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#1173172 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 948 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...NEW 06z AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the loss of daytime heating, temperatures across the forecast area are starting to drop into the upper 40s and 50s respectively. The 00z sounding shows quite a mixed boundary layer. Now that the temperatures are falling, a radiation inversion will develop as some rad cooling takes place with the lack of cloudiness. Gradient winds are still elevated closer to the coast, however, we are starting to see winds decrease to 5kts or less across southwest MS...basically where the Freeze Warning is currently in effect. There is still questions in terms of surface winds a tier or two of counties/parishes south of the current freeze headlines. Think along the immediate coast winds will remain just high enough to eliminate the potential max radiational cooling, however, if winds calm over night along the I12 corridor in LA or north of I10 along the MS Gulf Coast, some MinTs may flirt with freezing, especially along the Pearl River or Pascagoula/Escatawpa basins. For now the ongoing forecast seems to be on track so we will continue to keep the wind forecast untouched, but a short fused freeze headline may be needed along the I12 corridor in SE LA and north of I10 along the MS Gulf Coast. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Drier air and plenty of sunshine has allowed us to warm up today a bit more than was expected. Much of the area was in the upper 60s and low 70s today. PW is around 0.5-0.6 inches this afternoon thanks to the drier low-level air mentioned earlier. That is around the 25th percentile for today, showing how abnormally dry it is out there. The tightened pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed this morning has caused some gusty northerly winds this afternoon with the help of thermal mixing. The center of the surface high trailing the front will move over the area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will help back winds down for Tuesday. Although surface winds seems to back down, cold-air advection still seems apparent Tuesday morning, so lows were bumped down from NBM across the area. This led to freezing temperatures across much of SW MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. Freezing temps will only last for maybe and hour or two because as soon as the sun comes up, we will warm up pretty rapidly. You can thank even drier air for that because the drier the air, the more of a diurnal temperature curve you get. Thanks to much drier 850mb air, PW will drop all the way down to 0.2 inches tomorrow, rivaling the daily min for that day of 0.25 inches. Like was mentioned before, the aforementioned drier air on Tuesday will cause air to rapidly warm throughout the day. So, that coupled with the clear skies expected on Tuesday, cause the temps to get bumped up from NBM using a blend of NBM 75th and 90th percentile. The dry air and sunshine will also cause dewpoints to mix out efficiently at the surface, so NBM 10th percentile was used for that as well. This drops our RH to below 25 percent for most of the area, so be careful burning tomorrow if you do. Thankfully, since the center of the surface high will be overhead, winds will not be an issue for fires. By Wednesday, the surface high slides to the east and we get return flow setting up. This will moisten us back up where PW will get back above 0.5 inches, although still abnormally dry. This also allows temps to continue to get warmer and actually feel like Spring for the first day of spring! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Thursday, another upper level system is expected to influence the area as a low moves through the southeast US, which will enhance rain chances Thursday into Friday morning. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will help to advect warmer and moist air into the region, enhancing instability as well. There are still quite a few uncertainties in the model consensus in the mid- range forecast, mostly surrounding the amount of rainfall expected. Some are drier while others show more of a potential for training. Our forecast has been trending a little drier to be more in line with growing trends in the forecast. PoPs are still in the 30-50% range. After the system moves through, ridging will dominate the upper level pattern and conditions will be dry Friday through the weekend. Northerly surface winds Friday through Saturday night will help keep conditions a little less humid, but highs will still be pushing 80 degrees this weekend. Sunday will be mostly a transition day for the atmosphere as surface winds shift back to southerly and moisture is reintroduced to the atmosphere. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Otherwise, northerly winds will start out gusty closer to the coast/lake, but should decrease through early morning. Eventually the winds will become light and variable with little if any flight concerns through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northerly winds behind the cold front has caused hazardous seas today through tomorrow morning. Once the center of the surface highs gets overhead, the winds significantly back down below impact thresholds, and benign conditions stick through the end of the week. There is another shot of rain Thursday with the next system, but there is still some uncertainty on timing and location of the rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 31 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 68 37 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 70 35 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 43 60 47 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 37 60 43 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173171 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1037 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Water vapor imagery highlights a Rex Block across the CONUS, although the 00Z RAOBs sampled rising heights within the cutoff low meaning the Rex may be breaking. At 925 mb, Slidell sampled a temperature almost 25 degreesC lower than Key West, and Freeze Warnings are in effect for the northern Gulf Coast. For middle to late March, this is a pretty good air mass gradient. Surface observations place a cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Central Florida. Northerly breezes are near Gale (28-33 kt) at the offshore oil platforms behind the front. The Keys remain in a little col region between the warm conveyor emanating from western Cuba, and the frontally forced convection dying out over the southeastern Gulf. The Cuban Boomers are happy near the coast, but seem to be struggling with the Cuban shadow (sampled by KEY) lurking farther north in the Straits of Florida. The forecast calls for 30% rain chances overnight, which is notably below the MOS consensus. The main forecast challenge is assessing the moisture convergence between the percolating Cuban Boomers and the developing northwesterly breezes. By dawn, northwest to north winds will increase to near 20 knots, which should set up a good scenario for a broken line of convection over the Straits after midnight. Aside from introducing a Small Craft Advisory for the expected winds, we will hold at 30% rain chances as we expect the best convergence to be south of the island chain. No other changes are needed with the inherited forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Small Craft Advisory in effect for all coastal waters of the Florida Keys due to north winds increasing to near 20 knots after midnight. Northerly breezes will freshen sharply tonight as a cold front pushes through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Breezes will turn easterly and diminish Tuesday through Wednesday. Unsettled weather at the end of the week will result in fresh to strong breezes Thursday night and Friday, followed by breezes shifting to the southwest then northwest at the tail-end of the unsettled weather. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 955 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The merging of a cold front with showers spreading northeast through the Straits of Florida will introduce a short window of VCSH at both terminals overnight. Forecast soundings suggest northerly crosswinds will reach 20 to 25 knots around sunrise, along with a brief period of TEMPO MVFR CIGS. Winds will shift east of north and decrease after 16Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 72 77 69 79 / 30 10 0 10 Marathon 72 79 69 80 / 30 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
#1173170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1031 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Improving conditions are forecast through the overnight hours across east central Florida, with model guidance indicating another round of isolated to scattered showers, primarily across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, late tonight as the front pushes further south. An isolated storm or two cannot fully be ruled out, though confidence in this is low. Went ahead and upped PoPs based on this to around 30 percent across the southern portions of the forecast area. Shower and storm chances are then forecast to diminish overnight across east central Florida as drier air begins filtering in across the peninsula behind the front. North to northwest winds are forecast to increase to 10 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph behind the front, with the strongest gusts forecast to occur along the coast, especially the Barrier Islands. Skies will gradually clear due to the drier airmass moving in. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than last night, with lows in the mid to upper 40s north and west of the I-4 corridor, and in the 50s southward. && .MARINE... Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters tonight. Winds are forecast to increase out of the north behind a cold front that is moving southward across the local Atlantic waters, with winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots late tonight. Occasional wind gusts between 35 to 40 knots will be possible, especially across the offshore waters. In response to these increasing winds, seas will also increase to 6 to 10 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect across the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters, and will expand to include the remaining waters after 1 AM. Isolated to scattered shower development will continue to be possible tonight as the front sags southward, with rain chances decreasing through the overnight hours. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, though confidence in any more development is low. Dry conditions are forecast behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tue-Thu (Previous)...Very dry conditions through mid-week, as post- frontal air leads to min RH values around 45% or lower Tue area- wide and as low as the upper 20%s across the interior. This will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions when combined with northerly winds 10-15 mph, and up to 15-20 mph along the coast, Tue morning. But, will see winds decrease by Tue aftn. Generally Good to Very Good dispersion in the morning will become Fair to Generally Good through the day. Further drying is then forecast Wed, with widespread min RHs in the mid to upper 20%s, while coastal areas south of the Cape remain in the mid to upper 30%s. However, winds become light, as high pressure builds into the area. Wind directions will be variable, but a sea breeze is possible during the afternoon. Lighter winds will lead to Poor to Fair dispersion. Will see some improvement Thu, though min RH 30-45% is still forecast, with the driest conditions inland. Winds increase once again, becoming easterly around 8-12 mph in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VCSH diminishing across east central Florida after 03Z as the cold front sags southward. Increasing north-northwesterly winds tonight, with winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots possible. Skies are forecast to gradually clear across the area as drier air filters in behind the front. As a result, VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds will gradually diminish to around 10 knots tomorrow. Dry through the period after 03Z tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 48 62 44 73 / 20 0 0 0 MCO 51 67 47 74 / 20 0 0 0 MLB 54 66 50 73 / 20 0 0 0 VRB 57 69 50 74 / 30 0 0 0 LEE 47 67 45 73 / 20 0 0 0 SFB 49 66 44 75 / 20 0 0 0 ORL 51 67 48 75 / 20 0 0 0 FPR 57 69 49 74 / 30 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
#1173169 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:36 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1026 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday night. Milder and continued dry through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast Atlantic coast. && .UPDATE... Gusts along the I-95 corridor have increased to around 30 mph. Updated forecast to reflect current obs (mainly an adjustment to timing). Gusts should decrease late tonight as a shallow surface inversion limits mixing. Radar shows widespread weak echos which appear to be deepening as the upper level low converges with the existing surface boundary. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well offshore, while weak low pressure lingers across Appalachia and the Piedmont. The frontal passage from earlier this morning has allowed for very dry air to settle at the surface. Dewpoints this morning were in the mid 50s, and have now dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Ironically enough, clouds aloft have filled in over the last couple of hours, as a potent shortwave aloft starts to drop into the area from the northwest. Said shortwave will quickly sweep through the area tonight. Cloud cover will continue to thicken aloft, despite the very dry air at the surface. There`s a subtle hint of moisture convergence north of Cape Fear after 10 PM, and the atmosphere will try to squeeze out whatever water it can. However, the saturation is very thin, lingering at around 700mb. Surface dewpoints continue to plummet into the lower 20s, so whatever falls out of the cloud may dry out before it hits the surface ("virga" being the technical term for that phenomena). Some folks may see a couple sprinkles at best before 2 AM tonight across the coastal regions of southeast NC. Elsewhere, lows tonight bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s. The temperatures meet Frost Advisory criteria inland, but tonight looks looks much too dry and windy to actually issue one. Probabilistic guidance suggests a modest chance (30-50%) of temperatures actually near or even just below freezing across certain parts of Darlington and Marlboro Counties. I`m not so confident on that idea, given the elevated winds, and if anybody does hit the freezing mark, it probably would only be for an hour or so. Therefore, holding off on a Freeze Warning tonight. Plenty of sunshine on the way for Tuesday, but it`ll be on the chilly side, with high pressure from the Midwest having an influence. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 50s in what looks to be the coolest day of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not much of note this period with the region under the influence of weak sfc high pressure, allowing for continued dry weather over the local area. Some moderation of temps noted as thicknesses increase...highs in the 60s/70s unlike the 50s forecasted for Tuesday. A weak front moving through Wednesday night will lead to slightly cooler temps Thursday than Wednesday, but still near normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus in the long term period will be on developing Gulf of Mexico sfc low pressure tracking northeastward. In general guidance seems a bit more progressive with this southern stream system now, however there remains large differences in timing. Enough confidence to retain likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night, with the rain moderate to heavy at times and a slight chance of thunder. A drying trend ensues over the weekend, but it remains unclear how long the rain will linger especially on Saturday should the mid-level trough slow down. Temps fairly close to normal for late March this period. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. Gusts this evening behind a surface boundary could peak around 30-35 knots before cooler air initiates a surface inversion prior to morning flights. Upper trough may squeeze out a couple of sprinkles in NC, but no VIS/CIG issues expected. Clear tomorrow with winds gradually shifting from NW to SW during the afternoon. SW winds could be gusty prior to sunset. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Pressure gradient increases tonight with an upper level system moving through, bringing stiff northwesterly winds into the fold. These winds will initiate a Small Craft Advisory at 11 PM EDT tonight, going through noon EDT Tuesday. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few gusts hit gale criteria tonight, particularly over the northeast SC coastal waters, but it`s not quite consistent enough to upgrade these to a Gale Warning at this time. These offshore winds cause wind waves to poke up at 3-4ft. After the upper level disturbance moves through, winds eventually decrease to 10-15kts from the southwest by Tuesday afternoon. Seas decrease to 1-2ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Couple more SCA headlines expected this period. First is Tuesday night as the pressure gradient increases in SW flow ahead of the next weak front. Somewhat improving conditions then for Wednesday and Thursday, before winds and seas ramp up Friday into Saturday in association with developing low pressure sliding up the SE coast. By early Saturday expect seas up to 8-9 ft and winds gusting to ~25 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity tomorrow afternoon will fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds will hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest winds will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later in the day. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible during the late afternoon and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to increased fire danger on Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ |
#1173168 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM UPDATE... Overall the forecast remains on track; however, temperatures might not get as cold as originally expected. Just looking at the overall pattern, we are still under the influences of a 50 to 60 knot 500mb jet and a rather tight pressure gradient at the surface. As a result, winds are expected to remain elevated especially closer to the coast. Typically gusty winds limit radiational cooling through mechanical mixing and this coupled with some higher clouds streaming overhead in response to a subtropical jet over the Gulf might help keep temperatures more in the mid 30s further south and only areas along and north of highway 84 to reach below freezing. On top of warmer temperatures, frost may be a little more difficult given rather large dewpoint depressions nearing 10 degrees or more and once again breezy conditions. Typically for good frost formation you want cool, moist, calm conditions with clear skies. This may only happen further north where drier air has filtered in and the influences of the upper jet are not noticeable. Nonetheless, some of the area will likely see a late season freeze tonight and the potential for some frost still exists. .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 919 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region, moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low 30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region, however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 33 61 40 70 47 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Pensacola 39 60 43 68 49 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Destin 42 60 47 67 52 70 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Evergreen 32 61 34 72 43 73 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 Waynesboro 30 61 34 70 44 68 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Camden 30 59 34 70 44 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 Crestview 32 62 35 71 43 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
#1173167 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:24 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1018 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area Friday and Saturday, before high pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: A short-wave trough will be swinging through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region during the course of the night, passing offshore well before daybreak. No more than some altocumulus will occur with the passage of that trough, especially north of I-16 in South Carolina. There will also be few-scattered cirrus early on in response to the right entrance region of a 140+ upper jet. The main issue for us will be a period of gustier winds and decent cold advection as a large of high pressure centered in the vicinity of the Arklatex expands into the Gulf Coast and southeast states in the wake of the trough. Tightening pressure gradient (4-5 millibars across the area for a few hours late evening and the first part of the overnight) will lead to a period of gustier winds during that time, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph anticipated across the region. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Moultrie. Winds will be tapering off some through the overnight hours as cold advection slows down. Temperature-wise: Strong cold advection drives the 850 mb temps down into the -2C to -4C range by morning. This is far below normal, which should be around 8.5C to 8.7C. Along with diminishing winds and clearing skies, lows will drop through the 30s for all areas away from the coast with the coldest readings well inland. Associated wind chills will be as low as in the 20s far inland late. Persistent winds and dry incoming air mass will limit frost development to no more than maybe a little patchy coverage late near the US-301 corridor, but only if RH levels are high enough. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aloft, a large trough will pivot offshore Tuesday, shifting further away from the region while a zonal flow takes place across the Southeast United States through mid-week. At the sfc, high pressure across the South-central United States will extend east across Gulf Coast states and Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday, before a cold front arrives from the north/northwest by early Thursday. Conditions will remain dry locally through the middle of the week while a west-northwest downslope wind prevails along the eastern edge of the high centered to our west, even as the cold front pushes into the local area by early Thursday. Despite ample sfc heating under clear skies, temps will struggle to warm significantly on Tuesday while weak cold air advection wanes across the region. In general, high temps should only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s (warmest across southeast Georgia). Although temps are cooler during peak heating, dry air should lead to afternoon RH values between 20- 25% away from the coast Tuesday afternoon. Sfc winds are expected to remain below 10 mph though, so fire wx concerns should be limited. Sfc winds should slowly turn southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, offsetting some radiational cooling at night and resulting in airmass modification on Wednesday ahead of an arriving cold front. In general, Tuesday night lows should dip into the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to mid-upper 40s near the coast. On Wednesday, high temps should peak in the lower 70s with sunny conditions in place. Guidance indicates a dry cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night, likely becoming positioned along or just south of the local area by daybreak Thursday. Despite northerly winds post fropa, sfc temps should peak in the lower 70s under partly sunny skies in advance of a low pressure system developing and shifting eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico heading into late week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. An upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast United States early Friday through early Saturday, forcing an area of low pressure across the northeast Gulf to possibly strengthen while tracking over/near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWATs should increase to around 1.25 inches as the system nears, and with strong isentropic ascent and a lingering front across the area, should promote showers to develop locally Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers are now forecast to occur for most areas Friday and Friday evening, before precip activity trends offshore with the sfc low pulling away Saturday. Some guidance suggests some modest instability developing near the coast and offshore as the low tracks near the region, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast. The aforementioned low should continue to depart the region late weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning into early afternoon, precip chances should become confined to the coastal waters by Saturday evening. Dry conditions should then prevail Sunday with high pressure in place. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through 00Z Wednesday. Gusty NW winds peaking around 25 kt or so much of tonight, will diminish to around 10 kt by 08-10Z Tuesday, as cold advection diminishes and the gradient slackens some. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through Thursday. Flight restrictions are possible at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals Thursday night into Friday as showers/low clouds develop with a passing low pressure system. && .MARINE... Tonight: A strong 1027 mb high centered near the Arklatex will expand east and stretch over the coastal waters. A tight gradient, with as much as a 3 or 4 mb spread, plus constant isallobaric pressure climbs will exist. Those conditions along with significant cold air advection will allow for good mixing of the 35 or 40 kt geostrophic winds. As a result we have Gale Warnings in effect for all Atlantic waters, with a high end Small Craft Advisory in Charleston Harbor. Seas will be limited close to shore due to the offshore fetch with NW winds. But as one navigates further into the Atlantic, seas will be as high as 5 feet near 20 nm out, and up to 8 feet beyond 40 or 50 nm out. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions will improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston County waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is then expected to pass near/off the Southeast Coast Friday into Saturday, likely contributing to deteriorating marine conditions across local waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most waters, but the track/strength of the low pressure system will play a large role in overall impacts along the Southeast Coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173166 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:06 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 857 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...NEW UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the loss of daytime heating, temperatures across the forecast area are starting to drop into the upper 40s and 50s respectively. The 00z sounding shows quite a mixed boundary layer. Now that the temperatures are falling, a radiation inversion will develop as some rad cooling takes place with the lack of cloudiness. Gradient winds are still elevated closer to the coast, however, we are starting to see winds decrease to 5kts or less across southwest MS...basically where the Freeze Warning is currently in effect. There is still questions in terms of surface winds a tier or two of counties/parishes south of the current freeze headlines. Think along the immediate coast winds will remain just high enough to eliminate the potential max radiational cooling, however, if winds calm over night along the I12 corridor in LA or north of I10 along the MS Gulf Coast, some MinTs may flirt with freezing, especially along the Pearl River or Pascagoula/Escatawpa basins. For now the ongoing forecast seems to be on track so we will continue to keep the wind forecast untouched, but a short fused freeze headline may be needed along the I12 corridor in SE LA and north of I10 along the MS Gulf Coast. (Frye) && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Drier air and plenty of sunshine has allowed us to warm up today a bit more than was expected. Much of the area was in the upper 60s and low 70s today. PW is around 0.5-0.6 inches this afternoon thanks to the drier low-level air mentioned earlier. That is around the 25th percentile for today, showing how abnormally dry it is out there. The tightened pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed this morning has caused some gusty northerly winds this afternoon with the help of thermal mixing. The center of the surface high trailing the front will move over the area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will help back winds down for Tuesday. Although surface winds seems to back down, cold-air advection still seems apparent Tuesday morning, so lows were bumped down from NBM across the area. This led to freezing temperatures across much of SW MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. Freezing temps will only last for maybe and hour or two because as soon as the sun comes up, we will warm up pretty rapidly. You can thank even drier air for that because the drier the air, the more of a diurnal temperature curve you get. Thanks to much drier 850mb air, PW will drop all the way down to 0.2 inches tomorrow, rivaling the daily min for that day of 0.25 inches. Like was mentioned before, the aforementioned drier air on Tuesday will cause air to rapidly warm throughout the day. So, that coupled with the clear skies expected on Tuesday, cause the temps to get bumped up from NBM using a blend of NBM 75th and 90th percentile. The dry air and sunshine will also cause dewpoints to mix out efficiently at the surface, so NBM 10th percentile was used for that as well. This drops our RH to below 25 percent for most of the area, so be careful burning tomorrow if you do. Thankfully, since the center of the surface high will be overhead, winds will not be an issue for fires. By Wednesday, the surface high slides to the east and we get return flow setting up. This will moisten us back up where PW will get back above 0.5 inches, although still abnormally dry. This also allows temps to continue to get warmer and actually feel like Spring for the first day of spring! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Thursday, another upper level system is expected to influence the area as a low moves through the southeast US, which will enhance rain chances Thursday into Friday morning. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will help to advect warmer and moist air into the region, enhancing instability as well. There are still quite a few uncertainties in the model consensus in the mid- range forecast, mostly surrounding the amount of rainfall expected. Some are drier while others show more of a potential for training. Our forecast has been trending a little drier to be more in line with growing trends in the forecast. PoPs are still in the 30-50% range. After the system moves through, ridging will dominate the upper level pattern and conditions will be dry Friday through the weekend. Northerly surface winds Friday through Saturday night will help keep conditions a little less humid, but highs will still be pushing 80 degrees this weekend. Sunday will be mostly a transition day for the atmosphere as surface winds shift back to southerly and moisture is reintroduced to the atmosphere. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Otherwise, northerly winds will start out gusty, but should decrease through the night and early Tuesday morning. Eventually the winds will become variable with little if any flight concerns through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northerly winds behind the cold front has caused hazardous seas today through tomorrow morning. Once the center of the surface highs gets overhead, the winds significantly back down below impact thresholds, and benign conditions stick through the end of the week. There is another shot of rain Thursday with the next system, but there is still some uncertainty on timing and location of the rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 31 62 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 37 65 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 35 63 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 43 60 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 37 60 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 35 63 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173165 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 935 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Breezy to gusty northwesterly winds continue for a few more hours as a fresh push of cooler and drier air arrives. These winds are forecast to decrease some prior to sunrise Tuesday with temperatures generally in the middle to upper 30s for a good majority of the area. Have continued tonight`s Freeze Warning for portions of Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia in case winds decrease a little sooner than expected. The biggest changes made to this update were to lower the dew points faster and to keep elevated winds and wind gusts a bit longer tonight. Otherwise, no major updates were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties. Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front. Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR through the period. High pressure ridge will build into the area from the high center in the southern Plains. The pressure gradient is strong enough for gusts for the next few hours 15-25 knots. Wind directions will veer this evening from the west to the northwest and speeds will decrease into the late evening hours. Highs clouds will be around much of the night then move southeast away from the area towards dawn. && .MARINE... Issued at 927 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Advisory level conditions continue through early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce Tuesday afternoon and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Tuesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
#1173164 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:27 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 920 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 920 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. Cloud tops are cooling in the IR satellite imagery this evening and weak returns are indicated on radar. However, the 00Z MHX raob continued to show considerable dry air in the low levels this evening, suggesting that most of the precipitation being observed on radar will fall as virga and evaporate before reaching the ground. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10") will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% PoPs /highest north-lowest south/. Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low to mid 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/... As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses, then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts. LONG TERM /Tuesday Evening through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 920 PM Monday...Winds are currently variable 5-15kts this evening, and will become gusty NW`rly overnight as an upper trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts over the Gulf Stream. A SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 430 PM Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Tue - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131- 135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173163 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:36 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 832 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure will cross the region this evening, bringing a period of gusty winds and a chance for showers across southeast portions of the forecast area. High pressure becomes centered along the Gulf coast Tuesday through Wednesday, with dry and breezy conditions prevailing locally. A cold front pushes through the mid Atlantic Wednesday night, with high pressure building north of the region Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 810 PM EDT Monday... The latest WX analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure near the coast in SE VA/NE NC, with a trough aloft off to the NW of the FA. Radar continues to show some scattered showers from NE of Richmond through east central and SE VA, though with very dry low levels (T/Td depression greater than 30F), most of this will not reach the ground. For far SE VA and NE NC, dew pts are significantly higher with T/Td depressions 10-15F (temps upper 40s with dew pts in the mid 30s), and there have been a few obs reporting light rain. Will have PoPs of 30-50% over the SE zones through ~06Z/2am, with dry conditions elsewhere. It will also be breezy gusty N/NW winds as colder air aloft mixes down with gusts to 20-30mph inland and 30-40mph at the coast. Otherwise, look for a clearing sky overnight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these winds and expected low RH tomorrow afternoon, wildfire danger will be elevated. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the mi/upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Wed will also be breezy to windy with continued low RH. Wildfire danger will again be elevated. Highs will range through the 60s on Wednesday. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to near 60 in south-central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday and possibly lingering into Saturday. The ECMWF lingers rain, at least along the coast all day Saturday, while the GFS/CMC solution is more progressive. At this time, fcst will show a compromise of these solutions, with the best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through early Sat. Will have lingering chance PoPs Sat aftn through Sat eve. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Monday... Scattered showers will prevail across SE VA/NE NC through about 06Z, though primarily VFR conditions are expected (could see brief MVFR restrictions at ORF/ECG). Winds have already shifted to the NW at RIC/SBY, and will do so prior to 04Z/12am across the SE VA and NE NC terminals. Expect wind gusts to 20-25kt, with winds generally diminishing between 06-12Z. VFR but with gusty W winds on Tuesday. Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail Tue night through Thu, but remaining breezy with WSW on Wed, shifting to the NNW Wed night into Thursday. A chance for rain and some flight restrictions Fri-Sat. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Winds this afternoon are generally from the N/NW at 10-15 kt. Winds have actually turned onshore across the srn waters, mainly S of Cape Charles Light and in the srn Chesapeake Bay. Seas are 2-4 ft (highest S) and waves 1-2 ft. Into this evening, the pressure gradient quickly tightens as a strong upper disturbance approaches from the W. This will allow for a strong surge of CAA this evening into tonight over all of the waters, with the potential for a period of gale-force gusts in the lower bay and offshore of VA Beach, especially between 4-9z. Gale warnings were raised for these areas, including at the mouth of the bay, from 2-11z Tue for NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts to ~35 kt. Small craft advisories have been issued for all other area waters through 17z Tue where winds quickly increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. The gale warning will also need to be replaced w/ a SCA after it expires. Seas increase to 3-6 ft during this period, with waves in the bay also increasing to 3-5 ft given the favorable N/NW fetch. Winds diminish some for Tue aftn and then shift to the W/SW, though they may remain gusty to ~20 kt. Another period of elevated SW winds are then expected Tue evening/overnight as another upper disturbance slides through. SCAs look likely for most of the waters for this event. And then for Wed aftn, deep mixing and higher 925 mb winds could lead to continuing SCAs in the bay and especially the rivers and Currituck Sound. A dry cold front passes S through the region Wed night, with a surge of NNW winds likely with SCAs again possible. It looks more benign to end the week with high pressure ridging down from the N. Complex fcst remains for the weekend with cyclogenesis to our S over the Gulf Stream. The GFS and ECMWF show significant discrepancies though have leaned toward a ECMWF/CMC solution which delays the strongest winds until Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility of any fires burning out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ll hoist an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties for Tuesday, save the MD Beaches and OBX Currituck. With winds expected to be stronger on Wednesday, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, will hoist a Fire Wx Watch for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. Elsewhere, expecting another IFD Statement on Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635- 650-652. Gale Warning until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-636>638- 654-658. && $$ |
#1173162 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 746 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Today marked the first day most of our climate stations have hit 90 degrees F this year thanks to prolonged southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front. The front is currently over Central Florida and is still forecast to move over our area overnight into tomorrow morning. Ahead of the front, isolated showers and storms have developed over portions of the interior and East Coast, but the stronger thunderstorm activity has mostly remained out over the Atlantic waters. Portions of Palm Beach County could still see a few showers and storms develop over the next couple of hours before the front drops through, but none of that activity is expected to pose a severe threat to the region. Behind the front, drier,cooler air will filter in, allowing for a much needed relief overnight and tomorrow. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 50s over the interior and mid 60s along the East Coast. Tomorrow, highs will remain in the low to mid 70s over much of the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southern Florida remains in the warm sector ahead of a weak frontal boundary, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little impacts are expected from this feature over South Florida this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Beautiful weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this time period will be at or slightly below normal. A potent system is expected to cross FL Friday into early Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early forecast QPF ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher amounts will certainly be possible. Still too early to determine if there will be a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening, but that potential will be monitored closely over the next several days. Southerly winds will be quite gusty through late Friday night, especially along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph + possible. Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be right around climatological norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions should prevail for most of the sites through the period. A cold front will move through the area overnight into tomorrow morning, with westerly winds quickly veering from the N-NE tomorrow. Some sites could see gusts up to 20-25 kts behind the front. KAPF could still see sub-VFR conditions over the next few hours as nearby stratus deck clears from the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 67 76 61 78 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 66 78 58 79 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 77 60 80 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 67 77 61 78 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 74 60 76 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 66 74 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 66 76 60 79 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 63 72 58 75 / 20 10 0 0 Boca Raton 64 74 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 63 76 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
#1173161 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 801 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to drift south along and ahead of a cold front. Low-level winds across most of the area have been backing to WNW suggesting that the expected change is getting underway. This is also undercutting low-level instability, along with the loss of diurnal heating. Storms are expected to continue for awhile longer across central and SWFL, but the severe threat has largely waned. With storms clearing over the next few hours and the continental airmass settling in, everyone will certainly be waking up to a cooler and drier morning, made more noticeable by the fact that it has been rather warm and humid. A few adjustments to the forecast have been made tonight to reflect current radar trends and winds. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to drift across central and SWFL, with MVFR to possibly even brief IFR impacts in the vicinity. As a cold front moves through overnight, any lingering CIGs will quickly lift as VFR returns. No major concerns exist thereafter until Friday when the next system approaches. && .MARINE... Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Showers and storms continue to move across coastal waters as winds and seas build with a cold front pushing across the region. Dangerous conditions for small craft are expected through midday tomorrow before improving through the middle of the week. The next storm system approaches Friday, with another round of storms and marine hazards possible across the region. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 52 69 51 73 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 60 76 54 79 / 30 0 0 0 GIF 50 69 46 75 / 20 0 0 0 SRQ 54 74 50 76 / 30 0 0 0 BKV 44 68 40 74 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 55 68 56 72 / 20 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
#1173160 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 640 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Drier air and plenty of sunshine has allowed us to warm up today a bit more than was expected. Much of the area was in the upper 60s and low 70s today. PW is around 0.5-0.6 inches this afternoon thanks to the drier low-level air mentioned earlier. That is around the 25th percentile for today, showing how abnormally dry it is out there. The tightened pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed this morning has caused some gusty northerly winds this afternoon with the help of thermal mixing. The center of the surface high trailing the front will move over the area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will help back winds down for Tuesday. Although surface winds seems to back down, cold-air advection still seems apparent Tuesday morning, so lows were bumped down from NBM across the area. This led to freezing temperatures across much of SW MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. Freezing temps will only last for maybe and hour or two because as soon as the sun comes up, we will warm up pretty rapidly. You can thank even drier air for that because the drier the air, the more of a diurnal temperature curve you get. Thanks to much drier 850mb air, PW will drop all the way down to 0.2 inches tomorrow, rivaling the daily min for that day of 0.25 inches. Like was mentioned before, the aforementioned drier air on Tuesday will cause air to rapidly warm throughout the day. So, that coupled with the clear skies expected on Tuesday, cause the temps to get bumped up from NBM using a blend of NBM 75th and 90th percentile. The dry air and sunshine will also cause dewpoints to mix out efficiently at the surface, so NBM 10th percentile was used for that as well. This drops our RH to below 25 percent for most of the area, so be careful burning tomorrow if you do. Thankfully, since the center of the surface high will be overhead, winds will not be an issue for fires. By Wednesday, the surface high slides to the east and we get return flow setting up. This will moisten us back up where PW will get back above 0.5 inches, although still abnormally dry. This also allows temps to continue to get warmer and actually feel like Spring for the first day of spring! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Thursday, another upper level system is expected to influence the area as a low moves through the southeast US, which will enhance rain chances Thursday into Friday morning. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will help to advect warmer and moist air into the region, enhancing instability as well. There are still quite a few uncertainties in the model consensus in the mid- range forecast, mostly surrounding the amount of rainfall expected. Some are drier while others show more of a potential for training. Our forecast has been trending a little drier to be more in line with growing trends in the forecast. PoPs are still in the 30-50% range. After the system moves through, ridging will dominate the upper level pattern and conditions will be dry Friday through the weekend. Northerly surface winds Friday through Saturday night will help keep conditions a little less humid, but highs will still be pushing 80 degrees this weekend. Sunday will be mostly a transition day for the atmosphere as surface winds shift back to southerly and moisture is reintroduced to the atmosphere. MSW && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail. Otherwise, northerly winds will start out gusty, but should decrease through the night and early Tuesday morning. Eventually the winds will become variable with little if any flight concerns through the cycle. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northerly winds behind the cold front has caused hazardous seas today through tomorrow morning. Once the center of the surface highs gets overhead, the winds significantly back down below impact thresholds, and benign conditions stick through the end of the week. There is another shot of rain Thursday with the next system, but there is still some uncertainty on timing and location of the rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 32 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 38 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 36 64 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 44 62 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 36 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 64 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173159 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 733 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday night. Milder and continued dry through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast Atlantic coast. && .UPDATE... A mid-level shortwave trough is beginning to produce cloud cover across west-central NC/SC. Additionally, low-level frontogenesis is maximized ahead of what appears to be a surface trough or secondary cold front. Shortwave energy will catch the surface boundary tonight and these two will work to produce lowering cloud bases and a light shower or sprinkle. The latest update advertises a slight increase in PoPs where LCL-LFC RH will be nearly saturated: southern and eastern NC. Dry air beneath the LCL and a shallow warm cloud layer should keep the intensity at a sprinkle. Weaker echos on radar are unlikely to reach the ground all together. Forecast wind gusts have been increased with the latest update as well due to deep mixing behind the boundary. Dry adiabatic momentum transfer of 25-30 knots is possible before cooler air arrives and a surface inversion knocks surface winds back to around 10 knots. Observed dew points in western NC/SC are currently in the upper teens. While this exceptionally dry air pushes eastward tonight, the late night surface inversion will pause advection briefly. Therefore, I made an adjustment to daytime dew points and RH to more accurately reflect tomorrow`s mixing potential based on these initial observations. Tonight`s dew points seem OK, assuming dew point advection pauses briefly after 9Z. For this discussion: the routine aviation section has been updated for 00Z issuance and a Fire Weather section has been added to provide details on the Fire Danger Statement issued earlier. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well offshore, while weak low pressure lingers across Appalachia and the Piedmont. The frontal passage from earlier this morning has allowed for very dry air to settle at the surface. Dewpoints this morning were in the mid 50s, and have now dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Ironically enough, clouds aloft have filled in over the last couple of hours, as a potent shortwave aloft starts to drop into the area from the northwest. Said shortwave will quickly sweep through the area tonight. Cloud cover will continue to thicken aloft, despite the very dry air at the surface. There`s a subtle hint of moisture convergence north of Cape Fear after 10 PM, and the atmosphere will try to squeeze out whatever water it can. However, the saturation is very thin, lingering at around 700mb. Surface dewpoints continue to plummet into the lower 20s, so whatever falls out of the cloud may dry out before it hits the surface ("virga" being the technical term for that phenomena). Some folks may see a couple sprinkles at best before 2 AM tonight across the coastal regions of southeast NC. Elsewhere, lows tonight bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s. The temperatures meet Frost Advisory criteria inland, but tonight looks looks much too dry and windy to actually issue one. Probabilistic guidance suggests a modest chance (30-50%) of temperatures actually near or even just below freezing across certain parts of Darlington and Marlboro Counties. I`m not so confident on that idea, given the elevated winds, and if anybody does hit the freezing mark, it probably would only be for an hour or so. Therefore, holding off on a Freeze Warning tonight. Plenty of sunshine on the way for Tuesday, but it`ll be on the chilly side, with high pressure from the Midwest having an influence. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 50s in what looks to be the coolest day of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not much of note this period with the region under the influence of weak sfc high pressure, allowing for continued dry weather over the local area. Some moderation of temps noted as thicknesses increase...highs in the 60s/70s unlike the 50s forecasted for Tuesday. A weak front moving through Wednesday night will lead to slightly cooler temps Thursday than Wednesday, but still near normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus in the long term period will be on developing Gulf of Mexico sfc low pressure tracking northeastward. In general guidance seems a bit more progressive with this southern stream system now, however there remains large differences in timing. Enough confidence to retain likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night, with the rain moderate to heavy at times and a slight chance of thunder. A drying trend ensues over the weekend, but it remains unclear how long the rain will linger especially on Saturday should the mid-level trough slow down. Temps fairly close to normal for late March this period. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR. Gusts this evening behind a surface boundary could peak around 30-35 knots before cooler air initiates a surface inversion prior to morning flights. Upper trough may squeeze out a couple of sprinkles in NC, but no VIS/CIG issues expected. Clear tomorrow with winds gradually shifting from NW to SW during the afternoon. SW winds could be gusty prior to sunset. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Pressure gradient increases tonight with an upper level system moving through, bringing stiff northwesterly winds into the fold. These winds will initiate a Small Craft Advisory at 11 PM EDT tonight, going through noon EDT Tuesday. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few gusts hit gale criteria tonight, particularly over the northeast SC coastal waters, but it`s not quite consistent enough to upgrade these to a Gale Warning at this time. These offshore winds cause wind waves to poke up at 3-4ft. After the upper level disturbance moves through, winds eventually decrease to 10-15kts from the southwest by Tuesday afternoon. Seas decrease to 1-2ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Couple more SCA headlines expected this period. First is Tuesday night as the pressure gradient increases in SW flow ahead of the next weak front. Somewhat improving conditions then for Wednesday and Thursday, before winds and seas ramp up Friday into Saturday in association with developing low pressure sliding up the SE coast. By early Saturday expect seas up to 8-9 ft and winds gusting to ~25 kt. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of southeastern North Carolina. Minimum relative humidity tomorrow afternoon will fall to 15-25% across the area. Northwest and west winds will hover around 10-15 mph early in the day, but southwest winds will increase during the afternoon, becoming gusty later in the day. Gusts up to 25 mph are possible during the late afternoon and just prior to sunset. The combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will lead to increased fire danger on Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173158 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 740 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties. Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front. Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR through the period. High pressure ridge will build into the area from the high center in the southern Plains. The pressure gradient is strong enough for gusts for the next few hours 15-25 knots. Wind directions will veer this evening from the west to the northwest and speeds will decrease into the late evening hours. Highs clouds will be around much of the night then move southeast away from the area towards dawn. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Cold front continues to move south of the region and as another wave moves through tonight, expect an increase in northerly winds across the area which will bring solid advisory level conditions with 20 to 30 knot winds into early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce during the afternoon on Tuesday and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765- 775. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770- 772. && $$ |
#1173157 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 643 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion! Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers. However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities. A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around 50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere, resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s in our northern / northeast counties). Self && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly area, the hail would be the main concern. Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper level low continues to swing through. There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds should gradually weaken after sunset. Light easterly winds can be expected Tuesday morning, then becoming south to southeast in the afternoon. JM && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters, but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least exercise caution into Tuesday morning. Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night. A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near the coastal low. Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns for the weekend with mostly clear skies. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 39 65 50 68 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 43 66 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 52 62 56 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
#1173156 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 726 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and cool tonight with blustery west winds. Gusty west winds again tomorrow with mainly dry conditions. Rain and snow shower chances overnight Wednesday as a moisture starved shortwave swings through. Anomolously dry conditions return Thursday and Friday before a potential precipitation maker this weekend; though the existence and the track of the low remains shrouded in uncertainty. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 7 PM Update... No substantial changes made to the forecast with this update. Some minor changes so sky cover and the temperature trend after sunset were made to bring the forecast more in line with current observations. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, we are headed towards a seasonably chilly night with temps either side of freezing region wide. Previous Update... The core of the 500mb cold pool works in overhead with temperatures of -35 aloft. Strong CAA along with 925mb winds around 20-25 knots will continue to promote mixing overnight. Expecting the gusty winds from this afternoon to drop off, however, sustained winds will likely stay around 10-15 mph. Despite the non-ideal radiational cooling conditions, strong cold air advection will bring temps down below freezing for most, and mid to upper 20s across the high terrain in western MA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow. The core of the cold pool moves quickly offshore bringing 500mb temps back towards -28C. With the mid to upper level warming, 700mb - 500mb lapse rates have become very meager around 4 to 6 C/km. This combined with a mid-level ridge building in should limit shower chances in the afternoon with peak diurnal heating. Still expecting diurnal cumulus to form again tomorrow afternoon. With the cold start and continued cold air advection, temperatures will only top the low to mid 40s. Winds turn gusty again tomorrow afternoon with westerly winds and a well mixed boundary layer. Peak wind gusts of 25-30mph is possible in the afternoon. Tomorrow night. Winds begin to turn southerly and diminish overnight as the pressure gradient briefly relaxes ahead of a surface low north of the Great Lakes. Skies look mostly cloudy due to mid/high level clouds out ahead of the surface low. Overnight lows look to drop near or below freezing again for most of the region with mid to upper 20s in the high terrain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... * Light rain and snow showers Wednesday night associated with shortwave digging into the region * Dry Thursday and Friday * Increasing chances for more substantial precipitation this weekend, though uncertainty in track of low pressure remains high Persistent amplified trough across the western CONUS and broad but shallow trough across the east continues to dominate the synoptic pattern through the the period. Deep digging shortwave and associated low pressure dives into southern New England late Wednesday bringing the chance for rain and snow showers overnight into Thursday. Tranquil but seasonable weather to end the work week before shower chances increase next weekend. There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast beyond day 3, with all global guidance providing different solutions, as discussed in more detail below. Wednesday through Friday... Previously mentioned shortwave digs into southern New England increasing rain and snow chances late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. While the shortwave appears at first to pack a punch, there will be limited moisture available to the forcing that will result in not much more than scattered showers/snow showers during the Wednesday night period as dewpoints drop from about a third of an inch to less than one quarter of an inch as flow shifts from the southwest to the west/west northwest overnight. Strong CAA will allow temperatures to drop below zero overnight into Thursday morning across the interior, which will allow for some novelty snowflakes that may yield a few tenths of an inch of accumulation across the terrain. Overall, ensembles hint at less than a tenth of an inch of QPF associated with this shortwave, so regardless of if any snow may accumulate, it will have little to no impact on the morning commute. Dry conditions work in for Thursday and Friday as PWATs drop to around -1.5 sigma of normal and PWATs continue to drop to around 0.1" by Friday. Thus, expecting a generally sunny period Thursday into early Friday ahead of our next potential precip maker. Seasonable to seasonably chilly temperatures expected. With very low dewpoints, potentially dropping below 0F by Friday, renewed fire weather concerns will develop on Thursday as gusty west winds redevelop; concerns will be less Friday as high pressure allows winds to go near calm for the better part of the daylight hours. Saturday and Sunday... There remains pretty considerable uncertainty between deterministic guidance regarding precipitation this weekend, with the 12Z GFS indicating a pretty robust inland runner will impact SNE on Saturday. The ECWMF and Canadian provide two completely different scenarios, with the ECMWF indicating scattered showers, and the CMC diagnosing a south of the benchmark low that will initiate showers across eastern MA and CT. For now, we continue to rely on the ensembles that paint a broad picture of rain chances Saturday and Saturday night with support of between a quarter and an inch of rain over the period. Depending on the existence and track of the low, there is a possibility of some mixed precipitation across the high terrain, but not placing much weight in that potential at this time as we continue to try to hone in on the potential for a storm. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Gusty winds drop off across the interior but remain sustained WNW at 5 to 15 knots. Gusty winds pick up over the Cape and the Islands overnight, with gusts to 20-25kt possible. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Another round of mid level CU with bases of 5-8 kft. Tuesday Night...High Confidence VFR. Decreasing winds turning south KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty WNW winds KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty west winds Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: Moderate Confidence Marginal small craft criteria gusts overnight for both the inner and outer waters. Seas remain 2-4 feet. Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence Continued marginal small craft conditions with gusts near 25 knots esspically for the southern waters. Seas increase to 4-6 feet. Tomorrow night: High Confidence Winds turn SW overnight, but remain gusty below 25 knots. Seas of 3-5 feet. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we have held off on issuing another SPS for elevated fire weather concerns, but may be reassessed overnight. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173155 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with relaxing winds out of the north. Winds will become light out of the west during the afternoon tomorrow. BB/03 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region, moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low 30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region, however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While a broad upper trof over the interior eastern states gradually moves off into the western Atlantic, a well defined shortwave trof near the 4 Corners region advances across the south central states to near the lower Mississippi River valley by late Thursday night. A dome of cool and dry surface high pressure will be over the area Tuesday night then shifts off to the east, with a surface low expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Thursday then move to the east central Gulf Thursday night. Very dry deep layer air over the area steadily improves through Thursday, and as the surface low passes south of the area will have chance pops for the forecast area Thursday night. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast, and with light winds and clear skies, frost development is likely over interior areas. Highs on Wednesday will be around 70, then lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then lows Thursday night range from the upper 40s inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday night through Thursday night. /29 LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A shortwave trof near the lower Mississippi River lifts off into the northeast states Friday night and becomes absorbed into a larger scale upper trof. A surface low over the east central Gulf early Friday morning lifts up along the East Coast Friday night into Saturday, and in the process this pattern ushers much drier air into the forecast area. Will have slight chance to chance pops Friday morning over the forecast area which trends to dry conditions areawide by early Friday evening. Dry conditions then follow for the area through Sunday night. A return flow is established over the area on Sunday and ushers much improved moisture into the area through Monday as the next weather system advances into the central states. Will have slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast for much of the area on Monday. /29 MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A strong northerly flow continues through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones through Tuesday morning. Winds quickly subside throughout the day on Tuesday, with light and variable winds expected during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east, returns for late week before turning back to northerly by the weekend. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 33 61 40 70 47 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Pensacola 39 60 43 68 49 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Destin 42 60 47 67 52 70 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Evergreen 32 61 34 72 43 73 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 Waynesboro 30 61 34 70 44 68 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Camden 30 59 34 70 44 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 Crestview 32 62 35 71 43 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>636-650- 655-670-675. && $$ |
#1173154 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining. Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV. Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The latest satellite and radar imagery depict overcast skies and only light drizzle/rain near KHRL and KBRO. Precipitation should come to an end within the next hour or so at the terminals, resulting in rain-free conditions through the remainder of the period. The latest observations report VFR across all of Deep South Texas, and these trends should continue through early Tuesday afternoon. High res guidance indicates there is a potential for MVFR ceilings after 18Z as low level southerly to southeasterly flow returns. Otherwise, breezy north winds will subside by 01-02Z this evening as the pressure gradient weakens and gradually shift to the east tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return. Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 62 69 63 73 / 10 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 59 71 59 75 / 10 10 0 20 MCALLEN 59 71 61 76 / 10 10 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 69 59 75 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 68 64 70 / 10 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 69 61 73 / 10 10 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ |
#1173153 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 721 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area Friday and Saturday, before high pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: A short-wave trough will be swinging through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region during the course of the evening and off the coast overnight. Strongest larger scale forcing for ascent will be well to our north, although with so much dry air there won`t be any rainfall across our region. The main issue for us will be a period of gustier winds and decent cold advection as a large of high pressure (across the central CONUS today) expands into the Gulf Coast and southeast CONUS in the wake of the trough. Tightening pressure gradient (4-5 millibars across the CWA later this evening into the overnight) will lead to a period of gustier winds during that time with gusts of 25 to 30 mph anticipated across the region. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Moultrie. Winds will be tapering off some through the overnight hours as cold advection slows down. Temperature-wise: Strong cold advection drives the 850 mb temps down into the -2C to -4C range by morning. This is far below normal, which should be around 8.5C to 8.7C. Along with diminishing winds and clearing skies, lows will drop through the 30s for all areas away from the coast with the coldest readings well inland. Persistent winds and dry incoming air mass will limit frost development to no more than maybe a little patchy coverage late near the US-301 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aloft, a large trough will pivot offshore Tuesday, shifting further away from the region while a zonal flow takes place across the Southeast United States through mid-week. At the sfc, high pressure across the South-central United States will extend east across Gulf Coast states and Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday, before a cold front arrives from the north/northwest by early Thursday. Conditions will remain dry locally through the middle of the week while a west-northwest downslope wind prevails along the eastern edge of the high centered to our west, even as the cold front pushes into the local area by early Thursday. Despite ample sfc heating under clear skies, temps will struggle to warm significantly on Tuesday while weak cold air advection wanes across the region. In general, high temps should only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s (warmest across southeast Georgia). Although temps are cooler during peak heating, dry air should lead to afternoon RH values between 20- 25% away from the coast Tuesday afternoon. Sfc winds are expected to remain below 10 mph though, so fire wx concerns should be limited. Sfc winds should slowly turn southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, offsetting some radiational cooling at night and resulting in airmass modification on Wednesday ahead of an arriving cold front. In general, Tuesday night lows should dip into the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to mid-upper 40s near the coast. On Wednesday, high temps should peak in the lower 70s with sunny conditions in place. Guidance indicates a dry cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night, likely becoming positioned along or just south of the local area by daybreak Thursday. Despite northerly winds post fropa, sfc temps should peak in the lower 70s under partly sunny skies in advance of a low pressure system developing and shifting eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico heading into late week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. An upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast United States early Friday through early Saturday, forcing an area of low pressure across the northeast Gulf to possibly strengthen while tracking over/near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWATs should increase to around 1.25 inches as the system nears, and with strong isentropic ascent and a lingering front across the area, should promote showers to develop locally Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers are now forecast to occur for most areas Friday and Friday evening, before precip activity trends offshore with the sfc low pulling away Saturday. Some guidance suggests some modest instability developing near the coast and offshore as the low tracks near the region, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast. The aforementioned low should continue to depart the region late weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning into early afternoon, precip chances should become confined to the coastal waters by Saturday evening. Dry conditions should then prevail Sunday with high pressure in place. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through 00Z Wednesday. Gusty NW winds peaking around 25 kt or so much of tonight, will diminish to around 10 kt by 08-10Z Tuesday, as cold advection diminishes and the gradient slackens some. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through Thursday. Flight restrictions are possible at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals Thursday night into Friday as showers/low clouds develop with a passing low pressure system. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building into the region tonight will lead to a period of gusty northwesterly winds later this evening into the overnight hours. Gale force gusts are anticipated in all coastal waters outside of Charleston Harbor...Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Harbor. Seas will build this evening and peak during the early overnight hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions will improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston County waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is then expected to pass near/off the Southeast Coast Friday into Saturday, likely contributing to deteriorating marine conditions across local waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most waters, but the track/strength of the low pressure system will play a large role in overall impacts along the Southeast Coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173152 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:26 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 721 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure will build from the northwest through the night, with a trend toward clear skies. Due to the gradient between the exiting front and building high, a surge of winds will move south across the region beginning this evening, and lasting through around sunrise. The strongest winds will be along the coast. Temperatures will fall off sharply Tonight, with lows ranging from the mid 30s over inland SE GA, to the lower 40s over coastal NE FL. Frost is not expected due to the winds. However, wind chills values will drop below freezing across most inland areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly mild winds persisting through Wednesday. There is a possibility for frost formation early Wednesday morning for some areas however conditions for development are borderline so confidence at this time is low. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and rising into the lower 70s Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly rise from out of the upper 30s up into the mid 40s Wednesday night going into early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The influence of high pressure will diminish and move off to the east on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing on Friday as instability associated with a low pressure system traveling across the Gulf of Mexico and then being followed by a dry front bringing high pressure conditions over the forecast area by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop to be slightly below the seasonal average by the end of the week but will return to normal levels by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Skies will clear Tonight, so VFR conditions will prevail this period. A surge of winds will move across the area this evening into the overnight, with the strongest winds along the coast. These gusty winds will diminish toward sunrise. Have used variable winds in the later period of this forecast, as the winds become fairly light. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move across the area today with scattered to numerous showers through the afternoon and into the evening. In the wake of the cold front, a rapid increase in northwest to north winds is expected tonight and will support gale force conditions with a gale warning is now in effect. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance arrives Thursday night which will increase winds and build seas again through Friday. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 36 62 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 42 61 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 40 63 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 44 61 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 41 66 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 42 66 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474. && $$ |
#1173151 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds) are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this evening - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs ranging in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night -Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning -Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays. However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening, allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts), so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with 500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves into the region Thursday night. Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions prevail through this TAF cycle. Northeasterly winds will continue to weaken through the evening and overnight hours. Winds will regain a east-southeast component by late Tuesday afternoon. There is a low chance of MVFR ceilings returning at LRD towards the end of the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20 Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173150 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:17 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 705 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area Friday and Saturday, before high pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: A short-wave trough will be swinging through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region during the course of the evening and off the coast overnight. Strongest larger scale forcing for ascent will be well to our north, although with so much dry air there won`t be any rainfall across our region. The main issue for us will be a period of gustier winds and decent cold advection as a large of high pressure (across the central CONUS today) expands into the Gulf Coast and southeast CONUS in the wake of the trough. Tightening pressure gradient (4-5 millibars across the CWA later this evening into the overnight) will lead to a period of gustier winds during that time with gusts of 25 to 30 mph anticipated across the region. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Moultrie. Winds will be tapering off some through the overnight hours as cold advection slows down. Temperature-wise: Strong cold advection drives the 850 mb temps down into the -2C to -4C range by morning. This is far below normal, which should be around 8.5C to 8.7C. Along with diminishing winds and clearing skies, lows will drop through the 30s for all areas away from the coast with the coldest readings well inland. Persistent winds and dry incoming air mass will limit frost development to no more than maybe a little patchy coverage late near the US-301 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aloft, a large trough will pivot offshore Tuesday, shifting further away from the region while a zonal flow takes place across the Southeast United States through mid-week. At the sfc, high pressure across the South-central United States will extend east across Gulf Coast states and Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday, before a cold front arrives from the north/northwest by early Thursday. Conditions will remain dry locally through the middle of the week while a west-northwest downslope wind prevails along the eastern edge of the high centered to our west, even as the cold front pushes into the local area by early Thursday. Despite ample sfc heating under clear skies, temps will struggle to warm significantly on Tuesday while weak cold air advection wanes across the region. In general, high temps should only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s (warmest across southeast Georgia). Although temps are cooler during peak heating, dry air should lead to afternoon RH values between 20- 25% away from the coast Tuesday afternoon. Sfc winds are expected to remain below 10 mph though, so fire wx concerns should be limited. Sfc winds should slowly turn southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, offsetting some radiational cooling at night and resulting in airmass modification on Wednesday ahead of an arriving cold front. In general, Tuesday night lows should dip into the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to mid-upper 40s near the coast. On Wednesday, high temps should peak in the lower 70s with sunny conditions in place. Guidance indicates a dry cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night, likely becoming positioned along or just south of the local area by daybreak Thursday. Despite northerly winds post fropa, sfc temps should peak in the lower 70s under partly sunny skies in advance of a low pressure system developing and shifting eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico heading into late week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. An upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast United States early Friday through early Saturday, forcing an area of low pressure across the northeast Gulf to possibly strengthen while tracking over/near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWATs should increase to around 1.25 inches as the system nears, and with strong isentropic ascent and a lingering front across the area, should promote showers to develop locally Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers are now forecast to occur for most areas Friday and Friday evening, before precip activity trends offshore with the sfc low pulling away Saturday. Some guidance suggests some modest instability developing near the coast and offshore as the low tracks near the region, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast. The aforementioned low should continue to depart the region late weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning into early afternoon, precip chances should become confined to the coastal waters by Saturday evening. Dry conditions should then prevail Sunday with high pressure in place. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through 00Z Wednesday. Gusty NW winds peaking around 25 kt or so much of tonight, will diminish to around 10 kt by 08-10Z Tuesday, as cold advection diminishes and the gradient slackens some. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night through Thursday. Flight restrictions are possible at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals Thursday night into Friday as showers/low clouds develop with a passing low pressure system. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building into the region tonight will lead to a period of gusty northwesterly winds later this evening into the overnight hours. Gale force gusts are anticipated in all coastal waters outside of Charleston Harbor...Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Harbor. Seas will build this evening and peak during the early overnight hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions will improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston County waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is then expected to pass near/off the Southeast Coast Friday into Saturday, likely contributing to deteriorating marine conditions across local waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most waters, but the track/strength of the low pressure system will play a large role in overall impacts along the Southeast Coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173149 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 528 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Just issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the immediate coast through midnight tonight. While we are coming out high tide, ~11s swells and Ekman transport (thanks for strong northeasterly winds) are pushing water up our coast. Tide gauges are not quite indicative of coastal flooding. However, webcams paint a different picture as water is nearing the beach access roads in a few spots. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this evening - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs ranging in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night -Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning -Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays. However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening, allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts), so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with 500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves into the region Thursday night. Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Have VFR conditions prevailing throughout this TAF period. Gusty northeast winds can be expected to continue throughout this afternoon diminishing this evening. Likewise have VCSH in TAF`s until this evening, then dry conditions expected. Some reduced VSBY`s or lower CIG`s may occur in and around storms but have high confidence in prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20 Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ345-442- 443-447. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173147 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 616 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 615 PM Monday...A vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL should be enough to support some light showers this evening and overnight, even though moisture is marginal with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. The area with the best chance to see light measurable precipitation amounts (>= 0.10") will be north of Highway 264 where deepest moisture and strongest forcing are forecast to occur. Will continue carrying 20-40% PoPs /highest north- lowest south/. Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through the FA 6-9Z. Clearing skies will occur after the trough passes. A brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA will also immediately follow the trough passage with a couple hour period of wind gusts to 30 kt expected. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and low level mixing persisting. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/... As of 615 PM Monday...VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected through the TAF period. Some light rain showers will be possible later this evening as an upper trough crosses the area. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Winds gusts will approach 30 kt for a couple of hours late tonight as the trough crosses, then winds will briefly subside toward dawn. Skies clear rapidly once the trough axis clears very late tonight. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts. LONG TERM /Tuesday Evening through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 615 PM Monday...Winds are currently E/NE`rly 10-15kts early this evening, becoming gusty NW`rly tonight as a trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts for the Gulf Stream. Will likely handle this with a MWS due to the fleeting nature of the stronger gusts. Otherwise, a SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, with seas forecast to subside to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 430 PM Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Tue - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173146 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:18 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Drier air and plenty of sunshine has allowed us to warm up today a bit more than was expected. Much of the area was in the upper 60s and low 70s today. PW is around 0.5-0.6 inches this afternoon thanks to the drier low-level air mentioned earlier. That is around the 25th percentile for today, showing how abnormally dry it is out there. The tightened pressure gradient behind the cold front that passed this morning has caused some gusty northerly winds this afternoon with the help of thermal mixing. The center of the surface high trailing the front will move over the area late tonight and into Tuesday morning. This will help back winds down for Tuesday. Although surface winds seems to back down, cold-air advection still seems apparent Tuesday morning, so lows were bumped down from NBM across the area. This led to freezing temperatures across much of SW MS and the adjacent Florida parishes. Freezing temps will only last for maybe and hour or two because as soon as the sun comes up, we will warm up pretty rapidly. You can thank even drier air for that because the drier the air, the more of a diurnal temperature curve you get. Thanks to much drier 850mb air, PW will drop all the way down to 0.2 inches tomorrow, rivaling the daily min for that day of 0.25 inches. Like was mentioned before, the aforementioned drier air on Tuesday will cause air to rapidly warm throughout the day. So, that coupled with the clear skies expected on Tuesday, cause the temps to get bumped up from NBM using a blend of NBM 75th and 90th percentile. The dry air and sunshine will also cause dewpoints to mix out efficiently at the surface, so NBM 10th percentile was used for that as well. This drops our RH to below 25 percent for most of the area, so be careful burning tomorrow if you do. Thankfully, since the center of the surface high will be overhead, winds will not be an issue for fires. By Wednesday, the surface high slides to the east and we get return flow setting up. This will moisten us back up where PW will get back above 0.5 inches, although still abnormally dry. This also allows temps to continue to get warmer and actually feel like Spring for the first day of spring! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday night) Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Thursday, another upper level system is expected to influence the area as a low moves through the southeast US, which will enhance rain chances Thursday into Friday morning. Southerly surface winds ahead of the frontal system will help to advect warmer and moist air into the region, enhancing instability as well. There are still quite a few uncertainties in the model consensus in the mid- range forecast, mostly surrounding the amount of rainfall expected. Some are drier while others show more of a potential for training. Our forecast has been trending a little drier to be more in line with growing trends in the forecast. PoPs are still in the 30-50% range. After the system moves through, ridging will dominate the upper level pattern and conditions will be dry Friday through the weekend. Northerly surface winds Friday through Saturday night will help keep conditions a little less humid, but highs will still be pushing 80 degrees this weekend. Sunday will be mostly a transition day for the atmosphere as surface winds shift back to southerly and moisture is reintroduced to the atmosphere. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The only impactful weather in this cycle is the gusty northerly winds behind the cold front that passed overnight last night. Expect winds to stay elevated until this evening before the atmosphere decouples. The gradient relaxes as the center of the surface high moves over the area, and winds will remain below impactful thresholds. Outside of that, VFR conditions will prevail for the whole period. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northerly winds behind the cold front has caused hazardous seas today through tomorrow morning. Once the center of the surface highs gets overhead, the winds significantly back down below impact thresholds, and benign conditions stick through the end of the week. There is another shot of rain Thursday with the next system, but there is still some uncertainty on timing and location of the rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 32 64 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 38 66 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 36 64 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 44 62 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 36 62 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 34 64 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039- 071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173145 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 445 PM AST Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface high pressure moving towards the eastern Atlantic will continue to promote breezy conditions across the islands. Dry and fair weather conditions will continue to persist until mid-week. However, an increase in shower frequency is expected from Wednesday onwards due to the arrival of a cold front and its associated frontal boundary. Warmer temperatures are anticipated this week as surface winds prevails from the southeast. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday Mostly clear skies prevailed across the local region today. Few clouds were seen streaming off the islands and over the Cordillera Central. However, little or none precipitation was observed. Warm temperatures were registered today across the islands. The Luis Munoz Marin Int. Airport in San Juan registered a maximum temperature of 91 degrees Fahrenheit, just 3 degrees below the record for today. Overall, temperatures remained in the upper 80s and low 90s across the coastal and urban areas of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Heat indices reached the mid 100s in the municipalities of north central Puerto Rico. Winds prevailed from the east southeast from 15 to 20 mph, with higher gusts. A surface high pressure continues to dominate the local weather promoting fair weather conditions. However, passing showers dragged by the trade winds cannot be ruled out. By Tuesday, as the surface high moves towards the eastern Atlantic winds will veer from the south southeast. Dry and fair weather conditions will persist with warmer-than-normal temperatures, especially across the north central portions of Puerto Rico and portions of St. Croix. Daytime temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s across the urban and coastal areas of the islands. Heat indices will stay above the 100s across these areas. From Wednesday onwards, an increase in moisture is expected due to the approach of a cold front and its associated frontal boundary. Therefore, expect an increase in the frequency of passing showers during the morning hours, followed by afternoon showers across the central and western portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some of this activity could lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 434 AM AST Mon Mar 18 2024/ A weak frontal boundary moving southeastward in the western Atlantic will begin to pass through the region on Thursday, causing a backing of the surface winds to more of a northeasterly direction and a noticeable increase of moisture content moving over the islands by Friday morning. This shifting of the winds and increase of precipitable water will bring a wetter pattern with scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning hours followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. On Friday, a surface low begins to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, migrating into the western Atlantic as it moves along the eastern coastline of the US meanwhile displaying nor`easter characteristics. Eastward of this system a strong surface ridge will direct a moist easterly flow locally through Saturday which will continue the pattern of an abundance of passing showers with afternoon convection, with the heaviest rainfall over western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. By Sunday the potential nor`easter would of moved into the upper western Atlantic and a Rossby wave trough develops to the southwest, positioning north of the region by Monday morning. The presence of this will cause a veering in the surface winds to a southeasterly direction on Sunday, becoming southerly and variable Monday onward. During this time precipitable water values spike as this long wave pattern brings a moist airmass and unstable conditions over the eastern Caribbean. This may bring a significant increase of rainfall across the islands for multiple areas, however model guidance is subject to change so stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) ESE flow is prevailing over the local area with some sea breeze influences and winds of 8-18 kts with hir gusts--the strongest have been nr TJPS so far. Winds will bcm land breezes btwn 18/23-19/12Z then return to today`s flow. VFR conds to prevail but brief MVFR expected in NW PR btwn 18/18-21Z and again fm 19/18-21Z, not necessarily at TJBQ terminal. Max winds W 85-95 kts btwn FL400-470. && .MARINE... A broad surface high pressure moving into the central and eastern Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds through mid-week, resulting in choppy seas. Winds will slow down by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Breezy conditions will continue to promote a moderate rip current risk along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, the northern U.S. Virgin Islands, and St. Croix. The protected waters of west and southern Puerto Rico and Vieques remain under a low risk. The rip current risk is expected to remain moderate until mid-week, when the risk of rip currents becomes low across all the local beaches. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly. If you do not know how to swim, we advise you to stay out of the ocean. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
#1173144 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 444 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week, bringing with it fire weather concerns. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 410 PM Monday...Dry air advection continues with dewpoints in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the coastal plain. Winds are NW`rly 5-10kts, and 10-15kts for OBX. Highs today have been in the low-mid 60s, upper 50s OBX, with highest temps along the Crystal Coast. A sea breeze is creeping inland, with SE winds and dewpoints in the low-mid 40s behind in. The stout, vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL may be enough to support some showers this evening and tonight, but moisture is really lacking with low PWATs and a shallow moisture layer. However, a weak soundbreeze for Nern zones could create enough convergence and moisture pooling to spark some late afternoon/early evening showers. Continue carrying a slight chance for areas near Alligator River where soundbreeze(s) could converge and NOBX where the flow aloft would carry any showers that do pop up. Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through most of the FA overnight. Again, moisture is really lacking behind the SFC front and widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected but the mid and upper level dynamics can`t be ignored. Carry SChc- Chc PoPs through most of the overnight period with transit of the trough axis, best chance over the coast, particularly for NOBX where more moisture in the mid and low levels will be. Any rain chances push offshore quickly in the early morning hours as the trough axis reaches the coast around sunrise. Max QPF overnight around a tenth of an in. Zones on the W of the trough axis will experience a more typical "post cold front" environment with a brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and 10+kt winds persisting. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 4 PM Monday...Tuesday morning the high pressure will be building in from the west, with NW flow continuing to bring drier air to ENC. We have an Increased Fire Danger SPS in effect for much of mainland ENC. See FWF or FIRE WEATHER section of the AFD for more information. Clear skies and highs in the mid 50s Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday night through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Afternoon/... As of 4 PM Monday...VFR flight cats forecast through the TAF period, with a low chance of brief MVFR ceilings tonight with isolated to scattered showers. Werly winds this afternoon becoming breezy NWerly overnight MON night. Another rd of precip possible late this evening into the overnight period as the trough axis crosses over the area and pushes offshore Tues morning. Best chance for showers over the immediate coast so have only included VCSH for EWN and OAJ to cover precip probability. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have kept a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Skies clear rapidly and winds lay down some once the trough axis clears in the morning Tuesday. Tuesday will bring clear skies and NW winds gusting to 20kts. LONG TERM /Tuesday Evening through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Wed with gusts 15-25 kt. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/... As of 415 PM Monday...Winds are currently E/NE`rly 10-15kts this afternoon, becoming gusty NW`rly tonight as a trough passes through. Waters and sounds could see occasional gusts approaching 35kts, with brief gusts up to 40kts for the Gulf Stream. Will likely handle this with a MWS due to the fleeting nature of the stronger gusts. Otherwise, a SCA is in place for all waters tonight, ending in the morning Tuesday. Seas are 2-4 ft, approaching 6ft for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. Waves will briefly diminish to start the night, before stronger winds from the approaching trough raise seas to 4-7ft, falling to 2-5ft by Tuesday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 430 PM Mon...Elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Increased Fire Danger SPS has been issued for Tuesday. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Tue - *INCREASED FIRE DANGER* min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts 20-25 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Thu - Min RH values 20-25% and N winds 5-10 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173143 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the period as an amplified upper-level longwave trough lifts into the western Atlantic and an upper ridge builds over the central US. At the surface, strong high pressure continues building into the region, moving directly overhead on Tuesday. This high, along with the deep northwesterly flow aloft will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to continue advecting in from the north. With clear skies and decreasing winds due to the high moving overhead, efficient radiational cooling will allow for lows to drop into low 30s for areas north of I-10 and mid to upper 30s for areas closer to the coast. A Freeze Warning is in effect tonight for all inland counties, as well as northern portions of Mobile and Baldwin counties. Frost may also be seen across the region, however, with a 10 to 15 degree dew point depression, overall confidence in frost development is rather low, although if dew points right at the surface remain rather elevated, then coverage of a light frost could be widespread. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. A low risk of rip currents will be in place through the period. /96 && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While a broad upper trof over the interior eastern states gradually moves off into the western Atlantic, a well defined shortwave trof near the 4 Corners region advances across the south central states to near the lower Mississippi River valley by late Thursday night. A dome of cool and dry surface high pressure will be over the area Tuesday night then shifts off to the east, with a surface low expected to develop over the northwest Gulf on Thursday then move to the east central Gulf Thursday night. Very dry deep layer air over the area steadily improves through Thursday, and as the surface low passes south of the area will have chance pops for the forecast area Thursday night. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 30s inland to the lower 40s at the coast, and with light winds and clear skies, frost development is likely over interior areas. Highs on Wednesday will be around 70, then lows Wednesday night will range from the lower 40s inland to the upper 40s at the coast. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, then lows Thursday night range from the upper 40s inland to the mid 50s at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is expected Tuesday night through Thursday night. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Monday) Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A shortwave trof near the lower Mississippi River lifts off into the northeast states Friday night and becomes absorbed into a larger scale upper trof. A surface low over the east central Gulf early Friday morning lifts up along the East Coast Friday night into Saturday, and in the process this pattern ushers much drier air into the forecast area. Will have slight chance to chance pops Friday morning over the forecast area which trends to dry conditions areawide by early Friday evening. Dry conditions then follow for the area through Sunday night. A return flow is established over the area on Sunday and ushers much improved moisture into the area through Monday as the next weather system advances into the central states. Will have slight chance to chance pops return to the forecast for much of the area on Monday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A strong northerly flow continues through Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine zones through Tuesday morning. Winds quickly subside throughout the day on Tuesday, with light and variable winds expected during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east, returns for late week before turning back to northerly by the weekend. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 33 61 40 70 47 69 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Pensacola 39 60 43 68 49 68 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Destin 42 60 47 67 52 70 57 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 30 Evergreen 32 61 34 72 43 73 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 Waynesboro 30 61 34 70 44 68 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Camden 30 59 34 70 44 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 20 Crestview 32 62 35 71 43 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261- 262. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076- 078-079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636. && $$ |
#1173142 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 336 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Showers/thunderstorms remain possible (low <20% chance) into this evening - Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the overnight hours Showers and a few thunderstorms have been persistent across our CWA today as a 700 mb shortwave over the area interacts with above normal PWAT`s. Activity should wane over the next few hours as drier air filters into the region from a reinforcing surge of high pressure north of us. Have silent PoP`s from this evening through tomorrow, with a small window tomorrow morning with a very low chance for some showers over the Coastal Plains as a smaller disturbance moves across South Texas. Confidence is low for shower activity tomorrow as lack of moisture will be the limiting factor. Afternoon temperatures today should top out in the mid 60s to low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. Overnight expect lows to dip into the low to mid 50s across much of the region with tomorrows highs ranging in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Thunderstorms medium chance (40-50%) Wednesday night -Thunderstorms High chance (60-80%) Thursday morning -Sea Fog low to medium chance (30-50% <5 SM) Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...High pressure centered over the Florida Gulf Coast will continue with the onshore flow for Wednesday with the around 1.00" PWAT values expected through the day. Scattered showers are expected to develop along the Coastal Bend from the south, as a 500 mb shortwave interacts with the onshore flow and the moisture. We are fairly capped so the vertical ascent looks to be limited, however, with a 30 knot LLJ showers will form. With the cap over the region, sea fog is possible as the dewpoints advect north into the southern nearshore waters and Bays. However, The restriction of visibility looks to be limited with the NBM numbers of 30-50% that the vis will be below 5 miles. The dewpoints just start to peak to about the upper 60s, which is around the water temperatures. The cap looks to erode in the evening, allowing for better CAPE values, although, we lose the LLJ (20kts), so will expect scattered thunderstorms overnight, especially with 500 mb low, that has been stuck in Arizona, moves through the Panhandle and into Oklahoma, by Thursday morning. As the trough axis move through South Texas, the rain is expected to clear from West to East and be out of the Coastal Bend around 1 pm. Dry air then moves into the region Thursday night. Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...Thursday night through Monday, the sfc high pressure builds into the region and the 500 mb heights build back a bit. So will expect that the chances for rain would be minimal through the extended period. However, Sunday, the high moves east bringing back the onshore flow, and a sfc low begins to spin up in Colorado and as it moves east, the chance for rain and probably thunderstorms begins to increase again. However, the chance pops are north of the forecast area. Winds do increase in the offshore waters with the tightening pressure gradient increasing the risk of SCEC or even SCA by Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Have VFR conditions prevailing throughout this TAF period. Gusty northeast winds can be expected to continue throughout this afternoon diminishing this evening. Likewise have VCSH in TAF`s until this evening, then dry conditions expected. Some reduced VSBY`s or lower CIG`s may occur in and around storms but have high confidence in prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through early morning with some occasional gusts to Gale. Isolated shower activity is expected to taper off this evening. Very Strong northeast flow is expected to continue through late tonight then becomes moderate tomorrow morning followed by flow veering onshore and weakening to weak levels tomorrow night. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (30-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 56 66 58 72 / 0 20 0 20 Victoria 48 63 52 70 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 56 67 58 75 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 53 65 54 72 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 55 68 58 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 53 64 54 72 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 54 65 56 71 / 0 10 0 20 Navy Corpus 59 69 61 73 / 0 20 0 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173141 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 422 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... ...Marginal Risk of Severe Storms This Afternoon... ...Much Cooler Temperatures Forecast Behind The Cold Front Tuesday Into Wednesday... ...Low Pressure System Late Week To Bring Increased Rain Chances... Currently-Tuesday... Current local radar imagery shows scattered showers with isolated lighting storms ahead of a cold front across east central Florida. So far the strongest convection has remained over Lake and Volusia counties, as well as over the local Atlantic waters. Analysis charts show the cold front across the northern waters and northern Brevard county stretching from low pressure over the western Atlantic adjacent to the MidAtlantic US. Current temperatures sit in the mid 70s north of the front and the mid to upper 80s to the south with dew points in the mid 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers with isolated to scattered lighting storms are forecast to continue to develop along and ahead of the cold front and move east across central Florida through this evening. Rain and storm chances dwindle into the late evening hours with isolated showers and lightning storms forecast along and to the south of Titusville near the coast before drying out overnight. Isolated strong storms through this evening will be capable of wind gusts up to 50-60mph, hail up to 1-1.75" in diameter, and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Outside of gusty showers/lighting storms, wind gusts up to 25-30mph are forecast through early Tuesday morning. A very low threat exists for a tornado (2-4%) along and south of Titusville near the coast. Much cooler air will filter in behind the cold front overnight with lows expected to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south. Wind chill values will drop into the upper 30s to mid 40s along and north of I-4 early Tuesday morning. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the low to upper 60s with the upper 60s to low 70s across the Treasure Coast to Lake Okeechobee region under sunny skies. Tue Night-Wed Night...Nearly zonal flow aloft through the period as subtle pieces of energy at 500 mb traverse the peninsula. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west with a weak pressure gradient in place and lighter/variable winds. Conditions will be cooler and drier. Under MClear skies, overnight temps Tue into Wed morning will range in the L40s north/west of I-4 with M-U40s further southward toward Lake Okeechobee, and L-M50s for the immediate south Brevard/Treasure coasts. Warming trend for Wed with L-M70s, except U70s near Lake Okeechobee. Still cool but warmer for Wed overnight, with U40s north of I-4 and generally L-M50s elsewhere, except U50s to L60s for barrier islands and coastal St. Lucie and Martin counties. Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified... Thu-Sat...Dry conditions prevail through the afternoon on Thu, despite a breakdown of the ridge over the southern states. A shortwave will then dig through the Deep South, generating a low pressure system over the GOMEX. Models are in good agreement that this low will somewhere over the Florida peninsula Fri into Fri night. However, there are discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF on exactly where the crossing takes place. The GFS takes a northerly track, while the Euro passes southward. Regardless, deeper moisture looks to return to east central Florida beginning Thu night, with PWATs increasing to up to 1.6". While CAPE looks to be limited, have included a mention for a slight chance of lightning storms Fri into Fri evening. Instead, widespread rainfall, with some locally heavy rainfall possible, looks to be the main threat. PoPs Thu night have fallen to 30-40%, with Fri`s chances up to 70-80%, with the most rainfall occurring during the daytime hours on Fri. High cloud cover and precip keeps highs near-normal both days, in the M-U70s, with some L80s across the interior. Overnight lows in the U50s to L60s. Models diverge Sat as the GFS rapidly takes the low northeastward along a cold front, ingesting it into a stronger low pressure over southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has the low linger along the Carolina coastline. Both solutions would lead to northerly flow, though wind speeds vary. Scattered showers persist Sat as the low pulls away from shore, with lingering PoPs over the waters Sat night, occasionally drifting onshore the Treasure Coast. Temps remain near-normal Sat. Sun-Mon...Model differences persist Sun into early next week, as the GFS suggests a trough over the eastern US, while the ECMWF retrogrades the earlier low closer to the Florida coast, where it deepens significantly. Both solutions maintain elevated winds over the Atlc waters and along the coast. However, the difference in wind direction (onshore for the GFS and parallel to shore for the ECMWF) will make the difference for coastal/marine hazards. Given the differences, went with the NBM solution for the current forecast, which more closely resembles the GFS. Some lingering showers possible Sun over the Atlc and along the coast south of the Cape, then drier on Mon, though this is low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Current-Tonight (modified previous discussion)... Boating conditions will quickly become poor to hazardous tonight behind a cold front. Scattered showers with isolated lightning storms are forecast to remain possible (PoPs ~60-80%) through the evening hours which will be capable of wind gusts up to 50-60mph, hail to 1-1.75" in diameter, occasional to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Rain and storm chances will dwindle overnight with mostly dry conditions after midnight. West to northwest winds around 10-15kts will increase into the overnight at 20-30kts with occasional gusts to 35-40kts over the offshore waters (20-60nm), as well as nearshore Volusia county. Winds will east into Tuesday afternoon at 12-18kts from the north. Seas at 1-2ft nearshore and 3-5ft offshore are forecast to build overnight to 4-7ft nearshore and up to 8-10ft offshore and over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters. Seas will then reduce to 2-4ft nearshore and 5-8ft offshore, as well as over the nearshore Treasure Coast waters into Tuesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect overnight. Previous Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified... Tue-Wed...NRLY winds 20-25 kts early Tue decrease through the day, then become light/variable Tue night into Wed, as high pressure builds into the southern U.S. However, poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue, as seas will be slow to subside. Seas 7-10 ft Tue morning become 3-4 ft near shore north of Sebastian Inlet by the evening, but remain up to 6-8 ft in the Gulf Stream. Will see conditions improve by Wed afternoon, as seas fall to 2-4 ft. Conditions to remain dry. Thu-Fri...High pressure breaks down on Thu, as a shortwave trough digs through the southern U.S. This feature is forecast to develop a low pressure system over the GOMEX, which will then cross the Florida peninsula through late week. Model discrepancies exist on the placement of this low. However, increasing shower chances, with a few offshore-moving lightning storms are expected Thu night into Fri. Onshore flow around 8-12 kts Thu veers SERLY late Thu night and increases to 15-20 kts. Then, winds become southerly at 16-22 kts Fri. Seas 1-2 ft building to 4-5 ft, with up to 6 ft well offshore, by late Fri afternoon. Seas up to 7 ft forecast offshore Fri night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 422 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tue-Thu...Modified...Very dry conditions through mid-week, as post- frontal air leads to min RH values around 45% or lower Tue area-wide and as low as the upper 20%s across the interior. This will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions when combined with northerly winds 10-15 mph, and up to 15-20 mph along the coast, Tue morning. But, will see winds decrease by Tue aftn. Generally Good to Very Good dispersion in the morning will become Fair to Generally Good through the day. Further drying is then forecast Wed, with widespread min RHs in the mid to upper 20%s, while coastal areas south of the Cape remain in the mid to upper 30%s. However, winds become light, as high pressure builds into the area. Wind directions will be variable, but a sea breeze is possible during the afternoon. Lighter winds will lead to Poor to Fair dispersion. Will see some improvement Thu, though min RH 30-45% is still forecast, with the driest conditions inland. Winds increase once again, becoming easterly around 8-12 mph in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 422 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 TAFs start off with VCTS through 22-00Z, as well as TEMPO TSRA and MVFR ceiling groups through 21/22Z as a cold front sags east- southeast across central Florida. West to southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 18-24kts will veer northwest behind the front into the late evening and early overnight, before easing into Tuesday afternoon at 8-15kts. Isolated strong to severe storms are forecast through this evening with the threat diminishing into the late evening hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 48 62 44 / 70 10 0 0 MCO 83 51 67 47 / 70 10 0 0 MLB 85 54 66 50 / 80 20 0 0 VRB 86 59 69 50 / 60 20 0 0 LEE 79 47 67 45 / 80 10 0 0 SFB 81 49 66 44 / 70 10 0 0 ORL 82 51 67 48 / 70 10 0 0 FPR 86 58 69 49 / 60 20 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
#1173140 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 301 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 I can finally write a relatively uneventful short term discussion! Many of you have seen the sunshine today. It has generally been a breezy, cool to mild day with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Mid/upper level Pacific moisture along with disturbances embedded in the SW flow aloft are throwing some cloud cover back into the picture this afternoon. The radar actually depicts the approach of widely scattered showers. However, the LL atmosphere is extremely dry. Sfc dew points have fallen well down into the 30s (20s in some places). Could a few rain drops make it to the ground? Perhaps. But surface observations show that most of this rain is not reaching the ground. So expect the afternoon to remain dry in most communities. A ~1032 MB sfc high over the central plains will push into Texas tonight, relaxing the pressure gradient and decreasing our winds this evening into the overnight. Meanwhile, the aforementioned clouds are expected to decrease in coverage overnight, especially over our northern counties. Temperatures will be rather chilly with overnight lows ranging from the mid/upper 30s across our northern counties to low/mid 40s along the I-10 corridor to around 50 at the coast. As high pressure begins its eastward drift on Tuesday, light winds will begin to veer eastward and eventually southeastward. Meanwhile, UL SW flow will continue to supply Pacific moisture to the upper portions of our atmosphere, resulting in increased cloudiness. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the low/mid 60s. The clouds coupled with light southeast flow from the Gulf should prevent temperatures from falling as much Tuesday night, with lows generally in the 50s (40s in our northern / northeast counties). Self && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The surface high pressure that was over the area on Tuesday has slid to the east on Wednesday ushering in moist southeasterly flow across SE Texas. Meanwhile, an upper level low will be swinging through the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains on Wednesday. This system will start to bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into our area, mainly west of I-45. SPC has placed parts of Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms for Wednesday night - though conditions look more favorable further west towards Hill Country. If an isolated strong to severe storm does form in our northwesterly area, the hail would be the main concern. Showers and thunderstorm activity will increase across the area on Thursday as a coastal low begins to develop in the NW Gulf with areas along the coast having the highest coverage. The heaviest rainfall from this system is looking to set up offshore, but can`t out rule some locally heavy rainfall along the coast leading to minor street ponding. WPC has placed the coastal areas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Thursday. The bulk of the rainfall will exit to the east by Thursday afternoon, but we could still see some isolated showers through Friday morning as the upper level low continues to swing through. There will be a gradual warmup through the long term with high temperatures on Wednesday expected to be in the upper 60s to low 70s, then low to mid 70s Thursday and Friday. Weak ridging aloft but southeasterly flow at the surface will lead to a rather pleasant weekend with mostly clear skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Fowler && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northeast winds will decline this evening into tonight. Clouds may increase for a time this afternoon before decreasing tonight. Winds tomorrow are expected to become more easterly with clouds increasing once again. However, cigs are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Moderate to strong offshore flow following yesterday`s cold front will persist into this evening for the Bays and into tonight for the Gulf waters. Have been seeing gusts to 30 to 35kt at BOY019 the past few hours with seas up to 10ft reported. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until 4pm for the Bays and then 10pm for the Gulf Waters, but may need to be extended a few hours depending on how quick conditions improve. Nevertheless, small craft will need to at least exercise caution into Tuesday morning. Onshore flow resumes Tuesday night and will continue through Thursday. Moisture will be increasing with the onshore flow, and there is a low chance of some patchy fog developing Wednesday night. A coastal low will be developing in the western Gulf on Thursday causing widespread showers and thunderstorms in the coastal waters Thursday through Thursday night. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near the coastal low. Brief period of onshore flow is expected Friday morning in the wake of the departing coastal low, but then light onshore flow returns for the weekend with mostly clear skies. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 64 50 67 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 44 67 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 53 61 56 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
#1173139 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 334 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below. However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50% chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas. Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside. Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL counties. Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid to upper 60s across our FL counties. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front. Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday high temps. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features, rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front pushing through the area will continue to erode lower clouds across all sites with KVLD likely holding onto MVFR CIG`s for the next hour or so. Following this, winds will shift to northerly at all sites with clear skies through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Cold front continues to move south of the region and as another wave moves through tonight, expect an increase in northerly winds across the area which will bring solid advisory level conditions with 20 to 30 knot winds into early Tuesday. A brief gust to low- end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin to reduce during the afternoon on Tuesday and conditions will drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely as this system moves through. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture from the recent rains. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non- concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However, uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770- 772. && $$ |
#1173138 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 332 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather and below normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday night. Milder and continued dry through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows the old frontal boundary well offshore, while weak low pressure lingers across Appalachia and the Piedmont. The frontal passage from earlier this morning has allowed for very dry air to settle at the surface. Dewpoints this morning were in the mid 50s, and have now dropped into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Ironically enough, clouds aloft have filled in over the last couple of hours, as a potent shortwave aloft starts to drop into the area from the northwest. Said shortwave will quickly sweep through the area tonight. Cloud cover will continue to thicken aloft, despite the very dry air at the surface. There`s a subtle hint of moisture convergence north of Cape Fear after 10 PM, and the atmosphere will try to squeeze out whatever water it can. However, the saturation is very thin, lingering at around 700mb. Surface dewpoints continue to plummet into the lower 20s, so whatever falls out of the cloud may dry out before it hits the surface ("virga" being the technical term for that phenomena). Some folks may see a couple sprinkles at best before 2 AM tonight across the coastal regions of southeast NC. Elsewhere, lows tonight bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30s. The temperatures meet Frost Advisory criteria inland, but tonight looks looks much too dry and windy to actually issue one. Probabilistic guidance suggests a modest chance (30-50%) of temperatures actually near or even just below freezing across certain parts of Darlington and Marlboro Counties. I`m not so confident on that idea, given the elevated winds, and if anybody does hit the freezing mark, it probably would only be for an hour or so. Therefore, holding off on a Freeze Warning tonight. Plenty of sunshine on the way for Tuesday, but it`ll be on the chilly side, with high pressure from the Midwest having an influence. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 50s in what looks to be the coolest day of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Not much of note this period with the region under the influence of weak sfc high pressure, allowing for continued dry weather over the local area. Some moderation of temps noted as thicknesses increase...highs in the 60s/70s unlike the 50s forecasted for Tuesday. A weak front moving through Wednesday night will lead to slightly cooler temps Thursday than Wednesday, but still near normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Focus in the long term period will be on developing Gulf of Mexico sfc low pressure tracking northeastward. In general guidance seems a bit more progressive with this southern stream system now, however there remains large differences in timing. Enough confidence to retain likely PoPs for Friday and Friday night, with the rain moderate to heavy at times and a slight chance of thunder. A drying trend ensues over the weekend, but it remains unclear how long the rain will linger especially on Saturday should the mid-level trough slow down. Temps fairly close to normal for late March this period. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. NW winds near 10 kts will gradually become more westerly through today. A disturbance moving over the area this evening into tonight will bring gusty NW winds near 20-25 kts. Low chances for showers at KILM at the same time but low confidence so will let the next put them in if confidence is higher. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday...Pressure gradient increases tonight with an upper level system moving through, bringing stiff northwesterly winds into the fold. These winds will initiate a Small Craft Advisory at 11 PM EDT tonight, going through noon EDT Tuesday. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few gusts hit gale criteria tonight, particularly over the northeast SC coastal waters, but it`s not quite consistent enough to upgrade these to a Gale Warning at this time. These offshore winds cause wind waves to poke up at 3-4ft. After the upper level disturbance moves through, winds eventually decrease to 10-15kts from the southwest by Tuesday afternoon. Seas decrease to 1-2ft. Tuesday Night through Saturday...Couple more SCA headlines expected this period. First is Tuesday night as the pressure gradient increases in SW flow ahead of the next weak front. Somewhat improving conditions then for Wednesday and Thursday, before winds and seas ramp up Friday into Saturday in association with developing low pressure sliding up the SE coast. By early Saturday expect seas up to 8-9 ft and winds gusting to ~25 kt. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173137 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 336 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area this evening into Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance moving along the front could produce a few showers over extreme southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into early Tuesday morning. Dry weather is then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... A trough aloft and weak surface cold front will move east and across the local area this evening and early tonight. There may be just enough lingering low-level moisture to touch off isolated showers for far SE VA and NE NC during this time (00-06Z). Otherwise, look for a clearing sky overnight and cooler conditions. Lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s coastal SE VA/NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Expecting wind gusts 20-25 mph, and up to 30 mph lower MD Eastern Shore. Given these winds and expected low RH tomorrow afternoon, wildfire danger will be elevated. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the mi/upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Wed will also be breezy to windy with continued low RH. Wildfire danger will again be elevated. Highs will range through the 60s on Wednesday. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. One more day of dry weather/low RH is expected on Thursday and wildfire danger will remain elevated. For details on fire weather conditions and headlines through Thursday, please see the fire weather section below. Highs will range from around 50 on the Eastern Shore to nr 60 in south-central VA. Winds will be lesser on Thursday, except still breezy on the Eastern Shore, under a mostly sunny sky. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... The next low pressure system will bring a chance of rain back to the area on Friday and possibly lingering into Saturday. The ECMWF lingers rain, at least along the coast all day Saturday, while the GFS/CMC solution is more progressive. At this time, fcst will show a compromise of these solutions, with the best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through early Sat. Will have lingering chance PoPs Sat aftn through Sat eve. Highs will range through the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. Highs in the 50s to low 60s next Monday. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 18z TAF period. A few showers will be possible this evening into early Tue morning over SE VA/NE NC, primarily in the 06-00z timeframe, but flight restrictions are not expected. Increasing NW or N winds expected again Tue morning. Outlook...VFR conditions will prevail from Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Winds this afternoon are generally from the N/NW at 10-15 kt. Winds have actually turned onshore across the srn waters, mainly S of Cape Charles Light and in the srn Chesapeake Bay. Seas are 2-4 ft (highest S) and waves 1-2 ft. Into this evening, the pressure gradient quickly tightens as a strong upper disturbance approaches from the W. This will allow for a strong surge of CAA this evening into tonight over all of the waters, with the potential for a period of gale-force gusts in the lower bay and offshore of VA Beach, especially between 4-9z. Gale warnings were raised for these areas, including at the mouth of the bay, from 2-11z Tue for NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts to ~35 kt. Small craft advisories have been issued for all other area waters through 17z Tue where winds quickly increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. The gale warning will also need to be replaced w/ a SCA after it expires. Seas increase to 3-6 ft during this period, with waves in the bay also increasing to 3-5 ft given the favorable N/NW fetch. Winds diminish some for Tue aftn and then shift to the W/SW, though they may remain gusty to ~20 kt. Another period of elevated SW winds are then expected Tue evening/overnight as another upper disturbance slides through. SCAs look likely for most of the waters for this event. And then for Wed aftn, deep mixing and higher 925 mb winds could lead to continuing SCAs in the bay and especially the rivers and Currituck Sound. A dry cold front passes S through the region Wed night, with a surge of NNW winds likely with SCAs again possible. It looks more benign to end the week with high pressure ridging down from the N. Complex fcst remains for the weekend with cyclogenesis to our S over the Gulf Stream. The GFS and ECMWF show significant discrepancies though have leaned toward a ECMWF/CMC solution which delays the strongest winds until Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Dry and breezy conditions are expected through Thursday. The combination of low humidity and gusty winds will increase the possibility of any fires burning out of control. The next chance for widespread wetting rain will not come until later Friday. After coordination with the state forestry agencies and surrounding NWS neighbors, we`ll hoist an Increased Fire Danger Statement for all our counties for Tuesday, save the MD Beaches and OBX Currituck. With winds expected to be stronger on Wednesday, we will likely be close to Red Flag Warning criteria for much of our VA counties. For that reason, will hoist a Fire Wx Watch for all of our VA counties except nearest the Ches Bay. Elsewhere, expecting another IFD Statement on Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MDZ021>024. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ012>017-030>032. VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092- 093-096-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635-650-652. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-656. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-636>638-654-658. && $$ |
