severe threat each day. KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday afternoon and linger through Monday. See marine section below. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon and evening, though a stray afternoon shower or two cannot be ruled out. Strengthening moisture advection ahead of an approaching warm front from the south will support isolated to widely scattered showers Saturday evening into tonight. In addition, increasing low-level moisture may support the development of areas of low stratus near inland TAF sites towards daybreak Sunday. Light SELY winds of 5 to 10 kts will increase slightly by the afternoon, with some gusts up to 15-18 kts possible. Extended Forecast... A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday through at least the middle part of next. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...Southeast winds gradually increase late this afternoon and veer to southerly Saturday night as a stalled front lifts back to the coast. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in breezy south winds with gusts likely to pass SCA criteria Sunday afternoon and likely to continue into Monday. Weak winds will yield benign seas between 1-3 ft through Saturday night. Seas rapidly increase to 4-6 ft as winds increase on Sunday and these continue into Monday before relaxing gradually Monday night and Tuesday. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve to 2-4 ft Tuesday and Wednesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1274014 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) this afternoon. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated to widely scattered showers/ storms later today / this evening, though a morning shower is possible in our northern counties. - Forecast has trended hotter for Sunday and especially Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 As of 12AM CDT, there are few things that catch my eye as I write this AFD. Water vapor imagery is currently telling a story of a flow pattern in flux. The ridge that has dominated Texas weather over the last weak is shifting west, with the center of its ridge axis firmly over W CONUS. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Midwest is diving east to southeast, while its trailing cold front extends all the way down into SE Oklahoma and N Texas. The airmass behind the front is also of interest, featuring decreasing dew points and cooler temperatures. Me thinks the falling dew points are in SE TX`s future....the cooler temps not so much. The HRRR continues to insist on a band of showers that develops over our northern counties early this morning. The showers push southward, fizzling out before reaching the I-10 corridor. Some of the other CAMs suggest the presence of an isolated shower or two. There does appear to be plenty of dry air in the 900-700 MB zone. But ML water vapor imagery suggests there is slightly less ML dry air in our northern zones. So I kept some PoPs in the forecast north of I-10 this morning to give the HRRR a little weight in the forecast. We shall see... This aforementioned front should continue its southward push, reaching our neck of the woods by later today or tonight. There`s still some question regarding the timing of the front. Will the front be able to interact with peak daytime heating? Latest guidance suggest it won`t arrive in SE TX until the evening, when daytime heating is being lost. Therefore, the chance of seeing showers/thunderstorms has decreased but has not been eliminated for later today. A veering wind profile ahead of the front will support a modest WAA regime when the air is already quite hot. Forecast peak heat indices from the I-10 counties to the coast are generally 107-110 degrees, warranting the issuance of a Heat Advisory from 1PM to 7PM CDT in our southern zones. There could be a sweet spot that`s just inland enough to limit Gulf influence but also just coastal enough to limit mixing that manages to reach 111-112F. Sunday may feature some showers and isolated storms near the coast and offshore in the morning. Otherwise, much drier air infiltrates the area in the front`s wake. Mid/upper heights will be at their lowest on Sunday, generally supporting a cooler temperature profile. But drier air and the August sun should boost temperatures into the upper 90s to around 100 (low 90s coast). Inland dew points are expected to be well down into the 60s, which should keep heat indices below advisory criteria. The dry air may not make it to the coast. So if you`re in a coastal county, you may remain in the humid soup. But on Monday, the ridge builds back into the region, warming the temperatures profile. With a similar dry LL regime remaining in place, Monday`s actual temperatures cold get quite hot. Right now, we have high temperatures ~100 degrees across most inland areas. But this is technically a little "cooler" than most of the guidance. If forecast temperatures trend another 2-3 degree higher, then we could be approaching Heat Advisory criteria for actual temperatures (103+). The high heat may linger into Tuesday before temperatures attempt to modify down to normal by mid/late week. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A weak cold front will attempt to move through the terminals Saturday afternoon, bringing rain and storm chances for most terminals. A few -SHRA are possible near KCLL and KUTS around 11Z- 13Z, with the best chances (20 - 35%) in the afternoon. Confidence in SHRA/TSRA for terminals from IAH coastward is low; therefore, have only included PROB30 from mid afternoon through early evening for this forecast package. Light to occasionally moderate WSW winds will prevail Saturday. Overall, expect SCT to BKN mid to high clouds, with FEW/SCT low clouds possible early Saturday. Outside of any TSRA, VFR conditions can be expected through the period. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Southwest winds 10-15 knots should gradually increase to 15-20 knots later today into tonight. For Galveston Bay and our eastern Gulf zones, winds may gust to around 25 knots at times. Small vessels should exercise caution later today into tonight. A frontal boundary approaches the area this evening into tonight, possibly resulting in a few showers and thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning. Westerly winds are expected on Sunday, followed by continued light to moderate south to southwest winds through much of the upcoming week. Winds may become more south-southeast late in the week. Seas should primarily be 2-3 feet, but could build to 4 feet (locally 5ft) Saturday night in our eastern Gulf zones. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 99 77 97 75 / 0 0 40 10 Houston (IAH) 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 94 82 / 0 0 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ200-213-214- 226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274013 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and storms are forecast through the weekend. Storms may form earlier in the day than usual. Frequent lightning and gusty winds to 40-50 mph will be the primary hazards. - Later today, there is a 5-10% chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches in less than 2 hours. This may lead to localized flooding of urban and poorly drained areas. - High pressure expands over Florida early next week. However, continued high moisture and sea breeze interactions should keep storm chances elevated, especially over the interior and Lake Okeechobee region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Early this morning, water vapor imagery reveals a rather complex upper-air pattern across the U.S. for the first day of August. A pair of shortwaves is keeping a broad dip in the jet stream over the Eastern U.S. The stronger of these two features is currently located near the Quad Cities. Exceptionally stout ridging extends from the Caribbean to the Desert Southwest, where 01/00Z RAOBs returned H5 heights of 601 dam at Flagstaff, AZ and 600 dam at El Paso, TX. Locally, H5 heights exceed 590 dam; warm mid-level temperatures are resulting in poor H7-H5 lapse rates, which is rather typical for the time of year. The energy approaching the Mississippi Valley will soon carve out a longwave trough; it will then move little through Sunday. A weak quasi-stationary front should remain well north of Central Florida. Mean southwesterly flow in the boundary layer maintains rich moisture over the state with PWAT values from 100-130% of normal through at least Monday. Amid subtle height falls, weak vorticity maxima are forecast to rotate around the trough west of Florida, providing forcing for occasional convection. By Monday, the Bermuda High will attempt to retrograde over the W Atlantic, promoting height rises over Florida. As ensemble members weaken the trough over the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday, the near-surface ridge axis is likely to trek north of our latitude by midweek, providing light onshore flow off the Atlantic. Confidence trails off late in the work week and toward next weekend. The 31/12Z grand ensemble and fellow AI members initialized an easterly wave over the Canary Islands. The model suite sends this disturbance westward across the Atlantic, perhaps approaching Florida by late Thursday or Friday. PWAT anomalies clearly show an increase in moisture associated with this feature, but we expect further refinements to the forecast as this disturbance is currently 3800 miles to our east. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- This Weekend... Periods of active weather should be expected. Those planning to be outdoors will need to listen for thunder, watch for darkening skies, and find safe shelter when storms threaten! Nocturnal showers and storms extending along the FL Panhandle early this morning suggest a weak disturbance is present. If this is the case, an earlier-than-normal start to showers and storms is on the table for today, perhaps as early as late morning/midday near and northwest of Interstate 4. Relatively weak offshore winds may allow a sea breeze to form and hug the coast. Boundary interactions would support numerous storms near and east of I-95 in the afternoon. Wind gusts to 40-45 mph and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards. There is a 5-10% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 3", especially along the coast. Localized urban flooding is possible where this rainfall occurs over poorly drained areas. Boundary-layer flow increases from Saturday night into Sunday. Additional weak energy approaching N FL is likely to spark overnight showers and storms northwest of our area, and some of this may reach Lake County overnight. This portends another early start to shower and storm chances on Sunday, especially over our northern half. Then, daytime heating will provide an additional spark for storm development over the eastern half of the peninsula. While shear is weak, the enhanced mid-level flow (20-25 kts) will be sufficient for a few stronger storms with wind gusts from 50 to 55 mph. There is a very small chance for a severe gust to around 60 mph. Hot and muggy conditions continue, with highs in the low/mid 90s and heat indices from 100 to 107. Of the two days, today looks slightly hotter. Monday - Tuesday... This still appears to be a transition period for local weather conditions. High pressure will begin to push overhead, weakening background flow just a bit. As that occurs, the sea breeze will begin to move inland each afternoon, with better progression especially by Tuesday. Near- to above-normal moisture values will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50% to 80%) each day. Seasonably hot temperatures will persist as well, outside of the storms. Wednesday - next Saturday... On Wednesday and Thursday, light onshore flow should finally return, giving us more typical summertime conditions. As the sea breeze pushes inland, a few storms may try to form closer to the coast before concentrating over the interior and points westward. By Friday and Saturday, the easterly wave mentioned in the overview may reach the state. Should this happen, it would provide increased moisture and an uptick in shower/storm opportunities late in the week. While a few deterministic runs have recently shown tropical development with this feature, the GEFS and EPS ensembles are generally unimpressed and favor an open wave/trough as it passes into the W Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is not expecting tropical cyclone formation over the next 7 days. Continued hot and muggy with highs near normal in the low/mid 90s. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 High pressure remains situated south of the local Atlantic this weekend. A nearly-stationary front will stay to the north. Weak to moderate offshore flow persists, but as the sea breeze attempts to form, winds may turn southeasterly in the afternoon near the coast, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Scattered to numerous offshore-moving storms remain the primary hazard for boaters this weekend. Winds freshen some on Sunday, especially in the Gulf Stream. Next week, high pressure will lift slowly northward, with onshore breezes returning by midweek. SW to S winds up to 12 kt today, increasing to 12-18 kt on Sunday. Winds slowly turn out of the SE early next week, up to 12 kt. Seas of 1-2 ft nearshore, except locally 3 ft off of Volusia County on Sunday. Seas reach 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream north of Cape Canaveral on Sunday and early Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 152 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Mainly quiet through sunrise but isold pop-up SHRA may approach LEE. W/SW flow will continue Sat but slightly weaker than Fri and this may allow the east coast sea breeze to more fully form but inland progress will be slow as it fights the offshore flow. Should see another early start to SHRA/TSRA Sat morning over western FL, spreading east. Have inserted TEMPOs starting at LEE (17Z), then MCO/SFB/DAB at 18Z but initiation could be a bit sooner. With a better chance of a sea breeze south of the Cape, also added TEMPO TS conds for MLB-SUA starting at 19Z-20Z. Gusty winds around 35 knots will accompany the stronger storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 91 75 88 74 / 80 20 80 20 MCO 92 75 89 75 / 60 30 70 10 MLB 91 75 90 75 / 70 20 60 10 VRB 91 73 91 74 / 70 30 60 10 LEE 89 75 86 75 / 70 50 80 30 SFB 92 76 89 75 / 80 30 70 10 ORL 92 76 89 75 / 70 30 70 10 FPR 91 73 90 74 / 60 30 70 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1274012 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:57 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Introduced a slight chance of showers/t-storms this afternoon though most will stay dry. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t-storms. - A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. - Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry Saturday with a mix of clouds and sun, but there remains a chance for some widely scattered showers or t- storms. A warmer airmass remains overhead thanks to brief mid level ridging. This will continue to deliver highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. The ridge axis crosses SNE this morning then begins to break down slowly over the next 24-36 hours. For this reason, despite the surface high pressure nearby, introduced a slight chance of rain showers or a thunderstorm this afternoon, mainly over the interior. That being said, the forecast for a mostly dry day persists, with just some widely scattered showers or thunderstorms given a few 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Any convection that does fire up has the potential to induce a quick downpour given PWATs still over 1". For most locations we`ll see a mix of sun and diurnal low level clouds. High clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day ahead of the approaching system. KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings the return of heavy rain and gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. The mid level ridge continues to break down on Sunday as an anomolous mid-level low digs into the Ohio Valley inducing a deepening surface low which itself very slowly tracks northeast. This wave moves into New England by Monday, accompanied by and preceded by an anomalous subtropical moisture plume with PWATS over 2" (2+SD above normal). Isentropically forced rain arrives by late Sunday evening (west) or Sunday night (east) as warm advection takes hold. The heaviest rainfall rates likely occur on Monday as the cold front advances at the surface. This, combined with forcing for ascent from a 35-45kt LLJ and placement under the RRQ of a 120kt 300mb jet will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall across SNE. Still too soon to say where the heaviest amounts will be or how much, but ensemble guidance is not excited about potential for 2+ inches through Tuesday morning despite some deterministic guidance suggesting it. This will come into focus as we get into range of more high resolution guidance. The previously mentioned LLJ will bring gusty winds on Monday, especially over the Cape/islands and over the waters. KEY MESSAGE 3...Periodic rain chances will be with us for much of next week. Low confidence forecast when it comes to how much, if any, of a break we see in wet weather between the exiting shortwave Monday night/early Tuesday and the next. That being said, no sprawling or persistent high pressure ridge is in the cards so periodic rain chances likely persist. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z: High confidence overall, low on fog coverage. VFR at most terminals, but patchy fog will increase in coverage before dissipating by 13z. Best chance at BDL, BED and ORH. SW winds around 5 kt, becoming light/calm overnight. Saturday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Sunday. Light SW tonight then pick up to around 10-15 kt this afternoon and to 15-20 kt tonight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1274011 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 149 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs. No significant forecast changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. 2) A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week, with near average temperatures and increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry weather, slightly below average temperatures, and lower humidity to end the week and start the weekend. An upper level trough lingers over New England and Atlantic Canada this afternoon, with another trough over the upper Midwest. This places the Mid-Atlantic region in dry NW flow on the leading flank of an upper ridge. At the surface, weak high pressure is centered over the region. Quite pleasant for the end of July with temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Partly sunny with SCT afternoon CU. Humidity will likely come up a bit this evening, especially near the coast as the flow becomes onshore. One last dry day (but warmer/more humid) on Saturday as upper heights build a bit as the ridge and surface high nudge offshore and the LLVL flow becomes southerly. Highs near 90F w/ aftn dew pts rising into the mid-upper 60s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A typical summertime pattern returns by late this weekend and early next week with increasing shower/storm chances starting Sunday and continuing through early next week. The pattern becomes more unsettled late in the weekend into early next week as a slow moving UL trough approaches from the west. At the same time, a weak cold front approaches from the north, but will remain north of the local area through Monday (and likely wash out by Tue). With the approaching trough and Bermuda high pressure well offshore, deep-layered S to SW flow will prevail. This will allow rich Gulf moisture to overspread the area on Sunday and remain over us early next week. PWs surge from a comfortable 1-1.4" on Saturday to 2.2-2.4" by late Sunday/Sunday night. Scattered to potentially numerous showers/tstms are expected Sunday. The highest precip chances will initially be across south-central VA during the aftn (as the deep moisture arrives here first). Showers and tstms should gradually spread NE through the evening (though it may very well remain dry near the immediate coast and on the eastern shore). Showers/tstms are likely across the entire area on Monday as a lead shortwave potentially tracks over the area. Monday appears to be the day with the highest convective coverage during the period. The trough dampens a bit from Tuesday/Wednesday, but scattered showers and tstms are still expected during the aftn/evening on both days as weak SW flow aloft continues and deep moisture remains nearby. Given the environment and relatively weak unidirectional flow aloft and tall/skinny CAPE, there will be a threat of localized flash flooding each day. Temps dip down a little below average during the early week period thanks to the cloud cover and multiple rounds of rain. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 150 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this morning. Light, generally SE-S winds of~5 kts or less are being measured, with increasing upper cirrus moving across the area. Upper cirrus will remain across the remain across the area through this evening, with some FEW-SCT lower level clouds developing later this morning. SE-S winds will continue, but are forecast to increase to 6-10 kts. Outlook: VFR/dry Saturday night through Sunday morning as high pressure settles offshore. Shower/tstm chances return on Sunday and Monday as a slow moving upper trough approaches the area, and linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are possible during this time, mainly from early morning stratus, and brief vsby restrictions in heavy rain. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - A brief period of elevated S/SE winds are possible later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night as high pressure settles offshore. - Another brief period of SCA conditions is possible Sunday night into Monday as a trough approaches from the west. Sfc high pressure is still in control over the local area this afternoon, leading to light winds generally 5kt or less. Seas are 2ft or less. High pressure will slide offshore late tonight, resulting in the return of southerly sfc flow by tomorrow morning. The next frontal system that will impact the area will be approaching, leading to an tighter pressure gradient between the low over the midwest and the high pressure offshore. SSE winds increase Sat evening to 15-20kt, then diminish back to 10-15kt late Sat night through early Sunday. A brief SCA will likely be needed for the bay for the Sat evening timeframe. Seas and waves build to 3ft. South winds increase again Sunday night, again to 15-20kt. Winds likely remain elevated through Monday night. During that time, seas will be able to build to 4-5ft. Showers and storms will be possible daily from Sunday through at least early next week, mostly in the afternoons. Severe risk is low at this time, but stronger storms could still have strong wind gusts. Heavy rain is the primary threat. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
