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| #1225336 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 838 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 837 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The previous forecast appears to be on track. No major changes were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Afternoon convection is currently firing up over southeast Georgia. Development could extend as far west as I-75 in south Georgia through sunset. Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg exists in this part of Georgia. Given that aspect and the generally breezy southerly flow, storms will be capable of thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to near 50 mph until after sunset. Otherwise, the muggy air mass will support some fog development tonight. The gusty wind fields could help keep some of it stirred into a low stratus, as opposed to fog. Nonetheless, northeast Gulf water temperatures are still in the 67-71 degree range, so areas of sea fog are possible near the coast late tonight and Thursday morning. A similarly warm or hot afternoon as today is expected on Thursday, with the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor most likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Little sensible change is expected in the weather compared with tonight and Thursday. A very strong 500 mb high will be centered over the Atlantic east of the Georgia Bight. 500 mb heights in excess of 5900 meters will extend west across the service area, keeping conditions capped with temperatures running well above normal. Friday should overall be the hottest day of the week, with 90+ degree reading fairly common over inland areas. Southerly breezes will continue, with strong afternoon seabreezes at the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A highly amplified upper trough will pass across the central U.S. this weekend, as a potent southern stream trough phases with a northern stream upper trough. This will push sharp and strong spring cold front across the region on Sunday night and Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front, and SPC has already placed our region in their Day 5 outlook. Indeed, ensemble data shows weak convective instability in the pre-frontal environment, with somewhat strong bulk shear of about 40-50 knots. With the incoming upper trough, there will be upper height falls and some larger scale lift at work too. Behind the front, a significant change in the air mass will take place. We will go from our current warm/hot and muggy air mass to a cool and dry air mass. The coldest nights will be next Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with widespread low temps in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Sea fog is expected to affect locations near the coast later this evening and overnight. Some IFR conditions will be possible further inland, although low ceilings seem more likely than fog if winds stay up as expected. Conditions improve to VFR again tomorrow morning with breezy southerly flow expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The strong afternoon seabreeze that is being observed in Bay County supports issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the new St. Andrews Bay marine zone, valid until sunset. SCAs for Saint Andrews Bay will likely be needed again each afternoon through at least Saturday, thanks to the seabreeze superimposing on the already fresh background southerly winds. From CWF synopsis... Strong high pressure east of Florida and low pressure over Texas will support moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes through Saturday, with strong nearshore afternoon seabreezes. The muggy air mass will support patches of sea fog. A sharp late season cold front will cross the waters on Sunday night and Monday, followed by moderate to fresh northerly breezes on Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts. Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50 percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next wetting rain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The next round of widespread wetting rains will come with the passage of a cold front, from Sunday into Monday night. Storm- total rainfall is currently forecast to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range. In response, modest rises are likely on area rivers next week, but rivers will stay well within their banks. This much rain will only bring potential for local runoff issues in poor drainage areas. Therefore, flooding is unlikely for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 68 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 76 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735. && $$ |
| #1225334 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, CLIMATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Convection has come to an end this evening with the lose of daytime heating. After the record hot day, overnight lows may break or tie the record low maximums in the upper 60s. Low stratus and patchy fog develops across the area after midnight and lingers into sunrise. && .NEAR TERM... (This afternoon, Tonight and Thursday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Southeast winds continue to increase to 15-20G25-30 mph as warm front lifts north of the region and expect the last of the sea fog and low level stratus along the SE GA coastal counties to scour out and dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise near record warmth in the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas will combine with low level instability as dew points reach into the lower 70s and the inland moving East Coast sea breeze to develop scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly over inland SE GA to the west of the US 301 corridor, but isolated convection is possible across inland NE FL as well. Temps still cool enough aloft to kick off a few strong storms with gusty winds/small hail into the evening hours around sunset. Tonight...SE winds diminish to 5-10 mph over inland areas under mostly clear skies late this evening, with light enough winds and low level moisture for patchy fog/low stratus formation again towards morning, but likely low level flow too much to allow for widespread dense fog formation. Above normal low temps in the 65-70F inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Thursday...Breezy SE to S flow at 15-20G25-30 mph will continue to bring near record warmth and humidity to the region as Max temps push to around 90F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coast in the lower/middle 80s. Slightly drier airmass aloft should limit any daytime convection with rainfall chances generally 10% or less, although cannot rule out a brief and/or isolated shower along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland through the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Winds continue out of the south to southeast as high pressure ridging, under a ridge aloft, continues over the area bringing unseasonably high temperatures. Winds out of the southeast will allow the sea-breeze to make its way inland in the afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler for coastal areas. High daytime temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to low 90s Friday over inland areas with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s closest to the Atlantic coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60s over inland southeast Georgia with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over inland northeast Florida. Wind coming in off the Atlantic will help keep temperatures slightly warmer along the coast. Fog will be possible overnight into the morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over the weekend with lows in the 60s. Going into next week, a cold front will make its way into the area from the northwest. As the front approaches the area, chances for rain and possibly a few storms will begin to increase starting as early as Sunday evening through Monday. Showers may linger into Tuesday depending on front timing. Temperatures will cool off behind the passing front to bring temperatures down to near normal then below normal into mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Breezy SE winds will last longer than usual this evening with no significant decrease until the 03-05Z time frame, and about this time expect MVFR stratus deck to develop around 1500 feet and progress northward and impact all TAF sites, even developing at IFR levels at SSI and trending downward towards sunrise with MVFR VSBYS possible along with a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGS at the NE FL TAF sites. Lower conditions will lift to MVFR/VFR levels in the 13-15Z time. Breezy SE winds develop again after 15Z with sustained winds 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Southeast flow around high pressure ridge through the end of the week will average out in the 15-20 knot range with seas building into the 4 to 6 feet range, so will place SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines in the forecast this package. Flow becomes south this weekend at similar speeds as the ridge axis pushes further southward and more offshore into the Western Atlantic, so SCEC headlines look likely to continue. Flow becomes Southwest ahead of the next cold frontal boundary on Monday and may reach close to SCA levels late in the day into Monday Night. Otherwise...Dense sea fog from late this morning along the SE GA coast has scoured out and dissipated early this afternoon as Southeast winds have increased and have canceled the dense fog advisories, BUT will need to monitor for possible re-development late tonight into early Thursday morning over the nearshore waters if the winds slacken off. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rips will continue in the southeast flow through Friday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over southeast Georgia but, could get down into the Suwannee Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds continue out of the northeast into Friday, allowing the Atlantic sea-breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. Expect sustained winds of 15-20 mph east of HWY-17 today and tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph as the sea-breeze makes its way in. Warming temperatures with high transport winds will create patchy high daytime dispersion over inland areas today through Friday. MinRH values are not expected to drop below 38 through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Alma, GA broke its daily record high today with a high temperature of 89 F. Previous record was 88 F set in 2017. Gainesville, FL tied its daily record high today with a high of 92 F. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 90 90 90 90 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 89 90 91 90 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 88 91 87 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 91 91 90 90 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 90 66 88 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 68 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 85 68 83 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 67 92 66 91 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 68 92 66 91 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225333 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:21 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 702 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong winds over the forecast area today are slowly beginning to settle, but are expected to remain gusty into the early evening. Have extended the Wind Advisory for a couple of hours, until 9pm, due to the winds still gusting to over 30mph over and near the advisory area. The rest of the forecast is on track at this time, with the tidal cycle on the downswing. Have the the coastal flood advisory expire. /16 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southwest Atlantic into the southeast. This will keep the frontal boundary and associated severe weather risk well to our northwest through the near term. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will continue to increase. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low to mid 80s in many locations with some upper 80s possible in inland areas. Breezy conditions this afternoon will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday and a wind advisory may be needed again. The coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 pm this evening as water heights are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight offshore and across coastal areas. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13 Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, the severe threat is still a potential. However, everything seems to be a tick out of phase with this and so while we cannot rule out some stronger storms, the overall risk does not seem to line up just yet. For now we will continue to keep a eye on it. Things cool off behind the front as temperatures drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s for lows early next week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Southeast to southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots over the forecast area is bringing IFR to low end MVFR CIGS to most of the area. Winds will settle into the overnight hours, with fog development becoming possible after 06z/1am tonight. Stronger winds are expected Thursday, with LLWS being possible over most of the forecast area. A moist airmass in place combined with strong low level dynamics will contribute to IFR/MVFR CIGs over the forecast area again. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225332 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 804 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong Atlantic high pressure will prevail into this weekend, then a cold front will move through Monday. High pressure will then rebuild. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Early this evening: Afternoon convection has either dissipated or shifted inland. With the loss of diurnal heating, instability is waning and we should remain stable through the overnight which will keep the forecast dry. High pressure remains centered just off the New England coast which will drive persistent onshore flow through tonight. Low-level flow will remain up through the night, likely preventing full decoupling and helping to limit any fog potential. However, guidance is still highlighting portions of southeast GA so we have maintained the mention of patchy fog there. There is greater confidence in the development of stratus overnight, which will produce mostly cloudy skies and combined with the onshore flow will keep temperatures elevated. Lows are expected to only fall into the upper 60s for most areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deep layered ridging over the Eastern United States and western Atlantic will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures. A prevailing southerly flow will help enhance the afternoon sea breeze each day, so locations closer to the coast will remain considerably cooler than places farther inland. Highs inland will reach the mid to upper 80s each day, with a few readings in the lower 90s possible closer to the Central Savannah River Area (CSRA). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging will continue through Sunday, then a longwave trough will sweep east Monday, pushing a strong cold front through the area. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Monday, then temps cool down considerably for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The 00z TAF period begins with mostly VFR conditions across the area, though there are some patches of MVFR ceilings around. VFR is mostly expected for the next several hours before the potential for stratus develop increases from around midnight after. Prevailing MVFR ceilings are expected at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV and have been timed into the TAF`s around 04-06z. IFR ceilings can`t be ruled out at any of the 3 TAF sites, but the best chances appear to be at KSAV which is where they are included beginning at 07z. A return to VFR isn`t expected until as early as midday or by the early afternoon. South winds will be breezy Thursday, beginning in the late morning. Frequent gusts up around 20 knots can be expected. Extended Aviation Outlook: Nighttime ceiling restrictions possible Thursday night. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure across Bermuda will continue to dominate with increasing south to southeasterly flow across the coastal waters. Winds of 10 to 15 knots will be common with some higher gusts, while seas build into the 3 to 5 foot range. Fairly quiet marine conditions expected Thursday through Saturday. Southerly flow will strengthen Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough approaches from the west. 6 ft seas could encroach on the outer portions of the offshore GA and nearshore SC waters. Sunday and Sunday night we could see 25 kt wind gusts in the Charleston nearshore waters and Charleston Harbor, so Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225331 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:15 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 805 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this afternoon, with high pressure shifting offshore of the New England coast. A deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper ridging building over the srn Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A warm front continues to approach the FA from the south and temps are generally in the 60s across central, south, and southeast portions of the FA...but are struggling to get out of the 50s in the Piedmont and eastern shore thanks to lower cloud cover and an onshore component to the flow. The strong low moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be warm so we`ll likely have a capping inversion to contend with. As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the eastern shore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing temperatures possible Tuesday night. The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front. Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing temps possible in spots. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR currently prevails at all area terminals this evening, but CIGs are lowering to 3000-4000 ft (from W to E) as a warm front lifts N through the region. Low-end MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely overnight, with IFR most likely at RIC and SBY. Will carry 1000-1500 ft CIGs at ORF, PHF, and ECG, but there is some potential for IFR at these terminals as well. Have IFR CIGs starting at 07z at RIC and 12z at SBY. No fog is expected as winds remain around 10 kt through the night. Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area. SE winds of around 10 kt veer to the SW on Thursday, with gusts of 20-30 kt possible in the afternoon. There is a low chance for a shower or tstm late Thu afternoon and evening N of RIC and perhaps at SBY, but confidence is much too low for TAF mention at this time. Outlook: Mainly dry conditions continue into Thu night, other than a low-end shower/tstm chance across the far N. A backdoor front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the area. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. Afternoon weather analysis shows 1034mb high pressure just off the coast of New England and a sub 990mb low pressure across central Iowa. Over the past couple of hours the pressure gradient from these two systems has tightened and winds speeds have begun to increase across the local waters. Winds this afternoon are between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft in the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. Winds this evening are progged to shift from E-SE this afternoon to SE by this evening with sustained winds at or just above 15 kt and gusts at or just slightly above 20 kt. Seas are not expected to rise much and stay close to 3 to 4 ft across the bay and ocean. However, latest guidance shows 5 ft seas building across the two northern ocean zones this evening and lasting through Thursday evening. With these ingredients lining up Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the rivers, bay, and two ocean zones. The rivers are expected to drop off later tonight as winds decrease, however, the bay will last through the early morning hours of Thursday. The two ocean zones do not come into affect until later this evening when the seas start to increase. These two zones last till 00z Friday. However, they could potentially need to be extended due to seas remaining elevated. By Thursday, high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where again SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A back door cold front is progged to move along the coast Friday. The S-SW winds will diminish ahead of the front, and will shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225330 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:12 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 706 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above temperatures Thursday afternoon, reaching into the 100s along the Rio Grande - Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through Thursday night With the 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest, this places much of Texas under southwest flow aloft, keeping our mid-to-upper levels dry. At the surface and 850 hPa, higher dewpoints continue to be advected into the Southern Plains. At 850 hPa, a low-level jet continues to enhance this moisture advection, as well as mixing down higher winds aloft. These are primarily mixing down east of a daily dry line that moves through the Brush Country, keeping temperatures toasty to the west of this dry line, and muggy and warm to the east. With the dry line only making it as far as the coastal zones, this will be the primary area of locally stronger winds Thursday and Friday morning. The LLJ tonight seems to shift the axis of 40 kt+ winds more towards SE Texas. The LLJ on Friday morning does seem to bring near 60kt winds aloft over South Texas. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory will continue through at least early Friday morning, but will likely be extended into the weekend with the subsequent forecast package. Wind gusts observed across the coastal zones today have shown some sites reaching the 40 mph mark, but it has been too scattered to warrant a Wind Advisory. Forecast wind gusts, at this time, appear to be below criteria for any inland headlines, but will continue to monitor the CAMs tonight and discuss with the evening crew on whether one is warranted. Visibility-wise, the most likely locations for any drops below 6 miles will be in the coastal zones, but this will be short lived given the gustier winds Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above normal temperatures through Friday, with a cooldown to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend. - Increased chances for accumulating rainfall along the immediate coast and marine zones this weekend. Very minimal changes from the inherited Extended forecast package. Wet conditions return to the area by the end of the work week and early into the weekend as a mid to upper level low traverses from the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. Moisture will pool ahead of it with PWATs rising to around 1.6-1.7" Friday into Friday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will start off at around 20-30% over NW portions of the CWA Friday night, before transition E during the day on Saturday as a cold front moves across. Highest rain/storm probabilities will shift into the marine zones by Saturday evening with up to a 60% chance, while remaining at less than a 20% along the immediate coast. The aforementioned front will lead to much drier conditions on its wake with minimum RH values falling into the teens over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains over the weekend into nearly next week. Rain chances will drop to near zero again late weekend as surface high pressure surges in. Winds will remain elevated and gusty at times which will increase our fire weather concerns as the ERC class also rises into the 50-70th percentile across portions of the area by the weekend. Very warm temperatures Friday with highs in the mid 80s to near triple digits will cool into the 60s and 70s Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows will bottom in the low 40s to low 50s Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions are prevailing across the region with some MVFR conditions currently at VCT. Conditions mainly at the eastern terminals are expected to deteriorate over the next couple of hours to MVFR lasting through midmorning. VFR conditions will return there after and persist through the day. Winds will be elevated at the eastern sites with gusts around 20-30 knots through tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-11 ft waves, and 5-8 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least early Friday morning, but may be extended further into the weekend. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be fresh to strong once again. Rain chances will increase to around 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry conditions behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dry line passages across the Brush Country will drop relative humidity values as low as 10-30% through Thursday. Weak 20-ft winds will keep the fire risk at bay. Rain chances will be low to medium (20-30%) Friday out west, before transitioning eastward on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This boundary will move across the area on Saturday with minimum RH values falling into the teens across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through early next week. Winds will remain elevated due to a tight pressure gradient, and will become gusty at times. This, in combination with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th to 70th percentile class, could result in periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns mainly out west over the weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 93 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 72 89 73 87 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 72 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 99 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 73 86 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 73 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 83 73 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225329 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:12 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 702 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Windy with another Wind Advisory Thursday. - Above Normal Temperatures - High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories The active spring synoptic pattern continue to support breezy to outright windy conditions for all of Deep South Texas, especially the coastal counties. A broad and strong cold low pressure trough continues to deepening over the Rockies and Inter-Mountain west and combine with subtropical ridge building over Florida and the Gulf. The pressure gradient remains strong over the Western Gulf with models suggesting the redevelopment of the 925-850mb low level jet tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Models are suggesting the LLJ to peak around 50 knots late tonight/Thursday AM and 45-50kts Friday AM. Mechanical mixing starting around sunrise Thursday and continuing as daytime heating accelerates should allow for these winds to mix to the surface setting the stage for another wind Advisory favoring the coastal counties including the Lower RGV and SPI. Other sensible weather, strong southerly winds maintain above normal temperatures for the short term with lows in the 70s both Tonight and Thursday night. High climb well into 90 away from the immediate coast. Combine these afternoon temperatures with dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will be bumping up in the 98-104 degree range maintain at least a moderate heat risk for most of Deep South Texas. Look for a thin layer of stratus overspread the CWA tonight and quickly burning off Thursday mid-morning. Similar to this morning, increasing clouds tonight with a mostly sunny day tomorrow. Finally, the high risk of rip currents at our local beaches persist through at least Friday morning as the strong southerly winds continue to roughen up the surf. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 *Key Messages: - Windy conditions on Friday, with a Wind Advisory possible - Well-above average temperatures Friday and Saturday with the warmest day expected to be Friday -Cold front passes through Saturday with below average temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming with more average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning, with winds out of the south-southeast, as a tight pressure gradient develops between a strengthening surface low pressure near the AR/TX/OH borders and a high pressure offshore the southeast US coast. A Wind Advisory is possible on Friday as the NBM is already hinting at a 10-15% of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph across the barrier islands, coastal counties and the middle RGV. Additionally, the GFS is indicating a 35-50 knot low-level (925 mb) jet along and east of I-69 C. As the low pressure strengthens, an associated pre- frontal trough is expected to approach Deep South Texas from the north, with winds weakening and turning northerly as the trough passes through from Saturday morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-to-upper level trough and cut-off low will advance east- southeastward from the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico on Friday to West Texas by Saturday morning. As it continues eastward and mid-to- upper southwesterly flow divergence increases over the County Warning Area (CWA), along with the lift provided by the approaching front, a gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the lower Texas Gulf waters is expected to result in a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance over the western Gulf throughout the day Saturday. As the front arrives on the leading edge of a surge of high pressure later Saturday night, a low-to-medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the coastal counties and Middle RGV from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front, breezy conditions return late Saturday night and into Sunday as north- northwesterly low-level (925 mb) winds increase on the backside of the departing low pressure system. Quiet weather is expected by Monday, and into the rest of the long term, as ridging aloft gives way to west-northwesterly flow. Northerly surface winds continue into Monday and become southeasterly by Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the Deep South. Friday is anticipated to be the hottest day of the period with highs soaring into 90s across inland portions of Deep South Texas, nearing 100 degrees F over the Rio Grande Plains, with Friday night lows falling to the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s. On Saturday, the wind shift out of the north is likely to limit highs to the upper 80s-to- low 90s. As the front passes through Saturday night, temperatures will cool off substantially and into the 50s. Highs in the 70s are expected for Sunday and Monday with 80s returning Tuesday and Wednesday as winds veer back to easterly and southeasterly. Lows in the 40s/50s Sunday and Monday night will slightly warm into mid-to- upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Breezy southerly winds continue to impact the Rio Grande Valley airports with some gusts between 25 to 30 kts. Winds will be slow to weaken this evening and may not do so until after 05Z. A few low clouds were observed near the coast. Therefore, will add a TEMPO at BRO for MVFR ceilings. Low level wind shear is likely to develop with winds at 1000-2000 ft strengthening to 50kts overnight. Some lower clouds to develop over the region with a MVFR ceilings to impact all airports after 05Z and persist through Thursday 14Z. Strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts expected once again Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Tonight through Thursday night...Western Gulf pressure gradient persist through Friday morning as high pressure combines with a strengthen low pressure trough settling over the Southern Rocky Mountains. A diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds developing overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on the Laguna Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon hours with limited diminishing during the evening and overnight hours. Seas have responded today due to earlier strong winds at buoy 42020 and are in the range of 6 to 9 feet offshore. The high sea state persist through Friday morning and may even builds overnight. Small Craft Advisory are already in effect until 1 AM Friday for all coastal waters. Friday through next Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist through Monday. Fresh to strong south-southeasterly winds and moderate to rough (6-10 ft) seas are likely Friday and Friday night due to a tight pressure gradient between a strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds temporarily weaken on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough shifts winds out of the north. Seas are anticipated to subside to moderate (6-8 feet) during this time. As the front draws closer throughout the day Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase from a low-to- moderate (20-30%) to a moderate (30-40%) chance by late Saturday evening. Following the passage of the cold front late Saturday night, northerly winds will increase to strong into Sunday morning, building seas back to rough, possibly very rough, into Sunday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds maintain into Monday with much more ideal conditions returning throughout the beginning of next week with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas returning by Tuesday, gradually shifting out of the southeast by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 93 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 95 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 83 74 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225328 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 804 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Hot and dry conditions continue through the week, with some record highs anticipated. A shift in the pattern comes early next week when a cold front moves through and brings some much cooler temperatures mid week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 734 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions prevail through the period with gusty, southerly winds expected tomorrow. There is a low probability of low clouds/fog for interior areas tomorrow morning which could move into the vicinity of LAL before lifting. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 91 72 91 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 72 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 71 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 90 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 66 92 66 92 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 73 88 72 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1225327 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Quite the windy day across the region with numerous locations seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph and even a handful at 50 or higher. as of 20z BTR was the winner with a wind gust of 52 mph. As for temps it was quite warm with highs in the 80s across the region and a few topping out just in the upper 80s. As for the coastal flooding concerns outside of Waveland everywhere else has behaved and this may have a lot to do with not enough of an eastward component. Most of the area has winds between 160 and 180 and with only a minimal easterly component we aren`t pushing enough water west which would get trapped by the LA coast line. Our pattern has been getting setup for the past 18 hours and will continue to build with the ridge centered over the Bahamas and the large L/W trough still becoming established west of the continental divide and down the PAC coast. Deep southwesterly flow is in placed all the way from the Baja into the Great Lakes. This will be the driver of the weather across much of the CONUS with the greatest impacts across the Mid MS Valley, northern portions of the Lower MS Valley, and the OH/TN valleys. With that set up DO NOT look for a quick change to the weather regime across much of the area. A boundary will drift back and forth with each impulse but it will basically remain in the general vicinity of central TX northeast towards OH/IN. With that it will lead to multiple rounds of storms across the earlier mentioned areas but with the front struggling to move towards the region we will see light showers or sprinkles at best until everything finally become more progressive which looks like mid/late weekend. So prior to that what are we looking at, rather warm, breezy to windy conditions, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. It was windy as we mentioned earlier and winds will begin to slack around sunset but we will still see winds around 20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph the next 3 days. The winds will be out of the south to south- southeast. The winds will be a good bit lighter than today so we do not anticipate a windy adv for tomorrow or Friday. As for tides we are still approaching spring tide which is tomorrow with Fridays high tide almost the same height. Even though there will not be much of an easterly component we will now be 36 to 48 hours of moderate to strong onshore flow and that fetch will finally become fully established. That was the fear yesterday that we may still be a day away from seeing the big surge however even if we saw a big surge in the tide tomorrow we still may not be at warning criteria yet but it may be close. Because of that we did cancel the coastal flood watch for tonight and replaced it tomorrow with a coastal flood adv for the entire coast. The watch still remains in place for the same areas tomorrow night and now through Saturday. No real change in the temperature forecast as it will be just as warm tomorrow and maybe even 1-2 degrees warmer in some areas with a few locations possibly touching 90. The other 2 things to watch is possible advection fog but we may be getting too warm for that with lows only falling into the 70s. Still need to keep an eye on coastal MS and around the mouth of the MS river where much cooler water is flowing down the river. Other small thing but really not much of an issue is the possibility of light rain or sprinkles Friday afternoon. Not really sure what this is associated with but all models are indicating light rain across the northern third/half of the cwa. It appears it could be a weak impulse that becomes detached form the main flow. No other real sign like a LL or mid lvl jet or some enhanced area of divergence aloft. Not seeing a theta E ridge or surge in PWs so we shall see what the models are picking up on as it may become a little more evident on satellite. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Models are in good agreement with the area being impacted by thunderstorms Saturday night but at that point they begin to diverge. The GFS has a more substantial disturbance, is more progressive and everything swings through here during the overnight hours. However, the ECMWF has a stronger s/w on the backside of the L/W trough which holds the the L/W in place longer and actually causes the front to slow to a crawl across the Lower MS Valley and technically along our northwestern 3rd of the CWA. we are outlooked for severe weather by SPC and as mentioned yesterday by the time we get to Saturday evening we will have had a full 5 to 6 days of recovery and will be sufficiently primed. Shear will not be lacking either but the dynamics and kinematic fields still look to not be in line and timing looks to be the primary failure mode. If the dynamics and the kinematic field can line up more and trend a tad south then we could be seeing and overnight severe risk which is not what we would like. If things aren`t quite aligned and the best dynamics remain just to our north and behind the front we are looking at a more broad area thunderstorms. The other problem though is if things aren`t quite lined up to bring a more substantial severe threat then the ECMWF may be onto something and then that will mean that a heavy rain and possible flash flooding event will become a little more favorable. With so much moisture and instability in play a slow moving front parallel to the main flow is not what we want to see this time of the year. Think something similar to what northeast AR, southeast MO, west TN, and southern IL will see...it will just be for one day over our area at least. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR to IFR cigs continue this evening and likely remain through the forecast period. These may very briefly break late afternoon Thursday, but are expected to return by Thursday evening. Gusty winds continue, slightly less than earlier at the surface but continue to be in the 30-35kts range just off the surface. This keeps the concern for the LLWS in place through the evening and overnight hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Gale Warning for the tidal lakes continues till 00z for wind gusts over 35 kts. After that SCY takes over for all waters again through tomorrow. Nothing is really going to change for the next 3 days leading to continued hazardous marine conditions. Good catch by the overnight shift of the possibility of marine fog but the biggest concern is we may not be too warm. Best chance for Marine fog should be along MS Sound and around the mouth of the MS river where the much cooler river waters enters the Gulf. A cold front will move through the region overnight Saturday and Sunday. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region and finally offshore flow after it passes. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 30 BTR 74 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 74 86 73 84 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 74 86 74 86 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 71 81 71 80 / 0 10 0 20 PQL 71 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ058- 066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1225326 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:57 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 754 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek. && .UPDATE... Exceptionally high dewpoints for early April are streaming onshore across the eastern Carolinas. The SPC sounding climatology webpage shows upper 60s dewpoints are among the highest values on record for this time of year in Charleston and mid 60s are only a degree or two below daily maxes at Morehead City. Isolated convective showers across eastern South Carolina developing from surface-based instability should fade over over the next couple of hours, however extensive low level moisture should keep plenty of low clouds around through the night, especially inland. No changes have been made to forecast lows, 65 to 68 degrees, almost 20 degrees above normal and near the warmest observed for April 3 at our four main climate sites. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of The Bahamas. This will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break the up the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the eastern Carolinas Thurs night through the weekend. Deep southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s. Anomalously high H5 heights and 850 temps will lead to temps well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90 degree day in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass. May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows over the cool shelf waters. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sun. Moisture will increase through the column in a deep S-SW flow bringing pcp water values from an inch or less previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sun evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sun eve, do see some increasing CAPE inland, but it remains elevated. Overall, should see increasing clouds and chc of shwrs and iso thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sun into Monday. Temps should only reach into the 70s on Mon due to clouds and pcp and by Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tues only in the 60s. Overall, cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into midweek with pcp water values dropping down to a half inch by Tues morning and dropping further into Wed. Temps on Wed may only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost Wed night as temps drop below 40 most places inland. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Veering low level winds will maintain tropical humidity across the eastern Carolinas through the night and into Thursday. We have high confidence MVFR or lower ceilings will develop affecting KFLO and KLBT later this evening. Along the coast it`s tricker as the best chances for MVFR or lower conditions may occur before midnight as winds maintain a southeasterly direction. Once wind directions veer southerly overnight the probability of sustained MVFR conditions may decrease near the coast, especially at the KMYR and KCRE airports. At KILM there is a moderate probability of MVFR ceilings developing overnight, with low confidence on the timing of conditions improving to VFR again on Thursday. Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure well north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the 2-4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3-5 ft tonight before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 sec and accentuated by wind waves out of the south. Thursday night through Monday...High pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on Mon night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts Sat night into Sun as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tues morning. Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 ft range over most waters through Sat but will build heading into Sun in increasing southerly push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely beginning late Sun and should last into Mon night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225325 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 648 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley. These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect through 7 PM. As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5- 8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2, though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25 m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to organize. SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today. While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result, another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor. The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10 during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher 3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today. SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional, and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as instability wanes. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A mix of IFR to MVFR cigs are expected tonight into Thu. There might be some pockets of clouds scattering out Thu afternoon, however, low BKN/OVC ceilings should return early Thu night. S-SE winds will relax to 10-15 KTS tonight with gusts of around 20 KTS on occasion. Winds will strengthen again to 15-20 KTS with gusts of around 25-30 KTS Thu morning as the llvl jet strengthens again to 40-50 KTS. Coastal areas may have some reduced vis due to patchy fog during the overnight to morning hours. 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue (and probably increase another few feet) through at least Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more- prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or evening. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50 Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199- 200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ179-200-214- 236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225324 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 738 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front will bring a period of light rain tonight into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across northern MA tonight. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday, with a stalled front possibly bringing a few showers near the south coast Thursday night into early Friday. Unsettled conditions continue this weekend, as a frontal system impacts the region, with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by milder conditions Sunday. Saturday appears to be the wetter of the two days. Drying out Monday, as the frontal system exits the region, along with cooler than normal temperatures overspreading the area much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 740 PM update... Forecast remains on track. WAA precip overspreading the region from the west. Airmass is initially dry, so leading edge of precip shield is partially evaporating before reaching the ground. This is also resulting in evaporative cooling thru the column, yielding some ice pellets mixing in with the rain at KALB. Although, with surface temp there at 43F, no impacts. Eventually, mid level warm nose climbs to +6C, too warm to support sleet. Thus, all rain overnight, with the only exception across the high elevations of western/central MA, where temps may lower to near freezing, supporting some spotty freezing rain at elevations above 1,000 ft. This remains a low prob, thus no changes to the forecast. Farther south across CT/RI and SE MA, less rainfall expected with best WAA farther northward. Earlier discussion below. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Key Messages: * Periods of rain developing tonight * Pockets of mixed wintry precip across the interior with spotty freezing rain possible over the higher elevations. Any travel impacts will be limited. Higher clouds were already starting to arrive ahead of an approaching warm front, While the surface part of this front will probably not reach southern New England by daybreak Thursday, there will be plenty of warm air higher up. Most model soundings had peak warm nose temperatures of 4-6C. These soundings also showed a 4-6km deep layer of colder air beneath that warm nose. Overall, this should result in a period of sleet between about 8 PM to 1 AM before transitioning to all rain the rest of the night. Rainfall amounts for most anticipated to be between 0.10-0.50 inches. The other possibility is freezing rain. We had plenty of sunshine today, which should mean surface, not the standard air, temperatures well above freezing. The areas which would support this precipitation type should be isolated. With limited impact of icing this time of year, opted to not issue Winter Weather Advisories for either the freezing rain or sleet. The main areas of concern will be the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and towards the Berkshires. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Milder Thu with rain becoming more spotty in the afternoon The approaching warm front should finally move to our north during the day Thursday. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Any precipitation should be in the form of rain. Once our region gets into the warm sector, then the rainfall chances become more spotty by late morning into the afternoon. A weak cold front should then try to pass through Thursday night. One forecast concern is temperatures, and the corresponding impact on winds. Should more sunshine develop than currently forecast, we likely get deeper boundary layer mixing. With a 40-50 kt low level jet at 925 mb, that could lead to stronger winds than currently forecast, which is closer to the 90th percentile of the NationalBlend guidance but still below Wind Advisory thresholds. Forecast high temperatures in the 60s away from the immediate coasts could reach the 70s in a few spots. Drying out from north to south behind the aforementioned weak cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Updated 2:50 PM Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day Friday afternoon * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing shower chances Saturday afternoon & night, then warmer and not as wet Sunday * Trending drier, but cooler next week Friday... Wavy frontal boundary impacts the region Fri/Sat and Sun, with a roller coaster ride in temps, along with wet and dry periods of weather. The frontal boundary is south of New England Fri, but close enough for moisture and associated showers to possibly clip the south coast Fri morning. Then in the afternoon, northern stream s/wv trough dives southeast from Quebec into Maine and then the Maritimes, shifting the frontal boundary and its moisture farther offshore and south of New England. Thus, dry weather for the afternoon, along with increasing sunshine from north to south. Modest NW winds 10-15 mph will combine with a well mixed boundary layer to support highs in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degs warmer than normal for early April. Looks like a real nice afternoon, enjoy! The Weekend... The frontal boundary south of New England begins to return northward as a warm front Saturday. Thus, dry weather Sat morning will be replaced be increasing shower chances in the afternoon and night. Looks pretty wet/widespread showers Sat aftn/night, with ensemble probs of rainfall exceeding 0.10 inches at 100%. As for temps, much cooler Saturday with 1030+ mb high over the maritimes, providing cool air damming across SNE. This is evident as 925 mb temps dip to 0C to +2C across the area Sat. Therefore, 60s on Friday will be replaced by temps in the 40s Sat, feeling even cooler along the coast, with east winds 10-15 mph off the chilly ocean (SST 36-42F). Warm sector overspreads the region Sunday, however, not a clean warm sector airmass, with cold front quickly approaching from the west. Thus, not sure how much if any breaks of sunshine we will see Sunday, but warm sector airmass will provide dew pts in the 50s and highs 60-65. So definitely a warmer feel to the airmass than Sat. Bit of bust potential regarding temps Sun, +12C +16C at 925 mb Sunday afternoon. If more sunshine and mixing materializes, some locations away from the south coast could briefly pop into the 70s. Ensembles hint at this, with low probs of 70+ highs. As for precip, not a washout Sunday and definitely not as wet as Sat, but can`t rule out a few showers Sun along and ahead of frontal boundary. Given dew pts will be in the 50s, some SB instability combined with frontal scale forcing may support a low risk of thunder. Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday... Monday looks to be a transition day, with frontal boundary moving offshore and replaced by post frontal airmass. Thus, risk of early morning showers, especially over southeast MA, but trending drier in the afternoon. Seasonable temps, with highs in the 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles in good agreement on a fairly high amplitude long wave trough carving out over Quebec and New England. This will support mainly dry weather (other than an isolated PM rain/snow shower with cold cyclonic flow aloft), but cooler than normal, with highs 45-50. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z update...no change from previous TAFs. Tonight...Moderate Confidence, mainly due to timing. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but risk for -PL across the interior with pockets of -FZRA higher elevations. Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing. Thursday Night...Moderate Confidence. IFR/MVFR improving to VFR from NW to SE with passage of a cold front. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Risk for a spotty shower 03/01-05Z. Even lower risk for light PL during that time. Not enough confidence to include it in the TAF at this time, as it is more to not occur. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas briefly diminish late this afternoon and early evening. Increasing SE winds then develop overnight, building seas once more. Considered gale force gusts during Thursday, but have more confidence in strong Small Craft Advisory conditions. Staggered the timing through tonight into Thursday. Winds should diminish closer to sunset, but rough seas likely to linger across the outer coastal waters. Greater risk for reduced visibility in showers and fog across the waters east of MA than the southern waters. A warm front should move past the waters Thursday, with a cold front passing the waters late Thursday night. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ020-021. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-234. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1225323 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 739 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (This afternoon, Tonight and Thursday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Southeast winds continue to increase to 15-20G25-30 mph as warm front lifts north of the region and expect the last of the sea fog and low level stratus along the SE GA coastal counties to scour out and dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise near record warmth in the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas will combine with low level instability as dew points reach into the lower 70s and the inland moving East Coast sea breeze to develop scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly over inland SE GA to the west of the US 301 corridor, but isolated convection is possible across inland NE FL as well. Temps still cool enough aloft to kick off a few strong storms with gusty winds/small hail into the evening hours around sunset. Tonight...SE winds diminish to 5-10 mph over inland areas under mostly clear skies late this evening, with light enough winds and low level moisture for patchy fog/low stratus formation again towards morning, but likely low level flow too much to allow for widespread dense fog formation. Above normal low temps in the 65-70F inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Thursday...Breezy SE to S flow at 15-20G25-30 mph will continue to bring near record warmth and humidity to the region as Max temps push to around 90F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coast in the lower/middle 80s. Slightly drier airmass aloft should limit any daytime convection with rainfall chances generally 10% or less, although cannot rule out a brief and/or isolated shower along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland through the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Winds continue out of the south to southeast as high pressure ridging, under a ridge aloft, continues over the area bringing unseasonably high temperatures. Winds out of the southeast will allow the sea-breeze to make its way inland in the afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler for coastal areas. High daytime temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to low 90s Friday over inland areas with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s closest to the Atlantic coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60s over inland southeast Georgia with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over inland northeast Florida. Wind coming in off the Atlantic will help keep temperatures slightly warmer along the coast. Fog will be possible overnight into the morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over the weekend with lows in the 60s. Going into next week, a cold front will make its way into the area from the northwest. As the front approaches the area, chances for rain and possibly a few storms will begin to increase starting as early as Sunday evening through Monday. Showers may linger into Tuesday depending on front timing. Temperatures will cool off behind the passing front to bring temperatures down to near normal then below normal into mid-week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 739 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Breezy SE winds will last longer than usual this evening with no significant decrease until the 03-05Z time frame, and about this time expect MVFR stratus deck to develop around 1500 feet and progress northward and impact all TAF sites, even developing at IFR levels at SSI and trending downward towards sunrise with MVFR VSBYS possible along with a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGS at the NE FL TAF sites. Lower conditions will lift to MVFR/VFR levels in the 13-15Z time. Breezy SE winds develop again after 15Z with sustained winds 10-15 kts and gusts 20-25 kts. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Southeast flow around high pressure ridge through the end of the week will average out in the 15-20 knot range with seas building into the 4 to 6 feet range, so will place SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines in the forecast this package. Flow becomes south this weekend at similar speeds as the ridge axis pushes further southward and more offshore into the Western Atlantic, so SCEC headlines look likely to continue. Flow becomes Southwest ahead of the next cold frontal boundary on Monday and may reach close to SCA levels late in the day into Monday Night. Otherwise...Dense sea fog from late this morning along the SE GA coast has scoured out and dissipated early this afternoon as Southeast winds have increased and have canceled the dense fog advisories, BUT will need to monitor for possible re-development late tonight into early Thursday morning over the nearshore waters if the winds slacken off. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rips will continue in the southeast flow through Friday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over southeast Georgia but, could get down into the Suwannee Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds continue out of the northeast into Friday, allowing the Atlantic sea-breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. Expect sustained winds of 15-20 mph east of HWY-17 today and tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph as the sea-breeze makes its way in. Warming temperatures with high transport winds will create patchy high daytime dispersion over inland areas today through Friday. MinRH values are not expected to drop below 38 through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 90 66 88 / 10 0 0 0 SSI 68 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 68 85 68 83 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 67 92 66 91 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 68 92 66 91 / 20 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225322 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 720 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 715 PM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows an east/west draped warm front just north of the NC/SC border. Weak area of moisture convergence ahead of the frontal boundary is slowly pivoting eastward over eastern NC and is providing just enough lift for some spotty shower coverage, and retained low end PoPs to capture this threat before a loss of heating pares down coverage. Given sufficiently moist low-levels would not be surprised to see some drizzle, especially as the frontal boundary lifts northward, and opted to add this into the overnight period. Southerly flow will commence behind the warm front and with increased cloud cover hanging on overnight, lows will be mild in the low- to mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /2 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure centered off the southeast coast will strengthen and increase heights over ENC. Near-record highs in the mid- to upper-80s across the coastal plain and mid- to upper-70s across the Outer Banks are expected (see Climate Section below). Light isolated showers are possible across the area, but a lack of forcing should keep accumulations to a few hundreths at best. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday night through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through 00z Fri/... As of 720 PM Wed...MVFR conditions are overspreading all of eastern NC tonight as a warm front gradually lifts across the region overnight. Increasing low- level moisture is expected as winds turn southerly behind the front, and cigs will continue to lower to IFR by midnight especially across the coastal plain. Some spotty showers and drizzle remain possible overnight but confidence and coverage is too low to warrant any explicit mention in the TAFs. Low-level mixing kicks back in shortly after sunrise tomorrow, aiding in lifting cigs back to MVFR by 12-13z and eventually scattering out to VFR around midday. Gusty southwesterly winds anticipated tomorrow afternoon, reaching up to 20 kt at times especially for PGV and ISO. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...A warm front lifting north across the area will transition this afternoon`s easterly flow to southerly by tomorrow morning and southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be 15-20 kt through the period. Seas will be 4-5 ft, although there is potential for a brief period of 6 footers across the outer southern waters this evening. Given the short duration and low confidence in these conditions, a SCA has not been issued at this time. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225321 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 732 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mid level ridging over the region combined with a rather large surface area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will be the two main features influencing the weather pattern across South Florida through Thursday. With plenty of subsidence taking place, drier air will continue to filer into the region especially across the mid to upper levels. The PWAT values from this mornings 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 1.24 inches with most of the available moisture at the lower levels of the atmospheric column. As high pressure continues to build into the region, the pressure gradient will rapidly tighten over South Florida which will lead to a gusty southeasterly wind flow through the rest of today and into Thursday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible especially heading into Thursday over the eastern half of South Florida. These gusty winds will also continue to promote some lower level moisture advection during this time frame. While most areas will remain dry, there will be just enough of this lower level moisture to support the possibility of a brief fast moving shower or two mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas. With the abundance of dry air in the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures will remain on the warm side today and Thursday as they will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 To wrap up the week and moving into the weekend, expansive mid-level ridging and a sturdy surface high pressure will continue to strengthen and preside over the southeastern CONUS. With model guidance, the dry and warm weather conditions should prevail through, at least, Sunday. Afternoon highs will continue to trend just above normal with temperatures mid-to-upper 80s near the coast, and low 90s across southwestern Florida. With the moist atmosphere, the heat indices will be in the 90s and conditions will feel much warmer. Use caution when spending time outside and stay hydrated. Summer temperatures are quickly approaching! Looking into the long term forecast for next week, a mid-level low and deep trough will drop into the Great Lakes region bringing a frontal boundary and change in weather across the CONUS. As the cold front approaches, the high pressure will begin to move into the western Atlantic and allow for our next opportunity for wet weather and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly VFR expected during the next 24 hours at all terminals with periods of MVFR cigs. Southeasterly wind flow will continue to range between 10 to 15 kts t this evening with gusts of 25 kts possible. This gusty southeasterly wind flow will persist into Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will develop across the Gulf waters as the afternoon progresses and a fresh to occasionally strong breeze will develop over the Atlantic waters heading into the evening hours. This strengthening southeasterly wind flow along with building seas will create hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters beginning this evening and lasting through early Friday morning. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 6 feet tonight into Thursday while seas across the Gulf waters will range between 2 to 4 feet during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With strong onshore flow persisting, this will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 85 74 83 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 85 71 86 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 85 73 86 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 75 85 73 84 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 74 82 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 74 83 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 85 74 87 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 73 85 72 83 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 74 84 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 71 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225320 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 625 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southwest Atlantic into the southeast. This will keep the frontal boundary and associated severe weather risk well to our northwest through the near term. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will continue to increase. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low to mid 80s in many locations with some upper 80s possible in inland areas. Breezy conditions this afternoon will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday and a wind advisory may be needed again. The coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 pm this evening as water heights are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight offshore and across coastal areas. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13 Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, the severe threat is still a potential. However, everything seems to be a tick out of phase with this and so while we cannot rule out some stronger storms, the overall risk does not seem to line up just yet. For now we will continue to keep a eye on it. Things cool off behind the front as temperatures drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s for lows early next week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Southeast to southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots over the forecast area is bringing IFR to low end MVFR CIGS to most of the area. Winds will settle into the overnight hours, with fog development becoming possible after 06z/1am tonight. Stronger winds are expected Thursday, with LLWS being possible over most of the forecast area. A moist airmass in place combined with strong low level dynamics will contribute to IFR/MVFR CIGs over the forecast area again. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225319 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:30 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 716 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this afternoon, with high pressure shifting offshore of the New England coast. A deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper ridging building over the srn Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A warm front continues to approach the FA from the south and temps are generally in the 60s across central, south, and southeast portions of the FA...but are struggling to get out of the 50s in the Piedmont and eastern shore thanks to lower cloud cover and an onshore component to the flow. The strong low moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be warm so we`ll likely have a capping inversion to contend with. As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the eastern shore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing temperatures possible Tuesday night. The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front. Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing temps possible in spots. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this afternoon, but cloud bases have lowered to 4000-8000 ft at RIC. CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight as a warm front approaches and crosses the area. IFR CIGs are likely overnight at RIC, with low-end MVFR near the coast. No fog is expected as winds will remain at least 10-12 kt. Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area. ESE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of ~20 kt become SE tonight and veer to the SW on Thursday after the warm front moves N of the terminals. Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Mainly dry Thu/Thu night outside of an isolated shower/tstm INVOF SBY. A backdoor front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the area. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. Afternoon weather analysis shows 1034mb high pressure just off the coast of New England and a sub 990mb low pressure across central Iowa. Over the past couple of hours the pressure gradient from these two systems has tightened and winds speeds have begun to increase across the local waters. Winds this afternoon are between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft in the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. Winds this evening are progged to shift from E-SE this afternoon to SE by this evening with sustained winds at or just above 15 kt and gusts at or just slightly above 20 kt. Seas are not expected to rise much and stay close to 3 to 4 ft across the bay and ocean. However, latest guidance shows 5 ft seas building across the two northern ocean zones this evening and lasting through Thursday evening. With these ingredients lining up Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the rivers, bay, and two ocean zones. The rivers are expected to drop off later tonight as winds decrease, however, the bay will last through the early morning hours of Thursday. The two ocean zones do not come into affect until later this evening when the seas start to increase. These two zones last till 00z Friday. However, they could potentially need to be extended due to seas remaining elevated. By Thursday, high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where again SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A back door cold front is progged to move along the coast Friday. The S-SW winds will diminish ahead of the front, and will shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225318 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 713 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Afternoon convection is currently firing up over southeast Georgia. Development could extend as far west as I-75 in south Georgia through sunset. Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg exists in this part of Georgia. Given that aspect and the generally breezy southerly flow, storms will be capable of thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to near 50 mph until after sunset. Otherwise, the muggy air mass will support some fog development tonight. The gusty wind fields could help keep some of it stirred into a low stratus, as opposed to fog. Nonetheless, northeast Gulf water temperatures are still in the 67-71 degree range, so areas of sea fog are possible near the coast late tonight and Thursday morning. A similarly warm or hot afternoon as today is expected on Thursday, with the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor most likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Little sensible change is expected in the weather compared with tonight and Thursday. A very strong 500 mb high will be centered over the Atlantic east of the Georgia Bight. 500 mb heights in excess of 5900 meters will extend west across the service area, keeping conditions capped with temperatures running well above normal. Friday should overall be the hottest day of the week, with 90+ degree reading fairly common over inland areas. Southerly breezes will continue, with strong afternoon seabreezes at the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A highly amplified upper trough will pass across the central U.S. this weekend, as a potent southern stream trough phases with a northern stream upper trough. This will push sharp and strong spring cold front across the region on Sunday night and Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front, and SPC has already placed our region in their Day 5 outlook. Indeed, ensemble data shows weak convective instability in the pre-frontal environment, with somewhat strong bulk shear of about 40-50 knots. With the incoming upper trough, there will be upper height falls and some larger scale lift at work too. Behind the front, a significant change in the air mass will take place. We will go from our current warm/hot and muggy air mass to a cool and dry air mass. The coldest nights will be next Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with widespread low temps in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Sea fog is expected to affect locations near the coast later this evening and overnight. Some IFR conditions will be possible further inland, although low ceilings seem more likely than fog if winds stay up as expected. Conditions improve to VFR again tomorrow morning with breezy southerly flow expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The strong afternoon seabreeze that is being observed in Bay County supports issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the new St. Andrews Bay marine zone, valid until sunset. SCAs for Saint Andrews Bay will likely be needed again each afternoon through at least Saturday, thanks to the seabreeze superimposing on the already fresh background southerly winds. From CWF synopsis... Strong high pressure east of Florida and low pressure over Texas will support moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes through Saturday, with strong nearshore afternoon seabreezes. The muggy air mass will support patches of sea fog. A sharp late season cold front will cross the waters on Sunday night and Monday, followed by moderate to fresh northerly breezes on Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts. Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50 percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next wetting rain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The next round of widespread wetting rains will come with the passage of a cold front, from Sunday into Monday night. Storm- total rainfall is currently forecast to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range. In response, modest rises are likely on area rivers next week, but rivers will stay well within their banks. This much rain will only bring potential for local runoff issues in poor drainage areas. Therefore, flooding is unlikely for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 68 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 76 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735. && $$ |
| #1225317 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 - Breezy to gusty southeast winds and dry conditions prevail through late week and continue this weekend. - Very warm conditions this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide. - Rain and lightning storms return to the forecast late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 It feels like we jumped ahead a couple months out there this evening with temps still in the 80s in many spots along with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Other than a rogue shower (chances less than 20%), a dry forecast continues. East Central Florida is situated beneath a strong mid-level ridge (H5 heights near to above 588 dam) centered over the W Atlantic. ACARS soundings from MCO reveal a hostile dry layer extending from 10 KFT to the tropopause and a subsidence inversion around 15 KFT, inhibiting deep convection. A deep trough rests over the Rockies, placing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys squarely in the baroclinic zone where widespread severe weather is ongoing tonight. The ridge will essentially protect Florida from those significant impacts over the coming days. Locally, unseasonably warm to hot daytime temperatures will be commonplace. Stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and seek the shade from time to time. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Now-Tonight...Fair weather cumulus are streaming from southeast to northwest this afternoon. With a stout dry layer above 850mb and lingering moisture nearer to the surface, these clouds are only reaching 4-5 kft before being cut off by the drier air aloft. Plenty of sunshine is filtering through, pushing temperatures into the mid and upper 80s. We have several more hours of peak heating left, so the high temperature forecast remains in good shape (mid 80s coast, low 90s inland). While a shower cannot be ruled out around Lake Okeechobee, the chance is generally 10 percent or less. Breezy conditions are also present, with southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting as high as 25-30 mph. The highest winds are occurring along the Treasure Coast, where the sea breeze is attempting to develop. A diffuse breeze is anticipated to migrate inland through mid evening, bringing the potential for gusty winds 20-30 mph farther inland around sunset. Winds relax after midnight in most locations, staying breezy at the coast, as temperatures settle into the upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday-Friday...Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will work to keep conditions dry through late week. Lower PW values rotate northward from the Caribbean, limiting moisture return. Onshore flow from the southeast will remain persistent, increasing each day from late morning into the afternoon. Thus, wind gusts could approach 20- 30 mph both days, especially along the coast/barrier islands. Similar to today, afternoon highs will reach for the mid 80s to low 90s, ending up warmest across the interior and cooler (relatively speaking) at the coast. Overnight lows are forecast to remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Saturday-Tuesday...Competing synoptic features are highlighted in the medium range guidance as we head into the weekend and early next week. First, mid level ridging will remain entrenched over the southeast U.S., especially Florida. Farther north and west, a deep 500mb trough, associated with a strong cold front and surface low, is forecast to gradually move in our direction by early next week. This will chip away at high pressure over the area and eventually bring increasing rain chances to the area Monday into Tuesday. Before then, temperatures are expected to warm even further over the weekend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s everywhere on Saturday and Sunday. Breezy onshore flow will remain, providing only slight relief from the heat. Though humidity is forecast to be lower, those most sensitive to warmer temperatures should be sure to take extra breaks in the shade or air-conditioning and remain well-hydrated. Continued overnight lows in the upper 60s are forecast. By early next week, surface winds begin to veer SSW ahead of the approaching cold front. There are notable timing differences between global models regarding the timing of increased rain chances and the eventual frontal passage. Most guidance is in agreement on a Tuesday (daytime) FROPA, while the GFS suggests a slightly less organized, faster and drier FROPA late Monday into early Tuesday. Leaning on consensus, it appears our best chance for rain and storms arrives after sunrise Tuesday and continuing through the afternoon hours. Since this is still 6+ days away, we will know more about the potential for strong storms as we get closer in time. For now, convective parameters are modest at best, so the forecast reflects a chance of showers with isolated lightning storms. Temperatures remain warm Monday with highs in the 90s, dropping back into the 70s and low 80s on Tuesday in association with rain and cloud cover. QPF over the next seven days ranges from 0.2" south to around 1" across northern areas. More unknowns about the overall pattern will need to be ironed out before more specifics are provided, but any rain will be a welcome sight following a very dry start to the month. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Fresh southeast winds will continue to produce poor boating conditions tonight through at least Thursday night, mainly in the Gulf Stream. 15-20 kt winds with gusts 20-25 kt can be expected, along with seas building up to 5 ft. Small craft should exercise caution across the Gulf Stream. South-southeast winds relax for a brief time on Friday before freshening again over the weekend. Periods of poor boating conditions can be expected, especially each afternoon and evening over the Gulf Stream. More favorable conditions are forecast during the morning hours. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft offshore. Mostly dry weather is forecast until rain chances increase early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 723 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR in the 00Z TAFs as SE winds prevail throughout. Gusts subside tonight, but increase to around 25 KT on Thursday afternoon. There is a low (20-30%) chance for some BKN MVFR to brief IFR stratus late tonight. Will AMD as necessary, but for now included a period of SCT010 to account for the potential. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Saturday-Monday...Lower relative humidity each afternoon, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, will present sensitive fire weather conditions. Combined with breezy southeast winds, especially along the immediate coast, fire danger will be elevated this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm, approaching records in a couple of spots, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 70 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 72 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 70 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 71 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225313 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:30 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 418 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Quite the windy day across the region with numerous locations seeing wind gusts greater than 40 mph and even a handful at 50 or higher. as of 20z BTR was the winner with a wind gust of 52 mph. As for temps it was quite warm with highs in the 80s across the region and a few topping out just in the upper 80s. As for the coastal flooding concerns outside of Waveland everywhere else has behaved and this may have a lot to do with not enough of an eastward component. Most of the area has winds between 160 and 180 and with only a minimal easterly component we aren`t pushing enough water west which would get trapped by the LA coast line. Our pattern has been getting setup for the past 18 hours and will continue to build with the ridge centered over the Bahamas and the large L/W trough still becoming established west of the continental divide and down the PAC coast. Deep southwesterly flow is in placed all the way from the Baja into the Great Lakes. This will be the driver of the weather across much of the CONUS with the greatest impacts across the Mid MS Valley, northern portions of the Lower MS Valley, and the OH/TN valleys. With that set up DO NOT look for a quick change to the weather regime across much of the area. A boundary will drift back and forth with each impulse but it will basically remain in the general vicinity of central TX northeast towards OH/IN. With that it will lead to multiple rounds of storms across the earlier mentioned areas but with the front struggling to move towards the region we will see light showers or sprinkles at best until everything finally become more progressive which looks like mid/late weekend. So prior to that what are we looking at, rather warm, breezy to windy conditions, and minor to moderate coastal flooding. It was windy as we mentioned earlier and winds will begin to slack around sunset but we will still see winds around 20 mph with gusts of 20-35 mph the next 3 days. The winds will be out of the south to south- southeast. The winds will be a good bit lighter than today so we do not anticipate a windy adv for tomorrow or Friday. As for tides we are still approaching spring tide which is tomorrow with Fridays high tide almost the same height. Even though there will not be much of an easterly component we will now be 36 to 48 hours of moderate to strong onshore flow and that fetch will finally become fully established. That was the fear yesterday that we may still be a day away from seeing the big surge however even if we saw a big surge in the tide tomorrow we still may not be at warning criteria yet but it may be close. Because of that we did cancel the coastal flood watch for tonight and replaced it tomorrow with a coastal flood adv for the entire coast. The watch still remains in place for the same areas tomorrow night and now through Saturday. No real change in the temperature forecast as it will be just as warm tomorrow and maybe even 1-2 degrees warmer in some areas with a few locations possibly touching 90. The other 2 things to watch is possible advection fog but we may be getting too warm for that with lows only falling into the 70s. Still need to keep an eye on coastal MS and around the mouth of the MS river where much cooler water is flowing down the river. Other small thing but really not much of an issue is the possibility of light rain or sprinkles Friday afternoon. Not really sure what this is associated with but all models are indicating light rain across the northern third/half of the cwa. It appears it could be a weak impulse that becomes detached form the main flow. No other real sign like a LL or mid lvl jet or some enhanced area of divergence aloft. Not seeing a theta E ridge or surge in PWs so we shall see what the models are picking up on as it may become a little more evident on satellite. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday night) Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Models are in good agreement with the area being impacted by thunderstorms Saturday night but at that point they begin to diverge. The GFS has a more substantial disturbance, is more progressive and everything swings through here during the overnight hours. However, the ECMWF has a stronger s/w on the backside of the L/W trough which holds the the L/W in place longer and actually causes the front to slow to a crawl across the Lower MS Valley and technically along our northwestern 3rd of the CWA. we are outlooked for severe weather by SPC and as mentioned yesterday by the time we get to Saturday evening we will have had a full 5 to 6 days of recovery and will be sufficiently primed. Shear will not be lacking either but the dynamics and kinematic fields still look to not be in line and timing looks to be the primary failure mode. If the dynamics and the kinematic field can line up more and trend a tad south then we could be seeing and overnight severe risk which is not what we would like. If things aren`t quite aligned and the best dynamics remain just to our north and behind the front we are looking at a more broad area thunderstorms. The other problem though is if things aren`t quite lined up to bring a more substantial severe threat then the ECMWF may be onto something and then that will mean that a heavy rain and possible flash flooding event will become a little more favorable. With so much moisture and instability in play a slow moving front parallel to the main flow is not what we want to see this time of the year. Think something similar to what northeast AR, southeast MO, west TN, and southern IL will see...it will just be for one day over our area at least. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Biggest concern is still MVFR cigs which is impacting almost all terminals. These may break up enough to get sct clouds and allow for a short duration of VFR status but overall we will likely be dealing with MVFR through most of the forecast. Tonight MVFR and even IFR cigs will impact most if not all terminals. Other issue is winds. Very gusty winds will continue through the day but LLWS may be an issue during the evening and overnight hours as the BL starts to decouple but winds just off the deck continue to blow around 30-35 kts. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 412 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Gale Warning for the tidal lakes continues till 00z for wind gusts over 35 kts. After that SCY takes over for all waters again through tomorrow. Nothing is really going to change for the next 3 days leading to continued hazardous marine conditions. Good catch by the overnight shift of the possibility of marine fog but the biggest concern is we may not be too warm. Best chance for Marine fog should be along MS Sound and around the mouth of the MS river where the much cooler river waters enters the Gulf. A cold front will move through the region overnight Saturday and Sunday. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region and finally offshore flow after it passes. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 87 72 86 / 0 0 0 30 BTR 74 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 20 ASD 74 86 73 84 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 74 86 74 86 / 0 0 0 10 GPT 71 81 71 80 / 0 10 0 20 PQL 71 82 70 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ058- 066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1225312 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 405 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An upper level ridge will continue to build across the southwest Atlantic into the southeast. This will keep the frontal boundary and associated severe weather risk well to our northwest through the near term. While conditions will remain dry, temperatures will continue to increase. Highs on Thursday will climb into the low to mid 80s in many locations with some upper 80s possible in inland areas. Breezy conditions this afternoon will gradually decrease this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday and a wind advisory may be needed again. The coastal flood advisory will be allowed to expire at 6 pm this evening as water heights are expected to remain below advisory criteria. Patchy fog is expected to develop again tonight offshore and across coastal areas. Lows tonight will also be well above normal, in the upper 60s and low 70s. /13 Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, the severe threat is still a potential. However, everything seems to be a tick out of phase with this and so while we cannot rule out some stronger storms, the overall risk does not seem to line up just yet. For now we will continue to keep a eye on it. Things cool off behind the front as temperatures drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs and 40s for lows early next week. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR to VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through this evening. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop tonight with IFR conditions possible. VFR conditions return by late Thursday morning. /13 && .MARINE... Issued at 355 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong southerly flow continues through Saturday. A cold front will move through the marine area on Sunday with a northerly flow for early next week. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 82 69 81 69 82 67 78 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 80 Pensacola 70 77 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 Destin 68 78 69 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 Evergreen 65 86 66 86 64 86 66 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 80 Waynesboro 69 87 68 86 68 86 65 73 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 80 Camden 67 85 68 87 66 87 66 75 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 90 Crestview 65 83 65 84 64 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263- 264. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225307 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 503 PM AST Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A Wind Advisory is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, especially across windward coastal areas through Friday night due to winds between 20 and 30 mph and frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph, but up to 50 mph. Tomorrow and Friday are expected to be the windiest days, maintaining hazardous marine and coastal conditions. Small Craft Advisories and a High Rip Current Risk are also in effect at least through next Saturday. Easterlies will bring patches of moisture with embedded rain showers each day. Therefore, we cannot rule out periods of moderate to locally heavy rain at times. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday... We issued a Wind Advisory due to breezy to windy conditions. The meteorological network detected frequent wind gusts, with the maximum gusts near Culebra, St Thomas, and St John, between 40 and 45 mph. Generally, the maximum wind gust observations range between 30 and 40 mph across Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Showery weather prevailed today, mainly across the windward locations, moving westward by the mid-morning into the afternoon. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain produced ponding of water in roads and poorly drained areas, especially over the border between Mayaguez and Anasco where totals reached around 2 to 2.75 in. Maximum values reached the upper 80s, mainly across the coastal locations. Breezy to windy trade winds will prevail through at least Friday evening, peaking on Thursday, as model guidance indicates. This increasing wind trend is due to a strong above-normal surface high pressure anchored north of the islands across the Atlantic Ocean, which tightens the local pressure gradient. Thus, the Wind Advisory is in effect until Friday night due to winds between 20 and 30 mph and frequent gusts between 30 and 40 mph, but up to 50 mph. On the other hand, the easterlies will bring patches of moisture with embedded rain showers each day. Therefore, we cannot rule out periods of moderate to locally heavy rain at times. PLease refer to the latest URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE (NPWSJU) for more information about the WIND ADVISORY. A Public Information Statement (PNSSJU) was issued around noon with the highest wind gusts reports, we plan to issue another PNSSJU at around 900 PM AST. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... ./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Apr 2 2025/ At the beginning of the long-term period, conditions will remain breezy but are anticipated to follow a decreasing trend. At the same time, this will allow hazardous marine and coastal conditions to gradually improve, at least from Saturday night through at least next Monday. Model guidance continues to suggest that a surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move eastward into the Central Atlantic, promoting east to northeast winds through Sunday. These winds will then become more easterly early next week. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge will dominate to the north and west of the forecast area, while troughing develops and persists over the region through the forecast period. This will promote ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb temperatures remaining between -8C to -10C by the weekend. These conditions will support favorable conditions for deep convection and increase the chances of thunderstorm development. However, a significant drop in moisture content across different levels of the atmosphere is expected to inhibit significant rainfall and afternoon thunderstorms. The latest models still show uncertainty and disagree on the amount and timing of precipitation at this moment and we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast accordingly. Throughout the forecast period, the latest models suggest that precipitable water values will oscillate between below 1.0 and 1.5 inches, which is considered below normal to near average. As a result, activity will likely depend on the arrival of patches of moisture, leading to periods of sunshine and passing showers. Isolated to scattered showers, with a thunderstorm or two, cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours across the western portions of Puerto Rico, but at the moment, significant accumulations are not expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) VFR conditions will prevail, but SHRA/+SHRA could sometimes impact local terminals, producing brief MVFR or IFR conditions, especially across windward locations. Winds will remain mainly from the E at 20- 25 kt, with gusts between 30 and 40 knots, but could be higher. Winds from the E/ENE will be around 15 knots after 02/13z overnight but will increase again tomorrow after 03/13z. Thus, a Wind Advisory is in effect for the islands. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the Atlantic basin will continue to promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout the week. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the windiest days of the week. Seas will continue to build between 6 and 9 feet, and occasionally higher, across the regional waters. As a result, hazardous seas are anticipated through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered shower activity will continue over the next few days. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect, please refer to the latest Marine Weather Message (MWWSJU) and Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) for more information. && .BEACH FORECAST... Strong winds are deteriorating coastal conditions. Through at least Saturday afternoon, there is a high risk of rip currents for the north-facing beaches of Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. For tomorrow morning through at least Friday evening there will be a high rip current risk for the beaches of southeastern Puerto Rico, from Salinas to Yabucoa, and Vieques. A moderate risk is in place for most other beaches. Please refer to the latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) for more information. Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing quickly away from shore, which occur most often at low spots or breaks in the sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins, jetties and piers. They can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water, where it becomes difficult to return to safety. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags and signs. If you become caught in a rip current, yell for help. Remain calm, do not exhaust yourself and stay afloat while waiting for help. If you have to swim out of a rip current, swim parallel to shore and back toward the beach when possible. Do not attempt to swim directly against a rip current as you will tire quickly. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. Wind Advisory until 8 PM AST Friday for PRZ001>013. High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Friday evening for PRZ003-013. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for VIZ001-002. Wind Advisory until 8 PM AST Friday for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Friday for AMZ735-742-745. && $$ |
| #1225305 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Water Vapor imagery currently shows an broad upper level trough over the Southwest CONUS, with a shortwave trough downstream currently filling across the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley. These two features should serve as the main driver of active weather across much of the CONUS over the next several days. For today, the shortwave will be the main feature of focus, with it`s deep surface low tightening the pressure gradient and establishing a 40-60 knot LLJ over much of the Mississippi River Valley for today. Gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph continue this afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect through 7 PM. As the shortwave & surface low track northeasterly, it`ll slowly push a cold front into the vicinity. Right now, that front is moving through the Dallas/Fort Worth area, but high resolution guidance suggests it will slow and eventually stall out over portions of the Brazos Valley later this evening. Showers are currently developing north of the I-10 corridor and the environment is showing some favorable ingredients for the development of stronger storms this afternoon. SPC mesoscale analysis shows 30-60 knots of 6km bulk shear in place with ML CAPE reaching around 2500-3000 J/KG. ML CIN is around -25 to -100 J/KG presently, but HREF members have suggested that it could fall to -10 to -50 J/KG across our northern counties later this afternoon. Midlevel lapse rates range from 7.5- 8.5 degC/km with forecast soundings showing modest instability in hail growth zone. In addition, these soundings are also show drier midlevels with TEI values near 25. 3km SRH ranges from 150-250 m2s2, though HREF members suggest that this will be decreasing over the next few hours. HREF Updraft helicity paint balls greater than 25 m2/s2 keep north of our CWA though this afternoon, and given lacking upper level forcing, it may prove difficult for these storms to organize. SPC currently has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms today. All severe hazards are on the table, though damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the main hazards. The severe weather threat comes to an end later this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Thursday will see relatively similar conditions to that of today. While the pressure gradient briefly weakens overnight, the aforementioned broader trough over the Desert Southwest will spin up another surface low over the Rockies, tightening the pressure gradient again and reinvigorating the LLJ for Thursday. This means another day of gusty winds reaching 25 to 35 mph. As a result, another Wind Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for most areas along and south of the US-59 corridor. The parameter space for Thursday remains largely unchanged compared to today. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of bulk shear in place on Thursday with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3400 J/KG in the afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -10 to -50 J/KG in areas north of I-10 during the afternoon. Forecast soundings still show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. The main differences compared to today are increased TEI values of 25-30, slightly higher 3km SRH, and greater SFC CAPE. In spite of cloudy skies, highs are forecasted to be a tad warmer, with more areas reaching the mid/upper 80s during the afternoon. With the stalled frontal boundary expected to stay north of our area, there still won`t be much forcing available to aid these storms, much like today. SPC has our northernmost counties under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms on Thursday as well. Once again, all severe hazards are on the table, though damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern. The severe weather threat is still very conditional, and storms could struggle to initiate due to lackluster forcing. The severe weather threat comes to an end once again Thursday evening as instability wanes. 03 && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Western trough will dig southward across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico Friday. Lead disturbances on Friday should mostly take a trajectory along the quasi stationary frontal boundary stretching from the Big Bend to ArkLaTex area and where better chances of rain should be situated. But heading into late Friday night & Saturday, a strong shortwave is expected to kick out and track across West Texas into the Southern Plains and the front should get a push to the south. As this occurs, we should see better shra/tstm chances across the region and will need to keep an eye out for some embedded stronger cells. The front should track thru the area during the day Saturday and off the coast Saturday evening. Suspect the front will take the majority of available moisture with it, but some guidance is showing the trailing trof axis not fully making it past the area til late Monday. Regardless, we should see some much cooler wx filter into the area behind the frontal passage (40s/60s-70s) into early next week followed by a slow warming trend (~50/80) toward midweek. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland will likely see more persistent VFR conditions, whereas areas closer to the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or potentially none at all. Isolated showers will be possible near KCLL this afternoon, with low but non-zero chances for thunderstorms. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening with occasional IFR CIGS possible near the coast. CIGs slowly lift Thursday morning though MVFR CIGs should persist into the afternoon once again. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 342 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A long fetch of 20-30kt south-southeast winds has set up across the western Gulf and are producing 6-10ft seas. This will continue (and probably increase another few feet) through at least Saturday morning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will generally inhibit the dense fog potential, but mariners can also anticipate some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches around times of high tide (this includes the lowest more- prone spots like HWY 87/124 along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater Highway and Surfside). Chances for showers and storms will increase ahead of a strong late season cold front expected to push off the coast Saturday afternoon or evening. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 88 74 88 / 10 20 20 50 Houston (IAH) 75 89 75 86 / 10 10 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 73 79 / 10 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ177-178-199- 213-226-227-235. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 5 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ178-179-199- 200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ179-200-214- 236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through late Thursday night for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225304 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 308 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Windy with another Wind Advisory Thursday. - Above Normal Temperatures - High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories The active spring synoptic pattern continue to support breezy to outright windy conditions for all of Deep South Texas, especially the coastal counties. A broad and strong cold low pressure trough continues to deepening over the Rockies and Inter-Mountainwest and combine with subtropical ridge building over Florida and the Gulf. The pressure gradient remains strong over the Western Gulf with models suggesting the redevelopment of the 925-850mb low level jet tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Models are suggesting the LLJ to peak around 50 knots late tonight/Thursday AM and 45-50kts Friday AM. Mechanical mixing starting around sunrise Thursday and continuing as daytime heating accelerates should allow for these winds to mix to the surface setting the stage for another wind Advisory favoring the coastal counties including the Lower RGV and SPI. Other sensible weather, strong southerly winds maintain above normal temperatures for the short term with lows in the 70s both Tonight and Thursday night. High climb well into 90 away from the immediate coast. Combine these afternoon temperatures with dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will be bumping up in the 98-104 degree range maintain at least a moderate heat risk for most of Deep South Texas. Look for a thin layer of stratus overspread the CWA tonight and quickly burning off Thursday mid-morning. Similar to this morning, increasing clouds tonight with a mostly sunny day tomorrow. Finally, the high risk of rip currents at our local beaches persist through at least Friday morning as the strong southerly winds continue to roughen up the surf. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 *Key Messages: - Windy conditions on Friday, with a Wind Advisory possible - Well-above average temperatures Friday and Saturday with the warmest day expected to be Friday -Cold front passes through Saturday with below average temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming with more average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning, with winds out of the south-southeast, as a tight pressure gradient develops between a strengthening surface low pressure near the AR/TX/OH borders and a high pressure offshore the southeast US coast. A Wind Advisory is possible on Friday as the NBM is already hinting at a 10-15% of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph across the barrier islands, coastal counties and the middle RGV. Additionally, the GFS is indicating a 35-50 knot low-level (925 mb) jet along and east of I-69 C. As the low pressure strengthens, an associated pre- frontal trough is expected to approach Deep South Texas from the north, with winds weakening and turning northerly as the trough passes through from Saturday morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-to-upper level trough and cut-off low will advance east- southeastward from the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico on Friday to West Texas by Saturday morning. As it continues eastward and mid-to- upper southwesterly flow divergence increases over the County Warning Area (CWA), along with the lift provided by the approaching front, a gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the lower Texas Gulf waters is expected to result in a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance over the western Gulf throughout the day Saturday. As the front arrives on the leading edge of a surge of high pressure later Saturday night, a low-to-medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the coastal counties and Middle RGV from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front, breezy conditions return late Saturday night and into Sunday as north- northwesterly low-level (925 mb) winds increase on the backside of the departing low pressure system. Quiet weather is expected by Monday, and into the rest of the long term, as ridging aloft gives way to west-northwesterly flow. Northerly surface winds continue into Monday and become southeasterly by Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the Deep South. Friday is anticipated to be the hottest day of the period with highs soaring into 90s across inland portions of Deep South Texas, nearing 100 degrees F over the Rio Grande Plains, with Friday night lows falling to the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s. On Saturday, the wind shift out of the north is likely to limit highs to the upper 80s-to- low 90s. As the front passes through Saturday night, temperatures will cool off substantially and into the 50s. Highs in the 70s are expected for Sunday and Monday with 80s returning Tuesday and Wednesday as winds veer back to easterly and southeasterly. Lows in the 40s/50s Sunday and Monday night will slightly warm into mid-to- upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong southerly winds continue to impact the regional airports with the strongest winds expected at KBRO and KHRL the remainder of the day. Winds will be slow to decoupled completely and may not do so until after 05Z. At that time, low level wind shear is likely to develop with winds at 1000-2000 ft strengthening to 50kts overnight. Some lower clouds to develop over the region with a MVFR ceilings to impact all airports after 05Z and persist through Thursday 14Z. Strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts expected once again Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Tonight through Thursday night...Western Gulf pressure gradient persist through Friday morning as high pressure combines with a strengthen low pressure trough settling over the Southern Rocky Mountains. A diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds developing overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on the Laguna Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon hours with limited diminishing during the evening and overnight hours. Seas have responded today due to earlier strong winds at buoy 42020 and are in the range of 6 to 9 feet offshore. The high sea state persist through Friday morning and may even builds overnight. Small Craft Advisory are already in effect until 1 AM Friday for all coastal waters. Friday through next Wednesday...Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist through Monday. Fresh to strong south-southeasterly winds and moderate to rough (6-10 ft) seas are likely Friday and Friday night due to a tight pressure gradient between a strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds temporarily weaken on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough shifts winds out of the north. Seas are anticipated to subside to moderate (6-8 feet) during this time. As the front draws closer throughout the day Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase from a low-to- moderate (20-30%) to a moderate (30-40%) chance by late Saturday evening. Following the passage of the cold front late Saturday night, northerly winds will increase to strong into Sunday morning, building seas back to rough, possibly very rough, into Sunday afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly winds maintain into Monday with much more ideal conditions returning throughout the beginning of next week with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas returning by Tuesday, gradually shifting out of the southeast by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 93 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 95 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 83 74 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ251-254-255- 351-354-355-455. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225303 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:15 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 309 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above temperatures Thursday afternoon, reaching into the 100s along the Rio Grande - Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through Thursday night With the 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest, this places much of Texas under southwest flow aloft, keeping our mid-to-upper levels dry. At the surface and 850 hPa, higher dewpoints continue to be advected into the Southern Plains. At 850 hPa, a low-level jet continues to enhance this moisture advection, as well as mixing down higher winds aloft. These are primarily mixing down east of a daily dry line that moves through the Brush Country, keeping temperatures toasty to the west of this dry line, and muggy and warm to the east. With the dry line only making it as far as the coastal zones, this will be the primary area of locally stronger winds Thursday and Friday morning. The LLJ tonight seems to shift the axis of 40 kt+ winds more towards SE Texas. The LLJ on Friday morning does seem to bring near 60kt winds aloft over South Texas. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory will continue through at least early Friday morning, but will likely be extended into the weekend with the subsequent forecast package. Wind gusts observed across the coastal zones today have shown some sites reaching the 40 mph mark, but it has been too scattered to warrant a Wind Advisory. Forecast wind gusts, at this time, appear to be below criteria for any inland headlines, but will continue to monitor the CAMs tonight and discuss with the evening crew on whether one is warranted. Visibility-wise, the most likely locations for any drops below 6 miles will be in the coastal zones, but this will be short lived given the gustier winds Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Well-above normal temperatures through Friday, with a cooldown to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend. - Increased chances for accumulating rainfall along the immediate coast and marine zones this weekend. Very minimal changes from the inherited Extended forecast package. Wet conditions return to the area by the end of the work week and early into the weekend as a mid to upper level low traverses from the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. Moisture will pool ahead of it with PWATs rising to around 1.6-1.7" Friday into Friday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will start off at around 20-30% over NW portions of the CWA Friday night, before transition E during the day on Saturday as a cold front moves across. Highest rain/storm probabilities will shift into the marine zones by Saturday evening with up to a 60% chance, while remaining at less than a 20% along the immediate coast. The aforementioned front will lead to much drier conditions on its wake with minimum RH values falling into the teens over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains over the weekend into nearly next week. Rain chances will drop to near zero again late weekend as surface high pressure surges in. Winds will remain elevated and gusty at times which will increase our fire weather concerns as the ERC class also rises into the 50-70th percentile across portions of the area by the weekend. Very warm temperatures Friday with highs in the mid 80s to near triple digits will cool into the 60s and 70s Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows will bottom in the low 40s to low 50s Sunday and Monday nights. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Most terminals have seen improved visibilities, with the exception of KVCT and other terminals to the NE which are still hanging on to haze/shallow fog. With the low cloud deck already improving in southern Victoria County, we should see improvement there in the early afternoon. Winds will remain pretty breezy out of the S/SE east of, and including, KALI through the night, aided by the return of the low-level jet. Fog briefly returns Thursday morning, but will be short lived and generally remain above 2SM through mid-morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-11 ft waves, and 5-8 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least early Friday morning, but may be extended further into the weekend. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be fresh to strong once again. Rain chances will increase to around 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry conditions behind the front. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dry line passages across the Brush Country will drop relative humidity values as low as 10-30% through Thursday. Weak 20-ft winds will keep the fire risk at bay. Rain chances will be low to medium (20-30%) Friday out west, before transitioning eastward on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This boundary will move across the area on Saturday with minimum RH values falling into the teens across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through early next week. Winds will remain elevated due to a tight pressure gradient, and will become gusty at times. This, in combination with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th to 70th percentile class, could result in periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns mainly out west over the weekend into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 93 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 72 89 73 87 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 72 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 99 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 73 86 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 73 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 83 73 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225301 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Afternoon convection is currently firing up over southeast Georgia. Development could extend as far west as I-75 in south Georgia through sunset. Downdraft CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg exists in this part of Georgia. Given that aspect and the generally breezy southerly flow, storms will be capable of thunderstorm outflow wind gusts to near 50 mph until after sunset. Otherwise, the muggy air mass will support some fog development tonight. The gusty wind fields could help keep some of it stirred into a low stratus, as opposed to fog. Nonetheless, northeast Gulf water temperatures are still in the 67-71 degree range, so areas of sea fog are possible near the coast late tonight and Thursday morning. A similarly warm or hot afternoon as today is expected on Thursday, with the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor most likely to reach or exceed 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Little sensible change is expected in the weather compared with tonight and Thursday. A very strong 500 mb high will be centered over the Atlantic east of the Georgia Bight. 500 mb heights in excess of 5900 meters will extend west across the service area, keeping conditions capped with temperatures running well above normal. Friday should overall be the hottest day of the week, with 90+ degree reading fairly common over inland areas. Southerly breezes will continue, with strong afternoon seabreezes at the coast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A highly amplified upper trough will pass across the central U.S. this weekend, as a potent southern stream trough phases with a northern stream upper trough. This will push sharp and strong spring cold front across the region on Sunday night and Monday. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will precede the front, and SPC has already placed our region in their Day 5 outlook. Indeed, ensemble data shows weak convective instability in the pre-frontal environment, with somewhat strong bulk shear of about 40-50 knots. With the incoming upper trough, there will be upper height falls and some larger scale lift at work too. Behind the front, a significant change in the air mass will take place. We will go from our current warm/hot and muggy air mass to a cool and dry air mass. The coldest nights will be next Tuesday and Wednesday nights, with widespread low temps in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR and breezy conditions will prevail this afternoon and toward the end of the TAF period. Visibility is not expected to be as poor overnight as this morning. Mainly MVFR visibilities are forecast. However, IFR ceilings are expected at ECP and TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The strong afternoon seabreeze that is being observed in Bay County supports issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for the new St. Andrews Bay marine zone, valid until sunset. SCAs for Saint Andrews Bay will likely be needed again each afternoon through at least Saturday, thanks to the seabreeze superimposing on the already fresh background southerly winds. From CWF synopsis... Strong high pressure east of Florida and low pressure over Texas will support moderate to occasionally fresh southerly breezes through Saturday, with strong nearshore afternoon seabreezes. The muggy air mass will support patches of sea fog. A sharp late season cold front will cross the waters on Sunday night and Monday, followed by moderate to fresh northerly breezes on Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Highlights through Saturday will feature near record high afternoon temperatures over inland locations, along with high afternoon dispersion values due to strong southerly wind gusts. Onshore breezes will keep temperatures and dispersion a bit more moderate near the coast. Despite a muggy air mass, the afternoon heat will bring Min RH over inland locations into the 35-50 percent range. A fairly strong cold front is expected to pass the districts on Sunday night and Monday, complete with the next wetting rain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The next round of widespread wetting rains will come with the passage of a cold front, from Sunday into Monday night. Storm- total rainfall is currently forecast to be in the 1 to 2.5 inch range. In response, modest rises are likely on area rivers next week, but rivers will stay well within their banks. This much rain will only bring potential for local runoff issues in poor drainage areas. Therefore, flooding is unlikely for the next 7 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 68 81 68 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 66 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 91 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 69 76 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for GMZ735. && $$ |
| #1225300 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 302 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Windy with another Wind Advisory Thursday. - Above Normal Temperatures - High Risk of Rip Currents and Small Craft Advisories The active spring synoptic pattern continue to support breezy to outright windy conditions for all of Deep South Texas, especially the coastal counties. A broad and strong cold low pressure trough continues to deepening over the Rockies and Inter-Mountainwest and combine with subtropical ridge building over Florida and the Gulf. The pressure gradient remains strong over the Western Gulf with models suggesting the redevelopment of the 925-850mb low level jet tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning. Models are suggesting the LLJ to peak around 50 knots late tonight/Thursday AM and 45-50kts Friday AM. Mechanical mixing starting around sunrise Thursday and continuing as daytime heating accelerates should allow for these winds to mix to the surface setting the stage for another wind Advisory favoring the coastal counties including the Lower RGV and SPI. Other sensible weather, strong southerly winds maintain above normal temperatures for the short term with lows in the 70s both Tonight and Thursday night. High climb well into 90 away from the immediate coast. Combine these afternoon temperatures with dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will be bumping up in the 98-104 degree range maintain at least a moderate heat risk for most of Deep South Texas. Look for a thin layer of stratus overspread the CWA tonight and quickly burning off Thursday mid-morning. Similar to this morning, increasing clouds tonight with a mostly sunny day tomorrow. Finally, the high risk of rip currents at our local beaches persist through at least Friday morning as the strong southerly winds continue to roughen up the surf. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 *Key Messages: - Windy conditions on Friday, with a Wind Advisory possible - Well-above average temperatures Friday and Saturday with the warmest day expected to be Friday -Cold front passes through Saturday with below average temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming with more average temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions continue Friday into Saturday morning, with winds out of the south-southeast, as a tight pressure gradient develops between a strengthening surface low pressure near the AR/TX/OH borders and a high pressure offshore the southeast US coast. A Wind Advisory is possible on Friday as the NBM is already hinting at a 10-15% of sustained winds exceeding 30 mph across the barrier islands, coastal counties and the middle RGV. Additionally, the GFS is indicating a 35-50 knot low-level (925 mb) jet along and east of I-69 C. As the low pressure strengthens, an associated pre- frontal trough is expected to approach Deep South Texas from the north, with winds weakening and turning northerly as the trough passes through from Saturday morning into the afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid-to-upper level trough and cut-off low will advance east- southeastward from the Desert Southwest/northern Mexico on Friday to West Texas by Saturday morning. As it continues eastward and mid-to- upper southwesterly flow divergence increases over the County Warning Area (CWA), along with the lift provided by the approaching front, a gradual uptick in showers and thunderstorms over the lower Texas Gulf waters is expected to result in a low-to-medium (20-40%) chance over the western Gulf throughout the day Saturday. As the front arrives on the leading edge of a surge of high pressure later Saturday night, a low-to-medium (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is possible over the coastal counties and Middle RGV from Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind the front, breezy conditions return late Saturday night and into Sunday as north- northwesterly low-level (925 mb) winds increase on the backside of the departing low pressure system. Quiet weather is expected by Monday, and into the rest of the long term, as ridging aloft gives way to west-northwesterly flow. Northerly surface winds continue into Monday and become southeasterly by Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the Deep South. Friday is anticipated to be the hottest day of the period with highs soaring into 90s across inland portions of Deep South Texas, nearing 100 degrees F over the Rio Grande Plains, with Friday night lows falling to the upper 60s to low-to-mid 70s. On Saturday, the wind shift out of the north is likely to limit highs to the upper 80s-to- low 90s. As the front passes through Saturday night, temperatures will cool off substantially and into the 50s. Highs in the 70s are expected for Sunday and Monday with 80s returning Tuesday and Wednesday as winds veer back to easterly and southeasterly. Lows in the 40s/50s Sunday and Monday night will slightly warm into mid-to- upper 50s Tuesday and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong southerly winds continue to impact the regional airports with the strongest winds expected at KBRO and KHRL the remainder of the day. Winds will be slow to decoupled completely and may not do so until after 05Z. At that time, low level wind shear is likely to develop with winds at 1000-2000 ft strengthening to 50kts overnight. Some lower clouds to develop over the region with a MVFR ceilings to impact all airports after 05Z and persist through Thursday 14Z. Strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts expected once again Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Tonight through Thursday night...Western Gulf pressure gradient persist through Friday morning as high pressure combines with a strengthen low pressure trough settling over the Southern Rocky Mountains. A diurnal wind pattern with strong offshore winds developing overnight and lowering during the day. While winds on the Laguna Madre are likely to be stronger during the afternoon hours with limited diminishing during the evening and overnight hours. Seas have responded today due to earlier strong winds at buoy 42020 and are in the range of 6 to 9 feet offshore. The high sea state persist through Friday morning and may even builds overnight. Small Craft Advisory are already in effect until 1 AM Friday for all coastal waters. Friday through next Wednesday...Fresh to strong south-southeasterly winds and moderate to rough seas are likely Friday and Friday night due to a tight pressure gradient between a strengthening low pressure system over the Central Plains and high pressure to the east. Winds temporarily weaken on Saturday as a pre-frontal trough shifts winds out of the north. Seas are anticipated to subside to moderate during this time. As the front draws closer throughout the day Saturday, chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase from a low-to-moderate (20-30%) to a moderate (30- 40%) chance by late Saturday evening. Following the passage of the cold front late Saturday night, northerly winds will increase to strong into Sunday morning, building seas back to rough, possibly very rough into Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are likely to persist through Monday. Fresh to strong northerly winds maintain into Monday with much more ideal conditions returning throughout the beginning of next week with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas returning by Tuesday, gradually shifting out of the southeast by Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 93 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 95 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 100 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 83 74 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 86 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ251-254-255- 351-354-355-455. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225299 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 342 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of The Bahamas. This will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break the up the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the eastern Carolinas Thurs night through the weekend. Deep southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s. Anomalously high H5 heights and 850 temps will lead to temps well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90 degree day in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass. May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows over the cool shelf waters. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sun. Moisture will increase through the column in a deep S-SW flow bringing pcp water values from an inch or less previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sun evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sun eve, do see some increasing CAPE inland, but it remains elevated. Overall, should see increasing clouds and chc of shwrs and iso thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sun into Monday. Temps should only reach into the 70s on Mon due to clouds and pcp and by Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tues only in the 60s. Overall, cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into midweek with pcp water values dropping down to a half inch by Tues morning and dropping further into Wed. Temps on Wed may only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost Wed night as temps drop below 40 most places inland. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Easterly winds will gradually veer to southeasterly through this evening as a stalled front gradually lifts back northward, with south winds expected at all terminals before the end of the night as the front lifts north of the area. Moisture overrunning this front is expected to produce widespread MVFR cig restrictions overnight, with high confidence in continuous restrictions (and moderate potential for IFR to LIFR cigs) at far inland terminals. At the coastal terminals, there is moderate confidence that MVFR cig development late today will see a temporary return back to VFR for a few hours overnight before returning to MVFR, with this most likely at the SC coastal terminals, although ILM could also experience this break. Otherwise, expect MVFR cigs to persist through tonight and into tomorrow morning, with insolation helping to break up the cigs by around noon. Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure well north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the 2-4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3-5 ft tonight before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 sec and accentuated by wind waves out of the south. Thursday night through Monday...High pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on Mon night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts Sat night into Sun as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tues morning. Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 ft range over most waters through Sat but will build heading into Sun in increasing southerly push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely beginning late Sun and should last into Mon night. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225298 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 337 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Strong Atlantic high pressure will prevail into this weekend, then a cold front will move through Monday. High pressure will then rebuild. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Afternoon composite analysis reveals a nearly stalled boundary arcing through E/SE Georgia into the Atlantic and weakening inverted surface trough extending up through the outer coastal waters. SPC mesoanalysis shows 1500-2500 J/Kg MLCAPE across the region, highest across inland SE Georgia. Isolated showers have popped across the local forecast area this afternoon, particularly across southeast South Carolina. Further south, some semblance of a sea breeze boundary is pressing inland through far southeast Georgia (JAX CWA) where there is a small cluster of showers/storms moving northward. Rest of this afternoon: Isolated to scattered showers and some thunderstorms remain possible heading into the evening, especially across the Charleston tri-county area as well as inland southeast Georgia well west of the I-95 corridor. Highest pops were maintained for those areas. Severe weather potential still appears on the lower side. But given decent DCAPE values across southeast Georgia (in excess of 1000 J/Kg) and at least some modest stronger winds aloft, gusty wind potential cannot be ruled out. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts expanding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, fog potential appears much lower tonight compared to last night. Low temperatures in the middle to upper 60s anticipated, a good 15 degrees above climo values. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Deep layered ridging over the Eastern United States and western Atlantic will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures. A prevailing southerly flow will help enhance the afternoon sea breeze each day, so locations closer to the coast will remain considerably cooler than places farther inland. Highs inland will reach the mid to upper 80s each day, with a few readings in the lower 90s possible closer to the Central Savannah River Area (CSRA). && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ridging will continue through Sunday, then a longwave trough will sweep east Monday, pushing a strong cold front through the area. Fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Monday, then temps cool down considerably for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR cigs linger across the region, although cigs should further lift into the low VFR range in the next hour or two. A few showers are also popping across the area and could impact the terminals through the afternoon...particularly across the KCHS and KJZI terminal sites...along with a low end chance for TSRA. Also, gustier south-southeasterly winds continue through the afternoon with gusts running 17 to 22 knots. Shower activity and gustiness ends this evening. Another period of low (MVFR-IFR) ceilings is possible again late this evening and overnight followed by slowly improving conditions Thursday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Nighttime ceiling restrictions possible Thursday night. && .MARINE... Tonight: High pressure across Bermuda will continue to dominate with increasing south to southeasterly flow across the coastal waters. Winds of 10 to 15 knots will be common with some higher gusts, while seas build into the 3 to 5 foot range. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches into early evening. Fairly quiet marine conditions expected Thursday through Saturday. Southerly flow will strengthen Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough approaches from the west. 6 ft seas could encroach on the outer portions of the offshore GA and nearshore SC waters. Sunday and Sunday night we could see 25 kt wind gusts in the Charleston nearshore waters and Charleston Harbor, so Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225297 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 338 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 3 PM Wednesday...Latest surface analysis shows an east/west draped warm front just north of the NC/SC border. This front is slowly moving north and supporting light showers south of Highway 70. As this boundary continues to lift north through the evening, light showers will blossom across the CWA. Southerly flow will commence behind the warm front and with increased cloud cover hanging on overnight, lows will be mild in the low- to mid-60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Wed...High pressure centered off the southeast coast will strengthen and increase heights over ENC. Near-record highs in the mid- to upper-80s across the coastal plain and mid- to upper-70s across the Outer Banks are expected (see Climate Section below). Light isolated showers are possible across the area, but a lack of forcing should keep accumulations to a few hundreths at best. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday night through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 130 PM Wed...VFR conditions lingering at all terminals (except OAJ) early this afternoon despite developing stratocumulus deck; however, this cloud layer continues to lower and thicken, with MVFR conditions already noted at OAJ. Low-level moistening amidst easterly flow is expected to support further lowering of ceilings this afternoon and evening, with all terminals expected to drop to MVFR over the next few hours. Easterly winds gradually become more southerly overnight, and guidance continues to indicate IFR ceilings for all terminals tonight. Thus have introduced prevailing IFR groups late tonight into tomorrow morning. A few isolated showers will be possible tonight as well as a warm front advances through the region. However, confidence is still low enough in coverage and occurrence of showers to preclude a mention in the TAFs. Low clouds will then begin to mix out tomorrow after sunrise, with ceilings expected to lift to VFR by early afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday night/... As of 3:30 PM Wednesday...A warm front lifting north across the area will transition this afternoon`s easterly flow to southerly by tomorrow morning and southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will generally be 15-20 kt through the period. Seas will be 4-5 ft, although there is potential for a brief period of 6 footers across the outer southern waters this evening. Given the short duration and low confidence in these conditions, a SCA has not been issued at this time. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225296 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:27 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 310 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this afternoon, with high pressure shifting offshore of the New England coast. A deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper ridging building over the srn Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A warm front continues to approach the FA from the south and temps are generally in the 60s across central, south, and southeast portions of the FA...but are struggling to get out of the 50s in the Piedmont and eastern shore thanks to lower cloud cover and an onshore component to the flow. The strong low moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be warm so we`ll likely have a capping inversion to contend with. As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the eastern shore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing temperatures possible Tuesday night. The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front. Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing temps possible in spots. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this afternoon, but cloud bases have lowered to 4000-8000 ft at RIC. CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight as a warm front approaches and crosses the area. IFR CIGs are likely overnight at RIC, with low-end MVFR near the coast. No fog is expected as winds will remain at least 10-12 kt. Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area. ESE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of ~20 kt become SE tonight and veer to the SW on Thursday after the warm front moves N of the terminals. Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Mainly dry Thu/Thu night outside of an isolated shower/tstm INVOF SBY. A backdoor front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the area. && .MARINE... As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. Afternoon weather analysis shows a 1034mb High pressure just off the coast of coast of New England and a sub 990 Low pressure across central Iowa. Over the past couple of hours the pressure gradient from these two systems have tightened and winds speeds have begun to increase across the local waters. Winds this afternoon are between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt. Seas are between 2 to 3 ft in the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the ocean. Winds this evening are progged to shift form E-SE this afternoon to SE by this evening with sustained winds at or just above 15 kt and gusts at or just slightly above 20 kt. Seas are not expected to rise much and stay close to 3 to 4 ft across the bay and ocean. However, latest guidance has shown 5 ft seas building across the two northern ocean zones this evening and lasting through Thursday evening. With these ingredients lining up Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Rivers, bay, and two ocean zones. The rivers are expected to drop off later tonight as winds decrease, however, the bay will last through the early morning hours of Thursday. The two ocean zones do not come into affect until later this evening when the seas start to increase. These two zones last till 0z Friday. However, they could potentially need to be extended due to seas remaining elevated. By Thursday, High pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where again SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A back door cold front is progged to move along the coast Friday. The S- SW winds will diminish ahead of the front, and will shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225293 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 249 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching warm front will bring a period of light rain tonight into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across northern MA tonight. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday, with a stalled front possibly bringing a few showers near the south coast Thursday night into early Friday. Unsettled conditions continue this weekend, as a frontal system impacts the region, with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by milder conditions Sunday. Saturday appears to be the wetter of the two days. Drying out Monday, as the frontal system exits the region, along with cooler than normal temperatures overspreading the area much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Messages: * Periods of rain developing tonight * Pockets of mixed wintry precip across the interior with spotty freezing rain possible over the higher elevations. Any travel impacts will be limited. Higher clouds were already starting to arrive ahead of an approaching warm front, While the surface part of this front will probably not reach southern New England by daybreak Thursday, there will be plenty of warm air higher up. Most model soundings had peak warm nose temperatures of 4-6C. These soundings also showed a 4-6km deep layer of colder air beneath that warm nose. Overall, this should result in a period of sleet between about 8 PM to 1 AM before transitioning to all rain the rest of the night. Rainfall amounts for most anticipated to be between 0.10-0.50 inches. The other possibility is freezing rain. We had plenty of sunshine today, which should mean surface, not the standard air, temperatures well above freezing. The areas which would support this precipitation type should be isolated. With limited impact of icing this time of year, opted to not issue Winter Weather Advisories for either the freezing rain or sleet. The main areas of concern will be the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills and towards the Berkshires. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key Messages: * Milder Thu with rain becoming more spotty in the afternoon The approaching warm front should finally move to our north during the day Thursday. This will lead to well above normal temperatures. Any precipitation should be in the form of rain. Once our region gets into the warm sector, then the rainfall chances become more spotty by late morning into the afternoon. A weak cold front should then try to pass through Thursday night. One forecast concern is temperatures, and the corresponding impact on winds. Should more sunshine develop than currently forecast, we likely get deeper boundary layer mixing. With a 40-50 kt low level jet at 925 mb, that could lead to stronger winds than currently forecast, which is closer to the 90th percentile of the NationalBlend guidance but still below Wind Advisory thresholds. Forecast high temperatures in the 60s away from the immediate coasts could reach the 70s in a few spots. Drying out from north to south behind the aforementioned weak cold front. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Updated 2:50 PM Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day Friday afternoon * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing shower chances Saturday afternoon & night, then warmer and not as wet Sunday * Trending drier, but cooler next week Friday... Wavy frontal boundary impacts the region Fri/Sat and Sun, with a roller coaster ride in temps, along with wet and dry periods of weather. The frontal boundary is south of New England Fri, but close enough for moisture and associated showers to possibly clip the south coast Fri morning. Then in the afternoon, northern stream s/wv trough dives southeast from Quebec into Maine and then the Maritimes, shifting the frontal boundary and its moisture farther offshore and south of New England. Thus, dry weather for the afternoon, along with increasing sunshine from north to south. Modest NW winds 10-15 mph will combine with a well mixed boundary layer to support highs in the low to mid 60s, about 10 degs warmer than normal for early April. Looks like a real nice afternoon, enjoy! The Weekend... The frontal boundary south of New England begins to return northward as a warm front Saturday. Thus, dry weather Sat morning will be replaced be increasing shower chances in the afternoon and night. Looks pretty wet/widespread showers Sat aftn/night, with ensemble probs of rainfall exceeding 0.10 inches at 100%. As for temps, much cooler Saturday with 1030+ mb high over the maritimes, providing cool air damming across SNE. This is evident as 925 mb temps dip to 0C to +2C across the area Sat. Therefore, 60s on Friday will be replaced by temps in the 40s Sat, feeling even cooler along the coast, with east winds 10-15 mph off the chilly ocean (SST 36-42F). Warm sector overspreads the region Sunday, however, not a clean warm sector airmass, with cold front quickly approaching from the west. Thus, not sure how much if any breaks of sunshine we will see Sunday, but warm sector airmass will provide dew pts in the 50s and highs 60-65. So definitely a warmer feel to the airmass than Sat. Bit of bust potential regarding temps Sun, +12C +16C at 925 mb Sunday afternoon. If more sunshine and mixing materializes, some locations away from the south coast could briefly pop into the 70s. Ensembles hint at this, with low probs of 70+ highs. As for precip, not a washout Sunday and definitely not as wet as Sat, but can`t rule out a few showers Sun along and ahead of frontal boundary. Given dew pts will be in the 50s, some SB instability combined with frontal scale forcing may support a low risk of thunder. Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday... Monday looks to be a transition day, with frontal boundary moving offshore and replaced by post frontal airmass. Thus, risk of early morning showers, especially over southeast MA, but trending drier in the afternoon. Seasonable temps, with highs in the 50s. Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles in good agreement on a fairly high amplitude long wave trough carving out over Quebec and New England. This will support mainly dry weather (other than an isolated PM rain/snow shower with cold cyclonic flow aloft), but cooler than normal, with highs 45-50. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight...Moderate Confidence, mainly due to timing. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but risk for -PL across the interior with pockets of -FZRA higher elevations. Thursday...Moderate Confidence. Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing. Thursday Night...Moderate Confidence. IFR/MVFR improving to VFR from NW to SE with passage of a cold front. BOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Risk for a spotty shower 03/01-05Z. Even lower risk for light PL during that time. Not enough confidence to include it in the TAF at this time, as it is more to not occur. BDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in timing. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Winds and seas briefly diminish late this afternoon and early evening. Increasing SE winds then develop overnight, building seas once more. Considered gale force gusts during Thursday, but have more confidence in strong Small Craft Advisory conditions. Staggered the timing through tonight into Thursday. Winds should diminish closer to sunset, but rough seas likely to linger across the outer coastal waters. Greater risk for reduced visibility in showers and fog across the waters east of MA than the southern waters. A warm front should move past the waters Thursday, with a cold front passing the waters late Thursday night. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for MAZ020-021. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ230. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ232-234. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ233. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ235-237-255. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 10 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1225292 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 246 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A mostly uneventful weather day for the Florida Keys continues. Shallow showers were detected on radar across the Straits and Gulf waters with a possible trace observed over the Lower Keys. Temperatures across the islands increased into the mid 80s, and dew points are still in the mid 70s. Humid, muggy conditions are here to stay for the next few days. The concern will be the Small Craft Advisories issued for the Keys Waters. Marine platforms along the reef measured winds near 20 knots and island airports are measuring 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts. The beginning of this upcoming wind surge arrived, and it will remain for the rest of the week. What exactly is happening across the eastern CONUS, then? A broad mid altitude ridge will keep a subsident region of the subtropical jet over the southeastern states. In addition, a sequential pair of 1032 to 1036 mb highs will build into the North Atlantic and sustain prolonged breezy to windy conditions across the CWA. Further, breezes will be southeasterly and keep the environment warmer and muggier than normal for this time of year. Depending on how the high develops, winds may oscillate more between fresh and strong in the nighttime. Cloud development may be enhanced along wind convergence boundaries, which could cause additional cloud cover and a stray shower. Finally, the high keeping winds southeasterly means once it shifts eastward and winds slacken, waves will subside rapidly, so timing is important. The current forecast estimates Sunday to be the day we get out of breezy or windy conditions, but that may move a bit earlier or later. Zooming out from the Keys, a shortwave trough over the central CONUS will phase with a longwave trough descending from Ontario into the Great Lakes on Sunday to Monday. This feature will force the prolonged high pressure over the North Atlantic east. Breezes will start to slacken, so boaters around the Keys will be given a brief reprieve. Monday to Tuesday, model ensembles and statistical guidance indicate a cold frontal passage sometime between Monday and Wednesday, hence an increase in PoPs to 20% for those days. The strength, timing, and exact pattern of how the front develops has yet to be determined. The moisture signal persists in the models, but wind speeds are not certain and the model spread for low temperatures ranges from near 70 to 76. Keep checking back for updated information, the cold frontal pattern will come better into focus. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones. From synopsis, high pressure in the North Atlantic will build and freshen east to southeasterly breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong breezes are expected through Sunday morning, when a low pressure system develops over the eastern United States. Shower chances will remain near nil until next week, and a frontal passage may occur sometime around Monday to Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 247 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While a passing shower cannot be ruled out, the shallow and sporadic nature of developing convection does not warrant a mention in either TAF at the moment. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at 15 to 20 with frequent to occasional gusts near 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1987, after a high of 65F and low of 56F the previous day (the 1st), the low temperature of 48F at Key West International Airport on the 2nd shattered the cold record for the date. It is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of April (with the next-lowest being 54F in 1891), and the next-latest sub- 50F reading ever is 49F on March 4, 1980. 47F on March 3, 1986. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 85 76 84 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 77 83 77 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1225291 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:48 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Upper-level ridging is overhead with the surface high off the east coast. Given the current location, the surface pressure gradient is quite strong. In response, winds are gusty this afternoon, and will be for the next few days as this pattern remains quite locked in. Warm and dry is largely going to be theme into early next week. However, there could be a couple isolated showers late this afternoon/evening; and while too low for inclusion over the next few days, it can`t be completely ruled out in the days to come. These will be few and far between, so don`t expect to see much at any one location. Towards the middle of next week, the pattern will finally break. As a trough digs into the southeast, another attendant cold front is forecast to move through the region. There will likely be showers and thunderstorms that accompany this front, and some of these could be strong. Additionally, there will be a period of increasing winds out of the south and then southwest early next week. Once the front pushes through, what is likely to be the final meaningful cool down for the year is expected. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 80 degrees, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s for the middle of the week. So after some very hot days this week, the change will be a nice reprieve, before the warmer and more humid weather settles in to carry us through the summer months. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Conditions are largely expected to be VFR over the next 24 hours. However, there is a low probability of a couple isolated showers near the coast late this afternoon/evening. Really, the only airport that has a meaningful chance of seeing any impacts is TPA. Additionally, there is a low probability for some additional low clouds/fog to impact the interior. This could drift into the vicinity of KLAL for a brief window tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With high pressure off to the east of Florida, a breezy ESE flow continues across coastal waters, but will try to turn onshore and weaken some late in the day. This will lead to periods of choppier seas, but conditions should remain below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 229 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Breezy winds will continue each day, particularly in the afternoon. This may lead to periods of high dispersions. Otherwise, RH values remain above critical thresholds, despite overall warm and dry conditions persisting. However, red flag concerns are low across the region this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 91 72 91 / 20 0 0 0 FMY 72 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 71 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 71 90 70 90 / 10 0 0 0 BKV 66 92 66 92 / 20 0 0 0 SPG 73 88 72 87 / 10 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1225290 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:42 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 230 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 - Breezy to gusty southeast winds and dry conditions prevail through late week and continue this weekend - Very warm conditions this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s areawide - Rain and lightning storms return to the forecast late Monday into Tuesday as a cold front approaches the area && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Now-Tonight...Fair weather cumulus are streaming from southeast to northwest this afternoon. With a stout dry layer above 850mb and lingering moisture nearer to the surface, these clouds are only reaching 4-5 kft before being cut off by the drier air aloft. Plenty of sunshine is filtering through, pushing temperatures into the mid and upper 80s. We have several more hours of peak heating left, so the high temperature forecast remains in good shape (mid 80s coast, low 90s inland). While a shower cannot be ruled out around Lake Okeechobee, the chance is generally 10 percent or less. Breezy conditions are also present, with southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting as high as 25-30 mph. The highest winds are occurring along the Treasure Coast, where the sea breeze is attempting to develop. A diffuse breeze is anticipated to migrate inland through mid evening, bringing the potential for gusty winds 20-30 mph farther inland around sunset. Winds relax after midnight in most locations, staying breezy at the coast, as temperatures settle into the upper 60s and low 70s. Thursday-Friday...Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will work to keep conditions dry through late week. Lower PW values rotate northward from the Caribbean, limiting moisture return. Onshore flow from the southeast will remain persistent, increasing each day from late morning into the afternoon. Thus, wind gusts could approach 20- 30 mph both days, especially along the coast/barrier islands. Similar to today, afternoon highs will reach for the mid 80s to low 90s, ending up warmest across the interior and cooler (relatively speaking) at the coast. Overnight lows are forecast to remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. Saturday-Tuesday...Competing synoptic features are highlighted in the medium range guidance as we head into the weekend and early next week. First, mid level ridging will remain entrenched over the southeast U.S., especially Florida. Farther north and west, a deep 500mb trough, associated with a strong cold front and surface low, is forecast to gradually move in our direction by early next week. This will chip away at high pressure over the area and eventually bring increasing rain chances to the area Monday into Tuesday. Before then, temperatures are expected to warm even further over the weekend, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s everywhere on Saturday and Sunday. Breezy onshore flow will remain, providing only slight relief from the heat. Though humidity is forecast to be lower, those most sensitive to warmer temperatures should be sure to take extra breaks in the shade or air-conditioning and remain well-hydrated. Continued overnight lows in the upper 60s are forecast. By early next week, surface winds begin to veer SSW ahead of the approaching cold front. There are notable timing differences between global models regarding the timing of increased rain chances and the eventual frontal passage. Most guidance is in agreement on a Tuesday (daytime) FROPA, while the GFS suggests a slightly less organized, faster and drier FROPA late Monday into early Tuesday. Leaning on consensus, it appears our best chance for rain and storms arrives after sunrise Tuesday and continuing through the afternoon hours. Since this is still 6+ days away, we will know more about the potential for strong storms as we get closer in time. For now, convective parameters are modest at best, so the forecast reflects a chance of showers with isolated lightning storms. Temperatures remain warm Monday with highs in the 90s, dropping back into the 70s and low 80s on Tuesday in association with rain and cloud cover. QPF over the next seven days ranges from 0.2" south to around 1" across northern areas. More unknowns about the overall pattern will need to be ironed out before more specifics are provided, but any rain will be a welcome sight following a very dry start to the month. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Fresh southeast winds will continue to produce poor boating conditions tonight through at least Thursday night, mainly in the Gulf Stream. 15-20 kt winds with gusts 20-25 kt can be expected, along with seas building up to 5 ft. Small craft should exercise caution across the Gulf Stream. South-southeast winds relax for a brief time on Friday before freshening again over the weekend. Periods of poor boating conditions can be expected, especially each afternoon and evening over the Gulf Stream. More favorable conditions are forecast during the morning hours. Seas generally 2-4 ft, up to 5 ft offshore. Mostly dry weather is forecast until rain chances increase early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with rain not anticipated at the terminals. Breezy and gusty southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots are forecast to persist through the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening hours, becoming lighter around 10 knots overnight. Stratus development will be possible overnight, but was not confident enough to include a TEMPO for reduced CIGs. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Winds pick up around 15 knots once again tomorrow morning out of the southeast, with gusts to 25 knots possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Saturday-Monday...Lower relative humidity each afternoon, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, will present sensitive fire weather conditions. Combined with breezy southeast winds, especially along the immediate coast, fire danger will be elevated this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are forecast to remain very warm, approaching records in a couple of spots, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 70 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 72 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 70 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 71 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225289 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mid level ridging over the region combined with a rather large surface area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will be the two main features influencing the weather pattern across South Florida through Thursday. With plenty of subsidence taking place, drier air will continue to filer into the region especially across the mid to upper levels. The PWAT values from this mornings 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 1.24 inches with most of the available moisture at the lower levels of the atmospheric column. As high pressure continues to build into the region, the pressure gradient will rapidly tighten over South Florida which will lead to a gusty southeasterly wind flow through the rest of today and into Thursday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible especially heading into Thursday over the eastern half of South Florida. These gusty winds will also continue to promote some lower level moisture advection during this time frame. While most areas will remain dry, there will be just enough of this lower level moisture to support the possibility of a brief fast moving shower or two mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas. With the abundance of dry air in the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures will remain on the warm side today and Thursday as they will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 220 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 To wrap up the week and moving into the weekend, expansive mid-level ridging and a sturdy surface high pressure will continue to strengthen and preside over the southeastern CONUS. With model guidance, the dry and warm weather conditions should prevail through, at least, Sunday. Afternoon highs will continue to trend just above normal with temperatures mid-to-upper 80s near the coast, and low 90s across southwestern Florida. With the moist atmosphere, the heat indices will be in the 90s and conditions will feel much warmer. Use caution when spending time outside and stay hydrated. Summer temperatures are quickly approaching! Looking into the long term forecast for next week, a mid-level low and deep trough will drop into the Great Lakes region bringing a frontal boundary and change in weather across the CONUS. As the cold front approaches, the high pressure will begin to move into the western Atlantic and allow for our next opportunity for wet weather and cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeasterly wind flow will continue to range between 15 and 20 kts this afternoon into this evening with gusts of 25 to 28 kts possible across the east coast terminals. This gusty southeasterly wind flow will persist into Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will develop across the Gulf waters as the afternoon progresses and a fresh to occasionally strong breeze will develop over the Atlantic waters heading into the evening hours. This strengthening southeasterly wind flow along with building seas will create hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters beginning this evening and lasting through early Friday morning. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 6 feet tonight into Thursday while seas across the Gulf waters will range between 2 to 4 feet during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With strong onshore flow persisting, this will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 85 74 83 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 85 71 86 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 85 73 86 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 75 85 73 84 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 74 82 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 74 83 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 85 74 87 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 73 85 72 83 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 74 84 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 71 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225288 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Wind advisory updated as strongest winds have shifted east impacting mainly the coastal counties. Latest VAD has lowered and now does not show any winds over 50 knots below 6000 feet with still 45-48 at indicated at 2-3K ft. Have extended the Advisory until 4 PM and includes Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy inland and coastal counties as well as Cameron Island (South Padre Island). && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected today through Thursday across Deep South Texas. A 500mb trough continues to deepen into the Desert SW with a series of surface low pressure systems swinging through the Southern Plains, this will maintain dry conditions locally with an enhanced pressure gradient, setting up strong LLJs along the lower Texas coast, with 45 to 55 kts at 850mb. DESI probabilities nudge above 70 percent for wind gusts over 40 mph through this morning across the lower valley and lower Texas coast, less than 30 percent for wind gusts over 45 mph, with sustained winds likely falling below 30 mph. Still, a brief Wind Advisory may be needed from 9 or 10 AM through 1 or 2 PM across Cameron County if stronger winds do mix down to the surface after sunrise. For winds, ran with a blend of NBM75 and NBM90 for inland areas today through Thursday, hand editing across Cameron County where necessary. Winds should remain breezy overnight and increase once again into Thursday afternoon, with gusts to 35 mph. Highs range from the low to mid 90s east into the low 100s west today, only dropping a couple of degrees on Thursday, mainly east. If winds turn more SSW this morning into this afternoon, temperatures will rise quickly across the lower valley due to downsloping and mid to upper 90s may be achievable. There is a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast until further notice. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected to take place Thursday night through Friday; widespread moderate Heat Risk is expected on Friday with heat indices between 100-105F degrees. * A cold front passes through on Saturday; isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along with gusty winds out of the northeast. * Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool temperatures are expected beginning Saturday night into Sunday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, before improving early next week. A changeable weather pattern is expected to take shape during the extended. A sfc cold front will be the main driver in this changeable pattern. Ahead of the cold frontal passage on Saturday, unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will take place across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool conditions will occur. We start off the long-term period Thursday night where a mid-upper trough will be situated over the Southwestern U.S. As this feature gradually shifts eastward, it will drive a sfc cold front southeastward into Texas and towards Deep South Texas over the weekend and into next week. Before the cold front arrives however,southwesterly winds aloft and southeasterly winds at the sfc will result in persistent moist and warm air advection (WAA). Furthermore, an enhanced sfc pressure gradient and strong 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) winds sampled between 45-50 kts will translate to moderately strong south-southeast winds that may warrant the issuance of a Wind Advisory Thursday night into Friday. Given the situation, unseasonably warm temperatures with elevated humidity values will continue Friday into Saturday. Daytime high temperatures on Friday are progged to climb into the 90s across much of Deep South Texas (80s near/along the coast and triple digit heat far northwest across northwestern Zapata County). With dewpoint temps in the 70s, a moderate Heat Risk will be present for much of the region on Friday with heat indices ranging between 100-105F degrees. During the day on Saturday, the aforementioned mid-upper low over the Southwestern U.S. will continue to translate eastward and will help to drive a cold front south- southeastward through Deep South Texas. Just before the cold front arrives, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s (slightly cooler than Friday). While the cold front is expected to be mainly dry due to limited instability and moisture, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. Behind the cold fropa, cooler and drier than normal conditions are expected. Sunday and Monday will be amongst the coolest days of the week with high temperatures in the 70s across the region. Overnight lows are also expected to be near normal levels, but maybe slightly cooler than normal. Overnight lows are expected to climb into the Saturday night and Sunday night are expected to be in the 50s across much of the area. Monday night is expected to be the coolest night of the period with overnight lows in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and the low to mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures look to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s returning. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong southerly winds continue to impact the regional airports with the strongest winds expected at KBRO and KHRL the remainder of the day. Winds will be slow to decoupled completely and may not do so until after 05Z. At that time, low level wind shear is likely to develop with winds at 1000-2000 ft strengthening to 50kts overnight. Some lower clouds to develop over the region with a MVFR ceilings to impact all airports after 05Z and persist through Thursday 14Z. Strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts expected once again Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Now through Thursday....An enhanced pressure gradient due to low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will maintain elevated winds across all coastal waters, driving elevated seas and adverse marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories have been extended and will likely continue until further notice. Thursday night through Wednesday....Strong south-southeast winds ahead of the cold front will result in adverse to hazardous marine conditions Thursday night through Friday. Following the cold frontal passage on Saturday, strong northerly winds are expected to develop leading to continued adverse to hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions due to these strong winds and elevated seas will persist from Thursday night through the weekend. By Monday, these winds are expected to subside giving way to moderate seas. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, favorable marine conditions are finally expected with low to moderate seas and winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 90 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 74 83 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ251-254-255- 351-354-355-455. High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225287 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 203 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .NEAR TERM... (This afternoon, Tonight and Thursday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Southeast winds continue to increase to 15-20G25-30 mph as warm front lifts north of the region and expect the last of the sea fog and low level stratus along the SE GA coastal counties to scour out and dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise near record warmth in the upper 80s/lower 90s over inland areas will combine with low level instability as dew points reach into the lower 70s and the inland moving East Coast sea breeze to develop scattered showers and isolated storms, mainly over inland SE GA to the west of the US 301 corridor, but isolated convection is possible across inland NE FL as well. Temps still cool enough aloft to kick off a few strong storms with gusty winds/small hail into the evening hours around sunset. Tonight...SE winds diminish to 5-10 mph over inland areas under mostly clear skies late this evening, with light enough winds and low level moisture for patchy fog/low stratus formation again towards morning, but likely low level flow too much to allow for widespread dense fog formation. Above normal low temps in the 65-70F inland and around 70F along the Atlantic Coast. Thursday...Breezy SE to S flow at 15-20G25-30 mph will continue to bring near record warmth and humidity to the region as Max temps push to around 90F over inland areas, while the onshore flow will keep the Atlantic Coast in the lower/middle 80s. Slightly drier airmass aloft should limit any daytime convection with rainfall chances generally 10% or less, although cannot rule out a brief and/or isolated shower along the East Coast sea breeze as it moves inland through the afternoon hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Winds continue out of the south to southeast as high pressure ridging, under a ridge aloft, continues over the area bringing unseasonably high temperatures. Winds out of the southeast will allow the sea-breeze to make its way inland in the afternoon, keeping temperatures a little cooler for coastal areas. High daytime temperatures are going to be in the upper 80s to low 90s Friday over inland areas with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s closest to the Atlantic coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the low to mid 60s over inland southeast Georgia with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s over inland northeast Florida. Wind coming in off the Atlantic will help keep temperatures slightly warmer along the coast. Fog will be possible overnight into the morning hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s to low 90s over the weekend with lows in the 60s. Going into next week, a cold front will make its way into the area from the northwest. As the front approaches the area, chances for rain and possibly a few storms will begin to increase starting as early as Sunday evening through Monday. Showers may linger into Tuesday depending on front timing. Temperatures will cool off behind the passing front to bring temperatures down to near normal then below normal into mid-week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 All NE FL TAF sites have cleared out early this afternoon with VFR conds and increasing SE winds to 12-16G21-24 knots expected through the afternoon hours, while SE GA TAF site at SSI still has some lingering IFR stratus/sea fog that should end by 20Z becoming VFR with gusty SE winds through the evening hours. Gusty SE winds will last longer than usual this evening with no significant decrease until the 03-05Z time frame, and about this time expect MVFR stratus deck to develop around 1500 feet and progress northward and impact all NE FL TAF sites, even developing at IFR levels at SSI and trending downward towards sunrise with MVFR VSBYS expected along with LIFR CIGS at SSI and a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGS at the NE FL TAF sites, how low the vsbys/cigs go will depend on how much SE winds decrease and allows the boundary layer to decouple from surface conds. Lower conds will lift to MVFR levels in the 13-15Z time frame along with a slow increase in SE winds and have shown this trend towards the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Southeast flow around high pressure ridge through the end of the week will average out in the 15-20 knot range with seas building into the 4 to 6 feet range, so will place SCEC (Small Craft Exercise Caution) headlines in the forecast this package. Flow becomes south this weekend at similar speeds as the ridge axis pushes further southward and more offshore into the Western Atlantic, so SCEC headlines look likely to continue. Flow becomes Southwest ahead of the next cold frontal boundary on Monday and may reach close to SCA levels late in the day into Monday Night. Otherwise...Dense sea fog from late this morning along the SE GA coast has scoured out and dissipated early this afternoon as Southeast winds have increased and have canceled the dense fog advisories, BUT will need to monitor for possible re-development late tonight into early Thursday morning over the nearshore waters if the winds slacken off. Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rips will continue in the southeast flow through Friday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 158 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible today, mainly over southeast Georgia but, could get down into the Suwannee Valley late this afternoon into the early evening. Winds continue out of the northeast into Friday, allowing the Atlantic sea-breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. Expect sustained winds of 15-20 mph east of HWY-17 today and tomorrow with gusts up to 30 mph as the sea-breeze makes its way in. Warming temperatures with high transport winds will create patchy high daytime dispersion over inland areas today through Friday. MinRH values are not expected to drop below 38 through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 66 90 66 88 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 68 78 68 79 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 68 88 67 86 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 68 85 68 83 / 0 10 0 0 GNV 67 92 66 91 / 20 0 0 0 OCF 68 92 66 91 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225286 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 201 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow continues today with high pressure offshore. The lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm front tonight with much above normal warmth arriving for Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying another cold front. && .UPDATE... Forecast remains on track for today. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm remain possible in the Pee Dee and Grand Strand areas this afternoon into this evening. Along the Cape Fear coast, a confluence band and associated showers will continue lifting slowly northeastward, providing brief periods of rain in Pender county for the next hour or so. See updated TAF discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north will continue to bring onshore flow today into tonight. The result will be partly to mostly cloudy skies and it isn`t impossible that there could be a few light showers around. Highs today will reach mid to upper 70s with cooler numbers nearer the ocean. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure to the east and upper level ridging off of the southeastern Atlantic coast will serve as the catalyst for a humid, late-week warmup. Highs on Thursday will be well above normal, many areas will likely climb into the mid 80s. A sea breeze near the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Breezy behind a strong afternoon sea breeze. Southerly winds overnight will keep dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warmer on Friday and Saturday as the ridge strengthens. Inland areas have a shot at seeing their first 90 degree high of the year on Friday and each day after. This would be nearly a month before the average first 90 degree day of May 2nd for FLO/LBT. The best chance of seeing 90 degrees will be on Sunday as warm air advection increases ahead of the next cold front. Cooler on the coast as a strong sea breeze develops, keeping coastal temperatures in the mid and upper 70s to around 80. Humid each day with dew points solidly in the 60s. A cold front approaches the area late Sunday into Monday. This initial front will bring a chance of showers late Sunday. Some weak instability inland could produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. The shortwave accompanying the cold front will weaken as it lifts northward late Sunday into Monday. A secondary shortwave will approach the area on Monday. Lift will be stronger and more pronounced with the second wave and this should be the best chance of showers. Cooler air will follow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Easterly winds will gradually veer to southeasterly through this evening as a stalled front gradually lifts back northward, with south winds expected at all terminals before the end of the night as the front lifts north of the area. Moisture overrunning this front is expected to produce widespread MVFR cig restrictions overnight, with high confidence in continuous restrictions (and moderate potential for IFR to LIFR cigs) at far inland terminals. At the coastal terminals, there is moderate confidence that MVFR cig development late today will see a temporary return back to VFR for a few hours overnight before returning to MVFR, with this most likely at the SC coastal terminals, although ILM could also experience this break. Otherwise, expect MVFR cigs to persist through tonight and into tomorrow morning, with insolation helping to break up the cigs by around noon. Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morining from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday. && .MARINE... Through tonight... E winds to 10 to 15 KT will become SE and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT. Thursday through Sunday... High pressure will maintain southerly winds between 10-15 knots through the weekend. The pressure gradient will increase late this weekend ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday, and building seas to 6 feet could become more widespread as a prolonged fetch southerly winds builds the wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225285 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 150 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog present throughout the region this morning has gradually cleared, with the exception of coastal Walton County. Remaining fog in coastal Walton is expected to leave the area by noon CDT. Light southerly winds, clear skies, and warming temperatures are expected moving into this afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Interestingly, a few models develop isolated convection across the northeast corner of the forecast area in association with some weak surface convergence. Confidence is not high on this, but if convection were to occur, then gusty convective winds would be possible due to high DCAPE this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail. High temperatures will vary across the region with the coolest temperatures this afternoon along the coast with onshore flow from the relatively cooler water. Away from the coast, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s to near 90 possible across the eastern part of the area. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure to our east will keep our weather warm and dry to start the term. An upper level trough well to our northwest with an accompanying cold front will create continue the breezy conditions from Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient. The cold front will not approach the region as the upper level support will be separated from the front, stalling it along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Deep layer ridging off the east coast of Florida will be strong enough to block the system through the weekend. Until then, expect warming temperatures with near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be muggy in the mid to upper 60s. The pattern changes when a new shortwave trough develops to our west late this weekend and pushes eastward, as the high pressure also moves off to the east. This would move the previously mentioned frontal system over to the eastern third of the U.S. by Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain, and cooler temperatures to follow. PoPs range around 50-60 percent Sunday evening through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about 1.5-2" for this event, so heavy rainfall is possible. However, the progressiveness of the front should deter any prolonged flooding from occurring. Yet, minor urban and low-lying areas could experience flash flooding. The WPC for Day 5 (Sunday) has highlighted for areas along and west of the Tifton to Port St Joe line in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall. From Albany to Panama City line and west is included in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected for these regions from Sunday through Monday. Regarding any severe weather, the potential is not zero but, the amount of instability available will be waning as the system moves east Sunday night into Monday. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will enter the region with temperatures cooling to the upper 60s/low 70s for the highs, and lows will fall to the 50s. There is still much uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and potential hazards, yet we will continue to monitor and check back for further updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR and breezy conditions will prevail this afternoon and toward the end of the TAF period. Visibility is not expected to be as poor overnight as this morning. Mainly MVFR visibilities are forecast. However, IFR ceilings are expected at ECP and TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog will clear as the day moves forward. We can expect fog to redevelop at times for the next few days. Southerly flow will increase through the week, leading to Cautionary level conditions prevailing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of south-central Georgia this afternoon. MinRH values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast today and Thursday away from the coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Next chance for rain will be late this weekend into the start of next week. The WPC has highlighted our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) and Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall for Sunday. Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Mainly flash flooding is the concern due to the high PWATs of nearly 2 inches. This may cause some river rises, however our rivers are in good condition. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 84 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 68 80 68 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 67 87 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 67 88 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 68 90 67 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 68 77 67 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751. && $$ |
| #1225284 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 155 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this afternoon, with high pressure shifting offshore of the New England coast. A deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper ridging building over the srn Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A warm front continues to approach the FA from the south and temps are generally in the 60s across central, south, and southeast portions of the FA...but are struggling to get out of the 50s in the Piedmont and eastern shore thanks to lower cloud cover and an onshore component to the flow. The strong low moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be warm so we`ll likely have a capping inversion to contend with. As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the eastern shore. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday. - Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing temperatures possible Tuesday night. The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front. Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing temps possible in spots. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this afternoon, but cloud bases have lowered to 4000-8000 ft at RIC. CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight as a warm front approaches and crosses the area. IFR CIGs are likely overnight at RIC, with low-end MVFR near the coast. No fog is expected as winds will remain at least 10-12 kt. Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area. ESE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of ~20 kt become SE tonight and veer to the SW on Thursday after the warm front moves N of the terminals. Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Mainly dry Thu/Thu night outside of an isolated shower/tstm INVOF SBY. A backdoor front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the area. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. 1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt. Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to ~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn, and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around 3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft (highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW wind from mixing over adjacent land areas. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225283 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:09 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 157 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will be lifting northwards across the region today. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Midday update: A few showers are trying to pop in the tri-county area. Otherwise, forecast appears on track at the moment. Morning composite analysis reveals a nearly stalled boundary arcing through SE Georgia into the Atlantic and inverted surface trough sitting up through the outer coastal waters. Small cluster of showers/thunder is noted in the SC outer waters. Meanwhile, low stratus/fog continues to get shoved inland while eroding along the eastern edge, giving way to partly sunny skies across the local forecast area. Today: Low level flow will strengthen out of the S/SE as we go through the afternoon and eventually break down the inverted trough offshore. Clearing skies inland and warming temps will lead to building instability with MLCAPE values increasing to between 1500-2500 J/Kg...greatest well inland...underneath at least some modest 0-6km bulk shear. Meanwhile, with heating and the onshore component to the low level flow, a decent sea breeze will be developing and press inland this afternoon. With minimal capping, isolated to scattered showers/storms should pop this afternoon with hi-res guidance solutions suggesting the best coverage across the South Carolina quad county area as well as inland southeast Georgia. Will see how it develops, but morning forecast update will featured isolated to scattered POP across the areas mentioned. Severe weather potential appears low...but some storm organization is possible along with some gusty wind potential with DCAPE values in excess of 500 J/Kg. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts exp[anding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, no mention is required as of this time. Those winds will prevent full decoupling over most of the region, and that along with a south- southeast low level flow will limit minimum temps to just the middle 60s, or around 15F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm/hot temperatures are the main story for the short term. Upper level ridging strengthens on Thursday and again on Friday, and with situational awareness tables (ESATs) showing record high 500 hPa geopotential heights occurring in relation to 30-year normals, warm/hot temperatures are expected. ESATs also show temperatures at 850 hPa over the 90th percentile of climatology are expected, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to upper 80s for inland areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Friday is looking to be a degree or two warmer given the continued strengthening of the upper level ridge, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for inland areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. The good news? These temperatures will be brought down to the surface by mixy winds, so expect at least a slight breeze to help cool-down. Can`t rule out some 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, as NBM probabilities show 20-30% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 50-70% range for inland GA counties. Probabilities increase on Friday, with NBM probabilities show 30-50% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 60-80% range for inland GA counties. The additional good news is the afternoon sea-breeze will be coming ashore in the mid/late afternoon hours, which will help cool the region back down again. Saturday will begin to see the weakening/shifting of the upper level ridge axis, but given the lack of a fresh airmass expect a near carbon copy of Friday for Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday fall into the mid to upper 60s. Record high daily maximums may occur on Saturday, though the current forecast falls about 2 degrees shy at the Charleston airport. Record high daily minimums look much more likely, with the current forecast within 2-3 degrees Thursday-Sunday, but is going to be largely dependent on the strength of the afternoon sea-breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level wave moves out of the Ontario providence Sunday into Monday, but before that reaches the area another day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected. Relief is in sight as the strong aforementioned wave is accompanied by a surface high pressure moving into the central plains, which will help send a cold front towards the region sometime Sunday/Monday. Scattered showers are expected prior to the frontal passage, with the NBM bringing chances (20-30%) for scattered showers starting late Sunday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the front pushes. NBM does seem to hang onto the chances for rainfall for too long, but looking at the ensembles this largely due to the timing different amongst the models. Current forecasted highs on Monday are in the lower/mid 70s, falling into the upper 60s lower 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: MVFR cigs linger across the region, although cigs should further lift into the low VFR range in the next hour or two. A few showers are also popping across the area and could impact the terminals through the afternoon...particularly across the KCHS and KJZI terminal sites...along with a low end chance for TSRA. Also, gustier south-southeasterly winds continue through the afternoon with gusts running 17 to 22 knots. Shower activity and gustiness ends this evening. Another period of low (MVFR-IFR) ceilings is possible again late this evening and overnight followed by slowly improving conditions Thursday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions may be possible Thursday morning due to both sea and land fog, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible. After that, generally quiet aviation conditions are expected through Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the NE and E the rest of the day. The local gradient will tighten somewhat, and that along with the sea breeze will result in winds veering to the SE as high as 10-15 or 15 kt. Charleston Harbor will experience some gusts around 20 kt this afternoon due to deeper mixing due to the nearby warmer land mass. Seas will be a mix of wind driven waves and swells, climbing to 2-4 feet. The coverage of the fog has diminished since earlier due to nearby showers, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. We still maintain patchy fog through the morning hours, but with the formation of the sea breeze, edifier is left by then will have dissipated. Tonight: High pressure will control the weather across the area, and with increasing low level winds, surface winds will also respond. SE winds will climb up to another 5 kt or so, except holding at similar speeds with less gustiness in Charleston Harbor. Seas build up to another foot given the higher winds. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches today. Thursday: Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday, with near-shore winds remaining out of the south-southeast at around 10- 12 knots, bringing waves of 3-4 feet into the beach zones every 8-10 seconds. Thursday - Saturday: Surface high pressure off to our east, with generally quiet marine conditions forecasted into the weekend, with winds around 10 knots and seas averaging 3 to 4 ft in the near-shore waters, fairly consistently near 4 feet in the offshore Georgia zone Sunday: The surface pressure gradient begins to rise overnight into Sunday, remaining elevated throughout the day. Currently have winds remaining below small craft criteria, but something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225282 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 137 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 9:50 AM Wednesday...Only minor tweaks were made to the forecast with the mid-morning update. Hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers developing across southwestern zones early this afternoon in association with a weak coastal trough. PoPs have been increased but kept below mentionable given the overall lack of moisture and feeble forcing. Previous Discussion...As of 635 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight, which will allow clouds to increase and lower through the day. Despite rising low- level thicknesses, the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s (10-15 deg above normal for early April). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 130 PM Wed...VFR conditions lingering at all terminals (except OAJ) early this afternoon despite developing stratocumulus deck; however, this cloud layer continues to lower and thicken, with MVFR conditions already noted at OAJ. Low-level moistening amidst easterly flow is expected to support further lowering of ceilings this afternoon and evening, with all terminals expected to drop to MVFR over the next few hours. Easterly winds gradually become more southerly overnight, and guidance continues to indicate IFR ceilings for all terminals tonight. Thus have introduced prevailing IFR groups late tonight into tomorrow morning. A few isolated showers will be possible tonight as well as a warm front advances through the region. However, confidence is still low enough in coverage and occurrence of showers to preclude a mention in the TAFs. Low clouds will then begin to mix out tomorrow after sunrise, with ceilings expected to lift to VFR by early afternoon. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there is potential for the outer central and southern waters to briefly build to 6 ft overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225281 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Aviation... MVFR to VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through this evening. Low clouds and patchy fog will develop tonight with IFR conditions possible. VFR conditions return by late Thursday morning. /13 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A large upper trof over the western and central states moves little through Friday, then finally progresses slowly into the eastern CONUS through Tuesday. A surface low lifts from the Plains to across the Great Lakes and gradually brings a frontal boundary towards the region that extends from Tennessee to eastern Texas by Thursday before stalling. A surface ridge meanwhile remains in place over the southeastern states, and this pattern tightens the pressure gradient sufficiently to result in breezy conditions for much of the area today. Have opted to issue a Wind Advisory from 10 am to 7 pm roughly along and west of I-65 for wind gusts up to 40 mph. In addition, it appears that minor coastal flooding is possible mainly along the Mobile Bay Causeway, and have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 am until 6 pm for this concern. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties until 9 am this morning, by which time any lingering fog should have dissipated as the southerly flow increases. Will need to also monitor for additional fog development near the coast tonight. Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area through Thursday, then small pops follow for portions of southeast Mississippi on Friday as a series of modest shortwaves move across the region. As the large upper trof begins to advances towards the eastern states, another surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains and bring a cold front through the forecast area mainly during the day on Sunday. It appears that a shortwave trof (or series of shortwaves) embedded in the large upper trof pattern will move across the forecast region Saturday into Sunday morning which could aid/result in a line of convection moving through the area either ahead of or along the approaching cold front. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for the western third of the area on Saturday with slight chance to likely pops following for Saturday night, with the highest pops over portions of southeast Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are expected for Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg are indicated over the western half of the area on Saturday which then spread over the remainder of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. A 40 knot 850 mb jet develops on Saturday and may strengthen a bit more Saturday night before tapering off on Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor this time period for a strong to severe storm risk. SPC has included a portion of the area west of I-65 in a 15% severe storm risk for Saturday into Saturday night, with the central and eastern portions of the area in a 15% risk for Sunday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 && .MARINE... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Alabama Gulf waters until 1 pm Thursday, and is also in effect for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 3 pm this afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution over much of the remainder of the area. Dense fog is expected over bays and near shore waters until mid morning, and will need to monitor for additional fog development tonight. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 82 69 81 69 82 67 78 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 80 Pensacola 70 77 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 Destin 68 78 69 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 Evergreen 65 86 66 86 64 86 66 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 80 Waynesboro 69 87 68 86 68 86 65 73 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 80 Camden 67 85 68 87 66 87 66 75 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 90 Crestview 65 83 65 84 64 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263- 264. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225280 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1226 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday - Heat index values between 102-107 degrees Thursday across the Coastal Plains As the current low-level jet moves eastward this morning into the Gulf waters, the strongest winds will be confined to the Coastal Bend. Another low level jet is expected to redevelop tonight promoting gusty winds once again across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. Well above normal temperatures will continue today and Thursday with daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal. A dryline is still expected to move into the Brush Country today providing drier air which will help keep heat index values in check across the Brush Country. Heat index values today will range from the mid to upper 90s across the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads while the Coastal Plains sits a bit warmer between 100-105 degrees. Heat index values will be a bit higher Thursday with most of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads in the upper 90s while the Coastal Plains ranges from 102-107 degrees. Not much relief from the heat is expected tonight as overnight lows only drop into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 As we conclude the work week, we can expect hot and humid temperatures to last just a touch longer ahead of our next cold front Saturday. We can expect highs to be in the 80s and 90s across much of the region with 100s out in the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains Friday. Saturdays cold front will bring temperatures back down to more seasonal temperatures as we head into next week. Highs will return to the 70s and 80s with lows back down in the 40s and 50s through midweek. Model guidance continues to keep precip chances confined to the Victoria Crossroads and the waters as the front sweeps through the region. Temperatures will gradually warm as we progress through the week likely returning to above normal as onshore flow returns to region late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Most terminals have seen improved visibilities, with the exception of KVCT and other terminals to the NE which are still hanging on to haze/shallow fog. With the low cloud deck already improving in southern Victoria County, we should see improvement there in the early afternoon. Winds will remain pretty breezy out of the S/SE east of, and including, KALI through the night, aided by the return of the low-level jet. Fog briefly returns Thursday morning, but will be short lived and generally remain above 2SM through mid-morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong (BF-6) southerly flow will continue this morning before relaxing to fresh levels (BF-5) this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. While winds will periodically drop below 20 knots, seas will remain elevated through Thursday which has led to an extension to the Small Craft Advisory. With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-10 ft waves, and 5-7 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be more fresh, with waves dropping to 4-5 ft in the nearshore waters, and down to 5-7 ft in the offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 While relative humidity values will drop to as low as 20-35% across the Brush Country today and 20-40% Thursday, winds will remain relatively weak under 15-20 mph which when combined with Energy Release Component values in the bottom 50th percentile will negate elevated fire weather conditions. Energy Release Components can be expected to generally top out in the 30th to 50th percentile class through the upcoming week. With the presence of daily dry line passages, over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, relative humidity values can be expected the upper teens to 30% range. 20 ft winds aloft are expected to generally remain under 20 kts, though with relative humidity values remaining so low the fire risk will be limited through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 92 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 89 73 87 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 72 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 98 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 72 84 74 84 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 72 97 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 83 73 82 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225279 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:39 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in our northern counties today and tomorrow. An isolated stronger thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. 2) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times. The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon, allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the cap would need to be much weaker. Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing. Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only expected to drop into the low/mid 70s. Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping (though still show no shortage of capping). SPC is indicating a slightly higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow. However, recent guidance has backed off on QPF / precip. So it may be worth looking at SPC`s afternoon update for potential changes to the outlook. Self && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: - Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north of I-10. - Flooding potential increases this weekend. - A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week, following the front. Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions, and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential. The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong 40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday as it may impact the potential for Saturday. We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland will likely see more persistent VFR conditions, whereas areas closer to the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or potentially none at all. Isolated showers will be possible near KCLL this afternoon, with low but non-zero chances for thunderstorms. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening with occasional IFR CIGS possible near the coast. CIGs slowly lift Thursday morning though MVFR CIGs should persist into the afternoon once again. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front. In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 72 88 73 / 40 10 20 20 Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 75 / 10 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 10 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ177>179-199- 200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225278 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Quick update sent mainly to increase winds a touch more as multiple locations are seeing wind gusts above 40 mph and even NEW gusting to 51 mph. The rest of the forecast looks good for now so no other adjustments made to the public forecast. /CAB/ && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A warm day expected today as heights continue to increase with the H5 ridge building across the western Atlantic. This will place our region in an active southwest flow, however, rain chances stay to our north and west through the short term. A cold front tries to move toward our region on Thursday, but stalls out under this flow upstream. At the surface, pressure gradient will remain fairly tight between a strong high pressure off the east coast and low pressure over the high plains. This is also causing a long fetch across the Gulf, which will not only have marine impacts (see marine section), but also pile water along the coast leading to coastal flooding. This package it was decided to place the southeast facing shore/beaches in a Coastal Flood Warning during high tide as guidance is right around that threshold and these areas are pretty vulnerable to high water. Elsewhere, all coastal zones apart from the southshore have been issued an advisory. Coastal Flood Watches continue beyond today into Thursday and will be evaluated again for possible upgrades to an advisory or warning in subsequent updates. The wind advisory for landbased zones remains in effect again as the strong pressure gradient remains locked across the entire CWFA. If we happen to get some breaks, some stronger winds may mix down in gusts up to 40 mph or so. Otherwise, along the immediate coast, fog/low stratus will be possible through mid morning or so. Visibilities aren`t that of needing a landbased dense fog advisory yet, but we will continue to monitor that potential through sunrise, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. And again, well above average through the short term with near record highs currently in the forecast. The warmest locations will be inland where some may approach 90F. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A fairly robust 593 H5 ridge will continue to reside off the east coast going into the start of the long term. This feature again will continue the overall southwesterly flow aloft over our region and also provide us with a continuation of above average temperatures going into the last bit of the workweek. However, the large scale trough across the western tier states will finally start to break this feature down. The stubborn frontal boundary that stalled from TX to the Ohio Valley will finally start to move toward our region this weekend. Globals are still in good agreement with the timing of this feature. That said, there will be at least some severe potential late Saturday and into Sunday morning, although timing looks to be a limitation at this juncture. That said, we will still continue to monitor as shear and at least modest instability will be present with the better parameters and better forcing residing just to our north. Ahead of the front the southerly fetch will continue right up until the front passes. This will likely continue the need for coastal flood products with multiple days of water piling up along the coast and into the tidal lakes. Behind the front, strong CAA takes shape, which should drop our temperatures by about 20 degrees in terms of afternoon MaxTs. That said, there are some slight differences in the Globals in terms of the frontal evolution after it passes. ECM wants to slow things down a bit, which could keep some lingering showers around, but the GFS is more progressive sending the front well east of our area. Implications of course here would be POPs to start the new workweek. Over the last couple of runs the ECM has sped up a bit, but still largely lacks the progressiveness in the GFS solution. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Biggest concern is still MVFR cigs which is impacting almost all terminals. These may break up enough to get sct clouds and allow for a short duration of VFR status but overall we will likely be dealing with MVFR through most of the forecast. Tonight MVFR and even IFR cigs will impact most if not all terminals. Other issue is winds. Very gusty winds will continue through the day but LLWS may be an issue during the evening and overnight hours as the BL starts to decouple but winds just off the deck continue to blow around 30-35 kts. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 1137 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Quick update to add a Gale Warning to the tidal lakes as multiple wind gusts well over 35 kts were occurring at MSY and NEW. With that decided to upgrade just that area to a Gale Warning. However, no where else did it look like we were getting Gale conditions. Gale Warning has already been issued. /CAB/ Hazardous marine conditions have developed with small craft advisories in effect for all local waters. In addition, marine fog has developed right along the coast as rich low level moisture advects over cooler waters. Going into late week, moderate winds and seas at least expected with a likely long standing SCA for most if not all the local waters. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday, which will again strengthen the low level flow out ahead of this feature. It is quite possible we will need small craft advisories into early next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 70 87 71 / 10 0 10 10 BTR 87 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 86 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 80 71 81 71 / 10 0 10 0 PQL 82 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058- 066>069-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076- 078. GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ087- 088. Coastal Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday afternoon for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM... Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1225277 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 118 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 916 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Inland dense fog continues to slowly lift and dissipate across SE GA, while high dew points continue to stream across the cooler nearshore coastal waters with sea fog continuing along the Atlantic Coast and Dense fog advisories continue for the local waters, while an SPS has been posted for the coastal counties. Otherwise, near record warmth continues with highs in the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast with heat index values into the mid/upper 90s this afternoon. Breezy Southeast winds expected to develop today with sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts into the 25-30 mph range at times. The East coast sea breeze will push inland and there is still potential for isolated storms from the US 301 corridor into inland areas for a few strong storms, mainly across inland SE GA with gusty winds and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low level moisture is expected to result in low stratus and fog this morning. Have issued a dense fog advisory for areas most likely to experience low visibilities based on latest guidance and current satellite and observations. This area may need to be expanded. Morning fog and stratus will lift after sunrise this morning. Surface high pressure will be located to the northeast through Tonight. This pattern will result in a prevailing flow from the southeast. A combination of a weak upper wave, and diurnal instability will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon inland. The thunderstorms which do develop will move further inland through the afternoon with the flow. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will range from east to west Today, with highs in the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast, to the lower 90s inland. Convection will dissipate this evening, with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be common Tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 HOT and dry with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland each day. An unseasonably strong 500 mb ridge center dominates just east of the FL Atlantic coast with the low level ridge axis extending from a center near Bermuda to across the local forecast area. Strong subsidence will bring dry weather, with a prevailing east coast sea breeze regime keeping coastal locations `cooler` with highs in the mid 80s. Gusty ESE winds of 20-30 mph will impact locations locations inland toward the St. Johns River basin each afternoon trailing the east coast sea breeze. Mild overnight low temperatures will range in the 60s with patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The heat continues this weekend with strong subsidence in place. The region of hottest daytime highs shifts gradually west to east from Saturday into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs continuing Sat & Sun. Gusty WSW winds develop Sunday as the next frontal system approaches from the west with consensus guidance still showing a low (< 30%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. Drier air filters across SE GA into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage with a few linger mainly coastal showers possible for NE FL as breezy NNE flow develops into mid-week. A cool down next week trailing the frontal passage with temperatures falling near and below climo values for early April with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue and lows ranging in the 40s to 50s. At this time, forecast guidance keeps low temperatures above frost potential. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 All NE FL TAF sites have cleared out early this afternoon with VFR conds and increasing SE winds to 12-16G21-24 knots expected through the afternoon hours, while SE GA TAF site at SSI still has some lingering IFR stratus/sea fog that should end by 20Z becoming VFR with gusty SE winds through the evening hours. Gusty SE winds will last longer than usual this evening with no significant decrease until the 03-05Z time frame, and about this time expect MVFR stratus deck to develop around 1500 feet and progress northward and impact all NE FL TAF sites, even developing at IFR levels at SSI and trending downward towards sunrise with MVFR VSBYS expected along with LIFR CIGS at SSI and a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGS at the NE FL TAF sites, how low the vsbys/cigs go will depend on how much SE winds decrease and allows the boundary layer to decouple from surface conds. Lower conds will lift to MVFR levels in the 13-15Z time frame along with a slow increase in SE winds and have shown this trend towards the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure will be northeast of the region Today and Thursday. A few morning thunderstorms will be possible over the waters, along with potential for fog closer to the coast. The high will become centered more toward the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move away to the east Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front is forecast to move through Sunday night and Monday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: High Risk For Rip Currents Through Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High inland dispersion today and Thursday for inland locations including the Okefenokee NWR, Osceola NF and Ocala NF with above normal high temperatures near 90 degrees and elevated SE transport winds. A dominant east coast sea breeze is expected each day with mostly dry conditions. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph trailing the sea breeze with gusts up to 30 mph possible, mainly for locations near and east of the I-95 corridor and near St. Johns River basin. Minimum relative humidity will remain above critical values. Inland fog is possible the next couple of nights. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 66 90 66 / 40 20 0 0 SSI 78 68 78 68 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 89 68 88 66 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 85 68 85 67 / 10 0 10 0 GNV 92 67 92 65 / 20 20 0 0 OCF 93 68 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450. Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ452. && $$ |
| #1225276 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 117 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today, bringing seasonal temperatures. Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday into Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives Sunday into Sunday night as a cold front moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for widespread frost Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Early morning sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery showed cirrus building into the area from the W. Cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E this morning. Temps as of 650 AM ranged from the mid-upper 30s N/NE to the mid 40s SW. The high to the N gradually moves E across New England today creating a bit of a CAD setup across the Piedmont. As such, expect mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont today with partly cloudy skies along and E of I-95. Cannot rule out some light drizzle or a brief sprinkle across the Piedmont this afternoon, but confidence is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Given the cloud cover across the Piedmont, temps will likely remain cooler. However, some models have a warm front lifting N by late afternoon into the S portions of the FA with temps potentially warming. Therefore, confidence in temps is lowest across the Piedmont and they may need to be lowered (around 60F as opposed to mid 60s) if the CAD holds on. The onshore flow will also keep temps cooler along the coast and the Eastern Shore with highs in the mid 50s (around 50F at Ocean City, MD). In between these areas, temps likely rise into the lower 60s across N central VA and mid-upper 60s across S central VA. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting a warm front N across the FA. As such, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large ridge builds across the E CONUS, allowing for well above normal temperatures. In fact, Summer-like temperatures are expected Thu and Fri with highs in the low-mid 80s (most in the mid 80s) Thu and mid- upper 80s for most Fri (mid-upper 70s across the far N including the Eastern Shore). Dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s Thu with ample CAPE and shear developing across the area. However, a shortwave passes well to the N of the local area across the Ohio Valley and N VA with no real forcing for showers/storms across the local area. As such, most models keep the local area dry Thu. However, a few models indicate the potential for the forcing to be a touch farther S with storms potentially moving across far N portions of the FA Thu afternoon into Thu evening. As such, only have 15-30% PoPs across this area. However, given the environment, if storms do develop, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. As such, SPC has this area under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms Thu with a slight risk (level 2/5) bordering the N portions of the FA and including all of N VA. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-medium. For now, have 40-50% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Otherwise, a sharp temperature gradient is possible across N portions of the FA behind the front Fri with highs in the 70s NE (possibly cooler) whereas temps S of the front likely rise into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday. - Widespread showers and storms are possible Sunday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with widespread frost possible Tuesday night. A large ridge remains in place across the E CONUS this weekend with a large, stationary front located W of the Appalachians. As such, expect well above normal temps to continue with highs in the mid- upper 80s S and 70s NE Sat and mid-upper 80s Sun (most in the upper 80s). A warm front lifts N across the area Sat. However, it may not lift N in time for the Eastern Shore to see much warming with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and low-mid 70s elsewhere. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected Sat apart from a few light showers across N portions of the FA early in the day. Mostly cloudy skies linger across the Eastern Shore with partly cloudy skies elsewhere by the afternoon. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible. The cold front finally begins to approach from the W Sun night with widespread showers and storms possible ahead of the front Sun afternoon into Sun night. Showers may linger across SE portions of the FA into Mon evening. Behind the front, dry weather returns with temps cooling drastically. Highs are only expected to range from the mid-upper 60s for most Mon and in the mid-upper 50s N to around 60F S Tue. Lows will also cool with lows Mon night in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are possible along with widespread frost. The NBM even has some portions of the FA dropping below freezing. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this afternoon, but cloud bases have lowered to 4000-8000 ft at RIC. CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight as a warm front approaches and crosses the area. IFR CIGs are likely overnight at RIC, with low-end MVFR near the coast. No fog is expected as winds will remain at least 10-12 kt. Conditions improve to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area. ESE winds of 10-15 kt with gusts of ~20 kt become SE tonight and veer to the SW on Thursday after the warm front moves N of the terminals. Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Mainly dry Thu/Thu night outside of an isolated shower/tstm INVOF SBY. A backdoor front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40% chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the area. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. 1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt. Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to ~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn, and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around 3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft (highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW wind from mixing over adjacent land areas. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225275 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:12 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Breezy southeast winds with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. The chance for showers and storms returns early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. -Warming trend into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching the lower 90s west of I-95. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 As low stratus and patchy fog erodes this morning, temperatures are climbing into the mid and upper 70s. A field of cumulus clouds is already developing, so anticipate a mix of sun and fair weather clouds through the day. Plenty of warming will take place, despite an east coast sea breeze moving inland this afternoon. Inland locations will warm the most, prior to the sea breeze, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s (including the Orlando metro). Coastal sites will reach the mid to upper 80s. This update brings temperatures up a degree or two in spots. Breezy southeast winds gusting 20-25 mph can also be expected, especially closer to the coast. The remainder of the forecast is on track. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula today, and will dominate the local weather pattern. Surface high pressure across the NE US coast will slowly shift southward into the Atlantic waters into this afternoon, continuing to move seaward through tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus are once again possible early this morning across much of east central Florida, especially over areas that received rain yesterday. Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog that does form is forecast to lift by 9 AM. Light winds this morning will become southeast by mid/late morning, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph at times by this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air in the mid-upper levels with PW values ranging from 1.1-1.2". Despite this sufficient low level moisture and an inland moving sea breeze, no mentionable rain chances are forecast through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure off the Northeast US coast on Thursday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Wednesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. A surface high pressure will then build across the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Lingering moisture across east central Florida will support isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon, and northeast on Wednesday. Wind will become breezy (10-15 mph) Wednesday along the coast, otherwise speeds will generally be around 10 mph. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions developing in the Treasure Coast waters and the offshore Brevard waters this afternoon and continuing into tonight as southeast winds increase to 15-20 KT this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in these waters into tonight. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT in the remaining Atlantic waters. Seas 3-4ft today will increase up to 5 ft in the offshore waters tonight. No mentionable rain chances through the period. Thur-Sunday... High pressure will then dominate the local weather pattern through the weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast in the Gulf Stream waters Thursday, becoming generally favorable into the weekend. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tuesday will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT on Thursday before diminishing to around 15 KT on Friday and Saturday. Winds veer Southerly on Sunday and increase to 15-20 KT by the afternoon. Seas 4-5ft on Thursday will subside to 3-4ft on Friday through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with rain not anticipated at the terminals. Breezy and gusty southeast winds at 15 to 20 knots are forecast to persist through the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening hours, becoming lighter around 10 knots overnight. Stratus development will be possible overnight, but was not confident enough to include a TEMPO for reduced CIGs. Will continue to monitor and amend as needed. Winds pick up around 15 knots once again tomorrow morning out of the southeast, with gusts to 25 knots possible. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 70 89 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 72 84 71 84 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 72 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 70 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 70 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 71 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225273 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 PM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 1231 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mid level ridging over the region combined with a rather large surface area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic will be the two main features influencing the weather pattern across South Florida through Thursday. With plenty of subsidence taking place, drier air will continue to filer into the region especially across the mid to upper levels. The PWAT values from this mornings 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 1.24 inches with most of the available moisture at the lower levels of the atmospheric column. As high pressure continues to build into the region, the pressure gradient will rapidly tighten over South Florida which will lead to a gusty southeasterly wind flow through the rest of today and into Thursday. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible especially heading into Thursday over the eastern half of South Florida. These gusty winds will also continue to promote some lower level moisture advection during this time frame. While most areas will remain dry, there will be just enough of this lower level moisture to support the possibility of a brief fast moving shower or two mainly over the Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas. With the abundance of dry air in the mid to upper levels, any shower that does develop will be low topped and short lived. High temperatures will remain on the warm side today and Thursday as they will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s across the interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly rain-free and warm weather conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the week as strong mid-level ridging remains in place over the area. High temperatures each day will reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and could potentially rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Models suggest the high could begin to break down late this weekend into next week as a front approaches, ushering in the next bout of precipitation for the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeasterly wind flow will continue to range between 15 and 20 kts this afternoon into this evening with gusts of 25 to 28 kts possible across the east coast terminals. This gusty southeasterly wind flow will persist into Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to fresh southeasterly breeze will develop across the Gulf waters as the afternoon progresses and a fresh to occasionally strong breeze will develop over the Atlantic waters heading into the evening hours. This strengthening southeasterly wind flow along with building seas will create hazardous marine conditions over the Atlantic waters beginning this evening and lasting through early Friday morning. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 3 to 6 feet tonight into Thursday while seas across the Gulf waters will range between 2 to 4 feet during this time frame. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1226 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 With strong onshore flow persisting, this will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Coast beaches through the rest of the week and into the upcoming weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 85 74 83 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 73 85 71 86 / 0 10 0 0 Opa-Locka 73 85 73 86 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 75 85 73 84 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Lauderdale 75 84 74 82 / 10 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 75 85 74 83 / 10 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 76 85 74 87 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 73 85 72 83 / 10 10 0 0 Boca Raton 74 84 73 83 / 10 10 0 0 Naples 71 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225271 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:24 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1112 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1038 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog present throughout the region this morning has gradually cleared, with the exception of coastal Walton County. Remaining fog in coastal Walton is expected to leave the area by noon CDT. Light southerly winds, clear skies, and warming temperatures are expected moving into this afternoon. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Interestingly, a few models develop isolated convection across the northeast corner of the forecast area in association with some weak surface convergence. Confidence is not high on this, but if convection were to occur, then gusty convective winds would be possible due to high DCAPE this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail. High temperatures will vary across the region with the coolest temperatures this afternoon along the coast with onshore flow from the relatively cooler water. Away from the coast, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s to near 90 possible across the eastern part of the area. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure to our east will keep our weather warm and dry to start the term. An upper level trough well to our northwest with an accompanying cold front will create continue the breezy conditions from Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient. The cold front will not approach the region as the upper level support will be separated from the front, stalling it along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Deep layer ridging off the east coast of Florida will be strong enough to block the system through the weekend. Until then, expect warming temperatures with near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be muggy in the mid to upper 60s. The pattern changes when a new shortwave trough develops to our west late this weekend and pushes eastward, as the high pressure also moves off to the east. This would move the previously mentioned frontal system over to the eastern third of the U.S. by Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain, and cooler temperatures to follow. PoPs range around 50-60 percent Sunday evening through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about 1.5-2" for this event, so heavy rainfall is possible. However, the progressiveness of the front should deter any prolonged flooding from occurring. Yet, minor urban and low-lying areas could experience flash flooding. The WPC for Day 5 (Sunday) has highlighted for areas along and west of the Tifton to Port St Joe line in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall. From Albany to Panama City line and west is included in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected for these regions from Sunday through Monday. Regarding any severe weather, the potential is not zero but, the amount of instability available will be waning as the system moves east Sunday night into Monday. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will enter the region with temperatures cooling to the upper 60s/low 70s for the highs, and lows will fall to the 50s. There is still much uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and potential hazards, yet we will continue to monitor and check back for further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today. Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning into the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots expected. Winds will diminish again this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1038 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog will clear as the day moves forward. We can expect fog to redevelop at times for the next few days. Southerly flow will increase through the week, leading to Cautionary level conditions prevailing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of south-central Georgia this afternoon. MinRH values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast today and Thursday away from the coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Next chance for rain will be late this weekend into the start of next week. The WPC has highlighted our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) and Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall for Sunday. Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Mainly flash flooding is the concern due to the high PWATs of nearly 2 inches. This may cause some river rises, however our rivers are in good condition. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 68 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 67 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 67 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 68 90 67 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 89 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 68 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for FLZ108. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ751. && $$ |
| #1225269 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1044 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will be lifting northwards across the region today. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Morning composite analysis reveals a nearly stalled boundary arcing through SE Georgia into the Atlantic and inverted surface trough sitting up through the outer coastal waters. Small cluster of showers/thunder is noted in the SC outer waters. Meanwhile, low stratus/fog continues to get shoved inland while eroding along the eastern edge, giving way to partly sunny skies across the local forecast area. Today: Low level flow will strengthen out of the S/SE as we go through the afternoon and eventually break down the inverted trough offshore. Clearing skies inland and warming temps will lead to building instability with MLCAPE values increasing to between 1500-2500 J/Kg...greatest well inland...underneath at least some modest 0-6km bulk shear. Meanwhile, with heating and the onshore component to the low level flow, a decent sea breeze will be developing and press inland this afternoon. With minimal capping, isolated to scattered showers/storms should pop this afternoon with hi-res guidance solutions suggesting the best coverage across the South Carolina quad county area as well as inland southeast Georgia. Will see how it develops, but morning forecast update will featured isolated to scattered POP across the areas mentioned. Severe weather potential appears low...but some storm organization is possible along with some gusty wind potential with DCAPE values in excess of 500 J/Kg. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts exp[anding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, no mention is required as of this time. Those winds will prevent full decoupling over most of the region, and that along with a south- southeast low level flow will limit minimum temps to just the middle 60s, or around 15F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm/hot temperatures are the main story for the short term. Upper level ridging strengthens on Thursday and again on Friday, and with situational awareness tables (ESATs) showing record high 500 hPa geopotential heights occurring in relation to 30-year normals, warm/hot temperatures are expected. ESATs also show temperatures at 850 hPa over the 90th percentile of climatology are expected, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to upper 80s for inland areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Friday is looking to be a degree or two warmer given the continued strengthening of the upper level ridge, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for inland areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. The good news? These temperatures will be brought down to the surface by mixy winds, so expect at least a slight breeze to help cool-down. Can`t rule out some 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, as NBM probabilities show 20-30% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 50-70% range for inland GA counties. Probabilities increase on Friday, with NBM probabilities show 30-50% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 60-80% range for inland GA counties. The additional good news is the afternoon sea-breeze will be coming ashore in the mid/late afternoon hours, which will help cool the region back down again. Saturday will begin to see the weakening/shifting of the upper level ridge axis, but given the lack of a fresh airmass expect a near carbon copy of Friday for Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday fall into the mid to upper 60s. Record high daily maximums may occur on Saturday, though the current forecast falls about 2 degrees shy at the Charleston airport. Record high daily minimums look much more likely, with the current forecast within 2-3 degrees Thursday-Sunday, but is going to be largely dependent on the strength of the afternoon sea-breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level wave moves out of the Ontario providence Sunday into Monday, but before that reaches the area another day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected. Relief is in sight as the strong aforementioned wave is accompanied by a surface high pressure moving into the central plains, which will help send a cold front towards the region sometime Sunday/Monday. Scattered showers are expected prior to the frontal passage, with the NBM bringing chances (20-30%) for scattered showers starting late Sunday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the front pushes. NBM does seem to hang onto the chances for rainfall for too long, but looking at the ensembles this largely due to the timing different amongst the models. Current forecasted highs on Monday are in the lower/mid 70s, falling into the upper 60s lower 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: An area of stratus and light fog is heading toward the terminals from the north this morning, and will result in at least MVFR ceilings, potentially IFR/LIFR (especially at KCHS). By late morning ceilings will lift, and VFR looks to return for the rest of the day. However, a few showers could brush nearby late this morning/early afternoon as a warm front approaches, and there is even a risk of a TSRA mid to late afternoon as the warm front passes through. The coverage of any such convection is too small to include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty SE to S winds peaking around 17-22 kt will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon, before diminishing with sunset. Low ceilings are likely again later tonight, and flight restrictions will likely occur. KSAV: LIFR ceilings are still at the airfield early on, but as a warm front lifts through and the strong inversion weakens, a return to MVFR and eventually VFR takes place by 16Z. VFR will then prevail through the afternoon and early tonight, before flight restrictions occur again later tonight. With the passage of the warm front there could be a few showers brushing nearby. Gusty SE winds will peak close to 20 kt this afternoon with the passage of the sea breeze, before the gusts drop off by sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions may be possible Thursday morning due to both sea and land fog, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible. After that, generally quiet aviation conditions are expected through Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the NE and E the rest of the day. The local gradient will tighten somewhat, and that along with the sea breeze will result in winds veering to the SE as high as 10-15 or 15 kt. Charleston Harbor will experience some gusts around 20 kt this afternoon due to deeper mixing due to the nearby warmer land mass. Seas will be a mix of wind driven waves and swells, climbing to 2-4 feet. The coverage of the fog has diminished since earlier due to nearby showers, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. We still maintain patchy fog through the morning hours, but with the formation of the sea breeze, edifier is left by then will have dissipated. Tonight: High pressure will control the weather across the area, and with increasing low level winds, surface winds will also respond. SE winds will climb up to another 5 kt or so, except holding at similar speeds with less gustiness in Charleston Harbor. Seas build up to another foot given the higher winds. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches today. Thursday: Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday, with near-shore winds remaining out of the south-southeast at around 10- 12 knots, bringing waves of 3-4 feet into the beach zones every 8-10 seconds. Thursday - Saturday: Surface high pressure off to our east, with generally quiet marine conditions forecasted into the weekend, with winds around 10 knots and seas averaging 3 to 4 ft in the near-shore waters, fairly consistently near 4 feet in the offshore Georgia zone Sunday: The surface pressure gradient begins to rise overnight into Sunday, remaining elevated throughout the day. Currently have winds remaining below small craft criteria, but something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225270 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1041 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 904 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Muggy weather will usher in the first Wednesday of April. Temperatures along the island chain are solidly in the lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Sufficient moisture exists for cloud cover or a stray showers, as the morning KKEY sounding measured a PWAT value slightly below the 75th percentile. Radar and satellite observations identified shallow showers in the across weak wind convergence boundaries, but that is the extent of inclement weather over the CWA. Zooming out a bit, a surface high over the Atlantic is building in response to a pronounced low pressure system over the central United States will define weather across the Florida Keys today. The major event for our weather will be freshening breezes across the Keys Waters. Breezes are estimated to build above SCA thresholds by noon to 1 PM, so Small Craft Advisories were issued with the morning update. The current pattern will be rather persistent, so expect the SCA to be up for a while. Those in the Keys can rest assured, this weather will be less active than the high risk event expected in the Lower Mississippi Valley today. && .MARINE... Issued at 904 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zone. From synopsis, a strong high pressure system will continue to build in the western North Atlantic this afternoon, leading to additional freshening of east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected this afternoon through at least early Sunday as the high remains dominant across the western North Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 904 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a passing shower cannot be ruled out, the shallow and sporadic nature of showers does not warrant a mention if not already nearby a terminal. Will amend the TAFs as needed to express immediate shower impacts. Near surface winds will be out of the east to southeast at 11 to 16 knots early, then increasing to 15 to 20 with occasional higher gusts. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1987, after a high of 65F and low of 56F the previous day (the 1st), the low temperature of 48F at Key West International Airport on the 2nd shattered the cold record for the date. It is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of April (with the next-lowest being 54F in 1891), and the next-latest sub- 50F reading ever is 49F on March 4, 1980. 47F on March 3, 1986. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 77 84 77 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 84 77 84 77 / 0 10 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1225267 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low clouds have been persistent this morning across the interior after some early morning fog began to lift. However, satellite imagery continues to show this layer eroding, and at a fairly efficient pace. It should be clearing out over the next hour or so. Otherwise, today`s weather looks mostly sunny and warm. With high pressure continuing to build, the gradient is fairly tight. Thus, gusty winds, particularly in the afternoon, are expected. There is also a low, but not zero, chance for a couple more isolated storms late this afternoon, likely along the I-75 corridor. However, rain chances remain very low - only to around 10 percent or so - given that the overall setup is not particularly favorable. A couple tweaks have been made to the forecast this morning, notably adjusting wind speeds and wind gusts upward slightly. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Pockets of IFR/LIFR continue across the interior and around SWFL terminals this morning. This should dissipate within the next couple hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gustier winds are anticipated through the day as the gradient tightens, but overall weather conditions look quiet for the next few days, with little to no aviation impacts anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1034 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure remains in control across the region, with rain-free conditions expected through the weekend. As the pressure gradient tightens, gusty winds are possible at times across coastal waters, but should generally remain below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1225266 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:09 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 958 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 9:50 AM Wednesday...Only minor tweaks were made to the forecast with the mid-morning update. Hi-res guidance continues to show isolated showers developing across southwestern zones early this afternoon in association with a weak coastal trough. PoPs have been increased but kept below mentionable given the overall lack of moisture and feeble forcing. Previous Discussion...As of 635 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight, which will allow clouds to increase and lower through the day. Despite rising low- level thicknesses, the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s (10-15 deg above normal for early April). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Wed...Mix of VFR and MVFR across the terminals early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low- level moistening within the developing easterly flow today, supporting the risk for a prolonged period of sub- VFR cigs this afternoon into tonight. IFR cigs will be possible overnight, though with southerly flow developing will keep at MVFR for now. A few isolated showers will be possible as well, with best chances overnight with advancing warm front. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there is potential for the outer central and southern waters to briefly build to 6 ft overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225265 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 951 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 947 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A rather large surface area of high pressure will continue to build into the region as today progresses. As it does this, the pressure gradient will rapidly tighten across South Florida which will result in strengthening southeasterly wind flow heading into the afternoon hours. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph will be possible especially along the immediate east coast during the afternoon hours. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas and into the lower 90s across interior portions of Southwest Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of patchy fog, some of it dense, may once again develop early this morning across portions of South Florida thanks to very light wind flow and above average low-level moisture. This could result in reduced visibilities in some spots until the early hours of the morning before dissipating as wind flow resumes. More generally speaking, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Florida peninsula today as surface high strengthens over the western Atlantic. This will keep South Florida under fresh to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds, while a fairly dry air mass sets up aloft. As a result, sensible weather will remain warm and dry through the short term period. A few isolated showers could develop along the sea breeze boundaries each day, but chances remain too low to be mentionable (< 15%). Temperatures will continue to rise each day, with highs along the East Coast metro in the mid 80s, and in the low 90s across southwest FL. With lingering moisture mid-week, there will be potential for heat indices reaching the mid-90s across SW Florida, especially on Wednesday. Temperatures overnight will also remain a few degrees above average, with lows tonight in the low 70s across the East Coast, and upper 60s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly rain-free and warm weather conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the week as strong mid-level ridging remains in place over the area. High temperatures each day will reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and could potentially rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Models suggest the high could begin to break down late this weekend into next week as a front approaches, ushering in the next bout of precipitation for the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeast winds will increase after 14z and will range between 15 and 20 kts through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Wind gusts of 25 to 28 kts will be possible across the east coast terminals this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing southeasterly winds today will begin a period of hazardous marine conditions which should last into the upcoming weekend. Current forecast trends suggest that small craft advisory conditions could begin tonight and last for several days. Winds are forecast to be near 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing onshore winds will result in a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coastline through the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 75 85 74 / 0 10 10 0 West Kendall 85 73 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 85 74 85 73 / 0 10 10 0 Homestead 85 75 85 73 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 75 84 74 / 0 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 85 75 85 74 / 0 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 85 74 85 72 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 84 74 84 73 / 10 10 10 0 Naples 88 72 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225264 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Breezy southeast winds with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. The chance for showers and storms returns early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. -Warming trend into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching the lower 90s west of I-95. && .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 As low stratus and patchy fog erodes this morning, temperatures are climbing into the mid and upper 70s. A field of cumulus clouds is already developing, so anticipate a mix of sun and fair weather clouds through the day. Plenty of warming will take place, despite an east coast sea breeze moving inland this afternoon. Inland locations will warm the most, prior to the sea breeze, reaching the upper 80s to low 90s (including the Orlando metro). Coastal sites will reach the mid to upper 80s. This update brings temperatures up a degree or two in spots. Breezy southeast winds gusting 20-25 mph can also be expected, especially closer to the coast. The remainder of the forecast is on track. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula today, and will dominate the local weather pattern. Surface high pressure across the NE US coast will slowly shift southward into the Atlantic waters into this afternoon, continuing to move seaward through tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus are once again possible early this morning across much of east central Florida, especially over areas that received rain yesterday. Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog that does form is forecast to lift by 9 AM. Light winds this morning will become southeast by mid/late morning, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph at times by this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air in the mid-upper levels with PW values ranging from 1.1-1.2". Despite this sufficient low level moisture and an inland moving sea breeze, no mentionable rain chances are forecast through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure off the Northeast US coast on Thursday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Wednesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. A surface high pressure will then build across the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Lingering moisture across east central Florida will support isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon, and northeast on Wednesday. Wind will become breezy (10-15 mph) Wednesday along the coast, otherwise speeds will generally be around 10 mph. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions developing in the Treasure Coast waters and the offshore Brevard waters this afternoon and continuing into tonight as southeast winds increase to 15-20 KT this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in these waters into tonight. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT in the remaining Atlantic waters. Seas 3-4ft today will increase up to 5 ft in the offshore waters tonight. No mentionable rain chances through the period. Thur-Sunday... High pressure will then dominate the local weather pattern through the weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast in the Gulf Stream waters Thursday, becoming generally favorable into the weekend. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tuesday will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT on Thursday before diminishing to around 15 KT on Friday and Saturday. Winds veer Southerly on Sunday and increase to 15-20 KT by the afternoon. Seas 4-5ft on Thursday will subside to 3-4ft on Friday through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Some stratus and patchy fog has developed across portions of the area, especially across the interior, producing IFR/MVFR conditions. Stratus/fog is lifting gradually northward and may impact all inland TAF sites through 13-14Z before it lifts and breaks up with daytime heating and mixing. VFR conditions will then prevail into the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer winds increase tonight, which should limit fog development, but stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs may be possible. MOS guidance not showing much yet, but can`t rule it out and for now put SCT015 in around 06Z for most sites. Southeast winds will increase to around 12-15 knots across the interior with gusts to 20-22 knots. The inland moving east coast sea breeze will increase E/SE winds along the coast even more, around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon. Wind speeds will slowly decrease, but still remain elevated into tonight around 8-13 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 86 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 90 71 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 86 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 86 71 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 90 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 90 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 90 71 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 86 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225263 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 951 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler today with continued dry weather, then an approaching warm front will bring a period of light rain tonight into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across the interior tonight. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday with a stalled front possibly bringing a few showers near the south coast Thursday night into early Friday. Unsettled conditions continue this weekend as a frontal system impacts the region, with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by milder conditions Sunday. Drying out early next week as the frontal system exits the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM Update... No significant changes made to the forecast from now until 6 PM tonight. Only notable change to the forecast this morning was to account for the higher chance of sleet than freezing rain over the higher terrain tonight. Limited travel impacts expected. Highs today still expected to top out close to 40 along the eastern MA coast and upper 40s in the CT Valley. Previous discussion... Key Messages: * Dry and cool with temps several degrees below normal High pressure over eastern Canada shifts east of New Eng this afternoon. The high pres and assocd low level dry air will keep precip assocd with approaching warm front mostly to the west through the day, with just a low risk a few light showers may spill into the Berkshires toward evening. Sunshine will give way to thickening afternoon clouds in developing warm advection pattern. Chilly airmass across SNE as 925 mb temps this afternoon range from near 0C CT valley to -4C across eastern MA. Highs will range from near 40 eastern MA coast to upper 40s CT valley. Some locations along the immediate eastern MA coast may remain in the upper 30s with onshore flow. Normal highs are 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Periods of rain developing tonight into Thu morning * Pockets of mixed wintry precip tonight across the interior with spotty freezing rain possible over the higher elevations. Any travel impacts will be limited * Milder Thu with rain becoming more spotty in the afternoon Approaching warm front with good moisture advection aided by modest low level jet will result in periods of light precip developing tonight into Thu morning as PWATs increase to over 1.25". Axis of the 850 mb jet will be to the north where best forcing for ascent and heaviest precip will be. However, enough forcing combined with deep moisture through the column for precip tonight, with steadiest across northern MA closest to best forcing, with more rain more scattered near the south coast. Ptype in the coastal plain will be all rain, but there will be some ptype issues in the interior as the precip moves in tonight. Soundings show a pronounced warm nose 800-700 mb with low level cold air below supportive of pockets of sleet, and spotty freezing rain possible over northern MA higher elevations where temps will wet bulb down to 32F for a time. Given warm ground and marginal temps, any travel impacts will be limited and impacting a small area so no advisories. Temps will rise above freezing before daybreak across higher terrain so not expecting any impacts for the morning commute. Periods of rain will linger into Thu morning, then should become more spotty in the afternoon as the warm front lifts to the north. Increasing SW flow will bring milder air with highs reaching the 60s away from the south coast, with 50s along the south coast. 925 mb temps are quite mild reaching 14-16C by late in the day, but low level inversion will limit mixing. However, if some breaks of sun can develop in the afternoon, temps could reach 70+ in portions of the CT valley but confidence is low. Low level jet will result in gusty SW winds developing. The low level inversion will prevent the stronger winds from mixing down but the potential exists for a few 30-40 mph gusts, especially inland from the immediate south coast where milder temps will help to erode the inversion. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long Term Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day on Friday * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing warmth and shower chances Saturday night into Sunday * Trending cooler again early next week Thursday night and Friday A dry cold front pushes through the region Thursday night into Friday bringing abnormally high 925 hPa temps near 15C down to values closer to normal for early April in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. This front will be accompanied by a dry northwest flow that will support efficient mixing on Friday afternoon. As a result we can expect a pleasant/sunny early spring afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s across southern New England. Expect the warmest temperatures in east/southeast MA where downsloping on northwest flow may support temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A 70 degree observation can`t be ruled out with ensemble probabilities suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of temperatures greater than 69 degrees on Friday afternoon. The warmth will be accompanied by a northwest breeze with some gusts of 20 mph possible across the region. Saturday through Sunday night. The warmth from Friday quickly cools down on Saturday as high pressure is forecast to build north and east of southern New England. This will allow a backdoor cold front to advect cooler air back into the region with 925 hPa temps dipping near the freezing mark by Saturday morning. This will support a cool/raw day with highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s for much of southern New England. Saturday will as mark the beginning of a wet/unsettled period. As the aforementioned area of high pressure continues to shift east, return flow from the south will support WAA driven showers over southern New England likely beginning Saturday afternoon. Expect precipitation to persist through Sunday as the associated low-pressure system traverses over The Northeast Saturday night through Sunday evening. As warm sector air lifts over the region on Sunday, 925 hPa temps rise dramatically to the 15 to 20C range. So while Sunday is expected to be wet/rainy, it will also be on the warm/humid side with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Ensemble mean precipitation forecasts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night are ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch across southern New England. Some of this precip may come in the form of convective showers Sunday night as the associated cold front drives the warm sector air out of the region. Model derived CAPE values are unimpressive at this time, but with ensemble mean SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg, a few showers could have a rumble of thunder, particularly along the south coast. Monday and Tuesday Trending drier and more seasonable on Monday as a cold front ushers a drier air mass over the southern New England. Ensemble mean high temperatures on Monday afternoon currently ranging from the mid to upper 50s across southern New England which is close to normal for this time of year. Model spread increases on Tuesday with the ECMWF/CMC models supporting a somewhat strong CAA pattern that would feature high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s on Tuesday. The GFS is less aggressive with cooler air and keeps high temps in the mid to upper 40s next Tuesday. Stay tuned for further details... && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today...High Confidence. VFR. NE wind 5-15 kt becoming SE-S in the afternoon. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but risk for -PL across the interior with pockets of -FZRA higher elevations. Thursday...Moderate Confidence Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing. BOS TAF...High confidence. BDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. Winds below SCA. N-NE wind will become SE this afternoon. Hazardous seas over the outer waters will subside below 5 ft this afternoon. Tonight and Thursday...High confidence. Increasing southerly winds late tonight becoming SW Thursday. Modest low level jet over the waters but strong low level inversion will prevent stronger winds from mixing down. Expect gusts to 30 kt Thu. SCA will be needed. Spotty light rain tonight into Thu. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. && $$ |