#1173136 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 234 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The forecast remains of track. The Rex block pattern that has been highlighted the past few days will continue to hold through early Tuesday. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue to push some perturbations through Deep South Texas and with the continued weak overrunning will bring a continued to chance for drizzle, showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms through early evening. Tuesday, the Rex block begins to break down with drier conditions and more zonal flow returning to Deep South Texas. Temperatures will remain on the cool side through the remainder of the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to lows 60s and highs for Tuesday will only reach the mid 60s to low 70s with plenty of cloud cover remaining. Beach hazards continue into early Tuesday. A High Rip Current Risk and High Surf Advisory are in effect into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through this evening. This will lead to narrow beaches through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but remains confidence is low at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Latest Model suite remain in good agreement and consistency with the mid-level trough tracking across the Desert SW/Southern Plains Wed- Thursday. At the surface, cyclogenesis takes place near the lower Texas coast Wednesday with the low tracking steadily northeast Thursday. Flat ridge settles over Texas through the weekend with fair and seasonal weather in the works. A large synoptic scale trough moves into the western third of the country Sunday and early next week which may result in increasing southerly winds Increasing forcing and lift is expected later Wednesday and more so wednesday night as low level convergence from the developing surface low and frontogenesis combines with the approaching mid- level trough. Boundary layer warm advection and cooling aloft from the trough will quickly destabilize the atmosphere. Best rain chances are on tap for Wednesday night with a few stronger thunderstorms not out of equation. At this time, NBM pops have been bumped up to 30-50 percent while the GFS is 50-70 and ECMWF is 50-80 . QPF values are coming in at 0.10-0.50 inches which would only add to the beneficial rain as of late. The remainder of the forecast looks dry and fair with the exception to later Sunday and Monday when southerly winds return possibly becoming windy across the lower RGV. Temperatures to remain seasonal with near to slighlty above mid-late March averages of 80-84 degree. Another surge of high pressure settles to our east over the weekend slowing down the warming trend with the latest model guidance holding temperatures in the 80s with no 90s showing up until next Monday. Lows look to remain comfortable also near to slightly above the seasonal normal of 58-64 degree. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR condition will prevail into early evening with the continued chance for showers in the area. A few showers could be heavy and briefly lead to IFR conditions. As showers continue to stream northeast we could have some occasional cloud to ground lighting, primarily for BRO and HRL. Right now best timing looks to be over the next hour or two for any thunderstorm activity. Rain chances will likely end later this evening with VFR conditions returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tonight through Tuesday night...Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated through tonight due to elevated winds and seas behind a cold front that moved through on Sunday. Winds will decrease tonight, but seas will remain elevated for the offshore waters until early Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft advisories are currently in effect. By Tuesday night favorable conditions will return. Wednesday through Monday...Low pressure to develop near the lower Texas coast later Wednesday tracking northeast across the western Gulf Thursday. Unsettled weather along with variable SE-E light winds are expected Wednesday turning northwest at light to moderate speeds as the low tracks northeast Thursday. Weak ridge settles to the east of coastal waters Friday and Weekend with moderate southeast winds and a moderate sea. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 62 69 63 73 / 10 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 59 71 59 75 / 10 10 0 20 MCALLEN 59 71 61 76 / 10 10 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 69 59 75 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 68 64 70 / 10 10 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 69 61 73 / 10 10 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ |
#1173135 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:47 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 331 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area tonight and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area Friday and Saturday, before high pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Afternoon composite analysis reveals a fairly strong short-wave trough/1.5 PV anomaly diving through the Appalachians driving mid level height falls into the Carolinas and driving fairly cool air (-2C to -4C H8 air) into the region. Secondary surface boundary/dewpoint boundary appears to be passing through the region as of this writing ad surface dewpoints have dropped into the 40s for most areas. There is another band of thicker cloud cover pressing into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region along with several pockets of radar returns...all along the leading edge of the upper height falls and upper jet axis. However, no reports of precip across the region thus far owing to the degree of dry lower level air. Tonight: Aforementioned short-wave trough will be swinging through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region during the course of the evening and off the coast overnight. Strongest larger scale forcing for ascent will be well to our north, although again I`m not anticipating much in the way of precip even through the Mid Atlantic. Bigger issue for us will be a period of gustier winds and decent cold advection as a large of high pressure (across the central CONUS today) expands into the Gulf Coast and southeast CONUS in the wake of the trough. Tightening pressure gradient (4-5 millibars across the CWA later this evening into the overnight) will lead to a period of gustier winds during that time with gusts of 25 to 30 mph anticipated through inland areas and likely gale force in the coastal waters outside of the Harbor. Going Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Moultrie and marine headlines appear well placed with no changes anticipated. Winds will be tapering off through the overnight hours. Temperature-wise: Strong cold advection drives H8 temps down into the -2C to -4C range by morning. Along with diminishing winds and clearing skies, lows will drop through the 30s for all areas away from the coast with the coldest readings well inland. Persistent winds and dry incoming air mass will limit frost development with no headline planned. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Aloft, a large trough will pivot offshore Tuesday, shifting further away from the region while a zonal flow takes place across the Southeast United States through mid-week. At the sfc, high pressure across the South-central United States will extend east across Gulf Coast states and Carolinas Tuesday into Wednesday, before a cold front arrives from the north/northwest by early Thursday. Conditions will remain dry locally through the middle of the week while a west-northwest downslope wind prevails along the eastern edge of the high centered to our west, even as the cold front pushes into the local area by early Thursday. Despite ample sfc heating under clear skies, temps will struggle to warm significantly on Tuesday while weak cold air advection wanes across the region. In general, high temps should only peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s (warmest across southeast Georgia). Although temps are cooler during peak heating, dry air should lead to afternoon RH values between 20- 25% away from the coast Tuesday afternoon. Sfc winds are expected to remain below 10 mph though, so fire wx concerns should be limited. Sfc winds should slowly turn southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday, offsetting some radiational cooling at night and resulting in airmass modification on Wednesday ahead of an arriving cold front. In general, Tuesday night lows should dip into the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to mid-upper 40s near the coast. On Wednesday, high temps should peak in the lower 70s with sunny conditions in place. Guidance indicates a dry cold front pushing across the region Wednesday night, likely becoming positioned along or just south of the local area by daybreak Thursday. Despite northerly winds post fropa, sfc temps should peak in the lower 70s under partly sunny skies in advance of a low pressure system developing and shifting eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico heading into late week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. An upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast United States early Friday through early Saturday, forcing an area of low pressure across the northeast Gulf to possibly strengthen while tracking over/near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWATs should increase to around 1.25 inches as the system nears, and with strong isentropic ascent and a lingering front across the area, should promote showers to develop locally Thursday night into Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers are now forecast to occur for most areas Friday and Friday evening, before precip activity trends offshore with the sfc low pulling away Saturday. Some guidance suggests some modest instability developing near the coast and offshore as the low tracks near the region, so a few embedded thunderstorms are possible along the immediate coast. The aforementioned low should continue to depart the region late weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning into early afternoon, precip chances should become confined to the coastal waters by Saturday evening. Dry conditions should then prevail Sunday with high pressure in place. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period. A touch of gustiness will impact the terminals this afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens this evening with surface high pressure building into the region and strong cold advection. Northwest winds develop with gusts to around 25 kts this evening and much of the overnight. Winds aloft increase as well, and there could be some LLWS that develops. But given the anticipated gustiness at the surface and decent mixing, LLWS has not been added to the forecasts at this time. As the pressure gradient and CAA decreases late tonight, winds should decrease to around 10 kts by 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. Flight restrictions are possible at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals Thursday night into Friday as showers/low clouds develop with a passing low pressure system. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure building into the region tonight will lead to a period of gusty northwesterly winds later this evening into the overnight hours. Gale force gusts are anticipated in all coastal waters outside of Charleston Harbor...Small Craft Advisory conditions in the Harbor. Seas will build this evening and peak during the early overnight hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions will improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston County waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is then expected to pass near/off the Southeast Coast Friday into Saturday, likely contributing to deteriorating marine conditions across local waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most waters, but the track/strength of the low pressure system will play a large role in overall impacts along the Southeast Coast. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173134 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:08 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 301 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and cool tonight with blustery west winds. Gusty west winds again tomorrow with mainly dry conditions. Rain and snow shower chances overnight Wednesday as a moisture starved shortwave swings through. Anomolously dry conditions return Thursday and Friday before a potential precipitation maker this weekend; though the existence and the track of the low remains shrouded in uncertainty. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The core of the 500mb cold pool works in overhead with temperatures of -35 aloft. Strong CAA along with 925mb winds around 20-25 knots will continue to promote mixing overnight. Expecting the gusty winds from this afternoon to drop off, however, sustained winds will likely stay around 10-15 mph. Despite the non-ideal radiational cooling conditions, strong cold air advection will bring temps down below freezing for most, and mid to upper 20s across the high terrain in western MA. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow. The core of the cold pool moves quickly offshore bringing 500mb temps back towards -28C. With the mid to upper level warming, 700mb - 500mb lapse rates have become very meager around 4 to 6 C/km. This combined with a mid-level ridge building in should limit shower chances in the afternoon with peak diurnal heating. Still expecting diurnal cumulus to form again tomorrow afternoon. With the cold start and continued cold air advection, temperatures will only top the low to mid 40s. Winds turn gusty again tomorrow afternoon with westerly winds and a well mixed boundary layer. Peak wind gusts of 25-30mph is possible in the afternoon. Tomorrow night. Winds begin to turn southerly and diminish overnight as the pressure gradient briefly relaxes ahead of a surface low north of the Great Lakes. Skies look mostly cloudy due to mid/high level clouds out ahead of the surface low. Overnight lows look to drop near or below freezing again for most of the region with mid to upper 20s in the high terrain. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... * Light rain and snow showers Wednesday night associated with shortwave digging into the region * Dry Thursday and Friday * Increasing chances for more substantial precipitation this weekend, though uncertainty in track of low pressure remains high Persistent amplified trough across the western CONUS and broad but shallow trough across the east continues to dominate the synoptic pattern through the the period. Deep digging shortwave and associated low pressure dives into southern New England late Wednesday bringing the chance for rain and snow showers overnight into Thursday. Tranquil but seasonable weather to end the work week before shower chances increase next weekend. There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast beyond day 3, with all global guidance providing different solutions, as discussed in more detail below. Wednesday through Friday... Previously mentioned shortwave digs into southern New England increasing rain and snow chances late Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. While the shortwave appears at first to pack a punch, there will be limited moisture available to the forcing that will result in not much more than scattered showers/snow showers during the Wednesday night period as dewpoints drop from about a third of an inch to less than one quarter of an inch as flow shifts from the southwest to the west/west northwest overnight. Strong CAA will allow temperatures to drop below zero overnight into Thursday morning across the interior, which will allow for some novelty snowflakes that may yield a few tenths of an inch of accumulation across the terrain. Overall, ensembles hint at less than a tenth of an inch of QPF associated with this shortwave, so regardless of if any snow may accumulate, it will have little to no impact on the morning commute. Dry conditions work in for Thursday and Friday as PWATs drop to around -1.5 sigma of normal and PWATs continue to drop to around 0.1" by Friday. Thus, expecting a generally sunny period Thursday into early Friday ahead of our next potential precip maker. Seasonable to seasonably chilly temperatures expected. With very low dewpoints, potentially dropping below 0F by Friday, renewed fire weather concerns will develop on Thursday as gusty west winds redevelop; concerns will be less Friday as high pressure allows winds to go near calm for the better part of the daylight hours. Saturday and Sunday... There remains pretty considerable uncertainty between deterministic guidance regarding precipitation this weekend, with the 12Z GFS indicating a pretty robust inland runner will impact SNE on Saturday. The ECWMF and Canadian provide two completely different scenarios, with the ECMWF indicating scattered showers, and the CMC diagnosing a south of the benchmark low that will initiate showers across eastern MA and CT. For now, we continue to rely on the ensembles that paint a broad picture of rain chances Saturday and Saturday night with support of between a quarter and an inch of rain over the period. Depending on the existence and track of the low, there is a possibility of some mixed precipitation across the high terrain, but not placing much weight in that potential at this time as we continue to try to hone in on the potential for a storm. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Rest of Today...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots. Mid level clouds linger with bases around 6-8 kft. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Gusty winds drop off across the interior but remain sustained WNW at 5 to 15 knots. Gusty winds pick up over the Cape and the Islands overnight. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Another round of mid level CU with bases of 5-8 kft. Tuesday Night...High Confidence VFR. Decreasing winds turning south KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty WNW winds KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty west winds Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA, slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight: Moderate Confidence Marginal small craft criteria gusts overnight for both the inner and outer waters. Seas remain 2-4 feet. Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence Continued marginal small craft conditions with gusts near 25 knots esspically for the southern waters. Seas increase to 4-6 feet. Tomorrow night: High Confidence Winds turn SW overnight, but remain gusty below 25 knots. Seas of 3-5 feet. Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon Tuesday. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we have held off on issuing another SPS for elevated fire weather concerns, but may be reassessed overnight. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173133 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 258 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While weather remains quiet in the backyard, thunderstorms along the leading edge of a cold front are approaching the forecast area. After the sun sets, they should lose some of their punch, but some lingering light showers may cross over the island chain during the overnight hours. Any residual showers taper off tomorrow morning by sunrise, leaving behind cooler and less humid conditions as we head into the midweek. Tuesday and Wednesday see afternoon highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows around the upper 60s and lower 70s. The next round of active weather moves in over the end of the week. Chances of precipitation increase over Thursday and Friday, keeping showers in the area through sometime Saturday or Sunday when the parent system exits the forecast area. This system will bring increased winds, a mix of showers and thunderstorms, and will help to keep a lid on high temperatures, but this is still 4 to 5 days away and the finer details of the forecast will change. With that being said, the big picture of the end of the week being active and messy continues to persist. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Moderate breezes tonight become modestly fresh and continue to turn around the clock as a cold front pushes through during the overnight hours, bringing some shower activity at times. Breezes turn easterly and diminish over Tuesday and Wednesday, but more active weather at the end of the week freshens breezes again with the direction continuing to shift to a southwest to westerly direction ahead of yet another cold front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the this evening into tonight. Winds are currently SW at 5 to 10 knots, and will become W to NW this evening, thereafter winds will pick up speed with occasional gusts of near 25 knots. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of and along an approaching cold front may impact the terminals with short periods of MVFR or IFR conditions overnight into the early morning hours, but for the time being only VCSH is mentioned in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 72 77 69 79 / 30 10 0 10 Marathon 72 79 69 80 / 30 10 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173132 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:47 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 231 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southern Florida remains in the warm sector ahead of a weak frontal boundary, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little impacts are expected from this feature over South Florida this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Beautiful weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure to our north remains in control. Temperatures during this time period will be at or slightly below normal. A potent system is expected to cross FL Friday into early Saturday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance all points to the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of South FL. Early forecast QPF ranges from 1-3 inches, although some locally higher amounts will certainly be possible. Still too early to determine if there will be a severe threat on Friday into Friday evening, but that potential will be monitored closely over the next several days. Southerly winds will be quite gusty through late Friday night, especially along the coasts, with gusts of 30 mph + possible. Once the system moves off to the east, much drier conditions are expected for Sunday into early next week as weak upper level ridging builds into the region. Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be right around climatological norms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A bit more uncertainty than usual in terms of thunder potential this afternoon. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm near east coast sites so included VCTS for this threat. Winds will become more northerly through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 67 75 61 78 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 64 77 57 80 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 77 60 80 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 67 77 61 79 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 74 61 77 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 65 74 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 65 76 60 80 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 62 72 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 64 74 60 78 / 20 10 0 0 Naples 61 76 56 78 / 20 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
#1173131 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 214 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .NEAR TERM... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Slow moving cold frontal boundary across NE FL will continue to edge southward into Central FL ending the risk of any significant thunderstorm activity, with shower/rainfall chances ending by around sunset as they exit to the south and to the east into the Atlantic. Temps are still expected to nudge into the lower 70s this afternoon as sunny breaks develop in the current cloud cover. Tonight...Low pressure intensifying off the Carolinas will push a strong trailing trough passage southward through SE GA/NE FL during the late evening hours with a sharp increase in Northwest to North winds to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-35mph inland and up to 35-40 mph along the Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River Basin/I-95 corridor, very close to Wind Advisory levels, but always tough for nocturnal wind surges to outperform guidance so will hold off on any issuance at this time. Otherwise skies will become mostly clear overnight as the much drier and cooler airmass arrives with temps falling into the mid/upper 30s across SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL, with airmass too dry along with too much mixing for any frost formation. Elsewhere along the Atlantic Coast and rest of NE FL low temps will fall into the lower 40s. These colder temps combined with the brisk NW-N winds will support wind chill values as low as 30F across SE GA and the I-10 corridor of North FL, but not quite low enough for Wind Chill Advisory. Bottom Line: These will be some of the coldest temps across the NE FL/SE GA region since February. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure conditions will be in place through the middle of the week with dry weather, mostly clear skies, and predominantly mild winds persisting through Wednesday. There is a possibility for frost formation early Wednesday morning for some areas however conditions for development are borderline so confidence at this time is low. Coolest temperatures for the week will be on Tuesday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday and rising into the lower 70s Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly rise from out of the upper 30s up into the mid 40s Wednesday night going into early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The influence of high pressure will diminish and move off to the east on Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing on Friday as instability associated with a low pressure system traveling across the Gulf of Mexico and then being followed by a dry front bringing high pressure conditions over the forecast area by the end of the weekend. Temperatures will drop to be slightly below the seasonal average by the end of the week but will return to normal levels by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conds expected at SSI through the period with an increase to NW-N winds at 17G27 knots tonight from 01-11Z time frame. Otherwise some lingering MVFR CIGS with last of rainfall at NE FL TAF sites which should fade by the 20-22Z time frame with all sites becoming VFR with lingering mid clouds through sunset. Increase in NW-N winds expected at NE FL TAF sites around 02-03Z to 14G24 knots at GNV/VQQ and 15G25 knots at JAX and 17G27 knots at CRG/SGJ with decreasing winds to around 10 knots or so around sunrise (12Z) and lingering through the last portion of the TAF period with SKC developing in the 12-18Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front and wave of low pressure will continue to move across the area today with scattered to numerous showers through the afternoon and into the evening. In the wake of the cold front, a rapid increase in northwest to north winds is expected tonight and will support gale force conditions with a gale warning is now in effect. Winds will lighten Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance arrives Thursday night which will increase winds and build seas again through Friday. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 36 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 73 40 63 40 / 50 0 0 0 SGJ 73 44 61 43 / 90 0 0 0 GNV 74 41 66 39 / 60 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 66 39 / 80 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
#1173130 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 207 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Upper level troughing extending southwest from the Great Lakes will move eastward over the next 24 hours. On the surface, an area of low pressure and cold front will move across Florida today with scattered showers and storms spreading from north to south through the day. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms today with gusty damaging winds and hail possible in the stronger storms. The cold front pushes south and east of the area by late Monday evening allowing for strong high pressure to build in from the northwest. This high pressure will help usher in some cooler and drier air on Tuesday and Wednesday. Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will top out only the 60`s and 70`s with overnight lows dipping into the 40`s and 50`s each morning through the middle of the week. The high pressure moves east of Florida by early Thursday and will trigger the warm up back bringing temperatures closer to average for the latter part of the week. Models are continuing to bring another weather system through the central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. This system will move across Florida on Friday with scattered showers and storms likely through the day. We will be keeping a close eye on this system for any potential for severe weather later in the week. Most of the weather moves southeast of the area by Saturday afternoon with further clearing expected on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the north. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Will hold VCTS at TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ from 18-21Z, then VCTS at PGD/FMY/RSW from 21-02Z. West-southwest winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible through the day, then becoming northerly by this evening and continuing through Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An area of low pressure and cold front will push across the waters through the day with scattered showers and storms possible in the vicinity of the front. Increasing winds and seas behind the front will produce Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will subside late Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north allowing for the the gradient to weaken. The next weather system will move through the gulf waters on Friday with scattered showers and storms possible once again as well as gusty winds and building seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 204 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front moves through the area today producing scattered showers and isolated storms. This front exits the area by later this evening with some drier and cooler air filtering into the region in the wake of this front. Some critical RH values less than 35 percent is likely on Tuesday and Wednesday, but low ERC values should preclude the need for any Red Flag Warnings. RH values rebound by the latter part of the week with no other fire weather concerns anticipated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 52 69 51 73 / 10 0 0 0 FMY 60 76 54 79 / 20 0 0 0 GIF 50 69 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 SRQ 54 74 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 44 68 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 55 68 56 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
#1173129 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:02 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1244 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southwestern upper low remains over Arizona this morning, while the northern stream trough extends from Quebec southwestward to Iowa. An impulse ahead of the troughing could produce a few sprinkles early this morning, but that`s about it. The cooler, drier air has been slow to arrive, with dew points only now starting to drop over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The northern stream trough will move rapidly off the East Coast over the next 24-36 hours, putting the local area under northwesterly upper flow, if only briefly. Surface high pressure currently over the Dakotas will dive southward and be centered near the Louisiana coast by sunset Tuesday. As the drier air arrives this morning, clouds should diminish and it`ll become a bit on the breezy side by midday. Humidities will drop noticeably, to around 30 percent this afternoon. Fortunately, we got a good bit of rain yesterday, or there would have been a few fire weather concerns. The coldest air won`t have arrived this afternoon, and we tend to get a bit of compressional heating across the northern half of the area with northerly winds, so we should see some recovery in temperatures this afternoon to close to 70, with some possibility that might not be warm enough. Main forecast concern will be overnight lows tonight, with the potential for temperatures near or below freezing across northern portions of the area around sunrise Tuesday. It`s been several weeks since temperatures reached freezing anywhere in the CWA, and we`re past the mean last freeze date for any of our climate reporting stations, making freeze products necessary in all areas when applicable. Main wild card in forecasting overnight lows is whether the winds become light enough to allow the radiational cooling necessary to fall to or below freezing. NBM probabilities continue to show the main threat is to our southwest Mississippi counties, with the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana carrying somewhat of a lesser threat. One adjustment to the Freeze Watch area was to add Pointe Coupee Parish to the watch to better fit our watch and WFO LCH together. Will keep it as a watch for now and let the day shift take another look at the overnight wind forecast before upgrading, if need be. Considering the source region of the high pressure that will be centered over us tomorrow was in Canada, it makes sense that Tuesday highs will be cooler than today, struggling to get much past 60 in most areas. But at least there will be abundant sunshine and much less wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the northern stream trough losing its effect on the local area Tuesday night, the upper flow becomes more zonal across the northern Gulf Coast. Upper troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest will finally kick the Arizona upper low eastward in a much weakened state. As it opens up into a wave, it will move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. While both the GFS and ECMWF operational models both develop weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, the GFS solution is close enough to the northern Gulf Coast to spread rain into the area, mainly Thursday and Thursday night. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, but at least for now, severe weather and heavy rainfall appear to be rather minimal threats. Once the shortwave reaches the East Coast, it phases with norther stream energy and closes off again, which will allow high pressure to become dominant over the lower Mississippi River Valley for the weekend. That will keep the local area dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal, with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The only impactful weather in this cycle is the gusty northerly winds behind the cold front that passed overnight last night. Expect winds to stay elevated until this evening before the atmosphere decouples. The gradient relaxes as the center of the surface high moves over the area, and winds will remain below impactful thresholds. Outside of that, VFR conditions will prevail for the whole period. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While winds are short of advisory criteria at present, expect that to change over the next 6 hours or so, and am not planning any adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory at this time. A few gusts to 35 knots aren`t absolutely out of the question this evening, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Winds drop off pretty quickly Tuesday morning, with less hazardous conditions expected for the remainder of the week. The one limitation to that idea is if low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday/Friday develops more than expected. If that happens, forecast wind speeds at that point would need boosted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 31 62 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 36 64 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 34 63 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 43 60 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 37 61 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 33 63 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173128 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds, with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots, will gradually subside through the evening and overnight hours. A light northeasterly wind returns for Tuesday. /96 && .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A much cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area today in the wake of a cold front. A northwesterly flow aloft will lead to building sfc high pressure across the area. Skies will clear by late this morning with high temps in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Sfc high pressure settles over the area tonight resulting in lighter winds. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s inland to upper 30s near the coast. As a result, a freeze warning is in effect for areas north of the coastal counties. Clear and cool conditions continue on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 35 62 38 70 46 69 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 40 20 Pensacola 38 60 42 68 49 68 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 20 Destin 41 59 45 67 51 70 56 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 20 Evergreen 31 62 34 71 42 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Waynesboro 31 61 34 70 43 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 20 Camden 30 59 33 70 42 71 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 Crestview 32 62 35 71 43 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650- 655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636. && $$ |
#1173127 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1238 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Weak cold front this morning leading to a cooler and breezy day. - Occasional gusts to gale across the offshore waters today. - Low (10-20%) chance of minor coastal flooding. A weak cold front/surge of high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and breezy north to northeast winds to S TX today. The cooler, slightly drier air is beginning to filter into the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads this morning. The surge of high pressure will continue southward through the morning hours and is expected to reach the southern CWA between 10- 13Z. North to northeast winds will be strongest across the Coastal areas with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds will be strongest across the marine zones and there is a low to medium (10-30%) chance of gusts to gale force, mainly across the offshore waters. An upper disturbance and sufficient mid/upper level moisture will bring a slight chance to chance (10-50%) of mainly showers to the area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible given some mid level instability. The better chances for convection will be along the Rio Grande Plains where PoPs are up to 50%. Chances range from 20-35% across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. The Victoria Crossroads is the least likely to have precipitation today with PoPs <15%. Rain chances end by this evening as weak upper level ridging builds across the region. Although winds strengthen today, RH values will remain elevated due to the cooler temperatures, thus fire weather concerns are low. Mostly cloudy skies will continue across most of S TX today, however, Highs will be in the 60s both today and Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations tonight. Strong northeast winds and large seas developing across the gulf waters today will likely lead to elevated tide levels. The uncertainty is just how high the tides will get to. The PETSS shows tides up to 1.5 MSL during high tide this afternoon, which is typically not impactful. However, the energy from increasing swell periods and seas may help to push the water up to the dunes during high tide. Will continue to monitor trends for possible minor coastal flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Night into Thursday - 40-50% Chance of Sea Fog Wednesday evening The period will begin with moisture returning to the region Wednesday as a surface high pressure shifts eastwards. This will increase our dew points back into the upper 60s along the coast and in the coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Sea surface temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time. Winds should be around 10 knots therefore, a chance will exist for sea fog to develop along the coast and nearshore waters. NBM ensembles were in agreement with this and portray a 40-50% chance. The upper level low that has been parked over the Four Corners region will finally be on the move Wednesday. It will send our next cold front through the area while PWAT values are expected to increase to above normal values ahead of the front. Models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate the presence of instability to go along with the upper forcing in the area from the front. As a result of these components, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist beginning late Wednesday night into the day Thursday. The west could see the 90s by this weekend. A surface high move into the area in the wake of the front Thursday. High temperatures are expected to warm by Friday back into the lower 80s to upper 80s out west. As the surface high shifts eastwards early next week, the gradient will tighten over the area which will increase our winds over the waters. This will create the potential for SCA conditions in the latter half of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Have VFR conditions prevailing throughout this TAF period. Gusty northeast winds can be expected to continue throughout this afternoon diminishing this evening. Likewise have VCSH in TAF`s until this evening, then dry conditions expected. Some reduced VSBY`s or lower CIG`s may occur in and around storms but have high confidence in prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front this morning will bring strong northeast winds to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters today. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible, mainly across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly this morning. Winds will decrease overnight, becoming weak to moderate by Tuesday morning. Weak to moderate northeast winds can be expected through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (40-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday afternoon/evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 54 66 57 / 30 0 0 0 Victoria 68 47 63 52 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 64 54 67 58 / 50 10 0 10 Alice 66 51 65 54 / 30 0 0 0 Rockport 71 55 67 58 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 50 62 55 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 67 54 66 56 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 59 68 60 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173126 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1242 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains today but clouds probably won`t be clearing much until this after- noon. Otherwise, not a lot of issues for SE TX for the day or so. With skies clearing and north winds prevailing, high temperatures today will be in the 60s. Much drier and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s). Tues will be another dry/quiet day with highs in the 60s. However, as the surface high begins moving east of the region, look for the return of E/SE winds (and some low-level moisture) by Tues evening and night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low to mid 50s for most locations...into upper 40s over the far north- ern counties. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the eastward exit of surface high pressure late on Tuesday, we return to an onshore moisture regime by Wednesday that should provide a steady increase to temperature/dew point values ahead of the approach of our next storm system on Thursday. A wholesale increase in surface dew points of about 10 degF is on the cards by Wednesday evening, while increases in maximum temperature will be a bit more meager with highs just under 70 for most locations. Meanwhile, models continue to depict the approach of an amplified midlevel trough that will push westward from Southern AZ/NM towards the Western Gulf by late Wednesday. This feature will induce the development of a coastal low/trough just offshore which will serve as the focus for the potential for widespread (and potentially heavy) rainfall that will develop on Thursday. Global models have come into a bit better agreement over the past 24 hrs, though GFS continues to show a slightly more amplified midlevel trough and resultant stronger coastal low. However, both the GFS and EC continue to place the main axis of heavy rainfall over the Gulf, though given the uncertainty of the past few model cycles the potential for some locally heavy rain closer to the coast (i.e. along and south of the I-10 corridor) still can`t be ruled out for the time being. Too early to talk specific amounts for the time being, but most of the area looks poised to receive at least some measurable rainfall on Thursday with totals increasing roughly from north to south. The coastal low will push further towards the Central Gulf by early Friday, ending the rainfall threat as we head into the weekend. A fairly benign pattern looks to dominate the upcoming weekend with highs remaining in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s under weak onshore flow. Cady && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gusty northeast winds will decline this evening into tonight. Clouds may increase for a time this afternoon before decreasing tonight. Winds tomorrow are expected to become more easterly with clouds increasing once again. However, cigs are expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Strong north winds will continue throughout this morning and afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Wind speeds will reach 20 to 30 knots through the early evening, with higher gusts at times, along with seas reaching as high as 10 feet offshore. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday as winds become light and shift to the east. Onshore flow will return on Wednesday, with a storm system developing offshore on Thursday that will bring our next chance of widespread (and possibly heavy) rainfall to the area. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 64 50 67 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 44 67 53 69 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 53 61 56 67 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
#1173125 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 123 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No changes to ongoing forecast as showers and isolated t`storms will continue to track across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor this morning with rainfall ending and decreasing clouds this afternoon. Becoming breezy and much cooler tonight behind the frontal passage. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A cold front is located from SC, across southeast GA, and to the central FL panhandle. Weak pre-frontal trough appears to extend southwest to northeast over northeast FL. Broad mid/upper level troughing extends across the eastern U.S., with a strong shortwave trough diving southeast across the Midwest. Locally, scattered mainly light showers extend across the area and some instability extends across northeast FL with MUCAPE of about 500-1000 J/kg, highest over toward the I-75 corridor. Upstream, some scattered weak convection is noted across the northeast GOMEX. The cold front will slowly shift southward today and when combined with increasing lift with shortwave energy will support scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today across northeast FL. The environment is supportive of isolated strong storms, with forecast guidance showing MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 kt, with the main focus across the srn most zones. SPC has outline a marginal risk of severe storms in this area today, with mainly a wind threat threat and lower hail threat. Most of the activity will be south of the area 5-6 pm today. Skies will be mostly cloudy through at least early aftn with decreasing cloudiness developing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the northwest during the day, but not reach more than about 10-15 mph, with highs today expected in the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s. Tonight, skies will clear up tonight except for some thin cirrus. A strong pressure gradient develops with stronger pressure rises of 2-4 mb/3 hours developing as high pressure tries to build in quickly behind the cold front. Gusty winds from the northwest anticipated with winds of 15-25 mph with a few gusts of at least 30 mph. Much colder tonight with lows from the upper 30s to lower and mid 40s, and wind chills becoming widespread in the lower to mid 30s inland areas by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure building into the area will bring dry weather over much of the upcoming week. Northwest flow will allow for cooler air to tickle in, leading to temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will ease on Tuesday as high pressure continues to build into the area leading to a shift to light westerly winds by Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to trend upward to sit at just near normal. A shift in the winds is expected during the morning hours on Thursday as the high pressure moves off towards the northeast ahead of a low pressure system over the Gulf. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Precipitation chances return as a low pressure system over the Gulf is expected to move over the Florida peninsula from Thursday night through Friday. The latest GFS run indicates a more northerly track as it moves from southwest to northeast. As such, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in over north central Florida and spread to the rest of the local area as the low moves through. Estimates of 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with higher locally higher amounts expected over north central Florida. By the weekend, dry conditions look to become reestablished as the low moves off towards the northeast and high pressure builds in over the area. Below normal temperatures during the forecast period are expected as daytime temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s for NE FL and the upper 60s for SE GA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conds expected at SSI through the period with an increase to NW-N winds at 17G27 knots tonight from 01-11Z time frame. Otherwise some lingering MVFR CIGS with last of rainfall at NE FL TAF sites which should fade by the 20-22Z time frame with all sites becoming VFR with lingering mid clouds through sunset. Increase in NW-N winds expected at NE FL TAF sites around 02-03Z to 14G24 knots at GNV/VQQ and 15G25 knots at JAX and 17G27 knots at CRG/SGJ with decreasing winds to around 10 knots or so around sunrise (12Z) and lingering through the last portion of the TAF period with SKC developing in the 12-18Z time frame. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds are westerly about 10-15 kt and seas noted to be mostly around 2 ft or less. Cold front will slowly push across the area waters today and will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast FL. Northwest to north winds will rapidly increase tonight with enough support to trigger a gale warning for area waters, with gale conditions for at least 4-8 hours. Will probably be a short duration small craft advisory for Tuesday morning, but winds will decrease quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds continue to be light into Wed and early Thu as high pressure ridge extends across the region. Winds will increase Thu night as the next low pressure system moves into the eastern GOMEX. Still looks like the low pres system will scoot just south of the marine area Fri night, and then into the western Atlantic Sat morning. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 36 62 39 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 70 42 61 44 / 20 0 0 0 JAX 73 40 63 40 / 50 0 0 0 SGJ 73 44 61 43 / 90 0 0 0 GNV 74 41 66 39 / 60 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 66 39 / 80 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
#1173124 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 129 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No substantial changes were made to the going forecast. I did tweak/raise forecast high temps for this afternoon, particularly across the Charleston tri-county where temps have warmed into the lower 70s most areas. Previous discussion... Morning analysis reveals the main surface boundary well out into the Atlantic, arcing down through northern Florida, with some shower activity still ongoing. There is a secondary surface trough/dewpoint boundary about to slip through the region, turning winds more northerly and dropping dewpoints into the 40s and even some 30s. Boundary will be advancing through the CWA through the rest of the day ushering in cooler and substantially drier air into the region. Per satellite imagery, cloud cover is thinning west to east, although there may be another push of thicker cloud cover into the region through the afternoon. Temperature-wise: Certainly cooler than in recent days, although we should be about to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s before the arrival of the cooler air. Tonight: Pressure gradient will increase to around 5 mbs across the forecast area by mid-evening. The forecast will feature NW wind gusts between 20-25 mph during the evening. In addition, strong CAA is forecast overnight. In fact, the H85 temperature over KCHS and KSAV will cool from 5C at 0Z to near -4C by 6Z. CAA will end late tonight with the pressure gradient relaxing through the rest of the night. Given the fresh CAA, decreasing winds, and clear sky, low temperatures are expected to range around 10 degrees below normal. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures may approach freezing across a corridor from Jenkins to Allendale Counties. However, winds in excess of 5 mph and RH below 60 percent will not favor frost development. Min temperatures should favor values in the mid 30s along the I-95 corridor to around 40 degrees across the coastal counties. Lake Winds: In the wake of a secondary cold front, a steep pressure gradient and strong cold air advection will rapidly develop across Lake Moultrie this evening, decreasing late tonight. Northwest wind gusts are forecast to gust to around 25 mph tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 PM until 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will largely dominate the surface pattern during this period, although a dry cold front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Air mass remains dry and there are no notable forcing mechanisms in play, so rain-free conditions are expected through Thursday. Temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday when highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s, before moderating back to around normal. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s Tuesday night, then more mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. Upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast Friday into Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and possibly strengthen while moving near/off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWats creep up to around 1.25 inches, and with strong isentropic ascent, showers should break out late Thursday night/Friday morning and continue through the day and into Friday night. This event should bring a decent amount of rain to the area. Consensus keeps instability largely offshore so no thunder is included in the forecast at this time. The aforementioned low should continue to depart over the weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning, rain chances should become confined to the coastal waters. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period. A touch of gustiness will impact the terminals this afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens this evening with surface high pressure building into the region and strong cold advection. Northwest winds develop with gusts to around 25 kts this evening and much of the overnight. Winds aloft increase as well, and there could be some LLWS that develops. But given the anticipated gustiness at the surface and decent mixing, LLWS has not been added to the forecasts at this time. As the pressure gradient and CAA decreases late tonight, winds should decrease to around 10 kts by 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers possible Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Today, a cold front will sweep across the marine zones early this morning. Northwest winds should favor values of 10 to 15 kts this morning, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 1 to 2 ft today. Tonight, a secondary cold front is expected to push across the marine zones this evening. Northwest winds will rapidly strengthen through the evening, with gales developing outside the CHS Harbor by late this evening. A Gale Warning has been posted for all waters outside the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 9 AM. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 6 AM. Seas should build through most of the night. Peak wave heights are expected during the pre-dawn hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions should markedly improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston county waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near/off the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is potential for conditions to reach advisory levels again. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173123 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Light shower activity should be exiting the Florida Big Bend through the early morning hours as the cold front finally pushes through the CWA. In the cold fronts wake, dry air will be advecting into the region throughout the day, which will quickly scour out any lingering clouds by mid-day, with near clear skies expected by the evening. Across the upper levels, a late season trough is expected to dig south into south central Georgia by tonight, which will aid in the cold air advection across the region as 500mb heights fall areawide. In conjunction with the aforementioned height falls, surface pressure will be quickly increasing throughout the day as high pressure pushes into the region today. This will lead to a tight pressure gradient across the region as well as gusty afternoon winds. While temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s areawide, the potential for frost is looking less likely as winds look to remain elevated through the overnight hours. RH values from 06-12 UTC look to peak around 60%, which is low for frost development. While frost is unlikely, there could be the potential for patchy frost in sheltered locations where ground moisture may lead to micro-climates of higher RH across portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These locations have the best chances for frost development given the cooler low temperatures forecast tonight. High temperatures today will struggle against cold air advection; however, they are expected to climb into the mid 60s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Deep west-northwest upper level flow will keep the weather cool and dry. A cool continental surface high will drop south through eastern Texas, with a ridge axis extending east. This ridge axis will pass south across the service area on Tuesday, then hang out over the northern Gulf on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given its proximity on Tuesday night, winds will readily go calm. Clear skies and dry air will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. So early Wednesday morning will be the most favorable time for our typically colder spots to bottom out in the mid 30s and support some patchy frost. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The cutoff upper low which has loitered over the Southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico will finally budge this week and start to move straight east. As the upper trough axis crosses the Southern Plains on Thursday, upper level diffluence will overspread the Gulf on Thursday night, and a dual jet structure will be favorable for a strengthening surface low moving east across the Gulf. The most likely track would take the surface low across the FL Peninsula on Friday. This most likely track would keep the forecast area on the cooler and more stable poleward side of the low, with rain and showers, and perhaps some embedded elevated thunder over our FL counties. However, there is a notable cluster of ensemble members that take the low more northeast across the Big Bend region and far south Georgia. If this left hand track were to verify, then a warm, moist unstable air mass would have a chance to spread northward as well, with the structure of the low possibly supporting hodographs and a shear profile favorable to all convective modes around Friday. Again, this outcome will be highly conditional on a more left hand track of the low. Regardless of the track that the low takes, once it moves out into the Atlantic, dry northerly surface winds on its back side will arrive in time for next weekend. Despite the northerly winds, the air mass next weekend looks quite seasonable, with near normal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front pushing through the area will continue to erode lower clouds across all sites with KVLD likely holding onto MVFR CIG`s for the next hour or so. Following this, winds will shift to northerly at all sites with clear skies through the remainder of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will sweep across the waters early this morning. Northwest breezes behind the front will become strong by this evening, with a few gusts approaching gale-force tonight. A high pressure ridge extending eastward from Texas will quickly settle over the waters Tuesday afternoon, remaining in place through Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will quickly move east across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday. North of the low, easterly breezes will develop, possibly becoming strong at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level trough will push through the region today, which will lead to gusty northwest winds through the mid morning and afternoon hours. These strong winds combined with mixing heights around 4,400 to 4,600 feet will lead to high dispersions for areas primarily west of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Although dry air will be advecting into the region, minimum RH values today will only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect much lower minimum RH values on Tuesday as dry air continues to push into the area. Minimum RH values on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s; however, winds will be near calm as high pressure settles into the region. Although RH values will be low, there are no fire weather concerns at this time outside of high dispersions given the recent rainfall across the region the last week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Bainbridge gage expected to drop below flood stage later today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 39 63 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 39 62 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 34 61 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 34 60 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 37 61 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 39 64 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 42 60 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ |
#1173122 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1211 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Rex Block pattern continues to hold through the short term, with a ridge across the Pacific NW and a cut-off low across the Desert SW, maintaining an active pattern, with a couple weak shortwaves or perturbations in the mostly southwesterly flow sliding through Deep South Texas this afternoon and again early Tuesday. At the surface, the front has stalled just offshore and across the border. High pressure builds this morning, with a stronger northeasterly flow arriving by mid morning. Expect breezy to near windy conditions along the lower Texas coast through the afternoon, with overrunning precip near the coast and mid to lower valley and general showers picking up as the mid-level energy swings by into this afternoon. Most rainfall will come by way of light drizzle, light rain, and light showers. An isolated rumble or two of thunder is still possible with the passing instability aloft and front meandering in the area, but confidence is much lower and surface based instability is very low or nonexistent. Overall, some beneficial rainfall should hopefully find some rain gauges into this afternoon, with temperatures generally holding where they are now or only slightly dipping near daybreak before returning this afternoon. Thick cloud cover keeps lows from falling out of the mid to upper 50s tonight, and Tuesday highs nudge back into the mid to upper 60s, also stifled by a lack of sunshine and northerly winds slowly turning easterly. Beach hazards return with the northeasterly push this morning into this afternoon. A High Rip Current Risk is expected through tonight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect mid morning into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through the same time period. MHHW guidance shows a steady march toward 1 foot by late morning, with high tide at 3:36 PM. This would lead to narrow beaches late morning through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but confidence is lower at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is in store for the region during the long-term forecast period with a mainly zonal (less amplified) pattern in place. Wednesday evening into Thursday, global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a shortwave trough and associated low pressure system tracking into the region. Mid-upper energies/impulses tracking overhead could help to ignite some showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. For now, have 30- 40% PoPs across the area during this timeframe. Otherwise, expect for dry and tranquil weather to prevail through the long-term period with subsidence and a surface high in control. Temperatures are expected to run normal to warmer than normal through the long-term period. Highs in the 80s with pockets of 90s return to the region later in the week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR condition will prevail into early evening with the continued chance for showers in the area. A few showers could be heavy and briefly lead to IFR conditions. As showers continue to stream northeast we could have some occasional cloud to ground lighting, primarily for BRO and HRL. Right now best timing looks to be over the next hour or two for any thunderstorm activity. Rain chances will likely end later this evening with VFR conditions returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Now through Tuesday...A frontal boundary sits just offshore along the lower Texas coast, with high pressure expected to build by mid- morning and a moderate to strong northeasterly flow arriving. This will drive Small Craft Advisory conditions across all coastal waters this morning into tonight, continuing across the Gulf through tonight, and edging into offshore waters through Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon. Tuesday night through Sunday night....Favorable marine conditions are expected to take place through Saturday with light to moderate winds and subsiding seas. Southerly winds are expected to increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 62 70 64 / 50 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 69 58 70 60 / 50 10 0 0 MCALLEN 68 59 69 62 / 60 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 56 68 60 / 60 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 64 67 65 / 40 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 62 69 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ |
#1173121 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:59 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1246 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures for much of the work week with mainly dry, gusty weather except for a few rain/snow showers possible sometime Wednesday and/or Wednesday night. A period of unsettled weather is also possible sometime this weekend...but confidence is low at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM Update... Area of mid level status is beginning to break up over eastern MA and move offshore. Skies will become clear briefly this morning before more diurnal cumulus form early this afternoon. Gusty winds have already started up across much of the northern MA and will spread south and east today. expecting gusts to peak early this afternoon, then slowly diminish into the evening. 320 AM Update... * Partly sunny & breezy today with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s An approaching shortwave has backed the upper level flow a bit early this morning. This has resulted in mid-high level cloudiness overspreading much of the region. There is even the risk for a brief sprinkle or two early this morning towards the southeast New England coast...but not worth inserting into the forecast at this time. We do expect this band of mid-high level cloudiness to push east of the region later this morning. This should result in skies becoming partly sunny...but colder temps aloft moving in from the west will allow a scattered to broken deck of CU to develop later today. 925T around 0C/+1C with good mixing on westerly flow aloft should allow for high temps to top off mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. So it will be cooler than what we saw over the weekend...but still a bit above normal for this time of year. Bufkit soundings indicate westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph by late morning/early afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Points... * Dry/Seasonable tonight with lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s * Partly sunny/breezy Tue with highs mainly in the middle-upper 40s Details... Tonight... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will generate a seasonable westerly flow of air into southern New England. Although the winds will likely not decouple in most places given a modest WNW low level jet. Nonetheless...850T dropping to between -8C and -10C will result in overnight low temps mainly in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Tuesday... Upper trough across the northeast will generate a cool west to northwest flow of air aloft again on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow along with the cold pool aloft should allow for a scattered to broken deck of diurnal CU to develop again...yielding partly sunny skies later in the day. Temperatures a few degrees colder aloft than today...so expect Tue highs mainly in the middle to upper 40s. Bufkit indicates westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * A quick moving front/system slides through Wed/Wed Night bringing light showers. Temps warmer than normal. * Drier on Thu/Fri, but cooler and breezy. * Could turn unsettled this weekend, but lots of uncertainty on how things evolve. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night... Cyclonic flow in place through this period. A fast moving shortwave trough digs from the western/central Great Lakes early on Wed into the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. The shortwave lifts into the Gulf of Maine/northern New England Wed Night. A weak warm front lifts into/through southern New England Tue Night into Wed. The trailing cold front pushes through late Wed/Wed Night. Still a tricky forecast in how wet it will be across the region, especially earlier in the day. Due to this have generally stuck with the NBM as it is mostly reasonable, but did bump up our PoPs a bit as the stronger cold front slides through later on Wed into Wed Night. The mitigating factors through this period for precip is we are fairly dry with PWATs between 0.2-0.4 inches, which is between the 25th to avg for this time of year per SPC sounding climo for CHH. On top of this we are well mixed within the PBL per Bufkit soundings, which should help mix down some drier dew points. For now have kept more spotty showers before having better chances of precip later in the day. High temps in the 40s across the higher terrain to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With the cold front and later in the day there is the better shot for more widespread showers. For most this will be rain, but the higher terrain has the potential for snow showers. There could even be a bit of accumulation. Not out of the question lower elevations see snow before things end. Right now there is discrepancy on how much QPF we can ring out in this dry airmass. Given the uncertainty stuck with the NBM. Best shot is across far northwestern MA for AOA 1 inch of snow over 24 hrs of mod to high (50-70+ percent chance) and even some low probs (10-30 percent) for 3+ inches per the GEFS/EPS guidance. The GEPS is essentially nil for the 3+ inch probs. Further east along the Route 2 corridor probs are low to mod (10-40 percent chance). Stay tuned for future updates. Anticipating it to be breezy on Wed, but especially Wed Night in wake of the cold front. Will have W to WNW flow with the LLJ increasing to 25-35 kts. Stuck with the NBM for now as its higher winds/gusts are reasonable given the cold air advection and LLJ in place. Thursday through Friday... Flow somewhat cyclonic during this timeframe. A ridge axis will be over the Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley early on Thu. This builds into the TN Valley by late Thu. The ridge axis builds into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic on Fri, but flattens out a bit. High pressure begins to nudge in from the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Thu and just offshore of the Mid Atlantic on Fri. Dry and quiet weather expected through this period as high pressure nudges in. Anticipating gusty winds across southern New England on Thu. Will be fairly well mixed with WNW to NW flow under cold air advection and 925 hPa winds of 25-35 kts. Shouldn`t be terribly difficult to mix down given the environment. So should have gusts of 35-40 mph through much of the day. Given the well mixed boundary layer it won`t be tough to bring down -20 to -30 degree dew points near the top of the PBL. Due to this lowered dew points/RH values to the 15th percentile of guidance for now. Did bump up temps to the 75th percentile of guidance given the setup. Highs on Thu will be right around normal for this time of year in the 40s. Should still be a bit breezy on Fri, but the high will relax the pressure gradient as it builds closer to our region. Temperatures still right around seasonable levels. This Weekend... Considerable uncertainty for this upcoming weekend. A trough will be located somewhere over the Southeastern US late on Fri. This lifts northeastward toward our region on Sat and perhaps Sun depending on how things evolve. Lot of uncertainty in if a coastal system slides up our way. Given the spread in guidance have stuck with the NBM for now for this timeframe. Appears that it could be wet if the trough lifts up into our area. There are some indications that the trough cuts off to our south/southeast, which would keep us dry. At this point probs are moderate (30-70 percent) of 24 hr QPF on both days AOA 0.1 inches. There are low probs of (10-30 percent) of 1+ inch of QPF with the risk being highlighted over RI/SE MA. Can see the uncertainty quite clearly via the large spread in MSLP low pressure center tracks per the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Temps still near to perhaps slightly cooler than seasonable. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Rest of Today...High confidence. VFR. W winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots. Mid level clouds linger with bases around 6-8 kft. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. Gusty winds drop off across the interior but remain sustained WNW at 5 to 15 knots. Gusty winds pick up over the Cape and the Islands overnight. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Another round of mid level CU with bases of 5-8 kft. Tuesday Night...High Confidence VFR. Decreasing winds turning south KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty WNW winds KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with gusty west winds Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High Confidence. Upper trough over the northeast will generate a continued cool WNW flow of air through Tuesday. Decent mixing should promote some 20 to 25 knot wind gusts at times...especially near shore during the afternoon hours. It is very borderline small craft conditions...but bulk of the time conditions will be below small craft criteria. Therefore...only opted SCA headlines for Tuesday across our southern waters. This is for marginal 5 foot seas and 20 to 25 knot wind gusts. Later shifts may need to consider additional marginal small craft headlines for Tuesday...but confidence not high enough to do that right now. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today and Tuesday... Minimum afternoon relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today and Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon on both days. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we opted to issue a SPS for CT and RI due to elevated fire weather concerns today and possibly again on Tuesday. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173120 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:44 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1238 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southern Florida remains in the warm sector ahead of a weak frontal boundary, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little impacts are expected from this feature over South Florida this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Long range models keep generally good weather conditions across SoFlo Through much of the work week, with a huge high pressure cell dominating much of the east half of the CONUS and the GOMEX. The sfc ridge slowly pushes eastward and flattens by mid week, which will keep a generally easterly wind in place through early Friday. Conditions begin to change late Friday and into Saturday as a trough erodes the ridge and sends a frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula. Model consensus remains low regarding potential timing and location of this feature. However, it seems that this one will bring better chances of widespread showers and possible thunderstorm activity. The long range forecast will surely continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available. Afternoon highs are expected to remain near or cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-upper 70s through much of the period. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A bit more uncertainty than usual in terms of thunder potential this afternoon. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm near east coast sites so included VCTS for this threat. Winds will become more northerly through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1218 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 67 75 61 78 / 20 10 0 0 West Kendall 64 77 57 80 / 20 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 66 77 60 80 / 20 10 0 0 Homestead 67 77 61 79 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 66 74 61 77 / 20 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 65 74 60 77 / 20 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 65 76 60 80 / 20 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 62 72 57 76 / 20 0 0 0 Boca Raton 64 74 60 78 / 20 0 0 0 Naples 61 76 56 78 / 20 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ610. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ656- 657-676. && $$ |
#1173119 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 PM 18.Mar.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Juan PR 1157 AM AST Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, CLIMATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1126 AM AST Mon Mar 18 2024 The latest sounding from San Juan, Puerto Rico showed similar moisture from the last 24 hours but capping was somewhat more elevated and stronger than from 12Z on Sunday. Less cloudiness and southeast flow up to 20 kt have contributed to warmer temperatures. With decent relative humidities the forecast high temperatures now produce heat indices in the lower elevations on the leeward coasts and southwest Puerto Rico near Guanica of between 102 and 106 degrees, hence a heat advisory has been issued. Further, at this time, temperatures are forecast to be warmer on Tuesday. As of just before noon, heat indices are 102 to 103 degrees in north central Puerto Rico already, no rain is seen on radar over land at this time. && .SYNOPSIS... A surface high pressure moving from central to eastern Atlantic will continue to promote breezy conditions across the region. A dry and stable pattern is expected to dominate the local weather with limited precipitation. However, passing showers across the windward sections and afternoon convection over northwestern PR remains possible. An increase of rainfall is expected for Wednesday onward. Marine and coastal conditions will continue to improve this week. A moderate rip current risk will remain along most of the northern beaches of the islands. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies prevailed across the region during the overnight hours with few passing showers noted moving over the regional waters and passages. Few showers brushed the windward side of some of the islands from time to time steered by the prevailing low level southeast winds. However, there were no significant accumulations so far. Minimum low temperatures were in the low 70s along the coastal areas and in the upper 50s to low 60s in higher elevations and valleys with some areas of patchy fog noted in the interior sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were light between 5 to 10 mph. A surface high pressure now centered across the northeast Atlantic and extending southwest into the central Atlantic to just northeast of the region will aid in maintaining a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow today, then becoming light and variable by Tuesday as the local pressure gradient relaxes. For the rest of the morning a patch of low level moisture in the easterlies will cross the region and bring periods of mostly light showers to the coastal waters and windward side of some of the islands. This will be followed by isolated to scattered afternoon convection mainly over the central and northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Mostly fair weather skies and warm conditions can be expected elsewhere and in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands during the afternoon. Later in the afternoon and evening, another slot of dry air will filter in from the east and thus limit shower activity once again across the area. For Tuesday, as previously mentioned, as the surface high lifts farther northward into the central and northeast Atlantic, local winds will continue to veer and become even lighter but mainly from the south southeast. This will result in overall drier and fair weather conditions, however expect warmer than normal temperature to continue especially along the northern portions of Puerto Rico and the island of St Croix at least into Wednesday, with maximum heat indices possibly reaching the 100s. Main impacts for this day should be mainly the warmer temperatures with mostly localized isolated to scattered showers of short duration possible during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday as gradual change in the weather pattern is forecast as a cold front and associated frontal boundary will move into the southwest Atlantic and approach the region from the west. This will induce a weak surface trough across the region and slowly increase low level moisture convergence due to the combination of remnant moisture from old frontal boundaries and that of the approaching frontal boundary. In addition the upper level ridging is to erode, as a short wave trough is forecast to cross the region by then. Consequently, expect a better chance for more passing morning showers with increasing probability for afternoon convection across the east interior and central and west sections of Puerto Rico and on the west end of the U.S. Virgin Islands where only isolated shower will be possible. Some of the afternoon shower activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas due to moderate to locally heavy rains over western Puerto Rico. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... A weak frontal boundary moving southeastward in the western Atlantic will begin to pass through the region on Thursday, causing a backing of the surface winds to more of a northeasterly direction and a noticeable increase of moisture content moving over the islands by Friday morning. This shifting of the winds and increase of precipitable water will bring a wetter pattern with scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning hours followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. On Friday, a surface low begins to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, migrating into the western Atlantic as it moves along the eastern coastline of the US meanwhile displaying nor`easter characteristics. Eastward of this system a strong surface ridge will direct a moist easterly flow locally through Saturday which will continue the pattern of an abundance of passing showers with afternoon convection, with the heaviest rainfall over western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. By Sunday the potential nor`easter would of moved into the upper western Atlantic and a Rossby wave trough develops to the southwest, positioning north of the region by Monday morning. The presence of this will cause a veering in the surface winds to a southeasterly direction on Sunday, becoming southerly and variable Monday onward. During this time precipitable water values spike as this long wave pattern brings a moist airmass and unstable conditions over the eastern Caribbean. This may bring a significant increase of rainfall across the islands for multiple areas, however model guidance is subject to change so stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) ESE winds are prevailing over the local area with some sea breeze influences with winds of 8-18 kts and hir gusts--the strongest have been nr TJPS so far. VFR conds to prevail but brief MVFR expected in NW PR aft 18/18Z. Max winds W 85-95 kts btwn FL400-470. && .MARINE... A broad surface high pressure moving into the central and eastern Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds through early in the workweek, resulting in choppy seas. Winds will slow down by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Breezy conditions will continue to promote a moderate rip current risk along the beaches from northwest to northeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. The protected waters of west and southern Puerto Rico, Vieques and St. Croix will remain under a low risk. The rip current risk is expected to remain moderate throughout this upcoming workweek. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly. If you do not know how to swim, we advise you to stay out of the ocean. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1126 AM AST Mon Mar 18 2024 Saint Croix has had record warm temperatures several days in a row and it appears that they will also be able to break their record of 88 set in 1992 again today. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Heat Advisory until 4 PM AST this afternoon for PRZ005-008-010- 011. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
#1173118 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:30 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1112 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Current local radar imagery shows scattered showers with isolated lighting storms north of I-4 ahead of an approaching cold front. Analysis charts show the cold front situated across northern Florida with west to southwest winds at 8-15mph ahead of the front across central Florida. So far convection coming off of the Gulf has weakened as the showers/storms enter central Florida with drier air currently across areas south of Orange and northern Brevard counties. This morning`s 10Z XMR sounding shows the drier air in the mid levels with a MidRH of 35%, LowRH at 64% and a PWAT value of 1.2." In response, DCAPE is high at 1,362 J/kg. The XMR sounding also showed low to moderate instability with MLCAPE at 881 J/kg, in addition to SCP at 4, SHIP at 1.1, and around 50kts of 0-6km shear. The SPC mesoscale analysis page already shows increasing moisture with PWATs around 1.6" along and north of Melbourne. Additionally, forecast soundings and hi- res guidance indicate that moisture and instability will continue to increase into the afternoon with PWATs rising to 1.5-1.9", as well as MLCAPE as high as 800-1,800 J/kg and 0-3km SRH as high as 200-300 m^2/S^2 (near the coast) across central Florida as the front sags east-southeast across central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated to scattered lighting storms are forecast to move east north of Melbourne (PoPs ~40-70%) before noon with the further development to the south into the afternoon (PoPs ~50-80%). Isolated strong to severe storms today will be capable of wind gusts up to 50-60 mph, hail 1 to 1.75 inches in diameter, and occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning. A low threat also (2-4%) exists for a tornado near the coast along and south of Titusville. For this reason, the SPC has placed a Marginal Risk for severe storms across central Florida. Rain and storm chances will dwindle into the late evening hours before drying out into the overnight with skies becoming partly to mostly clear. Winds will be breezy outside of gusty showers/storms with gusts to 25-30mph from the southwest. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s across the Treasure Coast and the mid 70s to low 80s to the north. Much cooler air will filter in behind the front overnight with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s north of Lake Kissimmee to Melbourne and the mid 50s to low 60s to the south. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Current-Tonight... Boating conditions will become poor to hazardous tonight behind a cold front that will sag across the waters today. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated lightning storms are forecast to develop into this afternoon some of which will be capable of wind gusts to 50-60mph, hail to 1-1.75" in diameter, occasional to frequent cloud to water lighting strikes, and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Rain and storm chances will dwindle overnight with mostly dry conditions after midnight. West to northwest winds around 10-15kts will increase into the overnight at 20-30kts with occasional gusts to 35-40kts over the offshore waters (20-60nm), as well as nearshore Volusia county. Seas are forecast to build overnight to 4-7ft nearshore and up to 8-10ft offshore and over the Gulf Stream. Tuesday-Wednesday (previous discussion)... Northerly winds 20-25kts early Tuesday decrease through the day, then become light and variable on Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the southern US. However, poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue, as seas will be slow to subside. Seas 7-10ft Tuesday morning become 3-4ft nearshore north of Sebastian Inlet by the evening, but remain up to 6-8ft in the Gulf Stream. Will see conditions improve by Wednesday afternoon, as seas fall to 2-4ft. No precipitation forecast through the period. Thursday-Friday... High pressure breaks down on Thursday, as a shortwave through digs through the southern US. This feature is forecast to develop a low pressure system over the GOMEX, which will then cross the Florida peninsula through late week. Model discrepancies exist on the placement of this low. However, increasing shower chances, with a few lightning storms are expected by Thursday night into Friday. Onshore flow around 8-12kts Thursday veers southeasterly late Thursday night and increases to 15-20kts. Then, winds become southerly at 15-20kts Friday. Seas 1-2ft building to 4-5ft, with up to 6ft well offshore, by late Friday afternoon. Seas up to 7ft forecast offshore Friday night. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1016 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 TAFs start off with MVFR/IFR conditions with low stratus and lighting storms forecast into the afternoon as a cold front moves east- southeast across central Florida. West to southwest winds at 10-15kts with gusts to 18-24kts will veer northwest behind the front into the late evening and early overnight. Isolated strong to severe storms are forecast this afternoon with the threat diminishing into the late evening hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 403 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure builds into the southern states behind the cold front Tuesday, then stretches into the Florida region on Wednesday. Much drier and cooler air will be advected into the local area by post-frontal northerly winds. Forecast PWATs mid- week as low as 0.2-0.5". Needless to say, no precipitation is forecast. Breezy northerly winds Tuesday morning will diminish into the afternoon, then become light on Wednesday, with a sea breeze at the coast. The big story will be the much cooler temperatures. After several days of well above normal temperatures, highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s, with lower 60s along the Volusia County coast, will likely come as a surprise to many. Temperatures then warm to near normal Wednesday, reaching the lower to mid-70s, with upper 70s inland from the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be well below normal Tuesday night, as skies clear and dew points plummet. Forecast lows fall into the 40s during this period. Elevated winds will also make temperatures feel like the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area Wednesday morning. Like daytime highs, temperatures Wednesday night will begin to warm, but remain below normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some mid-50s along the coast south of the Cape. Thursday-Saturday...Dry conditions prevail through the afternoon on Thursday, despite a breakdown of the ridge over the southern states. A shortwave will then dig through the Deep South, generating a low pressure system over the GOMEX. Models are in good agreement that this low will somewhere over the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night. However, there are discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF on exactly where the crossing takes place. The GFS takes a northerly track, while the Euro passes southward. Regardless, deeper moisture looks to return to east central Florida beginning Thursday night , with PWATs increasing to up to 1.6". While CAPE looks to be limited, have included a mention for a slight chance of lightning storms Friday into Friday evening. Instead, widespread rainfall, with some locally heavy rainfall possible, looks to be the main threat. PoPs Thursday night through Friday up to 70%, with the most rainfall occurring during the daytime hours on Friday. High cloud cover and precipitation keeps highs near-normal both days, in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Models diverge Saturday as the GFS rapidly takes the low northeastward along a cold front, ingesting it into a stronger low pressure over southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has the low linger along the Carolina coastline. Both solutions would lead to northerly flow, though wind speeds vary. Scattered showers persist Saturday as the low pulls away from shore, with lingering PoPs over the waters Saturday night, occasionally drifting onshore into the Treasure Coast. Temperatures remain near-normal Saturday. Sunday-Monday...Model differences persist Sunday into early next week, as the GFS suggests a trough over the eastern US, while the ECMWF retrogrades the earlier low closer to the Florida coast, where it deepens significantly. Both solutions maintain elevated winds over the Atlantic waters and along the coast. However, the difference in wind direction (onshore for the GFS and parallel to shore for the ECMWF) will make the difference for coastal/marine hazards. Given the differences, went with the NBM solution for the current forecast, which more closely resembles the GFS. Some lingering showers possible Sunday over the Atlantic and along the coast south of the Cape, then drier on Monday, though this is low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 48 62 42 / 70 10 0 0 MCO 80 52 67 46 / 70 20 0 0 MLB 81 55 66 47 / 80 30 0 0 VRB 84 57 69 47 / 60 30 0 0 LEE 76 48 67 44 / 80 10 0 0 SFB 78 50 66 44 / 70 20 0 0 ORL 79 52 67 47 / 70 20 0 0 FPR 84 57 69 46 / 60 30 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
#1173117 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:12 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1058 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Humid conditions are sitting across the island chain this morning with temperatures currently in the low 80s and dew points in the mid to upper 70s, and winds of 5 to 10 mph continue out of the southeast to south. Local radar is picking up thunderstorm activity off of the Southwest FLorida coast, but the boundary is moving so slowly that we are still expecting any residual shower in our area to hold off until later tonight. The forecast is still on track, so no updates or changes to the current forecast package are needed. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Gentle southeast to south breezes will turn around the clock today as a cold front approaches, with freshening breezes late tonight into Tuesday morning. Breezes continue to turn from northerly to easterly and diminish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Active weather at the end of the week will cause breezes to freshen again and begin to shift to the southwest to west by Friday night ahead of another late season cold front. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the day. Winds will continue to clock around to SW winds 5 to 10 knots, then becoming W to NW during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of and along an approaching cold front may impact the terminals with short periods of MVFR or IFR conditions tonight, but for the time being only VCSH is mentioned in the TAFs. && .CLIMATE... As we move through mid March, it appears that another winter has passed with the low temperature at Key West International Airport not dropping below 50F. The last time that Key West recorded a low temperature below 50F was on February 20 2015, when the low was 49F. Since then, 3313 consecutive days have seen the low temperature remain at or above 50F. This is the longest such streak on record. The second longest streak with low temperatures at or above 50F at Key West is 2906 days, running from January 31 1940 through January 14 1948. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 71 76 69 / 10 30 10 10 Marathon 87 71 78 69 / 10 40 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173116 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:42 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 936 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 934 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Recent satellite obs shows clouds rapidly clearing this morning. This has allowed temperatures to warm slightly faster than anticipated, so temps were nudged upwards to account for this. This brings in highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. Everything else seems on track, so nothing else was changed. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southwestern upper low remains over Arizona this morning, while the northern stream trough extends from Quebec southwestward to Iowa. An impulse ahead of the troughing could produce a few sprinkles early this morning, but that`s about it. The cooler, drier air has been slow to arrive, with dew points only now starting to drop over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The northern stream trough will move rapidly off the East Coast over the next 24-36 hours, putting the local area under northwesterly upper flow, if only briefly. Surface high pressure currently over the Dakotas will dive southward and be centered near the Louisiana coast by sunset Tuesday. As the drier air arrives this morning, clouds should diminish and it`ll become a bit on the breezy side by midday. Humidities will drop noticeably, to around 30 percent this afternoon. Fortunately, we got a good bit of rain yesterday, or there would have been a few fire weather concerns. The coldest air won`t have arrived this afternoon, and we tend to get a bit of compressional heating across the northern half of the area with northerly winds, so we should see some recovery in temperatures this afternoon to close to 70, with some possibility that might not be warm enough. Main forecast concern will be overnight lows tonight, with the potential for temperatures near or below freezing across northern portions of the area around sunrise Tuesday. It`s been several weeks since temperatures reached freezing anywhere in the CWA, and we`re past the mean last freeze date for any of our climate reporting stations, making freeze products necessary in all areas when applicable. Main wild card in forecasting overnight lows is whether the winds become light enough to allow the radiational cooling necessary to fall to or below freezing. NBM probabilities continue to show the main threat is to our southwest Mississippi counties, with the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana carrying somewhat of a lesser threat. One adjustment to the Freeze Watch area was to add Pointe Coupee Parish to the watch to better fit our watch and WFO LCH together. Will keep it as a watch for now and let the day shift take another look at the overnight wind forecast before upgrading, if need be. Considering the source region of the high pressure that will be centered over us tomorrow was in Canada, it makes sense that Tuesday highs will be cooler than today, struggling to get much past 60 in most areas. But at least there will be abundant sunshine and much less wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the northern stream trough losing its effect on the local area Tuesday night, the upper flow becomes more zonal across the northern Gulf Coast. Upper troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest will finally kick the Arizona upper low eastward in a much weakened state. As it opens up into a wave, it will move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. While both the GFS and ECMWF operational models both develop weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, the GFS solution is close enough to the northern Gulf Coast to spread rain into the area, mainly Thursday and Thursday night. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, but at least for now, severe weather and heavy rainfall appear to be rather minimal threats. Once the shortwave reaches the East Coast, it phases with norther stream energy and closes off again, which will allow high pressure to become dominant over the lower Mississippi River Valley for the weekend. That will keep the local area dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal, with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Main aviation concern will be gusty north winds, especially at KNEW and KMSY, this afternoon and evening, when gusts to 30 knots are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While winds are short of advisory criteria at present, expect that to change over the next 6 hours or so, and am not planning any adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory at this time. A few gusts to 35 knots aren`t absolutely out of the question this evening, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Winds drop off pretty quickly Tuesday morning, with less hazardous conditions expected for the remainder of the week. The one limitation to that idea is if low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday/Friday develops more than expected. If that happens, forecast wind speeds at that point would need boosted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 63 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 68 36 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 70 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 68 43 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 69 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 71 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173115 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1028 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Morning analysis reveals the main surface boundary well out into the Atlantic, arcing down through northern Florida, with some shower activity still ongoing. There is a secondary surface trough/dewpoint boundary about to slip through the region, turning winds more northerly and dropping dewpoints into the 40s and even some 30s. Boundary will be advancing through the CWA through the rest of the day ushering in cooler and substantially drier air into the region. Per satellite imagery, cloud cover is thinning west to east, although there may be another push of thicker cloud cover into the region through the afternoon. Temperature-wise: Certainly cooler than in recent days, although we should be about to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s before the arrival of the cooler air. Tonight: Pressure gradient will increase to around 5 mbs across the forecast area by mid-evening. The forecast will feature NW wind gusts between 20-25 mph during the evening. In addition, strong CAA is forecast overnight. In fact, the H85 temperature over KCHS and KSAV will cool from 5C at 0Z to near -4C by 6Z. CAA will end late tonight with the pressure gradient relaxing through the rest of the night. Given the fresh CAA, decreasing winds, and clear sky, low temperatures are expected to range around 10 degrees below normal. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures may approach freezing across a corridor from Jenkins to Allendale Counties. However, winds in excess of 5 mph and RH below 60 percent will not favor frost development. Min temperatures should favor values in the mid 30s along the I-95 corridor to around 40 degrees across the coastal counties. Lake Winds: In the wake of a secondary cold front, a steep pressure gradient and strong cold air advection will rapidly develop across Lake Moultrie this evening, decreasing late tonight. Northwest wind gusts are forecast to gust to around 25 mph tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 PM until 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will largely dominate the surface pattern during this period, although a dry cold front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Air mass remains dry and there are no notable forcing mechanisms in play, so rain-free conditions are expected through Thursday. Temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday when highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s, before moderating back to around normal. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s Tuesday night, then more mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. Upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast Friday into Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and possibly strengthen while moving near/off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWats creep up to around 1.25 inches, and with strong isentropic ascent, showers should break out late Thursday night/Friday morning and continue through the day and into Friday night. This event should bring a decent amount of rain to the area. Consensus keeps instability largely offshore so no thunder is included in the forecast at this time. The aforementioned low should continue to depart over the weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning, rain chances should become confined to the coastal waters. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs: Based of IR satellite and surface observations, the cold front was located near KJZI, pushing east. Winds in the wake of the front will shift from the northwest at 10 kts with VFR conditions. Winds over KSAV are forecast to develop gusts to around 20 kts by 18Z, remaining through the rest of the day. This evening, the pressure gradient will increase with strong CAA. Northwest winds are forecast to strengthen early this evening, with gusts around 25 kts. As the pressure gradient and CAA decreases late tonight, winds should decrease to around 10 kts by 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers possible Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Today, a cold front will sweep across the marine zones early this morning. Northwest winds should favor values of 10 to 15 kts this morning, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 1 to 2 ft today. Tonight, a secondary cold front is expected to push across the marine zones this evening. Northwest winds will rapidly strengthen through the evening, with gales developing outside the CHS Harbor by late this evening. A Gale Warning has been posted for all waters outside the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 9 AM. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 6 AM. Seas should build through most of the night. Peak wave heights are expected during the pre-dawn hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions should markedly improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston county waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near/off the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is potential for conditions to reach advisory levels again. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173114 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 957 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Lowered late morning and early afternoon PoPs based on radar trends. The rest of the forecast looks on track. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will finish sweeping southeast through the forecast area this morning, followed by gusty northwest winds this afternoon that will usher in a cool and dry air mass. A light freeze is possible tonight in some Alabama and Georgia counties, A light frost is possible on Wednesday morning in colder inland pockets under the influence of light winds and efficient radiational cooling. A surface low will track across the Gulf on Thursday night. It is then likely to pass south of the area and across the Florida Peninsula on Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Light shower activity should be exiting the Florida Big Bend through the early morning hours as the cold front finally pushes through the CWA. In the cold fronts wake, dry air will be advecting into the region throughout the day, which will quickly scour out any lingering clouds by mid-day, with near clear skies expected by the evening. Across the upper levels, a late season trough is expected to dig south into south central Georgia by tonight, which will aid in the cold air advection across the region as 500mb heights fall areawide. In conjunction with the aforementioned height falls, surface pressure will be quickly increasing throughout the day as high pressure pushes into the region today. This will lead to a tight pressure gradient across the region as well as gusty afternoon winds. While temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s areawide, the potential for frost is looking less likely as winds look to remain elevated through the overnight hours. RH values from 06-12 UTC look to peak around 60%, which is low for frost development. While frost is unlikely, there could be the potential for patchy frost in sheltered locations where ground moisture may lead to micro-climates of higher RH across portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These locations have the best chances for frost development given the cooler low temperatures forecast tonight. High temperatures today will struggle against cold air advection; however, they are expected to climb into the mid 60s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Deep west-northwest upper level flow will keep the weather cool and dry. A cool continental surface high will drop south through eastern Texas, with a ridge axis extending east. This ridge axis will pass south across the service area on Tuesday, then hang out over the northern Gulf on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given its proximity on Tuesday night, winds will readily go calm. Clear skies and dry air will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. So early Wednesday morning will be the most favorable time for our typically colder spots to bottom out in the mid 30s and support some patchy frost. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The cutoff upper low which has loitered over the Southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico will finally budge this week and start to move straight east. As the upper trough axis crosses the Southern Plains on Thursday, upper level diffluence will overspread the Gulf on Thursday night, and a dual jet structure will be favorable for a strengthening surface low moving east across the Gulf. The most likely track would take the surface low across the FL Peninsula on Friday. This most likely track would keep the forecast area on the cooler and more stable poleward side of the low, with rain and showers, and perhaps some embedded elevated thunder over our FL counties. However, there is a notable cluster of ensemble members that take the low more northeast across the Big Bend region and far south Georgia. If this left hand track were to verify, then a warm, moist unstable air mass would have a chance to spread northward as well, with the structure of the low possibly supporting hodographs and a shear profile favorable to all convective modes around Friday. Again, this outcome will be highly conditional on a more left hand track of the low. Regardless of the track that the low takes, once it moves out into the Atlantic, dry northerly surface winds on its back side will arrive in time for next weekend. Despite the northerly winds, the air mass next weekend looks quite seasonable, with near normal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR to IFR restrictions are currently being observed across all terminals this morning. These conditions look to improve through the morning hours to VFR levels before 18 UTC at all terminals. Gusty northwest winds to around 20-25 knots will be present at all terminals during the afternoon hours, but are expected to relax by the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will sweep across the waters early this morning. Northwest breezes behind the front will become strong by this evening, with a few gusts approaching gale-force tonight. A high pressure ridge extending eastward from Texas will quickly settle over the waters Tuesday afternoon, remaining in place through Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will quickly move east across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday. North of the low, easterly breezes will develop, possibly becoming strong at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level trough will push through the region today, which will lead to gusty northwest winds through the mid morning and afternoon hours. These strong winds combined with mixing heights around 4,400 to 4,600 feet will lead to high dispersions for areas primarily west of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Although dry air will be advecting into the region, minimum RH values today will only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect much lower minimum RH values on Tuesday as dry air continues to push into the area. Minimum RH values on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s; however, winds will be near calm as high pressure settles into the region. Although RH values will be low, there are no fire weather concerns at this time outside of high dispersions given the recent rainfall across the region the last week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Bainbridge gage expected to drop below flood stage later today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 39 63 39 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 70 39 62 44 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 66 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 66 34 60 37 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 37 61 38 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 74 39 64 36 / 60 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 42 60 45 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ |
#1173113 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1010 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 945 PM Monday...Cold front has moved offshore to our south, and dry air advection has kicked in with dewpoints in the lower 30s for the coastal plain. Winds have shifter to become N/NW`rly, gusting to 15-20kts inland and 20-25kts for OBX. Temps shouldn`t rise too much more today with cold air advection counteracting daytime heating. Highs still expected to be in the low-mid 60s, upper 50s OBX, with highest temps along the Crystal Coast. The stout, vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. This will lead to an end to the partial clearing experienced in the wake of the front as cloud coverage builds back over the FA. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL may be enough to support some showers this evening and tonight, but moisture is really lacking with PWATs from last night`s sounding already below one inch continue to drop off to 0.5-0.75in at best. However, a weak soundbreeze for Nern zones could create enough convergence and moisture pooling to spark some late afternoon/early evening showers. Continue carrying a slight chance for areas near Alligator River where soundbreeze(s) could converge and NOBX where the flow aloft would carry any showers that do pop up. Maintained PoPs for the Crystal Coast where the seabreeze will be pinned to the coast, but opted to keep them just below SChc. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 0335 Monday...Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through most of the FA overnight. Again, moisture is really lacking behind the SFC front and widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected but the mid and upper level dynamics can`t be ignored. Carry SChc- Chc PoPs through most of the overnight period with transit of the trough axis, best chance over the coast where more moisture in the mid and low levels will be. Any rain chances push offshore quickly in the early morning hours as the trough axis reaches the coast around sunrise. Max QPF overnight around a tenth of an in. Zones on the W of the trough axis will experience a more typical "post cold front" environment with a brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and 10+kt winds persisting. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. CAA continues through Tuesday with breezy W-NW winds and temps well below normal with highs in the 50s. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0650 Monday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Relatively light winds will remain SWerly ahead of the front, which is currently approaching the coastal TAF sites, and then quickly veering to NWerly and becoming gustier behind it. Winds become Werly this afternoon as vertically stacked trough approaches, again becoming breezy NWerly overnight MON night. Another rd of precip possible late this evening into the overnight period as the trough axis crosses over the area and pushes offshore Tues morning. Best chance for showers over the immediate coast so have only included VCSH for EWN and OAJ to cover precip probability. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have added a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Skies clear rapidly and winds lay down some once the trough axis clears. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Tue and Wed, with gusts 15-25 kt each afternoon. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0700 Monday...Front currently located near Pamlico River Eward toward Ocracoke will continue pushing S through the morning. Currently drawing up an MWS for Nerly surge of winds behind the front that will reach SCA criteria but will be relatively short lived. Previous Disco...Currently SWerly winds continue at 10-15 kts with a few of the outer buoys gusting upwards of 20 kts with 2-4ft seas with the occasional 5 feet near the edges of our central waters marine zones. Winds expected to remain sub SCA but some gusts approaching 25kt possible near GStream. Showers spreading from SW to NE possible overnight ahead of the front after which, winds will become N-NWerly, peaking 15-20kt immediately behind the front but gradually decreasing through the morning becoming Nerly AoB 10kt this evening, but this relaxing of the winds will be short lived as stout NWerly CAA on the order of 10-20G30kt developing late tonight which has prompted the issuance of SCAs for all coastal and inland waters. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through the day MON, with some 4-5 footers possible for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Winds will slowly relax Tuesday with conditions progged to drop below SCA criteria by late morning and early afternoon. However, moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Mon...Slightly elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Drier Tue with min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts to 20 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173112 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 952 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through the area this morning followed by breezy conditions and below normal temperatures thru Tue night. Milder temps and continued dry conditions to occur thru the mid-week period. Rain chances return Fri thru Sat as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast States Atlantic coast. && .UPDATE... Fractured cold front is mostly just offshore at this point, although pieces of it still remain just onshore across northeast SC. NNW winds have taken over across most of the area, with dewpoints dropping quite rapidly, as expected. This will be a pesky feature to keep up with today. Adjusted the hourly dewpoint forecast using a blend of HRRR, ADJLAV, and CONSShort data. That appears to be holding decently steady over the last hour or so. No major changes coming down the track at this time. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is currently pushing into the far inland portions of our CWA, outrunning the trough aloft. Winds will start to come around to the west and then the northwest with its passage. The front will be offshore by the morning, dry air filtering in gradually. Enough moisture should hang on in the column through the day for there to be a mix of clouds and sun through the day. A decent breeze should linger through the day so went a bit milder on highs, low to mid 60s. Similarly went lower on the dewpoints due to decent mixing. Increased fire danger might be possible as aftn RH values dip below 30 percent with gusts up to 20 mph. The upper trough will be passing overhead tonight, a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of it. SE NC could see some brief, light showers late this evening with the passage of this disturbance. NW winds will also increase at this time, gusting around 25-30 mph. Lows will fall into the mid 30s, but with the strong overnight breeze frost formation is unlikely. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CAA will peak early Tue via various thickness schemes, followed by the offshore movement of the 5H trof axis during Tue. NAA followed by WAA by late Tue as 5H heights/1k-5h thicknesses rise. Sfc pg remains tightened Tue thru Wed with breezy conditions resulting, especially during daylight hrs both days. The WAA Wed may push temps above 70 for highs. Otherwise, temps well below normal Tue, rise to at or just above normal Wed thru Wed night. Next dry CFP slated late Wed/Wed nite as flow drives sfc ridging out of Central Canada to the Carolinas. At this point, winds stay active enough to keep temps aoa 40 along with no frost issues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Thu thru Thu night, flow aloft basically NW that backs to westerly. Under CAA initially that becomes neutral. Temps to run at or slightly below normal. Skies generally cloud free initially that will see high level moisture late Thu night from the south. Southern stream mid-level s/w trof to gain steam in the Gulf of Mexico Fri. GFS indicates a full Gale/Storm off the Carolina Coasts Fri night into Sat as the sfc low and mid-level s/w trof lift NE-ward. The European on the other hand keeps it benign early in the weekend, then closes/cutoffs the upper low off the Carolina Coast late in the weekend with sfc Gale/Storm possible. Overall, will have rain chances capped around 50% later Fri thru Sat night with some low chance pops mainly at or off the coasts Sun/Sun night. Have indicated mainly stratiform rains Fri into Fri night with isolated thunder at and off the coasts late Fri night into Sat as the low passes by, moving along an offshore/coastal waters coastal trof that does not get pulled inland but comes close to the immediate coast. Lot of questions remain with this system especially with various model continuity. Temps Fri thru Sun to remain at or below normal due to clouds and pcpn. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. NW winds near 10 kts will gradually become more westerly through today. A disturbance moving over the area this evening into tonight will bring gusty NW winds near 20-25 kts. Low chances for showers at KILM at the same time but low confidence so will let the next put them in if confidence is higher. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NW winds 10-15 kts will decrease to near 10 kts this afternoon becoming SW once more ahead of another disturbance. As this disturbance approaches through the evening into the night, winds will reach SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming NW once more around midnight. Seas near 2 ft will increase to 2-4 ft tonight with a strong NW wind wave. Tuesday through Friday night...SCA thresholds will be ongoing early Tue before temporarily dropping below during Tue as the sfc pg relaxes slightly and a change from CAA to NAA occurs. The sfc pg tightens Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next cold front. With WAA, am suspect that SW-WSW winds may eclipse SCA thresholds even when combined with the re-tightening of the sfc pg. Nevertheless, potential is there to highlight the SCA possibility. Dry CFP Wed night, followed by CAA and the sfc pg relaxing during Thu. Look for wind shift to the N-NE Thu, becoming E thruout with increasing speeds Fri. Coastal trof to develop just offshore Fri, with E winds 15 to 20 kt within coastal waters, and SE at SCA thresholds on the other side of the trof. Will see SCA thresholds eclipsed by seas Fri/Fri night. The seas will have a decent fetch for which to build upon and as a result, will observe the hier seas just offshore bleed into the coastal waters Fri/Fri night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173111 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:56 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 941 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures for much of the work week with mainly dry, gusty weather except for a few rain/snow showers possible sometime Wednesday and/or Wednesday night. A period of unsettled weather is also possible sometime this weekend...but confidence is low at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM Update... Area of mid level status is beginning to break up over eastern MA and move offshore. Skies will become clear briefly this morning before more diurnal cumulus form early this afternoon. Gusty winds have already started up across much of the northern MA and will spread south and east today. expecting gusts to peak early this afternoon, then slowly diminish into the evening. 320 AM Update... * Partly sunny & breezy today with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s An approaching shortwave has backed the upper level flow a bit early this morning. This has resulted in mid-high level cloudiness overspreading much of the region. There is even the risk for a brief sprinkle or two early this morning towards the southeast New England coast...but not worth inserting into the forecast at this time. We do expect this band of mid-high level cloudiness to push east of the region later this morning. This should result in skies becoming partly sunny...but colder temps aloft moving in from the west will allow a scattered to broken deck of CU to develop later today. 925T around 0C/+1C with good mixing on westerly flow aloft should allow for high temps to top off mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. So it will be cooler than what we saw over the weekend...but still a bit above normal for this time of year. Bufkit soundings indicate westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph by late morning/early afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Points... * Dry/Seasonable tonight with lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s * Partly sunny/breezy Tue with highs mainly in the middle-upper 40s Details... Tonight... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will generate a seasonable westerly flow of air into southern New England. Although the winds will likely not decouple in most places given a modest WNW low level jet. Nonetheless...850T dropping to between -8C and -10C will result in overnight low temps mainly in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Tuesday... Upper trough across the northeast will generate a cool west to northwest flow of air aloft again on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow along with the cold pool aloft should allow for a scattered to broken deck of diurnal CU to develop again...yielding partly sunny skies later in the day. Temperatures a few degrees colder aloft than today...so expect Tue highs mainly in the middle to upper 40s. Bufkit indicates westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * A quick moving front/system slides through Wed/Wed Night bringing light showers. Temps warmer than normal. * Drier on Thu/Fri, but cooler and breezy. * Could turn unsettled this weekend, but lots of uncertainty on how things evolve. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night... Cyclonic flow in place through this period. A fast moving shortwave trough digs from the western/central Great Lakes early on Wed into the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. The shortwave lifts into the Gulf of Maine/northern New England Wed Night. A weak warm front lifts into/through southern New England Tue Night into Wed. The trailing cold front pushes through late Wed/Wed Night. Still a tricky forecast in how wet it will be across the region, especially earlier in the day. Due to this have generally stuck with the NBM as it is mostly reasonable, but did bump up our PoPs a bit as the stronger cold front slides through later on Wed into Wed Night. The mitigating factors through this period for precip is we are fairly dry with PWATs between 0.2-0.4 inches, which is between the 25th to avg for this time of year per SPC sounding climo for CHH. On top of this we are well mixed within the PBL per Bufkit soundings, which should help mix down some drier dew points. For now have kept more spotty showers before having better chances of precip later in the day. High temps in the 40s across the higher terrain to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With the cold front and later in the day there is the better shot for more widespread showers. For most this will be rain, but the higher terrain has the potential for snow showers. There could even be a bit of accumulation. Not out of the question lower elevations see snow before things end. Right now there is discrepancy on how much QPF we can ring out in this dry airmass. Given the uncertainty stuck with the NBM. Best shot is across far northwestern MA for AOA 1 inch of snow over 24 hrs of mod to high (50-70+ percent chance) and even some low probs (10-30 percent) for 3+ inches per the GEFS/EPS guidance. The GEPS is essentially nil for the 3+ inch probs. Further east along the Route 2 corridor probs are low to mod (10-40 percent chance). Stay tuned for future updates. Anticipating it to be breezy on Wed, but especially Wed Night in wake of the cold front. Will have W to WNW flow with the LLJ increasing to 25-35 kts. Stuck with the NBM for now as its higher winds/gusts are reasonable given the cold air advection and LLJ in place. Thursday through Friday... Flow somewhat cyclonic during this timeframe. A ridge axis will be over the Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley early on Thu. This builds into the TN Valley by late Thu. The ridge axis builds into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic on Fri, but flattens out a bit. High pressure begins to nudge in from the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Thu and just offshore of the Mid Atlantic on Fri. Dry and quiet weather expected through this period as high pressure nudges in. Anticipating gusty winds across southern New England on Thu. Will be fairly well mixed with WNW to NW flow under cold air advection and 925 hPa winds of 25-35 kts. Shouldn`t be terribly difficult to mix down given the environment. So should have gusts of 35-40 mph through much of the day. Given the well mixed boundary layer it won`t be tough to bring down -20 to -30 degree dew points near the top of the PBL. Due to this lowered dew points/RH values to the 15th percentile of guidance for now. Did bump up temps to the 75th percentile of guidance given the setup. Highs on Thu will be right around normal for this time of year in the 40s. Should still be a bit breezy on Fri, but the high will relax the pressure gradient as it builds closer to our region. Temperatures still right around seasonable levels. This Weekend... Considerable uncertainty for this upcoming weekend. A trough will be located somewhere over the Southeastern US late on Fri. This lifts northeastward toward our region on Sat and perhaps Sun depending on how things evolve. Lot of uncertainty in if a coastal system slides up our way. Given the spread in guidance have stuck with the NBM for now for this timeframe. Appears that it could be wet if the trough lifts up into our area. There are some indications that the trough cuts off to our south/southeast, which would keep us dry. At this point probs are moderate (30-70 percent) of 24 hr QPF on both days AOA 0.1 inches. There are low probs of (10-30 percent) of 1+ inch of QPF with the risk being highlighted over RI/SE MA. Can see the uncertainty quite clearly via the large spread in MSLP low pressure center tracks per the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Temps still near to perhaps slightly cooler than seasonable. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. VFR. W winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots developing by roughly 12-15Z. Mid level clouds linger with bases around 6-8 kft. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 knots. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Another round of mid level CU with bases of 5-8 kft. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High Confidence. Upper trough over the northeast will generate a continued cool WNW flow of air through Tuesday. Decent mixing should promote some 20 to 25 knot wind gusts at times...especially near shore during the afternoon hours. It is very borderline small craft conditions...but bulk of the time conditions will be below small craft criteria. Therefore...only opted SCA headlines for Tuesday across our southern waters. This is for marginal 5 foot seas and 20 to 25 knot wind gusts. Later shifts may need to consider additional marginal small craft headlines for Tuesday...but confidence not high enough to do that right now. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today and Tuesday... Minimum afternoon relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today and Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon on both days. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we opted to issue a SPS for CT and RI due to elevated fire weather concerns today and possibly again on Tuesday. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173110 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:41 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 928 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Monitoring patchy fog across Southwest Florida that has been burning off over the past hour or so. Besides the fog, another warm and muggy day is ahead as surface flow veers southwesterly ahead of a weak frontal passage later this evening. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon, with best coverage across Palm Beach County where a strong storm cannot be completely ruled out. Some convective parameters are in place for stronger storms based on the 12Z MFL sounding, although the timing of the front will be too late to initiate widespread stronger storms. With a lack of significant convective forcing, most of the day should remain dry today with partly cloudy skies expected through the morning and a good portion of the afternoon. Clouds will begin to increase by the middle of the afternoon as the front nears, and a few showers begin to develop near eastern metro areas. FROPA is expected sometime this evening into the overnight hours, ushering in a much cooler and drier air mass to start the day on Tuesday. No significant changes were made with this forecast update. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary, with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the front further south and closer to SoFlo. Ensembles/local solutions show agreement in keeping the southern half of the peninsula in the warm sector ahead of the FROPA, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little to no impacts are anticipated tomorrow from this feature over SoFlo, with some isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Long range models keep generally good weather conditions across SoFlo Through much of the work week, with a huge high pressure cell dominating much of the east half of the CONUS and the GOMEX. The sfc ridge slowly pushes eastward and flattens by mid week, which will keep a generally easterly wind in place through early Friday. Conditions begin to change late Friday and into Saturday as a trough erodes the ridge and sends a frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula. Model consensus remains low regarding potential timing and location of this feature. However, it seems that this one will bring better chances of widespread showers and possible thunderstorm activity. The long range forecast will surely continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available. Afternoon highs are expected to remain near or cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-upper 70s through much of the period. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb, then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, particularly near/around PBI this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 67 76 61 / 10 20 10 0 West Kendall 90 65 77 57 / 10 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 90 65 77 60 / 10 20 10 0 Homestead 89 66 77 61 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 65 74 61 / 10 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 90 65 76 60 / 10 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 88 62 71 57 / 30 20 0 0 Boca Raton 90 64 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Naples 83 62 76 56 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173109 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:27 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 926 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf No changes to ongoing forecast as showers and isolated t`storms will continue to track across NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor this morning with rainfall ending and decreasing clouds this afternoon. Becoming breezy and much cooler tonight behind the frontal passage. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A cold front is located from SC, across southeast GA, and to the central FL panhandle. Weak pre-frontal trough appears to extend southwest to northeast over northeast FL. Broad mid/upper level troughing extends across the eastern U.S., with a strong shortwave trough diving southeast across the Midwest. Locally, scattered mainly light showers extend across the area and some instability extends across northeast FL with MUCAPE of about 500-1000 J/kg, highest over toward the I-75 corridor. Upstream, some scattered weak convection is noted across the northeast GOMEX. The cold front will slowly shift southward today and when combined with increasing lift with shortwave energy will support scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today across northeast FL. The environment is supportive of isolated strong storms, with forecast guidance showing MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 kt, with the main focus across the srn most zones. SPC has outline a marginal risk of severe storms in this area today, with mainly a wind threat threat and lower hail threat. Most of the activity will be south of the area 5-6 pm today. Skies will be mostly cloudy through at least early aftn with decreasing cloudiness developing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the northwest during the day, but not reach more than about 10-15 mph, with highs today expected in the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s. Tonight, skies will clear up tonight except for some thin cirrus. A strong pressure gradient develops with stronger pressure rises of 2-4 mb/3 hours developing as high pressure tries to build in quickly behind the cold front. Gusty winds from the northwest anticipated with winds of 15-25 mph with a few gusts of at least 30 mph. Much colder tonight with lows from the upper 30s to lower and mid 40s, and wind chills becoming widespread in the lower to mid 30s inland areas by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure building into the area will bring dry weather over much of the upcoming week. Northwest flow will allow for cooler air to tickle in, leading to temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will ease on Tuesday as high pressure continues to build into the area leading to a shift to light westerly winds by Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to trend upward to sit at just near normal. A shift in the winds is expected during the morning hours on Thursday as the high pressure moves off towards the northeast ahead of a low pressure system over the Gulf. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Precipitation chances return as a low pressure system over the Gulf is expected to move over the Florida peninsula from Thursday night through Friday. The latest GFS run indicates a more northerly track as it moves from southwest to northeast. As such, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in over north central Florida and spread to the rest of the local area as the low moves through. Estimates of 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with higher locally higher amounts expected over north central Florida. By the weekend, dry conditions look to become reestablished as the low moves off towards the northeast and high pressure builds in over the area. Below normal temperatures during the forecast period are expected as daytime temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s for NE FL and the upper 60s for SE GA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Widespread low clouds (IFR/MVFR) conds with the frontal passage this morning with most of the convection pushing south of I-10 corridor and will likely only impact GNV/SGJ through the mid morning hours with VFR conds expected at all TAF sites as NW winds increase to 15G25 knots by the evening hours and continue through the nighttime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds are westerly about 10-15 kt and seas noted to be mostly around 2 ft or less. Cold front will slowly push across the area waters today and will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast FL. Northwest to north winds will rapidly increase tonight with enough support to trigger a gale warning for area waters, with gale conditions for at least 4-8 hours. Will probably be a short duration small craft advisory for Tuesday morning, but winds will decrease quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds continue to be light into Wed and early Thu as high pressure ridge extends across the region. Winds will increase Thu night as the next low pressure system moves into the eastern GOMEX. Still looks like the low pres system will scoot just south of the marine area Fri night, and then into the western Atlantic Sat morning. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 37 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 72 41 61 42 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 73 40 63 39 / 60 0 0 0 SGJ 73 43 61 41 / 80 0 0 0 GNV 76 40 66 38 / 70 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 66 37 / 70 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
#1173108 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:12 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 908 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 906 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Dense fog was not as widespread this morning, therefore have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory that was in effect for Polk County. The first showers and storms of the day are coming ashore along the Nature Coast and will continue to spread south and east through the day. There continues to be a Marginal Risk for severe storms through the day with damaging winds possible. The only changes made to current forecast was the update to fog and added a Small Craft Advisory valid for tonight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise forecast is tracking for now. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 906 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail with some brief MVFR/IFR in passing showers and storms. West-southwest winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible through the day, then becoming northerly by this evening and continuing through Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 906 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An area of low pressure and cold front will push across the waters through the day with scattered showers and storms possible in the vicinity of the front as well as increasing winds and seas behind the front with Small Craft Advisory conditions late tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds and seas will subside late Tuesday into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north allowing for the the gradient to weaken. The next weather system will move through the gulf waters on Friday with scattered showers and storms possible once again as well as gusty winds and building seas.| && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 51 69 50 / 60 10 0 0 FMY 85 60 75 53 / 20 20 0 0 GIF 83 51 69 47 / 70 10 0 0 SRQ 82 53 73 50 / 50 20 0 0 BKV 79 44 69 40 / 70 10 0 0 SPG 78 54 67 55 / 50 20 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
#1173107 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 737 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 730 AM, based of IR satellite and surface observations, the cold front was located near the SC Lowcountry coast, pushing east. Winds in the wake of the front may surge to 10-15 mph early this morning, then settle to 10 mph or less by mid- morning. KCLX detected a few showers over outer GA waters, expected to push east of the marine zones by 9 AM. During the daylight hours today, winds will remain from the west- northwest with a gradual decrease in cloud cover. Given the increasing insolation and 1000-850 mb thicknesses of 1355 m or greater through this afternoon, high temperatures should range around 70 degrees. Near term guidance indicates a secondary cold front will sweep across the forecast area late this afternoon into early this evening. In the wake of the front, the pressure gradient will increase to around 5 mbs across the forecast area by mid-evening. The forecast will feature NW wind gusts between 20-25 mph during the evening. In addition, strong CAA is forecast overnight. In fact, the H85 temperature over KCHS and KSAV will cool from 5C at 0Z to near -4C by 6Z. CAA will end late tonight with the pressure gradient relaxing through the rest of the night. Given the fresh CAA, decreasing winds, and clear sky, low temperatures are expected to range around 10 degrees below normal. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures may approach freezing across a corridor from Jenkins to Allendale Counties. However, winds in excess of 5 mph and RH below 60 percent will not favor frost development. Min temperatures should favor values in the mid 30s along the I-95 corridor to around 40 degrees across the coastal counties. Lake Winds: In the wake of a secondary cold front, a steep pressure gradient and strong cold air advection will rapidly develop across Lake Moultrie this evening, decreasing late tonight. Northwest wind gusts are forecast to gust to around 25 mph tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 PM until 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will largely dominate the surface pattern during this period, although a dry cold front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Air mass remains dry and there are no notable forcing mechanisms in play, so rain-free conditions are expected through Thursday. Temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday when highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s, before moderating back to around normal. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s Tuesday night, then more mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. Upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast Friday into Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and possibly strengthen while moving near/off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWats creep up to around 1.25 inches, and with strong isentropic ascent, showers should break out late Thursday night/Friday morning and continue through the day and into Friday night. This event should bring a decent amount of rain to the area. Consensus keeps instability largely offshore so no thunder is included in the forecast at this time. The aforementioned low should continue to depart over the weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning, rain chances should become confined to the coastal waters. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs: Based of IR satellite and surface observations, the cold front was located near KJZI, pushing east. Winds in the wake of the front will shift from the northwest at 10 kts with VFR conditions. Winds over KSAV are forecast to develop gusts to around 20 kts by 18Z, remaining through the rest of the day. This evening, the pressure gradient will increase with strong CAA. Northwest winds are forecast to strengthen early this evening, with gusts around 25 kts. As the pressure gradient and CAA decreases late tonight, winds should decrease to around 10 kts by 9Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers possible Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Today, a cold front will sweep across the marine zones early this morning. Northwest winds should favor values of 10 to 15 kts this morning, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 1 to 2 ft today. Tonight, a secondary cold front is expected to push across the marine zones this evening. Northwest winds will rapidly strengthen through the evening, with gales developing outside the CHS Harbor by late this evening. A Gale Warning has been posted for all waters outside the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 9 AM. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 6 AM. Seas should build through most of the night. Peak wave heights are expected during the pre-dawn hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions should markedly improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston county waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near/off the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is potential for conditions to reach advisory levels again. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173106 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southwestern upper low remains over Arizona this morning, while the northern stream trough extends from Quebec southwestward to Iowa. An impulse ahead of the troughing could produce a few sprinkles early this morning, but that`s about it. The cooler, drier air has been slow to arrive, with dew points only now starting to drop over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The northern stream trough will move rapidly off the East Coast over the next 24-36 hours, putting the local area under northwesterly upper flow, if only briefly. Surface high pressure currently over the Dakotas will dive southward and be centered near the Louisiana coast by sunset Tuesday. As the drier air arrives this morning, clouds should diminish and it`ll become a bit on the breezy side by midday. Humidities will drop noticeably, to around 30 percent this afternoon. Fortunately, we got a good bit of rain yesterday, or there would have been a few fire weather concerns. The coldest air won`t have arrived this afternoon, and we tend to get a bit of compressional heating across the northern half of the area with northerly winds, so we should see some recovery in temperatures this afternoon to close to 70, with some possibility that might not be warm enough. Main forecast concern will be overnight lows tonight, with the potential for temperatures near or below freezing across northern portions of the area around sunrise Tuesday. It`s been several weeks since temperatures reached freezing anywhere in the CWA, and we`re past the mean last freeze date for any of our climate reporting stations, making freeze products necessary in all areas when applicable. Main wild card in forecasting overnight lows is whether the winds become light enough to allow the radiational cooling necessary to fall to or below freezing. NBM probabilities continue to show the main threat is to our southwest Mississippi counties, with the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana carrying somewhat of a lesser threat. One adjustment to the Freeze Watch area was to add Pointe Coupee Parish to the watch to better fit our watch and WFO LCH together. Will keep it as a watch for now and let the day shift take another look at the overnight wind forecast before upgrading, if need be. Considering the source region of the high pressure that will be centered over us tomorrow was in Canada, it makes sense that Tuesday highs will be cooler than today, struggling to get much past 60 in most areas. But at least there will be abundant sunshine and much less wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the northern stream trough losing its effect on the local area Tuesday night, the upper flow becomes more zonal across the northern Gulf Coast. Upper troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest will finally kick the Arizona upper low eastward in a much weakened state. As it opens up into a wave, it will move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. While both the GFS and ECMWF operational models both develop weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, the GFS solution is close enough to the northern Gulf Coast to spread rain into the area, mainly Thursday and Thursday night. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, but at least for now, severe weather and heavy rainfall appear to be rather minimal threats. Once the shortwave reaches the East Coast, it phases with norther stream energy and closes off again, which will allow high pressure to become dominant over the lower Mississippi River Valley for the weekend. That will keep the local area dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal, with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Main aviation concern will be gusty north winds, especially at KNEW and KMSY, this afternoon and evening, when gusts to 30 knots are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While winds are short of advisory criteria at present, expect that to change over the next 6 hours or so, and am not planning any adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory at this time. A few gusts to 35 knots aren`t absolutely out of the question this evening, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Winds drop off pretty quickly Tuesday morning, with less hazardous conditions expected for the remainder of the week. The one limitation to that idea is if low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday/Friday develops more than expected. If that happens, forecast wind speeds at that point would need boosted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 65 36 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 67 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 65 43 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 68 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173105 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A much cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area today in the wake of a cold front. A northwesterly flow aloft will lead to building sfc high pressure across the area. Skies will clear by late this morning with high temps in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Sfc high pressure settles over the area tonight resulting in lighter winds. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s inland to upper 30s near the coast. As a result, a freeze warning is in effect for areas north of the coastal counties. Clear and cool conditions continue on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. /13 SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Weak upper ridging moves over the Southeast as a weakening upper level shortwave trough moves over the Plains. Surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing light easterly flow to the forecast area by Thursday morning. The airmass over the forecast area has begun to modify as isentropic upglide brings Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and from there northeastward over the forecast area. Temperatures see an uptick, with low temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 Tuesday night rising into the lower to mid 40s inland with upper 40s along the coast Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday range from the low 70s inland to around 70 along the coast. /16 LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The shortwave trough over the Plains passes over the Southeast Thursday night through Friday, with a weak shortwave trough passing over marine portions of the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. This combination of passing energy brings isentropic upglide showers to the forecast area beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday morning. Guidance is advertising the highest PoPs south of the coast, closer to a stalled surface boundary from earlier in the week, with better upglide present. Instability is also limited to areas south of the coast, so have left any mention of rumbles to marine portions of the forecast area, and limited at that. With a drier airmass to moisten over land portions of the forecast area (relative to over the Gulf), when combined with the progressive nature of the shortwave trough, rainfall amounts are expected to be limited over land areas, so no water issues are noted at this time. Temperatures will see a bit of a downturn Thursday through Friday due to the rain cooling and increased clouds, but as a drier airmass and upper level ridging builds a bit over the Southeast behind the troughs, temperatures rise to above seasonal norms for the weekend. /16 MARINE... Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A strong northerly flow develops today in the wake of a cold front and continues through Tuesday morning. Winds briefly become light and variable and seas decrease during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east returns for late week. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 35 62 38 70 46 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 40 Pensacola 68 38 60 42 68 49 68 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 Destin 68 41 59 45 67 51 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 Evergreen 64 31 62 34 71 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Waynesboro 62 31 61 34 70 43 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 Camden 60 30 59 33 70 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 68 32 62 35 71 43 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636. && $$ |
#1173104 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:47 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 740 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary, with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the front further south and closer to SoFlo. Ensembles/local solutions show agreement in keeping the southern half of the peninsula in the warm sector ahead of the FROPA, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little to no impacts are anticipated tomorrow from this feature over SoFlo, with some isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Long range models keep generally good weather conditions across SoFlo Through much of the work week, with a huge high pressure cell dominating much of the east half of the CONUS and the GOMEX. The sfc ridge slowly pushes eastward and flattens by mid week, which will keep a generally easterly wind in place through early Friday. Conditions begin to change late Friday and into Saturday as a trough erodes the ridge and sends a frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula. Model consensus remains low regarding potential timing and location of this feature. However, it seems that this one will bring better chances of widespread showers and possible thunderstorm activity. The long range forecast will surely continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available. Afternoon highs are expected to remain near or cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-upper 70s through much of the period. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 657 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb, then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, particularly near/around PBI this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 67 76 61 / 10 20 10 0 West Kendall 90 65 77 57 / 10 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 90 65 77 60 / 10 20 10 0 Homestead 89 66 77 61 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 65 74 61 / 10 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 90 65 76 60 / 10 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 88 62 71 57 / 30 20 0 0 Boca Raton 90 64 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Naples 83 62 76 56 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for FLZ063-066- 067-069>071-073. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657- 676. && $$ |
#1173103 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 559 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains today but clouds probably won`t be clearing much until this after- noon. Otherwise, not a lot of issues for SE TX for the day or so. With skies clearing and north winds prevailing, high temperatures today will be in the 60s. Much drier and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s). Tues will be another dry/quiet day with highs in the 60s. However, as the surface high begins moving east of the region, look for the return of E/SE winds (and some low-level moisture) by Tues evening and night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low to mid 50s for most locations...into upper 40s over the far north- ern counties. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the eastward exit of surface high pressure late on Tuesday, we return to an onshore moisture regime by Wednesday that should provide a steady increase to temperature/dew point values ahead of the approach of our next storm system on Thursday. A wholesale increase in surface dew points of about 10 degF is on the cards by Wednesday evening, while increases in maximum temperature will be a bit more meager with highs just under 70 for most locations. Meanwhile, models continue to depict the approach of an amplified midlevel trough that will push westward from Southern AZ/NM towards the Western Gulf by late Wednesday. This feature will induce the development of a coastal low/trough just offshore which will serve as the focus for the potential for widespread (and potentially heavy) rainfall that will develop on Thursday. Global models have come into a bit better agreement over the past 24 hrs, though GFS continues to show a slightly more amplified midlevel trough and resultant stronger coastal low. However, both the GFS and EC continue to place the main axis of heavy rainfall over the Gulf, though given the uncertainty of the past few model cycles the potential for some locally heavy rain closer to the coast (i.e. along and south of the I-10 corridor) still can`t be ruled out for the time being. Too early to talk specific amounts for the time being, but most of the area looks poised to receive at least some measurable rainfall on Thursday with totals increasing roughly from north to south. The coastal low will push further towards the Central Gulf by early Friday, ending the rainfall threat as we head into the weekend. A fairly benign pattern looks to dominate the upcoming weekend with highs remaining in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s under weak onshore flow. Cady && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR ceilings are continuing to mix out this morning with winds be- coming the main issue for this TAF package. N/NE winds 10-16kts are expected to prevail with gusts from 15-25kts possible...with winds/ gusts a bit higher at the coast (GLS). Winds should decrease to 4-7 kts this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR. 41 && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Strong north winds will continue throughout this morning and afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Wind speeds will reach 20 to 30 knots through the early evening, with higher gusts at times, along with seas reaching as high as 10 feet offshore. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday as winds become light and shift to the east. Onshore flow will return on Wednesday, with a storm system developing offshore on Thursday that will bring our next chance of widespread (and possibly heavy) rainfall to the area. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 41 64 50 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 44 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 53 61 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
#1173102 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 602 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Rex Block pattern continues to hold through the short term, with a ridge across the Pacific NW and a cut-off low across the Desert SW, maintaining an active pattern, with a couple weak shortwaves or perturbations in the mostly southwesterly flow sliding through Deep South Texas this afternoon and again early Tuesday. At the surface, the front has stalled just offshore and across the border. High pressure builds this morning, with a stronger northeasterly flow arriving by mid morning. Expect breezy to near windy conditions along the lower Texas coast through the afternoon, with overrunning precip near the coast and mid to lower valley and general showers picking up as the mid-level energy swings by into this afternoon. Most rainfall will come by way of light drizzle, light rain, and light showers. An isolated rumble or two of thunder is still possible with the passing instability aloft and front meandering in the area, but confidence is much lower and surface based instability is very low or nonexistent. Overall, some beneficial rainfall should hopefully find some rain gauges into this afternoon, with temperatures generally holding where they are now or only slightly dipping near daybreak before returning this afternoon. Thick cloud cover keeps lows from falling out of the mid to upper 50s tonight, and Tuesday highs nudge back into the mid to upper 60s, also stifled by a lack of sunshine and northerly winds slowly turning easterly. Beach hazards return with the northeasterly push this morning into this afternoon. A High Rip Current Risk is expected through tonight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect mid morning into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through the same time period. MHHW guidance shows a steady march toward 1 foot by late morning, with high tide at 3:36 PM. This would lead to narrow beaches late morning through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but confidence is lower at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is in store for the region during the long-term forecast period with a mainly zonal (less amplified) pattern in place. Wednesday evening into Thursday, global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a shortwave trough and associated low pressure system tracking into the region. Mid-upper energies/impulses tracking overhead could help to ignite some showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. For now, have 30- 40% PoPs across the area during this timeframe. Otherwise, expect for dry and tranquil weather to prevail through the long-term period with subsidence and a surface high in control. Temperatures are expected to run normal to warmer than normal through the long-term period. Highs in the 80s with pockets of 90s return to the region later in the week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 IFR to MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the morning, with MVFR ceilings persisting through the TAF period. Convection from the south is pushing towards the RGV, and may impact BRO or HRL just after daybreak, with more showers than thunder expected the remainder of the morning and afternoon. Northeasterly winds increase and gust at times to 30-32 kts late this morning through this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Now through Tuesday...A frontal boundary sits just offshore along the lower Texas coast, with high pressure expected to build by mid- morning and a moderate to strong northeasterly flow arriving. This will drive Small Craft Advisory conditions across all coastal waters this morning into tonight, continuing across the Gulf through tonight, and edging into offshore waters through Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon. Tuesday night through Sunday night....Favorable marine conditions are expected to take place through Saturday with light to moderate winds and subsiding seas. Southerly winds are expected to increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 62 70 64 / 50 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 69 58 70 60 / 50 10 0 0 MCALLEN 68 59 69 62 / 60 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 56 68 60 / 60 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 64 67 65 / 40 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 62 69 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ |
#1173101 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 609 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Weak cold front this morning leading to a cooler and breezy day. - Occasional gusts to gale across the offshore waters today. - Low (10-20%) chance of minor coastal flooding. A weak cold front/surge of high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and breezy north to northeast winds to S TX today. The cooler, slightly drier air is beginning to filter into the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads this morning. The surge of high pressure will continue southward through the morning hours and is expected to reach the southern CWA between 10- 13Z. North to northeast winds will be strongest across the Coastal areas with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds will be strongest across the marine zones and there is a low to medium (10-30%) chance of gusts to gale force, mainly across the offshore waters. An upper disturbance and sufficient mid/upper level moisture will bring a slight chance to chance (10-50%) of mainly showers to the area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible given some mid level instability. The better chances for convection will be along the Rio Grande Plains where PoPs are up to 50%. Chances range from 20-35% across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. The Victoria Crossroads is the least likely to have precipitation today with PoPs <15%. Rain chances end by this evening as weak upper level ridging builds across the region. Although winds strengthen today, RH values will remain elevated due to the cooler temperatures, thus fire weather concerns are low. Mostly cloudy skies will continue across most of S TX today, however, Highs will be in the 60s both today and Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations tonight. Strong northeast winds and large seas developing across the gulf waters today will likely lead to elevated tide levels. The uncertainty is just how high the tides will get to. The PETSS shows tides up to 1.5 MSL during high tide this afternoon, which is typically not impactful. However, the energy from increasing swell periods and seas may help to push the water up to the dunes during high tide. Will continue to monitor trends for possible minor coastal flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Night into Thursday - 40-50% Chance of Sea Fog Wednesday evening The period will begin with moisture returning to the region Wednesday as a surface high pressure shifts eastwards. This will increase our dew points back into the upper 60s along the coast and in the coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Sea surface temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time. Winds should be around 10 knots therefore, a chance will exist for sea fog to develop along the coast and nearshore waters. NBM ensembles were in agreement with this and portray a 40-50% chance. The upper level low that has been parked over the Four Corners region will finally be on the move Wednesday. It will send our next cold front through the area while PWAT values are expected to increase to above normal values ahead of the front. Models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate the presence of instability to go along with the upper forcing in the area from the front. As a result of these components, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist beginning late Wednesday night into the day Thursday. The west could see the 90s by this weekend. A surface high move into the area in the wake of the front Thursday. High temperatures are expected to warm by Friday back into the lower 80s to upper 80s out west. As the surface high shifts eastwards early next week, the gradient will tighten over the area which will increase our winds over the waters. This will create the potential for SCA conditions in the latter half of the period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Most areas are MVFR this morning with COT and VCT at VFR. CIGs are expected to improve to VFR area wide by mid to late this morning. A surge of high pressure/frontal boundary, with slightly drier low levels and gusty northeast winds, is currently moving south across S TX. NE winds will strengthen behind the boundary with gusts around 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots (possibly 35KT) are expected across the CRP TAF site due to proximity to the coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are developing across the LRD area this morning and are expected to spread east through late morning into early afternoon. Rain chances diminish through the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front this morning will bring strong northeast winds to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters today. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible, mainly across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly this morning. Winds will decrease overnight, becoming weak to moderate by Tuesday morning. Weak to moderate northeast winds can be expected through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (40-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday afternoon/evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 54 66 57 / 30 0 0 0 Victoria 68 47 63 52 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 64 54 67 58 / 50 10 0 10 Alice 66 51 65 54 / 30 0 0 0 Rockport 71 55 67 58 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 50 62 55 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 67 54 66 56 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 59 68 60 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173100 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 702 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this morning. Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 0630 Monday...Front currently located on a line just south of Kinston stretching Eward toward Hatteras, which is about 60-90min slower than previously forecast. Have adjusted the winds and Tds which are the parameters most affected by this discrepancy. Rest of the forecast remains on track. Previous Disco...Cold front currently right on the doorstep of our NWern zones sinks S through the FA through the early morning hours and is forecast to be offshore by 0800-0900edt, taking the chances of showers with it leading to a dry, cool, and clearing morning. This will eventually shift winds from SWerly to NWerly with a few potential gusts to 20 kts as it does so. CAA persists at the SFC through the morning hours which will lead to MaxTs a few degrees cooler than the last couple of days, low 60s inland, mid 60s Sern coast, low to mid 50s NOBX where onshore flow off cool shelf waters limits heating. The stout, vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. This will lead to an end to the partial clearing experienced in the wake of the front as cloud coverage builds back over the FA. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL may be enough to support some showers this evening and tonight, but moisture is really lacking with PWATs from last night`s sounding already below one inch continue to drop off to 0.5-0.75in at best. However, a weak soundbreeze for Nern zones could create enough convergence and moisture pooling to spark some late afternoon/early evening showers. Will carry a slight chance for areas near Alligator River where soundbreeze(s) could converge and NOBX where the flow aloft would carry any showers that do pop up. Have also increased PoPs for the Crystal Coast where the seabreeze will be pinned to the coast, but opted to keep them just below SChc. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0335 Monday...Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through most of the FA overnight. Again, moisture is really lacking behind the SFC front and widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected but the mid and upper level dynamics can`t be ignored. Carry SChc- Chc PoPs through most of the overnight period with transit of the trough axis, best chance over the coast where more moisture in the mid and low levels will be. Any rain chances push offshore quickly in the early morning hours as the trough axis reaches the coast around sunrise. Max QPF overnight around a tenth of an in. Zones on the W of the trough axis will experience a more typical "post cold front" environment with a brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and 10+kt winds persisting. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. CAA continues through Tuesday with breezy W-NW winds and temps well below normal with highs in the 50s. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0650 Monday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period. Relatively light winds will remain SWerly ahead of the front, which is currently approaching the coastal TAF sites, and then quickly veering to NWerly and becoming gustier behind it. Winds become Werly this afternoon as vertically stacked trough approaches, again becoming breezy NWerly overnight MON night. Another rd of precip possible late this evening into the overnight period as the trough axis crosses over the area and pushes offshore Tues morning. Best chance for showers over the immediate coast so have only included VCSH for EWN and OAJ to cover precip probability. CIGs (and VIS) expected to remain VFR but they will be lowering and approaching MVFR overnight, so have added a SCT030 group for coastal terminals overnight. Skies clear rapidly and winds lay down some once the trough axis clears. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Tue and Wed, with gusts 15-25 kt each afternoon. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0700 Monday...Front currently located near Pamlico River Eward toward Ocracoke will continue pushing S through the morning. Currently drawing up an MWS for Nerly surge of winds behind the front that will reach SCA criteria but will be relatively short lived. Previous Disco...Currently SWerly winds continue at 10-15 kts with a few of the outer buoys gusting upwards of 20 kts with 2-4ft seas with the occasional 5 feet near the edges of our central waters marine zones. Winds expected to remain sub SCA but some gusts approaching 25kt possible near GStream. Showers spreading from SW to NE possible overnight ahead of the front after which, winds will become N-NWerly, peaking 15-20kt immediately behind the front but gradually decreasing through the morning becoming Nerly AoB 10kt this evening, but this relaxing of the winds will be short lived as stout NWerly CAA on the order of 10-20G30kt developing late tonight which has prompted the issuance of SCAs for all coastal and inland waters. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through the day MON, with some 4-5 footers possible for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Winds will slowly relax Tuesday with conditions progged to drop below SCA criteria by late morning and early afternoon. However, moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Mon...Slightly elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Drier Tue with min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts to 20 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173099 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:14 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 712 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures for much of the work week with mainly dry, gusty weather except for a few rain/snow showers possible sometime Wednesday and/or Wednesday night. A period of unsettled weather is also possible sometime this weekend...but confidence is low at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 710 AM Update... Forecast remains on track. No changes in the latest update. 320 AM Update... * Partly sunny & breezy today with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s An approaching shortwave has backed the upper level flow a bit early this morning. This has resulted in mid-high level cloudiness overspreading much of the region. There is even the risk for a brief sprinkle or two early this morning towards the southeast New England coast...but not worth inserting into the forecast at this time. We do expect this band of mid-high level cloudiness to push east of the region later this morning. This should result in skies becoming partly sunny...but colder temps aloft moving in from the west will allow a scattered to broken deck of CU to develop later today. 925T around 0C/+1C with good mixing on westerly flow aloft should allow for high temps to top off mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. So it will be cooler than what we saw over the weekend...but still a bit above normal for this time of year. Bufkit soundings indicate westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph by late morning/early afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Points... * Dry/Seasonable tonight with lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s * Partly sunny/breezy Tue with highs mainly in the middle-upper 40s Details... Tonight... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will generate a seasonable westerly flow of air into southern New England. Although the winds will likely not decouple in most places given a modest WNW low level jet. Nonetheless...850T dropping to between -8C and -10C will result in overnight low temps mainly in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Tuesday... Upper trough across the northeast will generate a cool west to northwest flow of air aloft again on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow along with the cold pool aloft should allow for a scattered to broken deck of diurnal CU to develop again...yielding partly sunny skies later in the day. Temperatures a few degrees colder aloft than today...so expect Tue highs mainly in the middle to upper 40s. Bufkit indicates westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * A quick moving front/system slides through Wed/Wed Night bringing light showers. Temps warmer than normal. * Drier on Thu/Fri, but cooler and breezy. * Could turn unsettled this weekend, but lots of uncertainty on how things evolve. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night... Cyclonic flow in place through this period. A fast moving shortwave trough digs from the western/central Great Lakes early on Wed into the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. The shortwave lifts into the Gulf of Maine/northern New England Wed Night. A weak warm front lifts into/through southern New England Tue Night into Wed. The trailing cold front pushes through late Wed/Wed Night. Still a tricky forecast in how wet it will be across the region, especially earlier in the day. Due to this have generally stuck with the NBM as it is mostly reasonable, but did bump up our PoPs a bit as the stronger cold front slides through later on Wed into Wed Night. The mitigating factors through this period for precip is we are fairly dry with PWATs between 0.2-0.4 inches, which is between the 25th to avg for this time of year per SPC sounding climo for CHH. On top of this we are well mixed within the PBL per Bufkit soundings, which should help mix down some drier dew points. For now have kept more spotty showers before having better chances of precip later in the day. High temps in the 40s across the higher terrain to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With the cold front and later in the day there is the better shot for more widespread showers. For most this will be rain, but the higher terrain has the potential for snow showers. There could even be a bit of accumulation. Not out of the question lower elevations see snow before things end. Right now there is discrepancy on how much QPF we can ring out in this dry airmass. Given the uncertainty stuck with the NBM. Best shot is across far northwestern MA for AOA 1 inch of snow over 24 hrs of mod to high (50-70+ percent chance) and even some low probs (10-30 percent) for 3+ inches per the GEFS/EPS guidance. The GEPS is essentially nil for the 3+ inch probs. Further east along the Route 2 corridor probs are low to mod (10-40 percent chance). Stay tuned for future updates. Anticipating it to be breezy on Wed, but especially Wed Night in wake of the cold front. Will have W to WNW flow with the LLJ increasing to 25-35 kts. Stuck with the NBM for now as its higher winds/gusts are reasonable given the cold air advection and LLJ in place. Thursday through Friday... Flow somewhat cyclonic during this timeframe. A ridge axis will be over the Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley early on Thu. This builds into the TN Valley by late Thu. The ridge axis builds into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic on Fri, but flattens out a bit. High pressure begins to nudge in from the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Thu and just offshore of the Mid Atlantic on Fri. Dry and quiet weather expected through this period as high pressure nudges in. Anticipating gusty winds across southern New England on Thu. Will be fairly well mixed with WNW to NW flow under cold air advection and 925 hPa winds of 25-35 kts. Shouldn`t be terribly difficult to mix down given the environment. So should have gusts of 35-40 mph through much of the day. Given the well mixed boundary layer it won`t be tough to bring down -20 to -30 degree dew points near the top of the PBL. Due to this lowered dew points/RH values to the 15th percentile of guidance for now. Did bump up temps to the 75th percentile of guidance given the setup. Highs on Thu will be right around normal for this time of year in the 40s. Should still be a bit breezy on Fri, but the high will relax the pressure gradient as it builds closer to our region. Temperatures still right around seasonable levels. This Weekend... Considerable uncertainty for this upcoming weekend. A trough will be located somewhere over the Southeastern US late on Fri. This lifts northeastward toward our region on Sat and perhaps Sun depending on how things evolve. Lot of uncertainty in if a coastal system slides up our way. Given the spread in guidance have stuck with the NBM for now for this timeframe. Appears that it could be wet if the trough lifts up into our area. There are some indications that the trough cuts off to our south/southeast, which would keep us dry. At this point probs are moderate (30-70 percent) of 24 hr QPF on both days AOA 0.1 inches. There are low probs of (10-30 percent) of 1+ inch of QPF with the risk being highlighted over RI/SE MA. Can see the uncertainty quite clearly via the large spread in MSLP low pressure center tracks per the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Temps still near to perhaps slightly cooler than seasonable. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. VFR. W winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots developing by roughly 12-15Z. Mid level clouds linger with bases around 6-8 kft. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 knots. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Another round of mid level CU with bases of 5-8 kft. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High Confidence. Upper trough over the northeast will generate a continued cool WNW flow of air through Tuesday. Decent mixing should promote some 20 to 25 knot wind gusts at times...especially near shore during the afternoon hours. It is very borderline small craft conditions...but bulk of the time conditions will be below small craft criteria. Therefore...only opted SCA headlines for Tuesday across our southern waters. This is for marginal 5 foot seas and 20 to 25 knot wind gusts. Later shifts may need to consider additional marginal small craft headlines for Tuesday...but confidence not high enough to do that right now. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today and Tuesday... Minimum afternoon relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today and Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon on both days. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we opted to issue a SPS for CT and RI due to elevated fire weather concerns today and possibly again on Tuesday. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173098 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:11 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 655 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A cold front is located from SC, across southeast GA, and to the central FL panhandle. Weak pre-frontal trough appears to extend southwest to northeast over northeast FL. Broad mid/upper level troughing extends across the eastern U.S., with a strong shortwave trough diving southeast across the Midwest. Locally, scattered mainly light showers extend across the area and some instability extends across northeast FL with MUCAPE of about 500-1000 J/kg, highest over toward the I-75 corridor. Upstream, some scattered weak convection is noted across the northeast GOMEX. The cold front will slowly shift southward today and when combined with increasing lift with shortwave energy will support scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today across northeast FL. The environment is supportive of isolated strong storms, with forecast guidance showing MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 kt, with the main focus across the srn most zones. SPC has outline a marginal risk of severe storms in this area today, with mainly a wind threat threat and lower hail threat. Most of the activity will be south of the area 5-6 pm today. Skies will be mostly cloudy through at least early aftn with decreasing cloudiness developing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the northwest during the day, but not reach more than about 10-15 mph, with highs today expected in the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s. Tonight, skies will clear up tonight except for some thin cirrus. A strong pressure gradient develops with stronger pressure rises of 2-4 mb/3 hours developing as high pressure tries to build in quickly behind the cold front. Gusty winds from the northwest anticipated with winds of 15-25 mph with a few gusts of at least 30 mph. Much colder tonight with lows from the upper 30s to lower and mid 40s, and wind chills becoming widespread in the lower to mid 30s inland areas by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure building into the area will bring dry weather over much of the upcoming week. Northwest flow will allow for cooler air to tickle in, leading to temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will ease on Tuesday as high pressure continues to build into the area leading to a shift to light westerly winds by Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to trend upward to sit at just near normal. A shift in the winds is expected during the morning hours on Thursday as the high pressure moves off towards the northeast ahead of a low pressure system over the Gulf. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Precipitation chances return as a low pressure system over the Gulf is expected to move over the Florida peninsula from Thursday night through Friday. The latest GFS run indicates a more northerly track as it moves from southwest to northeast. As such, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in over north central Florida and spread to the rest of the local area as the low moves through. Estimates of 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with higher locally higher amounts expected over north central Florida. By the weekend, dry conditions look to become reestablished as the low moves off towards the northeast and high pressure builds in over the area. Below normal temperatures during the forecast period are expected as daytime temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s for NE FL and the upper 60s for SE GA. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Widespread low clouds (IFR/MVFR) conds with the frontal passage this morning with most of the convection pushing south of I-10 corridor and will likely only impact GNV/SGJ through the mid morning hours with VFR conds expected at all TAF sites as NW winds increase to 15G25 knots by the evening hours and continue through the nighttime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds are westerly about 10-15 kt and seas noted to be mostly around 2 ft or less. Cold front will slowly push across the area waters today and will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast FL. Northwest to north winds will rapidly increase tonight with enough support to trigger a gale warning for area waters, with gale conditions for at least 4-8 hours. Will probably be a short duration small craft advisory for Tuesday morning, but winds will decrease quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds continue to be light into Wed and early Thu as high pressure ridge extends across the region. Winds will increase Thu night as the next low pressure system moves into the eastern GOMEX. Still looks like the low pres system will scoot just south of the marine area Fri night, and then into the western Atlantic Sat morning. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 37 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 72 41 61 42 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 73 40 63 39 / 60 0 0 0 SGJ 73 43 61 41 / 80 0 0 0 GNV 76 40 66 38 / 70 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 66 37 / 70 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
#1173097 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:59 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 657 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast of the area and out to sea this morning. A stronger cold front will cross the area this evening into Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance moving along the front could produce a few showers over extreme southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into early Tuesday morning. Dry weather is then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Early this morning, a cold front was about to push SE of NE NC. Isolated showers were along the boundary over portions of NE NC. Otherwise, the sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the region with temps ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s. The showers and cold front will push farther SE of the area and out to sea this morning. NW or N winds are/will be ushering much drier air and cooler high temps for today. The sky will become partly sunny later this morning, with highs today ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... A trough aloft, over the Great Lakes early this morning, will dig into and across the Mid Atlc tonight. Again, there may be just enough moisture for isolated to sctd showers in SE VA/NE NC this evening into early Tue morning. But otherwise, it will stay dry over most of the region. Cold tonight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s SE VA/NE NC. Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Could see gusts to 20-30 mph. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Highs will range through the 60s. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Monday... High pressure builds into and over the area for Thu into Thu night. Then, model differences still remain for the srn stream low pressure system for the weekend. The 00z/18 GFS is faster with tracking the low pressure system up along the SE and Mid Atlc coast later Fri into Sat aftn, and then quickly out to sea Sat evening. While the 00z/18 ECMWF is much slower tracking the low up along the SE coast for Fri evening into Sat evening, and actually then stalling it off the SE coast and dropping it SSE well off the SE coast for Sat night through Mon. At this time, fcst will lean toward the GFS, with best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through Sat. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the fcst for late Sat night through Sun or ern/SE portions of the region. Highs will range through the 50s Thu, in the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 655 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Tue morning. Winds have or will become NW or N behind the front, and increase to ~10 kt with gusts 15-25 kt through this morning as deep mixing sets up. Winds will become more WNW for this aftn and not as strong. Increasing NW or N winds expected again tonight into Tue morning. Outlook...A few showers will be possible this evening into early Tue morning over SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail from Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now offshore. There was a brief surge with the frontal passage itself, followed by a brief lull. With a surge of weak CAA now ensuing, we`re noting an uptick of NW winds to ~15-20 kt over the northern portions of the bay with gusts to 25-30 kt. Expect this surge will push south across the middle and lower Bay zones over the next 1-2 hours, then slowly diminishing by mid-morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay until 10am. Waves of 2-3 ft in the bay with seas also remaining around 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore. NW winds briefly subside to 10-15 kt (gusts to ~20 kt in the eastern VA rivers) this aftn before quickly increasing again tonight in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA. Will not raise headlines until the current set can be lowered, but widespread SCAs are likely for all waters late tonight through early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt. Seas also increase to 4-6 ft. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the lower James and lower bay in a developing SW wind regime. Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) expected through Thu. There remains considerable uncertainty for next weekend, as some sort of cyclogenesis occurs to our S along a coastal trough over the Carolina coast Fri/Sat. Given continued large spatial and temporal differences among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri through next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front which moved through overnight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for today and again on Tue. Despite deep mixing today, NNW winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier tonight, as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible on Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ633-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ635>638. && $$ |
#1173096 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:47 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 630 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through the area this morning followed by breezy conditions and below normal temperatures thru Tue night. Milder temps and continued dry conditions to occur thru the mid-week period. Rain chances return Fri thru Sat as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast States Atlantic coast. && .UPDATE... Front is sitting just near northern Marlboro county and should continue through the area early this morning. Increased wind speeds slightly for this afternoon into this evening based on how winds are this morning. Updated aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is currently pushing into the far inland portions of our CWA, outrunning the trough aloft. Winds will start to come around to the west and then the northwest with its passage. The front will be offshore by the morning, dry air filtering in gradually. Enough moisture should hang on in the column through the day for there to be a mix of clouds and sun through the day. A decent breeze should linger through the day so went a bit milder on highs, low to mid 60s. Similarly went lower on the dewpoints due to decent mixing. Increased fire danger might be possible as aftn RH values dip below 30 percent with gusts up to 20 mph. The upper trough will be passing overhead tonight, a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of it. SE NC could see some brief, light showers late this evening with the passage of this disturbance. NW winds will also increase at this time, gusting around 25-30 mph. Lows will fall into the mid 30s, but with the strong overnight breeze frost formation is unlikely. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CAA will peak early Tue via various thickness schemes, followed by the offshore movement of the 5H trof axis during Tue. NAA followed by WAA by late Tue as 5H heights/1k-5h thicknesses rise. Sfc pg remains tightened Tue thru Wed with breezy conditions resulting, especially during daylight hrs both days. The WAA Wed may push temps above 70 for highs. Otherwise, temps well below normal Tue, rise to at or just above normal Wed thru Wed night. Next dry CFP slated late Wed/Wed nite as flow drives sfc ridging out of Central Canada to the Carolinas. At this point, winds stay active enough to keep temps aoa 40 along with no frost issues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Thu thru Thu night, flow aloft basically NW that backs to westerly. Under CAA initially that becomes neutral. Temps to run at or slightly below normal. Skies generally cloud free initially that will see high level moisture late Thu night from the south. Southern stream mid-level s/w trof to gain steam in the Gulf of Mexico Fri. GFS indicates a full Gale/Storm off the Carolina Coasts Fri night into Sat as the sfc low and mid-level s/w trof lift NE-ward. The European on the other hand keeps it benign early in the weekend, then closes/cutoffs the upper low off the Carolina Coast late in the weekend with sfc Gale/Storm possible. Overall, will have rain chances capped around 50% later Fri thru Sat night with some low chance pops mainly at or off the coasts Sun/Sun night. Have indicated mainly stratiform rains Fri into Fri night with isolated thunder at and off the coasts late Fri night into Sat as the low passes by, moving along an offshore/coastal waters coastal trof that does not get pulled inland but comes close to the immediate coast. Lot of questions remain with this system especially with various model continuity. Temps Fri thru Sun to remain at or below normal due to clouds and pcpn. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the 12Z TAF period. NW winds near 10 kts will gradually become more westerly through today. A disturbance moving over the area this evening into tonight will bring gusty NW winds near 20-25 kts. Low chances for showers at KILM at the same time but low confidence so will let the next put them in if confidence is higher. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NW winds 10-15 kts will decrease to near 10 kts this afternoon becoming SW once more ahead of another disturbance. As this disturbance approaches through the evening into the night, winds will reach SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming NW once more around midnight. Seas near 2 ft will increase to 2-4 ft tonight with a strong NW wind wave. Tuesday through Friday night...SCA thresholds will be ongoing early Tue before temporarily dropping below during Tue as the sfc pg relaxes slightly and a change from CAA to NAA occurs. The sfc pg tightens Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next cold front. With WAA, am suspect that SW-WSW winds may eclipse SCA thresholds even when combined with the re-tightening of the sfc pg. Nevertheless, potential is there to highlight the SCA possibility. Dry CFP Wed night, followed by CAA and the sfc pg relaxing during Thu. Look for wind shift to the N-NE Thu, becoming E thruout with increasing speeds Fri. Coastal trof to develop just offshore Fri, with E winds 15 to 20 kt within coastal waters, and SE at SCA thresholds on the other side of the trof. Will see SCA thresholds eclipsed by seas Fri/Fri night. The seas will have a decent fetch for which to build upon and as a result, will observe the hier seas just offshore bleed into the coastal waters Fri/Fri night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173095 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:45 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 632 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this morning. Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 0630 Monday...Front currently located on a line just south of Kinston stretching Eward toward Hatteras, which is about 60-90min slower than previously forecast. Have adjusted the winds and Tds which are the parameters most affected by this discrepancy. Rest of the forecast remains on track. Previous Disco...Cold front currently right on the doorstep of our NWern zones sinks S through the FA through the early morning hours and is forecast to be offshore by 0800-0900edt, taking the chances of showers with it leading to a dry, cool, and clearing morning. This will eventually shift winds from SWerly to NWerly with a few potential gusts to 20 kts as it does so. CAA persists at the SFC through the morning hours which will lead to MaxTs a few degrees cooler than the last couple of days, low 60s inland, mid 60s Sern coast, low to mid 50s NOBX where onshore flow off cool shelf waters limits heating. The stout, vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. This will lead to an end to the partial clearing experienced in the wake of the front as cloud coverage builds back over the FA. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL may be enough to support some showers this evening and tonight, but moisture is really lacking with PWATs from last night`s sounding already below one inch continue to drop off to 0.5-0.75in at best. However, a weak soundbreeze for Nern zones could create enough convergence and moisture pooling to spark some late afternoon/early evening showers. Will carry a slight chance for areas near Alligator River where soundbreeze(s) could converge and NOBX where the flow aloft would carry any showers that do pop up. Have also increased PoPs for the Crystal Coast where the seabreeze will be pinned to the coast, but opted to keep them just below SChc. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 0335 Monday...Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through most of the FA overnight. Again, moisture is really lacking behind the SFC front and widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected but the mid and upper level dynamics can`t be ignored. Carry SChc- Chc PoPs through most of the overnight period with transit of the trough axis, best chance over the coast where more moisture in the mid and low levels will be. Any rain chances push offshore quickly in the early morning hours as the trough axis reaches the coast around sunrise. Max QPF overnight around a tenth of an in. Zones on the W of the trough axis will experience a more typical "post cold front" environment with a brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and 10+kt winds persisting. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. CAA continues through Tuesday with breezy W-NW winds and temps well below normal with highs in the 50s. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0100 Monday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period. At this time, precipitation associated with FROPA is expected to be minimal and most likely for KOAJ or KEWN with lesser chances at the inland terminals. Winds will stay mostly below ten kts overnight with the occasional higher gust in the immediate vicinity of the front. Wind directions will remain SWerly ahead of the front and then quickly veering to NWerly behind it. Winds become Werly this afternoon as vertically stacked trough approaches, again becoming breezy NWerly overnight MON night. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Tue and Wed, with gusts 15-25 kt each afternoon. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0400 Monday...Currently SWerly winds continue at 10-15 kts with a few of the outer buoys gusting upwards of 20 kts with 2-4ft seas with the occasional 5 feet near the edges of our central waters marine zones. Winds expected to remain sub SCA but some gusts approaching 25kt possible near GStream. Showers spreading from SW to NE possible overnight ahead of the front after which, winds will become N-NWerly, peaking 15-20kt immediately behind the front but gradually decreasing through the morning becoming Nerly AoB 10kt this evening, but this relaxing of the winds will be short lived as stout NWerly CAA on the order of 10-20G30kt developing late tonight which has prompted the issuance of SCAs for all coastal and inland waters. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through the day MON, with some 4-5 footers possible for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Winds will slowly relax Tuesday with conditions progged to drop below SCA criteria by late morning and early afternoon. However, moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Mon...Slightly elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Drier Tue with min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts to 20 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173094 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 625 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will finish sweeping southeast through the forecast area this morning, followed by gusty northwest winds this afternoon that will usher in a cool and dry air mass. A light freeze is possible tonight in some Alabama and Georgia counties, A light frost is possible on Wednesday morning in colder inland pockets under the influence of light winds and efficient radiational cooling. A surface low will track across the Gulf on Thursday night. It is then likely to pass south of the area and across the Florida Peninsula on Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Light shower activity should be exiting the Florida Big Bend through the early morning hours as the cold front finally pushes through the CWA. In the cold fronts wake, dry air will be advecting into the region throughout the day, which will quickly scour out any lingering clouds by mid-day, with near clear skies expected by the evening. Across the upper levels, a late season trough is expected to dig south into south central Georgia by tonight, which will aid in the cold air advection across the region as 500mb heights fall areawide. In conjunction with the aforementioned height falls, surface pressure will be quickly increasing throughout the day as high pressure pushes into the region today. This will lead to a tight pressure gradient across the region as well as gusty afternoon winds. While temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s areawide, the potential for frost is looking less likely as winds look to remain elevated through the overnight hours. RH values from 06-12 UTC look to peak around 60%, which is low for frost development. While frost is unlikely, there could be the potential for patchy frost in sheltered locations where ground moisture may lead to micro-climates of higher RH across portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These locations have the best chances for frost development given the cooler low temperatures forecast tonight. High temperatures today will struggle against cold air advection; however, they are expected to climb into the mid 60s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Deep west-northwest upper level flow will keep the weather cool and dry. A cool continental surface high will drop south through eastern Texas, with a ridge axis extending east. This ridge axis will pass south across the service area on Tuesday, then hang out over the northern Gulf on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given its proximity on Tuesday night, winds will readily go calm. Clear skies and dry air will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. So early Wednesday morning will be the most favorable time for our typically colder spots to bottom out in the mid 30s and support some patchy frost. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The cutoff upper low which has loitered over the Southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico will finally budge this week and start to move straight east. As the upper trough axis crosses the Southern Plains on Thursday, upper level diffluence will overspread the Gulf on Thursday night, and a dual jet structure will be favorable for a strengthening surface low moving east across the Gulf. The most likely track would take the surface low across the FL Peninsula on Friday. This most likely track would keep the forecast area on the cooler and more stable poleward side of the low, with rain and showers, and perhaps some embedded elevated thunder over our FL counties. However, there is a notable cluster of ensemble members that take the low more northeast across the Big Bend region and far south Georgia. If this left hand track were to verify, then a warm, moist unstable air mass would have a chance to spread northward as well, with the structure of the low possibly supporting hodographs and a shear profile favorable to all convective modes around Friday. Again, this outcome will be highly conditional on a more left hand track of the low. Regardless of the track that the low takes, once it moves out into the Atlantic, dry northerly surface winds on its back side will arrive in time for next weekend. Despite the northerly winds, the air mass next weekend looks quite seasonable, with near normal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR to IFR restrictions are currently being observed across all terminals this morning. These conditions look to improve through the morning hours to VFR levels before 18 UTC at all terminals. Gusty northwest winds to around 20-25 knots will be present at all terminals during the afternoon hours, but are expected to relax by the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will sweep across the waters early this morning. Northwest breezes behind the front will become strong by this evening, with a few gusts approaching gale-force tonight. A high pressure ridge extending eastward from Texas will quickly settle over the waters Tuesday afternoon, remaining in place through Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will quickly move east across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday. North of the low, easterly breezes will develop, possibly becoming strong at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level trough will push through the region today, which will lead to gusty northwest winds through the mid morning and afternoon hours. These strong winds combined with mixing heights around 4,400 to 4,600 feet will lead to high dispersions for areas primarily west of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Although dry air will be advecting into the region, minimum RH values today will only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect much lower minimum RH values on Tuesday as dry air continues to push into the area. Minimum RH values on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s; however, winds will be near calm as high pressure settles into the region. Although RH values will be low, there are no fire weather concerns at this time outside of high dispersions given the recent rainfall across the region the last week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Bainbridge gage expected to drop below flood stage later today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 39 63 39 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 70 39 62 44 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 66 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 66 34 60 37 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 37 61 38 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 74 39 64 36 / 60 0 0 0 Apalachicola 71 42 60 45 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ |
#1173093 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:39 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 426 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Tuesday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A much cooler and drier airmass will continue to move into the area today in the wake of a cold front. A northwesterly flow aloft will lead to building sfc high pressure across the area. Skies will clear by late this morning with high temps in the low to mid 60s inland to upper 60s along the coast. Sfc high pressure settles over the area tonight resulting in lighter winds. Clear skies and light winds will allow temps to fall into the upper 20s and low 30s inland to upper 30s near the coast. As a result, a freeze warning is in effect for areas north of the coastal counties. Clear and cool conditions continue on Tuesday with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. /13 && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Weak upper ridging moves over the Southeast as a weakening upper level shortwave trough moves over the Plains. Surface high pressure moves over the forecast area Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing light easterly flow to the forecast area by Thursday morning. The airmass over the forecast area has begun to modify as isentropic upglide brings Gulf moisture inland over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and from there northeastward over the forecast area. Temperatures see an uptick, with low temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 Tuesday night rising into the lower to mid 40s inland with upper 40s along the coast Wednesday night. High temperatures Wednesday range from the low 70s inland to around 70 along the coast. /16 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The shortwave trough over the Plains passes over the Southeast Thursday night through Friday, with a weak shortwave trough passing over marine portions of the forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. This combination of passing energy brings isentropic upglide showers to the forecast area beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting into Friday morning. Guidance is advertising the highest PoPs south of the coast, closer to a stalled surface boundary from earlier in the week, with better upglide present. Instability is also limited to areas south of the coast, so have left any mention of rumbles to marine portions of the forecast area, and limited at that. With a drier airmass to moisten over land portions of the forecast area (relative to over the Gulf), when combined with the progressive nature of the shortwave trough, rainfall amounts are expected to be limited over land areas, so no water issues are noted at this time. Temperatures will see a bit of a downturn Thursday through Friday due to the rain cooling and increased clouds, but as a drier airmass and upper level ridging builds a bit over the Southeast behind the troughs, temperatures rise to above seasonal norms for the weekend. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A strong northerly flow develops today in the wake of a cold front and continues through Tuesday morning. Winds briefly become light and variable and seas decrease during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east returns for late week. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 35 62 38 70 46 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 40 Pensacola 68 38 60 42 68 49 68 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 Destin 68 41 59 45 67 51 70 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 Evergreen 64 31 62 34 71 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Waynesboro 62 31 61 34 70 43 69 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 30 Camden 60 30 59 33 70 42 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 68 32 62 35 71 43 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636. && $$ |
#1173092 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 343 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains today but clouds probably won`t be clearing much until this after- noon. Otherwise, not a lot of issues for SE TX for the day or so. With skies clearing and north winds prevailing, high temperatures today will be in the 60s. Much drier and cooler conditions are on tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s). Tues will be another dry/quiet day with highs in the 60s. However, as the surface high begins moving east of the region, look for the return of E/SE winds (and some low-level moisture) by Tues evening and night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low to mid 50s for most locations...into upper 40s over the far north- ern counties. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the eastward exit of surface high pressure late on Tuesday, we return to an onshore moisture regime by Wednesday that should provide a steady increase to temperature/dew point values ahead of the approach of our next storm system on Thursday. A wholesale increase in surface dew points of about 10 degF is on the cards by Wednesday evening, while increases in maximum temperature will be a bit more meager with highs just under 70 for most locations. Meanwhile, models continue to depict the approach of an amplified midlevel trough that will push westward from Southern AZ/NM towards the Western Gulf by late Wednesday. This feature will induce the development of a coastal low/trough just offshore which will serve as the focus for the potential for widespread (and potentially heavy) rainfall that will develop on Thursday. Global models have come into a bit better agreement over the past 24 hrs, though GFS continues to show a slightly more amplified midlevel trough and resultant stronger coastal low. However, both the GFS and EC continue to place the main axis of heavy rainfall over the Gulf, though given the uncertainty of the past few model cycles the potential for some locally heavy rain closer to the coast (i.e. along and south of the I-10 corridor) still can`t be ruled out for the time being. Too early to talk specific amounts for the time being, but most of the area looks poised to receive at least some measurable rainfall on Thursday with totals increasing roughly from north to south. The coastal low will push further towards the Central Gulf by early Friday, ending the rainfall threat as we head into the weekend. A fairly benign pattern looks to dominate the upcoming weekend with highs remaining in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s under weak onshore flow. Cady && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Only MVFR decks at 04Z are in/around LBX and GLS. Current thinking has these decks breaking up while another building/thickening deck around 3500-4000 feet (in/around the ACT area) tries to build in from the NW. So generally going with VFR/BKN040 and increasing N to NNE winds overnight. Any ceilings that do develop are expected to begin breaking up around 10-14Z as drier air works into the area from the N, then just anticipating gusty N winds and some high clouds for the rest of the day. Much weaker N winds will prevail 00Z-12Z on the 19th (Monday night-Tuesday morning) as high pressure builds into the area. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Strong north winds will continue throughout this morning and afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Wind speeds will reach 20 to 30 knots through the early evening, with higher gusts at times, along with seas reaching as high as 10 feet offshore. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday as winds become light and shift to the east. Onshore flow will return on Wednesday, with a storm system developing offshore on Thursday that will bring our next chance of widespread (and possibly heavy) rainfall to the area. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 41 64 50 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 44 67 53 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 53 61 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375. && $$ |
#1173091 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 403 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... ...Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Today... ...Much Cooler Temperatures Forecast Behind The Cold Front Tuesday Into Wednesday... ...Low Pressure System Late Week To Bring Increased Rain Chances... Current-This Morning...Latest surface analysis indicates a cold front stretched across northeast Florida and into the Florida big bend. Stratiform rain continues across northeast Florida early this morning as a mid level vorticity boundary advances southeastward ahead of the front. CAM guidance suggests showers will gradually diminish as the line advances towards the I-4 corridor, but a few showers remain possible across northern counties before sunrise. Low stratus has developed across north Florida beneath an area of high cloud cover. Stratus is forecast to move into east central Florida ahead of sunrise, remaining generally north of a line from Cape Canaveral/ Lake Kissimmee. Southwest surface winds around 5 mph should be just enough to limit fog development, however, there remains low confidence in patchy fog development across the south where skies remain clear. Today-Tonight...The cold front moves southward into east central Florida as mid level support advance ahead. Southwest flow increases ahead of the front, limiting the development and inland extent of an east coast sea breeze. Coverage of showers and storms increases across the I-4 corridor through mid morning with greatest coverage (~60-70%) shifting southward into the afternoon. A conditional threat of severe storms exists across east central Florida today, and SPC has highlighted the area in a Marginal Risk. Low level instability is apparent with model soundings indicating steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values ranging 1,400-1,700 J/kg. Poor lapse rates generally between 800-600mb could serve as a limiting factor in the potential severe threat today. Strong mid level winds and cold temperatures aloft (~ -12C @ 500mb) could support a strong to severe storm where tall updrafts are able to occur. Strong to marginally severe storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph, coin sized hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. The greatest confidence in a strong to severe storm lies south of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marion where the greatest day time heating is expected, and temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures remain cooler across the north with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Coverage of showers diminishes across the Treasure Coast into the evening as the cold front moves across south Florida. Breezy, northerly winds build overnight. Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure builds into the southern states behind the cold front Tuesday, then stretches into the Florida region on Wednesday. Much drier and cooler air will be advected into the local area by post-frontal northerly winds. Forecast PWATs mid- week as low as 0.2-0.5". Needless to say, no precipitation is forecast. Breezy northerly winds Tuesday morning will diminish into the afternoon, then become light on Wednesday, with a sea breeze at the coast. The big story will be the much cooler temperatures. After several days of well above normal temperatures, highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s, with lower 60s along the Volusia County coast, will likely come as a surprise to many. Temperatures then warm to near normal Wednesday, reaching the lower to mid-70s, with upper 70s inland from the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be well below normal Tuesday night, as skies clear and dew points plummet. Forecast lows fall into the 40s during this period. Elevated winds will also make temperatures feel like the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area Wednesday morning. Like daytime highs, temperatures Wednesday night will begin to warm, but remain below normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some mid-50s along the coast south of the Cape. Thursday-Saturday...Dry conditions prevail through the afternoon on Thursday, despite a breakdown of the ridge over the southern states. A shortwave will then dig through the Deep South, generating a low pressure system over the GOMEX. Models are in good agreement that this low will somewhere over the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night. However, there are discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF on exactly where the crossing takes place. The GFS takes a northerly track, while the Euro passes southward. Regardless, deeper moisture looks to return to east central Florida beginning Thursday night , with PWATs increasing to up to 1.6". While CAPE looks to be limited, have included a mention for a slight chance of lightning storms Friday into Friday evening. Instead, widespread rainfall, with some locally heavy rainfall possible, looks to be the main threat. PoPs Thursday night through Friday up to 70%, with the most rainfall occurring during the daytime hours on Friday. High cloud cover and precipitation keeps highs near-normal both days, in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Models diverge Saturday as the GFS rapidly takes the low northeastward along a cold front, ingesting it into a stronger low pressure over southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has the low linger along the Carolina coastline. Both solutions would lead to northerly flow, though wind speeds vary. Scattered showers persist Saturday as the low pulls away from shore, with lingering PoPs over the waters Saturday night, occasionally drifting onshore into the Treasure Coast. Temperatures remain near-normal Saturday. Sunday-Monday...Model differences persist Sunday into early next week, as the GFS suggests a trough over the eastern US, while the ECMWF retrogrades the earlier low closer to the Florida coast, where it deepens significantly. Both solutions maintain elevated winds over the Atlantic waters and along the coast. However, the difference in wind direction (onshore for the GFS and parallel to shore for the ECMWF) will make the difference for coastal/marine hazards. Given the differences, went with the NBM solution for the current forecast, which more closely resembles the GFS. Some lingering showers possible Sunday over the Atlantic and along the coast south of the Cape, then drier on Monday, though this is low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Today-Tonight...A cold front moves across the local waters today promoting scattered to numerous showers. An isolated severe storm will be possible with wind gust greater than 34 kts. Southwest winds increase and veer behind the front. Seas become hazardous overnight with sustained northerly winds of 25-30 kts. Occasional gusts to Gale force will be possible. Northerly winds quickly build seas to 6- 8 ft nearshore and 8-10 ft offshore tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will take effect at 10 PM across offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard, expanding to all east central Florida waters at 1 AM. Tuesday-Wednesday...Northerly winds 20-25kts early Tuesday decrease through the day, then become light and variable on Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the southern US. However, poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue, as seas will be slow to subside. Seas 7-10ft Tuesday morning become 3-4ft nearshore north of Sebastian Inlet by the evening, but remain up to 6-8ft in the Gulf Stream. Will see conditions improve by Wednesday afternoon, as seas fall to 2-4ft. No precipitation forecast through the period. Thursday-Friday...High pressure breaks down on Thursday, as a shortwave through digs through the southern US. This feature is forecast to develop a low pressure system over the GOMEX, which will then cross the Florida peninsula through late week. Model discrepancies exist on the placement of this low. However, increasing shower chances, with a few lightning storms are expected by Thursday night into Friday. Onshore flow around 8-12kts Thursday veers southeasterly late Thursday night and increases to 15-20kts. Then, winds become southerly at 15-20kts Friday. Seas 1-2ft building to 4-5ft, with up to 6ft well offshore, by late Friday afternoon. Seas up to 7ft forecast offshore Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tuesday-Thursday...Very dry conditions through mid-week, as post- frontal air leads to min RH values around 45% or lower Tuesday area- wide and as low as the upper 20%s across the interior. This will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions when combined with northerly winds 10-15mph, and up to 15-20mph along the coast, Tuesday morning. But, will see winds decrease by Tuesday afternoon. Good to very good dispersion in the morning will become fair to good through the day. Further drying is then forecast Wednesday, with widespread min RHs in the mid to upper 20%s, while coastal areas south of the Cape remain in the mid to upper 30%s. However, winds become light, as high pressure builds into the area. Wind directions will be variable, but a sea breeze is possible during the afternoon. Lighter winds will lead to poor to fair dispersion. Will see some improvement Thursday, though min RH 35-45% is still forecast, with the driest conditions inland. Winds increase once again, becoming easterly around 8-12mph in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Prevailing MVFR stratus is forecast to move southward towards the interior terminals before sunrise. TEMPOs included for periods of IFR CIGs. Stratus will linger into the afternoon as it spreads towards southward terminals. VCSH/VCTS increases from north to south as a cold front moves across east central Florida. SHRA TEMPOs included at DAB/SFB/LEE/TIX. Southwest winds ahead of the front increase and veer northerly as the front passes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 48 62 42 / 70 10 0 0 MCO 83 52 67 46 / 70 20 0 0 MLB 83 55 66 47 / 60 30 0 0 VRB 87 57 69 47 / 60 30 0 0 LEE 78 48 67 44 / 60 10 0 0 SFB 81 50 66 44 / 70 20 0 0 ORL 82 52 67 47 / 70 20 0 0 FPR 86 57 69 46 / 50 30 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
#1173090 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 345 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Southwestern upper low remains over Arizona this morning, while the northern stream trough extends from Quebec southwestward to Iowa. An impulse ahead of the troughing could produce a few sprinkles early this morning, but that`s about it. The cooler, drier air has been slow to arrive, with dew points only now starting to drop over southwest Mississippi. Temperatures at 3 AM CDT ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The northern stream trough will move rapidly off the East Coast over the next 24-36 hours, putting the local area under northwesterly upper flow, if only briefly. Surface high pressure currently over the Dakotas will dive southward and be centered near the Louisiana coast by sunset Tuesday. As the drier air arrives this morning, clouds should diminish and it`ll become a bit on the breezy side by midday. Humidities will drop noticeably, to around 30 percent this afternoon. Fortunately, we got a good bit of rain yesterday, or there would have been a few fire weather concerns. The coldest air won`t have arrived this afternoon, and we tend to get a bit of compressional heating across the northern half of the area with northerly winds, so we should see some recovery in temperatures this afternoon to close to 70, with some possibility that might not be warm enough. Main forecast concern will be overnight lows tonight, with the potential for temperatures near or below freezing across northern portions of the area around sunrise Tuesday. It`s been several weeks since temperatures reached freezing anywhere in the CWA, and we`re past the mean last freeze date for any of our climate reporting stations, making freeze products necessary in all areas when applicable. Main wild card in forecasting overnight lows is whether the winds become light enough to allow the radiational cooling necessary to fall to or below freezing. NBM probabilities continue to show the main threat is to our southwest Mississippi counties, with the adjacent Florida Parishes of southeast Louisiana carrying somewhat of a lesser threat. One adjustment to the Freeze Watch area was to add Pointe Coupee Parish to the watch to better fit our watch and WFO LCH together. Will keep it as a watch for now and let the day shift take another look at the overnight wind forecast before upgrading, if need be. Considering the source region of the high pressure that will be centered over us tomorrow was in Canada, it makes sense that Tuesday highs will be cooler than today, struggling to get much past 60 in most areas. But at least there will be abundant sunshine and much less wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 With the northern stream trough losing its effect on the local area Tuesday night, the upper flow becomes more zonal across the northern Gulf Coast. Upper troughing moving into the Pacific Northwest will finally kick the Arizona upper low eastward in a much weakened state. As it opens up into a wave, it will move across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. While both the GFS and ECMWF operational models both develop weak low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, the GFS solution is close enough to the northern Gulf Coast to spread rain into the area, mainly Thursday and Thursday night. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, but at least for now, severe weather and heavy rainfall appear to be rather minimal threats. Once the shortwave reaches the East Coast, it phases with norther stream energy and closes off again, which will allow high pressure to become dominant over the lower Mississippi River Valley for the weekend. That will keep the local area dry with temperatures near to slightly above normal, with lows generally in the 50s and highs in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Most local terminals have transitioned to MVFR...and should remain within MVFR ranges through the early to mid morning hours on Monday. Northerly winds will also begin to increase and remain breezy through the day. That said, clouds will decrease Monday morning leading to VFR conditions areawide by mid to late morning. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 While winds are short of advisory criteria at present, expect that to change over the next 6 hours or so, and am not planning any adjustments to the Small Craft Advisory at this time. A few gusts to 35 knots aren`t absolutely out of the question this evening, but not high enough confidence to justify a Gale Warning at this time. Winds drop off pretty quickly Tuesday morning, with less hazardous conditions expected for the remainder of the week. The one limitation to that idea is if low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Thursday/Friday develops more than expected. If that happens, forecast wind speeds at that point would need boosted. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 61 31 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 65 36 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 67 34 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 65 43 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 68 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 68 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
#1173089 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 445 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 It`s a warm and sticky start to the work week this morning for the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the island chain are in the mid to upper 70s with a few locales at or exceeding 80. Dewpoints in the mid 70s contributing to an oppressive Monday morning. The ASOS at Key West International airport did in fact keep a low of 77 for yesterday, tying the daily record warm low temperature for the 16th. Light to gentle southeast to south breezes observed along our reef are bringing little relief to these conditions as the low level ridge axis planted over South Florida has kept these breezes subdued throughout the night. Despite high dewpoints near the surface, dry air from yesterday`s more southerly flow has strangled much of the cloud cover south of the island chain where a few shallow showers had formed earlier. Now KBYX radar is clear of any meteorological echoes. Today will start much like the previous few but will also finally transition away from this pattern. A positively tilted shortwave trough currently located over Iowa will continue to dig through the Ohio Valley. As this approaches the Eastern Seaboard, it will drag an associated cold front across Florida with its passage through the Keys aimed for later tonight. As such, rain chances remain slight for today with moisture still somewhat shallow. As the previously mentioned ridge is pushed southeast by the incoming front, breezes will freshen and shift around to the west by this evening. CAMs hint at a line of scattered showers crossing the island chain overnight as convergence increases with increasing winds resulting in a chance of showers for this period. Breezes will continue to veer to northwest by Tuesday morning as breezy and cooler conditions envelope our CWA. Breezes will gradually slacken into Tuesday night as they shift back around to the northeast to east. The forecast continues to be somewhat volatile in the extended period. Following tonight`s frontal passage, cooler and drier conditions will prevail until the end of this week. Thursday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Gulf and slide east towards Florida. As it makes its approach Thursday night, breezes will freshen and veer to the southeast. These breezes now look about 5 knots higher than the previous package due to guidance shifting the low more south than the last run. In reality, we still have a few days before we can pinpoint a more surefire solution so the exact value and timing of these enhanced wind speeds will be in flux. We can however have confidence in rising PoPs and thunder chances from Thursday night and into the weekend as waves of deep layer moisture pulled in from the low wash over our area. && .MARINE... Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Currently no watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle southeast to south breezes will turn around the clock today as a cold front approaches, with freshening breezes late tonight into Tuesday morning. Breezes continue to turn from northerly to easterly and diminish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Active weather at the end of the week will cause breezes to freshen again and begin to shift to the southwest to west by Friday night ahead of another late season cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at the EYW and MTH terminals through the day, with SE winds of 5 to 10 knots becoming SW late this morning, then becoming W to NW during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers ahead of and along an approaching cold front may impact the terminals with short periods of MVFR or IFR conditions tonight, but confidence in timing or occurrence was not high enough to include VCSH in the 06Z TAF issuance. && .CLIMATE... As we move through mid March, it appears that another winter has passed with the low temperature at Key West International Airport not dropping below 50F. The last time that Key West recorded a low temperature below 50F was on February 20 2015, when the low was 49F. Since then, 3313 consecutive days have seen the low temperature remain at or above 50F. This is the longest such streak on record. The second longest streak with low temperatures at or above 50F at Key West is 2906 days, running from January 31 1940 through January 14 1948. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 71 76 69 / 10 30 10 10 Marathon 87 71 78 69 / 10 40 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173088 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 434 AM AST Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A surface high pressure moving from central to eastern Atlantic will continue to promote breezy conditions across the region. A dry and stable pattern is expected to dominate the local weather with limited precipitation. However, passing showers across the windward sections and afternoon convection over northwestern PR remains possible. An increase of rainfall is expected for Wednesday onward. Marine and coastal conditions will continue to improve this week. A moderate rip current risk will remain along most of the northern beaches of the islands. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies prevailed across the region during the overnight hours with few passing showers noted moving over the regional waters and passages. Few showers brushed the windward side of some of the islands from time to time steered by the prevailing low level southeast winds. However, there were no significant accumulations so far. Minimum low temperatures were in the low 70s along the coastal areas and in the upper 50s to low 60s in higher elevations and valleys with some areas of patchy fog noted in the interior sections of Puerto Rico. Winds were light between 5 to 10 mph. A surface high pressure now centered across the northeast Atlantic and extending southwest into the central Atlantic to just northeast of the region will aid in maintaining a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow today, then becoming light and variable by Tuesday as the local pressure gradient relaxes. For the rest of the morning a patch of low level moisture in the easterlies will cross the region and bring periods of mostly light showers to the coastal waters and windward side of some of the islands. This will be followed by isolated to scattered afternoon convection mainly over the central and northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Mostly fair weather skies and warm conditions can be expected elsewhere and in and around the U.S. Virgin Islands during the afternoon. Later in the afternoon and evening, another slot of dry air will filter in from the east and thus limit shower activity once again across the area. For Tuesday, as previously mentioned, as the surface high lifts farther northward into the central and northeast Atlantic, local winds will continue to veer and become even lighter but mainly from the south southeast. This will result in overall drier and fair weather conditions, however expect warmer than normal temperature to continue especially along the northern portions of Puerto Rico and the island of St Croix at least into Wednesday, with maximum heat indices possibly reaching the 100s. Main impacts for this day should be mainly the warmer temperatures with mostly localized isolated to scattered showers of short duration possible during the afternoon hours. On Wednesday as gradual change in the weather pattern is forecast as a cold front and associated frontal boundary will move into the southwest Atlantic and approach the region from the west. This will induce a weak surface trough across the region and slowly increase low level moisture convergence due to the combination of remnant moisture from old frontal boundaries and that of the approaching frontal boundary. In addition the upper level ridging is to erode, as a short wave trough is forecast to cross the region by then. Consequently, expect a better chance for more passing morning showers with increasing probability for afternoon convection across the east interior and central and west sections of Puerto Rico and on the west end of the U.S. Virgin Islands where only isolated shower will be possible. Some of the afternoon shower activity may lead to ponding of water on roads and in poor drainage areas due to moderate to locally heavy rains over western Puerto Rico. && .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... A weak frontal boundary moving southeastward in the western Atlantic will begin to pass through the region on Thursday, causing a backing of the surface winds to more of a northeasterly direction and a noticeable increase of moisture content moving over the islands by Friday morning. This shifting of the winds and increase of precipitable water will bring a wetter pattern with scattered showers across eastern Puerto Rico and the USVI during the morning hours followed by afternoon convection across western Puerto Rico. On Friday, a surface low begins to develop in the Gulf of Mexico, migrating into the western Atlantic as it moves along the eastern coastline of the US meanwhile displaying nor`easter characteristics. Eastward of this system a strong surface ridge will direct a moist easterly flow locally through Saturday which will continue the pattern of an abundance of passing showers with afternoon convection, with the heaviest rainfall over western Puerto Rico during the afternoon. By Sunday the potential nor`easter would of moved into the upper western Atlantic and a Rossby wave trough develops to the southwest, positioning north of the region by Monday morning. The presence of this will cause a veering in the surface winds to a southeasterly direction on Sunday, becoming southerly and variable Monday onward. During this time precipitable water values spike as this long wave pattern brings a moist airmass and unstable conditions over the eastern Caribbean. This may bring a significant increase of rainfall across the islands for multiple areas, however model guidance is subject to change so stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conds at all terminals durg prd with VCSH AT TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 18/14Z. Mtn Top Obscr ovr E PR due to low clds and -SHRA. L/LVL wnds fm SE 15-20 KTS BLO FL150 veering w/height ABV. SFC wnd mainly fm ESE 5-10 KTS but brief wnd gusts psbl with passing SHRA. Wnds bcmg fm SE 12-15 kts aft 18/14Z. SCT lyrs nr FL025...FL050. Isold SHRA ovr regional waters en route btw islands til 18/14Z. && .MARINE... A broad surface high pressure moving into the central and eastern Atlantic will continue to promote moderate to locally fresh trade winds through early in the workweek, resulting in choppy seas. Winds will slow down by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in subsiding seas and calm conditions across the local waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Breezy conditions will continue to promote a moderate rip current risk along the beaches from northwest to northeastern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands. The protected waters of west and southern Puerto Rico, Vieques and St. Croix will remain under a low risk. The rip current risk is expected to remain moderate throughout this upcoming workweek. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly. If you do not know how to swim, we advise you to stay out of the ocean. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
#1173087 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 418 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build over the area today and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 415 AM, IR satellite and sfc observations indicated that a cold front was pushing east across inland GA and SC. The front is on pace to push offshore before daybreak. In addition, KCLX detected isolated light patches of rain over the coast of Charleston County and over portions of the nearshore waters. Based on radar trends and recent runs of the HRRR, rain will steadily push east and north of the forecast area before sunrise this morning. During the daylight hours today, winds will remain from the west- northwest with a gradual decrease in cloud cover. Given the increasing insolation and 1000-850 mb thicknesses of 1355 m or greater through this afternoon, high temperatures should range around 70 degrees. Near term guidance indicates a secondary cold front will sweep across the forecast area late this afternoon into early this evening. In the wake of the front, the pressure gradient will increase to around 5 mbs across the forecast area by mid-evening. The forecast will feature NW wind gusts between 20-25 mph during the evening. In addition, strong CAA is forecast overnight. In fact, the H85 temperature over KCHS and KSAV will cool from 5C at 0Z to near -4C by 6Z. CAA will end late tonight with the pressure gradient relaxing through the rest of the night. Given the fresh CAA, decreasing winds, and clear sky, low temperatures are expected to range around 10 degrees below normal. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures may approach freezing across a corridor from Jenkins to Allendale Counties. However, winds in excess of 5 mph and RH below 60 percent will not favor frost development. Min temperatures should favor values in the mid 30s along the I-95 corridor to around 40 degrees across the coastal counties. Lake Winds: In the wake of a secondary cold front, a steep pressure gradient and strong cold air advection will rapidly develop across Lake Moultrie this evening, decreasing late tonight. Northwest wind gusts are forecast to gust to around 25 mph tonight. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 PM until 8 AM. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will largely dominate the surface pattern during this period, although a dry cold front will pass through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Air mass remains dry and there are no notable forcing mechanisms in play, so rain-free conditions are expected through Thursday. Temperatures will be coolest on Tuesday when highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s, before moderating back to around normal. Lows are forecast to be in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s Tuesday night, then more mild in the mid 40s to lower 50s for Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weather becomes more active as we head into late week, although still some forecast details to hash out. Upper wave is expected to pass across the Southeast Friday into Friday night. At the surface, an area of low pressure is expected to develop and possibly strengthen while moving near/off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts. PWats creep up to around 1.25 inches, and with strong isentropic ascent, showers should break out late Thursday night/Friday morning and continue through the day and into Friday night. This event should bring a decent amount of rain to the area. Consensus keeps instability largely offshore so no thunder is included in the forecast at this time. The aforementioned low should continue to depart over the weekend as high pressure builds inland. Aside from some lingering showers Saturday morning, rain chances should become confined to the coastal waters. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs: KSAV observed IFR ceilings. IR satellite and upstream observations to KSAV indicated patches of MVFR ceilings. The KSAV TAF will feature IFR ceilings with a TEMPO from 7-11Z for MVFR ceiling. AT KCHS/KJZI, KCLX detect light rain across the terminals, unlikely to limit visibility under VFR. A cold front is timed to sweep across the terminals just prior to sunrise, resulting in winds to shift from the NW by 11Z. This evening, the pressure gradient will increase with strong CAA. Northwest winds are forecast to strengthen early this evening, with gusts around 25 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers possible Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Today, a cold front will sweep across the marine zones early this morning. Northwest winds should favor values of 10 to 15 kts this morning, decreasing to 5 to 10 kts this afternoon. Wave heights are forecast to remain between 1 to 2 ft today. Tonight, a secondary cold front is expected to push across the marine zones this evening. Northwest winds will rapidly strengthen through the evening, with gales developing outside the CHS Harbor by late this evening. A Gale Warning has been posted for all waters outside the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 9 AM. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the CHS Harbor from 10 PM to 6 AM. Seas should build through most of the night. Peak wave heights are expected during the pre-dawn hours, ranging from 3 ft within 10 NM from shore to 7 ft across portions of the outer GA waters. Tuesday through Saturday: Marine conditions should markedly improve on Tuesday, although there will be another brief wind surge Tuesday night with gusts to near advisory criteria, especially over the Charleston county waters. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels through Thursday. An area of low pressure is expected to pass near/off the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday. Still uncertainty with this system, but there is potential for conditions to reach advisory levels again. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173086 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 330 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: - Weak cold front this morning leading to a cooler and breezy day. - Occasional gusts to gale across the offshore waters today. - Low (10-20%) chance of minor coastal flooding. A weak cold front/surge of high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and breezy north to northeast winds to S TX today. The cooler, slightly drier air is beginning to filter into the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads this morning. The surge of high pressure will continue southward through the morning hours and is expected to reach the southern CWA between 10- 13Z. North to northeast winds will be strongest across the Coastal areas with gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds will be strongest across the marine zones and there is a low to medium (10-30%) chance of gusts to gale force, mainly across the offshore waters. An upper disturbance and sufficient mid/upper level moisture will bring a slight chance to chance (10-50%) of mainly showers to the area. A few thunderstorms will also be possible given some mid level instability. The better chances for convection will be along the Rio Grande Plains where PoPs are up to 50%. Chances range from 20-35% across the Brush Country and southern Coastal Bend. The Victoria Crossroads is the least likely to have precipitation today with PoPs <15%. Rain chances end by this evening as weak upper level ridging builds across the region. Although winds strengthen today, RH values will remain elevated due to the cooler temperatures, thus fire weather concerns are low. Mostly cloudy skies will continue across most of S TX today, however, Highs will be in the 60s both today and Tuesday with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s most locations tonight. Strong northeast winds and large seas developing across the gulf waters today will likely lead to elevated tide levels. The uncertainty is just how high the tides will get to. The PETSS shows tides up to 1.5 MSL during high tide this afternoon, which is typically not impactful. However, the energy from increasing swell periods and seas may help to push the water up to the dunes during high tide. Will continue to monitor trends for possible minor coastal flooding. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Key Messages: -Chance of Showers and Thunderstorms Wednesday Night into Thursday - 40-50% Chance of Sea Fog Wednesday evening The period will begin with moisture returning to the region Wednesday as a surface high pressure shifts eastwards. This will increase our dew points back into the upper 60s along the coast and in the coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon/evening. Sea surface temperatures will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s during this time. Winds should be around 10 knots therefore, a chance will exist for sea fog to develop along the coast and nearshore waters. NBM ensembles were in agreement with this and portray a 40-50% chance. The upper level low that has been parked over the Four Corners region will finally be on the move Wednesday. It will send our next cold front through the area while PWAT values are expected to increase to above normal values ahead of the front. Models (GFS/ECMWF) indicate the presence of instability to go along with the upper forcing in the area from the front. As a result of these components, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will exist beginning late Wednesday night into the day Thursday. The west could see the 90s by this weekend. A surface high move into the area in the wake of the front Thursday. High temperatures are expected to warm by Friday back into the lower 80s to upper 80s out west. As the surface high shifts eastwards early next week, the gradient will tighten over the area which will increase our winds over the waters. This will create the potential for SCA conditions in the latter half of the period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs currently across S TX this evening are expected to become generally MVFR area wide overnight. CIGs are expected to improve to VFR by mid to late Monday morning. A surge of high pressure/frontal boundary, with slightly drier low levels and gusty northeast winds, is expected to push south across S TX between 08Z-12Z. NE winds will strengthen behind the boundary with gusts around 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots will be possible across the CRP TAF site due to proximity to the coast. As for rain chances, the highest chances (30-50%) are across the LRD and ALI areas overnight ahead of the boundary into Monday behind the boundary. There is a slight chance (10-20%) across the remainder of S TX. && .MARINE... Issued at 329 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front this morning will bring strong northeast winds to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters today. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible, mainly across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers are possible, mainly this morning. Winds will decrease overnight, becoming weak to moderate by Tuesday morning. Weak to moderate northeast winds can be expected through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday. There is a chance (40-50%) for sea fog to develop Wednesday afternoon/evening. An upper level disturbance will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier conditions expected Friday. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Wednesday. Generally weak winds Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong flow is expected early next week. This will likely warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 54 66 57 / 30 0 0 0 Victoria 68 47 63 52 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 64 54 67 58 / 50 10 0 10 Alice 66 51 65 54 / 30 0 0 0 Rockport 71 55 67 58 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 50 62 55 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 67 54 66 56 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 59 68 60 / 30 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173085 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 416 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move through the area this morning followed by breezy conditions and below normal temperatures thru Tue night. Milder temps and continued dry conditions to occur thru the mid-week period. Rain chances return Fri thru Sat as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward up the Southeast States Atlantic coast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front is currently pushing into the far inland portions of our CWA, outrunning the trough aloft. Winds will start to come around to the west and then the northwest with its passage. The front will be offshore by the morning, dry air filtering in gradually. Enough moisture should hang on in the column through the day for there to be a mix of clouds and sun through the day. A decent breeze should linger through the day so went a bit milder on highs, low to mid 60s. Similarly went lower on the dewpoints due to decent mixing. Increased fire danger might be possible as aftn RH values dip below 30 percent with gusts up to 20 mph. The upper trough will be passing overhead tonight, a surge of low and mid-level moisture ahead of it. SE NC could see some brief, light showers late this evening with the passage of this disturbance. NW winds will also increase at this time, gusting around 25-30 mph. Lows will fall into the mid 30s, but with the strong overnight breeze frost formation is unlikely. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... CAA will peak early Tue via various thickness schemes, followed by the offshore movement of the 5H trof axis during Tue. NAA followed by WAA by late Tue as 5H heights/1k-5h thicknesses rise. Sfc pg remains tightened Tue thru Wed with breezy conditions resulting, especially during daylight hrs both days. The WAA Wed may push temps above 70 for highs. Otherwise, temps well below normal Tue, rise to at or just above normal Wed thru Wed night. Next dry CFP slated late Wed/Wed nite as flow drives sfc ridging out of Central Canada to the Carolinas. At this point, winds stay active enough to keep temps aoa 40 along with no frost issues. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For Thu thru Thu night, flow aloft basically NW that backs to westerly. Under CAA initially that becomes neutral. Temps to run at or slightly below normal. Skies generally cloud free initially that will see high level moisture late Thu night from the south. Southern stream mid-level s/w trof to gain steam in the Gulf of Mexico Fri. GFS indicates a full Gale/Storm off the Carolina Coasts Fri night into Sat as the sfc low and mid-level s/w trof lift NE-ward. The European on the other hand keeps it benign early in the weekend, then closes/cutoffs the upper low off the Carolina Coast late in the weekend with sfc Gale/Storm possible. Overall, will have rain chances capped around 50% later Fri thru Sat night with some low chance pops mainly at or off the coasts Sun/Sun night. Have indicated mainly stratiform rains Fri into Fri night with isolated thunder at and off the coasts late Fri night into Sat as the low passes by, moving along an offshore/coastal waters coastal trof that does not get pulled inland but comes close to the immediate coast. Lot of questions remain with this system especially with various model continuity. Temps Fri thru Sun to remain at or below normal due to clouds and pcpn. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Have VCSH in at coastal terminals for the next couple hours as the axis of rain shifts closer to the coast and then offshore. Occasional gusts 15-20kts are showing up at several obs stations ahead of the front which is still further inland so kept increased wind speeds through tonight. Winds will shift to out of the NW closer to daybreak as the front moves offshore with a gradual return to west winds through the day. Another surge will arrive towards the end of the period with stronger NW winds. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...NW winds 10-15 kts will decrease to near 10 kts this afternoon becoming SW once more ahead of another disturbance. As this disturbance approaches through the evening into the night, winds will reach SCA criteria with gusts up to 30 kts, becoming NW once more around midnight. Seas near 2 ft will increase to 2-4 ft tonight with a strong NW wind wave. Tuesday through Friday night...SCA thresholds will be ongoing early Tue before temporarily dropping below during Tue as the sfc pg relaxes slightly and a change from CAA to NAA occurs. The sfc pg tightens Tue night thru Wed ahead of the next cold front. With WAA, am suspect that SW-WSW winds may eclipse SCA thresholds even when combined with the re-tightening of the sfc pg. Nevertheless, potential is there to highlight the SCA possibility. Dry CFP Wed night, followed by CAA and the sfc pg relaxing during Thu. Look for wind shift to the N-NE Thu, becoming E thruout with increasing speeds Fri. Coastal trof to develop just offshore Fri, with E winds 15 to 20 kt within coastal waters, and SE at SCA thresholds on the other side of the trof. Will see SCA thresholds eclipsed by seas Fri/Fri night. The seas will have a decent fetch for which to build upon and as a result, will observe the hier seas just offshore bleed into the coastal waters Fri/Fri night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 416 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast of the area and out to sea this morning. A stronger cold front will cross the area this evening into Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance moving along the front could produce a few showers over extreme southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into early Tuesday morning. Dry weather is then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Early this morning, a cold front was about to push SE of NE NC. Isolated showers were along the boundary over portions of NE NC. Otherwise, the sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the region with temps ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s. The showers and cold front will push farther SE of the area and out to sea this morning. NW or N winds are/will be ushering much drier air and cooler high temps for today. The sky will become partly sunny later this morning, with highs today ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... A trough aloft, over the Great Lakes early this morning, will dig into and across the Mid Atlc tonight. Again, there may be just enough moisture for isolated to sctd showers in SE VA/NE NC this evening into early Tue morning. But otherwise, it will stay dry over most of the region. Cold tonight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s SE VA/NE NC. Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Could see gusts to 20-30 mph. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Highs will range through the 60s. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 410 AM EDT Monday... High pressure builds into and over the area for Thu into Thu night. Then, model differences still remain for the srn stream low pressure system for the weekend. The 00z/18 GFS is faster with tracking the low pressure system up along the SE and Mid Atlc coast later Fri into Sat aftn, and then quickly out to sea Sat evening. While the 00z/18 ECMWF is much slower tracking the low up along the SE coast for Fri evening into Sat evening, and actually then stalling it off the SE coast and dropping it SSE well off the SE coast for Sat night through Mon. At this time, fcst will lean toward the GFS, with best chances for rain from later Fri aftn through Sat. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the fcst for late Sat night through Sun or ern/SE portions of the region. Highs will range through the 50s Thu, in the mid to upper 50s Fri, in the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, and range through the 50s Sun. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Tue morning. Any isolated showers over extrm SE VA/NE NC will exit off the coast by 09Z this morning, as a cold front will push SE of the area and well offshore by later this morning. Winds have or will become NW or N behind the frontal passage, and increasing to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid morning as deep mixing sets up. Outlook...A few showers will be possible this evening into early Tue morning over SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail from Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now offshore. There was a brief surge with the frontal passage itself, followed by a brief lull. With a surge of weak CAA now ensuing, we`re noting an uptick of NW winds to ~15-20 kt over the northern portions of the bay with gusts to 25-30 kt. Expect this surge will push south across the middle and lower Bay zones over the next 1-2 hours, then slowly diminishing by mid-morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay until 10am. Waves of 2-3 ft in the bay with seas also remaining around 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore. NW winds briefly subside to 10-15 kt (gusts to ~20 kt in the eastern VA rivers) this aftn before quickly increasing again tonight in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA. Will not raise headlines until the current set can be lowered, but widespread SCAs are likely for all waters late tonight through early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt. Seas also increase to 4-6 ft. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the lower James and lower bay in a developing SW wind regime. Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) expected through Thu. There remains considerable uncertainty for next weekend, as some sort of cyclogenesis occurs to our S along a coastal trough over the Carolina coast Fri/Sat. Given continued large spatial and temporal differences among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri through next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front which moved through overnight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for today and again on Tue. Despite deep mixing today, NNW winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier tonight, as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible on Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
