(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:26 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Have heard this said before time and time again but think this time its for real that we are watching a historical hurricane we will remember for years to come about to make landfall on the central Gulf.

Easy to look at charts, sats and loops and think Ivan will move nne or even ne just before landfall. The case for such a track is there however sometimes you have to throw the climo and the forecasted tracks out the window a bit and look at the particular cane involved. Something About Ivan wants to go west.. always. If there is any way this storm can find a westward component in its movement it will find a way. Hard to ignore millions of dollars of money invested in models and lord only knows what the FSU superensemble has to say (seems only Avilla likes to talk) but in the end..very soon we will see where he goes.

And... where he goes directly affects Jeanne. She looks better than any tropical storm that close to Ivan should. The views of the two of them sitting on the screen like Big Daddy and Little Miss are entrancing to those of us that love to watch tropical weather.

Great discussion here tonight. Not much to add. Just adding my two cents... hope everyone is right and this isn't a worst case scenario for NOLA. People I trust have been saying Mobile for over a week.

Is there a good scenario here?

Thanks for keeping this site going.. Bobbi

Kdubs

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:34 AM

Weather Tracker Tool

There is a fun weather tracking tool available on the web at www.orlandoweather.com. Then, under Hurricane Central/Interactive, select Storm Tracker. You can watch an animation of the storms from this year, last year, and select historical storms in motion and stack their tracking maps on top of each other. Charley and Ivan were on the same track until Cuba and this site demonstrates that very nicely.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:35 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Bobbi -- there's no good scenario here, I'm afraid. The only scenario that would be good is the Roxanne 1995 scenario, but I can't see that happening well offshore.

The FSU Superensemble is reasonably in line with much of the rest of the model guidance, as noted by the NHC, and is more or less what the NHC official track is based upon.

Just a note on the warm eddy referenced in the thread starter...it is moreso an impact on the depth of the warm waters as opposed to warmer water. Much of the water over the central Gulf is in the mid 80s, +/- a degree or so from 86°F. However, the depth of this warm water is important in hurricane intensification, as recent studies have shown. In the region where the storm is now and especially close to shore, the depth is not very deep...~100ft, if that in some places. However, near the warm eddy, waters under the surface are warm to much greater depths, ~150-250ft. In regions further to the west, they are a bit deeper than that.

While a few tens to a hundred feet may not seem significant, it really is in terms of a storm maintaining intensity (or weakening/strengthening). It's but one of many factors into intensity forecasting, but will play a key role here.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:35 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Thanks for the new thread, Mike. As always, you're doing an outstanding job keeping the site up...

Bobbi, great post...I hope I am wrong...I REALLY HOPE I AM WRONG, but I have a sick feeling this is one we'll be talking about for YEARS to come.

Everybody...pray against that...

Finally, I'm calling on Rabbit to post that this will dissipate...or at least ramp down.

We need that Rabbit voodoo hex more than ever now...

Failing that...everyone needs to be safe (duh). Ivan is about to move over 86 degree waters (ferchrissake)...there's no way he's dissapating anytime soon, but maybe closer to land...pray

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:38 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

I am amazed still at the amount of water this thing is pushing along with it...

Does anyone here have a SLOSH program and can run a Cat4 at Mobile Bay for New Orleans?

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:41 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Check the end of last thread Phil posted a few sites that were very good. They are on the last page.

Storm Cooper

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:43 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Just to note about the "warm eddy".... saw a lot about that eddy and its possible "play" with Ivan today.... but I first learned about this from our own JK... seems to be about a week ago give or take. Way to go and thanks JK!

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:43 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

infantkitten,

I'm going to get that info one day, but for now:

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/products/alabama/htm/hssra.htm

http://www.sam.usace.army.mil/stormmap/surgeinfo.htm

hope that helps.

I'm so tired I can't even bother to use the URL feature...

danielw

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:47 AM

Attachment

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

I need someone with Rogue Wave experience to look at this link.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/cgi-bin/buoy/buoy.cgi?992440
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/SYS.shtml
If that's what I think it is somebody in deep trouble.
Cat 4 in Mobile. Hmmm, had a Cat 3 few years back that sucked/blew the water out of Mobile Bay, Could happen to Lake Ponchatrain just as easy.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:51 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Any hope of this storm weakening before landfall like they said yesterday? To me, it seems like that idea is not valid anymore! Warm eddies....lessening shear at landfall....hmm historic storm indeed. Folks if you are in the path of this storm and don't feel 100% comfortable about your surroundings...either go more inland or go to a shelter for at least the worst of it...ask the folks that survived Andrew about how they felt when their windows and concrete walls were caving in around them and their shutters were being ripped off the house. This is not to alarm anyone just to insert some realty...although you will most likely survive the storm....do you or your family want to suffer from PTSD (Post Traumtic Stress Disorder) afterwards?

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:54 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Justin -- I hate to pull out Andrew as a comparable, but there is no skirting the damage that it caused in Miami. The graphics and stories out of there, even to this day, are frightening and amazing.

While Ivan is not as tight and compact -- and thankfully as strong -- as Andrew, the damage will be intense and spread out over a larger area. There is a chance at some weakening due to shallower waters and increasing dry air, but this storm has defied those predictions before. Strengthening probably won't happen, though. For everyone's sake, this thing needs to spin down.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:01 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Appreciate everyone's comments tonight, great advice as usual... I have my bags packed and on standby status... will check one final time at 6:00 am on Ivan's track and intensity.... sure am leaning towards leaving but also praying for that n to ne turn... spaghetti model makes me sick... hard to believe that I have the possibility of getting a second "100" year hurricane in just 35 years... god, I feel like a 100 year old right now anyway...

This will be my last post for tonight.... but will monitor closely everyone's thoughts and analysis....

To everyone in harms way.... good luck and godspeed....To everyone else, have a great day tomorrow and I know you will be thinking of us...

Sad, a plethora of lives will be devistated during the next 24-36 hours...

Frank P

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:06 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Good luck Frank P....just looked at a map...damn Biloxi sure is close to the Mobile area...about 40-60 miles away...too close for me..assuming the eye goes east of you into that area. Goodnight eveyone...

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:06 AM

ivan options

lemme see... big bend idea.. done for. the grouped modeling is saying central gulf coast.. emphasis on alabama's small coastline. if it goes left it gets the biloxi-pascagoula area.. right and pensacola takes it on the nose. no good options here.. save weakening. high heat content ssts don't always affect mature hurricanes very much.. take frances rolling over the gulfstream earlier this month and not reintensifying before hitting florida. ivan is in a light shear/light subsidence environment.. warm eddy or no i'm thinking it stays where it is at worst and weakens down to a 105-110kt storm at best. world of difference between a 3 and a 4. don't see a 2 happening.. always possible, but don't see it. so, ivan breaks billions of dollars worth of real estate at the coast. then it goes inland.. and modeling is going cuckoo with it from there. the official may say a deceleration over the cumberland plateau, but the trend recently has been for most every model to turn the storm southerly, on a backtrack path as it decays. being september i wouldn't expect this scenario to unfold (usually a summer tropical storm like allison of 2001 or alberto of 1994). but here we are at the precipice of fall and that's what ivan will probably do. parts of the south are in for a massive flooding event.
oh yeah, then there's jeanne. the forecast track takes it near the bahamas.. as a hurricane (with the long range conservatism evident).. which translates to probably a strong hurricane in the bahamas next week. past the official forecast period, ridging near the east coast is progged to strengthen.. the storm should bend left and hit the southeast coast later next week. frances and gaston have recently churned the waters there, but the upwelling and mixing effects are largely dissipated at this point.. jeanne is poised to be a present follow-on threat.
SOI went negative, and the eastpac action should continue to mirror atlantic development (jeanne may be the response to isis).. with javier active a karl may well appear next week. par for the course this year, it seems.
good luck buckling down or getting out if you're on the middle gulf coast. i'm hoping for the best... prayers are as much as i can offer.
HF 0405z15september

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:07 AM

busting through the dry air

hi,

i am wondering what the effect will be on ivans path when
it bust through the dry air to it's west and meets up with the ridge (?) on the other side. will the ridge will not allow any further west movement. is this correct?

thx for the board and education

Storm Cooper

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:08 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Back at you Frank P. Take Care and hang in there.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:08 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Buoy 42003 appears to still be with us, at 9:50 CDT it reported waves at 35.8 ft and winds at 54.4 kts gust to 71.9 kts. Let's see if it makes its 10:50 CDT report.

36 ft waves? I can't even imagine what that would be like.

Bill

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:13 AM

Re: busting through the dry air

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/Wcontrol/miss.htm

Thanks for the Army Corp idea, Phil.
I did find this link that is from them, real-time gages along the Mississippi River.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:14 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Frank P.

God Speed and stay safe.

I can well imagine your thoughts as Ivan approaches. There's a world of difference in tracking a storm that is hitting some place els and one that is aiming right at you. I learned that feeling this year with Charley and Frances.

Look forward to your future posts and insights.

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:17 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

I looked at the surge graph earlier... the water is amazing. I am probably reading it wrong but at one point it looked to be 46ft.
It was on the east - north quadrant
But again, I could have been been reading it incorrectly.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:23 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

I could be (very) wrong, but I don't beleive it's possible in the US for a storm surge to exceed say 35+ feet, even in a major CAT V. Still, surge coupled with massive wave heights could be catastrophic...

Allison

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:25 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Quote:

Buoy 42003 appears to still be with us, at 9:50 CDT it reported waves at 35.8 ft and winds at 54.4 kts gust to 71.9 kts. Let's see if it makes its 10:50 CDT report.

Buoy data at 10:50 CDT shows the pressure rising... winds from ESE at 48.6 kts... center has likely moved on past the buoy...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Allison

bsnyder

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:26 AM

A question about the weather inland

Sitting here in Tampa, thankful that Ivan has decided not to pay us a visit, and praying for the folks in the northern Gulf coast states....be safe, please!!!

And now I'm worrying about Ivan's inland track and what the weather will likely be like on Saturday/Sunday. My parents are suppose to fly into Atlanta-Hartsfield on Saturday, from Germany, and drive to their home in the western NC mountains. On the current track, is it possible their flight will get diverted, or that the Atlanta airport will close?

Sure looks like those are possibilities, and that if they do make it into Atlanta that they should head south, to Tampa, rather than north into what could be some really nasty weather on Saturday evening and Sunday.

Any thoughts? I'm hoping they'll call sometime before Saturday so I can advise them. They probably have no idea right now that there's a hurricane.
the storm will have weakened below tropical storm strength by saturday. it will be raining itself out over the southern appalachians at the time.. so your folks will be contending with flood-type effects if anything. hartsfield may have delays due to inclement weather, but i don't think it will close down. -HF

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:26 AM

Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

First, LI Phil has done a great job in here, and is understandably exhausted. He has pleaded for everyone to go to safer areas a lot, but asked me to post on the seriousness of this.

The new models are in, and it looks like there is little track change, and the 6z are run off of the 0z.
This may go a shade west of Mobile Bay, but the exact location may matter little. 500 miles wide of land will see tropical storm force winds, just on the coast, 210 miles hurricane force winds. Storm surge will be incredible. 10" of rain or more is likely in spots, as well as tornadoes in the right side. Inland areas will be hard-hit as well, as it will remain a hurricane for quite a while.
The dillemma of this post is, if I scare people, and they come through unscathed, I'll be an alarmist, if I don't and something happens, that would be a tragedy. I would rather people anywhere near the threat area, and even those inland, to play it as cautious as possible, because you can put a value on a house, but not a human life.

All of us in here are concerned, and scared for those in the path. We have seen the pictures of Camille, the video from Grenada, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands.
Everyone should rely on their LOCAL officials for the proper action to take, I can''t tell anyone what that proper action is. Whatever happens, PLEASE don't go out in it, don't try to cross flooded roads, and be careful of downed power lines.
If there is any doubt at all, play it safe.
We all "hoped" it would weaken, "wished" it would change, but it is almost here now. The better people to write this would be those who live in Florida.
Again, your local officials know what's best, lean on them.

