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| #1261192 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1105 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog are still diminishing from this morning in the Lower Keys, but are expected to fully lift over the next few hours. - A strong high pressure system will spread southeastward off of North America early this week, freshening northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Beginning Monday night, breezy conditions will be possible and marine Cautions and Advisories may be required.. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 A very humid morning continues for the Florida Keys on this first day of March. After some ground truth spotter observations following sunrise, a short fuse Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the Lower and Middle Keys. Visibility dropped to as low as one quarter of a mile at both the Key West International Airport and Key West Naval Air Station ASOS stations. Marathon ended up being just shy of criteria at its worst (three quarters of mile visibility) but that`s still impressive with daylight ongoing. Currently, fog looks to have lifted mostly over the Middle Keys and thinned over the Lower Keys. Key West specifically is still obscured from direct sunlight as fog is keeping visibility at near 1 mile at the airport. Generally light and variable winds observed offshore are helping to preserve the fog, but a broad northeasterly wind direction is starting to take over our eastern stations. Meanwhile, GOES-19 visible imagery notes some low clouds intruding into our southeast Gulf waters from the north, but none of the sea fog from earlier this morning. KBYX radar is free of precipitable echoes despite the low stratocu and some puffy cumulus in the western Straits of Florida, but that could change later this afternoon. Looking directly outside our office windows, blue sky is finally peaking out from above the low stratus and fog. Temperatures along the island chain are currently in the upper 70s to near 80 except for west of Boca Chica where temperatures are much closer to dew points down in the lower 70s. As temperatures rebound towards the forecast high near 80, the remaining fog will dissipate. High pressure building over the southeast US will promote freshening northeasterly winds this afternoon and into tonight. Usually that would mean increased rain chances considering how moist the lower levels of the atmosphere are, but weak upper level forcing along with a very discontinuous wind profile (as observed in both the KKEY and KMFL 12Z soundings) will keep scattered to widespread convection at bay. That being said, if something can develop, particularly near or on mainland south Florida, there is plenty of instability for it to take advantage of. Thus we hold onto a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 The last remnants of the surface trough will move off to the northeast and east today as modest high pressure over the southeastern United States spreads southeastward into Florida. This will result in winds becoming light to gentle northeasterlies. This flow should drop dew points a couple of degrees to slightly below 70. The strengthening breeze and falling dew points, along with day time heating, should steadily eliminate fog potential. A relatively amplified mid latitude trough across the eastern United States will gradually push out to sea over the next 24 hours. Until this clears, ample CAPE and weak moist confluence will continue across our area. While forcing will be weak, and very low inhibition will help to limit activity, convective development cannot be completely ruled out. If a shower forms, it could also amplify into a thunderstorm. For this reason have kept rain chances slight, but also include the possibility for thunderstorms. The forecast becomes more monotonous early this week. An expansive high pressure system will expand southeastward off of the North American coast and take the remainder of the week to lumber off into the Atlantic. This high will further ramp up northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Expect breezy conditions heading into mid week, lasting through the remainder of the week. Breezes will start out east northeast to easterly, and slowly veer east to southeasterly as the core of the high advances further east. The fast flow and ample moisture will be supportive of spats of shower activity. However, this will be held in check by lower to mid level ridging remaining in firm control. Highs will remain near 80 with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Dew points are expected to meander in the upper 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, a weak high pressure system over the southeastern United States will push southeastward across Florida today and tonight as a weak trough pulls out into the Atlantic. As a result, light breezes will pick up moderately out of the northeast. Thereafter, a large and robust high will drive southeastward off of North America into the Atlantic. This will usher in a prolonged period of moderate to fresh breezes across the area through the remainder of the forecast. A mix of cautions and possibly Advisories may be required beginning around Monday Night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Dense fog from earlier this morning has mostly dissipated near both island terminals. However, bouts of LIFR CIG and IFR VIS still impact EYW as fog has been slow to thin there. Continued daytime heating should limit the impacts of these features to the next hour or two especially considering how localized they are. Will continue to keep a TEMPO in EYW`s TAF and amend as needed. Near surface winds will start light and variable, becoming northeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 69 79 69 / 0 20 10 10 Marathon 78 70 78 70 / 10 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261191 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 925 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 High pressure will dominate the upper level pattern for the next few days. Dry conditions will prevail overall through Tuesday. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than average with highs near 80 degrees for most of the week. Otherwise, no major weather concerns for the next few days. Expect a dry and mild few days ahead. There is a low chance (10-20%) of seeing patchy dense fog Monday morning, but looking at the models, it should not be less than a quarter mile for land. So a dense fog advisory was not issued. We will monitor this as we go into the evening hours. MSW && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Wednesday through the end of the week, zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern. Generally, temperatures will be quite warm with highs in the low 80s and even potentially mid 80s by the end of the week. Some popup scattered showers will be expected especially as we head toward Thursday and Friday. These scattered showers and storms will mainly be during peak daytime heating hours (3-6pm) and are not expected to be severe. We don`t expect these storms to be widespread, but if you do get a popup storm Thursday or Friday afternoons, the main threat will be lightning. Looking ahead to next weekend, some models are indicating a frontal system may be moving through the area, which could increase rain chances, but this is highly uncertain and we will see how things develop as we get closer to the end of the week. MSW && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persist through the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will be possible at all area airports throughout the forecast period. MSW && .MARINE... Issued at 913 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Benign conditions will settle over the coastal waters for the rest of the weekend. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through Monday before shifting to a stronger onshore flow starting Tuesday where cautionary headlines may be needed. Low chances of rain return for the offshore waters around mid week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261190 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1004 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key message 1 was updated. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Patchy dense fog until 11 AM this morning. - 2) Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. - 3) Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy dense fog until 11 AM this morning. Patchy dense fog across southeast Georgia and the SC Lowcountry will gradually dissipate through 11 AM this morning. The fog coverage and density should remain the greatest near mainstem rivers, especially the Altamaha, Ogeechee, and Savannah Rivers. The fog may remain locally dense, reducing visibilities on area roadways. Highlighted with a Special Weather Statement. KEY MESSAGE 2: Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. A dry cold front will move south through our area tonight, followed by high pressure wedging in from the north. A building ridge aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will then make for a drastic warm up. This will cause quite a swing in temperatures over the coming days. Temperatures are progged to rise well above normal today, into the mid 70s for most locations (except cooler at the beaches), then remaining a few degrees above normal tonight. The wedge pattern will lead to a drastic temperature gradient across the forecast area on Monday, becoming much cooler for most locations. Highs will range from the mid 50s near the Santee River, to the low 70s near the Altamaha River. Low temperatures on Monday night should be within a few degrees of normal. High temperatures will then rise back above normal on Tuesday, ranging from the lower to middle 70s away from the beaches. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s across most of our area (except cooler at the beaches), and possibly the lower 80s across portions of inland GA south of I-16. KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. The region will be under the influence of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, centered offshore late next week into the weekend. This will set the stage for warming temperatures to continue. There is a fairly small spread in max temperature guidance, with upper 70s to even low 80s likely in most locations away from the immediate coast. Early March normals are in the upper 60s, so these values would be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows will also trend on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Deeper moisture will return to the area with ensemble means indicating PWats climbing to around 1.2", which falls in the 85-90th percentile of climo. While larger scale forcing is lacking, moisture and some instability could lead to isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers developing, especially in the afternoons and into the early evening. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance for >0.25" of rain in any 24 hour period during this time frame. Severe and flooding risk looks minimal at this time. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog is impacting KCHS/KJZI/KSAV to start the 12Z TAF period, with LIFR conditions each terminal. Vsbys will likely remain <1SM for the next couple of hours before improving as the fog dissipates mid-morning. Thereafter VFR is expected to return as skies clear through the remainder of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the terminals Monday. && .MARINE... Dense fog may make a run for the Charleston Harbor early Sunday and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. High pressure will wedge in from the northeast early Monday, pinching the gradient across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been introduced for all marine zones, including the Charleston Harbor, for gusts 25 to 30 kt and building seas of 6 ft or greater. Wind speeds will begin to weaken late Monday night, though seas will be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisories will expire for the nearshore waters within 20 nm first on Tuesday, and then the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Wednesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ330-354. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1261189 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 909 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 904 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected this morning across portions of the region. If traveling, then slow down, use low- beam headlights, and increase your following distance. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of the week with highs reaching the mid 80s. There is a low chance of reaching record high temperatures late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 904 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 No updates to the forecast this morning. Fog is finally lifting and scouring out across the forecast area. The dense fog advisory will be allowed to expire at 10am ET / 9am CT. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Areas of fog this morning are expected to dissipate by mid-morning, leaving mostly sunny skies by afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s for most areas. For tonight, high pressure will continue over the area with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Through the workweek, ridging will build over the eastern US and western Atlantic, keeping any systems away from the area. The shortwaves will tend to go up and around us, though some uncertainty exists in how much influence they will have on our weather, particularly in terms of rain chances. By Thursday and Friday, a few showers and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoons given daytime heating and ample moisture in place with some influence from the sea breeze. The big story will be the temperatures with highs climbing well in to the 80s by mid to late week. This is well above seasonal averages for early March (near 70). There is a low chance of reaching record highs as we close out the upcoming work week into next weekend. Lows likewise will climb into the 50s and eventually 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Fog, at times dense, will continue through about mid-morning today for all terminals. After the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will return with light northeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Winds will become more easterly today into Monday. Nocturnal easterly surges will move across the waters early in the week with fresh breezes expected each night, especially over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. Easterly winds near 20 knots are expected for the waters west of Apalachicola late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Dry weather is expected for the next several days, but relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. Light northeast transport winds are expected today, then becoming east to southeast for early in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 There are no flooding concerns for the next several days. Rainfall amounts with any showers that occur on Thursday and Friday are expected to remain light. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 76 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 57 69 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261188 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:03 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 857 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key message 1 was updated. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM. - 2) Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. - 3) Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM. Observations and webcams show that dense fog was lingering across the forecast area, with several sites reporting vsbys of 1/4 mi along and west of I-95. While the most favorable conditions for dense fog remain west of I-95, the Dense Fog Advisory in effect covers the whole forecast area. GOES Satellite shows that there is still a stubborn pocket of low stratus clouds lingering over the Charleston Tri-County region, but as the stratus erodes fog is expected to develop. Guidance continues to indicate that the fog will become dense across the region and linger into the morning hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. A dry cold front will move south through our area tonight, followed by high pressure wedging in from the north. A building ridge aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will then make for a drastic warm up. This will cause quite a swing in temperatures over the coming days. Temperatures are progged to rise well above normal today, into the mid 70s for most locations (except cooler at the beaches), then remaining a few degrees above normal tonight. The wedge pattern will lead to a drastic temperature gradient across the forecast area on Monday, becoming much cooler for most locations. Highs will range from the mid 50s near the Santee River, to the low 70s near the Altamaha River. Low temperatures on Monday night should be within a few degrees of normal. High temperatures will then rise back above normal on Tuesday, ranging from the lower to middle 70s away from the beaches. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s across most of our area (except cooler at the beaches), and possibly the lower 80s across portions of inland GA south of I-16. KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. The region will be under the influence of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, centered offshore late next week into the weekend. This will set the stage for warming temperatures to continue. There is a fairly small spread in max temperature guidance, with upper 70s to even low 80s likely in most locations away from the immediate coast. Early March normals are in the upper 60s, so these values would be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows will also trend on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Deeper moisture will return to the area with ensemble means indicating PWats climbing to around 1.2", which falls in the 85-90th percentile of climo. While larger scale forcing is lacking, moisture and some instability could lead to isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers developing, especially in the afternoons and into the early evening. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance for >0.25" of rain in any 24 hour period during this time frame. Severe and flooding risk looks minimal at this time. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog is impacting KCHS/KJZI/KSAV to start the 12Z TAF period, with LIFR conditions each terminal. Vsbys will likely remain <1SM for the next couple of hours before improving as the fog dissipates mid-morning. Thereafter VFR is expected to return as skies clear through the remainder of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the terminals Monday. && .MARINE... Dense fog may make a run for the Charleston Harbor early Sunday and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. High pressure will wedge in from the northeast early Monday, pinching the gradient across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been introduced for all marine zones, including the Charleston Harbor, for gusts 25 to 30 kt and building seas of 6 ft or greater. Wind speeds will begin to weaken late Monday night, though seas will be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisories will expire for the nearshore waters within 20 nm first on Tuesday, and then the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Wednesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ330-354. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1261187 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 532 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Dense fog will reduce visibilities and result in hazardous driving conditions through mid morning along and south of the I-10 corridor and along and southeast of I-65. - Above normal temperatures will continue through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Surface high pressure over the area has resulted in clear skies, light winds, and excellent radiational cooling conditions. This pattern favors dense fog development and we are now seeing visibilities starting to fall along with near zero dewpoint depressions over the southern and eastern portions of the area. A dense fog advisory has been issued for these areas, mainly along the coast and also along and southeast of Interstate 65. This will also include area bays and sounds as well as the near coastal marine waters. This fog should gradually erode on Sunday morning but may persist through late morning over portions of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi sound where water temperatures are still relatively cool and will keep the boundary layer stable for longer as compared to nearby land areas where surface heating should increase mixing sooner. Upper level ridging will gradually build eastward from the Plains across the eastern half of the country. Latest ensemble guidance continues to advertise mid level height anomalies that build to between one and two standard deviations above the mean for this time of year. The relatively dry airmass in place along with expected building heights should support a continued warming trend and dry conditions. Temperatures should warm through early next week with highs mainly in the lower 80s, except mid to upper 70s along the immediate coastal areas where there will remain influence from the cooler nearby waters. The dry airmass in place will support larger diurnal swings with lows mainly in the 50s through the first part of the week. There will likely be the potential for additional overnight fog as similar and favorable conditions remain in place into at least early next week. As upper level troughing develops over the western states and high pressure remains strong east of the Mississippi River, the surface pressure gradient should tighten and result in breezy conditions developing towards the middle of next week, especially over the open Gulf waters. This increased and persistent southwesterly flow should lead to building swell and surf. Spring tide conditions combined with the increased wave heights and swell should lead to a high threat of rip currents by Tuesday which may continue through a good portion of next week. Despite pleasant weather conditions at area beaches, visitors and residents will likely need to remain out of the water as deadly rip currents are expected along with surf heights potentially approaching surf advisory level conditions. This will be monitored closely and we will enhance rip current hazard messaging if this trend continues as expected. Surface high pressure will shift eastward into the southwestern Atlantic which will allow for a return of southeasterly to southerly flow and northward advection of deeper Gulf moisture. Dewpoints should increase into the 60s for the second half of the week along with the return of near to above average PWATs. Despite the increased moisture, rain chances should remain limited as the upper ridge holds on over the area. By the end of the week, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as instability builds and mid level ridging weakens. This will continue into the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remaining in the forecast with the greatest storm coverage over southeastern Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama as this area is glanced by weak mid level shortwaves embedded within southwesterly flow aloft. The upper ridge although weakened should keep storm chances lower across the remainder of the region. Warm temperatures along with increased humidity will keep highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Coastal temperatures should not be as cool later next week into next weekend as the extended stretch of warm weather should allow for nearshore coastal waters to gradually warm as well. With the increasing dewpoints and low level moisture we will need to monitor for sea fog potential, although with the warming waters and unstable airmass it may be difficult for sea fog to develop. This will be something to watch over the coming week. Low temperatures will warm for the second half of next week into next weekend with lows mainly in the 60s. /JLH && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Patchy to areas of fog, locally dense, with visibility and ceilings as low as LIFR and even VLIFR flight category, will lift through mid-morning with flight category improving back to VFR for the day Sunday. Winds will remain light and variable. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 light easterly to northeasterly flow today will become southeast and gradually increase in intensity on Monday. Moderate to strong southeasterly flow is anticipated late Monday night into Tuesday. Moderate southeasterly flow then continues the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 77 50 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 54 72 60 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 71 55 71 58 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 78 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 78 49 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 78 50 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 78 48 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ055>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>632. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ633>636- 650-655. && $$ |