| #1225262 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:27 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 922 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 916 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Inland dense fog continues to slowly lift and dissipate across SE GA, while high dew points continue to stream across the cooler nearshore coastal waters with sea fog continuing along the Atlantic Coast and Dense fog advisories continue for the local waters, while an SPS has been posted for the coastal counties. Otherwise, near record warmth continues with highs in the lower 90s inland and 80s along the Atlantic Coast with heat index values into the mid/upper 90s this afternoon. Breezy Southeast winds expected to develop today with sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts into the 25-30 mph range at times. The East coast sea breeze will push inland and there is still potential for isolated storms from the US 301 corridor into inland areas for a few strong storms, mainly across inland SE GA with gusty winds and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low level moisture is expected to result in low stratus and fog this morning. Have issued a dense fog advisory for areas most likely to experience low visibilities based on latest guidance and current satellite and observations. This area may need to be expanded. Morning fog and stratus will lift after sunrise this morning. Surface high pressure will be located to the northeast through Tonight. This pattern will result in a prevailing flow from the southeast. A combination of a weak upper wave, and diurnal instability will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon inland. The thunderstorms which do develop will move further inland through the afternoon with the flow. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will range from east to west Today, with highs in the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast, to the lower 90s inland. Convection will dissipate this evening, with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be common Tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 HOT and dry with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland each day. An unseasonably strong 500 mb ridge center dominates just east of the FL Atlantic coast with the low level ridge axis extending from a center near Bermuda to across the local forecast area. Strong subsidence will bring dry weather, with a prevailing east coast sea breeze regime keeping coastal locations `cooler` with highs in the mid 80s. Gusty ESE winds of 20-30 mph will impact locations locations inland toward the St. Johns River basin each afternoon trailing the east coast sea breeze. Mild overnight low temperatures will range in the 60s with patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The heat continues this weekend with strong subsidence in place. The region of hottest daytime highs shifts gradually west to east from Saturday into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs continuing Sat & Sun. Gusty WSW winds develop Sunday as the next frontal system approaches from the west with consensus guidance still showing a low (< 30%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. Drier air filters across SE GA into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage with a few linger mainly coastal showers possible for NE FL as breezy NNE flow develops into mid-week. A cool down next week trailing the frontal passage with temperatures falling near and below climo values for early April with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue and lows ranging in the 40s to 50s. At this time, forecast guidance keeps low temperatures above frost potential. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low stratus and fog will gradually lift this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by noon, with VFR conditions then through the afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible inland this afternoon, but this activity is not expected to affect local TAF sites at this time. The thunderstorms will be closest to KGNV. Patchy fog will develop overnight Tonight, which could lead to reduced visibilities toward dawn Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure will be northeast of the region Today and Thursday. A few morning thunderstorms will be possible over the waters, along with potential for fog closer to the coast. The high will become centered more toward the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move away to the east Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front is forecast to move through Sunday night and Monday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: High Risk For Rip Currents Through Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High inland dispersion today and Thursday for inland locations including the Okefenokee NWR, Osceola NF and Ocala NF with above normal high temperatures near 90 degrees and elevated SE transport winds. A dominant east coast sea breeze is expected each day with mostly dry conditions. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph trailing the sea breeze with gusts up to 30 mph possible, mainly for locations near and east of the I-95 corridor and near St. Johns River basin. Minimum relative humidity will remain above critical values. Inland fog is possible the next couple of nights. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 66 90 66 / 40 20 0 0 SSI 78 68 78 68 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 89 68 88 66 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 85 69 85 67 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 92 67 91 65 / 20 10 10 0 OCF 93 68 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450-452- 454. && $$ |
| #1225261 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:42 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 841 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow continues today with high pressure offshore. The lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm front tonight with much above normal warmth arriving for Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying another cold front. && .UPDATE... Main updates were to adjust sky cover to align with current obs and expected trends as well as introduce slight chance PoPs mainly in the Pee Dee region. In this region, weak to moderate instability should manage to develop this afternoon after clouds break up this morning, leading to the chance for isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. Otherwise, light showers may grace the coastal areas through today as southeasterly flow takes over, but any measurable rain should be very isolated. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north will continue to bring onshore flow today into tonight. The result will be partly to mostly cloudy skies and it isn`t impossible that there could be a few light showers around. Highs today will reach mid to upper 70s with cooler numbers nearer the ocean. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure to the east and upper level ridging off of the southeastern Atlantic coast will serve as the catalyst for a humid, late-week warmup. Highs on Thursday will be well above normal, many areas will likely climb into the mid 80s. A sea breeze near the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Breezy behind a strong afternoon sea breeze. Southerly winds overnight will keep dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warmer on Friday and Saturday as the ridge strengthens. Inland areas have a shot at seeing their first 90 degree high of the year on Friday and each day after. This would be nearly a month before the average first 90 degree day of May 2nd for FLO/LBT. The best chance of seeing 90 degrees will be on Sunday as warm air advection increases ahead of the next cold front. Cooler on the coast as a strong sea breeze develops, keeping coastal temperatures in the mid and upper 70s to around 80. Humid each day with dew points solidly in the 60s. A cold front approaches the area late Sunday into Monday. This initial front will bring a chance of showers late Sunday. Some weak instability inland could produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. The shortwave accompanying the cold front will weaken as it lifts northward late Sunday into Monday. A secondary shortwave will approach the area on Monday. Lift will be stronger and more pronounced with the second wave and this should be the best chance of showers. Cooler air will follow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Onshore flow is resulting in the development of clouds in the 500 to 1500 ft range early this morning, though terminals are all aoa 1 kft attm. Overall expect to see general improvement as the day progresses though inland terminals may not lose cigs. Do expect at least mvfr cigs to redevelop overnight tonight, especially inland. E wind 5 to 10 kt will become more se today and se to s overnight. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR through the period. && .MARINE... Through tonight... E winds to 10 to 15 KT will become SE and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT. Thursday through Sunday... High pressure will maintain southerly winds between 10-15 knots through the weekend. The pressure gradient will increase late this weekend ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday, and building seas to 6 feet could become more widespread as a prolonged fetch southerly winds builds the wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225260 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 642 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A warm day expected today as heights continue to increase with the H5 ridge building across the western Atlantic. This will place our region in an active southwest flow, however, rain chances stay to our north and west through the short term. A cold front tries to move toward our region on Thursday, but stalls out under this flow upstream. At the surface, pressure gradient will remain fairly tight between a strong high pressure off the east coast and low pressure over the high plains. This is also causing a long fetch across the Gulf, which will not only have marine impacts (see marine section), but also pile water along the coast leading to coastal flooding. This package it was decided to place the southeast facing shore/beaches in a Coastal Flood Warning during high tide as guidance is right around that threshold and these areas are pretty vulnerable to high water. Elsewhere, all coastal zones apart from the southshore have been issued an advisory. Coastal Flood Watches continue beyond today into Thursday and will be evaluated again for possible upgrades to an advisory or warning in subsequent updates. The wind advisory for landbased zones remains in effect again as the strong pressure gradient remains locked across the entire CWFA. If we happen to get some breaks, some stronger winds may mix down in gusts up to 40 mph or so. Otherwise, along the immediate coast, fog/low stratus will be possible through mid morning or so. Visibilities aren`t that of needing a landbased dense fog advisory yet, but we will continue to monitor that potential through sunrise, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. And again, well above average through the short term with near record highs currently in the forecast. The warmest locations will be inland where some may approach 90F. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A fairly robust 593 H5 ridge will continue to reside off the east coast going into the start of the long term. This feature again will continue the overall southwesterly flow aloft over our region and also provide us with a continuation of above average temperatures going into the last bit of the workweek. However, the large scale trough across the western tier states will finally start to break this feature down. The stubborn frontal boundary that stalled from TX to the Ohio Valley will finally start to move toward our region this weekend. Globals are still in good agreement with the timing of this feature. That said, there will be at least some severe potential late Saturday and into Sunday morning, although timing looks to be a limitation at this juncture. That said, we will still continue to monitor as shear and at least modest instability will be present with the better parameters and better forcing residing just to our north. Ahead of the front the southerly fetch will continue right up until the front passes. This will likely continue the need for coastal flood products with multiple days of water piling up along the coast and into the tidal lakes. Behind the front, strong CAA takes shape, which should drop our temperatures by about 20 degrees in terms of afternoon MaxTs. That said, there are some slight differences in the Globals in terms of the frontal evolution after it passes. ECM wants to slow things down a bit, which could keep some lingering showers around, but the GFS is more progressive sending the front well east of our area. Implications of course here would be POPs to start the new workweek. Over the last couple of runs the ECM has sped up a bit, but still largely lacks the progressiveness in the GFS solution. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Gusty winds and CIG reductions will be the rule through this cycle. Starting off mostly IFR/MVFR across the region this morning. Some improvement may take shape during the day with perhaps MVFR or VFR at times. Fast forward to tonight, CIGs will drop once again back to IFR/MVFR. Southeasterly winds will continue and perhaps increase during the day today. Some gusts up to 35kts cannot be ruled out from time to time, but the higher gusts will likely be confined to the daytime. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Hazardous marine conditions have developed with small craft advisories in effect for all local waters. In addition, marine fog has developed right along the coast as rich low level moisture advects over cooler waters. Going into late week, moderate winds and seas at least expected with a likely long standing SCA for most if not all the local waters. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday, which will again strengthen the low level flow out ahead of this feature. It is quite possible we will need small craft advisories into early next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 70 87 71 / 10 0 10 10 BTR 87 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 86 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 80 71 81 71 / 10 0 10 0 PQL 82 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-066>069-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-536- 538-550-552-555-557. MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ087-088. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ536-538- 550-552-555-557. && $$ |
| #1225259 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 647 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday - Heat index values between 102-107 degrees Thursday across the Coastal Plains As the current low-level jet moves eastward this morning into the Gulf waters, the strongest winds will be confined to the Coastal Bend. Another low level jet is expected to redevelop tonight promoting gusty winds once again across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. Well above normal temperatures will continue today and Thursday with daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal. A dryline is still expected to move into the Brush Country today providing drier air which will help keep heat index values in check across the Brush Country. Heat index values today will range from the mid to upper 90s across the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads while the Coastal Plains sits a bit warmer between 100-105 degrees. Heat index values will be a bit higher Thursday with most of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads in the upper 90s while the Coastal Plains ranges from 102-107 degrees. Not much relief from the heat is expected tonight as overnight lows only drop into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 As we conclude the work week, we can expect hot and humid temperatures to last just a touch longer ahead of our next cold front Saturday. We can expect highs to be in the 80s and 90s across much of the region with 100s out in the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains Friday. Saturdays cold front will bring temperatures back down to more seasonal temperatures as we head into next week. Highs will return to the 70s and 80s with lows back down in the 40s and 50s through midweek. Model guidance continues to keep precip chances confined to the Victoria Crossroads and the waters as the front sweeps through the region. Temperatures will gradually warm as we progress through the week likely returning to above normal as onshore flow returns to region late next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR conditions are ongoing at CRP/VCT sites, with a TEMPO MVFR at ALI for ceilings through daybreak. Conditions will improve by mid to late morning with a return to VFR by early afternoon. Across the western sites, VFR conditions will persist. Another round of MVFR conditions is forecast for tonight past 03-06Z. Aside from that, expect the winds to remain elevated through the day across the east, and generally light and variable out west as a dryline approaches the area. Gusts to 30 knots remain in the forecast today mainly for CRP/VCT terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong (BF-6) southerly flow will continue this morning before relaxing to fresh levels (BF-5) this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. While winds will periodically drop below 20 knots, seas will remain elevated through Thursday which has led to an extension to the Small Craft Advisory. With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-10 ft waves, and 5-7 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be more fresh, with waves dropping to 4-5 ft in the nearshore waters, and down to 5-7 ft in the offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 While relative humidity values will drop to as low as 20-35% across the Brush Country today and 20-40% Thursday, winds will remain relatively weak under 15-20 mph which when combined with Energy Release Component values in the bottom 50th percentile will negate elevated fire weather conditions. Energy Release Components can be expected to generally top out in the 30th to 50th percentile class through the upcoming week. With the presence of daily dry line passages, over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, relative humidity values can be expected the upper teens to 30% range. 20 ft winds aloft are expected to generally remain under 20 kts, though with relative humidity values remaining so low the fire risk will be limited through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 89 73 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 72 84 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 72 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225258 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:48 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 730 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of patchy fog, some of it dense, may once again develop early this morning across portions of South Florida thanks to very light wind flow and above average low-level moisture. This could result in reduced visibilities in some spots until the early hours of the morning before dissipating as wind flow resumes. More generally speaking, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Florida peninsula today as surface high strengthens over the western Atlantic. This will keep South Florida under fresh to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds, while a fairly dry air mass sets up aloft. As a result, sensible weather will remain warm and dry through the short term period. A few isolated showers could develop along the sea breeze boundaries each day, but chances remain too low to be mentionable (< 15%). Temperatures will continue to rise each day, with highs along the East Coast metro in the mid 80s, and in the low 90s across southwest FL. With lingering moisture mid-week, there will be potential for heat indices reaching the mid-90s across SW Florida, especially on Wednesday. Temperatures overnight will also remain a few degrees above average, with lows tonight in the low 70s across the East Coast, and upper 60s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly rain-free and warm weather conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the week as strong mid-level ridging remains in place over the area. High temperatures each day will reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and could potentially rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Models suggest the high could begin to break down late this weekend into next week as a front approaches, ushering in the next bout of precipitation for the area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 728 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Southeast winds will increase after 14z and will range between 15 and 20 kts through the afternoon and into the evening hours. Wind gusts of 25 to 28 kts will be possible across the east coast terminals this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing southeasterly winds today will begin a period of hazardous marine conditions which should last into the upcoming weekend. Current forecast trends suggest that small craft advisory conditions could begin tonight and last for several days. Winds are forecast to be near 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing onshore winds will result in a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coastline through the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 75 85 74 / 0 10 0 0 West Kendall 85 73 85 71 / 0 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 85 74 85 73 / 0 10 0 0 Homestead 85 75 85 73 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 84 75 84 74 / 0 10 0 0 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 85 74 / 0 10 0 0 Pembroke Pines 85 75 85 74 / 0 10 0 0 West Palm Beach 85 74 85 72 / 0 10 10 0 Boca Raton 84 74 84 73 / 0 10 10 0 Naples 88 72 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225257 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 735 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 734 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Pockets of IFR/LIFR continue across the interior and around SWFL terminals this morning. This should dissipate within the next couple hours, with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gustier winds are anticipated through the day as the gradient tightens, but overall weather conditions look quiet for the next few days, with little to no aviation impacts anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of dense fog will be possible over the northern waters mainly along the Levy/Citrus counties coastlines through mid morning. The fog is expected to lift as winds increase from the southeast today, but the winds are expected to remain below cautionary levels. Can`t rule out an evening easterly surge around sunset which could create brief winds to cautionary levels, mainly on the near shore waters which could last for several hours before weakening after midnight. High pressure will hold over the waters into the weekend with continued southeast winds each day...again remaining below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1225256 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: 1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in our northern counties today and tomorrow. An isolated stronger thunderstorm capable of hail and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. 2) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times. The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon, allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the cap would need to be much weaker. Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing. Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only expected to drop into the low/mid 70s. Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping (though still show no shortage of capping). SPC is indicating a slightly higher risk of isolated severe thunderstorms tomorrow. However, recent guidance has backed off on QPF / precip. So it may be worth looking at SPC`s afternoon update for potential changes to the outlook. Self && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: - Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north of I-10. - Flooding potential increases this weekend. - A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week, following the front. Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions, and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential. The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong 40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday as it may impact the potential for Saturday. We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 616 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Generally MVFR cigs are expected through the TAF period, though we may see periods of VFR cigs this afternoon. One of the primary weather hazards of concern today will be the gusty southerly winds. Sustained winds are expected to average 15 to 20 knots. However, periods of higher winds with gusts over 30 knots are likely, especially from the Houston area points south to the coast later this morning and afternoon. Any improvement in cigs this afternoon is expected to be short-lived, with cigs likely falling this evening and tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front. In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 72 88 73 / 30 0 30 20 Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227- 235>238-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225255 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 725 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will be lifting northwards across the region today. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning: Widespread stratus and areas of fog, much of which will be dense as we start the day. Based on observations, trends, and most of the guidance, we have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for all but the Charleston Tri-County region. Those locations have a little more wind off the surface, and a less pronounced inversion than elsewhere. The Dense Fog Advisory goes through 9 AM, and all fog should have dissipated by 10 AM when the inversion breaks. For today: Moisture convergence and a modest amount of instability off the coast will generate isolated showers and t-storms. While we can`t rule out some of that activity making it onshore, the better probabilities remain over the Atlantic. We`ve updated the forecast to include a few showers brushing onshore at times this morning. Meanwhile, the large scale pattern features a strengthening 500 hPa ridge centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda, allowing us to have a southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a warm front will lift of the area this afternoon, with strong high pressure to expand in from the northeast and east thereafter. This will allow for a fairly decent sea breeze to form during midday as it progresses inland. By late afternoon, with the sea breeze inland from I-95, it will encounter a fairly decent environment for isolated to perhaps showers and t-storms. MUCAPE is expected to be as great as 1500-2500 J/kg, overlapped by a region where there is a 30-50% probability of max 2-5 km updraft strength of greater than 20 m/sec. We have 20-30% PoPs as a result. We have also included a slight chance of showers and t-storms along he northward moving warm front this afternoon over parts of the South Carolina coastal counties. Although insolation is cut down by the morning fog/stratus, 850 hPa temps reach 15-17C this afternoon. This supports highs in the lower and middle 80s for most communities. With a southeasterly sea breeze around 15 mph, coastal sections will be cooler and in the 70s. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts exp[anding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, no mention is required as of this time. Those winds will prevent full decoupling over most of the region, and that along with a south- southeast low level flow will limit minimum temps to just the middle 60s, or around 15F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm/hot temperatures are the main story for the short term. Upper level ridging strengthens on Thursday and again on Friday, and with situational awareness tables (ESATs) showing record high 500 hPa geopotential heights occurring in relation to 30-year normals, warm/hot temperatures are expected. ESATs also show temperatures at 850 hPa over the 90th percentile of climatology are expected, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to upper 80s for inland areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Friday is looking to be a degree or two warmer given the continued strengthening of the upper level ridge, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for inland areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. The good news? These temperatures will be brought down to the surface by mixy winds, so expect at least a slight breeze to help cool-down. Can`t rule out some 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, as NBM probabilities show 20-30% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 50-70% range for inland GA counties. Probabilities increase on Friday, with NBM probabilities show 30-50% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 60-80% range for inland GA counties. The additional good news is the afternoon sea-breeze will be coming ashore in the mid/late afternoon hours, which will help cool the region back down again. Saturday will begin to see the weakening/shifting of the upper level ridge axis, but given the lack of a fresh airmass expect a near carbon copy of Friday for Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday fall into the mid to upper 60s. Record high daily maximums may occur on Saturday, though the current forecast falls about 2 degrees shy at the Charleston airport. Record high daily minimums look much more likely, with the current forecast within 2-3 degrees Thursday-Sunday, but is going to be largely dependent on the strength of the afternoon sea-breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level wave moves out of the Ontario providence Sunday into Monday, but before that reaches the area another day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected. Relief is in sight as the strong aforementioned wave is accompanied by a surface high pressure moving into the central plains, which will help send a cold front towards the region sometime Sunday/Monday. Scattered showers are expected prior to the frontal passage, with the NBM bringing chances (20-30%) for scattered showers starting late Sunday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the front pushes. NBM does seem to hang onto the chances for rainfall for too long, but looking at the ensembles this largely due to the timing different amongst the models. Current forecasted highs on Monday are in the lower/mid 70s, falling into the upper 60s lower 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: An area of stratus and light fog is heading toward the terminals from the north this morning, and will result in at least MVFR ceilings, potentially IFR/LIFR (especially at KCHS). By late morning ceilings will lift, and VFR looks to return for the rest of the day. However, a few showers could brush nearby late this morning/early afternoon as a warm front approaches, and there is even a risk of a TSRA mid to late afternoon as the warm front passes through. The coverage of any such convection is too small to include in the TAFs at this time. Gusty SE to S winds peaking around 17-22 kt will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon, before diminishing with sunset. Low ceilings are likely again later tonight, and flight restrictions will likely occur. KSAV: LIFR ceilings are still at the airfield early on, but as a warm front lifts through and the strong inversion weakens, a return to MVFR and eventually VFR takes place by 16Z. VFR will then prevail through the afternoon and early tonight, before flight restrictions occur again later tonight. With the passage of the warm front there could be a few showers brushing nearby. Gusty SE winds will peak close to 20 kt this afternoon with the passage of the sea breeze, before the gusts drop off by sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions may be possible Thursday morning due to both sea and land fog, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible. After that, generally quiet aviation conditions are expected through Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the NE and E the rest of the day. The local gradient will tighten somewhat, and that along with the sea breeze will result in winds veering to the SE as high as 10-15 or 15 kt. Charleston Harbor will experience some gusts around 20 kt this afternoon due to deeper mixing due to the nearby warmer land mass. Seas will be a mix of wind driven waves and swells, climbing to 2-4 feet. The coverage of the fog has diminished since earlier due to nearby showers, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. We still maintain patchy fog through the morning hours, but with the formation of the sea breeze, edifier is left by then will have dissipated. Tonight: High pressure will control the weather across the area, and with increasing low level winds, surface winds will also respond. SE winds will climb up to another 5 kt or so, except holding at similar speeds with less gustiness in Charleston Harbor. Seas build up to another foot given the higher winds. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches today. Thursday: Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday, with near-shore winds remaining out of the south-southeast at around 10- 12 knots, bringing waves of 3-4 feet into the beach zones every 8-10 seconds. Thursday - Saturday: Surface high pressure off to our east, with generally quiet marine conditions forecasted into the weekend, with winds around 10 knots and seas averaging 3 to 4 ft in the near-shore waters, fairly consistently near 4 feet in the offshore Georgia zone Sunday: The surface pressure gradient begins to rise overnight into Sunday, remaining elevated throughout the day. Currently have winds remaining below small craft criteria, but something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ040-042- 043-047>049-051. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225254 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 626 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A large upper trof over the western and central states moves little through Friday, then finally progresses slowly into the eastern CONUS through Tuesday. A surface low lifts from the Plains to across the Great Lakes and gradually brings a frontal boundary towards the region that extends from Tennessee to eastern Texas by Thursday before stalling. A surface ridge meanwhile remains in place over the southeastern states, and this pattern tightens the pressure gradient sufficiently to result in breezy conditions for much of the area today. Have opted to issue a Wind Advisory from 10 am to 7 pm roughly along and west of I-65 for wind gusts up to 40 mph. In addition, it appears that minor coastal flooding is possible mainly along the Mobile Bay Causeway, and have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 am until 6 pm for this concern. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties until 9 am this morning, by which time any lingering fog should have dissipated as the southerly flow increases. Will need to also monitor for additional fog development near the coast tonight. Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area through Thursday, then small pops follow for portions of southeast Mississippi on Friday as a series of modest shortwaves move across the region. As the large upper trof begins to advances towards the eastern states, another surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains and bring a cold front through the forecast area mainly during the day on Sunday. It appears that a shortwave trof (or series of shortwaves) embedded in the large upper trof pattern will move across the forecast region Saturday into Sunday morning which could aid/result in a line of convection moving through the area either ahead of or along the approaching cold front. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for the western third of the area on Saturday with slight chance to likely pops following for Saturday night, with the highest pops over portions of southeast Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are expected for Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg are indicated over the western half of the area on Saturday which then spread over the remainder of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. A 40 knot 850 mb jet develops on Saturday and may strengthen a bit more Saturday night before tapering off on Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor this time period for a strong to severe storm risk. SPC has included a portion of the area west of I-65 in a 15% severe storm risk for Saturday into Saturday night, with the central and eastern portions of the area in a 15% risk for Sunday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 LIFR/VLIFR conditions over the coastal counties improve to MVFR this morning, then IFR conditions develop this evening with thick fog possible overnight. Further inland, IFR to MVFR conditions improve to VFR this morning, then IFR/MVFR conditions with patchy fog develop tonight. Southeasterly winds increase to 15-20 knots this morning then diminish to 5-10 knots tonight. Gusts to 30-40 knots are possible today. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Alabama Gulf waters until 1 pm Thursday, and is also in effect for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 3 pm this afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution over much of the remainder of the area. Dense fog is expected over bays and near shore waters until mid morning, and will need to monitor for additional fog development tonight. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 70 82 69 81 69 82 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 Pensacola 77 70 77 70 78 70 78 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 77 68 78 69 78 70 78 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 87 65 86 66 86 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 87 69 87 68 86 68 86 65 / 10 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 Camden 87 67 85 68 87 66 87 66 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 85 65 83 65 84 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>055-261>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263-264. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225253 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 720 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Patchy fog and low stratus may develop early this morning, across much of east central Florida. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog to develops will lift by 9 AM. -Breezy southeast winds developing today with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms return early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. -Warming trend into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula today, and will dominate the local weather pattern. Surface high pressure across the NE US coast will slowly shift southward into the Atlantic waters into this afternoon, continuing to move seaward through tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus are once again possible early this morning across much of east central Florida, especially over areas that received rain yesterday. Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog that does form is forecast to lift by 9 AM. Light winds this morning will become southeast by mid/late morning, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph at times by this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air in the mid-upper levels with PW values ranging from 1.1-1.2". Despite this sufficient low level moisture and an inland moving sea breeze, no mentionable rain chances are forecast through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure off the Northeast US coast on Thursday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Wednesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. A surface high pressure will then build across the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Lingering moisture across east central Florida will support isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon, and northeast on Wednesday. Wind will become breezy (10-15 mph) Wednesday along the coast, otherwise speeds will generally be around 10 mph. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions developing in the Treasure Coast waters and the offshore Brevard waters this afternoon and continuing into tonight as southeast winds increase to 15-20 KT this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in these waters into tonight. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT in the remaining Atlantic waters. Seas 3-4ft today will increase up to 5 ft in the offshore waters tonight. No mentionable rain chances through the period. Thur-Sunday... High pressure will then dominate the local weather pattern through the weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast in the Gulf Stream waters Thursday, becoming generally favorable into the weekend. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tuesday will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT on Thursday before diminishing to around 15 KT on Friday and Saturday. Winds veer Southerly on Sunday and increase to 15-20 KT by the afternoon. Seas 4-5ft on Thursday will subside to 3-4ft on Friday through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 720 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Some stratus and patchy fog has developed across portions of the area, especially across the interior, producing IFR/MVFR conditions. Stratus/fog is lifting gradually northward and may impact all inland TAF sites through 13-14Z before it lifts and breaks up with daytime heating and mixing. VFR conditions will then prevail into the afternoon and evening hours. Boundary layer winds increase tonight, which should limit fog development, but stratus producing IFR/MVFR cigs may be possible. MOS guidance not showing much yet, but can`t rule it out and for now put SCT015 in around 06Z for most sites. Southeast winds will increase to around 12-15 knots across the interior with gusts to 20-22 knots. The inland moving east coast sea breeze will increase E/SE winds along the coast even more, around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon. Wind speeds will slowly decrease, but still remain elevated into tonight around 8-13 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 89 71 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 71 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 90 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 89 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225252 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected today through Thursday across Deep South Texas. A 500mb trough continues to deepen into the Desert SW with a series of surface low pressure systems swinging through the Southern Plains, this will maintain dry conditions locally with an enhanced pressure gradient, setting up strong LLJs along the lower Texas coast, with 45 to 55 kts at 850mb. DESI probabilities nudge above 70 percent for wind gusts over 40 mph through this morning across the lower valley and lower Texas coast, less than 30 percent for wind gusts over 45 mph, with sustained winds likely falling below 30 mph. Still, a brief Wind Advisory may be needed from 9 or 10 AM through 1 or 2 PM across Cameron County if stronger winds do mix down to the surface after sunrise. For winds, ran with a blend of NBM75 and NBM90 for inland areas today through Thursday, hand editing across Cameron County where necessary. Winds should remain breezy overnight and increase once again into Thursday afternoon, with gusts to 35 mph. Highs range from the low to mid 90s east into the low 100s west today, only dropping a couple of degrees on Thursday, mainly east. If winds turn more SSW this morning into this afternoon, temperatures will rise quickly across the lower valley due to downsloping and mid to upper 90s may be achievable. There is a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast until further notice. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected to take place Thursday night through Friday; widespread moderate Heat Risk is expected on Friday with heat indices between 100-105F degrees. * A cold front passes through on Saturday; isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along with gusty winds out of the northeast. * Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool temperatures are expected beginning Saturday night into Sunday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, before improving early next week. A changeable weather pattern is expected to take shape during the extended. A sfc cold front will be the main driver in this changeable pattern. Ahead of the cold frontal passage on Saturday, unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will take place across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool conditions will occur. We start off the long-term period Thursday night where a mid-upper trough will be situated over the Southwestern U.S. As this feature gradually shifts eastward, it will drive a sfc cold front southeastward into Texas and towards Deep South Texas over the weekend and into next week. Before the cold front arrives however,southwesterly winds aloft and southeasterly winds at the sfc will result in persistent moist and warm air advection (WAA). Furthermore, an enhanced sfc pressure gradient and strong 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) winds sampled between 45-50 kts will translate to moderately strong south-southeast winds that may warrant the issuance of a Wind Advisory Thursday night into Friday. Given the situation, unseasonably warm temperatures with elevated humidity values will continue Friday into Saturday. Daytime high temperatures on Friday are progged to climb into the 90s across much of Deep South Texas (80s near/along the coast and triple digit heat far northwest across northwestern Zapata County). With dewpoint temps in the 70s, a moderate Heat Risk will be present for much of the region on Friday with heat indices ranging between 100-105F degrees. During the day on Saturday, the aforementioned mid-upper low over the Southwestern U.S. will continue to translate eastward and will help to drive a cold front south- southeastward through Deep South Texas. Just before the cold front arrives, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s (slightly cooler than Friday). While the cold front is expected to be mainly dry due to limited instability and moisture, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. Behind the cold fropa, cooler and drier than normal conditions are expected. Sunday and Monday will be amongst the coolest days of the week with high temperatures in the 70s across the region. Overnight lows are also expected to be near normal levels, but maybe slightly cooler than normal. Overnight lows are expected to climb into the Saturday night and Sunday night are expected to be in the 50s across much of the area. Monday night is expected to be the coolest night of the period with overnight lows in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and the low to mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures look to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s returning. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through this evening before MVFR ceilings return overnight. Southeasterly winds will remain breezy to windy through most of the TAF period, with the strongest gusts associated with a 50 to 55 kt low level jet this morning into early this afternoon from west to east. Have continued wind shear in TAFs to help highlight the threat, even though there is already better mixing occurring and surface wind gusts could reach 34 kts or slightly higher. Wind Advisories and AWWs may be needed late this morning into this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Now through Thursday....An enhanced pressure gradient due to low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will maintain elevated winds across all coastal waters, driving elevated seas and adverse marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories have been extended and will likely continue until further notice. Thursday night through Wednesday....Strong south-southeast winds ahead of the cold front will result in adverse to hazardous marine conditions Thursday night through Friday. Following the cold frontal passage on Saturday, strong northerly winds are expected to develop leading to continued adverse to hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions due to these strong winds and elevated seas will persist from Thursday night through the weekend. By Monday, these winds are expected to subside giving way to moderate seas. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, favorable marine conditions are finally expected with low to moderate seas and winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 75 90 76 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 93 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 100 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 82 75 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 90 74 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225250 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 653 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler today with continued dry weather, then an approaching warm front will bring a period of light rain tonight into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across the interior tonight. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday with a stalled front possibly bringing a few showers near the south coast Thursday night into early Friday. Unsettled conditions continue this weekend as a frontal system impacts the region, with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by milder conditions Sunday. Drying out early next week as the frontal system exits the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Dry and cool with temps several degrees below normal High pressure over eastern Canada shifts east of New Eng this afternoon. The high pres and assocd low level dry air will keep precip assocd with approaching warm front mostly to the west through the day, with just a low risk a few light showers may spill into the Berkshires toward evening. Sunshine will give way to thickening afternoon clouds in developing warm advection pattern. Chilly airmass across SNE as 925 mb temps this afternoon range from near 0C CT valley to -4C across eastern MA. Highs will range from near 40 eastern MA coast to upper 40s CT valley. Some locations along the immediate eastern MA coast may remain in the upper 30s with onshore flow. Normal highs are 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Periods of rain developing tonight into Thu morning * Pockets of mixed wintry precip tonight across the interior with spotty freezing rain possible over the higher elevations. Any travel impacts will be limited * Milder Thu with rain becoming more spotty in the afternoon Approaching warm front with good moisture advection aided by modest low level jet will result in periods of light precip developing tonight into Thu morning as PWATs increase to over 1.25". Axis of the 850 mb jet will be to the north where best forcing for ascent and heaviest precip will be. However, enough forcing combined with deep moisture through the column for precip tonight, with steadiest across northern MA closest to best forcing, with more rain more scattered near the south coast. Ptype in the coastal plain will be all rain, but there will be some ptype issues in the interior as the precip moves in tonight. Soundings show a pronounced warm nose 800-700 mb with low level cold air below supportive of pockets of sleet, and spotty freezing rain possible over northern MA higher elevations where temps will wet bulb down to 32F for a time. Given warm ground and marginal temps, any travel impacts will be limited and impacting a small area so no advisories. Temps will rise above freezing before daybreak across higher terrain so not expecting any impacts for the morning commute. Periods of rain will linger into Thu morning, then should become more spotty in the afternoon as the warm front lifts to the north. Increasing SW flow will bring milder air with highs reaching the 60s away from the south coast, with 50s along the south coast. 925 mb temps are quite mild reaching 14-16C by late in the day, but low level inversion will limit mixing. However, if some breaks of sun can develop in the afternoon, temps could reach 70+ in portions of the CT valley but confidence is low. Low level jet will result in gusty SW winds developing. The low level inversion will prevent the stronger winds from mixing down but the potential exists for a few 30-40 mph gusts, especially inland from the immediate south coast where milder temps will help to erode the inversion. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long Term Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day on Friday * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing warmth and shower chances Saturday night into Sunday * Trending cooler again early next week Thursday night and Friday A dry cold front pushes through the region Thursday night into Friday brining abnormally high 925 hPa temps near 15C down to values closer to normal for early April in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. This front will be accompanied by a dry northwest flow that will support efficient mixing on Friday afternoon. As a result we can expect a pleasant/sunny early spring afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s across southern New England. Expect the warmest temperatures in east/southeast MA where downsloping on northwest flow may support temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A 70 degree observation can`t be ruled out with ensemble probabilities suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of temperatures greater than 69 degrees on Friday afternoon. The warmth will be accompanied by a northwest breeze with some gusts of 20 mph possible across the region. Saturday through Sunday night. The warmth from Friday quickly cools down on Saturday as high pressure is forecast to build north and east of southern New England. This will allow a backdoor cold front to advect cooler air back into the region with 925 hPa temps dipping near the freezing mark by Saturday morning. This will support a cool/raw day with highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s for much of southern New England. Saturday will as mark the beginning of a wet/unsettled period. As the aforementioned area of high pressure continues to shift east, return flow from the south will support WAA driven showers over southern New England likely beginning Saturday afternoon. Expect precipitation to persist through Sunday as the associated low-pressure system traverses over The Northeast Saturday night through Sunday evening. As warm sector air lifts over the region on Sunday, 925 hPa temps rise dramatically to the 15 to 20C range. So while Sunday is expected to be wet/rainy, it will also be on the warm/humid side with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Ensemble mean precipitation forecasts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night are ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch across southern New England. Some of this precip may come in the form of convective showers Sunday night as the associated cold front drives the warm sector air out of the region. Model derived CAPE values are unimpressive at this time, but with ensemble mean SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg, a few showers could have a rumble of thunder, particularly along the south coast. Monday and Tuesday Trending drier and more seasonable on Monday as a cold front ushers a drier air mass over the southern New England. Ensemble mean high temperatures on Monday afternoon currently ranging from the mid to upper 50s across southern New England which is close to normal for this time of year. Model spread increases on Tuesday with the ECMWF/CMC models supporting a somewhat strong CAA pattern that would feature high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s on Tuesday. The GFS is less aggressive with cooler air and keeps high temps in the mid to upper 40s next Tuesday. Stay tuned for further details... && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12Z TAF Update: Today...High Confidence. VFR. NE wind 5-15 kt becoming SE-S in the afternoon. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but risk for -PL across the interior with pockets of -FZRA higher elevations. Thursday...Moderate Confidence Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing. BOS TAF...High confidence. BDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. Winds below SCA. N-NE wind will become SE this afternoon. Hazardous seas over the outer waters will subside below 5 ft this afternoon. Tonight and Thursday...High confidence. Increasing southerly winds late tonight becoming SW Thursday. Modest low level jet over the waters but strong low level inversion will prevent stronger winds from mixing down. Expect gusts to 30 kt Thu. SCA will be needed. Spotty light rain tonight into Thu. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. && $$ |
| #1225251 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 653 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today, bringing seasonal temperatures. Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday into Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives Sunday into Sunday night as a cold front moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for widespread frost Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Early morning sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery showed cirrus building into the area from the W. Cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E this morning. Temps as of 650 AM ranged from the mid-upper 30s N/NE to the mid 40s SW. The high to the N gradually moves E across New England today creating a bit of a CAD setup across the Piedmont. As such, expect mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont today with partly cloudy skies along and E of I-95. Cannot rule out some light drizzle or a brief sprinkle across the Piedmont this afternoon, but confidence is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Given the cloud cover across the Piedmont, temps will likely remain cooler. However, some models have a warm front lifting N by late afternoon into the S portions of the FA with temps potentially warming. Therefore, confidence in temps is lowest across the Piedmont and they may need to be lowered (around 60F as opposed to mid 60s) if the CAD holds on. The onshore flow will also keep temps cooler along the coast and the Eastern Shore with highs in the mid 50s (around 50F at Ocean City, MD). In between these areas, temps likely rise into the lower 60s across N central VA and mid-upper 60s across S central VA. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting a warm front N across the FA. As such, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large ridge builds across the E CONUS, allowing for well above normal temperatures. In fact, Summer-like temperatures are expected Thu and Fri with highs in the low-mid 80s (most in the mid 80s) Thu and mid- upper 80s for most Fri (mid-upper 70s across the far N including the Eastern Shore). Dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s Thu with ample CAPE and shear developing across the area. However, a shortwave passes well to the N of the local area across the Ohio Valley and N VA with no real forcing for showers/storms across the local area. As such, most models keep the local area dry Thu. However, a few models indicate the potential for the forcing to be a touch farther S with storms potentially moving across far N portions of the FA Thu afternoon into Thu evening. As such, only have 15-30% PoPs across this area. However, given the environment, if storms do develop, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. As such, SPC has this area under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms Thu with a slight risk (level 2/5) bordering the N portions of the FA and including all of N VA. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-medium. For now, have 40-50% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Otherwise, a sharp temperature gradient is possible across N portions of the FA behind the front Fri with highs in the 70s NE (possibly cooler) whereas temps S of the front likely rise into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday. - Widespread showers and storms are possible Sunday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with widespread frost possible Tuesday night. A large ridge remains in place across the E CONUS this weekend with a large, stationary front located W of the Appalachians. As such, expect well above normal temps to continue with highs in the mid- upper 80s S and 70s NE Sat and mid-upper 80s Sun (most in the upper 80s). A warm front lifts N across the area Sat. However, it may not lift N in time for the Eastern Shore to see much warming with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and low-mid 70s elsewhere. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected Sat apart from a few light showers across N portions of the FA early in the day. Mostly cloudy skies linger across the Eastern Shore with partly cloudy skies elsewhere by the afternoon. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible. The cold front finally begins to approach from the W Sun night with widespread showers and storms possible ahead of the front Sun afternoon into Sun night. Showers may linger across SE portions of the FA into Mon evening. Behind the front, dry weather returns with temps cooling drastically. Highs are only expected to range from the mid-upper 60s for most Mon and in the mid-upper 50s N to around 60F S Tue. Lows will also cool with lows Mon night in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are possible along with widespread frost. The NBM even has some portions of the FA dropping below freezing. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Wednesday... Cirrus linger across the area today with mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont and I-95 corridor and partly sunny skies east. CIGs gradually lower by late this morning into this afternoon from SW to NE as stratus move in (CIGs generally 4000-8000 ft). CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight with MVFR CIGs pushing in from SW to NE. IFR CIGs are expected across the Piedmont to RIC after 6z Thu and may reach PHF. However, confidence is low in IFR CIGs reaching ORF/SBY. Otherwise, remaining dry apart from some occasional light drizzle or sprinkles across the Piedmont mainly this evening into tonight. Light E winds early this morning become ESE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt by this afternoon, becoming SE this evening. Outlook: CIGs improve to VFR/MVFR by Thursday afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region. This cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back north Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. 1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt. Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to ~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn, and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around 3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft (highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW wind from mixing over adjacent land areas. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225249 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 636 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low level moisture is expected to result in low stratus and fog this morning. Have issued a dense fog advisory for areas most likely to experience low visibilities based on latest guidance and current satellite and observations. This area may need to be expanded. Morning fog and stratus will lift after sunrise this morning. Surface high pressure will be located to the northeast through Tonight. This pattern will result in a prevailing flow from the southeast. A combination of a weak upper wave, and diurnal instability will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon inland. The thunderstorms which do develop will move further inland through the afternoon with the flow. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will range from east to west Today, with highs in the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast, to the lower 90s inland. Convection will dissipate this evening, with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be common Tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 HOT and dry with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland each day. An unseasonably strong 500 mb ridge center dominates just east of the FL Atlantic coast with the low level ridge axis extending from a center near Bermuda to across the local forecast area. Strong subsidence will bring dry weather, with a prevailing east coast sea breeze regime keeping coastal locations `cooler` with highs in the mid 80s. Gusty ESE winds of 20-30 mph will impact locations locations inland toward the St. Johns River basin each afternoon trailing the east coast sea breeze. Mild overnight low temperatures will range in the 60s with patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The heat continues this weekend with strong subsidence in place. The region of hottest daytime highs shifts gradually west to east from Saturday into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs continuing Sat & Sun. Gusty WSW winds develop Sunday as the next frontal system approaches from the west with consensus guidance still showing a low (< 30%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. Drier air filters across SE GA into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage with a few linger mainly coastal showers possible for NE FL as breezy NNE flow develops into mid-week. A cool down next week trailing the frontal passage with temperatures falling near and below climo values for early April with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue and lows ranging in the 40s to 50s. At this time, forecast guidance keeps low temperatures above frost potential. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low stratus and fog will gradually lift this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by noon, with VFR conditions then through the afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible inland this afternoon, but this activity is not expected to affect local TAF sites at this time. The thunderstorms will be closest to KGNV. Patchy fog will develop overnight Tonight, which could lead to reduced visibilities toward dawn Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure will be northeast of the region Today and Thursday. A few morning thunderstorms will be possible over the waters, along with potential for fog closer to the coast. The high will become centered more toward the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move away to the east Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front is forecast to move through Sunday night and Monday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: High Risk For Rip Currents Through Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High inland dispersion today and Thursday for inland locations including the Okefenokee NWR, Osceola NF and Ocala NF with above normal high temperatures near 90 degrees and elevated SE transport winds. A dominant east coast sea breeze is expected each day with mostly dry conditions. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph trailing the sea breeze with gusts up to 30 mph possible, mainly for locations near and east of the I-95 corridor and near St. Johns River basin. Minimum relative humidity will remain above critical values. Inland fog is possible the next couple of nights. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 67 89 66 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 77 68 81 68 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 87 69 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 83 69 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 91 68 92 65 / 0 10 10 0 OCF 92 68 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-035-120-124-220-322-422-522. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450. && $$ |