God Bless all those in Ivan's path, may everyone be safe.
These once in a lifetime events are happening too often, I don't want to see anyone become a statistic.

added note:
Everyone affected, please post when you can, so we know you all are all right. Let's all remember everyone in their prayers, and let's not forget Jason's wife, who is close to delivering.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:28 AM

Warm eddies

Would not put my faith in a warm eddy to save you from the wrath of a storm.

Watch carefully tomorrow and hope it doesn't take anyone by surprise that thinks its going elsewhere down the coast.

Question... when was the last time dauphin island was under water in a storm surge. Know it happened years and years back.

thanks

warm eddy salvation? no.. strengthen the storm if anything. the last time dauphin was really ripped up was frederic in '79. lesser effects since with elena in '85 and georges in '98. -HF

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:30 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Buoy 42003 report at 10:50 PM CDT:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 48.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 60.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 34.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.36 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )

Buoy 42001 report:

Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 35.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 28.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 15 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

I am still amazed at the wave height.

Bill

Kent

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:41 AM

For those who lose power...please read and print

After having no power for 5-6 days I learned a few things that really helped. :

Things that are handy when you lose power for awhile
(most of these items were found at Wal-Mart)

1. an inverter~(costs about $15-$25) It goes in your car lighter and converts to an electrical outlet. It will re-charge your cell phone, a cordless drill, laptop computer, a small fan or most importantly for parents, a small t.v. We have a t.v. that has a combo VCR so when the cable went out the kids still could watch movies. It is most comfortable watching it while actually sitting in the car with the a.c. on. You can get an extension cord though and watch in the house. NOTE: Be sure to get one that has an automatic cut off switch so that you do not drain your car battery. If you have two cars get two converters it is well worth it! My husbands van ran the t.v mine ran the fan. My husband was much braver than I was and kept the van off while we ran the t.v. He never had a single thing happen to the battery. Just be sure you have a full tank of gas that is the only draw back of using the inverter for long periods with the car on.

2. Hand held battery operated fan/water bottle. Wal-Mart $4.00. We used that thing all the time especially at night to fall asleep. If you are lucky enough to have ice, you can take a small bowl filled with ice water and put it in front of the fan as it blows on you. It cools the air down a bit. (we did this for patients in the hospital after Andrew.)

3. Helpful advice: When storing ice, KEEP IT IN THE FREEZER!
I had about 8 bags going into the storm. During the storm as soon as I lost power I took out about 5 bags and put them all in coolers. After the third or fourth day there was still ice in the freezer and NONE in the coolers. A good way to preserve ice is to wrap all the bags together first in newspaper and then a towel. Take one bag out at a time when needed and leave the rest together in the wrapped bundle.

4. Home Depot has portable propane grills for $15. They still had lots when we were getting ready for Ivan so there may be some left. They run off the small bottles of propane. Publix had one time charcoal grills for $5.00. They will grill something for about 30 minutes.

5. Be sure you have extra tarp and duct tape in case there are needed repairs.

6. Get a small inflatable pool if you don't have one built in the ground. We lost power but not water so the kids and I went in it often to cool off.

7. Wal-mart also has battery operated radios for $5.00. They are the kind with earphones~ also good for the kids and to keep abreast of the news.

8. Check camping stores if your local Walmart is out of supplies. There are lots of useful items there like real propane lanterns, battery operated coffee pots, even portable toilets for areas that have a problem with sewage backing up. Martin and St. Lucie counties in Florida both needed electricity to power their lift stations. If the lift stations can't operate there is no water pressure...hence the sewage back up.

9. If you live alone or know someone who does, 7-11 and various convenience stores have emergency cell phones. You pay a one time fee (not sure how much) and you have a month of minutes. You can buy more minutes later if necessary. We lost both phones for awhile but the cell phone came back for most people much sooner than the land lines did.

10. Tap lights! They are at Dollar Tree down here. 2 for $1.00. Not sure if the Dollar stores are everywhere but these things are very useful! Its hard to find D batteries after the storm and the tap lights use AA. (So do the battery fans I mentioned above) I had no problem finding AA batteries anytime I needed them.

11. An air cooler. Wal-mart~$7.00-$13.00. You can attach some to your hose and some are portable. You put cold water in its container then use this pump thing (kinda like a keg) and it lightly mists you. They say it cools the air temp up to 25 degrees. Its good for outside use. Especially the ones that are attached to the hose. You sit under this very light mist and it feels a little like a.c. especially with a breeze. (Don't worry...there will be a breeze!) It's the same premise as those big air misters you see at Universal Studios.

12. Don't forget a manual can opener!

13. If the storm is headed your way now, go turn your freezer and fridge to their coldest settings. Seriously stop reading this for a second and do it. Turn your a.c. down too. Try not to open any doors when you lose power. My kids were in and out all the time so it was useless for us but I was amazed at how much cooler my moms house was after 3 days. By keeping the doors and windows closed she was able to keep some of the cool NON HUMID air inside. Once the humidity creeps in its ten times more miserable.

14. If power is out for more than 2 days have a neighborhood bbq with all the frozen meat that is now defrosting. Its a great way to make new friends. These are the people you will need to be friends with too. Especially when they get power back and you don't!

If anyone has any other suggestions please feel free to add to this list.
kent, my man! great suggestions here, definitely things to consider for a hurricane kit or other aftermath amenities/plans. not often that such useful info gets posted in quantity on the main board.. thanks for extending it. -HF

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:43 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Also this bouy south of Mobile. Waves are growing about 3 every 2 hours. There are getting closer to shore. Everyone be safe.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:50 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Is it just me or would this give us in South AL a little bit of hope that we want get a direct hit

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:51 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Everyone on the whole CHFC "FAMILY" boards...

Thanks for all your kind words...I need to go to sleep now...I am trying (if I can work out some personal stuff) to be aboard ALL NIGHT tomorrow, when the fecal matter will really strike the air mover.

LISTEN to MR SPOCK, HANKFRANK, JASON (IF HE CAN SPARE ONE MINUTE) CLARK, EVEN SCOTSVB AND RABBIT...these gentlemen are experts and can guide you if you need help...In the long term (not too long) feel free to PM me with requests...

HF is on board for a time, I believe as are Coop Mike & John...Ed is probably lurking so...this is a learning and hopefully providing board...throw it out there...

OK Im outta here till (I would say tomoorow..but it's already tomorrow...) be smart, be safe, and just don't ask "I live in Destin, will I get tidal waves?" because right now we just don't know..Peace...

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:51 AM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Having been through four majors in my lifetime (and a few others) it really comes down to a few simple statements.

Pay attention to what your local emergency offiicials say. If they tell you to leave (as in mandatory evacuations) then leave.

You don't have to go 1000 miles away, just go where it is safe. Don't get stuck on an interstate somewhere in the middle of the hurricane trying to get to the "ideal" place. Once clear of storm surge danger areas, just look for a safe place, shelter, hotel, or a friends house.

Storm surge is a killer, don't stay where you are vulnerable. No structure will protect you if it is underwater.

If you're going to ride it out, do so in an interior room, no windows. If it gets really bad, pull a mattress from a bed and put it over your heads and hunker down on the floor. A lot of people survived Andrew using this simple tactic, even as their houses disintegrated around them.

We all hope that Ivan will wind down before landfall, but Frances did and still made one heck of a mess of the east coast of Florida.

Be safe and use your head, don't panic.

Bill

javlin

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:53 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

The weather forecaster here in Biloxi moved up the timetable for landfall about six hrs.I had heard earlier today 7:00> 10:00 Thursday morning.Now that tells me that maybe the forward speed increase was not anticpated maybe and that what was expected to steer Ivan E might come later.Now MrSpock it might not mean alot to you there is a big difference to me 50 in miles E is tolerable to 50 miles W the wind howls long and hard.The NHC has been right of the given track for awhile Ivan is moving hard and strong.The ridge is there.The E deflection is hard to see right now.Maybe like Georges it's going to hit NO and two hrs later my lights are out and I am on the edge of the eye.Seems like metro areas get alot of attention and Gulfport is still no.2 on the list of probabilities.

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:54 AM

Time to sign off

Well the van is packed, everything tied down and secured...just waiting on 3 am so we can hit the roads....Hopefully not as much traffic this early in the morning. I hope everyone in the path of Ivan is prepared whether your staying or leaving....My prayers are with family and friends here in Mobile and those in the path I do not know. I pray I have a house to come back to, which is up on a hill, but surrounded by pine trees...9 within 15 ft from my back door. Frederick was bad, but Ivan is going to be worse.

Southern4sure

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:55 AM

Ivan's storm...and great list kent

if you have kids there arent enough batteries in the world

batteries=your sanity

as for Ivan..
posts here tonight remind me of Isaac's storm the book
and the reality that years ago the only way people knew a storm was coming was:

the swells...riection and heights
cloud patterns...cirrus in summer in florida
winds
patterns...

reminds me of the book
tap lights are good for kids afraid of the dark they can sleep with them, easier than flashlights AA batteries.. weather radio... one with 9 volt the kids wont steal it for their games

buy batteries

Sissy

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:55 AM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

These are great tips and I would like to add another one. I read this on another hurricane board and thought it was crazy, until I tried it. It works! We lost power in Orlando for 7 days and it was almost impossible to sleep at night because of the heat. Here is what I read about that worked: Right before you get into bed, wet the sheets very well with water. We were lucky enough to still have water and it does keep you cool enough to sleep. It also dries very quickly and you may have to re-wet the sheets later. This is something I was grateful to find out about....Another thing I did was to sleep with an icepack which also helped. Also, if you use battery powered lanterns, make sure you have enough 6 volt batteries for them. These were hard to find after the storm hit, and now I have stocked up on them to avoid that if another storm hits. A battery powered radio is a must..It's the only thing that will keep you from feeling totally cutoff from the world. Sissy

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:00 AM

Re: Ivan's storm...and great list kent

If you run out of batteries after the storm, I promisse my husband and his team will be there immediately after restocking the shelves at Lowes.

Wow! just read my post after it posted.........Sorry about the spelling, I've been staring at this screen for so long that I can't see straight.

BeachBum

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:03 AM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Quote:

This may go a shade west of Mobile Bay, but the exact location may matter little.

In a former life I spent a year in Biloxi (next to the lighthouse) and a year North of Fort Walton Beach. I have made many trips between the 2 on US 90 & 98 and have spent some time along the way.

Using a higher resolution than Skeetobite, I see the current forecast would put the eye over Dauphin Island and Bellingrath Gardens as it heads towards Mobile's west side and the U of S Ala.

While any destruction there will indeed be felt most by the local residents, there are many places that have given pleasure to vistors from far away.

I suppose the best wishcast would be for CAT 1.