#1173083 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:20 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 403 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... ...Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Today... ...Much Cooler Temperatures Forecast Behind The Cold Front Tuesday Into Wednesday... ...Low Pressure System Late Week To Bring Increased Rain Chances... Current-This Morning...Latest surface analysis indicates a cold front stretched across northeast Florida and into the Florida big bend. Stratiform rain continues across northeast Florida early this morning as a mid level vorticity boundary advances southeastward ahead of the front. CAM guidance suggests showers will gradually diminish as the line advances towards the I-4 corridor, but a few showers remain possible across northern counties before sunrise. Low stratus has developed across north Florida beneath an area of high cloud cover. Stratus is forecast to move into east central Florida ahead of sunrise, remaining generally north of a line from Cape Canaveral/ Lake Kissimmee. Southwest surface winds around 5 mph should be just enough to limit fog development, however, there remains low confidence in patchy fog development across the south where skies remain clear. Today-Tonight...The cold front moves southward into east central Florida as mid level support advance ahead. Southwest flow increases ahead of the front, limiting the development and inland extent of an east coast sea breeze. Coverage of showers and storms increases across the I-4 corridor through mid morning with greatest coverage (~60-70%) shifting southward into the afternoon. A conditional threat of severe storms exists across east central Florida today, and SPC has highlighted the area in a Marginal Risk. Low level instability is apparent with model soundings indicating steep low level lapse rates and surface based CAPE values ranging 1,400-1,700 J/kg. Poor lapse rates generally between 800-600mb could serve as a limiting factor in the potential severe threat today. Strong mid level winds and cold temperatures aloft (~ -12C @ 500mb) could support a strong to severe storm where tall updrafts are able to occur. Strong to marginally severe storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 60 mph, small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. The greatest confidence in a strong to severe storm lies south of a line from Melbourne to Lake Marion where the greatest day time heating is expected, and temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 80s. Temperatures remain cooler across the north with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Coverage of showers diminishes across the Treasure Coast into the evening as the cold front moves across south Florida. Breezy, northerly winds build overnight. Tuesday-Wednesday...High pressure builds into the southern states behind the cold front Tuesday, then stretches into the Florida region on Wednesday. Much drier and cooler air will be advected into the local area by post-frontal northerly winds. Forecast PWATs mid- week as low as 0.2-0.5". Needless to say, no precipitation is forecast. Breezy northerly winds Tuesday morning will diminish into the afternoon, then become light on Wednesday, with a sea breeze at the coast. The big story will be the much cooler temperatures. After several days of well above normal temperatures, highs only reaching the mid to upper 60s, with lower 60s along the Volusia County coast, will likely come as a surprise to many. Temperatures then warm to near normal Wednesday, reaching the lower to mid-70s, with upper 70s inland from the Treasure Coast. Overnight lows will be well below normal Tuesday night, as skies clear and dew points plummet. Forecast lows fall into the 40s during this period. Elevated winds will also make temperatures feel like the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area Wednesday morning. Like daytime highs, temperatures Wednesday night will begin to warm, but remain below normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with some mid-50s along the coast south of the Cape. Thursday-Saturday...Dry conditions prevail through the afternoon on Thursday, despite a breakdown of the ridge over the southern states. A shortwave will then dig through the Deep South, generating a low pressure system over the GOMEX. Models are in good agreement that this low will somewhere over the Florida peninsula Friday into Friday night. However, there are discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF on exactly where the crossing takes place. The GFS takes a northerly track, while the Euro passes southward. Regardless, deeper moisture looks to return to east central Florida beginning Thursday night , with PWATs increasing to up to 1.6". While CAPE looks to be limited, have included a mention for a slight chance of lightning storms Friday into Friday evening. Instead, widespread rainfall, with some locally heavy rainfall possible, looks to be the main threat. PoPs Thursday night through Friday up to 70%, with the most rainfall occurring during the daytime hours on Friday. High cloud cover and precipitation keeps highs near-normal both days, in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 80s across the interior. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Models diverge Saturday as the GFS rapidly takes the low northeastward along a cold front, ingesting it into a stronger low pressure over southeastern Canada. Meanwhile, the ECMWF has the low linger along the Carolina coastline. Both solutions would lead to northerly flow, though wind speeds vary. Scattered showers persist Saturday as the low pulls away from shore, with lingering PoPs over the waters Saturday night, occasionally drifting onshore into the Treasure Coast. Temperatures remain near-normal Saturday. Sunday-Monday...Model differences persist Sunday into early next week, as the GFS suggests a trough over the eastern US, while the ECMWF retrogrades the earlier low closer to the Florida coast, where it deepens significantly. Both solutions maintain elevated winds over the Atlantic waters and along the coast. However, the difference in wind direction (onshore for the GFS and parallel to shore for the ECMWF) will make the difference for coastal/marine hazards. Given the differences, went with the NBM solution for the current forecast, which more closely resembles the GFS. Some lingering showers possible Sunday over the Atlantic and along the coast south of the Cape, then drier on Monday, though this is low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Today-Tonight...A cold front moves across the local waters today promoting scattered to numerous showers. An isolated severe storm will be possible with wind gust greater than 34 kts. Southwest winds increase and veer behind the front. Seas become hazardous overnight with sustained northerly winds of 25-30 kts. Occasional gusts to Gale force will be possible. Northerly winds quickly build seas to 6- 8 ft nearshore and 8-10 ft offshore tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will take effect at 10 PM across offshore Volusia and offshore Brevard, expanding to all east central Florida waters at 1 AM. Tuesday-Wednesday...Northerly winds 20-25kts early Tuesday decrease through the day, then become light and variable on Wednesday, as high pressure builds into the southern US. However, poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue, as seas will be slow to subside. Seas 7-10ft Tuesday morning become 3-4ft nearshore north of Sebastian Inlet by the evening, but remain up to 6-8ft in the Gulf Stream. Will see conditions improve by Wednesday afternoon, as seas fall to 2-4ft. No precipitation forecast through the period. Thursday-Friday...High pressure breaks down on Thursday, as a shortwave through digs through the southern US. This feature is forecast to develop a low pressure system over the GOMEX, which will then cross the Florida peninsula through late week. Model discrepancies exist on the placement of this low. However, increasing shower chances, with a few lightning storms are expected by Thursday night into Friday. Onshore flow around 8-12kts Thursday veers southeasterly late Thursday night and increases to 15-20kts. Then, winds become southerly at 15-20kts Friday. Seas 1-2ft building to 4-5ft, with up to 6ft well offshore, by late Friday afternoon. Seas up to 7ft forecast offshore Friday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Tuesday-Thursday...Very dry conditions through mid-week, as post- frontal air leads to min RH values around 45% or lower Tuesday area- wide and as low as the upper 20%s across the interior. This will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions when combined with northerly winds 10-15mph, and up to 15-20mph along the coast, Tuesday morning. But, will see winds decrease by Tuesday afternoon. Good to very good dispersion in the morning will become fair to good through the day. Further drying is then forecast Wednesday, with widespread min RHs in the mid to upper 20%s, while coastal areas south of the Cape remain in the mid to upper 30%s. However, winds become light, as high pressure builds into the area. Wind directions will be variable, but a sea breeze is possible during the afternoon. Lighter winds will lead to poor to fair dispersion. Will see some improvement Thursday, though min RH 35-45% is still forecast, with the driest conditions inland. Winds increase once again, becoming easterly around 8-12mph in the afternoon. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 402 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Prevailing MVFR stratus is forecast to move southward towards the interior terminals before sunrise. TEMPOs included for periods of IFR CIGs. Stratus will linger into the afternoon as it spreads towards southward terminals. VCSH/VCTS increases from north to south as a cold front moves across east central Florida. SHRA TEMPOs included at DAB/SFB/LEE/TIX. Southwest winds ahead of the front increase and veer northerly as the front passes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 48 62 42 / 70 10 0 0 MCO 83 52 67 46 / 70 20 0 0 MLB 83 55 66 47 / 60 30 0 0 VRB 87 57 69 47 / 60 30 0 0 LEE 78 48 67 44 / 60 10 0 0 SFB 81 50 66 44 / 70 20 0 0 ORL 82 52 67 47 / 70 20 0 0 FPR 86 57 69 46 / 50 30 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550- 552. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555- 575. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572. && $$ |
#1173082 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 405 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this morning. Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 0320 Monday...Cold front currently right on the doorstep of our NWern zones sinks S through the FA through the early morning hours and is forecast to be offshore by 0800-0900edt, taking the chances of showers with it leading to a dry, cool, and clearing morning. This will eventually shift winds from SWerly to NWerly with a few potential gusts to 20 kts as it does so. CAA persists at the SFC through the morning hours which will lead to MaxTs a few degrees cooler than the last couple of days, low 60s inland, mid 60s Sern coast, low to mid 50s NOBX where onshore flow off cool shelf waters limits heating. The stout, vertically stacked trough over NECONUS continues to dig S while sliding Eward. This will lead to an end to the partial clearing experienced in the wake of the front as cloud coverage builds back over the FA. As the base of the trough aloft approaches the area, the jet on the upward leg of the trough strengthens leading to 500mb winds on the order of 100kts. This dynamic pattern above the PBL may be enough to support some showers this evening and tonight, but moisture is really lacking with PWATs from last night`s sounding already below one inch continue to drop off to 0.5-0.75in at best. However, a weak soundbreeze for Nern zones could create enough convergence and moisture pooling to spark some late afternoon/early evening showers. Will carry a slight chance for areas near Alligator River where soundbreeze(s) could converge and NOBX where the flow aloft would carry any showers that do pop up. Have also increased PoPs for the Crystal Coast where the seabreeze will be pinned to the coast, but opted to keep them just below SChc. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 0335 Monday...Aforementioned stacked trough and its associated jet continues its digging Eward slide over the Mid- Atlantic, swinging the trough axis through most of the FA overnight. Again, moisture is really lacking behind the SFC front and widespread appreciable rainfall is not expected but the mid and upper level dynamics can`t be ignored. Carry SChc- Chc PoPs through most of the overnight period with transit of the trough axis, best chance over the coast where more moisture in the mid and low levels will be. Any rain chances push offshore quickly in the early morning hours as the trough axis reaches the coast around sunrise. Max QPF overnight around a tenth of an in. Zones on the W of the trough axis will experience a more typical "post cold front" environment with a brief but strong NWerly surge of CAA. MinTs in the low 30s inland (but above freezing), mid to upper 30s Inner Banks, around 40 OBX. Frost is not expected with RHs in the 50s and 10+kt winds persisting. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. CAA continues through Tuesday with breezy W-NW winds and temps well below normal with highs in the 50s. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0100 Monday...VFR flight cats through the TAF period. At this time, precipitation associated with FROPA is expected to be minimal and most likely for KOAJ or KEWN with lesser chances at the inland terminals. Winds will stay mostly below ten kts overnight with the occasional higher gust in the immediate vicinity of the front. Wind directions will remain SWerly ahead of the front and then quickly veering to NWerly behind it. Winds become Werly this afternoon as vertically stacked trough approaches, again becoming breezy NWerly overnight MON night. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Tue and Wed, with gusts 15-25 kt each afternoon. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 0400 Monday...Currently SWerly winds continue at 10-15 kts with a few of the outer buoys gusting upwards of 20 kts with 2-4ft seas with the occasional 5 feet near the edges of our central waters marine zones. Winds expected to remain sub SCA but some gusts approaching 25kt possible near GStream. Showers spreading from SW to NE possible overnight ahead of the front after which, winds will become N-NWerly, peaking 15-20kt immediately behind the front but gradually decreasing through the morning becoming Nerly AoB 10kt this evening, but this relaxing of the winds will be short lived as stout NWerly CAA on the order of 10-20G30kt developing late tonight which has prompted the issuance of SCAs for all coastal and inland waters. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through the day MON, with some 4-5 footers possible for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Winds will slowly relax Tuesday with conditions progged to drop below SCA criteria by late morning and early afternoon. However, moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Mon...Slightly elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Drier Tue with min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts to 20 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173081 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast of the area and out to sea this morning. A stronger cold front will cross the area this evening into Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance moving along the front could produce a few showers over extreme southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into early Tuesday morning. Dry weather is then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Early this morning, a cold front was about to push SE of NE NC. Isolated showers were along the boundary over portions of NE NC. Otherwise, the sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the region with temps ranging from the upper 40s to lower 60s. The showers and cold front will push farther SE of the area and out to sea this morning. NW or N winds are/will be ushering much drier air and cooler high temps for today. The sky will become partly sunny later this morning, with highs today ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... A trough aloft, over the Great Lakes early this morning, will dig into and across the Mid Atlc tonight. Again, there may be just enough moisture for isolated to sctd showers in SE VA/NE NC this evening into early Tue morning. But otherwise, it will stay dry over most of the region. Cold tonight with lows ranging from the upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s SE VA/NE NC. Cool with a breezy W wind on Tue, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Highs will be in the lower to mid 50s. Could see gusts to 20-30 mph. Quiet/dry weather will prevail for Tue night through Wed night. Clear to partly cloudy Tue night with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wed will be the warmest day of the week, most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through later Wed into Wed night. Highs will range through the 60s. Clear or mostly clear Wed night with lows ranging through the 30s into the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... High pressure builds into and over the area for Thu into Thu night. Then, model differences still remain for the srn stream low pressure system for the weekend. The 00z and 06z GFS are faster and farther west, leading to rain moving into the area as early as Friday, with low pressure tracking right along the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the associated AIFS is slower and further east, with the best rainfall confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance shows those solutions and everything in between. In summary, the confidence in the rainfall chances for next weekend are lower than usual. There seems to be a model consensus of the best probability of precip being on Saturday and across east/SE VA and NE NE. Have opted to maintain chance pops across the entire region starting Friday night and maintaining those through Saturday night. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday as well although the ECMWF solution would be quite wet for Sunday (even though the associated AIFS is dry). Guidance spread in guidance is quite large for the weekend owing to the uncertainty of the evolution of the weekend system. NBM consensus suggests highs to stay below normal from Thu-Sun, but the range is generally from the low/mid 50s-mid 60s so the temperature forecast for the weekend remains an uncertain one as well. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Tue morning. Any isolated showers over extrm SE VA/NE NC will exit off the coast by 09Z this morning, as a cold front will push SE of the area and well offshore by later this morning. Winds have or will become NW or N behind the frontal passage, and increasing to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid morning as deep mixing sets up. Outlook...A few showers will be possible this evening into early Tue morning over SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail from Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 355 AM EDT Monday... Latest analysis reveals sfc cold front now offshore. There was a brief surge with the frontal passage itself, followed by a brief lull. With a surge of weak CAA now ensuing, we`re noting an uptick of NW winds to ~15-20 kt over the northern portions of the bay with gusts to 25-30 kt. Expect this surge will push south across the middle and lower Bay zones over the next 1-2 hours, then slowly diminishing by mid-morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Chesapeake Bay until 10am. Waves of 2-3 ft in the bay with seas also remaining around 2-3 ft, up to 4 ft well offshore. NW winds briefly subside to 10-15 kt (gusts to ~20 kt in the eastern VA rivers) this aftn before quickly increasing again tonight in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA. Will not raise headlines until the current set can be lowered, but widespread SCAs are likely for all waters late tonight through early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt. Seas also increase to 4-6 ft. Generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the lower James and lower bay in a developing SW wind regime. Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) expected through Thu. There remains considerable uncertainty for next weekend, as some sort of cyclogenesis occurs to our S along a coastal trough over the Carolina coast Fri/Sat. Given continued large spatial and temporal differences among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri through next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front which moved through overnight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for today and again on Tue. Despite deep mixing today, NNW winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier tonight, as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible on Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
#1173080 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 302 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A Rex Block pattern continues to hold through the short term, with a ridge across the Pacific NW and a cut-off low across the Desert SW, maintaining an active pattern, with a couple weak shortwaves or perturbations in the mostly southwesterly flow sliding through Deep South Texas this afternoon and again early Tuesday. At the surface, the front has stalled just offshore and across the border. High pressure builds this morning, with a stronger northeasterly flow arriving by mid morning. Expect breezy to near windy conditions along the lower Texas coast through the afternoon, with overrunning precip near the coast and mid to lower valley and general showers picking up as the mid-level energy swings by into this afternoon. Most rainfall will come by way of light drizzle, light rain, and light showers. An isolated rumble or two of thunder is still possible with the passing instability aloft and front meandering in the area, but confidence is much lower and surface based instability is very low or nonexistent. Overall, some beneficial rainfall should hopefully find some rain gauges into this afternoon, with temperatures generally holding where they are now or only slightly dipping near daybreak before returning this afternoon. Thick cloud cover keeps lows from falling out of the mid to upper 50s tonight, and Tuesday highs nudge back into the mid to upper 60s, also stifled by a lack of sunshine and northerly winds slowly turning easterly. Beach hazards return with the northeasterly push this morning into this afternoon. A High Rip Current Risk is expected through tonight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect mid morning into tonight, with an accompanying Coastal Flood Statement through the same time period. MHHW guidance shows a steady march toward 1 foot by late morning, with high tide at 3:36 PM. This would lead to narrow beaches late morning through the afternoon, with already narrow beaches potentially becoming impassable. May need a Coastal Flood Advisory if observed water levels pop above guidance this afternoon or tidal run-up reaches the dunes. Some guidance follows with another round of tidal run-up Tuesday afternoon or evening, but confidence is lower at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is in store for the region during the long-term forecast period with a mainly zonal (less amplified) pattern in place. Wednesday evening into Thursday, global forecast models/ensembles continue to depict a shortwave trough and associated low pressure system tracking into the region. Mid-upper energies/impulses tracking overhead could help to ignite some showers and thunderstorms during this timeframe. For now, have 30- 40% PoPs across the area during this timeframe. Otherwise, expect for dry and tranquil weather to prevail through the long-term period with subsidence and a surface high in control. Temperatures are expected to run normal to warmer than normal through the long-term period. Highs in the 80s with pockets of 90s return to the region later in the week and through next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 LIFR conditions have settled into the BRO area and may not budge much this morning with light rain and reduced visibility. MVFR conditions are relatively close, and there may be periods of improvement. MFE is currently VFR, but expected to slip to MVFR like HRL in the next couple of hours. A stronger blast of northerly winds arrives by mid morning and continues into this evening as high pressure builds. Light rain and showers are possible through the afternoon across the RGV. There is a low confidence in thunderstorms at this time, but a couple of rumbles are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Now through Tuesday...A frontal boundary sits just offshore along the lower Texas coast, with high pressure expected to build by mid- morning and a moderate to strong northeasterly flow arriving. This will drive Small Craft Advisory conditions across all coastal waters this morning into tonight, continuing across the Gulf through tonight, and edging into offshore waters through Tuesday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon. Tuesday night through Sunday night....Favorable marine conditions are expected to take place through Saturday with light to moderate winds and subsiding seas. Southerly winds are expected to increase on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 70 62 70 64 / 50 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 69 58 70 60 / 50 10 0 0 MCALLEN 68 59 69 62 / 60 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 56 68 60 / 60 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 64 67 65 / 40 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 62 69 63 / 40 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455. from 10 AM CDT this morning through late tonight for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ150-155. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ170-175. && $$ |
#1173079 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 353 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE SOUTH ZONES TODAY... ...MUCH COLDER TONIGHT... ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A cold front is located from SC, across southeast GA, and to the central FL panhandle. Weak pre-frontal trough appears to extend southwest to northeast over northeast FL. Broad mid/upper level troughing extends across the eastern U.S., with a strong shortwave trough diving southeast across the Midwest. Locally, scattered mainly light showers extend across the area and some instability extends across northeast FL with MUCAPE of about 500-1000 J/kg, highest over toward the I-75 corridor. Upstream, some scattered weak convection is noted across the northeast GOMEX. The cold front will slowly shift southward today and when combined with increasing lift with shortwave energy will support scattered to numerous showers and a few storms today across northeast FL. The environment is supportive of isolated strong storms, with forecast guidance showing MUCAPE of up to 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear of 50 kt, with the main focus across the srn most zones. SPC has outline a marginal risk of severe storms in this area today, with mainly a wind threat threat and lower hail threat. Most of the activity will be south of the area 5-6 pm today. Skies will be mostly cloudy through at least early aftn with decreasing cloudiness developing from the northwest. Winds will shift to the northwest during the day, but not reach more than about 10-15 mph, with highs today expected in the upper 60s to lower to mid 70s. Tonight, skies will clear up tonight except for some thin cirrus. A strong pressure gradient develops with stronger pressure rises of 2-4 mb/3 hours developing as high pressure tries to build in quickly behind the cold front. Gusty winds from the northwest anticipated with winds of 15-25 mph with a few gusts of at least 30 mph. Much colder tonight with lows from the upper 30s to lower and mid 40s, and wind chills becoming widespread in the lower to mid 30s inland areas by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 High pressure building into the area will bring dry weather over much of the upcoming week. Northwest flow will allow for cooler air to tickle in, leading to temperatures to be nearly 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The tight pressure gradient will ease on Tuesday as high pressure continues to build into the area leading to a shift to light westerly winds by Tuesday night and continuing through midweek. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to trend upward to sit at just near normal. A shift in the winds is expected during the morning hours on Thursday as the high pressure moves off towards the northeast ahead of a low pressure system over the Gulf. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Precipitation chances return as a low pressure system over the Gulf is expected to move over the Florida peninsula from Thursday night through Friday. The latest GFS run indicates a more northerly track as it moves from southwest to northeast. As such, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move in over north central Florida and spread to the rest of the local area as the low moves through. Estimates of 0.5 inches to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with higher locally higher amounts expected over north central Florida. By the weekend, dry conditions look to become reestablished as the low moves off towards the northeast and high pressure builds in over the area. Below normal temperatures during the forecast period are expected as daytime temperatures mainly in the low to mid 70s for NE FL and the upper 60s for SE GA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two are expected early this morning in association with a cold frontal passage through the forecast area. This activity will bring a period of MVFR conditions early this morning. For now, kept VCTS out of the forecast and will monitor some activity coming in off the Gulf that may be bring a thunderstorm to near GNV and SGJ around 10z-14z. The convection will move off the coast late this morning and will also bring periods of low ceilings to MVFR and IFR through the early aftn. Even a low potential for LIFR cigs at GNV centered around 10z-13z, with lower chances for remaining TAF sites. Flight conditions improve later today, with SSI becoming VFR cigs by 17z-18z and rest of the sites near 18z-22z. Sfc winds southwest to west 5-10 kt, and will become west and northwest by 08z-13z, and then prevailing northwest winds by 14z-15z, increasing to about 10 kt. Winds will increase further after 00z as the pressure gradient tightens. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds are westerly about 10-15 kt and seas noted to be mostly around 2 ft or less. Cold front will slowly push across the area waters today and will be accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across northeast FL. Northwest to north winds will rapidly increase tonight with enough support to trigger a gale warning for area waters, with gale conditions for at least 4-8 hours. Will probably be a short duration small craft advisory for Tuesday morning, but winds will decrease quickly as high pressure builds in from the west. Winds continue to be light into Wed and early Thu as high pressure ridge extends across the region. Winds will increase Thu night as the next low pressure system moves into the eastern GOMEX. Still looks like the low pres system will scoot just south of the marine area Fri night, and then into the western Atlantic Sat morning. Rip Currents: Low risk today with low surf of about 1 foot. Increased risk will be possible on Tuesday due to increased northerly winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 340 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is now occurring for Satilla River at Atkinson. These levels will remain elevated into late week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 37 62 39 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 72 41 61 42 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 73 40 63 39 / 60 0 0 0 SGJ 73 43 61 41 / 80 0 0 0 GNV 76 40 66 38 / 70 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 66 37 / 70 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474. && $$ |
#1173078 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:51 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will finish sweeping southeast through the forecast area this morning, followed by gusty northwest winds this afternoon that will usher in a cool and dry air mass. A light freeze is possible tonight in some Alabama and Georgia counties, A light frost is possible on Wednesday morning in colder inland pockets under the influence of light winds and efficient radiational cooling. A surface low will track across the Gulf on Thursday night. It is then likely to pass south of the area and across the Florida Peninsula on Friday. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Light shower activity should be exiting the Florida Big Bend through the early morning hours as the cold front finally pushes through the CWA. In the cold fronts wake, dry air will be advecting into the region throughout the day, which will quickly scour out any lingering clouds by mid-day, with near clear skies expected by the evening. Across the upper levels, a late season trough is expected to dig south into south central Georgia by tonight, which will aid in the cold air advection across the region as 500mb heights fall areawide. In conjunction with the aforementioned height falls, surface pressure will be quickly increasing throughout the day as high pressure pushes into the region today. This will lead to a tight pressure gradient across the region as well as gusty afternoon winds. While temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s areawide, the potential for frost is looking less likely as winds look to remain elevated through the overnight hours. RH values from 06-12 UTC look to peak around 60%, which is low for frost development. While frost is unlikely, there could be the potential for patchy frost in sheltered locations where ground moisture may lead to micro-climates of higher RH across portions of SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These locations have the best chances for frost development given the cooler low temperatures forecast tonight. High temperatures today will struggle against cold air advection; however, they are expected to climb into the mid 60s in SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Deep west-northwest upper level flow will keep the weather cool and dry. A cool continental surface high will drop south through eastern Texas, with a ridge axis extending east. This ridge axis will pass south across the service area on Tuesday, then hang out over the northern Gulf on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given its proximity on Tuesday night, winds will readily go calm. Clear skies and dry air will provide ideal conditions for radiational cooling. So early Wednesday morning will be the most favorable time for our typically colder spots to bottom out in the mid 30s and support some patchy frost. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The cutoff upper low which has loitered over the Southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico will finally budge this week and start to move straight east. As the upper trough axis crosses the Southern Plains on Thursday, upper level diffluence will overspread the Gulf on Thursday night, and a dual jet structure will be favorable for a strengthening surface low moving east across the Gulf. The most likely track would take the surface low across the FL Peninsula on Friday. This most likely track would keep the forecast area on the cooler and more stable poleward side of the low, with rain and showers, and perhaps some embedded elevated thunder over our FL counties. However, there is a notable cluster of ensemble members that take the low more northeast across the Big Bend region and far south Georgia. If this lefthand track were to verify, then a warm, moist unstable air mass would have a chance to spread northward as well, with the structure of the low possibly supporting hodographs and a shear profile favorable to all convective modes around Friday. Again, this outcome will be highly conditional on a more lefthand track of the low. Regardless of the track that the low takes, once it moves out into the Atlantic, dry northerly surface winds on its back side will arrive in time for next weekend. Despite the northerly winds, the air mass next weekend looks quite seasonable, with near normal temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR to LIFR restrictions are currently being observed across all terminals tonight. These conditions look to improve through the remainder of the overnight hours, and into the morning hours. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by mid morning. Gusty northwest winds to around 20-25 knots will be present at all terminals during the afternoon hours, but are expected to relax by the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will sweep across the waters early this morning. Northwest breezes behind the front will become strong by this evening, with a few gusts approaching gale-force tonight. A high pressure ridge extending eastward from Texas will quickly settle over the waters Tuesday afternoon, remaining in place through Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will quickly move east across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula on Thursday night and Friday. North of the low, easterly breezes will develop, possibly becoming strong at times. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 An upper level trough will push through the region today, which will lead to gusty northwest winds through the mid morning and afternoon hours. These strong winds combined with mixing heights around 4,400 to 4,600 feet will lead to high dispersions for areas primarily west of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Although dry air will be advecting into the region, minimum RH values today will only drop into the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect much lower minimum RH values on Tuesday as dry air continues to push into the area. Minimum RH values on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid 20s; however, winds will be near calm as high pressure settles into the region. Although RH values will be low, there are no fire weather concerns at this time outside of high dispersions given the recent rainfall across the region the last week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9 has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Bainbridge gage expected to drop below flood stage later today. High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola River throughout this work week. Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding. Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend region, which would be more significant. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 38 63 41 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 69 40 62 46 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 64 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 34 60 38 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 37 61 40 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 72 39 64 40 / 60 0 0 0 Apalachicola 70 42 60 47 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ this afternoon through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ |
#1173077 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:32 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 327 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures for much of the work week with mainly dry weather except for a few rain/snow showers possible sometime Wednesday and/or Wednesday night. A period of unsettled weather is also possible sometime this weekend...but confidence is low at this time. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 320 AM Update... * Partly sunny & breezy today with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s An approaching shortwave has backed the upper level flow a bit early this morning. This has resulted in mid-high level cloudiness overspreading much of the region. There is even the risk for a brief sprinkle or two early this morning towards the southeast New England coast...but not worth inserting into the forecast at this time. We do expect this band of mid-high level cloudiness to push east of the region later this morning. This should result in skies becoming partly sunny...but colder temps aloft moving in from the west will allow a scattered to broken deck of CU to develop later today. 925T around 0C/+1C with good mixing on westerly flow aloft should allow for high temps to top off mainly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. So it will be cooler than what we saw over the weekend...but still a bit above normal for this time of year. Bufkit soundings indicate westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph by late morning/early afternoon with a few gusts up to 30 mph possible. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Points... * Dry/Seasonable tonight with lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s * Partly sunny/breezy Tue with highs mainly in the middle-upper 40s Details... Tonight... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will generate a seasonable westerly flow of air into southern New England. Although the winds will likely not decouple in most places given a modest WNW low level jet. Nonetheless...850T dropping to between -8C and -10C will result in overnight low temps mainly in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. Tuesday... Upper trough across the northeast will generate a cool west to northwest flow of air aloft again on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow along with the cold pool aloft should allow for a scattered to broken deck of diurnal CU to develop again...yielding partly sunny skies later in the day. Temperatures a few degrees colder aloft than today...so expect Tue highs mainly in the middle to upper 40s. Bufkit indicates westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights * A quick moving front/system slides through Wed/Wed Night bringing light showers. Temps warmer than normal. * Drier on Thu/Fri, but cooler and breezy. * Could turn unsettled this weekend, but lots of uncertainty on how things evolve. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night... Cyclonic flow in place through this period. A fast moving shortwave trough digs from the western/central Great Lakes early on Wed into the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. The shortwave lifts into the Gulf of Maine/northern New England Wed Night. A weak warm front lifts into/through southern New England Tue Night into Wed. The trailing cold front pushes through late Wed/Wed Night. Still a tricky forecast in how wet it will be across the region, especially earlier in the day. Due to this have generally stuck with the NBM as it is mostly reasonable, but did bump up our PoPs a bit as the stronger cold front slides through later on Wed into Wed Night. The mitigating factors through this period for precip is we are fairly dry with PWATs between 0.2-0.4 inches, which is between the 25th to avg for this time of year per SPC sounding climo for CHH. On top of this we are well mixed within the PBL per Bufkit soundings, which should help mix down some drier dew points. For now have kept more spotty showers before having better chances of precip later in the day. High temps in the 40s across the higher terrain to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. With the cold front and later in the day there is the better shot for more widespread showers. For most this will be rain, but the higher terrain has the potential for snow showers. There could even be a bit of accumulation. Not out of the question lower elevations see snow before things end. Right now there is discrepancy on how much QPF we can ring out in this dry airmass. Given the uncertainty stuck with the NBM. Best shot is across far northwestern MA for AOA 1 inch of snow over 24 hrs of mod to high (50-70+ percent chance) and even some low probs (10-30 percent) for 3+ inches per the GEFS/EPS guidance. The GEPS is essentially nil for the 3+ inch probs. Further east along the Route 2 corridor probs are low to mod (10-40 percent chance). Stay tuned for future updates. Anticipating it to be breezy on Wed, but especially Wed Night in wake of the cold front. Will have W to WNW flow with the LLJ increasing to 25-35 kts. Stuck with the NBM for now as its higher winds/gusts are reasonable given the cold air advection and LLJ in place. Thursday through Friday... Flow somewhat cyclonic during this timeframe. A ridge axis will be over the Low/Mid Mississippi River Valley early on Thu. This builds into the TN Valley by late Thu. The ridge axis builds into the Carolinas/Mid Atlantic on Fri, but flattens out a bit. High pressure begins to nudge in from the OH Valley/Great Lakes on Thu and just offshore of the Mid Atlantic on Fri. Dry and quiet weather expected through this period as high pressure nudges in. Anticipating gusty winds across southern New England on Thu. Will be fairly well mixed with WNW to NW flow under cold air advection and 925 hPa winds of 25-35 kts. Shouldn`t be terribly difficult to mix down given the environment. So should have gusts of 35-40 mph through much of the day. Given the well mixed boundary layer it won`t be tough to bring down -20 to -30 degree dew points near the top of the PBL. Due to this lowered dew points/RH values to the 15th percentile of guidance for now. Did bump up temps to the 75th percentile of guidance given the setup. Highs on Thu will be right around normal for this time of year in the 40s. Should still be a bit breezy on Fri, but the high will relax the pressure gradient as it builds closer to our region. Temperatures still right around seasonable levels. This Weekend... Considerable uncertainty for this upcoming weekend. A trough will be located somewhere over the Southeastern US late on Fri. This lifts northeastward toward our region on Sat and perhaps Sun depending on how things evolve. Lot of uncertainty in if a coastal system slides up our way. Given the spread in guidance have stuck with the NBM for now for this timeframe. Appears that it could be wet if the trough lifts up into our area. There are some indications that the trough cuts off to our south/southeast, which would keep us dry. At this point probs are moderate (30-70 percent) of 24 hr QPF on both days AOA 0.1 inches. There are low probs of (10-30 percent) of 1+ inch of QPF with the risk being highlighted over RI/SE MA. Can see the uncertainty quite clearly via the large spread in MSLP low pressure center tracks per the EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Temps still near to perhaps slightly cooler than seasonable. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...High Confidence. VFR. W winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots developing by late morning/early afternoon. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 knots. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Strong winds with local gusts up to 40 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today through Tuesday...High Confidence. Upper trough over the northeast will generate a continued cool WNW flow of air through Tuesday. Decent mixing should promote some 20 to 25 knot wind gusts at times...especially near shore during the afternoon hours. It is very borderline small craft conditions...but bulk of the time conditions will be below small craft criteria. Therefore...only opted SCA headlines for Tuesday across our southern waters. This is for marginal 5 foot seas and 20 to 25 knot wind gusts. Later shifts may need to consider additional marginal small craft headlines for Tuesday...but confidence not high enough to do that right now. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today and Tuesday... Minimum afternoon relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today and Tuesday. West to northwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with a few gusts up to 30 mph are anticipated by late morning/early afternoon on both days. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we opted to issue a SPS for CT and RI due to elevated fire weather concerns today and possibly again on Tuesday. Thursday... A cold front that will move through on Wednesday...will also set the stage for the potential of elevated fire weather concerns again on Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 40 percent are expected with WNW wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173076 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:28 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 320 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Models begin the short term by showing a rather long frontal boundary, with sfc analyses stretching the boundary from a trough/low complex off the coast of NJ, through central Florida, and continuing across the central GOMEX. Meanwhile, broad and expansive high pressure builds across much of the east half of the CONUS, gradually pushing the front further south and closer to SoFlo. Ensembles/local solutions show agreement in keeping the southern half of the peninsula in the warm sector ahead of the FROPA, with prevailing southwest winds and increasing warm moisture advection. The front itself will be rapidly decaying as it becomes further detached from its parent trough/low complex well to the NE. Thus, little to no impacts are anticipated tomorrow from this feature over SoFlo, with some isolated to scattered showers possible, mainly around the Lake region. The overall synoptic scenario may allow for an efficient daytime heating process, which could result in some of the hottest temperatures of the year. Highs could push into the low 90s in some areas. Model consensus show the front finally moving across and out of the peninsula by early Tuesday. Winds veer to the NW and then NE by Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the FROPA, with subsidence and stable air filtering into the area. Along with building high pressure, the forecast calls for benign weather conditions to establish on Tuesday with afternoon temperatures cooling down into the 70s && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Long range models keep generally good weather conditions across SoFlo Through much of the work week, with a huge high pressure cell dominating much of the east half of the CONUS and the GOMEX. The sfc ridge slowly pushes eastward and flattens by mid week, which will keep a generally easterly wind in place through early Friday. Conditions begin to change late Friday and into Saturday as a trough erodes the ridge and sends a frontal boundary into the Florida peninsula. Model consensus remains low regarding potential timing and location of this feature. However, it seems that this one will bring better chances of widespread showers and possible thunderstorm activity. The long range forecast will surely continue to be adjusted as new guidance becomes available. Afternoon highs are expected to remain near or cooler than normal, mainly in the mid-upper 70s through much of the period. Overnight lows should remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb, then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, particularly near/around PBI. && .MARINE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Winds shift to the southwest today ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers are possible this afternoon, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee. Winds and seas are expected to increase, especially over the Atlantic waters, with hazardous marine conditions developing by tonight and lasting through Tuesday. Conditions will gradually subside by mid week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 The risk for rip currents across the east coast beaches increase on Tuesday behind a cold front passage. The risk may remain elevated through the rest of the week as easterly flow returns. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 67 76 61 / 10 20 10 0 West Kendall 90 65 77 57 / 10 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 90 65 77 60 / 10 20 10 0 Homestead 89 66 77 61 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 65 74 61 / 10 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 90 65 76 60 / 10 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 88 62 71 57 / 30 20 0 0 Boca Raton 90 64 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Naples 83 62 76 56 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173075 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:15 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 302 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will push across the forecast area today with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front. U/L support will be lifting north of the region through the day, which will cause the areal coverage of showers/storms to decrease as the front pushes southeast across the region. Surface high pressure will build over west central and southwest Florida in the wake of the front tonight and Tuesday with much cooler drier air advecting across the region on gusty northwest winds. This will be a stark change going from temperatures running around 10 degrees above climatological normals the past several days to about 10 degrees below normal on Tuesday. High pressure will hold over the region Wednesday with temperatures recovering a few degrees, but remaining well below normal. On Thursday, the area of high pressure will shift east of the Florida peninsula with return east/southeast flow developing. This will allow temperatures and L/L moisture to recover. A southern stream disturbance will push across the Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Thursday night with an area of low pressure developing over the Gulf, and is expected to move across the Florida peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. GFS has been indicating a rather potent system the past several runs...and the ECMWF is now coming more in line with that solution. Evolution of this system will determine sensible weather late in the week...and can`t rule out the risk for a few strong/severe storms with the main threat currently appearing to be south of I-4...but that could obviously change. Locally heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches will also be possible, with the heaviest amounts likely from the Tampa area and south. Surface high pressure will build over the forecast area in the wake of this system during the weekend with clearing skies and mild temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Patchy fog early this morning may cause LCL MVFR VSBYs with the best chance over the interior and southwest Florida. LCL IFR CIGs will also be possible for a brief time around sunrise at all terminals. VFR CIGs expected the remainder of the day. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing this morning vcnty PIE/TPA/LAL/SRQ with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs and may impact terminals a few hours into the afternoon. A few showers possible this afternoon over southwest Florida mid/late afternoon with LCL MVFR CIGs/VSBYs. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 A cold front will push across the waters today with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Increasing winds and seas behind the front tonight with SCA conditions likely. Winds and seas will subside on Tuesday as high pressure builds over the waters and the gradient weakens. Winds and seas will build late in the week as an area of low pressure approaches/moves across the waters with SCA conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 No fire weather hazards today. Much drier air will advect over the region behind a cold front tonight and Tuesday, with minimum afternoon relative humidity values in the mid 20 percent range Tuesday afternoon across most of the forecast area. Minimum afternoon relative humidity values will drop below 35 percent across much of the region Wednesday afternoon as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 51 69 50 / 60 10 0 0 FMY 85 60 75 53 / 20 20 0 0 GIF 83 51 69 47 / 70 10 0 0 SRQ 82 53 73 50 / 50 20 0 0 BKV 79 44 69 40 / 70 10 0 0 SPG 78 54 67 55 / 50 20 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
#1173074 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 241 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push southeast of the area and off the coast this morning. A stronger cold front will cross the area this evening into Tuesday morning. An upper level disturbance moving along the front could produce a few showers over extreme southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina this evening into early Tuesday morning. Dry weather is then expected for Tuesday through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT Sunday... Cold front is only making slow SE progress so far this evening. Small chances for showers across far SE VA and NE NC later tonight along and just west of the cold front as some additional moisture advects northward. However, HREF probs generally 20-30% so will simply go with isolated or scattered showers late tonight in this region. Otherwise, will keep partly to mostly cloudy and dry for the reminder of the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... Behind the cold front it will be cooler on Monday with generally decreasing clouds. The main trough aloft currently over the upper Great Lakes will dig into the middle Atlantic on Monday night. Again, there may be just enough moisture for a isolated to scattered showers in SE VA/NE NC Monday night, but otherwise it will stay dry. Much colder though for Monday and especially Tuesday as 850mb temps drop to nearly -10c by Tuesday morning. Highs will be in the mid 50s to around 60 on Monday with low to mid 50s on Tuesday. Winds will turn to the NW tonight and then become a little gusty tomorrow with a few gusts up to 20 mph especially close to the coast. Perhaps gustier Mon night and especially Tuesday as the upper short wave aloft moves through. Would not be shocked to see gusts to 20-30 mph on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Sunday... The middle of the week generally looks quiet. Colder temps from Mon and Tuesday rebound quickly. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week (near normal) most likely ahead of a dry cold front which will move through Wed night. Highs will be well into the 60s for most areas on Wednesday. Behind this cold front, models quickly diverge on the southern stream system for the weekend. The 00z and 06z GFS are faster and further west, leading to rain moving into the area as early as Friday, with low pressure tracking right along the coast. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and the associated AIFS is slower and further east, with the best rainfall confined to the coast. Ensemble guidance shows those solutions and everything in between. In summary, the confidence in the rainfall chances for next weekend are lower than usual. There seems to be a model consensus of the best probability of precip being on Saturday and across east/SE VA and NE NE. Have opted to maintain chance pops across the entire region starting Friday night and maintaining those through Saturday night. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast for Sunday as well although the ECMWF solution would be quite wet for Sunday (even though the associated AIFS is dry). Guidance spread in guidance is quite large for the weekend owing to the uncertainty of the evolution of the weekend system. NBM consensus suggests highs to stay below normal from Thu-Sun, but the range is generally from the low/mid 50s-mid 60s so the temperature forecast for the weekend remains an uncertain one as well. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT Monday... VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from early this morning into early Tue morning. Any isolated showers over extrm SE VA/NE NC will exit off the coast by 09Z this morning, as a cold front will push SE of the area and well offshore by later this morning. Winds have or will become NW or N behind the frontal passage, and increasing to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt by mid morning as deep mixing sets up. Outlook...A few showers will be possible this evening into early Tue morning over SE VA/NE NC, but flight restrictions are not expected. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail from Tue through Thu. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EDT Sunday... Relatively quiet conditions over the waters this aftn w/ the area in between two cold fronts. Winds are from the W/WSW at ~10 kt, though efficient mixing over land areas is allowing some higher gusts (up to 20 kt) to spill into area rivers and near the land/water interface of the bay and ocean. Seas are 2-3 ft and waves 1 ft or less. Secondary cold front crosses the area this evening, turning the winds to the NNW or N. There is likely to be a relatively quick surge where winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Chesapeake Bay with higher gusts. Waves of 2-3 ft expected in the bay with seas remaining around 3 ft. While local wind probs are hovering just under 50% for 18 kt sustained winds in the bay, these events tend to overperform by a few knots. So, have raised SCAs from 6z-15z Mon for all of the bay zones. NW winds briefly subside to 10-15 kt Mon aftn before quickly increasing again Mon night in response to a reinforcing shot of CAA. Widespread SCAs are likely for all waters for this event through early Tue aftn with NW winds of 20-25 kt and gusts to ~30 kt. Seas also increase to 4-6 ft, perhaps to 7 ft out 20 nm. Will let the current event SCA expire tomorrow/Mon morning before any additional headlines are raised. From Tue aftn through Wed, generally sub-SCA conditions are expected, though cannot rule out some gusts to 20-25 kt Tue and Wed aftn in the rivers and overnight Tue in the bay in a SW wind regime. Another front drops S through the waters Wed night w/ another period of NNW winds (possibly approaching SCA criteria) through Thu. There is considerable uncertainty for next weekend as some sort of cyclogenesis occurs to our S. Given large spatial and temporal variability among the guidance, continue to utilize a blended approach which brings elevated winds/seas to the waters late Fri through next weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... The cold front which moved through overnight will allow much lower RH values of as low as 20-25 percent to spread into the region for today and again on Tue. Despite deep mixing today, NNW winds will only be around 10 mph with perhaps some gusts to 15 mph. Winds may actually become gustier tonight, as colder air filters into the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Gusts of 20-25 mph will be possible on Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ |
#1173073 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 244 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through this morning. Cool high pressure builds today through the middle of the week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 1030 PM Sunday...Conditions still dry across the area this evening as a prefrontal disturbance begins to enter the forecast area from the southwest. The 00z MHX sounding still showed plenty of dry air in the low levels and surface temperatures are in the low to mid 60s with dewpoints still in the low to mid 50s. Much of the returns on radar still falling as virga and may continue to do so for some time. Have cut back the PoPs this evening, still maintaining small chance values along the coast and offshore with slight chance to no PoPs inland and north. Any rain showers that do make it to the ground will have minimal QPF and thus minimal impact. The main cold front still sits back over the Greensboro area as of 2z. This will eventually make it across the state and shift winds from southwesterly to northwesterly with a few potential gusts to 20 kts as it does so. Lows in the lower 50s to mid 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 230 PM Sunday...Front will continue to push off the coast early Monday with high temps cooling back to the 50s and low 60s, highest along the Crystal Coast. A sea breeze could develop in the afternoon/evening Monday, resulting in N/NW flow inland and onshore flow behind the sea breeze extending as far inland as hwy 17. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Mon...Cool high pressure builds in through mid week. A dry front will move through Wednesday night. A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week into the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday...Upper troughing continues across the eastern CONUS as we move into the middle of the week with cool high pressure building into the area through Wednesday. A dry cold front is progged to push through the area Wednesday night and early Thursday with high pressure building back into the area Thursday. CAA continues through Tuesday with breezy W-NW winds and temps well below normal with highs in the 50s. Lows expected to be in the 30s Tuesday night which may bring patchy frost or a few hours of freezing temps away from the coast if decoupling occurs, which still does not look likely at this time. Near normal temps in the 60s return Wednesday, then several degrees cooler post frontal Thursday. Guidance seems to be trending a bit cooler Thursday night and Friday morning, and if inland areas are able to decouple patchy frost is possible. Friday through Monday...A strong low pressure system is expected to impact the area late week and this weekend, though there is still a bit of uncertainty due to lack of agreement and run to run consistency in longer range model guidance. Multiple impacts will be possible with this system, including: heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding (see coastal flooding below for more info). Specific impacts will depend on timing, track and strength of the low. Did feel confident enough to increase pops and winds slightly from the previous forecast. Will continue to fine tune specifics in the next few days. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 730 PM Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across the area and should remain so for much of the forecast period. The only exception could be some MVFR ceilings with shower activity that may come through with a front during the overnight hours. At this time, precipitation is expected to be minimal and most likely KOAJ or KEWN with lesser chances at the inland terminals. Winds will stay mostly below ten kts overnight with the occasional higher gust in the immediate vicinity of the front. Wind directions will remain southwesterly ahead of the front and then veering to northwesterly after the frontal passage. Expect any VFR cigs associated with the front to be in the neighborhood of 5 kft and scatter out by Monday afternoon. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Pred VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy W winds Tue and Wed, with gusts 15-25 kt each afternoon. Chances for sub-VFR will be increasing Friday with rain grad overspreading the area as low pressure system approaches. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 1030 PM Sunday...currently southwesterly winds continue at 5-10 kts with a few of the outer buoys gusting upwards of 20 kts with 2-4ft seas with the occasional 5 feet near the edges of our central waters marine zones. Winds expected to remain sub SCA but some gusts approaching 25kt possible near GStream. Showers spreading from SW to NE possible overnight ahead of the front after which, winds will become N-NWerly, peaking 15-20kt immediately behind the front but gradually decreasing through the morning Monday. Seas will remain 2-3 feet through the short term, with some 4-5 footers possible for the outer coastal zones near the Gulf Stream. LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... As of 245 AM Mon...Winds will slowly relax Tuesday with conditions progged to drop below SCA criteria by late morning and early afternoon. However, moderate to breezy WSW 15-25 kt winds will continue Tue into Wed, with potential for another period of SCA conditions Tue night into Wed. A dry front will move through the waters late Wed night and early Thursday morning, with gusty SW winds becoming N 15-20 kt. Flow will grad veer Thu night and Friday, becoming E 10-20 kt as low pressure begins to strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will grad build through the day Fri, with SCA conditions developing. Gale force winds possible this weekend as a strong low pressure is expected to impact the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... As of 245 AM Mon...Slightly elevated fire weather concerns expected through mid week with dry fuels, low RH values and breezy winds. Today - Min RH values 25-30% inland with winds 5-15 mph. Drier Tue with min RH values 20-25% inland and breezy W winds 10-15 with gusts to 20 mph. Wed - Min RH values 25-30% and WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 AM Mon...We continue to monitor the potential for a strong low pressure system to impact the area late week and into the weekend. Still a bit of uncertainty with respect to timing and the track of the low, but there will be potential for minor to locally moderate coastal flooding, both soundside and oceanside with localized ocean overwash, rough surf and minor erosion. Troublesome area on the northern end of Ocracoke Island may be impacted with ocean overwash on Hwy 12. Will continue to fine tune the forecast over the next few days. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX |
#1173072 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 211 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A disturbance will track over the area tonight. A cold front will move offshore early Monday morning. High pressure will then build over the area on Monday and prevail into Thursday. A storm system could impact the area late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Based of radar trends, lingering light rain should push over the Atlantic or north of the forecast area by 3 AM. The forecast update will feature much lower PoPs, decreasing into the single digits before sunrise. Temperatures are on pace to range from the low 50s inland to the upper 50s along the coast by daybreak Monday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Aloft, a large/high amplitude trough will sweep across the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast late Monday, before a more zonal flow prevails midweek between broad troughing across the Northeast and broad ridging across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. At the sfc, a cold front will be placed offshore Monday while high pressure centered across the Central United States slides south toward the Gulf of Mexico late Monday, then extends eastward across the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic midweek. Monday: Lingering moisture post fropa could lead to a few showers along coastal areas during the morning, while ample forcing approaches with the upper trough. However, expect precip to shift offshore by around noon as a dry westerly flow develops across the region along the southern edge of maximum forcing. Temps will be on a cooling trend, peaking in the mid 60s inland to lower 70s early day. Strong cold air advection is expected across the region overnight as the upper trough axis pivots offshore. Sfc temps will respond, dipping into the low-mid 30s inland to upper 30s/lower 40s near the coast late. Despite these colder temps, frost will not be a concern due to gusty winds associated with favorable low-lvl mixing into 35-40 kt low-lvl wind fields. A Freeze Watch is also not expected as potential coverage for freezing temps remains too small and the duration too short. However, gusty winds could approach 25- 35 mph across Lake Moultrie during overnight hours. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely be needed. Tuesday and Wednesday: Conditions will remain dry through midweek as a west-northwest downslope wind spreads across the local area along the eastern edge of high pressure sliding towards the northern Gulf of Mexico. Despite ample sfc heating under clear skies, temps will struggle to warm significantly Tuesday afternoon, only peaking in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Heading into Wednesday night, sfc winds begin to turn southwest as the high becomes more centered across the Gulf. This should offset radiational cooling, favoring overnight lows noticeably warmer than the previous night, generally in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland to mid-upper 40s near the coast. By Wednesday, sunny skies and a warmer southwest wind will likely support some airmass modification across the Southeast. High temps are expected to become noticeably warmer, generally peaking in the low-mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Quiet and dry weather is expected to persist into Thursday, then forecast uncertainty increases for the late week time period due to large spread between model solutions. The general pattern would indicate an upper wave passing across the Gulf coast states and through the Southeast, though the strength of this feature is in question. At the surface, an area of low pressure could pass over or just south of the area, before shifting north offshore and/or hugging the coast Friday into Saturday. This path would keep the local area on the cooler and less unstable side of the system, suggesting mainly scattered to numerous showers across land with the potential of some coastal impacts as the low traverses near the area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs: KSAV observed IFR ceilings. IR satellite and upstream observations to KSAV indicated patches of MVFR ceilings. The KSAV TAF will feature IFR ceilings with a TEMPO from 7-11Z for MVFR ceiling. AT KCHS/KJZI, KCLX detect light rain across the terminals, unlikely to limit visibility under VFR. A cold front is timed to sweep across the terminals just prior to sunrise, resulting in winds to shift from the NW by 11Z. This evening, the pressure gradient will increase with strong CAA. Northwest winds are forecast to strengthen early this evening, with gusts around 25 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northwest winds are expected Monday night at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Tonight: West to southwest winds will persist with speeds less than 15 kt and seas 1-3 ft. Monday through Friday: A cold front will be placed offshore Monday, setting up cold air advection across local waters for much of the day as a west wind occurs. Winds/seas will ramp up considerably Monday night as a high amplitude trough shifts offshore and cold air advection peaks. At least high-end Small Craft Advisory level winds are expected across all waters. Strong mixing profiles tapping into 40 kt low-lvl winds suggests west/northwest winds could gust to gale force for at least a few hours Monday night, especially beyond 10 nm from the coast. Given the trend, a Gale Watch has been issued for all coastal waters outside the CHS Harbor, where a Small Craft Advisory is in place Monday night. Frequent gusts around 35 kt are possible between 03-13Z for the Gale Watch, but highest winds are anticipated across offshore Georgia waters. Seas should also build to 3-5 ft across nearshore waters and 5-7 ft across offshore Georgia waters. Improvement is expected Tuesday as cold air advection begins to wane, but another surge is possible Tuesday night with conditions approaching Small Craft Advisory levels. A somewhat enhanced pressure gradient under a zonal flow type pattern could support elevated winds through late week, but conditions should remain just below Small Craft Advisory levels until early weekend, when a low pressure system potentially impacts the region. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330. Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for AMZ350-352-354-374. && $$ |
#1173070 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 148 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A pre-frontal trough will bring light showers overnight ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move through the area early Monday morning. Below average temperatures and breezy conditions are expected through Tuesday night. Warm and sunny weather returns during through the middle of the week. Rain chances return on Friday and Saturday as Gulf coast low pressure moves northeastward. && .UPDATE... Chances for measurable rainfall are dwindling tonight as dry air is winning. Lowered POPs over the next several hours, best chances now at the coast. Updated aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... One piece of a pre-frontal trough is moving through and what little activity there was with this feature has almost fully dissipated. The main mid level system to the southwest will move by later tonight and most guidance shows light showers mainly across southern areas in and around 0600 UTC. Yet another weak boundary will move across in the wake of this activity and hopefully provide enough wind and lower dewpoints to preclude low clouds and or fog. Sometimes the relative lull between the first front and main thrust of the cold air advection (expected tomorrow night) is troublesome. Lows tonight should once again drop to the middle 50s and highs Monday with the aforementioned subtle cold air advection in play reaching the middle to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cold front pushing offshore Monday night will bring cold air advection and breezy winds. Low level mixing and lingering cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures in the upper 30s. Frost appears unlikely due to winds within the well mixed nocturnal boundary layer. Vort max moving overhead may squeeze out a sprinkle across eastern NC prior to midnight and should keep cloud cover overhead through the early morning hours. Cool air will have a brief residency on Tuesday as mid level flow quickly turns zonal after sunrise. West winds during the afternoon will begin to advect warm air across southern NC and SC. Sunny skies and the cooler air mass will keep afternoon highs in the upper 50s. High pressure to the south will maintain light winds overnight, capping overnight lows around 40 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure over the Gulf Coast will produce sunny skies and clear nights through Thursday. Warm on Wednesday ahead of a dry cold front Wednesday night. Slightly cooler on Thursday as cooler air works its way into the FA by Friday. High pressure to the northeast on Friday and a Gulf Low to our south will lead to an unsettled weekend. Low pressure will ride northward along a coastal trough sometime on Friday. This will keep rain in the forecast through at least Saturday afternoon. Cluster analysis shows the main source of uncertainty will be timing of this system. Conditions could deteriorate as early as Friday with a faster and stronger coastal low. A weaker and slower storm would primarily impact the region Saturday and early Sunday. Regardless, ensembles seem to be fairly consistent that this storm will impact the area in some form or fashion. No severe weather concerns at the moment, but a slight shift of the surface low inland could produce some elevated instability in a dynamic environment. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR expected through the 06Z TAF period. Have VCSH in at coastal terminals for the next couple hours as the axis of rain shifts closer to the coast and then offshore. Occasional gusts 15-20kts are showing up at several obs stations ahead of the front which is still further inland so kept increased wind speeds through tonight. Winds will shift to out of the NW closer to daybreak as the front moves offshore with a gradual return to west winds through the day. Another surge will arrive towards the end of the period with stronger NW winds. Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the rest of the period. && .MARINE... Through Monday... A southwest flow a couple of knots either side of 15 will continue through the early morning hours. A weak boundary will move across at this time to shift the winds to offshore. With little to no cold air advection (push) behind this boundary winds will trend more toward ten knots than fifteen. The wave spectrum will be unimpressed with the winds and remain around 3 ft. Monday Night through Friday... High pressure and cold air advection on Monday night will create breezy conditions and deep mixing across the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect through midday Tuesday. Gusts up to Gale force are possible early Tuesday, mainly around sunrise south of Little River Inlet. Conditions improve rapidly on Tuesday as mid level flow becomes zonal and surface winds turn westerly. Another surge Tuesday evening could approach SCA criteria briefly. This surge may be brief enough to avoid an advisory. Quiet conditions expected on Wednesday and Thursday even behind a dry cold front Wednesday night. A developing coastal trough and approaching coastal low will likely bring another round of unsettled marine conditions beginning late Thursday night into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
#1173069 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 152 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 922 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Isolated showers and storms will remain possible overnight, especially in our eastern counties and the Gulf waters. Trimmed back pops through our northern and northwestern counties overnight as the rain chances will sag southward through the night. Going temperatures and dewpoints looked good with just cosmetic changes needed to reflect current trends. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Afternoon radar and visible satellite imagery showed a strong complex of storms currently south of Pensacola moving east just ahead of diffluent and elevated westerly upper level flow. This complex of storms, also known as an MCS, will continue to progress eastwards through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Diffluent flow aloft and modest instability has helped maintain these storms as they ride along a weak coastal boundary stretching from offshore Apalachicola to the northwest to the vicinity of the MCS. Instability prospects are not forecast to grow much through the the evening ahead of these storms, but given the broad deep-layer shear in place, a threat for isolated strong/severe storms will persist into the evening as the approach the coast by 5 to 6pm EDT (4 to 5pm CDT). Main concerns with these storms will be localized damaging winds, especially if they can maintain their current organization. A brief tornado is possible as well, especially if any storm can take advantage of the weak backing along the coastal boundary. With the boundary still remaining offshore, and low level dewpoints across Florida still struggling to warm, the severe threat should stay mostly confined to marine and coastal areas, but if stronger northward movement of the boundary should occur, it`s possible the isolated severe threat could approach areas along the I- 10 corridor this evening across the Florida Big Bend. The threat for severe storms wanes late tonight and into very early as the MCS moves through and the cold pool behind the MCS moves through. Lingering showers into the overnight hours and early morning hours is possible and then we`ll see the cold front move through on Monday. Breezy conditions will develop, especially in the afternoon, with high temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Monday afternoon, especially across southeast Alabama. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Upper troughing continues to exit off the US East Coast. In response, surface high pressure will build over the Gulf Coast states with northerly flow ushering dry, cold air into the forecast area. With high pressure overhead, cloud cover is expected to be quite minimal Monday night through Tuesday morning which could lead to some colder temperatures, particularly across our SE AL counties and portions of our SW GA counties where temperatures may drop below freezing. NBM probabilities still show a 50% chance of below freezing temperatures, and given the breezier winds that are expected, opted to maintain the freeze watch rather than upgrading to a freeze warning at this time as there still remains some uncertainty. Additionally, the elevated winds will ultimately squash frost concerns as well as relative humidity values not appearing too conducive for frost development. Regardless, temperatures will be cold across the area Monday night with temperatures in the 30s across the entire CWA outside of our easternmost FL Big Bend counties which may break into the low 40s. High temperatures on Tuesday will also be cooler than average with much of the area seeing temperatures in the low to mid 60s as the northerly surface flow continues. Surface winds will shift to westerly come Tuesday evening which will help our low temperatures areawide rebound slightly with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s expected areawide. Winds will also slightly die down in the overnight hours and we will see higher relative humidity values perhaps resulting in some patchy frost in our northernmost SE AL and SW GA counties. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Upper level ridging continues through Thursday evening with a slight warm up expected yielding daytime highs in the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will start off in the 40s, gradually warming back into the 50s by Friday. On Thursday, an upper trough will kick off cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico which will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. As of now, it appears that the surface low will stay south over our waters which would hinder the severe threat as the warm front will remain offshore. Accumulated rainfall totals have been decreasing as well with the southward shift across guidance with our area seeing around 0.25-0.5" as a result. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 MVFR to LIFR restrictions are currently being observed across all terminals tonight. These conditions look to improve through the remainder of the overnight hours, and into the morning hours. VFR conditions should return to all terminals by mid morning. Gusty northwest winds to around 20-25 knots will be present at all terminals during the afternoon hours, but are expected to relax by the evening hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A stationary front will continue gradually lifting north this evening as another round of unsettled weather approaches our waters with generally southeasterly flow expected. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last tonight through tomorrow morning with some stronger storms possible. Gusty and erratic winds, waterspouts, and small hail are possible in and near any strong to severe storm. Following this, a cold front will sweep over our waters resulting in due northerly flow tomorrow morning. With a tightening pressure gradient, small craft advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday morning with occasional gusts perhaps reaching gale-force. Additionally, seas are expected to build to around 6 to 8 feet. Come Wednesday, winds will lighten as high pressure builds in over the Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 High chances of a wetting rain this afternoon and evening will keep most fire weather concerns low through the early part of the week after the cold front moves through. However, there will be some small fire weather concerns on Monday with higher dispersions, especially across southeast Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle. Occasional wind gusts up to 15 or 20 mph are possible as well on Monday after the cold front front moves through. Drier conditions move in Tuesday, but winds will be less so dispersions are expected to be lower on Tuesday afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 348 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Rainfall has decreased with the system later in the week, though it appears about the same with the system moving into the area today with the heavier totals along the coast. A few localized heavy downpours remain possible, and the WPC has maintained their marginal risk (1/4) for the majority of the forecast area today. As of now, all rivers are falling except the Kinchafoonee which is only expected to reach action stage. Minor flooding continues along the Apalachicola, lower Flint, lower Choctawhatchee, and lower Chipola rivers. With the decreasing rainfall totals later in the week, there are no river concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 38 63 41 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 69 40 62 46 / 10 0 0 0 Dothan 64 34 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 34 60 38 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 37 61 40 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 72 39 64 40 / 60 0 0 0 Apalachicola 70 42 60 47 / 20 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-114. GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for GAZ120>124-142. AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for ALZ065>067. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772. && $$ |
#1173068 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 143 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Initial wave of showers and isolated thunderstorms has moved into the area this evening ahead of a wave of low pressure traveling east along a frontal boundary that stretches from near the mouth of the St mary`s river westward along the coast of the FL panhandle into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Showers are more organized over SE GA at this hour while coverage is more scattered over NE FL as a decaying MCS has been waning with eastward extent into the area. However, another round or two of showers is expected to redevelop from the NE Gulf into NE FL areas after midnight through the early morning hours with low stratus clouds developing along and just behind the front as the boundary slowly sinks to I-10 overnight and south of I-10 into the rest of NE FL by the morning hours. Lows will be above normal overnight with low to mid 60s over NE FL and upper 50s to near 60 degrees just north of the cold front over much of SE GA. Rain showers will continue to stretch across north central to portions of NE FL south of I-10 on Monday. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is still not out of the question over north central Fl, mainly Marion county southward where some elevated instability ahead of the southward moving front along with mid level lapse rates near 6.0-6.5 C/km and 40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear could combine for a more favorable storm to produce wind gusts 50 to 60 mph. Otherwise clouds will begin to clear from NW to SE in the afternoon and showers end just behind the cold front as it sinks south of the area by late afternoon with winds increasing from the northwest 10-15 mph. Highs Monday will be near 70 over inland SE GA to the mid 70s over NE FL and upper 70s over north central FL and the southern St Johns river basin. && .NEAR TERM...(through Tonight) Main period of weather will occur this evening and through the overnight hours as a wave of low pressure tracks northeastward from the GOMEX east-northeastward along the stationary front that will wobble back toward the I-10 corridor as said wave approaches. CAMs have been a bit wishy-washy in the intensity of the associated convection as it crosses NE FL this evening. However, the potential for strong and possibly marginally severe storms will exist, particularly for areas south of I-10 where HREF probs maintain about a 40-50% chance of at least 500 j/kg of SBCAPE through midnight. The main concern will be the threat of strong or locally damaging winds with stronger embedded t`storms as the wave tracks across. Behind the wave a trailing cold front will begin to push southeastward through SE GA late tonight. Enough convergence along the frontal edge will support a secondary round of showers and isolated storms through sunrise and likely most of the morning monday as it slowly sinks south. Overall, rain amounts aren`t expected to be significant, with accumulations expected to stay below an inch at any given location. Another warm, near-record day in terms of high temperatures will lead to another mild night as skies trend to overcast and the stationary boundary becomes situated essentially along I-10. Lows in SE GA (on the cool side) will be in the upper 50s while NE FL zones will read more so in the mid 60s. Though there could be some localized lowered visibility due to showers, the boundary layer will likely remain stirred up enough to limit any significant fog development. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday night) Moisture will continue to stream northeast along the frontal boundary, as it slowly moves off to the southeast Monday. The best energy moves off with the front, so will end thunderstorm mention with frontal line itself, while precipitation may trail its passage. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 60s inland SE GA, which will be on the northwest side of the front in the morning, to the mid 70s over north central FL where frontal passage will be later. A strong pressure gradient will set up behind the front for Monday night as high pressure builds from the northwest. With subsidence from the building high, it will be a dry night. With the subsidence and tightened gradient it will be a somewhat gusty night, especially at the coast. A surge of winds is expected to move south down the coastal waters overnight, which will lead to even higher winds along the coast. Beach front communities will likely experience wind gusts around 35 mph overnight Monday night, with gusts to around 25 mph more common inland. Temperatures will drop quickly Monday night, with about a 30 degree diurnal swing from highs on Monday. Lows in the mid 30s across SE GA will be common, to lower 40s over NE FL. The expected wind will provide enough mixing to keep frost from becoming an issue, but wind chills due to the wind and temperature will dip to at or below freezing for many inland locations. The gradient will slowly relax through the day Tuesday, as the high pressure ridge builds across the area. Tuesday will be a bright sunny day, but cooler than normal due to cold advection on north northwest flow. Highs Tuesday in the lower to mid 60s will be common, which is now about 10 degrees cooler than seasonal averages. High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, continuing the dry weather, and fair skies. Temperatures will begin a moderating trend, but still remain below normal. && .LONG TERM...(Thursday through next Sunday) The high pressure ridge will lift off to the northeast Thursday, making away for a low pressure system developing over the Gulf to affect the region. The low will track northeast across the Gulf Thursday night, with precipitation overspreading the region from southwest to northeast. The low center is then expecting to cross the area during the day on Friday. Depending on the strength of this wave, there is the potential for a few strong to severe storms, along with heavy rainfall Thursday night through Friday. The low pressure system is expected to lift northeast of the region in time for the weekend, with it currently looking like a dry weekend. Temperatures will trend near to a little below seasonal levels for this period. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 140 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 Scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two are expected early this morning in association with a cold frontal passage through the forecast area. This activity will bring a period of MVFR conditions early this morning. For now, kept VCTS out of the forecast and will monitor some activity coming in off the Gulf that may be bring a thunderstorm to near GNV and SGJ around 10z-14z. The convection will move off the coast late this morning and will also bring periods of low ceilings to MVFR and IFR through the early aftn. Even a low potential for LIFR cigs at GNV centered around 10z-13z, with lower chances for remaining TAF sites. Flight conditions improve later today, with SSI becoming VFR cigs by 17z-18z and rest of the sites near 18z-22z. Sfc winds southwest to west 5-10 kt, and will become west and northwest by 08z-13z, and then prevailing northwest winds by 14z-15z, increasing to about 10 kt. Winds will increase further after 00z as the pressure gradient tightens. && .MARINE... Tranquil maritime conditions this afternoon while a stalled frontal boundary extends across the waters. A wave of low pressure moving along the boundary this evening will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the waters before midnight. Behind the low pressure, a cold front will begin to sweep southeastward across the waters through Monday and be trailed by a strong surge of northwesterly winds. Small Craft Advisory conditions will overspread the waters Monday evening. Given the likelihood for frequent gale force gusts offshore Monday night, a Gale Watch has been issued. Winds will lighten and conditions improve Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the west shifts over the waters. High pressure will be the dominant weather feature until the next weather disturbance arrives Thursday night. Rip Currents: Low risk through Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... An elevated fire danger is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday due to dry conditions. A cold front will cross the region Tonight, providing chances for Thunderstorms. High pressure will build from the northwest Monday. This high will be the predominant weather feature over the area through Thursday. An area of low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf Thursday night into Friday, bringing another round of showers and storms. High pressure will then build for next weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 335 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 On the Altamaha River, moderate flooding is occurring at Baxley and is forecast at Charlotte and Everett City, with rest of river at minor flooding. Minor flooding is also forecast for Satilla River at Atkinson. Additional rainfall through the weekend will keep these rivers elevated into early to the middle of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 37 61 40 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 72 41 61 45 / 30 0 0 0 JAX 72 40 64 40 / 50 0 0 0 SGJ 75 43 61 44 / 70 0 0 0 GNV 74 40 65 40 / 60 0 0 0 OCF 77 42 65 40 / 70 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Gale Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for AMZ470- 472-474. && $$ |
#1173067 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:41 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Low-lvl flow over SFL is gradually veering more SWrly as high pressure over the western Atlantic loses its influence and a low/frontal system approaches from the west. However, at present that front still remains far enough upstream that warm and humid conditions continue to prevail. High temps this afternoon are expected to largely run in the upper 80s on the east coast, low 90s in the Interior, with the "coolest" readings likely being along the Gulf coast where highs will only reach the low to mid 80s due to the SWrly flow. Large scale ascent remains minimal, so PoPs remain only in the slight chance category with the highest PoPs focused over PB & Broward counties where isolated activity may be possible late this afternoon along the nearly-pinned sea breeze. The only forecast concern for the overnight period will be the potential for fog and low stratus over portions of SW Florida, the Interior, and the Gulf waters. Otherwise, a generally dry and mild night is expected with lows ranging from the upper 60s to the low 70s. On Monday the aforementioned front will continue to approach area, but we will likely reside in the warm prefrontal SWrly regime through more or less the entire day. Given 850mb temps around 17C (around the 95th percentile for mid March), SWrly flow, robust mixing, and limited cloud cover (once any AM stratus scatters out) some locations near the east coast could see their first 90 degree high of 2024 tomorrow. The prefrontal trough (and the cold front itself) have trended slower with today`s runs and therefore look to phase even less constructively with the weak mid-lvl wave passing to our north. Consequently lowered PoPs for Monday, with the best chances remaining over the northern third or so of the area in the mid-late afternoon timeframe as the prefrontal trough approaches. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 214 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 The cold front will fully cross South FL early on Tuesday and then beautiful weather is expected through Thursday as cool high pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures will be cooler than normal through Wednesday and then near normal on Thursday. Attention then turns to the next system which will cross the peninsula on Friday into Saturday. There is some timing and location differences between the global models, but ensemble means show the potential for some locally heavy rain across the region Friday into Friday evening. Too early to speculate on any severe threat, but that will come into better focus later this week once there is better model consensus. With the expected rain and cloud cover, afternoon highs will remain on the cool side through at least Saturday, although overnight lows will be mild in the 60s/70s the end of the week and into early this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 VFR Conditions generally prevail through the TAF cycle, though the exception is near/over APF and Gulf waters where low CIGs/VIS may be experienced until around 12-14Z. Winds generally light/vrb, then SW around 10 kt with a gradual NW transition through the day and into early tomorrow morning. ISLD SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, particularly near/around PBI. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Winds will begin to shift to the southwest by Monday ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday, particularly for the northern waters and Lake Okeechobee ahead of the front. As the frontal boundary passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday, winds will increase out of the north and seas will increase, particularly over the Atlantic waters. This will result in hazardous marine conditions likely developing across the local waters Monday night into Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1200 PM EDT Sun Mar 17 2024 The generally low rip current risk over the area beaches will maintain itself through Monday. The risk may then increase over the east coast beaches on Tuesday behind a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 67 76 60 / 10 20 10 0 West Kendall 90 65 77 58 / 10 20 10 0 Opa-Locka 90 65 77 59 / 10 20 10 0 Homestead 89 66 77 60 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 10 20 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 88 65 74 60 / 20 20 10 0 Pembroke Pines 90 65 76 59 / 10 20 10 0 West Palm Beach 88 62 71 57 / 30 20 0 0 Boca Raton 90 64 74 59 / 20 20 10 0 Naples 83 62 76 55 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
#1173066 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A Rex Block continues with an upper level ridge flowing over the Pacific Northwest States into a closed H500 mid-to-upper level low and trough centered over northern Arizona. Over the past week, this set up has remained in place as a trough over the Great Lakes has thwarted its movement. For the short term period, this set up will hold as the trough over the eastern U.S. deepens before moving out in the long term; a southwest flow aloft will continue over the RGV for the short term. At the surface, convergence associated with a stationary boundary passing through the region has the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening as the boundary continues progressing southward. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) includes the entire County Warning Area (CWA) under a general chance of thunderstorms for the rest of today, which lines up well with the numerous pulses of energy and unsettled pattern. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will minimize through the early morning hours and minimum temperatures will range from the upper 50s across the upper western portion of the CWA and low-to-mid 60s for the rest of the region with upper 60s for the lower RGV and southern coastal areas. As the overrunning pattern sets in the wake of the front, along with continued mid-level pulses of energy will aid in the potential for thunderstorms. The best chances remain over the Rio Grande Plains and less chances eastward. Day time highs will reach into the upper 60s for the northwestern half of the CWA and lower 70s for the remainder of the RGV. Tomorrow night, skies will remain cloudy but drier with Tuesday morning lows in the mid 50s and lower 60s for the lower RGV and coastal areas. As the high pressure surges into the region Monday, winds will increase from the northeast, especially closer to the coast. Portions of the lower Rio Grande Valley and along the coast could see wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. A High Surf Advisory and Coastal Flood Statement will likely be issued as strong winds and waves upwards of 6 feet are expected, leading to dangerous surf, elevated tides and coastal run-up. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 The blocking pattern that has been dominating the western two-thirds of the country is expected to break down during the long-term period as the upper low gets kicked east as a stronger upper trough moves into the Pacific NW. However, before the area see a clearing trend of multi-level clouds the eastward track of the of the upper low takes its time and not until Friday will we see a reduction in clouds and a lowering of general humidity levels. Although not a lot of rainfall is expected Tuesday through Thursday a southern stream mid-level trough (opening of the east moving closed low) induces a weak surface low over the SW Gulf Wednesday night/Thursday. Moisture pooling around this surface feature and weak frontogenesis helps provide sufficient lift producing our best chance for showers and possible thunderstorms. Do not see any extreme temperature anomalies but maximum temperatures start off 6-10 degrees below normal, or 64-72 degrees, Tuesday with extensive cloud cover and cool expansive surface ridge centered over Louisiana. Once the ridge shifts farther east and a bit more sun breaks through the cloud cover temperature trends go upwards with near to slightly above the mid March average highs of 80-84 and lows 58-64 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 LIFR conditions have settled into the BRO area and may not budge much this morning with light rain and reduced visibility. MVFR conditions are relatively close, and there may be periods of improvement. MFE is currently VFR, but expected to slip to MVFR like HRL in the next couple of hours. A stronger blast of northerly winds arrives by mid morning and continues into this evening as high pressure builds. Light rain and showers are possible through the afternoon across the RGV. There is a low confidence in thunderstorms at this time, but a couple of rumbles are possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Tonight through Monday night...Conditions will remain favorable to the start of the short term with light northeasterly winds and small chance of showers and thunderstorms. However, late tonight and early Monday morning, cold front arriving from the north and high pressure behind it will surge southward strong northeasterly winds and quickly build seas. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect for all coastal waters from 7 AM [CDT] till 1 AM [CDT] Tuesday. Tuesday through Sunday...Expansive surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday provides light to moderate east-southeast winds and subsiding seas. The approach of an upper level trough Thursday induces a weak low pressure area over the Western Gulf. Northerly winds briefly return to the lower Texas coast Thursday and Friday as the surface low and its associated frontal boundary lift northeast. Moderate northeast winds and seas along with some rain showers in line for Thursday with light veering east-southeast winds Friday and Saturday. Southerly winds to increase Sunday in advance of the next cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 61 70 64 73 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 58 70 59 74 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 59 70 61 76 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 67 59 75 / 10 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 67 64 70 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 69 61 73 / 0 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ |
#1173065 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1209 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 IFR to MVFR CIGs with MVFR to VFR VISBYs will improve overnight VFR area-wide into Monday morning behind the passage of a cold front this afternoon/evening. North winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through most of the forecast. /16 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ..New AVIATION... AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 IFR ceilings will continue overnight with a light north wind. Rain has moved out except for a few light showers along the Florida Panhandle. A cold front will sweep through early Monday morning helping clear out ceilings and returning conditions to VFR by noon. Winds will be gusty out of the north around 15 knots gusting to 20 knots. BB/03 && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ .New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Lingering rainfall, which is primarily spread over the eastern half of the region, will continue to push off to the east this evening as a southern stream upper trough exits our region. By tonight and into tomorrow, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes region digs into the southeast US. This will help to push a strong cold front through our region during the morning hours. Behind the front, a much cooler and drier airmass advects in from the north as strong high pressure builds into the region. Due to the timing of the front, lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 40s for interior counties generally west of I-65, to the low to mid 50s elsewhere. Highs tomorrow will only top out in the low to mid 60s, with upper 60s over the western Florida Panhandle. A moderate risk of rip currents tonight will drop to a low risk on Monday. /96 SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A large upper trof over the eastern states broadens while shifting off into the western Atlantic during the period, and meanwhile an upper low centered over Arizona breaks down to an open wave and advances into the south central states. A dome of surface high pressure builds into the northern Gulf coast area through Tuesday morning and promotes a light northerly flow over the forecast area. Very dry deep layer air will be in place over the region Monday night with lows ranging from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s at the coast. With the open radiative channel, light winds as well as run-to-run consistency, have opted to upgrade the Freeze Watch in effect for interior areas to a Freeze Warning with this package. The Freeze Warning is in effect for Wayne, Perry and Greene counties in Mississippi, and Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, Wilcox, Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia, Butler, Crenshaw and Covington counties in Alabama. Frost development is also likely Monday night as far south as Stone and George counties in Mississippi, interior Mobile and Baldwin counties Alabama, and a small portion of the western Florida panhandle, and a Frost Advisory could become necessary for these areas. While deep layer moisture does improve somewhat after Monday night, this will not be sufficient to support pops and have continued with a dry forecast through Wednesday night. A warming trend follows after Monday night, and highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s, then highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows Tuesday night mostly range from the mid/upper 30s inland to the mid 40s at the coast. Lows Wednesday night range from the lower 40s inland to around 50 at the coast. A low risk of rip currents is in effect through Wednesday night. /29 LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A well defined shortwave trof over Texas/Oklahoma advances across the northern Gulf coast states through Friday night. A surface low is expected to develop over the northwest Gulf Thursday morning then progress to the east central Gulf Friday morning before lifting off along the East Coast on Saturday. Precipitable water values increase to roughly around 1 inch on Thursday and to around 1.15 inches Thursday night. Progressively drier air then flows into the area Friday into Saturday. As the surface low/shortwave trof pass by the area, will have slight chance pops return to the western portion of the area Thursday afternoon, with chance pops Thursday night, then rain chances decrease Friday to dry conditions by Friday night. Instability is very limited and thunderstorm development is not expected. Dry conditions follow for Saturday and Sunday. /29 MARINE... Issued at 329 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A storm system continues to push across the marine zones this afternoon, bringing with it widespread showers and storms (some of which could contain strong winds and hail). Winds in its wake are turning northwesterly. A strong cold front sweeps across the marine zones late tonight into Monday, bringing a strong offshore flow to area waters for the beginning of the week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect starting Monday morning for Mobile Bay, the Mississippi Sound, and our local Gulf waters (starting Monday evening for remaining bays and sounds) and lasting through Tuesday morning. Winds briefly become light and variable and seas decrease during the middle part of the week. Moderate winds, generally out of the east returns for late week. /96 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ051>060. FL...None. MS...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ633>636. && $$ |
#1173064 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:23 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 112 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Clear and cool tonight with steady west winds. Mainly sunny and warm tomorrow with gusty west winds and elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures trending near to cooler than seasonable for much of the upcoming week. Isolated showers possible each day, especially Wednesday along with gusty winds. Dry by Friday then uncertainty increases for when wet weather may return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... 945 PM Update... * Generally dry tonight with variable clouds & lows in the 30s Previous forecast is on track. A subtle shortwave will result some increasing mid-high cloudiness overnight...especially in RI/SE MA where there is a subtle surface trough. Low risk of a few sprinkles/flurries too in this region...but not worth inserting into the forecast. Overnight low temps will bottom out mainly in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Key Points * Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Tomorrow * Gusty WNW Winds 20-30 mph Tomorrow: Upper level trough and associated cold pool aloft begins to move into the region. With a strong WNW pressure gradient and good boundary layer mixing up to 700mb, winds will become gusty again up to 20-30 mph. High temps tomorrow should top out in the low to mid 50s before colder air works in with the cold pool aloft. Dewpoints tomorrow will be dropping into the teens which will bring minRH values down below 30%. In collaboration with our fire weather partners, we have opted to issue a SPS due to elevated fire weather concerns for tomorrow afternoon in CT and RI. There is a low chance for isolated pop up rain/snow showers across western MA where the cold pool may be able to work in before the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise mainly dry tomorrow with diurnal cumulus in the afternoon again. Tomorrow night: The core of the 500mb cold pool works in overhead with temperatures of -35 aloft. Strong CAA along with clear skies and diminishing winds will allow for overnight temps to drop below freezing with mid to upper 20s across the high terrain in northern MA. Any showers that do form tomorrow afternoon will quickly come to an end with the loss of daytime heating. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Points... * Temperatures seasonable this week with highs in the 40s. * Spotty showers possible Tue and more widespread on Wednesday, possibly lingering into Thursday for some; not a washout. * Dry on Friday before another system may arrive next weekend but confidence is low. The forecast remains largely unchanged from what we`ve been looking at for the past few days, with the exception of continued uncertainty as to how/when the pattern may break down for unsettled weather next weekend. In the mean time we`ll be under the influence of broad cyclonic flow aloft with a series of shortwaves rotating through the base of the trough before brief ridging arrives for Friday. This means generally cool and cloudy weather for much of the week. The first of these disturbances moves overhead on Tuesday bringing increased cloudiness at least, given an anomalously cold airmass overhead. This, with diurnal heating will lead to low level lapse rates of 6-8C. This may be enough to overcome limited moisture in order to produce some spotty rain or even graupel showers; best shot is in the orographically favored high terrain of western MA. As the previous forecaster mentioned, though, temperatures will be cooler thanks to cold advection aloft and the well mixed boundary layer will lead to drying of the airmass on breezy west winds. Thus, dewpoints have been lowered into the teens and low 20s. Wednesday is the best shot of any particular location seeing a rain or snow shower as another shortwave and stronger surface low passes to our north, but meager moisture and dynamics will keep this from being a widespread precipitation event. One thing to note will be the ramping up of the winds in the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens with the passage of the low, gusting 20-30 mph in the afternoon. This is the start of the gusty winds, as Thursday will be the windiest day. BUFKIT soundings indicate a very well mixed boundary layer up to at least 850 mb where a 35-45kt LLJ resides, mixing down gusts as high as 35 to 45 mph Thursday morning. Winds will then decrease, but remain breezy all day. Friday will be the quietest day of the week with a dry forecast and little wind thanks to a transient high pressure. As for the weekend, we continue to track a potential storm system around Saturday or Sunday, but the GFS and ECMWF guidance remain in different camps as to the strength and track of the low. For now have stuck to ensemble guidance indicating increasing POPs starting Saturday. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High- greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update... Today...High Confidence. VFR. W winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots developing by late morning. Tonight...High Confidence. VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 knots. Tuesday...High Confidence. VFR. WNW 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots. KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance RA. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight... Decreasing westerly winds across the southern waters of 10 knots or less, while the northern waters could see continued gusts of 15-25 knots. Seas slowly diminish to 3-4 feet, with lingering 5 footers in the far outer waters. Tomorrow... Winds become gusty out of the west again at 15-25 knots. This results in increasing sea back to 4-5 feet esspically for the southern waters. Tomorrow night. Winds remain out the west, but continue to gust 10-20 knots. Seas diminish to 3-4 feet. Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/... Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain. Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain. Thursday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Monday and Tuesday... There are some fire weather concerns for Monday and Tuesday. We expect afternoon westerly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph with minimum relative humidity values between 20 to 30 percent Monday and 25 to 35 percent Tuesday. Would not be surprised if RH values ended up on the lower side of those numbers given very dry air aloft. In coordination with our fire weather partners, we opted to issue a SPS for CT and RI due to elevated fire weather concerns Monday and possibly again on Tuesday. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ |
#1173063 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1207 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A Boundary continues its southward march through our CWA and should move offshore by tonight. This boundary resulted in some overnight and morning convection where one cell over La Salle and McMullen split before becoming severe with a report received of Golf ball sized hail. Otherwise, it`s been mainly quiet today and that is generally expected with some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remaining possible again tonight through Monday. The probabilities across most of the area will be small with silent PoP`s except for the Rio Grande Plains where there`s a medium (35-50%) chance for convection through tomorrow morning/afternoon. Increased gradients after the boundary moves offshore will result in Strong to Very Strong northeasterly flow. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight through tomorrow and tomorrow night over the waters. Hazards: Strong thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight with hail as the main threat. Small Craft Advisory. Temperatures: Afternoon highs today will be near 80, with mid to upper 60s tomorrow. Overnight lows tonight will approach 60 degrees and tomorrow will be around the low to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Key Message: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday A mean upper trough is expected to persist over the Midwest/ northeastern CONUS Tuesday/Wednesday, while the cut-off low over the southwestern CONUS finally moves across the region Wednesday night/Thursday, per the GFS/ECMWF. In addition, the GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase to above normal over the CWA by Wednesday. Expect the combination of moisture, instability, and upper forcing to contribute to isolated to scattered convection Wednesday night and Thursday. As the upper disturbance moves east of the CWA, drying/subsidence expected Friday/Saturday, with near to below normal PWAT values. Increasing onshore flow/moisture expected Sunday, in advance of another upper disturbance approaching the southwestern CONUS. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 A mix of MVFR and VFR CIGs currently across S TX this evening are expected to become generally MVFR area wide overnight. CIGs are expected to improve to VFR by mid to late Monday morning. A surge of high pressure/frontal boundary, with slightly drier low levels and gusty northeast winds, is expected to push south across S TX between 08Z-12Z. NE winds will strengthen behind the boundary with gusts around 25 knots. Gusts to around 30 knots will be possible across the CRP TAF site due to proximity to the coast. As for rain chances, the highest chances (30-50%) are across the LRD and ALI areas overnight ahead of the boundary into Monday behind the boundary. There is a slight chance (10-20%) across the remainder of S TX. && .MARINE... Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Flow has veered to the northeast and is expected to increase to Strong or Very Strong in response to a boundary moving offshore. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight through tomorrow and into tomorrow night over the waters. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible offshore through tomorrow afternoon. Weak to moderate onshore flow expected Tuesday/Wednesday in advance of upper disturbance approaching TX from the west. This upper system is expected to contribute to isolated/scattered convection Wednesday night/Thursday. Drier conditions Friday/Saturday as the upper disturbance moves east of the region, followed by the return of onshore flow Sunday in advance of the next upper level disturbance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 61 69 55 66 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 58 68 48 62 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 59 64 56 66 / 40 50 0 0 Alice 59 69 53 65 / 10 20 0 0 Rockport 61 72 56 66 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 58 66 53 64 / 10 20 0 0 Kingsville 60 67 54 65 / 10 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 71 59 68 / 10 20 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231- 232-236-237. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ250-255. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275. && $$ |
#1173062 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 It may be hard to believe based off today`s rainy / stormy aesthetic, but the weather pattern is in flux, and it`s heading towards a much needed spell of drier and cooler weather. But first, we must get through a series of small disturbances aloft that are bringing ample lift to a southeast Texas atmosphere that is rich in moisture and sufficiently unstable. The resulting scattered showers / thunderstorms should continue through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Coverage has been most widespread across our southern counties thus far (as of 2:00 PM). But radar trends and mesoscale guidance indicate that our northern counties could very well deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms of their own. Meanwhile to our north, a 1037 MB high pressure system, centered over Alberta, is drifting southward into the northern and central plains. As this high continues its southward trek, colder and drier air will rush down the plains and into SE Texas. North to north-northeast winds are expected to increase overnight into tomorrow morning, and remain elevated through the day on Monday as the southward building high tightens the LL gradient. Much drier and cooler air will advect into the region tonight into tomorrow. Tonight`s lows are expected to range from around 50F in our northernmost counties to around 60F at the coast. The presence of lingering clouds coupled with CAA will likely prevent temperatures from rising much during the morning hours tomorrow. And even though the sun is expected to eventually bless us with its presence tomorrow, afternoon high temperatures will struggle to warm out of the 60s while dew points fall into 30s and 40s. The hoodie weather returns by Monday night, with lows ranging from around 40F in our northernmost counties to mid/upper 40s in Houston and low 50s at the coast. Self && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Fairly dry, cool wx on Tuesday with highs topping out in the 60s. As surface high pressure across the northern Gulf coast moves eastward, and some impulses in the mid/upper flow approach from the west, cloud cover should be on the increase as the day/evening progresses. Column probably won`t modify and become moist enough to support much in the way of rain chances until later in the day Wednesday...but probably moreso late Wednesday night and Thursday. This will be the time period where we`ll see the next upper trof moving closer to the area from the west and an associated coastal trof developing offshore. There`s still somewhat of a split in deterministic guidance regarding the finer details (timing/position of upper trof and overall strength/focusing of coastal trof). Regardless, Thursday is penciled in for having the next best shot of rain across the area. This system tracks off to the east Thursday night and should allow for drier conditions and seasonal temps leading into the weekend. 47 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Only MVFR decks at 04Z are in/around LBX and GLS. Current thinking has these decks breaking up while another building/thickening deck around 3500-4000 feet (in/around the ACT area) tries to build in from the NW. So generally going with VFR/BKN040 and increasing N to NNE winds overnight. Any ceilings that do develop are expected to begin breaking up around 10-14Z as drier air works into the area from the N, then just anticipating gusty N winds and some high clouds for the rest of the day. Much weaker N winds will prevail 00Z-12Z on the 19th (Monday night-Tuesday morning) as high pressure builds into the area. 42 && .MARINE... Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Scattered showers will linger overnight, but the threat of severe storms is relatively low...and dwindling as time progresses. Winds and seas will be on an upward climb tonight in the wake of a passing cold front. Have posted a Small Craft Advisory for all waters beginning at 1 am. A few gusts to near gale are possible in the offshore Gulf waters early Monday morning. Winds/seas remain elevated into Monday night. Improving marine conditions are anticipated Tuesday as winds weaken and shift to the east, then to the southeast on Wednesday. Some unsettled weather is forecast for Thursday in response to a developing coastal trough along with the approach of an upper level storm system. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 54 64 42 64 / 50 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 56 68 45 67 / 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 59 66 53 62 / 50 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
#1173061 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 18.Mar.2024) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 This morning`s activity has moved off to the east of the forecast area this afternoon. There remains a few isolated to scattered showers generally south of the I10 corridor across southeast Louisiana. This area is where we could see a few more isolated showers and a rumble of thunder or two through the early evening hours before a cold front moves through the region. Think the overall severe weather and hydro threat has decreased, but we are still watching another area of showers and storms across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, which again would be a source for more showers and storms across the far southern Louisiana Coast. As stated a cold front will move through the region late tonight with an increase in CAA taking place. Eventually, POPs will drop off and temperatures will fall into the 40s across southwest Mississippi and the lower and middle 50s elsewhere tonight. With lingering cloudiness, we will not drop as efficiently, but certainly a noticeable shift in temperatures tonight as compared to the last couple. Clouds begin to decrease Monday with a continuation of a northeasterly flow. Temperatures will again be cooler with most locations only warming into the lower the middle 60s. The warmest locations will likely be along the immediate coast such as Grand Isle, Shell Beach, and the immediate MS Gulf Coastal areas. Breezy conditions conditions will likely continue on Monday with humidity values dropping off into the lower 30 percent range, especially for southwest Mississippi. However, with the recent rain or antecedent conditions, think the overall fire weather threat should be mitigated a good bit. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday night) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Late Monday night sees us with an H5 pattern of a trough axis from New England through the OH valley and down to the central Gulf coast, a closed low over southern CA/Baja/SW AZ, and quasi- barotropic flow across northern Mexico/south TX/northern GOM. At the surface, we are on the southeast side of a high pressure dome. The significant weather associated with this pattern on Tuesday night is cold temperatures from the northeast flow down the backside of the trough and the influence of the surface high pressure. The southwest MS counties and the adjacent LA parishes have been placed under a Freeze watch from 3am to 8am Tuesday morning. Chances shown in the NBM are in the 30-70% range for low temps at or below 32. Temperatures further south in the area will be influenced by the southern barotropic flow, so slightly warmer and no chance for seeing freezing temps. As the week progresses, the surface high pressure dominates the area so we should see clear to mostly sunny skies and high temps in the low 60s. The next system moves through Thursday into early Friday with 40ish percent chances of rain and around a half inch of rain, give or take. By the weekend, the long-term models are diverging in their outlook, but do agree on a mostly clear weekend with high temps in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s...which is great, considering we`ll be several days into spring by then! /Schlotz/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Most local terminals have transitioned to MVFR...and should remain within MVFR ranges through the early to mid morning hours on Monday. Northerly winds will also begin to increase and remain breezy through the day. That said, clouds will decrease Monday morning leading to VFR conditions areawide by mid to late morning. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 There will remain the possibility of showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder out there this afternoon and early evening hours before the front moves through later tonight and early Monday. As the front continues to move through, high pressure will begin to spread into the region. Before it arrives, northerly or northeasterly winds will increase to SCA thresholds, which should linger through the day Monday and into early Tuesday before conditions improve. As high pressure remains over the region through midweek, expect favorable marine conditions. Some increase in winds and seas will be possible late in the week, but at this juncture both should remain mostly below cautionary headline conditions. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 66 46 61 32 / 100 10 0 0 BTR 73 53 66 38 / 100 10 0 0 ASD 71 53 68 36 / 100 30 0 0 MSY 72 56 66 43 / 100 20 0 0 GPT 71 53 66 37 / 90 30 0 0 PQL 73 52 69 34 / 90 40 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for LAZ035>037-039-071. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for MSZ068>071. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |