9:30 PM Udpate
The model fluke ealier was apparantly just that, the newest run of the GFDL is back in line with what it had earlier, crossing the Florida Peninsula over the weekend.

Folks along the west coast of Florida may want to begin thinking of preperations for the weekend, and those in the cone and along the coast must continue to watch it very closely and plan accordingly. Please listen and heed local officials and sources for the best information for your immediate area.

Original Update
Wilma is fluctuating in intensity, and is back down some this afternoon. Model projections are starting to get scattered again, led by the GFDL, which suggests a slower moving system and meandering near the Yucatan, never quite making it toward Florida. Most still remain, along with the offiical forecast, headed toward Florida. The 5PM Update from the National Hurricane Center will be interesting.

The complexity level of forecasting the system just went up tenfold because of the new run. We'll have to wait until later to determine. It is still quite possible that Wilma never gets as far north as expected. But as said earlier, until a definitive turn is made to the north no one in the cone should be letting their guard down.

The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run, or it may be the signal of a change. Time will tell.

More to come later.

Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

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Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page