Domino

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:28 AM

annoying error by local tv station regarding Ivan

This may not belong in here..and if not please move/remove anyway...I keep noticing a local TV station WTHR keeps putting a link to a satellite shot on their main page - but listing it as "updated radar image". Why on would they not just come out and say satellite image? To keep from confusing the public? Or does the web designer just not have a clue what it really is?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:42 AM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

I would like to reiterate what was said before regarding riding out the storm. If you live in a flood zone LEAVE. Seek shelter in a concrete block structure away from the coast and/or flood zones. As much as I love hurricanes, I will never forget the nightmare of Aug. 24, 1992 in South Dade. I had hurricane supplies from A to Z. I had more supplies than anyone I knew. Unfortunately, I had not prepared myself mentally. I could never have imagined what I saw. My advice to anyone in the path of a major hurricane is to stay calm. Try to stay focused on your immediate surroundings. Find a safe structure in which to ride out the storm. Seek shelter in a small interior room or closet. Try to bring a mattress with you in case the roof comes off. Don't panic if the roof comes off - if the walls are concrete block, they should remain standing. You would be amazed at how calm it remains inside despite the missing roof. Do not exit the structure when the going gets tough. The storm won't last forever so be patient and calm - things will work out alright. My thoughts are with you.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:45 AM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Ivan heading on schedule, just alittle faster then what was forcasted by the NHC. Ivan should continue with its NNW movement into tomorrow with a more N turn and maybe NNE just a few hours before landfall tomorrow night. I think they will though move up the landfall some. The upper level westerly flow will start to affect Ivan later in the afternoon on weds. This will cause a shift to the NNE and NE after landfall and movement will be under 10mph during the day. Landfall is still projected near Biloxi and the worst weather will be there- Mobile. Winds will be around 120-130mph a Cat 3 but outside of the barrier islands winds will be closer to 100mph on the inner eye wall with gusts higher. I expect a slow movement up to the App mts. It could stall out for a day or 2 before slowly lifting off to the NE later Sunday into Monday. Currently the flow is very weak as the ridge over the bahamas has backed into florida. There is considerable dry air over the Se U.S. and Florida. There is a severe line of TS off the coast of Florida and could move into FT Myers thru the coastal Tampa area by Sunrise. This same band should come up to the Appalachie bay area- Panama City coastal areas near the same time. I expect massive amount of tornados to be spawned in these outerbands and inland as the storm approaches and moves inland. This will continue thru Friday and being sparatic on Sat. Storm surge Im still expecting around 8-10 ft just to the east of the center, especially Mobile Bay-Pensocola areas with lower amounts farther east. West central florida will also recieve up to 4 ft above normal during high tide Weds afternoon. Rain fall amounts should be around 6-12 inches around and east of the center with lesser amounts to the west and east of Panama city where they could get up to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. Expect power outages for extended periods throughout LA to Panama city areas, but to a less degree in NO.
Jeanne continues to look better from earlier this evening. Some dry air to its west is slowly moistening up. Better convection on the S side of her continues to improve. Motion has been roughly 290dg at 5kt over the last 6 hrs. Expect a general W to WNW motion to skim the southern coast of Puerto Rico and possibly coming onshore the NE part of Dominica on Thurs morning. Currently Hurricane warnings are out for Puerto Rico and Jeanne could be upgrade to it sometime during the day Weds. Now its unclear if it will move into Dominican Republic or skimm the north coast,,,,never the less a downgrade to TS status will happen on Thursday unless it moves NW to avoid landfall or skims the island. Hard to pinpoint this right now. Movement should continue to the WNW towards the Turks on Friday into Saturday, and I expect it to regain hurricane status later on Saturday. Right now my 3 day forcast has it just east of the Turks by Friday evening. After that the long range shows 2 possibilities. 1 most models show it moving NNW to east of Grand Bahama by late sunday into monday and stalling out as heights rise to its north with a very strong ridge forcasting to move into the midatlantic states. How strong is the key to the movement next week towards florida,,,w or wnw from there. 2nd possibility is Jeanne stay more s and move just north of Cuba along the coast and south of Abaco and nearing the keys by Monday into Tuesday, it could then move more NW into the extreme SE gulf and threaten the SW coast of florida or continue more W into the S-Central gulf,,,,,,wayyy to early to tell if it even does the 2nd scenerio. Pretty much its a wait and see and first thing is first,,how much interaction with the Dominican Republic is the starter.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:55 AM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Thanks Scottvb,
My thoughts and prayers are with those in Ivan's path of destruction.......

But for those in Central and South Florida, there is never a dull moment this hurricane season.

Please everyone along the central Gulf Coast....be safe.
Get out of harms way.
I'm listening to radio tonight and apparently there are thousands of people who have listened to the warnings and have evacuated to destinations all over from Texas down to Florida and states North too.

My prayers continue.

danielw

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:03 AM

Re: Evacuation Update

I've spent the last hour checking with evacuees from Mobile and the FL Panhandle. Here are their reports.
Pensacola to Hattiesburg,MS. 159 miles-10 hours
Gulfport,MS to Hattiesburg. 60 miles-6 hours.
US 98 from Mobile is bumper to bumper here. US HWY 49 is also bumper to bumper going through Hattiesburg.
I-59 from New Orleans seems to be doing a lot better. I estimated the traffic moving at 45 to 50 mph.
Shelters have been opened in Natchez, Vicksburg and Brandon,MS. Hattiesburg has 2 shelters open. The main one being at the YMCA. On HWY11 just north of I-59 Exit 60.
Don't wait to leave. It's taking a long time to move everyone.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:05 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

I HAVE TO AGREE WITH YOU N.O IS GETTING WAY TO MUCH ATTENTION: THEY HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB AT FREAKING EVERBODY IN N.O FOR NO CAUSE AND PRETTY MUCH (fox news) HAS MADE APPARENT THAT PEOPLE IN GULFPORT MOBILE AND P-COLA ARE NON EXISTENT IN THIS PATH OF THE STORM. THE HURRICANE IS OBVIOUSLY MADE ITS MIND AND IF WATCH A SATTILITE VIEW ITS APPARENT THE NNW WILL CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH RIGHT BELOW MOBILE BAY. ON TOP OF THAT IVE BEEN SAYING SINCE IT WAS DOWN BELOW JAMAICA TO MY DAD THAT IT WOULD HIT AROUND GULF SHORES HAD A FEELING. I MY SELF LIVE IN P-COLA UNFORTUNATELY FROM WHAT IM HEARING I MIGHT BE BETTER OFF WITH A DIRECT HIT THAN BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT........LAST BUT NOT LEAST I SAW A HURRICANE RESEARCH TEAM FROM NHC WITH A DEVICE THAT MEASURES A HURRICANE AND THEY ATTEMPT TO GET AS CLOSE TO THE CENTER AS POSSIBLE AND THEY WERE DRIVING THRU P-COLA AND I HAPPEN TO SEE THEM ON CHANNEL FIVE DEPLOYING THE MACHINE IN GULF SHORES. NOW IM NOT A BUREDEN OF BAD NEWS BUT WHAT DOES THAT HAVE TO SAY?????
read you loud and clear.. fox is hyping N.O. (other networks too) and that's not where the hurricane is going. jefferson co. miss over to baldwin co. alabama will see the worst (there's a little town in there called mobile, by the way), i do wish those areas were getting more attn from the national media, but that's newsies for ya. -HF

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:08 AM

Re:Faster Movement <CORRECTION>

I SAW THE HURRICANE RESEARCH TEAM AND THEY DESCRIBED ON CHANNEL 5 WHAT THEY DO AND WHAT THEY DO WITH THE MACHINE AND THEY ARE DEPLOYING IT IN GULF SHORES. HOPING THE EYE WILL PASS OVER.........

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:13 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

New Orleans is getting major attention because it is below sea level and it has the possibility of massive casualties if people did not heed the warning and evacuate.

I don't Think that Biloxi and Mobile are getting any less attention at least not on any of the sources I'm monitoring.
We al know that P-cola is right there in the right quadrant of the storm as well.

I'm glad N.O. has evacuated. Ivan may very well keep going on a NNW path and not turn North which will take it much closer to the N.O. metro area.
I'm sorry this storm has to hit anyone.
Please stay safe.

BTW, NHC had that same equipment on Fla's east coast during Frances last week. looks like a big radar.

Stay safe.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:14 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Deleted

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:21 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

The website for the hurricane research team is hurricanetrack.com this site also has a video feed from foley alabama its worth checking out. To respond to weather guru yeah i belive the evacuation should be warranted but at the same I do believe mobile is getting lesser attention than it deserves being right in the forcast track i single out fox news especially and i think some people can agree with me. Its like a special person getting special attenion N.O being that special person it might not be in the path of the cone but its drawing attention from mobile and it does form a false since of security in people around mobile that watch these particular news stations giving them the idea thats its heading to N>O whe its not......

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:28 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Trolling a hurricane board on the eve of what could possibly the worst hurricane to hit the Us in years. Grow up. Mike C works too hard to put up with jerks like you. Stop acting like you are 10 years old.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:31 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

Thanks for the link. They actually anchor their Isuzu SUV to the ground. Hopefully they will gather some interesting and useful data.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:38 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

I bring this up because it happened with Georges here in Biloxi.Now the storm is moving a good strong NNW course and 11mph on the 1:00pm #.The 10:00pm # where actually 9mph it's how the NHC does there avg. O.K.That is fine.I am really beginning to doubt the dropsonde data to some degree.The dropsonde's might be good in the future eventually but right now they seem to stink.Frances was N.C. and N.C. till at 36hrs at her current speed and direction Fl. was to take a hit.Then did the NHC go look at the data and admit a problem.I hope Ivan comes in to my E but I think that it is not going to happen,Slidell to Gulfport.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:38 AM

Re:Faster Movement N

Speaking of topic, I couldn't get any more wasteder if I tried. Some old hurricane buds from the 80's forced me to show up at a party tonight. Wow; We ripped it up. Here's hoping I've got some westerly component to track tomorrow and add a little spice to the afternoon.

Steve

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:26 AM

Re: Ivan Remains a Category 4 the Track is Maintained

Everyone who is in Ivan's path, my thoughts and prayers go out to you, please stay safe.

KornR

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:37 AM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

One trick I used for Frances (power out for 6 days). I got a cheap set of yard lights, they are 12 volt and come with 50' of wire and 10 light fixtures. I built strings of them and ran them around diff. areas of the house. Used my trolling motor battery and ran them every nite with same charge on battery. This gave nice lite that was spread around, safe and only cost $20. Made it easier to move around the house. Good luck to all, you are in my thoughts and prayers.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:42 AM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

On another note: FEMA will reimburse you if you purchase a generator but call them first. I even heard they will wire money into your bank account if you can not afford to purchase one. Only after your area is effected they will do this not before. My power just came back on yesterday after Frances. I already have a generator but boy do they come in handy.
Better get some gasoline cans too.

Cathy

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 10:51 AM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Post charley / trances - I was told that FEMA will also pay for chainsaws to clear trees.

dolphinscry

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 11:25 AM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Thoughts and prayers to all.....
Just follow your EOC's advice, use your own common sense and most of all: BE PATIENT!
I definatley learned patience and humility w/ Bonnie, Charley, and Frances.
You will be tested in so many ways, and will also learn so much...about yourself, your neighbors, etc.
Help out others as best you can, and always remember that saftey comes first.
(sorry-- I dont mean to sound as if I am preaching, but I just want to help)
As for lighting suggestions, I also found to be quite cheap and sooo handy, is the solar lighting light fixtures.
Yes, eventually the sun comes out,

and when I ran out of batteries, I found them to be better than oil lamps, candles, etc.---We couldnt and still cant get a generator!---
Anyway, you can find them at JcPenney, Eckerd, home improvement centers......If you have sunshine now, "charge" them now, Also, under a strong light works, too.
So, again, good luck and Godspeed to all.
Lori
PS>
If you cant find plywood, the hard plastic they make those roadside signs out of work well on windows...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 12:54 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Wow John. Welcome back too. I'm sure I don't have to tell you but that's a loooooong time to be without power. Glad all is well.

Tylenol is kicking in and helping me shake off those cobwebs. Though I plan on doing a little drinking today, it's going to be beer and more in moderation than last night

. Today is grey and breezy here. Winds haven't really started picking up yet (sustained 8-10, gusting to 20ish), but I know they will. The first major rainband (of the rainshield) is nearing the entire northern Gulf, but it is still a few hours offshore in most places. To guarantee a piece of that, I'm going to need Ivan to make it a few tenths farther west. Otherwise, we'll just see a few minor bands rotating out (see setup on New Orleans Long Range radar

I'm going to grab a couple more of hours sleep (if possible!!!!!) so I can be ready to face whatever awaits beginning this afternoon. I promise to take pictures of the neighborhood and post them where possible. Please everyone who remains in the path of the storm (from New Orleans to Tallahassee), get some digital photos to post when you are able to get back on line (hopefully sooner than John C).

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 12:58 PM

N.O. live TV feed

hi,

found this on another board. live streaming vid.

http://www.wwltv.com/cgi-bin/bi/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_wwltv&props=livenoad

wm

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:03 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

First off, my prayers are with everyone on the guld coast looking at this monster heading on shore....

Just saw on TWC that the first outerbands of precip are almost on shore...Dr John Nese said that there will probably be tornadoes on the right front quadrant, so the panhandle of Florida alond with far southwest Georgia will be affected.

In New Orleans, pretty much every major airline has ceased operations there including Delta, Air-Tran, and the like...Also, the Associated Press said that they will continue to file stories from NoLa, but they will not be from their office as they have evacuated it.

Here in Atlanta, there was a huge run at Home Depot stores for tarps, batteries and flashlights, and the grocery stores had a big day yesterday too as Atlanta was spooked by Frances and is worried by Ivan with the probable incessant rain and high winds....

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:11 PM

North Turn

It appears the turn to due North has occurred. I would say if you are west of where it is now, you will not receive a direct hit. That said, the storm is starting to look better again and the weather on the west side will be awful as well. For my family in Mobile, it appears they may get lucky enough to be on the west side at this point. It would only need to jog west a little though for the full fury to come into Mobile. I am now going to call for a Baldwin County AL to Pensacola landfall at 145-150 MPH.

alan

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:12 PM

jeanne radar loop

I know everyone is rightfully focused on Ivan, but here is the radar loop for Jeanne.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml :?:

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:13 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

I've stocked up on my bread, milk and eggs....................have you? LOL

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:18 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Oh yeat, stocked up on the food, TP, batteries and water wings....It seems that they think that with this dang thing sitting over NW Georgia for 2-3 days, you could be seeing Noah walking down Peachtree St by Sunday...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:19 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

does appear to be heading north but i think this is on schedule.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:21 PM

Re: jeanne radar loop

Alan, I was thinking the same thing. The mets here in jax are concentrating so much on ivan that they said hardly anything about the one that could actually effect us.

typical -HF

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:24 PM

Linkage

Visual representation of buoys for past 12 hours:

42003
42002
index

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:24 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:27 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

beer ???

YUK

MikeC

(Admin)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:29 PM

Ivan Strength

One thing that Frances did that helped weaken it and kept it weak was that the eye fell apart. Ivan, on the other hand, has kept its core together all this time. Through most of the "negative time" yesterday and last night.

The fact that the eye is still closed, despite the dry air and other normally weakening effects makes me think it wil likely be Category 4 or high 3 at landfall. And the outflow is still strong. Ivan's being stubborn and doesn't want to weaken much, even though the pressure has risen, it hasn't fallen apart where it counts yet... the center.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:33 PM

Re:Faster Movement <CORRECTION>

My company funds the Florida Coastal Monitoring Project that is mentioned here. We also have instrumented houses in the Panhandle and that were hit by Frances and Charlie,,,

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:35 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

Quote:

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!

If you're planning on watching football on cable after the storm, you may be waiting for a while. Here in Punta Gorda we still don't have Comcast back -- 33 days and still waiting.

I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.

Also, because I depend on cable for my internet connection, I have had to switch to dial-up. Wal-Mart (among others) has a free CD that will get you back on-line once your power & phone are restored.

In my area of Punta Gorda that was 10 days after Charley.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:36 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

good morning mike,
do you see anything that would make you vote against the current forecast track? how far east do you think it will go when it makes the predicted ne turn? looks to me they are pretty close to the track as of 8:15 loop
click forecast points..may take a few to load

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:37 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

Well, I'm in Atl so I really don't need a hurricane kit. There are quite a few people here that freak anytime there is iffy weather, though. So, I won't be surprised to see some houses boarded up and I'm sure those people have hurricane kits.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:39 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Not Mike, but I think it goes about 35 miles esat of the forecast. Not far, but it could save Mobile from the worst of the storm.

MikeC

(Admin)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:39 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Not yet, it's about dead on with the NHC's track so far. Don't see any real reason yet to think differently. Although yeah its going to be on of those nervous track PCB is still in the cone of error as is New Orleans. Exact landfall point doesn't mean much for winds and rain, but for storm surge flooding, it means a lot. I lean toward west of mobile, slightly.

dani

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:39 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Yeah, about 35 miles east would save mobile and slam right into pensacola.

There really are no winners regardless of where the storm hits, the eye is 50 miles wide and hurricane winds around 100 miles out and ts winds out 210 miles from that. Everyone in the cone is gonna get walloped, just some worse than others.

so I can't spell...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:40 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

Any thoughts on the disruption Jeanne may encounter while crossing Puerto Rico? What is the terrain like on that island. I'm guessing its not as mountainous as Hispaniola. But not sure about the eastern vs. western side of PR???

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:41 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

SORRY, but that's the way it looks right now. That could change. A wobble left or right could make a big difference at this point.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:43 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

By the way, I didn't mean to imply that football would be the the most important reason to have TV. You'll want to see what has happened around you. You'll need to get information about where help can be found, like FEMA and water and ice and food. Clear Channel radio is wonderful, but we sure missed having a TV.

If you're in the path, please be safe.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:50 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

yes and i agree a jog either way will make a big difference in the surge... thats what has us concerned. waiting for the 10 to come out to go to inlaws or stay here..

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:52 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Nevermind...Latest sat picks show the NNW movement still occurring. Mobile back to the crosshairs.

Also appears to be re-strengthening a little. Will be curious to see next Recon reports. Beleive the pressure may go back down a little.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:54 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

Quote:

I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.

During Frances, my wife and I used our little 8 inch, car-lighter-powered TV to monitor the storm since we lost cable at 11am Saturday followed by power that evening.

It was actually fun getting the kids to bed then sneaking out and taking turns in the minivan (parked right by our front porch). Best investment ever!

St. David

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 01:57 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

radar is great! easier to watch the eye.

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:11 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

It's pretty breezy here in Tally this morning. Don't know if this if due to IVAN or not...just thinking out loud.

I just heard that my uncle is going to wait it out in Pensacola....

He's not far from the coast either. I guess he's a grown man, he can do what he wants.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:23 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

This will be my last post before the storm. Im sitting in Pensacola about 2 miles from the water. Getting very breezy here and the sky is dark with swirling clouds. Very ominous sight. I'm nervous about tonight this will be a first for me. But keep everyone here on the Gulf Coast in your prayers and hope it blows over fast. Bye everyone. Great job keeping the board going through all this. Thanks to everyone.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:29 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Well at least our "Cedar Key & points south" wishcasters have finally gone silent! This storm had a predisposition to move west of all predicted forecast point since it gained hurricane status... we predicted New Orleans was in danger since Ivan passed the Grand Caymans, but nobody believed it.

God speed to those evacuating... especially those headed up I-65. I understand it has been doubled laned northward for the first time ever, and is bumper to bumper.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:31 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

A little hint for those who are in the line of fire today....if the HIRT Team is in your city....then you know what is coming i.e., GULF SHORES & FOLEY, AL. These guys know what they are doing...look at their site...they are the Hurricane version of Tornando chasers in the Midwest:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:31 PM

Re: Linkage

Thanks for the buoy index! I am transfixed on the amount of water and wave action and think that buoy may get even more interesting readings...
About Jeanne..I think the high pressure Ivan is carrrying will force a turn north...my .02

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:33 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Could Ivan be weakening further. The last few IR views show the eyewall breaking up a bit. He certainly will maintain much better than Frances, but hopefully will get down to a 3 before landfall. I wouldn't bet against him though.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:33 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Morning all...just got done reading all the posts I missed from last night...

I'm going to try to be on as long as I can today/tonight, although by tonight anyone in the storm's path BETTER NOT BE ONLINE, unless they have evac'ed far far away. Sounds to me like Drooper is STAYING???

Well, you're all free to make your own choices...leaving your home is probably the hardest decision one can ever make and I just pray for all who decide to ride it out that they took all the advice from those who've been through them before.

Peace for now...

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 PM

Ivan at 11

Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT44 KNHC 151427 ***
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 53
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF
127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE
SURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS. COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT. THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING
OVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH
DATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE
EDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE
MEASUREMENTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I
EXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL
EXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING
THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER
LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 27.3N 88.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 28.9N 88.2W 115 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 31.0N 87.9W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 17/0000Z 32.8N 87.4W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 20/1200Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:37 PM

9:00 am JB

I don't care if they yank my subscription...here's JB's 9:00:

"I think landfall is near Pascagoula Mississippi around 3 am. The blown out of proportion threat to New Orleans can be blown back into proportion now. The storm that would cause the kind of damage that has been alluded to in New Orleans is one with the track of the 1947 hurricane, which this never had. The monster Betsy in 1965 which had winds to 175 mph when it hit just west of the mouth of the Mississippi ( see weatherwise review, Feb 1966 issue for wind field of storm in southeast Louisiana) damaged the city but did not even result in the kind of mayhem that was being alluded to with Ivan. Camille, which hit 60 northeast of the city did not.

I think this will be the worst hurricane in the history of Mobile Alabama though, worse than Frederick in 1979 and one that will do tremendous damage to the bay area and the barrier islands."

I've been saying this since Monday, but when the other's say it too...

I've been so wrong all season...why did I have to get this one right? God I feel so bad for everyone right now...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:39 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Ivan now on 350 heading as per 11 AM discussion. The turn is happening, and, although there is relief that Accuweather was wrong for N.O., that only shifts the devastation east.
I do hope that everyone is out of the path, but if not, don't leave once the storm hits, and even be careful leaving after it seems over. It may not be. Many people have been fooled by the relative calm of the eye.

Another thing I expect after this makes landfall is a very strong convective tail on the right side away from the center. Although I don't know where this will form, it will likely come off of the Gulf, through Fla., and into Ga. Be careful for this, as those convective tails can be quite nasty.

Edit for the accuweather comment:

I don't know that they called for anything west of where it should go, but I remember them saying it would get to 89 or 90 west, which it never did, hence the reason I thought their track was farther west.

SoonerShawn

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:45 PM

Models

I don't think I've ever seen the models want to do so many twists and turns with hurricanes as what I'm seeing them try to do with both Ivan and Jeanne. You talk about models on crack!

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:45 PM

Jeanne at 11

Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT41 KNHC 151437 ***
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
JEANNE MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION THIS
MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRIMARY CONVECTION...AND THE OUTER BANDING HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65
KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. DOPPLER RADAR WINDS
SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55-60 KT. BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT
THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE
TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFDL IS A LEFT OUTLIER...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO TRACK
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE AND CAUSING
SHEAR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS
TO ALMOST INSTANT DISSIPATION. MOST LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE
WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72
HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AFTER
THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION.
PASSAGE OVER PUERTO RICO MAY AT LEAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND IF
JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS ARE OFF
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING PUERTO RICO. EVEN IF IT DOES NOT...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
ALOFT SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR WILL AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.8N 65.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 18.3N 66.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 19.2N 68.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 20.2N 70.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 21.1N 71.9W 65 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 28.0N 77.5W 80 KT

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:46 PM

Re: Models

At 11:00, Ivan still a strong IV, winds 135, gusting to 160...

AmateurJohn

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Please explain to this novice what a convective tail is. Also, please explain what effects one could have on specific areas of Florida. Thanks.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:48 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

One should note that generator reimbursement is NOT guaranteed. The consensus from the people I know in the Palm Beaches / Treasure Coast is that there is no concrete guideline by FEMA as to whether or not they'll reimburse generator purchases, which is rather distressing. What is clear though is that they make the decision primarily on need, with financial standing secondary. Meaning if you need a generator because your shut-in grandmother has a nebulizer she needs running, you can be sure you'll be reimbursed. If you claim need of a generator so you don't miss the ball game, it's a different story of course.

Here's hoping the best for everybody in Ivan's path.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:52 PM

Re: Models

This is fun to watch: lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

cindy

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:54 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Don’t know if this is a love letter or a thank you note-guess its both! Found you guys a few days ago-thank God. Your views on all this have been so incredibly helpful. Mike, you are one awesome guy. Can’t begin to name all the others-amazing how much affection and respect you can develop for people you have never met. Am busy now putting into action some of the ideas posted for dealing with lost power and such (thank you is so inadequate)-went through Fred, dread the aftermath more than the storm. To my friend out by the airport, hang in there-official word is that if you are in a sturdy structure out of flood danger, you should be ok-we are in Cottage Hill just down the road from you and will be here for the duration as will most of our neighbors. May be a rough night, but Im confident all will be well. Gotta get back to work now-will check in later. Prayers to Jason and everyone in harms way and loving gratitude to all!

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 02:58 PM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Quote:

Ivan heading on schedule, just alittle faster then what was forcasted by the NHC. Ivan should continue with its NNW movement into tomorrow with a more N turn and maybe NNE just a few hours before landfall tomorrow night. I think they will though move up the landfall some. The upper level westerly flow will start to affect Ivan later in the afternoon on weds. This will cause a shift to the NNE and NE after landfall and movement will be under 10mph during the day. Landfall is still projected near Biloxi and the worst weather will be there- Mobile. Winds will be around 120-130mph a Cat 3 but outside of the barrier islands winds will be closer to 100mph on the inner eye wall with gusts higher. I expect a slow movement up to the App mts. It could stall out for a day or 2 before slowly lifting off to the NE later Sunday into Monday. Currently the flow is very weak as the ridge over the bahamas has backed into florida. There is considerable dry air over the Se U.S. and Florida. There is a severe line of TS off the coast of Florida and could move into FT Myers thru the coastal Tampa area by Sunrise. This same band should come up to the Appalachie bay area- Panama City coastal areas near the same time. I expect massive amount of tornados to be spawned in these outerbands and inland as the storm approaches and moves inland. This will continue thru Friday and being sparatic on Sat. Storm surge Im still expecting around 8-10 ft just to the east of the center, especially Mobile Bay-Pensocola areas with lower amounts farther east. West central florida will also recieve up to 4 ft above normal during high tide Weds afternoon. Rain fall amounts should be around 6-12 inches around and east of the center with lesser amounts to the west and east of Panama city where they could get up to 6 inches with locally higher amounts. Expect power outages for extended periods throughout LA to Panama city areas, but to a less degree in NO.
Jeanne continues to look better from earlier this evening. Some dry air to its west is slowly moistening up. Better convection on the S side of her continues to improve. Motion has been roughly 290dg at 5kt over the last 6 hrs. Expect a general W to WNW motion to skim the southern coast of Puerto Rico and possibly coming onshore the NE part of Dominica on Thurs morning. Currently Hurricane warnings are out for Puerto Rico and Jeanne could be upgrade to it sometime during the day Weds. Now its unclear if it will move into Dominican Republic or skimm the north coast,,,,never the less a downgrade to TS status will happen on Thursday unless it moves NW to avoid landfall or skims the island. Hard to pinpoint this right now. Movement should continue to the WNW towards the Turks on Friday into Saturday, and I expect it to regain hurricane status later on Saturday. Right now my 3 day forcast has it just east of the Turks by Friday evening. After that the long range shows 2 possibilities. 1 most models show it moving NNW to east of Grand Bahama by late sunday into monday and stalling out as heights rise to its north with a very strong ridge forcasting to move into the midatlantic states. How strong is the key to the movement next week towards florida,,,w or wnw from there. 2nd possibility is Jeanne stay more s and move just north of Cuba along the coast and south of Abaco and nearing the keys by Monday into Tuesday, it could then move more NW into the extreme SE gulf and threaten the SW coast of florida or continue more W into the S-Central gulf,,,,,,wayyy to early to tell if it even does the 2nd scenerio. Pretty much its a wait and see and first thing is first,,how much interaction with the Dominican Republic is the starter.

eulogia

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:00 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Without reading through all the postings...we were reimbursed by FEMA already for our generator. Possibly it might have something to do with how close you were to the eye of the storm (Charley, in our case). We would certainly not qualify if our income were considered. Also, they might consider whether you actually had to do without power and water for a period of time, which we did.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:00 PM

Re: Please read this-it may be long, but I hope worth it.

Note that was from last night, just requoteing the forcasts tracks. Line of storms was from last night near the Tampa area that later on TWC mentioned and NWS but since then moved up northward.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:01 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

I am having a hard time finding a link to best explain a convective tail, and a met could probably answer this better than me. It is very common for landfalling tropical systems to have a tail-like band of convection far from the center, probably due to the interaction with land and transition to an extratropical system.
I can't tell you where one will be, or even if there definitely will be one, but many storms having these. They are narrow bands of heavy thunderstorms and gusty winds, and they occur away from the main bulk of the storm.
Just keep an eye on the radar, and the sky.

If I can find a link, I will post one.

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:01 PM

Re: For those who lose power..

Quote:

Quote:

Speaking of Sunday, don't forget to stock up on your Sunday beer!

I would add to your hurricane kit list -- a small TV with an antenna, preferable one that doesn't use 12 "D" batteries. Even if you have to wait for the power to come back on to use it, it will be better than no TV.

In my area of Punta Gorda that was 10 days after Charley.

Hi all...been lurking here since 2003 (Isabel), and thought I'd add to this... If you get a battery powered TV (or one that uses 12 volt power), consider buying a 12 volt "jumper box", commonly used by auto repair shops. They usually have a 12 volt power outlet (cigar lighter plug), along with an air compressor and light (also useful), and are readily available at most Sam's Clubs, auto parts stores, etc. I used one from my shop through Charley here, (Cape Coral), both during the storm and afterward, and have now added one dedicated for hurricane use only. They typically run between $50-$90 depending on how many extras you want on them. Hope this can help, and you all in the warning area stay safe!

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:02 PM

Re: Models

I think that model is asleep at the wheel

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:04 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

I received my FEMA check for 50.00. There was no reimbursement for a generator, even though I had no power or water for 12 days (I am on well water). So Leetdan is correct, there is no, repeat no guarantees that you will get anything.. Hopefully the people in the Gulf Coast have been deductibles for Windstorm than us in Florida.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:09 PM

Re: Ivan at 11

My prayers go out to everyone in the path of Ivan.
Are you going to start a new string on Jeanne? I am once again in the dreaded CONE! I want to keep an eye out for Her
Thanks all

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:10 PM

Re: Models

Actually, that GFDL is a definate possibility. Note how Ivan hangs up and stalls and even backs a little west in the later part of that model. There is a definate possibility of that happening. Not saying it will; but the model is not out to lunch.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:10 PM

Convective Tail...

Like Chief Science Officer Spock, I too am finding it hard to get definitive info on a convective tail...I have seen NWS use the term in their statements...this one is from Dec. 21, 2003:

"ETA IS THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH ITS FCST OF KEEPING THE STREAMS SEPARATED. THE GFS IS EXTREMELY CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS. THEY ALL FCST SHRTWV ENERGY IN THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS TO BEGIN PHASING
DURG THE LATER HALF OF THE PD. HPC QPF IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONVECTIVE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO AR AND LA."

Were I to make an 'educated guess' I would think the convective tail is the tail end of the "comma" seen in many low pressure systems...I'll try to find out a more definitive answer...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:17 PM

Spock...

>>Accuweather was wrong for N.O

Actually Accuweather (or at least Bastardi) was right all along. He said last week that Ivan's threat was to the western edge of guidance from the Mouth to Apalachacola. It was all posted here and can be reviewed. Bastardi said he thought it would get to 88 or 89 (small chance for 90). Ivan is currently at 88W and if it can squeeze any more western component with the 350 heading, it could get over as far as 88.3 (18ish miles farther west). Extreme case now would be 88.7ish. Everyone else was wrong - from the NHC to most of the best forecasters on CFHC and S2k that I turn to for guidance. I got lucky with this one. I had a Moss Point to Seaside hit from last Wed or Thurs. I liked it at weak Cat 4 or strong Cat 3. Sometimes we hit, sometimes we miss. But here's where I don't have a clue - What happens over the next week wtih Jeanne and with Ivan? There are a plethora of models disagreeing on what's going to happen. Does Ivan sit for 2-5 days in the Southern Appilachains? Bastardi seems to think 'epic' flooding of up to 2 feet in some areas. That's insane. Those areas have been inundated this year which is all verified by the Drought Index (currently not showing any yellows, browns or reds east of the MS).

US Drought Monitor

Some of the models return Ivan to the Gulf of Mexico as a closed area of circulation. Compounding everything is Jeanne's anticipated western bend later in her forecast. She looks like she's getting formidable on Puerto Rico Radar Hopefully Luis is fairing well (appears to be a flood threat).

So some of the models see development off the Carolinas and FL/Gulf. Which one is Jeanne and which one is Ivan or is there a homebrew pending if Ivan cuts up much farther west (say toward the Great Lakes?). In the Wake of Ivan's landfall, there will be plenty to sort out. Looks like another interesting week in the tropics. Good luck and prayers to all.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:17 PM

Re: Models

Agree.
This thing certainly has an aversion to land.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:20 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Jeanne making landfall 20 miles east of Ponce, Puerto Rico. Winds near 70mph and rainfall amounts up to 6 inches can be expected with amounts up to 1 foot in the mountains. A general wnw across the southern then western part of the island can be expect during the afternoon today exiting the NW coast later this evening. Could weaken down to near 60mph as of 5pm unless it stays just s of track.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:21 PM

Re: Spock...

I stand corrected......but I saw that 90 west thing several times, and that is why it stuck in my mind.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:21 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

your right steve,,but not before my forcast of Biloxi-Mobile 6 hours before him,,,,,hehehehee.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:23 PM

Ivan track & Karl?

Ivan is tracking EXACTLY as SSD is forecasting...(click forecasts points) in this WV loop.

Invest 91L up...T#s only 1.0/1.0 so far but will need to be watched...somewhere around 10N/26W.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:26 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Using only the English language, one would imagine that a convective tail is the tail end of the front - specifically an area with large amounts of convection.

YMMV, SPSFD

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:27 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

lol. You do a great job Scott and hit many storms. But you need to loosen up that tie and take some earlier wild guesses and gut feelings. Ivan had the look of an AL/MS storm since it took the path west of the Cuban tip.

Spock,

New Orleans is on 90 and that's why it's been a possibility, though a western outlier. Joe had it brushing or hitting lower Plaquemines Parish/Mouth of the River (something most of usnever think of as a hit because there is always somewhere farther north thereafter). He thought South Mississippi, and he's probably going to be right (though my guess is that Ivan will be coming in near Moss Point/Pascagoula).

It can't be emphasized enough how bad things could get for Mobile, AL. Phil quoted Joe's 9 update, but the videos yesterday and today really hammered the point home. You guys in south Mobile and South Baldwin Counties (as well as Escambia Co. FL and Jackson Co. MS are in for the worst trouble.)

Steve

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:28 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

It does look like a cold frontal feature, but it occurs when systems are still tropical in nature.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:30 PM

C'mon we ALL know who nailed this storm first

let's just hope his boat survives.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:32 PM

Frank P - riding it out...

After some serious soul searching I've decide to ride out the storm in Biloxi... wife has evacuated to the MS Power Plant to support work operations as well as ride the storm out...

I feel very confident that I will remain on the west side of the storm, which was so critical to me, and I really like the fact that the NHC is real confident on the Mobile scenario, as well as Biloxi is on the far extreme on the west side of the cone right now... as Phil said, this could be the worst disaster in Mobile history... Fredrick was bad, this has the potential to be worse... Fredrick was not that bad for us in BIloxi... bad, but not that bad...

If for any reason he shifts more to the left, and gets close to 88.5 longitiude, I'll leave my house and go to my neighbors RV dealership on Hwy 49 near I-10.... will monitor this very closely for sure

Leaving ones home is a tough decision as I'm sure you all know... I think my decision is sound..... and well thought out... I'll try to post conditions in Biloxi, but that will be limited to how long I have access to my hard line... do have about 10 hours of laptap battery capability... I have never been more prepared for a hurricane in my life... and I can thank the members of this board for contributing to my readiness...

Please keep your prayers for those in harm's way

Frank P

Storm Cooper

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:33 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

You got it Frank P, hang in there!

Coop

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:35 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank P...

godspeed...you contribute so much to this site...hope the nhc is correct. Keep us updated on the conditions...you getting any TS winds yet?

