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| #1284172 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1016 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1016 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Updates don`t appear necessary this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Cloudy skies through Sunday morning with increasing chances for showers and possible rumbles of thunder. A shortwave trough with a surface Gulf low will be hugging the coast Sunday morning bringing rain chances to the region. Most of the heavier rain is expected to remain offshore, with light to moderate showers for our inland regions. Instability may be increased enough along the coast for a few rumbles of thunder during the day; however, no severe weather is expected. PoPs range from 20-40% in our Georgia counties. Elsewhere, rain chances are about 50-60% Sunday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s with the rain and cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s. As the Gulf low passes on Sunday, easterly winds will be gusting around 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The Gulf low will translate east through the night and exit our waters during the day on Monday. Rain chances will decrease through the day, and drier air will begin filtering in from the west. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms begins midweek as a large upper level trough enters the eastern CONUS. Rain chances will stick around through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures for the long term will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the 60s. Both of which remain above seasonable norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Conditions will deteriorate overnight with lowering ceilings down to MVFR levels due to increasing moisture across the area. Scattered showers are also expected overnight with an increase in coverage for Sunday. A few patches of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as we head into Sunday, especially around ECP. Easterly winds will continue, occasionally gusting in the 15-20 knot range. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as the Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend that could produce about 0.5 inches of rainfall along the coast with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to approach the region by midweek. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 77 65 81 / 20 40 20 10 Panama City 68 76 65 80 / 50 60 20 10 Dothan 64 73 62 79 / 30 40 20 0 Albany 64 74 61 79 / 10 30 30 0 Valdosta 66 77 64 81 / 10 30 30 10 Cross City 69 79 66 82 / 30 40 30 30 Apalachicola 69 75 67 78 / 40 50 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751- 752-755-770-772-775. && $$ |
| #1284171 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:51 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 832 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Rain chances increase into this evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with rough surf expected. There is a small chance of minor coastal flooding tonight. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Forecast remains on track this evening; no updates needed. /96 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Through Tuesday night, an upper level shortwave trough currently moving over the Mississippi River passes over the forecast area later today through Sunday. Moisture levels have increased into the 1.4"-1.6" range at this time and are expected to rise into the 1.8"-2.0" range tonight as winds in the 900-700mb range shift to more southeasterly, bringing increasing amounts moisture inland. Surface high pressure is advertised hanging tough over the Mid- Atlantic region, limiting the best moisture return to the western half of the forecast area and points west. Model soundings show modest instability (MUCapes topping out around 1000J/kg), with mid level height falls limited with the trough. Looking at possible impacts with this first system, limited instability combines with modest wind shear (Bulk Wind Shear of 20-25kts). Helicities by themselves are rising into the 200-250 m^2/s^s range, mainly over areas north of Highway 84. The best instability is limited to southern MS and coastal Al, well separated from the better helicities. Any 850mb jet to help destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere is indicated to be east of the forecast area. All in all, the chance of strong to severe storms is expected to be low due this mis-match placement of ingredients. With high moisture levels, there is a low possiblity of water issues, mainly Sunday and in poor drainage areas closer to the coast, and from training cells. The latest Drought Monitor shows Abnormally dry to Moderate Drought conditions north of our coastal counties, helping to temper water issues over these areas. Later Sunday night into Wednesday, guidance is advertising another shortwave trough/closed low moving to the Mississippi River. Guidance is inconsistent with the organization with the upper dynamics inconsistent in the guidance. Some of the guidance is advertising the upper dynamics, whether trough or close low, taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Southeast. With inconsistent timing and placement of the ingredients, will have to take a will monitor attitude for now. After this second system passes, the Southeast comes under zonal upper flow heading into the weekend, with a dry forecast indicated. Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases. With the tidal range at its maximum the next 24hrs and decreasing, there is some concern of a High Surface Advisory or Coastal Flood Advisory being needed. With P-ETTS based forecast data adverting a less than 10% of the water levels approaching minor inundation levels, less of exceeding, will monitor for now. Also, surf heights on area beaches are expected to be rough, but remain below High Surf Advisory criteria. /16 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 823 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions are currently in place at issuance time. Rain chances are expected to increase as we progress through the night, particularly over coastal counties and into southeast Mississippi. Coverage becomes more numerous by mid/late Sunday morning and into the early afternoon hours, with rainfall potentially lowering visibilities to MVFR (occasionally lower in some of the heavier activity). In addition, ceilings are forecast to lower to IFR or lower by around sunrise, and will linger through much of the day on Sunday. Winds will generally be easterly at around 5-10 knots tonight, increasing to around 10 knots, with occasional gusts to around 20 knots by the late morning/afternoon hours. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 67 77 65 / 30 40 60 20 Pensacola 80 69 77 67 / 10 30 60 20 Destin 81 68 77 66 / 10 50 60 20 Evergreen 80 63 74 60 / 20 30 60 20 Waynesboro 81 63 76 61 / 60 60 60 20 Camden 76 62 72 60 / 40 40 60 30 Crestview 82 65 77 62 / 10 30 70 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675. && $$ |
| #1284169 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:24 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 916 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates will be slow, especially in the Upper Keys. - Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes may freshen to moderate to fresh tonight, but are expected to slacken again tomorrow. - A wet, stormy period is expected tonight through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall, if timed with high tides, may exacerbate coastal flooding hazards. && .UPDATE... Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 It has been a difficult evening for trick-or-treat festivities mainly for Key West as a continuous stream of shower and thunderstorm activity has drifted northwestward near and mainly just offshore of the island. While the majority of this activity was just offshore, the lightning activity was very intense at times with many strikes detected within 5 miles of the island during prime trick-or-treating hours, many of which were positive strikes. In addition, these storms were also very efficient rainfall producers with MRMS 3-hr QPE data showing a swath of 3-5" and locally 6" just offshore to the SW of Key West, narrowly avoiding significant flooding impacts on the island. However, even with the majority of the rainfall occurring offshore, an inch to an inch and a half of rainfall occurred from Key West to Boca Chica, which exacerbated the ongoing coastal flooding impacts that have been observed recently. Fortunately, recent KBYX radar imagery finally shows decreasing shower coverage at this time as much of the area is worked over, especially across the Lower Keys. While some additional activity will continue overnight, overall coverage should remain isolated to scattered before increasing in coverage further into Sunday as a shortwave trough brings decreasing heights aloft. Overnight lows will fall to the mid 70s with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions and no changes planned to the ongoing forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A broad high pressure system set up over New England and Pennsylvania. Breezes along the Florida Peninsula freshened last night as the pressure gradient tightened, and the high developed enough to finally push breezes across the Keys back to east- southeasterly. Keys residents could feel the increase in humidity by stepping outside. Dew points across the Keys rose into the upper 70s. Satellite derived Advected Layer PWAT late this afternoon showed an increasing amount of moisture in the 700 to 500 mb layer. This lined up temporally with the development of thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. The environment was in the process of destabilizing and more than sufficient moisture is present. All the environment lacks is a source of lift to organize showers. An upper level trough, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance, moved over the northwestern Gulf last night. This shortwave will be able to travel along the Gulf Coast and provide a source of upper level divergence starting early tomorrow morning. The challenge with this trough is that the forcing will not be focused. Ongoing wind convergence south of the Keys is broad. Statistical guidance suggests PoPs may be able to approach 80 percent for portions of the Keys. However, the developing pattern is not one that will last for a long period of time. The region of enhanced divergence will move west of the Keys as early as Monday night. While November may start out with a burst of rainy season weather, we are steadily approaching the dry season. Once the wet period comes to an end, the forecast for next week becomes more uncertain. While broad layer ridging is expected to prevail across the eastern United States, a strong mid latitude trough is on track to develop over the Great Plains. Exactly how much this trough is able to weaken the ridge is uncertain, and model ensembles are not favoring one solution over another. In essence, the ensembles are moderating the more extreme solutions. Statistical guidance suggests a weak cold front may move across the Keys late next week, but there is no agreement on the timing or magnitude. Check back later, because we will have a better idea of this frontal system after this weekend`s bout of moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds headlines are in effect for the waters of Florida Bay, Bayside and Gulfside waters, Eastern Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits of Florida. No additional watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. From synopsis: a broad area of high pressure over the eastern United States will sustain gentle to moderate, occasionally fresh, breezes across the FLorida Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds headlines are in effect for portions of the marine zones tonight. Breezes are on track to slacken tomorrow, but stronger winds along the east coast will generate a higher northerly swell for the waters south of the Upper Keys. Expect breezes to slacken during the weekend with light to gentle breezes possible midweek. Shower chances will be elevated through Monday with the peak expected on Sunday. Drier conditions will be able to set up during the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 840 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the late evening hours but rain chances will increase Sunday morning into the afternoon hours. As a result, brief MVFR/IFR restrictions will be possible at times if any of this activity brings direct impacts to either of the island chain terminals. Surface winds will be out of the NE at around 5-10 kts, though occasional higher gusts could occur, especially in the vicinity of thunderstorm activity. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284167 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:30 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 815 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. The final Surf Zone Forecast of 2026 was issued today; these will resume on April 1, 2027. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. 2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. The local area will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure centered off to the NE through at least early next week leading to several days of quiet, dry weather with temps near normal. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast during the daytime periods. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. As sfc high pressure pushes farther offshore during the middle of next week, the upr-level pattern will start to transition as a deeper trough approaches from the west. Although forecast spread in regards to both upr-level heights and precipitable water remains high in this more amplifying pattern, southerly return flow would support an increase in rain chances later in the week. Latest forecast calls for a 30-40% of rain Thursday and Friday, with a dry forecast before then, aside from offshore where chances for showers are higher. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR continues through the TAF period with steady northeast winds and broken high clouds. Some gustiness may develop at the coastal terminals tomorrow mainly in the afternoon, but speeds will be less than earlier today. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR. The risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers increases on Wednesday and Thursday. && .MARINE... With sfc high pressure locked in place to the N/NE, moderate NE flow will continue over the waters. A SCA remains in effect for all coastal waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal. The headline now ends late Sunday night, when seas should dip below 6 ft with gusts decreasing to below 25 kt. Not much change into the first half of next week, with ~20 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas continuing through at least Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256. && $$ |
| #1284166 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:18 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 814 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. Tonight: Aloft, h500 heights will continue to fall as shortwaves move through the flow into the overnight period. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will continue to shift into the northeast, with a coastal trough just offshore. The resulting increased surface pressure gradient is creating the occasional gusty winds, especially closer to the coast. Though, they are expected to ease a bit overnight. The coastal trough will push light showers ashore over southeast Georgia overnight. Though, there remains some uncertainty on just how far inland the showers are able to get before dissipating. Either way, we continue to have chance POPs mainly south of I-16. Any precipitation amounts will remain light, with totals by sunrise Sunday expected to remain under a quarter of an inch. Extended: High pressure will remain the primary feature across the region through early next week. The high will be centered near the Mid Atlantic and southern New England Sunday into Monday before drifting eastward over the Atlantic Tuesday into the middle of the week. A coastal trough is expected to develop just off the GA/SC coast and provide sufficient convergence to generate showers. This shower activity will likely favor the GA coast Sunday into Monday. The shower potential will then gradually spread to the entire coast Tuesday into Wednesday as the parent high slips to the east and allows the trough to attempt to push onshore. Any rainfall that does occur shouldn`t be particularly impactful, with most places likely only seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The gradient will remain sufficiently tight to drive elevated northeast flow Sunday through Tuesday. Gusts into the 20-25 mph range are expected, especially along the coast each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z TAFs: CHS/JZI: Both sites are expected to remain rain-free. However, the concern is how far ceilings drop overnight. Observations around the area indicate SCT-BKN 4,000 ft ceilings. Though, MOS expects VFR to prevail. There is enough concern that we introduced SCT025. But it`s certainly possible both sites could go MVFR with short notice overnight. If so, ceilings will rise back to VFR in the morning hours as ENE winds increase and become gusty. These winds are expected to ease late in the TAF time period. SAV: MVFR ceilings are being observed at this site along with nearby sites. This is due to light scattered showers moving onshore well to the south. While these showers could briefly approach or bring brief impacts overnight, confidence was not high enough to include SHRA or VCSH in the current TAF. Though, MVFR is expected to prevail overnight. Ceilings will rise back to VFR in the morning hours as the light shower threat dissipates, and ENE winds increase and become gusty. These winds are expected to ease late in the TAF time period. Extended aviation: Breezy northeast winds will continue late Sunday through Monday. Rain chances will increase Sunday into early next week which could bring the potential for periodic flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds across the Charleston Harbor have eased a few hours earlier than expected, so we dropped the Small Craft Advisory for that location. The remaining Small Craft Advisories are still in effect. Otherwise, behind the front that pushed through earlier, breezy northeasterly winds have been moved in producing gusts of 25-30 kts across our local waters. Expect seas 6-7 ft in the nearshore zones and 7-8 ft in the offshore zones. Sunday through Thursday: The overall setup will continue to feature high pressure centered off to the north with a pinched gradient across the local waters. This will drive continued northeast flow through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 knot range are expected into Monday, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. These conditions will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisories. Winds should gradually diminish Tuesday into Wednesday as the gradient relaxes. However, seas will remain elevated enough to keep the advisories going through Tuesday night. By Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will diminish even more as a cold front approaches from the west. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362- 364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284165 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:09 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 803 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light showers will move east to west across the state through late evening. - Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible on Sunday into Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Light rain showers have been steadily moving from east to west across central and southwest Florida this afternoon and evening. Radar is showing a few light showers remaining over central Florida, but the latest HRRR guidance shows shower coverage diminishing overnight as they move westward over the Gulf. Made some slight tweaks to POPs for the next 6 hours based on latest radar trends and HRRR guidance, otherwise forecast is tracking fine for now. On Sunday, shortwave energy will spread across Florida as a surface trough tries to form in the eastern Gulf. Precipitable water values are forecast to be 2+ inches and with the enhanced lift from the shortwave, numerous/widespread showers are in the forecast, along with a few storms. Best timing appears to be Sunday afternoon through early afternoon on Monday as these features slowly shift away from the area. As far as rainfall, we are under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, with widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast and about a 10-20% chance of rainfall totals over 3 inches through Monday night. Some minor flooding would be possible if larger amounts fell quickly, but impacts are expected to be limited otherwise. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Fast-moving light showers continue to stream east to west across central Florida, so will hold VCSH for TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ for the next few hours, then mostly rain-free at all locations overnight. Higher rain chances and a few storms return for Sunday, mainly in the afternoon, so will keep SHRA and VCTS at all locations during that time. East-northeast winds around 5-10 knots expected overnight, then becoming more gusty late morning and into the afternoon with some higher gusts around 18-20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday with scattered showers and storms possible. High pressure and drier weather returns for mid- week with winds diminishing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 81 70 82 / 30 70 50 40 FMY 74 84 71 84 / 20 70 50 60 GIF 72 82 69 83 / 40 70 60 60 SRQ 72 81 69 82 / 30 60 50 40 BKV 71 81 67 83 / 30 60 40 40 SPG 73 79 70 80 / 30 60 50 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1284164 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 758 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool conditions continue through the weekend. - Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the week. The next chance for rain likely doesn`t arrive until late Thursday or Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool conditions continue through the weekend. Large high pressure continues to be the primary driver of the pleasant days and cool nights through the weekend. Expecting another night of radiational cooling with calming winds and clear skies to significantly drop temperatures tonight and again Sunday night... overnight lows away from the coast likely drop into the mid 20s tonight and low to mid 30s Sunday night. 925mb temperatures warm significantly over the next 24 to 36 hours, up from +3C this morning t0 +10C by Sunday evening. This will jump start a warming trend for the week, with high temperatures Sunday expected to be slightly higher compared to today... in the upper 50s, possibly low 60s in the CT River Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the week. The next chance for rain likely doesn`t arrive until late Thursday or Friday. Mid level ridging and high pressure dominates the pattern through Thursday, continuing the period of dry weather. Anomalously high heights and mid-level temperatures will accompany the pattern favoring above normal temperatures through much of the week. 925mb temperatures ranging between +12 to +15C will yield high temperatures in the 60s each day. Highs around 70 are possible in areas with the highest probabilities Thursday as the mid-level thermal ridge axis shifts over. Ensemble guidance shows a consensus in a shift of the pattern late Thursday into Friday as a mid-level trough pushes into the region. This may be our next best shot at precipitation, sometime in the late Thursday-Saturday timeframe. However, there is still a considerable amount of spread across ensemble solutions and deterministic guidance with respect to the track of this trough and its surface features. This will influence details such as precip probabilities, timing, and amounts. Ensemble guidance highlights probabilities 50-75% for 24hr precipitation greater than 0.01", dropping off to low probabilities for greater than 0.5". The ECMWF ensemble has leaned wetter with probabilities closer to 60-80% for 0.01" or greater and moderate probabilities for greater than 0.1". Overall, there is potential for this to be our next chance for rain after a prolonged dry period although confidence is lower in the coverage, timing, and amounts of the rain at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 00z TAF Update: Tonight through Sunday Night: High confidence. VFR. Light NW to WNW winds thru 12z Sunday (calm at times, especially interior). Winds then shift to WSW/SW with speeds increasing to around 5-10 kt, stronger end of that range for eastern airports. Winds remain around 5-10 kt through Sunday night. Monday: High confidence. VFR. SW winds around 8-12 kt, with sporadic gusts to around low 20s kt range through 22z/sundown, then gusts ease. KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. SCAs have expired as winds have fallen below 25 kts across most of the waters. Seas gradually subside to 2-3 ft across most of the waters by midnight tonight. Continued high pressure will allow winds to weaken to 10 kt or less and seas to remain around 2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds around 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284163 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:06 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 756 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast. - There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road. - Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Current-Tonight... High pressure building over the eastern U.S. has continued a persistent pattern of gusty easterly winds and rounds of isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers. Despite cloudy conditions, temperatures have climbed a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 80s, and added humidity has produced peak heat index values in the upper 80s and low 90s. Looking toward the evening, expect mild temperatures in the mid 70s alongside a few quick passing showers for any Halloween plans. Wind gusts up to 20 mph will be possible at times, particularly near the coast. Building seas and rough surf are expected at local beaches this afternoon and evening. A High Surf Advisory takes effect at 5PM as large breaking waves increase to 5-7 ft through the overnight period. A high risk of rip currents continues. Sunday-Monday... Increasing moisture coupled with a passing disturbance aloft will drive a wet, unsettled period. Continued, breezy onshore flow should favor scattered onshore-moving showers early Sunday. Coverage of scattered to numerous showers and an occasional storm builds through the afternoon and evening as pulses of shortwave energy begin to pass aloft. Moderate to high rain chances then continue through the night Sunday and into Monday. Continuing to monitor a heavy rainfall threat through this period as high-res ensemble means begin to show localized accumulations of 3- 5 inches and 90th percentile values exceeding 5-7+ inches. A Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day, extending through portions of the interior, including the Orlando Metro on Monday. In addition to wet conditions, a number of coastal hazards will remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf. Entering the water is not advised! While coastal flooding concerns continue to slowly ease, model guidance at Lake Worth Pier continue to run near Moderate Flood Stage during the afternoon high tide cycle, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through at least Sunday afternoon. Cloudy conditions and increased rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below seasonal values, ranging the upper 70s and low 80s. Sunday morning temperatures remain mild in the low to mid 70s, warmest along the coast. A few degrees cooler Monday morning, mostly in the low 70s. Tuesday-Friday... A cold front tracks across the central U.S. into mid week, finally pushing a persistent area of high pressure offshore the eastern U.S. How the synoptic pattern then evolves becomes more uncertain as major deterministic models begin to diverge. Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but deep moisture should generally persist through at least Tuesday, continuing moderate rain chances. Reductions in rain chances are forecast into the following days as a drier air mass advects across the local area. High temperatures mostly in the mid 80s fall to mostly range the low 80s by the end of the work week. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 previous modified... As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters. ENE winds 15-25 kts last through Sunday. Seas build to 6-9 ft into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 733 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Isolated to scattered on-shore moving showers ongoing this evening, mainly from the Cape southward. This activity is forecast to continue through the overnight hours. Have maintained TEMPOs/PROB30s at MLB-SUA through 6Z due to chances for more frequent/prolonged impacts with SHRA. Easterly winds tonight will be 8-13 KT with gusts to around 20 KT, especially near the coast. Winds will increase to around 15KT with gusts 20-25 KT after 14Z. ISO- SCT SHRA forecast to continue into Sunday morning, the SHRA become SCT-NUM with ISO TSRA after 14Z. Have included VCTS starting at 16-17Z along the coast, and around 18Z along the interior. Activity becomes ISO-SCT SHRA Sunday evening and continuing through the overnight. Winds once again slacken Sunday evening to 8-12 KT with gusts to around 20 KT, mainly along the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 80 70 79 / 10 50 60 70 MCO 72 79 70 80 / 40 70 60 60 MLB 74 80 72 80 / 60 80 70 70 VRB 75 82 72 82 / 60 70 80 70 LEE 71 80 69 81 / 30 60 50 50 SFB 72 80 70 81 / 20 50 60 60 ORL 73 80 70 80 / 30 60 60 60 FPR 75 81 72 81 / 50 70 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284162 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:00 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 644 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers today, especially along and east of I-45. - Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday. - Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier thunderstorms possible. Autumn-like air behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Southeast Texas once again finds itself in a soupy atmosphere, with PWATs averaging ~1.70" areawide. Sfc dew points are primarily in the low 70s, with afternoon temperatures likely warming into the low 80s in most spots. It is a tropical airmass for your Halloween this year. Unlike yesterday, we do not have a robust synoptic system to provide large-scale lift. Nor do we have any meaningful shortwaves to provide lift. However, we do have a weak, southward drifting boundary along with diurnal forcings that should suffice for isolated to scattered shower activity. We used an NBM/HRRR/Global Deterministic blend to give us our ~30-40 PoPs (primarily along and east of I-45). PoPs are lower, but not non- existent, farther west, averaging 15-25% along the Brazos River. The water vapor rich atmosphere will only allow for minimal cooling overnight. Sunset temperatures are expected to average in the mid/upper 70s. By midnight, temperatures are expected to range from the low 70s south of I-10 and w/in the urban heat island, to upper 60s elsewhere. Not a bad temperature range for Halloween festivities. The first two days of November (Sunday / Monday) are looking quite warm and humid, with afternoon temperatures averaging in the mid 80s inland, and around 80 at the coast. A very active subtropical jet pattern is evident on water vapor imagery. A deep trough extends over the Pacific well west of California and Mexico. A strong, moist, diffluent sub-tropical jet ahead of the trough is pushing deep tropical moisture in the direction of SW CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper low is diving southward over the Pacific Northwest. The two features should phase together over western CONUS on Sunday-Monday. The subtropical jet will infuse the system with tropical moisture in the mid/upper levels, while deep LL flow from the Gulf will surge sfc tropical moisture northward over central CONUS. The Texas atmosphere should start to feel the lift from this system as it ejects eastward from the Rockies, with LL lee-side cyclogenesis expected over the plains. The set up described above is a heavy rain and severe thunderstorm red flag. But if the current guidance has anything to say about it, the overall synoptic dynamics are more likely to favor severe thunderstorms to the north of our region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is showing a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe weather over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas on Monday. But if you peer at the SPC convective outlook map, you`ll notice that a Level 1 of 5 risk is in effect over portions of central and western Texas down to the Mexico border on Monday. This is because the convergence along the trailing cold front coupled with an increasingly sheared environment should suffice for at least some deep convection along the boundary. Thus, we`ll have to monitor this front closely as it pushes into southeast Texas on Tuesday We think we`ll at least see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms push through the area on Tuesday. But we cannot rule out a few stronger thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. The air mass behind the front looks beautiful, with highs in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s. Our northern zones and rural cold spots are likely to dip into the 40s. Autumn should make a comeback in the front`s wake. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions prevail throughout our region for the time being. Similar to today, low-level moisture and light winds overnight bring widespread MVFR-IFR conditions (even LIFR for some sites) between 05-15Z Sunday. Both CIGs and VSBYs lower these flight conditions, but unlike CIGs, VSBYs improve following sunrise. The majority of our region returns to VFR by early Sunday afternoon. Light winds dominate the entirety of the TAF cycle - VRB, but generally from the E/NE. BSM && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally light easterly flow is expected through the weekend. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today. By Monday, winds veer southeasterly and start to increase, with moderately southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday. The front pushes offshore by Tuesday afternoon or evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the front. A locally stronger thunderstorm capable of 40+ knot gusts are possible. Gusty northwest winds are likely behind the front late Tuesday into Wednesday. Our current forecast shows 15-25 knot NW winds and 3-5 foot Gulf seas. However, winds and seas can sometimes over perform, especially when ocean temperatures remain on the warm side (mid/upper 70s). So we cannot rule out having to revise winds and seas upwards, especially if temperatures behind the front are looking a little colder. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 84 66 85 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 68 84 69 84 / 10 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 79 72 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284160 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:42 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 736 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 736 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Cloudy skies through Sunday morning with increasing chances for showers and possible rumbles of thunder. A shortwave trough with a surface Gulf low will be hugging the coast Sunday morning bringing rain chances to the region. Most of the heavier rain is expected to remain offshore, with light to moderate showers for our inland regions. Instability may be increased enough along the coast for a few rumbles of thunder during the day; however, no severe weather is expected. PoPs range from 20-40% in our Georgia counties. Elsewhere, rain chances are about 50-60% Sunday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s with the rain and cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s. As the Gulf low passes on Sunday, easterly winds will be gusting around 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The Gulf low will translate east through the night and exit our waters during the day on Monday. Rain chances will decrease through the day, and drier air will begin filtering in from the west. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms begins midweek as a large upper level trough enters the eastern CONUS. Rain chances will stick around through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures for the long term will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the 60s. Both of which remain above seasonable norms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Conditions will deteriorate overnight with lowering ceilings down to MVFR levels due to increasing moisture across the area. Scattered showers are also expected overnight with an increase in coverage for Sunday. A few patches of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as we head into Sunday, especially around ECP. Easterly winds will continue, occasionally gusting in the 15-20 knot range. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as the Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend that could produce about 0.5 inches of rainfall along the coast with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to approach the region by midweek. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 77 65 81 / 20 40 20 10 Panama City 68 76 65 80 / 50 60 20 10 Dothan 64 73 62 79 / 30 40 20 0 Albany 64 74 61 79 / 10 30 30 0 Valdosta 66 77 64 81 / 10 30 30 10 Cross City 69 79 66 82 / 30 40 30 30 Apalachicola 69 75 67 78 / 40 50 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751- 755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284159 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:39 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 633 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Sunday. - Dry, hot conditions expected through Halloween weekend. - Cold front early next week will bring cooler temperatures and a brief chance of rain, mainly near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected for Halloween festivities and Sunday into early Tuesday. A potent low pressure system swings through the Southern Plans Monday into Tuesday, kicking up a warm and breezy Monday, before sending a cold front through Deep South Texas on Tuesday with cooler temperatures and a brief medium (30-40 percent) chance of rain into Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are expected Thursday into the weekend. Another frontal boundary attempts a southern run late Friday through Saturday, with another brief low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain Friday and Saturday. Overall, rather seasonal conditions are expected to kick off the first week of November. Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and elevated astronomical tides continue to narrow beaches during high tide cycles through the weekend with conditions expected to improve Sunday into Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through tonight. Patchy to dense fog developed last night across the ranchlands and may develop again tonight with light to near calm winds. Cloud cover may prevent any dense fog from developing or settling in. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Through 00z Monday....The main weather concern for aviation ops during the 00z TAF cycle will be the potential for BR/FG, some of which could be patchy to dense in spots during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. Strong radiational cooling, calm winds, and some residual low level moisture could support the development of BR/FG later tonight at all three TAF sites. Any BR/FG that forms will have the capabilities of reducing cigs/vsbys down to MVFR-LIFR levels. Otherwise, expect for VFR conditions to prevail. Any FG/BR that develops should begin dissipating during the mid to late morning hours. Easterly winds 5-10 knots this evening will decrease and become calm tonight. An easterly component is expected to develop again during the day on Sunday with speeds between 5-10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Marine conditions continue to improve through the remainder of this weekend into early next week. Breezy winds across the bay may bring a brief period of Small Craft Caution conditions Monday afternoon. A cold front on Tuesday with breezy northerly winds may also kick up occasional SCEC conditions across the Gulf. Light onshore flow returns late week with another frontal boundary possible next weekend. The best chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms occurs with the frontal passage Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 89 74 90 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 76 83 / 0 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 72 88 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284158 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:27 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 721 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns River and ICWW. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 inches for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the front will shift southward to the Jacksonville vicinity and the I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland. With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour and along with gloomy cloud cover will make for dreadfully damp conditions overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun- Mon Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7- 2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I- 95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns next week. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing a relief to local coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Low stratus and vicinity showers will continue to impact SSI and the three Duval sites this evening. Gusts will begin to settle over the next hour or so, with winds of 5-10 knots overnight. Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots by mid-morning. && .MARINE... Strong high pressure ridging will wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week, bringing hazardous boating conditions. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east- northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 76 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 65 76 65 75 / 40 30 50 60 JAX 67 78 66 77 / 30 60 60 60 SGJ 71 78 68 76 / 10 40 60 70 GNV 69 80 66 81 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 80 67 81 / 20 30 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284157 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:24 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 618 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Trick-or-Treat weather will be a treat! Dry and temperatures in the 70s! - Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms. - Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Dry conditions will persist through the weekend until our next front. Our next cold front is expected to swing through early next week in association with a potent low that will progress through the southern Great Plains. There is still some disagreements on a few things such as timing and the extent of the associated front south. Though as it sits this will likely be our next chance for some activity. We`ll be able to get a better grasp on things when we get in the range of the CAMs. Therefore be sure check back for future updates. For Halloween locations will remain dry. Not only are we expected to be dry, but low temperatures will stay in the 70s/upper 60s with light winds Halloween night. Will have to continue to monitor the possibility for minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches into the weekend. This will be due to persistent onshore flow and elevated swell periods. An increased risk of rip currents will also persist. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Expect a return to MVFR/IFR conditions after 06Z across all but the LRD. Low ceilings will be the primary issue across the Brush Country, with areas of fog also developing as we move east over the Coastal Plains. Have included a mention for LIFR conditions for ALI, CRP, and VCT from 10Z-14Z. VFR conditions will return by late morning/midday Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally, light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through the weekend, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower will be possible through today. A front is expected to swing through early next week allowing rain chances to return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 69 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 65 83 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 70 87 71 90 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 67 87 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 70 84 72 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 68 86 69 90 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 68 87 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 82 75 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284153 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:12 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 710 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected. 2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected. Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures prevail across the local area this afternoon. A large area of high pressure has been building southward into the Mid-Atlantic behind last night`s (dry) cold front. Aloft, a large area of mid/upper-level clouds are streaming eastward ahead of a sprawling, diffuse shortwave trough. These clouds gradually overspread the area later today and persist through most of the weekend. However, there certainly will be some sunshine on Sunday. The weather also looks ideal for any evening festivities this Halloween with trick-or-treating temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, light winds, and dry conditions. Chilly tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except upper 40s to near 50 F at the immediate coast. Patchy frost is possible by tomorrow morning, but is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any advisories (plus it`ll be early November so the concern for minor impacts is lower). Temperatures warm a few degrees on Sunday and Monday, with highs ranging from mid 60s to lower 70s. The warmest temps will tend to occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping coastal locations a few degrees cooler. Temps warm further Tuesday as a NNW-SSE ridge axis moves overhead. Highs should be in the 70s for all of the area and interior portions of southern VA and NE NC could approach the upper 70s. While some rain chances existed for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe a few days ago, there is strong consensus among the global ensembles, AI guidance, and NBM on very low (<5%) PoPs, mainly due to unfavorable forcing aloft and dry low levels. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps ranging through the 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November. The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as that aforementioned ridge shifts offshore. A complex surface and upper-air pattern develops mid week, particularly over the central CONUS, with some potential for a few showers by late week as these features approach our area. In terms of the specifics, a strong low pressure system will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. As mentioned by my previous forecaster, there remains lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of this system. The probability of widespread rainfall (and beneficial amounts) seems to generally be decreasing and most of the ensembles show a relative minima in rainfall over our area. However, this still could change and we continue to advertise a general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into Friday. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 710 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening and will continue through the 00z TAF period. SCT/BKN high level clouds continue to stream into the region overnight. Light NE winds overnight become ENE 5-10 kt on Sunday. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Winds gradually diminish through this evening as high pressure builds across the region. - Seas remain elevated but below SCA levels through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure (~1034 mb) centered over the eastern Great Lakes continues to ridge into the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish through this evening as the high settles over the area tonight. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay remain ~2-3 ft, while seas have dropped to 3-4 ft north and 4-5 ft south of Cape Charles. The remaining SCA south of Cape Charles is still on track to expire early this evening. Dry and relatively benign boating conditions will prevail through midweek, though light onshore flow (E-NE 5-10 kt, veering E-SE later Monday and Tuesday) will maintain 2-4 ft seas on the ocean and 1-2 ft waves on the Bay tonight through Tuesday. By Wednesday, developing low pressure looks to track north along the Gulf Stream and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through late week. This could bring welcome rain to the region Thursday and Friday, along with building seas and an extended period of SCA conditions for the coastal waters and lower Bay from Wednesday night through Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1284152 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:54 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 647 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 640 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance over the E Gulf reaching the Florida peninsula later tonight into Sunday. POPs/Wx NBM coverage has been in an upward trend during the past several iterations, with latest solutions pushing max POPs into the 70-80% range for much of SoFlo Sunday afternoon. The increasing instability and dynamic forcing ahead of the disturbance will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, starting Sunday morning. Model PWATs show 2+ inches, along with steeper lapse rates and increasing CAPE. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of SoFlo on Sunday, which is level 1 of 4. But for the Atlantic metro areas the risk increases to slight Sunday afternoon, which is level 2 of 4. An important factor is the saturated soils across the area from all the rain of the past several days, especially the developed-concrete urban areas, where localized flooding impacts are expected. An isolated flash flooding event or two are certainly possible with the heaviest downpours, training of cells, and with slow or stationary storms. The ongoing coastal hazards are expected to continue through Sunday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect. Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low- level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The periods of lower cloud decks and passing showers will likely continue tonight, bringing brief MVFR cigs/vis. Then showers become widespread Sunday afternoon with possible IFR periods accompanying the heaviest rain/storms. ENE winds will generally range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 82 74 82 / 70 70 80 80 West Kendall 76 84 74 83 / 60 70 70 80 Opa-Locka 75 83 74 83 / 70 80 80 80 Homestead 76 84 74 84 / 60 70 70 80 Fort Lauderdale 75 81 73 81 / 80 80 80 80 N Ft Lauderdale 75 82 74 82 / 70 80 80 80 Pembroke Pines 75 84 73 83 / 70 80 70 80 West Palm Beach 75 82 72 82 / 60 60 70 80 Boca Raton 75 81 73 81 / 70 70 80 80 Naples 73 84 71 83 / 20 80 50 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284151 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:48 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 631 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the near shore coastal waters a few hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend. 2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South. Marine: Northeasterly winds and seas will gradually subside through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the weekend bringing northeast flow and cooler but seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could. KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance continues to vary drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential. While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pred VFR conditions expected through the period with sct-bkn mid and high clouds. NE winds will diminish tonight but light winds and a sufficiently dry airmass is expected to preclude fog development. NE winds continue Sunday but won`t be quite as gusty. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the potential. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build into the region into early next week bringing NE winds across the waters. Winds currently around 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 25-30 kt are mainly confined to the coastal waters closer south of Cape Hatteras, especially near the Gulf Stream. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft for the nearshore waters and up to around 8 ft across the offshore waters. Winds diminish to around 10-20 kt overnight into Sunday, highest across of Onslow Bay where gusts up to 25 kt may continue. Seas are a foot or so higher than wave guidance across the nearshore waters and have extended the SCA a few hours to allow for a slower subsidence. Seas will be around 3-5 ft across the nearshore coastal waters Sunday into Monday, though continue around 5-7 ft across the outer coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras. Outlook (Sunday night through Thursday): Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158. && $$ |
| #1284150 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:27 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 319 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Wind speeds will slack off some over the Gulf but expect them to remain out of the east through Monday and pick back up to 15 to 20 knot mainly over open gulf waters. This will continue to create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Rain has already returned to a few locations today but the remainder of the afternoon and thius evening there could be a little more storms the previously thoguht and over the western/northwestern portions of the outlook area. This would likely occur during prime Trick-or-Treating time and there could even be a few very isolated pockets of rainfall amounts greater than 3". - Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Remnants of once Hurricane Vance had spread out and moved across the region earlier but is now starting to speed away to the north and east. This appears to have finally eroded/nudged the ridge away enough to get some rain over the CWA. The large area of rain to our west/southwest overnight and early this morning looked like it hit a brick wall as it moved into south- central LA. Our ridge was stubborn and just wouldn`t allow that rain to move in but it looks like it has weakened enough finally. This still doesn`t make the forecast any easier for the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. Moisture was quickly recovering with this mornings sounding showing PW`s already around 1.6" and GOES TPW showing anywhere from 1.7 to 1.9 trying to push into the area. This is already around the top 10% so moisture is not in question. The question is forcing, lift, and instability. One big issue is the lack of any real focus or forcing mechanism in the LL. Instability may be a little higher than previously expected thanks to enough breaks in the clouds to allow a good chunk of the area to get into the lower 80s and some possibly in the mid 80s before we are done. A few other things that appear to be favorable for showers and even thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and evening, one is the nose of the mid level jet moving into central TX right now. It should approach the western portions of the area around 23/00z. This doesn`t look like it is being handled well by any of the models as they all look to be faster with it and farther north but tracking back for a few hours with GOES WV shows it is moving more easterly and not lifting as much and it could provide a little more lift than what models were thinking earlier. Second feature which has been mentioned before is the upper jet dropping SSE into the Gulf this afternoon and this evening. This is going to provide very favorable upper level diffluent pattern over the area between 22Z and 06Z which will likely lead to very efficient storms should any develop. This all suggests that there is still a window for more numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms some of which could actually develop heavy rain. That said confidence is not extremely high. Again we lack any significant focus or forcing feature and if that mid lvl jet does start to nudge more north or get blocked by weak ridging behind last night and this mornings disturbance then rain will struggle however, last few hours are starting to make me think we may have a little more activity than previously thought. Just mentioned the disturbance (partial remnants of Vance) are departing and models had been showing not necessarily s/w ridging but definitely some increase in hghts and suppression behind it but latest analysis shows those mid lvl hghts are not rising and and even slightly falling. This is likely what has finally led to some rain develop over the area but with that I feel a little better about that lift getting into the region later. With that I am anticipating a little more activity over the northwestern/western portions of the CWA especially around the BTR metro and the problem is that this could occur right at prime Trick-or-Treating time. Right now it looks like between 22z and 04z would be the time where we would see the greatest amount of activity. Again not expecting widespread heavy rain but there definitely could be pockets of some heavier rain possibly greater than 3" and it now looks like that could be over portions of SELA along and north of I-10 and into portions of swMS. That is in stark contrast to where the earlier thoughts of the heavier rain potential being across coastal MS but if we get this tonight over the western 2/3rds of the CWA it would likely die off before getting into coastal MS and then that redevelopment overnight we previously thought was possible would likely occur tomorrow but be farther east and southeast possibly completely out of the area and into AL and the Gulf. Still anticipate a few showers and thunderstorms tomorrow early but we should begin to dry out tomorrow afternoon with ridging quickly building in. Our next weather maker is already starting to slowly take shape but it is a complete mess right now. By Monday it should be a rather deep L/W trough having just crossed the Continental Divide while mid lvl ridging dominates the region. As we heading into Election day things start to pick back up but the forecast is definitely not clear cut and confidence honestly has taken a bit of a hit with the latest medium range model guidance. /CAB/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Focus on the extended portion of the forecast is our system Tuesday and into Wednesday. Models had come into much better agreement the last few days well there is definitely some disagreements with respect o how they handle the mid lvl pattern and the multitude of features. This has lowered confidence quite considerably in the forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will still see a pretty decent system along with a front which will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area the question though is timing and intensity. Because of that there were NO adjustments from the latest NBM. Models are struggling with how to handle everything with respect to the large L/W trough off the west coast and the mid lvl jet coming out of the east Pac and merging into it tomorrow night over the 4 corners region. Typically with that much wind and most of the mid lvl jet downstream of the trough axis it should want to pull the trough north/lift it out and along with that most of the dynamics. There are some issues though. There will still be some strong mid lvl winds upstream of the trough axis and then there may be another strong s/w diving south out of Canada Monday night and into Tuesday. A few different options then occur. First if that strong s/w develops and dives south out of Canada it would cause the L/W trough to rapidly close off and much farther north, over the north-central CONUS. This would then leave a much weaker trough axis at the base moving into the Lower MS Valley maybe even be held back to the southwest leading to a slower time frame. This also has any sfc reflection well north of the area and not much of a front moving into the region. We would still see rain and some thunderstorms but the risk for strong to severe storms would greatly be reduced. This also may keep a good chunk of Election day on the drier side thanks to a slower time frame. Another option would be if that s/w doesn`t develop or is much weaker as it drops south. It still looks like the trough would close off given all of the energy that merges with it over the 4 corners but it would be a much broader closed low and it would close off farther to the southwest. This would lead to a much more defined and sharper trough axis and possibly even take on a negative tilt as it tries to move through Tuesday night. The main associated sfc low would still be well north but there would likely be a weak wave along the front farther south closer to the region. This scenario would continue to lead to the threat of strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rain. It also has more potential for showers and maybe some embedded thunderstorms during the day which would impact voting sites. Right now this system is still in the Pacific and with this much energy the models are struggling. We should hopefully begin to tighten things up tomorrow as it finally begins to move into the upper air network we start to get some better data and sampling. With that like was said earlier stuck with the NBM which has high PoPs Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and then tapering off during the day Wednesday. Rainfall amounts being advertised right now is not overlie impressive but those will get adjusted as well depending on how thins evolve. After this move through we move into more zonal flow and and dry out the rest of the work week. /CAB/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 We are strating to see some MVFR cigs develop as low clouds and even some rain have developed. OVer the next 6 hours it may be a little intersting as aactivity could pick up over the western half of the CWA impacting mostly BTR between 22 and 4z. Storms would impact other temrinals across SELA along with MCB between 23 and 5z. These storms would bring at least MVFR cigs and vsbys but if the rain gets heard enough vsbys could fall into IFR status for short time. Right now we aren`t explicitly showing IFR conditions but the most likely candidates would be BTR and MCB. Conditions would improve somehwat overnight but still expect MVFR cigs over most of the terminals tonight. /CAB/ && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters may see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Winds look like they slack off tonight enough to keep headlines out for now but there is a good chance the outer waters will need SCS headlines again Sunday and possibly through Monday. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores through the remainder of the weekend. We are already seeing some showers and a few thunderstorms which will continue tonight and Sunday as a weak disturbance passes through. /CAB/ && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ086. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284149 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 408 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 402 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 402 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Model consensus remains consistent in showing a mid-lvl disturbance over the E Gulf reaching the Florida peninsula later tonight into Sunday. POPs/Wx NBM coverage has been in an upward trend during the past several iterations, with latest solutions pushing max POPs into the 70-80% range for much of SoFlo Sunday afternoon. The increasing instability and dynamic forcing ahead of the disturbance will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, starting Sunday morning. Model PWATs show 2+ inches, along with steeper lapse rates and increasing CAPE. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) keeps a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most of SoFlo on Sunday, which is level 1 of 4. But for the Atlantic metro areas the risk increases to slight Sunday afternoon, which is level 2 of 4. An important factor is the saturated soils across the area from all the rain of the past several days, especially the developed-concrete urban areas, where localized flooding impacts are expected. An isolated flash flooding event or two are certainly possible with the heaviest downpours, training of cells, and with slow or stationary storms. The ongoing coaqstal hazards are expected to continue through Sunday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect. Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low- level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Periods of lower cloud decks and passing showers will continue to bring MVFR cigs/vis through 00Z, and likely through the overnight hours. ENE winds will generally range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible throughout the TAF period. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will become numerous on Sunday, with possible periods of MVFR/IFR at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 82 74 82 / 70 70 80 80 West Kendall 76 84 74 83 / 60 70 70 80 Opa-Locka 75 83 74 83 / 70 80 80 80 Homestead 76 84 74 84 / 60 70 70 80 Fort Lauderdale 75 81 73 81 / 80 80 80 80 N Ft Lauderdale 75 82 74 82 / 70 80 80 80 Pembroke Pines 75 84 73 83 / 70 80 70 80 West Palm Beach 75 82 72 82 / 60 60 70 80 Boca Raton 75 81 73 81 / 70 70 80 80 Naples 73 84 71 83 / 20 80 50 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284147 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 352 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and cool conditions continue through the weekend. - Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the week. The next chance for rain likely doesn`t arrive until late Thursday or Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and cool conditions continue through the weekend. Large high pressure continues to be the primary driver of the pleasant days and cool nights through the weekend. Expecting another night of radiational cooling with calming winds and clear skies to significantly drop temperatures tonight and again Sunday night... overnight lows away from the coast likely drop into the mid 20s tonight and low to mid 30s Sunday night. 925mb temperatures warm significantly over the next 24 to 36 hours, up from +3C this morning t0 +10C by Sunday evening. This will jump start a warming trend for the week, with high temperatures Sunday expected to be slightly higher compared to today... in the upper 50s, possibly low 60s in the CT River Valley. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry, seasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the week. The next chance for rain likely doesn`t arrive until late Thursday or Friday. Mid level ridging and high pressure dominates the pattern through Thursday, continuing the period of dry weather. Anomalously high heights and mid-level temperatures will accompany the pattern favoring above normal temperatures through much of the week. 925mb temperatures ranging between +12 to +15C will yield high temperatures in the 60s each day. Highs around 70 are possible in areas with the highest probabilities Thursday as the mid-level thermal ridge axis shifts over. Ensemble guidance shows a consensus in a shift of the pattern late Thursday into Friday as a mid-level trough pushes into the region. This may be our next best shot at precipitation, sometime in the late Thursday-Saturday timeframe. However, there is still a considerable amount of spread across ensemble solutions and deterministic guidance with respect to the track of this trough and its surface features. This will influence details such as precip probabilities, timing, and amounts. Ensemble guidance highlights probabilities 50-75% for 24hr precipitation greater than 0.01", dropping off to low probabilities for greater than 0.5". The ECMWF ensemble has leaned wetter with probabilities closer to 60-80% for 0.01" or greater and moderate probabilities for greater than 0.1". Overall, there is potential for this to be our next chance for rain after a prolonged dry period although confidence is lower in the coverage, timing, and amounts of the rain at this point. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Through Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds around 10-15 kt with sporadic gusts around 20 kts easing in the early afternoon. Winds then go light WNW/calm overnight before increasing from the SW to 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Sunday...High confidence. SCAs have expired as winds have fallen below 25 kts across most of the waters. Seas gradually subside to 2-3 ft across most of the waters by midnight tonight. Continued high pressure will allow winds to weaken to 10 kt or less and seas to remain around 2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds around 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ |
| #1284146 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 321 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Cloudy skies through Sunday morning with increasing chances for showers and possible rumbles of thunder. A shortwave trough with a surface Gulf low will be hugging the coast Sunday morning bringing rain chances to the region. Most of the heavier rain is expected to remain offshore, with light to moderate showers for our inland regions. Instability may be increased enough along the coast for a few rumbles of thunder during the day; however, no severe weather is expected. PoPs range from 20-40% in our Georgia counties. Elsewhere, rain chances are about 50-60% Sunday. Temperatures will generally be in the mid to upper 70s with the rain and cloud cover. Lows Sunday night will be in the low to mid 60s. As the Gulf low passes on Sunday, easterly winds will be gusting around 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The Gulf low will translate east through the night and exit our waters during the day on Monday. Rain chances will decrease through the day, and drier air will begin filtering in from the west. Another chance for showers and thunderstorms begins midweek as a large upper level trough enters the eastern CONUS. Rain chances will stick around through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures for the long term will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the 60s. Both of which remain above seasonable norms. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today with MVFR to IFR conditions and rain showers moving in late tonight and tomorrow. There is a small chance for thunderstorms, mainly at KDHN, KTLH, and KECP but it is too small to include in the taf for now. Breezy ENE to E winds are expected to continue through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Easterly winds will be producing Advisory level conditions through the rest of the weekend, as the Gulf low traverses east and over the peninsula by Monday. Winds and seas will diminish following the passage of the low pressure system, returning to more moderate breezes by Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 319 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend that could produce about 0.5 inches of rainfall along the coast with isolated higher amounts up to an inch. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to approach the region by midweek. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 77 65 81 / 20 40 20 10 Panama City 68 76 65 80 / 50 60 20 10 Dothan 64 73 62 79 / 30 40 20 0 Albany 64 74 61 79 / 10 30 30 0 Valdosta 66 77 64 81 / 10 30 30 10 Cross City 69 79 66 82 / 30 40 30 30 Apalachicola 69 75 67 78 / 40 50 30 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284145 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:24 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 323 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates will be slow, especially in the Upper Keys. - Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes may freshen to moderate to fresh tonight, but are expected to slacken again tomorrow. - A wet, stormy period is expected tonight through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall, if timed with high tides, may exacerbate coastal flooding hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A broad high pressure system set up over New England and Pennsylvania. Breezes along the Florida Peninsula freshened last night as the pressure gradient tightened, and the high developed enough to finally push breezes across the Keys back to east- southeasterly. Keys residents could feel the increase in humidity by stepping outside. Dew points across the Keys rose into the upper 70s. Satellite derived Advected Layer PWAT late this afternoon showed an increasing amount of moisture in the 700 to 500 mb layer. This lined up temporally with the development of thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. The environment was in the process of destabilizing and more than sufficient moisture is present. All the environment lacks is a source of lift to organize showers. An upper level trough, the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance, moved over the northwestern Gulf last night. This shortwave will be able to travel along the Gulf Coast and provide a source of upper level divergence starting early tomorrow morning. The challenge with this trough is that the forcing will not be focused. Ongoing wind convergence south of the Keys is broad. Statistical guidance suggests PoPs may be able to approach 80 percent for portions of the Keys. However, the developing pattern is not one that will last for a long period of time. The region of enhanced divergence will move west of the Keys as early as Monday night. While November may start out with a burst of rainy season weather, we are steadily approaching the dry season. Once the wet period comes to an end, the forecast for next week becomes more uncertain. While broad layer ridging is expected to prevail across the eastern United States, a strong mid latitude trough is on track to develop over the Great Plains. Exactly how much this trough is able to weaken the ridge is uncertain, and model ensembles are not favoring one solution over another. In essence, the ensembles are moderating the more extreme solutions. Statistical guidance suggests a weak cold front may move across the Keys late next week, but there is no agreement on the timing or magnitude. Check back later, because we will have a better idea of this frontal system after this weekend`s bout of moisture. && .MARINE... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds headlines are in effect for the waters of Florida Bay, Bayside and Gulfside waters, Eastern Hawk Channel, and the eastern Straits of Florida. No additional watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. From synopsis: a broad area of high pressure over the eastern United States will sustain gentle to moderate, occasionally fresh, breezes across the FLorida Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution for increasing winds headlines are in effect for portions of the marine zones tonight. Breezes are on track to slacken tomorrow, but stronger winds along the east coast will generate a higher northerly swell for the waters south of the Upper Keys. Expect breezes to slacken during the weekend with light to gentle breezes possible midweek. Shower chances will be elevated through Monday with the peak expected on Sunday. Drier conditions will be able to set up during the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 320 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the upcoming period. Deep tropical moisture returned to the Keys, and thus rounds of VCSH are required in the TAFs. IFR to MVFR conditions are possible near SHRA, with the heaviest SHRA capable of LIFR VIS. Expect showers to be short lived with VIS and CIGs clearing outside of rainfall. Near surface winds outside of showers will remain east to southeasterly near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 83 75 83 / 70 80 70 50 Marathon 77 84 76 83 / 70 70 70 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284144 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:03 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast. - There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road. - Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Current-Tonight... High pressure building over the eastern U.S. has continued a persistent pattern of gusty easterly winds and rounds of isolated to widely scattered onshore moving showers. Despite cloudy conditions, temperatures have climbed a few degrees above normal, mostly in the low to mid 80s, and added humidity has produced peak heat index values in the upper 80s and low 90s. Looking toward the evening, expect mild temperatures in the mid 70s alongside a few quick passing showers for any Halloween plans. Wind gusts up to 20 mph will be possible at times, particularly near the coast. Building seas and rough surf are expected at local beaches this afternoon and evening. A High Surf Advisory takes effect at 5PM as large breaking waves increase to 5-7 ft through the overnight period. A high risk of rip currents continues. Sunday-Monday... Increasing moisture coupled with a passing disturbance aloft will drive a wet, unsettled period. Continued, breezy onshore flow should favor scattered onshore-moving showers early Sunday. Coverage of scattered to numerous showers and an occasional storm builds through the afternoon and evening as pulses of shortwave energy begin to pass aloft. Moderate to high rain chances then continue through the night Sunday and into Monday. Continuing to monitor a heavy rainfall threat through this period as high-res ensemble means begin to show localized accumulations of 3- 5 inches and 90th percentile values exceeding 5-7+ inches. A Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall exists along the coast each day, extending through portions of the interior, including the Orlando Metro on Monday. In addition to wet conditions, a number of coastal hazards will remain present at area beaches. A high risk of life-threatening rip currents continues alongside large breaking waves and rough surf. Entering the water is not advised! While coastal flooding concerns continue to slowly ease, model guidance at Lake Worth Pier continue to run near Moderate Flood Stage during the afternoon high tide cycle, and a Coastal Flood Advisory will continue through at least Sunday afternoon. Cloudy conditions and increased rain chances will keep afternoon temperatures slightly below seasonal values, ranging the upper 70s and low 80s. Sunday morning temperatures remain mild in the low to mid 70s, warmest along the coast. A few degrees cooler Monday morning, mostly in the low 70s. Tuesday-Friday... A cold front tracks across the central U.S. into mid week, finally pushing a persistent area of high pressure offshore the eastern U.S. How the synoptic pattern then evolves becomes more uncertain as major deterministic models begin to diverge. Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but deep moisture should generally persist through at least Tuesday, continuing moderate rain chances. Reductions in rain chances are forecast into the following days as a drier air mass advects across the local area. High temperatures mostly in the mid 80s fall to mostly range the low 80s by the end of the work week. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 previous modified... As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all legs of the local Atlantic waters. ENE winds 15-25 kts last through Sunday. Seas build to 6-9 ft into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A weak east coast sea breeze is enhancing onshore flow a bit this afternoon, producing winds around 15 kts gusting to around 25 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA have develop in this flow, producing brief MVFR CIGS and IFR VIS reductions. Guidance is indicating a loosely organized and persistent band of SHRA may develop across portions of ECFL from later this afternoon into the overnight. Keeping with VC mention at most TAFs, but have continued or added TEMPOs/PROB30s at KTIX- KSUA with some timing adjustment due to chances for more frequent/prolonged impacts. Winds ease to 8-13 kts overnight, closer to the higher end with continued gusts to around 20 kts along the coast, then pick back up again after 14Z Sunday. ISO-SCT SHRA forecast to continue into Sunday morning, the SHRA become SCT-NUM with ISO TSRA after 14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 80 70 79 / 10 50 60 70 MCO 72 79 70 80 / 40 70 60 60 MLB 74 80 72 80 / 60 80 70 70 VRB 75 82 72 82 / 60 70 80 70 LEE 71 80 69 81 / 30 60 50 50 SFB 72 80 70 81 / 20 50 60 60 ORL 73 80 70 80 / 30 60 60 60 FPR 75 81 72 81 / 50 70 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164- 347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550-552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284143 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 248 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The Coastal Flood Advisory for this afternoon`s high tide cycle has been cancelled, as levels are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. 2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. The local area will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure centered off to the NE through at least early next week leading to several days of quiet, dry weather with temps near normal. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast during the daytime periods. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. As sfc high pressure pushes farther offshore during the middle of next week, the upr-level pattern will start to transition as a deeper trough approaches from the west. Although forecast spread in regards to both upr-level heights and precipitable water remains high in this more amplifying pattern, southerly return flow would support an increase in rain chances later in the week. Latest forecast calls for a 30-40% of rain Thursday and Friday, with a dry forecast before then, aside from offshore where chances for showers are higher. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR through the 18Z TAF period with no chance of rain and just some scattered to broken high clouds. NE winds averaging around 10 kt persist, gusting higher at times. Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers by Thursday. && .MARINE... With sfc high pressure locked in place to the N/NE, moderate NE flow will continue over the waters. A SCA remains in effect for all coastal waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal. The headline now ends late Sunday night, when seas should dip below 6 ft with gusts decreasing to below 25 kt. Not much change into the first half of next week, with ~20 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas continuing through at least Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256. && $$ |