| #1274010 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1239 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Hot conditions will persist through next week; Saturday through Monday will be the hottest period; SPSs to Heat Advisories will likely be needed. - High temperatures will generally range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices between 105-115F degrees through next week. - Widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) to Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected through next week. - Breezy southeasterly winds will persist nearly each day through next week with speeds generally between 10-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph. - Mostly Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions over the Laguna Madre will persist nearly each day through next week. - Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected to continue through the middle parts of next week. Driving our weather pattern will be a strong 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge centered over the Desert Southwest. Additionally, an enhanced pressure and thermal gradient will result in breezy southeast winds nearly each day with speeds generally ranging between 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Special Weather Statements (SPSs) to Heat Advisories may be needed each day going forward (especially Thursday through Sunday) as daytime high temperatures will range between the upper 90s to mid 100s with peak heat indices ranging generally between 105- 115F degrees. Heat Risk concerns will continue through the middle parts of next week. Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Favorable aviation conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with limited cloud cover and rain-free skies. Winds will be light at night but breezy during the daytime with stronger gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1028 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the forecast period with mainly moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will likely be needed each day over the Laguna Madre due to persistently breezy southeast winds from an enhanced pressure gradient. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 98 81 100 80 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 103 78 103 77 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 106 81 106 80 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274009 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 146 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for heavy rain and flooding across much of the nature coast today through Sunday. Marginal risk for the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. - Flood Watch in effect for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through 8 PM Monday. - High risk of dangerous rip currents at area beaches through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although some drier mid level air advected over the region during the past 12 to 18 hours, that is quickly eroding and PCPW values will be climbing back AOA 2.25 inches for the weekend and into Monday. An anomalously sharp U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. during the next couple of days with an associated frontal boundary pushing across the southeast U.S. and stalling over the Florida panhandle on Sunday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the front will persist over west central and southwest Florida for the next several days. The best U/L support and large scale lift will occur over the northeast Gulf and nature coast this afternoon through Monday...but the best dynamics looks to be in place late Saturday night and Sunday. The overall bulk of the shower/thunderstorm activity will be north of the Tampa Bay area, however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will still occur across the entire forecast area each day. WPC has indicated that there is a slight risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the nature coast today and Sunday. This is very much supported by the dynamics/deep tropical moisture over the area and expected rounds of showers/thunderstorms with locally heavy rain through Monday. For this reason, a flood watch has been issued for Levy, Citrus, and Hernando counties from noon today through Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall totals will likely occur near the coast, with locally 2 to 4 inches of rain possible each day with isolated higher amounts. The potential exists for rainfall totals today through Monday of 4 to 8 inches across the watch area, with locally higher amounts. Highest pops each day will be across the north with lower pops south...however as mentioned previously, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across all of west central and southwest Florida each day through Monday with localized flooding of urban and low lying poor drainage areas possible each day. The U/L trough will begin to lift away from the forecast area early next week, with surface high pressure over the western Atlantic building across the Florida peninsula. Tuesday will be a transition day as the boundary layer flow becomes re-established from the east to southeast by mid week. This will shift the timing of daily showers/storms to the mid/late afternoon and evening with the highest pops along the coastal counties as the west coast sea breeze boundary fails to progress very far inland each day...before being pushed back to the coast and offshore during the late afternoon/evening hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated to scattered showers will develop over the coastal waters through the remainder of the night and will advect locally onshore. Primarily VFR CIGs will prevail tonight...with SCT LCL BKN over southwest Florida. However, a brief shower may impact all terminals with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs through the early morning hours. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning and afternoon and may impact terminals periodically through the day with LCL MVFR CIGs/IFR VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 West to southwest flow will persist through the weekend and into early next week with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the waters during the overnight hours and pushing onshore around and shortly after sunrise each day. Periods of widespread showers/storms will likely occur over the northern waters through Monday. Cautionary level winds will occur on portions of the waters for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels for the next several days. && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee- Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday evening for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Levy-Inland Citrus- Inland Hernando-Inland Levy. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1274007 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 125 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A Flood Watch is in effect for southern parts of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from late tonight through Monday morning. Widespread rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts of 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A shortwave trough and potential cut-off low will move across the the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes through Saturday. This system will drag a cold front into the Southeast on Saturday. Ahead of this system, PWATs will climb into the 2.2 to 2.5 inch range, signaling the potential for heavy rainfall. Scattered thunderstorms are beginning to develop this afternoon across the area. Some gusty winds and locally heavy downpours are possible with these storms. These storms will fade after sunset across the land areas. Overnight tonight, storms may develop along the land breeze over the nearshore waters, then move inland as the flow becomes more west to southwest ahead of the approaching system. This probably wouldn`t make much inland progress and could stall near the coast, resulting in potential training of thunderstorms into Saturday morning. Hi-res guidance shows the potential for several inches of rain through Saturday morning near the Bay/Gulf County coast as well as the Taylor/Dixie County coast. Given this potential, have gone ahead and issued a Flood Watch starting at 5 AM ET/4 AM CT tonight for areas roughly along and south of a Panama City to Mayo line. More discussion on the overall flood threat can be found in the hydrology section below. The showers and storms will gradually spread inland through the day. Given the deep tropical moisture in place, locally heavy rain is possible across inland areas as well. But the widespread heavy rain threat does not appear as great as communities along the coast. Otherwise, it will remain quite muggy with lows tonight in the 70s. Highs tomorrow will be held to the 80s thanks to the cloud cover and rain. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 This shortwave will slowly move eastward Sunday into Monday before weakening heading into Tuesday. This keeps our area in deep tropical southwesterly flow with PWATs still around 2.2 to 2.5 inches. With the slight eastward shift, the widespread heavy rain threat will start to spread eastward as well into the Florida Big Bend. Similar to Saturday, the best chances for heavy rainfall will be closer to the coast, with the heavy rain being more isolated farther inland. The flood watch continues through Monday afternoon to cover the waves of showers and storms. More discussion on the rain and flood threat can be found in the hydrology section below. By Tuesday, the shortwave and front weaken, and the rain chances will begin a slow decline through the middle of next week back to summertime normals. This also means a return to hot temperatures by the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Although convection is on a downward trend currently, development will increase towards dawn through the panhandle and spread north and east with time. Each TAF site has SHRA and TSRA based on high res models in addition to timing out impacts through the day. Winds will generally be from the west outside of storms with a few brief gusts around stronger storms. MVFR or high IFR may also accompany heavier convection. SHowers and storms will be on the decrease in coverage in the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day, with some storms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Moderate west to southwest flow will continue through Saturday, then increase Saturday night into Sunday to near advisory levels. Seas will build in response to 3 to 5 feet. Winds and seas subside Monday with gentle to moderate southwest flow and decreasing seas into mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A very wet pattern will continue through this weekend across the area, leading to little to no fire concern. Transport winds will remain out of the west to southwest around 10-15 mph each day. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 229 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A very wet pattern with heavy rainfall sets up late tonight and will continue into Monday across the area. The deep tropical moisture and slow movement and possible training of storms could lead to flash flooding over the next few days. The hi-res guidance suite this morning has become more concerning regarding heavy rainfall. The first round of heavy rain and flood potential could begin as early as late tonight mainly for the coastal portions of Bay and Gulf Counties with a lower threat along the Taylor and Dixie County coasts. Some guidance suggests several inches of rain could fall in a short period of time through Saturday morning. The heavy rain threat begins to spread eastward into the Big Bend Saturday night, then becomes more concentrated in the Big Bend Sunday into Monday. For this reason, a Flood Watch has been issued from roughly Panama City to Mayo southward beginning at 5 AM ET/4 AM CT Saturday morning and continues through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals in the watch area will likely be between 3 and 6 inches, but isolated reasonable high-end totals of 8 to 10 inches are possible through Monday. Given that some of these areas have seen 3 to 6 inches in the last 2 days, the ground is becoming more saturated, and some areas are now more prone to flash flooding. Outside of the watch area, most areas will see about 1 to 3 inches of rain through Monday with isolated higher amounts of 4 inches possible. This could lead to more nuisance-type flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas. On the rivers, most of our rivers will be in good shape, but the coastal rivers could see rises depending on where the rain ultimately falls. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 73 83 73 86 / 60 100 70 80 Panama City 77 86 76 88 / 80 90 80 60 Dothan 73 87 72 89 / 70 80 20 30 Albany 73 86 72 88 / 70 90 40 50 Valdosta 72 86 71 86 / 60 100 70 80 Cross City 73 84 72 85 / 80 90 90 90 Apalachicola 77 84 76 85 / 80 90 90 80 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning through Monday afternoon for FLZ012-014-015-027>029-034-112-114-115- 118-127-128-134-426. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274006 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through the weekend for all area beaches. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 A strong shortwave will move into the Ohio Valley today helping a carve out a trough over the eastern states. This will send a cold front southward toward the area late today into tonight. The front will likely stall along the I-65 corridor on Sunday afternoon before being pushed east on Monday. As the trough and front move into the area, the deeper moisture will be pushed eastward today with some drier air slowly moving into northwest area. As a result, the highest rain chances will be mainly east of I-65. As the front moves in overnight into Sunday, scattered pops are expected across the entire area before moving east of I-65 during the late afternoon. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail. however the main threat will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. A drier airmass moves across the entire area Monday into Tuesday with upper level ridging builds back into the area, resulting in mostly dry conditions through midweek. Moisture levels return late in the week with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 Isolated convection will be possible overnight over eastern portions of the area, then isolated to scattered convection is expected on Saturday mainly along/east of the Alabama/Mobile Rivers. MVFR conditions will be possible with the stronger storms, and some patchy overnight fog will be possible over interior areas as well. Light and variable winds overnight become southwesterly 5-10 knots on Saturday, potentially 10-15 knots near the coast. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 136 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Light to moderate westerly winds becomes a moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly flow for Saturday night through Sunday before diminishing on Monday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms become possible through late week, with best chances this weekend. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 91 75 91 72 / 30 40 40 10 Pensacola 89 78 89 76 / 40 60 70 30 Destin 88 78 88 78 / 70 70 90 50 Evergreen 89 72 90 70 / 40 50 40 20 Waynesboro 92 73 92 70 / 30 40 10 0 Camden 88 72 89 70 / 40 50 20 10 Crestview 88 74 89 72 / 70 60 70 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from this afternoon through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274005 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast on Sunday with gusty winds and locally heavy rain being the primary threats. A few storms could become strong to severe resulting in damaging wind gusts and localized flooding. Anyone with outdoor plans for Sunday should stay weather aware and have a plan for where to take shelter if thunderstorms affect their location. - Slightly drier air will move into the area to start next week, leading to temporary relief from the recent heat through the first half of the workweek. By the second half of the week, moisture will return to the area, with heat index values possibly reaching hazardous levels again by Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Hazardous heat will continue to affect the area this afternoon mainly for areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor where afternoon heat index values will generally peak around 110 degrees and a heat advisory remains in effect. Tomorrow will be similar, though the current forecast calls for heat index values to be a couple degrees lower, causing the peak values to come in just below heat advisory criteria. Given the borderline nature of tomorrow`s heat index forecast, will hold off on a heat advisory for the time being to see how this afternoon`s heat index forecast plays out and whether any adjustments to tomorrow`s forecast are necessary. The most likely location for a heat advisory tomorrow would once again be across areas along and south of the I-10/12 corridor. On Sunday a weak "cold" front will drop into the local area. With the upper level trough associated with this front forecast to remain well north of the local area, the front itself is not likely to move all the way into the Gulf or result in a significant airmass change. Rather, the surface boundary will likely stall either near the coast or over the local area, providing a focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms wherever it stalls. While rain chances will be relatively high on Sunday (mainly in the 50 to 70 percent range), overall rain amounts are forecast to be low, with most places likely to see less than a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 In the wake of Sunday`s "cold" front, slightly drier air will