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:36 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Actually steve, Basardi at first said the current area while some of us were thinking western florida with the NHC. Then Basardi said the same about western florida. You said from St. Marks, Fl - somewhere ( I dont recall). Now after the jog south of Jamaica, Phil asked me last Saturday what would be a good guess on a florida impact, I said with the data I recieved I would guess Biloxi MS. At that moment Basardi and NHC were forcasting Tampa N to Panama City. Later the next morning Basardi was scolding himself by going back on his original forecast and went in lines of what I was seeing while the NHC kept adjusting theyre forecast to then Pensacola- Cedar key. You also then adjusted with Basardi on your current area landfall ( which is good steve) I mean that was still 4 days out. But to say most of the pros on here were wrong is kinda not true. Im not a pro, I just have a deg. Clark is still in school, and Jason also didnt say a exact point as it still wasnt known to the exact path it would take. Maybe yeah I should loosen up my tie, if you take your shower and cool off,,hehehee.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:37 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank...you're a rebel! j/k Good luck...looks like it will go slightly east of there...hope you take some digital photos for the family photo abulm...think you will get the western eyewall?

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

I understand as I also did not leave my home as my wife had to work the A Team as a nurse when Frances came. But amply supply your safe room where you ought to be and listen in on your weather channel and stay safe and only evacuate if you really need to!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

thanks coop.... one more thing...

anyone see anything of a hint of this thing going more left, even if you're not sure, please post and provide your rationale... I will depend on your experise gang to help me make sure I am doing the right thing.... I feel I have at least 4-6 more hours or so before it might get to bad to evacuate... so any input you have will be greatly appreciated...

I have been so busy with preps I have had little time to track... you''d think that' s all I'd do, but its been the least thing I done.... just got thru securing the top of my fireplace with rope to prevent it from blowing off...

thanks

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:41 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

scott didnt you say last week florida was the target?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:42 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Good luck and stay safe. I presume by your confidence you live in a secure building -- I was far more worried for my safety when I rode out CAT1 Irene's eye in a 40-yr-old two-story wood frame building than when I was in a much newer CBS home for CAT2 Frances...

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:44 PM

Scottsvbs 'cast

I busted scott on Sat. and a number of users asked me to back off...so I did and I asked scott to make a best guess...he said Biloxi...that's a friggin five-day forecast if I ever saw one.

BTW...last week EVERYONE was saying Florida...why do you think Tampa was so freaked for so long.

Tip o'the cap to scott on this one!

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:48 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Ivan radar
Jeanne radar

Jeanne is looking more like a hurricane with each passing hour on radar

also, there is 91L out by Africa, which could be a TD in a few days

As for Ivan, it looks like it could take a similar track to the 1906 hurricane or Frederic in 1979 near Mobile Bay

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:49 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Justin, I think I might get the extreme western edge of the eye wall,it will not be as bad as the eastern part for sure, my only concern is from trees, of which my house is surrounded, by the ones that could do the catastrophic damage, the two 500 year old oak trees in the front yard would fall towards the south, and not on my house... the other trees would damage the house but not destroy it...

tides are running about 2-3 feet above normal right now, the water is quite slick but there are these cool 2-3 feet waves breaking, almost surfable for you surfing freaks... and that is something you DO NOT see to often on the Biloxi beach...

Phil, no wind to speak of yet, maybe some gusts to 20 max out of the NE....

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:50 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Hey Rabbit,

Can you work the dreaded "Rabbit Voodoo Hex" [tm by HF] on Ivan...knock him down a few catagories? Thanks!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:51 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank, We'll be praying for you. I do believe he has shifted a hair left on his track according to the latest vis loop. The big easy will be close to the western eyewall.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:52 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

I said Florida looks like a good target yes, but also said I didnt know if it was going to hit, afterall it was 7 days ago. Last saturday I made a guess on a 5 day landfall of Biloxi. I feel 5 days out is just a good guess, 3 days out is a forecast.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:55 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

leedan, my house survived Camille, and without hurricane straps, since it has been totally remodeled, and I have triple redundance of hurricand straps and clips on every joice and rafter.... also rewrapped my entire house with an addition layer plywood over the exterior, my house is very solid... the wind will not take it down, I'm very confident of that, but the oak trees in the front could cause considerable damage and violate the structural integrity of the house, with the north wind, that concern is dimished somewhat

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:55 PM

Re: Scottsvbs 'cast

Just messin scott! Who didnt say fl?

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:56 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Ty phil,, I try my best,, and yeah my call for Biloxi was a good guess cause it was 5 days out. A real forecast that Mets like todo is no more then 3 days out....4-5 days are just too hard to forecast as alot can happen. But as of Monday it turned into 3 day forecast and I didnt see anything that could of changed it. I tried to think of possible solutions for a farther east path to w-central florida,,, but I didnt think theyre was going to be the right set up for the turn...so I kept saying Biloxi and if i was wrong by more then 50 miles each side of there,,then it would been a bad forecast. So far,,It still looks on. Hard point will be of Jeanee and how she interacts with Dominica.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:56 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Sorry Scott

. I had it Moss Point to Seaside (remember, I try to use more obscure cities than everyone else does). When the TPC had a Big Bend hit, I noted the compromise was Blue Mt. Beach to Seaside, but I never called for that. The same post said:

I had it from Moss Point to Seaside. When the models clustered around Port Charlotte again yesterday, I presented it. But I'm sticking with what I went with to begin with even if I end up too far west.

Here's the call from Thursday:

In my world, I'm not thinking of Ivan as a direct threat to New Orleans. However, many locals will recall recent hurricanes that went in east of here (Opal in 1995 and Georges in 1998) and their impacts on the city. In the case of Opal, we had 40+mph winds coming right off of Lake Pontchartrain as the center moved inland in WFL. We got a very dry flow from the storm. Georges was much closer (landfall near Pascagoula/Moss Point) and the majority of fishing camps on the southshore of Lake Pontchartrain were destroyed (along with Brunnings Seafood Restaurant). Camps in the Rigolets also sustained heavy damage. I've got a feeling that if Ivan does indeed pass south of Jamaica, it's probably headed for a MS/AL/Escambia Co., FL landfall. It's far too early to say at what strength it will hit because 1) we don't know what interactions with land await, and 2) most Cat 5's can't maintain quite that intensity level for any lengthy duration of time (5 days). But if nothing else, it appears that our 4th landfalling US hurricane of the year is almost inevitable as well as our 3rd Gulf landfall and possibly 4th FL landfall of the season is in the offing. While no one is out of the woods yet, for anyone east of New Orleans, and Slidell to Panama City specifically, I'd be making my preparations before the crunch on Saturday and Sunday. If the CMC verifies (allegedly the best performing model on this storm so far, and the 12z likes an AL/FL solution), then you eastern Gulf Coast residents and business owners are in for trouble.

It was posted on another board. But I'm taking my props and dishing you a few as well. Good job.

Steve

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:58 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

thanks Steve, I need to watch that and see if it continues... I don't have much margin for error right now....

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:58 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Hope you stay safe over there steve.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:58 PM

models

AVN takes Jeanne to the east of the Bahamas at 6 days, and develops 91L to a Cat II or III hurricane, out near 40W

CMC takes Jeanne into the Keys at 5 days and near Panama CIty at 6 days, and develops 91L into a hurricane, also keeping it far to the east

GFDL has Jeanne taking a track similar but north of Georges in 1998, and hitting Miami in 5 days as a strong Cat II; takes 91L to the NW and NNW as a Cat I

NOGAPS takes Jeanne on a track similar to Dennis in 1999, including the stalling off of NC, in 6 days; it does not develop 91L, but shows something behind it

UKMET develops 91L and takes it NW, but it takes Ivan inland, moves it back out into the Gulf, has Jeanne rotating around it, getting near NC, and moving SW

Strange UKMET forecast

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:58 PM

Re: Convective Tail...

Deleted by moderator

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 03:59 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

You better watch real close. Ivan seems to have jogged a bit west in the past hour. Looks to be west of Mobile bay now.

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:00 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

I am in Maryland listening to steaming audio of WPMI in Mobile. The uninformed host of this radio station talk show is having a running discussion with callers about closing or not closing windows in your home for the approach of Ivan. He says the response is about 50/50.

I believe the correct answer is to close windows, but I have not yet found an official source for this information.
Can anyone help?

It is unbelievable the number of people who calling into this talk show who don't seem to have a clue what to do!

Thanks,

Bob

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:02 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Good to hear

The codes were completely overhauled down here after Andrew, and frankly I'm amazed just how much of a difference they make. You hear the older buildings shifting and creaking around you, but in a newer building you can barely even hear it, nevermind feel it.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:05 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

re the streaming audio from Mobile...

Ya got a link to it you can post?

I would think that for anyone who hasn't boarded up their windows it's not going to matter...they'll be open one way or another.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:06 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

CLOSED!

What point is there in shuttering your house otherwise? The point is to isolate the things (most importantly, the people) inside the house from the wind and elements. Opening the windows is counter-intuitive, not to mention dangerous.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:07 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

jth, watching like a hawk down here... good news bp now 940 mb.... boy, that's a lot better than the 910 mb this thing had at one time.... max flight level winds down a little too..

RABBIT, get your butt in gear and weaken this damn thing right now.....

looks like I might not get hurricane force winds till about 5-6 tonight, so I still have some time to monitor for the west trends....

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:09 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

"All of the doors and windows should be closed (and shuttered) throughout the duration of the hurricane."

Quoted from the NHC FAQ

There is a lot of information in the NHC FAQ, some of it interesting and a little humorous (like the methods thought of to try and destroy hurricanes). Worthwhile reading for anyone.

Bill

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:09 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

I guess I really didnt pay close attention on how to spell his name,,,sorry.

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:11 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

anyone think the UKMET scenario is possible?
has anything like that really happened anytime recently, or at all?

BTW, I am forecasting Jeanne to miss the state by 30-50 miles, and Ivan appears, if it stays on its current track, that it will hit just west of Dauphin Island

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:12 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank you have about 50-60 miles of error based on the current forecast track that brings the storm into Mobile Bay...at least that's what is says on my map program on computer....if that verifies you will get the western eyewall.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:12 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

good luck Frank, and stay in a safe place. I am praying for all those in Ivan's path every day.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:13 PM

RABBIT!

Think we're concentrating on Ivan for now...can you work that Rabbit Voodoo Hex for Frank?

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:14 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

No idea Rabbit, that's a downright zany track.

I can't remember the last time two cyclones directly interacted with / fed into each other, my guess would be during the rush of storms in '98. It'd be fascinating to watch how the convective remnants of Ivan interact with the convection and outflow of Jeanne.

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:17 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

glad to see the bp going up !! Maybe that will help my bp (blood pressure) to go down. Looks like me and the idiot are staying put. I'm as prepared as we can get. Eating what will prob. be my last warm meal, and then have to make a quick rescue run to get a rabbit in a cage out of someone's yard since they left it there. Wind picking up here -- gusting maybe up to 20mph; no rain at my house yet. Here's a link to our local radar and the eye is clearly seen. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none Rain bands should be here within the hour.
I'll keep y'all posted as I can !

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:18 PM

Re: RABBIT!

Do you really want me to say much about Ivan? It changes course every time I do
I told everyone it would hit Trinidad--It hit Grenada
I told everyone it would move west into South America--it bounced north
I told everyone it would hit Jamaica--it detoured south
I told everyone it would continue west into the Yucatan--it turned towards Cuba
I told everyone it would move west and hit the Isle of Youth or go to the east--it veered to the west again
I told everyone it would hit Louisiana--it turned north again
I told everyone it would hit Pensacola--it again turned west
I said a few minutes ago that it would hit Mobile Bay--as My earlier post said, now it might go west of there

What i say seems to change the hurricane to the opposite direction or strenght
Cat 5 at landfall
lets see if it can weaken now

Kdubs

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:18 PM

Keep your windows closed

I agree with you leetdan. Keep your windows CLOSED.

A couple examples of why...

1) During Charley, a friend of mine had his windows open to "equalize the pressure " between the inside and outside of his home. The result = the wind made the pressure so great inside the home, it had leverage to lift his roof off. It came back down in the same place, but now sits detached from the frame of his home. The walls are covered in mold and the drywall is rotting. He has been forced to move to another property. His home will have to be completely remodeled after having the roof reattached.

2) During Frances, my father went outside to video the effects of the wind. He left the front door open and a gust of wind came in, went around two 90deg turns in the hallway and sent two ceiling light fixtures smashing to the ground. We are still picking up glass off the floor.

Having your windows can be extremely dangerous.

Be safe...

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:18 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

I didn't phrase that correctly....Biloxi is about 51 miles directly west of the center of Mobile Bay (where the storm is projected to go). At 11am the eye was 50NM...hmm.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:19 PM

mbfly

>>> then have to make a quick rescue run to get a rabbit in a cage out of someone's yard since they left it there

Nah...not gonna go there.

Be safe mbf; will pray even harder now knowing that you're staying...

rhendryx

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:20 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Thanks. BillD, that's what I was looking for. I have emailed and faxed information and weblink to them.

Best to all,

Bob

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:21 PM

Extreme close up

Full size available at www.skeetobite.com

Ormond Suzie

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:21 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Quote:

I am in Maryland listening to steaming audio of WPMI in Mobile. The uninformed host of this radio station talk show is having a running discussion with callers about closing or not closing windows in your home for the approach of Ivan. He says the response is about 50/50.

I believe the correct answer is to close windows, but I have not yet found an official source for this information.
Can anyone help?

It is unbelievable the number of people who calling into this talk show who don't seem to have a clue what to do!

Thanks,

Bob

Well, here's what NOAA has to say about open windows during a tornado (just do a google search under <myth hurricane OR tornado "open windows"> to get 314 sites that debunk the myth):

Q. Should I open my windows before a tornado approaches?

A. It's a myth that open windows equalize pressure and minimize damage when a tornado strikes. Opening windows allows damaging winds to enter the structure. Leave the windows alone and immediately go to a safe place.

Ken-SRQ

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:22 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Bob,

http://www.fema.gov/rrr/talkdiz/hurricane.shtm

Check the above link from FEMA under "Protect your property".

The key is to keep the wind out of the house, which means all windows and doors should be closed. This will keep your roof on which in turn will usually allow the structure to stand in all but Cat V storms.

The old wives tale about leaving a window open to equalize the pressure doesn't even make sense when you stop and think about it. Houses are not sealed to begin with - think about all of the electrical outlets that are open to the inside wallspace, which vents to the attic and out the soffits.

Protect the envelope of your house - that is what they need to be preaching.

Ken

Kdubs

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:25 PM

Re: Keep your windows closed

I forgot to add this to my previous post.

I read in the Orlando Sentinel that a local Floridian was actively seeking for a large jetliner to charter so he could drop a large amount of kitty litter into Ivan and suck up the moisture.

Thought that was an interesting approach (not necessarily effective, but definitely creative).

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:25 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

Call me crazy but the constant downpour of rain would be enough to make me keep my windows shut.

St. David

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:28 PM

Re: Ivan Strength

you know what sucks? my car window jus broke and its stuck down! GREAT! time to put a bag over it and hope the best!

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:28 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

ah, the Fuiji-wahra effect. (spelling is probably way off)

I remember some years ago it happened in the Pacific, as one storm tried to rotate around the other. In the Atlantic, I remember Isis being destroyed by the outflow of a close upstream system.
There was another instance in the last 10 years I think there were actually 5 classified systems in the Atlantic at the same time, but all were well-spaced.
As crazy as this year has been, the unusual is becoming the usual.

One note on post-landfall: I hope the forecast of this system stalling does not verify because it will turn into a situation like Allison. Wherever that sits, with the upslope flow, this can be devastating to many areas, in all different ways. The latest GFS does move it a little more, but still keeps it stuck.

Maggie'sMom

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:29 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Hey guys. I am a regular reader-newly registered poster. I live in Frank P's neck of the woods - Pascagoula, MS. I am here in Montgomery, AL with family to wait for Ivan's arrival. Any information about the Gulf Coast would be greatly appreciated. We're trying to stay informed. I feel like I'm two thousand miles away instead of two hundred. Thanks

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:33 PM

Re: Keep your windows closed

I always get a kick out of those stories... Prior to Frances rolling through here, this one nut kept calling the local radio station covering the storm, ranting and raving about how the technology exists to seed hurricanes and weaken/dissipate them.

Heh.

Fist of all, a major hurricane consumes about 8000 megatons of thermal energy in one day. The world's complete nuclear arsenal, on the other hand, is about 5000 megatons. If this energy isn't dissipated by the hurricane, it's only going to remain for the next storm (this would be a monopoly of hellish magnitude).

The government actually experimented with hurricane seeding from the 60s through the 80s (project STORMFURY), with no consistent results. There's a local company here (google for Dyno Gel or something like that) that claims to be able to dissipate cumulus clouds with a diaper/kittylitter type material, but they don't mention that it would take hundreds of fully-loaded C5's (the largest military transport in the Air Force) running non-stop sorties to even put a dent in a hurricane.

The idea that you can alter one of nature's strongest forces, stronger than all of man's weaponry, by sprinkling something on it is just laughable.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:35 PM

Fujiwhara

Storms involved in the Fujiwhara effect are rotating around one another as if they had locked arms and were square dancing. Rather than each storm spinning about the other, they are actually moving about a central point between them, as if both were tied to the same post and each swung around it separately of the other.

To complete the effect, the entire system - the two storms and the central point between them - must move off in a single direction while the storms continue spinning about each other.

Fujiwhara looked closely at many different types of vortices to see how they acted when they came close to each other. He noted that if two vortices were equal in size and strength and spun in the same direction (like the hands of a clock but backwards, or "counter-clockwise"), they would move about each other as described above. But he also noticed other movements.

If two vortices spinning counter-clockwise approached and one of the vortices was larger than the other, they would begin spinning around each other for a short time with the larger one dominating. Eventually the smaller of the two vortices would get caught in the circulation of the larger one and be gobbled up.

If the similar vortices spun in opposite directions, one clockwise, one counter-clockwise, they would push each other away if they got too close. Other scientists since 1921 studied many cases where this happened in the atmosphere. Tropical cyclones called hurricanes or typhoons are perfect examples. This is where the term "Fujiwhara effect" gets used most often.

And there you go.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:35 PM

Re: IVAN

FOR THOSE WHO THINK IVAN IS GOING TO N.O NEEDS TO DROP IT. IT ISNT GOING ANYWHERE NEAR THERE EVEN THOUGH I WISH IT WOULD I LIVE IN P-COLA AND WE ARE ABOUT TO GET THE (expletive deleted)KICKED OUT OF US.. SO IM TIRED OF PEOPLE SAYING N.O IS IN THE CONE OF ERROR N.O ISNT GETTING CRAP SO GET OFF THE IDEA ITS GOING THERE ITS PRETTY OBVIOUS LIKE ANDREW WAS WHEN IT HIT SOUTH FLORIDA ITS HEADING FOR MOBILE AND THERE IS NOTHING TO CHANGE THAT.......MY PRAYERS ARE WITH EVERBODY IN THE P-COLA MOBILE AREA...HOPE FOR THE BEST PREPARE FOR THE WORST MY POWER IS GOING OUT SO ILL CHAT LATER

cindy

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:38 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Referenced you in my first post this am but didnt have time to look up your name (not good at this and like you kinda frazzled)-anyway, Im not far from you so stay in touch and be safe!

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank P-- I don't often make personal posts--but you've been around about as long as this site as I recall, and I've always had a great deal of respect for your opinions.

Be safe! And remember, if the situation warrants a change in tactics -- your most important decisions are the ones you make during the storm. I think you know that, but for any lurkers that are staying in the area who are as prepared as they can be, make very sound decisions both during and after the storm. You may be ready now, but God only knows what Ivan will throw at you in the next few hours.

Clyde W--who was very surprised by what Charley gave us in Orlando

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Maggie's Mom...

I think Pascagoula's situation wil be similar to what happened during Fredrick, or perhaps even a little worse, depending on final track..... I also think Pascagoula has a 50/50 change of getting the brunt of the eye..... who knows.. any bobble at the last minute will be critical for my good neighbors to the east....

watching the radar loop like a madman.... last frame sure hints of a little, tiny, microscopic bobble/jog to the NNNNE.... I sure hope so... wind gusts along the coast upper twenties and low thirties at the moment

I think we have a real good chance for another I storm to be retired... I sure hope I'm wrong

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:40 PM

Re: IVAN

Settle down pal, The cone of error is just that -- the area that the hurricane could feasibly deviate from the forecast and strike. Ivan will be felt in NO, and it will be felt in Pensacola, no matter what. Where the exact center passes is trivial, it's the general eyewall region that needs to be focused on.

Oh, and I think your shift key is stuck.

Partial delete by moderator

mom2als

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:40 PM

Re: For those who lose power...please read and print

Lake Toho-Kiss, you need to try again with fema. My sister's co worker got a check for $1200 last week. The husband had found out if he bought both a generator and chain saw he would be reimbursed. They were only without power for a few days and had NO damage at all,nor have any trees on their property to even use a chain saw on! This is a big sore spot with me since I (as with so many others in my development) got so much damage from Charley and more from Frances and got a big fat $0 from fema(supposedly since we havent heard from our insurance companies yet.) Meanwhile I've already paid for 2 temp roof jobs totally $1100, after the couple hundred $ worth of plastic etc, didnt hold up,not too mention the hotel costs for the first 2 weeks.
Good luck!

Grasshopper

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:41 PM

Re: Concerned about flooding..

Hello All...

I live in the tampa bay area (palm harbor), I am right on the gulf and my back yard is currently flooded. High tide is in about 30 min should the water rise any higher after that?

Good luck to all up north. Looks like irs gonna be a rough one. Saty safe and godspeed.

Thank You

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:43 PM

Re: IVAN

Quote:

FOR THOSE WHO THINK IVAN IS GOING TO N.O NEEDS TO DROP IT. IT ISNT GOING ANYWHERE NEAR THERE....

Hmmm... looks "near there" to me. That red line is exactly 45 miles from downtown N.O.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:43 PM

Hurricanes are Necessary

One thing we need to remember is that the rainfall that comes with hurricanes is necessary to replenish our drinking water supplies. Central Florida recently came out of a drought cycle (and now is in a flood cycle -post Frances) and all during the drought water managers kept saying that Florida desperately needed the rains associated with several big hurricanes to bring ground water supplies back to normal levels.

All I can say about trying to stop hurricanes is that it is "not nice to fool mother nature". Hurricanes, and unfortunately their accompanying destruction, are a necessary component to sustaining life as we know it. Fortunately we have the technology today to predict with some degree of certainty the location of landfall and measures can be taken to prevent the loss of life (i.e., evacuate!). We also have building codes that make our structures better withstand hurricanes, providing better protection of property.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:44 PM

Re: Fujiwhara

great post.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:47 PM

Re: Hurricanes are Necessary

Extra drinking water and the like is needed especially since this beautiful state is being torn up daily for new developments and subdivisions.

We are still on water rationing for our yards in Titusville.

BeachBum

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:50 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

For local info try TV stations:
WKRG
WPMI

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:51 PM

Re: Hurricanes are Necessary

good points, and I would like to add that as nasty and terrible as they are, hurricanes are an important mechanism for transporting the excess heat from the tropics, towards the poles, where this is a deficit of heat. I think we all wish that could be accomplished without the devastation, but keeping them all as fish storms.

Your point on the drought Fla. was in is also very valid, as many times, hurricanes are the reason droughts get broken.
My problem with trying to alter mother nature and the atmosphere is that we really have no idea what other problems that could cause. For all we know, that can create more severe problems elsewhere.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:52 PM

Re: IVAN

Hey Chuck. There hasn't been a single person on this thread saying it's going ot New Orleans - including those we'd suspect most - the New Orleanians. Just had a gust into 30 and the first rains from Ivan are in process. It's a light shower, but it's great to see. I'm enjoying an Abita Purple Haze hair of the dog at the moment and wish you all well.

FrankP - last few visibles continue the 350 degree motion. I've NEVER seen a storm that jogs north as much return to NNW for such an extended period of time. I know it's been a wobbling track for the last few days, but at some point around , I really thought we'd see a NNE shunt. Were the track to continue, the latest SSD visible makes landfall appear likely in either Harrison or Jackson County, Mississippi (or western Mobile Co., AL). I've got the eye at 88.19 which puts it near the westermost plot of the last TPC projection (88.2).

Just had a couple of gusts close to 30-33mph so that tells me it's time to tie up the loose ends. I have to fill the bathtubs in case the water gets fouled here.

Scotts,

Thanks for the well wishes bra. I'm going to do my best, but I don't think it will be all that bad here. Since I'm so close to the western fringe of the storm, it's tough to say what I'm going to get. Gut call would be a gust or two into the 50's or 60's and maybe 2" of rain. If we get under the rain-shield, it could be as much as 4 or 5" with gusts into the low 70's. Gotta cross those t's all. See you after a bit.

Steve

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 04:59 PM

Re: Hurricanes are Necessary

Bingo.

We all remember the pronounced effects of El Niño that were felt around the world - this of course was a deviation of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean by only a few degrees. Do we really want to see what happens when the Atlantic is artificially heated by our human machinations?

Jack Love

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:00 PM

Just signed up

I've been monitoring this list now for the better part of seven days and I must say I am impressed by the knowledge of this board. I have even turned off the TV.

The Ivan-Jeanne interaction fascinates me. Though the centers of the two systems are still far apart (1000 miles?), the beginnings of upper atmosphere conjunction must be already underway. The UXMET model (link posted above) shows a very strange reaction with the remnants of Ivan being thrown back to the SW. Fascinating. But Jeanne has some catching up to do, and it seems all of the systems are moving slowly this year.

I hope all of our friends on the Gulf Coast are prepared by now. My thoughts and prayers go out to you.

This morning's Washington Post published a front-page story on the devestating effects of a direct strike on New Orleans. You can read the story on the paper's website - registration required, unfortunately - but here is a link and the first few paragraphs of the article.

WashPost artcile on NO Strike

Quote:

Awaiting Ivan in the Big Uneasy
New Orleans Girds For Major Damage

By Michael Grunwald and Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 15, 2004; Page A01

NEW ORLEANS, Sept. 14 -- Walter Maestri, an emergency manager here in America's most vulnerable metropolitan area, has 10,000 body bags ready in case a major hurricane ever hits New Orleans. As Hurricane Ivan's expected path shifted uncomfortably close to this low-lying urban soup bowl Tuesday, Maestri said he might need a lot more.

If a strong Category 4 storm such as Ivan made a direct hit, he warned, 50,000 people could drown, and this city of Mardi Gras and jazz could cease to exist.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:00 PM

Re: Fujiwhara

Quote:

great post.

Thanks - I came across that info during a google search the other day.

I updated the post with two more paragraphs I hadn't grabbed.

Here's a link to the rest of the article.

Article about Fujiwhara in USA Today

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:01 PM

Re: IVAN

last nite i thought of something interesting.. other than bonnie every 3rd storm has hit fla. they have also been big hurricanes what is the name of the l storm??(charley, frances, and now ivan) sure hope this trend doesn't continue)

Ken-SRQ

(Registered User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:01 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank P.,
Looking at the Slidell radar's base velocity display, there are 71 kt winds at 14,000 ft about 50 mile offshore of Biloxi. I believe that those would mix down to about 64 kt at the surface.

Best of luck to you. The only major storm that I have been directly in the path of was Alicia, and this one is much worse.

Ken

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:02 PM

Re: IVAN

Bad time for Ivan to be going thru what looks to be an intensifying phase.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:04 PM

Re: Hurricanes are Necessary

Quote:

Bingo.

We all remember the pronounced effects of El Niño that were felt around the world - this of course was a deviation of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean by only a few degrees. Do we really want to see what happens when the Atlantic is artificially heated by our human machinations?

How would we heat the Atlantic with human machinations?

These storms as furious as they are do serve a useful purpose. I agree that if man comes up with a way to mess with them, it would have other ramifications probably much worse than we can imagine.

I still see a Westward componant in the track so far. THe Northward turn has not completely taken place yet.

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:05 PM

Re: IVAN

Quote:

last nite i thought of something interesting.. other than bonnie every 3rd storm has hit fla. they have also been big hurricanes what is the name of the l storm??(charley, frances, and now ivan) sure hope this trend doesn't continue)

That would mean the future Ms. Hurricane Lisa will be a monster.

(along with Otto and Shary and Walter...)

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:08 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

check you pm's cindy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:08 PM

Re: IVAN

like i said hope the trend doesn't continue

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:10 PM

Jason

Let's remember to keep Jason and his wife in our thoughts and prayers. Jason's wife is near her due date and his family is separated during this storm.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:11 PM

Re: Hurricanes are Necessary

Then we agree

What I'm saying is, if we ever do somehow figure out a way to alter hurricanes, then we also alter how they remove heat from the caribbean waters. Take hurricanes out of the picture, and the result is a warmer Atlantic.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:13 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

thanks Clyde, good advise, and I'm keeping all options open...

Javlin just paid me a visit... first time I've met a CFHC member, what a nice guy he is...

getting our first few drops of rain... tide looks to be 3 feet above normal... wind picking up some, not much...

three of my neighbors staying and riding out the storm, we all plan to look out for each other...

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:15 PM

Re: Jason

They might be better off making their way to a hospital now. I'm not sure whether it's the pressure drop or some other factor, but it seems instinct kicks in when these storms come (the papers reported a HUGE influx in births immediately prior to and during Frances).

Best of luck to them either way.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:15 PM

Re: IVAN

Why does it seem that the eye is still moving nnw? Are they still predicting a turn to the north before landfall?

I just want to thank y'all for a very educating week. Should a hurricane ever come up the Mississippi for a rumble with the show me state, I'll be ready

Seriuosly I will be praying for you folks down south tonight. God Bless

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:16 PM

Re: Jason

i think i heard jason on the news one nite say it was oct. might be wrong but then again we are close to oct. he will be around later i am sure.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:17 PM

Re: Jason

Indeed Skeeter...great graphic BTW...

LR Radar

>>>EYE becoming visible...the fit is hitting the shan now

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:19 PM

Re: Jason

Quote:

Indeed Skeeter...great graphic BTW...

LR Radar

>>>EYE becoming visible...the fit is hitting the shan now

Ouch - looking at the radar loop, it seems to be a hell of lot closer to a path leading straight for NO...

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:22 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Ken, I can handle 70 K winds OK, but looks like things will go bad in a hurry... I just don't want any 135-140 winds.... still monitoring everything, Steve let me know if you think this thing will go past 88.5, that my critical line.... going take perhaps my last hot shower for probably somtime...

the the last VIPER profile looks more encouraging for me... I just got to have the winds out of the north...

Its a lot easier tracking a hurricane as opposed to waiting for one... I have never wishcast as hard as I am doing right now for this to go east of me...

thanks

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:25 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Oh Frank, Javelin (et al in the path)--now is the time to track the wobbles via radar if you can get the loops. The movements there will be more readily apparent than by satellite. Sometimes these wobbles aren't what they appear on satellite--esp. infrared.

I've just pulled up the Mobile long range, and the entire eye is now visible--which should really help you guys with where you end up in the eyewall. Unfortunately, I've just realized that despite my passion for US geography (anyone ever notice that people intersted in weather or always also interested in geography???), I don't exactly know where Biloxi is in relation to the Miss. coastline.

Anyway, extrapolating out the current motion looks to put the eye ashore on the Ala/Miss boarder.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmob.shtml

I'm sorry to say, I think Ivan is going to be very very bad for Mobile....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:25 PM

Re: Jason

Dauphin Island Ala. getting some serious waves...

Didn't someone mention yesterday that Ivan might clip to the left to seek out water; ie, Lake Ponchatrain (sp)?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:27 PM

told u ivan wants to go west

and all the sats and models in the world dont seem to deter him from going where he wants..which seems to be louisianna

javlin

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:27 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank think Steve might be on to something still looks 350 have to see how long this keeps up.I"ll keep in touch.

Lisa NC

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:27 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

try the NO radar. You can see the whole eye. And it seems to be constricting some. Very impressive storm

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:28 PM

Buoys

Check out the buoy to the east of Ivan. Business is picking up.

And the one dead ahead.

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java2/westatl.html

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:29 PM

Re: Jason

Using skeetobite's map (either go to www.skeetobite.com) or check the front page of this thread, you can see where Biloxi, NO, Mobile, et. al. are located

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:33 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Clyde/Jav, watching the loop, does hint of about 350.... not what I want to see but could be bobbling back and forth... will continue to watch... probably have another 2-3 hours before point of no return....

recon will have the best fix on the eye as long range radar does not hit the center, not sure if the mid levels could be leaning to one side or the other....

not looking good right now for MS/AL/NW Fl to say the least...

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:37 PM

Re: Buoys

Thanks FlaRebel, great site.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040

The plot of wind vs. pressure is dramatic, and the wave data at the bottom (30+ swell, 19' wind waves) is downright scary.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

not that its 340 or 350 its that it consistently punches west for just enough to skew off the normal nnw movement progs.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:39 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out...

Frank, I don't want to alarm you but check out this radar from Intellicast...

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:40 PM

Re: Buoys

You're Welcome! Looks like we are getting 40-70 MPH here in Tallahassee from Ivan. I expect alot of trees down.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:44 PM

Re: Keep your windows closed

I had the same situation during Frances. I just cracked open the front door to look out at the storm and the wind came in and rushed up the staircase and blew the attic ceiling door right off. This was only during a Cat. 2 storm. If it had been a Cat. 4 it may have caused the roof to lift. So, the bottom line is even if you are so eager to see out of a shutterred up house, don't open the door during the height of the storm. I only opened it a crack and this happened. Don' t let any air in.

St. David

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:45 PM

Re: Buoys

27.8N 88.2W

Thunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:46 PM

Re: Buoys

Quote:

You're Welcome! Looks like we are getting 40-70 MPH here in Tallahassee from Ivan. I expect alot of trees down.

Where did you get your info? I'm trying to keep my bosses informed.
Thanks,
T

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:48 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

Quote:

not that its 340 or 350 its that it consistently punches west for just enough to skew off the normal nnw movement progs.

Frank P....I am seeing movement to the west in the sat. loops also...it may be getting alot closer to you than the current tracks show. I sure hope not........

(Weather Master)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:52 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

Jeanne appears to be onshore in PR; Ivan is still a Cat IV

(Moderator)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:53 PM

Re: Keep your windows closed

Quote:

I had the same situation during Frances. I just cracked open the front door to look out at the storm and the wind came in and rushed up the staircase and blew the attic ceiling door right off. This was only during a Cat. 2 storm. If it had been a Cat. 4 it may have caused the roof to lift. So, the bottom line is even if you are so eager to see out of a shutterred up house, don't open the door during the height of the storm. I only opened it a crack and this happened. Don' t let any air in.

I have a NW facing front door and a SE facing (go figure) rear door.

I could go out the front door without letting any wind in during Frances, but any attempt to open the rear door would have lots of bad juju coming in. I stuck to the front door as my primary mode of egress when I wanted to be outside during the nastiness.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:54 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

Ok...can someone make this stop now

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:55 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

Also, Ivan looks to be strengthening again. This is getting even worse. I think Joe B may be correct...This could be the worst natural disaster in not only Mobile history, but also, could spread well inland.

Frank I would advise you to get out.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:58 PM

Re: Frank P - riding it out... problem is...

thanks all, monitoring very very close... I'll start packing a few things and be ready in case I decide to bail out...

not a happy camper in MS....

(Weather Guru)

Wed Sep 15 2004 05:58 PM

Re: Keep your windows closed

Heh, we had it similar. The house sheltered the front door on the North and West, and it's recessed so it's not open to the East either. As a result, we were able to safely open that door during the first half Frances. We boarded it up during the eye (since we knew we had a few hours), and opened a door on the opposite side of the house that would now be sheltered. We were extremely careful, and had a backup plan, but that worked out just fine.

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:00 PM

Re: Buoys

Check your PMs.

(User)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:09 PM

Re: Buoys

New thread.
Bill

Mozart

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Sep 15 2004 06:10 PM

Attachment

Re: Buoys

These guys must be nuts. They're still driving around down in Foley, AL.

Hurricane Track Webcam

I attached the pic I was talking about in case they go somewhere else before everyone sees it.