MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:20 PM |
Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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3PM
Ivan is left of the NHC forecast a bit, and models are starting to trend more westward... again. It will be a long week folks.
2PM
Reports of heavy damage in the Cayman Islands as well as storm surge flooding.
Noon
Just in case you wanted a bit more dash of confusion, the global models have shifted a bit east around noon. I'll wait on the trends and the motion of the storm. And at the same time, the storm has wobbled left of the NHC's track a bit.
11AM
Tropical Storm watches are up for the Keys, the NHC track remains the same. Watch for the turn today, model guidance suggests it. Intensity forecasts are equally as problematic as the track.
There really isn't any overwhelming reason to doubt the NHC's track, although it hinges on a Northwestward turn later today.
Original Update
Hurricane Ivan this morning is Southwest of the Cayman islands, again going south of and west of the forecast track from yesterday. The slower motion also adds uncertainty, and pushes out the possible timeline. Assuming it does turn north, we’d be looking for a US landfall Wednesday night or Thursday.
Ivan is still sneaking westward now, and the slower and further west it goes the more of a monkey wrench it throws into the 5 day forecast. It already has thrown it off a bit. The cone of error due to it’s slow movement is huge. It’s possible for the storm to get very close to the Yucatan now before it might make its northward turn (if at all).
We’ll be looking for gains in latitude today, for the future track of Ivan. It’s persistently been left of the track so far, and the trend may continue. However, once it does make a northward turn it could head back east some, so the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. Ivan is being a pain and I can almost guarantee a few more surprises before it’s over with. Look for movement northward to begin before the day is over with, and if it does not, all bets are off.
Large storms on this scale (strong Category 5ish) tend to do what they want at these latitudes – “ignoring” climatology, so it’s not too surprising that the forecasts have been off. It’s great news for Grand Cayman. But the slower the forward motion the more uncertainty where it will go. Today, the future track of Ivan is still shaky at best. But the most likely landfall remains the Florida Panhandle, but the confidence in that is so low at the moment, it’s hardly worth mentioning.
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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib Reports from the Cayman Islands
Cuban Radar Images
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
Disaster Relief Information
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:49 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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This is great news for the Caymans as I wake up this morning. Hopefully this damage will be minimal for a storm of this power and distance to them.
Strangely enough, I think the current weakening due to an eye wall replacement cycle may have happened at the worst time for the Caymans. The latest vortex message reports a 70 mile (60 NM) diamater secondary eye wall with the max winds on that, I think you can even see it in the sat photo on the intro post. This would put the Caymans in the worst part of the hurricane right now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:50 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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I noticed on wv images dry air north of ivan,is this caused by him sucking up all the moisture?Also I thought women where the most hard to predict.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Ivan should start it's northward turn very soon, the good thing is that since the storm has grown in size, much more shear will be affecting it then opposed to a small storm. Hopefully it will get torn to pieces but that's not that likely, I wonder what the recon is going to report.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Seems everyone is uncertain about Ivan's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...
"Millions more people are in its path, with Ivan projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."
I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...
thoughts???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 02:56 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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TheTpc says weak steering currents inlong term,tells me they have no idea what will happen once its enters gulf?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:00 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Of course it is. We have bought all the plywood and generators available and the tourists may leave next so sure, Florida is in the clear. I am afraid I am getting very cynical
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:00 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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I don't know where they got that South Florida was going to be hit, even though the NHC says it's going to the panhandle. It's not like AOL has there own TPC, or do they!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:02 PM |
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Track
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...and since they don't have a whole lot of confidence than that is why they are not moving the track even though they say it is because everything is on schedule. No since in moving the track if you don't know where to move it to; best just to leave it as is.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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the latesy hasnt changed much!
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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tend to agree with you on that.. if this happens it should turn north, if not it stays west. been waiting on that northern turn for a few days now. i don't think they expected it to slow down either. personally not to wish bad luck on someone else but i hope it keeps going west and never makes that northern turn. i think a few others have done the same but a few have made that turn. so we still don't know
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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No one is in the clear until Ivan is permenantly on land. I have seen storms in the past do strange things like go in cirlces, go backwards, then forward. Hurricanes are just plain unpredictalbe creatures.
Quote:
Seems everyone is uncertain about Ivan's future...I just read this in AOL's headline news...
"Millions more people are in its path, with Ivan projected to go between the Cayman Islands, make a direct hit on Cuba and then either move into the Gulf of Mexico or hit South Florida."
I was thinking that south Florida was pretty much in the clear...
thoughts???
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Well, AOL is usually the first place I go for my tropical information. Then if still in doubt I come to this board.
AOL ??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:05 PM |
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ivan heading for the yucatan?
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someone warn them fast
watching sats
whole set up is so e/w here its beyond words yet we are still expecting a move to the north
yesterday there was a weakness in the ridge to the north of ivan, he didnt bite..
hard to believe he is going to climb
see the front but its a dry one so far and storms like wet warm water... wet big trofs racing down..
not sure this isnt going into the yucatan..
you be the judge
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:05 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Well here on the island I am packing, just in case. Happy to think that it may go farther west than yesterday's track (no offense meant to all west of me).
The uncertainty is maddening.... but we're packing anyway to be on the safe side.
No hotels seem to be available in Tallahassee to Jacksonville; Dothan and points south either.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:07 PM |
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Re: Track
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I wish I was in the keys today nopeople.No Storm!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:08 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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my thoughts too! well see.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:14 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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We've got hotel rooms in Naples, where I am nervous but optimistic. At least, I think I am optimistic?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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The TPC is the experts,the last time I listened to an expert I lost money in the stock marketGo figure!.
| jamserve |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:16 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm
Here's an interesting link to current wx in the Cayman's. Check out the rain rate.
J
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:22 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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I've got to be reading this wrong. 15 in/hr?
Quote:
[url=http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm]
http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm[/url]
Here's an interesting link to current wx in the Cayman's. Check out the rain rate.
J
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:23 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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I dunno Bobbi....looking at that loop in the link you provided, I see nothing but SW to NE flow all across the Gulf....all the way from the Bay of Campeche through Florida. The flow directly in front of Ivan,...up to the Cuban coast, does still flow East to West ala the ridge. However, that 2nd trough is diving down quite rapidly and is now to the Gulf around LA and Texas. I still see the first trough pushing eastward off the Carolina coast. I am starting to think that there is an increasing prospect of a NE turn once Ivan reaches the Gulf. As some ppl have mentioned, the models are even starting to show a NE hook, although they tend to turn the storm after landfall. Let's watch the future model runs. I would not be surprised to see some earlier NE turns showing up. I believe that ridge might start to relenquish its grip on Ivan.
--Lou
| jamserve |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:24 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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yeah, that and the 72" total for the day...
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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I read a post on storm2k that the rainfall amounts being reported on Grand cayman were in tenths of an inch..thus 72 inches would actually be 7.2 inches reported thus far...a much more reasonable amount.
--Lou
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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15 in/hr is a legit reading. It is based on if the rain was still falling at the current rate. That rate is never maintained for more then a few min, though. Considering that the system appears to have been lost at that time, it looks like the eyewall was approaching. I am guessing the station lost power. Looks very similar to the pattern I had with Charley. Granted, no where near the force in Charley as is Ivan.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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that's a bunch 'o rain!!!...hard to fathom...
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:27 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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That is unreal says rain today 72.74in
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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http://www.weatherincayman.com/
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:32 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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The total rain looks to be a system that does not report rain as the software expects. Rain rate is normally dynamic. Looks like the rain counts have not been reset for this system. Can't by the tenths of an inch argument. There is not a rain gage that would report down to a ten thousandths of an inch like that report would be showing.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:33 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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Lou,
I have been watching those loops all morning and have come to the same conclusion. I cannot see where they have it going more west with the current flow as it is.
MaryAnn
Quote:
I dunno Bobbi....looking at that loop in the link you provided, I see nothing but SW to NE flow all across the Gulf....all the way from the Bay of Campeche through Florida. The flow directly in front of Ivan,...up to the Cuban coast, does still flow East to West ala the ridge.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:35 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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That sounds more probable/realistic.
Quote:
I read a post on storm2k that the rainfall amounts being reported on Grand cayman were in tenths of an inch..thus 72 inches would actually be 7.2 inches reported thus far...a much more reasonable amount.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:37 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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URNT12 KNHC 121439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1439Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
81 DEG 33 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2411 M
D. 080 KT
E. 323 DEG 045 NM
F. 069 DEG 131 KT
G. 326 DEG 025 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 9 C/ 3031 M
J. 17 C/ 3032 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-50
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.
;
ShawnS
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:38 PM |
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Re: The Trof
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The Trof looks weak and flat .Ivan for the last few frames trending WNW again after some NW movement.Ivan has missed the last two pieces of realestate thus far not without consequences for the inhabitants though.Ivan looks to be heading for the YUC gap that will make the turn happen at 85' to 89' alot of area yea but he has had a nice steady speed thus far.It's been mention that the 500mb associated with trof is weak as it passes N of Ivan.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:39 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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does anyone have a site that i could get what the actual storm surge during opal was? have plan a going but got to have a plan b just in case
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:44 PM |
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Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
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http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9502/tr9502.pdf
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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I still don't think the peninsula, even southwest are in the clear yet. The clouds and breeze in my area (central inland Florida) are "different", just like before Charley and Frances, but not typical of a normal average day.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:47 PM |
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The Turn?
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This turn is no sure thing by any means. I know that everything points to Ivan being effected by the trough but I would place it at a 50/50 right now. If the trof is weak I say the chances are <50 for a northerly turn.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:48 PM |
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Re: The Turn?
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shawn we get it, but its not going to houston.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:50 PM |
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By the way...
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for those interested in all the wobbles it looks like it has made another one back to the west, again.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 03:53 PM |
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O/T but weather related question
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This site is amazing I have been following it for some time. I have a question if someone could be so kind as to answer. I am suppose to fly in to Orlando on Wed. Does anyone see this as a problem, is Ivan heading that way at all that anyone can see.
Thanks everyone
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:01 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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Ivan is currently restructuring itself which is likely why it looks like it is wobbling west. This process should complete over the next few hours, and I would expect more of a shift after that. The current averaged motion of 300 deg. is only 15 deg. from true NW, so that is not much of a change. Here are 2 links of interest, the first has some nice graphics, the second is a water vapor sat pic which shows the strong trough digging in the central plains.
http://midatlanticwx.com/hw3/hw3.php?con...&hwvmetric=
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browse3.html
There is probably a better site that will put it in motion, but I haven't found it yet. The site I was using showed pics a hour or 2 old.
Here's a site with animation, although not many frames:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
edited to fix link
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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I was able to put into motion the last link with 5 hours of data, and the trough is digging well, now to the Texas, La. coast. The new GFS is continuing its trend of closing off a weak ULL over New England which is acting as a magnet to which it draws up the storm. This "should" be at 315 deg. or more within the next 12 hours in my opinion. This trough is looking like it is increasing its amplitude, as the ridge line builds north into Wyoming, forcing the base of the trough further south. This appears to be digging, not lifting out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:09 PM |
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Scott
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Where have you been? I've said all along, and this is the last time I will say it, that it is NOT coming to Texas and I don't want it to anyway. Does this satisfy you now?
I'm just pointing out the chance of Ivan doing his own thing and still putting everyone along the whole gulf coast at risk. I'm just watching out for everyone.
ShawnS
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:10 PM |
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Re: The Turn?
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The reason why I bring it Shawn is that Ivan has dodged alot of the land.I think that is why we might be seeing the stairstep now.Ivan goes little N feels the land persay then back WNW.Once is thru the YUC there is no land for a long ways.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:11 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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The arrival of the jet stream will cause the trough to strenghten, so this will have some affects on Ivan. That link really depicts the trough very well, also the ridge. Excellent work MrSpock.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:12 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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Forgive me here, but what will this mean for Ivan-is the start of the N turn? Wish we knew where he'd end up. Tired of eating storm food, but also tired of losing the real food with power outages. I'm becoming delirious here, trying to plan the grocery shopping. Forgive me again...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:12 PM |
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Re: The Turn?
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Be interesting to hear your input on where this suckers going! been waiting since friday. did I miss it?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:18 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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Thank you, now Ivan needs to cooperate.......the strength of that trough could also increase the shear on the system. So far, it has nine lives though.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:19 PM |
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Ivan and Texas
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Shoot, I don't even have renter's insurance and don't plan on getting it right now. Does that tell you how confident I am that Ivan will not make a trip to Texas...LOL!
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:22 PM |
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Re: The Turn?
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I've busted on scott for the lack of a forecast, but I'll defend him now...He has posted several times with approximations...I don't think ANYONE has a handle on this right now...he doesn't want to make a forecast until 72 hours from US landfall...but we are approaching that time now.
This looks to be a panhandle strike Wednesday afternoon, and I'm hoping (praying) it's as a CAT II, but it depends upon way too many things ATTM.
Ivan's pressure is up to 921mb and he's going thru yet another ERC. Still hasn't decided if he wants to make that northward turn, but all model guidance suggests it.
BTW, y'all in MS don't wanna know what the ETA is progging. I'll just say that the year the Miracle Mets won the WS there was a storm of note...
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:22 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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The sat pics show well the trough that is EXPECTED to cause the shift in track, but since there is little data in storms of this magnitude and size, forecasting those turns becomes much more difficult, a la Gilbert. That trough is the one that has received a lot of mention from the various forecasters and those of us on this board. I wish I could nail it down, but don't feel confident trying to. I'll leave that to the NHC and the mets on here. The key is, if this is to turn, the reason is on that pic, and the other sat pics don't show that nearly as well as does the water vapor loop.
It would be nice if wherever this hits, there could be a strong consensus soon, so that anyone in the path can have the proper time to prepare. I think that is one of the more frustrating things.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:23 PM |
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Re: By the way...
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ive got enough food at my house to last for a year from all these canes. Im ready to have my husband take all the steel off the windows, I am living in a dungeon! The property is still full of branches and moss. figured we would wait till round 2 to get everything tidy again.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:23 PM |
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Re: Ivan and Texas
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In all likely hood, Ivan will have the least chance of hitting Texas. See as Sept rolls around, the westerly flow starts to resume or become more noticiable, so once the hurricane gets to say the latitude of about south florida, it should start to move eastward and increase in foward speed.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:23 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Quote:
The total rain looks to be a system that does not report rain as the software expects. Rain rate is normally dynamic. Looks like the rain counts have not been reset for this system. Can't by the tenths of an inch argument. There is not a rain gage that would report down to a ten thousandths of an inch like that report would be showing.
Could the 72"" of rain actually be 6' of sea water?
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: Ivan and Texas
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huh???
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:28 PM |
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Re: Ivan and Texas
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>>> so once the hurricane gets to say the latitude of about south florida, it should start to move westward and increase in foward speed.
Don't you mean eastward?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:29 PM |
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Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
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Maybe the software doesn't account for tropical rainfall, aren't the droplets larger? Anyway, Ivan's pressure has risen somewhat showing signs of another eyewall replacement, this one is going to bring it below 900 mb.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:30 PM |
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Re: Ivan and Texas
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Yep, that's what I mean. I was thinking of the wind blowing from the west.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:34 PM |
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Re: The Turn?
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I gotta run,, but even though i been hyping over the impulse droping down from the southern plains and gulf coast,, Im going to go out on a limb and say landfall will be near Biloxi, Ms. I would advise people within 100 miles of there to take preperations as needed. Category 3 hurricane should arrive by weds. I was off on the 25N and 84W but that was posted before the Jamaica interaction and kept it westerly underdoing the more se flow just n of the system now. If Im off by more then 100 miles of landpoint from this 3 day forcast I will really try to look hard at why this was. Still everyone From LA to Panama City should keep a eye on the impact of the trough coming down to see how much of a turn and when this storm will make. Gotta go.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:35 PM |
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Re: Ivan and Texas
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werent you a shark last night? I liked the shark...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
You like the shark, I got to make up my mind LOL. Sorry guys don't want to change the topic.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:40 PM |
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
URNT12 KNHC 121602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/15:05:00Z
B. 18 deg 56 min N
081 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2429 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 059 deg 130 kt
G. 329 deg 028 nm
H. 922 mb
I. 6 C/ 3356 m
J. 17 C/ 3346 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO15-40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 WXWXA 040912IVAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 14:55:10 Z
INNER EYE RAGGED
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:43 PM |
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
is ivan starting to fall apart?
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:44 PM |
|
|
Re: ivan heading for the yucatan?
|
That link is INCREDIBLE. Let's my poor undereducated mind see and understand all the ridges and trofs you pro's have been talking about. It takes a while to load if you have dial up but well worth the wait. Many thanks.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
Unfortunately not. He's going through another ERC ATTM and when's he's completed that, watch the pressure drop again. I think he's gonna take a run at<900mb before all is said and done...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:46 PM |
URL for models
|
sorry for being lame
but what is the URL that shows the models in motion?
I know there is something on an FSU site but I cant remember it
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:47 PM |
|
UpDownLeftRight
|
Maybe, maybe not, either way, it has alot of water and time to get's it act together to hit anything from Texas to Key West.
After the last two, I still can't believe people are still acting like "Should I stay or should I go?" GO for god sake, this thing isn't HUMAN.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
I wonder if scottsvb1 will pan out this time? I must say hes been pretty accurate previously with them. Only time will tell..
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:49 PM |
|
Re: URL for models
|
Here's the one I use, and it is timely:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:51 PM |
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
thanks a lot, pal. That's not what I wanted to hear.
The inlaws are headed to PCB to board up their house and remove their most important things. My husband and brother in law might leave tonight to help them. (The have about a zillion windows on their house)
Bettye......LOL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:52 PM |
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
don't look like it.....two things could be fixing to happen. one...the current eyewall replacement is going on and inner eyewall is about to collaspe and could bring back a bigger still storm this aftternoon...one wall is at 15m wide....while other is a 30m....the stronger one....so cat 5 again and higher winds...and very low pressure...maybe around 900mb....is possible now....... and # two...he's about to start a more north movement...
speaking of recon.....new one
URNT12 KNHC 121620
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1620Z
B. 19 DEG 01 MIN N
81 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2408 M
D. 080 KT
E. 217 DEG 012 NM
F. 132 DEG 122 KT
G. 045 DEG 027 NM
H. 922 MB
I. 9 C/ 3056 M
J. 16 C/ 3048 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15-30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF866 2409A IVAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 131 KT NW QUAD 1428Z.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:54 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Where is CB?
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:55 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
sorry...PCB
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:56 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Panama City Beach
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:56 PM |
|
Re: Ivan and Texas
|
note**
betwn vortex.....second eyewall went from 40 to 30 in a 1hr and 20min?
hmm....am i reading this right....
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:57 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
and speaking of PCB, is anyone on now there? If so, have they started cleaning up the strip from all of the construction, yet?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 04:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
JK, Coop & Andy1Tom all seem to be offline now. Don't know if any other board members are from PCB...shout out if you are
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:00 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I'm sure the three of them are just a tad busy right now.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:01 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
All that is still going on as far as I know. I plan to ride out there later on. A few places in Panama City have begun to board up.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:02 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Oh, MikeC, I just sent you some cash via paypal.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:03 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
actually in pcb right now....panic is setting in....lines at home depot this morning were long! and gas stations are picking up.... bay county e.o.c...(pcb) will hold meeting at 4cdt to determine course of action...as for strip....lots of constrc. equip...and junk still out....there is about 10-15 condos still at or near halfway built
tower cam on right
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:04 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
It will take them a week just to secure the high rise buildings, let alone pick up the debris. I wonder what a screw feels like when it's flying at you at 130mph.....?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:07 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I have a house on Cape San Blas (located between Mexico Beach and Apalachicola) My management company called today and said they are starting to board up houses and wanted to know if they should include mine. We went ahead and told them yes, afraid we couldn't get it done if we waited.
So here I am on the net looking for any signs that Ivan is changing his mind about his intended path.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:29 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Ok, ya'll I'll check in with you later. I've got to take my 5 yr old to a birthday party.
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:34 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
A screw feels like when it's flying at you at 130mph would be like a bullet out of a machine gun I would think.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:34 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Mike C.............I am sending a small gift soon too for your site's use........a little extra cash.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:34 PM |
|
|
Re: Eyewall
|
If you slow down the loop, you can see in the last few frames the eyewall tightening up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
The concentric one, that is.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:37 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Today its seems as quite a few people around this area, Pensacola/Gulf Breeze are preparing. Gas lines are getting longer and longer. Im gonna go out later and see how crowded it gets at the Lowes and Walmart then head out to the beach and see whats happening. Ivan is heading on a generally WNW track with wobbles due west, and wobbles north. Models are everywhere from Western LA to Panama City. So Im not gonna make a landfall guess as of now, but Im thinking between SE LA, to Panama City. If track stays the same and there arent anymore curve balls thrown, my family will probably make some plans to get out tomorrow. Not going far though, just inland away from the water. Have a good day ya'll.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:38 PM |
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
speaking of birthdays...one year ago today we were tracking another Cat 5 storm which began with the letter I...Isabel...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:47 PM |
|
Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle
|
Scott's forecast on BIloxi is interesting to say the least... he's been pretty accurate in the past but this time I think he's wrong on where the eye will make landfall, however, it very well could be within 100 miles of BIloxi... as several models indicate.... as least he made a prediction.... come right or wrong...
I posted on Monday almost a week ago I thought Mobile and 25 miles to the east... I'm sticking with it.... that would still be within Scott's 100 mile projected range....
He nails BIloxi with this one and it will be quite a forecast, not to mention how pissed off I'll be having to deal with a major cane... as long as its to the east of me I'm fine....
Still don't think it will be more than a Cat 3 storm.... that's still a problem for whomever gets it....regardless my preps are complete except hanging plywood...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:48 PM |
|
|
Models
|
Several of the models are forecasting a late Wednesday in the Panhandle, but three days ago several models had the storm over the Keys and Lake Okeechobee by now
The CMC model is the only one that is forecasting it to continue to move west, and it takes it Thursday into the border of Louisiana and Texas
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
>>> I wonder what a screw feels like when it's flying at you at 130mph.....?
So, you're saying there are a few screws loose in PCB?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle
|
Whoever gets it will have a lot of mess to clean up afterwards.. Good luck to them, I have had two already and I am still cleaning up debris from the yard and the lake has over flowed into my yard.. Even saw two gators swimming where my grass use to be.. Anyways my point is, its gonna be someones mess, hope its not mine.. (pretty sure it wont be)
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:55 PM |
|
|
|
From Tampa 12:57 Discussion
|
THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL LIFT OUT OUT AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
85W. ONE WORRISOME FEATURE IS THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE
WEST. THIS WILL TRY TO NUDGE THE STORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE LAST THING WE WANT IS FOR
IVAN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THIS TROUGH APPROACHING. THE HURRICANE
GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH MOVING THE STORM OUT AND NOT TIL
IT GETS TO THE NORTHERN GULF DOES IVAN BEGIN TO FEEL THIS TROUGH.
THIS FORECAST DEPENDS ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF
IVAN. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEVIATES EVEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR
RIGHT IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT. STAY TUNED FOR CHANGES.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:55 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Hope its east of Biloxi, sorry AL coast and FL Panhandle
|
scary graphic...see attachment
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:56 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Can anyone explain the implications of the two eyewalls? Is this bad or good?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 05:58 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I rode out Erin Opal Andrew Camille, and many others. Lived in La. and Panhandle of Florida. I can tell you if you Leave at the last minute you will be sitting on the highway parking lot. If you plan to leave imho you need to do it early. I thought I was going to die on the Interstate bridge during Opal, traffic was stop for hours. Try to go to the bathroom while in car for hours and listening to the radio annoucer say its a cat five and if your not in shelter you are going to die. Anyway , Thanks for the site and if you are new to the Gulf Coast and wondering what to do , Leave or Hunker Down...but don't wait till the last minute
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:01 PM |
|
north turn?
|
when does Ivan need to begin his more northerly turn to stay on the HN\\NHC projected path?
Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:03 PM |
|
Re: north turn?
|
oops
HN\\NHC
=
NHC
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:04 PM |
|
|
|
Cayman mashing
|
From the 2:00 TWO:
Reports from ham radio operators and the Cayman meteorological service indicate that power is out throughout the island...numerous buildings have lost their roofs...water up to 2 feet deep covers the Airport runway...and water as high as 5 feet is flowing through many homes.
Can you imagine what it would have been like if Ivan made a direct hit?
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Fox news talking about the "possibility" of New Orleans as a landfall site.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:09 PM |
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I just saw that too. I am in Baton Rouge, and the weatherman here are starting to be concerned.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I wouldnt be surprised if this storm seriously misbhaves once he enters the gulf.. The gulf is a hurricanes playground.. Lets see what he does once he enters..
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Actually, New Orleans and Mobile are looking good for the landfall area of hurricane Ivan. JB did say that area was a hot spot for strong landfalling hurricanes, let's see if he's right. No one take this too personal, I'm not wishing the storm your way it has to make landfall somewhere once it's in the GOM.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:17 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Projected path or not, I don't think anybody really knows. Wondering how it will play out. Charley was a fast shock to the system, Frances was long and drawn out and by now with Ivan I am utterly exhausted. Fortunately, nothing else is popping up out there. (knocking on wood)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Don't think that just because the water in the GOM is very warm, hurricanes become stronger. There is some shear coming down, let's hope that it can work it's magic on Ivan.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:25 PM |
|
|
|
Recon Frequency Question
|
I have been wondering about the schedule the NHC has been following with recon flights. Two nights in a row, we have had an intensifying hurricane approaching heavily populated areas, only to have a 6 hour lapse of recon data between flights at that critical time. It seems to me the NHC should be in that storm continuously as long as it is a threat. I know there are budget contraints, but this is a serious situation. Isn't it true that real-time recon data input into the models helps give a clearer picture of the storm's predicted path? Seems to me that the forecasters are truly in the dark as to the eventual landfall with Ivan. Maybe a continuous recon data feed would help....??????
--Lou
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
agreed... anything can happen at this point.. Its the track that concerns me more than the strength.. Dont want people to be caught off guard..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:29 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
I think they've up'd the recon schedule to a flight every 3 hours starting today.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:30 PM |
|
Quote from KSC chief Met on GOM storms....
|
John Madura, chief of the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office, made these comments in a local newpaper this morning:
"""Forecasting storms in the Atlantic is more straightforward, Madura said, because the Bermuda high plays such a large role in their track.
"The Gulf of Mexico is hard to forecast," he said. "It's notorious. It's the graveyard of busted forecasts." ""
GOM, the graveyard of busted forecasts.... what a great quote, and how apropos!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:31 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
109
NOUS42 KNHC 121630
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1230 PM EDT SUN 12 SEP 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEP 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE IVAN
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 13/1800,2100,14/0000Z A. 14/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 3109A IVAN B. AFXXX 3209A IVAN
C. 13/1500Z C. 14/0001Z
D. 22.2N 84.1W D. 23.5N 84.5
E. 13/1700Z TO 14/0030Z E. 14/0200Z TO 14/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE FLIGHT FOUR
A. 14/1200Z A. 14/1200,1500,1800Z
B. NOAA9 3309A IVAN B. AFXXX 3409A IVAN
C. 14/0530Z C. 14/0930Z
D. N/A D. 22.5N 82.7W
E. N/A E. 14/1100Z TO 14/1830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Quote from KSC chief Met on GOM storms....
|
That's a good quote and it makes sense as opposed to some other quotes that I have heard. Wouldn't it be easy if hurricanes just traveled west from where they formed; and then the earth would stop spinning! LOL
P.S I changed my avatar, and I'm keeping it this way.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:43 PM |
|
Ivan
|
He better start gaining some lat. fast or he will not make the NHC track. The way it looks now he would have to take a straight NW path starting right now to make it to the very western tip of Cuba, at least that's how I see it at the moment.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:45 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
looks that way to me too
with the scientific straight edge method...
it looks like it would nail the yucatan
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:46 PM |
|
|
Cayman Island Reports
|
The following information is about weather conditions on the Cayman Islands:
1. South Sound station:
http://www.weatherincayman.com/
http://www.weatherincayman.com/currcndx.htm
reported an 88 mph gust this morning at 7:40 before all gauges fell to 0, indicating that the equipment is probably damaged or gone. They also reported 72" of rain with rates up to 96" per hour, probably an exaggeration due to wind rocking the gauge. The barometer has fallen from 1007 yesterday at 10am to 972 (28.70") before the station stopped reporting. Historical graphs are available at
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IGEORGET1
2. Savannah:
http://www.weatherincayman.com/zf1ej/wx.htm
reported a gust of 79 mph at 4:16 a.m. before the transmissions stopped. They reported a barometer fall from 998 at midnight to 984 at 4 a.m.
3. Red Bay:
has not reported since 9/9/04.
4.The airport at Georgetown:
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/int_ad...ity2=BASSETERRE
had a sustained wind of 35 mph at 9 p.m. last night with gusts to 51 before it stopped transmitting.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
I don't think it will hit Cuba and I have never thought that it would. I somehow had a feeling that it would continue it's westward track, and not abide to the NHC forecast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:48 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
The latest models have it shifting west some
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:49 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
wouldnt suprise me if Ivan avoids cuba and the yocatan and goes between them.....seeing how it likes to avoid land
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
They would have to because Ivan moved farther west. The 5 PM forecast is going to an interesting one, anyone think that they'll give on there drastic recurvature and Florida panhandle landfall?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:54 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Can anyone tell me how the weather service derives there forcast model, I heard they average all or some third party models?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
I dont think there going to change it much. It will be interesting at 5:00. Good the sharks back!
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:55 PM |
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Hi.... It may say new subscriber to the left, but I just forgot my old user name and pass. I haven't been here for two years since moving from Delray Bch to Wisconsin. I think I used to be known as Red Dawg.....maybe....???
Been lurking lots this season, though.....
I'm gonna step out on a limb since I see everyones forecasts of landfall moving further and further west along the gulf coast.
I just don't see it. and some of the right-side outlying models are starting to back me up.
Sure the cat 4 & 5 can bull its way through as we've been seeing, but, I think, once the sheer kicks in Ivan will become more and more suseptible to steering influences.
Ultimately, I see the big hook coming thats gonna whip him back towards the peninsula...... and a landfall at about Cedar Key to Clearwater.
Just my hunch based on my observations<-worth 2 centavos
Disclaimer: I'm not a met. Never claimed to be one. Base all your decisions on official products of the NHC.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
If it does go to the Yucatan I think it will jet away from it , just like it did with Jam.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 06:59 PM |
|
Question
|
Yes, another question. Ivan looks like he is pushing the first trof in the gulf to the north somewhat while the second trof is getting very close to the Texas coast. What happens when the two trofs back into each other?
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:00 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Thanks Tikibar, I hope you are right. The waiting is almost as bad as riding them out. I
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Question
|
I've also noticed Ivan's influence on the weather around him. Look how the surrounding features are affected by Ivan.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:03 PM |
|
Re: Question
|
Looks to me Cancun should be under a watch?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:04 PM |
|
I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
Just made the flying run to N. AL to pick up some backup computer systems for use during Ivan...just settling in and starting the forecast process.
Ivan looks on track for my earlier ideas from last week, but the forecast is still far from certain. I am having real problems buying the further west tracks (Biloxi Westward), but we will have to see where the NW to N turn begins to get a good handle on it. To my eye, it still looks like a Panhandle storm, but we are now in await and see mode.
Folks here are flooding their home improvement stores and grocery stores just in case, and the town is buzzing with anticpation.
A note: as you might imagine it is about to get really busy here...I will post and respond as I have time...but please don't be offended if you ask me a question and you don't get an answer.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Question
|
Ivan is still on a West path. Slight very Slight North but not gaining much latitude at all.
Is there a big curve in Ivan's future? Well at this rate it will take until mid week to know for sure.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Question
|
It wouldnt surprise me a bit if it did make it to texas!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
JK,
Good to have a real met on line...
Agree with you on the panhandle, but Ivan's sure tracking west...he'll probably still go over Coobah, although even that's a bit doubtful now.
How far is PCB from Biloxi? Is it less than 100 miles?
Just make sure the Spinacker is still standing when Ivan is all said and done, 'k?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:15 PM |
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
We are a bit over 100 miles away, to say the least.
Yes, he is moving a good bit west, but all the data that I can lay my hands on says that it shouldn't last a whole lot longer...we'll see.
| sullynole |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:16 PM |
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
I believe there's a good 200 miles or so between PCB and Biloxi.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
>>> all the data that I can lay my hands on says that it should last a whole lot longer
Should or Shoudn't?
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
did you mean to say "should" or "shouldn't"?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:17 PM |
|
Jason
|
Do you mean "shouldn't" last longer?
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:19 PM |
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
SHOULDN'T...
That is what 4 hrs of sleep does for you in the last 48.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jason
|
LOL! I guess we don't hinge on his every word, do we?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:22 PM |
|
Jason
|
Well, 3 people in a row asking you the same thing.
I think that should tell you that we really pay attention to what you say.
ShawnS
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jason
|
Wow three people asking the same question, just kidding. Ivan seems to have good outflow in just about all quads except the western. Why is this?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:25 PM |
|
12Z Euro shift west .... LA/MS line
|
12Z ECMWF model run has it at the MS/LA line in 96 hours.... regardless of some of the models shifting west I expect the following statement in the 5:00 pm update........
""THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.""
The GOM... "the graveyard of busted forecasts..... "
and more busted forecasts to come I'm sure..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:27 PM |
|
Re: 12Z Euro shift west .... LA/MS line
|
Round and round and round he blows, where he stops, nobody knows...
| dolphinscry |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:30 PM |
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
Hello,
I have been watching and waiting along w/ everyone all over the state since Charley went and surprised us all.
I am in Sumter co., and since we are where we are, sometimes it is hard to get proper info.
(We get weather for Orlando, Tampa, and Jacksonville) I guess the biggest ?? here in the sort of North/Central-West/Central part of Florida is how badly should we be affected?
The weather right now is nasty, and we have so many oaks ready to come down that were weakened by Frances.
IF it were to stay on track, and even if NOT, the western Gulf will have weather, regaurdless.
....Unless of course it blows WAY off track, which I dont see happening either.
Anyway, Hello to you all, and thank you for all the great and interesting insights!
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
jason,
can you give me a link of finding what the actual storm surge was here during opal?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:40 PM |
|
Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
116 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA HAS LED
TO MORE SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS
VERY WET SCENARIO FOR MONDAY...I FEEL IT WENT TOO FAR ON THE DRY
SIDE THIS TIME...THUS KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST (40% SOUTHEAST...TRENDING TO 20 NORTHWEST).
IVAN IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PACKAGE AND WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT AS OF 12Z THAN IT WAS AT 6Z. SPREAD IS NOW SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN BILOXI MS AND APALACHEE BAY FL. OFFICIAL TRACK IS VIRTUALLY
UNCHANGED SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT...ALTHOUGH OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS A
TREND TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK HAS BEEN EVIDENT. OUR MAIN
CONCERN IT THAT THIS TREND CONTINUES WHICH I FEE IT WILL. A
LANDFALL IN FAR WESTERN FL OR EVEN AL WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE IMPACT TO CENTRAL AL. THE KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
THIS TRACK IS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHERN
MS/WESTERN TN. LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES ARE A BIT CONCERNING IN THAT
THIS FEATURE LOOKS LIKE IT COULD ALREADY BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND COULD BE STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST. IF THIS IS INDEED
THE CASE...A LANDFALL MUCH FURTHER WEST WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK WHICH LEADS TO A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHEREVER ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IVAN WINDS UP...WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AT
LEAST A PORTION OF CENTRAL AL LATE WED AND THURS. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND AROUND 150 MILES FROM THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD
ENCOMPASS AN AREA FROM AROUND NEW ORLEANS...TO TALLAHASSEE.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:42 PM |
|
|
|
From Thomas as of Midday Today
|
Looking at the morning visible satellite image from NRL Monterey CAT 4 Hurricane Ivan is undergoing another weakening cycle due to eyewall replacement as the north eyewall grazes Grand Cayman Island. I also notice a blowup of convection in his west eyewall much like CAT 4 Charley.
Looking at a long satellite image loop Ivan continues to slow his forward speed and is moving at more like 280 deg. then the 290 deg. (WNW) that the NHC is describing. If this current track holds then Ivan could clip the Yucatan Peninsula and become a threat to the mid Gulf Coast of the U.S. But, the blow up of convection in the west eyewall could be a sign that a more NW turn will begin soon. I can't put forth a big argument with the current NHC forecast track. BUT looking at the latest water vapor satellite image I see a slight weakening of the large Bermuda high pressure ridge and a strengthening and southward digging of the 500 mb shortwave in the vicinity of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. I think this trend will continue, with forecast models and the NHC official track coming back towards the east with time.
I think we will see Ivan return to CAT 5 status later today with a passage across the western end of Cuba west of the Isle Of Youth and then emerge into the Gulf Of Mexico around 84-85 deg. west longitude as a CAT 4 sometime on Tuesday September 14, 2004. Ivan will then encounter SW-W wind shear and weaken to a CAT 3-2 cyclone with a NNE-NE track landfall around Apalachicola. There is still a good "chance" for a further east landfall in the vicinity of Cedar Key with some damaging storm surge in the shallow estuary of Tampa Bay and northward along the Nature Coast.
I continue to monitor the NHC amateur radio weather net on 14325.0 kc. I'm hearing very few amateur radio operators on the air from Jamaica and no one from the Cayman Islands, a bad sign to me.
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
JK,
Just when do you see the northward turn coming? Cuz to my untrained eye, he looks like he's going to cross 85W before he gets to 20N. And he also appears to be undergoing a MAJOR ERC at the moment. I'm guessing when he's done shedding his skin, he spins down to a ~900mb monstah.
Also, whatever happened to the dude who wanted to rent a 747 to drop you-know-what into poor Ivan.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:48 PM |
|
Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today
|
Don't disagree with this analysis...Ivan may pass Cuba just off shore to the western tip, but its trip into the GOM will be back to the NNE-NE...the trough is rapidly descending into the Gulf coast its into mid LA now and the ridge is lifting out Nobody eneto north of the center as it emerges into the GOM is out of the woods untiit passes them by
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today
|
Theres alot of people on other boards with the same cedar key/ tampa scenario.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:51 PM |
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
andy1tom,
Check out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html , section b, "Meteorological Statistics". It says the Panama City Beach piertide gage was 8.3 feet above sea level with an added 10 feet of breaking waves on top of that, totally 18' above mean sea level. Hope this helps you.
Tony
Panama City
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
I thought that stuff was already de-bunked as snake oil?
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/C5d.html
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:59 PM |
|
Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
But have they tried Dyno Gel Ultra??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 07:59 PM |
|
Trofs
|
I still have a feeling that Ivan pushing the first trof back to the north is somehow going to have an effect on the second trof. Now I know I will be the only one to say this but that is just my feeling.
ShawnS
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:02 PM |
|
|
|
Is Ivan Stalling???
|
Look at the last 2 hours of the IR loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
I see very little motion....none to the west and only a very small jog to the north. If this thing completely stalls out...then all future track bets are off.
--Lou
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: I'm back...at least for a bit....
|
thanks tony,
not on the beach but on the water. almost 7 ft above sea level. already making plans to get the kids outta of dodge and just wondering when i need to. opal didn't get in the house but you couldn't see any yard just all water. and land fall was a good 80 miles from here.
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
shhh
you're not s'posed to use that word here
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Interesting analysis in Birmingham AFD this afternoon
|
Ivan Ivan Ivan.
where are you going?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Quote:
Fortunately, nothing else is popping up out there. (knocking on wood)
At least in this neck of the woods, there isn't any wood to knock on.
I'll probably sound like a broken record since I just came on (it's football season, too!) but I have to tell you that at this point, I wouldn't bet my life savings on Central Florida avoiding a miss, even it's 50 miles offshore. I've noticed in the last couple of discussions (since 11 last night) that they are keeping the track to the east of model guidance. It also looks like some of the models are now shifting a *tad* back to the right again, but I would think that they would wait for some more consistent runs before putting some of the central peninsula back into the cone.
Keep in mind that I am not a met and I did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, either. Although that might not be a bad idea because at least I might get some sleep.
| clueless |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:17 PM |
|
question from the peanut gallery
|
I am really new to hurricanes, but I think I am noticing something that I cant explain. For a few days before both Ivan and Charlie I seem to remember that the winds were unusually strong here and that my sinuses were a mess which happens every time we get any frontal activity (High or low doesnt seem to matter). If my memory serves me correctly the changes I saw were too far in front of the storm to actually attribute them to the storm. Can anyone help me to understand better what I have seen, because I am still noticing that here now and trying to destress myself a little bit
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:20 PM |
|
|
|
From the endzone...
|
NYJ 31
CIN 24
TEN 17
MIA 7
WAS 16
TB 10
JAX 13
BUF 10
SEA 21
NO 7
What was that about the 'aints offense Steve?
| tikibar |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
PIT 24
OAK 21
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:23 PM |
|
Re: question from the peanut gallery
|
Same thing here is Sebring. Just not "normal". But over the past month's experiences, I can only attribute it to what's been happening. Hurricanes! I know very little about any of this (have learned tons from this site, though). Until Ivan is well north of me, then I'll be relieved.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:24 PM |
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
Ivan 2 NHC 0
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
ok,
fsu lost, oak lost, tb lost... it comes in threes' aint no way ivan is coming here..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
WE NOW RETURN YOU TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED HURRICANE
Sorry, mods...
....I just know for me that a little humor goes a long way in situations like the one we're in now.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
TWC: Cedar Key and North Reddington Beach - am I missing something?
| Terry Johnson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:35 PM |
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
What???? No Browns score????
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
anyone have a scoop on the next advisory?? looking at the loops i would say its slowing but does that mean it going to make the turn to the north or going to do another jog west?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:42 PM |
|
Ivan
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Look at this and see if you don't notice how the trof that was barreling down has really slowed like it ran into a wall or something. If you don't see it than I guess I'm wrong.
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:44 PM |
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
Slowing usually means a track shift, but we will have to wait and see...but I think I see hints of a north jog in the last few frames...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:45 PM |
|
|
5pm Advisory scoop
|
The 5 PM EDT position...19.3 N... 82.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...150 mph. Minimum central pressure... 916 mb.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:48 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
I do see it. It looks to me like Ivan is pushing the dry air ahead of it into the trof at lower levels. However the trof convection isn't getting pushed, it almost looks like it is starting to interact directly with Ivan. I think this is when the turn will start.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:50 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
CHECK OUT WJHG.COM
PANAMA CITY, FL
RADAR ON RIGHT....VIPIR.. NEW?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:52 PM |
|
Re: 5pm Advisory scoop
|
New position out... headed almost due west. I know everyone keeps saying a turn "any hour now" but geez... Ivan isn't listening. Now advisories are going out for Mexico...
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:52 PM |
|
|
Re: From the endzone... hey phil
|
this might be a hurricane related string afterall
lets think on this
miami did lousy (and we thought that was bad coaching)
new orleans lost...
tampa lost
maybe all those players have a lot on their minds
i mean if you had million dollar luxury homes with every latest convenience known to mankind in them and had to go out there and play knowing it might all be whoosh taken away
would your mind be on the game?
maybe..those players have been sitting up all night watching TWC
hmnnn
a lot of teams in the cone of uncertainty LOST
see my point???
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
Wow..that was a great loop to look at. Looks like the High by eastern Florida is starting to weaken, lifting more up to the north, and the trough is really coming in strong. From what I have seen with my un-college-educated eye is that maybe that western motion is slowing and the lifting of the high is going to allow Ivan to start moving more NW.
It also appears that Ivan is now too far west to allow for that trough to push him under Florida.
This is going to be interesting, huh?
Is that what your're seeing?
Note: maybe this is why the NHC has kept the forecast track a little further east of the model guidance for the last couple of advisories?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:54 PM |
|
|
|
bill you just never give up do you?
|
They posted watches and/or warnings for the yucatan
tho they do insist it is going wnw...
would say really north of due west and they are hoping it will go wnw
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:55 PM |
|
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
Folks here in Pensacola are boarding up like crazy. I haven't really done anything yet but may tomorrow.
Ivan is taking us for quite a ride!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 08:58 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
it might have slowed, but the ridge is nosing quickly into North Dakota, and if anything, is locking that into place. I am seeing the who structure sharpen, as evidenced by the ULL over Memphis, and the backing of the flow in front of it. The trough looks to be entrenching itself, and the fact that Ivan has slowed, might mean it is starting to influence it. Big storms never make turns at high speed, so it may be closer to turning.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:01 PM |
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
6 mb pressure drop.... Still moving to the WNW.... Ok Ivan, I'm getting tired of this game.... Show us your cards!
No surprise to me regarding the Saints score.... Any real Saints fan doesn't expect them to win!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:03 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Quote:
CHECK OUT WJHG.COM
PANAMA CITY, FL
RADAR ON RIGHT....VIPIR.. NEW?
Yep...
That is what I have been working on all weekend....LOTS more coming..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:04 PM |
|
Re: From the endzone...
|
No 5pm discussion,maybe they do not know what to say?
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:05 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Walter Mastre calling for an evacuation from New Orleans within the next 24 hours! New Orleans will be gone if this storm hits! We will be 30 foot under water!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan
|
I urge anyone who has not already done so to read the 5:00 discussion, written by Stacy Stewart. Why can't he just write them all?
Jason, great work on the VIPIR!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:07 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
New discussion just out, their take seems to be similar on the trough-honestly, I typed it before I read it! lol
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:07 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Florida, Louisiana, Mexico. Nobody knows where Ivan is going. All they know is he's got to go somewhere!!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:07 PM |
|
|
|
NEW THREAD!
|
Another new thread is up...let's all head over there.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: From Thomas as of Midday Today
|
Quote:
BUT looking at the latest water vapor satellite image I see a slight weakening of the large Bermuda high pressure ridge and a strengthening and southward digging of the 500 mb shortwave in the vicinity of SE Texas/SW Louisiana. I think this trend will continue, with forecast models and the NHC official track coming back towards the east with time.
There is still a good "chance" for a further east landfall in the vicinity of Cedar Key with some damaging storm surge in the shallow estuary of Tampa Bay and northward along the Nature Coast.
I'm a greenie at this, a real greenie, but I am seeing the same thing. In the interest of my education, I'd sure like to hear more discussion of this scenario.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:09 PM |
|
|
|
Movement
|
Terra, I think they will wait and see if this is jog to the nw or a trend; since it just started doing it, they'll wait and see if it keeps up before changing the storm's direction.
LoisCane; everyone on these boards have been talking about hurricanes for the last month, nonstop. I don't think it hurts anyone to report a score here or there to lighten up what for many people is a very heavy and tiresome burden. Everyone needs a little break. Doesn't mean we aren't watching the storm, it just means that there are other things going on BESIDES Ivan. If the mods want to remove the comments, they will. I think everyone is just a little edgy.
| mijk55 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:09 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
Quote:
Walter Mastre calling for an evacuation from New Orleans within the next 24 hours! New Orleans will be gone if this storm hits! We will be 30 foot under water!
WHAT? where'd you hear this?
I really hope Ivan stays away: EVERYONE look at this (really scary): http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane1.html
| St. David |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:18 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
it was reported on wwl.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:40 PM |
|
Re: Ivan
|
where on wwl??
they are running rebroadcats now and i didnt see it in the noon
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 09:42 PM |
|
|
|
GUYS, NEW THREAD!
|
Mike posted a new thread about 40 minutes ago...
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 12 2004 10:01 PM |
|
Re: Ivan Misses a Direct hit on the Caymans to the South
|
Quote:
>>> I wonder what a screw feels like when it's flying at you at 130mph.....?
So, you're saying there are a few screws loose in PCB?
They are doing a ton of construction on the strip. They're tairing down all of the old hotels and resturaunts to put up condo highrises. There is construction debris everywehre down there! Not to mention screws....I got one in the sidewall of my tire driving down there.