| #1284142 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:57 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 253 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected. 2) A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday, but no rain is expected. Mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures prevail across the local area this afternoon. A large area of high pressure has been building southward into the Mid-Atlantic behind last night`s (dry) cold front. Aloft, a large area of mid/upper-level clouds are streaming eastward ahead of a sprawling, diffuse shortwave trough. These clouds gradually overspread the area later today and persist through most of the weekend. However, there certainly will be some sunshine on Sunday. The weather also looks ideal for any evening festivities this Halloween with trick-or-treating temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s, light winds, and dry conditions. Chilly tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, except upper 40s to near 50 F at the immediate coast. Patchy frost is possible by tomorrow morning, but is not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any advisories (plus it`ll be early November so the concern for minor impacts is lower). Temperatures warm a few degrees on Sunday and Monday, with highs ranging from mid 60s to lower 70s. The warmest temps will tend to occur away from the coast due to continuing onshore flow keeping coastal locations a few degrees cooler. Temps warm further Tuesday as a NNW-SSE ridge axis moves overhead. Highs should be in the 70s for all of the area and interior portions of southern VA and NE NC could approach the upper 70s. While some rain chances existed for the Monday-Tuesday timeframe a few days ago, there is strong consensus among the global ensembles, AI guidance, and NBM on very low (<5%) PoPs, mainly due to unfavorable forcing aloft and dry low levels. Warm again on Wednesday with high temps ranging through the 70s. KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance for showers returns Thursday and Friday, but confidence remains low. Above average temperatures are also expected to continue through at least the first few days of November. The seasonably warm temperatures continue into mid-late week as that aforementioned ridge shifts offshore. A complex surface and upper-air pattern develops mid week, particularly over the central CONUS, with some potential for a few showers by late week as these features approach our area. In terms of the specifics, a strong low pressure system will initially move from the Rockies into the northern Plains and Midwest early in the week, while a trailing cold front eventually tries to advance toward the area in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. As mentioned by my previous forecaster, there remains lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of this system. The probability of widespread rainfall (and beneficial amounts) seems to generally be decreasing and most of the ensembles show a relative minima in rainfall over our area. However, this still could change and we continue to advertise a general 40-50% PoP from Thursday morning into Friday. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Cloud cover will be SCT-BKN high clouds and should increase late this afternoon and evening and persist through the remainder of the period. NE 5-10 kt winds become 5 kt or less tonight, before increasing again by later Sunday morning. Other than very shallow ground fog, not expecting any VSBY restrictions tonight. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low. && .MARINE... As of 220 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Winds gradually diminish through this evening as high pressure builds across the region. - Seas remain elevated but below SCA levels through the first half of the upcoming week. High pressure (~1034 mb) centered over the eastern Great Lakes continues to ridge into the lower Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds will continue to diminish through this evening as the high settles over the area tonight. Waves on the Chesapeake Bay remain ~2-3 ft, while seas have dropped to 3-4 ft north and 4-5 ft south of Cape Charles. The remaining SCA south of Cape Charles is still on track to expire early this evening. Dry and relatively benign boating conditions will prevail through midweek, though light onshore flow (E-NE 5-10 kt, veering E-SE later Monday and Tuesday) will maintain 2-4 ft seas on the ocean and 1-2 ft waves on the Bay tonight through Tuesday. By Wednesday, developing low pressure looks to track north along the Gulf Stream and offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast through late week. This could bring welcome rain to the region Thursday and Friday, along with building seas and an extended period of SCA conditions for the coastal waters and lower Bay from Wednesday night through Friday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ658. && $$ |
| #1284140 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 136 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Rain chances increase into this evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with rough surf expected. There is a small chance of minor coastal flooding tonight. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Through Tuesday night, an upper level shortwave trough currently moving over the Mississippi River passes over the forecast area later today through Sunday. Moisture levels have increased into the 1.4"-1.6" range at this time and are expected to rise into the 1.8"-2.0" range tonight as winds in the 900-700mb range shift to more southeasterly, bringing increasing amounts moisture inland. Surface high pressure is advertised hanging tough over the Mid- Atlantic region, limiting the best moisture return to the western half of the forecast area and points west. Model soundings show modest instability (MUCapes topping out around 1000J/kg), with mid level height falls limited with the trough. Looking at possible impacts with this first system, limited instability combines with modest wind shear (Bulk Wind Shear of 20-25kts). Helicities by themselves are rising into the 200-250 m^2/s^s range, mainly over areas north of Highway 84. The best instability is limited to southern MS and coastal Al, well separated from the better helicities. Any 850mb jet to help destabilize the lower levels of the atmosphere is indicated to be east of the forecast area. All in all, the chance of strong to severe storms is expected to be low due this mis-match placement of ingredients. With high moisture levels, there is a low possiblity of water issues, mainly Sunday and in poor drainage areas closer to the coast, and from training cells. The latest Drought Monitor shows Abnormally dry to Moderate Drought conditions north of our coastal counties, helping to temper water issues over these areas. Later Sunday night into Wednesday, guidance is advertising another shortwave trough/closed low moving to the Mississippi River. Guidance is inconsistent with the organization with the upper dynamics inconsistent in the guidance. Some of the guidance is advertising the upper dynamics, whether trough or close low, taking a negative tilt as it moves over the Southeast. With inconsistent timing and placement of the ingredients, will have to take a will monitor attitude for now. After this second system passes, the Southeast comes under zonal upper flow heading into the weekend, with a dry forecast indicated. Taking a look at coastal areas, a High Risk of rip currents is maintained through the rest of the week, before decreasing to Moderate Wednesday into Thursday as east to southeast flow decreases. With the tidal range at its maximum the next 24hrs and decreasing, there is some concern of a High Surface Advisory or Coastal Flood Advisory being needed. With P-ETTS based forecast data adverting a less than 10% of the water levels approaching minor inundation levels, less of exceeding, will monitor for now. Also, surf heights on area beaches are expected to be rough, but remain below High Surf Advisory criteria. /16 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Mostly VFR ceilings over the area with some occasional MVFR ceilings continuing to to move into areas along the coast this afternoon. Scattered rain showers return late tonight and into tomorrow morning bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail by early Sunday morning. Winds continue to be east-southeast today around 10 knots with some periodically higher gusts. Winds wane overnight to around 5 knots and prevail easterly by early tomorrow morning at at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots, especially closer to the coast. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate to strong easterly flow will continue into the coming week. Winds will shift to southeasterly Tuesday into Tuesday night as a system approaches the area from the west. Winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week after the systems passage. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 67 77 65 79 / 40 60 20 10 Pensacola 69 77 67 79 / 30 60 20 10 Destin 68 77 66 79 / 50 60 20 10 Evergreen 63 74 60 78 / 30 60 20 0 Waynesboro 63 76 61 79 / 60 60 20 10 Camden 62 72 60 76 / 40 60 30 0 Crestview 65 77 62 80 / 30 70 10 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1284138 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 224 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Deep layer ridging covers the Southeast and much of the center of the country, with a shortwave over eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley. Ensembles generally bring the shortwave through the Southeast overnight tonight through Monday morning, and only gradually nudge the low-level ridge axis northeastward. Then, ridging briefly builds back over the Southeast before a stronger frontal system reaches and crosses through the Southeast mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The continued strong easterly flow at the base of the low-level ridge will keep the coastal trough in place and allow for scattered showers to move inland today and tonight. While the probability of rainfall across south Florida is high, the scattered nature of the showers makes it difficult to pinpoint where and when a location may be impacted by a passing shower. The one thing hi-res guidance does agree on is that the highest probability of heavier rainfall is in the late night/early morning hours (within training bands) with mostly light to moderate showers during the daytime. Additionally, with the exception of any training, showers should be rather brief since the steady easterly flow is expected to keep showers moving quickly. The deep-layer forcing associated with the approaching shortwave is forecast to arrive late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. The primary expectation is more widespread rainfall with the assist from the large-scale ascent and high PWATs. With the low-level easterly flow expected to continue (and the associated trough remaining in place), the pattern of west-east oriented bands of heavier precip will likely continue but be enhanced by the support aloft. For these reasons the WPC has outlooked much of the Florida east coast with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Essentially this is a level 2/4 risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding potential. On average across South Florida, a reasonable worst case QPF would be on the order of 1.5-2", but wherever an W/E oriented band sets up, the reasonable worst case jumps closer to 3- 5". With those amounts likely to fall over the course of 1-3 hours, there would be a slight flash flooding risk. Since this risk runs through the overnight hours Sunday, into early Monday morning, WPC keeps the FL east coast under a Slight Risk in Monday`s outlook as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low- level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 220 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Periods of lower cloud decks and passing showers will continue to bring MVFR cigs/vis through 00Z, and likely through the overnight hours. ENE winds will generally range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible throughout the TAF period. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will become numerous on Sunday, with possible periods of MVFR/IFR at all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 82 74 83 / 60 90 80 80 West Kendall 76 84 74 84 / 50 90 80 80 Opa-Locka 75 83 73 84 / 60 80 80 80 Homestead 76 84 74 85 / 60 90 80 80 Fort Lauderdale 75 81 73 82 / 70 90 90 90 N Ft Lauderdale 75 82 73 82 / 70 90 90 90 Pembroke Pines 75 84 73 84 / 60 90 80 90 West Palm Beach 75 82 72 82 / 50 70 80 90 Boca Raton 75 82 73 82 / 60 80 90 90 Naples 73 84 71 84 / 20 80 60 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284137 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:39 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 228 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers will move east to west across the state through the rest of the day. - Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Ridging aloft remains over the state this afternoon with shortwave energy moving along the northern Gulf coast toward the region. At the surface, high pressure is centered across the mid-Atlantic states and is ridging southward across Florida, keeping a low-level east-northeast wind flow in place. Hi-res guidance has so far struggled with the light rain that has been moving southeast to northwest across the central part of the state but would expect additional light rain to continue to form and shift westward through the rest of the day and possibly into tonight in the easterly boundary layer flow, though impacts would be more of a nuisance than anything. For tonight into Sunday, shortwave energy will spread across Florida as a surface trough tries to form in the eastern Gulf. Precipitable water values are forecast to be 2+ inches and with the enhanced lift from the shortwave, numerous/widespread showers are in the forecast, along with a few storms. Best timing appears to be late Sunday through early afternoon on Monday as these features slowly shift away from the area. As far as rainfall, we are under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with widespread 1 to 2 inches forecast and about a 10-20% chance of rainfall totals over 3 inches through Monday night. Some minor flooding would be possible if larger amounts fell quickly, but impacts are expected to be limited otherwise. High pressure builds back in briefly for Tuesday into Wednesday before another shortwave moves into the southeast Wednesday night and Thursday with another one right behind it. This second one will eventually help push a cold front across Florida Friday, with drier air building in for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Fast-moving light showers continue to stream east to west across the state today and could go over area terminals at just about any time, though any impacts should be brief and limited. Thinking there will be a break in showers tonight, then higher rain chances return for tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon toward the end of or beyond the current forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for late tomorrow into Monday, then high pressure and drier weather returns for mid-week with winds diminishing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Rain chances increase for late Sunday into Monday with numerous showers and a few storms expected, then high pressure builds back in for mid-week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 72 81 70 82 / 20 70 50 40 FMY 74 84 71 84 / 20 70 50 60 GIF 72 82 69 83 / 40 70 60 60 SRQ 72 81 69 82 / 20 60 50 40 BKV 71 81 67 83 / 30 60 40 40 SPG 73 79 70 80 / 20 60 50 40 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1284136 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 218 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. - 2) Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. Gusty northeast winds and building seas expected along all beaches of GA and SC today. A High Risk of rip currents will remain until 8 PM this evening. Reminder: The local rip current program will end later today, October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast. KEY MESSAGE 2: Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. Through Tonight: Aloft, h500 heights will continue to fall as shortwaves move through the flow into the overnight period. At the surface, a wedge of high pressure will continue to shift into the northeast, with a coastal trough just offshore. The resulting increased surface pressure gradient is creating the gusty to breezy conditions that are being observed across the region, though they are coming in a touch weaker than expected. Strongest winds are expected along the coast in the 20 to 25 mph range, possibly up to 30 mph in McIntosh county, with gusts up to 20 mph for inland areas. In addition, the coastal trough will continue the low chances (20- 40%) for light showers into the early evening hours primarily for McIntosh county, with the rest of the region expected to remain dry. Overnight, we`ll likely see another push of light showers moving ashore onto southeast Georgia, though there remains uncertainty on just how far inland the showers are able to get before dissipating. Either way, any precipitation amounts will remain light, with totals by sunrise Sunday expected to remain under a quarter of an inch. Extended: High pressure will remain the primary feature across the region through early next week. The high will be centered near the Mid Atlantic and southern New England Sunday into Monday before drifting eastward over the Atlantic Tuesday into the middle of the week. A coastal trough is expected to develop just off the GA/SC coast and provide sufficient convergence to generate showers. This shower activity will likely favor the GA coast Sunday into Monday. The shower potential will then gradually spread to the entire coast Tuesday into Wednesday as the parent high slips to the east and allows the trough to attempt to push onshore. Any rainfall that does occur shouldn`t be particularly impactful, with most places likely only seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The gradient will remain sufficiently tight to drive elevated northeast flow Sunday through Tuesday. Gusts into the 20-25 mph range are expected, especially along the coast each afternoon and evening. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 18Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected across the CHS/JZI/SAV terminals, with gusty to breezy northeasterly winds continuing throughout the day. Gusts to near 20 knots are expected for inland areas, closer to 25 to 30 knots at the immediate coastline. There is potential for MVFR cigs down near Darien, GA (McIntosh County) as light scattered showers move onshore, which may continue into the overnight hours. Winds decrease overnight, though a few gusts into the upper teens will remain possible. Extended aviation: Breezy northeast winds will continue late Sunday through Monday. Rain chances will increase Sunday into early next week which could bring the potential for periodic flight restrictions. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Behind the front that pushed through earlier, breezy northeasterly winds have been moved in producing gusts of 25 to 30 knots across the local waters. 6 ft seas are currently limited to the offshore (20-60nm) zones, with 6 to 7 ft seas expected to push into the nearshore zones this evening and overnight. Offshore, wave heights are expected to reach into the 7 to 8 ft range. Sunday through Thursday: The overall setup will continue to feature high pressure centered off to the north with a pinched gradient across the local waters. This will drive continued northeast flow through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. Frequent gusts into the 25-30 knot range are expected into Monday, along with seas in the 5-7 ft range. These conditions will support an extended period of Small Craft Advisories. Winds should gradually diminish Tuesday into Wednesday as the gradient relaxes. However, seas will remain elevated enough to keep the advisories going through Tuesday night. By Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will diminish even more as a cold front approaches from the west. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217- 219-239-241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362- 364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284135 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 219 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues Along the St Johns River in Putnam. Minor Tidal Flooding Continues Elsewhere Along the St Johns River in NE FL - Atlantic Coast and ICWW Today. High Risk for Rip Currents with High Surf at the beach south of St Augustine into Flagler Beach. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Breezy Gusts at the Beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues within the St Johns River basin - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Scattered showers will spread onshore today, first along the coast of SE GA early this afternoon ahead of a slowly sinking cold front. As the front sinks to the FL/GA state line, the showers, driven by coastal convergence, increasing moisture levels, and lift from the front will shift southward to the Jacksonville visitant and the I- 10 corridor by the mid to late afternoon hours with a few brief showers even drifting into the NE FL coast southward to Flagler Beach and Palm Coast areas. Overall rainfall amounts will be under a tenth of an inch, a bit higher at the immediate SE GA coast. High pressure will wedge down the southeast coast north of the front with NE winds increasing to 15-20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph along the coast and 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland. The elevated onshore flow will make for dangerous rip currents at the beaches that will be dangerous for swimmers through this evening and overnight With plentiful cloud cover, highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. All Hallows Eve, the sun will set (perhaps never to rise again) and winds will quell inland to a gentile 5-10 mph while staying higher along the coast 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Scattered showers along I-10 will spread into the remainder of NE FL after the midnight hour along with gloomy cloud cover overnight. Low temperatures will be cooler over the interior of SE GA into the mid 60s with more humidity and northeast flow providing for upper 60s along I-10 of NE FL and the lows along the NE FL coast. No frightful fog is expected. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Sun- Mon Breezy ENE winds continue across the area as strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday as a diffused stationary front remains draped across central FL and an upper shortwave trough gradually closes off the SW FL coast. Abundant moisture (PWATs 1.7- 2.0"), strong ascent and frictional convergence will lead to rounds of showers capable of producing heavy rainfall moving through NE FL and SE GA, mainly late Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly for NE FL south of the I-10 corridor where the best lift will be. WPC has placed the I- 95 corridor of NE FL in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for both Sunday and Monday where convergent bands could develop and train over coastal areas. Rainfall amounts have trended downward with this cycle but a few places could see 2-3 inches. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns next week. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Upper low over south FL on Tuesday weakens and gets absorbed by an approaching longwave trough digging into the SE US mid-week next week. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary over south FL lifts northward as a warm front on Wednesday then a cold front moves through the SE US Thursday into Friday. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are anticipated each day across the region with ample moisture and lift. Onshore flow will shift to SSW toward the end of the week with the passing cold front bringing relief to the coastal hazards especially in the St. Johns river. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... The 18Z TAF period will begin with showers intermittent at SSI with prevailing VFR ceilings scattered 2.5-3.5 kft and broken mid to high level clouds overhead. Winds are increasing to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at JAX and SSI and will spread to CRG and SGJ over the next hour or so while inland sites increase to 12-14 knots inland gusting between 20-25 knots this afternoon. Showers will be scattered in coverage near the Duval county Terminals and along the NE FL coast while chances too low near GNV through tonight. Overcast high level clouds will lower to overcast mid level clouds this evening. Keeping only VCSH at SSI this evening after 00Z as the front weakens as it sinks into Northeast FL. However, inverted troughing developing over the waters will redevelop showers late tonight and have included a PROB30 group after 06Z for MVFR ceilings and visibility restrictions from coastal showers moving onshore. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Low stratus developing inland should mainly stay west of the TAF sites. Sunday, showers will gradually increase in coverage across the area a disturbance aloft arrives from the west with easterly winds becoming breezy 10-15 knots and gusts to around 20 knots. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east- northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through the area today and increase in coverage Sunday into Monday. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily for areas south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds, overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to good daytime dispersions. However, lingering breezy winds along the coast will lead to high nighttime dispersions tonight and Sunday night. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for minor coastal flooding limited primarily within the St Johns river through the remainder of the weekend. The exception is eastern Putnam county where a Coastal Flood Warning continues at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 64 76 63 79 / 10 20 20 20 SSI 65 76 65 75 / 40 30 50 60 JAX 67 78 66 77 / 30 60 60 60 SGJ 71 78 68 76 / 10 40 60 70 GNV 69 80 66 81 / 20 30 50 50 OCF 70 80 67 81 / 20 30 40 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ038-125- 132-225-325-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Monday for FLZ137. High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ138-333. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284134 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:30 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 220 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Extended the Small Craft Advisory across the near shore coastal waters a few hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend. 2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South. Marine: Northeasterly winds and seas will gradually subside through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to build in from the north through the weekend bringing northeast flow and cooler but seasonable temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could. KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance continues to vary drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential. While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure building in from the north is bringing gusty NE winds this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 kt inland and to around 25 kt along the coast. Winds will diminish tonight but light winds and a sufficiently dry airmass is expected to preclude fog development. NE winds continue Sunday but won`t be quite as gusty. VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period with sct-bkn mid and high clouds. Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the potential. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build into the region into early next week bringing NE winds across the waters. Winds currently around 15-20 kt. Gusts to around 25-30 kt are mainly confined to the coastal waters closer south of Cape Hatteras, especially near the Gulf Stream. Seas are currently around 5-7 ft for the nearshore waters and up to around 8 ft across the offshore waters. Winds diminish to around 10-20 kt overnight into Sunday, highest across of Onslow Bay where gusts up to 25 kt may continue. Seas are a foot or so higher than wave guidance across the nearshore waters and have extended the SCA a few hours to allow for a slower subsidence. Seas will be around 3-5 ft across the nearshore coastal waters Sunday into Monday, though continue around 5-7 ft across the outer coastal waters south of Cape Hatteras. Outlook: Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1284132 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Trick-or-Treat weather will be a treat! Dry and temperatures in the 70s! - Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms. - Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Dry conditions will persist through the weekend until our next front. Our next cold front is expected to swing through early next week in association with a potent low that will progress through the southern Great Plains. There is still some disagreements on a few things such as timing and the extent of the associated front south. Though as it sits this will likely be our next chance for some activity. We`ll be able to get a better grasp on things when we get in the range of the CAMs. Therefore be sure check back for future updates. For Halloween locations will remain dry. Not only are we expected to be dry, but low temperatures will stay in the 70s/upper 60s with light winds Halloween night. Will have to continue to monitor the possibility for minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches into the weekend. This will be due to persistent onshore flow and elevated swell periods. An increased risk of rip currents will also persist. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. Low CIGs return in the early morning hours at a couple terminals where conditions will drop to IFR (KALI and KCRP). Additionally, there is a possibility that those terminals could drop to LIFR conditions around 10-14z, but due to uncertainty, they were left out of the current TAF`s. Conditions will then start to clear out in the late morning/early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally, light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through the weekend, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower will be possible through today. A front is expected to swing through early next week allowing rain chances to return. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 84 71 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 67 82 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 71 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 69 86 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 71 81 72 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 69 85 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 69 87 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 73 81 74 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284131 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 149 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 - Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast. - There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road. - Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Mid-level ridging is parked atop the Sunshine State this morning. A broad area of above-normal H5 heights extends over the eastern half of the U.S. In the polar jet stream, a shortwave over New England is responsible for reinforcing a continental high-pressure system over the Great Lakes. In the West, a longwave trough axis sits just offshore of California. Additional shortwave energy, on the nose of the subtropical jet, is located over Texas. By Sunday evening, the surface high should move into the Mid-Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over Florida yet again. Meanwhile, the mid-level shortwave currently over Texas is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf and/or Florida. Guidance has continued to trend slower with the arrival of this feature. A surface reflection, most likely in the form of a weak trough, may attempt to form over the eastern Gulf by Sunday evening. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence is anticipated to coincide with a broad area of upper-level jet diffluence, especially from Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, total moisture (PWAT) is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology over Florida. This disturbance is forecast to weaken by Tuesday as it crawls eastward. By Wednesday night, cluster analysis of the 30/12Z ensemble suite shows another shortwave trough axis approaching the Mississippi Valley. With additional jet stream energy on its heels, guidance suggests this trough will begin to weaken as it reaches the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This portends a rather unimpressive cold frontal passage for Florida sometime on Thursday. Somewhat drier air is still likely to reach the state once it passes. The subtropical jet is forecast to become quasi-zonal over the Southern U.S. late next week and into the following weekend. Global ensembles indicate a weak ridge developing near Florida, maintaining above-normal H85 (5 kft) temperatures. The next signal appears to be a southern stream trough entering the Desert Southwest next weekend. It is not expected to reach Florida until at least Monday the 9th. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Unfortunately, high-res guidance has struggled with the pesky band of showers that has remained over portions of the Treasure Coast the last 12 hours or so. We expect that periodic showers will continue to stream off of the Atlantic, especially for areas south of Cape Canaveral today. Rain chances range from 10-30% northwest of I-4 to 50-60% from Melbourne southward. Lightning chances remain low (<25%). Showers that repeatedly affect the same areas may drop 1-3" on a very isolated basis, so we will continue to monitor trends for localized flooding. East-northeast winds increase a bit today as the gradient tightens up. Expect occasional gusts from 20-30 mph this afternoon. This will continue to generate rough surf and numerous, life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. A High Surf Advisory will go into effect at 5 PM today. Please refrain from entering the ocean. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with the midday high tide mainly from near St. Lucie Inlet and points southward into Martin County. Warm and muggy today with highs in the low/mid 80s. Sunday - Monday... As mentioned in the overview, several factors favor widespread coverage (60-80%) of showers with a few storms (20-30%). Sunday may not be a washout for all of the area, however, as the disturbance responsible for the active weather is moving in a bit slower. We anticipate the greatest areal coverage of rain sometime later Sunday through midday Monday. The influx of energy and moisture, combined with frictional convergence and some instability emerging off the Atlantic, favor the I-95 corridor for training bands of heavy rain. To make matters worse, much of the Treasure Coast is nearly saturated from recent rains. Through Monday night, most likely rainfall tallies of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for much of east central Florida, with a 5-10% chance of localized 5" or greater totals. Where these higher amounts fall in a shorter timeframe, flash flooding could result. Easterly winds will be strongest on Sunday, with gusts up to 30 mph. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect on Sunday at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Additionally, another round of minor coastal flooding is forecast south of St. Lucie Inlet with the early afternoon high tide cycle, especially on Sunday. The high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist into early next week. Tuesday - Thursday... Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but above-normal moisture is forecast to remain in place. Shower chances will continue, with 30-40% coverage expected. Storm chances remain low, at 20% or less. A cold front is slated to get here sometime on Thursday or Thursday night, albeit on a weakening trend. A thin line of showers and isolated storms may accompany the boundary. Severe weather potential still looks quite limited. Remaining warm, with highs in the low/mid 80s. Friday - Next Weekend... There is some disagreement with how much dry air will be advected over Florida behind the cold front late this week, and appreciable cold advection should be stymied by progressive zonal flow. The favored scenario is a clean enough frontal passage for mostly dry, pleasant weather during this timeframe. Warm afternoons and somewhat cooler nights would prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories continue for all but the nearshore Volusia waters this morning, but even that zone will go beneath the advisory by this afternoon. ENE winds 15-25 kts by this afternoon, lasting through Sunday. Seas building to 6-9 ft from this afternoon into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A weak east coast sea breeze is enhancing onshore flow a bit this afternoon, producing winds around 15 kts gusting to around 25 kts. ISO-SCT SHRA have develop in this flow, producing brief MVFR CIGS and IFR VIS reductions. Guidance is indicating a loosely organized and persistent band of SHRA may develop across portions of ECFL from later this afternoon into the overnight. Keeping with VC mention at most TAFs, but have continued or added TEMPOs/PROB30s at KTIX- KSUA with some timing adjustment due to chances for more frequent/prolonged impacts. Winds ease to 8-13 kts overnight, closer to the higher end with continued gusts to around 20 kts along the coast, then pick back up again after 14Z Sunday. ISO-SCT SHRA forecast to continue into Sunday morning, the SHRA become SCT-NUM with ISO TSRA after 14Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 73 80 70 79 / 10 50 60 70 MCO 72 79 70 80 / 40 70 60 60 MLB 74 80 72 80 / 60 80 70 70 VRB 75 82 72 82 / 60 70 80 70 LEE 71 80 69 81 / 30 60 50 50 SFB 72 80 70 81 / 20 50 60 60 ORL 73 80 70 80 / 30 60 60 60 FPR 75 81 72 81 / 50 70 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284129 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1241 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Sunday. - Dry, hot conditions expected through Halloween weekend. - Cold front early next week will bring cooler temperatures and a brief chance of rain, mainly near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected for Halloween festivities and Sunday into early Tuesday. A potent low pressure system swings through the Southern Plans Monday into Tuesday, kicking up a warm and breezy Monday, before sending a cold front through Deep South Texas on Tuesday with cooler temperatures and a brief medium (30-40 percent) chance of rain into Wednesday. Near normal temperatures are expected Thursday into the weekend. Another frontal boundary attempts a southern run late Friday through Saturday, with another brief low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain Friday and Saturday. Overall, rather seasonal conditions are expected to kick off the first week of November. Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and elevated astronomical tides continue to narrow beaches during high tide cycles through the weekend with conditions expected to improve Sunday into Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through tonight. Patchy to dense fog developed last night across the ranchlands and may develop again tonight with light to near calm winds. Cloud cover may prevent any dense fog from developing or settling in. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period, with a southeasterly breeze this afternoon and patchy fog expected late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Marine conditions continue to improve through the remainder of this weekend into early next week. Breezy winds across the bay may bring a brief period of Small Craft Caution conditions Monday afternoon. A cold front on Tuesday with breezy northerly winds may also kick up occasional SCEC conditions across the Gulf. Light onshore flow returns late week with another frontal boundary possible next weekend. The best chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms occurs with the frontal passage Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 88 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 92 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 82 76 83 / 0 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 85 71 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284128 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Increasing cloud cover and relatively low dew points today will generally lead to low rain chances for most of today. Northeast winds this morning become more easterly this afternoon, allowing for gradually moistening throughout the afternoon and evening. This could allow for a brief window of opportunity for some light showers late in the afternoon/early evening as instability looks to be uncapped for a couple hours. Otherwise, expect it to be a warm and increasingly cloudy day with gusty easterly winds. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf this weekend will allow rain chances to increase heading into Sunday through Monday morning. Given the prevailing northeast to easterly flow across the region, this shortwave looks to induce showers and possibly a couple storms mostly along our coastal areas and offshore, where instability looks to be available. Otherwise, areas inland should expect mostly light to moderate rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Ridging then prevails across eastern CONUS through midweek before the next trough and associated frontal system looks to approach the region from the west. Rain chances will once again be in the forecast Wednesday through the end of the work week. Generally expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today with MVFR to IFR conditions and rain showers moving in late tonight and tomorrow. There is a small chance for thunderstorms, mainly at KDHN, KTLH, and KECP but it is too small to include in the taf for now. Breezy ENE to E winds are expected to continue through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected through this morning with winds near 20 knots for our offshore waters. A surface low will pass over our waters this weekend, increasing winds across most of the near shore waters as well for Saturday night through Monday. As the surface low departs, winds and seas are expected to diminish back to moderate breezes on Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected across the region over the next week, with isolated higher amounts likely along the coast this weekend as an area of low pressure moves across the eastern Gulf. There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 78 64 80 / 20 40 40 10 Panama City 67 77 64 79 / 40 60 30 10 Dothan 64 74 61 78 / 20 50 40 0 Albany 63 75 60 78 / 0 30 40 10 Valdosta 65 78 63 79 / 10 40 40 30 Cross City 69 80 65 80 / 30 50 50 30 Apalachicola 68 75 66 77 / 40 60 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284127 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with minor coastal flooding also possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A rather diffuse and complex pattern makes for a challenging Halloweekend forecast. At the surface, broad high pressure over the Northeast maintains an easterly to southeasterly flow across the area, bringing in Atlantic and Gulf moisture, especially along the coast and northwestward into Mississippi. Southwesterly flow persists aloft as the upper ridge shifts east and a weak shortwave trough approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Deep-layer moisture will increase as this shortwave approaches, with PWATs climbing to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches tonight, near the 95th percentile for late October. Rain chances will begin increasing as early as mid to late afternoon, initially favoring areas west of I-65. Southeast Mississippi could see numerous showers and storms develop during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially impacting trick-or-treating plans. Elsewhere, coverage should remain more isolated to scattered through the evening before increasing overnight into Sunday morning. PoPs of 60-70% are forecast areawide by Sunday morning. One concern with this setup is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Opposing easterly low-level and westerly upper-level flow will result in weak mean- layer flow, generally 10 knots or less, so any deeper convection that develops could be slow-moving. Combined with anomalously high PWATs and a deep warm cloud layer, rainfall rates could be quite efficient. Most areas should see around 0.5-1 inch of rain, but isolated totals of 3-4 inches are possible where heavier showers or storms develop. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Confidence in the rainfall distribution remains low given the weak forcing. Latest HREF and REFS guidance continues to show a rather variable rainfall footprint, with isolated heavier bullseyes surrounded by areas receiving considerably less. While some locations could see significant rainfall, others may receive very little. Rain chances will gradually decrease Sunday afternoon as the disturbance shifts east. Widespread cloud cover and breezy easterly winds will persist, keeping temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Shortwave ridging and developing northwesterly flow aloft will then support dry conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. The main story heading into midweek will be a larger storm system expected to impact much of the central and eastern CONUS. A northern- stream trough will phase with a subtropical jet streak entering the southern Rockies, with the eventual evolution of the trough having important implications for our area. Depending on how the trough ejects from the central Plains early next week, there is some potential for severe weather across portions of the local area during the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe. A slower, more amplified solution involving a closed-off trough digging toward the Lower Mississippi Valley could promote surface low development farther south, enhancing low-level wind shear across the Southeast. Conversely, a faster and more progressive solution would keep the strongest dynamics farther north and away from the better instability, limiting the local severe threat. Model guidance remains inconsistent regarding the timing, strength, and placement of these features, so confidence remains low at this range. This is something we will continue to monitor over the coming days. A cold front will eventually move through the area, bringing a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows should fall well into the 40s late next week into next weekend, bringing a noticeable cooldown to the region. A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, surf heights are forecast to increase to around 4 to 6 feet by Sunday, and a High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. Trends will be monitored for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Mostly VFR ceilings over the area with some occasional MVFR ceilings continuing to to move into areas along the coast this afternoon. Scattered rain showers return late tonight and into tomorrow morning bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail by early Sunday morning. Winds continue to be east-southeast today around 10 knots with some periodically higher gusts. Winds wane overnight to around 5 knots and prevail easterly by early tomorrow morning at at 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20-25 knots, especially closer to the coast. SS/97 && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon, becoming strong by tonight. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 8pm tonight through 8pm Monday. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 66 74 63 78 / 50 60 20 20 Pensacola 69 74 66 78 / 60 60 30 0 Destin 68 76 66 79 / 50 60 30 0 Evergreen 64 71 60 76 / 40 70 40 0 Waynesboro 64 72 60 76 / 70 60 20 10 Camden 63 68 59 73 / 50 60 40 0 Crestview 66 74 63 78 / 40 60 30 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1284126 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:42 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 134 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. 2) Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. A cold front is well to our south early this morning, with NNE winds gusting to 20-25 mph near the coast in the wake of the front (and lighter winds inland). CAA is not particularly strong for the last day of October, but temps have fallen into the upper 40s-lower 60s and will fall to the mid 40s-lower 50s by sunrise. Cooler, dry, and pleasant today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure builds over the area this evening through Sunday, which will allow for winds to diminish. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. Certainly no weather issues for those trick-or-treating. Lows Sunday morning drop into the upper 30s-mid 40s. A shortwave approaches on Sunday and crosses the area on Monday, which will allow for cloud cover to increase. However, due to the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not expected. It will turn slightly milder on Sunday and Monday, with a few 70F readings possible Monday afternoon across southern VA/NE NC. Cool again Monday morning with upper 30s-mid 40s in most areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. The gradual warming trend continues into mid next week, as an upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS while surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system is progged to develop in the Plains on Tuesday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by late next week. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night and continue into Friday. However, there are lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of the system. So while some of the models do show widespread rainfall, others do not. Therefore, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 18z TAF period. Cloud cover will be SCT-BKN high clouds and should increase late this afternoon and evening and persist through the remainder of the period. NE 5-10 kt winds become 5 kt or less tonight, before increasing again by later Sunday morning. Other than very shallow ground fog, not expecting any VSBY restrictions tonight. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week, but confidence remains low. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Elevated NNE winds and seas continue this morning before subsiding later today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the first half of next week. Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front now south of our area settling in across NC and SC. High pressure is building in from the northwest ushering in a cooler airmass. This has allowed NNE winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt along most of the local waters (minus the upper rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound for these elevated winds through 10am. Waves in the middle Bay are becoming 2-3ft with the lower and mouth of the Bay reaching 3-4ft. SCAs are also in effect for the coastal waters out to 20nm for seas expected to build to 5- 6ft over the next few hours. The SCAs will drop off for the waters north of Cape Charles early this afternoon as seas diminish a bit earlier than the southern zones, which drop off at 7pm. Winds and waves/seas will diminish through the afternoon. High pressure will persist overhead with winds remaining easterly around 10kt into early next week. Seas are forecast to be 2-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Dry conditions will continue through mid-week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1284125 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:30 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Juan PR 122 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 113 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue this afternoon into night hours, bringing periods of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Seek shelter whenever you hear thunder, and don`t forget the umbrella while trick-or-treating. - For the U.S. Virgin Islands, passing showers tonight may lead to ponding of water over roadways and poor drainage areas, thought the flooding risk remains low. - Heat indices exceeding 100 F are very likely each day, with warmer temperatures by midweek, across urban and low-lying areas of the islands. && .Short Term(This evening through Monday)... Issued at 113 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 A surface high pressure will continue to build over the western Atlantic through the short term, promoting moderate trades across the region. The 31/12z TJSJ upper-air sounding indicated a moistening boundary layer with precipitable water (PWAT) at 1.78 inches, alongside moderate instability (MUCAPE at 2561 J/kg) and low level ESE winds. However, a dry air layer lingers between 700 and 500 mb. That said, the combination of the available moisture, diurnal heating, sea breeze convergence, and orographic forcing along the Cordillera Central will trigger scattered to locally numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms across the mountain ranges of Puerto Rico. With steering winds out of the east-southeast at 10 to 15 knots, activity should drift toward the west and northwestern coasts through the late afternoon. Ensemble guidance shows areas of 1.50 to 2.50 inches, mainly over the western interior, which can lead to urban and small-stream flooding. Across the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico, partly sunny skies will prevail with isolated trade wind showers. From late tonight into Sunday, an upper-level trough over Hispaniola will continue to pull moisture over the region and aid in the development of advective showers across the USVI and eastern PR. PWAT content is expected to peak around 2.00 inches with modest moistening in the 700-500 mb layer through most of the day. This will support another round of convection by midday across the interior and western PR, with rain rates sufficiently heavy to cause localized minor flooding. Meanwhile, the U.S. Virgin Islands will experience somewhat breezy conditions with passing light to moderate trade wind showers. By Monday, a drying trend begins as drier mid-level air filters into the region. Model soundings show PWAT values dropping into the 1.65 to 1.75 inch range and mid-level RH declining. Although the cap strengthens slightly, sufficient low-level moisture and daytime heating will still promote scattered afternoon convection across northwestern Puerto Rico. Elsewhere across the islands, including the USVI, mostly fair weather is expected during the day, however, another pulse of low-level moisture content from the east is expected during the night, enhancing nighttime convection between the USVI and eastern PR. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 A generally warm and humid weather pattern is expected across Puerto Rico during the long term period. Precipitable water values will remain relatively high, ranging between 1.9 and 2.3 inches, while low-level relative humidity (850 to 700 mb) will generally remain between 70% and 85%. Mid-level moisture (700 to 500 mb) also shows periods of increased humidity, mainly values in the 75th percentile based on climatology for the month of November. Notably, 925 mb temperatures are forecast to reach approximately two standard deviations above normal at the beginning of the period (particularly Tuesday and Wednesday), supporting warmer than normal conditions. If widespread cloud cover does not develop, these warm and humid conditions could promote stronger daytime heating and enhance afternoon convection. At the surface, light and variable winds are expected, particularly from Wednesday through Friday, resulting in very weak steering flow. This will allow locally developed showers to move slowly, increasing rainfall accumulations and the potential to observe flooding. Sea-breeze convergence, diurnal heating, and orographic lifting across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico could further enhance shower development. Periods of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small stream flooding and quick river rises. At the upper levels, no significant changes in the overall pattern are expected initially, although current global models show some disagreement regarding the long term evolution. An upper-level low, also reflected in the surface pattern and associated frontal boundary, is forecast to swing north of the region across the Atlantic waters. Toward the end of the week, its influence could promote a shift in low-level winds from the south, bringing additional tropical moisture into the region and maintaining a warm and humid environment. Meanwhile, 500 mb temperatures will remain near -5 to -6C, with generally moderate lapse rates suggesting some potential for atmospheric instability. Cloud cover will play an important role in afternoon convective development, as extensive cloudiness could limit surface heating and inhibit convection, while periods of sunshine would favor stronger daytime heating and enhance shower development. Overall, expect warm and humid conditions, variable cloud cover, and periods of showers, particularly across interior and western Puerto Rico. Given the weak steering flow and potential for slow-moving showers, locally heavy rainfall, increased rainfall accumulations, and flooding impacts will remain possible. Continue to monitor the forecast as confidence increases and updated become available. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions will generally prevail across all terminals through the period. However, SHRA/TSRA development over the interior of PR may cause tempo MVFR conds across the PR terminals through 31/22Z. Also, VCTS could prevail across all terminals including TIST/TISX thru 31/21z due to streamers developing downwind of the islands Surface winds will remain from the E to ESE at 10 to 15 kt with sea breeze variations, becoming light and variable after 31/23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 113 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 A surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to promote light to moderate east to southeasterly winds across the regional waters for the rest of the weekend. Seas between will continue for the rest of the weekend, with ocasional higher seas, gusty winds, and slight visibility reduction near showers and thunderstorms. Monday onwards, building seas between 4 and 6 feet could lead to choppy conditions at times across the Atlantic and Caribbean offshore waters and local passages. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 113 PM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 The beach forecast remains on track. The latest nearshore buoys continue to report seas between 2 and 3 feet, resulting in breaking wave around 2 and 4 feet. Therefore, the moderate risk of rip currents continue for northern and eastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands; low elsewhere. With the increment in winds, St. Thomas and St. John may also be upgraded to moderate tomorrow, Sunday. Beachgoers must exercise caution, as life-threatening rip currents are possible along beaches under moderate risk. The risk should gradually lower by the end of the next workweek as winds weaken, while no significant swell event is expected over the next few days. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1284123 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:18 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 108 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. - High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. A cooler day is expected today as the post-frontal air mass moves in. Aloft, 925 mb temperatures cool to around 0C and NW winds continue, yet weaken with high pressure building in. Highs on Halloween will only reach the 50s as a result. Skies clear, and winds falling to or near calm Halloween night will allow for radiational cooling, dropping lows to the 20s and low 30s for much of the region. As is normally the case, the coldest readings will be found across the far interior where lows fall to near 20 degrees. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. High pressure will remain firmly in control of southern New England`s weather clear through at least mid to late week as this stretch of pleasant weather continues. A large high moving in from New York will initially move overhead on Sunday, replaced by another dropping south from Canada into Maine mid week. A weak trough will pass over the Canadian maritimes around Tuesday bringing the potential for some showers to northern New England but lack of moisture and dynamics over SNE will keep us dry. The next chance for a pattern change comes around late Thursday/Friday when a mid level trough may dig into the mid-Atlantic, but that is not a certainty at this point. EPS and GEFS ensembles paint a 70-90% chance of PWATS climbing above 1" Thursday-Saturday next week. Run to run variability shows less of a signal for QPF with the latest members showing probs of >0.5" of 24 hr QPF falling from 60-70% for the 12z runs to 30-50%. In the mean time, high pressure maintains a milder than average airmass overhead leading to comfortable highs in the 60s all week. Winds should be light until Friday when our passing low would bring a period of gusty winds. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Through Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds around 10-15 kt with sporadic gusts around 20 kts easing in the early afternoon. Winds then go light WNW/calm overnight before increasing from the SW to 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. SCAs remain in effect through 18z this afternoon given NW winds gusting to 30 kt through tonight and seas to 5 ft into this morning for the outer waters. While winds gradually diminish through the day seas will generally be between 4-5 feet for the outer waters. Heading into this evening and overnight, winds and seas diminish; winds generally fall to 10 kt or less and seas decrease to around 2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds falling to 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230>234-250-251-254-255. && $$ |
| #1284121 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:15 PM 31.Oct.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1202 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to widely scattered showers today, especially along and east of I-45. - Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday. - Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier thunderstorms possible. Autumn-like air behind the front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Southeast Texas once again finds itself in a soupy atmosphere, with PWATs averaging ~1.70" areawide. Sfc dew points are primarily in the low 70s, with afternoon temperatures likely warming into the low 80s in most spots. It is a tropical airmass for your Halloween this year. Unlike yesterday, we do not have a robust synoptic system to provide large-scale lift. Nor do we have any meaningful shortwaves to provide lift. However, we do have a weak, southward drifting boundary along with diurnal forcings that should suffice for isolated to scattered shower activity. We used an NBM/HRRR/Global Deterministic blend to give us our ~30-40 PoPs (primarily along and east of I-45). PoPs are lower, but not non- existent, farther west, averaging 15-25% along the Brazos River. The water vapor rich atmosphere will only allow for minimal cooling overnight. Sunset temperatures are expected to average in the mid/upper 70s. By midnight, temperatures are expected to range from the low 70s south of I-10 and w/in the urban heat island, to upper 60s elsewhere. Not a bad temperature range for Halloween festivities. The first two days of November (Sunday / Monday) are looking quite warm and humid, with afternoon temperatures averaging in the mid 80s inland, and around 80 at the coast. A very active subtropical jet pattern is evident on water vapor imagery. A deep trough extends over the Pacific well west of California and Mexico. A strong, moist, diffluent sub-tropical jet ahead of the trough is pushing deep tropical moisture in the direction of SW CONUS. Meanwhile, a strong mid/upper low is diving southward over the Pacific Northwest. The two features should phase together over western CONUS on Sunday-Monday. The subtropical jet will infuse the system with tropical moisture in the mid/upper levels, while deep LL flow from the Gulf will surge sfc tropical moisture northward over central CONUS. The Texas atmosphere should start to feel the lift from this system as it ejects eastward from the Rockies, with LL lee-side cyclogenesis expected over the plains. The set up described above is a heavy rain and severe thunderstorm red flag. But if the current guidance has anything to say about it, the overall synoptic dynamics are more likely to favor severe thunderstorms to the north of our region. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is showing a Level 2 of 5 risk of severe weather over portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, and north Texas on Monday. But if you peer at the SPC convective outlook map, you`ll notice that a Level 1 of 5 risk is in effect over portions of central and western Texas down to the Mexico border on Monday. This is because the convergence along the trailing cold front coupled with an increasingly sheared environment should suffice for at least some deep convection along the boundary. Thus, we`ll have to monitor this front closely as it pushes into southeast Texas on Tuesday We think we`ll at least see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms push through the area on Tuesday. But we cannot rule out a few stronger thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts. The air mass behind the front looks beautiful, with highs in the 70s and lows mostly in the 50s. Our northern zones and rural cold spots are likely to dip into the 40s. Autumn should make a comeback in the front`s wake. Self && .AVIATION... (15Z TAF Amendment) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 IFR/MVFR will linger into the early afternoon before becoming mostly VFR through the rest of today. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA is likely near the coast and east of I-45. Confidence in SHRA is too low to mention in many of the TAFs. But keep in mind that we do expect some shower activity today. Couldn`t rule out an iso TSRA near the coast, where shallow convection has developed in the vicinity of Galveston Bay during the late morning hours. Winds should remain light, and become more NE or N at times. There is increasing concern for IFR/LIFR cigs and vis overnight, especially after 05-07 UTC, at all terminals. The best chance of LIFR appears to be during the 08-13 UTC time frame. These low cigs/vis could remain resilient well into the morning and possibly into midday tomorrow. Self && .MARINE... Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally light easterly flow is expected through the weekend. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today. By Monday, winds veer southeasterly and start to increase, with moderately southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front on Tuesday. The front pushes offshore by Tuesday afternoon or evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the front. A locally stronger thunderstorm capable of 40+ knot gusts are possible. Gusty northwest winds are likely behind the front late Tuesday into Wednesday. Our current forecast shows 15-25 knot NW winds and 3-5 foot Gulf seas. However, winds and seas can sometimes over perform, especially when ocean temperatures remain on the warm side (mid/upper 70s). So we cannot rule out having to revise winds and seas upwards, especially if temperatures behind the front are looking a little colder. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 65 84 66 85 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 68 83 69 83 / 10 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 79 72 81 / 10 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284120 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:30 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1015 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues south of Shands Bridge through. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Strong Gusts at the beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for Northeast FL at. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .UPDATE... Scattered to broken low ceilings inland will lift through the next hour with increasing mid and high level clouds today. Light showers are currently moving onshore around Brunswick/St Simons Island this morning near and south of a cold frontal boundary pressing south ward into SE GA. Northeast winds remain 10-15 mph and 5-10 mph inland. However, high pressure building southward from the north will serve to tighten the local pressure gradient and increase winds to breezy levels 10-20 mph this afternoon inland gusting to 25-30 mph and about 15-25 mph along the coast with gusts to 30 to 35 mph. The increasing northeast to east northeasterly winds, increasing moisture (above 75th percentile for Oct 31st), and lift from the front will create some coastal convergent showers, mainly scattered moving onshore from the Atlantic waters onto the SE GA coast and shifting southward to the Jacksonville and I-10 vicinity by the early afternoon hours as winds increase, through a few light showers may alos drift onto the rest of the NE FL coast to Flagler beach as well. Rainfall amounts will be light with a tenth to quarter inch localized amounts, especially nearer the coast. Highs will be in the upper 70s along the coast and low 80s over the interior of NE FL west of the St Johns river and inland Flagler and St Johns counties to near 80 over inland SE GA. Skies will be mostly cloudy from increasing mid and high level clouds, limiting highs despite higher dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 over NE FL and mid to upper 60s over SE GA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantange of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Marginal Risk of Flooding due to Excessive Rainfall Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter will relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z period will start with restrictions for IFR ceilings at CRG/JAX/VQQ/GNV generally between 0.5-1.0 kft through 14Z with scattered ceilings ranging from 3.0 kft near SGJ and may lower to 1.5 kft at SSI as showers approach from the southeast. A front moving southward to the area and increasing moisture will bring some better potential for showers at the SSI terminals during the afternoon hours, so have placed a PROB30 group for MVFR ceilings and visibilities after 18Z until 00Z. Otherwise, confidence in placement of showers is less, so have VCSH for all sites this afternoon, with a lull after 00Z. WInds will increase today as high pressure wedges down the southeast coast behind the front moving in from the north and pinching the local pressure gradient. Winds will rise to the about 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG/JAX with 12-15 knots inland gusting to 20-25 knots this afternoon. Have increasing mid level clouds tonight with VCSH noted at Duval county and SSI terminals as the front weakens as it moves into Northeast FL. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Will ascertain if lower ceilings appear more likely late tonight with subsequent forecast, but for now confidence is too low for mention. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 64 76 62 / 10 10 30 40 SSI 76 66 74 63 / 40 40 40 60 JAX 79 67 77 64 / 50 30 60 60 SGJ 79 71 77 67 / 10 10 60 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 60 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 10 20 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284119 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:27 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1010 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Coastal flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates will be slow, especially in the Upper Keys. - Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes may see an uptick by tonight, but are expected to slacken again tomorrow. - A wet, stormy period is expected tonight through Monday. Locally heavy rainfall, if timed with high tides, may exacerbate coastal flooding hazards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Twenty four hours makes quite a difference for weather across the Florida Keys. Yesterday, weather across the Keys was reminiscent of winter conditions due to north-northeasterly winds, persistent decks of stratus clouds, and lack of energy available for convection. In contrast, this morning the KBYX radar detected widely scattered showers were streaming across the waters surrounding the Florida Keys. Easterly breezes were sustaining dew points in the mid to upper 70s. The morning 12Z KKEY sounding sampled an environment with ample instability, deep layers of moisture below 600 mb, and prevailing easterly winds. Advected Layer PWAT products detected a similar concentration of moisture throughout the atmosphere. Layers from the surface to 700 mb were heavily saturated, while moisture was present but not increasing in the 700 to 500 mb layer. Based on current conditions, we are keeping the 40% chance of showers in the forecast. Breezes are not likely to freshen to Small Craft Advisory levels, but Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be required tonight. The primary focus this afternoon is, once again, coastal flooding. Thankfully, we are on the receding side of the tide cycle. Tide heights at Key West harbor did not rise into Major flood category levels, and tidal stations at Vaca Cut and Grassy Key also did not measure Major flood levels. Thus, we are electing to take the Middle Keys out of the Coastal Flood Warning. The problem is that any showers that do move over the island chain, if timed to a high period in the tide cycle, could exacerbate coastal flooding hazards. Remember to avoid flooded roadways and take precautions, because stagnant salt water does bad things to vehicles. && .MARINE... Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. Significantly higher than normal high tides will result in reduced clearance under fixed bridges around times of high tide, so mariners are encouraged to keep that in mind. From synopsis: a broad area of high pressure over the eastern United States will sustain moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be required for portions or all marine zones tonight. Breezes are on track to slacken tomorrow, but elevated winds along the Florida Peninsula will generate higher northerly swell for the waters south of the Upper Keys. After the initial higher winds tonight, breezes will slacken during the weekend. Light to gentle breezes are possible midweek. Shower chances are expected to peak tomorrow through Monday with drier conditions during the middle of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Widely scattered, occasionally heavy showers will keep VCSH in the TAFs through the day at EYW and MTH. Prevailing VFR conditions may be interrupted by short lived MVFR VIS and CIGs throughout the TAF period due to brief SHRA moving over the terminals. Surface winds, outside of showers, are on track to remain easterly near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 76 83 76 / 50 50 70 70 Marathon 84 77 83 76 / 40 60 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ077-078. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284118 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:18 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 904 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 903 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 903 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The previous forecast appears to be on track, and no major changes were made. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Increasing cloud cover and relatively low dew points today will generally lead to low rain chances for most of today. Northeast winds this morning become more easterly this afternoon, allowing for gradually moistening throughout the afternoon and evening. This could allow for a brief window of opportunity for some light showers late in the afternoon/early evening as instability looks to be uncapped for a couple hours. Otherwise, expect it to be a warm and increasingly cloudy day with gusty easterly winds. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf this weekend will allow rain chances to increase heading into Sunday through Monday morning. Given the prevailing northeast to easterly flow across the region, this shortwave looks to induce showers and possibly a couple storms mostly along our coastal areas and offshore, where instability looks to be available. Otherwise, areas inland should expect mostly light to moderate rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Ridging then prevails across eastern CONUS through midweek before the next trough and associated frontal system looks to approach the region from the west. Rain chances will once again be in the forecast Wednesday through the end of the work week. Generally expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Prevailing VFR conds for today and this evening under a multi- layered thick cloud deck and breezy east winds. Frequent gusts around 20 kts are fcst. For tonight, lowering cigs down to MVFR with embedded showers spread from the west to SW. Another stratus deck may also spread from the east towards VLD by around 6Z. Highest confidence in precipitation is at ECP where a PROB30 was intro`d for -SHRA starting at 6Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected through this morning with winds near 20 knots for our offshore waters. A surface low will pass over our waters this weekend, increasing winds across most of the near shore waters as well for Saturday night through Monday. As the surface low departs, winds and seas are expected to diminish back to moderate breezes on Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected across the region over the next week, with isolated higher amounts likely along the coast this weekend as an area of low pressure moves across the eastern Gulf. There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 67 78 64 / 10 20 40 40 Panama City 82 67 77 64 / 0 40 60 30 Dothan 81 64 74 61 / 10 20 50 40 Albany 80 63 75 60 / 10 0 30 40 Valdosta 81 65 78 63 / 10 10 40 40 Cross City 84 69 80 65 / 0 30 50 50 Apalachicola 78 68 75 66 / 0 40 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284117 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:24 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 812 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue this Weekend. Moderate Tidal Flooding Continues south of Shands Bridge through. High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all beaches through Sunday. Small Craft Advisories Continue through Sunday. Strong Gusts at the beaches Today and Sunday (around 30-35 mph) - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for Northeast FL at. Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night. Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast FL && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantange of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Marginal Risk of Flooding due to Excessive Rainfall Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Wet and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter will relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... The 12Z period will start with restrictions for IFR ceilings at CRG/JAX/VQQ/GNV generally between 0.5-1.0 kft through 14Z with scattered ceilings ranging from 3.0 kft near SGJ and may lower to 1.5 kft at SSI as a front sinks southward and showers approach from the east through 15Z there. A front moving southward to the area and increasing moisture will bring some potential for showers at the SSI terminals during the afternoon hours, so have placed a PROB30 group for MVFR ceilings and visibilities after 18Z until 00Z. Otherwise, the confidence in placement of showers is less, so have VCSH for all sites this afternoon, with a lull after 00Z. Winds will increase today as high pressure wedges down the southeast coast behind the front moving in from the north and pinching the local pressure gradient. Winds will rise to the about 15 knots gusting to 25 knots at SGJ/SSI/CRG/JAX with 12-15 knots inland gusting to 20-25 knots this afternoon. Have increasing mid level clouds tonight with VCSH noted at Duval county and SSI terminals as the front weakens as it moves into Northeast FL. Winds will diminish some along the coast after 00Z to 10-12 knots and gusting to 20 knots with just under 10 knots inland overnight. Will ascertain if lower ceilings appear more likely late tonight with subsequent forecast, but for now confidence is too low for mention. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGH NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS FOR THE COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.. A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 79 63 76 62 / 10 10 30 40 SSI 76 64 74 63 / 40 40 40 60 JAX 79 66 77 64 / 40 30 60 60 SGJ 79 70 77 67 / 10 20 60 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 60 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 20 40 50 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284115 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:36 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 729 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 724 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Deep layer ridging covers the Southeast and much of the center of the country, with a shortwave over eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley. Ensembles generally bring the shortwave through the Southeast overnight tonight through Monday morning, and only gradually nudge the low-level ridge axis northeastward. Then, ridging briefly builds back over the Southeast before a stronger frontal system reaches and crosses through the Southeast mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The continued strong easterly flow at the base of the low-level ridge will keep the coastal trough in place and allow for scattered showers to move inland today and tonight. While the probability of rainfall across south Florida is high, the scattered nature of the showers makes it difficult to pinpoint where and when a location may be impacted by a passing shower. The one thing hi-res guidance does agree on is that the highest probability of heavier rainfall is in the late night/early morning hours (within training bands) with mostly light to moderate showers during the daytime. Additionally, with the exception of any training, showers should be rather brief since the steady easterly flow is expected to keep showers moving quickly. The deep-layer forcing associated with the approaching shortwave is forecast to arrive late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. The primary expectation is more widespread rainfall with the assist from the large-scale ascent and high PWATs. With the low-level easterly flow expected to continue (and the associated trough remaining in place), the pattern of west-east oriented bands of heavier precip will likely continue but be enhanced by the support aloft. For these reasons the WPC has outlooked much of the Florida east coast with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Essentially this is a level 2/4 risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding potential. On average across South Florida, a reasonable worst case QPF would be on the order of 1.5-2", but wherever an W/E oriented band sets up, the reasonable worst case jumps closer to 3- 5". With those amounts likely to fall over the course of 1-3 hours, there would be a slight flash flooding risk. Since this risk runs through the overnight hours Sunday, into early Monday morning, WPC keeps the FL east coast under a Slight Risk in Monday`s outlook as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low- level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A lower cloud deck will bring MVFR ceilings to the region through 15z before gradually lifting to VFR across most of the terminals. ENE winds will generally range between 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible throughout the day and into the evening hours. Scattered showers will remain possible throughout the forecast period and could bring periods of MVFR if they pass over the terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 76 82 74 / 60 60 90 80 West Kendall 86 76 84 74 / 60 50 90 80 Opa-Locka 85 75 83 73 / 50 60 80 80 Homestead 86 76 84 74 / 60 60 90 80 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 81 73 / 50 70 90 90 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 82 73 / 50 70 90 90 Pembroke Pines 85 75 84 73 / 50 60 90 80 West Palm Beach 84 75 82 72 / 40 50 70 80 Boca Raton 83 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 90 Naples 86 73 84 71 / 50 20 80 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284114 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 619 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Trick-or-Treat weather will be a treat! Dry and temperatures in the 70s! - Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms. - Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Warm temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Monday. A potent low moving across the southern Great Plains will send a cold front through South Texas around Tuesday, though there is still disagreement on the timing and southern extent of the front. As things currently stand, it looks like rain chances will increase late Monday night into Tuesday, with a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms along the Coastal Bend and northern Coastal Plains. The best dynamics continue to remain north of the area, but there could be an occasional strong to severe thunderstorm. We`ll continue to monitor the trends. Will have to continue to monitor the possibility for minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches into the weekend, as well as an increased rip current risk. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Currently have MVFR down to LIFR conditions across South Texas. Will maintain these conditions in TAFs until late morning/early afternoon when VFR VSBYs/CIGs are expected to return. Another round of fog and lower ceilings with VFR to LIFR conditions are expected again tonight but have more uncertainty with regards to CIG development due to partly cloudy skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through the weekend, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower will be possible through today. Rain chances return early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Low-level moisture and light winds will continue to limit fire weather concerns. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Monday night/Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 70 84 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 81 67 82 67 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 86 71 88 72 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 71 81 72 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 82 69 85 70 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 86 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 73 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284113 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 624 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with minor coastal flooding also possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Forecast remains on track. MM/25 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A rather diffuse and complex pattern makes for a challenging Halloweekend forecast. At the surface, broad high pressure over the Northeast maintains an easterly to southeasterly flow across the area, bringing in Atlantic and Gulf moisture, especially along the coast and northwestward into Mississippi. Southwesterly flow persists aloft as the upper ridge shifts east and a weak shortwave trough approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Deep-layer moisture will increase as this shortwave approaches, with PWATs climbing to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches tonight, near the 95th percentile for late October. Rain chances will begin increasing as early as mid to late afternoon, initially favoring areas west of I-65. Southeast Mississippi could see numerous showers and storms develop during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially impacting trick-or-treating plans. Elsewhere, coverage should remain more isolated to scattered through the evening before increasing overnight into Sunday morning. PoPs of 60-70% are forecast areawide by Sunday morning. One concern with this setup is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Opposing easterly low-level and westerly upper-level flow will result in weak mean- layer flow, generally 10 knots or less, so any deeper convection that develops could be slow-moving. Combined with anomalously high PWATs and a deep warm cloud layer, rainfall rates could be quite efficient. Most areas should see around 0.5-1 inch of rain, but isolated totals of 3-4 inches are possible where heavier showers or storms develop. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Confidence in the rainfall distribution remains low given the weak forcing. Latest HREF and REFS guidance continues to show a rather variable rainfall footprint, with isolated heavier bullseyes surrounded by areas receiving considerably less. While some locations could see significant rainfall, others may receive very little. Rain chances will gradually decrease Sunday afternoon as the disturbance shifts east. Widespread cloud cover and breezy easterly winds will persist, keeping temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Shortwave ridging and developing northwesterly flow aloft will then support dry conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. The main story heading into midweek will be a larger storm system expected to impact much of the central and eastern CONUS. A northern- stream trough will phase with a subtropical jet streak entering the southern Rockies, with the eventual evolution of the trough having important implications for our area. Depending on how the trough ejects from the central Plains early next week, there is some potential for severe weather across portions of the local area during the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe. A slower, more amplified solution involving a closed-off trough digging toward the Lower Mississippi Valley could promote surface low development farther south, enhancing low-level wind shear across the Southeast. Conversely, a faster and more progressive solution would keep the strongest dynamics farther north and away from the better instability, limiting the local severe threat. Model guidance remains inconsistent regarding the timing, strength, and placement of these features, so confidence remains low at this range. This is something we will continue to monitor over the coming days. A cold front will eventually move through the area, bringing a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows should fall well into the 40s late next week into next weekend, bringing a noticeable cooldown to the region. A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, surf heights are forecast to increase to around 4 to 6 feet by Sunday, and a High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. Trends will be monitored for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR flight category continues across the region through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible throughout the day and tonight, mainly west of the I-65 corridor. This may result in temporary reductions in flight category. Winds remain out of the east at 5 to 10 knots during the day, relaxing to near 5 knots at night. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots can`t be ruled out near the coast this afternoon. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon, becoming strong by tonight. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 8pm tonight through 8pm Monday. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 66 74 63 / 30 50 60 20 Pensacola 80 69 74 66 / 20 60 60 30 Destin 81 68 76 66 / 10 50 60 30 Evergreen 80 64 71 60 / 20 40 70 40 Waynesboro 81 64 72 60 / 60 70 60 20 Camden 75 63 68 59 / 20 50 60 40 Crestview 82 66 74 63 / 20 40 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1284111 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:18 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 703 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Increasing cloud cover and relatively low dew points today will generally lead to low rain chances for most of today. Northeast winds this morning become more easterly this afternoon, allowing for gradually moistening throughout the afternoon and evening. This could allow for a brief window of opportunity for some light showers late in the afternoon/early evening as instability looks to be uncapped for a couple hours. Otherwise, expect it to be a warm and increasingly cloudy day with gusty easterly winds. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf this weekend will allow rain chances to increase heading into Sunday through Monday morning. Given the prevailing northeast to easterly flow across the region, this shortwave looks to induce showers and possibly a couple storms mostly along our coastal areas and offshore, where instability looks to be available. Otherwise, areas inland should expect mostly light to moderate rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Ridging then prevails across eastern CONUS through midweek before the next trough and associated frontal system looks to approach the region from the west. Rain chances will once again be in the forecast Wednesday through the end of the work week. Generally expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Prevailing VFR conds for today and this evening under a multi- layered thick cloud deck and breezy east winds. Frequent gusts around 20 kts are fcst. For tonight, lowering cigs down to MVFR with embedded showers spread from the west to SW. Another stratus deck may also spread from the east towards VLD by around 6Z. Highest confidence in precipitation is at ECP where a PROB30 was intro`d for -SHRA starting at 6Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected through this morning with winds near 20 knots for our offshore waters. A surface low will pass over our waters this weekend, increasing winds across most of the near shore waters as well for Saturday night through Monday. As the surface low departs, winds and seas are expected to diminish back to moderate breezes on Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected across the region over the next week, with isolated higher amounts likely along the coast this weekend as an area of low pressure moves across the eastern Gulf. There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 67 78 64 / 10 20 40 40 Panama City 82 67 77 64 / 0 40 60 30 Dothan 81 64 74 61 / 10 20 50 40 Albany 80 63 75 60 / 10 0 30 40 Valdosta 81 65 78 63 / 10 10 40 40 Cross City 84 69 80 65 / 0 30 50 50 Apalachicola 78 68 75 66 / 0 40 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284110 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 552 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines posted in addition this will help to create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Rain returns to the area today with the best chance of rain likely this afternoon through midday Sunday possibly impacting some Halloween Trick-or-Treating or gatherings. - Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The coastal flood advisory will remain as each high tide cycle during this king tide is causing some minor innundation along sections of the coast. These tide levels should begin to lower below coastal flood limits by Tue or Wed. The mid and upper level "swirl" seen in WV imagery over coastal TX is what`s left of Vance from the eastPAC. This will help get some sh/ts going later today as the bulk of moisture moves through. This feature won`t overstay its welcome but it will cause some aggrevation with hit and miss sh/ts for Halloween around our area. There will be some lingering showers and maybe a storm or two but most of the moderate to heavy rain should be moving out Sunday. The cloud cover will stay behind and light showers will dot the map after Sunday as the cold front approaches causing a new draw of moisture feed, stealing from the departing system. The cold front is moving at a good pace through east TX by Tuesday. No severe storms are expected with the first of these two systems with the exception of the coastal waters, but the jury is still out on the cold front itself. The front should begin moving through the area Tuesday night. The main sfc low and short wave will be departing well to the north as it pulls NE bringing the best severe wx variables with it. This stretches the southern portion of the frontal axis causing it to weaken in the absence of any other low developing along the boundary. That is not to say there will be no strong/severe storms associated with it though. Numbers are moderate at best with CAPE values from 1k-1.5kj and 0-3SRH values at their highest are around 250. The problem is the highest of these values do not coincide. The highest CAPE values come in around 3p Tue while the highest SRH values come in as the front is passing late Tue night. The CAPE values are around 600j as the front is passing and this is the time with the best dynamic load. This leads us to the conclusion that there is the potential for a few strong/severe storms occurring, and the highest potential timing would be along the front as it moves through. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The front will continue to pass through the region Wednesday morning before exiting stage east by afternoon. Behind the front, northerly surface flow takes over with CAA developing over the CWFA. Aloft the broad scale H5 troughing will continue downstream with only a subtle drop in temperatures given the Pacific origin of the airmass expected to spread into the region. That said, around or maybe slightly below average Max/Min Temps Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning. Overall, a dry trend is anticipated as the upper flow becomes a dry northwest and eventually zonal or more progressive flow going into late week and into next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR conditions through much of today. Cigs drop to around 5000ft by afternoon as isolated showers and storms develop, then lower into MVFR by this evening and finally IFR by midnight for all terminals. PROB groups will be used for precip timing. Easterly winds will increase a bit, especially coastal terminals where some gusts of 15 to 20kts will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through this weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores through this weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms today and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ070- 076-078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ086- 087. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284109 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:09 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 704 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers will move east to west across areas around I-4 southward this afternoon and evening. - Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Areas of light rain could cause briefly lower cigs/vsbys around Tampa Bay this morning, then for the rest of the period, showers will be possible at just about any time. Hard to pinpoint any one timeframe, but this messy pattern will stick around through the forecast period, though overall rain chances will be higher starting tomorrow afternoon, just outside of this TAF period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Surface high pressure coupled with upper level ridging across Florida will keep conditions similar to yesterday. Enough moisture will be available to produce isolated to scattered showers throughout the day. Greatest chances will remain mostly south of I4 today. However, by Sunday, ridging aloft will break down as a mid level disturbance moves towards the area. Moisture increases Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary works northward over the peninsula. This will lead to more widespread coverage of showers through Sunday night into Monday. WPC has placed the entire region in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Localized urban flooding could be possible with heavy downpours, especially in typical troublesome areas. Beyond the rainfall potential, a tight pressure gradient remains in place, keeping conditions gusty. Early in the week high pressure will build back in with clearing skies and decreased rain chances. Temperatures will also creep back up to above normal through the week. However, some relief will arrive following a cold front that is expected to move through Thursday into Friday. Once the cold front moves through, slightly cooler and drier air will filter in as next weekend arrives. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Gusty exercise caution to near advisory level northeast winds continue as the pressure gradient remains tight. Rain chances will increased through the weekend into Monday. High pressure will build back in early next week, and winds will finally diminish below any headlines. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity levels remain above critical values. Rain chances increase through the weekend into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 73 81 70 / 20 20 60 60 FMY 87 74 85 71 / 40 20 70 70 GIF 86 72 82 70 / 20 30 60 70 SRQ 86 73 82 69 / 20 20 60 70 BKV 86 71 82 67 / 10 20 60 60 SPG 83 73 79 70 / 20 20 60 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1284108 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible expected along portions of the South Carolina coast early this afternoon. - 2) Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. - 3) Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the South Carolina coast early this afternoon. Northeast winds will strengthen along the SC coast around sunrise this morning. Gusty northeast winds should increase through the high tide cycle this morning into early this afternoon. As a result, tidal departures should gradually increase through mid-day. The astronomical tide within the Charleston Harbor will peak at 6.31 ft MLLW around 12:58 PM. Given the gusty northeast winds, water levels in Charleston Harbor may crest within minor flood stage early this afternoon. A Coastal Flood Advisory could be needed for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties. KEY MESSAGE 2: Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. Gusty northeast winds and building seas expected along all beaches of GA and SC today. A High Risk of rip currents will remain until 8 PM this evening. Reminder: The local rip current program will end later today, October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. Today: Upper level ridging begins to degrade as a wedge of high pressure meanders along the northeast coast, setting up a coastal trough just offshore. As noted in the previous discussion, should see winds pick up through the afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected along the coast. Currently have gusts ranging between 25 to 30 mph, with isolated pockets up to 35 mph possible near Darien. Similar to yesterday, have highs warming into the upper 70s to low 80s. Mid to low-level moisture will also increase during this time, resulting in increased cloud cover through the afternoon. While largely dry conditions are forecast to prevail, can`t rule out seeing in isolated shower or two across McIntosh County. Lake Moultrie: A brief window of breezy winds may occur shortly after sunrise on Lake Moultrie, with gusts nearing 25 knots. Nonetheless, have opted to forgo a Lake Wind Advisory as confidence in strength and duration still remain low. Sunday: Breezy winds continue across the region, with highs a touch cooler in the mid 70s. Once again, should see dry conditions largely prevail, as the aforementioned coastal low keeps the precipitation shield offshore. In the event that showers do meander a touch inland, expect amounts to remain less than a quarter of an inch. Sunday Night Onward: The center of the surface high pressure to our north begins to shift out into the Atlantic, with the coastal trough remaining just offshore of our local waters. Combined with increasing low-level moisture and a weak slow moving shortwave, chances for light scattered showers will build across the region late Sunday night through Monday. Again, not expecting to see much in the way of significant rainfall. Rather, will likely only see a few hundredths to tenths at best. While a few showers may linger into Tuesday, overall confidence remains fairly low as model guidance begins to diverge with how the upper level pattern will evolve. So, will continue to monitor trends in the meantime. Otherwise, look for breezy northeast winds to persist, with highs in the mid 70s Monday rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 12Z TAFs: VFR. Cirrus will likely stream west to east across the terminals through the TAF period. The pressure gradient will increase across the region today, supporting gusty northeast winds, with gusts around 20 kts common during the daylight hours. Gusts should subside this evening, with steady northeast winds around 10 kts through the rest of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds continue, with an increased risk for rain impacts Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A backdoor cold front will push south across the SC/GA marine zones this morning. In the wake of the front, a building ridge of sfc high pressure will yield gusty northeast winds, gusts generally between 25-30 kts. Some gusts into the low 30s are possible across the GA waters and lower SC waters this afternoon. Wave heights will begin the day between 3-6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft by early this evening. Wave heights may decrease by 1-2 ft overnight. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) will remain in effect for the Charleston Harbor, nearshore SC and GA waters, and outer GA waters today. The SCA for the CHS Harbor will end a 8 PM this evening, remaining outside the harbor due to gusty winds and elevated seas. Sunday through Wednesday: With high pressure lingering through mid- week, expect northeasterly winds to remain breezy during the day and gusty at night. This will keep wave heights in the 5 to 8 ft range into Wednesday, thus resulting in a prolonged period of SCAs. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362- 364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284107 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:06 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 652 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend 2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South. Marine: A cold front will bring a surge of northeasterly SCA winds and seas through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front has just cleared the Crystal Coast early this morning and will continue to push south of ENC through the day. In the wake of this front, a cooler northeast flow will support noticeably lower temperatures compared to what we saw yesterday. Over the weekend, highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could. The same probably holds true for Sunday night as well. KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance varies drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential. While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. Light northeast winds this morning are expected to become gusty by mid-morning, with gusts of 20-25kt likely. The post-frontal airmass is dry, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail. The drier airmass should also limit the MIFG/BR/FG risk tonight, despite weakening winds. Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the potential. && .MARINE... A cold front is moving through the central and southern waters early this morning. Behind the front, obs show winds have quickly increased to 15-25kt, and seas are at 3-4 ft and building. While the strongest winds are likely to accompany the front this morning, persistent, moderate northeast winds should lead to seas building to 4-7 ft for most coastal waters. The one exception is for the sheltered nearshore waters south of Cape Lookout where seas will top out in the 3-4 foot range. The gradient is forecast to relax some by Sunday. However, a re- tightening of the gradient may occur south of Ocracoke Inlet, and 25kt winds may last further into the weekend there than currently advertised. For now, the Small Craft Advisories remain unchanged, but some extension in time may be needed for those above-mentioned southern waters. Outlook: Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1284106 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 557 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances expected through this afternoon as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through. - Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday. - The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the mid-level trough just over the region, which is gradually moving northeast. Deep low to mid-level moisture still persists, and as a result we continue to see intermittent light to moderate showers overnight. Deep moisture axis will continue to shift east-northeast today (Saturday) as the main upper trough lifts into the Lower MS Valley. The combination of deep moisture, subtle forcing still persisting aloft and daytime heating will lead to rain and storm chances through the day. Latest Hi-res guidance shows a less active forecast for today, showing only isolated to scattered showers and storms, not as widespread. The main focus will be for areas along and east of I-45 and adjacent Gulf waters. Most of this activity should taper off by late this afternoon/early evening, though some spotty rain will be possible north of I-10 through the night. Once the trough shifts east and forcing/dynamics aloft move out of the region, weak ridging aloft should support quieter conditions through at least Monday. Expect drier and warmer conditions on Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will deepen as it tracks eastward across the Plains by Monday. As this trough deepens and amplifies over the central CONUS, it will drag a cold front southeastward across SE Texas by Tuesday. Latest guidance is coming with better agreement regarding the phasing and timing of this FROPA, bringing the front across our westernmost areas by Tuesday morning, and reaching the coast by Tuesday evening/night. A few showers and storms are possible ahead of the front (late Monday through Tuesday), with increasing chances along the boundary. At the moment, instability is limited, so severe weather potential is low but nonzero and impacts from localized heavy rainfall will strongly depend on the final progression of this system. For now, prepare for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the wake of the front, drier and cooler weather is expected with near- seasonal temperatures. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Isolated to scattered showers continue over the northern terminals (CXO and northward) early this morning. For the region in general, there is a mixed bag of LIFR to MVFR ceilings and visibility. The general trend is LIFR/IFR ceilings remaining possible through ~16Z, then MVFR ceilings remaining possible through ~19-20Z. An additional round of scattered showers is expected to develop late this morning and into the afternoon mainly along and east of I-45. PROB30 groups reflect the most likely timing. An isolated storm or two cannot be completely ruled out. Winds will remain light and generally easterly throughout the day with wind speeds near 4-8 kt. Model guidance depicts the potential for widespread LIFR/IFR ceilings overnight into Sunday morning. Patchy fog may also lead to reduced visibilities especially between 08-15Z. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight through at least early this afternoon. Elevated winds with gusts of 20 to 30+ kts and seas around 4ft can be expected near any strong thunderstorms. Showers and storms should diminish later today, resulting in light to occasionally moderate east to northeast winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds will transition to the east-southeast by Sunday, before moderate late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is progged to reach the coastal waters by Tuesday night/early Wednesday with moderate to strong offshore winds in its wake. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 80 65 84 66 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 68 83 69 / 40 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 71 79 72 / 30 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284105 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:03 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 655 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 - Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast. - There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road. - Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Mid-level ridging is parked atop the Sunshine State this morning. A broad area of above-normal H5 heights extends over the eastern half of the U.S. In the polar jet stream, a shortwave over New England is responsible for reinforcing a continental high-pressure system over the Great Lakes. In the West, a longwave trough axis sits just offshore of California. Additional shortwave energy, on the nose of the subtropical jet, is located over Texas. By Sunday evening, the surface high should move into the Mid-Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over Florida yet again. Meanwhile, the mid-level shortwave currently over Texas is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf and/or Florida. Guidance has continued to trend slower with the arrival of this feature. A surface reflection, most likely in the form of a weak trough, may attempt to form over the eastern Gulf by Sunday evening. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence is anticipated to coincide with a broad area of upper-level jet diffluence, especially from Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, total moisture (PWAT) is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology over Florida. This disturbance is forecast to weaken by Tuesday as it crawls eastward. By Wednesday night, cluster analysis of the 30/12Z ensemble suite shows another shortwave trough axis approaching the Mississippi Valley. With additional jet stream energy on its heels, guidance suggests this trough will begin to weaken as it reaches the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This portends a rather unimpressive cold frontal passage for Florida sometime on Thursday. Somewhat drier air is still likely to reach the state once it passes. The subtropical jet is forecast to become quasi-zonal over the Southern U.S. late next week and into the following weekend. Global ensembles indicate a weak ridge developing near Florida, maintaining above-normal H85 (5 kft) temperatures. The next signal appears to be a southern stream trough entering the Desert Southwest next weekend. It is not expected to reach Florida until at least Monday the 9th. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Unfortunately, high-res guidance has struggled with the pesky band of showers that has remained over portions of the Treasure Coast the last 12 hours or so. We expect that periodic showers will continue to stream off of the Atlantic, especially for areas south of Cape Canaveral today. Rain chances range from 10-30% northwest of I-4 to 50-60% from Melbourne southward. Lightning chances remain low (<25%). Showers that repeatedly affect the same areas may drop 1-3" on a very isolated basis, so we will continue to monitor trends for localized flooding. East-northeast winds increase a bit today as the gradient tightens up. Expect occasional gusts from 20-30 mph this afternoon. This will continue to generate rough surf and numerous, life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. A High Surf Advisory will go into effect at 5 PM today. Please refrain from entering the ocean. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with the midday high tide mainly from near St. Lucie Inlet and points southward into Martin County. Warm and muggy today with highs in the low/mid 80s. Sunday - Monday... As mentioned in the overview, several factors favor widespread coverage (60-80%) of showers with a few storms (20-30%). Sunday may not be a washout for all of the area, however, as the disturbance responsible for the active weather is moving in a bit slower. We anticipate the greatest areal coverage of rain sometime later Sunday through midday Monday. The influx of energy and moisture, combined with frictional convergence and some instability emerging off the Atlantic, favor the I-95 corridor for training bands of heavy rain. To make matters worse, much of the Treasure Coast is nearly saturated from recent rains. Through Monday night, most likely rainfall tallies of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for much of east central Florida, with a 5-10% chance of localized 5" or greater totals. Where these higher amounts fall in a shorter timeframe, flash flooding could result. Easterly winds will be strongest on Sunday, with gusts up to 30 mph. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect on Sunday at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Additionally, another round of minor coastal flooding is forecast south of St. Lucie Inlet with the early afternoon high tide cycle, especially on Sunday. The high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist into early next week. Tuesday - Thursday... Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but above-normal moisture is forecast to remain in place. Shower chances will continue, with 30-40% coverage expected. Storm chances remain low, at 20% or less. A cold front is slated to get here sometime on Thursday or Thursday night, albeit on a weakening trend. A thin line of showers and isolated storms may accompany the boundary. Severe weather potential still looks quite limited. Remaining warm, with highs in the low/mid 80s. Friday - Next Weekend... There is some disagreement with how much dry air will be advected over Florida behind the cold front late this week, and appreciable cold advection should be stymied by progressive zonal flow. The favored scenario is a clean enough frontal passage for mostly dry, pleasant weather during this timeframe. Warm afternoons and somewhat cooler nights would prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories continue for all but the nearshore Volusia waters this morning, but even that zone will go beneath the advisory by this afternoon. ENE winds 15-25 kts by this afternoon, lasting through Sunday. Seas building to 6-9 ft from this afternoon into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 653 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 On and off showers are forecast through the TAF period with ENE flow. TEMPO groups for MVFR CIGs exist between 12Z-13Z at KTIX and KSUA, as well as between 17Z/18Z-21Z/22Z for MVFR CIGs at KMLB southwards. Expect ENE winds at 6-12kts with gusts up to 18kts to increase after 14Z with gusts up to 20kts-25kts before gradually weakening tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 73 80 70 / 10 20 60 70 MCO 84 72 80 70 / 30 40 70 70 MLB 83 74 81 71 / 50 50 70 80 VRB 84 74 83 72 / 60 50 80 80 LEE 84 71 80 69 / 10 30 60 70 SFB 83 72 81 71 / 20 30 70 70 ORL 84 73 80 71 / 20 30 70 70 FPR 84 75 82 72 / 60 50 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284104 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:00 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 645 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington, for this afternoon`s high tide. No significant forecast changes with the latest update. Beach Hazard Statement issued for strong longshore current at east- facing beaches today. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. 2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. High pressure will build across the area today following an early morning cold front. Temperatures will drop to near-normal through early next week. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast this afternoon. Dry weather is expected through much of this week with high pressure in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. Precipitable water is expected to increase late this week as an upper low approaches the southeastern US. Southerly return flow could support an increase in rain chances. Forecast spread in regards to both upper level heights and precipitable water remains high in an amplifying pattern. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR with scattered to broken high clouds. Northeast winds through the TAF period, with gusts of 15-20kt through sunset. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 256. && $$ |
| #1284103 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:57 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 547 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 546 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Sunday. - Dry, hot conditions expected through Halloween weekend. - Cold front early next week will bring cooler temperatures and increased chances of rain near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Ridging over north-central Mexico will maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures remain warm for late October/early November, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s, gradually climbing each afternoon through Monday ahead of our next front. A closed low will dig into the Southern Plains early next week, delivering a cold front to deep South Texas on Election Day. Highs on Tuesday will depend on the fronts arrival time and how early CAA begins. Rain chances have consistently stayed low along the front for the CWA, with a line of showers and thunderstorms possibly clipping the northern Ranchlands and coast. Cooler, drier conditions return Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. At local beaches, persistent easterly flow and higher than usual tides will continue to contribute to elevated water levels and minor coastal flooding through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement will be extended through Sunday. Tide levels should begin decreasing early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy rain-free skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and 5 to 7 second period swell will prevail through the weekend. Rain chances return Tuesday with a passing cold front. This front may bring Small Craft Caution conditions with moderate seas across the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 90 70 89 70 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 92 72 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 76 82 76 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1284102 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:51 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 647 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. - High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. A cooler day is expected today as the post-frontal air mass moves in. Aloft, 925 mb temperatures cool to around 0C and NW winds continue, yet weaken with high pressure building in. Highs on Halloween will only reach the 50s as a result. Skies clear, and winds falling to or near calm Halloween night will allow for radiational cooling, dropping lows to the 20s and low 30s for much of the region. As is normally the case, the coldest readings will be found across the far interior where lows fall to near 20 degrees. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. High pressure will remain firmly in control of southern New England`s weather clear through at least mid to late week as this stretch of pleasant weather continues. A large high moving in from New York will initially move overhead on Sunday, replaced by another dropping south from Canada into Maine mid week. A weak trough will pass over the Canadian maritimes around Tuesday bringing the potential for some showers to northern New England but lack of moisture and dynamics over SNE will keep us dry. The next chance for a pattern change comes around late Thursday/Friday when a mid level trough may dig into the mid-Atlantic, but that is not a certainty at this point. EPS and GEFS ensembles paint a 70-90% chance of PWATS climbing above 1" Thursday-Saturday next week. Run to run variability shows less of a signal for QPF with the latest members showing probs of >0.5" of 24 hr QPF falling from 60-70% for the 12z runs to 30-50%. In the mean time, high pressure maintains a milder than average airmass overhead leading to comfortable highs in the 60s all week. Winds should be light until Friday when our passing low would bring a period of gusty winds. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 12z TAF Update... Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. NW winds around 7-14 kt with a few gusts in the lower 20 knot range through lunchtime, with gusts easing in the afternoon. Winds then go light WNW/calm overnight. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. WSW winds of 5-10 knots. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. SCAs remain in effect through 18z this afternoon given NW winds gusting to 30 kt through tonight and seas to 5 ft into this morning for the outer waters. While winds gradually diminish through the day seas will generally be between 4-5 feet for the outer waters. Heading into this evening and overnight, winds and seas diminish; winds generally fall to 10 kt or less and seas decrease to around 2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds falling to 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230>237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254. && $$ |
| #1284101 (Received by flhurricane at: 6:06 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 554 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. 2) Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. A cold front is well to our south early this morning, with NNE winds gusting to 20-25 mph near the coast in the wake of the front (and lighter winds inland). CAA is not particularly strong for the last day of October, but temps have fallen into the upper 40s-lower 60s and will fall to the mid 40s-lower 50s by sunrise. Cooler, dry, and pleasant today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure builds over the area this evening through Sunday, which will allow for winds to diminish. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. Certainly no weather issues for those trick-or-treating. Lows Sunday morning drop into the upper 30s-mid 40s. A shortwave approaches on Sunday and crosses the area on Monday, which will allow for cloud cover to increase. However, due to the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not expected. It will turn slightly milder on Sunday and Monday, with a few 70F readings possible Monday afternoon across southern VA/NE NC. Cool again Monday morning with upper 30s-mid 40s in most areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. The gradual warming trend continues into mid next week, as an upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS while surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system is progged to develop in the Plains on Tuesday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by late next week. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night and continue into Friday. However, there are lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of the system. So while some of the models do show widespread rainfall, others do not. Therefore, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 600 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals will prevail through the 12z TAF period. Gusty NNE winds (to ~20 kt) persist today near the coast before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles over the area. SKC today with SCT high clouds moving over the area by late tonight. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Elevated NNE winds and seas continue this morning before subsiding later today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the first half of next week. Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front now south of our area settling in across NC and SC. High pressure is building in from the northwest ushering in a cooler airmass. This has allowed NNE winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt along most of the local waters (minus the upper rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound for these elevated winds through 10am. Waves in the middle Bay are becoming 2-3ft with the lower and mouth of the Bay reaching 3-4ft. SCAs are also in effect for the coastal waters out to 20nm for seas expected to build to 5- 6ft over the next few hours. The SCAs will drop off for the waters north of Cape Charles early this afternoon as seas diminish a bit earlier than the southern zones, which drop off at 7pm. Winds and waves/seas will diminish through the afternoon. High pressure will persist overhead with winds remaining easterly around 10kt into early next week. Seas are forecast to be 2-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Dry conditions will continue through mid-week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1284100 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:21 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 515 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Peak high tides in the Lower Keys have decreased enough to warrant a Coastal FLood Advisory, but a Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect for the Middle and Upper Keys. Coastal flooding will continue to gradually decrease over the weekend, but receding rates will be slow, especially in the Upper Keys. - Gentle to occasionally moderate northeasterly breezes may see an uptick by tonight, but are expected to diminish again by tomorrow. - There is increasing confidence in a wet, stormy period from tonight through Monday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The good news is that peak high tides near 1 AM this morning were comparatively lower than previous nights, so our high tides are trending downward for now. For this reason, the Lower Keys have had their previous Coastal Flood Warning replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory. With that being said, high tides in the Middle and Upper Keys were still on the higher end of the Moderate Flood category, so the Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect there. Radar activity increased during this overnight shift as an area of low level vorticity is moving across our forecast area. The cyclonic motion is most notable in the showers across the Florida Straits where some showers are moving north-northwestward while others are moving southwest. On the north side of the island chain, showers are moving almost due west. This points to an area of convergence somewhere in the vicinity of the southeastern GUlf and Gulfside waters, so additional shower development there is likely in the coming hours. We have not seen any precipitation measurements come in on any of the automated observations along the Keys, but radar estimated rainfall suggests that a few hundredths of an inch have fallen across our island communities. The heaviest showers remained over the distant Florida Straits, but a small cluster of heavier showers is present over the Bayside waters. Skies aren`t cloudy enough to obstruct radar-derived products, and it looks like there has been an increase in lower level moisture across the area that coincides with this area of low level vorticity. We`ll opt to keep the inherited chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. There aren`t any features that particularly indicate that any specific portion of our forecast area should remain shower free, so expect an on and off pattern of showers this morning with period of sunshine peeking between clouds. NOrtheasterly breezes will freshen slightly throughout today as high pressure over the eastern/southeastern U.S. strengthens, and the pressure gradient, especially to our north, tightens. Occasional breezy conditions may be seen in the Upper Keys by tonight, but these will be short lived as the pattern continues to evolve. && .MARINE... Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 THere are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, an expansive area of high pressure developing over the eastern U.S. will be able to support moderate to fresh breezes across the Florida Keys waters through this weekend, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be required for all marine zones by tonight. While the pressure gradient will not be sufficient to keep moderate to fresh breezes for the entire weekend, northerly swell from the Atlantic Ocean will keep waves elevated through the early part of the week. Shower chances will peak Sunday through Monday. Drier conditions will set up mid week, and breezes are on track to slacken to light to gentle. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A slight increase in moisture across the area will continue to support spotty, light showers. As a result, VFR conditions will occasionally give way to MVFR CIGs throughout the TAF period. However, these lowered categories will be short lived, so the prevailing sky cover in the TAFs will remain VFR. Surface winds near 10 knots out of the northeast will veer to the east. Drier conditions are expected to move in closer to the end of the TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, in 1999, the daily record rainfall of 4.05" was recorded in Marathon. Precipitation records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 84 76 83 76 / 50 50 70 70 Marathon 84 77 83 76 / 40 60 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076-077. Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ078. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284099 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 426 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters, winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the marine zones starting tonight through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Increasing cloud cover and relatively low dew points today will generally lead to low rain chances for most of today. Northeast winds this morning become more easterly this afternoon, allowing for gradually moistening throughout the afternoon and evening. This could allow for a brief window of opportunity for some light showers late in the afternoon/early evening as instability looks to be uncapped for a couple hours. Otherwise, expect it to be a warm and increasingly cloudy day with gusty easterly winds. Daytime highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A shortwave moving across the northern Gulf this weekend will allow rain chances to increase heading into Sunday through Monday morning. Given the prevailing northeast to easterly flow across the region, this shortwave looks to induce showers and possibly a couple storms mostly along our coastal areas and offshore, where instability looks to be available. Otherwise, areas inland should expect mostly light to moderate rain showers with an isolated thunderstorm possible. Ridging then prevails across eastern CONUS through midweek before the next trough and associated frontal system looks to approach the region from the west. Rain chances will once again be in the forecast Wednesday through the end of the work week. Generally expect daytime highs in the mid 70s to low 80s with overnight lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Mainly VFR conds prevail this TAF cycle with thick cloud cover in the middle and upper levels. The only exception appears to be VLD where some lower stratus may sneak in from the SE later this morning. Higher confidence in MVFR stratus deck spreading from the east towards VLD between 0Z and 6Z tonight. East winds increase 10-12 kts (frequent gusts around 20 kts) today with potential for passing on/off -SHRA this aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected through this morning with winds near 20 knots for our offshore waters. A surface low will pass over our waters this weekend, increasing winds across most of the near shore waters as well for Saturday night through Monday. As the surface low departs, winds and seas are expected to diminish back to moderate breezes on Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 334 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Generally around an inch of rainfall is expected across the region over the next week, with isolated higher amounts likely along the coast this weekend as an area of low pressure moves across the eastern Gulf. There are currently no flooding concerns. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 67 78 64 / 10 20 40 40 Panama City 82 67 77 64 / 0 40 60 30 Dothan 81 64 74 61 / 10 20 50 40 Albany 80 63 75 60 / 10 0 30 40 Valdosta 81 65 78 63 / 10 10 40 40 Cross City 84 69 80 65 / 0 30 50 50 Apalachicola 78 68 75 66 / 0 40 60 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ752- 770-772-775. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for GMZ765. && $$ |
| #1284096 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:00 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 354 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington, for this afternoon`s high tide. No significant forecast changes with the latest update. Beach Hazard Statement issued for strong longshore current at east- facing beaches today. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. 2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. High pressure will build across the area today following an early morning cold front. Temperatures will drop to near-normal through early next week. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast this afternoon. Dry weather is expected through much of this week with high pressure in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. Precipitable water is expected to increase late this week as an upper low approaches the southeastern US. Southerly return flow could support an increase in rain chances. Forecast spread in regards to both upper level heights and precipitable water remains high in an amplifying pattern. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions. Gusty NE winds expected today as high pressure builds to our north. A brief period of LLWS is expected this morning, mainly before surface gusts materialize. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-256. && $$ |
| #1284095 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:36 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 329 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Moderate coastal flooding remains possible through at least Sunday. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be possible during times of high tide. - Dangerous marine and beach conditions are expected across the Atlantic coast. - Slight Risk (level 2/4) for heavy rain leading to isolated flash flooding Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Deep layer ridging covers the Southeast and much of the center of the country, with a shortwave over eastern TX and the Lower MS Valley. Ensembles generally bring the shortwave through the Southeast overnight tonight through Monday morning, and only gradually nudge the low-level ridge axis northeastward. Then, ridging briefly builds back over the Southeast before a stronger frontal system reaches and crosses through the Southeast mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 The continued strong easterly flow at the base of the low-level ridge will keep the coastal trough in place and allow for scattered showers to move inland today and tonight. While the probability of rainfall across south Florida is high, the scattered nature of the showers makes it difficult to pinpoint where and when a location may be impacted by a passing shower. The one thing hi-res guidance does agree on is that the highest probability of heavier rainfall is in the late night/early morning hours (within training bands) with mostly light to moderate showers during the daytime. Additionally, with the exception of any training, showers should be rather brief since the steady easterly flow is expected to keep showers moving quickly. The deep-layer forcing associated with the approaching shortwave is forecast to arrive late Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. The primary expectation is more widespread rainfall with the assist from the large-scale ascent and high PWATs. With the low-level easterly flow expected to continue (and the associated trough remaining in place), the pattern of west-east oriented bands of heavier precip will likely continue but be enhanced by the support aloft. For these reasons the WPC has outlooked much of the Florida east coast with a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Essentially this is a level 2/4 risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding potential. On average across South Florida, a reasonable worst case QPF would be on the order of 1.5-2", but wherever an W/E oriented band sets up, the reasonable worst case jumps closer to 3- 5". With those amounts likely to fall over the course of 1-3 hours, there would be a slight flash flooding risk. Since this risk runs through the overnight hours Sunday, into early Monday morning, WPC keeps the FL east coast under a Slight Risk in Monday`s outlook as well. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 For the first part of next week we return to a pattern consisting of ridging aloft and moderate easterly flow around the base of a low- level ridge. That means a return to scattered passing showers each day and night. The pattern will change a bit come mid-week when flow begins to veer ahead of a developing/approaching frontal system. There`s still quite a bit of uncertainty around the pre-frontal environment and how mesoscale features will affect storm distribution each day, but guidance is in fair agreement of a frontal passage some time on Friday. How strong and how far south the surface low will be, and what that means for the potential for an isolated severe storm or two, remains in question with quite a bit of model spread. Certainly something to keep an eye on once we get past this weekends heavy rain threat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible with passing showers along both coasts through the TAFs. Predictability is too low regarding timing and location of restrictions or showers to target higher probability areas with tempos or prob groups. Steady ENE winds will prevail overnight and become gusty tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase through the morning, with gusts reaching the 20-25 kt range, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft (by late tonight) along the Gulf stream. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the rest of the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers remain possible today, with more widespread rain chances late this weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Persistent and strong onshore flow will keep a high risk of rip currents in place for the foreseeable future. Additionally, the strengthening winds and building seas will result in surf heights reaching advisory levels by this afternoon along Palm Beach and Broward beaches. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Though we`re on the back side of the King Tide peak, water levels are struggling to fall below moderate stage during high tide cycles due to the persistent, and at times strong, onshore flow. There may be a brief window where we`re able to fall below moderate flood stage late Sunday through Monday, but once the easterly flow becomes established again early next week, guidance indicates the potential to flirt with moderate flood stage once again. We certainly won`t be dealing with the levels seen during the peak of the King Tides, but a prolonged period of at least minor impacts at high tide should be expected through much of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 76 82 74 / 60 60 90 80 West Kendall 86 76 84 74 / 60 50 90 80 Opa-Locka 85 75 83 73 / 50 60 80 80 Homestead 86 76 84 74 / 60 60 90 80 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 81 73 / 50 70 90 90 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 82 73 / 50 70 90 90 Pembroke Pines 85 75 84 73 / 50 60 90 80 West Palm Beach 84 75 82 72 / 40 50 70 80 Boca Raton 83 75 82 73 / 50 60 80 90 Naples 86 73 84 71 / 50 20 80 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168- 172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284094 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:30 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDSJU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Juan PR 319 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACH FORECAST... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 * Unsettled weather conditions are expected later today and tonight, so pack and umbrella if your are planning to go out for candy. Be prepared to look for shelter in case thunderstorms develop. * Heat indices above 100 degrees are expected to persist, with increasing temperature expected by mid-week. Take plenty of breaks when outdoors and stay hydrated. * Passing showers are expected for the Virgin Islands as well, but the risk of flooding is limited to none. && .Short Term(Today through Monday)... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 The night was quiet across the northeastern Caribbean. A few showers managed to reach portions of the Virgin Islands and southeastern Puerto Rico, but accumulations were not significant. Once again, temperatures cooled down to the low 80s and 70s for coastal areas, and in the 60s across the Cordillera Central. An upper level trough axis remains south of Hispaniola. This feature will pull moisture into the region today, causing increasing showers in the afternoon and evening hours. The area of above normal precipitable water is very evident in satellite imagery. Pack an umbrella if you are planning to collect candy tonight, and be ready to seek for shelter if you hear thunder. The first round of showers will be the usual afternoon convection developing in the interior and west-southwest, were there is a moderate risk of flooding, like almost every afternoon. Later tonight, showers will increase along coastal areas of southern and eastern Puerto Rico, and also in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands. To start November on Sunday, this trough will bring plenty of clouds into the area. The dynamic aloft is somewhat conducive for showers formation, but there is some dry air intrusion at the lower levels. Additionally, cloud coverage may reduce the amount of solar radiation received and hinder local effects. Regardless, due to the uncertainty that these troughs bring, the probability of precipitation was left at 60 to 70%, with a moderate risk of urban and small stream flooding. The reasoning is that even with strong cloud coverage, the trade winds will still carry showers and thunderstorms into the local area. There is a risk of frequent lightning as well with the thunderstorm activity. The temperature profile still indicate above normal values for this time of year. For today, the normal high is 88 and normal low is 76 at the San Juan Area climate site. Elevated heat indices, in those areas where the sun may peek, will cause issues for those very sensitive, especially when outdoors and without effective cooling or hydration. && .Long Term(Tuesday through Saturday)... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 A generally warm and humid weather pattern is expected across Puerto Rico during the long term period. Precipitable water values will remain relatively high, ranging between 1.9 and 2.3 inches, while low-level relative humidity (850 to 700 mb) will generally remain between 70% and 85%. Mid-level moisture (700 to 500 mb) also shows periods of increased humidity, mainly values in the 75th percentile based on climatology for the month of November. Notably, 925 mb temperatures are forecast to reach approximately two standard deviations above normal at the beginning of the period (particularly Tuesday and Wednesday), supporting warmer than normal conditions. If widespread cloud cover does not develop, these warm and humid conditions could promote stronger daytime heating and enhance afternoon convection. At the surface, light and variable winds are expected, particularly from Wednesday through Friday, resulting in very weak steering flow. This will allow locally developed showers to move slowly, increasing rainfall accumulations and the potential to observe flooding. Sea-breeze convergence, diurnal heating, and orographic lifting across the interior and western portions of Puerto Rico could further enhance shower development. Periods of heavy rainfall could lead to urban and small stream flooding and quick river rises. At the upper levels, no significant changes in the overall pattern are expected initially, although current global models show some disagreement regarding the long term evolution. An upper-level low, also reflected in the surface pattern and associated frontal boundary, is forecast to swing north of the region across the Atlantic waters. Toward the end of the week, its influence could promote a shift in low-level winds from the south, bringing additional tropical moisture into the region and maintaining a warm and humid environment. Meanwhile, 500 mb temperatures will remain near -5 to -6C, with generally moderate lapse rates suggesting some potential for atmospheric instability. Cloud cover will play an important role in afternoon convective development, as extensive cloudiness could limit surface heating and inhibit convection, while periods of sunshine would favor stronger daytime heating and enhance shower development. Overall, expect warm and humid conditions, variable cloud cover, and periods of showers, particularly across interior and western Puerto Rico. Given the weak steering flow and potential for slow-moving showers, locally heavy rainfall, increased rainfall accumulations, and flooding impacts will remain possible. Continue to monitor the forecast as confidence increases and updated become available. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. SHRA will increase after 17Z for the Cordillera Central, causing mountain obscuration. Periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings are expected for TJPS at times. SHRA will increase after 22Z for the Caribbean Sea and the USVI terminals. These showers could cause interruptions to operations. Winds are from the SE at 10 kts or less, shifting slightly from the NE after 15Z at 1-3 kft, remaining from the SE above 5 kft. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 Surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue to promote moderate east to southeasterly winds across the regional waters during the weekend. Seas will remain between 1 to 3 feet during the next few days, with ocasional higher seas near the heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Expect choppy conditions at times across portions of the offshore waters and local passage reducing visibility and generating gusty winds. && .BEACH FORECAST... Issued at 254 AM AST Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate risk of rip currents will continue during the next several days along the northern beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra, as well as the US Virgin Islands. This means life-threatening rip currents are possible in the surf zone. Beachgoers should remain cautious. Expect periods of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, particularly across northwestern and northern Puerto Rico. If you hear thunder, seek shelter immediately inside a sturdy building. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...None. VI...None. AM...None. && $$ |
| #1284092 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:18 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 313 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered light showers will move east to west across areas around I-4 southward this afternoon and evening. - Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Surface high pressure coupled with upper level ridging across Florida will keep conditions similar to yesterday. Enough moisture will be available to produce isolated to scattered showers throughout the day. Greatest chances will remain mostly south of I4 today. However, by Sunday, ridging aloft will break down as a mid level disturbance moves towards the area. Moisture increases Sunday as a stalled frontal boundary works northward over the peninsula. This will lead to more widespread coverage of showers through Sunday night into Monday. WPC has placed the entire region in a marginal risk (1 of 5) for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Localized urban flooding could be possible with heavy downpours, especially in typical troublesome areas. Beyond the rainfall potential, a tight pressure gradient remains in place, keeping conditions gusty. Early in the week high pressure will build back in with clearing skies and decreased rain chances. Temperatures will also creep back up to above normal through the week. However, some relief will arrive following a cold front that is expected to move through Thursday into Friday. Once the cold front moves through, slightly cooler and drier air will filter in as next weekend arrives. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Periods of low clouds drifting over terminals will lead to IFR/MVFR ceilings throughout the morning. More showers are expected to develop throughout the day and have the potential to bring less than VFR ceilings and visibilities to terminals as they pass through. Conditions are expected to clear overnight. However, abundant moisture lifting over the area Sunday will lead to numerous showers with intervals of below VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Gusty exercise caution to near advisory level northeast winds continue as the pressure gradient remains tight. Rain chances will increased through the weekend into Monday. High pressure will build back in early next week, and winds will finally diminish below any headlines. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 308 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal as relative humidity levels remain above critical values. Rain chances increase through the weekend into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 73 81 70 / 20 20 60 60 FMY 87 74 85 71 / 40 20 70 70 GIF 86 72 82 70 / 20 30 60 70 SRQ 86 73 82 69 / 20 20 60 70 BKV 86 71 82 67 / 10 20 60 60 SPG 83 73 79 70 / 20 20 60 70 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ |
| #1284091 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:12 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 257 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cooler post-frontal airmass and northeast flow will lead to a drop in temperatures over the weekend 2) Next chance of appreciable rain comes mid to late next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South. Marine: A cold front will bring a surge of northeasterly SCA winds and seas through this evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front has just cleared the Crystal Coast early this morning and will continue to push south of ENC through the day. In the wake of this front, a cooler northeast flow will support noticeably lower temperatures compared to what we saw yesterday. Over the weekend, highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Along the Outer Banks, highs may struggle to reach the mid-60s. Away from bodies of water, lows should fall into the 40s tonight thanks to a drier airmass and lighter winds. High pressure won`t be directly overhead, though, and there will be a lot of high clouds streaming through, which should prevent lows from getting as low as they otherwise could. The same probably holds true for Sunday night as well. KEY MESSAGE 2...An amplified upper level trough is forecast to move into the Central U.S. early next week, but that is where confidence begins to drop. By the middle to latter half of next week, medium range guidance varies drastically with the evolution of the upper trough as it shifts towards the Eastern U.S. Most guidance point towards at least a piece of the upper trough getting cutoff from the flow, but where that cutoff occurs, and if it occurs at all, is a big question mark. Meanwhile, for comparison, AI guidance suggests a more progressive and less amplified evolution of the trough as it reaches the East Coast, with less cutoff potential. While the upper level differences equate to much different sensible weather outcomes, the general theme appears to a pattern that favors a period of southerly flow with milder temperatures, increasing moisture, and the potential for showers and thunderstorms. The forecast is very much subject to change during this timeframe, though, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A cold front will continue to move south through all of ENC over the next few hours, and should be offshore by 09z/Saturday. A brief "thump" of gusty winds and LLWS impacts is expected along the front, and continuing for about 1-2 hours after the front has moved through. Winds may lower for a bit around sunrise, then become gusty again by mid-morning Saturday. Just ahead of the front, light winds and a moist boundary layer will support reduced VIS in MIFG. Once the front moves through, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. A drier airmass moving in should limit the MIFG/BR/FG risk Saturday night, despite weakening winds. Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the potential. && .MARINE... A cold front is moving through the central and southern waters early this morning. Behind the front, obs show winds have quickly increased to 15-25kt, and seas are at 3-4 ft and building. While the strongest winds are likely to accompany the front this morning, persistent, moderate northeast winds should lead to seas building to 4-7 ft for most coastal waters. The one exception is for the sheltered nearshore waters south of Cape Lookout where seas will top out in the 3-4 foot range. The gradient is forecast to relax some by Sunday. However, a re- tightening of the gradient may occur south of Ocracoke Inlet, and 25kt winds may last further into the weekend there than currently advertised. For now, the Small Craft Advisories remain unchanged, but some extension in time may be needed for those above-mentioned southern waters. Outlook: Northeast flow is expected to last through at least Tuesday, along with elevated seas. By the middle of next week, the pattern is forecast to begin changing, and this should eventually least to an east to southeast flow developing for a change. Guidance is mixed on whether or not a period of stronger east to southeast winds will develop or not mid next week. For now the forecast reflects sub-25kt winds mid to late next week, but the forecast is subject to change, so stay tuned. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1284090 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:00 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 249 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington, for this afternoon`s high tide. No significant forecast changes with the latest update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. 2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. High pressure will build across the area today following an early morning cold front. Temperatures will drop to near-normal through early next week. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast this afternoon. Dry weather is expected through much of this week with high pressure in place. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low. Precipitable water is expected to increase late this week as an upper low approaches the southeastern US. Southerly return flow could support an increase in rain chances. Forecast spread in regards to both upper level heights and precipitable water remains high in an amplifying pattern. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR conditions. Gusty NE winds expected today as high pressure builds to our north. A brief period of LLWS is expected this morning, mainly before surface gusts materialize. Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week. && .MARINE... Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-256. && $$ |
| #1284089 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:51 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 234 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All sections have been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Minor coastal flooding is possible expected along portions of the South Carolina coast early this afternoon. - 2) Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. - 3) Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the South Carolina coast early this afternoon. Northeast winds will strengthen along the SC coast around sunrise this morning. Gusty northeast winds should increase through the high tide cycle this morning into early this afternoon. As a result, tidal departures should gradually increase through mid-day. The astronomical tide within the Charleston Harbor will peak at 6.31 ft MLLW around 12:58 PM. Given the gusty northeast winds, water levels in Charleston Harbor may crest within minor flood stage early this afternoon. A Coastal Flood Advisory could be needed for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties. KEY MESSAGE 2: Continued risk for rip currents this weekend. Gusty northeast winds and building seas expected along all beaches of GA and SC today. A High Risk of rip currents will remain until 8 PM this evening. Reminder: The local rip current program will end later today, October 31 with the afternoon Surf Zone Forecast. KEY MESSAGE 3: Quiet conditions continue with somewhat unsettled weather possible Sunday into Monday. Today: Upper level ridging begins to degrade as a wedge of high pressure meanders along the northeast coast, setting up a coastal trough just offshore. As noted in the previous discussion, should see winds pick up through the afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected along the coast. Currently have gusts ranging between 25 to 30 mph, with isolated pockets up to 35 mph possible near Darien. Similar to yesterday, have highs warming into the upper 70s to low 80s. Mid to low-level moisture will also increase during this time, resulting in increased cloud cover through the afternoon. While largely dry conditions are forecast to prevail, can`t rule out seeing in isolated shower or two across McIntosh County. Lake Moultrie: A brief window of breezy winds may occur shortly after sunrise on Lake Moultrie, with gusts nearing 25 knots. Nonetheless, have opted to forgo a Lake Wind Advisory as confidence in strength and duration still remain low. Sunday: Breezy winds continue across the region, with highs a touch cooler in the mid 70s. Once again, should see dry conditions largely prevail, as the aforementioned coastal low keeps the precipitation shield offshore. In the event that showers do meander a touch inland, expect amounts to remain less than a quarter of an inch. Sunday Night Onward: The center of the surface high pressure to our north begins to shift out into the Atlantic, with the coastal trough remaining just offshore of our local waters. Combined with increasing low-level moisture and a weak slow moving shortwave, chances for light scattered showers will build across the region late Sunday night through Monday. Again, not expecting to see much in the way of significant rainfall. Rather, will likely only see a few hundredths to tenths at best. While a few showers may linger into Tuesday, overall confidence remains fairly low as model guidance begins to diverge with how the upper level pattern will evolve. So, will continue to monitor trends in the meantime. Otherwise, look for breezy northeast winds to persist, with highs in the mid 70s Monday rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 6Z TAFs: VFR. Cirrus will likely stream west to east across the terminals through the TAF period. The pressure gradient will increase across the region today, supporting gusty northeast winds, with gusts around 20 kts common during the daylight hours. Gusts should subside this evening, with steady northeast winds around 10 kts through the rest of the TAF period. Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeastly winds continue, with an increased risk for rain impacts Sunday into Monday. && .MARINE... Today through Tonight: A backdoor cold front will push south across the SC/GA marine zones this morning. In the wake of the front, a building ridge of sfc high pressure will yield gusty northeast winds, gusts generally between 25-30 kts. Some gusts into the low 30s are possible across the GA waters and lower SC waters this afternoon. Wave heights will begin the day between 3-6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft by early this evening. Wave heights may decrease by 1-2 ft overnight. Small Craft Advisories (SCA) will remain in effect for the Charleston Harbor, nearshore SC and GA waters, and outer GA waters today. The SCA for the CHS Harbor will end a 8 PM this evening, remaining outside the harbor due to gusty winds and elevated seas. Sunday through Wednesday: With high pressure lingering through mid- week, expect northeasterly winds to remain breezy during the day and gusty at night. This will keep wave heights in the 5 to 8 ft range into Wednesday, thus resulting in a prolonged period of SCAs. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362-364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384. && $$ |
| #1284087 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:45 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 236 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. 2) Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Clouds will increase on Sunday and Monday as a shortwave approaches and crosses the area, but no rain is expected. A cold front is well to our south early this morning, with NNE winds gusting to 20-25 mph near the coast in the wake of the front (and lighter winds inland). CAA is not particularly strong for the last day of October, but temps have fallen into the upper 40s-lower 60s and will fall to the mid 40s-lower 50s by sunrise. Cooler, dry, and pleasant today, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. High pressure builds over the area this evening through Sunday, which will allow for winds to diminish. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. Certainly no weather issues for those trick-or-treating. Lows Sunday morning drop into the upper 30s-mid 40s. A shortwave approaches on Sunday and crosses the area on Monday, which will allow for cloud cover to increase. However, due to the lack of low- level moisture, rain is not expected. It will turn slightly milder on Sunday and Monday, with a few 70F readings possible Monday afternoon across southern VA/NE NC. Cool again Monday morning with upper 30s-mid 40s in most areas. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures expected for the first few days of November. The gradual warming trend continues into mid next week, as an upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS while surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system is progged to develop in the Plains on Tuesday before approaching the Mid-Atlantic by late next week. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night and continue into Friday. However, there are lots of different solutions with respect to the track, strength, and timing of the system. So while some of the models do show widespread rainfall, others do not. Therefore, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low. Above average temperatures likely continue through the end of next week, with no potential freezes in the forecast as the more substantial cold air remains in the northern half of Canada for the foreseeable future. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. A surge of cooler and drier air has entered the area, with N-NNE wind speeds of 5-10 kt inland/10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt near the coast. Gusty winds persist today near the coast before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles over the area. SKC today with SCT high clouds moving over the area by late tonight. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week. && .MARINE... As of 235 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - Elevated NNE winds and seas continue this morning before subsiding later today. Sub-SCA conditions are expected into the first half of next week. Early morning surface analysis shows the cold front now south of our area settling in across NC and SC. High pressure is building in from the northwest ushering in a cooler airmass. This has allowed NNE winds to increase to 15-20kt with gusts up to 25-30kt along most of the local waters (minus the upper rivers). SCAs remain in effect for the Bay, lower James, and Currituck Sound for these elevated winds through 10am. Waves in the middle Bay are becoming 2-3ft with the lower and mouth of the Bay reaching 3-4ft. SCAs are also in effect for the coastal waters out to 20nm for seas expected to build to 5- 6ft over the next few hours. The SCAs will drop off for the waters north of Cape Charles early this afternoon as seas diminish a bit earlier than the southern zones, which drop off at 7pm. Winds and waves/seas will diminish through the afternoon. High pressure will persist overhead with winds remaining easterly around 10kt into early next week. Seas are forecast to be 2-4ft with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. Dry conditions will continue through mid-week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1284086 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:36 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 224 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend, includes: Coastal Flood Warning for localized Moderate Flooding along the middle St. Johns River and a Coastal Flood Advisory along the Atlantic Coast and lower St Johns River. - High Rip Current Risk and High Surf at all Area Beaches through Sunday. - Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flooding Possible Sunday Afternoon through Monday Evening, especially along the coast where focused rain bands may develop. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights: - Minor to locally Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns River basin, NE FL Atlantic Coast, and ICW - Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue Backdoor cold front is currently situated over North Carolina will continue making a southern push into the area through this morning, stalling and weakening almost directly across the area this evening and tonight. A "fresh" high pressure ridge will build down the southeastern seaboard in its wake throughout the day today, tightening the pressure gradient a bit and therefore enhancing the onshore flow once again. Ahead of the front, a diffuse band of showers currently streaming onshore the northeast FL coast is expected to pivot northward this morning, taking advantage of better lift and moisture ahead of the front. This will shift rain chances more so towards coastal I-10 corridor and northward, though a few showers will be possible across much of northeast FL overall with the continued onshore flow and the weakening frontal boundary stalling near northeast FL. Breezier overall over inland areas today, though only a few mph breezier on average for the coast and St. Johns River where the onshore flow has been persistent. This will keep up/reinforce coastal and beach hazards today and through Sunday, as a high risk for rip currents, elevated surf, and coastal flooding will persist. The good news is astronomical influence continues to subside this weekend, and therefore not expecting a significant increase in tidal flooding potential. Mostly minor flooding is forecast (around 1.5- 2ft above normal dry ground) at times of high tide, with moderate flooding (around or just over 2ft above dry ground) expected in portions of the St. Johns River near Putnam County. Tonight, scattered showers will persist at times, especially over north FL where the weak boundary settles. Lows will range from the low to mid 60s north to the low 70s south and east, after high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s for most this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Coastal flooding and surf hazards continue. - Heavy rain and localized flooding possible, especially along the coast Sunday night into Monday Despite the persistent onshore flow in place and coastal hazards continuing through Sunday and early next week, there will be wetter conditions during this period. The primary features will be a diffuse stationary front draped across central FL while an upper shortwave gradually lifts out of the eastern Gulf. Though the trough is trending slightly slower, compared to 24 hours ago, the associated with it is likely to induce a surface wave of low pressure along the stalled frontal zone. Taking the strong ascent, deeper moisture (PWATs up to 1.75"), and enhanced convergence, it`s likely that several bouts of heavy rain and coastal banding will develop through the late afternoon Sunday and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday, especially for the NE FL zones. While isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, especially toward the I-75 corridor, available buoyancy is expected to be marginal and be more conducive to heavy rain showers. Spread among guidance in terms of how much rain remains a bit wide, but reasonable expectations are around 2-3" with locally higher amounts. As of right now, WPC has an areawide "Marginal Risk" of excessive rainfall and focused "Slight Risk", highlight the heavy rain/flood potential Sunday into Monday. Heavier rainfall may continue along the coast throughout Monday as an inverted coastal trough develops in the wake of the passing wave of low pressure. Damp and overcast conditions will keep temperature readings in the upper 70s during the days with mild conditions in the 60s overnight. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm potential returns Thursday. - Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone conditions. Moist, local nor`easter conditions being to relent during the first half of next week as trough digs across the southern tier of the CONUS. As the system pushes toward the region steering flow will veer to the southeast helping to alleviate the tidal flooding with the St Johns River. There remains fair agreement among clustered ensembles, deterministic and AI models that the amplified upper trough will push a cold front in from the west around Thursday next week. Trends over the last 24 hours suggest the front may slow or stall across the southeast as the parent trough ejects to the northeast. While the potential for severe thunderstorms appears low, it can`t be ruled out entirely. Temperatures will initially warm amid the southeasterly flow but should cool slightly to seasonable readings with the front Friday and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... MVFR and IFR ceilings remain stubborn across the region early this morning. This trend is expected to continue through the morning hours except at SSI. Ceilings are expected to improve late morning and into the afternoon as winds also pick up with another surge of northeasterly winds. The good news is VFR is expected to prevail at this time later today and through this evening while this surge occurs. The other main factor through tonight and the rest of today will be SHRA potential, especially with a weakening front dropping southward today. At this time, only confident enough to include VCSH with the coverage expected, though TEMPO groups may be necessary for higher impacts overnight and through today, especially closer to the coast. && .MARINE... A strong high pressure ridge will build southward across area waters today behind a weakening cold front. This ridging will then wedge down the southeastern seaboard this weekend and early next week. A slight surge in northeasterly winds today will return hazards across the coastal waters once again for the weekend. A wavy stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the Florida peninsula late this weekend will return more numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local waters. High pressure will then build more northeast of the region towards mid week before another cold front approaches from the northwest. Rip Currents / High Surf: High rip current risk continues at all area beaches through this weekend as another surge of onshore flow arrives today. This will also return surf heights of up to 5 to 7 feet by this evening, and hence a High Surf Advisory will begin once again this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front will lead to strengthening northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast with gusts up to 30 mph. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible Sunday, primarily along the I-75 corridor with a passing wave of low pressure. Rain chances stick around through early next week, favoring the coast and I-95 corridor. Winds will begin to shift easterly next week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish. Otherwise, mild and humid conditions continue. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible across NE FL Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Relatively lower astronomical tides will allow for mostly minor coastal flooding along the coast, ICW and portions of the St Johns River through the weekend. Coastal Flood Warning only continues for eastern Putnam County at this time for areas along the St Johns River where localized peaks into moderate flood stage are still anticipated the next couple of high tide cycles. ENE winds increase again today, maintaining reverse flow/trapped tides in the St Johns river and continuing beach erosion along the Atlantic coast. Flood levels may rise back into moderate Sunday into early next week along the St Johns river. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 80 63 76 61 / 10 10 20 40 SSI 76 65 74 63 / 50 40 50 50 JAX 79 66 76 63 / 40 30 50 60 SGJ 79 70 77 66 / 30 30 50 70 GNV 83 69 79 65 / 10 20 50 50 OCF 84 70 80 66 / 10 20 50 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124- 125-132-138-225-233-325-333-633. High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333. Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ137. GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ470-472-474. && $$ |
| #1284085 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:27 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 116 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Rain chances increase this afternoon and evening, continuing into Sunday. Rain may impact trick-or-treating for some areas, especially west of I-65, with coverage increasing areawide overnight. Most areas can expect around 0.5-1 of rain, though isolated totals of 3-4 are possible. - A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents exists at all area beaches through early next week. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet by Sunday, with minor coastal flooding also possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A rather diffuse and complex pattern makes for a challenging Halloweekend forecast. At the surface, broad high pressure over the Northeast maintains an easterly to southeasterly flow across the area, bringing in Atlantic and Gulf moisture, especially along the coast and northwestward into Mississippi. Southwesterly flow persists aloft as the upper ridge shifts east and a weak shortwave trough approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Deep-layer moisture will increase as this shortwave approaches, with PWATs climbing to around 1.7 to 1.9 inches tonight, near the 95th percentile for late October. Rain chances will begin increasing as early as mid to late afternoon, initially favoring areas west of I-65. Southeast Mississippi could see numerous showers and storms develop during the late afternoon and early evening, potentially impacting trick-or-treating plans. Elsewhere, coverage should remain more isolated to scattered through the evening before increasing overnight into Sunday morning. PoPs of 60-70% are forecast areawide by Sunday morning. One concern with this setup is the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Opposing easterly low-level and westerly upper-level flow will result in weak mean- layer flow, generally 10 knots or less, so any deeper convection that develops could be slow-moving. Combined with anomalously high PWATs and a deep warm cloud layer, rainfall rates could be quite efficient. Most areas should see around 0.5-1 inch of rain, but isolated totals of 3-4 inches are possible where heavier showers or storms develop. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Confidence in the rainfall distribution remains low given the weak forcing. Latest HREF and REFS guidance continues to show a rather variable rainfall footprint, with isolated heavier bullseyes surrounded by areas receiving considerably less. While some locations could see significant rainfall, others may receive very little. Rain chances will gradually decrease Sunday afternoon as the disturbance shifts east. Widespread cloud cover and breezy easterly winds will persist, keeping temperatures cooler with highs in the low to mid 70s. Shortwave ridging and developing northwesterly flow aloft will then support dry conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. The main story heading into midweek will be a larger storm system expected to impact much of the central and eastern CONUS. A northern- stream trough will phase with a subtropical jet streak entering the southern Rockies, with the eventual evolution of the trough having important implications for our area. Depending on how the trough ejects from the central Plains early next week, there is some potential for severe weather across portions of the local area during the Tuesday night or Wednesday timeframe. A slower, more amplified solution involving a closed-off trough digging toward the Lower Mississippi Valley could promote surface low development farther south, enhancing low-level wind shear across the Southeast. Conversely, a faster and more progressive solution would keep the strongest dynamics farther north and away from the better instability, limiting the local severe threat. Model guidance remains inconsistent regarding the timing, strength, and placement of these features, so confidence remains low at this range. This is something we will continue to monitor over the coming days. A cold front will eventually move through the area, bringing a cooler and drier air mass for the remainder of the week. Overnight lows should fall well into the 40s late next week into next weekend, bringing a noticeable cooldown to the region. A High Risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches through at least Tuesday. In addition, surf heights are forecast to increase to around 4 to 6 feet by Sunday, and a High Surf Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday into Sunday night. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible around the early Sunday morning high tide. Trends will be monitored for a possible Coastal Flood Advisory. JGC/98 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly late afternoon into the night-time hours with best coverage west of the I-65 corridor. Temporary reductions in flight category are possible underneath heavier showers or storms. Winds will remain generally out of the east 5 to 10 knots during the day and less than 5 knots at night. Winds may be gusty at times during the day nearer the coast with gusts as high as 15 to 20 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon, becoming strong by tonight. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 8pm tonight through 8pm Monday. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 81 66 74 63 / 30 50 60 20 Pensacola 80 69 74 66 / 20 60 60 30 Destin 81 68 76 66 / 10 50 60 30 Evergreen 80 64 71 60 / 20 40 70 40 Waynesboro 81 64 72 60 / 60 70 60 20 Camden 75 63 68 59 / 20 50 60 40 Crestview 82 66 74 63 / 20 40 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Monday for GMZ650-655-670-675. && $$ |
| #1284084 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 205 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 158 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Hazardous boating conditions continue for the offshore waters tonight. Winds and seas will increase across most of the remainder of the area starting Saturday night through Monday. - Rain returns to the forecast this weekend with the highest chances on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week. - Unseasonably warm weather prevails for late October and early November. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Cloudy skies have been filtering in today as we kept the northeasterly flow this afternoon. Temperatures will still be on the warms side with highs tomorrow in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Passing light showers are possible for locations closer to the Emerald Coast for Saturday afternoon and evening. Trick-or-Treaters may want to have an umbrella just in case. Throughout the rest of the region, it will be warm and muggy. There may be some relief given that the winds will be around 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Halloween night may be a little spooky with the cloud cover. The winds won`t be howling, but there may be a few branches tapping your windows Saturday evening. The winds will die down through the night. Temperatures Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in the mid to upper 60s, well above average for this time of year. During the day on Sunday, an area of low pressure hugging the Gulf coast will track eastward, bringing rain and slight chance for thunderstorms to the region. The best rain chances will be along the coast up to the I-10 corridor. Areas north of the Florida state line will have about a 40% chance through the day. Due to the rain and cloud cover, high temperatures for Sunday will be a little cooler in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be a little more easterly at around 10-15 mph as the surface low passes further east over the peninsula into the Atlantic. The system will clear out during the day on Monday. There will be a lull in the weather as dry air filters in behind the Gulf low, with northeasterly winds prevailing. Temperatures will return to the low/mid 80s for afternoon highs, with overnight lows remaining in the 60s. We will be transitioning into a more active weather pattern as an upper level trough will approach the region by midweek, with an expectant cold front by Wednesday into Thursday. Upper level winds become southwesterly, increasing moisture ahead of the front. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase to around 40-60%. It is too soon to determine any further impacts at the moment, but we will provide updates as the system draws nearer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Mainly VFR conds prevail this TAF cycle with thick cloud cover in the middle and upper levels. The only exception appears to be VLD where some lower stratus may sneak in from the SE later this morning. Higher confidence in MVFR stratus deck spreading from the east towards VLD between 0Z and 6Z tonight. East winds increase 10-12 kts (frequent gusts around 20 kts) today with potential for passing on/off -SHRA this aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 748 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected tonight with winds near 20 knots for our offshore waters. A surface low will pass over our waters this weekend, increasing winds across most of the near shore waters as well for Saturday night through Monday. As the surface low departs, winds and seas are expected to diminish back to moderate breezes on Tuesday. A wind shift to southerly and southwesterly is forecast by midweek as another frontal system approaches, however significant impacts are not expected at the moment. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The main story for this weekend will be the chance for light rain showers and possible thunder for the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, especially for Sunday. The scattered showers are expected to be quick in forward progression, leading to a low chance for an actual wetting rain. Transport winds will be moderate at around 15-20 mph from the east through Monday. Dispersions will be fair to good during the afternoon hours each day through the period. Winds will return to northeasterly for the start of the work week. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 314 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Showers and thunderstorm chances increase for this weekend, and another round is expected by mid next week. The activity should be progressive, keeping rainfall totals on the low end. The WPC did, however, highlight portions of the FL Big Bend in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday. This is just a precaution. The area has pockets of abnormally dry to moderate drought, so should take the rainfall in stride. There are no flooding concerns for the next several days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 67 79 64 79 / 20 50 40 10 Panama City 68 77 64 78 / 40 60 30 0 Dothan 64 75 61 77 / 30 50 30 10 Albany 62 75 59 77 / 20 40 40 10 Valdosta 65 78 62 78 / 20 40 40 20 Cross City 69 80 65 80 / 30 50 50 40 Apalachicola 69 75 65 76 / 40 60 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening to 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ751-752-755. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ Monday for GMZ770- 772-775. && $$ |
| #1284083 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:18 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 - Dangerous beach conditions persist this weekend as easterly winds prolong rough surf. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from this evening through Sunday, and the risk of life-threatening rip currents remains high. Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains a threat at high tide today along the southern Treasure Coast. - There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the Space and Treasure Coasts today. By Sunday and Monday, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place along the coast. Through Monday, 1 to 3" of rain is forecast with a 5-10% chance of 5 inches or more. Turn Around, Don`t Drown when encountering a flooded road. - Boating conditions remain hazardous, particularly in the open Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 -----------Synoptic Overview----------- Mid-level ridging is parked atop the Sunshine State this morning. A broad area of above-normal H5 heights extends over the eastern half of the U.S. In the polar jet stream, a shortwave over New England is responsible for reinforcing a continental high-pressure system over the Great Lakes. In the West, a longwave trough axis sits just offshore of California. Additional shortwave energy, on the nose of the subtropical jet, is located over Texas. By Sunday evening, the surface high should move into the Mid-Atlantic, tightening the pressure gradient over Florida yet again. Meanwhile, the mid-level shortwave currently over Texas is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf and/or Florida. Guidance has continued to trend slower with the arrival of this feature. A surface reflection, most likely in the form of a weak trough, may attempt to form over the eastern Gulf by Sunday evening. Enhanced low-level moisture convergence is anticipated to coincide with a broad area of upper-level jet diffluence, especially from Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, total moisture (PWAT) is forecast to exceed the 90th percentile of climatology over Florida. This disturbance is forecast to weaken by Tuesday as it crawls eastward. By Wednesday night, cluster analysis of the 30/12Z ensemble suite shows another shortwave trough axis approaching the Mississippi Valley. With additional jet stream energy on its heels, guidance suggests this trough will begin to weaken as it reaches the Southeast U.S. on Thursday. This portends a rather unimpressive cold frontal passage for Florida sometime on Thursday. Somewhat drier air is still likely to reach the state once it passes. The subtropical jet is forecast to become quasi-zonal over the Southern U.S. late next week and into the following weekend. Global ensembles indicate a weak ridge developing near Florida, maintaining above-normal H85 (5 kft) temperatures. The next signal appears to be a southern stream trough entering the Desert Southwest next weekend. It is not expected to reach Florida until at least Monday the 9th. -------Sensible Weather & Impacts------- Today - Tonight... Unfortunately, high-res guidance has struggled with the pesky band of showers that has remained over portions of the Treasure Coast the last 12 hours or so. We expect that periodic showers will continue to stream off of the Atlantic, especially for areas south of Cape Canaveral today. Rain chances range from 10-30% northwest of I-4 to 50-60% from Melbourne southward. Lightning chances remain low (<25%). Showers that repeatedly affect the same areas may drop 1-3" on a very isolated basis, so we will continue to monitor trends for localized flooding. East-northeast winds increase a bit today as the gradient tightens up. Expect occasional gusts from 20-30 mph this afternoon. This will continue to generate rough surf and numerous, life-threatening rip currents at Atlantic beaches. A High Surf Advisory will go into effect at 5 PM today. Please refrain from entering the ocean. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is also expected with the midday high tide mainly from near St. Lucie Inlet and points southward into Martin County. Warm and muggy today with highs in the low/mid 80s. Sunday - Monday... As mentioned in the overview, several factors favor widespread coverage (60-80%) of showers with a few storms (20-30%). Sunday may not be a washout for all of the area, however, as the disturbance responsible for the active weather is moving in a bit slower. We anticipate the greatest areal coverage of rain sometime later Sunday through midday Monday. The influx of energy and moisture, combined with frictional convergence and some instability emerging off the Atlantic, favor the I-95 corridor for training bands of heavy rain. To make matters worse, much of the Treasure Coast is nearly saturated from recent rains. Through Monday night, most likely rainfall tallies of 1 to 3 inches are forecast for much of east central Florida, with a 5-10% chance of localized 5" or greater totals. Where these higher amounts fall in a shorter timeframe, flash flooding could result. Easterly winds will be strongest on Sunday, with gusts up to 30 mph. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect on Sunday at all Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Additionally, another round of minor coastal flooding is forecast south of St. Lucie Inlet with the early afternoon high tide cycle, especially on Sunday. The high risk of life-threatening rip currents will persist into early next week. Tuesday - Thursday... Onshore flow should steadily weaken through midweek, but above-normal moisture is forecast to remain in place. Shower chances will continue, with 30-40% coverage expected. Storm chances remain low, at 20% or less. A cold front is slated to get here sometime on Thursday or Thursday night, albeit on a weakening trend. A thin line of showers and isolated storms may accompany the boundary. Severe weather potential still looks quite limited. Remaining warm, with highs in the low/mid 80s. Friday - Next Weekend... There is some disagreement with how much dry air will be advected over Florida behind the cold front late this week, and appreciable cold advection should be stymied by progressive zonal flow. The favored scenario is a clean enough frontal passage for mostly dry, pleasant weather during this timeframe. Warm afternoons and somewhat cooler nights would prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 210 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 As continental high pressure drifts into the Northeast U.S. this weekend, the pressure gradient tightens again over Florida and the adjacent local Atlantic. Fresh easterly breezes and rough seas will result in hazardous boating conditions through at least Sunday night, with a slow improvement beginning Monday into Tuesday. A disturbance approaching from the Gulf is expected to spark numerous showers and isolated storms from Sunday into Monday. Small Craft Advisories continue for all but the nearshore Volusia waters this morning, but even that zone will go beneath the advisory by this afternoon. ENE winds 15-25 kts by this afternoon, lasting through Sunday. Seas building to 6-9 ft from this afternoon into Sunday as well. By Monday, seas slowly subside to 5-7 ft as E winds taper to 15-20 kt. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2106 On and off showers are forecast through the TAF period with ENE flow. TEMPO groups for IFR CIGs exist between 06Z-08Z/09Z at KLEE and KSUA, as well as between 17Z/18Z-21Z/22Z for MVFR CIGs at KMLB southwards. Expect ENE winds at 6-12kts with gusts up to 18kts to increase after 14Z with gusts up to 20kts-25kts before gradually weakening tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 73 80 70 / 10 20 60 70 MCO 84 72 80 70 / 30 40 70 70 MLB 83 74 81 71 / 50 50 70 80 VRB 84 74 83 72 / 60 50 80 80 LEE 84 71 80 69 / 10 30 60 70 SFB 83 72 81 71 / 20 30 70 70 ORL 84 73 80 71 / 20 30 70 70 FPR 84 75 82 72 / 60 50 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284082 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:03 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 102 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Trick-or-Treat weather will be a treat! Dry and temperatures in the 70s! - Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms. - Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Warm temperatures and dry conditions are expected through Monday. A potent low moving across the southern Great Plains will send a cold front through South Texas around Tuesday, though there is still disagreement on the timing and southern extent of the front. As things currently stand, it looks like rain chances will increase late Monday night into Tuesday, with a medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms along the Coastal Bend and northern Coastal Plains. The best dynamics continue to remain north of the area, but there could be an occasional strong to severe thunderstorm. We`ll continue to monitor the trends. Will have to continue to monitor the possibility for minor coastal flooding along Gulf facing beaches into the weekend, as well as an increased rip current risk. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Expecting IFR to LIFR conditions overnight due to fog and low CIGs. Ceilings and VSBYs will likely jump around during the first 6 hours or so of this TAF but will monitor and may make some amendments as necessary. Some improvement is forecast Saturday late morning with VFR conditions slowly returning by afternoon. Northeast to easterly winds will remain light and somewhat variable. && .MARINE... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through the weekend, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Generally dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower will be possible through today. Rain chances return early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Low-level moisture and light winds will continue to limit fire weather concerns. Another chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Monday night/Tuesday ahead of a cold front. Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 83 70 84 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 81 67 82 67 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 86 71 88 72 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 86 69 86 69 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 71 81 72 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 82 69 85 70 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 86 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 73 81 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284081 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 152 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A dry backdoor cold front will push through tonight bringing near normal temps with continued dry conditions over the weekend. 2) Next rain chance arrives by mid next week with a low pressure system moving out of the Deep South. Marine: The backdoor front will bring a surge of northerly SCA winds and seas tonight into Saturday evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions this afternoon with sunny skies and temps around 80 inland and 70s along the coast. A dry back door cold front will push through the region tonight bringing a cool down over the weekend with temps dropping to near normal and lows near to slightly above normal over the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pres ridge begins to break down by Wednesday as an amplified upper trough over the central CONUS approaches the region. The attendant sfc low lifts into the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday with a warm front currently progged to lift across ENC Thursday followed by the trailing cold front Thursday night. There is decent spread in QPF amounts among the models with this system but blend of models is currently showing around a quarter to three quarters of an inch, which won`t make much of an impact to ongoing drought conditions across the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecast confidence is high over the next 24 hours. A cold front will continue to move south through all of ENC over the next few hours, and should be offshore by 09z/Saturday. A brief "thump" of gusty winds and LLWS impacts is expected along the front, and continuing for about 1-2 hours after the front has moved through. Winds may lower for a bit around sunrise, then become gusty again by mid-morning Saturday. Just ahead of the front, light winds and a moist boundary layer will support reduced VIS in MIFG. Once the front moves through, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. A drier airmass moving in should limit the MIFG/BR/FG risk Saturday night, despite weakening winds. Outlook: The northeast flow across the area this weekend will transition to an easterly flow as we move into early next week. Increasing moisture within this flow appears supportive of low CIGs and the potential for BR/FG development (not unlike what was experienced the past few days locally). Some SHRA will be possible as well, especially for coastal terminals (KEWN, KMRH). Of note, confidence is lower regarding the potential for low CIGs and SHRA during this time, but it`s worth mentioning the potential. && .MARINE... Light winds across the waters this afternoon with seas around 3-5 ft. A backdoor cold front will push across the waters overnight with a NE surge 15-25 kt developing bringing SCA conditions across the coastal waters, with seas building to 4-8 ft. Added SCA for the sounds. Winds and seas diminish Sat night with the nearshore coastal waters expected to drop below SCA criteria. Outlook (Sun through Wed): Conditions gradually improve early next week, though next rounds of high seas as early as Tue with next system approaching from the S and W. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ203-205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131- 135-230-231. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154-156- 158. && $$ |
| #1284080 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1240 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Sunday. - Dry, hot conditions expected through Halloween weekend. - Cold front early next week will bring cooler temperatures and increased chances of rain near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Ridging over north-central Mexico will maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures remain warm for late October/early November, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s, gradually climbing each afternoon through Monday ahead of our next front. A closed low will dig into the Southern Plains early next week, delivering a cold front to deep South Texas on Election Day. Highs on Tuesday will depend on the fronts arrival time and how early CAA begins. Rain chances have consistently stayed low along the front for the CWA, with a line of showers and thunderstorms possibly clipping the northern Ranchlands and coast. Cooler, drier conditions return Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. At local beaches, persistent easterly flow and higher than usual tides will continue to contribute to elevated water levels and minor coastal flooding through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement will be extended through Sunday. Tide levels should begin decreasing early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light winds and mostly clear to partly cloudy rain-free skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and 5 to 7 second period swell will prevail through the weekend. Rain chances return Tuesday with a passing cold front. This front may bring Small Craft Caution conditions with moderate seas across the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 90 70 89 70 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 92 72 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 76 82 76 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 85 71 / 0 0 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ |
| #1284078 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - A High risk of rip currents goes into effect today through early next week. Surf heights may increase up to 4-6 feet by Sunday. - Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon/evening, lasting into Sunday. Few showers can be expected during trick or treating, with chances steadily increasing overnight. Heavier rain totals remain generally along the coast between 0.5 to 1", with locally higher amounts possible. - Moderate to strong easterly winds will create hazardous conditions for small craft through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Southwesterly flow aloft is expected to become established throughout the day today as an upper ridge pushes into the western Atlantic and a southern stream trough lifts out of Texas. As this occurs, deep-layer moisture will steadily increase over the next 24-36 hours. Although this will help to bring some increased cloud cover into the region today/tonight, subsidence from the nearby ridge will help to keep the area dry through tonight. Highs today will likely reach the upper 70s to low 80. Mild lows are expected tonight due to the increase in moisture, with lows only dropping into the low to mid 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast. The pattern begins to change by Saturday, and especially into Saturday night and Sunday as the aforementioned shortwave pushes across the Deep South. PWATs by Saturday evening look to increase to around 1.7-1.9 inches, which is generally around the 95th percentile for this time of year. This increase in moisture, paired with weak diffluence aloft and isentropic ascent overtop a cooler airmass (brought on by a Cold Air Damming regime), will result in an increase in rain chances for the weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop by as early as Saturday afternoon, particularly for areas west of I-65. Coverage increases to scattered to numerous and spreads eastward Saturday night into Sunday morning as the shortwave moves overhead. Not anticipating any severe weather due to very limited instability/poor lapse rates, and a rather unfavorable wind profile. As far as rainfall, general amounts are forecast to remain less than an inch, as rainfall intensities should be on the lighter side, given the overrunning nature of this system. That being said, 12z REFS 48hr PMMs do have a few isolated bulls-eyes approaching the 2-3 inch range. If a few embedded thunderstorms are able to develop, these locally higher rainfall amounts may become realized in some spots. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours as the shortwave pushes to our east. Shortwave ridging briefly builds in for the Sunday night through Tuesday morning time period, giving way to another brief period of dry conditions. The next big story comes midweek as a northern stream shortwave trough phases with a southern stream shortwave trough over the Rockies, evolving into a longwave trough which pushes eastwards throughout the week. As it moves into the central US, guidance continues to suggest that the trough will amplify and take on a more neutral or negative tilt as it lifts towards the Appalachians. This type of synoptic pattern would allow for a diffluent flow pattern aloft to spread across much of the southern US. At the surface, cyclogenesis appears likely over the Northern Plains by Monday. This low will push northeastward, eventually occluding into the Great Lakes region/southern Canada by midweek. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Appalachians should help to maintain the Cold Air Damming regime across the eastern US through at least Tuesday night. This high will eventually weaken and push to the east in response to an eastward-marching cold front associated with the occluding low. Further details are rather uncertain at this time due to continued model inconsistencies regarding speed, placement, and magnitude of these synoptic features. That being said, what we do know is that rain chances will likely increase for Tuesday night and into Wednesday as the cold front approaches and passes through the area. It should be noted that analog guidance does suggest that this type of pattern could support the threat for severe weather across portions of the southern US, so this is definitely something we will be watching closely over the coming days. After the passage of the front, a cooler and drier airmass filters into the area for the remainder of the week. A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues through tonight, becoming a High Risk for this weekend and into early next week. In addition, a High Surf Advisory will likely become necessary for Sunday into Sunday night as surf heights increase to 4-6 feet. /96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 VFR flight category prevails across the region through tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly late afternoon into the night-time hours with best coverage west of the I-65 corridor. Temporary reductions in flight category are possible underneath heavier showers or storms. Winds will remain generally out of the east 5 to 10 knots during the day and less than 5 knots at night. Winds may be gusty at times during the day nearer the coast with gusts as high as 15 to 20 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 A moderate easterly to northeasterly flow will continue through this morning. Winds will gradually increase this afternoon, becoming strong by tonight. Moderate to strong easterly flow is expected to continue through Tuesday, with winds gradually decreasing and turning onshore by mid-week. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect from 8pm tonight through 8pm Monday. Seas will build to 5-7 feet by Sunday and will gradually decrease throughout the upcoming week. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 80 67 76 63 / 20 40 60 20 Pensacola 80 68 76 66 / 20 40 60 30 Destin 81 68 76 66 / 20 40 60 30 Evergreen 80 65 72 60 / 20 30 50 10 Waynesboro 80 64 74 60 / 40 50 60 10 Camden 76 63 69 59 / 30 40 50 10 Crestview 82 66 76 61 / 20 30 60 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284077 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 131 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Hazardous conditions persist along the Atlantic coastline of Central Florida. Rough surf and numerous life-threatening rip currents are expected at beaches across the area through the weekend. Coastal flooding is still expected along portions of the Treasure Coast at high tide. - Greater coverage of rain and a few storms is likely (60-80%) on Sunday and Monday. 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast, with a 5-10% chance of exceeding 5 inches. Flash flooding is possible, especially where soils are already saturated. - Boating conditions also remain hazardous into the weekend as another surge of fresh easterly winds reaches the local Atlantic. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Current-Saturday... A pocket of deeper moisture (PWAT ~1.8-2.0") has supported persistent rounds of showers across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county today. Further north, coverage of showers has remained more isolated, still managing to reach areas far inland and west of the Orlando Metro at times. Most guidance points to a diminishing trend across areas north of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando Metro late this afternoon while rounds of at least isolated showers should generally persist along portions of the Treasure Coast into this evening and overnight. While not as breezy as recent days, wind gusts of 20-25 mph have been observed across portions of east central Florida today. The pressure gradient tightens on Saturday as high pressure further builds over the eastern U.S. Winds respond, with gusts increasing 25-30 mph at times into Saturday afternoon. The deepest moisture should generally persist across southern portions of the forecast area early this weekend with best chances for rounds of onshore moving showers (~40-60%) continuing mostly south of Cape Canaveral tomorrow. Lightning chances remain 20% or less, and strong storms are not expected. Cloudy skies continue with high temperatures ranging the low to mid 80s. Hazardous conditions persists at area beaches. A high risk of life threatening rip currents continues, and entering the water is not advised. While a period of high astronomical tides continue, P-ETTS guidance keeps Saturday morning`s high tide cycle below Minor flood stage, and the Coastal Flood Advisory has been allowed to expire from Indian River northward. However, will maintain the Coastal Flood Advisory to include Saturday afternoon`s high tide cycle along the St. Lucie and Martin coast as guidance at the Lake Worth Pier may suggest the potential for Moderate coastal flood impacts to continue. Sunday-Monday... Ridging aloft breaks down on Sunday as a mid level disturbance approaches and passes over central Florida. Moisture increases late in the weekend as a stalled surface boundary over south Florida begins to lift northward. Rain chances (60-80%) notably increase late in the day Sunday, continuing through the overnight and into Monday. Ensemble and probabilistic guidance has pointed to the potential for a heavy rainfall threat as rain chances increase, and multiple ensemble suites suggest average 24 hour precip totals exceeding 1-2 inches across much of east central Florida. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall exists areawide Sunday and Sunday night, and will continue to keep an eye on areas of southern Brevard and the Treasure Coast where soils remain saturated and locally higher QPF totals are currently modeled. Beyond the rainfall forecast, expect breezy and gusty onshore winds to persist on Sunday before slackening just a little on Monday. Increased cloudiness and precip will hold temperatures near seasonal values in the upper 70s and low 80s each day. Tuesday-Friday (previous)... Heavy rain potential abates beginning Tuesday, but 30-50% shower chances linger for the middle of the week as sufficient moisture remains in place. More intervals of sun should return, and winds become noticeably lighter by Wednesday. This will allow high temps to warm back into the low and mid 80s for the middle of the week. A cold front is forecast to reach Central Florida around Thursday. Indications are that the front will be weakening on approach, but it may squeeze out a band of showers and a few storms. Severe weather potential currently appears limited. Drier and perhaps slightly cooler air drifts toward the state behind the front on Friday. The less humid conditions should make for cooler nighttime conditions, but afternoons still look warm. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 High pressure builds over the eastern U.S. into the weekend, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the local waters. East- northeast winds mostly 15-20 kts through tonight will increase to 20- 25 kts through the day tomorrow, continuing through the weekend. Seas 6-8 ft may subside slightly overnight before building 7-9 ft Saturday and Sunday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the offshore waters as well as nearshore portions of Brevard and the Treasure Coast, expanding areawide Saturday afternoon. These hazardous boating conditions continue through the remainder of the weekend, slowly improving early next week. A disturbance arriving Sunday is forecast to increase coverage of showers and storms late this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 On and off showers are forecast through the TAF period with ENE flow. TEMPO groups for IFR CIGs exist between 06Z-08Z/09Z at KLEE and KSUA, as well as between 17Z/18Z-21Z/22Z for MVFR CIGs at KMLB southwards. Expect ENE winds at 6-12kts with gusts up to 18kts to increase after 14Z with gusts up to 20kts-25kts before gradually weakening tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 81 73 80 70 / 10 20 60 70 MCO 84 72 80 70 / 30 40 70 70 MLB 83 74 81 71 / 50 50 70 80 VRB 84 74 83 72 / 60 50 80 80 LEE 84 71 80 69 / 10 30 60 70 SFB 83 72 81 71 / 20 30 70 70 ORL 84 73 80 71 / 20 30 70 70 FPR 84 75 82 72 / 60 50 80 80 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ141-154-159-164-347-447-647-747. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ159-164. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ550. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Monday for AMZ552-555. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ570-572-575. && $$ |
| #1284076 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 119 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated discussion. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles through early Saturday, and remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River and the southern nearshore coastal waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. 2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November. && .DISCUSSION... As of 240 PM EDT Friday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week. Early afternoon wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes, ridging SE toward the local area. The well-advertised dry cold front drops across the region over the next few hours, with winds becoming N-NW behind the frontal passage. No real cold air advection just yet...allowing for one more warm day across the region. 18z Obs were well into the 70s over the area, with some readings in the lower 80s across the piedmont. CAA arrives tonight, with winds increasing and veering around the N then NNE tonight and overnight. Temps fall into the 40s in most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the flow off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. High pressure builds over the area tomorrow night through Sunday. Lows Sunday morning drop into the low-mid 40s by Sunday morning, with even cooler readings possible Monday morning. Turning slightly milder (upper 60s) on Sunday with some additional clouds Sunday morning ahead of an weakening shortwave approaching from the SW. KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November. The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday night into Monday despite the passage of the previously referenced shortwave. Despite considerable cloudiness, low-level moisture will be significantly lacking. Looking ahead, a gradual warming trend takes place early next week, as low amplitude upper ridging builds east across the region, as surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both days. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system potentially tracks from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 120 AM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions across area terminals look to persist through the 06z TAF period. A surge of cooler and drier air has entered the area, with N-NNE wind speeds of 5-10 kt inland/10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt near the coast. Gusty winds persist today near the coast before diminishing tonight as high pressure settles over the area. SKC today with SCT high clouds moving over the area by late tonight. Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. The next chance for rain comes late next week. && .MARINE... As of 305 PM EDT Friday... - A northerly wind surge brings Small Craft Advisory conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters tonight into Saturday morning. - Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the weekend into early next week with E-NE flow. Sub-SCA W-NW winds are in place across the waters this afternoon. There is a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, though it extends well SE into the most of the eastern CONUS. There is also a diffuse cold front that stretches from coastal New England into the OH/TN Valley. Winds should remain <10 kt through sunset today, before cold air advection behind that cold front brings a quick increase in northerly winds by later this evening. The current forecast has these winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, highest on the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of our Chesapeake Bay zones, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and all of the 0-20 nm coastal water zones. Note that these were expanded to include the zones N of Cape Charles with this afternoon update. Given the N-NNE wind direction, seas also quickly increase to 4-6 ft, highest in the southern waters and potentially up to 7 ft in the 20-60 offshore zones. Winds quickly diminish later Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, with seas slowly following. SCAs drop off mid-morning in the bay, sound, and lower James and in the afternoon for the ocean due to those lingering higher seas. High pressure builds southward into the area for the later half of the weekend into early next week. Sub-SCA E-NE winds will prevail during this time with 2-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves in the bay. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>634-639. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ |
| #1284075 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 124 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 122 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways along coastal areas will be likely. - High surf conditions expected for Palm Beach and Broward beaches, starting Saturday afternoon. - Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher amounts could lead to flooding. - Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Regional mid-lvl ridging will remain in place today, with pressure gradients across the area gradually increasing into the weekend. This will result in extended periods of gusty conditions along coastal locations, mainly across the Atlantic coast of SoFlo. Radar data through early this afternoon has shown very sparse showers streaming westward across the area, mainly north of interstate 75. A few late afternoon thunderstorms are possible, especially with the peak of daytime heating, but coverage will remain between isolated and scattered (20-40%). Saturday may see a surge in moisture advection from the Atlantic, with max POPs into the 60% range, mainly south of interstate 75. WPC latest outlook places the Atlantic metro areas under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for potential of isolated/localized flooding with the heaviest downpours. The ongoing hazard, coastal flooding, is expected to continue at least through Saturday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal products in effect. Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s, while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and mid-upper 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the area. DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track, while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the possible options. As a result of these slight guidance discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually tapering off from west to east on Monday night. Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of the forecast as we approach next week. Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along the coasts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible with passing showers along both coasts through the TAFs. Predictability is too low regarding timing and location of restrictions or showers to target higher probability areas with tempos or prob groups. Steady ENE winds will prevail overnight and become gusty tomorrow afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and through the weekend. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today. Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Coastal flooding remains likely along the Atlantic coastline during the high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic coastline, and a High Surf Advisory will begin Saturday afternoon for Palm Beach and Broward beaches. A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic coastline through Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 76 82 74 / 70 70 90 80 West Kendall 85 76 84 74 / 70 70 90 70 Opa-Locka 85 76 84 73 / 60 70 80 80 Homestead 86 76 84 75 / 60 70 90 80 Fort Lauderdale 83 75 82 73 / 60 80 90 90 N Ft Lauderdale 84 75 82 73 / 50 70 90 90 Pembroke Pines 85 75 84 73 / 60 70 90 80 West Palm Beach 84 75 82 72 / 30 60 80 90 Boca Raton 83 75 82 73 / 50 70 90 90 Naples 86 73 84 71 / 50 40 80 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168- 172-173. High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284074 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:33 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1228 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Wind speeds will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range mainly over open gulf waters keeping small craft headlines posted in addition this will help to create minor coastal flooding along sections of the Mississippi and Louisiana gulf coasts during high tide times each day through the weekend. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for locations expected to get minor coastal flooding. - Rain returns to the area today with the best chance of rain likely this afternoon through midday Sunday possibly impacting some Halloween Trick-or-Treating or gatherings. - Stronger system impacts the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain will begin during the day Tuesday impacting election day while strong to severe storms look possible Tuesday night through early Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Now through Tuesday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The coastal flood advisory will remain as each high tide cycle during this king tide is causing some minor innundation along sections of the coast. These tide levels should begin to lower below coastal flood limits by Tue or Wed. The mid and upper level "swirl" seen in WV imagery over coastal TX is what`s left of Vance from the eastPAC. This will help get some sh/ts going later today as the bulk of moisture moves through. This feature won`t overstay its welcome but it will cause some aggrevation with hit and miss sh/ts for Halloween around our area. There will be some lingering showers and maybe a storm or two but most of the moderate to heavy rain should be moving out Sunday. The cloud cover will stay behind and light showers will dot the map after Sunday as the cold front approaches causing a new draw of moisture feed, stealing from the departing system. The cold front is moving at a good pace through east TX by Tuesday. No severe storms are expected with the first of these two systems with the exception of the coastal waters, but the jury is still out on the cold front itself. The front should begin moving through the area Tuesday night. The main sfc low and short wave will be departing well to the north as it pulls NE bringing the best severe wx variables with it. This stretches the southern portion of the frontal axis causing it to weaken in the absence of any other low developing along the boundary. That is not to say there will be no strong/severe storms associated with it though. Numbers are moderate at best with CAPE values from 1k-1.5kj and 0-3SRH values at their highest are around 250. The problem is the highest of these values do not coincide. The highest CAPE values come in around 3p Tue while the highest SRH values come in as the front is passing late Tue night. The CAPE values are around 600j as the front is passing and this is the time with the best dynamic load. This leads us to the conclusion that there is the potential for a few strong/severe storms occurring, and the highest potential timing would be along the front as it moves through. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Friday night) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 The front will continue to pass through the region Wednesday morning before exiting stage east by afternoon. Behind the front, northerly surface flow takes over with CAA developing over the CWFA. Aloft the broad scale H5 troughing will continue downstream with only a subtle drop in temperatures given the Pacific origin of the airmass expected to spread into the region. That said, around or maybe slightly below average Max/Min Temps Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning. Overall, a dry trend is anticipated as the upper flow becomes a dry northwest and eventually zonal or more progressive flow going into late week and into next weekend. (Frye) && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 VFR conditions through much of today. Cigs drop to around 5000ft by afternoon as isolated showers and storms develop, then lower into MVFR by this evening and finally IFR by midnight for all terminals. PROB groups will be used for precip timing. Easterly winds will increase a bit, especially coastal terminals where some gusts of 15 to 20kts will be possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 A prevailing easterly wind will remain in place across the waters through this weekend and into early next week as a broad surface high pressure system sits to the north of the area. Winds will generally remain in the 10 to 15 knot range in the lakes, sounds, and bays through the weekend and into early next. However, the open Gulf waters will see slightly higher winds of 15 to 20 knots over this period, resulting in choppier seas of 3 to 6 feet. Small craft should exercise caution if venturing out into the open Gulf waters. This persistent east wind will also lead to some minor coastal flooding less than one foot above ground level for east facing shores through this weekend. There will be some passing showers and a few thunderstorms today and Sunday as a weak disturbance aloft passes through, but no significant impacts to maritime activities are expected from the weak thunderstorms that do develop. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ070-076- 078. GM...None. MS...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MSZ086-087. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284070 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 100 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. - High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Breezy and cool conditions expected for Halloween. A cooler day is expected today as the post-frontal air mass moves in. Aloft, 925 mb temperatures cool to around 0C and NW winds continue, yet weaken with high pressure building in. Highs on Halloween will only reach the 50s as a result. Skies clear, and winds falling to or near calm Halloween night will allow for radiational cooling, dropping lows to the 20s and low 30s for much of the region. As is normally the case, the coldest readings will be found across the far interior where lows fall to near 20 degrees. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure maintains quiet weather through at least Thursday with warmer than average highs in the 60s. High pressure will remain firmly in control of southern New England`s weather clear through at least mid to late week as this stretch of pleasant weather continues. A large high moving in from New York will initially move overhead on Sunday, replaced by another dropping south from Canada into Maine mid week. A weak trough will pass over the Canadian maritimes around Tuesday bringing the potential for some showers to northern New England but lack of moisture and dynamics over SNE will keep us dry. The next chance for a pattern change comes around late Thursday/Friday when a mid level trough may dig into the mid-Atlantic, but that is not a certainty at this point. EPS and GEFS ensembles paint a 70-90% chance of PWATS climbing above 1" Thursday-Saturday next week. Run to run variability shows less of a signal for QPF with the latest members showing probs of >0.5" of 24 hr QPF falling from 60-70% for the 12z runs to 30-50%. In the mean time, high pressure maintains a milder than average airmass overhead leading to comfortable highs in the 60s all week. Winds should be light until Friday when our passing low would bring a period of gusty winds. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 06z TAF Update: Tonight...High confidence. Today and Tonight...High confidence. VFR. NW to N winds around 10-13 kt with gusts in the low 20s kt range, with gusts easing in the afternoon. Winds then go light WNW and to calm overnight. Sunday...High confidence. VFR. NW winds shifting to the W at 5-10 kt. Low confidence in a sea breeze after 15z. KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: VFR. Breezy. Monday Night through Wednesday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through Saturday Night...High confidence. SCAs remain in effect through 18z this afternoon given NW winds gusting to 30 kt through tonight and seas to 5 ft into this morning for the outer waters. While winds gradually diminish through the day seas will generally be between 4-5 feet for the outer waters. Heading into this evening and overnight, winds and seas diminish; winds generally fall to 10 kt or less and seas decrease to around 2-3 ft. Tranquil conditions on Sunday with winds falling to 10-15 kt and 2-3 ft seas. Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/... Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ230>237-251-255-256. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254. && $$ |
| #1284069 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:48 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1139 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances expected through this afternoon as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through. - Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday. - The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Latest IR and water vapor satellite imagery shows the mid-level trough just over the region, which is gradually moving northeast. Deep low to mid-level moisture still persists, and as a result we continue to see intermittent light to moderate showers overnight. Deep moisture axis will continue to shift east-northeast today (Saturday) as the main upper trough lifts into the Lower MS Valley. The combination of deep moisture, subtle forcing still persisting aloft and daytime heating will lead to rain and storm chances through the day. Latest Hi-res guidance shows a less active forecast for today, showing only isolated to scattered showers and storms, not as widespread. The main focus will be for areas along and east of I-45 and adjacent Gulf waters. Most of this activity should taper off by late this afternoon/early evening, though some spotty rain will be possible north of I-10 through the night. Once the trough shifts east and forcing/dynamics aloft move out of the region, weak ridging aloft should support quieter conditions through at least Monday. Expect drier and warmer conditions on Sunday and Monday with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s. A longwave trough over the western CONUS will deepen as it tracks eastward across the Plains by Monday. As this trough deepens and amplifies over the central CONUS, it will drag a cold front southeastward across SE Texas by Tuesday. Latest guidance is coming with better agreement regarding the phasing and timing of this FROPA, bringing the front across our westernmost areas by Tuesday morning, and reaching the coast by Tuesday evening/night. A few showers and storms are possible ahead of the front (late Monday through Tuesday), with increasing chances along the boundary. At the moment, instability is limited, so severe weather potential is low but nonzero and impacts from localized heavy rainfall will strongly depend on the final progression of this system. For now, prepare for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. In the wake of the front, drier and cooler weather is expected with near- seasonal temperatures. JM && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Light showers linger over the area N of I-10 currently keeping the trend of light activity through the overnight due to increased moisture. In the early morning the signal for MVFR CIGS remains through the early afternoon. The afternoon can see another round of -SHRA, but timing and coverage continue to have decreased confidence so PROB30 for IAH and S remain. The early trick-or- treat hrs see winds relaxing and decreasing -SHRA chances. CMW && .MARINE... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight through at least early this afternoon. Elevated winds with gusts of 20 to 30+ kts and seas around 4ft can be expected near any strong thunderstorms. Showers and storms should diminish later today, resulting in light to occasionally moderate east to northeast winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Winds will transition to the east-southeast by Sunday, before moderate late Monday into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is progged to reach the coastal waters by Tuesday night/early Wednesday with moderate to strong offshore winds in its wake. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 80 65 84 / 50 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 67 80 68 83 / 50 40 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 70 79 71 79 / 90 30 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
| #1284067 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:00 AM 31.Oct.2026) AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1051 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 - Isolated minor coastal flooding is possible at local beaches near high tide through 7 AM Sunday. - Dry, hot conditions expected through Halloween weekend. - Cold front early next week will bring cooler temperatures and increased chances of rain near the coast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Ridging over north-central Mexico will maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures remain warm for late October/early November, with highs in the upper 80s to 90s, gradually climbing each afternoon through Monday ahead of our next front. A closed low will dig into the Southern Plains early next week, delivering a cold front to deep South Texas on Election Day. Highs on Tuesday will depend on the fronts arrival time and how early CAA begins. Rain chances have consistently stayed low along the front for the CWA, with a line of showers and thunderstorms possibly clipping the northern Ranchlands and coast. Cooler, drier conditions return Wednesday behind the front, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. At local beaches, persistent easterly flow and higher than usual tides will continue to contribute to elevated water levels and minor coastal flooding through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement will be extended through Sunday. Tide levels should begin decreasing early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period with winds becoming light and variable overnight, generally from the east-southeast. Clear skies and light winds may lead to shallow fog development between 10-15Z, but dew point depressions of 3+ degF preclude mention in TAF. Greatest likelihood would be at HRL (30% or less). && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and 5 to 7 second period swell will prevail through the weekend. Rain chances return Tuesday with a passing cold front. This front may bring Small Craft Caution conditions with moderate seas across the waters Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 88 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 69 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 72 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 70 92 71 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 82 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 85 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ |
