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| #1253296 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 637 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday for the Atlantic beaches. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday before drier conditions return for mid week. - Areas of fog possible early this morning over inland portions of South FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Latest probabilistic guidance shows an increasing likelihood for patchy to areas of dense fog, especially over inland portions of South FL. Given the clearing skies, light winds, and precip yesterday, the increase in probs seems reasonable. Increased the coverage of patchy fog to include much of South FL outside of the immediate metro, and included areas of fog over inland portions of SW FL. Will monitor observations and area web cams closely this morning to see if any headlines will be needed. Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary across northern FL with a couple of weak lows along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf. Locally, moderate easterly flow will continue again today, with the latest HREF showing PWAT values continuing to slowly increase today with values of 1.6-1.8 inches by late in the day. Most of the hi-res guidance continues to struggle with precip for today, so going with more of a persistence forecast today with scattered showers throughout the day. While chances will remain for the entire east coast metro, the best signals for persistent coastal convergence showers will be over Palm Beach and northern Broward counties. QPF is another struggle today, but wouldn`t be surprised to see pockets of 0.5-1 inch amounts, while the vast majority of the area will be a quarter inch or less. High temps this afternoon will range from the low to middle 80s. As the complex system shifts to the SE US late tonight into early Tuesday morning, our low level flow will become SSE tonight and eventually SSW during the day on Tuesday. Some widely scattered coastal showers are possible overnight into the early morning hours, with mild lows ranging from the upper 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. With the SSW flow in place on Tuesday, the humidity really ramps up with dewpoints surging into the low to middle 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches. As the frontal boundary starts to approach our area from the NW, plenty of instability will be in place for showers and occasional thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The cold front will cross the area on Wednesday before settling south of the area across the FL Straits. Little moisture will be left by the time the front gets here, so rainfall chances will be fairly low. The front will however bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the region for the remainder of the work-week, with temperatures returning to near normal. As the low level flow turns southerly next weekend, moisture begins to increase the slight chances of rain will return to the forecast. Temps next weekend will also return to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible early this morning due to patchy fog. Light easterly winds this morning increase to around 10kts after 15Z, with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered showers possible across the east coast terminals throughout the day. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions remain possible early this morning due to patchy fog. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Cautionary easterly winds expected across the local waters today before turning southerly on Tuesday. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the Atlantic waters Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Moderate easterly flow today will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The high risk will remain through Tuesday before conditions improve mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 73 84 69 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 84 70 85 66 / 10 0 20 10 Opa-Locka 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 83 72 84 68 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 72 84 68 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 85 69 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Boca Raton 83 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Naples 85 69 82 67 / 10 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253295 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 644 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing scattered light showers across the area - Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones. Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20 degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later this after/evening as a low to our south moves north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week. The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+ along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur. There`s potential for some supercells to develop, especially along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability, deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado and/or waterspout. Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast, leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s. PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there`s potential for a brief window of a rain/snow mix. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 640 AM Monday...Light rain slowly pushing offshore as cold front moves through the region, with drier northerly winds ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we have generally MVFR ceilings along OBX and the immediate Crystal Coast with VFR for inland locales. Ceilings and visibilities rapidly rise for areas currently in MVFR as dry air filters into ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR conditions between 11-13z. This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near 20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR from south to north. Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR conditions and low level wind shear concerns likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again. && .MARINE... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon - Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track along the coast - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will build to 4-6 ft by early this afternoon, and subside to 3-5 ft by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building back to 5-6 ft across this same area. Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras. High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 640 AM Monday...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue. A High Surf Advisory has been issued Tuesday 10AM to 10 PM as breaking waves of 6-10 ft could cause hazardous surf conditions and localized beach erosion between Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1253294 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold, wet and rainy day is expected. Let`s be on the lookout for some heavy downpours at times...moreso between the I-10 corridor and the coast. Ground is wet from Saturday nights rainfall, and any localized pockets of heavy rain will be more prone to runoff and cause some minor street and feeder road flooding. - Hazardous marine conditions anticipated into Tuesday. - Drier, fair weather is anticipated Tue-Wed, followed by another chance of rain Wed night into Thurs in association with another coastal low and incoming cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Cold temperatures expected tonight...however, overcast skies will keep it from being the coldest night of the week...those nights are up next! Lows for tonight into Monday morning will be in the 40s for much of the area, with a few locations along the coast touching into the low 50s. For Monday, 500mb showing a series of vort maximums traversing SE Texas during the day, with a shortwave at the 700mb level, and onshore flow at the 850mb level continuing to funnel in Gulf moisture. Along with isentropic lifting, this setup will factor into the potential for showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow. Showers will start out light overnight. Coverage of showers will increase during the day tomorrow with the approach of the shortwave from the west. Rain is anticipated to move offshore later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a reinforcing front brings in a cooler and drier airmass. Temperature wise Monday into Tuesday...consensus among my shift partner and I is that model guidance is coming in a bit too warm for this setup. Opted for a blend of previous forecast, CONSShort, and NBM10. Probabilistically speaking, HREF and NBM had a low (23-30%) chance of areas south of I-10 surpassing the 55F mark tomorrow (areas close to I-10 and north were at a 0% probability). With cloudy skies and rain expected for tomorrow, I would not be surprised if temperatures turned out to be even a few degrees cooler than what is forecast. Tuesday may be a bit more true to the story with skies expected to clear out significantly and sun able to contribute to the daytime highs. Monday night and Tuesday night will be pretty brisk with temperatures dropping into the low 30s to low 40s. The chance for freezing temperatures increases further north across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Onshore winds resume Tuesday night and begin another round of warming for the area...and as observed for the last couple of weeks, the return of onshore flow will set the stage for yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the week. Will refrain from getting too hung up on details with it being later in the period, but in any case, looking like another wet weekend for at least the coastal areas. Bailey && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Poor flying conditions are expected today as rainfall develops across the region. Heavy downpours are a possibility at times from the metro area to the coast which could cause some reduced visibility. Low end MVFR ceilings early this morning will likely drop into IFR territory by mid morning with increasing rain coverage. Cannot rule out LIFR at times near pockets of heavier downpours (esp Hobby, Angleton, Galveston). Rain tapers off early-mid evening followed by lifting ceilings from NW to SE. Would anticipate most terminals be back to VFR by 9z or so. Mclr skies anticipated Tue. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Gusty north to northeast are in place over the coastal waters following yesterday`s frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Another upper level disturbance will move through overnight and Monday bringing another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning as moderate to strong northeasterly winds develop behind this exiting system. At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water advisory. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 46 36 52 38 / 50 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 49 39 54 41 / 90 50 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 47 55 53 / 90 70 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this afternoon for GMZ350-355. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375. && $$ |
| #1253293 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 625 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Patchy fog developing early this morning, particularly over the interior where it may become locally dense at times. - Low chances for showers continue today. By Tuesday, a few lightning storms are possible as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front. - Boating conditions will deteriorate tonight into Tuesday ahead of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Primary concern for today is whether any patchy fog, locally dense at times, develops early this morning - primarily across the interior. A weak front will settle across the Deep South to include north FL, where it will become quasi- stationary. Light onshore (NE/ENE) flow 5-10 mph continues through the day. Low pressure will develop across the northwest Gulf during the day and begin to move northeastward tonight. This will act to push a cold front into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning. PWATs tonight will pool to 1.60-1.70 inches areawide ahead the approaching boundary. Onshore low-level flow may be enough to occasionally allow for a few showers to push onto the coast this morning, especially Treasure Coast with some of this activity possibly moving into the interior this afternoon. Chances are relatively low at ISOLD to WDLY SCT (20-30pct) and suspect most areas will remain dry. 925 mb winds become southerly later tonight increasing to 20-25 kts by midnight, then 25-30 kts by sunrise Tue morning. Surface winds will be light ESE/SE this evening, continuing to veer more southerly ahead of daybreak increasing to around 10 mph. Warm maxes (above climo) today in the U70s to L80s. Overnight lows continue mild and in the M-U60s areawide. Tue-Tue Night...Low pressure continues to race off northeastward up the Atlc Seaboard, thus pushing the aforementioned cold frontal boundary into/thru central FL during the evening/overnight period. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated lightning storms in play will increase in coverage/intensity during the day; initially across the I-4 corridor during the morning and afternoon - points further south mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Primary storm impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong winds, and brief downpours. Instability remains only marginal. Activity will be moving SW to NE at a decent clip of 30 to 40 mph. Convection shifts offshore during the evening/overnight. As the pressure gradient increases early in the period, even outside of gusty showers or storms, we will see breezy SW/WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Highs several degrees above normal in the L-M80s (pre-frontal) on this day. Behind the front overnight lows will sink into the L-M50s north/west of I-4 with near 60F to L60s southward. Barrier islands likely to realize M60s for mins. Wed-Sun...Mid-level high pressure remains flattened across the FL Straits and Bahamas thru the extended resulting in nearly zonal flow across the FL peninsula for much of this period. At the surface, high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. thru mid- late week, with the next low pressure system developing across the northern Gulf and dragging our next cold front through the area possibly Sat night (ECMWF) or if the GFS has its way - stalling north of central FL until Sun/Sun night before pushing it through. For the moment we keep conditions dry Wed-Fri, with the NBM trying to moisten us up enough to add PoPs back into the forecast during the day on Sat and keeping a small PoP in the forecast thru Sun night. Uncertainty remains with medium range models, but do believe highest PoP chances will surround the next front`s approach/passage sometime this next weekend. Closer to seasonal highs on Wed (post-frontal) with maxes in the L70s across I-4, with M-U70s southward. A warming trend begins slowly on Thu with highs again in the M-U70s, except L70s for coastal Volusia with the developing onshore flow. U70s to L80s prevail Fri-Sat (perhaps a few M80s south of Orlando on Sat), and depending on the next front`s passage will see maxes shunted by a few to several degrees as early as Sun and/or Mon. For mins, a chilly night Wed night/Thu morning in the U40s to around 50F N/W of I-4 with L-M50s most everywhere else, except U50s and a few L60s for coastal south Brevard and E of I-95 along the Treasure Coast. For Thu overnight, 50s and L60s (coast), and generally 60s areawide Fri/Sat nights, and potentially 50s for Sun/Mon nights. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Today-Tonight...Seas remain near 5-6 ft at buoy 41009 and it will be a judgement call if Cautionary Statements are extended offshore with early morning coastal waters forecast issuance. NE-ENE winds developing today around 10 kts. With approach of the next weather system and strengthening wind field, we will see winds begin to veer ESE/SE this evening and overnight becoming southerly by daybreak Tue morning. Speeds tonight will increase 10-15 kts very near shore and 15-20 kts over the open Atlc, but will increase further well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet to 18-23 kts by daybreak Tue. As such, we should initiate Cautionary Statements for increasing winds this evening offshore, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to go into effect at 09Z/4AM Tue morning for offshore marine legs north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3-5 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (perhaps up to 6 ft still early this morning). After midnight and toward daybreak Tue morning, seas respond to the increasing winds by building 5-6 ft (again) offshore Vero Beach northward. Isolated to scattered showers forecast and cannot rule out isolated lightning storms. Tue-Fri...For now the SCA goes thru 03Z/10PM Tue evening offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. SSW/SW winds around 20-25 kts for the Advisory and 15/15-20 kts elsewhere gradually relax later Tue afternoon/evening, as winds continue to veer WSW by early evening Tue, then NWRLY (post-frontal) Tue night continuing into Wed-Wed night as the pgrad continues to relax and winds diminish further. Direction becomes more northerly early on Thu, but quickly veers NE/E during the day on Thu-Thu night, finally SE/S into Fri. Seas come down 3-5 ft Tue night, becoming 3-4 ft by Wed afternoon thru Fri, but may see some 5 ft seas well offshore Volusia on Thu. Pre-frontal on Tue, we will see highest precip chances with offshore moving showers/isolated lightning storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms have the potential to be gusty with occasional lightning strikes and torrential downpours the other threats. This continues into early evening, then gradually winds down across the Gulf Stream overnight as the cold front weakens and pushes through. Wed-Fri, presently, remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 625 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 VFR conditions early this morning with light and variable winds. Winds pick up out of the ENE after 15Z at 5 to 10 knots. VCSH possible from MLB southward. Wind are then forecast to veer to out of the SE overnight, becoming SW tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Rain and storm chances increase tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 66 81 56 / 10 10 40 0 MCO 80 67 81 60 / 20 10 50 0 MLB 78 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 0 VRB 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 30 0 LEE 79 65 79 55 / 10 20 60 0 SFB 79 66 81 58 / 10 10 50 0 ORL 79 66 81 59 / 20 10 50 0 FPR 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 40 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570- 572. && $$ |
| #1253292 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 626 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will pass through the region late today into Tuesday. High pressure then returns for the middle to end of this week ahead of the next frontal system that could impact the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... During the pre-dawn hours, the cold front will surge southward across GA and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the forecast area, remaining centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. By this afternoon, an H5 shortwave will ripple over the Southern Plains with a 150 kts H25 jet crossing the Arklatex. Sfc low pressure should gradually organize near the Mississippi Delta along the cold front. The developing low should support strengthening south H85 winds over the sfc ridge across the Southeast U.S. this afternoon through tonight. This afternoon, deepening isentropic lift and moisture should support thick cloud cover across the forecast area. Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions combined with northeast sfc winds should keep high temperatures limited to the upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s along the coast and extreme SE GA. Coniditons through the daylight hours should remain dry. However, isolated showers may cross extreme SE GA late this afternoon. Tonight, high resolution guidance indicates that H85 winds will strengthen overnight, reaching 60 kts across much of the CWA by 12Z. The sfc ridge should remain across the forecast area tonight, until the sfc low tracks NE along the coast by day break. Models indicate strong forcing develop along and ahead of the sfc low. The deepening forcing along with PW values in excess of 1.5 inches should result in widespread rainfall after midnight. Rainfall rates will likely become moderate during the pre-dawn hours, thunderstorms possible near the coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 40s inland to the low to mid 50s across the coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a jet streak will start to splinter over the Ohio River Valley with an area of low pressure beginning to move northeast across southeast Georgia. Simultaneously, an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes responsible for the northeast winds today, will slowly move east while widespread rain falls into the CAD. This precipitation falling into the CAD will act to reinforce the northeast winds and keep Tuesday morning rather cold and wet. However, the key question is when will the CAD weaken and by how much. Three subtle but important scenarios are possible with this system: Scenario 1 (~50% chance): The CAD is slightly stronger and the area of low pressure rides northeast along a stalled boundary across inland GA and SC. Peak rainfall amounts of 1" - 2" from a Candler GA to Hampton SC to Berkeley SC county line. Scenario 2 and 3 (50% chance): The CAD collapses more quickly/ weaker with the peak rainfall axis being in the Midlands or even approaching the Upstate of SC. Either scenario has the peak rainfall amounts avoiding the urban area of Savannah and Charleston. Hourly Rainfall Rates: Latest run of the HREF shows the most likely rates to be around .10"/ hour with some rates nearing 0.25" an hour. Probabilities of rainfall amounts exceeding 1" in 6 hrs are less than 20%. Timing: Sprinkles will start 8 PM Monday to 12 AM Tuesday with peak precipitation rates between 3 AM and 2 PM Tuesday. Precipitation will then end from west to east 4 PM - 8 PM Tuesday as a cold front crosses GA and SC. Wednesday and Thursday: Surface high pressure will move east over the Ohio River Valley with no precipitation expected. Winds initially Wednesday morning will be out of the northwest, with a reinforcing cold front then crossing the zones from the northeast. Expect temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A return of multiple rounds of precipitation looks possible for next weekend as a long wave trough axis centers across the central United States. Some guidance is showing a more amplified pattern (~65%) while a mix of GEFS/ GEPS/ EPS members how a less amplified pattern (~35%). The more amplified pattern allows multiple rounds of shortwaves to traverse the region along with multiple rounds of precipitation. The less amplified pattern, keeps most of the rainfall further south and east of the region. At this point, precipitation for Friday into Saturday at times appears likely (>60%) with temperatures slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 12Z TAFs, a cold front was pushing off the GA/SC coast. In the wake of the front, winds will shift from the northeast and ceilings should remain VFR. During the morning hours, a sfc ridge will build across the terminals as low pressure organizes near the Mississippi Delta. Isentropic lift and moisture should increase from the south after mid-morning. KSAV is timed to see MVFR ceilings by 17Z, then reaching KJZI and KCHS by 21Z. HREF indicates that the leading edge of a shield of rain will reach KSAV between 3-6Z. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR with the arrival of the rain. Rain may reach KCHS and KJZI shortly after 6Z Tuesday. Forecast soundings show the llvl jet strengthening through the overnight hours. Each terminal is forecast to experience LLVL wind shear late tonight, beginning at KSAV by 6Z and KCHS and KJZI by 10Z. Extended Aviation Outlook: Tuesday: A storm system will bring higher probabilities (50-80%) of flight restrictions tonight into Tuesday, with both low ceilings and lowered vsbys possible in addition to rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Low level wind shear also appears likely (>60% chance) at all terminals Tuesday morning. Wednesday through Friday: VFR through Friday morning. Late Friday, cloud bases will begin to lower ahead of the next storm system. && .MARINE... During the pre-dawn hours, the cold front will surge southward across GA and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the forecast area, remaining centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. This pattern will support gusty northeast winds across the marine zones today, gusts reaching into the low 20 kts. This evening, low pressure is expected to approach from the west, resulting in winds veering from the south. South winds should continue to strengthen through the rest of the night, with gusts reaching 25 kts or more across the outer GA and Charleston County nearshore waters during the pre-dawn hours. Wave heights will increase late tonight, with 6 ft seas developing with the SC nearshore and outer GA waters during the pre-dawn hours. The wind and sea conditions will be highlighted with Small Craft Advisories. Tuesday: A surface low will approach the region from the southwest. Northeast winds from the CAD will slowly weaken and turn from the southeast then southwest by the morning hours. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt appear likely as cooler shelf waters limit mixing. Expect seas 5 to 8 ft. As such, a small craft advisory has been issued for the offshore Georgia waters and nearshore SC waters for Tuesday morning and evening. A cold front will then cross the waters Tuesday evening with seas slowly falling 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday through Friday: Northwest winds veering from the north Wednesday morning 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. No precipitation is expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Chances for minor coastal flooding return with the Tuesday early morning high tide, along the Charleston and Colleton county coast. Astronomical tides will then continue to rise with the morning high tide cycle through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed, primarily for the Charleston Harbor tide (Charleston and coastal Colleton counties). && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. && $$ |