move into the area for the first 2-3 days of the work week. This should keep afternoon heat index values more in the "uncomfortable" 100-105 degree range rather than the "hazardous to your health if precautions aren`t taken" range. The drier air will also allow overnight lows to fall to near normal levels for a couple days with afternoon temperatures rising a couple degrees above normal given the low cloud cover across the area. Moving into the second half of the week, upper level high pressure will breakdown as a trough moves into the upper/middle Mississippi valley. With the local area situated on the western periphery of low level high pressure, onshore winds will bring moisture back into the area as well. This will cause afternoon heat index values to rise again, potentially reaching hazardous levels by Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will be highest (30-40%) in coastal areas where sea and lake breeze boundaries will serve as a focus for isolated to scattered convective initiation. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026 VFR conditions through the overnight and into Saturday morning. Winds will gradually increase a bit, especially along the coastal terminals. Otherwise, GPT has the best potential for convection Saturday afternoon...covered with PROBs for now. Brief reductions and gusty winds will be possible in and around convection during the afternoon. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 High pressure located over the southeastern Gulf will keep west to southwesterly flow in place across the coastal waters for the next several days, though a weak cold front may briefly result in offshore flow Sunday. A tighter pressure gradient will cause winds to strengthen to 15 to 20 knots late tonight through Sunday night across most of the waters and a small craft advisory may be needed for a short period Sunday. The front will provide a focus for scattered to numerous showers and storms, mainly Sunday into Monday as it becomes stationary near the coast or over the northern Gulf and washes out. By the second half of the work week, winds will become more southeasterly as the local area becomes located more on the western periphery of the surface high. Seas will generally build 2 to 4 feet nearshore and 3 to 5 feet offshore in response to the stronger winds Saturday through Sunday night, but will otherwise be in the 1 to 3 feet range. Locally higher winds and seas will also be possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1274002 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:00 AM 01.Aug.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1247 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increasing confidence in a soggy, wet weather pattern for early to middle of next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms weaken and dissipate by sundown, with clearing skies overnight. Patchy fog possible. - Slow-moving frontal boundary nearby Southern New England could favor several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, with street flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms weaken and dissipate by sundown, with clearing skies overnight. Patchy fog possible. Upper level low continues to pull away this afternoon into tonight. However scattered instability type showers have developed this afternoon in a weakly-unstable convective setting, with a couple being capable of a few lightning strikes. Expect activity to move gradually off to the south and east, with diminishing coverage and strength as we move toward sunset. Severe weather is not expected, and even lightning will be tough to come by. We do clear out tonight, and with that comes the risk for patchy fog; the more typically favored areas are most susceptible to patchy fog development. Saturday into Sunday otherwise looks favorable with full sun and seasonable temps, with seabreezes at the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...Slow-moving frontal boundary nearby Southern New England could favor several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, with street flooding possible. Latest ensembles point to an unsettled and potentially active early to midweek as a slow-moving frontal boundary remains nearby or over Southern New England, with an influx of subtropical moisture on southwesterly flow aloft. Main risk this front will bring to Southern New England is another period of soaking downpours given the slow-moving frontal zone interacting with the highly moisture- rich airmass preceding it. It`s still uncertain what the highest rain totals would look like and where they would fall, but with a few spot areas in interior Southern New England having registered quite a bit of rain in the last 48 hours, there would be some risk for localized street flooding. Probabilities for rainfall over 1" in 24 hours has increased into the lower to moderate (20-40%) range. Severe weather potential looks limited. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z TAF Update: Through 12Z: High confidence overall, low on fog coverage. VFR at most terminals, but patchy fog will increase in coverage before dissipating by 13z. Best chance at BDL, BED and ORH. SW winds around 5 kt, becoming light/calm overnight. Saturday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 5-10 kt, with seabreezes developing at BOS around 14-15z. Low chance of a shower or thunderstorm 17z-00z. Low clouds/fog dissipated by 13Z. Saturday night:High confidence. VFR to start. MVFR cigs move in after 06z, mainly SFZ-GHG south. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels through Saturday night. Light northerly winds tonight, shifting to light SW overnight. SW winds pick up to around 10-15 kt, and increasing to 15-20 kt Saturday overnight. Seas 3 ft or less through tonight, then increase to 3-4 ft. Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/... Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