| #1225248 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 639 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will be lifting northwards across the region today. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning: Widespread stratus and areas of fog, much of which will be dense as we start the day. Based on observations, trends, and most of the guidance, we have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for all but the Charleston Tri-County region. Those locations have a little more wind off the surface, and a less pronounced inversion than elsewhere. The Dense Fog Advisory goes through 9 AM, and all fog should have dissipated by 10 AM when the inversion breaks. For today: Moisture convergence and a modest amount of instability off the coast will generate isolated showers and t-storms. While we can`t rule out some of that activity making it onshore, the better probabilities remain over the Atlantic. We`ve updated the forecast to include a few showers brushing onshore at times this morning. Meanwhile, the large scale pattern features a strengthening 500 hPa ridge centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda, allowing us to have a southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a warm front will lift of the area this afternoon, with strong high pressure to expand in from the northeast and east thereafter. This will allow for a fairly decent sea breeze to form during midday as it progresses inland. By late afternoon, with the sea breeze inland from I-95, it will encounter a fairly decent environment for isolated to perhaps showers and t-storms. MUCAPE is expected to be as great as 1500-2500 J/kg, overlapped by a region where there is a 30-50% probability of max 2-5 km updraft strength of greater than 20 m/sec. We have 20-30% PoPs as a result. We have also included a slight chance of showers and t-storms along he northward moving warm front this afternoon over parts of the South Carolina coastal counties. Although insolation is cut down by the morning fog/stratus, 850 hPa temps reach 15-17C this afternoon. This supports highs in the lower and middle 80s for most communities. With a southeasterly sea breeze around 15 mph, coastal sections will be cooler and in the 70s. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts exp[anding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, no mention is required as of this time. Those winds will prevent full decoupling over most of the region, and that along with a south- southeast low level flow will limit minimum temps to just the middle 60s, or around 15F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm/hot temperatures are the main story for the short term. Upper level ridging strengthens on Thursday and again on Friday, and with situational awareness tables (ESATs) showing record high 500 hPa geopotential heights occurring in relation to 30-year normals, warm/hot temperatures are expected. ESATs also show temperatures at 850 hPa over the 90th percentile of climatology are expected, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to upper 80s for inland areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Friday is looking to be a degree or two warmer given the continued strengthening of the upper level ridge, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for inland areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. The good news? These temperatures will be brought down to the surface by mixy winds, so expect at least a slight breeze to help cool-down. Can`t rule out some 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, as NBM probabilities show 20-30% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 50-70% range for inland GA counties. Probabilities increase on Friday, with NBM probabilities show 30-50% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 60-80% range for inland GA counties. The additional good news is the afternoon sea-breeze will be coming ashore in the mid/late afternoon hours, which will help cool the region back down again. Saturday will begin to see the weakening/shifting of the upper level ridge axis, but given the lack of a fresh airmass expect a near carbon copy of Friday for Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday fall into the mid to upper 60s. Record high daily maximums may occur on Saturday, though the current forecast falls about 2 degrees shy at the Charleston airport. Record high daily minimums look much more likely, with the current forecast within 2-3 degrees Thursday-Sunday, but is going to be largely dependent on the strength of the afternoon sea-breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level wave moves out of the Ontario providence Sunday into Monday, but before that reaches the area another day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected. Relief is in sight as the strong aforementioned wave is accompanied by a surface high pressure moving into the central plains, which will help send a cold front towards the region sometime Sunday/Monday. Scattered showers are expected prior to the frontal passage, with the NBM bringing chances (20-30%) for scattered showers starting late Sunday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the front pushes. NBM does seem to hang onto the chances for rainfall for too long, but looking at the ensembles this largely due to the timing different amongst the models. Current forecasted highs on Monday are in the lower/mid 70s, falling into the upper 60s lower 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: It looks like the worst of the stratus and fog will stay to the south and southwest of the terminals into Wednesday morning. But even so, MVFR or possible IFR will occur until around 1330Z, with a moisture trapped beneath a 1-2C inversion. Conditions return to VFR thereafter as the inversion climbs. We`ll have to keep watch for a return of flight restrictions later tonight. Meanwhile, as a warm front lifts past these sites this morning, there could be a few showers around the area. Coverage is too small to include anything at this time. KSAV: There is already low ceilings as we begin the 06Z TAF cycle, and with a stronger inversion than those sites to the north, we anticipate even worse conditions will develop, potentially down near airfield mins. While there is improving ceilings/visibilities by 1330Z, it`ll take until around 16Z before VFR returns. Flight restrictions could return again later tonight. With the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon, gusty S-SE winds will peak around 18-22 kt until close to sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions may be possible Thursday morning due to both sea and land fog, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible. After that, generally quiet aviation conditions are expected through Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the NE and E the rest of the day. The local gradient will tighten somewhat, and that along with the sea breeze will result in winds veering to the SE as high as 10-15 or 15 kt. Charleston Harbor will experience some gusts around 20 kt this afternoon due to deeper mixing due to the nearby warmer land mass. Seas will be a mix of wind driven waves and swells, climbing to 2-4 feet. The coverage of the fog has diminished since earlier due to nearby showers, and the Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled. We still maintain patchy fog through the morning hours, but with the formation of the sea breeze, edifier is left by then will have dissipated. Tonight: High pressure will control the weather across the area, and with increasing low level winds, surface winds will also respond. SE winds will climb up to another 5 kt or so, except holding at similar speeds with less gustiness in Charleston Harbor. Seas build up to another foot given the higher winds. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches today. Thursday: Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday, with near-shore winds remaining out of the south-southeast at around 10- 12 knots, bringing waves of 3-4 feet into the beach zones every 8-10 seconds. Thursday - Saturday: Surface high pressure off to our east, with generally quiet marine conditions forecasted into the weekend, with winds around 10 knots and seas averaging 3 to 4 ft in the near-shore waters, fairly consistently near 4 feet in the offshore Georgia zone Sunday: The surface pressure gradient begins to rise overnight into Sunday, remaining elevated throughout the day. Currently have winds remaining below small craft criteria, but something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ040-042- 043-047>049-051. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225247 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:42 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 636 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow continues today with high pressure offshore. The lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm front tonight with much above normal warmth arriving for Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north will continue to bring onshore flow today into tonight. The result will be partly to mostly cloudy skies and it isn`t impossible that there could be a few light showers around. Highs today will reach mid to upper 70s with cooler numbers nearer the ocean. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure to the east and upper level ridging off of the southeastern Atlantic coast will serve as the catalyst for a humid, late-week warmup. Highs on Thursday will be well above normal, many areas will likely climb into the mid 80s. A sea breeze near the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Breezy behind a strong afternoon sea breeze. Southerly winds overnight will keep dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warmer on Friday and Saturday as the ridge strengthens. Inland areas have a shot at seeing their first 90 degree high of the year on Friday and each day after. This would be nearly a month before the average first 90 degree day of May 2nd for FLO/LBT. The best chance of seeing 90 degrees will be on Sunday as warm air advection increases ahead of the next cold front. Cooler on the coast as a strong sea breeze develops, keeping coastal temperatures in the mid and upper 70s to around 80. Humid each day with dew points solidly in the 60s. A cold front approaches the area late Sunday into Monday. This initial front will bring a chance of showers late Sunday. Some weak instability inland could produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. The shortwave accompanying the cold front will weaken as it lifts northward late Sunday into Monday. A secondary shortwave will approach the area on Monday. Lift will be stronger and more pronounced with the second wave and this should be the best chance of showers. Cooler air will follow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Onshore flow is resulting in the development of clouds in the 500 to 1500 ft range early this morning, though terminals are all aoa 1 kft attm. Overall expect to see general improvement as the day progresses though inland terminals may not lose cigs. Do expect at least mvfr cigs to redevelop overnight tonight, especially inland. E wind 5 to 10 kt will become more se today and se to s overnight. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR through the period. && .MARINE... Through tonight... E winds to 10 to 15 KT will become SE and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT. Thursday through Sunday... High pressure will maintain southerly winds between 10-15 knots through the weekend. The pressure gradient will increase late this weekend ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday, and building seas to 6 feet could become more widespread as a prolonged fetch southerly winds builds the wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225245 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 635 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... As of 635 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight, which will allow clouds to increase and lower through the day. Despite rising low- level thicknesses, the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s (10-15 deg above normal for early April). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Wed...Mix of VFR and MVFR across the terminals early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low- level moistening within the developing easterly flow today, supporting the risk for a prolonged period of sub- VFR cigs this afternoon into tonight. IFR cigs will be possible overnight, though with southerly flow developing will keep at MVFR for now. A few isolated showers will be possible as well, with best chances overnight with advancing warm front. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 635 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there is potential for the outer central and southern waters to briefly build to 6 ft overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225246 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:36 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 631 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Interestingly, a few models develop isolated convection across the northeast corner of the forecast area in association with some weak surface convergence. Confidence is not high on this, but if convection were to occur, then gusty convective winds would be possible due to high DCAPE this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail. High temperatures will vary across the region with the coolest temperatures this afternoon along the coast with onshore flow from the relatively cooler water. Away from the coast, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s to near 90 possible across the eastern part of the area. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure to our east will keep our weather warm and dry to start the term. An upper level trough well to our northwest with an accompanying cold front will create continue the breezy conditions from Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient. The cold front will not approach the region as the upper level support will be separated from the front, stalling it along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Deep layer ridging off the east coast of Florida will be strong enough to block the system through the weekend. Until then, expect warming temperatures with near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be muggy in the mid to upper 60s. The pattern changes when a new shortwave trough develops to our west late this weekend and pushes eastward, as the high pressure also moves off to the east. This would move the previously mentioned frontal system over to the eastern third of the U.S. by Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain, and cooler temperatures to follow. PoPs range around 50-60 percent Sunday evening through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about 1.5-2" for this event, so heavy rainfall is possible. However, the progressiveness of the front should deter any prolonged flooding from occurring. Yet, minor urban and low-lying areas could experience flash flooding. The WPC for Day 5 (Sunday) has highlighted for areas along and west of the Tifton to Port St Joe line in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall. From Albany to Panama City line and west is included in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected for these regions from Sunday through Monday. Regarding any severe weather, the potential is not zero but, the amount of instability available will be waning as the system moves east Sunday night into Monday. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will enter the region with temperatures cooling to the upper 60s/low 70s for the highs, and lows will fall to the 50s. There is still much uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and potential hazards, yet we will continue to monitor and check back for further updates. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today. Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning into the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots expected. Winds will diminish again this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog will remain over the marine zones for several hours this morning. We can expect fog to develop at times for the next few days. Southerly flow will increase through the week, leading to Cautionary level conditions prevailing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of south-central Georgia this afternoon. MinRH values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast today and Thursday away from the coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Next chance for rain will be late this weekend into the start of next week. The WPC has highlighted our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) and Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall for Sunday. Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Mainly flash flooding is the concern due to the high PWATs of nearly 2 inches. This may cause some river rises, however our rivers are in good condition. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 68 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 67 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 67 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 68 90 67 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 89 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 68 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ112. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1225244 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:33 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Discussion, Marine... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A large upper trof over the western and central states moves little through Friday, then finally progresses slowly into the eastern CONUS through Tuesday. A surface low lifts from the Plains to across the Great Lakes and gradually brings a frontal boundary towards the region that extends from Tennessee to eastern Texas by Thursday before stalling. A surface ridge meanwhile remains in place over the southeastern states, and this pattern tightens the pressure gradient sufficiently to result in breezy conditions for much of the area today. Have opted to issue a Wind Advisory from 10 am to 7 pm roughly along and west of I-65 for wind gusts up to 40 mph. In addition, it appears that minor coastal flooding is possible mainly along the Mobile Bay Causeway, and have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 am until 6 pm for this concern. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the coastal counties until 9 am this morning, by which time any lingering fog should have dissipated as the southerly flow increases. Will need to also monitor for additional fog development near the coast tonight. Dry conditions are expected over the forecast area through Thursday, then small pops follow for portions of southeast Mississippi on Friday as a series of modest shortwaves move across the region. As the large upper trof begins to advances towards the eastern states, another surface low is expected to develop over the southern Plains and bring a cold front through the forecast area mainly during the day on Sunday. It appears that a shortwave trof (or series of shortwaves) embedded in the large upper trof pattern will move across the forecast region Saturday into Sunday morning which could aid/result in a line of convection moving through the area either ahead of or along the approaching cold front. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops for the western third of the area on Saturday with slight chance to likely pops following for Saturday night, with the highest pops over portions of southeast Mississippi. Likely to categorical pops are expected for Sunday. MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg are indicated over the western half of the area on Saturday which then spread over the remainder of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning ahead of the cold front. A 40 knot 850 mb jet develops on Saturday and may strengthen a bit more Saturday night before tapering off on Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor this time period for a strong to severe storm risk. SPC has included a portion of the area west of I-65 in a 15% severe storm risk for Saturday into Saturday night, with the central and eastern portions of the area in a 15% risk for Sunday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect through Sunday. /29 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VLIFR conditions develop across the coastal counties overnight then improve to IFR/MVFR by mid Wednesday morning. IFR conditions are expected to develop over interior areas tonight then improve to MVFR/VFR conditions Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots increase to 15-20 knots on Wednesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Alabama Gulf waters until 1 pm Thursday, and is also in effect for Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound until 3 pm this afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution over much of the remainder of the area. Dense fog is expected over bays and near shore waters until mid morning, and will need to monitor for additional fog development tonight. /29 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 82 70 82 69 81 69 82 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 Pensacola 77 70 77 70 78 70 78 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 77 68 78 69 78 70 78 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 87 65 86 66 86 64 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 Waynesboro 87 69 87 68 86 68 86 65 / 10 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 Camden 87 67 85 68 87 66 87 66 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 85 65 83 65 84 64 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>055-261>266. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ263-264. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ630>632. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225243 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 500 AM AST Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers are expected to continue throughout the day, mainly affecting eastern portions of Puerto Rico and adjacent islands the remainder of the morning hours, then scattered to numerous showers will develop across the interior and western Puerto Rico as the day progresses. Tomorrow and Friday are expected to be the windiest days, maintaining hazardous marine conditions, as well as life-threatening rip currents across most local beaches. Small Craft Advisories and a High Rip Current Risk will remain in effect at least through next Saturday. Swimmers are urged to exercise caution by staying near lifeguards, avoiding dangerous waters, and following warning signs. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday... During the night, GOES-16 satellite data detected a broad area of slightly above-normal moisture and extensive cloud coverage moving into the forecast area. This resulted in numerous showers across eastern portions of Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. These showers moved through the region fairly quickly; however, some localized areas observed up to half an inch of rainfall accumulation. These showers were accompanied by gusty winds, with some weather stations reporting wind gusts between 30 and 35 mph at times, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA. Similar weather conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the morning hours. The forecast remains on track, with troughiness aloft expected to persist through the short-term period, particularly from Thursday onward. The limiting factor will be moisture, as model guidance continues to indicate a significant drop in mid-level relative humidity by midday Thursday, falling below 10-15%. At lower levels, moisture content will gradually decrease to near-normal or even below-normal levels. As a result, periods of limited shower activity and clearer skies will alternate with brief episodes of showers associated with pockets of moisture embedded in the trade winds. The overall flood threat remains limited, with today likely bringing the highest rainfall accumulationsparticularly across the eastern half of the CWA. Any thunderstorm activity that does develop is expected to be short-lived and very localized. Breezy to windy conditions are expected to persist through the period as the pressure gradient across the northern Caribbean continues to tighten. This pattern is driven by a surface high- pressure system building over the west- central Atlantic, reinforcing strong easterly trade winds across the region. Model guidance remains consistent, maintaining high forecast confidence in increasing wind speeds through the end of the workweek. Thursday is still expected to be the peak of this wind event, with sustained winds likely to exceed 25 mph and frequent gusts reaching or surpassing 35 mph, especially across coastal areas of Puerto Rico and the surrounding smaller islands. Given the expected wind strength, we will continue to monitor conditions closely. A Wind Advisory may be issued if forecast trends hold. These winds could lead to hazardous travel conditions, particularly for high-profile vehicles, and may cause outdoor items to blow around or become damaged. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... At the beginning of the long-term period, conditions will remain breezy but are anticipated to follow a decreasing trend. At the same time, this will allow hazardous marine and coastal conditions to gradually improve, at least from Saturday night through at least next Monday. Model guidance continues to suggest that a surface high-pressure system over the western Atlantic will move eastward into the Central Atlantic, promoting east to northeast winds through Sunday. These winds will then become more easterly early next week. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge will dominate to the north and west of the forecast area, while troughing develops and persists over the region through the forecast period. This will promote ventilation and cooler temperatures aloft, with 500 mb temperatures remaining between -8C to -10C by the weekend. These conditions will support favorable conditions for deep convection and increase the chances of thunderstorm development. However, a significant drop in moisture content across different levels of the atmosphere is expected to inhibit significant rainfall and afternoon thunderstorms. The latest models still show uncertainty and disagree on the amount and timing of precipitation at this moment and we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast accordingly. Throughout the forecast period, the latest models suggest that precipitable water values will oscillate between below 1.0 and 1.5 inches, which is considered below normal to near average. As a result, activity will likely depend on the arrival of patches of moisture, leading to periods of sunshine and passing showers. Isolated to scattered showers, with a thunderstorm or two, cannot be ruled out during the afternoon hours across the western portions of Puerto Rico, but at the moment, significant accumulations are not expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals during the next 24 hours. However, groups of clouds will move over the area today increasing SCT-BKN lyrs near FL025...FL040...FL080 with Isold-WDLY SCT SHRA across northern terminals of PR and USVI through 02/15z. E/ENE winds of 15-20 kts with higher gusts through the period. Winds could reach 30 kts or higher blo FL050 aft 02/22z. && .MARINE... A surface high pressure over the Atlantic basin will continue to promote fresh to locally strong easterly winds throughout the week. Thursday and Friday are expected to be the windiest days of the week. Seas will continue to build between 6 and 9 feet, and occasionally higher, across the regional waters. As a result, hazardous seas are anticipated for most waters through the whole forecast period. Isolated to scattered shower activity will continue over the next few days. && .BEACH FORECAST... Prevailing hazardous beach conditions are expected this week, with Thursday and Friday seeing the highest risk, as they are anticipated to be the windiest days this forecast period. This will result in increasingly rough and dangerous seas, creating life-threatening rip currents across most local beaches. A High Rip Current Risk will remain in effect through at least Saturday afternoon along beaches of northern Puerto Rico, from Aguadilla to Fajardo, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A moderate risk is in place elsewhere. Important to note that other areas like Vieques and southeast Puerto Rico are likely to be added to the Rip Current Statement later today or tonight, we will continue to monitor conditions. Swimmers are urged to exercise caution by staying near lifeguards, avoiding dangerous waters, and following warning signs. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for PRZ001-002- 005-008-012. VI...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for VIZ001-002. AM...Small Craft Advisory until noon AST Saturday for AMZ711-712-716- 723-726-733-741. && $$ |
| #1225242 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 358 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A warm day expected today as heights continue to increase with the H5 ridge building across the western Atlantic. This will place our region in an active southwest flow, however, rain chances stay to our north and west through the short term. A cold front tries to move toward our region on Thursday, but stalls out under this flow upstream. At the surface, pressure gradient will remain fairly tight between a strong high pressure off the east coast and low pressure over the high plains. This is also causing a long fetch across the Gulf, which will not only have marine impacts (see marine section), but also pile water along the coast leading to coastal flooding. This package it was decided to place the southeast facing shore/beaches in a Coastal Flood Warning during high tide as guidance is right around that threshold and these areas are pretty vulnerable to high water. Elsewhere, all coastal zones apart from the southshore have been issued an advisory. Coastal Flood Watches continue beyond today into Thursday and will be evaluated again for possible upgrades to an advisory or warning in subsequent updates. The wind advisory for landbased zones remains in effect again as the strong pressure gradient remains locked across the entire CWFA. If we happen to get some breaks, some stronger winds may mix down in gusts up to 40 mph or so. Otherwise, along the immediate coast, fog/low stratus will be possible through mid morning or so. Visibilities aren`t that of needing a landbased dense fog advisory yet, but we will continue to monitor that potential through sunrise, especially along the MS Gulf Coast. And again, well above average through the short term with near record highs currently in the forecast. The warmest locations will be inland where some may approach 90F. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A fairly robust 593 H5 ridge will continue to reside off the east coast going into the start of the long term. This feature again will continue the overall southwesterly flow aloft over our region and also provide us with a continuation of above average temperatures going into the last bit of the workweek. However, the large scale trough across the western tier states will finally start to break this feature down. The stubborn frontal boundary that stalled from TX to the Ohio Valley will finally start to move toward our region this weekend. Globals are still in good agreement with the timing of this feature. That said, there will be at least some severe potential late Saturday and into Sunday morning, although timing looks to be a limitation at this juncture. That said, we will still continue to monitor as shear and at least modest instability will be present with the better parameters and better forcing residing just to our north. Ahead of the front the southerly fetch will continue right up until the front passes. This will likely continue the need for coastal flood products with multiple days of water piling up along the coast and into the tidal lakes. Behind the front, strong CAA takes shape, which should drop our temperatures by about 20 degrees in terms of afternoon MaxTs. That said, there are some slight differences in the Globals in terms of the frontal evolution after it passes. ECM wants to slow things down a bit, which could keep some lingering showers around, but the GFS is more progressive sending the front well east of our area. Implications of course here would be POPs to start the new workweek. Over the last couple of runs the ECM has sped up a bit, but still largely lacks the progressiveness in the GFS solution. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Terminals generally bouncing between MVFR and IFR, although in the last few minutes, KGPT has dropped to near field minima. The conditions at KGPT could continue for much of the night as this is advective fog. IFR or lower conditions should be prevailing for much of the night until about 15z, when ceilings will improve to MVFR. Any VFR ceilings could be rather limited in scope on Wednesday. A somewhat larger issue could be sustained winds of 20 knots or more with gusts in excess of 30 knots for much of the day. Winds will be south-southeasterly, so could be a crosswind issue on east-west configurations. Winds may relax...a bit...during the evening. (RW) && .MARINE... Issued at 222 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Hazardous marine conditions have developed with small craft advisories in effect for all local waters. In addition, marine fog has developed right along the coast as rich low level moisture advects over cooler waters. Going into late week, moderate winds and seas at least expected with a likely long standing SCA for most if not all the local waters. A cold front will move through the region on Sunday, which will again strengthen the low level flow out ahead of this feature. It is quite possible we will need small craft advisories into early next week. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 86 70 87 71 / 10 0 10 10 BTR 87 73 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 72 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 MSY 86 73 87 74 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 80 71 81 71 / 10 0 10 0 PQL 82 70 83 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ058-066>069-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ532-536- 538-550-552-555-557. MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ087-088. Coastal Flood Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon for MSZ086>088. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ536-538- 550-552-555-557. && $$ |
| #1225241 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 436 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 It is a quiet early morning across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity and GOES 16 Nighttime Microphysics shows low level cumulus clouds streaming from southeast to northwest through the Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain remain quite warm in the upper 70s with dew points in the mid 70s. Surface high pressure over the Atlantic continues to build this morning. As a result, marine platforms around the Keys are observing east to southeast breezes of 10 to 15 knots and Island Chain communities observing 10 to 15 mph. .FORECAST... The aforementioned high will continue to remain the dominant weather feature for the next several days as it remains entrenched across the Atlantic. This high will fluctuate in strength while meandering about the western North Atlantic. Moisture is expected to remain rather scarce today through Sunday as the high shoves a large area of dry air over the Atlantic westward into the area resulting in near nil rain chances through the extended period. Even forecast model sounding shows a large amount of dry air through the profile with scant low level moisture. At best, there may be just some cumulus to stratocumulus that dot the sky from time to time. On the other hand, a prolonged breezy to windy period will begin today continuing through at least early Sunday before winds slowly diminish. Winds through this time frame will remain mostly east to southeasterly. The high over the Atlantic in conjunction with a couple strengthening mid latitude cyclones over the nations midsection will lead to a healthy pressure gradient which will help to contribute to the breezy to windy conditions. Temperatures will remain fairly consistent through the period with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Moisture will be slow to increase across the area over the second half of the weekend into early next week. Slight chances of rain (10%) creep into the forecast beginning Sunday night increasing slightly to 20% for Monday night and Tuesday as a potential front approaches the Keys. The timing, strength, and evolution of the pattern for the early next week remains uncertain at this time leaving at best average confidence. One thing we can say is this has been showing more consistency over the past few model cycles. At best, increasing moisture is expected along with the potential for breezy conditions for early next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Straits of Florida today. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds as well as Small Craft Advisory likely will be required is headlined for the remainder of the Florida Keys coastal waters today, except for the Florida Bay where may be required is headlined. From synopsis, a strong high pressure system will continue to build in the western North Atlantic today, leading to additional freshening of east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys marine zones. Fresh to strong east to southeast breezes are expected for today through at least early Sunday as the high remains dominant across the western North Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Near nil rain chances are expected through today. East to southeast winds will increase from near 15 knots to 15 to 20 knots later this morning and remain elevated through tonight. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1987, after a high of 65F and low of 56F the previous day (the 1st), the low temperature of 48F at Key West International Airport on the 2nd shattered the cold record for the date. It is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Key West in the month of April (with the next-lowest being 54F in 1891), and the next-latest sub- 50F reading ever is 49F on March 4, 1980. 47F on March 3, 1986. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 77 84 77 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 84 77 84 77 / 0 10 10 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ052>055-072>075. && $$ |
| #1225238 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 433 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 -Patchy fog and low stratus may develop early this morning, across much of east central Florida. Visibility reductions of 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog to develops will lift by 9 AM. -Breezy southeast winds developing today with dry conditions prevailing through the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers and storms return early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. -Warming trend into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic will build across the Florida peninsula today, and will dominate the local weather pattern. Surface high pressure across the NE US coast will slowly shift southward into the Atlantic waters into this afternoon, continuing to move seaward through tonight. Patchy fog and low stratus are once again possible early this morning across much of east central Florida, especially over areas that received rain yesterday. Visibility reductions to 1 mile or less will be possible in dense fog. Any fog that does form is forecast to lift by 9 AM. Light winds this morning will become southeast by mid/late morning, increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts 20- 25 mph at times by this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form in the afternoon and push inland. Forecast soundings continue to show dry air in the mid-upper levels with PW values ranging from 1.1-1.2". Despite this sufficient low level moisture and an inland moving sea breeze, no mentionable rain chances are forecast through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies today with above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s across the interior, and mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wednesday-Sunday... Mid and upper level high pressure across the Western Atlantic, extending to the Florida peninsula, will dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure off the Northeast US coast on Thursday will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with the axis continuing to build over the Florida peninsula. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sunday as the surface high pressure continues to shift south and eastward as a frontal boundary approaches and moves into the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temperatures will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior, and in the low to mid 80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Thursday night onward. Monday-Wednesday... A deep upper level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast US coastline (near the Carolinas) Tuesday night. An accompanying cold front across the deep south on Monday will push southeast across the local area Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring rain chances back into the forecast. There is a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of rain and storms across east central Florida on Monday and Monday night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 percent chance for rain and storms on Tuesday behind the front. A surface high pressure will then build across the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. Lingering moisture across east central Florida will support isolated to scattered showers on Wednesday. Southwest winds on Monday will veer west to northwest Monday night behind the front before continuing to veer north to northeast Tuesday afternoon, and northeast on Wednesday. Wind will become breezy (10-15 mph) Wednesday along the coast, otherwise speeds will generally be around 10 mph. Warm conditions on Monday ahead of the front with noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday, and mid 70s across the north and upper 70s to low 80s across the south on Tuesday, and mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s, except upper 50s across the far north on Monday, and low to mid 50s across the interior, and mid to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... Issued at 432 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Today-Tonight... Poor boating conditions developing in the Treasure Coast waters and the offshore Brevard waters this afternoon and continuing into tonight as southeast winds increase to 15-20 KT this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in these waters into tonight. Southeast winds will increase to 10-15 KT in the remaining Atlantic waters. Seas 3-4ft today will increase up to 5 ft in the offshore waters tonight. No mentionable rain chances through the period. Thur-Sunday... High pressure will then dominate the local weather pattern through the weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast in the Gulf Stream waters Thursday, becoming generally favorable into the weekend. South to southwest winds around 10 KT on Tuesday will back to the southeast in the afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Southeast winds will increase to 15-20 KT on Thursday before diminishing to around 15 KT on Friday and Saturday. Winds veer Southerly on Sunday and increase to 15-20 KT by the afternoon. Seas 4-5ft on Thursday will subside to 3-4ft on Friday through Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions expected through today into tonight, with dry conditions forecast. Some brief MVFR cigs may continue through 08Z from KMLB southward. Also, may see some patchy fog develop through early this morning, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conds. Added tempo 5SM BR between 10-13Z for inland sites and KDAB where fog potential is slightly higher. However, hi-res guidance currently indicates best potential for fog north and west of the east central FL area. Expansive area of high pressure with center pushing offshore the northeast U.S. this afternoon will produce a breezy to windy southeast flow across the area today. SE winds will increase to around 12-15 knots across the interior with gusts to 20-22 knots. The inland moving east coast sea breeze will increase E/SE winds along the coast even more, around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon. Increasing boundary layer winds above the surface into tonight should limit any fog potential, but may see some patchy/areas of stratus form late in the night, producing tempo MVFR cigs, mainly after 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 89 71 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 71 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 90 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 89 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225237 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:24 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 318 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday Night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: 1) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in our northern counties today. An isolated severe thunderstorm possible. Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms in our northern counties. 2) Similar situation tomorrow, but with a somewhat more favorable environment for thunderstorms. Severe weather risk is rated Slight (Level 2/5) in our northern counties and Marinal (Level 1/5) down to the I-10 corridor. 3) Gusty winds are likely today and tomorrow. A Wind Advisory is in effect today. Winds could gust over 40 MPH at times. The mid/upper pattern across CONUS has amplified, featuring deep layer troughing out west, and a building ridge over E CONUS. The trough has induced cyclogenesis in the Central Plains, which is evident by the deepening sfc low that is progressing from Kansas into Nebraska and Iowa today. The low is steepening the gradient across SE TX, resulting in gusty southerly winds. These winds could easily gust over 30 MPH and potentially over 40 MPH at times today (especially in our southern and coastal counties). Given the windy conditions at the sfc, it should be no surprised that the vertical wind profile will be highly sheered. The profile will also be veering, a signal of WAA. This WAA will be particularly pronounced in the 800-700 MB layer, developing a stout cap over the area. The cap may not be super strong early in the afternoon, allowing some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development. But as the cap strengthens, the potential for deeper convection wanes. That being said, the cap will be weaker across our northern counties, which might allow the formation of deeper convection. Given the moisture, LL instability, and shear parameters, we cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms across our northern counties today. SPC currently has a our northern counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe storms capable of producing hail, damaging wind gusts, and a tornado. Could not rule out thunderstorms farther south. But the cap would need to be much weaker. Much like yesterday, I`m looking at forecast soundings that love the idea of persistent low clouds. My concern was that soundings were a little too cool with LL temps and might be overdoing the thickness of the LL cloud deck due to less predicted mixing. Interestingly, my assumptions about the sfc temperatures were correct (except in the Piney Woods), but the clouds held on anyway. So I`m going to go with persistence forecasting when it comes to clouds/temp trends. I lean into the cloudier forecast soundings (still could be breaks in the clouds) while also biasing my forecast warmer than the guidance, generally showing afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s with a few 90 degree spots here and there. It will be quite humid as well but at least the breeze will take a bite out of the heat. Overnight temps are only expected to drop into the low/mid 70s. Interestingly, we find ourselves in a similar environment on Thursday. But this time, an area of low pressure is expected to form much farther south. There should be a little more large scale lift. Plus, forecast soundings are less aggressive with capping (though still show capping). Therefore, it is not a huge surprise that SPC chose to bring the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) down to about the I-10 corridor while our northern counties are under a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for severe weather on Thursday. Thursday will also be breezy, humid, and hot with some areas approaching the 90 degree mark again. Self && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 KEY POINTS: - Severe weather risk continues with the highest probabilities north of I-10. - Flooding potential increases this weekend. - A significant drop in temperatures is expected early next week, following the front. Unsettled weather is expected as we move into the end of the work week and the start of the weekend, with warm and humid conditions, and a risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall. By Friday, the quasi-stationary front will be extending to our northwest, along north-central TX. At the same time, a surface trough will develop along the northwestern Gulf. The dynamic continues aloft with increasing PVA associated with an approaching low moving across the southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico. This pattern of SW to S flow aloft and southerly flow at the surface will continue to surge Gulf moisture inland, and increase instability. Some isentropic lifting can be found on the 300 K layer; therefore, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies along with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Daytime heating, decent shear, and instability will be capable of producing a few strong storms, especially across our northwestern counties. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential. The atmosphere becomes more favorable for showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday evening as the aforementioned front begins to move southeastward into the region. Ahead of the front, PW values remain into the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range, with increasing low to mid lvl instability and strong bulk shear. On top of that, a strong 40 to 50 kt LLJ will develop ahead of the boundary, resulting in more unstable conditions. Having said that, scattered showers and storms are progged as the front moves through late Friday into Saturday. A few of these storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with all severe weather hazards possible (damaging winds, large hail, isolated tornadoes, locally heavy rainfall). SPC continues to highlight this threat in their day 4 convective outlook with a Slight Risk for areas generally north of I-10. Will continue to monitor trends and the evolution of the mid-upper low Wed-Friday as it may impact the potential for Saturday. We have good news if you like cool weather. Well-below normal temperatures are progged behind the front. Global models show 850 mb temperatures in the single digits (degC) by Sunday. This suggests highs mainly in the 60s, which is around 10 to 15 degF below normal for this time of year. It will be a brief cool down as temperatures will gradually climb into the 70s by early next week. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Widespread MVFR across the area, though UTS is having a transient SCT018 moment, and while those may occur here and there, don`t anticipate it happening enough to deviate from MVFR at all terminals to start. Main storm activity to occur to the north of the area, but do have PROB30s for TSRA at CLL, UTS, and CXO for fairly low end potential of storms to dip into some of the area. No mentions from IAH coastward, however. Optimistically bringing things up to a mix of high MVFR and even brief low VFR for a few hours this afternoon, but we should plunge solidly back into MVFR at all sites heading into the evening. With strong low level jet, we are fairly close to the LLWS thresholds, particularly at CLL and UTS, but thinking the strong surface winds should be just enough to preclude an explicit mention in the TAF. It will be close, however. && .MARINE... Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Moderate to strong onshore winds and building seas are expected today across the bays and Gulf waters in response to an approaching slow-moving front. Hazardous marine conditions will continue through the week and into the upcoming weekend with seas gradually building up to 9-10+ ft offshore. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect and is now in effect through the end of the week. Rain and storms will be on the increase this weekend along and ahead a cold front. In addition to marine conditions, beach conditions will become hazardous to dangerous with an increasing risk of high rip currents and coastal flood risk. High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through this evening. This statement will likely be extended through most of the week. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 86 72 88 73 / 30 0 30 20 Houston (IAH) 88 74 89 75 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225236 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 307 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday and Thursday - Heat index values between 102-107 degrees Thursday across the Coastal Plains As the current low-level jet moves eastward this morning into the Gulf waters, the strongest winds will be confined to the Coastal Bend. Another low level jet is expected to redevelop tonight promoting gusty winds once again across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend. Well above normal temperatures will continue today and Thursday with daytime highs 10-15 degrees above normal. A dryline is still expected to move into the Brush Country today providing drier air which will help keep heat index values in check across the Brush Country. Heat index values today will range from the mid to upper 90s across the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads while the Coastal Plains sits a bit warmer between 100-105 degrees. Heat index values will be a bit higher Thursday with most of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads in the upper 90s while the Coastal Plains ranges from 102-107 degrees. Not much relief from the heat is expected tonight as overnight lows only drop into the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 As we conclude the work week, we can expect hot and humid temperatures to last just a touch longer ahead of our next cold front Saturday. We can expect highs to be in the 80s and 90s across much of the region with 100s out in the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains Friday. Saturdays cold front will bring temperatures back down to more seasonal temperatures as we head into next week. Highs will return to the 70s and 80s with lows back down in the 40s and 50s through midweek. Model guidance continues to keep precip chances confined to the Victoria Crossroads and the waters as the front sweeps through the region. Temperatures will gradually warm as we progress through the week likely returning to above normal as onshore flow returns to region late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A mixed bag of VFR to IFR conditions are present over the region tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected across the eastern terminals through mid to late morning though VCT will remain MVFR all day. VFR conditions will persist until conditions deteriorate once again this evening. Western terminals are expected to remain mostly VFR though a low to medium chance for periods of MVFR will exist at COT. Strong surface winds can be expected through the day with gusts around 20-30 knots. The strong LLJ around 45-50 knots will likely lead to LLWS around 2000 feet at a couple sites (ALI and COT). && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Strong (BF-6) southerly flow will continue this morning before relaxing to fresh levels (BF-5) this afternoon and continuing through Thursday. While winds will periodically drop below 20 knots, seas will remain elevated through Thursday which has led to an extension to the Small Craft Advisory. With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-10 ft waves, and 5-7 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be more fresh, with waves dropping to 4-5 ft in the nearshore waters, and down to 5-7 ft in the offshore waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 While relative humidity values will drop to as low as 20-35% across the Brush Country today and 20-40% Thursday, winds will remain relatively weak under 15-20 mph which when combined with Energy Release Component values in the bottom 50th percentile will negate elevated fire weather conditions. Energy Release Components can be expected to generally top out in the 30th to 50th percentile class through the upcoming week. With the presence of daily dry line passages, over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, relative humidity values can be expected the upper teens to 30% range. 20 ft winds aloft are expected to generally remain under 20 kts, though with relative humidity values remaining so low the fire risk will be limited through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 89 73 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 71 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 72 84 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 72 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225235 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 415 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today, bringing seasonal temperatures. Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday into Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives Sunday into Sunday night as a cold front moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for widespread frost Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cooler this morning with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Early morning sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery showed cirrus building into the area from the W. Cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E this morning. Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the mid-upper 30s N/NE to the mid 40s SW. Lows have likely been reached for most given the increasing cloud cover, although temps may drop a degree or two more across E portions of the FA. The high to the N gradually moves E across New England today creating a bit of a CAD setup across the Piedmont. As such, expect mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont today with partly cloudy skies along and E of I-95. Cannot rule out some light drizzle or a brief sprinkle across the Piedmont this afternoon, but confidence is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Given the cloud cover across the Piedmont, temps will likely remain cooler. However, some models have a warm front lifting N by late afternoon into the S portions of the FA with temps potentially warming. Therefore, confidence in temps is lowest across the Piedmont and they may need to be lowered (around 60F as opposed to mid 60s) if the CAD holds on. The onshore flow will also keep temps cooler along the coast and the Eastern Shore with highs in the mid 50s (around 50F at Ocean City, MD). In between these areas, temps likely rise into the lower 60s across N central VA and mid-upper 60s across S central VA. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting a warm front N across the FA. As such, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large ridge builds across the E CONUS, allowing for well above normal temperatures. In fact, Summer-like temperatures are expected Thu and Fri with highs in the low-mid 80s (most in the mid 80s) Thu and mid- upper 80s for most Fri (mid-upper 70s across the far N including the Eastern Shore). Dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s Thu with ample CAPE and shear developing across the area. However, a shortwave passes well to the N of the local area across the Ohio Valley and N VA with no real forcing for showers/storms across the local area. As such, most models keep the local area dry Thu. However, a few models indicate the potential for the forcing to be a touch farther S with storms potentially moving across far N portions of the FA Thu afternoon into Thu evening. As such, only have 15-30% PoPs across this area. However, given the environment, if storms do develop, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. As such, SPC has this area under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms Thu with a slight risk (level 2/5) bordering the N portions of the FA and including all of N VA. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-medium. For now, have 40-50% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Otherwise, a sharp temperature gradient is possible across N portions of the FA behind the front Fri with highs in the 70s NE (possibly cooler) whereas temps S of the front likely rise into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday. - Widespread showers and storms are possible Sunday. - Cooler conditions arrive early next week with widespread frost possible Tuesday night. A large ridge remains in place across the E CONUS this weekend with a large, stationary front located W of the Appalachians. As such, expect well above normal temps to continue with highs in the mid- upper 80s S and 70s NE Sat and mid-upper 80s Sun (most in the upper 80s). A warm front lifts N across the area Sat. However, it may not lift N in time for the Eastern Shore to see much warming with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and low-mid 70s elsewhere. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected Sat apart from a few light showers across N portions of the FA early in the day. Mostly cloudy skies linger across the Eastern Shore with partly cloudy skies elsewhere by the afternoon. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with widespread upper 80s possible. The cold front finally begins to approach from the W Sun night with widespread showers and storms possible ahead of the front Sun afternoon into Sun night. Showers may linger across SE portions of the FA into Mon evening. Behind the front, dry weather returns with temps cooling drastically. Highs are only expected to range from the mid-upper 60s for most Mon and in the mid-upper 50s N to around 60F S Tue. Lows will also cool with lows Mon night in the upper 30s NW to upper 40s SE. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread lows in the low-mid 30s are possible along with widespread frost. The NBM even has some portions of the FA dropping below freezing. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... Cirrus build in from W to E into this morning with mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont through the day. CIGs gradually lower by late this morning into this afternoon from SW to NE as stratus move in (CIGs generally 4000-8000 ft). CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight with MVFR CIGs pushing in from SW to NE. IFR CIGs are expected across the Piedmont to RIC after 6z Thu. Otherwise, remaining dry apart from some occasional light drizzle or sprinkles across the Piedmont mainly this evening into tonight. Light E winds early this morning become ESE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt by this afternoon, becoming SE this evening. Outlook: A warm front lifts north through the region tonight, bringing widespread cloud cover and MVFR/IFR CIGs. VFR conditions should return areawide by Thursday afternoon, followed by possible flight restrictions again Thursday night. There is also a minimal chance of showers later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region from the NW. This cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back N Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. 1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt. Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to ~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn, and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around 3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft (highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW wind from mixing over adjacent land areas. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225234 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Well above normal temperatures and breezy to windy conditions are expected today through Thursday across Deep South Texas. A 500mb trough continues to deepen into the Desert SW with a series of surface low pressure systems swinging through the Southern Plains, this will maintain dry conditions locally with an enhanced pressure gradient, setting up strong LLJs along the lower Texas coast, with 45 to 55 kts at 850mb. DESI probabilities nudge above 70 percent for wind gusts over 40 mph through this morning across the lower valley and lower Texas coast, less than 30 percent for wind gusts over 45 mph, with sustained winds likely falling below 30 mph. Still, a brief Wind Advisory may be needed from 9 or 10 AM through 1 or 2 PM across Cameron County if stronger winds do mix down to the surface after sunrise. For winds, ran with a blend of NBM75 and NBM90 for inland areas today through Thursday, hand editing across Cameron County where necessary. Winds should remain breezy overnight and increase once again into Thursday afternoon, with gusts to 35 mph. Highs range from the low to mid 90s east into the low 100s west today, only dropping a couple of degrees on Thursday, mainly east. If winds turn more SSW this morning into this afternoon, temperatures will rise quickly across the lower valley due to downsloping and mid to upper 90s may be achievable. There is a high risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast until further notice. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Key Messages: * Unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions are expected to take place Thursday night through Friday; widespread moderate Heat Risk is expected on Friday with heat indices between 100-105F degrees. * A cold front passes through on Saturday; isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible along with gusty winds out of the northeast. * Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool temperatures are expected beginning Saturday night into Sunday. * Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to persist through the weekend, before improving early next week. A changeable weather pattern is expected to take shape during the extended. A sfc cold front will be the main driver in this changeable pattern. Ahead of the cold frontal passage on Saturday, unseasonably warm, dry, and windy conditions will take place across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Behind the cold front, unseasonably cool conditions will occur. We start off the long-term period Thursday night where a mid-upper trough will be situated over the Southwestern U.S. As this feature gradually shifts eastward, it will drive a sfc cold front southeastward into Texas and towards Deep South Texas over the weekend and into next week. Before the cold front arrives however,southwesterly winds aloft and southeasterly winds at the sfc will result in persistent moist and warm air advection (WAA). Furthermore, an enhanced sfc pressure gradient and strong 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) winds sampled between 45-50 kts will translate to moderately strong south-southeast winds that may warrant the issuance of a Wind Advisory Thursday night into Friday. Given the situation, unseasonably warm temperatures with elevated humidity values will continue Friday into Saturday. Daytime high temperatures on Friday are progged to climb into the 90s across much of Deep South Texas (80s near/along the coast and triple digit heat far northwest across northwestern Zapata County). With dewpoint temps in the 70s, a moderate Heat Risk will be present for much of the region on Friday with heat indices ranging between 100-105F degrees. During the day on Saturday, the aforementioned mid-upper low over the Southwestern U.S. will continue to translate eastward and will help to drive a cold front south- southeastward through Deep South Texas. Just before the cold front arrives, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s (slightly cooler than Friday). While the cold front is expected to be mainly dry due to limited instability and moisture, a few showers and thunderstorms are possible along the cold front. Behind the cold fropa, cooler and drier than normal conditions are expected. Sunday and Monday will be amongst the coolest days of the week with high temperatures in the 70s across the region. Overnight lows are also expected to be near normal levels, but maybe slightly cooler than normal. Overnight lows are expected to climb into the Saturday night and Sunday night are expected to be in the 50s across much of the area. Monday night is expected to be the coolest night of the period with overnight lows in the upper 40s across the Northern Ranchlands and the low to mid 50s along the Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures look to rebound Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs in the 70s and 80s returning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR to VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday morning with a strong 45 to 50 kt low level jet working west to east into early Wednesday afternoon. VFR ceilings are expected by mid-morning with stronger wind gusts mixing towards the surface. AWWs may be needed this morning into this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions likely persist through tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Now through Thursday....An enhanced pressure gradient due to low pressure across the Southern Plains and northern Mexico will maintain elevated winds across all coastal waters, driving elevated seas and adverse marine conditions. Small Craft Advisories have been extended and will likely continue until further notice. Thursday night through Wednesday....Strong south-southeast winds ahead of the cold front will result in adverse to hazardous marine conditions Thursday night through Friday. Following the cold frontal passage on Saturday, strong northerly winds are expected to develop leading to continued adverse to hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions due to these strong winds and elevated seas will persist from Thursday night through the weekend. By Monday, these winds are expected to subside giving way to moderate seas. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, favorable marine conditions are finally expected with low to moderate seas and winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Due to historical rainfall last week across the mid to lower Rio Grande Valley, water levels across both the Arroyo Colorado and Rio Grande remain elevated and both the main floodway and north floodway are flowing. The Arroyo Colorado at the HAGT2 gauge in Harlingen is reporting 18.03 ft and falling. The gauge in Rio Hondo, ACHT2, is reporting 12.62 ft and falling. The Rio Grande near San Benito, SBNT2, reached action stage of 44.0 ft around 12 PM Friday and crested at 54.04 ft early Sunday morning, just shy of minor flood stage at 55.0 ft. Water levels at San Benito have fallen to 49.10 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 44.0 ft this afternoon. The Rio Grande at Lower Brownsville, LOBT2, reached action stage of 24.0 ft around 5 PM Monday afternoon, and crested at 24.71 ft Tuesday afternoon. Water levels at Lower Brownsville have fallen to 24.56 ft and are expected to fall back below action stage of 24.0 ft late this afternoon or early this evening. The main floodway through Weslaco at WSLT2 is at 18.40 ft and falling, with the north floodway near Sebastian at SBST2 at 12.03 ft and falling. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 75 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 73 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 74 82 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 73 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225233 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:18 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 413 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will be lifting northwards across the region today. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Early this morning: Widespread stratus and areas of fog, much of which will be dense as we start the day. Based on observations, trends, and most of the guidance, we have a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for all but the Charleston Tri-County region. Those locations have a little more wind off the surface, and a less pronounced inversion than elsewhere. The Dense Fog Advisory goes through 9 AM, and all fog should have dissipated by 10 AM when the inversion breaks. For today: Moisture convergence and a modest amount of instability off the coast will generate isolated showers and t-storms. While we can`t rule out some of that activity making it onshore, the better probabilities remain over the Atlantic. We`ll amend the forecast if necessary. Meanwhile, the large scale pattern features a strengthening 500 hPa ridge centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda, allowing us to have a southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a warm front will lift of the area this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the northeast and east thereafter. This will allow for a fairly decent sea breeze to form during midday as it progresses inland. By late afternoon, with the sea breeze inland from I-95, it will encounter a fairly decent environment for isolated to perhaps showers and t-storms. MUCAPE is expected to be as great as 1500-2500 J/kg, overlapped by a region where there is a 30-50% probability of max 2-5 km updraft strength of greater than 20 m/sec. We have 20-30% PoPs as a result. Although insolation is cut down by the morning fog/stratus, 850 hPa temps reach 15-17C this afternoon. This supports highs in the lower and middle 80s for most communities. With a southeasterly sea breeze around 15 mph, coastal sections will be cooler and in the 70s. Tonight: With the loss of diurnal heating and the lack of forcing, showers and t-storms will quickly fade during the early and middle evening hours, and the rest of the night will be rainfree. The mid level ridge slowly starts exp[anding west and northwest, and heights locally begin a slow climb, while a large region of Atlantic high pressure encompasses the local counties. While there could be a little fog where earlier rain occurs, given 15-20 kt of 1000 mb geostrophic winds, no mention is required as of this time. Those winds will prevent full decoupling over most of the region, and that along with a south- southeast low level flow will limit minimum temps to just the middle 60s, or around 15F above climo. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Warm/hot temperatures are the main story for the short term. Upper level ridging strengthens on Thursday and again on Friday, and with situational awareness tables (ESATs) showing record high 500 hPa geopotential heights occurring in relation to 30-year normals, warm/hot temperatures are expected. ESATs also show temperatures at 850 hPa over the 90th percentile of climatology are expected, resulting in afternoon highs in the lower to upper 80s for inland areas, and mid 70s to lower 80s along the coast. Friday is looking to be a degree or two warmer given the continued strengthening of the upper level ridge, with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s for inland areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s along the coast. The good news? These temperatures will be brought down to the surface by mixy winds, so expect at least a slight breeze to help cool-down. Can`t rule out some 90 degree temperatures on Thursday, as NBM probabilities show 20-30% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 50-70% range for inland GA counties. Probabilities increase on Friday, with NBM probabilities show 30-50% chances across inland SC counties, reaching up into the 60-80% range for inland GA counties. The additional good news is the afternoon sea-breeze will be coming ashore in the mid/late afternoon hours, which will help cool the region back down again. Saturday will begin to see the weakening/shifting of the upper level ridge axis, but given the lack of a fresh airmass expect a near carbon copy of Friday for Saturday. Overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday fall into the mid to upper 60s. Record high daily maximums may occur on Saturday, though the current forecast falls about 2 degrees shy at the Charleston airport. Record high daily minimums look much more likely, with the current forecast within 2-3 degrees Thursday-Sunday, but is going to be largely dependent on the strength of the afternoon sea-breeze. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong upper level wave moves out of the Ontario providence Sunday into Monday, but before that reaches the area another day with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected. Relief is in sight as the strong aforementioned wave is accompanied by a surface high pressure moving into the central plains, which will help send a cold front towards the region sometime Sunday/Monday. Scattered showers are expected prior to the frontal passage, with the NBM bringing chances (20-30%) for scattered showers starting late Sunday afternoon, though the bulk of the rain is expected Monday morning into the afternoon hours as the front pushes. NBM does seem to hang onto the chances for rainfall for too long, but looking at the ensembles this largely due to the timing different amongst the models. Current forecasted highs on Monday are in the lower/mid 70s, falling into the upper 60s lower 70s on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: It looks like the worst of the stratus and fog will stay to the south and southwest of the terminals into Wednesday morning. But even so, MVFR or possible IFR will occur until around 1330Z, with a moisture trapped beneath a 1-2C inversion. Conditions return to VFR thereafter as the inversion climbs. We`ll have to keep watch for a return of flight restrictions later tonight. Meanwhile, as a warm front lifts past these sites this morning, there could be a few showers around the area. Coverage is too small to include anything at this time. KSAV: There is already low ceilings as we begin the 06Z TAF cycle, and with a stronger inversion than those sites to the north, we anticipate even worse conditions will develop, potentially down near airfield mins. While there is improving ceilings/visibilities by 1330Z, it`ll take until around 16Z before VFR returns. Flight restrictions could return again later tonight. With the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon, gusty S-SE winds will peak around 18-22 kt until close to sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions may be possible Thursday morning due to both sea and land fog, with patchy MVFR/IFR vsbys possible. After that, generally quiet aviation conditions are expected through Sunday. && .MARINE... Today: A warm front will lift north of the waters this morning, with strong high pressure to expand in from the NE and E the rest of the day. The local gradient will tighten somewhat, and that along with the sea breeze will result in winds veering to the SE as high as 10-15 or 15 kt. Charleston Harbor will experience some gusts around 20 kt this afternoon due to deeper mixing due to the nearby warmer land mass. Seas will be a mix of wind driven waves and swells, climbing to 2-4 feet. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters from Edisto Beach south to the Altamaha River. Th other waters will also experience some fog, but there is too much wind for a Dense Fog Advisory. Some of the fog could persist into the late morning and even the afternoon. Mariners can also expect a few showers and t-storms, especially this morning. Although some guidance recently supports afternoon activity. Tonight: High pressure will control the weather across the area, and with increasing low level winds, surface winds will also respond. SE winds will climb up to another 5 kt or so, except holding at similar speeds with less gustiness in Charleston Harbor. Seas build up to another foot given the higher winds. Rip Currents: A modest onshore wind, and swells around 3 feet every 10 seconds, will result in a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at all beaches today. Thursday: Moderate risk for rip currents continues on Thursday, with near-shore winds remaining out of the south-southeast at around 10- 12 knots, bringing waves of 3-4 feet into the beach zones every 8-10 seconds. Thursday - Saturday: Surface high pressure off to our east, with generally quiet marine conditions forecasted into the weekend, with winds around 10 knots and seas averaging 3 to 4 ft in the near-shore waters, fairly consistently near 4 feet in the offshore Georgia zone Sunday: The surface pressure gradient begins to rise overnight into Sunday, remaining elevated throughout the day. Currently have winds remaining below small craft criteria, but something to keep an eye on as we get closer to the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ040-042- 043-047>049-051. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ352-354. && $$ |