| #1253291 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 530 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A surface low will approach the area today from the southwest, spreading light to moderate rain across the area. Best timing will be from late morning through around daybreak Tuesday. Area averaged rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5" can be expected, but could see a band of locally greater rainfall totals of 1.5-2+" for NW or central areas. - Much colder air filters into the region following this system, providing another freeze for areas along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning. - This active pattern continues going into Thursday and Friday, with another system expected to deliver rain to the area. More details on this system will become clearer over the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Plenty to discuss tonight as we`ve entered a temporary lull between two systems. The first one earlier today produced light showers for a few areas, dissipating towards the east leaving only drizzle behind and since, has turned fully dry across the entire area. Meanwhile, CAA has built into the region following a frontal passage introducing noticeably cooler air to the area. Had to play a little catchup with temperatures earlier as CAA overwhelmed the diurnal curvature late afternoon into the evening, revealing a slight reduction and has since lowered MinT`s towards Monday morning towards the cooler side of guidance (blend of 75th and 50th, deterministic was above the 75th) to follow this trend. Monday starts out cool and cloudy for all areas, while we shift our focus to the southwest at our next system. A subtle impulse crossing the Mexican plateau, coupled with an approaching positive tilt shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies will support downstream divergence and eventual low-genisis in the western Gulf, riding this low northeast over the remnant frontal boundary during the day on Monday into Monday night. Quite the overall dynamic meteorological setup with a broad low passing generally over out coastal/marine areas, with plenty going on in the meteorological realm. Greatest/strongest 300k isentropic lift/ascent will remain confined near the low and to the east, supporting increasing shower activity spreading inland over coastal MS/AL, meanwhile, overrunning deeper curl-back of H6-H7 isentropic ascent combined with dynamic ascent will support an elevated shield of stratiform precipitation to the northwest. As mentioned for a few days now, the synoptic support for a deformation band to form remains possible somewhere from Lafayette to Hattiesburg, as the RRFS-A continues to depict and now, to a slightly lesser extent, recent HRRR runs. Going through the HREF suite shows a diverse number of solutions representing different banding intensities (NAM Nest and HRW NSSL being the most prominent along with the RRFS-A, with the recent HRRR and ARW/FV3 mix being a bit more "watered down" - no pun intended). Regardless, the more extreme members depict a very noticeable higher QPF corridor, somewhere in the 2-3" range in the corridor mentioned earlier, with more widespread 0.5-1.5" elsewhere. I`m not seeing any distinctly concerning impacts related to this potential band, as rainfall intensities in an elevated stratiform shield should be relatively moderate and over a longer duration, at best. Probably slow enough to allow the ground to soak up some of this water, which we need. We`ll monitor if this band is more intense and is slow in any eastward progression (resulting in training), where flooding could occur but for now, concur with the area- wide marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Additional notes include seeing some 100-200j/KG MUCAPE across the region, could have a rumble of thunder or two but kept the best probabilities/mention of thunder confined closer to the steepest/strongest isentropic ascent near and to the east of the low`s track. Might also get a few strong to locally severe storms in the warm sector or closest to the lift associated with the low. Also, highs during the day on Monday were nudged down due to widespread cloud cover and light stratiform showers building into the region during the morning/afternoon, probably starting as virga as we`ve got quite the dry layer aloft between H7-H5 per the 00Z KLIX RAOB. All rain departs early Tuesday morning to around daybreak Tuesday, becoming lighter with time and CAA/NW winds build into the region. Skies clear out as we get into the late morning/afternoon but still overall chilly with highs primarily in the 50`s with a breezy NW wind. That`ll bring us to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the bulk of the continental polar airmass settles into the region supported by a surface high over the northern Gulf. Clear skies and calm winds will support maximized radiational cooling to bring a cold night for all areas. Guidance coming in pretty warm, above the 75th percentile and did add in a nudge down below the 75th, this brings below freezing temperatures along and north of the I-10/12 corridor, where Freeze Warnings will likely be in effect. Not reaching the Southshore yet with upper 30`s to low 40`s. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 High pressure builds east of the region during the day on Wednesday, producing a steady E to SE sfc return flow back to the area. The next system is ready to take shape over the southern US/western Gulf in a similar setup to what we`ll see today - a positive tilt trough diving into the central/southern Rockies and a secondary upper-level low over Baja ejecting energy NE across the Mexican Plateau. Build WAA and dynamic ascent in the region will support yet another round of showers Thursday into Friday. Still have some questions on specifics, but will wait for as we get closer but it is looking likely we`ll see another soaker Thursday and Friday. We try to see a brief dry period getting into Saturday, but it looks short-lived as long-range guidance hints at a pretty active quasi-zontal H5 pattern over the US, providing quick-hitting systems to continue. Something to monitor. KLG && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A low pressure system and stationary front over the area will keep IFR ceilings in place through tomorrow morning. Ceilings will generally range between 500 and 800 feet. As the low strengthens later today, an area of light to moderate rain will form over all of the terminals. The rain will be heaviest generally from the late afternoon through the early overnight hours, or generally between 21z and 08z. The rain will reduce visiblities to 2 to 3 miles for several hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Changes since last update: Added Small Craft Advisory for GMZ575 and 577 in effect through noon Monday. Exercise caution for all waters expect MS sound and Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas from Noon Monday through 9PM Monday night. New: Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters 9PM Monday through 3PM Tuesday. Tonight, a recent frontal passage has introduced gusty wind at around 18-22kts from the NE, which will persist overnight into Monday morning ahead of the next developing surface low over the western Gulf. As this low drifts northeast, it`ll cross gulf waters providing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms primarily from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. In any one storm, waterspouts, winds <34kts and locally higher waves/seas can be expected. As this low passes, confidence on how strong winds will remain outside of thunderstorms remains in question. There is now exercise caution headlines as the low passes, but could be upgraded to advisory if conditions warrant. Then, as the low passes early Tuesday to the NE, strong NW winds will increase across waters at around 15-20kts, with the 2nd round of Advisory headlines in effect. Waves/seas will respond reaching around 5-7ft in this time frame mainly for Gulf waters, 3-5ft for protected waters. High pressure builds into the region mid-week, with winds and waves/seas calming down, but still expecting another system to impact the region Thursday and Friday, with increasing winds and shower/thunderstorm activity expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 53 37 49 27 / 90 100 10 0 BTR 59 39 52 29 / 90 100 10 0 ASD 64 42 55 26 / 70 100 10 0 MSY 64 47 56 40 / 70 100 10 0 GPT 64 46 57 32 / 60 100 10 0 PQL 64 46 58 27 / 60 100 20 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1253290 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:33 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the western Florida Panhandle if a warm front is able to shift onshore late tonight through early Tuesday morning. - Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters mainly from late tonight into Tuesday. - A high rip current risk is in effect for the Northwest Florida Panhandle beaches today and for all coastal beaches of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle tonight into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 A positively tilted upper trof extending from the 4 Corners region to the northern Plains takes on a meridional orientation before progressing across the eastern states late Monday night into Tuesday evening. An associated surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then move across the western Florida panhandle Tuesday night (between 03-09Z) before continuing well away from the area. The trajectory of the surface low indicated by the latest guidance tempers the potential for any meaningful instability to be able to lift into the western Florida panhandle. Will continue to monitor, but at this point the potential for strong storms looks low. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Monday, categorical pops for Monday night, then slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday. Another positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region on Wednesday. The upper trof splits with much of the upper trof ejecting off across the northeastern states Wednesday night into Thursday night. The remainder of the upper trof is joined by a Canadian system to form an upper trof extending from the central states into the Baja area by Thursday night. There`s uncertainty with how quickly this upper trof advances eastward and also the potential for the upper trof to weaken substantially. It appears that another surface low looks to take a trajectory similar to what transpired earlier in the week and move across the forecast area roughly on Friday. There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this plays out and will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Thursday with likely to categorical pops for Friday. Mainly chance pops follow for Saturday, then Sunday looks to be mainly dry except for small pops near the coast. Highs will be near seasonable values on Monday, and Friday through Sunday, and about 5-10 degrees below seasonable values for Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows trend to well below seasonable values by Tuesday night to range from the mid/upper 20s well inland to the lower/mid 30s at the coast. Lows trend to a bit above seasonable values by Thursday night with near seasonable values expected for Saturday night. A moderate risk is expected today for the Alabama beaches with a high risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A high risk of rip currents follows for all beach areas for Monday night into Tuesday, then a moderate risk is expected Tuesday night. A low rip current risk continues for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 IFR to LIFR ceilings will remain across the region today into tonight. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall is expected to overspread the area as we head into late afternoon and the evening hours, lingering through the overnight. A few thunderstorms are possible nearer the coast, with a couple strong to severe storms not out of the question across the Florida Panhandle overnight tonight. Winds will remain out of the east to northeast around 5 knots today into this evening, with 5 to 10 knots near the coast. Winds shift out of the southeast across the Florida Panhandle tonight as a warm front attempts to lift onshore. A surface low tracks near the coast tonight with a cold front progressing across the entire area through early Tuesday morning, turning winds out of the north in its wake at 5 to 10 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds gradually become southeasterly by Monday evening, then switch to the northwest Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution overnight into early Monday morning for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended for the 20-60 nm portion through Monday afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters from 9 pm Monday evening into 3 pm Tuesday afternoon. Timing for the Small Craft Advisory may need to be refined on subsequent shifts depending on how quickly the flow increases/subsides. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night then becomes more easterly by Thursday. An onshore flow develops Thursday night then switches to the northwest on Friday as another cold front moves through. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 65 47 57 31 / 50 100 20 0 Pensacola 68 54 62 36 / 60 90 20 0 Destin 68 57 66 38 / 60 90 40 0 Evergreen 64 46 57 28 / 50 100 20 0 Waynesboro 57 38 49 26 / 50 100 20 0 Camden 59 39 51 26 / 50 100 20 0 Crestview 65 51 63 30 / 60 100 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1253289 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight through early Tuesday morning for portions of the Florida panhandle, mainly near the coast. A tornado or two is possible in this area along with gusty winds. - Beneficial rain is expected from late today through Tuesday. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western and northern portions of the area where 1-2 inches are expected. A few small pockets that see thunderstorms will likely receive over 2 inches. - Marine winds will increase today and tonight with hazardous conditions for small craft. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rainfall over 1 inch late in the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Low pressure will move through the area with a warm front lifting northward ahead of it today and tonight, followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Widespread rain is expected across the area, gradually increasing in coverage through the day and becoming most widespread tonight into Tuesday. This rain is badly needed with the ongoing drought across the region, but a few strong to severe storms could also occur along the Florida panhandle coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Shear will be plentiful with the lifting warm front and approaching cold front, but the main limiting factor will be the amount of instability that can make it inland. The current thinking is that enough instability will make it just inland for a low but non-zero risk of severe weather near the panhandle coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Given the amount of shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in addition to gusty winds. Elsewhere, rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder will decrease from west to east through the day on Tuesday as the system exits the area during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 A dry day is expected on Wednesday behind the departing system. Beyond Wednesday, broad upper level troughing will dig west of the area with a series of upper level disturbances moving across the southeast states. Rain chances are expected to return for the end of the week into the weekend, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the period. A warm front will develop and sharpen just offshore in the Gulf today. To its north, light rain will overspread the terminals during the course of the afternoon, and ceilings will gradually lower. By this evening into tonight, low level wind shear will become a concern as strong low level winds develop above the surface. Rain is expected to increase in intensity overnight with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 High pressure to the north of the waters and a frontal boundary stalled to the south will continue fresh easterly breezes today mainly west of Apalachicola to the Okaloosa/ Walton County line, where small craft operators are advised to exercise caution. Low pressure northwest of the waters will lift the aforementioned frontal boundary northward as a warm front tonight with winds becoming southerly, then clocking around to northwesterly as the low moves away from the waters. Winds are expected to increase to over 20 knots west of Apalachicola tonight where a small craft advisory is in effect. Tranquil boating conditions are expected to return by Wednesday and continue into Thursday. The approach of the next storm system will increase winds Friday into Saturday with a 50% chance of advisory-level conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 A wetting rain is expected tonight into Tuesday. This should keep fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon. The only concern for today is for pockets of low dispersions due to low mixing heights. A drier airmass will briefly return for Wednesday and Thursday before another medium chance of wetting rain for Friday into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly late today into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and adjacent southwest Georgia with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. Localized areas of higher amounts over 2 inches due to thunderstorms are also expected. This will be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. Brisk onshore flow from tonight into Tuesday will lead to increasing water levels along the Apalachee Bay coast. Given we`re on the descending end of the astronomical tide cycle (between the new and full moon) and winds are already clocking around to offshore prior to the higher of the mixed semidiurnal tides Tue afternoon, we`re not expecting coastal flooding attm. Looking ahead, another system may impact the region at the end of the week into the weekend with a 30-50% chance of an additional 1 inch or greater. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 62 71 38 / 40 90 70 0 Panama City 70 61 71 38 / 60 90 50 0 Dothan 64 56 63 33 / 50 100 50 0 Albany 64 56 65 32 / 40 90 70 0 Valdosta 70 59 71 36 / 40 80 90 0 Cross City 77 62 76 41 / 20 50 80 0 Apalachicola 70 64 73 41 / 40 80 60 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1253288 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 504 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 458 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Light showers through this morning, lull in rain chances before returning Wednesday night through Friday - Below normal temperatures through Tuesday, another cold front Thursday - Near freezing wind chill values early Tuesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A surface low over the northwest Gulf and mid-level PVA will allow for a medium to high chance for light showers or drizzle across South Texas this morning, before rain chances diminish this afternoon as the system moves east. The lull in rain chances will continue through Wednesday before ramping up again ahead of our next cold front expected Thursday. Low to medium rain chances will continue through Thursday night before dropping to low behind the front. This is the season of cold front one after the other, models are already in good agreement with a front early next week as well. Other than Tuesday behind the reinforcing surge of high pressure bringing in drier air, skies will remain mostly cloudy to completely overcast. Below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, highs today will be limited to the 50s with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 30s north and to the mid 40s along the coast. The reinforcing surge of high pressure late tonight into Tuesday morning will cause near freezing wind chills. Just a tad warmer highs on Tuesday with less cloud coverage and lows in the 40s Tuesday night. Brief return of onshore flow Wednesday to Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front will warm temperatures to near normal with highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A 1.5-2.0 kft CIGs have kept much of South Texas under MVFR conditions. This will continue through much of the TAF cycle but CIGS rising into VFR territory from north to south after 06Z. Rain chances are greatest from KALI and terminals to the east with a drier afternoon. Winds will be primarily out of the north at 5-10 kts through 06Z, then increasing to 10-15 kts thereafter. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Fresh to strong north to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning, before dropping below advisory criteria of 20 knots Monday afternoon and early evening. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through later tonight, leading to advisory level winds with a strong northerly breeze (BF 6) through midday Tuesday. Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze returns Tuesday night through early Thursday morning before our next cold front during the day Thursday, leading to moderate to fresh northerly flow heading into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% through this week with below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Medium to high chances for showers this morning will diminish through the afternoon. A brief lull in rain chances following through Tuesday night after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday as another cold front pushes through Thursday. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 53 42 58 47 / 60 10 0 0 Victoria 50 37 57 39 / 80 20 0 0 Laredo 59 45 62 50 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 53 41 59 44 / 50 10 0 0 Rockport 55 44 60 51 / 80 20 0 0 Cotulla 56 40 61 45 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 54 42 59 46 / 50 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 56 47 60 55 / 70 20 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1253287 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:03 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 556 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the area today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 550 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Dry, mostly sunny, and cool today. A secondary cold front has pushed through the area this morning, bringing an end to rain in NE NC and rapidly clearing skies. Temperatures continue to drop at this hour due to cold advection, generally ranging through the 30s (upper 40s far SE). Early morning lows likely will be a few degrees cooler than current 6 AM readings. Sunny/mostly sunny today as high pressure settles to our N. High temperatures should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday. - Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation. A stronger system remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough tonight. Widespread precip then moves in early Tuesday morning as favorable dynamics overspread the region and moisture overruns an initially cooler airmass. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb, with PWATs also increasing to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of the system and dry antecedent conditions. Still continue to monitor for any wintry wx at precip onset, as temps will initially be near or just below freezing. There is now a decent consensus among the short-term models regarding a period of sleet and freezing rain across far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. The wet bulb effect (from the initial dry air) may also act to (briefly) counteract mid-level WAA and keep temps from warming, and this effect is seen on forecast soundings after 4 AM or so. Expect no snow accumulation, but a very light sleet accumulation could occur with the initial leading edge, before transitioning to freezing rain or rain. The main impact would be any ice accretion, with the current forecast showing a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accumulation. Given the morning commute timing and HREF probs for >0.01" of ice accretion greater than 50% across western Louisa and Fluvanna counties, have went with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two zones. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM Tuesday morning as any p-type issues diminish with the transition to plain rain areawide. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing ow. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast. High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s coast). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front. - Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range. Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM. Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 555 AM EST Monday... VFR should prevail through most of today, with rapidly improving flying conditions across the entire area this morning behind a secondary cold front. SKC prevails through the first part of the day before mid-high clouds increase this afternoon and especially tonight ahead of a low pressure system. Rain moves in after 06z Tue from SW to NE and flight conditions are expected to quickly degrade to MVFR and then IFR by ~12z Tue. N winds of 5-10 kt inland and 10-15 kt near the coast (gusts to 20 kt) continue behind the front through this morning. Winds trend down this afternoon and evening and turn to the E/NE. Outlook: Widespread rain continues from Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Flight restrictions likely continue through most of the day. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EST Monday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. - Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories are likely, with low-end gales possible. A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening, before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to 10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S. Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst 01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft. High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence remains low at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-654. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1253286 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:54 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 549 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Monday brings the return to drier, colder and blustery weather. Low pressure tracking south of New England brings accumulating snow to interior portions of CT and MA Tuesday and Tuesday night, with rain most likely in the lower elevations. Beyond that high pressure brings dry weather to end the week except for a moisture starved front Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message... * Dry and seasonable with breezy winds. High pressure crosses overhead Monday so subsidence beneath the high will keep skies clear and dry while gusty NW winds will persist for the first half of the day. Winds diminish through the afternoon as the center of the high moves directly overhead and the pressure gradient drops. This will lead to a decoupled boundary layer and calm winds overnight which would lend to some radiational cooling early before cloudcover increases as the high moves offshore. Lows dip into the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Coastal system Tuesday morning and night brings plowable snow to higher elevations of southern New England. Winter Storm Watch issued for the central and western regions of Massachusetts. A mid level shortwave over the Great Plains on Monday then moves into the eastern U.S. Tuesday. As it digs into the southeast it induces a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast that lifts up along the New England coast Tuesday into Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement at this point that the low tracks along or just inside the 70/40 benchmark. However, there are several factors that point to this being a largely high elevation snow/low elevation rain storm. First, this is a progressive system with no high pressure over Quebec to block its exit and keep sub-freezing air locked in at the surface. As such, warm advection kicks in quickly on southerly LLJ; so while we start off below freezing in the low levels temps will quickly warm above freezing outside of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. This is especially true along the south coast as SSTs remain in the 50s. Even if precip starts as snow initially, accumulation is unlikely, or, worst case would likely be some coatings on grassy surfaces. The timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn`t bode well for snow chances in the low elevations. In these early season cases "positive snow depth change" products are often more representative in the numerical guidance. This setup featuring an open wave at 750 mb until downstream of SNE isn`t typically a good indicator of a big snow storm. Where we do see snow, snow ratios in the guidance have trended down over the last 24-48 hours and model soundings indicate max omega/lift misses the DGZ so excessively heavy snowfall rates aren`t expected. The trend with this forecast update was to lower the snowfall totals based on the factors discussed above. Regardless, there is a lot of moisture available (PWATs over 1.25" over the Cape and islands) and strong forcing for ascent; we previously mentioned the strong LLJ, and we`ll also benefit from a coupled upper jet streak (SNE placed between the RRQ of an exiting jet and a LFQ of another). This will lead to rainfall totals of over an inch in southeast MA by the time precip comes to an end early Wednesday morning. While colder temps pulled in on the backside may produce a flip to snow briefly on the tail end, QPF will be tapering off and not expecting appreciable accumulations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * A few snow showers possible the second half of Thursday with the passage of an Arctic cold front, otherwise dry weather Wednesday through Friday. Turning unsettled by next weekend. * Temperatures are trending well-below-average Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. An Arctic cold front Thursday night to bring the coldest air of the season, highs struggling to get above freezing by Friday afternoon. Wednesday through Sunday is quiet and cold. 500mb pattern becomes somewhat zonal across much of the CONUS with surface high pressure builds in behind the departing coastal low on Wednesday. Then an Arctic cold frontal passage late in the day Thursday. Moisture is limited, PWATS less than 0.6" should be enough for snow showers with the frontal passage. With the Arctic cold front, 925mb temperatures fall to -20C to -15C Thursday night, temperatures lower into the single digits to low teens. But, a gusty northwest wind makes it feel much colder, wind chills are below 0F across the higher terrain and well into the single digits for the coastal plain. Towards the end of the extended, guidance shows a more active pattern, leading to unsettled conditions come next weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z update... Today...High Confidence. VFR. NW gusts to 25 kt, diminishing late afternoon. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light to calm wind. Tuesday...Moderate Confidence. SN for BDL/BAF/ORH and rain for other terminals arrives 12-18z. VFR lowers to IFR by 18Z. Lower confidence in whether BOS/BED/PVD may see some SN...more than likely RA or some non- accumulating SN. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday...High confidence. W winds become NW through the day today with gusts 25-30 kt continuing. SCA for all waters. Winds quickly diminish through Mon afternoon as high pres builds in from the west. Light winds Mon evening becoming S-SE toward daybreak. Rough seas over southern waters will begin to subside during Mon and fall below 5 ft by Mon evening. Periods of rain ending tonight from W to E. Dry with good vsbys Mon and Mon night. Tuesday rain overspreads the waters and SSE winds early increase and turn out of the east then northeast late as a low pressure system crosses the southern waters. This leads to gusts as strong as 25-30 kts by late Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Widespread fog. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230- 232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236. && $$ |