| #1261186 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:39 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 637 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - High risk of rip currents today at Volusia and northern Brevard County beaches; entering the surf is discouraged - Mostly dry today with a few showers brushing the coast, mainly south of Cape Canaveral - Warming trend with above normal temperatures this week, in addition to isolated onshore-moving showers && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Today-Tonight...The cold front that moved through yesterday is now settling across south Florida. Temperatures locally (at 1 AM) are in the upper 50s to mid 60s as a blanket of low clouds sits over the area. This cloud cover should help us stay slightly milder than we otherwise would be under a clear sky, but sunrise temps are still forecast to range from the mid 50s to low 60s (warmest south). Drier air slowly works south today behind the front, helping to clear out some of the morning clouds. More clouds will linger closer to the coast and across the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee region than anywhere else. Isolated showers may develop over the Atlantic and make a close pass to the Treasure Coast; however, rain amounts will remain very light (generally under 0.05-0.10"). Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s areawide, generally reaching near normal values for the 1st of March. Overnight lows sink into the 50s to mid 60s once again, similar to this morning but with less cloud cover. As onshore flow takes hold, surf conditions will deteriorate at our northern beaches. Thus, a high risk of rip currents is in place today for Volusia and northern Brevard County beaches. Entering the water is discouraged there. South of Cape Canaveral, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Monday-Saturday...The center of an expansive high pressure system will move from the Northeast U.S. Monday to the north-central Atlantic for the remainder of the week. Florida remains on the western periphery of surface high pressure most of the week into next weekend, allowing for a persistent period of onshore winds. Winds may be breezy to gusty at times, especially along the intracoastal and barrier islands. The 500mb ridge axis reaches the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and generally stays in place over Florida and the nearby Atlantic into next weekend. Drier air looks to stick around through Monday before PW values increase areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. Model soundings show a continued dryness above 700-500mb this week, suggesting that buildup of moisture will be confined to the lowest 1-1.5 km. Light QPF has been persistent in the models this week, indicating at least isolated chances for showers over the local Atlantic pushing toward the coast. Some of these showers could make it farther inland, particularly during the daylight hours. Thus, we continue to carry a 20-35 percent chance of showers (up to 45 percent at the coast Tuesday). Temperatures trend higher each day, starting with the mid 70s to low 80s for highs Monday and reaching the low 80s (coast) to upper 80s (inland) by week`s end. The coolest night looks to be Monday night (upper 50s/mid 60s) before most locations settle into the 60s each night for the rest of the week. Looking farther ahead, CPC`s 8-14 Day Outlook shows that the above normal temperature pattern is likely to continue (70-80% chance of above normal temps). That being said, the prospects for measurable rainfall over the next 7-14 days do not look great. Recent rains were a welcome sight for many, but the current drought conditions are likely to continue through the first half of the month. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions continue today with north- northeast winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet (up to 5 feet offshore). Winds turn onshore and freshen slightly from Monday onward, notably across the offshore and Gulf Stream waters. Poor to hazardous boating conditions return for a time, beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through at least Wednesday. Seas build to a peak of 6 to 9 feet by Monday night into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed, starting Monday and lasting through at least the middle part of the week. Onshore-moving showers are possible (25-50% chance) each day, and low confidence exists for an isolated lightning storm (mainly south of Sebastian Inlet). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 632 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning across ECFL terminals. Some terminals are having MVFR/IFR VIS reductions as well this morning. Have included TEMPOs for those VIS reductions through 13Z. North to northeast winds 5-10 knots early this morning will turn NE and increase to 10-14KT with 15-20 KT gusts along the coast by mid morning. Winds are then forecast to become light once again overnight. CIGs are forecast to gradually improve to VFR at all terminals later this morning between 15Z-17Z and remain through the rest of the TAF period. NE winds Monday will increase to 10-13 KT by mid morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Drier air gradually works overhead today into Monday as the influence of high pressure settles over the area. Surface winds turn northeasterly today, then more easterly from Monday onward. Gusts each afternoon, especially as the sea breeze develops, could reach 20-25 mph at times. Onshore-moving showers (20-40% chance) are possible each day, especially from Tuesday onward. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast through mid week. Largely dry conditions and above normal temperatures are the main story for much of this week into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 56 76 60 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 76 61 77 63 / 10 10 20 30 VRB 77 61 78 63 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 78 55 80 60 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 76 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 77 58 80 62 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 77 61 78 62 / 20 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1261185 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 625 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. - 2) Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. - 3) Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. Observations and webcams show that dense fog is developing across the forecast area, with several sites reporting vsbys of 1/4 mi along and west of I-95. While the most favorable conditions for dense fog remain west of I-95, the Dense Fog Advisory in effect covers the whole forecast area. GOES Satellite shows that there is still a stubborn pocket of low stratus clouds lingering over the Charleston Tri- County region, but as the stratus erodes fog is expected to develop. Guidance continues to indicate that the fog will become dense across the region and linger into the morning hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. A dry cold front will move south through our area tonight, followed by high pressure wedging in from the north. A building ridge aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will then make for a drastic warm up. This will cause quite a swing in temperatures over the coming days. Temperatures are progged to rise well above normal today, into the mid 70s for most locations (except cooler at the beaches), then remaining a few degrees above normal tonight. The wedge pattern will lead to a drastic temperature gradient across the forecast area on Monday, becoming much cooler for most locations. Highs will range from the mid 50s near the Santee River, to the low 70s near the Altamaha River. Low temperatures on Monday night should be within a few degrees of normal. High temperatures will then rise back above normal on Tuesday, ranging from the lower to middle 70s away from the beaches. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s across most of our area (except cooler at the beaches), and possibly the lower 80s across portions of inland GA south of I-16. KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. The region will be under the influence of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, centered offshore late next week into the weekend. This will set the stage for warming temperatures to continue. There is a fairly small spread in max temperature guidance, with upper 70s to even low 80s likely in most locations away from the immediate coast. Early March normals are in the upper 60s, so these values would be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows will also trend on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Deeper moisture will return to the area with ensemble means indicating PWats climbing to around 1.2", which falls in the 85-90th percentile of climo. While larger scale forcing is lacking, moisture and some instability could lead to isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers developing, especially in the afternoons and into the early evening. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance for >0.25" of rain in any 24 hour period during this time frame. Severe and flooding risk looks minimal at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Fog is impacting KCHS/KJZI/KSAV to start the 12Z TAF period, with LIFR conditions each terminal. Vsbys will likely remain <1SM for the next couple of hours before improving as the fog dissipates mid-morning. Thereafter VFR is expected to return as skies clear through the remainder of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the terminals Monday. && .MARINE... Dense fog may make a run for the Charleston Harbor early Sunday and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. High pressure will wedge in from the northeast early Monday, pinching the gradient across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been introduced for all marine zones, including the Charleston Harbor, for gusts 25 to 30 kt and building seas of 6 ft or greater. Wind speeds will begin to weaken late Monday night, though seas will be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisories will expire for the nearshore waters within 20 nm first on Tuesday, and then the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Wednesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ330-354. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1261184 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 521 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. - Increasing rain chances mid week and next weekend? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Light patchy morning fog will give way to partly cloudy skies by early afternoon. Late night and early morning fog will be possible at times through the period. However, winds will be elevated keeping the airmass mixed, thus patchy fog and visibilities generally above 4SM. Otherwise, unseasonably warm conditions will continue into next week with temperatures remaining around 10-15 degrees above normal. Rain chances will remain very low through Tuesday due to a mid to upper level high pressure system over Mexico. Models have been consistent with the high pressure shifting east Monday through Tuesday as a deepening upper low moves southeastward from the Pacific NW. This will result in a southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves tracking across the region. A moderate to strong low level jet will usher deeper moisture into S TX with PWATs increasing to 1.2-1.5 inches by mid week. The deeper moisture, moderate instability, and a mid level short wave will be conducive for convective development, leading to a low to medium (20-30%) chance of rain by the middle of next week. Rain fall amounts are expected to less than 0.10 of an inch across the northern portions of S TX. Models are showing another potential for rain next weekend. The question is, will the cap be too strong for any rain? && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Current flight conditions vary across the area early this morning with VCT and CRP maintaining IFR conditions, COT and LRD at MVFR and ALI recently breaking to VFR, but could certainly return to MVFR. All of these will persist for a few more hours before VFR conditions return by mid morning. Expect more low CIGS tonight, but feel that fog will generally be limited again with elevated winds above the surface. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A moderate (BF 4) breeze will continue into early next week. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week. There is a 10-20% chance of showers Monday through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds through Monday. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by next Tuesday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. Chances for rain will be low through next Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 81 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 89 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 76 68 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261183 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:24 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 617 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 611 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Patchy dense fog possible early this morning, mainly across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida. - Smoke from wildfire activity may create dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 today. - Increasing northeasterly flow early next week will lead to an increased rip current risk and potentially hazardous marine conditions across Atlantic waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 A decaying frontal boundary sits over the South Florida region early this morning and will remain across the area as it continues to fizzle out. This will lead to a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms periodically throughout today and tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will be maximized during the afternoon hours with peak diurnal heating, although coastal showers will be possible through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday as well. On Monday, the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten as surface high pressure becomes established across the Southeast CONUS. This will lead to breezier northeast winds beginning late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, especially for the immediate east coast. High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s with lows in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Breezy northeast flow continues through at least mid-week as the surface pressure gradient remains tight. There will be a chance (30- 40%) for showers each day through the period as ample moisture remains with highest chances across local Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast due to the breezier east-northeast flow. Surface flow veers more easterly towards the end of the week as surface high pressure across the western Atlantic builds westward. High temperatures should remain in the low 80s for east coast metro areas, however due to the long duration easterly flow, a warming trend is expected for interior and Southwest Florida and highs could approach the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work-week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Generally VFR for the period. Lingering low clouds and a few SHRA/TS around KPBI may result in lower CIGs for a couple more hours, but then this deck will clear out. By 15-16Z, winds increase out of the NE to around 10 kts for the day. Thunderstorms develop around eastern terminals between 17-18Z with scattered SHRA possible tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all local waters through the remainder of the weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Low risk for rip currents across all local beaches today, however the risk is poised to increase early next week as breezy northeasterly flow develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 68 79 70 / 50 30 30 30 West Kendall 84 64 82 65 / 50 30 30 30 Opa-Locka 83 67 81 68 / 50 30 30 30 Homestead 83 68 80 69 / 50 30 30 30 Fort Lauderdale 79 68 77 68 / 60 30 30 40 N Ft Lauderdale 79 68 78 69 / 60 40 30 30 Pembroke Pines 83 68 81 68 / 60 30 30 30 West Palm Beach 78 67 77 68 / 60 30 20 30 Boca Raton 79 67 79 68 / 60 40 30 40 Naples 82 64 83 65 / 30 20 40 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261182 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 510 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 506 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Key Messages - Mainly dry weather and breezy to windy conditions continue to lead to some fire weather concerns each afternoon. - Temperatures warm to near 10-15 degrees above average by the middle of this upcoming week. - Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely by the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Much of the forecast for Deep South Texas into next weekend remains the same as previous updates, with mostly dry weather along with breezy to windy southeasterly winds, leading to some fire weather concerns each afternoon. Ridging aloft continues into the beginning of next week and weak mid-level disturbances embedded within the subtropical jet result in a slightly tightened pressure gradient across the CWA Sunday and Monday, with afternoon gusts up to around 20-25 mph possible. The gradient tightens further by Tuesday, increasing afternoon gusts up to 20-30 mph, or greater, into the remainder into the later parts of the week as troughing aloft develops surface low pressure systems passing over the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and over the Northern Plains on Thursday. There may be a brief break to this pattern next weekend with the possibility of increased rain chances as recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF portray a stronger mid/upper level deepening over the western US. As freeze-cured fuels remain abundant within the moderate-severe drought across the region, there are some fire weather concerns each afternoon, especially over western portions of the Brush Country and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Yet, concerns are limited and Fire Danger Statement conditions are likely to be borderline as 20 foot winds are be a bit too weak through Monday afternoon while increasing onshore southeasterly winds result in slightly elevated relative humidity values by Tuesday afternoon. However, will continue to monitor as forecast elements may change. Regardless, refraining from outdoor burning and being very cautious of flames are strongly recommended. A slight warming trend brings temperatures to about 10-15 degrees above average by Tuesday, with highs in the 90s further west gradually expanding eastward to as far east as I-69 E, perhaps even approaching coastal areas later in the week. Inland areas further east rise to the mid/upper 80s while temperatures along the immediate Gulf coast reach into the mid 70s. Overnight temperatures fall to the 60s region-wide, possibly warming to near 70 F across portions of the RGV by Tuesday night. A low risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon. Risks are likely to increase by the middle of the week as southeasterly winds enhance. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 Any remaining MVFR ceilings are expected to lift shortly after daybreak, with VFR conditions generally prevailing through the remainder of the TAF period. Southeasterly winds may gust occasionally to 20-25 kts this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) continue through Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely each afternoon beginning Tuesday, particularly across the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf Waters (0-20 NM), where a locally enhanced pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh winds along with moderate (3-6 feet) seas over the Gulf Waters (0-60 NM). There is a low (15-30%) chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday and possibly a low to medium (20-40%) chance next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 83 66 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 63 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 77 69 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261180 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 613 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to cover the entire forecast area. Use caution during the morning commute. Updated 12Z TAF aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Low visibilities less than a quarter mile will lead to dangerous driving conditions through the morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued. Drivers should slow down and use fog lights if available. - 2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. - 3) Cold Air Damming Wedge Creates Chilly Start to the Week. - 4) Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Low visibilities less than a quarter mile will lead to dangerous driving conditions through this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued. Drivers should slow down and use fog lights if available. Visibilities have gone down rapidly tonight, quicker than guidance suggested, mainly over NE SC. Based on the pattern, these lower visibilities should expand towards the NE SC coast overnight as the low clouds there continue to erode. All our NE SC counties as well as Robeson County have been added to a Dense Fog Advisory. Elsewhere, patchy fog could reduce visibility to 1 mile or less, but any dense fog should be brief. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. See the Marine section below for more detail. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Cold Air Damming Wedge Creates Chilly Start to the Week. CAD wedge is firmly in place Monday, where temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for early March. Wedge looks to have a greater influence across the Pee Dee region into the NC coastal plain, where temperatures may struggle to hit 50 Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, southern portions of the Grand Strand may capture more of a marine influence and have a chance to get up into the mid-to-upper 50s. Wedge starts to break down Tuesday, as upper level energy aloft pushes the surface high offshore of New England. While this does help break up the setup, it`s not a classic erosion of the wedge, like what a cold front would be capable of. Still afraid that the temperature forecast could bust here. Forecast shows highs in the low-to-mid 60s Tuesday, but there is a handful of data to suggest that we may never leave the 50s. Will have to monitor this more over the next few forecast cycles. .KEY MESSAGE 4...Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long. Better forcing comes into play Tuesday night, eroding the wedge for good this time. Suddenly, there is good vertical continuity in offshore ridging, accompanied with an old friend in the Bermuda high. Very warm temps on the way, easily going up into the mid-to- upper 70s Wednesday. This warmth is here to stick around through the rest of the week, giving the inland locales a chance to hit 80 degrees just about everyday from Thursday onward. Subsidence still appears to inhibit convection opportunities Thursday, but that appears to weaken more each day Friday through Sunday. Thermal profiles aren`t that impressive with the lack of a larger synoptic setup, but there is enough heat to spark some instability. Enter the chances for scattered storms in the afternoon in typical spring/summer fashion. Pulse storms will be aided by the seabreeze, sponsored by healthy differential heating between land and sea. Get ready for the pollen pods to start opening up... && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... All terminals will be battling dense fog through 14-15Z, slower to erode away from the coast. Light west winds today becoming calm after sunset before a cold front crashes through from the north. Expect a sharp shift in winds from W/SW to the NE from 00-06Z. This will be accompanied by an increase in wind speeds to ~10 kts with gusts ~20 kts and at least MVFR CIGs. Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely through midweek under a ridging high with VFR predominant through the latter half of the week amidst low rain chances. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions during the day before a backdoor cold front drops down from the north late this evening. Winds will change from SW to NE rapidly with speeds increasing from ~8 kts to 15-20 kts. +25 kt gusts and 6 footers have lead to a Small Craft Advisory over our coastal waters through the end of the period and beyond. Monday through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory in effect across all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 2 AM EST Wednesday. Stiff northeasterly winds grip the waters Monday in a classic cold air damming wedge. Wouldn`t be surprised to see winds gust up to 30 kts at times, with seas at 4-6 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm from shore. Gradient loosens Tuesday, as the wedge very slowly tries to break. Winds veer slightly to the ESE Tuesday afternoon, coming down to 5-10 kts. Seas are slow to react, but eventually come down below advisory thresholds Tuesday night. Winds continue to veer southeasterly and then southerly through Thursday, pumping warm air through the area. Seas linger right at 3-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1261181 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 606 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 603 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected this morning across portions of the region. If traveling, then slow down, use low- beam headlights, and increase your following distance. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of the week with highs reaching the mid 80s. There is a low chance of reaching record high temperatures late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Areas of fog this morning are expected to dissipate by mid-morning, leaving mostly sunny skies by afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s for most areas. For tonight, high pressure will continue over the area with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Through the workweek, ridging will build over the eastern US and western Atlantic, keeping any systems away from the area. The shortwaves will tend to go up and around us, though some uncertainty exists in how much influence they will have on our weather, particularly in terms of rain chances. By Thursday and Friday, a few showers and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoons given daytime heating and ample moisture in place with some influence from the sea breeze. The big story will be the temperatures with highs climbing well in to the 80s by mid to late week. This is well above seasonal averages for early March (near 70). There is a low chance of reaching record highs as we close out the upcoming work week into next weekend. Lows likewise will climb into the 50s and eventually 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Fog, at times dense, will continue through about mid-morning today for all terminals. After the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will return with light northeasterly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Winds will become more easterly today into Monday. Nocturnal easterly surges will move across the waters early in the week with fresh breezes expected each night, especially over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. Easterly winds near 20 knots are expected for the waters west of Apalachicola late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Dry weather is expected for the next several days, but relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. Light northeast transport winds are expected today, then becoming east to southeast for early in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 There are no flooding concerns for the next several days. Rainfall amounts with any showers that occur on Thursday and Friday are expected to remain light. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 76 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 57 69 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-326-426. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261179 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 504 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend, especially in the coastal areas. - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of next week. - Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Another night of patchy fog is expected for portions of SE Texas tonight into Sunday morning, with the potential for dense fog developing along the coast and along/east of I-45. Observations as of 11pm has widespread reports of hazy conditions (2-6mi) visibilities, but expecting some dense fog to develop within the next few hours - again mostly along the coast and for areas along and east of I-45. Fog that does develop will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise giving way to mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low 80s for Sunday afternoon. Another night of patchy fog is possible Sunday night into Monday, but SREF and HREF probabilities of dense fog are much lower compared to the past few nights. The abnormally warm weather will continue through the workweek as upper-level ridging moves in Monday into Tuesday, and then replaced by southwesterly flow aloft Wednesday through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s through the workweek (with some spots potentially rising into the upper 80s by the end of the week). Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s by midweek, and then upper 60s to potentially low 70s by week`s end (which will be approaching the normal high temperature for this time of year). For the first time in awhile, we actually have some chances to see some rainfall across SE Texas this week. The first chance will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest, then stalls to the northwest of the region. While the best dynamics appear to stay to the northwest of our area, a combination of daytime heating, passing weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft, and PWATs rising to 1.3-1.5" ahead of the front may lead to scattered showers in portions of SE Texas on Wednesday. PoPs continue for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods on Thursday as the stalled front lingers before retreating back to the north. The next chance for rain will be over the weekend as the next cold front approaches from northwest. At this time, there is higher uncertainty with this front on how far south it makes it before stalling. It may stall in a similar position to Wednesday`s front, but could sag further south in SE Texas and thus increasing rainfall chances. We appear to be in a similar upper-level pattern as we head into the second week of March, so I`d expect us to see continued warm/humid conditions and chances of rainfall. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 449 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 IFR-MVFR ceilings will continue across SE TX sites through around 14-15Z. Reduced visibilities due to areas of patchy fog will also continue through around 15Z. Quickly after, clouds will lift and scatter out and fog will burn off. The pressure gradient will tighten today and a 25-30 KT llvl jet will develop, leading to stronger winds. Expect SE winds to increase to 10-15 KTS with gusts of 18-23 KTS this afternoon. Winds will relax to around 10 KTS in the evening and to around 5 KTS late tonight into early Mon morning. IFR ceilings will once again be possible starting late Sun night and with the lighter winds, there is a chance for areas of fog to develop early Mon morning. Cotto && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Main forecast concern through Monday will be the potential for patchy, dense fog developing nightly. As of 11pm, webcams and satellite imagery are showing some hazy conditions, but the expectation is that areas of dense fog will likely develop in Galveston Bay and our northern coastal waters through the night. We are not expecting as widespread dense fog like the past couple of nights, but mariners should keep weather aware and use safe boating practices if you encounter dense fog. Any fog that does develop is expected to dissipate by the mid-morning hours. Some patchy fog is possible again Sunday night night into Monday, but the daytime heating on Sunday will warm SSTs, and thus likely limiting sea fog development even more. Otherwise, expect continued low seas and light onshore winds through the next several days. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 58 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 81 61 82 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 63 74 64 / 0 0 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ200-214- 236>238-300-313-335>338-438-439. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355. && $$ |
| #1261177 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 611 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Duplin and Onslow Counties this morning. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded, now including all marine zones except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers. Gale chances have gone down with this update. Brought temperatures down 5-10F Monday given the expected cold air damming setup. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for brief scattered showers Sunday evening. 2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft. 3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures. 4) Dense fog will remain a risk through about mid-morning today. Marine...Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night and Monday with the potential for infrequent gale-force gusts south of Cape Hatteras. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient today with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for scattered showers, so slight chance to chance PoPs have been maintained with this forecast update. Lack of instability and weaker upper level support should keep us thunder free along this front. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient with high building in will bring a surge of breezy conditions with wind gusts 20-25 mph inland tonight, increasing to 25-35 mph along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night`s front paired with the cold air damming setup will let overcast skies linger and keep temperatures cooler on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s for most, increasing to around 50 for coastal locales. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. While the GFS is still holding onto snow chances at the NC/VA border, this is not expected to extend south into our county warning area. KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week as a surface high sits offshore late week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there`s potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons Friday onwards. KEY MESSAGE 4...Areas of dense fog continue to impact parts of ENC this morning. This is due to a combination of locally grown fog (radiational cooling effects) and fog advecting in from the SW. The most widespread, and impactful, fog is expected to be confined to Duplin and Onslow Counties. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 800 AM this morning to account for this impact. Elsewhere, webcams and satellite imagery suggest the fog is more patchy in nature, and this risk area was covered with a Special Weather Statement through 800 AM. Fog should mix out by 8-10 AM this morning. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Satellite imagery shows an area of more widespread, and impactful, FG moving into southwestern sections of ENC at this time. This FG has been impacting KOAJ, while the remainder of the TAF sites have been contending more with shallow FG (MIFG) vs a deeper, more impactful FG. Conditions should gradually improve after 12-13z, with VFR conditions expected by the afternoon hours. A cold front will move south through ENC this afternoon and evening (20z-03z timeframe). A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front, and there may be just enough lift and moisture to support a risk of SHRA. The TSRA risk isn`t zero, but continues to look low (<10% chance). A notable N to NE wind shift is expected along the front, with occasional gusts up to 20kt possible. Outlook: Behind Sunday`s front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Light W/NW winds early this morning thanks to a high sitting over the southeast. Today will have pleasant boating conditions until the evening when a cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, wind gusts 25-34 knots will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours through Monday. There is potential for infrequent gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras behind the front, but confidence is increasing in primarily sub-34 knot gusts given a slightly weaker wind gust trend in models. EPS is still giving high gale force probs (70%) for this region so it can`t be completely ruled out, but this seems to be the outlier when compared with other deterministic and ensemble based models. With a favorable N/NE wind direction and high HREF/REFS probs, have expanded the SCA to include most remain inland sounds/rivers with the exception of the Pamlico/Pungo River. RAP is suggesting the Pamlico/Pungo river area to see the tightest pressure gradient of the region behind the front, so despite the unfavorable NE wind direction infrequent gusts up to 25 knots are not out of the question for a brief period tonight. Seas are expected to build in response to the strong NE winds, increasing to 5-8 ft Monday night and 6-9 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will be on their way down Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night. Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have pleasant boating conditions with winds and seas remaining below 25 knots as winds switch to become more southerly with high shifting offshore. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ090-198- 199. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1261178 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 605 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast today, with an arctic front expected to bring light snow showers today, and very cold air on Monday. Growing confidence in a wintry mix late Tuesday, but the timing of precipitation type and accumulations remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch. -Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. -A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. -Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch An arctic cold front will traverse the region today, bringing a brief round of light snow showers. With limited moisture and upper- level forcing staying confined to northern New England, accumulation will be limited. Guidance has come into much greater agreement on snow totals, from a dusting to 1 inch. The areas with the best chance of an inch will be across the western interior, where 850 mb FGEN will be strongest. The line of snow showers will weaken as it approaches the coast. Snow moves west to east today, entering the Berkshires around 8-9 am and dissipating offshore between 2-3 pm. Snowfall rates will be light, well under 0.5 inches per hour. Key Message 2...Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. Despite today being the first day of meteorological spring, Mother Nature did not get the memo. The Arctic front will usher in another round of very cold temperatures starting Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday morning. 850 mb temps bottom out at -16C Monday morning, with the 510 thickness line nearly reaching Southern New England. This will result in low temperatures Monday morning in the low single digits, possibly below zero in NW MA. With a little leftover wind from the arctic front overnight, the wind chill index will be below zero Monday morning, possibly approaching -10 across the interior. Despite the strong March sun angle, high temperatures will stay below freezing on Monday with a wind chill index in the low 20s. 850mb temperatures begin to warm overnight Monday; however, strong radiational cooling under calm winds and clear skies will allow low temperatures to bottom out in the low teens to high single digits Tuesday morning. Key Message 3...A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance continues to advertise a weak area of low pressure traversing through the region sometime late Tuesday. The accompanying warm front will bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for Tuesday; however, there will be enough residual cold air to lead to a wintry mix of precipitation. Precipitation likely starts out as snow before switching over to freezing rain, then rain. Timing out of these p-type changes is highly uncertain and likely wont be resolved until were within 48 hours with hi-res guidance available. Snow and freezing rain accumulations will remain highly uncertain until the timing of p- type can be nailed down. Key Message 4...Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. The active weather pattern continues through the end of the work week as the zonal jet stream and stalled frontal boundary send several weak waves of shortwave energy into southern New England. Temperatures starting Wednesday are expected to rise well above normal, with highs approaching the 50s and overnight lows even staying near or above freezing. This will help keep any precipitation that falls during the end of the week as rain. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. VFR ahead of a line of light snow moving west to east this morning between 14z-19z, 17-20z for the Cape and Islands. MVFR CIGS expected to accompany the light snow. VFR behind the snow with gusty NW winds around 20 knots. Sunday Night through Monday...Moderate Confidence. Conditions return to VFR after the -SN moves offshore. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 15-16z and departing 19-20z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 14-15z and departing 17-18z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA, chance FZRA, slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA, SN, chance FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, chance FZRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Morning...High confidence. Northerly winds begin to increase to near 25 knots tonight into Monday morning, with seas building to 5 feet across the outer waters where SCA`s have been issued. Chance of light to moderate freezing spray across the inner waters Monday night into late Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain likely. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1261176 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 558 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas to Widespread Dense Fog This Morning. Southeast GA and portions of NE FL. Nightly, Localized Dense Fog Possible Each Morning This Week - Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and - Record High Temperatures Later This Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT: - Localized dense fog this morning, and again Monday Morning After areas of fog and low clouds this morning, especially inland, generally weak high pressure will be the primary feature throughout today tonight as well before changes come with a backdoor front and reinforcing ridge on Monday. As for today, more sunshine than clouds will be expected area wide, with only some scattered lower clouds closer to the coast and over southern areas with an onshore flow around 10-15 mph, only around 5-10 mph on average inland. Highs will be a bit warmer today thanks to the weaker flow, except near the coast. Mid to upper 70s will be common inland, with mid 60s to the low 70s more c common closer to the coast & St. Johns River. Some higher clouds will move into the region later this evening and into tonight, which will have a bit of an effect on both fog and low stratus potential as well as amount of radiational cooling, but not significantly. Still expecting some lower clouds to spread inland from northeast to southwest tonight, with some patchy to areas of fog mainly inland where calmer winds occur. Min temps will be generally in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s by the coast and St. Johns River Basin. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Patchy Morning Fog Possible - Breezy Coastal Winds - Slight Chance of Coastal Showers Tuesday Upper level flow will flatten out as the broader pattern aloft begins to transition on Monday. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure pushing off the New England coast will push a backdoor cold front into the area through Monday. A northeasterly wind surge will bring an uptick in coastal winds through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Winds will begin to relax through Monday night as the high pressure shifts farther away into the north Atlantic. Prevailing flow will turn onshore, leading to the development of coastal trough which may direct some showers into the NE FL beaches through Tuesday afternoon. Some upper level moisture (aka clouds) moving across SE GA early Monday and Tuesday morning could lessen the fog extent or development there, favoring areas across NE FL where skies are progged to be mostly clear. Temperatures will gradually warm early this with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s inland by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 50s each night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Weather Highlights: - Chances for coastal showers continue Wednesday - Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Isolated Thunderstorms Inland Thursday/Friday The shift to warmer, moist and an early summer-like airmass is expected through the middle and latter part of the week and into the weekend. Robust amplifying ridge aloft and warm, moist southeasterly flow will both contribute to near record and possibly record-setting temperatures later this week. Long-range ensembles indicated the 925mb temperatures will be on the extreme warm side, registering at the 95th-99th percentile for several days as the center of the upper ridge hovers over Florida and Georgia. Initially, the warm moist southeasterly flow and the warm temperatures should result in modest instability, encouraging scattered sea-breeze driven showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. This activity should be focused inland, along or west of I-75 each day. Convective activity will like begin to be suppressed by the weekend as strong subsident air beneath the upper ridge builds a firm cap aloft. Highs will build each through Friday when upper 80s to near 90 degree temps are expected inland. The cooling sea breeze will keep the beaches 10-15 degrees cooler. It`s worth mentioning that this prolonged warm, moist airmass over the cooler coastal waters may lead to episodic sea fog through the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... LIFR to VLIFR conditions continue through 13z-14z this morning, mainly due to low stratus however there are pockets of dense fog, especially along and north of I-10. Expect bases to rise to MVFR and then subsequently scatter out as dry aloft gets mixed in. Winds will be light today, favoring a NE to ENE wind at or below 10 knots today. While VFR conditions will persist through evening, another night of low stratus and fog is expected to result in early hours Monday. && .MARINE... High pressure to the north will build more toward the northeast and strengthen early next week, with a inverted trough developing over the coastal waters. Strong onshore flow will develop as a result early to mid next week, with small craft advisory conditions likely. The high will move away toward the east later in the week, with a breezy onshore flow continuing across the waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases throughout Monday as onshore flow strengthens. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Tuesday A pattern shift with strong upper ridge building across the region this week will lead to near record temperatures Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don`t appear to align through the next week but the transition to moist, and mildly unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze and the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for inland districts Thursday and Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Potential for locally dense fog this morning for inland areas, especially across SE GA. Nightly potential for fog which may become locally dense is expected each night this week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures later this week: March 5: KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989 March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 77 48 76 53 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 66 52 66 55 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 73 49 75 55 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 68 53 73 59 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 78 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-035-120-124-220-225-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261175 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:00 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 551 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. Temperatures during the mid to late week warm up have trended slightly warmer. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. 2) Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. A strong high is situated over the northern Plains, a weaker high planted across the Southeast, and a coastal trough now well offshore. The pressure gradient is negligible between these features, and light winds and generally clear skies are prevailing. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, with any denser fog being observed mainly across NE NC and our southern piedmont counties. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is right around to just above normal for this time of year. Today will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for more "spring-like" temperatures as we start meteorological spring ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. As the front drops through the area, some of the CAMs have been indicating that a few showers might develop generally across south-central and southeast VA/NE NC later today, so have kept slight chance PoPS in this area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday`s spring-time highs. This will occur in conjunction with breezy northerly flow, where winds will likely gusts up to around 20 mph (20-25 mph along the coast). Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. Have dropped temperatures closer to MOS guidance as NBM temperatures were much higher and not accounting for the CAD set up that is likely on Monday. As for any possible wintry precipitation, the high will initially be in a typically favorable location for a for possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and potentially some light freezing rain are possible over portions of the area late Monday into early Tuesday. While there still remains disagreement between some of the global models, the overall consensus is that the high to our north will be very progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area. Due to dropping probs for both snow and ice accumulations and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather. While there is a low chance for some ice accumulations, it will likely be limited to the tree tops and will likely not lead to any impacts. As there is still some uncertainty regarding this event, we will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is likely starting the middle of next week through the weekend. After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. This week will be there first time that Richmond will have seen highs >=70F since right before Thanksgiving. The last time that 70F was not reached during meteorological winter was during the 2009-2010 winter. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. However, with the strength of the ridge and the continued very good ensemble consensus, this scenario is looking more and more unlikely, so have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 550 AM EST Sunday... ECG and PHF are observing some intermittent patchy fog this morning, but otherwise, generally VFR conditions prevailing across the terminals this morning Light southwest winds will continue through the early afternoon before shifting to the N/NE and increasing as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Gusts of around 20 kts are expected for a few hours this afternoon/evening in the wake of the front, but will trend downwards overnight. Gusts of 12 There is a chance for a few showers along the front, mainly at the southern terminals, but confidence is too low to include any mention of them at this time. SBY could also see a few hours of MVFR CIGs as the front moves through this afternoon, but as with any showers, confidence was too low to include at this time. Outlook: High pressure builds down into the region Sunday night into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional periods of light precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. A brief period of wintry precipitation is possible at RIC/SBY Monday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs are in effect later today into Monday for all zones except the upper rivers as a backdoor cold front drops south through the area. Latest wx analysis indicates a weak sfc ridge across the area early this morning, with a light S to SW flow around 5-10 kt or less. Waves are currently ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay, with 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Some marine fog/ low stratus is possible this morning. Will continue to monitor trends and cameras for the possibility of needing Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Strong sfc high pressure, currently ~1038 mb is situated over northern Minnesota, and will dive SE later today, with an associated backdoor cold front dropping S into the local waters. The model trends are overall again slightly faster with this feature- the most likely timing is 12 noon to 2 pm over northern areas, then accelerating south fairly quickly through the mid aftn hrs. Opted to push the start time for SCAs to 1 pm for all of the Bay as well as the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (even though it`ll probably be closer to 2-3 PM for the lower Bay and coastal waters S of Chincoteague). The NAM/GFS have backed off slightly with respect to the magnitude of pressure rises late this aftn/evening, but are still showing 8-9 mb in a 6 hr period. CAMS are suggesting that the sharp pressure rises in the immediate wake of the cold front would yield a 1-2 hr period with gusts up to ~30 kt, followed by a lull for 3-6 hrs with winds increasing again later tonight as the better cold air advection arrives. It may be a bit marginal for the mid/upper Bay and the coastal waters N of Cape Charles outside of this initial push in the aftn, but still close enough to not change the headlines. Otherwise, elevated N/NE winds around 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt prevail into Monday morning and may linger into early aftn over the lower Bay and southern coastal areas. Seas will increase to 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S, and waves to 3-4 ft, peaking late this aftn into early Monday morning. Expect 5 ft seas to linger into Monday night in the southern waters. Seas may stay a bit elevated Tue-Wed but this may be overdone so did not extend the headlines past 06Z Tuesday for now. Winds become SSW late Tuesday and should remain southerly through late in the week, with winds generally 10-15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1261174 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 419 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog will impact portions of the Lower and Middle Keys, as well as the adjacent near through offshore Gulf waters this morning. - A strong high pressure system will spread southeastward off of North America early this week, freshening northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Beginning Monday night, breezy conditions will be possible and marine Cautions and Advisories may be required.. - A moderate drought continues for the entire island chain. Burn bans are possible, trees and bushes begin browning, and water supply decreases. For the upcoming week, there will be a slight chance for showers. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Winds across the Keys are poorly defined this morning due to the tail end of a trough stretching northeastward from southern Florida. Earlier influx of dew points in the lower 70s over Gulf water near or slightly below 70 set the stage for fog formation. Light northerly breezes through the past evening hours drove some of this fog into portions of the Lower and Middle Keys. Despite the light flow recently shifting east to southeast, some areas of fog continue to linger across portions of the Lower Keys. Last evenings sounding indicated ample CAPE. Precipitable was also slightly above normal at 1.22 inches and moisture. However, forcing near the Keys is lacking and, at least at the time of the sounding, a very low inhibition layer was evident. As a result, despite a few showers and thunderstorms present over the broader area, the forecast area has been precipitation free. The last remnants of the surface trough will move off to the northeast and east today as modest high pressure over the southeastern United States spreads southeastward into Florida. This will result in winds becoming light to gentle northeasterlies. This flow should drop dew points a couple of degrees to slightly below 70. The strengthening breeze and falling dew points, along with day time heating, should steadily eliminate fog potential. A relatively amplified mid latitude trough across the eastern United States will gradually push out to sea over the next 24 hours. Until this clears, ample CAPE and weak moist confluence will continue across our area. While forcing will be weak, and very low inhibition will help to limit activity, convective development cannot be completely ruled out. If a shower forms, it could also amplify into a thunderstorm. For this reason have kept rain chances slight, but also include the possibility for thunderstorms. The forecast becomes more monotonous early this week. An expansive high pressure system will expand southeastward off of the North American coast and take the remainder of the week to lumber off into the Atlantic. This high will further ramp up northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. Expect breezy conditions heading into mid week, lasting through the remainder of the week. Breezes will start out east northeast to easterly, and slowly veer east to southeasterly as the core of the high advances further east. The fast flow and ample moisture will be supportive of spats of shower activity. However, this will be held in check by lower to mid level ridging remaining in firm control. Highs will remain near 80 with overnight lows in the lower 70s. Dew points are expected to meander in the upper 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A surface trough is lifting out off the northeast Atlantic Coast. The weak tail end of this trough is pulling out across the Bahamas and resulting in a rather flat pressure field and light breezes. A modest surface high over the southeastern United States will migrate southeastward across Florida. This will bolster northeasterly breezes tonight. Another more powerful surface high will spread southeastward off of North America and push breezes up another notch. A mix of cautions and possibly advisories may be required for portions of Keys waters beginning Monday night, and lasting well through the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Foggy conditions will linger near both island terminals, particularly EYW, but reduced categories onsite are not expected. Occasional observations of FEW to SCT clouds near FL005 may be reported during the first few hours of the TAF period, but the nearby fog causing this should lift near 16Z. Surface winds will remain light out of the north to northeast. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1874, the daily record high temperature of 89F was recorded in Key West. This is also tied for the warmest temperature ever recorded in March. Temperature data for Key West dates back to 1872. Of note, on this day in 1996, the Key West ASOS was commissioned at the Key West International Airport. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory for GMZ032>035. && $$ |
| #1261173 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 332 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. 2) Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. A strong high is situated over the northern Plains, a weaker high planted across the Southeast, and a coastal trough now well offshore. The pressure gradient is negligible between these features, and light winds and generally clear skies are prevailing. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, with any denser fog being observed mainly across NE NC and our southern piedmont counties. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is right around to just above normal for this time of year. Today will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for more "spring-like" temperatures as we start meteorological spring ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. As the front drops through the area, some of the CAMs have been indicating that a few showers might develop generally across south-central and southeast VA/NE NC later today, so have kept slight chance PoPS in this area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday`s spring-time highs. This will occur in conjunction with breezy northerly flow, where winds will likely gusts up to around 20 mph (20-25 mph along the coast). Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. Have dropped temperatures closer to MOS guidance as NBM temperatures were much higher and not accounting for the CAD set up that is likely on Monday. As for any possible wintry precipitation, the high will initially be in a typically favorable location for a for possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and potentially some light freezing rain are possible over portions of the area late Monday into early Tuesday. While there still remains disagreement between some of the global models, the overall consensus is that the high to our north will be very progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area. Due to dropping probs for both snow and ice accumulations and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather. While there is a low chance for some ice accumulations, it will likely be limited to the tree tops and will likely not lead to any impacts. As there is still some uncertainty regarding this event, we will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is likely starting the middle of next week through the weekend. After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. This week will be there first time that Richmond will have seen highs >=70F since right before Thanksgiving. The last time that 70F was not reached during meteorological winter was during the 2009-2010 winter. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. However, with the strength of the ridge and the continued very good ensemble consensus, this scenario is looking more and more unlikely, so have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Sunday... ECG and PHF are already observing the development of some patchy fog this morning, so have included BR in those TAFs through around or just after sunrise. Cannot count out fog development at the other sites, so we will continue to monitor VIS over the next few hours and amend if necessary. Otherwise, generally light southwest winds will continue through the afternoon before shifting to the N/NE and increasing as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Gusts of around 20 kts are expected for a few hours this afternoon/evening in the wake of the front, but will trend downwards overnight. There is a chance for a few showers along the front, mainly at the southern terminals, but confidence is too low to include any mention of them at this time. Outlook: High pressure builds down into the region Sunday night into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional periods of light precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. A brief period of wintry precipitation is possible at RIC/SBY Monday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs are in effect later today into Monday for all zones except the upper rivers as a backdoor cold front drops south through the area. Latest wx analysis indicates a weak sfc ridge across the area early this morning, with a light S to SW flow around 5-10 kt or less. Waves are currently ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay, with 2-3 ft seas over the coastal waters. Some marine fog/ low stratus is possible this morning. Will continue to monitor trends and cameras for the possibility of needing Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Strong sfc high pressure, currently ~1038 mb is situated over northern Minnesota, and will dive SE later today, with an associated backdoor cold front dropping S into the local waters. The model trends are overall again slightly faster with this feature- the most likely timing is 12 noon to 2 pm over northern areas, then accelerating south fairly quickly through the mid aftn hrs. Opted to push the start time for SCAs to 1 pm for all of the Bay as well as the coastal waters N of Cape Charles (even though it`ll probably be closer to 2-3 PM for the lower Bay and coastal waters S of Chincoteague). The NAM/GFS have backed off slightly with respect to the magnitude of pressure rises late this aftn/evening, but are still showing 8-9 mb in a 6 hr period. CAMS are suggesting that the sharp pressure rises in the immediate wake of the cold front would yield a 1-2 hr period with gusts up to ~30 kt, followed by a lull for 3-6 hrs with winds increasing again later tonight as the better cold air advection arrives. It may be a bit marginal for the mid/upper Bay and the coastal waters N of Cape Charles outside of this initial push in the aftn, but still close enough to not change the headlines. Otherwise, elevated N/NE winds around 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt prevail into Monday morning and may linger into early aftn over the lower Bay and southern coastal areas. Seas will increase to 3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S, and waves to 3-4 ft, peaking late this aftn into early Monday morning. Expect 5 ft seas to linger into Monday night in the southern waters. Seas may stay a bit elevated Tue-Wed but this may be overdone so did not extend the headlines past 06Z Tuesday for now. Winds become SSW late Tuesday and should remain southerly through late in the week, with winds generally 10-15 kt or less. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ632-634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1261172 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 311 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fog threat continues early this morning. Small Craft Advisories have been expanded, now including all marine zones except the Pamlico/Pungo rivers. Gale chances have gone down with this update. Brought temperatures down 5-10F Monday given the expected cold air damming setup. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for brief scattered showers Sunday evening. 2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft. 3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures. 4) Patchy dense fog will be possible this morning. Marine...Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night and Monday with the potential for infrequent gale-force gusts south of Cape Hatteras. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient today with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area this evening. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for scattered showers, so slight chance to chance PoPs have been maintained with this forecast update. Lack of instability and weaker upper level support should keep us thunder free along this front. Behind the front, a tight pressure gradient with high building in will bring a surge of breezy conditions with wind gusts 20-25 mph inland tonight, increasing to 25-35 mph along the coast. KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night`s front paired with the cold air damming setup will let overcast skies linger and keep temperatures cooler on Monday with highs in the low to mid 40s for most, increasing to around 50 for coastal locales. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. While the GFS is still holding onto snow chances at the NC/VA border, this is not expected to extend south into our county warning area. KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week as a surface high sits offshore late week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there`s potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons Friday onwards. KEY MESSAGE 4...Skies remain clear and winds have remained calm across ENC early this morning. In addition to that, ample low level moisture remains in place after the previous days rain which has resulted in patchy ground fog developing across portions of ENC. Expect fog to continue to expand and potentially become thick at times with visibilities of less than a mile possible with the greatest threat coming around sunrise. Biggest challenge will be how widespread this fog gets, but current thinking is that areas along and east of Hwy 17 have the greatest chance at seeing dense fog. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aviation forecast overnight remains challenging, and features low confidence. Based on satellite and webcams, the FG being reported at times around ENC appears to be of the shallow variety. However, with good radiational cooling conditions, the potential of a more widespread, and impactful FG, still exists. However, it`s unclear when, or if, this will develop. For now, this uncertainty is reflected via TEMPO groups. If observations, satellite, and webcams begin to show evidence of a more impactful FG risk, the TAFs will be updated as appropriate. Stay tuned for amendments through the night. Any BR/FG should mix out by 13 or 14z Sunday morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail into Sunday afternoon. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, a cold front will move south through ENC. This is expected to occur between 20z-03z. The front will be accompanied by a north to northeast wind shift, and increasingly gusty winds. There may be just enough lift, moisture, and instability for a few SHRA to develop along the front. Should this occur, a quick drop in VIS can be expected. A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front as well. Outlook: Behind Sunday`s front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Light W/NW winds early this morning thanks to a high sitting over the southeast. Today will have pleasant boating conditions until the evening when a cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, wind gusts 25-34 knots will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours through Monday. There is potential for infrequent gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras behind the front, but confidence is increasing in primarily sub-34 knot gusts given a slightly weaker wind gust trend in models. EPS is still giving high gale force probs (70%) for this region so it can`t be completely ruled out, but this seems to be the outlier when compared with other deterministic and ensemble based models. With a favorable N/NE wind direction and high HREF/REFS probs, have expanded the SCA to include most remain inland sounds/rivers with the exception of the Pamlico/Pungo River. RAP is suggesting the Pamlico/Pungo river area to see the tightest pressure gradient of the region behind the front, so despite the unfavorable NE wind direction infrequent gusts up to 25 knots are not out of the question for a brief period tonight. Seas are expected to build in response to the strong NE winds, increasing to 5-8 ft Monday night and 6-9 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will be on their way down Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night. Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have pleasant boating conditions with winds and seas remaining below 25 knots as winds switch to become more southerly with high shifting offshore. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1261171 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 408 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 * Breezy to windy conditions are expected across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands through much of the week, especially late week. Unsecured items could blow around. * Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal today and Monday. More typical March temperatures return by midweek as stronger northeasterly winds develop. * A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected across most local beaches through much of the week, especially late in the week as winds and seas increase, and the risk will become high. Avoid swimming at unguarded beaches. * Hazardous marine conditions are expected across the Offshore Atlantic and Caribbean Waters, as well as in local passages. Fresh to strong winds will produce choppy to rough seas. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && .Short Term(Today through Tuesday)... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 Overnight, the breezy southeast winds brought a pocket of moisture, with clouds and showers across PR. Although we did not observe flooding problems, showery weather was observed. Meanwhile, the US Virgin Islands observed mainly calm weather, with most of the rain activity over local waters. While writing this discussion, we observed temperatures in the upper 70s across the US Virgin Islands, in the mid- or low-70s along the coast, and in the mid-60s and even cooler across the higher elevations and valleys. Weather Flow stations reported winds were mainly from the east-southeast at 10 to 25 mph near some stations across the USVI, east and south PR, including Culebra. The Azores High will influence our local weather pattern, leading to breezy to occasionally windy ESE-SE winds over the next few days. A more east-northeasterly wind flow will return around Tuesday. Still, weather models suggest that winds at the 925 MB level will be above normal, approximately in the 75th percentile of local climatology for this month. While we can expect periods of sunshine or mostly clear skies, these breezy winds will also bring in pockets of moisture daily, resulting in quick-moving showers, particularly in windward areas. By the afternoon, due to the southeast wind flow, we may see showers developing in the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico and downwind of the US Virgin Islands in the form of streamers, and more to the west-southwest on Tuesday as winds tend to become more east to northeast. Consequently, we anticipate periods of moderate to locally heavy rain, which could lead to water accumulation in various parts of the islands. NBM suggests more frequent showers on Monday with the arrival of a surge of moisture. Model guidance indicates that temperatures today and Monday are expected to be near or slightly above normal, as shown by the 925 MB climatology. This trend suggests that both Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands may experience warmer-than-normal temperatures during these days. Starting Tuesday, however, a shift to more typical March temperatures is anticipated as stronger northeasterly winds develop. && .Long Term(Wednesday through Sunday)... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday... By midweek, a series of high-pressure systems will remain over the Atlantic, maintaining a prevailing northeasterly wind flow throughout the forecast period. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Consequently, winds will be the primary weather concern during the long-term period. Wind risk levels are expected to fluctuate from limited to elevated, particularly along coastal areas of the islands. Residents are advised to secure loose outdoor objects, as items may be displaced or damaged by strong winds. The latest model guidance indicates that moisture content will remain fragmented and variable on Wednesday and Thursday, fluctuating between near-seasonal levels and slightly above normal as patches of moisture move within the trade wind flow. Precipitable water values are forecast to range between 1.20 and 1.60 inches. This pattern will support frequent passing showers, especially during the overnight and morning hours across windward areas, followed by limited afternoon convection over interior and western Puerto Rico each day. Showers are expected to be fast-moving, reducing the flood risk. From Thursday night into Friday, moisture levels and upper-level dynamics are expected to become more favorable as reflected in higher rain chances, potentially leading to an increase in the frequency or intensity of showers Friday into the weekend. Model guidance suggest PWAT values will become more stable, around 1.6 inches each day. Additionally, moisture slightly increase into the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Although strong winds should limit rainfall accumulation and reduce flood potential, current data supports a limited flood threat for eastern Puerto Rico on Friday morning. Showers may result in ponding of water in areas of poor drainage. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected to prevail, with passing showers primarily during the nighttime and early morning hours. Winds will also remain a primary hazard throughout the long-term period across the islands. The 925 mb temperature outlook suggests temperatures will be near the average for this time of the year based on climatological data. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail today. However, breezy winds will give way to gusty conditions, and occasional pockets of showers will move across the local flying area, affecting TAF sites. During the afternoon, between 01/15-23z, some showers will develop across the interior and northwest under the southeasterly wind flow. Expect ESE winds at 5-15 kt overnight with higher gusts, and after 01/13z at 10-20 kt with gusts between 20 and 30 kt, or even higher. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 The broad surface high across most of the Atlantic will continue to tighten the local pressure gradient, promoting fresh to locally strong east-southeast winds. Although this high will remain in place, another surface high will build over the western to central Atlantic from Monday into midweek, sustaining fresh to strong winds. Expect winds to become east-northeasterly by midweek. These conditions will maintain choppy to rough seas across the regional waters through much of the week, especially across the Atlantic and Caribbean Offshore waters and local passages. Small craft should continue to exercise caution across all waters. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 308 AM AST Sun Mar 1 2026 Breezy conditions will persist through much of the week. The breezy to locally windy conditions, resulting in choppy to rough seas, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents. Overall, a moderate risk of rip currents is expected across much of the local beaches in PR and the USVI. Thus, life-threatening rip currents remain possible, particularly near piers, jetties, and reef channels. Looking ahead, confused seas due to fresh to strong trades and a northeast to easterly swell will likely further deteriorate coastal conditions and potentially increase the risk of dangerous rip currents, particularly along north and east-facing beaches from the middle of the week onward. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ711-723-733. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM AST Monday for AMZ741. && $$ |
| #1261170 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 258 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Areas to Widespread Dense Fog This Morning. Southeast GA and portions of NE FL. Nightly, Localized Dense Fog Possible Each Morning This Week - Extended Period of Breezy Onshore Winds This Week. Elevated Surf and High Risk for Rip Currents Likely by Tuesday and - Record High Temperatures Later This Week && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT: - Areas of dense fog this morning, and again Monday Morning A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the Suwannee Valley, Southeast GA and portions of NE FL along I-10, including western Duval County. Elsewhere, low stratus should limit dense fog to a patchy nature. Fog should lift through 8-9 AM. After areas of fog and low clouds this morning, especially inland, generally weak high pressure will be the primary feature throughout today tonight as well before changes come with a backdoor front and reinforcing ridge on Monday. As for today, more sunshine than clouds will be expected area wide, with only some scattered lower clouds closer to the coast and over southern areas with an onshore flow around 10-15 mph, only around 5-10 mph on average inland. Highs will be a bit warmer today thanks to the weaker flow, except near the coast. Mid to upper 70s will be common inland, with mid 60s to the low 70s more c common closer to the coast & St. Johns River. Some higher clouds will move into the region later this evening and into tonight, which will have a bit of an effect on both fog and low stratus potential as well as amount of radiational cooling, but not significantly. Still expecting some lower clouds to spread inland from northeast to southwest tonight, with some patchy to areas of fog mainly inland where calmer winds occur. Min temps will be generally in the 40s to near 50 inland and low 50s by the coast and St. Johns River Basin. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Patchy Morning Fog Possible - Breezy Coastal Winds - Slight Chance of Coastal Showers Tuesday Upper level flow will flatten out as the broader pattern aloft begins to transition on Monday. At the surface, a strong area of high pressure pushing off the New England coast will push a backdoor cold front into the area through Monday. A northeasterly wind surge will bring an uptick in coastal winds through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 mph. Winds will begin to relax through Monday night as the high pressure shifts farther away into the north Atlantic. Prevailing flow will turn onshore, leading to the development of coastal trough which may direct some showers into the NE FL beaches through Tuesday afternoon. Some upper level moisture (aka clouds) moving across SE GA early Monday and Tuesday morning could lessen the fog extent or development there, favoring areas across NE FL where skies are progged to be mostly clear. Temperatures will gradually warm early this with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s inland by Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid/upper 50s each night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Weather Highlights: - Chances for coastal showers continue Wednesday - Record High Temperatures possible Thursday through the Weekend - Isolated Thunderstorms Inland Thursday/Friday The shift to warmer, moist and an early summer-like airmass is expected through the middle and latter part of the week and into the weekend. Robust amplifying ridge aloft and warm, moist southeasterly flow will both contribute to near record and possibly record-setting temperatures later this week. Long-range ensembles indicated the 925mb temperatures will be on the extreme warm side, registering at the 95th-99th percentile for several days as the center of the upper ridge hovers over Florida and Georgia. Initially, the warm moist southeasterly flow and the warm temperatures should result in modest instability, encouraging scattered sea-breeze driven showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday and Friday afternoons. This activity should be focused inland, along or west of I-75 each day. Convective activity will like begin to be suppressed by the weekend as strong subsident air beneath the upper ridge builds a firm cap aloft. Highs will build each through Friday when upper 80s to near 90 degree temps are expected inland. The cooling sea breeze will keep the beaches 10-15 degrees cooler. It`s worth mentioning that this prolonged warm, moist airmass over the cooler coastal waters may lead to episodic sea fog through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... FG and low stratus are filling into the region as expected early this morning. IFR conditions will be expected at all terminals through early to mid morning overall, though light breezes around 2 to 3 knots at times this morning will likely "mix out" lower vsbys at times, especially at airfields closer to the coast north and east of GNV and VQQ. Continue to monitor throughout the morning hours for any forecast updates accordingly. Otherwise, restrictions are expected to lift by mid morning with VFR returning. Winds are forecast to remain just under 10 kts at all airfields except for SGJ where onshore flow will be stronger. FG and low stratus chances return tonight, but after the end of the current forecast period. && .MARINE... High pressure to the north will build more toward the northeast and strengthen early next week, with a inverted trough developing over the coastal waters. Strong onshore flow will develop as a result early to mid next week, with small craft advisory conditions likely. The high will move away toward the east later in the week, with a breezy onshore flow continuing across the waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents expected at area beaches with some persistent onshore flow and surf height around 2 to 4 feet. Rip current risk increases throughout Monday as onshore flow strengthens. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Patchy High Dispersions Monday, Tuesday A pattern shift with strong upper ridge building across the region this week will lead to near record temperatures Thursday and Friday. Critical weather conditions don`t appear to align through the next week but the transition to moist, and mildly unstable, airmass later this week may lead to a moderate sea breeze and the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for inland districts Thursday and Friday. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Potential for locally dense fog this morning for inland areas, especially across SE GA. Nightly potential for fog which may become locally dense is expected each night this week. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures later this week: March 5: KGNV: 87/1997 KAMG: 87/1989 March 6: KGNV: 87/2023 KAMG: 86/1961 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 77 48 76 53 / 0 0 10 0 SSI 66 52 66 55 / 0 0 10 20 JAX 73 49 75 55 / 0 0 10 10 SGJ 68 53 73 59 / 0 0 10 10 GNV 78 49 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 78 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-030-035-120-124-220-225-322-422-425-522. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1261169 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 238 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. 2) Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 238 AM EST Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining mild and mostly dry today. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. A strong high is situated over the northern Plains, a weaker high planted across the Southeast, and a coastal trough now well offshore. The pressure gradient is negligible between these features, and light winds and generally clear skies are prevailing. A few land-based obs are reporting patchy fog, with any denser fog being observed mainly across NE NC and our southern piedmont counties. Temperatures range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, which is right around to just above normal for this time of year. Today will feature southwest flow ahead and another chance for more "spring-like" temperatures as we start meteorological spring ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. As the front drops through the area, some of the CAMs have been indicating that a few showers might develop generally across south-central and southeast VA/NE NC later today, so have kept slight chance PoPS in this area. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40, which could be quite the shock in the wake of Sunday`s spring-time highs. This will occur in conjunction with breezy northerly flow, where winds will likely gusts up to around 20 mph (20-25 mph along the coast). Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. KEY MESSAGE 2...Light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning is possible, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation, some of which may be winter weather. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. Have dropped temperatures closer to MOS guidance as NBM temperatures were much higher and not accounting for the CAD set up that is likely on Monday. As for any possible wintry precipitation, the high will initially be in a typically favorable location for a for possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and potentially some light freezing rain are possible over portions of the area late Monday into early Tuesday. While there still remains disagreement between some of the global models, the overall consensus is that the high to our north will be very progressive, so the colder air does not stay in place long across the area. Due to dropping probs for both snow and ice accumulations and very marginal temperatures expected during the event, have basically removed any accumulation of wintry weather. While there is a low chance for some ice accumulations, it will likely be limited to the tree tops and will likely not lead to any impacts. As there is still some uncertainty regarding this event, we will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is likely starting the middle of next week through the weekend. After the cooler start to the week, warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance is depicting a large upper ridge over the eastern U.S, with 850 mb temperature anomalies well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50F. By the weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. This week will be there first time that Richmond will have seen highs >=70F since right before Thanksgiving. The last time that 70F was not reached during meteorological winter was during the 2009-2010 winter. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. However, with the strength of the ridge and the continued very good ensemble consensus, this scenario is looking more and more unlikely, so have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Sunday... ECG and PHF are already observing the development of some patchy fog this morning, so have included BR in those TAFs through around or just after sunrise. Cannot count out fog development at the other sites, so we will continue to monitor VIS over the next few hours and amend if necessary. Otherwise, generally light southwest winds will continue through the afternoon before shifting to the N/NE and increasing as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Gusts of around 20 kts are expected for a few hours this afternoon/evening in the wake of the front, but will trend downwards overnight. There is a chance for a few showers along the front, mainly at the southern terminals, but confidence is too low to include any mention of them at this time. Outlook: High pressure builds down into the region Sunday night into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional periods of light precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. A brief period of wintry precipitation is possible at RIC/SBY Monday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow from high pressure over the area through Sunday morning. - SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound as a backdoor cold front from strong high pressure to the NE crosses the waters Sunday afternoon. Latest wx analysis shows high pressure over the area this afternoon with a lingering upper trough, with subsequent surface stationary front, offshore to the SE. The high pressure over the area allows for relatively light N/NE winds around 5-10 kt. Waves and seas are currently ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will become S/SW tonight still around 5-10 kt ahead of the next cold front approaching from the N. Marine fog/ low stratus clouds could develop overnight across the coastal waters and Ches. Bay as dewpoints reach near water temps (mid to upper 30s) with light winds. Will continue to monitor trends and cameras for the possibility of needing Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Beginning Sunday afternoon for the middle Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters, the backdoor cold front drops across the local waters. Models continue to show a strong (~1040 mb), progressive high pressure to the north of the area pushing CAA over the waters, as well as fairly strong pressure rises, Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Latest CAM models trends the cold front moving through the area slightly fast, now with backdoor front crossing the middle Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters Sunday afternoon, and crossing the NC coastal waters Sunday evening. Elevated N/NE winds around 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt are expected through Monday morning. An initial burst with the front could have gusts up to 30 kt. The upper rivers are more marginal, due to the wind direction. Seas will increase to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S, and waves to 3-4 ft, peaking late Sunday into early Monday morning. With this, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound, with staggering start times from N to S beginning Sunday afternoon. 5 ft seas will likely linger into Monday afternoon in the southern waters. Then, benign marine conditions return for the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1261168 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 236 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast today, with an arctic front expected to bring light snow showers today, and very cold air on Monday. Growing confidence in a wintry mix late Tuesday, but the timing of precipitation type and accumulations remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch. -Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. -A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. -Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Area of light snow today with light accumulations of a trace to 1 inch An arctic cold front will traverse the region today, bringing a brief round of light snow showers. With limited moisture and upper- level forcing staying confined to northern New England, accumulation will be limited. Guidance has come into much greater agreement on snow totals, from a dusting to 1 inch. The areas with the best chance of an inch will be across the western interior, where 850 mb FGEN will be strongest. The line of snow showers will weaken as it approaches the coast. Snow moves west to east today, entering the Berkshires around 8-9 am and dissipating offshore between 2-3 pm. Snowfall rates will be light, well under 0.5 inches per hour. Key Message 2...Arctic front brings a return to very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning. Despite today being the first day of meteorological spring, Mother Nature did not get the memo. The Arctic front will usher in another round of very cold temperatures starting Sunday night and lasting into Tuesday morning. 850 mb temps bottom out at -16C Monday morning, with the 510 thickness line nearly reaching Southern New England. This will result in low temperatures Monday morning in the low single digits, possibly below zero in NW MA. With a little leftover wind from the arctic front overnight, the wind chill index will be below zero Monday morning, possibly approaching -10 across the interior. Despite the strong March sun angle, high temperatures will stay below freezing on Monday with a wind chill index in the low 20s. 850mb temperatures begin to warm overnight Monday; however, strong radiational cooling under calm winds and clear skies will allow low temperatures to bottom out in the low teens to high single digits Tuesday morning. Key Message 3...A wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance continues to advertise a weak area of low pressure traversing through the region sometime late Tuesday. The accompanying warm front will bring temperatures back to more seasonable levels for Tuesday; however, there will be enough residual cold air to lead to a wintry mix of precipitation. Precipitation likely starts out as snow before switching over to freezing rain, then rain. Timing out of these p-type changes is highly uncertain and likely wont be resolved until were within 48 hours with hi-res guidance available. Snow and freezing rain accumulations will remain highly uncertain until the timing of p- type can be nailed down. Key Message 4...Remaining unsettled beyond Wednesday with temperatures trending above normal. The active weather pattern continues through the end of the work week as the zonal jet stream and stalled frontal boundary send several weak waves of shortwave energy into southern New England. Temperatures starting Wednesday are expected to rise well above normal, with highs approaching the 50s and overnight lows even staying near or above freezing. This will help keep any precipitation that falls during the end of the week as rain. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. Generally MVFR cigs as the chance for some light snow showers increases late Sunday morning into the early afternoon. Light snow moves from W to E between 14 and 18z then gradually comes to an end between 19 and 21z from W-E. Not expecting much accumulation with this system with up to 1 inch possible across the region. Confidence is moderate. Sunday Night through Monday...Moderate Confidence. Conditions return to VFR after the -SN moves offshore. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 15-16z and departing 20-21z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 14-15z and departing 19-20z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, chance SN. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Morning...High confidence. Northerly winds begin to increase to near 25 knots tonight into Monday morning, with seas building to 5 feet across the outer waters where SCA`s have been issued. Chance of light to moderate freezing spray across the inner waters Monday night into late Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1261167 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 158 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - High risk of rip currents today at Volusia and northern Brevard County beaches; entering the surf is discouraged - Mostly dry today with a few showers brushing the coast, mainly south of Cape Canaveral - Warming trend with above normal temperatures this week, in addition to isolated onshore-moving showers && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Today-Tonight...The cold front that moved through yesterday is now settling across south Florida. Temperatures locally (at 1 AM) are in the upper 50s to mid 60s as a blanket of low clouds sits over the area. This cloud cover should help us stay slightly milder than we otherwise would be under a clear sky, but sunrise temps are still forecast to range from the mid 50s to low 60s (warmest south). Drier air slowly works south today behind the front, helping to clear out some of the morning clouds. More clouds will linger closer to the coast and across the Treasure Coast/Okeechobee region than anywhere else. Isolated showers may develop over the Atlantic and make a close pass to the Treasure Coast; however, rain amounts will remain very light (generally under 0.05-0.10"). Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach the 70s areawide, generally reaching near normal values for the 1st of March. Overnight lows sink into the 50s to mid 60s once again, similar to this morning but with less cloud cover. As onshore flow takes hold, surf conditions will deteriorate at our northern beaches. Thus, a high risk of rip currents is in place today for Volusia and northern Brevard County beaches. Entering the water is discouraged there. South of Cape Canaveral, a moderate risk of rip currents continues. Monday-Saturday...The center of an expansive high pressure system will move from the Northeast U.S. Monday to the north-central Atlantic for the remainder of the week. Florida remains on the western periphery of surface high pressure most of the week into next weekend, allowing for a persistent period of onshore winds. Winds may be breezy to gusty at times, especially along the intracoastal and barrier islands. The 500mb ridge axis reaches the Southeast U.S. on Wednesday and generally stays in place over Florida and the nearby Atlantic into next weekend. Drier air looks to stick around through Monday before PW values increase areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. Model soundings show a continued dryness above 700-500mb this week, suggesting that buildup of moisture will be confined to the lowest 1-1.5 km. Light QPF has been persistent in the models this week, indicating at least isolated chances for showers over the local Atlantic pushing toward the coast. Some of these showers could make it farther inland, particularly during the daylight hours. Thus, we continue to carry a 20-35 percent chance of showers (up to 45 percent at the coast Tuesday). Temperatures trend higher each day, starting with the mid 70s to low 80s for highs Monday and reaching the low 80s (coast) to upper 80s (inland) by week`s end. The coolest night looks to be Monday night (upper 50s/mid 60s) before most locations settle into the 60s each night for the rest of the week. Looking farther ahead, CPC`s 8-14 Day Outlook shows that the above normal temperature pattern is likely to continue (70-80% chance of above normal temps). That being said, the prospects for measurable rainfall over the next 7-14 days do not look great. Recent rains were a welcome sight for many, but the current drought conditions are likely to continue through the first half of the month. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Generally favorable boating conditions continue today with north- northeast winds 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet (up to 5 feet offshore). Winds turn onshore and freshen slightly from Monday onward, notably across the offshore and Gulf Stream waters. Poor to hazardous boating conditions return for a time, beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through at least Wednesday. Seas build to a peak of 6 to 9 feet by Monday night into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed, starting Monday and lasting through at least the middle part of the week. Onshore-moving showers are possible (25-50% chance) each day, and low confidence exists for an isolated lightning storm (mainly south of Sebastian Inlet). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1239 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 IFR/LIFR CIGs are ongoing and are forecast to continue through Sunday morning. Models are beginning to indicate fog development near LEE early this morning, so have a TEMPO through 08Z for 2SM BKN002. North to northeast winds 5-10 knots tonight will turn NE and increase to 10-14KT with 15-20 KT gusts along the coast by mid morning Sunday. Winds are then forecast to become light overnight, except along the coast from TIX southward, where winds will be around 10 KT. CIGs are forecast to gradually improve to VFR at all terminals between 16Z-18Z and remain through the rest of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Drier air gradually works overhead today into Monday as the influence of high pressure settles over the area. Surface winds turn northeasterly today, then more easterly from Monday onward. Gusts each afternoon, especially as the sea breeze develops, could reach 20-25 mph at times. Onshore-moving showers (20-40% chance) are possible each day, especially from Tuesday onward. An isolated lightning storm cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast through mid week. Largely dry conditions and above normal temperatures are the main story for much of this week into next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 56 76 60 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 76 61 77 63 / 10 10 20 30 VRB 77 61 78 63 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 78 55 80 60 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 76 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 77 58 80 62 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 77 61 78 62 / 20 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1261166 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 142 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Areas of fog, locally dense, are expected this morning across portions of the region. If traveling, then slow down, use low- beam headlights, and increase your following distance. - Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected by the middle of the week with highs reaching the mid 80s. There is a low chance of reaching record high temperatures late in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Areas of fog this morning are expected to dissipate by mid-morning, leaving mostly sunny skies by afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s for most areas. For tonight, high pressure will continue over the area with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Through the workweek, ridging will build over the eastern US and western Atlantic, keeping any systems away from the area. The shortwaves will tend to go up and around us, though some uncertainty exists in how much influence they will have on our weather, particularly in terms of rain chances. By Thursday and Friday, a few showers and isolated storms will be possible during the afternoons given daytime heating and ample moisture in place with some influence from the sea breeze. The big story will be the temperatures with highs climbing well in to the 80s by mid to late week. This is well above seasonal averages for early March (near 70). There is a low chance of reaching record highs as we close out the upcoming work week into next weekend. Lows likewise will climb into the 50s and eventually 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Another round of fog and low cigs can be expected through the TAF period, affecting all terminals except for ECP. Light winds and partly clear skies will lead to radiational cooling which will allow for the fog to develop, and low ceilings will begin to move into the region around 08z-10z this morning. The fog and low cigs are expected to lift around 15z, returning to VFR conditions soon after. During the day, winds will remain light from the northeast. && .MARINE... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Winds will become more easterly today into Monday. Nocturnal easterly surges will move across the waters early in the week with fresh breezes expected each night, especially over the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola. Easterly winds near 20 knots are expected for the waters west of Apalachicola late Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Dry weather is expected for the next several days, but relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. Light northeast transport winds are expected today, then becoming east to southeast for early in the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 138 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 There are no flooding concerns for the next several days. Rainfall amounts with any showers that occur on Thursday and Friday are expected to remain light. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following website: https://www.weather.gov/tae/localdrought && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 49 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 53 76 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 76 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 77 48 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 48 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 79 48 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 57 69 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for FLZ007>013-016-326. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261165 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1226 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Dense fog will reduce visibilities and result in hazardous driving conditions through mid morning along and south of the I-10 corridor and along and southeast of I-65. - Above normal temperatures will continue through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1152 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Surface high pressure over the area has resulted in clear skies, light winds, and excellent radiational cooling conditions. This pattern favors dense fog development and we are now seeing visibilities starting to fall along with near zero dewpoint depressions over the southern and eastern portions of the area. A dense fog advisory has been issued for these areas, mainly along the coast and also along and southeast of Interstate 65. This will also include area bays and sounds as well as the near coastal marine waters. This fog should gradually erode on Sunday morning but may persist through late morning over portions of Mobile Bay and the Mississippi sound where water temperatures are still relatively cool and will keep the boundary layer stable for longer as compared to nearby land areas where surface heating should increase mixing sooner. Upper level ridging will gradually build eastward from the Plains across the eastern half of the country. Latest ensemble guidance continues to advertise mid level height anomalies that build to between one and two standard deviations above the mean for this time of year. The relatively dry airmass in place along with expected building heights should support a continued warming trend and dry conditions. Temperatures should warm through early next week with highs mainly in the lower 80s, except mid to upper 70s along the immediate coastal areas where there will remain influence from the cooler nearby waters. The dry airmass in place will support larger diurnal swings with lows mainly in the 50s through the first part of the week. There will likely be the potential for additional overnight fog as similar and favorable conditions remain in place into at least early next week. As upper level troughing develops over the western states and high pressure remains strong east of the Mississippi River, the surface pressure gradient should tighten and result in breezy conditions developing towards the middle of next week, especially over the open Gulf waters. This increased and persistent southwesterly flow should lead to building swell and surf. Spring tide conditions combined with the increased wave heights and swell should lead to a high threat of rip currents by Tuesday which may continue through a good portion of next week. Despite pleasant weather conditions at area beaches, visitors and residents will likely need to remain out of the water as deadly rip currents are expected along with surf heights potentially approaching surf advisory level conditions. This will be monitored closely and we will enhance rip current hazard messaging if this trend continues as expected. Surface high pressure will shift eastward into the southwestern Atlantic which will allow for a return of southeasterly to southerly flow and northward advection of deeper Gulf moisture. Dewpoints should increase into the 60s for the second half of the week along with the return of near to above average PWATs. Despite the increased moisture, rain chances should remain limited as the upper ridge holds on over the area. By the end of the week, chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase as instability builds and mid level ridging weakens. This will continue into the weekend, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remaining in the forecast with the greatest storm coverage over southeastern Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama as this area is glanced by weak mid level shortwaves embedded within southwesterly flow aloft. The upper ridge although weakened should keep storm chances lower across the remainder of the region. Warm temperatures along with increased humidity will keep highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s along the coast. Coastal temperatures should not be as cool later next week into next weekend as the extended stretch of warm weather should allow for nearshore coastal waters to gradually warm as well. With the increasing dewpoints and low level moisture we will need to monitor for sea fog potential, although with the warming waters and unstable airmass it may be difficult for sea fog to develop. This will be something to watch over the coming week. Low temperatures will warm for the second half of next week into next weekend with lows mainly in the 60s. /JLH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Patchy to areas of dense fog will continue to gradually develop over the next few hours across much of southwest and south-central Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. This will reduce visibility and ceilings as low as LIFR and even VLIFR flight category at times through 13-14Z. Fog gradually lifts through mid morning with flight category improving back to VFR for the day Sunday. Winds will remain calm to light and variable. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 light easterly to northeasterly flow today will become southeast and gradually increase in intensity on Monday. Moderate to strong southeasterly flow is anticipated late Monday night into Tuesday. Moderate southeasterly flow then continues the rest of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 54 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 55 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 48 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 76 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 73 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 77 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for ALZ055>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for MSZ078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632. Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ633>636- 650-655. && $$ |
| #1261164 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 127 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of northeast SC and Robeson County, NC. Use caution during the morning commute. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Low visibilities less than a quarter mile will lead to dangerous driving conditions through this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas most likely to be impacted, while patchy fog will be likely elsewhere. Drivers should slow down and use fog lights if available. - 2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. - 3) Cold Air Damming Wedge Creates Chilly Start to the Week. - 4) Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Low visibilities less than a quarter mile will lead to dangerous driving conditions through this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas most likely to be impacted, while patchy fog will be likely elsewhere. Drivers should slow down and use fog lights if available. Visibilities have gone down rapidly tonight, quicker than guidance suggested, mainly over NE SC. Based on the pattern, these lower visibilities should expand towards the NE SC coast overnight as the low clouds there continue to erode. All our NE SC counties as well as Robeson County have been added to a Dense Fog Advisory. Elsewhere, patchy fog could reduce visibility to 1 mile or less, but any dense fog should be brief. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. See the Marine section below for more detail. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Cold Air Damming Wedge Creates Chilly Start to the Week. CAD wedge is firmly in place Monday, where temperatures will remain below seasonal norms for early March. Wedge looks to have a greater influence across the Pee Dee region into the NC coastal plain, where temperatures may struggle to hit 50 Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, southern portions of the Grand Strand may capture more of a marine influence and have a chance to get up into the mid-to-upper 50s. Wedge starts to break down Tuesday, as upper level energy aloft pushes the surface high offshore of New England. While this does help break up the setup, it`s not a classic erosion of the wedge, like what a cold front would be capable of. Still afraid that the temperature forecast could bust here. Forecast shows highs in the low-to-mid 60s Tuesday, but there is a handful of data to suggest that we may never leave the 50s. Will have to monitor this more over the next few forecast cycles. .KEY MESSAGE 4...Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long. Better forcing comes into play Tuesday night, eroding the wedge for good this time. Suddenly, there is good vertical continuity in offshore ridging, accompanied with an old friend in the Bermuda high. Very warm temps on the way, easily going up into the mid-to- upper 70s Wednesday. This warmth is here to stick around through the rest of the week, giving the inland locales a chance to hit 80 degrees just about everyday from Thursday onward. Subsidence still appears to inhibit convection opportunities Thursday, but that appears to weaken more each day Friday through Sunday. Thermal profiles aren`t that impressive with the lack of a larger synoptic setup, but there is enough heat to spark some instability. Enter the chances for scattered storms in the afternoon in typical spring/summer fashion. Pulse storms will be aided by the seabreeze, sponsored by healthy differential heating between land and sea. Get ready for the pollen pods to start opening up... && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SC terminals + KLBT will battle dense fog tonight with IFR/LIFR likely through 13-14Z. KILM could have dense fog at times but it looks much less predominant here. TAFs will be adjusted if the trend changes but for now, dense fog should continue to spread towards the SC coast with some low CIGs possible. Light west winds after 14Z with VFR conditions returning. Towards the end of the period a cold front will push in from the north so expect a sharp shift in winds from W/SW to the NE ~10 kts with higher gusts and dropping CIGs. Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely through midweek under a ridging high with VFr predominant through the latter half of the week amidst low rain chances. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions during the day before a backdoor cold front drops down from the north late this evening. Winds will change from SW to NE rapidly with speeds increasing from ~8 kts to 15-20 kts. +25 kt gusts and 6 footers have lead to a Small Craft Advisory over our coastal waters through the end of the period and beyond. Monday through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory in effect across all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 2 AM EST Wednesday. Stiff northeasterly winds grip the waters Monday in a classic cold air damming wedge. Wouldn`t be surprised to see winds gust up to 30 kts at times, with seas at 4-6 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm from shore. Gradient loosens Tuesday, as the wedge very slowly tries to break. Winds veer slightly to the ESE Tuesday afternoon, coming down to 5-10 kts. Seas are slow to react, but eventually come down below advisory thresholds Tuesday night. Winds continue to veer southeasterly and then southerly through Thursday, pumping warm air through the area. Seas linger right at 3-4 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ087. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ |
| #1261163 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 103 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the entire SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia through 9 AM Sunday morning. The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance. A Small Craft Advisory was issued for all waters Monday into Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. - 2) Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. - 3) Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense fog is expected tonight and into early Sunday morning across the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM. Observations and webcams show that dense fog is developing across the forecast area, with several sites reporting vsbys of 1/4 mi along and west of I-95. While the most favorable conditions for dense fog remain west of I-95, the Dense Fog Advisory in effect covers the whole forecast area. GOES Satellite shows that there is still a stubborn pocket of low stratus clouds lingering over the Charleston Tri- County region, but as the stratus erodes fog is expected to develop. Guidance continues to indicate that the fog will become dense across the region and linger into the morning hours. KEY MESSAGE 2: Notable temperature swings through Wednesday. A dry cold front will move south through our area tonight, followed by high pressure wedging in from the north. A building ridge aloft Tuesday into Wednesday will then make for a drastic warm up. This will cause quite a swing in temperatures over the coming days. Temperatures are progged to rise well above normal today, into the mid 70s for most locations (except cooler at the beaches), then remaining a few degrees above normal tonight. The wedge pattern will lead to a drastic temperature gradient across the forecast area on Monday, becoming much cooler for most locations. Highs will range from the mid 50s near the Santee River, to the low 70s near the Altamaha River. Low temperatures on Monday night should be within a few degrees of normal. High temperatures will then rise back above normal on Tuesday, ranging from the lower to middle 70s away from the beaches. The warming trend continues on Wednesday with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s across most of our area (except cooler at the beaches), and possibly the lower 80s across portions of inland GA south of I-16. KEY MESSAGE 3: Warm temperatures and chances of rain for late next week into the weekend. The region will be under the influence of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, centered offshore late next week into the weekend. This will set the stage for warming temperatures to continue. There is a fairly small spread in max temperature guidance, with upper 70s to even low 80s likely in most locations away from the immediate coast. Early March normals are in the upper 60s, so these values would be around 10 degrees above normal. Lows will also trend on the mild side, in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Deeper moisture will return to the area with ensemble means indicating PWats climbing to around 1.2", which falls in the 85-90th percentile of climo. While larger scale forcing is lacking, moisture and some instability could lead to isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers developing, especially in the afternoons and into the early evening. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance for >0.25" of rain in any 24 hour period during this time frame. Severe and flooding risk looks minimal at this time. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The 06Z TAF period will initialize with IFR at KCHS/KJZI and MVFR at KSAV. Dense fog is expected to impact the KSAV terminal tonight, with lower confidence on any impacts to KCHS/KJZI given the lingering low cigs. Both vsby and cig restrictions will linger into the early morning hours, with VFR returning by noontime Sunday at all terminals. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the terminals Monday. && .MARINE... Dense fog may make a run for the Charleston Harbor early Sunday and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory may eventually be needed. High pressure will wedge in from the northeast early Monday, pinching the gradient across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been introduced for all marine zones, including the Charleston Harbor, for gusts 25 to 30 kt and building seas of 6 ft or greater. Wind speeds will begin to weaken late Monday night, though seas will be slower to subside. Small Craft Advisories will expire for the nearshore waters within 20 nm first on Tuesday, and then the GA waters beyond 20 nm on Wednesday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040- 042>045-047>052. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ330-354. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ374. && $$ |
| #1261162 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1208 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the weekend, especially in the coastal areas. - Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the start of next week. - Few cold fronts will try but are unlikely to reach SE Texas next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Another night of patchy fog is expected for portions of SE Texas tonight into Sunday morning, with the potential for dense fog developing along the coast and along/east of I-45. Observations as of 11pm has widespread reports of hazy conditions (2-6mi) visibilities, but expecting some dense fog to develop within the next few hours - again mostly along the coast and for areas along and east of I-45. Fog that does develop will dissipate within a few hours of sunrise giving way to mostly sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low 80s for Sunday afternoon. Another night of patchy fog is possible Sunday night into Monday, but SREF and HREF probabilities of dense fog are much lower compared to the past few nights. The abnormally warm weather will continue through the workweek as upper-level ridging moves in Monday into Tuesday, and then replaced by southwesterly flow aloft Wednesday through the remainder of the week. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s through the workweek (with some spots potentially rising into the upper 80s by the end of the week). Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s by midweek, and then upper 60s to potentially low 70s by week`s end (which will be approaching the normal high temperature for this time of year). For the first time in awhile, we actually have some chances to see some rainfall across SE Texas this week. The first chance will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest, then stalls to the northwest of the region. While the best dynamics appear to stay to the northwest of our area, a combination of daytime heating, passing weak disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft, and PWATs rising to 1.3-1.5" ahead of the front may lead to scattered showers in portions of SE Texas on Wednesday. PoPs continue for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods on Thursday as the stalled front lingers before retreating back to the north. The next chance for rain will be over the weekend as the next cold front approaches from northwest. At this time, there is higher uncertainty with this front on how far south it makes it before stalling. It may stall in a similar position to Wednesday`s front, but could sag further south in SE Texas and thus increasing rainfall chances. We appear to be in a similar upper-level pattern as we head into the second week of March, so I`d expect us to see continued warm/humid conditions and chances of rainfall. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities is expected later this evening into Sunday morning. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate from south to north after 00Z-02Z. Dense fog is expected to be mainly an issue for terminals near and south of I-10. Reduced ceilings are anticipated areawide. There remains some uncertainty on how far northward the lowest visibilities will extend. Fog/low ceilings will lift after 15Z-16Z. Southeasterly winds around 8-12 kt will prevail throughout the day on Sunday with intermittent wind gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon. Expecting another round of reduced visibilities/ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Main forecast concern through Monday will be the potential for patchy, dense fog developing nightly. As of 11pm, webcams and satellite imagery are showing some hazy conditions, but the expectation is that areas of dense fog will likely develop in Galveston Bay and our northern coastal waters through the night. We are not expecting as widespread dense fog like the past couple of nights, but mariners should keep weather aware and use safe boating practices if you encounter dense fog. Any fog that does develop is expected to dissipate by the mid-morning hours. Some patchy fog is possible again Sunday night night into Monday, but the daytime heating on Sunday will warm SSTs, and thus likely limiting sea fog development even more. Otherwise, expect continued low seas and light onshore winds through the next several days. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 73 63 74 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261161 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1254 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Fog threat continues to increase tonight and patchy dense fog remains possible, mainly after midnight. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A quick moving cold front will bring a chance for scattered showers Sunday evening. 2) Rain chances return Monday evening through Tuesday with shortwaves moving through aloft. 3) Warming trend Tuesday through the end of the week with well-above normal high temperatures. 4) Patchy dense fog will be possible tonight. Marine...Marginal SCA conditions possible over far outer coastal waters Cape to Cape through this evening. Widespread SCA conditions expected Sunday night with the potential for Gales on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...There will be quite the temperature gradient tomorrow with inland areas reaching the low to mid 70s while the Outer Banks will max out in the mid 50s. A quick moving cold front will drop south across the area tomorrow night. Strong forcing and higher PWATs (~1") along the front will support the potential for a few showers, so 15-30% PoPs have been added to the forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2...CAA behind Sunday night`s front will keep temperatures significantly cooler on Monday with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. A few shortwaves will move through late Monday and into Tuesday and bring the next chance for scattered light showers across the area. KEY MESSAGE 3...Upper ridging will move in on Tuesday and start a warming trend that will last through the rest of the week. On Tuesday, highs will range from the low/mid 60s inland to mid 50s/low 60s at the beaches. By Friday and Saturday, temperatures will range from the low 80s inland to low 60s at the beaches. Given the sharp temperature contrast between the cold waters and warm land, there`s potential for a few isolated showers to develop along any river/sound/sea breezes in the afternoons. KEY MESSAGE 4...Skies remain clear, and winds have become calm across ENC this evening. In addition to that, ample low level moisture remains in place after the previous days rain which has resulted in patchy ground fog developing across portions of ENC. Expect fog to continue to expand and potentially become thick at times with visibilities of less than a mile possible with the greatest threat coming after midnight tonight. Biggest challenge will be how widespread this fog gets, but current thinking is that areas along and east of Hwy 17 have the greatest chance at seeing dense fog. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aviation forecast overnight remains challenging, and features low confidence. Based on satellite and webcams, the FG being reported at times around ENC appears to be of the shallow variety. However, with good radiational cooling conditions, the potential of a more widespread, and impactful FG, still exists. However, it`s unclear when, or if, this will develop. For now, this uncertainty is reflected via TEMPO groups. If observations, satellite, and webcams begin to show evidence of a more impactful FG risk, the TAFs will be updated as appropriate. Stay tuned for amendments through the night. Any BR/FG should mix out by 13 or 14z Sunday morning, with VFR conditions then expected to prevail into Sunday afternoon. Late in the afternoon and into the evening hours, a cold front will move south through ENC. This is expected to occur between 20z-03z. The front will be accompanied by a north to northeast wind shift, and increasingly gusty winds. There may be just enough lift, moisture, and instability for a few SHRA to develop along the front. Should this occur, a quick drop in VIS can be expected. A band of MVFR/VFR CIGs are expected to accompany the front as well. Outlook: Behind Sunday`s front, high pressure will build in early next week, setting up a cool air wedge across the Carolinas. This pattern favors widespread sub-VFR conditions across ENC. Within this pattern, probabilistic guidance shows a 50-70% chance of IFR conditions from Monday night into Tuesday. Periods of -RA look to accompany the low CIGs as well. Improving aviation conditions are expected by the middle of next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show northerly winds at 10-20 kt with 3-4 ft seas. There`s potential for some 5-6 ft seas along the outer coastal waters between the capes through this evening, but these conditions are expected to be brief and isolated, so a SCA has not been issued. Tomorrow will have good boating conditions until the evening when a strong cold front will drop south across the area and bring a strong surge of northeasterly winds. After sunset, SCA winds will develop across the northern waters, expand southward through the overnight hours, and increase to 20-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. Northeast winds will continue to increase on Monday, peaking in the afternoon at 20-30 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt. The Pamlico Sound and the coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras have the best chance at seeing Gale force gusts on Monday. Seas will build in response, increasing to 6-8 ft Monday night and 6-11 ft on Monday (highest near the Gulf Stream waters). Winds will relax Monday night, but seas will be slow to subside and may not drop below 6 ft until Tuesday/Tuesday night. Therefore, SCAs have been issued for the Pamlico Sound and all coastal waters starting Sunday night. Given that the Gale force gusts are more than 36 hours out, strictly SCAs have been issued at this time but will likely need to be upgraded to a Gale Watch with the next cycle. Outlook: After headlines drop on Tuesday, the rest of the week should have good boating conditions with winds and seas remaining sub-SCA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Monday for AMZ131-230-231. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for AMZ137. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1261160 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:57 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1252 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Mostly dry conditions are forecast through next week, though isolated to scattered onshore-moving showers cannot be ruled out from Monday onward. - Beach and boating conditions deteriorate early next week as seas build due to persistent onshore winds. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 Current-Tonight...A cold front will continue slowly moving southward across the Florida peninsula this afternoon into the evening hours, with some showers and storms already developing along a remnant outflow boundary. Coverage is anticipated to increase through the afternoon hours across east central Florida, with short range guidance keying in on the greatest coverage being focused across the Treasure Coast and areas near and north of Lake Okeechobee. Rainfall totals around 1 inch will be possible, with areas that experience training or multiple rounds of rainfall likely seeing higher totals. Storm development is also anticipated with the activity this afternoon, with SPC highlighting Osceola to southern Brevard and all locations southward within a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather today. While the slow, southward-moving cold front will act as one component of forcing across the area today, the development and push inland of the east coast sea breeze will act as another. The sea breeze appears to be creeping inland south of the Cape based on radar, satellite, and surface observations. Scattered to broken cloud coverage across southern portions of east central Florida will continue to allow for sufficient daytime heating, which will help improve overall instability across the area ahead of the front. Modeled soundings show MUCAPE reaching 1000-1400 J/kg through this afternoon along with modestly steep low-level lapse rates, which will support convective development. While the column has moistened slightly compared to yesterday and DCAPE has decreased slightly (600- 800 J/kg), higher mid-level winds and modest mid-layer shear will support the potential for strong, marginally severe wind gusts. Additionally, 500 mb temperatures remain within the -13 to -12C range, and some hail with the strongest storms cannot be ruled out. Overall, convective hazards across the Treasure Coast and within vicinity of Lake Okeechobee continue to be frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Additionally, boundary interactions will be monitored closely for any rotation. West-southwest steering flow will push activity offshore through this afternoon into evening hours, with coverage gradually diminishing this evening across the area as the front pushes farther south. The front itself is forecast to exit east central Florida late tonight, with drier air filtering in from the north and resulting in near-zero rain chances across the peninsula. Some lingering activity will be possible across the local Atlantic waters. Slightly cooler air will also arrive from the north, with overnight lows falling into the 50s nearly areawide. Some locations across the Treasure Coast and along the Brevard coast will remain in the low 60s. Sunday...Tomorrow will act as a transition period as the mid- level trough associated with the cold front shifts offshore on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure begins building to the north of east central Florida, with winds becoming northeasterly. Wind speeds will be enhanced during the afternoon hours as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, with winds reaching 10-15 mph. While drier air will work its way across the peninsula, the onshore component of the winds combined with some lingering moisture associated with the front will lead to a low chance (20-30%) for onshore moving showers on Sunday, especially along southern Brevard and the Treasure Coast. Temperatures will be closer to normal Sunday afternoon, with highs generally in the 70s areawide. Lows fall into the low 50s to low 60s, with the cooler temperatures focused near and north of the I-4 corridor. Monday-Saturday...Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf and towards the Florida peninsula into next week, with a broad surface high setting up north of east central Florida across the Atlantic waters. Locally, this will result in prevailing onshore winds from Monday onward which will advect moist air towards east central Florida through the extended period. Shower development across the local Atlantic waters is forecast each day and there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) for some onshore-moving showers through the extended period, with the better chances primarily being highlighted by the NBM from Tuesday onward. It is too early to say whether any storms will accompany this activity, but the trends will continue to be closely monitored. Temperatures will gradually warm through the forecast period, reaching above normal values once again. The onshore flow will keep areas along the coast slightly cooler than the interior, where the warmer temperatures are anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A cold front will continue moving southward across the local Atlantic waters today, resulting in increasing rain and storm chances, especially south of Cape Canaveral. Activity across the peninsula will move offshore through this afternoon and into the overnight hours, with lingering activity possible late tonight. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, wind gusts in excess of 34 knots, and even coin-sized hail. Brief spin-ups cannot be ruled out where boundary interactions occur, but confidence in this remains low. Aside from the storms, boating conditions remain generally favorable with northerly winds 10-15 knots and seas of 2-5 feet through the overnight hours. Behind the front, high pressure begins to slowly build north of the local Atlantic waters. Winds become more easterly into Monday, increasing to 15-25 knots late Monday and continuing through late Tuesday. These winds speeds combined with the onshore component will result in building seas, with wave heights forecast to reach 5 to 10 feet late Monday through Tuesday. Seas slowly subside to 5 to 8 feet Wednesday, with lingering 7 foot seas across the offshore waters anticipated through late week. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for the poor to hazardous boating conditions, likely starting sometime on Monday and continuing through mid to late week. Rain chances will remain between 30-50% across the local Atlantic waters through mid to late week, and storm development cannot be ruled out, though there remains low confidence at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 1239 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 IFR/LIFR CIGs are ongoing and are forecast to continue through Sunday morning. Models are beginning to indicate fog development near LEE early this morning, so have a TEMPO through 08Z for 2SM BKN002. North to northeast winds 5-10 knots tonight will turn NE and increase to 10-14KT with 15-20 KT gusts along the coast by mid morning Sunday. Winds are then forecast to become light overnight, except along the coast from TIX southward, where winds will be around 10 KT. CIGs are forecast to gradually improve to VFR at all terminals between 16Z-18Z and remain through the rest of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 150 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 A cold front will continue moving southward across east central Florida this afternoon and evening, with scattered showers and storms forecast. Coverage is forecast to increase through the afternoon hours, with the highest coverage focused near the Treasure Coast and areas north of Lake Okeechobee. Storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, which along with the gusty winds, could spark new fires or agitate currently active fires. Shower and storm activity will push offshore through the evening hours as the front moves south of the area, with drier conditions anticipated overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 56 76 60 / 0 0 10 10 MCO 77 58 79 62 / 0 0 10 10 MLB 76 61 77 63 / 10 10 20 30 VRB 77 61 78 63 / 20 20 20 30 LEE 78 55 80 60 / 0 0 10 10 SFB 76 57 80 61 / 0 0 10 10 ORL 77 58 80 62 / 0 0 10 10 FPR 77 61 78 62 / 20 20 20 30 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1261159 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:54 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Dense fog is expected across far southeast Mississippi, coastal sections of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle, along with south central Alabama mainly along and southeast of Interstate 65. - Above normal temperatures will continue through much of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Surface high pressure centered over the forecast area has created ideal radiational cooling conditions as well as a favorable environment for the development of dense radiational fog. Dewpoint depressions (the difference between the temperature and dewpoint) continue to shrink and fog should begin developing over the next few hours. The most likely time period for dense fog over a widespread area will be after 3am through sunrise. Visibilities will likely drop to one quarter of a mile or less across areas covered by the dense fog advisory areas. Patchy fog, some which could be locally dense will be possible even in areas outside of the current advisory but should not be as impactful or widespread. The dense fog should extend into area bays and sounds along with the near coastal waters as weak offshore drainage flow will likely develop late tonight into Sunday morning. The highest potential will be Mobile Bay and portions of the Mississippi Sound. These areas will be slower to erode on Sunday morning due to the relatively colder water temperatures in place. Therefore the marine dense fog advisory extends through 11am across Mobile Bay and Mississippi Sound. The remainder of the forecast looks on track and no additional updates have been made this evening. Updated forecast products and hazards have been sent. /JLH && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 An upper level northwest flow will become zonal through Monday with upper ridging building across the area through the middle of next week. Light winds, clear skies and surface cooling will allow for another round of patchy dense fog late tonight. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail through the middle of the week. Above normal warm weather will be here to stay for the foreseeable future as highs stay in the middle to upper 70s this weekend before returning to lower and middle 80s for next week. Lows will be in the middle 40s to lower 50s this weekend before returning back to middle 50s to lower 60s mid to late next week. A Low risk of rip currents today will continue through Monday, becoming a High risk for strong rip currents once again Tuesday and at least a Moderate risk continuing into Wednesday. Rain chances increase late in the week as moisture returns to the area. /13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Patchy to areas of dense fog will continue to gradually develop over the next few hours across much of southwest and south-central Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. This will reduce visibility and ceilings as low as LIFR and even VLIFR flight category at times through 13-14Z. Fog gradually lifts through mid morning with flight category improving back to VFR for the day Sunday. Winds will remain calm to light and variable. /22 && .MARINE... Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A light easterly to northeasterly flow today becomes easterly Sunday. Light to moderate easterly flow Monday becomes moderate to strong southeasterly flow late Monday night into Tuesday. Light to occasionally moderate southeasterly flow continues the rest of the week. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 76 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 73 54 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 Destin 72 55 72 56 / 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 77 48 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 76 48 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Camden 73 48 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 Crestview 77 47 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for ALZ055>060- 261>266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for FLZ201>206. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for MSZ078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM CST Sunday for GMZ630>632. Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ633>636- 650-655. && $$ |
| #1261157 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1240 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06z Aviation discussion. Probabilities for snow and freezing rain continue to decrease for the early week system. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Remaining mild this weekend. Areas of fog developing along the coast late this evening. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. 2) Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. 3) A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 PM EST Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining mild this weekend. Areas of fog developing along the coast late this evening. However, temperatures are likely to abruptly fall into the 40s and 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast of eastern Virginia and the Lower Eastern Shore. Latest analysis reveals a coastal trough lingering offshore of the Carolina coast early this afternoon, with marine stratus draped along the immediate coast and offshore. Farther inland, stratus that lingered over the piedmont for much of the morning into the early afternoon has eroded, leaving a mainly clear/sunny sky across the region on very light winds. Remaining mainly clear into late this evening. Still a decent signal for areas of marine stratus/dense fog to recur along the eastern shore and VA/NE NC coastal plain. Sunday will begin with light southwest flow ahead and another chance for above normal temperatures ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front. Still looking like the front drops across the region through Sunday afternoon, leading to abruptly falling temperatures and a large northeast-southwest gradient in high temps across our CWA. Regardless of the timing of the front, well above temperatures are forecast for most of the area, albeit briefly for northern areas. Behind the backdoor cold front, temps abruptly drop into the 40s & 50s Sunday afternoon along the coast, and for the rest of the area Sunday night. This will be quite the shock in the wake of this weekend`s spring-like highs. Cooler overnight Sunday with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. There has also been an increasing signal for a few light showers Sunday evening. 12z/28 CAMS (mainly RRFS/time-lagged HRRR/HREF) have shown some semblance of scattered showers developing along the front, as it drops across south central and southeast VA late tomorrow afternoon into early Sunday evening. Accordingly, while sub-cloud layer remains rather dry, did add a 20% PoP for a few isolated showers mainly south of I-64 tomorrow afternoon. KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor impacts are possible from light snow and sleet or freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but probabilities for any accumulation continue to trend down. A more unsettled pattern will start next week off, with additional chances for precipitation. High pressure across the Great Lakes region on Sunday will gradually slide eastwards over the Northeast and wedge down across the Mid- Atlantic. This is typically a favorable location for a high in regards to possible winter weather, but the depth of the cold air and how quickly the high shifts offshore will be very important in determining the precip type as a series of shortwaves move through aloft Monday into early Tuesday. Snow or even sleet and freezing rain are possible over portions of the area depending on the depth of the cold air late Monday into early Tuesday. The past few model suites, including the latest 12z/28 suite have depicted the high to our north becoming increasingly progressive with time. Thus, the colder air does not stay in place long across the area, and probabilities for both ice and snow accumulation continue to drop with the 12z guidance. Due to these lowering probabilities and very marginal thermal profile during this time frame, minimal snow remains in the forecast at this point for Monday afternoon and early evening, and have capped PoPs at ~20-30%. With that being said, probabilities for light freezing rain/ice accretion have come up a bit over the VA Piedmont counties along US-15. Some very light overrunning moisture could well be present Mon night into Tue morning, and some spotty light freezing rain or freezing drizzle could create some slick spots, especially on untreated and elevated surfaces for the Tuesday morning commute. We will continue to monitor this system for any changes in amounts/evolution/timing and adjust the forecast as necessary. KEY MESSAGE 3...A significant warming trend is possible by the middle and end of next week. The good news is that after the cooler start to the week, some warmer weather is on they way. Ensemble guidance continues to depicting a large, anomalous upper level ridge building over the eastern U.S, w/850 mb temperature anomalies building well above average. If this set-up comes to fruition, temperatures will rise to well above normal, with highs potentially reaching the lower to mid 70s by late next week and lows only in the upper 40s to near 50F. By next weekend, some guidance is edging very close to the 80F mark for inland areas. While there is good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern, there is always a chance that the colder airmass associated with the backdoor cold front over-stays its welcome and keeps temperatures cooler than forecast. Have continued to maintain well above normal temperatures late week and into the weekend, as there is not much support at this time for a lingering cooler airmass. A series of weak fronts bring low-end chances for showers toward the end of next week as well, but widespread rainfall is not expected. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 AM EST Sunday... ECG and PHF are already observing the development of some patchy fog this morning, so have included BR in those TAFs through around or just after sunrise. Cannot count out fog development at the other sites, so we will continue to monitor VIS over the next few hours and amend if necessary. Otherwise, generally light southwest winds will continue through the afternoon before shifting to the N/NE and increasing as a backdoor cold front moves through the area. Gusts of around 20 kts are expected for a few hours this afternoon/evening in the wake of the front, but will trend downwards overnight. There is a chance for a few showers along the front, mainly at the southern terminals, but confidence is too low to include any mention of them at this time. Outlook: High pressure builds down into the region Sunday night into Monday as several disturbances pass through. These are likely to bring additional periods of light precip for the beginning of next week and potential flight restrictions. A brief period of wintry precipitation is possible at RIC/SBY Monday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 250 PM EST Saturday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions with relatively light flow from high pressure over the area through Sunday morning. - SCAs have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound as a backdoor cold front from strong high pressure to the NE crosses the waters Sunday afternoon. Latest wx analysis shows high pressure over the area this afternoon with a lingering upper trough, with subsequent surface stationary front, offshore to the SE. The high pressure over the area allows for relatively light N/NE winds around 5-10 kt. Waves and seas are currently ~1 ft in the Ches. Bay and 2-3 ft in the coastal waters. Winds will become S/SW tonight still around 5-10 kt ahead of the next cold front approaching from the N. Marine fog/ low stratus clouds could develop overnight across the coastal waters and Ches. Bay as dewpoints reach near water temps (mid to upper 30s) with light winds. Will continue to monitor trends and cameras for the possibility of needing Marine Dense Fog Advisories. Beginning Sunday afternoon for the middle Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters, the backdoor cold front drops across the local waters. Models continue to show a strong (~1040 mb), progressive high pressure to the north of the area pushing CAA over the waters, as well as fairly strong pressure rises, Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Latest CAM models trends the cold front moving through the area slightly fast, now with backdoor front crossing the middle Ches. Bay and northern coastal waters Sunday afternoon, and crossing the NC coastal waters Sunday evening. Elevated N/NE winds around 15-20 kt and gusts to 25 kt are expected through Monday morning. An initial burst with the front could have gusts up to 30 kt. The upper rivers are more marginal, due to the wind direction. Seas will increase to 4-5 ft N and 5-7 ft S, and waves to 3-4 ft, peaking late Sunday into early Monday morning. With this, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay, coastal waters, lower James River and Currituck Sound, with staggering start times from N to S beginning Sunday afternoon. 5 ft seas will likely linger into Monday afternoon in the southern waters. Then, benign marine conditions return for the week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ632>634-638-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ656-658. && $$ |
| #1261156 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1238 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and the upcoming week...chance of daily showers, mainly over the interior. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Rather stagnant pattern across the forecast area through the forecast period. A weak U/L trough currently over the state will exit east of the region early next week, with a strong subtropical ridge building over the southeast U.S. and Florida...which will hold over the area through the end of the period. W/V satellite imagery indicates that a weak U/L disturbance is moving across the Florida peninsula ATTM and will bring a chance of showers early this morning across southwest Florida, which is where the best available deep layer moisture exists. Otherwise, areas of low clouds and patchy fog will develop across the forecast area the remainder of the overnight hours and will lift a few hours after sunrise Sunday morning. The disturbance will push east of the region today with some drier air aloft advecting over the region. As the U/L subtropical ridge builds over the forecast area early next week, strong surface high pressure over the northeast U.S. will build down the coast and over the Florida peninsula. This will create rather gusty northeast to east flow off the Atlantic and across the Florida peninsula. Even as the center of high pressure exits across the western and central Atlantic mid week, it will continue to extend over the Florida peninsula. Convergent L/L flow off the Atlantic will generate scattered showers which will push onshore the east coast of Florida through much of the upcoming week. During the afternoon hours each day...as the atmosphere in the lower levels destabilizes, the shower activity may advect from the eastern peninsula to the interior peninsula, and potentially making it`s way all the way over to the west coast. This will be diurnally driven by surface heating with shower activity ending shortly after sunset each day. Due to the strong subtropical ridge and large scale subsidence building over the forecast area, temperatures will run well above climatic normals through the period. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 80s...with some areas in the upper 80s by the end of the week. Low temperatures will be in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Areas of low ceilings and patchy fog will impact all terminals of west central and southwest Florida through the early morning hours with areas of IFR CIGs and MVFR VSBYs developing, with LCL LIFR CIGs. A few showers may also develop across southwest Florida and briefly impact FMY/RSW/PGD, although similar ceilings/vsbys will persist. Clouds will lift at PIE/TPA/SRQ/LAL a few hours after sunrise with VFR conditions and SCT035-045 expected. Mostly cloudy skies will likely prevail today at PGD/FMY/RSW with VFR CIGs 035-045. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 High pressure will hold over the waters through the period. The gradient will tighten a bit early next week, with an evening surge of easterly winds each day which could reach SCEC levels for a few hours. Otherwise, no headlines are expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1206 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Sufficient low level moisture will hold over the region for the next several days which will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. No fire weather hazards are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 61 82 63 / 0 0 10 0 FMY 83 63 84 64 / 30 20 20 10 GIF 79 59 82 62 / 10 0 20 10 SRQ 80 61 82 63 / 10 0 10 0 BKV 81 51 84 55 / 0 0 10 0 SPG 79 63 82 65 / 0 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1261155 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1237 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Looking slightly drier on Sunday with lesser snowfall totals expected. Confidence is increasing that snow will change to a wintry mix and rain late Tuesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning very cold behind the Arctic front Sunday night into Monday - Areas of light snow and snow showers likely on Sunday with dry air preventing significant accumulations - Trending above normal temperatures Wednesday through Saturday. Becoming unsettled with a prolonged risk for periodic precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1...Turning very cold behind the Arctic front Sunday night into Monday Quick bout of mild weather this afternoon and evening comes to an end as a weak front moves through overnight. A stronger arctic front moves through Sunday, knocking highs back into the 30s. Coldest temps occur overnight Sunday as the core of the cold moves overhead. Winds will decrease Sunday night with the center of arctic high pressure moving in; however, the wind chill index will likely be below zero across interior Southern New England. High temperatures on Monday will be quite cold for March standards, only topping out in the low to mid-20s. Arctic air remains in place Monday night with low temperatures once again bottoming out in the single digits. Little to no wind is expected Monday night, limiting the wind chill factor. Key Message 2...Areas of light snow and snow showers likely on Sunday with dry air preventing significant accumulations Earlier model uncertainty and spread has narrowed somewhat with regards to Sunday`s snowfall forecast. Ensemble QPF totals for the 12 and 18z model cycles have fallen significantly and now range from 0.10-0.20 at the 25th and 75th percentiles respectively. These changes have been largely the result of individual deterministic models resolving a drier air aloft ahead of a strong area of high pressure approaching from the W later Sunday. Upper level forcing also seems to be limited to the cold front itself, with the parent shortwave staying in northern New England. However, 850 mb FGEN will be quite strong given the intense temperature gradient. Given these changes, the snowfall forecast remains nearly unchanged, with a widespread trace to 1 inch expected across much of Southern New England, with some spots seeing perhaps 2-3 inches at the worst. The most likely spots to see the higher totals will be the high terrain across the northern Berkshires and Worcester hills. Snow will move from west to east on Sunday, starting in the mid to late morning and moving offshore around sunset. Given the lack of stronger forcing, hourly snow rates will be light, under a half inch per hour. Key Message 3...Trending above normal temperatures Wednesday through Saturday. Becoming unsettled with a prolonged risk for periodic precipitation. Below normal temperatures expected Monday as the core of an arctic airmass lingers over our region. After then, temperatures should be near normal for Tuesday, before trending above normal for Wednesday into Saturday. By late next week, most of southern New England could actually remain above freezing all day and night. This will have implications for precipitation type. It appears that our region will be in the vicinity of some frontal boundaries that shift back and forth across our region. This will lead to a prolonged period for precipitation chances, but it will not be actually precipitating this entire time. Within this larger period, we`re more focused on two smaller periods with a greater risk. The first of these looks to be sometime Tuesday into Wednesday, which is when a weak low pressure should move past our region. The timing is not as certain with a high pressure expected over the North Atlantic. This pattern tends to slow the arrival of precipitation, or could even shift the focus over northern New England instead. At present, this looks like a light-snow-to-rain scenario given the recent arctic air. The later the precipitation holds off, the more likely rain would be the primary type. Snow would be most likely to linger across the higher terrain of the Berkshires and the northern Worcester Hills. The second period we`re more focused on looks to be sometime Thursday into Friday. Our region gets caught between a pair of fronts. By that time though, it currently appears that we would remain warm enough for a light rainfall across southern New England. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Sunday...Moderate Confidence. Generally MVFR cigs as the chance for some light snow showers increases late Sunday morning into the early afternoon. Light snow moves from W to E between 14 and 18z then gradually comes to an end between 19 and 21z from W-E. Not expecting much accumulation with this system with up to 1 inch possible across the region. Confidence is moderate. Sunday Night through Monday...Moderate Confidence. Conditions return to VFR after the -SN moves offshore. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 15-16z and departing 20-21z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR. NW-ly winds 5-10 knots. Expecting -SN arrival 14-15z and departing 19-20z. Light accumulation near 1 inch possible. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: VFR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA likely, chance SN. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Monday Morning...High confidence. Northerly winds begin to increase to near 25 knots tonight into Monday morning, with seas building to 5 feet across the outer waters where SCA`s have been issued. Chance of light to moderate freezing spray across the inner waters Monday night into late Monday afternoon. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, chance of snow. Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain. Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ250-254>256. && $$ |
| #1261154 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1131 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week. - Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. - Increasing rain chances mid week and next weekend? && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Light patchy morning fog will give way to partly cloudy skies by early afternoon. Late night and early morning fog will be possible at times through the period. However, winds will be elevated keeping the airmass mixed, thus patchy fog and visibilities generally above 4SM. Otherwise, unseasonably warm conditions will continue into next week with temperatures remaining around 10-15 degrees above normal. Rain chances will remain very low through Tuesday due to a mid to upper level high pressure system over Mexico. Models have been consistent with the high pressure shifting east Monday through Tuesday as a deepening upper low moves southeastward from the Pacific NW. This will result in a southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves tracking across the region. A moderate to strong low level jet will usher deeper moisture into S TX with PWATs increasing to 1.2-1.5 inches by mid week. The deeper moisture, moderate instability, and a mid level short wave will be conducive for convective development, leading to a low to medium (20-30%) chance of rain by the middle of next week. Rain fall amounts are expected to less than 0.10 of an inch across the northern portions of S TX. Models are showing another potential for rain next weekend. The question is, will the cap be too strong for any rain? && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 MVFR to IFR CIGS noted at ALI and VCT currently, but satellite depiction indicates the band of lowest stratus is about to move past ALI and could see an improvement there for a few hours before MVFR CIGS likely develop once again. Think VIS reductions are largely not going to be an issue tonight with more wind just above the surface...and in some locations mixing down to the surface. Expect winds to remain a bit elevated - toward 10kt - through the night for all sites. VFR conditions return for the daytime Sunday before CIGS will begin to redevelop overnight. Winds again look like they will remain up a bit Sunday night to limit fog. && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A moderate (BF 4) breeze will continue into early next week. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week. There is a 10-20% chance of showers Monday through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds through Monday. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by next Tuesday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. Chances for rain will be low through next Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 81 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 89 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 76 68 / 0 0 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261153 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:36 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1222 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 - Patchy dense fog possible early this morning, mainly across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida. - Smoke from wildfire activity may create dangerous driving conditions across portions of I-75, Tamiami Trail, and SR-29 today. - Increasing northeasterly flow early next week will lead to an increased rip current risk and potentially hazardous marine conditions across Atlantic waters. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 A decaying frontal boundary sits over the South Florida region early this morning and will remain across the area as it continues to fizzle out. This will lead to a chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms periodically throughout today and tomorrow. Thunderstorm chances will be maximized during the afternoon hours with peak diurnal heating, although coastal showers will be possible through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday as well. On Monday, the surface pressure gradient begins to tighten as surface high pressure becomes established across the Southeast CONUS. This will lead to breezier northeast winds beginning late Monday afternoon into Monday evening, especially for the immediate east coast. High temperatures today and tomorrow will reach the low to mid 80s with lows in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Breezy northeast flow continues through at least mid-week as the surface pressure gradient remains tight. There will be a chance (30- 40%) for showers each day through the period as ample moisture remains with highest chances across local Atlantic waters and along the immediate east coast due to the breezier east-northeast flow. Surface flow veers more easterly towards the end of the week as surface high pressure across the western Atlantic builds westward. High temperatures should remain in the low 80s for east coast metro areas, however due to the long duration easterly flow, a warming trend is expected for interior and Southwest Florida and highs could approach the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the work-week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Generally VFR for the period. Another round of low CIGs will be possible for KAPF early this morning, along with an outside chance for lower CIGs for some of the east coast terminals. Confidence is fairly low for impacts at east coast sites, but was comfortable keeping FEW005 for the chance for isolated patchy fog. By 15-16Z, winds increase out of the NE to around 10 kts for the day. Thunderstorms develop around eastern terminals between 17-18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Outside of locally elevated seas and winds in and around any shower or thunderstorm activity, conditions will remain benign across all local waters through the remainder of the weekend. Locally dense fog may occur this morning across the nearshore Gulf and Lake Okeechobee waters, which will result in lower visibilities than normal. The development of a pressure gradient next week will act to establish a breezy to at times gusty easterly wind flow across the region during the beginning of next week. This will usher in a duration of likely Advisory conditions across the Atlantic waters during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026 Low risk for rip currents across all local beaches today, however the risk is poised to increase early next week as breezy northeasterly flow develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 81 68 79 69 / 40 40 20 20 West Kendall 83 64 82 66 / 40 40 20 20 Opa-Locka 82 67 81 68 / 50 40 20 20 Homestead 82 68 80 69 / 40 30 20 20 Fort Lauderdale 78 68 77 68 / 50 40 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 78 68 78 68 / 50 30 20 20 Pembroke Pines 83 67 82 68 / 50 40 20 20 West Palm Beach 78 67 78 68 / 40 30 20 30 Boca Raton 79 67 79 68 / 50 30 20 20 Naples 81 63 82 64 / 20 20 20 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1261152 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:15 AM 01.Mar.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1109 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 - Significantly warmer than normal temperatures will be the rule for at least the next 7 to 10 days. - Patchy fog with some locally dense fog possible again tonight across portions of southeast Louisiana and south Mississippi. A dense fog advisory has been issued for areas east of I-55 and along/south of the I-10/I-12 corridor. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon during the middle to latter part of next week. While overall rain totals are forecast to be low, a few heavier storms could provide much-needed rain to localized areas. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Biggest short term concern is the potential for fog. While guidance is still a little varied on how dense the fog will be, generally there has been increasing probabilities, especially for areas closer to water and the coastal LA/MS. Due to this, issued a dense fog advisory for early tomorrow morning. Areas outside of the dense fog advisory could still see some patchy fog. Thinking the fog should dissipate relatively quickly after sunrise similar to yesterday. Otherwise, no rain concerns through Monday and high temperatures continue to be well above normal (easily 7-10 degrees) for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 A more zonal flow pattern will begin to set up around Tuesday with a few shortwaves passing through the area Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday will be the next chance for the area to see showers and storms. Right now with PW being right around average and the better dynamics located northwest of us into the ArkLaTex region, thinking any potential for heavy rain will be very limited. Global models are hinting at a strong deepening trough entering the CONUS Thursday into Friday. There`s still some of uncertainty especially being at the tail end of the forecast period, but with this kind of pattern change, plenty of gulf moisture will be pumped inland. So it`s a signal for a much more wet pattern for this coming weekend and next week. How much and how big of an impact it would be still remains to be seen, so keep an eye on future forecasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 VFR conditions should prevail for a little while longer before fog entering the area will cause bounces into MVFR/IFR or lower, especially for terminals closer to water and closer to the coast. Cannot completely rule out fog elsewhere but it should generally be more patchy and light. For the rest, fog, dense at times, is forecasted for the early morning hours. It should clear out by mid morning at the latest and return to VFR conditions then. && .MARINE... Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Benign conditions will settle over the coastal waters for the rest of the weekend. Light northeasterly to easterly winds will prevail through Monday before shifting to a stronger onshore flow starting Tuesday where cautionary headlines may be needed. Low chances of rain return for the offshore waters around mid week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for LAZ039- 056>060-064>071-076>082-087>090. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for MSZ077- 083>088. GM...None. && $$ |