| #1225232 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today, bringing seasonal temperatures. Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and storm chances increase Thursday into Friday as a backdoor cold front moves into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and storms arrives Sunday into Sunday night as a cold front moves across the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early next week with the potential for widespread frost Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cooler this morning with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. - Partly to mostly cloudy and seasonable today. Early morning sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Satellite imagery showed cirrus building into the area from the W. Cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E this morning. Temps as of 320 AM ranged from the mid-upper 30s N/NE to the mid 40s SW. Lows have likely been reached for most given the increasing cloud cover, although temps may drop a degree or two more across E portions of the FA. The high to the N gradually moves E across New England today creating a bit of a CAD setup across the Piedmont. As such, expect mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont today with partly cloudy skies along and E of I-95. Cannot rule out some light drizzle or a brief sprinkle across the Piedmont this afternoon, but confidence is too low for mentionable PoPs at this time. Given the cloud cover across the Piedmont, temps will likely remain cooler. However, some models have a warm front lifting N by late afternoon into the S portions of the FA with temps potentially warming. Therefore, confidence in temps is lowest across the Piedmont and they may need to be lowered (around 60F as opposed to mid 60s) if the CAD holds on. The onshore flow will also keep temps cooler along the coast and the Eastern Shore with highs in the mid 50s (around 50F at Ocean City, MD). In between these areas, temps likely rise into the lower 60s across N central VA and mid-upper 60s across S central VA. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes tonight, lifting a warm front N across the FA. As such, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower 60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well with temps warming to the mid-upper 60s by sunrise Thu. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. - Shower/storm chances increase by Friday. Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a large ridge builds across the E CONUS, allowing for well above normal temperatures. In fact, Summer-like temperatures are expected Thu and Fri with highs in the low-mid 80s (most in the mid 80s) Thu and mid- upper 80s for most Fri (mid-upper 70s across the far N including the Eastern Shore). Dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s Thu with ample CAPE and shear developing across the area. However, a shortwave passes well to the N of the local area across the Ohio Valley and N VA with no real forcing for showers/storms across the local area. As such, most models keep the local area dry Thu. However, a few models indicate the potential for the forcing to be a touch farther S with storms potentially moving across far N portions of the FA Thu afternoon into Thu evening. As such, only have 15-30% PoPs across this area. However, given the environment, if storms do develop, they would have the potential to become strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. As such, SPC has this area under a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms Thu with a slight risk (level 2/5) bordering the N portions of the FA and including all of N VA. Otherwise, Thu will be breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph. A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri before stalling. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front. However, confidence is only low-medium. For now, have 40-50% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper) 60s. Otherwise, a sharp temperature gradient is possible across N portions of the FA behind the front Fri with highs in the 70s NE (possibly cooler) whereas temps S of the front likely rise into the mid-upper 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures continue through the weekend. - A better chance of showers and thunderstorms potentially arrives late Sunday/Sunday night. - Much cooler weather appears likely early next week. The latest 12z GEFS and Euro Model are in decent agreement with a strong ridge staying in place through the weekend. This ridge will allow temperatures to warm up into the middle 80s. By the end of the weekend the ridge is expected to break down Due to a strong trough coming out of the north. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front from Friday is expected to lift north Saturday and than further north Sunday. This is due to a strong system that is expected to make its way across the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures should generally remain above seasonal averages into the weekend, aside from locally cooler temperatures over the Eastern Shore Saturday with onshore flow. Saturday should be mostly dry with low-end shower chances across northern portions of the area. A better chc of showers/tstms potentially arrives Sunday/Sunday night. A more significant pattern change is likely starting early next week as the cold front finally crosses the area while a deep upper trough settles over eastern North America. Highs likely drop back down to near seasonal averages by next Monday with shower chances continuing through the first part of the day, before drier air arrives from the NW later in the day. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... Cirrus build in from W to E into this morning with mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont through the day. CIGs gradually lower by late this morning into this afternoon from SW to NE as stratus move in (CIGs generally 4000-8000 ft). CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight with MVFR CIGs pushing in from SW to NE. IFR CIGs are expected across the Piedmont to RIC after 6z Thu. Otherwise, remaining dry apart from some occasional light drizzle or sprinkles across the Piedmont mainly this evening into tonight. Light E winds early this morning become ESE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt by this afternoon, becoming SE this evening. Outlook: A warm front lifts north through the region tonight, bringing widespread cloud cover and MVFR/IFR CIGs. VFR conditions should return areawide by Thursday afternoon, followed by possible flight restrictions again Thursday night. There is also a minimal chance of showers later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region from the NW. This cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back N Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and evening. - SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an increasing southerly wind and building seas. - Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front. 1033mb high pressure is centered over southwest QB early this morning, and extends southward toward the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is generally E to ENE 5-10kt, and locally 10-15kt. Seas range from 3-4ft S, to ~3ft N, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. High pressure shifts SE toward New England today and builds to ~1035mb, before settling off the New England coast by tonight. The wind remains E this morning, and then becomes E to ESE this aftn, and then SE by this evening, before becoming S tonight. The pressure gradient tightens by this aftn and evening, and this combined with some channeling effects with an ESE to SE wind direction should result in wind speeds increasing to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25kt for the Ches. Bay and rivers. Local wind probabilities for sustained wind of 18kt ramp up to 60-90% from 17-20z today, show a bit of a lull around 00z, and then back to 60-80% through 05z. SCAs have been issued for the lower Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM today through 05z/1AM Thu, the middle Ches. Bay from 17z/1PM through 08z/4AM, and the rivers from 17z/1PM to 02z/10PM. Waves build to 2-3ft, and around 3ft at the mouth of the Ches. Bay. By later tonight into Thursday, a S wind will increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the ocean N of Parramore Is., which will result in seas building to 4-6ft (highest offshore). Therefore, SCAs have been issued N of Parramore Is. from 05z/1AM Thu to 22z/6PM Thu. S of Parramore Is., expect an E to ESE wind of 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt that will become SE this evening, and S by tonight, along with 3-4ft seas. Additional low-end SCAs are possible Thursday, mainly across the rivers, Currituck Sound, and western/southern shore of the Ches. Bay due to a gusty SW wind from mixing over adjacent land areas. High pressure settles off the Southeast coast Thursday into Friday. The wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft. A backdoor cold front slowly slides S along the coast Friday, before settling in vicinity of the VA/NC border Friday night. A S to SW wind will diminish ahead of the front, and shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday night, with 1-2ft waves in the Ches. Bay. The backdoor front lifts back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650- 652. && $$ |
| #1225230 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:42 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 340 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Onshore flow continues today with high pressure offshore. The lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm front tonight with much above normal warmth arriving for Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying another cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure ridging into the area from the north will continue to bring onshore flow today into tonight. The result will be partly to mostly cloudy skies and it isn`t impossible that there could be a few light showers around. Highs today will reach mid to upper 70s with cooler numbers nearer the ocean. Lows tonight will generally be in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure to the east and upper level ridging off of the southeastern Atlantic coast will serve as the catalyst for a humid, late-week warmup. Highs on Thursday will be well above normal, many areas will likely climb into the mid 80s. A sea breeze near the coast will keep temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 along the coast. Breezy behind a strong afternoon sea breeze. Southerly winds overnight will keep dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warmer on Friday and Saturday as the ridge strengthens. Inland areas have a shot at seeing their first 90 degree high of the year on Friday and each day after. This would be nearly a month before the average first 90 degree day of May 2nd for FLO/LBT. The best chance of seeing 90 degrees will be on Sunday as warm air advection increases ahead of the next cold front. Cooler on the coast as a strong sea breeze develops, keeping coastal temperatures in the mid and upper 70s to around 80. Humid each day with dew points solidly in the 60s. A cold front approaches the area late Sunday into Monday. This initial front will bring a chance of showers late Sunday. Some weak instability inland could produce an isolated thunderstorm or two. The shortwave accompanying the cold front will weaken as it lifts northward late Sunday into Monday. A secondary shortwave will approach the area on Monday. Lift will be stronger and more pronounced with the second wave and this should be the best chance of showers. Cooler air will follow on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Onshore flow is resulting in the development of clouds in the 500 to 1000 ft range early this morning. All terminals contain at least tempo cigs below 1kft between now and about daybreak. Cigs will gradually lift to VFR conditions with daytime heating but it could take till midday or later, especially inland. Attm, not anticipating a repeat Wed night into Thursday as winds will become more SE-S by the end of the valid taf period. Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR through the period. && .MARINE... Through tonight... E winds to 10 to 15 KT will become SE and continue into tonight. Seas will run 3 to 4 FT. Thursday through Sunday... High pressure will maintain southerly winds between 10-15 knots through the weekend. The pressure gradient will increase late this weekend ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 knots will be possible beginning late Sunday, and building seas to 6 feet could become more widespread as a prolonged fetch southerly winds builds the wind wave. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225229 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:39 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler today with continued dry weather, then an approaching warm front will bring a period of light rain tonight into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across the interior tonight. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday with a stalled front possibly bringing a few showers near the south coast Thursday night into early Friday. Unsettled conditions continue this weekend as a frontal system impacts the region, with cooler temperatures Saturday followed by milder conditions Sunday. Drying out early next week as the frontal system exits the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Dry and cool with temps several degrees below normal High pressure over eastern Canada shifts east of New Eng this afternoon. The high pres and assocd low level dry air will keep precip assocd with approaching warm front mostly to the west through the day, with just a low risk a few light showers may spill into the Berkshires toward evening. Sunshine will give way to thickening afternoon clouds in developing warm advection pattern. Chilly airmass across SNE as 925 mb temps this afternoon range from near 0C CT valley to -4C across eastern MA. Highs will range from near 40 eastern MA coast to upper 40s CT valley. Some locations along the immediate eastern MA coast may remain in the upper 30s with onshore flow. Normal highs are 50-55. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Periods of rain developing tonight into Thu morning * Pockets of mixed wintry precip tonight across the interior with spotty freezing rain possible over the higher elevations. Any travel impacts will be limited * Milder Thu with rain becoming more spotty in the afternoon Approaching warm front with good moisture advection aided by modest low level jet will result in periods of light precip developing tonight into Thu morning as PWATs increase to over 1.25". Axis of the 850 mb jet will be to the north where best forcing for ascent and heaviest precip will be. However, enough forcing combined with deep moisture through the column for precip tonight, with steadiest across northern MA closest to best forcing, with more rain more scattered near the south coast. Ptype in the coastal plain will be all rain, but there will be some ptype issues in the interior as the precip moves in tonight. Soundings show a pronounced warm nose 800-700 mb with low level cold air below supportive of pockets of sleet, and spotty freezing rain possible over northern MA higher elevations where temps will wet bulb down to 32F for a time. Given warm ground and marginal temps, any travel impacts will be limited and impacting a small area so no advisories. Temps will rise above freezing before daybreak across higher terrain so not expecting any impacts for the morning commute. Periods of rain will linger into Thu morning, then should become more spotty in the afternoon as the warm front lifts to the north. Increasing SW flow will bring milder air with highs reaching the 60s away from the south coast, with 50s along the south coast. 925 mb temps are quite mild reaching 14-16C by late in the day, but low level inversion will limit mixing. However, if some breaks of sun can develop in the afternoon, temps could reach 70+ in portions of the CT valley but confidence is low. Low level jet will result in gusty SW winds developing. The low level inversion will prevent the stronger winds from mixing down but the potential exists for a few 30-40 mph gusts, especially inland from the immediate south coast where milder temps will help to erode the inversion. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long Term Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day on Friday * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing warmth and shower chances Saturday night into Sunday * Trending cooler again early next week Thursday night and Friday A dry cold front pushes through the region Thursday night into Friday brining abnormally high 925 hPa temps near 15C down to values closer to normal for early April in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. This front will be accompanied by a dry northwest flow that will support efficient mixing on Friday afternoon. As a result we can expect a pleasant/sunny early spring afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s across southern New England. Expect the warmest temperatures in east/southeast MA where downsloping on northwest flow may support temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A 70 degree observation can`t be ruled out with ensemble probabilities suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of temperatures greater than 69 degrees on Friday afternoon. The warmth will be accompanied by a northwest breeze with some gusts of 20 mph possible across the region. Saturday through Sunday night. The warmth from Friday quickly cools down on Saturday as high pressure is forecast to build north and east of southern New England. This will allow a backdoor cold front to advect cooler air back into the region with 925 hPa temps dipping near the freezing mark by Saturday morning. This will support a cool/raw day with highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s for much of southern New England. Saturday will as mark the beginning of a wet/unsettled period. As the aforementioned area of high pressure continues to shift east, return flow from the south will support WAA driven showers over southern New England likely beginning Saturday afternoon. Expect precipitation to persist through Sunday as the associated low-pressure system traverses over The Northeast Saturday night through Sunday evening. As warm sector air lifts over the region on Sunday, 925 hPa temps rise dramatically to the 15 to 20C range. So while Sunday is expected to be wet/rainy, it will also be on the warm/humid side with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Ensemble mean precipitation forecasts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night are ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch across southern New England. Some of this precip may come in the form of convective showers Sunday night as the associated cold front drives the warm sector air out of the region. Model derived CAPE values are unimpressive at this time, but with ensemble mean SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg, a few showers could have a rumble of thunder, particularly along the south coast. Monday and Tuesday Trending drier and more seasonable on Monday as a cold front ushers a drier air mass over the southern New England. Ensemble mean high temperatures on Monday afternoon currently ranging from the mid to upper 50s across southern New England which is close to normal for this time of year. Model spread increases on Tuesday with the ECMWF/CMC models supporting a somewhat strong CAA pattern that would feature high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s on Tuesday. The GFS is less aggressive with cooler air and keeps high temps in the mid to upper 40s next Tuesday. Stay tuned for further details... && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 12z...High confidence. VFR, dry weather and diminishing winds. Today...High Confidence VFR. NE wind 5-10 kt becoming SE-S in the afternoon. Tonight...Moderate Confidence. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but risk for -PL across the interior with pockets of -FZRA higher elevations. Thursday...Moderate Confidence Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA in the morning becoming more spotty in the afternoon. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25-35 kt developing. BOS TAF...High confidence. BDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today...High confidence. Winds below SCA. N-NE wind will become SE this afternoon. Hazardous seas over the outer waters will subside below 5 ft this afternoon. Tonight and Thursday...High confidence. Increasing southerly winds late tonight becoming SW Thursday. Modest low level jet over the waters but strong low level inversion will prevent stronger winds from mixing down. Expect gusts to 30 kt Thu. SCA will be needed. Spotty light rain tonight into Thu. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. && $$ |
| #1225228 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 324 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 225 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight. While skies remain mostly clear early this morning, clouds will be increasing through the day. Despite rising low-level thicknesses, the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s (10-15 deg above normal for early April). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM Wed... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday through Sunday...No real change to the forecast through Sunday as upper ridging remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard into this weekend. Upper flow becomes amplified this weekend as well as a deepening positively tilted upper trough moves into the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards and will eventually become centered over the Eastern Seaboard early next week. Broad upper trough then remains over the Eastern Seaboard through much of next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs through Sun with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Fri, Sat, and Sun) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps this weekend and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to-upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs, mainly along the OBX and offshore waters. A backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border Friday night and then lifts N`wards as a warm front on Sat. This front may bring a few light showers and a rumble of thunder or two to the region, mainly north of Hwy 264 which is where I have kept SChc to Chc PoPs in place. We dry out Sat into Sun as continued WAA remains in place out ahead of an approaching cold front. Monday through midweek next week... Next significant cold front then approaches and tracks across the region Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Guidance has come into better agreement over the last few days and thus confidence in when the best chances to see rain have increased as well. Given the latest trends, started to bring shower and isolated thunderstorm activity into the Coastal Plain Sunday afternoon and evening with this activity spreading E`wards overnight towards the coast. Highest chances to see rain looks to be late overnight Sun into Mon morning and have thus increased PoP`s to likely during this timeframe. Cold front pushes offshore by Mon evening with a much cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind this front as high pressure builds in from the north and west on Tue. Temps knock down closer to just below normal by Tue and remain that way through midweek. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Wed...VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low- level moistening within the developing easterly flow today, supporting the risk for a prolonged period of sub-VFR cigs this afternoon into tonight. IFR cigs will be possible overnight, though with southerly flow developing will keep at MVFR for now. A few isolated showers will be possible as well, with best chances overnight with advancing warm front. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... No real changes for the long term forecast as we expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there is potential for the outer central and southern waters to briefly build to 6 ft overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 320 AM Wed... High pressure will remain centered off the coast through the period gradually pushing further offshore by Sun with the approach of a cold front. We start the period out with 10-15 kt S`rly winds and 3-5 ft ft seas across our waters. Winds are then forecast to increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between high pressure offshore and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through Sat as well with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. As we get into Sun a strong cold front then approaches from the west, once again tightening the pressure gradient and increasing S-SW`rly winds to 20- 25 kts with gusts up around 30 kts across just about all the waters. Seas also increase up to 4-6 ft on Sun as well bringing a return to at least SCA conditions to our waters. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225226 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:21 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 309 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds this morning will eventually give way to partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Interestingly, a few models develop isolated convection across the northeast corner of the forecast area in association with some weak surface convergence. Confidence is not high on this, but if convection were to occur, then gusty convective winds would be possible due to high DCAPE this afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather will prevail. High temperatures will vary across the region with the coolest temperatures this afternoon along the coast with onshore flow from the relatively cooler water. Away from the coast, high temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s, with a few upper 80s to near 90 possible across the eastern part of the area. Overnight lows tonight will generally be in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure to our east will keep our weather warm and dry to start the term. An upper level trough well to our northwest with an accompanying cold front will create continue the breezy conditions from Wednesday due to the tight pressure gradient. The cold front will not approach the region as the upper level support will be separated from the front, stalling it along the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. Deep layer ridging off the east coast of Florida will be strong enough to block the system through the weekend. Until then, expect warming temperatures with near record highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows will be muggy in the mid to upper 60s. The pattern changes when a new shortwave trough develops to our west late this weekend and pushes eastward, as the high pressure also moves off to the east. This would move the previously mentioned frontal system over to the eastern third of the U.S. by Sunday into Monday bringing our next chance for rain, and cooler temperatures to follow. PoPs range around 50-60 percent Sunday evening through Monday. Forecast PWATs are about 1.5-2" for this event, so heavy rainfall is possible. However, the progressiveness of the front should deter any prolonged flooding from occurring. Yet, minor urban and low-lying areas could experience flash flooding. The WPC for Day 5 (Sunday) has highlighted for areas along and west of the Tifton to Port St Joe line in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall. From Albany to Panama City line and west is included in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall. A widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall can be expected for these regions from Sunday through Monday. Regarding any severe weather, the potential is not zero but, the amount of instability available will be waning as the system moves east Sunday night into Monday. Behind the front, drier and cooler air will enter the region with temperatures cooling to the upper 60s/low 70s for the highs, and lows will fall to the 50s. There is still much uncertainty regarding the timing of the front and potential hazards, yet we will continue to monitor and check back for further updates. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid- morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today. Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning into the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots expected. Winds will diminish again this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog will remain over the marine zones for several hours this morning. We can expect fog to develop at times for the next few days. Southerly flow will increase through the week, leading to Cautionary level conditions prevailing into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mainly dry weather is expected for the rest of the week, outside of a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of south-central Georgia this afternoon. MinRH values are forecast to remain above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast today and Thursday away from the coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 306 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Next chance for rain will be late this weekend into the start of next week. The WPC has highlighted our region in a Marginal (1 of 4) and Slight (2 of 4) risk for Excessive rainfall for Sunday. Expect 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts possible. Mainly flash flooding is the concern due to the high PWATs of nearly 2 inches. This may cause some river rises, however our rivers are in good condition. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 67 84 67 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 81 68 80 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 67 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 88 67 88 66 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 90 68 90 67 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 89 67 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 68 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1225224 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 247 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Dense fog advisory through mid morning for coastal Levy and Citrus counties. The advisory may need to be extended inland in the next few hours, with the main impact area looking like inland Levy county. High amplitude energetic pattern across the CONUS with a deep trough over the western U.S. which is pumping up a strong downstream U/L ridge over the Florida peninsula. The overall L/W pattern will gradually shift east over the next several days as strong westerlies push under a strong Gulf of Alaska low. This will cause a sharp ridge to develop over the western U.S. and western Canada over the weekend, and will nudge what was the west coast trough eastward...which will then extend from Hudson Bay to the Southern Plains. The downstream ridge which was over Florida will gradually shift to the western Atlantic. Early next week, the slow progression will continue with the trough making its way toward the east coast...with several U/L disturbances riding through the flow. At the surface, high pressure over the western Atlantic will hold across the Florida peninsula through the remainder of the week and much of the weekend. Gradient will tighten today with rather gusty southeast winds developing. Combination of high pressure surface and aloft will create strong subsidence over the forecast area for the next several days which will lead to mostly clear skies and very warm temperatures...topping out in the lower 90s in many areas away from the coast each afternoon. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday, the U/L ridge will pull away from the region and the U/L trough will approach from the west. An associated cold front will slowly push across west central and southwest Florida Monday and Monday night with a band of showers and thunderstorms...with showers/thunderstorms possibly lingering into Tuesday across the southern forecast area. Although it`s a bit early, can`t rule out a few strong storms over the nature coast on Monday. With the loss of daytime heating combined with the main U/L support beginning to lift away from the region, thunderstorm activity should weaken Monday night as the storms push across the remainder of west central and southwest Florida. High pressure will build back over the forecast area in the wake of the front with much cooler drier air advecting across the region. Temperature will drop several degrees below climatic normals across the nature coast...and near climatic normals central and south. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Although VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies, can`t rule out very localized brief MVFR VSBYs due to fog around sunrise which could possibly impact LAL or PGD. Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will develop at all terminals late this morning which will persist through the afternoon...subsiding around sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of dense fog will be possible over the northern waters mainly along the Levy/Citrus counties coastlines through mid morning. The fog is expected to lift as winds increase from the southeast today, but the winds are expected to remain below cautionary levels. Can`t rule out an evening easterly surge around sunset which could create brief winds to cautionary levels, mainly on the near shore waters which could last for several hours before weakening after midnight. High pressure will hold over the waters into the weekend with continued southeast winds each day...again remaining below cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days. The very warm temperatures will cause afternoon relative humidity values to drop into the 40s for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 92 73 92 72 / 10 10 0 0 FMY 92 72 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 92 71 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 92 66 92 66 / 10 10 0 0 SPG 87 73 87 72 / 0 10 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM- Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ |
| #1225222 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 234 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tonight) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Low level moisture is expected to result in low stratus and fog this morning. Have issued a dense fog advisory for areas most likely to experience low visibilities based on latest guidance and current satellite and observations. This area may need to be expanded. Morning fog and stratus will lift after sunrise this morning. Surface high pressure will be located to the northeast through Tonight. This pattern will result in a prevailing flow from the southeast. A combination of a weak upper wave, and diurnal instability will lead to a few thunderstorms this afternoon inland. The thunderstorms which do develop will move further inland through the afternoon with the flow. Due to the onshore flow, temperatures will range from east to west Today, with highs in the lower 80s along the Atlantic coast, to the lower 90s inland. Convection will dissipate this evening, with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the mid to upper 60s will be common Tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 HOT and dry with near record high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland each day. An unseasonably strong 500 mb ridge center dominates just east of the FL Atlantic coast with the low level ridge axis extending from a center near Bermuda to across the local forecast area. Strong subsidence will bring dry weather, with a prevailing east coast sea breeze regime keeping coastal locations `cooler` with highs in the mid 80s. Gusty ESE winds of 20-30 mph will impact locations locations inland toward the St. Johns River basin each afternoon trailing the east coast sea breeze. Mild overnight low temperatures will range in the 60s with patchy inland fog. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 The heat continues this weekend with strong subsidence in place. The region of hottest daytime highs shifts gradually west to east from Saturday into Sunday as the 1000-500 mb ridge ridge axis shifts farther ESE of the area and stronger SSW steering flow develops. There is high confidence of near record highs continuing Sat & Sun. Gusty WSW winds develop Sunday as the next frontal system approaches from the west with consensus guidance still showing a low (< 30%) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms as early as Sunday evening across inland SE GA, but the bulk of the rainfall will shift west to east across the area Monday. There is the potential for a few stronger storms with this frontal passage. Drier air filters across SE GA into Tuesday in the wake of the frontal passage with a few linger mainly coastal showers possible for NE FL as breezy NNE flow develops into mid-week. A cool down next week trailing the frontal passage with temperatures falling near and below climo values for early April with high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s Tue and lows ranging in the 40s to 50s. At this time, forecast guidance keeps low temperatures above frost potential. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low stratus and fog will affect much of the region this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by noon, with VFR conditions then through the afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible inland this afternoon, but this activity is not expected to affect local TAF sites at this time. The thunderstorms may get close to KGNV, but chance is too low to mention in TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High pressure will be northeast of the region Today and Thursday. A few morning thunderstorms will be possible over the waters, along with potential for fog closer to the coast. The high will become centered more toward the east Friday and Saturday. The high will move away to the east Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This front is forecast to move through Sunday night and Monday bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Rip Currents: High Risk For Rip Currents Through Thursday && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 High inland dispersion today and Thursday for inland locations including the Okefenokee NWR, Osceola NF and Ocala NF with above normal high temperatures near 90 degrees and elevated SE transport winds. A dominant east coast sea breeze is expected each day with mostly dry conditions. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph trailing the sea breeze with gusts up to 30 mph possible, mainly for locations near and east of the I-95 corridor and near St. Johns River basin. Minimum relative humidity will remain above critical values. Inland fog is possible the next couple of nights. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 An early season heat wave begins this week, about 3-4 weeks before the average 90 degree date for our official climate sites. Daily records in the upper 80s to low 90s will be challenged beginning Wed and continuing through Sun. Overnight high minimum temperatures are possible for a few locations as well. The last time our official climate sites saw temperatures at or above 90 degrees was late Sept and early Oct 2024. Last Date of High Temperature 90 deg or above AMG Alma GA 9/30/24 - 90 JAX Jacksonville FL 10/2/24 - 90 CRG Craig Airfield 9/27/24 - 90 GNV Gainesville FL 10/4/24 - 91 Average Date of 90 Degrees Max Temperature AMG Alma GA May 2 JAX Jacksonville FL May 4 CRG Craig Airfield Apr 22 GNV Gainesville FL April 22 Daily Record Max Temperatures & Year Set for Climate Sites 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/6 AMG 88 90 90 90 90 2017 1967 1963 2023 1967 JAX 90 89 90 91 90 2012 2017 2011 2017 1947 CRG 90 90 88 91 87 2012 2006 2012 2017 2022 GNV 92 91 91 90 90 2017 2017 1974 2023 2023 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 89 67 89 66 / 20 10 0 0 SSI 77 68 81 68 / 10 10 0 0 JAX 87 69 89 66 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 83 69 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 91 68 92 65 / 0 10 10 0 OCF 92 68 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for FLZ021-023- 024-035-120-124-220-322-422-522. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138- 233-333. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ132>136- 149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450. && $$ |
| #1225221 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 224 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High shifts offshore today and a weak warm front will lift through the area tonight. High pressure then remains anchored offshore through the end of the week and into the first half of the weekend. The next cold front then impacts the region late this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 225 AM Wed...Latest analysis shows high pressure centered over southern Quebec/Ontario ridging southward through the Mid- Atlantic and into the Carolinas. The high will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the area, gradually advancing northward this afternoon and evening. Model guidance remains insistent on low- level moisture increasing within easterly flow this afternoon and into tonight. While skies remain mostly clear early this morning, clouds will be increasing through the day. Despite rising low-level thicknesses, the increased cloud cover should offset how warm it gets, with highs in the 60s along the Outer Banks and upper 60s to low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 225 AM Wed...Weak warm front will lift northward through the area tonight. While most of the models keep the area mostly dry, there may be enough low level moisture and convergence to support a few isolated showers. Clouds and developing southerly flow will keep it very mild overnight with lows in the 60s (10-15 deg above normal for early April). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM Tue... Key Messages: - Near Record High Temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Thursday through Sunday... Upper ridging remains in place into the weekend, becoming amplified as we get into Sun out ahead of a deepening positively tilted trough in the Plains. This trough then tracks E`wards early next week eventually pushing offshore by midweek. This trough will bring our next frontal boundary across ENC early next week. High pressure ridging in the mid levels and at the surface becomes entrenched offshore and moves little into this weekend. This will continue to promote SW`rly flow at the mid levels and at the surface bringing a steady WAA regime to ENC, thus allowing temps to soar well above normal Thurs and Fri with highs climbing well into the 80s inland (potentially reaching the low 90s on Friday) and mid to upper 70s along the beaches. This is rather anomalous for the time of year with ECMWF EFI values close to the 90th+ percentile for max temps and NAFES surface and 850 mb temp anomolies generally at 1-2 SD above normal. Overnight lows will also be well above average, with temps forecast to drop only as far as the mid-to- upper 60s Thursday-Saturday nights. Forecast continues to show temps to near record Highs for early April (see "Climate Section" for more information). While we will likely remain mo dry across ENC through the end of the workweek a weak mid level shortwave that will be tracking along the northern periphery of the mid level ridging may bring some isolated showers to portions of ENC on Thurs. For now the threat is relatively low so kept PoP`s at SChc at best across the area. Temps look to remain well above normal on Sat and Sun as a backdoor cold front stalls near the NC/VA border and then lifts N`wards as a warm front this weekend. However, once again this front may bring a low end threat for some shower activity and maybe a rumble of thunder or two primarily across areas north of Hwy 264 on Fri night into Sat morning before we dry out on Sun. Once again given the lower end threat kept PoPs at Schc to Chc at best. Early next week...The next cold front then looks to impact the area Sunday night into Monday as strengthening surface low moves through the Mid-Atlantic. Still have a fair spread in the overall evolution of the upper level pattern and how quickly the cold front tracks across the area so once again capped PoP`s at high end Chc for now until we gain better confidence in when the rain threat will occur. Otherwise we do finally cool down Mon into Tue as well with temps falling back closer to normal. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Wed...VFR conditions across the terminals early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest sufficient low- level moistening within the developing easterly flow today, supporting the risk for a prolonged period of sub-VFR cigs this afternoon into tonight. IFR cigs will be possible overnight, though with southerly flow developing will keep at MVFR for now. A few isolated showers will be possible as well, with best chances overnight with advancing warm front. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tue...Expect primarily VFR conditions with steady SW`rly winds across ENC through the rest of the period as high pressure builds into the area. Next significant frontal system expected to impact ENC Sun night into Mon. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 225 AM Wed...Latest obs show E winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt across the outer waters with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure to the north will gradually shift offshore today as front lingers south of the waters. E winds 10-15 kt will continue gusting up to 20 kt at times. Weak warm front will lift back northward through the waters this evening and tonight. This will allow for SE winds 10-15 kt to veer becoming S 10-20 kt. Expect seas to remain mostly 3-5 ft today and tonight...however there is potential for the outer central and southern waters to briefly build to 6 ft overnight. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Tue...High pressure gradually becomes centered offshore allowing winds to veer to a S`rly direction into Thurs. Winds may also increase closer to 15-20 kts with a few gusts up near 25 kts Thurs afternoon and into Friday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens between this high and an approaching front. This front stalls just to the north of our waters allowing the pressure gradient to relax and winds to ease Fri night into Sat down to 10-15 kts. Seas generally remain around 3-5 ft through the period with just a SChc for some showers and thunderstorms Fri night as the front nears the area. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for Thursday 04/03 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for Friday 04/04 LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225219 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:15 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 206 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of patchy fog, some of it dense, may once again develop early this morning across portions of South Florida thanks to very light wind flow and above average low-level moisture. This could result in reduced visibilities in some spots until the early hours of the morning before dissipating as wind flow resumes. More generally speaking, mid-level ridging will continue to build over the Florida peninsula today as surface high strengthens over the western Atlantic. This will keep South Florida under fresh to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds, while a fairly dry air mass sets up aloft. As a result, sensible weather will remain warm and dry through the short term period. A few isolated showers could develop along the sea breeze boundaries each day, but chances remain too low to be mentionable (< 15%). Temperatures will continue to rise each day, with highs along the East Coast metro in the mid 80s, and in the low 90s across southwest FL. With lingering moisture mid-week, there will be potential for heat indices reaching the mid-90s across SW Florida, especially on Wednesday. Temperatures overnight will also remain a few degrees above average, with lows tonight in the low 70s across the East Coast, and upper 60s inland. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly rain-free and warm weather conditions will prevail throughout the remainder of the week as strong mid-level ridging remains in place over the area. High temperatures each day will reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and could potentially rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s across the interior. Models suggest the high could begin to break down late this weekend into next week as a front approaches, ushering in the next bout of precipitation for the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 E/SE winds 5-10 kts early this morning increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts after 14Z. SCT MVFR ceilings throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing southeasterly winds today will begin a period of hazardous marine conditions which should last into the upcoming weekend. Current forecast trends suggest that small craft advisory conditions could begin tonight and last for several days. Winds are forecast to be near 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Increasing onshore winds will result in a high risk for rip currents along the Atlantic coastline through the end of the workweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 0 West Kendall 86 73 87 71 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 73 86 73 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 75 85 73 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 83 74 / 10 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 83 75 83 74 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 87 75 87 74 / 10 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 83 74 83 72 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 84 74 84 73 / 10 10 10 0 Naples 89 72 88 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225218 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:12 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 -Patchy dense fog will be possible late overnight into early Wednesday morning and may reduce visibility less than 1/2 mile in spots. -Warming trend through this week and into the weekend with peak heat indices reaching in the lower 90s west of I-95. -Becoming dry once again mid week with no mentionable rain chances through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Well, our little summer preview of afternoon/evening convection continues out there this evening. ACARS soundings revealed plentiful DCAPE (>1000 J/kg) courtesy of steep lapse rates and dry air aloft. Sea breeze boundary collision was the catalyst for storm development, with the activity currently lined up along I-4. The storm of the day, so far, was over Seminole County with echo tops to 50 KFT. Still the potential for a rogue strong/severe storm through the next couple hours with general lightning storm chances along I-4 corridor ending by late evening. Overnight, will monitor for some patchy fog - the risk is likely greatest near where rain fell today and any wildfires. Boundary-layer winds start to increase late and this may preclude widespread fog formation. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Current-Tonight...Continued warm and humid across ECFL as afternoon maxes remain well above climo in the U80s inland and in the M80s at the coast. Peak heat indices into the low 90s W of I-95. The pressure gradient is weak with light SWRLY winds transitioning onshore at the coast this afternoon, with this trend slowly pushing inland thru late day and early evening, quicker inland across the Treasure Coast. Expect another sea breeze collision late (early evening) across the central peninsula. Scattered showers and lightning storms are forecast to develop. The steering flow will be light westerly with some erratic movement at times, and some of this activity may drift back toward the Volusia and north Brevard coasts. Storms will dissipate through late evening, with highest PoPs (30-40pct) across the I-4 corridor and Osceola County. There should be less coverage overall than was witnessed the past couple of days. Dry conditions are then forecast across land areas through the overnight hours. A few storms may be strong late today with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 50 mph locally, small hail, and torrential downpours. 925 mb SERLY winds increase to 15-20 kts off the surface overnight, which should lend toward favoring stratus over fog development, but will follow persistence from the last couple days of rainfall and add patchy fog for late overnight into early Wed morning. Would suspect greatest chances would be inland from the coast where it could again become locally dense. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s, to around 70F with conditions humid. Wed-Sun...Previous Discussion Modified...Mid-upper level high pressure across the western Atlc, extending to the Florida peninsula, will amplify and dominate the local weather pattern. This high pressure system will slowly shift eastward before weakening towards the end of the period. At the surface, high pressure across the Northeast U.S. on Wed will slowly shift southward out into the western Atlantic through the weekend, with associated ridge axis building across the Florida peninsula by the weekend. Locally southeast winds will persist through much of the period, becoming breezy on Thu (15-20 mph), with speeds generally around 10 mph across the interior, and 10-15 mph along the coast. Winds shift south on Sun as the surface high pressure retreats south/east with the approach of a frontal boundary across the Deep South. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form and push inland each afternoon with no mentionable rain chances through the the period. Temps will remain well above normal, with afternoon highs reaching in the the U80s to L90s across the interior, and M80s along the coast. Peak afternoon heat indices in the L90s W of I-95. Overnight lows will be U60s to L70s on Wed overnight, and M-U60s Thu night onward. Mon-Tue...Previous Discussion Modified...A broad upper-level trough across the Midwest extending to the Gulf will shift eastward, reaching the southeast U.S. coastline (near the Carolinas) Tue night. An accompanying/weakening cold front across the Deep South on Mon will push southeast across the local area Mon night into Tue morning. The GFS is the faster solution with the ECMWF bringing the boundary through on Tue. Either way, this will bring rain chances back into the forecast. For now, there is a low to medium (20-40 pct) chance of showers and lightning storms across east central Florida on Mon aftn/night along and ahead of the front before increasing to 40-50 pct on Tue, depending on timing of this feature. Prefrontal SW winds on Mon will veer W/NW with approach/passage of the boundary. Winds continue to veer to N/NE further behind the boundary, as long as it makes a clean passage. Warm conditions on Mon, prefrontal, with noticeably cooler temperatures behind this boundary once it passes. Afternoon highs will be in the U80s to L90s on Mon, falling into M70s across the I-4 corridor to U70s/L80s south towards Lake Okee/Treasure Coast on Tue, if the front passes as presently scheduled. Overnight lows into Tue morning in the U50s north of I-4, L60s southward, except M60s along the immediate Treasure Coast and adjacent barrier islands. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Remainder of afternoon thru Sat...Weak high pressure across the western Atlc will periodically become reinforced thru late week, with associated ridge axis settling across the central FL peninsula by this weekend. Variable light winds early today transition to SERLY with the local sea breeze regime 6-12 kts. SE winds increase to 12-16 kts on Wed, and 15-20 kts over the Gulf Stream Wed night-Thu night before diminishing to around 15 kts Fri- Sat. Seas 3-4 ft build to 4-5ft Wed night-Thu night (possibly 6 ft well offshore) before slowly subsiding to 3-4 ft again Fri aftn/Sat. Mostly dry conditions are forecast through the weekend, except for isolated to scattered showers/lightning storms mainly Cape Canaveral northward this evening. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Mostly VFR conditions expected through today into tonight, with dry conditions forecast. Some brief MVFR cigs may continue through 08Z from KMLB southward. Also, may see some patchy fog develop through early this morning, producing tempo IFR/MVFR conds. Added tempo 5SM BR between 10-13Z for inland sites and KDAB where fog potential is slightly higher. However, hi-res guidance currently indicates best potential for fog north and west of the east central FL area. Expansive area of high pressure with center pushing offshore the northeast U.S. this afternoon will produce a breezy to windy southeast flow across the area today. SE winds will increase to around 12-15 knots across the interior with gusts to 20-22 knots. The inland moving east coast sea breeze will increase E/SE winds along the coast even more, around 15-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots this afternoon. Increasing boundary layer winds above the surface into tonight should limit any fog potential, but may see some patchy/areas of stratus form late in the night, producing tempo MVFR cigs, mainly after 06Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 85 69 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 89 71 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 84 71 84 70 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 84 71 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 90 70 90 69 / 10 0 0 0 SFB 89 70 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 89 71 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1225217 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:06 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 151 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Dense fog advects in from the coast, and the forecast is on track. Dense fog advisories have been issued for coastal areas, and there is high confidence that impacts will extend into Florida counties. The advisory will extend to all Florida Counties beginning 04Z. Widespread areas of fog with pockets of 1/4 mile visibilities are expected. How conditions evolve in the morning hours will determine whether the advisory extends into Georgia and Alabama counties. Winds may pick up just enough in the early morning hours to increase mixing in these areas, so no advisories are issued for Georgia or Alabama counties as of this update. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Wednesday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The main story for tonight-tomorrow morning is high coverage in fog/low stratus advecting from the Gulf. Fog is likely to be dense at times, especially in the FL counties and an advisory is probably going to be warranted by this evening. These conditions should improve within a few hrs of sunrise and give way to partly cloudy skies. There are low-end rain chances in the forecast near Wednesday evening as a slug of moisture converges over the parts of the I-75 corridor. An isolated thunderstorm or two would not be surprising. Otherwise, fair but unseasonably warm weather prevails. Look for inland highs in the upper 80s to even low 90s! An afternoon seabreeze will keep the coastal strip several degrees cooler. The abundant cloud cover and low-level moisture fosters widespread mid 60s for overnight lows. && .SHORT TERM/LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 A surface high is sitting off the coast of Jacksonville remaining stagnant in the Atlantic from Wednesday evening through the latter half of the week. On Thursday into Friday, an upper level low moving over the Great Lakes will pull a warm, dry airmass sitting over Mexico into the Gulf toward our region. With the surface high remaining close by, near calm winds will lead to near record highs through Friday. The warm airmass over the colder Gulf sea surface waters will bring advection fog and stratus each morning and dissipating shortly after sunrise. Depending on the timing of the stratus break each morning will determine how much time direct sunlight will allow the surface to heat up in order to reach toward record max highs. However, winds from the circulation of the surface high will keep a persistent southerly flow advecting over cooler sea surface temperatures in the Gulf resulting in cooler temperatures during the day along the coast. Moving into the weekend, the stagnant high moves a little further west dropping off winds allowing for thicker stratus and fog in the morning. Cloud cover will persist on Sunday as an upper level low moving from the four corners area ejects the stationary high off the Atlantic setting up a potential squall line Monday morning into afternoon. The extreme warming in Mexico currently taking place will consequently help fuel instability on Monday`s event in the Southeast region. However, instability is expected to fall off on the approach to our forecast region. Following the front, a cooler, drier airmass is expected to come through. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 148 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Areas of fog and low ceilings will be a concern through mid-morning across the region. The low ceilings and fog should lift and dissipate during the mid-morning hours with VFR conditions returning later today. Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning into the afternoon with gusts near 20 knots expected. Winds will diminish again this evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Areas of dense sea fog are expected over the marine waters tonight and at times through the next few days. Southerly flow will remain in place through the balance of the work week, with winds generally remaining around cautionary levels. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Dry weather sticks around for the rest of the week as temperatures away from the coast rocket into the upper 80s to near 90 for afternoon temperatures. MinRH values are forecast to generally remain above 35 to 40 percent every afternoon, or above critical thresholds thanks to southerly flow. High afternoon dispersions are forecast Wednesday and Thursday thanks to the combination of 4-6k ft mixing heights and higher southerly transport winds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 359 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 With little or no rain expected through the next few days, there are no immediate flood concerns. Rain chances increase late in the weekend, though the approaching front is expected to be progressive enough that any flood potential should be limited. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 86 67 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 80 68 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 88 67 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 89 67 89 65 / 10 0 0 0 Valdosta 91 68 92 66 / 20 10 0 0 Cross City 90 66 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 77 67 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007>019-027>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-326- 426. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735. Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1225216 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 142 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the Mid-Atlantic region today through Wednesday bringing pleasant conditions and seasonal temperatures. Warming temperatures are expected later in the week and into the weekend as high pressure settles offshore. Chances of showers increase by the weekend as a cold front stalls to the north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Cooler tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. - Dry and seasonable Wednesday. Sfc analysis depicted an area of high pressure extending from SE Canada into the Mid-Atlantic. Nighttime satellite imagery shows areas of cirrus streaming into the area in the WNW flow aloft. Cirrus gradually increase in coverage from W to E into this morning. As such, expect overnight lows to be reached over the next few hours with temps possibly warming across the Piedmont by late tonight. Forecast lows in the low- mid 40s SW to upper 30s NE are expected. Mid 30s are possible across interior and western portions of the MD Eastern Shore, as suggested by some of the statistical guidance. While the frost/freeze program has officially begun as of today (April 1), am not expecting much, if any, frost tonight, though isolated patches are possible in the coolest locations. Will therefore not have any frost headlines tonight. The position of the sfc high shifts towards northern Maine on Wednesday. The low-level flow will also become easterly- southeasterly, which may keep a wedge-like airmass in place across the Piedmont (particularly NW). The high temperature forecast is somewhat uncertain given the potential wedging and a rather large spread is present across the guidance (for a 12-24 hr forecast). The highest confidence in milder temps...well into the 60s and potentially lower 70s...is across interior southern VA and NE NC. Cooler temps in the upper 50s-lower 60s are likely closer to the coast given the flow off the cool waters, with similarly cool conditions possible across the NW Piedmont. Meanwhile, a warm front gradually advances northward through the NC/SC Piedmont later in the afternoon and evening. This feature is likely to bring increased low-level cloudiness through the day as sfc dew points inch upwards. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Message: - Much warmer temperatures are expected both Thursday and Friday - Limited chances of rain return by Friday. An upper level ridge is progged to build across the area by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, at the surface the high pressure will just be off the coast of New England by late Wednesday evening. While just to the south a warm front will continue to make its way from the south. Ahead of the front will be some ongoing cloud cover that will help keep temperatures mild throughout Wednesday night. Low temperatures will range in the middle to upper 50s across the FA. With the warm front moving across the area and advecting in moisture there is the possibility of fog late Wednesday into Thursday morning. By Thursday the high pressure will move into the SE causing temperatures to be much warmer. High for thursday will be in the middle 80s across VA/NC and upper 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Shore. By Friday the chances of showers will increase as a cold front stalls just north of the CWA. This front could potentially cause a sharp gradient with temperatures depending on where it is positioned. As of this update temperatures across the north will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While across the south highs will be in the middle to upper 80s possibly even nearing 90 degrees across the south. In addition, the chances of showers do increase Friday along the stationary boundary to the north. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 310 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Warmer temperatures continue through the weekend. - A better chance of showers and thunderstorms potentially arrives late Sunday/Sunday night. - Much cooler weather appears likely early next week. The latest 12z GEFS and Euro Model are in decent agreement with a strong ridge staying in place through the weekend. This ridge will allow temperatures to warm up into the middle 80s. By the end of the weekend the ridge is expected to break down Due to a strong trough coming out of the north. Meanwhile at the surface, the cold front from Friday is expected to lift north Saturday and than further north Sunday. This is due to a strong system that is expected to make its way across the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures should generally remain above seasonal averages into the weekend, aside from locally cooler temperatures over the Eastern Shore Saturday with onshore flow. Saturday should be mostly dry with low-end shower chances across northern portions of the area. A better chc of showers/tstms potentially arrives Sunday/Sunday night. A more significant pattern change is likely starting early next week as the cold front finally crosses the area while a deep upper trough settles over eastern North America. Highs likely drop back down to near seasonal averages by next Monday with shower chances continuing through the first part of the day, before drier air arrives from the NW later in the day. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday... Cirrus build in from W to E into this morning with mostly cloudy skies across the Piedmont through the day. CIGs gradually lower by late this morning into this afternoon from SW to NE as stratus move in (CIGs generally 4000-8000 ft). CIGs continue to lower this evening into tonight with MVFR CIGs pushing in from SW to NE. IFR CIGs are expected across the Piedmont to RIC after 6z Thu. Otherwise, remaining dry apart from some occasional light drizzle or sprinkles across the Piedmont mainly this evening into tonight. Light E winds early this morning become ESE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt by this afternoon, becoming SE this evening. Outlook: A warm front lifts north through the region tonight, bringing widespread cloud cover and MVFR/IFR CIGs. VFR conditions should return areawide by Thursday afternoon, followed by possible flight restrictions again Thursday night. There is also a minimal chance of showers later in the week as a cold front tries to nudge into the region from the NW. This cold front then slides through the area as a backdoor front Friday night, and lifts back N Saturday. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Tuesday... Key Messages: - Sub-SCA conditions prevail from tonight through most of Wednesday. - Winds become elevated Wednesday afternoon through Thursday with marginal SCA conditions possible. - Another period of elevated winds is possible early next week ahead of and behind a strong cold front. High pressure is building toward the waters this afternoon. Winds have diminished to ~15 kt on the bay/ocean (5-15 kt on the rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the ocean until 7 PM (as seas are still ~5 ft in spots). Winds become E at 10 kt tonight as the high shifts offshore. The gradient on the back side of the high will increase late Wed-Wed night, allowing wind speeds to increase to 15-20 kt late Wed afternoon-Wed night (with the wind direction becoming SE- S). Low-end SCA conditions are possible on the bay and northern coastal waters during this time (especially Wed night-early Thu AM). Local wind probabilities of sustained 18 kt winds are 40-70% from 03- 08z Thu on the bay. Seas subside to 3-4 ft tonight but build back to 4-5 ft by late Wed night. Will hold off on additional SCA headlines attm, but will continue to monitor. Low-end SCA conditions are also possible on Thursday (mainly on the rivers, sound, and southern/western shore of the bay) due to gusty SW winds during the day with increased mixing over adjacent land areas. Generally sub- SCA conditions are expected on Friday and Saturday. SCAs are possible on Sunday/Sunday night due to SW winds increasing to ~20 kt (with higher gusts) ahead of a cold front. Additionally, seas likely build back to 4-6 ft by late Sunday (and remain above SCA thresholds on Mon/Tue). Another period of elevated winds is possible behind the above mentioned cold front from Monday-Tuesday with N-NW winds around 20 kt. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225215 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 132 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will linger nearby to the south of the area into early tonight, before lifting north as a warm front later tonight and Wednesday. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Trying to be proactive regarding the fog, so a Dense Fog Advisory for southeast Georgia and for Jasper and Beaufort County in South Carolina, as various models such as the LAMP, HRRR, and NBM all showing that fog and low stratus will expand in coverage overnight. One possible negative for the fog would be a 15-20 kt low level jet. That might keep in more as a low stratus layer. But after coordinating with WFO JAX, we have raised the DFA. Otherwise, temperatures will dip back into the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will move off the Northeast United States coast on Wednesday. Meanwhile a pronounced inverted trough will develop off the GA coast and move inland during the day. Decent moisture and instability will develop across southeast GA during the day. Isolated to scattered showers and tstms could develop in association with the trough as it moves inland during the day Wednesday. Highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Dry and warm weather is expected Thursday through Friday as deep layered ridging expands over the area. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday. At the coast, temps will be considerably lower due to a robust afternoon sea breeze both days. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging will persist through Saturday night, then a longwave trough will push east on Sunday. A cold front will slowly sweep through Sunday night through Monday night, bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temps expected by early next week. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KCHS/KJZI: It looks like the worst of the stratus and fog will stay to the south and southwest of the terminals into Wednesday morning. But even so, MVFR will occur until around 1330Z, with a moisture trapped beneath a 1-2C inversion. Conditions return to VFR thereafter as the inversion climbs. We`ll have to keep watch for a return of flight restrictions later tonight. Meanwhile, as a warm front lifts past these sites this morning, there could be a few showers around the area. Coverage is too small to include anything at this time. KSAV: There is already low ceilings as we begin the 06Z TAF cycle, and with a stronger inversion than those sites to the north, we anticipate even worse conditions will develop, potentially down near airfield mins. While there is improving ceilings/visibilities by 1330Z, it`ll take until around 16Z before VFR returns. Flight restrictions could return again later tonight. With the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon, gusty S-SE winds will peak around 18-22 kt until close to sunset. Extended Aviation Outlook: Ceiling restrictions possible Wednesday night and again Thursday night. && .MARINE... Overnight: While the coverage of sea fog has diminished since earlier, there is the chance that it returns in greater coverage, so we maintain the Dense Fog Advisory for the nearshore waters from Edisto Beach to the Altamaha Sound. The Savannah River and the Port of Savannah will remain closed. Further north and east, no more than patchy fog will occur. Outside of the fog, no concerns regarding winds and seas. Atlantic high pressure will expand over the area Wednesday through Saturday night with winds/seas generally below advisory levels. The exception will be Wednesday night into Thursday when some 6 ft seas could sneak into the offshore GA waters, requiring a short-duration Small Craft Advisory. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ047-048- 051. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ352-354. && $$ |
| #1225214 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:48 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1231 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Key Messages: - Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts Wednesday - Breezy winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph through Wednesday over the Coastal Plains A very strong low-level jet will develop tonight over the Coastal Plains, with latest guidance showing 45-50 knots. This will result in breezy conditions over South Texas through Wednesday night, sustained south to southeasterly winds of 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. A cold front over North Texas will have an accompanied dryline south stretching into the Rio Grande Plains during the day Wednesday. Although there is a very strong cap with CINH over 200 J/kg, there will be a stout 850mb positive vorticity axis passing over Wednesday morning and afternoon. In addition, moisture will pool over the Victoria Crossroads with PWAT values around 1.5" (>75th percentile). These factors could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms over the Victoria Crossroads, but confidence is low and maintained silent PoPs of 10-14%. Stability further increases heading into Wednesday night despite another shortwave at 850mb, leading to even lower rain chances. In regards to temperatures, lows tonight and Wednesday night will struggle to dip into the 60s with much of the area in the low to mid 70s matching dewpoints. Wednesday will be hot, especially over the Rio Grande Plains where ambient air temperatures will be able to climb greater with the drier airmass. Highs will range from the upper 80s east to around 102 over the Rio Grande Plains. Therefore, there is a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts on Wednesday, east to west respectively. Corpus Christi`s record high temperature Wednesday is 95, currently forecast near that at 93. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest will continue to slowly meander into West Texas through the end of the work week. At the surface, a coastal trough in the western Gulf will continue to keep South Texas under onshore flow, keeping dewpoints along the Coastal Plains in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Along the Rio Grande Plains, there will be more influence from the daily dry line passages that move into and out of the region. Additionally, highs through Friday are expected to be well-above normal, with highs west of the dry- line containing a high probability (70-90% chance) of exceeding 100F, while remaining in the upper 70s/80s east of the dry-line and along the barrier islands. Winds will begin switching to more NW`ly flow at the surface throughout Saturday, resulting in drops in dewpoints during the day with highs still reaching the upper 80s/low 90s, but a more noticeable drop in temperature from Saturday night and through Tuesday, with highs only reaching the upper 60s/low 70s and lows in the mid 40s/low 50s. By Saturday night, precipitation chances spread from the Victoria Crossroads further into the inland zones through Sunday morning. NBM probabilities of receiving 0.25 inches of 24-hr rainfall through Sunday morning is low across the Brush Country and near Corpus Christi (10-20% chance) and medium across the Victoria Crossroads (30-50% chance). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 A mixed bag of VFR to IFR conditions are present over the region tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected across the eastern terminals through mid to late morning though VCT will remain MVFR all day. VFR conditions will persist until conditions deteriorate once again this evening. Western terminals are expected to remain mostly VFR though a low to medium chance for periods of MVFR will exist at COT. Strong surface winds can be expected through the day with gusts around 20-30 knots. The strong LLJ around 45-50 knots will likely lead to LLWS around 2000 feet at a couple sites (ALI and COT). && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely continue through the rest of the work week with seas 7 to 10 feet over the open waters. A fresh to strong south to southeasterly breeze will persist with gusts near gale force tonight into Wednesday morning. Slight visibility reductions due to patchy fog and haze may develop tonight into Wednesday. A coastal trough in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf will result in a strong south- to- north pressure gradient. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-10 ft waves, and 5-7 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be more fresh, with waves dropping to 4-5 ft in the nearshore waters, and down to 5-7 ft in the offshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 72 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 88 71 89 72 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 102 71 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 73 86 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 73 83 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275. && $$ |
| #1225213 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 131 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring onshore flow through Wednesday. The lingering front to the south will lift back north as a warm front late Wednesday with much above normal warmth arriving for Thursday through Sunday. Outside of low rain chances late Wednesday, the next chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying another cold front. && .UPDATE... There`s quite a dewpoint gradient across the area from coastal to inland locations. Shallow Atlantic moisture pushing onshore behind this afternoon`s seabreeze should push farther inland overnight, likely yielding a layer of low stratus clouds with time. There`s already signs of this stratus developing at North Myrtle Beach where some 600 foot AGL clouds were recently reported. The largest aerial extend of stratus is expected to develop inland across the Pee Dee region after midnight. One more feature of note is a secondary surge of northeasterly winds making its way down the North Carolina coastline. The latest HRRR and the 18z NAM show this reaching the coastal waters before midnight with an increase in wind speeds expected. I`ve blended in these two models to bring wind speeds up another few knots, mainly for the NC waters late tonight. The 18z NWPS wave run did not significantly increase forecast sea heights. No significant changes have been made to temperatures or sky cover forecasts overnight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold front has stalled from along the coast westward through the Pee Dee region and is demarcating dew points in the low 60s from those in the low-mid 50s. Cloudiness has largely dissipated, except in the vicinity of the front along the coast. Expect the continued advection of low-level dry air and increasing subsidence aloft to gradually dry out these clouds by late in the day, leaving a mostly clear sky for this evening into early tonight. However, as high pressure to the north shifts offshore, winds will veer to southeasterly tonight and bring increasing moisture back over the shallow dry air mass that arrived on Tuesday. This will lead to increasing cloudiness as stratus clouds develop overnight and spread across the region. With generally light winds and mainly clear skies this evening, expect temperatures to drop rather quickly before slowing down or going steady as easterly winds pick up by midnight. As stratus clouds arrive, temps will hold steady or even rise a little where they move overhead during the latter half of the night. Expect lows generally in the middle 50s, except low 50s in northeastern portions of the forecast area. On Wednesday, an anomalous ridge begins building over the Atlantic near The Bahamas, setting up southwesterly flow overhead and raising mid-level heights. Near the surface, high pressure northeast of the area will maintain east to southeasterly winds through the day, keeping a flow of moist ocean air into the forecast area over a shallow wedge of relatively dry air. The end result should be considerable cloudiness continuing through the day on Wednesday, with daytime heating helping to eat away at the clouds somewhat, although just how much clearing can be achieved in the afternoon carries lower than normal confidence. It is quite possible that cloudy or mostly cloudy skies remain in place almost everywhere, which would keep daytime highs somewhat cooler than forecast. Assuming an initially cloudy morning with mixed clouds and sun in the afternoon, highs should reach the mid-upper 70s, except low 70s near the coast. Isolated showers are possible on Wednesday mainly near the coast, although they should be light owing to the shallow nature of the moisture and weak forcing. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warming will begin in force as lingering boundary lifts back north as warm front and winds come around to the south with deep ridge beginning to build across the Southeast. Any low clouds or light pcp Wed eve into early Thurs should break up. Could see some afternoon cu, but not expecting any pcp with a very dry mid to upper level column Thurs aftn onwards. Rising H5 heights increasing above 590 dam by Thurs will rise even further. The 850 temps will rise from near 11C to 17C by Thurs. Overall, summer-like weather with the greatest warmup so far this season, bringing high temps well into the 80s inland. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast cooler, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Dewpoints will rebound into the 60s with overnight lows in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deep ridging up through the Southeast will slip slowly away over the weekend into early next week as deep mid to upper trough pushes a cold front east. Initially rising H5 heights should peak on Fri and although heights begin to fall through the weekend, the ridge holds on with continued subsidence and dry air through the mid levels keeping any showers out of the picture until at least later on Sun. This will lead to plenty of sunshine and very warm temps Fri into the weekend with highs well into the 80s inland and could see our first 90 degree day. Temps at the beaches will be several degrees cooler as the water temps were still in the 60s. Expect the cooler 70 degree temps to spread inland with the sea breeze each aftn. The warm and more humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid 60s through Sun night. A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sun. Expect increasing clouds and chc of pcp late Sun into Sun night. Best shortwave energy will dampen out as it approaches the eastern Carolinas, but should see shwrs and iso storms come Mon aftn as front moves through local area. Temps should only reach into the 70s on Mon with clouds and pcp and by Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tues only in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Onshore flow is resulting in the development of clouds in the 500 to 1000 ft range early this morning. All terminals contain at least tempo cigs below 1kft between now and about daybreak. Cigs will gradually lift to VFR conditions with daytime heating but it could take till midday or later, especially inland. Attm, not anticipating a repeat Wed night into Thursday as winds will become more SE-S by the end of the valid taf period. Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR through the period. && .MARINE... Through Wednesday...High pressure north of the forecast area will maintain steady easterly winds tonight, which will gradually veer to southeasterly on Wednesday. Seas in the 2-4 ft range this afternoon increase tonight to 3-4 ft and remain in that range through Wednesday. Seas will be driven by a combination of southeasterly swells of 2-4 ft at 8-9 seconds and easterly wind waves of 1-3 ft at 4-5 seconds. Wednesday night through Saturday...Winds will transition from SE to S Wed night into Thurs as warm front lifts north with a persistent southerly flow setting up through the remainder of the week. Winds will be in the 10 to 15 kt range and will shift from S to a more SW direction Fri into the weekend with seas maintaining a 3 to 4 ft range. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1225212 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:36 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Key Message: Above normal temperatures with feel like temperatures in the triple digits. Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft along with southeasterly to southerly flow as the surface will lead to warm and dry conditons across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley through the short term period. As an upper/mid level trough continues to deepen across the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest, low pressure on the lee side of the Rockies into northern Mexico is leading to an increased pressure gradient with breezy to windy conditions expected into Wednesday. While these winds currently are forecast to remain just below Wind Advisory criteria, especially overnight tonight into early Wednesday, we could see gusts to around 35 mph. Will continue to closely monitor for the potential for a Wind Advisory later tonight/early Wednesday. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 90s for much of the CWA. A few locations across the Rio Grande Plains could see temperatures right around 100 degrees. The cool spot will be right along the coast with highs in the 80s. The warm temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat indices onto the low triple digits, mainly in the Rio Grande Plains and along I-69C today and along and east of the I-69 C (excluding the islands) for Wednesday. There is a Moderate heat risk for much of Deep South Texas for Wednesday. Please make sure to stay hydrated and if working outside take frequent breaks. Overnight temperatures will run about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with lows in the low to mid 70s. At areas beaches there is a moderate risk of Rip Currents today and will increase to High for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An upper-level trough over the Western US will gradually shift east during the early part of the period, this will help to drive a cold front through the area Friday night into Saturday. Rain chances are expected to increase to around 25% along the front, however limited instability and moisture ahead of the front will likely limit the the potential for any major impacts from theses showers and thunderstorms. Hot temperatures are expected ahead of the front, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100 Thursday and Friday afternoons. With the front moving through Saturday, high temperatures may reach the upper 80s to low 90s. By Sunday, high temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 70s with a gradual warming trend early next week. A 850 mb LLJ looks to persist along the coast Thursday and Friday, which will likely support stronger winds mixing down to the surface. Wind Advisories may be needed during this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 MVFR to VFR conditions are expected into Wednesday morning with a strong 45 to 50 kt low level jet working west to east into early Wednesday afternoon. VFR ceilings are expected by mid-morning with stronger wind gusts mixing towards the surface. AWWs may be needed this morning into this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions likely persist through tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Now through Wednesday night...Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate into tonight and Wednesday. An increased pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast is leading to breezy conditions with a Small Craft Advisory going into effect this evening for all waters off the lower Texas coast. Thursday through next Tuesday...Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the weekend, as pressure gradients along the coast support strong southerly winds going into the weekend. A cold front looks to move through the area Saturday, with strong northerly winds picking up in its wake. These strong winds will increase seas along the coast to around 10 ft. Winds and seas will begin to diminish Monday, and favorable marine conditions may return next Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 74 90 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 75 98 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 82 74 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ |
| #1225211 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:27 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 You`ll likely begin to notice some breezy conditions developing across the area this evening if you head outside, thanks in large part to the fairly rapid deepening of a surface low along the leeside of the Rocky Mountains (which deterministic models project to bottom out near 980mb tomorrow). The resultant tightening of the surface pressure gradient over the South Central CONUS will continue to increase wind speeds and wind gusts into tomorrow as the prevailing surface wind direction turns further towards the south. Sustained winds overnight will sit near 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. This will increase to 20-25 mph into tomorrow afternoon with gusts at times in excess of 30 mph closer the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued between 7 AM and 5 PM tomorrow. Gusty winds will have the potential to blow around any loose or unsecured objects outdoors. We`ve also seen lingering cloud cover result in high temperatures coming in a few degrees lower than initially anticipated with a large portion of the area in the upper 70s. Overnight lows will struggle to drop below 70, with persistent WAA and cloud cover inhibiting nocturnal cooling. A bit of fog overnight can`t be ruled out again, but the increase in wind speeds should largely work against the development of dense fog. Tomorrow, a surface cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will push into the Central Plains before stalling out just to our north. This feature could be sufficient to trigger the development of a few scattered storms across the northern zones during the afternoon and evening, and any developing storms would theoretically have the potential to become strong given the saturated and unstable environment in place. With this potential contingent on the exact progression of the frontal boundary, the SPC continues to maintain a Marginal Risk area for the far northern zones. Elsewhere, we should largely remain rain-free. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 An amplified mid-upper level trough located over the Great Basin will make very little eastward progression Thursday and Friday. This position will keep Southeast Texas in a region of SW flow aloft. Shortwaves will rotate around to the western periphery of the trough, resulting in multiple instances of increased PVA across the area. At the surface, a stationary boundary will sit just outside of the western edge of the CWA. This will continue the onshore winds and result in an influx of moisture into Southeast Texas. PWAT values will increase to near or above the 90th percentile (around 1.5"). This setup creates an ample opportunity for showers and storms near the end of the work week and into the weekend. Thursday and for the majority of Friday, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to be confined to the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Later in the day Friday and into early weekend, a cold front will push southward and will expand rain chances further into Southeast Texas. Given we are in Texas...and it is the springtime...it can almost go without saying that whenever we expect storms, there very well could be a Severe Weather Outlook to go along with it. In this case, yes...yes there is. Thursday`s Day 3 Convective Outlook from SPC highlights the northern Piney Woods in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5). The majority of the favorable dynamics lie just to the north, near the Red River area; however, we could have some damaging wind and large hail, especially if the stationary boundary shifts southward and provides a source of lift. Outside of that severe weather threat, an LLJ is projected to develop on Thursday into Friday, which will lead to gusty conditions during the afternoon hours both days. This may necessitate a Wind Advisory for those days. For Friday, the threat area includes the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods area. Right now there is a 15% chance for severe weather (a decent amount for a Day 4 Outlook). For both Thursday and Friday, CAPE values are well above 3000 J/kg for much of the area; however, there will be an inversion to overcome (Deterministic models have the cap eroding in the afternoon). If the cap erodes, and we get the lifting mechanism close enough (whether it be the stationary boundary, outflow from other storms, etc), storms would have the potential to become strong to severe. Damaging wind and hail would be the main threats. As for Saturday, the severe weather threat extends south to the I-10 corridor. The aforementioned LLJ will remain over Southeast Texas. This LLJ, along with the instability, moisture, the incoming cold front, and a passing upper level low will provide plenty of opportunity for lift. While it still remains pretty far out in the forecast period, it is worth keeping an eye on to see how the forecast evolves over the coming days. Once the front passes, rain chances will decrease and high pressure will build in from behind. This will lead to cooler and drier conditions in the latter part of the weekend. Temperatures in the long-term will start out in the mid to upper 80s on Thursday and Friday. Some locations may cross the 90 degrees threshold. Lows for these nights will be on the mild to warmer side as temperatures drop into the low to mid 70s. Following the front on Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the 60s. Lows will be in the 40s to 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Widespread MVFR across the area, though UTS is having a transient SCT018 moment, and while those may occur here and there, don`t anticipate it happening enough to deviate from MVFR at all terminals to start. Main storm activity to occur to the north of the area, but do have PROB30s for TSRA at CLL, UTS, and CXO for fairly low end potential of storms to dip into some of the area. No mentions from IAH coastward, however. Optimistically bringing things up to a mix of high MVFR and even brief low VFR for a few hours this afternoon, but we should plunge solidly back into MVFR at all sites heading into the evening. With strong low level jet, we are fairly close to the LLWS thresholds, particularly at CLL and UTS, but thinking the strong surface winds should be just enough to preclude an explicit mention in the TAF. It will be close, however. && .MARINE... Issued at 332 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Onshore will persist through the rest of the week. Winds will continue to strengthen this afternoon into tonight and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through 1 AM Thursday. The strengthening winds will inhibit fog development; however, it will bring the potential for coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches, particularly during times of high tide. In addition to the coastal flood risk, there will also be an increase risk for rip currents from mid week through at leas the end of the week. Chances for showers and storms will increase near the end of the week into the weekend as a cold front approaches. Adams && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 88 73 88 / 20 20 20 30 Houston (IAH) 73 89 74 87 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 72 80 72 80 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375. && $$ |
| #1225210 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:24 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 112 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 830 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Isolated to scattered convection this evening has diminished in intensity and coverage as it pushed east to northeast about 15 mph. 00z JAX Sounding showed plenty of MLCAPE of about 1900 J/kg, likely higher further to the south of JAX metro but weak bulk shear of about 25 kt. Last bit of convection is now over the coastal waters lifting northeast. Some uptick in some weak, generally isolated convection, is possible later tonight over the coastal waters as a warm frontal boundary lifts northward over the area and taps some instability offshore. In addition, we have seen some visibility restrictions as sea fog develops along the northeast FL coastline and marine waters and lifts northward. Additional fog is likely over the land zones as the low level moisture is certainly available with dewpoints in the 60s and clearing skies aloft. Can`t rule out a dense fog advisory either this evening or overnight. Little change in the temp forecast tonight with lows in the 60s. Made some minor tweaks to the temps and POPs for Wed, with some isolated convection possible over inland southeast GA during the aftn as sea breezes and cumulus lines force some low level convergence. && .NEAR TERM... (This afternoon and Tonight) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf This afternoon...Low clouds continue to disperse and temps will warm into the 80s, this combined with low level moisture south of the stalled frontal boundary across NE FL and interaction with the Atlantic sea breeze is still expected to lead to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of the I-10 corridor, but best chances will be along the I-95 corridor south of JAX to St. Augustine and Palm Coast. An isolated strong storm with gusty winds/small hail cannot be ruled out. Tonight...Isolated showers/storms still possible along the I-95 corridor of NE FL through the evening hours, but will fade after sunset, with a shift toward isolated shower/storm potential into the Atlantic Coastal waters and coastal SE GA counties as the old frontal boundary begins to lift northward during the overnight hours. The abundant low level moisture will lead to another night of low stratus and patchy/areas of fog, with some potential of localized dense fog along the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL and across inland SE GA, along with some potential for sea fog along the Atlantic Coastal counties as dew points remain on the higher side. Low temps will continue to remain well above normal in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure ridging wedges down the east coast to envelop the area, with an upper level ridge in place through the period. The high pressure ridging brings winds out of the southeast, allowing the sea-breeze to make its way inland each afternoon. High daytime temperatures are going to be unseasonably warm, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s inland Wednesday and predominately in the low 90s Thursday. The sea-breeze will help keep temperatures cooler during the day along the coast. Overnight, temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 60s with temperatures staying slightly warmer along the coast. Patchy fog will be possible each morning at inland locations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 High pressure at the surface and aloft continue into the weekend bringing strong subsidence and heat to the area. Temperatures will be above seasonal average with highs forecast to be in the upper 80s and low 90s Friday and into the weekend with lows in the 60s. Going into next week, a cold front looks to make its way into the area from the northwest. This should cool down those daytime highs back to near normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 Low stratus and fog will affect much of the region this morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by noon, with VFR conditions then through the afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms will be possible inland this afternoon, but this activity is not expected to affect local TAF sites at this time. The thunderstorms may get close to KGNV, but chance is too low to mention in TAF at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 150 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 No headlines expected early in the period as frontal boundary over the local waters this afternoon will lift north of the waters as a warm front tonight and winds become Southeast Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure ridge settles in north of the waters. Wind speeds generally close to 15 knots and seas 3-5 ft and should remain below headline levels. High pressure ridge settles closer to the local waters Friday and Saturday and south winds increase slightly to at least 15-20 knots and SCEC headlines are expected along with some potential for SCA flags as seas build to 5-7 ft over the offshore waters. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rips will continue in the southeast flow through Thursday. Surf/Breakers generally in the 2-4 ft range. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 66 88 66 / 30 0 0 0 SSI 79 67 79 67 / 10 0 0 0 JAX 87 68 88 67 / 10 0 0 0 SGJ 83 68 83 67 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 91 67 91 66 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 92 68 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for FLZ024-124. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ134>136- 151>154-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ450. && $$ |
| #1225209 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:21 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Looking at a fairly dry week as a rather large ridge setup over the western Atlantic and gradually noses into the southeastern US. This pattern will likely stay in place for the entirety of the work week. Deep southwesterly flow between the western periphery of the ridge and a rather deep upper trough over the western US will persist over the area allowing for deep gulf moisture to surge northward. The only rain chances through Friday will likely occur in the form of a few isolated showers across southeastern Mississippi Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. These showers will likely be in response to a couple of shortwaves progressing well off to our northwest on those days. Heading into the weekend, the pattern should finally breakdown as a stronger upper trough finally moves eastward and the upper ridge breaks down. This will likely bring a round of showers and thunderstorms along the approaching cold front on Sunday. Looking at some of the analog guidance and machine learning guidance, we will likely have to at least keep an eye on this period for a potential severe risk. However, given timing uncertainties and overall progression of the system it will be something we keep an eye on for the coming days. Given the rather strong subsidence in place from the upper ridge and the deep southwesterly flow, expect the next few days to be the first real taste of late spring to early summer. Highs will likely sit in the mid to upper 80s and would not be surprised if a few locations flirt with the first 90 degree day of the year. Dewpoints will also be up with increased moisture across the area leading to warm lows and a rather sticky feeling. Good news is that behind this weekends cold front there appears to be a temporary cool down. Coastal Hazards...Given the strong southeasterly flow at the surface persisting for several days, some coastal hazards will be expected. The biggest concern will be with the potential for rip currents across all area beaches. Have noticed that with the stronger winds tomorrow that some guidance is hinting at us flirting with coastal flood advisory criteria. Confidence in this is low; however, if we see any uptrend then a coastal flood advisory may be needed for Mobile Bay as some water could splash over the usual trouble spots along the causeway. We will also have to monitor the midweek period as a larger swell packet moves in which could be enough for a high surf advisory. Like the coastal flooding confidence on this is low as of now. BB-8 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 VLIFR conditions develop across the coastal counties overnight then improve to IFR/MVFR by mid Wednesday morning. IFR conditions are expected to develop over interior areas tonight then improve to MVFR/VFR conditions Wednesday morning. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots increase to 15-20 knots on Wednesday. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Light to moderate southeasterly flow will increase to moderate to occasionally strong tonight. Strong southeasterly flow will persist on Wednesday leading to a Small Craft Advisory being issued for parts of the marine waters. Although winds are expected to relax by the end of the week, seas may remain elevated enough to where small craft conditions could continue towards the weekend. Our next chance for rain will come Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. BB-8 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 83 70 81 69 82 67 78 / 0 10 0 10 0 10 30 80 Pensacola 70 78 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 Destin 70 78 70 78 70 78 71 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 60 Evergreen 67 85 66 86 64 86 66 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 20 80 Waynesboro 69 87 69 86 68 86 65 73 / 0 10 0 20 0 30 60 80 Camden 67 86 67 87 65 87 66 75 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 30 90 Crestview 66 83 65 84 64 83 66 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 70 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ261>266. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>636- 650-655. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-670. && $$ |
| #1225208 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 101 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 This morning`s low clouds and fog finally burned off shortly before Noon, with skies mostly sunny during the early afternoon hours. With the weak high pressure ridge across South Florida, sea breezes will dominate the local wind flow this afternoon. Latest CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) are fairly consistent in showing scattered showers and thunderstorms where the seabreezes intersect during the mid and late afternoon, primarily over the interior and west of Lake Okeechobee. With more low level dry air than the past few days, coverage and intensity of the convection will be less. However, with temperatures over the interior rising into the lower 90s, mixed-layer CAPE reaching 2000-2500 J/kg, steep low level lapse rates, and cold air aloft (freezing levels around 13 kft) there should be enough instability and low level forcing for a couple of strong storms capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Light steering flow may also cause higher rainfall amounts of 1-2" in isolated spots where the convection can concentrate. Some of the convection may backbuild towards the coasts late this afternoon, but should not make it any farther than the outlying suburbs of both coasts. High pressure surface and aloft begins to build and strengthen over the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday, and this will gradually usher in a more stable airmass and breezy SE winds to South Florida. Once this afternoon`s convection dissipates, little if any precipitation is indicated for tonight and Wednesday. The SE winds will bring a little more humidity to the area, and lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s (mid 70s along the Atlantic coast). Highs tomorrow are expected to once again hit 90 degrees over the interior and mid to upper 80s elsewhere, except closer to the lower 80s at the Atlantic beaches where the onshore SE breeze will limit the temperature rise. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Model ensembles and long range global solutions show good agreement in keeping the region under the firm control of sprawling high pressure, which lingers through early next week. Persisting subsidence and a relatively dry airmass will result in mostly rain- free and warm weather conditions, along with strong mid-level ridging remaining over the area. Pressure gradients are expected to strengthen across the western Atlantic, with southern edge of the high bringing breezy and gusty periods over SoFlo for the Thu/Fri time frame. Otherwise, mainly benign weather should persist each day through the long term. Next chance at some rainfall won`t arrive until early next week as a frontal boundary approaches the area. Afternoon highs should reach the mid 80s near the coasts, and may climb into the upper 80s to low 90s over interior areas and around the Lake region. It will also be rather humid and muggy, with potential for heat index values to reach the mid 90s across much of SoFlo, and even isolated spots touching the upper 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 E/SE winds 5-10 kts early this morning increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts after 14Z. SCT MVFR ceilings throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Benign conditions through tonight with winds and seas gradually remaining below 10 kts and 2 feet or less respectively. However, the increasing SE winds on Wednesday will begin a period of increasingly hazardous marine conditions which should last into the upcoming weekend. Current forecast trends suggest that small craft advisory conditions could begin as early as Wednesday night and last for several days. Winds are forecast to be near 20 knots and seas up to 6 feet. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1230 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Today is the last day of minimal rip current risk, as the increasing SE wind will bring the rip current risk to high levels at all Atlantic beaches from Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. Gulf coast beaches should remain under a low rip current risk as winds stay from an offshore direction. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 0 West Kendall 86 73 87 72 / 10 10 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 73 86 72 / 10 10 10 0 Homestead 85 75 85 74 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 83 74 / 10 10 10 0 N Ft Lauderdale 83 75 83 73 / 10 10 10 0 Pembroke Pines 87 75 87 74 / 10 10 10 0 West Palm Beach 83 74 83 72 / 10 10 10 0 Boca Raton 84 74 84 73 / 10 10 10 0 Naples 89 72 88 70 / 10 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1225207 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:09 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1203 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Generally a quiet mild day today as the front stalled just south of the coast early this morning but has already begun to retreat back to the north. Quite a bit of cloud cover over the region helped contain temps a tad with most of the area remaining in the mid to upper 70s for highs today but that will be the end of 70s for the rest of the week and into the weekend. The weather is like an......onion. Onions have layers, weather has layers. (yes I did pull out that quote). So what do I mean by this...on the surface the weather looks generally uneventful and rather quiet but as we peel back the layers there are some impacts we see. Nothings too major at this time but impacts none the less and hopefully can remain mostly on the lower impact side. The pattern over the CONUS is going to be active but we will see a healthy mid lvl ridge over the Bahamas setting up tonight and it will remain in place and build through the week but the bigger driving force will be a large and highly amplified ridge building just off the Pac coast. The currently flat ridge appears to be centered roughly around 20-25N and 140W but through the rest of the week will build with the ridge axis extending well north into the Gulf of Alaskan by as early as tomorrow night. What this is going to do is it will allow the already L/W trough over the western CONUS to remain anchored as a significant amount of energy dives down the back side of the trough. With the L/W trough over the western CONUS and the ridge dominating the southeastern CONUS there will be a strong persistent southwesterly flow regime set up across the northern portions of the Lower MS Valley, Mid MS Valley, and into the OH/TN Valleys. This is going to be harbinger of things to come for that area as it looks like there could be multiple rounds of of strong to severe weather but possibly worse VERY heavy rain across portions of AR/TN/MO/IL/KY. Yes this is impacting us but if you have friends and family in these area please make sure they are paying attention. That said what it will do is lead to a set up across our area that will remain in place through the rest of the work week and will continue into the weekend and possibly after that or until at least the cold next front moves through. So what exactly am I getting at. This pattern will lead to a boundary practically stalled from central TX into the OH/TN Valley Wednesday through Saturday. Multiple weak sfc waves will develop along that boundary with each disturbance embedded in the deep southwest flow. Those smaller scale lows will run northeast along it. At the same time high pressure currently over eastern Canada and the western Atlantic will build and remain in place through the. week. The combination of the sfc high off to our E/ENE and lower pressure over TX will provide a very persistent and strong southerly/southeasterly wind. This is already starting to set up but overnight tonight and into the weekend we will see moderate to strong onshore flow and that will set up across the entirety of the eastern Gulf leading to a fetch that stretches from our coast all the way down to the Keys and the Yucatan channel. This will drive water towards the coast and with the easterly component will drive into into our coast lines with no exit channel. If that wasn`t enough we are also moving towards the Spring tide which peaks out around Thursday but we will remain in a very elevated tide cycle tomorrow and into the weekend. Waveland was already running .8-.9` abv astronomical and with the increase both in time and wind speed this will only become much higher. The easterly component will also drive water into the tidal lakes and once water gets into them it takes a while to back out and generally needs a good west wind to really force it out quickly. This setup resembles a setup we saw April 5th to April 10th last year which was one of the higher tidal events we saw all year, even higher than some location`s during Francine. With that we had already issued a Coastal Flood Watch for the typical problem areas between Waveland and Shell Beach. It still looks like we may be just one more day from seeing some of the peak tidal values we will start to see some impacts tomorrow. As mentioned earlier Waveland is already running well abv normal and so is Shell Beach and they should begin to run even higher abv normal as onshore flow picks up. Given that we decided to start a Coastal Flood Advisory for the areas that were already in the Watch. If these values run much higher abv normal then they already are it will need to be upgraded to a warning which should be much more likely Thursday and Friday as the water has finally had enough time to pile up. For the rest of the coast and tidal lakes we added them to the Coastal Flood Watch which runs through Friday. These areas may not quite reach advisory criteria quite yet but by Thursday should easily be well into advisory and near warning criteria. As for the rest of the forecast the other impact will be the moderate to strong winds tomorrow and Thursday. A tight pressure gradient across the area will lead to very windy conditions tomorrow. 6mb across the area and winds that are almost unidirectional from the sfc to h85 and mostly sunny skies will promote fairly strong mixing and with h925 winds of 35-40 kt and h85 winds of 40-50 kt we should have little problems seeing winds gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range across the region tomorrow. The winds slack off some on Thursday but still remain quiet strong with wind gusts likely around 30 to 35 mph possibly topping out around 40. The wind may help it feel a little more tolerable the next 2 days as highs climb into the 80s and some areas in the upper 80s. Can not completely rule out a rogue 90 in there Thursday however the wind may help keep that contained as we will have a lot of mixing. Friday looks fairly similar with breezy southerly winds, still likely seeing gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range and highs in the 80s. Thursday and Friday there may be a few sprinkles out there but overall we look to remain dry as everything remains well off to our northwest. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Friday Night through Monday night) Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 It looks like we will finally see a pattern shift this weekend and more so late this weekend. The L/W trough over the western CONUS will finally begin to slide east and drive a cold front into the area. This should bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region late Saturday and into Sunday but exactly timing is quite difficult as these types of setups can sometimes take a little longer to move. That said we will have had 5-6 days of recovery with a very moist and unstable environment in place. If things line up there we will see another strong to severe weather event Saturday night/Sunday but things lining up is the one things that looks iffy at this time. We may see a decent cold front move through but we will remain in southwest flow through the entire event. We will need to keep a close eye on this system for the 2nd half of the week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 Terminals generally bouncing between MVFR and IFR, although in the last few minutes, KGPT has dropped to near field minima. The conditions at KGPT could continue for much of the night as this is advective fog. IFR or lower conditions should be prevailing for much of the night until about 15z, when ceilings will improve to MVFR. Any VFR ceilings could be rather limited in scope on Wednesday. A somewhat larger issue could be sustained winds of 20 knots or more with gusts in excess of 30 knots for much of the day. Winds will be south-southeasterly, so could be a crosswind issue on east-west configurations. Winds may relax...a bit...during the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025 The front stalled just off the coast early this morning and has already begun to return to the north. Southerly and southeasterly winds are thus returning and will increase through the tomorrow and remain moderate to strong through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Not only will onshore flow increase but with high pressure off to our east-northeast and low pressure slowly taking shape over the southern Plains a rather long persistent southeast fetch will set up over the eastern Gulf. This will lead to hazardous boating conditions and well above normal tides across the region and these impacts will last into the weekend before the next cold front late in the weekend or early next week. /CAB/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 68 87 71 88 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 71 89 73 88 / 10 0 0 0 ASD 70 87 72 86 / 10 10 0 10 MSY 72 86 74 86 / 10 0 0 10 GPT 68 80 70 81 / 10 0 0 10 PQL 67 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090. Coastal Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Friday afternoon for LAZ058-066>069-080-082-084. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ070-076-078. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for LAZ070-076-078. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ530-532-534- 536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Coastal Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT Wednesday through Friday afternoon for MSZ087-088. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ086. Coastal Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon for MSZ086. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ |
| #1225206 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:39 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1223 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Continued dry weather for most of Wednesday with below normal temperatures, then an approaching warm front will bring a period of showers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with pockets of mixed wintry precipitation possible across the interior at the onset Wednesday night. Milder conditions arrive Thursday into Friday, then trend cooler next weekend with unsettled conditions returning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages: * Colder tonight with below normal temperatures High pressure over eastern Canada builds into New England tonight. Gusty NW winds will diminish, and establish rather good radiational cooling conditions to go along with modest cold air advection for the first part of the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Key Messages: * Dry for most Wed with below normal temperatures * Low risk for some spotty freezing rain or light snow Wed night Strong high pressure moves off to the east Wednesday. A low pressure over the upper Midwest should approach the Great Lakes by Wednesday evening. The warm front associated with this low pressure should then approach southern New England late in the day. Increasing clouds for sure during this time, but not as confident in the timing or type of precipitation. Forecast soundings are supportive of a mostly rain scenario. However, there are windows for some light snow or icing across the higher terrain of central and western MA. This time of year, the pavement tends to be a little warmer, so not quite as concerned about impacts. However, will continue to monitor this possibility. Below normal temperatures expected to continue Wednesday, then should trend closer to normal Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long Term Key Messages * Pleasant early spring day on Friday * Cooler on Saturday followed by increasing warmth and shower chances Saturday night into Sunday * Trending cooler again early next week Thursday night and Friday A dry cold front pushes through the region Thursday night into Friday brining abnormally high 925 hPa temps near 15C down to values closer to normal for early April in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. This front will be accompanied by a dry northwest flow that will support efficient mixing on Friday afternoon. As a result we can expect a pleasant/sunny early spring afternoon with high temperatures in the 60s across southern New England. Expect the warmest temperatures in east/southeast MA where downsloping on northwest flow may support temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A 70 degree observation can`t be ruled out with ensemble probabilities suggesting a 10 to 20 percent chance of temperatures greater than 69 degrees on Friday afternoon. The warmth will be accompanied by a northwest breeze with some gusts of 20 mph possible across the region. Saturday through Sunday night. The warmth from Friday quickly cools down on Saturday as high pressure is forecast to build north and east of southern New England. This will allow a backdoor cold front to advect cooler air back into the region with 925 hPa temps dipping near the freezing mark by Saturday morning. This will support a cool/raw day with highs peaking in the mid to upper 40s for much of southern New England. Saturday will as mark the beginning of a wet/unsettled period. As the aforementioned area of high pressure continues to shift east, return flow from the south will support WAA driven showers over southern New England likely beginning Saturday afternoon. Expect precipitation to persist through Sunday as the associated low-pressure system traverses over The Northeast Saturday night through Sunday evening. As warm sector air lifts over the region on Sunday, 925 hPa temps rise dramatically to the 15 to 20C range. So while Sunday is expected to be wet/rainy, it will also be on the warm/humid side with temperatures in the low to mid 60s and dewpoints in the 50s. Ensemble mean precipitation forecasts for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night are ranging from 0.75 to 1 inch across southern New England. Some of this precip may come in the form of convective showers Sunday night as the associated cold front drives the warm sector air out of the region. Model derived CAPE values are unimpressive at this time, but with ensemble mean SBCAPE values around 250 J/kg, a few showers could have a rumble of thunder, particularly along the south coast. Monday and Tuesday Trending drier and more seasonable on Monday as a cold front ushers a drier air mass over the southern New England. Ensemble mean high temperatures on Monday afternoon currently ranging from the mid to upper 50s across southern New England which is close to normal for this time of year. Model spread increases on Tuesday with the ECMWF/CMC models supporting a somewhat strong CAA pattern that would feature high temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s on Tuesday. The GFS is less aggressive with cooler air and keeps high temps in the mid to upper 40s next Tuesday. Stay tuned for further details... && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Tonight...High confidence. VFR, dry weather and diminishing winds. Wednesday...High Confidence VFR. NE wind 5-10 kt becoming SE-S in the afternoon. Wednesday Night...Moderate Confidence. VFR trending to MVFR overnight. Local IFR across the higher terrain late. Mostly -SHRA, but some risk for -SHSN or -FZRA across the interior. Thursday...Moderate Confidence Mainly IFR/MVFR with -SHRA. Steady south/southwest winds from 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. BOS TAF...High confidence. BDL TAF...High confidence. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Wednesday Night...High confidence. High pressure builds across the waters late tonight into Wednesday. While winds diminish, seas will take longer to subside. Small Craft Advisories continue. Increasing southeast winds behind a warm front Wednesday night should result in building seas once more. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday: Strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers. Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely. Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ231-235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254- 255. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ256. && $$ |
| #1225205 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:33 AM 02.Apr.2025) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1218 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will linger nearby to the south of the area into early tonight, before lifting north as a warm front later tonight and Wednesday. Strong Atlantic high pressure will then prevail into this weekend, before a cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Had to issue a fast update to raise a Dense Fog Advisory for southeast Georgia and for Jasper and Beaufort County in South Carolina. Trying to get a jump on it, as the LAMP, HRRR, and NBM all showing that fog and low stratus will expand in coverage overnight. One possible negative for the fog would be a 15-20 kt low level jet. But after coordinating with WFO JAX, we have raised the DFA. Otherwise, temperatures will dip back into the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will move off the Northeast United States coast on Wednesday. Meanwhile a pronounced inverted trough will develop off the GA coast and move inland during the day. Decent moisture and instability will develop across southeast GA during the day. Isolated to scattered showers and tstms could develop in association with the trough as it moves inland during the day Wednesday. Highs expected to reach the low to mid 80s. Dry and warm weather is expected Thursday through Friday as deep layered ridging expands over the area. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s Thursday and upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday. At the coast, temps will be considerably lower due to a robust afternoon sea breeze both days. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ridging will persist through Saturday night, then a longwave trough will push east on Sunday. A cold front will slowly sweep through Sunday night through Monday night, bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler temps expected by early next week. && .AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Prior to the 0Z TAFs, IR satellite indicated a large area of sea fog along the GA coast, pushing onshore. Based on satellite trends, restrictive ceilings may reach KSAV by 2Z, highlighted with a TEMPO from 2-5Z. MOS and forecast soundings indicate that IFR ceilings may spread north across KCHS and KJZI by 8Z. Once the low ceilings reach the terminals it should continue to around daybreak. A sea breeze is timed to pass over the terminals early Wednesday afternoon, developing southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. Extended Aviation Outlook: Ceiling restrictions possible Wednesday night and again Thursday night. && .MARINE... Update: A large area of sea fog was evident on satellite across the Georgia and lower nearshore South Carolina waters early this evening. Visibility over the waters could fall to a half mile or less at times. The fog is expected to persist through this evening into tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through tonight. Atlantic high pressure will expand over the area Wednesday through Saturday night with winds/seas generally below advisory levels. The exception will be Wednesday night into Thursday when some 6 ft seas could sneak into the offshore GA waters, requiring a short-duration Small Craft Advisory. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: April 5: KSAV: 90/1988 April 6: KSAV: 90/1967 Record High Minimum Temperatures: April 3: KCHS: 67/2012 KCXM: 68/2012 KSAV: 68/2012 April 4: KCHS: 70/1974 KCXM: 69/1974 KSAV: 69/1974 April 5: KCHS: 65/2017 KCXM: 67/2023 KSAV: 66/1957 April 6: KCHS: 68/2023 KSAV: 68/2023 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ047-048- 051. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ352-354. && $$ |