| #1253285 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 540 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 512 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 * This afternoon, the most active weather expected in southwest Puerto Rico this afternoon. * Trade wind showers each night and morning across eastern and northern PR and the USVI. Showers and isolated thunderstorms each afternoon, increasing the flooding risk to limited from Tuesday through Thursday. * The chance of thunderstorms will increase today through mid- week, with the highest potential Tuesday, especially for eastern PR and the USVI as a surface trough moves in from the east. * A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents are expected through the work week across the north exposed beaches of Puerto Rico and USVI. && .Short Term(Today through Wednesday)... Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 East-northeast trade winds brought passing showers across exposed coastal areas of the U.S. Virgin Islands and northern and eastern Puerto Rico, with a few reaching inland and leaving around half an inch of rain in isolated spots of northeastern Puerto Rico. Winds were influenced by the land breeze but still tended to come from the east-northeast at 5 to 10 mph, while many inland locations remained light or calm. Overnight temperatures dropped into the low 60s in the higher elevations, with upper 70s across the lower elevations. Today, strong winds aloft will provide just enough lift to help clouds grow and allow a few heavier showers to form. A shortwave trough moving in from the west will add a little more support later in the day. At the surface, winds will continue to weaken and turn from ENE to NE as a surface trough approaches from the east. Moisture will stay close to normal but will remain uneven across the area. Passing trade-wind showers will continue this morning across northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but they will become less frequent through the day. As the day progresses, showers will form over land, mainly downwind from the mountains and where the sea breeze is strongest. This includes areas west-southwest of the islands and the Sierra de Luquillo, with the most active weather expected in southwest Puerto Rico. One or two isolated thunderstorms may form, but overall activity will stay limited. Hazard summary for today: a limited lightning risk and a low to no flooding risk, even if a thunderstorm develops. Tonight, winds will continue to weaken as a surface trough moves in from the east and the shortwave trough aloft gets closer. This will make the environment slightly more favorable for thunderstorms, though most activity should stay offshore. A few trade-wind showers may still reach northern and eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, but they will be less frequent due to the lighter winds. On Tuesday, the shortwave trough will move over the area, bringing the coolest air aloft along with added instability and very weak steering flow from the surface trough. These conditions make Tuesday the most favorable day for thunderstorms, even if they remain limited in coverage. Slow-moving showers or storms could bring heavy rain, causing ponding of water or minor urban flooding. Tuesday night, a few storms may linger or develop offshore under the influence of the trough. By Wednesday, the trough will move away and a mid-level ridge will build in, bringing warmer and drier air aloft and a more stable pattern. Thunderstorm chances will drop sharply, leaving only a small chance of one or two isolated afternoon showers or storms. Hazard summary: limited lightning risk increasing tonight and peaking Tuesday, with a limited flood risk also increasing Tuesday; both risks lower on Wednesday. && .Long Term(Thursday through Monday)... Issued at 537 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 The long-term forecast remains without significant changes. An upper-level trough will continue to influence the region by Thursday, while an easterly disturbance approaches the islands, sustaining a humid and somewhat unsettled pattern. Latest precipitable water (PWAT) guidance shows moisture peaking Thursday between 1.65 and 1.85 inches, which is above the climatological norm for early December. This enhanced moisture will support showers driven by a northeasterly flow, periodically affecting windward areas. Afternoon convection is also possible, particularly across interior and western Puerto Rico, where brief heavy downpours and isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, but the 500 mb temperatures should warm to above-normal values and that might slightly decrease the chance. As a result, this period (Thursday) feature the highest precipitation chance, posing a limited flood risk at this time, as rain activity will likely result in ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas, and a low chance to observe urban and small streams flooding. Winds are also expected to become breezier from Thursday through the weekend. By Friday and into the weekend, a high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move north of the islands. As ridging builds at various levels of the atmosphere, more stable conditions are expected, with drier air arriving and PWAT values falling below 1.4 inches, accompanied by moderate to locally breezy easterly to northeasterly winds. Even so, lingering moisture (20 to 50 percent chance of showers) will continue to support occasional showers, especially during the overnight and early morning hours. Temperatures at 925 mb are forecast to be near-average values, supporting seasonal surface temperatures. No heat-related risks are anticipated at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 SHRA will affect TJSJ/TJBQ/TIST/TISX at times with brief MVFR CIG/VIS, MNT OBSC, and short-lived VIS reductions thru the period. TJPS may see brief MVFR with aftn SHRA/iso TSRA mainly 1/1622Z. Winds thru FL015: E 1020 kt. SFC winds: LGT/VRB early, increasing to 1216 kt with higher GUSTS and SBRZ inflow aft 1/13Z, then becoming LGT/VRB again aft 1/22Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 A surface trough east of the islands will promote moderate northeasterly winds today, allowing seas to subside slightly but still supporting the small craft should exercise caution headline, particularly across the offshore Atlantic waters. As this feature approaches and moves across the CWA around Tuesday, winds will become gentle to moderate from the east to southeast, then shift to moderate from the east to northeast late Wednesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the waters over the next few days. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 530 AM AST Mon Dec 1 2025 Along the north and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, there is a moderate risk of rip currents today. These conditions are expected to remain similar through the workweek, with some improvement as winds diminish, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Beachgoers are urged to use caution, as a moderate risk means life- threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. A low risk persists elsewhere; however, even with a low risk, dangerous rip currents can still develop near groins, jetties, reefs, and piers. Visitors and residents are encouraged to always swim near a lifeguard. For location-specific details, visit weather.gov/beach/sju. In addition to rip currents, beachgoers should remain weather aware, as showers and isolated thunderstorms may move across coastal areas of the islands. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST early this morning for AMZ711. && $$ |
| #1253284 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 415 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier conditions behind a cold front today before approaching low pressure leads to increasing rain chances tonight into Tuesday. A few stronger storms are possible, especially near the coast. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase again as we tackle another cold front and then an approaching frontal system. Drying is expected into early next week. && .UPDATE... Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Very Low risk for a damaging wind gust/tornado late tonight near the coast *Rain Chances: None today; High tonight *Temps: Below normal today; above normal tonight *Confidence: High today; Moderate to High tonight Details: High pressure will build in from the north today behind a departing cold front offshore. Light to occasionally moderate rain will end by daybreak. Expect cool, dry weather today with a decent N/NE breeze and a good bit of cloud coverage w/ temps staying below normal, around 50 (inland) to around 55 (coast). The high will be weakening in time as it gives way to an approaching upper trough tonight which will spur low pressure development along the northern Gulf Coast as well as off the FL/GA coast. A trough will then develop northward from the aforementioned secondary low toward the Carolina coast, possibly becoming a westward-moving warm front late tonight as strong southerly winds try to shove it inland across SE NC and NE SC. Expect increasing rainfall tonight as moisture/forcing increase and this should strengthen the inland in-situ wedge of high pressure which will help keep the front closer to the coast. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the frontal placement so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this boundary as it could lead to a few strong to possibly severe storms near the coast as warmer/moister air gets advected inland. There looks to be plenty of low-level shear/helicity as well as deep layer shear to support a very low (albeit non-zero) risk for damaging wind gusts and/or tornado if sufficient instability can materialize. Climatology would at least suggest very limited instability will occur due to winds coming across the cooler shelf waters. Should at least see some beneficial rainfall, generally ~0.25-0.5" with some locally higher amounts up to ~1" possible. Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Passing low pressure will bring a surge of moisture as well as enhanced lift leading to our first decent chance of rain in a while. Rainfall amounts will increase Tuesday morning as the low passes, 1- 1.5" likely across the area, highest amounts for the SE NC coast. In terms of instability we`re not looking at much, most will be focused at the immediate coast and over the water, but shear and SRH will be very favorable. Depending on how the instability shakes out there could be a small threat for an isolated spinner worst case scenario. Due to the nature of flow around the low, subsidence and drier air behind on the back side, rain chances should come to an end fairly quickly once the low passes which for now looks like by Tuesday night. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with lingering dry conditions and little in the ways of difference in temperatures outside of the coast, which will see warmer highs in the lower/mid 60s Tuesday and then +10 deg cooler Wednesday as the entire area stays in the 50s. Lows will be near to just below freezing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry air will remain predominant through Thursday with moisture working its way back in late Thursday night/early Friday morning in the return flow of the departing high. There`s still some uncertainty but it looks like a backdoor cold front will push through around the same time, slightly colder conditions setting up for Friday with lingering rainfall chances through the rest of the period as we are impacted by nearby low pressure and another possible frontal passage over the weekend. Drier conditions are anticipated into early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 12Z/01 TAFs: High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z, then moderate confidence. Dry high pressure will prevail today with gusty conditions through early afternoon. MVFR cigs possibly return around 00Z near the coastal terminals (KILM/KCRE/KMYR) before spreading inland to KFLO/KLBT by around 06Z as some heavier rain quickly overspreads the area ahead of a few low pressure systems to the south. A warm front near the coast late could even bring a few thunderstorms to the coastal terminals toward 12Z. IFR restrictions likely after 09Z, possibly reaching LIFR by 12Z. LLWS also possible near the coast late tonight but not mentioning just yet. Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring flight restrictions down to at least IFR Tuesday due to low clouds, heavier showers and possible storms (mainly near the coast). Coastal terminals (ILM/CRE/MYR) may also have LLWS Tue. VFR should return Tue eve and last through at least Thu before another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as late Thu. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure centered to the NW will extend southward into the area behind a departing cold front this AM. The high will weaken with time, especially tonight when low pressure develops to the south with a trough extending northward through the local waters. This will allow northerly winds to veer to the E and then SE, possibly even to the S by the end of tonight. Winds/seas will be elevated but mainly stay below Small Craft Advisory levels until late tonight. Tuesday through Saturday...Passing coastal low pressure dragging a coastal trough onshore will lead to worsening marine conditions through Tuesday night, a Small Draft Advisory out for near 25 kt gusts and +6 ft waves. The system will be past us with northerly flow into Wednesday ~15-20 kts behind the cold front, building high pressure improving conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will increase into Friday with a backdoor cold front and then a low probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with another frontal passage. Seas will be 2-3 ft come Wednesday where they`ll remain until they start to increase ahead of the front into Saturday, 3-5 ft currently forecast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1253283 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:30 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 428 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes today will become east this evening before shifting further to the southeast by early Tuesday morning. -Breezes will continue to clock around the compass while continuing to slacken through Wednesday as the next frontal system approaches due to developing low pressure along the Mid- Atlantic to New England coastlines. -A benign forecast is anticipated for much of the week with rain chances near nil, increased humidity initially, before a dip with frontal passage mid week before increasing again by the weekend. Temperatures will also remain above normal early week, near normal mid week, and then above normal again by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The humidity is back at least for the next few days across the Florida Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower to mid 70s and dew points are in the lower 70s. This is making it feel quite humid and sticky to start the new and final month of 2025 (December). KBYX radar has been detecting isolated to scattered showers all night. The heaviest and most widespread activity has been across the southwestern distant Straits of Florida with more isolated activity elsewhere, mainly south of the Island Chain. However, occasionally a couple showers have been able to affect a few island chain communities, mostly in the Middle and Upper Keys. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows some low level clouds throughout the Keys with an area of high clouds across the southwestern Straits moving southeastward towards Cuba. Another large surface high pressure system is located over the Lower Great Lakes region. This is promoting gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain. .FORECAST... The aforementioned high pressure will continue to move to the east over the next 24 hours. Therefore, expect mainly gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes to continue through this evening before shifting to the east to southeast and further slackening overnight through Tuesday night. Moisture also continues to lurk over the area early this morning. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values of 1.4 to 1.6 inches throughout the Keys. While moisture is lingering, most of the shower activity has remained over the marine area. This is expected to be the main theme for today resulting in a dry forecast for the Island Chain. However, we do keep the rain chances over the Straits of Florida, especially the west side. As this high continues moving off to the east, a storm system will begin to quickly develop on its heels. This system will become a Nor`easter as it moves northeastward to a place just off the New England coastline by Tuesday evening. However, the item of interest for the Keys will be another frontal boundary which is expected to approach and then move through the Keys sometime mid week. However, before we get to frontal passage, there may a time frame early Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning where the winds go light and variable along with dew points in the lower to mid 70s. While we are still early on in the season, there is the potential for sea fog to develop early Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. We are cooling the SST`s with each frontal passage and with dew points in the mid 70s along with light and variable wind flow, this could set the stage for a window of sea fog. We will continue to keep an eye on this. After the potential brief window for fog, the aforementioned front is expected to press through the Keys sometime Wednesday. This will result in winds clocking around the compass becoming north to northeasterly Wednesday night into Thursday. Accompanying the freshening winds will also be a dip in the dew points, potentially back into the mid to upper 60s along with a few degrees drop in temperatures. Moisture is expected to be remain rather meager through much of the week resulting in a dry forecast. However, rain chances will be lurking nearby, mainly over the marine area surrounding the Keys. In the wake of the front, a series of much weaker high pressure systems will traverse across the eastern United States as the pattern remains progressive. Therefore, expect breezes to continue to clock around the compass this week as multiple frontal systems approach and try to press through the Keys. Rain chances remain near nil for the Island Chain through late week before slight chances creep back in for the second half of the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, another large area of high pressure currently located over the Lower Great Lakes region will continue moving eastward today. This will continue to promote gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes shifting to southeasterly by Tuesday morning as the high shifts farther east. A developing storm system on the heels of this high will result in a weakening of the pressure gradient across the Keys through early Wednesday. Breezes will also clock around the compass going from southeast to south Tuesday to northwest to north by early Wednesday. Its corresponding cold front is expected to press through the Keys mid to late week resulting in freshening north to northeast breezes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Isolated early morning showers near the island chain will dissipate shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the day. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1876, December began with the passage of a powerful cold front, which caused temperatures in Key West to plunge down to a low of 45F on the 1st of the month, breaking the daily cold record. The ensuing cold snap was incredible in its duration and magnitude, as to this day the cold high and low temperature records set on each of the five subsequent days (the 2nd-6th) have never been surpassed, and the low temperature of 44F on the 2nd remains tied for the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of December. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 75 83 73 / 10 10 10 0 Marathon 82 74 83 72 / 10 0 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253282 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 333 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is pushing across the area and high pressure will briefly build in from the north today. A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - A cold front will move offshore by sunrise, continuing scattered light showers across the area - Cooler temps today with highs around 10 degrees below normal A cold front is approaching ENC and light showers are ongoing across much of the CWA. Winds have decoupled ahead of the front, and this has allowed patchy fog to develop across central and southern zones. Light rain will continue over the next few hours and dissipate from west to east with the front expected to push offshore by sunrise. Lows will bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s inland and mid 40s to low 50s along the coast. Winds will be breezy out of the north today and much cooler and drier air will filter in behind the front as high pressure builds in from the north, keeping highs about 15-20 degrees cooler today compared to yesterday. Northwest zones will max out in the upper 40s with the rest of the area in the low 50s. Cloud cover will dissipate behind the front but will build back in later this after/evening as a low to our south moves north. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - Increasing rain chances as a low lifts towards the Carolinas A broad upper trough will dig across the Mississippi River Valley tonight and a deepening surface low off the southeast coast will move north towards the Carolinas. PoPs will increase from south to north after midnight as the low approaches. A few rumbles of thunder are possible early tomorrow morning across Onslow and Carteret Counties (15-25%), but chances will be greater over the southern coastal waters (25-35%). Rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times across these areas, especially within thunderstorms. Lows will range from the upper 30s across northwestern zones to mid 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week. The aforementioned low will quickly lift along the Carolina coast Tuesday morning and push out to sea by the afternoon/early evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected with this system, with QPF ranging from 1.5" inland to 2"+ along the coast. Given that the much of the CWA remains in a moderate drought, this rain is much needed, and these antecedent conditions will lessen the flood threat. However, minor nuisance flooding remains a possibility where higher rain rates occur. There`s potential for some supercells to develop, especially along the coast and across the coastal waters where instability, deep layer shear, and helicity will be greatest. The window for severe activity could last from early Tuesday morning through the afternoon with the potential for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado and/or waterspout. Coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, will be closely monitored for potential oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to stronger winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for the Outer Banks from Cape Hatteras to Cape Lookout. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. PoPs will quickly drop off as the low pulls away from the coast, leaving the area dry Tuesday night as high pressure builds back in and strong CAA develops. Temps will then tank, ranging from the upper 20s across the coastal plain to low 40s along the Outer Banks. High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday with highs rebounding to the mid 50s. PoPs will increase on Friday as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Plains and a low lifts along the southeast coast. With inland temps near freezing Friday morning, there`s potential for a brief window of a rain/snow mix. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM...Light rain ongoing ahead of a cold front currently located across the coastal plain. This cold front will push offshore by 10Z, with drier northerly winds ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we have generally MVFR ceilings with pockets of VFR and IFR sprinkled in. Expecting MVFR conditions to continue along and ahead of the front over the next couple hours, with drops to IFR possible east of hwy 17 where there is better lower level moisture to bring ceilings lower. Ahead of the front, we are also seeing fog quickly develop as a brief period of calm winds ahead of the front help reduce visibilities in Carteret, Craven, Jones, and Onslow counties. While unlikely, as the front moves through there could be a 1-2 hour period of light to calm winds before the cold air advection moves in, allowing for a brief period of fog to form once the rain ends. Low confidence has prevented me from going lower than 6SM BR in the TAFs, but this will be worth monitoring. Ceilings and visibilities rapidly raise as dry air filters into ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR conditions between 8-12z. This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near 20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR from south to north. Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again. && .MARINE... As of 1 AM Monday... Key Messages... - Small Craft conditions expected through this afternoon - Gale Watch in effect for portions of the coastal waters for Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system that will track along the coast - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday Latest obs show NW winds at 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Winds will veer to the north over the next couple of hours as a cold front passes the area and gusts will increase to 25-30 kt. Winds will continue to veer to the NE by this afternoon and decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt. Seas are currently 2-3 ft, will build to 4-6 ft by early this afteroon, and subside to 3-5 ft by this evening. SCAs are in effect for all waters save for the inland rivers, but a Marine Weather Statement is in effect for the Neuse River for the possibility of 25-30 kt gusts at the mouth through this morning. Tonight, a low will move up the southeast coast and winds will veer to the SE and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt by sunrise (highest gusts expected south of Cape Hatteras). Seas will respond by building back to 5-6 ft across this same area. Outlook: Conditions will continue to deteriorate Tuesday morning as the low moves along the coast. Gales are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds starting as SEerly at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt and becoming SWerly by the afternoon and increasing to 25-35 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. Seas will respond by building to 7-13 ft by the afternoon. Strong thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts will be possible Tuesday morning, especially across the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras. High pressure builds in Wednesday and conditions will improve through the day. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Saturday as another low is forecast to move up the coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 7 PM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1253281 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 317 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the area today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Rain tapers off early this morning with dry and cool weather expected today. Rain continues across far SE VA and NE NC early this morning along a cold front. Dry wx is noted elsewhere with cloud cover gradually clearing across far NW portions of the forecast area. A secondary cold front will push through over the next few hours, bringing a wind shift to the N and an end to the rain across NE NC. Temperatures range from the upper 30s NW to mid to upper 40s SE, though these should noticeably drop over the next few hours as cold advection ramps up. Early morning lows fall into the 20s inland and lower to mid 30s for SE VA and NE NC. Sunny/mostly sunny today as high pressure settles to our N. High temperatures should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday. - Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation. A stronger system remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough tonight. Widespread precip then moves in early Tuesday morning as favorable dynamics overspread the region and moisture overruns an initially cooler airmass. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb, with PWATs also increasing to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of the system and dry antecedent conditions. Still continue to monitor for any wintry wx at precip onset, as temps will initially be near or just below freezing. There is now a decent consensus among the short-term models regarding a period of sleet and freezing rain across far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. The wet bulb effect (from the initial dry air) may also act to (briefly) counteract mid-level WAA and keep temps from warming, and this effect is seen on forecast soundings after 4 AM or so. Expect no snow accumulation, but a very light sleet accumulation could occur with the initial leading edge, before transitioning to freezing rain or rain. The main impact would be any ice accretion, with the current forecast showing a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accumulation. Given the morning commute timing and HREF probs for >0.01" of ice accretion greater than 50% across western Louisa and Fluvanna counties, have went with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two zones. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM Tuesday morning as any p-type issues diminish with the transition to plain rain areawide. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing ow. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast. High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s coast). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front. - Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range. Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM. Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Monday... A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with lingering rain near ORF and ECG. Rain should continue to sag southward over the next few hrs, ending first at ORF by 07z and then ECG by 09z. Have also noted MVFR VSBY within the rain, with localized IFR CIGs near the Albemarle Sound as well. Expect CIGs to quickly lift over the next few hrs as the rain moves out and drier air moves in. Elsewhere, VFR prevails through the period with skies becoming clear this afternoon. Winds become N behind the front this morning and could gust to 20-25 kt at ORF and ECG. Winds trend down later this afternoon and evening. Outlook: The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday. && .MARINE... As of 315 AM EST Monday... - Small Craft Advisories are in effect this morning into early this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. - Low pressure brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid Small Craft Advisories are likely, with low-end gales possible. A cold front has pushed S of the Mid-Atlantic coast early this morning as 1034mb high pressure over the Midwest builds east. A NNW wind has increased to 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters where SCAs are in effect. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James and Currituck Sound where a NNW wind of 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt should develop early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper rivers should generally have a NNW wind of 10-15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas have been slow to respond, but should build to 4-5ft over the next few hours, with waves in the Ches. Bay building to 3-4ft. High pressure quickly builds into the region this aftn and evening, before sliding offshore later tonight. SCAs remain in effect for the lower James through 12z/7AM, the northern coastal waters through 15z/10AM, the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound, and central coastal waters through 18z/1PM, and the southern coastal waters through 21z/4PM where seas will be slower to subside as the wind becomes NE by this aftn. The wind diminishes to NE 5-10kt across the northern tier of the area and 10-15kt S of Cape Henry later this and becomes E tonight while remaining 5-10kt N to 10-15kt S. Seas subside to 2-3ft N to 3-4ft S. Strengthening low pressure tracks across the area Tuesday morning, and continues to deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday aftn into Tuesday night with an associated cold front sweeping across the coast Tuesday aftn. The strongest wind locally will be associated with the CAA surge Tuesday night as the wind shifts to NW. Local wind probs for >= 34kt gusts have diminished to 50-60% offshore of the MD coast, and 20-40% offshore from the VA/NC border to Chincoteague, with negligible >= 34kt gust probs for the Ches. Bay aside from localized 20-40% probs for the middle Ches. Bay. The Gale Watch will be maintained at this time as model trends could shift. However, the consensus amongst 01/00z NWP data supports high-end SCA conditions Tuesday night with only brief low-end gale force gusts with the initial CAA surge Tuesday evening. Seas build to 5-7ft and waves in the Ches. Bay build to 3-5ft. High pressure returns Wednesday aftn into Wednesday night, before sliding offshore Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move across the coast Thursday night, which will bring the potential for SCA conditions. Another low pressure system potentially impacts the region later this week but confidence remains low at this time. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-654. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1253280 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog and some low clouds are expected this morning and again late tonight into early Tuesday morning. - The next cold front approaches and moves through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. - Some cooler drier air overspreads the region for midweek, then temperatures and humidity quickly moderate late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 An upper level trough and associated low pressure system will move across the eastern U.S. today and Tuesday pushing a surface cold front south through the region late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night. Moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the front and we could see a few late day/early evening light showers/sprinkles across southwest Florida today. The main chance of showers and a few thunderstorms will be from late tonight through Tuesday ahead of the boundary with the highest rain chances across the Nature Coast closer to the upper level support. Behind the front, high pressure will move into the southeast U.S. during midweek with northerly winds ushering in some cooler drier air. Not expecting as big of a cool down as the one we saw at the end of last week, but still noticeably drier. By Friday, the high will have weakened with the next upper level trough and associated developing low pressure system moving across the deep south. Moisture will begin to increase once again as the flow veers to southeast Friday and then south to southwest Saturday. However, the exact strength and location of the trough and associated shortwave energy varies between the global models which effects the location and timing of the next cold front. The GFS stalls the front across north Florida over the weekend while the ECMWF pushes the boundary south through the region by Sunday. Either way it looks there will be a chance of a few showers Friday night and Saturday, with the highest PoPs across the Nature Coast. After this the forecast for early next week is still rather uncertain and will depend on the location and timing of the cold front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Some areas of MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible early this morning as patches of low clouds and fog are expected to develop. The MVFR ceilings could linger through much of the morning in some locations then VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon into early tonight. Northeast to east winds around 5 knots early this morning will increase to 7 to 10 knots during mid-morning and continue through the afternoon, then veer to southeast at around 5 knots by late Monday evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 East to northeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will veer to southeast to south later tonight and then southwest and increase to around 15 knots by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front approaches the waters. There is a low probability of sea fog developing later tonight into Tuesday as the front moves toward the area. This boundary will move across the coastal waters late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday night preceded and accompanied by some showers and a few thunderstorms. Behind the front, northerly winds return as high pressure builds in, but are expected to remain 15 knots or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Fire weather concerns remain limited as a warm and rather humid airmass will be across the region into Tuesday. A cold front will move across the region late Tuesday and early Tuesday night with some cooler drier air filtering in behind it. However, relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical thresholds through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 83 69 80 60 / 10 20 50 10 FMY 85 68 81 64 / 20 20 30 10 GIF 83 67 82 59 / 10 10 50 0 SRQ 83 67 79 61 / 10 10 50 10 BKV 83 63 81 51 / 10 20 60 0 SPG 81 69 78 62 / 10 20 50 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1253279 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Patchy fog developing early this morning, particularly over the interior where it may become locally dense at times. - Low chances for showers continue today. By Tuesday, a few lightning storms are possible as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front. - Boating conditions will deteriorate tonight into Tuesday ahead of the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Primary concern for today is whether any patchy fog, locally dense at times, develops early this morning - primarily across the interior. A weak front will settle across the Deep South to include north FL, where it will become quasi- stationary. Light onshore (NE/ENE) flow 5-10 mph continues through the day. Low pressure will develop across the northwest Gulf during the day and begin to move northeastward tonight. This will act to push a cold front into the FL Panhandle by Tue morning. PWATs tonight will pool to 1.60-1.70 inches areawide ahead the approaching boundary. Onshore low-level flow may be enough to occasionally allow for a few showers to push onto the coast this morning, especially Treasure Coast with some of this activity possibly moving into the interior this afternoon. Chances are relatively low at ISOLD to WDLY SCT (20-30pct) and suspect most areas will remain dry. 925 mb winds become southerly later tonight increasing to 20-25 kts by midnight, then 25-30 kts by sunrise Tue morning. Surface winds will be light ESE/SE this evening, continuing to veer more southerly ahead of daybreak increasing to around 10 mph. Warm maxes (above climo) today in the U70s to L80s. Overnight lows continue mild and in the M-U60s areawide. Tue-Tue Night...Low pressure continues to race off northeastward up the Atlc Seaboard, thus pushing the aforementioned cold frontal boundary into/thru central FL during the evening/overnight period. Scattered to numerous showers with isolated lightning storms in play will increase in coverage/intensity during the day; initially across the I-4 corridor during the morning and afternoon - points further south mainly during the afternoon and early evening. Primary storm impacts will be occasional lightning strikes, gusty to locally strong winds, and brief downpours. Instability remains only marginal. Activity will be moving SW to NE at a decent clip of 30 to 40 mph. Convection shifts offshore during the evening/overnight. As the pressure gradient increases early in the period, even outside of gusty showers or storms, we will see breezy SW/WSW winds 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Highs several degrees above normal in the L-M80s (pre-frontal) on this day. Behind the front overnight lows will sink into the L-M50s north/west of I-4 with near 60F to L60s southward. Barrier islands likely to realize M60s for mins. Wed-Sun...Mid-level high pressure remains flattened across the FL Straits and Bahamas thru the extended resulting in nearly zonal flow across the FL peninsula for much of this period. At the surface, high pressure builds into the southeast U.S. thru mid- late week, with the next low pressure system developing across the northern Gulf and dragging our next cold front through the area possibly Sat night (ECMWF) or if the GFS has its way - stalling north of central FL until Sun/Sun night before pushing it through. For the moment we keep conditions dry Wed-Fri, with the NBM trying to moisten us up enough to add PoPs back into the forecast during the day on Sat and keeping a small PoP in the forecast thru Sun night. Uncertainty remains with medium range models, but do believe highest PoP chances will surround the next front`s approach/passage sometime this next weekend. Closer to seasonal highs on Wed (post-frontal) with maxes in the L70s across I-4, with M-U70s southward. A warming trend begins slowly on Thu with highs again in the M-U70s, except L70s for coastal Volusia with the developing onshore flow. U70s to L80s prevail Fri-Sat (perhaps a few M80s south of Orlando on Sat), and depending on the next front`s passage will see maxes shunted by a few to several degrees as early as Sun and/or Mon. For mins, a chilly night Wed night/Thu morning in the U40s to around 50F N/W of I-4 with L-M50s most everywhere else, except U50s and a few L60s for coastal south Brevard and E of I-95 along the Treasure Coast. For Thu overnight, 50s and L60s (coast), and generally 60s areawide Fri/Sat nights, and potentially 50s for Sun/Mon nights. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Today-Tonight...Seas remain near 5-6 ft at buoy 41009 and it will be a judgement call if Cautionary Statements are extended offshore with early morning coastal waters forecast issuance. NE-ENE winds developing today around 10 kts. With approach of the next weather system and strengthening wind field, we will see winds begin to veer ESE/SE this evening and overnight becoming southerly by daybreak Tue morning. Speeds tonight will increase 10-15 kts very near shore and 15-20 kts over the open Atlc, but will increase further well offshore north of Sebastian Inlet to 18-23 kts by daybreak Tue. As such, we should initiate Cautionary Statements for increasing winds this evening offshore, with a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to go into effect at 09Z/4AM Tue morning for offshore marine legs north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3-5 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore (perhaps up to 6 ft still early this morning). After midnight and toward daybreak Tue morning, seas respond to the increasing winds by building 5-6 ft (again) offshore Vero Beach northward. Isolated to scattered showers forecast and cannot rule out isolated lightning storms. Tue-Fri...For now the SCA goes thru 03Z/10PM Tue evening offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. SSW/SW winds around 20-25 kts for the Advisory and 15/15-20 kts elsewhere gradually relax later Tue afternoon/evening, as winds continue to veer WSW by early evening Tue, then NWRLY (post-frontal) Tue night continuing into Wed-Wed night as the pgrad continues to relax and winds diminish further. Direction becomes more northerly early on Thu, but quickly veers NE/E during the day on Thu-Thu night, finally SE/S into Fri. Seas come down 3-5 ft Tue night, becoming 3-4 ft by Wed afternoon thru Fri, but may see some 5 ft seas well offshore Volusia on Thu. Pre-frontal on Tue, we will see highest precip chances with offshore moving showers/isolated lightning storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening. A few of these storms have the potential to be gusty with occasional lightning strikes and torrential downpours the other threats. This continues into early evening, then gradually winds down across the Gulf Stream overnight as the cold front weakens and pushes through. Wed-Fri, presently, remain mostly dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light and variable to calm winds anticipated overnight at the terminals. Patchy fog development will be possible across portions of the area, with TEMPOs in place at all interior sites including MCO and TIX between 08-12Z. TEMPOs also included at VRB and FPR between 09-13Z. Confidence in fog development remains low, so will closely monitor and amend as needed. Any fog that develops near the terminals should clear into the morning after sunrise. Winds pick up out of the ENE at 5 to 10 knots, veering to out of the SE after 00Z. VCSH possible from MLB southward after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 66 81 56 / 10 10 40 0 MCO 80 67 81 60 / 20 10 50 0 MLB 78 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 0 VRB 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 30 0 LEE 79 65 79 55 / 10 20 60 0 SFB 79 66 81 58 / 10 10 50 0 ORL 79 66 81 59 / 20 10 50 0 FPR 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 40 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570- 572. && $$ |
| #1253278 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 223 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure north of the area today in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet in the Piedmont late Monday night into Tuesday morning. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Rain tapers off early this morning with dry and cool weather expected today. Rain continues across far SE VA and NE NC early this morning along a cold front. Dry wx is noted elsewhere with cloud cover gradually clearing across far NW portions of the forecast area. A secondary cold front will push through over the next few hours, bringing a wind shift to the N and an end to the rain across NE NC. Temperatures range from the upper 30s NW to mid to upper 40s SE, though these should noticeably drop over the next few hours as cold advection ramps up. Early morning lows fall into the 20s inland and lower to mid 30s for SE VA and NE NC. Sunny/mostly sunny today as high pressure settles to our N. High temperatures should be around 10 degrees F below seasonal normals and in the 40s. Clouds increase this evening and especially tonight ahead of developing low pressure to our SW. Temps initially should drop quite quickly into the upper 20s to lower 30s this evening and early tonight, before leveling off and/or increasing a degree or two after midnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday. - Rain likely starts as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for far NW portions of the area for a light ice accumulation. A stronger system remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough tonight. Widespread precip then moves in early Tuesday morning as favorable dynamics overspread the region and moisture overruns an initially cooler airmass. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb, with PWATs also increasing to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Precip then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in NE NC. Any flooding threat is very low due to the progressive nature of the system and dry antecedent conditions. Still continue to monitor for any wintry wx at precip onset, as temps will initially be near or just below freezing. There is now a decent consensus among the short-term models regarding a period of sleet and freezing rain across far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. The wet bulb effect (from the initial dry air) may also act to (briefly) counteract mid-level WAA and keep temps from warming, and this effect is seen on forecast soundings after 4 AM or so. Expect no snow accumulation, but a very light sleet accumulation could occur with the initial leading edge, before transitioning to freezing rain or rain. The main impact would be any ice accretion, with the current forecast showing a few hundredths of an inch of freezing rain accumulation. Given the morning commute timing and HREF probs for >0.01" of ice accretion greater than 50% across western Louisa and Fluvanna counties, have went with a Winter Weather Advisory for these two zones. The advisory is in effect until 11 AM Tuesday morning as any p-type issues diminish with the transition to plain rain areawide. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). It may struggle to warm out of the 30s NW of Richmond. Becoming very cold Tuesday night in the wake of the departing ow. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s near the coast. High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. Remaining seasonably cool with high temperatures in the 40s and overnight lows again in the 20s (low 30s coast). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 220 AM EST Monday... Key Messages: - Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front. - Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range. Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM. Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. There remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance, ranging from little to no precip to impactful wintry wx. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, would lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip then potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Dry wx is favored later Saturday and especially by next Sunday. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Monday... A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with lingering rain near ORF and ECG. Rain should continue to sag southward over the next few hrs, ending first at ORF by 07z and then ECG by 09z. Have also noted MVFR VSBY within the rain, with localized IFR CIGs near the Albemarle Sound as well. Expect CIGs to quickly lift over the next few hrs as the rain moves out and drier air moves in. Elsewhere, VFR prevails through the period with skies becoming clear this afternoon. Winds become N behind the front this morning and could gust to 20-25 kt at ORF and ECG. Winds trend down later this afternoon and evening. Outlook: The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday. && .MARINE... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for tonight and Monday behind a cold front. - A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible. High pressure has moved well offshore, while a deepening low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. The local waters are currently situated in a weaker pressure gradient, with winds of 5-15 kts, with the highest winds being measured across the coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 1 ft or less, while seas in the coastal waters range between 2-3 ft. The aforementioned low pressure system will continue its NE track, moving through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and dragging a surface front across our area. Behind the front, winds will quickly shift to the NW and then to the N by Monday. 950mb wind is forecast to reach 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge, with local wind probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the coastal waters and 60-80% over the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James, the coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. Seas will build to 4-5 ft (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight/early Monday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday afternoon/evening, and winds will become NE-E and decrease in response. This decrease in winds will be brief as another low pressure system advances towards the area Monday night. This strengthening low will move across the area Tuesday morning, dragging its associated cold front through the local waters. The low will deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday evening/night. While the pressure gradient will tighten as a result, the strongest winds locally will be associated with the CAA surge on Tuesday night. Local wind probs have remained steady at 60-80% (highest out near 20 nm) and 50-70% in the Middle Chesapeake Bay. With frequent gusts to gale-force forecast for Tuesday night, have decided to put up a Gale Watch for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Though the local wind probs are much less in the lower Bay for gusts to 34 kts, the uncertainty in the exact track of the low is what prompted the Gale Watch for the entire Bay as opposed to just the middle Bay. That being said, the Gale Watch may need to be expanded to the NC coastal waters if the track varies from the current forecast. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are forecast to build to 3-4 ft. High pressure will return to the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, then will slide offshore Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to move across the coast Thursday night, potentially bringing additional SCA conditions to the area. This front will be followed by yet another low pressure system by the weekend, with continued degraded marine conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for VAZ048-509. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>634-656-658. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1253277 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 204 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring drier conditions behind a cold front today before approaching low pressure leads to increasing rain chances tonight into Tuesday. A few stronger storms are possible, especially near the coast. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase again as we tackle another cold front and then an approaching frontal system. Drying is expected into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Very Low risk for a damaging wind gust/tornado late tonight near the coast *Rain Chances: None today; High tonight *Temps: Below normal today; above normal tonight *Confidence: High today; Moderate to High tonight Details: High pressure will build in from the north today behind a departing cold front offshore. Light to occasionally moderate rain will end by daybreak. Expect cool, dry weather today with a decent N/NE breeze and a good bit of cloud coverage w/ temps staying below normal, around 50 (inland) to around 55 (coast). The high will be weakening in time as it gives way to an approaching upper trough tonight which will spur low pressure development along the northern Gulf Coast as well as off the FL/GA coast. A trough will then develop northward from the aforementioned secondary low toward the Carolina coast, possibly becoming a westward-moving warm front late tonight as strong southerly winds try to shove it inland across SE NC and NE SC. Expect increasing rainfall tonight as moisture/forcing increase and this should strengthen the inland in-situ wedge of high pressure which will help keep the front closer to the coast. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the frontal placement so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this boundary as it could lead to a few strong to possibly severe storms near the coast as warmer/moister air gets advected inland. There looks to be plenty of low-level shear/helicity as well as deep layer shear to support a very low (albeit non-zero) risk for damaging wind gusts and/or tornado if sufficient instability can materialize. Climatology would at least suggest very limited instability will occur due to winds coming across the cooler shelf waters. Should at least see some beneficial rainfall, generally ~0.25-0.5" with some locally higher amounts up to ~1" possible. Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Passing low pressure will bring a surge of moisture as well as enhanced lift leading to our first decent chance of rain in a while. Rainfall amounts will increase Tuesday morning as the low passes, 1- 1.5" likely across the area, highest amounts for the SE NC coast. In terms of instability we`re not looking at much, most will be focused at the immediate coast and over the water, but shear and SRH will be very favorable. Depending on how the instability shakes out there could be a small threat for an isolated spinner worst case scenario. Due to the nature of flow around the low, subsidence and drier air behind on the back side, rain chances should come to an end fairly quickly once the low passes which for now looks like by Tuesday night. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with lingering dry conditions and little in the ways of difference in temperatures outside of the coast, which will see warmer highs in the lower/mid 60s Tuesday and then +10 deg cooler Wednesday as the entire area stays in the 50s. Lows will be near to just below freezing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry air will remain predominant through Thursday with moisture working its way back in late Thursday night/early Friday morning in the return flow of the departing high. There`s still some uncertainty but it looks like a backdoor cold front will push through around the same time, slightly colder conditions setting up for Friday with lingering rainfall chances through the rest of the period as we are impacted by nearby low pressure and another possible frontal passage over the weekend. Drier conditions are anticipated into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moderate to high confidence for the 06Z/01 TAFs. Some restrictions down to mainly IFR are likely early this morning due to low clouds/fog/showers moving through in association with a passing cold front. VFR should return by 09Z at the inland terminals (KLBT/KFLO) and by 12Z at the coastal terminals (KILM/KCRE/KMYR). Incoming high pressure from the north will bring colder air and gusty winds through about mid day. Restrictions to MVFR are likely again toward the end of the period as moisture increases ahead of a storm system which will bring more significant impacts later tonight/Tue. Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring flight restrictions down to at least IFR late tonight into Tuesday due to low clouds, heavier showers and possible storms (mainly near the coast). Coastal terminals (ILM/CRE/MYR) may also have LLWS Tue. VFR should return Tue eve and last through at least Thu before another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as late Thu. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure centered to the NW will extend southward into the area behind a departing cold front this AM. The high will weaken with time, especially tonight when low pressure develops to the south with a trough extending northward through the local waters. This will allow northerly winds to veer to the E and then SE, possibly even to the S by the end of tonight. Winds/seas will be elevated but mainly stay below Small Craft Advisory levels until late tonight. Tuesday through Saturday...Passing coastal low pressure dragging a coastal trough onshore will lead to worsening marine conditions through Tuesday night, a Small Draft Advisory out for near 25 kt gusts and +6 ft waves. The system will be past us with northerly flow into Wednesday ~15-20 kts behind the cold front, building high pressure improving conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will increase into Friday with a backdoor cold front and then a low probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with another frontal passage. Seas will be 2-3 ft come Wednesday where they`ll remain until they start to increase ahead of the front into Saturday, 3-5 ft currently forecast. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1253276 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 156 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms late tonight through early Tuesday morning for portions of the Florida panhandle, mainly near the coast. A tornado or two is possible in this area along with gusty winds. - Beneficial rain is expected from late today through Tuesday. The heaviest amounts are most likely across the western and northern portions of the area where 1-2 inches are expected. A few small pockets that see thunderstorms will likely receive over 2 inches. - Marine winds will increase today and tonight with hazardous conditions for small craft. - There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rainfall over 1 inch late in the week into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Low pressure will move through the area with a warm front lifting northward ahead of it today and tonight, followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Widespread rain is expected across the area, gradually increasing in coverage through the day and becoming most widespread tonight into Tuesday. This rain is badly needed with the ongoing drought across the region, but a few strong to severe storms could also occur along the Florida panhandle coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Shear will be plentiful with the lifting warm front and approaching cold front, but the main limiting factor will be the amount of instability that can make it inland. The current thinking is that enough instability will make it just inland for a low but non-zero risk of severe weather near the panhandle coast late tonight into Tuesday morning. Given the amount of shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in addition to gusty winds. Elsewhere, rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder will decrease from west to east through the day on Tuesday as the system exits the area during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 A dry day is expected on Wednesday behind the departing system. Beyond Wednesday, broad upper level troughing will dig west of the area with a series of upper level disturbances moving across the southeast states. Rain chances are expected to return for the end of the week into the weekend, and a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Conditions will gradually deteriorate through the period. A warm front will develop and sharpen just offshore in the Gulf today. To its north, light rain will overspread the terminals during the course of the afternoon, and ceilings will gradually lower. By this evening into tonight, low level wind shear will become a concern as strong low level winds develop above the surface. Rain is expected to increase in intensity overnight with a few embedded thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 High pressure to the north of the waters and a frontal boundary stalled to the south will continue fresh easterly breezes today mainly west of Apalachicola to the Okaloosa/ Walton County line, where small craft operators are advised to exercise caution. Low pressure northwest of the waters will lift the aforementioned frontal boundary northward as a warm front tonight with winds becoming southerly, then clocking around to northwesterly as the low moves away from the waters. Winds are expected to increase to over 20 knots west of Apalachicola tonight where a small craft advisory is in effect. Tranquil boating conditions are expected to return by Wednesday and continue into Thursday. The approach of the next storm system will increase winds Friday into Saturday with a 50% chance of advisory-level conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 A wetting rain is expected tonight into Tuesday. This should keep fire weather concerns low through at least Tuesday afternoon. The only concern for today is for pockets of low dispersions due to low mixing heights. A drier airmass will briefly return for Wednesday and Thursday before another medium chance of wetting rain for Friday into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 149 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The next potential rain maker is expected to affect the area mainly late today into Tuesday. This system will give the region the best chance at widespread rainfall that we`ve seen in some time. The most likely rainfall amounts paint 1-2 inches across portions of southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and adjacent southwest Georgia with 0.25-1 inch values across most of the rest of the area. Localized areas of higher amounts over 2 inches due to thunderstorms are also expected. This will be very beneficial rainfall, but we will need several of these systems to erase the large rainfall deficits across the region. Brisk onshore flow from tonight into Tuesday will lead to increasing water levels along the Apalachee Bay coast. Given we`re on the descending end of the astronomical tide cycle (between the new and full moon) and winds are already clocking around to offshore prior to the higher of the mixed semidiurnal tides Tue afternoon, we`re not expecting coastal flooding attm. Looking ahead, another system may impact the region at the end of the week into the weekend with a 30-50% chance of an additional 1 inch or greater. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 70 62 71 38 / 40 90 70 0 Panama City 70 61 71 38 / 60 90 50 0 Dothan 64 56 63 33 / 50 100 50 0 Albany 64 56 65 32 / 40 90 70 0 Valdosta 70 59 71 36 / 40 80 90 0 Cross City 77 62 76 41 / 20 50 80 0 Apalachicola 70 64 73 41 / 40 80 60 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772. && $$ |
| #1253275 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 152 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Monday brings the return to drier, colder and blustery weather. Low pressure tracking south of New England brings accumulating snow to interior portions of CT and MA Tuesday and Tuesday night, with rain most likely in the lower elevations. Beyond that high pressure brings dry weather to end the week except for a moisture starved front Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message... * Dry and seasonable with breezy winds. High pressure crosses overhead Monday so subsidence beneath the high will keep skies clear and dry while gusty NW winds will persist for the first half of the day. Winds diminish through the afternoon as the center of the high moves directly overhead and the pressure gradient drops. This will lead to a decoupled boundary layer and calm winds overnight which would lend to some radiational cooling early before cloudcover increases as the high moves offshore. Lows dip into the low to mid 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages: * Coastal system Tuesday morning and night brings plowable snow to higher elevations of southern New England. Winter Storm Watch issued for the central and western regions of Massachusetts. A mid level shortwave over the Great Plains on Monday then moves into the eastern U.S. Tuesday. As it digs into the southeast it induces a deepening surface low off the Mid-Atlantic coast that lifts up along the New England coast Tuesday into Nova Scotia by early Wednesday. Guidance is in fairly good agreement at this point that the low tracks along or just inside the 70/40 benchmark. However, there are several factors that point to this being a largely high elevation snow/low elevation rain storm. First, this is a progressive system with no high pressure over Quebec to block its exit and keep sub-freezing air locked in at the surface. As such, warm advection kicks in quickly on southerly LLJ; so while we start off below freezing in the low levels temps will quickly warm above freezing outside of the Berkshires and Worcester Hills. This is especially true along the south coast as SSTs remain in the 50s. Even if precip starts as snow initially, accumulation is unlikely, or, worst case would likely be some coatings on grassy surfaces. The timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn`t bode well for snow chances in the low elevations. In these early season cases "positive snow depth change" products are often more representative in the numerical guidance. This setup featuring an open wave at 750 mb until downstream of SNE isn`t typically a good indicator of a big snow storm. Where we do see snow, snow ratios in the guidance have trended down over the last 24-48 hours and model soundings indicate max omega/lift misses the DGZ so excessively heavy snowfall rates aren`t expected. The trend with this forecast update was to lower the snowfall totals based on the factors discussed above. Regardless, there is a lot of moisture available (PWATs over 1.25" over the Cape and islands) and strong forcing for ascent; we previously mentioned the strong LLJ, and we`ll also benefit from a coupled upper jet streak (SNE placed between the RRQ of an exiting jet and a LFQ of another). This will lead to rainfall totals of over an inch in southeast MA by the time precip comes to an end early Wednesday morning. While colder temps pulled in on the backside may produce a flip to snow briefly on the tail end, QPF will be tapering off and not expecting appreciable accumulations. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Messages: * A few snow showers possible the second half of Thursday with the passage of an Arctic cold front, otherwise dry weather Wednesday through Friday. Turning unsettled by next weekend. * Temperatures are trending well-below-average Wednesday through the upcoming weekend. An Arctic cold front Thursday night to bring the coldest air of the season, highs struggling to get above freezing by Friday afternoon. Wednesday through Sunday is quiet and cold. 500mb pattern becomes somewhat zonal across much of the CONUS with surface high pressure builds in behind the departing coastal low on Wednesday. Then an Arctic cold frontal passage late in the day Thursday. Moisture is limited, PWATS less than 0.6" should be enough for snow showers with the frontal passage. With the Arctic cold front, 925mb temperatures fall to -20C to -15C Thursday night, temperatures lower into the single digits to low teens. But, a gusty northwest wind makes it feel much colder, wind chills are below 0F across the higher terrain and well into the single digits for the coastal plain. Towards the end of the extended, guidance shows a more active pattern, leading to unsettled conditions come next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06Z update... Through 12Z...High confidence. Rain exits Cape Cod/ACK by 08Z followed by clearing and VFR. S gusts 20-25 kt with areas of LLWS this evening over Cape/Islands associated with a low level jet. Today...High Confidence. VFR. NW gusts to 25 kt, diminishing late afternoon. Tonight...High confidence. VFR. Light to calm wind. Tuesday...Moderate Confidence. SN for BDL/BAF/ORH and rain for other terminals arrives 12-18z. VFR lowers to IFR by 18Z. Lower confidence in whether BOS/BED/PVD may see some SN...more than likely RA or some non- accumulating SN. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in trends. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in trends. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Patchy BR. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Friday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tuesday...High confidence. W winds become NW through the day today with gusts 25-30 kt continuing. SCA for all waters. Winds quickly diminish through Mon afternoon as high pres builds in from the west. Light winds Mon evening becoming S-SE toward daybreak. Rough seas over southern waters will begin to subside during Mon and fall below 5 ft by Mon evening. Periods of rain ending tonight from W to E. Dry with good vsbys Mon and Mon night. Tuesday rain overspreads the waters and SSE winds early increase and turn out of the east then northeast late as a low pressure system crosses the southern waters. This leads to gusts as strong as 25-30 kts by late Tuesday. Outlook /Wednesday through Friday/... Wednesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Widespread fog. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for MAZ002>006-008>012-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230- 232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ231- 250-251-254>256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236. && $$ |
| #1253274 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1244 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Light showers through this morning, lull in rain chances before returning Wednesday night through Friday - Below normal temperatures through Tuesday, another cold front Thursday - Near freezing wind chill values early Tuesday morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 A surface low over the northwest Gulf and mid-level PVA will allow for a medium to high chance for light showers or drizzle across South Texas this morning, before rain chances diminish this afternoon as the system moves east. The lull in rain chances will continue through Wednesday before ramping up again ahead of our next cold front expected Thursday. Low to medium rain chances will continue through Thursday night before dropping to low behind the front. This is the season of cold front one after the other, models are already in good agreement with a front early next week as well. Other than Tuesday behind the reinforcing surge of high pressure bringing in drier air, skies will remain mostly cloudy to completely overcast. Below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, highs today will be limited to the 50s with lows tonight dropping into the mid to upper 30s north and to the mid 40s along the coast. The reinforcing surge of high pressure late tonight into Tuesday morning will cause near freezing wind chills. Just a tad warmer highs on Tuesday with less cloud coverage and lows in the 40s Tuesday night. Brief return of onshore flow Wednesday to Wednesday night ahead of the next cold front will warm temperatures to near normal with highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 MVFR ceilings persist through all of South Texas through at least 00Z Tuesday, when terminals closer to the Rio Grande start seeing CIGs to lift above 5k ft at KLRD/KCOT. Elsewhere today, rain chances increase along the Coastal Plains/Victoria Crossroads, reducing flight categories down to IFR between 12Z-18Z with MVFR CIGs remaining thereafter. && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Fresh to strong north to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning, before dropping below advisory criteria of 20 knots Monday afternoon and early evening. A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through later tonight, leading to advisory level winds with a strong northerly breeze (BF 6) through midday Tuesday. Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze returns Tuesday night through early Thursday morning before our next cold front during the day Thursday, leading to moderate to fresh northerly flow heading into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1210 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% through this week with below normal temperatures through Tuesday. Medium to high chances for showers this morning will diminish through the afternoon. A brief lull in rain chances following through Tuesday night after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday. Low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday as another cold front pushes through Thursday. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 53 42 58 47 / 60 10 0 0 Victoria 50 37 57 39 / 80 20 0 0 Laredo 59 45 62 50 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 53 41 59 44 / 50 10 0 0 Rockport 55 44 60 51 / 80 20 0 0 Cotulla 56 40 61 45 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 54 42 59 46 / 50 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 56 47 60 55 / 70 20 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1253272 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 119 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A storm system will pass through the region late today into Tuesday. High pressure then returns for the middle to end of this week ahead of the next frontal system that could impact the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... During the pre-dawn hours, the cold front will surge southward across GA and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the forecast area, remaining centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. By this afternoon, an H5 shortwave will ripple over the Southern Plains with a 150 kts H25 jet crossing the Arklatex. Sfc low pressure should gradually organize near the Mississippi Delta along the cold front. The developing low should support strengthening south H85 winds over the sfc ridge across the Southeast U.S. this afternoon through tonight. This afternoon, deepening isentropic lift and moisture should support thick cloud cover across the forecast area. Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions combined with northeast sfc winds should keep high temperatures limited to the upper 50s inland to the low to mid 60s along the coast and extreme SE GA. Coniditons through the daylight hours should remain dry. However, isolated showers may cross extreme SE GA late this afternoon. Tonight, high resolution guidance indicates that H85 winds will strengthen overnight, reaching 60 kts across much of the CWA by 12Z. The sfc ridge should remain across the forecast area tonight, until the sfc low tracks NE along the coast by day break. Models indicate strong forcing develop along and ahead of the sfc low. The deepening forcing along with PW values in excess of 1.5 inches should result in widespread rainfall after midnight. Rainfall rates will likely become moderate during the pre-dawn hours, thunderstorms possible near the coast. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 40s inland to the low to mid 50s across the coastal counties. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday: In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a jet streak will start to splinter over the Ohio River Valley with an area of low pressure beginning to move northeast across southeast Georgia. Simultaneously, an area of high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes responsible for the northeast winds today, will slowly move east while widespread rain falls into the CAD. This precipitation falling into the CAD will act to reinforce the northeast winds and keep Tuesday morning rather cold and wet. However, the key question is when will the CAD weaken and by how much. Three subtle but important scenarios are possible with this system: Scenario 1 (~50% chance): The CAD is slightly stronger and the area of low pressure rides northeast along a stalled boundary across inland GA and SC. Peak rainfall amounts of 1" - 2" from a Candler GA to Hampton SC to Berkeley SC county line. Scenario 2 and 3 (50% chance): The CAD collapses more quickly/ weaker with the peak rainfall axis being in the Midlands or even approaching the Upstate of SC. Either scenario has the peak rainfall amounts avoiding the urban area of Savannah and Charleston. Hourly Rainfall Rates: Latest run of the HREF shows the most likely rates to be around .10"/ hour with some rates nearing 0.25" an hour. Probabilities of rainfall amounts exceeding 1" in 6 hrs are less than 20%. Timing: Sprinkles will start 8 PM Monday to 12 AM Tuesday with peak precipitation rates between 3 AM and 2 PM Tuesday. Precipitation will then end from west to east 4 PM - 8 PM Tuesday as a cold front crosses GA and SC. Wednesday and Thursday: Surface high pressure will move east over the Ohio River Valley with no precipitation expected. Winds initially Wednesday morning will be out of the northwest, with a reinforcing cold front then crossing the zones from the northeast. Expect temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A return of multiple rounds of precipitation looks possible for next weekend as a long wave trough axis centers across the central United States. Some guidance is showing a more amplified pattern (~65%) while a mix of GEFS/ GEPS/ EPS members how a less amplified pattern (~35%). The more amplified pattern allows multiple rounds of shortwaves to traverse the region along with multiple rounds of precipitation. The less amplified pattern, keeps most of the rainfall further south and east of the region. At this point, precipitation for Friday into Saturday at times appears likely (>60%) with temperatures slightly below normal. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, the sfc cold front was near KCHS and KJZI, pushing seaward. MVFR ceilings have developed near the front, impacting KCHS until 7Z. In the wake of the front, winds will shift from the northeast and ceilings should remain VFR. During the daylight hours, a sfc ridge will build across the terminals and low pressure organizes near the Mississippi Delta. Isentropic lift and moisture should increase from the south after mid-morning. KSAV is timed to see MVFR ceilings by 17Z, then reaching KJZI and KCHS by 21Z. HREF indicates that the leading edge of a shield of rain will reach KSAV between 3-6Z, highlighted with a PROB30. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR with the arrival of the rain. Rain may reach KCHS and KJZI shortly after 6Z Tuesday. Tuesday: A storm system will bring higher probabilities (50-80%) of flight restrictions tonight into Tuesday, with both low ceilings and lowered vsbys possible in addition to rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Low level wind shear also appears likely (>60% chance) at all terminals Tuesday morning. Wednesday through Friday: VFR through Friday morning. Late Friday, cloud bases will begin to lower ahead of the next storm system. && .MARINE... During the pre-dawn hours, the cold front will surge southward across GA and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Behind the front, high pressure will build across the forecast area, remaining centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. This pattern will support gusty northeast winds across the marine zones today, gusts reaching into the low 20 kts. This evening, low pressure is expected to approach from the west, resulting in winds veering from the south. South winds should continue to strengthen through the rest of the night, with gusts reaching 25 kts or more across the outer GA and Charleston County nearshore waters during the pre-dawn hours. Wave heights will increase late tonight, with 6 ft seas developing with the SC nearshore and outer GA waters during the pre-dawn hours. The wind and sea conditions will be highlighted with Small Craft Advisories. Tuesday: A surface low will approach the region from the southwest. Northeast winds from the CAD will slowly weaken and turn from the southeast then southwest by the morning hours. Sustained winds of 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt appear likely as cooler shelf waters limit mixing. Expect seas 5 to 8 ft. As such, a small craft advisory has been issued for the offshore Georgia waters and nearshore SC waters for Tuesday morning and evening. A cold front will then cross the waters Tuesday evening with seas slowly falling 3 to 5 ft. Wednesday through Friday: Northwest winds veering from the north Wednesday morning 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. No precipitation is expected. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Chances for minor coastal flooding return with the Tuesday early morning high tide, along the Charleston and Colleton county coast. Astronomical tides will then continue to rise with the morning high tide cycle through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed, primarily for the Charleston Harbor tide (Charleston and coastal Colleton counties). && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ350-374. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. && $$ |
| #1253271 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 108 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Extreme Drought for Inland Areas. Practice Fire Safety & Check for Local Burn Bans - Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday Morning Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday - Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes - High Risk for Rip Currents for Northeast FL Beaches Today - Small Craft Advisory Offshore Waters Tuesday - Patchy Frost over Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A weak front will continue to push through the local area through the morning, increasing cloud cover. Low temperatures will generally be in the 50s to low 60s. Shower potential will start off near the I-10 corridor later this morning, then spreading across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida through the afternoon as the front stalls near north central Florida. Thunder probabilities are low during the day on Monday. High temperatures will be pretty close to normal, upper 60s across southeast Georgia and low 70s for northeast Florida with heavy cloud cover and onshore winds. Overnight, a stronger frontal system will approach from the northwest, increasing isolated storm chances after midnight, especially for inland southeast Georgia and over the local waters. Higher storm coverage / strong storm potential will increase after daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Showers with isolated thunderstorms will bring needed rainfall Tuesday, with the potential for a few stronger storms mainly across northeast Florida Tuesday morning into the afternoon where higher, although limited, surface based instability will reside. A more widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across southeast Georgia through Tuesday morning as a broad surface low moves from the Gulf toward the northeast along the cold front. Farther south across northeast Florida, showers and isolated storms will move inland from the Gulf across the Suwannee River Valley preceding the surface cold front after daybreak Tuesday morning and expand eastward toward the Atlantic coast into the afternoon. A dry slot of mid level air across northeast FL will enable more surface heating compared to SE GA ahead of this front, with latest HREF advertising MUCAPE 400-700 J/kg peaking across the Suwannee River Valley toward the SE GA Golden Isles Tuesday morning (after 7 am) and shifting eastward toward the northeast FL Atlantic coast through about 2 pm, coincident with about 35-45 kts of bulk shear and strong 850 mb winds of 40-50 kts. Although stronger shear will exist across southeast GA, the lack of instability will limit strong to severe thunderstorm risk. The stronger to isolated severe storm risk will be across NE FL, especially the Suwannee Rive Valley, Tuesday morning and toward the NE FL Atlantic coast through early afternoon. The stronger storm threats will be localized damaging winds of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes. As dynamics lift out the northeast into late Tuesday afternoon, precipitation will further decrease in coverage across northeast and north-central FL as the front presses farther south of the area into Tuesday evening. In addition to strong gusts from thunderstorms, non- convective wind gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible at times across northeast FL, below local Wind Advisory criterion. Needed wetting rainfall is expected with this system, with accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0 inches across inland southeast GA to less than 0.25" south and southeast of JAX to Gainesville. Although these accumulations will put a very minor divot in local fall season deficits, this rain event is just the first wave of a general pattern shift with what looks to be a wetter weekend in store. Dry conditions are expected Tue night through Wed night as high pressure builds northwest then north of the region, with a weak pressure pattern in place. Main weather impact this period will be inland patchy to areas of frost across southeast GA, with the better coverage Wed night/Thu morning due to near calm winds. Temperatures will trend above normal Tuesday in the warm sector in the 70s to near 80, while north of the warm front near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee River basins highs will near normal in the mid to upper 60s. Trailing the front, highs will fall back to near to below normal Wednesday and generally range in the 60s with some mid/upper 50s across inland SE GA. Overnight lows plummet Tuesday night into the mid/upper 30s across SE GA to the 40s across NE FL by sunrise Wednesday, but light winds will keep wind chills above cold weather advisory criteria. Even colder Wednesday night into Thu morning, with more widespread inland frost expected as lows fall into the mid 30s across inland SE GA and Suwannee River Valley to the 40s toward the Atlantic coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning with weak high pressure dominating north of the region. Rain chances return late Friday with a warm-up as a warm front lifts across the area ahead of the next approaching cold front. Latest model guidance is showing a similar scenario with a Gulf Low tracking NE along the approaching cold front brining more widespread rainfall across SE GA Friday night into Saturday, with more scattered showers and storms across northeast FL as the front slows its approach toward NE FL and begins to stall/linger somewhere across the southern region into the weekend. This scenario would bring periods of needed rainfall. Mild temperatures expected from above normal on Friday to near to below normal highs into the weekend with cloud cover and passing showers. General drying trend late Sunday into Monday with rainfall shifting south of the area and high pressure building to the north with cooler temperatures near to just below climo early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with calm and variable winds expected through the morning. By early afternoon, lower ceilings will begin to impact SSI and the Duval sites. After about 00Z Tuesday towards the end of this TAF period, most of the TAF sites (other than SGJ) should see MVFR to IFR ceilings as a stronger front approaches. Rain chances Monday are at 15-20%, so did not include that in the TAFs, storm chances increase after this TAF period on Tuesday. && .MARINE... A cold front will move south southeast across area through Monday. The front will lift back north across area as a warm front Monday night, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the southeastern US, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible beginning Tuesday morning. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate today and Tuesday NE FL High today, moderate Tuesday && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak front will move south of the area today with a low chance of passing showers and breezy northeast winds at the coast. This front will then lift back north as a warm front tonight, trailed by increasing south winds and rain chances ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will move across the area Tuesday, brining widespread wetting rainfall to most of southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, with lower rainfall amounts toward north-central Florida. Breezy southwest winds are expected outside of thunderstorm activity Tuesday, mainly across northeast Florida. Rainfall will end Tuesday evening as the front presses south of the area. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday with lower humidity under north winds, but lower dispersion due to weak transport winds. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gusty and erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity Tuesday. Some rainfall is expected, but lightning strikes may cause wildfires due to dry fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 53 67 34 59 / 80 90 10 0 SSI 59 73 43 61 / 60 70 0 0 JAX 60 77 42 65 / 50 70 0 0 SGJ 64 79 49 66 / 30 50 0 0 GNV 62 79 46 67 / 40 80 0 0 OCF 63 79 49 68 / 30 70 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1253270 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 110 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 105 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday for the Atlantic beaches. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday before drier conditions return for mid week. - Areas of fog possible early this morning over inland portions of South FL. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 105 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Latest probabilistic guidance shows an increasing likelihood for patchy to areas of dense fog, especially over inland portions of South FL. Given the clearing skies, light winds, and precip yesterday, the increase in probs seems reasonable. Increased the coverage of patchy fog to include much of South FL outside of the immediate metro, and included areas of fog over inland portions of SW FL. Will monitor observations and area web cams closely this morning to see if any headlines will be needed. Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary across northern FL with a couple of weak lows along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf. Locally, moderate easterly flow will continue again today, with the latest HREF showing PWAT values continuing to slowly increase today with values of 1.6-1.8 inches by late in the day. Most of the hi-res guidance continues to struggle with precip for today, so going with more of a persistence forecast today with scattered showers throughout the day. While chances will remain for the entire east coast metro, the best signals for persistent coastal convergence showers will be over Palm Beach and northern Broward counties. QPF is another struggle today, but wouldn`t be surprised to see pockets of 0.5-1 inch amounts, while the vast majority of the area will be a quarter inch or less. High temps this afternoon will range from the low to middle 80s. As the complex system shifts to the SE US late tonight into early Tuesday morning, our low level flow will become SSE tonight and eventually SSW during the day on Tuesday. Some widely scattered coastal showers are possible overnight into the early morning hours, with mild lows ranging from the upper 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. With the SSW flow in place on Tuesday, the humidity really ramps up with dewpoints surging into the low to middle 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches. As the frontal boundary starts to approach our area from the NW, plenty of instability will be in place for showers and occasional thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The cold front will cross the area on Wednesday before settling south of the area across the FL Straits. Little moisture will be left by the time the front gets here, so rainfall chances will be fairly low. The front will however bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the region for the remainder of the work-week, with temperatures returning to near normal. As the low level flow turns southerly next weekend, moisture begins to increase the slight chances of rain will return to the forecast. Temps next weekend will also return to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light easterly winds this morning increase to around 10kts after 15Z, with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered showers possible across the east coast terminals throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Cautionary easterly winds expected across the local waters today before turning southerly on Tuesday. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the Atlantic waters Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Moderate easterly flow today will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The high risk will remain through Tuesday before conditions improve mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 73 84 69 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 84 70 85 66 / 10 0 20 10 Opa-Locka 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 83 72 84 68 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 81 72 84 68 / 20 10 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 82 72 85 69 / 30 10 20 10 Pembroke Pines 84 72 86 68 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Boca Raton 83 72 86 67 / 30 20 30 10 Naples 85 69 82 67 / 10 10 20 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253269 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1248 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push across the region tonight with high pressure briefly building in from the north Monday. A strong low pressure system will move across the Carolina coast Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the region late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... As of 7 PM Sunday... Key Messages... - Scattered showers associated with a cold front will move through overnight bringing light rainfall amounts Skies will continue to increase this evening ahead of an approaching cold front, currently moving through central NC. Regional radar showing patchy light rain beginning to blossom over the area. Rain chances will continue to increase overnight as the mid-level shortwave and attendant cold front pushes across the region. Moisture and dynamics remain rather meager and not expecting much precip, mainly less than a couple tenths of an inch. The front is progged to push across ENC mid to late evening with CAA ramping up after midnight with temps bottoming out in the upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid to upper 40s along the coast around daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... As of 2 PM Sunday... Key Messages... - Cool weather returns Monday with highs around 10 degrees below normal High pressure briefly builds in from the north bringing dry and cooler conditions Monday with breezy north winds. Skies will be variably cloudy with clearing skies through the morning but will see increasing clouds through the afternoon as the next storm system strengthens across the deep South. Temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with highs around 50 inland to mid 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 2 PM Sunday... Key Messages - A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and minor coastal flooding - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region late in the week. Broad upper troughing across the CONUS with a series of embedded shortwaves will push across the region through the long term. A rather robust trough pushes into the Mississippi River Valley Monday night then quickly pushes across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Low pressure will rapidly deepen off the Southeast coast late Monday night and lift along the Carolina coast Tuesday morning, then quickly depart the area Tuesday afternoon. Guidance is a bit faster with the system but there continues to be some difference with the low track with most North American models continuing to track the low inland across the coastal plain while most European models show the low tracking right along to just off the coast. A more inland track will bring parts of ENC on the "warm" side of the low bringing the potential for some convective elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the coast east of US 17, and over the marine waters. Meanwhile, a coastal track will generally keep convection off to just along the coast. A plume of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low. Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. Given the antecedent dry conditions, the flooding threat will be nominal but cannot rule out minor nuisance flooding in areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates. For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large waves, and a higher tide cycle. See TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING section for more information. Could see a few showers linger into Tuesday evening but conditions quickly improve overnight as high pressure builds into the area and strong CAA develops. Temps will plummet to the upper 20s to lower 30s inland to low 40s coast. High pressure will bring below normal temps Wednesday and Thursday with temps around 5-10 degree below normal. Precip chances increase again late in the week as the next northern stream shortwave digs into the central CONUS and a low pressure system lifts along the Southeast coast. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM...Light rain ongoing ahead of a cold front currently located across the coastal plain. This cold front will push offshore by 10Z, with drier northerly winds ushering in behind it. Currently, ahead and along the front we have generally MVFR ceilings with pockets of VFR and IFR sprinkled in. Expecting MVFR conditions to continue along and ahead of the front over the next couple hours, with drops to IFR possible east of hwy 17 where there is better lower level moisture to bring ceilings lower. Ahead of the front, we are also seeing fog quickly develop as a brief period of calm winds ahead of the front help reduce visibilities in Carteret, Craven, Jones, and Onslow counties. While unlikely, as the front moves through there could be a 1-2 hour period of light to calm winds before the cold air advection moves in, allowing for a brief period of fog to form once the rain ends. Low confidence has prevented me from going lower than 6SM BR in the TAFs, but this will be worth monitoring. Ceilings and visibilities rapidly raise as dry air filters into ENC before sunrise with ENC forecast to be back to VFR conditions between 8-12z. This afternoon, skies remain VFR with gusty northerly winds near 20 knots as high pressure builds in. We then pivot to deteriorating conditions Tuesday morning as a low pressure system approaches the region, dropping ceilings to MVFR/IFR from south to north. Outlook: Widespread sub- VFR likely Tuesday as a low pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with pred VFR conditions expected. Another system Friday can bring drops to sub-VFR again. && .MARINE... As of 3 PM Sunday... Key Messages... - Small Craft conditions expected tonight through Monday afternoon behind a cold front - Gale Watch issued for portions of the coastal waters for Tuesday due to a strong low pressure system which will track over the Carolinas - Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday Currently seeing southerly winds around 10-20 kt with seas around 2-3 ft across the coastal waters this afternoon. A cold front will cross the waters this evening causing winds to switch to the NW and increase to 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts. Strong northerly winds continue Monday morning, with conditions slowly improving through the day. Seas will build to 4-6 ft in response to stronger winds, then subside below 6 ft Monday afternoon. Outlook: Fair boating conditions will briefly continue Monday night, but this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system moves into the coastal waters Tuesday morning. Gale conditions are expected across the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet with winds S 20-30 kts with gusts to 40 kts with seas building to 7-13 ft. There remains potential for Gale conditions to develop in other marine zones, but this will depend on the exact track and strength of this system as is passes by ENC. Conditions improve through the day Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area bringing light winds and seas. A backdoor front is progged to push south across the waters Thursday night and could see minor SCA conditions for a brief period late Thursday night, mainly in gusts. Reinforcing high pressure briefly builds into the area Thursday but another potential low pressure system may impact the waters late Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 7 PM Sun...A strong low pressure system moving through North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity are still unclear at this time. Though there is potential for localized ocean overwash on Hatteras and Ocracoke Islands, esp around high tide, which could impact portions of NC-12 Tue. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ135- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ152- 154-156-158. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for AMZ152-154. Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1253268 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1142 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Colder and breezy conditions are occurring today in the wake of an overnight cold front. On the waters, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters through this evening, and on coastal Gulf waters until the morning. - Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area - with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing Monday night. - There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Cold temperatures expected tonight...however, overcast skies will keep it from being the coldest night of the week...those nights are up next! Lows for tonight into Monday morning will be in the 40s for much of the area, with a few locations along the coast touching into the low 50s. For Monday, 500mb showing a series of vort maximums traversing SE Texas during the day, with a shortwave at the 700mb level, and onshore flow at the 850mb level continuing to funnel in Gulf moisture. Along with isentropic lifting, this setup will factor into the potential for showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow. Showers will start out light overnight. Coverage of showers will increase during the day tomorrow with the approach of the shortwave from the west. Rain is anticipated to move offshore later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a reinforcing front brings in a cooler and drier airmass. Temperature wise Monday into Tuesday...consensus among my shift partner and I is that model guidance is coming in a bit too warm for this setup. Opted for a blend of previous forecast, CONSShort, and NBM10. Probabilistically speaking, HREF and NBM had a low (23-30%) chance of areas south of I-10 surpassing the 55F mark tomorrow (areas close to I-10 and north were at a 0% probability). With cloudy skies and rain expected for tomorrow, I would not be surprised if temperatures turned out to be even a few degrees cooler than what is forecast. Tuesday may be a bit more true to the story with skies expected to clear out significantly and sun able to contribute to the daytime highs. Monday night and Tuesday night will be pretty brisk with temperatures dropping into the low 30s to low 40s. The chance for freezing temperatures increases further north across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Onshore winds resume Tuesday night and begin another round of warming for the area...and as observed for the last couple of weeks, the return of onshore flow will set the stage for yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the week. Will refrain from getting too hung up on details with it being later in the period, but in any case, looking like another wet weekend for at least the coastal areas. Bailey && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Widespread MVFR conditions this evening are expected to trend IFR as cigs drop overnight. Isolated to scattered SHRA activity is expected to develop during the 07-09Z time frame, with more widespread steadier RA occurring after 12Z. We could not rule out a rumble of thunder. But any TSRA should be isolated, and not common enough to warrant mention in the TAF. As the steady RA settles in, vis is expected to average MVFR while cigs likely stay in the IFR to lower end MVFR range through much of the rest of the day. Could not rule out areas of LIFR tomorrow. Winds are expected to remain NE and will be occasionally gusty. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Gusty north to northeast are in place over the coastal waters following yesterday`s frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Another upper level disturbance will move through overnight and Monday bringing another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning as moderate to strong northeasterly winds develop behind this exiting system. At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water advisory. Bailey && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 41 46 36 52 / 40 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 44 49 39 54 / 50 90 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 57 47 55 / 60 90 70 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375. && $$ |
| #1253267 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:45 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1230 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Patchy fog developing late tonight, particularly over the interior where it may become dense at times. - Low chances for showers continue on Monday. By Tuesday, a few storms are possible as moisture increases and a front approaches the area. Dry conditions are then forecast mid to late week behind the front. - Boating conditions will deteriorate Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the front. && .UPDATE... Issued at 647 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Quick update to add mention of patchy fog over much of the interior and portions of the Treasure Coast overnight. Afternoon statistical guidance and HREF members have increased the probabilities for fog along the I-4 corridor after midnight through sunrise. This seems to be where light winds and near- saturation occur, just south of a weak boundary over N Fla. While confidence is rarely high when forecasting fog over the district, the signal is consistent enough to also add a small area of dense fog potential mainly near and SW of Greater Orlando. Also trimmed rain chances at the coast for tonight as onshore flow has decreased a bit, at least in the near-term. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Tonight-Monday...A cold front moving through the southeast U.S. will eventually stall across to just north of north FL into Monday. A moderate low level onshore flow will continue across east central FL and combine with sufficient moisture at or below 850mb to produce isolated to scattered over the coastal waters. This activity will continue to push onshore along the coast tonight through early Monday and then spread inland through Monday afternoon. Rain chances still remain on the lower end, around 20-30 percent. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s, with highs still near to above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s. Tuesday...Low pressure at the surface will develop near the northern Gulf coast along the stalled front Monday night and lift NE as a trough aloft shifts from the central to eastern United States. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated storms will move east- northeast across the area and offshore ahead of the front during the daytime Tuesday. Increasing W/SW winds around 30-45 knots from 925- 500mb may allow any storms that develop across areas mainly north of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast to produce strong wind gusts, up to 40-55 mph. Instability will be the overall limiting factor with stronger storm potential, as SBCAPE looks to remain below 500 J/kg. Rain chances continue to range from around 60-70% near to NW of I-4 and 40-50% to the south. Into Tuesday night any convection should shift offshore as front pushes through central FL. Breezy and warm conditions forecast Tuesday, with highs several degrees above normal in the low to mid 80s for most locations. Temperatures will fall as low as the 50s, mainly north of Orlando by late Tuesday night, with lows in the 60s forecast near to south of Orlando. Wednesday-Sunday...High pressure will gradually build in behind the front to the north of Florida. Northerly flow Wednesday through Thursday will continue to transport drier/cooler air into central Florida, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast and temperatures near to slightly below normal. Highs will be in the 70s with overnight lows in the 50s most locations. However, temps may fall as low as the upper 40s northwest of I-4 Wednesday night. Dry conditions prevail into Friday as winds veer onshore and allow temps to gradually rise into late week. Highs will range from the upper 70s to low 80s, with lows Friday night in the low to mid 60s. There remains some forecast uncertainty into next weekend as another front approaches Florida. The GFS stalls this boundary across north FL, while the ECMWF moves the boundary through into Saturday night. Either way rain chances will return to the forecast. Currently have PoPs rising to 30-50% from Brevard/Osceola counties northward on Saturday, and 20% across Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast, with rain chances then ranging from 30-40% areawide on Sunday. Temperatures will continue a warming trend into Saturday, with highs in the low to mid 80s for much of the region, and if front is able to push through during the weekend as the ECMWF suggests, then highs will fall back to more normal values in the 70s on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 Tonight-Monday...Seas at Buoy 41009 have reached up to 5.6 feet at times today, which indicates there may be a little more coverage of the 6 foot seas over the offshore waters. The NBM/WNAWAVE10 have a better handle on this than the NWPS, with the guidance suggesting that seas up to 6 feet may linger offshore through early this evening. Have therefore added small craft exercise caution to the entire offshore waters with the latest update. Also, increased rain chances based on latest radar trends and added a slight chance for thunderstorms across the offshore waters of the Treasure Coast where instability is a little higher and where we have already seen some lightning strikes with this activity. Isolated to scattered showers will continue across the waters tonight into Monday as east-northeast winds up to 10-15 knots continue. Instability decreases over the gulf stream waters tonight, so lightning potential looks much lower. Seas will range from 3-5 feet overnight tonight through Monday. Tuesday-Friday...Low pressure will lift northeast across the southeast U.S. dragging a cold front through the waters Tuesday night. Boating conditions will deteriorate into Monday night as onshore flow strengthens to 15-20 knots offshore. Winds then veer to the S/SW through Tuesday and increase up to 15-25 knots, with seas building to 4-6 feet as front approaches. Scattered showers and isolated storms ahead of the front will move through the area Tuesday, with a few storms having the potential to produce strong wind gusts and lightning strikes as they shift quickly offshore. W/NW winds actually decrease some behind the front, but will still remain up to 15-20 knots offshore Tuesday night. High pressure will gradually build in behind the front with drier conditions forecast and winds decreasing below 15 knots through mid to late week. Winds will be out of the north Wednesday-Thursday and then become onshore by Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1230 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light and variable to calm winds anticipated overnight at the terminals. Patchy fog development will be possible across portions of the area, with TEMPOs in place at all interior sites including MCO and TIX between 08-12Z. TEMPOs also included at VRB and FPR between 09-13Z. Confidence in fog development remains low, so will closely monitor and amend as needed. Any fog that develops near the terminals should clear into the morning after sunrise. Winds pick up out of the ENE at 5 to 10 knots, veering to out of the SE after 00Z. VCSH possible from MLB southward after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 77 66 81 56 / 10 10 40 0 MCO 80 67 81 60 / 20 10 50 0 MLB 78 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 0 VRB 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 30 0 LEE 79 65 79 55 / 10 20 60 0 SFB 79 66 81 58 / 10 10 50 0 ORL 79 66 81 59 / 20 10 50 0 FPR 80 66 84 62 / 20 10 40 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ570- 572. && $$ |
| #1253266 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1229 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Light rainfall is expected into this evening along and ahead of a cold front. High pressure settles near the eastern Great Lakes Monday in the wake of the cold front. A low pressure system impacts region Tuesday, with a brief period of freezing rain or sleet possible in the Piedmont late Monday night. High pressure returns with dry and cool weather for the middle of the week. Another system potentially impacts the region Friday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 100 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Mainly light rain is expected along an advancing cold front today. Cool temperatures prevail across the Piedmont with milder temperatures in eastern VA and NE NC. - Cold and dry air pushes back into the area tonight behind the cold front. Latest analysis reveals 1024mb high pressure centered offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast. To the north, a potent mid-level shortwave and its attendant surface low was lifting E-NE over southern Ontario into SW QC, with the associated surface cold front extending SSW from the northeast coast into the local area. Weak overrunning moisture (mainly 295-300k isentropic sfcs) continues to lift NE along the front, as it progresses through the region. Swath of showers has increased in areal coverage as it crosses the local area, and likely to categorical PoPs are in place through 10p-midnight EST), with quick clearing thereafter as the front crosses the region and slides offshore late. Winds turn to the NW and then N late tonight post-frontal, ushering colder and drier air back into the region. Overnight lows range from the mid- upper 20s well inland to 30s near the coast, warmest in coastal SE VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Dry and cool Monday. - Widespread rain is expected late Monday night into Tuesday. - Rain may start as a brief wintry mix across far NW portions of the Piedmont late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Mostly sunny and dry Monday as high pressure settles N of the area and the flow aloft becomes (quasi) zonal. Temperatures will be chilly areawide and in the mid-upper 40s. Cold initially Monday evening into the first part of the night with temps dropping in the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, cloud cover will increase substantially after midnight as another system approaches the area, likely allowing temps to level off and rise some. A stronger system, with widespread precip, still remains on track to impact the region later Monday night into Tuesday. Weak low pressure is initially progged to develop along the Gulf coast ahead of an approaching trough Monday night. Widespread precip then moves in later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as favorable ascent downstream of the trough overspreads the region and a strong upper- level jet noses in from the W. The broad low will also be approaching the Southeast coast during this time. The heaviest precip is expected Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon as the low approaches the NC OBX vicinity and deepens to ~1000 mb. Model output still shows a rather robust southerly 850 mb jet, allowing PWATs to increase to ~1.5" across SE VA and NE NC and ~1" for the remainder of the area. Rain then quickly departs later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, as the low pulls away from the coast. There remains moderate to high confidence in a good chunk of the area seeing 1"+ of rain (mainly from I-95 and points E), with some potential for up to 2" in far eastern and southeast VA and NE NC. Most areas should see 0.5" at a minimum. Overall, the progressive nature of this system, along with limited to no instability, should prevent rain totals from being much higher than 1-2". Combined with dry antecedent conditions, the flooding threat is very low. The main forecast uncertainty remains any potential for winter precip issues at onset Tuesday morning. Any winter precip is expected to remain confined to far NW portions of the forecast area where cold air will be able to hang on the longest. Precip may briefly start as snow or a rain/snow mix at the onset, becoming a wintry mix, and then quickly turning over to plain rain as temperatures rise. Little to no accumulation is anticipated. Regarding temps, highs stay in the 40s for most areas, with milder temps (50s to low 60s) across far SE VA and NE NC (where the warm sector may briefly intrude). Becoming very cold Tuesday night with strong cold advection in the wake of the low. Forecast lows are in the lower-mid 20s inland and and upper 20s-lower 30s nearer to the coast. High pressure builds over the region on Wednesday, leading to dry conditions/sunny skies. It will remain cool with temperatures staying in the 40s areawide. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Temperatures moderate slightly on Wednesday ahead of an approaching (dry) cold front. - Another system is expected to impact the region at the end of the week. Widespread precipitation is possible, potentially of the frozen variety. However, confidence is very low in the specific details at this range. Temperatures moderate slightly on Thursday ahead of a (dry) cold front which is forecast to cross the area Thursday afternoon. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s. Another surge of very cold air filters into the area in the wake of the front, with lows dropping back into the 20s for most inland areas (possibly upper teens NW) Thursday night/Friday AM. Another complex system is expected to impact the area Friday into Saturday. The initial evolution could be quite similar to our Tuesday system, but there remains significant run-to-run variability across the model guidance. A more suppressed system, with a low tracking south of the area, could lead to some wintry precip concerns away from the coast. The current model consensus...including the NBM...shows a messy wintry mix for portions of the area Friday into Saturday night. This could entail a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain before changing over to plain rain. Given the wide spread in model/ensemble solutions, confidence still remains low in regards to the evolution of this system/temperatures. Continue to follow the forecast for the latest updates. Precip potentially lingers into the first half of Saturday. Beyond Saturday, there is even lower confidence in the forecast with a blended approach favoring low PoPs and below average temps. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Monday... A cold front has pushed through the area this morning with lingering rain near ORF and ECG. Rain should continue to sag southward over the next few hrs, ending first at ORF by 07z and then ECG by 09z. Have also noted MVFR VSBY within the rain, with localized IFR CIGs near the Albemarle Sound as well. Expect CIGs to quickly lift over the next few hrs as the rain moves out and drier air moves in. Elsewhere, VFR prevails through the period with skies becoming clear this afternoon. Winds become N behind the front this morning and could gust to 20-25 kt at ORF and ECG. Winds trend down later this afternoon and evening. Outlook: The front stalls just south of the local area on Monday, with another system to lift NNE along the front Tue-Wed, bringing a more widespread rain to the region. Flight restrictions are likely as early as late Monday night, continuing through much of Tue/Tue night. VFR conditions return Wed- Thu night. Another system may approach by Friday. && .MARINE... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - Small Craft Advisories are in effect for tonight and Monday behind a cold front. - A developing coastal low pressure system brings hazardous marine conditions Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Solid SCAs are likely, with low-end gales possible. High pressure has moved well offshore, while a deepening low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region this afternoon. The local waters are currently situated in a weaker pressure gradient, with winds of 5-15 kts, with the highest winds being measured across the coastal waters. Waves in the Bay are 1 ft or less, while seas in the coastal waters range between 2-3 ft. The aforementioned low pressure system will continue its NE track, moving through the St. Lawrence Valley tonight and dragging a surface front across our area. Behind the front, winds will quickly shift to the NW and then to the N by Monday. 950mb wind is forecast to reach 25-30kt in the post-frontal CAA surge, with local wind probs showing 80-100% for gusts >=25kt over the coastal waters and 60-80% over the Chesapeake Bay. SCAs remain in effect for the Ches. Bay, lower James, the coastal waters, and Currituck Sound. Seas will build to 4-5 ft (highest out near 20nm) late tonight into Monday morning, with 3-4 ft waves in the Chesapeake Bay late tonight/early Monday morning. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday afternoon/evening, and winds will become NE-E and decrease in response. This decrease in winds will be brief as another low pressure system advances towards the area Monday night. This strengthening low will move across the area Tuesday morning, dragging its associated cold front through the local waters. The low will deepen as it moves offshore Tuesday evening/night. While the pressure gradient will tighten as a result, the strongest winds locally will be associated with the CAA surge on Tuesday night. Local wind probs have remained steady at 60-80% (highest out near 20 nm) and 50-70% in the Middle Chesapeake Bay. With frequent gusts to gale-force forecast for Tuesday night, have decided to put up a Gale Watch for the coastal waters N of the VA/NC border and the Chesapeake Bay. Though the local wind probs are much less in the lower Bay for gusts to 34 kts, the uncertainty in the exact track of the low is what prompted the Gale Watch for the entire Bay as opposed to just the middle Bay. That being said, the Gale Watch may need to be expanded to the NC coastal waters if the track varies from the current forecast. Seas are forecast to build to 5-7 ft, while waves in the Chesapeake Bay are forecast to build to 3-4 ft. High pressure will return to the area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, then will slide offshore Thursday. Another cold front is forecast to move across the coast Thursday night, potentially bringing additional SCA conditions to the area. This front will be followed by yet another low pressure system by the weekend, with continued degraded marine conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ638. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ |
| #1253265 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - Strong flow may create hazardous conditions for small craft over the open Gulf waters mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday. - A high rip current risk is in effect Monday for the Northwest Florida Panhandle beaches, and from Monday night into Tuesday for all beach areas. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 A positively tilted upper trof extending from the 4 Corners region to the northern Plains takes on a meridional orientation before progressing across the eastern states late Monday night into Tuesday evening. An associated surface low is anticipated to develop over the northwest Gulf on Monday then move across the western Florida panhandle Tuesday night (between 03-09Z) before continuing well away from the area. The trajectory of the surface low indicated by the latest guidance tempers the potential for any meaningful instability to be able to lift into the western Florida panhandle. Will continue to monitor, but at this point the potential for strong storms looks low. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Monday, categorical pops for Monday night, then slight chance to chance pops for Tuesday morning. Dry conditions follow for Tuesday afternoon and continue into Wednesday. Another positively tilted upper trof meanwhile evolves from the northern Plains to the 4 Corners region on Wednesday. The upper trof splits with much of the upper trof ejecting off across the northeastern states Wednesday night into Thursday night. The remainder of the upper trof is joined by a Canadian system to form an upper trof extending from the central states into the Baja area by Thursday night. There`s uncertainty with how quickly this upper trof advances eastward and also the potential for the upper trof to weaken substantially. It appears that another surface low looks to take a trajectory similar to what transpired earlier in the week and move across the forecast area roughly on Friday. There is a great deal of uncertainty with how this plays out and will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone with chance to likely pops for Thursday with likely to categorical pops for Friday. Mainly chance pops follow for Saturday, then Sunday looks to be mainly dry except for small pops near the coast. Highs will be near seasonable values on Monday, and Friday through Sunday, and about 5-10 degrees below seasonable values for Tuesday through Friday. Overnight lows trend to well below seasonable values by Tuesday night to range from the mid/upper 20s well inland to the lower/mid 30s at the coast. Lows trend to a bit above seasonable values by Thursday night with near seasonable values expected for Saturday night. A moderate risk is expected today for the Alabama beaches with a high risk for the western Florida panhandle beaches. A high risk of rip currents follows for all beach areas for Monday night into Tuesday, then a moderate risk is expected Tuesday night. A low rip current risk continues for Wednesday and Thursday, then a moderate risk is expected for Friday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 An IFR ceiling prevails overnight then improves to MVFR Monday morning before lowering back to IFR Monday afternoon. Northerly winds will be mostly 5-10 knots overnight then become easterly on Monday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly winds gradually become southeasterly by Monday evening, then switch to the northwest Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a cold front moves through. Will mention Small Craft Should Exercise Caution overnight into early Monday morning for the open Gulf waters, which may need to be extended for the 20-60 nm portion through Monday afternoon. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the open Gulf waters from 9 pm Monday evening into 3 pm Tuesday afternoon. Timing for the Small Craft Advisory may need to be refined on subsequent shifts depending on how quickly the flow increases/subsides. The offshore flow diminishes Tuesday night then becomes more easterly by Thursday. An onshore flow develops Thursday night then switches to the northwest on Friday as another cold front moves through. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 49 65 47 57 / 0 50 100 20 Pensacola 56 68 54 62 / 10 60 90 20 Destin 56 68 57 66 / 20 60 90 40 Evergreen 46 64 46 57 / 0 50 100 20 Waynesboro 41 57 38 49 / 10 50 100 20 Camden 43 59 39 51 / 0 50 100 20 Crestview 51 65 51 63 / 10 60 100 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1253264 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1113 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 - A surface low will approach the area today from the southwest, spreading light to moderate rain across the area. Best timing will be from late morning through around daybreak Tuesday. Area averaged rainfall totals of 0.5-1.5" can be expected, but could see a band of locally greater rainfall totals of 1.5-2+" for NW or central areas. - Much colder air filters into the region following this system, providing another freeze for areas along/north of I-10/12 Wednesday morning. - This active pattern continues going into Thursday and Friday, with another system expected to deliver rain to the area. More details on this system will become clearer over the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Plenty to discuss tonight as we`ve entered a temporary lull between two systems. The first one earlier today produced light showers for a few areas, dissipating towards the east leaving only drizzle behind and since, has turned fully dry across the entire area. Meanwhile, CAA has built into the region following a frontal passage introducing noticeably cooler air to the area. Had to play a little catchup with temperatures earlier as CAA overwhelmed the diurnal curvature late afternoon into the evening, revealing a slight reduction and has since lowered MinT`s towards Monday morning towards the cooler side of guidance (blend of 75th and 50th, deterministic was above the 75th) to follow this trend. Monday starts out cool and cloudy for all areas, while we shift our focus to the southwest at our next system. A subtle impulse crossing the Mexican plateau, coupled with an approaching positive tilt shortwave trough over the central/southern Rockies will support downstream divergence and eventual low-genisis in the western Gulf, riding this low northeast over the remnant frontal boundary during the day on Monday into Monday night. Quite the overall dynamic meteorological setup with a broad low passing generally over out coastal/marine areas, with plenty going on in the meteorological realm. Greatest/strongest 300k isentropic lift/ascent will remain confined near the low and to the east, supporting increasing shower activity spreading inland over coastal MS/AL, meanwhile, overrunning deeper curl-back of H6-H7 isentropic ascent combined with dynamic ascent will support an elevated shield of stratiform precipitation to the northwest. As mentioned for a few days now, the synoptic support for a deformation band to form remains possible somewhere from Lafayette to Hattiesburg, as the RRFS-A continues to depict and now, to a slightly lesser extent, recent HRRR runs. Going through the HREF suite shows a diverse number of solutions representing different banding intensities (NAM Nest and HRW NSSL being the most prominent along with the RRFS-A, with the recent HRRR and ARW/FV3 mix being a bit more "watered down" - no pun intended). Regardless, the more extreme members depict a very noticeable higher QPF corridor, somewhere in the 2-3" range in the corridor mentioned earlier, with more widespread 0.5-1.5" elsewhere. I`m not seeing any distinctly concerning impacts related to this potential band, as rainfall intensities in an elevated stratiform shield should be relatively moderate and over a longer duration, at best. Probably slow enough to allow the ground to soak up some of this water, which we need. We`ll monitor if this band is more intense and is slow in any eastward progression (resulting in training), where flooding could occur but for now, concur with the area- wide marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Additional notes include seeing some 100-200j/KG MUCAPE across the region, could have a rumble of thunder or two but kept the best probabilities/mention of thunder confined closer to the steepest/strongest isentropic ascent near and to the east of the low`s track. Might also get a few strong to locally severe storms in the warm sector or closest to the lift associated with the low. Also, highs during the day on Monday were nudged down due to widespread cloud cover and light stratiform showers building into the region during the morning/afternoon, probably starting as virga as we`ve got quite the dry layer aloft between H7-H5 per the 00Z KLIX RAOB. All rain departs early Tuesday morning to around daybreak Tuesday, becoming lighter with time and CAA/NW winds build into the region. Skies clear out as we get into the late morning/afternoon but still overall chilly with highs primarily in the 50`s with a breezy NW wind. That`ll bring us to Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as the bulk of the continental polar airmass settles into the region supported by a surface high over the northern Gulf. Clear skies and calm winds will support maximized radiational cooling to bring a cold night for all areas. Guidance coming in pretty warm, above the 75th percentile and did add in a nudge down below the 75th, this brings below freezing temperatures along and north of the I-10/12 corridor, where Freeze Warnings will likely be in effect. Not reaching the Southshore yet with upper 30`s to low 40`s. KLG && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday night) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 High pressure builds east of the region during the day on Wednesday, producing a steady E to SE sfc return flow back to the area. The next system is ready to take shape over the southern US/western Gulf in a similar setup to what we`ll see today - a positive tilt trough diving into the central/southern Rockies and a secondary upper-level low over Baja ejecting energy NE across the Mexican Plateau. Build WAA and dynamic ascent in the region will support yet another round of showers Thursday into Friday. Still have some questions on specifics, but will wait for as we get closer but it is looking likely we`ll see another soaker Thursday and Friday. We try to see a brief dry period getting into Saturday, but it looks short-lived as long-range guidance hints at a pretty active quasi-zontal H5 pattern over the US, providing quick-hitting systems to continue. Something to monitor. KLG && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Focus tonight will continue to be low CIGs for almost all terminals, providing IFR to times of LIFR across the region. Could see a brief period of some improvement from 10-14Z this morning, but will be intermittent, potentially providing MVFR at times. The next system approaches the area from the southwest later Monday morning, lasting into the overnight hours. Expecting SHRA for all terminals, causing periodic lower VIS and low CIG`s reducing flight categories. SHRA activity departs after 06Z TUE before being fully out of the area around 12-15Z TUE and NW winds build into the region. KLG && .MARINE... Issued at 1011 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Changes since last update: Added Small Craft Advisory for GMZ575 and 577 in effect through noon Monday. Exercise caution for all waters expect MS sound and Lake Pontchartrain/Maurepas from Noon Monday through 9PM Monday night. New: Small Craft Advisory in effect for all waters 9PM Monday through 3PM Tuesday. Tonight, a recent frontal passage has introduced gusty wind at around 18-22kts from the NE, which will persist overnight into Monday morning ahead of the next developing surface low over the western Gulf. As this low drifts northeast, it`ll cross gulf waters providing a round of heavy rain and thunderstorms primarily from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. In any one storm, waterspouts, winds <34kts and locally higher waves/seas can be expected. As this low passes, confidence on how strong winds will remain outside of thunderstorms remains in question. There is now exercise caution headlines as the low passes, but could be upgraded to advisory if conditions warrant. Then, as the low passes early Tuesday to the NE, strong NW winds will increase across waters at around 15-20kts, with the 2nd round of Advisory headlines in effect. Waves/seas will respond reaching around 5-7ft in this time frame mainly for Gulf waters, 3-5ft for protected waters. High pressure builds into the region mid-week, with winds and waves/seas calming down, but still expecting another system to impact the region Thursday and Friday, with increasing winds and shower/thunderstorm activity expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 41 53 37 49 / 20 90 100 10 BTR 44 59 39 52 / 20 90 100 10 ASD 42 64 42 55 / 10 70 100 10 MSY 51 64 47 56 / 10 70 100 10 GPT 47 64 46 57 / 10 60 100 10 PQL 44 64 46 58 / 10 60 100 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1253263 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1218 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Extreme Drought for Inland Areas. Practice Fire Safety & Check for Local Burn Bans - Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday Morning Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday - Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes - Patchy Frost over Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thursday Mornings && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A fairly dynamic time period from Monday through Tuesday night as a cold front that sweeps through today will stall to the south on Monday, only to be forced northward across our area Mon night. This occurs as a surface low develops in a classic manner across the northwest Gulf Monday, translates east to northeast, gradually deepening as a mid level trough moves eastward through the Midwest and the TN valley. The surface low moves across the deep south Monday night into Tuesday morning, likely moving through GA early Tuesday morning. The low will shift northeastward Tuesday and off the Mid Atlantic/NC Outer Banks Tuesday afternoon. An attendant cold front will move across the region Tuesday from northwest to southeast, ending up just southeast of the area Tuesday evening, and continuing to push south of the area Tuesday night. Considerable cloudy on Monday with an overrunning situation with a chance of showers and areas of rain and a northeast wind flow. The more showery activity may be over the coastal areas initially where a coastal trough is expected to form. As the low level winds veer Monday night, a gradual increase in instability may be realized but probably not until well after midnight, and even then the MUCAPE looks to be only a few hundred J/kg at best. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, some better instability is expected, with a low level flow from the south and southwest. The better instability with MUCAPE of about 300-600 J/kg is south of US Highway 84, but mainly across northeast FL. This overlap of small CAPE but high shear (50-65 kt) may support a strong or even an isolated severe storm with damaging wind or an isolated tornado. Given the limited instability, the severe threat currently remains low. Overall, the best chance of precipitation will be through about Tuesday mid afternoon, with the dynamics lifting out to the northeast by late Tuesday afternoon and the front sweeps through most of the area. For temps, mild conditions on Monday with highs in the 70s over northeast FL, but in more cloud cover and the coolest airmass in southeast GA where highs are limited to the 60s and lower 70s. Mild overnight lows Mon night given the cloud cover and the veering winds. Tuesday, highs again limited to the 60s over well inland southeast GA, and 70s elsewhere. We could reach 80 deg briefly for the southeast most zones Tuesday ahead of the front from Marion to Flagler county. Much cooler Tuesday night as the front moves south of the area on northwest flow, with lows ranging from the mid 30s inland southeast GA, to 40s to near 50 over northeast FL. Rainfall amounts are best over southeast GA at 0.5 to just over 1 inch, and 0.50 inches or less over northeast FL. It`s possible some areas in northeast FL east of Highway 301 may barely measure 0.10 inches, unfortunately, in this current drought situation. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning with weak high pressure dominating north of the region. The next system will be organizing over the southwest U.S. Thursday which may spread mid or high clouds into the area Thursday through Thursday night. The current suite remains basically on track with another frontal system, oriented southwest to northeast, coming across the deep south on Friday and Saturday. Moisture and mid level forcing appears more than sufficient for a good chance of showers on Friday and likely into Saturday with this system. This system may also be accompanied by a surface wave of low pressure along the front over the Gulf Coast on Friday and Saturday. At this time, some small potential for a few thunderstorms over the weekend but confidence remains low, with similar amounts of instability to Tuesday`s forecast. Main takeaway is that fronts will be moving into the area and accompanied by some much needed rainfall for some locations. Latest climate site rainfall deficits since Sept 1st are 6-9 inches at Alma, Jacksonville and Craig Airfield to 3-4 inches at Gainesville. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... VFR conditions with calm and variable winds expected through the morning. By early afternoon, lower ceilings will begin to impact SSI and the Duval sites. After about 00Z Tuesday towards the end of this TAF period, most of the TAF sites (other than SGJ) should see MVFR to IFR ceilings as a stronger front approaches. Rain chances Monday are at 15-20%, so did not include that in the TAFs, storm chances increase after this TAF period on Tuesday. && .MARINE... A cold front will move south southeast across area through Monday. The front will lift back north across area as a warm front Monday night, as an area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the southeastern US, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible beginning Tuesday morning. Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday NE FL High Monday && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak front will move south of the area today with a low chance of passing showers and breezy northeast winds at the coast. This front will then lift back north as a warm front tonight, trailed by increasing south winds and rain chances ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will move across the area Tuesday, brining widespread wetting rainfall to most of southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, with lower rainfall amounts toward north-central Florida. Breezy southwest winds are expected outside of thunderstorm activity Tuesday, mainly across northeast Florida. Rainfall will end Tuesday evening as the front presses south of the area. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday with lower humidity under north winds, but lower dispersion due to weak transport winds. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gusty and erratic winds will occur from thunderstorm activity Tuesday. Some rainfall is expected, but lightning strikes may cause wildfires due to dry fuels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 53 67 34 59 / 80 90 10 0 SSI 59 73 43 61 / 60 70 0 0 JAX 60 77 42 65 / 50 70 0 0 SGJ 64 79 49 66 / 30 50 0 0 GNV 62 79 46 67 / 40 80 0 0 OCF 63 79 49 68 / 30 70 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1253262 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:27 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1220 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will prevail into Monday, and then a storm system will pass through the region late Monday into late Tuesday. High pressure then returns for the middle to end of this week ahead of the next frontal system that could impact the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Early this evening: Surface analysis shows that a cold front sits upstream across north/central GA and the SC Upstate. Radar imagery shows a few showers along the front, primarily impacting the SC Midlands. This front will draw closer to the area this evening and will push through as a backdoor front late tonight as the surface high spreads across the Great Lakes and the OH Valley. Model guidance is in good agreement that the shower activity will dissipate as the front progresses into the area, keeping the forecast dry. The main impact will be the arrival of strengthening north-northeast flow late tonight along with cooler and drier air. Lows are forecast to range from the mid 40s inland to the upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... On Monday, another cold air damming scenario unfolds as surface high pressure builds into the region from the north throughout the day, with the aforementioned cold front being pushed off to our south into northern Florida. This will drop afternoon temperatures back down into the mid 50s to mid 60s, warmest across southeast Georgia. Chances for rainfall remain low throughout the day (<20%), though mostly cloudy skies remain expected with breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Late Monday night, the primary upper trough axis moves over the eastern US as deepening surface low pressure over the deep south begins to ride up the Piedmont. Moisture advection over the still entrenched CAD will likely start widespread drizzle or very light rainfall around or shortly after midnight Monday night. A lingering source of uncertainty with this system is how quickly the CAD will erode as low level WAA increases through the morning hours Tuesday. Greatest precipitation rates will occur after the CAD erodes, with widespread moderate rainfall prevailing after sunrise Tuesday. Hourly rainfall rates will likely remain below 0.25 in/hr, with probs of any given location receiving greater than 1 inch of rainfall within a 6 hour window generally less than 20%. This, combined with very dry antecedent conditions, will keep the flooding threat very low - with the rainfall, which should total 0.5-1.5 in across the area, mainly just beneficial to combat the worsening drought. Chances for rainfall diminish Tuesday evening as the low departs, a cold front crosses the area, and subsidence develops aloft. Post-frontal CAA will be modest as high pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday, with temps 5-10 degrees below normal under mostly sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As the aforementioned surface high pressure moves offshore, temperatures will begin to nudge back to near normal, though likely remaining a few degrees shy in the mid 50s to lower 60s Thursday. An active pattern returns Friday through the weekend as a series of shortwaves cross the eastern US. Significant magnitude and timing uncertainty remains with any individual shortwave, but the overall expectation that a surface front will linger near the area, with periods of precip enhancement/waves within the front impacting the Southeast coast through much of next weekend. At this time, there is strong agreement within the large ensemble systems that any threat for wintry precipitation will remain north and west of our area. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Prior to the 6Z TAFs, the sfc cold front was near KCHS and KJZI, pushing seaward. MVFR ceilings have developed near the front, impacting KCHS until 7Z. In the wake of the front, winds will shift from the northeast and ceilings should remain VFR. During the daylight hours, a sfc ridge will build across the terminals and low pressure organizes near the Mississippi Delta. Isentropic lift and moisture should increase from the south after mid-morning. KSAV is timed to see MVFR ceilings by 17Z, then reaching KJZI and KCHS by 21Z. HREF indicates that the leading edge of a shield of rain will reach KSAV between 3-6Z, highlighted with a PROB30. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR with the arrival of the rain. Rain may reach KCHS and KJZI shortly after 6Z Tuesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: A storm system will bring higher probabilities (50-80%, lowest along the coast) of flight restrictions Monday night into Tuesday, with both low ceilings and lowered vsbys possible in addition to rain showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Tonight: A weak cold front will quickly move from west to east through the coastal waters this evening, shifting offshore overnight. High pressure will then build in from the northwest late. Expect light winds ahead of the front, becoming NNE sustained around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt just before daybreak Monday. Seas will average 3-4 ft. Monday through Thursday: A backdoor cold front will mode down the coast on Monday, bringing occasional 20-25 kt wind gusts midday through the afternoon. Coverage and duration too limited to justify SCAs given the marginal magnitude, but trends will need to continue to be monitored as SCAs possible across all coastal waters if the gradient tightens further. Seas mainly 3-5 ft Monday, though occasional 6 ft seas possible mainly beyond about 15 nm off the SC coast. Monday overnight into Tuesday, a surface low pressure begins to move towards the region, traversing the area on Tuesday. This will bring the highest rainfall chances Tuesday morning, with both showers and isolated thunderstorms possible, decreasing into the evening hours. Winds becomes S as the CAD erodes very early Tuesday morning, with cooler waters limiting mixing in the WAA environment, but breezy conditions still likely. Seas do build and begin to approach/exceed 6 feet again on Tuesday. Thus, small craft advisories may be needed, especially in the offshore Georgia waters where seas approach 8 feet 60nm out. High pressure returns on Wednesday, with conditions improving and no marine hazards expected into the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Chances for minor coastal flooding return with the Tuesday early morning high tide, along the Charleston and Colleton county coast. Astronomical tides will then continue to rise with the morning high tide cycle through Friday and remain elevated through the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed, primarily for the Charleston Harbor tide (Charleston and coastal Colleton counties). && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1253260 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:12 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1207 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 - A high rip current risk continues through Tuesday for the Atlantic beaches. - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Tuesday before drier conditions return for mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Early morning analysis shows a frontal boundary across northern FL with a couple of weak lows along the frontal boundary in the northern Gulf. Locally, moderate easterly flow will continue again today, with the latest HREF showing PWAT values continuing to slowly increase today with values of 1.6-1.8 inches by late in the day. Light winds and mainly clear skies over inland SW FL will result in some patchy fog early this morning, and may be dense in spots west of the lake. Most of the hi-res guidance continues to struggle with precip for today, so going with more of a persistence forecast today with scattered showers throughout the day. While chances will remain for the entire east coast metro, the best signals for persistent coastal convergence showers will be over Palm Beach and northern Broward counties. QPF is another struggle today, but wouldn`t be surprised to see pockets of 0.5-1 inch amounts, while the vast majority of the area will be a quarter inch or less. High temps this afternoon will range from the low to middle 80s. As the complex system shifts to the SE US late tonight into early Tuesday morning, our low level flow will become SSE tonight and eventually SSW during the day on Tuesday. Some widely scattered coastal showers are possible overnight into the early morning hours, with mild lows ranging from the upper 60s around the lake to lower 70s across the east coast metro. With the SSW flow in place on Tuesday, the humidity really ramps up with dewpoints surging into the low to middle 70s and PWAT values around 2 inches. As the frontal boundary starts to approach our area from the NW, plenty of instability will be in place for showers and occasional thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon and early evening hours. High temps Tuesday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 The cold front will cross the area on Wednesday before settling south of the area across the FL Straits. Little moisture will be left by the time the front gets here, so rainfall chances will be fairly low. The front will however bring some slightly cooler and drier air to the region for the remainder of the work-week, with temperatures returning to near normal. As the low level flow turns southerly next weekend, moisture begins to increase the slight chances of rain will return to the forecast. Temps next weekend will also return to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light easterly winds this morning increase to around 10kts after 15Z, with a mid afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. Scattered showers possible across the east coast terminals throughout the day. && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Cautionary easterly winds expected across the local waters today before turning southerly on Tuesday. A brief period of hazardous winds is possible across the Atlantic waters Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf and 2-4 ft in the Atlantic through Tuesday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1205 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025 Moderate easterly flow today will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches. The high risk will remain through Tuesday before conditions improve mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 83 73 84 70 / 10 10 20 0 West Kendall 83 70 85 66 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 83 72 85 68 / 10 10 20 0 Homestead 83 73 84 68 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 81 73 84 68 / 20 10 20 0 N Ft Lauderdale 81 73 85 69 / 20 10 30 0 Pembroke Pines 84 73 86 68 / 20 10 20 0 West Palm Beach 82 72 86 67 / 30 10 30 10 Boca Raton 83 72 86 68 / 30 10 30 10 Naples 85 70 82 67 / 20 0 20 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1253259 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:06 AM 01.Dec.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 * Roller-coaster temperature pattern expected to take place through next weekend. * Another cold front arrives Thursday night into Friday with showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday through Friday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions to persist through at least Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Progressive/changeable weather pattern featuring multiple temperature swings, and another cool front that will bring more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday is expected to take place during the forecast period or through next Monday. Mainly cloudy skies will dominate the week ahead. Through tonight, blustery northerly winds 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph will help to usher in the coldest airmass of the season (since last February). Despite an abundance of cloud cover in place to help with insolation, a full cold air advection regime in place over the region will result in overnight low temperatures falling into the 40s most places (50s along mid to lower valley and the coast). Latest radar scans show most of the rain showers over the Gulf Waters, but through tonight, there could be some lingering vicinity showers/sprinkles around, especially areas near the coast. Mist is also possible to due to residual low level moisture underneath an inversion. Again, this is especially true for areas near the coast. Otherwise, expect for a cool, rain-free, blustery night ahead. Monday through Tuesday night, it still will remain cool though there will be a gradual moderation in temperatures. On Monday daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 50s most places. On Tuesday, daytime highs will struggle to make it out of the 60s. Monday night, overnight lows will fall into the 40s across much of Deep South Texas (50s along the RGV). Tuesday night, lows will be in the 50s most places. There could be a few lingering sprinkles/showers around on Monday, but most areas will remain rain- free under mostly cloudy skies. Warmer than normal temperatures arrive on Wednesday and continue into Thursday as a return flow develops out of the south-southeast. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will climb into the lower 80s along the RGV and 70s across the Northern Ranchlands. Wednesday night, overnight lows will be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Thursday night into Friday, forecast models/ensembles are depicting another cool front that is set to sweep through Deep South Texas and the RGV. Ahead of the cool fropa, some overrunning combined with increased sfc convergence and instability will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and the RGV Thursday into Thursday night. Coverage is expected to be more widespread and showers/thunderstorms more robust than what occurred earlier today. Lingering showers are possible on Friday through Friday night behind the cool fropa. Currently , we have low to medium (20-60%) chance PoPs Thursday-Thursday night with the higher probabilities closer to the coast. Even higher (70-80%) PoPs are expected over the Gulf Waters. Friday-Friday night, we have low to medium (20-40%) chance PoPs for lingering, post-frontal showers with the highest chances again being near the coast. Daytime highs on Friday is progged to be in the 60s most places (lower 70s across parts of the RGV). Temperatures moderate/warm once again Saturday and Sunday. Highs on Saturday will be in the 70s most places and on Tuesday 80s most places. By Monday, highs are expected to be in the 70s most places. Thursday night through Monday night, lows will be in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the RGV Saturday night through Monday night). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Through 06z Tuesday....Latest sfc, satellite, and radar observations depicted an OVC deck of MVFR-IFR stratus clouds with ceilings ranging between 700-2,300 feet AGL with unrestricted visibilities, and VCSH nearby. MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period with cloud coverage and ceilings improving marginally towards the end of the TAF period. VCSH are expected to persist through through tonight before waning on Monday. Blustery north-northwest winds are expected to prevail through tonight with speeds between 10-15 kts or so and gusts between 20-25 kts or so. On Monday, northwest winds will weaken with speeds between 5-12 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 1053 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended to noon CST Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will then take place on Monday. However, another Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday, marine conditons are expected to improve with light to moderate seas and light to moderate winds and seas persisting through Thursday. A cold front pushes through Thursday night into Friday and that could result in more adverse marine conditions developing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 78 52 60 53 / 70 50 20 30 HARLINGEN 75 49 58 49 / 50 40 20 20 MCALLEN 75 51 59 51 / 30 30 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 48 60 50 / 10 40 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 58 64 60 / 80 70 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 51 60 53 / 70 50 30 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
