Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:01 AM |
Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
|
7AM Update
From the NHC
THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF
SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100
KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED.
Jeanne is close to hurricane strength...and has continued westward across the Mona Passage.
Midnight (EDT) Update
Ivan now about 50 miles south of Mobile Bay and indeed moving just east of due north - which would make landfall just east of the Bay (and avoid at least some of that flooding). Lets hope so anyway for the sake of those in the Mobile area.
Original Post:
Hurricane Ivan
From NHC at 16/03Z:
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.
At 16/02Z, Hurricane Ivan was about 70 mles south of Mobile, Alabama, moving north at about 10mph. Landfall should be around 05Z near the west point of Mobile Bay with sustained winds of 130mph gusting to at least 160mph. If this landfall point verifies, the backwater flooding in Mobile Bay will be extreme. Expect a storm surge of 16 feet from Mobile to Pensacola with a few spots exceeding 20 feet. From Pensacola to Destin, storm surge of at least 13 feet and from Destin to Mexico Beach the surge should be around 10 feet.
With such a slow moving and powerful storm, hurricane force winds in the area immediately to the east of landfall will prevail for 8 to 10 hours and will extend well inland. For those that are in Ivan's direct path, eye passage wil last about two hours and, except for the storm surge, this is one of the most dangerous timeframes for injury - near darkness, broken glass, weakened structures and downed power lines. Exercise extreme caution should you venture outside during passage of the eye. Ivan will continue a slow north to north northeast movement and may stall out in northern Alabama - producing a significant flood event in the Southeast over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Jeanne
From NHC at 16/03Z
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING WESTWARD TO LA PLATA. A HURRICANE
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM LA PLATA SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA.
AT 11 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM
WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO
DOMINGO.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS.
AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO. ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
JEANNE.
Jeanne departed the northwest tip of Puerto Rico around 16/01Z and almost immediately regained excellent structure and began to develop a weak eye. She should aquire hurricane status tomorrow morning. For the last couple of hours Jeanne has been moving due west , which means an almost certain close encounter with Hispaniola and its high terrain. Jeanne is a very compact storm and I expect her to skirt the coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The GFS 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there). Strong Atlantic high pressure, surging southwestward, should certainly delay any turn to the north, so Jeanne needs to be carefully watched over the next few days.
Invest 91L
Located near 11N 26W at 16/00Z and is still not very well organized, however, slow development seems likely over the next couple of days...and another strong wave is about to exit the coast of west Africa. By next Thursday, its not out of the question that we will all be tracking 'Karl' and 'Lisa'.
ED
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Tallahassee, FL (Panhandle) - Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL - Long Range Radar Loop
New Orleans, LA - Long Range Radar Loop
San Juan, PR - Long Range Radar Loop
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
Those asking for a mailing address for donations should use
Mike Cornelius
804 Omni Blvd
Suite 101
Newport News, VA 23606
Event RelatedLinks
Dauphin Island Updates
Flhurricane Mobile, AL Webcam from Joseph Johnston
Animated Version of the Mobile webcam
Closeup Animated Visible Satellite of Ivan
Anmated Ivan Visible floater Satellite
Mobile Radar
Dauphin Island Weather Station Reports
Police , fire and rescue scanner, and other live video/audio feeds from Gulf Coast locations
Storm Surge Maps for Alabama
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Another Mobile Radar
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Mark Sudduth and Hurricanetrack.com are in Gulf Shores - Hurricanetrack.com HIRT team webcam
Nice color satellite image
Animated Color Ivan Satellite (With NHC Track Overlay)
(Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:07 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Anyone familiar with the Gulf Shores area...water is covering the West Beach Blvd area per WPMI in Mobile.
Since hurricanetrack was on the beach in Gulf Shores, I think we know where our Isuzu is located. (Under aqua...)
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:07 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Minor note: I used to live on the East side of Mobile Bay.. just South of Dog River...
Glad I don't live there now!!!
Correction!!! WEST side... <sigh>.. Dyslexia again...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Thanks for the new threat ED, glad you can give Mike a much needed break...don't want to get off Ivan ATTM, but Jeanne is a knock-knock-knocking on Florida (heaven's) door.
When are we going to catch a break? By that I don't just mean floridians (of which I'm not one, but I left my heart there) but all trackers in general..if that GFS verifies...but that's for another time.
Anyway, be safe all, Ivan means some serious business...if he pulls the vaunted rabbit voodoo hex and backs down to a three at landfall...that's GREAT! I don't see it happening, but then I'm always wrong...so it probably will...
EDIT: I must write new "threat" as often as I write "thread"...damn freudian slip I guess...leaving it up for the hell of it!
Everyone be safe...
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:18 AM |
Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Jeanne could pose a threat to Florida and the Southeast - perhaps on Tuesday. The GFS 18Z run takes Jeanne on a wild ride through South Florida, then west southwestward toward the Yucatan, and then zips her back across the peninsula again - a track that would just about drive Floridians over the edge (at least those that are not already there).
_______________________________________________-
Ok not funny! seriously. My husband runs a hardware store for goodness sake! Do you know what that is like when a hurricane is approaching? And no I don't get a bonus.....
Over the edge is an understatement! darn darn darn!
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:19 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Despite ED.. err... "Eyewall Disfunction", Ivan remains a Gamer...
Eyewall trying to reform, still Mobile Bay bound...
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:21 AM |
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10 pm CDT
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On land observations:
Highest Sustained Winds 54 mph Dauphin Island AL
Highest Wind Gust 76 mph Pensacola NAS FL
Lowest Pressure 29.15" Dauphin Island AL
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:22 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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All time worst evacuation remark.
Quoted from a Biloxi,MS television station. Name removed to protect the ignorant. , retired president of Ingalls Shipbuilding in Pascagoula, sent his wife and their dog to north Mississippi but said he'd remain in his beachfront home unless winds pushed over 130 mph.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:24 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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The last few frames confirm, the eyewall is closed again (though just barely in the southern quadrant). The northern eyewall is still very strong, and nobody has announced indication of windspeed being much lower...
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:24 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Quote:
Despite ED.. err... "Eyewall Disfunction", Ivan remains a Gamer...
Eyewall trying to reform, still Mobile Bay bound...
Dr. Steve Lyons just announced that it appears the the eye is moving further east than Mobile Bay. He currently projects the center of the eye to make landfall around Orange Beach or a little east of that near Pensacola.
That would be good news for Mobile Bay and the flooding situation. However, it could be treacherous for the barrier islands outlining the coast of the Panhandle. We might see more of what happened to North Captiva Island during Charley. It was washed away in the middle and became two islands. I understand some islands west of Dauphin Island had that same occurance in past hurricanes.
The north Gulf Coast needs all our prayers right now...
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:24 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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I don't like the sound of Jeanne out there either. I swear, like Ed said, this year Florida is not going to get a breather of more than 2 weeks until December. Sure doesn't feel like it. If it won't be Jeanne, it'll probably by the Invest, or another yet-unseen wave off Africa, and we haven't even gotten to the "Born in the Gulf" (Bad Springstein rip-off) period yet...
On a slightly off-kilter comedic note, I've been watching the webcam on the HurricaneTrack.com site. For awhile, it was normal. Then the street lights went out. Then a bright blue beam from above illuminated these cars in the parking lot. I was just beginning to feel like it was some sort of UFO beaming someone up when I saw this frame appear. (See attachment) Made me crack up laughing - maybe I finally found an alien! I gotta take a break from studying radar and webcams, the stress is cracking me a little.....
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:25 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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we'vw had a waterspout off the island here; one tornado off Carrabelle, I think another tornado but not sure where. My cable is down, don't get any local channels (JK's is the closest to me at about 75 mi. away) so no television. I have power, phone (thank God, dsl) and about 13" water under the house (on stilts); highest gusts here have been 64, mostly about 40-mph; heavy rain off and on. The waves on the gulf are HUGE and violent,compared to the norm.
I am so rhankful to be just at the edge.
Still a Cat IV?
And I'm on the very eastern edge of the hw....
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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I remember that during Camille Ship Island got cut in two. Those barrier islands really take a hit.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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DPIA1 (Dauphin Island) is dropping pressure like mad. Winds are pretty steep too. Constantly showing winds steady at 61KT (gust 70KT), and the pressure has dropped down to 28.97, and still falling. Storm is wreaking havoc there....
Prayers to all on the AL/FL area....
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:32 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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Quote:
The last few frames confirm, the eyewall is closed again (though just barely in the southern quadrant). The northern eyewall is still very strong, and nobody has announced indication of windspeed being much lower...
Looks like Ivan's last gasp before landfall.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:33 AM |
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Re: Ivan Nears Landfall - Jeanne Departs Puerto Rico
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The SW quadrant of Ivan looks dry per the radar image
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:33 AM |
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If you have power and no cable...read this
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We lost cable way before power. You can use the cable as sort of an antenna. Unscrew the cable from the tv and take that little prong thingy inside the cable and just kinda put it back in the recepter. If you move it around a little you will get reception from your local ABC, CBS, or NBC affiliates. Point the prong thing upwards...thats what worked for me. Its kinda tricky but it does work.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:35 AM |
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Frank P
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LI PHIL....has anyone called him? sometimes you can call them...but they can't call you...don't ask me why...it just works sometimes....i work in the wireless field...the phone signals can be diminished greatly with rain, wind, and wet trees surrounding the house.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:36 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Okay. Ppl suggested this to me during Frances. Never could get it to work. What do you mean by "point the prong thing upwards"? I know what the prong is... but upwards?
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:41 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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upwards once you put it back in the hole. Like....ummmm.....make a circle with your left hand (thumb and forefinger) with the pointer finger on your right hand aim directly in the circle of your left hand. Once its in a little point your finger up to the ceiling. Thats what you do with the cable too.
Can you tell I am a girl? Yep blonde too
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:41 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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justin & ....deco(too hard to remember the full handle)
Justin, I went back to the previous thread to PM you...look for the little red flashing envelope.
.....deco...I think what they are saying is that that cable line can actually act as an antenna (for the younger members, that's how we used to have to watch tv), and it might be able to provide you with at least your local stations...the old fashioned way. if I'm wrong, then I have no idea about which I speak (certainly not a first there).
Good luck and as long as you can post...I'm here to try to respond...
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:43 AM |
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Bouy Data
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Is this buoy just broken because it doesn't make sense to me...Buoy 42040 is located 8 miles from the eye. Hurricane force winds extend 105 miles from center. Yet winds at this buoy are at 43 knots with 58 knot guts.
It doesn't make sense to me. Does anyone have an explanation? The only thing I can think of is that it's inside the eye right now, but the graph associated with the buoy doesn't seem to correlate with that. And does it really have 43 knot winds in the eye? My memory of Hugo was that it was dead calm when the eye passed overhead.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:44 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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jb just on fox said jeanne will be another major. will come to fla, and sounds like we could have karl and lisa mext week.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:45 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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That's why it's never a bad idea to have some spare 'rabbit ears' as part of your hurricane stock... even if you have a generator or power is restored, you may be without cable for quite awhile thereafter.
And if seems that no sooner than I posted, the eyewall split up again
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:47 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Yes rabbit ears are great to have.. Make sure you buy them before the hurricane. They are inexpensive and sell out quickly after the storm.. So yep, a great add to the hurricane survival kit..
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:49 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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If no Rabbit Ears, just use some wire. I know not everyone is like me and has pieces of wire laying around you can use some telephone wire or any kind of thin wire to make an antenna. Be creative !!! Radio/TV signals don't care what you use or what it looks like.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:52 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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My house just vibrated...!
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:56 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Oh man! Your house is vibrating and its on stilts? Are you alone? Are you in your safe room right now?
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:00 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Stilts, not alone but he's asleep; it stopped it was a definite shake! I've felt this before during Hurricane Earl.
Man, my heart was pounding!
I checked the SGI weather thingy online, it still says highest gust was 64 mph - I assume that was earlier today. - oh wait, it just changed to "50 Gust".... It musta been a gust...
Wow....
wow....
Had to edit:
I do not have a "safe room"... interior room, every room has at least one wall that is on the outside.
http://www.beachvillage.net/weather_center_1.html
is our local weather thing in the middle of the island
i look at
http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar/...amp;centery=240
to check the storm & tornado things.
sorry, too shaky to do the ubb thing or re-type.Susie.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:03 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Yeah, it's gonna do that a lot, especially cause you're on stilts. Some of that movement is good. Most houses are designed with a little "give" in them.
You are in for all kinds of noises tonight. Howling, screaming, booming winds; creaks, pops and groans; rattling shutters/windows and the occasional crash. There's not much you can do about it except try and distract yourself. During Frances I played my weather radio with earphones to block out the noises.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:05 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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What city are you actually in? Do you have a mattress to cover up with? Vibrating might mean the roof is not liking this wind much. Please get a mattress and take cover.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:06 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Kent...she is on St. George Island...just south of Tallahassee..the winds are not that bad there...although being along the coast she will get some very interesting gusts from the ocean.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:07 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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I am on St. George Island, FL, offshore of Apalachicola.
I am not too scared; just a tad nervous.
Susie
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:11 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Was watching MSNBC a little bit ago, they have a report out on a barrier island broadcasting from a dome house. The house is on 16 piling, the first floor is 18 feet above sea level, 2nd floor 12 feet above that. I believe he said he was near Pen. I can't believe they are broadcasting from there sounds to dangerous to me. JB was also on talking about Jeane. Its going to be another long week.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:11 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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I understand...just went through Francis myself. I'm in North Lauderdale we were on the edge of the strong winds. It is scary. We had gusts about what you're having. Its ok though. In that kinda wind only trees will be coming down.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:12 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Darlin, hang in there. I am in Tally and all is calm. I knw that is no comfort, but hang in there.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:18 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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O'm ok... my nervous dog is snoozing so I am sure it's ok
what about people off Mobile.\... man oh man.
Sorry, let's get back on track.
Susie
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:19 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Not to make light of the situation Susie. Maybe the dog and significant other are trying to tell us something.
Go to sleep, if you can
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:27 AM |
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11 pm CDT
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On land observations:
Highest Sustained Winds:
72 mph Dauphin Island AL
70 mph Pensacola NAS FL
Highest Wind Gusts:
90 mph Dauphin Island AL
83 mph Pensacola NAS FL
Lowest Pressure:
28.81" Dauphin Island AL
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:27 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Susie, I like this radar link. You can tell whats coming and what just left. Course I would rely on the dog. They do know when to be nervous. If he's calm then you can be calm.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/radar/station.asp?ID=TLH19
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:29 AM |
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To all those still on line...
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I want to thank you all for checking in here and posting...
I need to take a 10-20 minute break from the site...which probably translates to a decent sleep, but I will try to be on line for those who need, well, whatever do you need aside from power, security, electricity, food...not to make light of it.... but I GOTTA just sit back for a couple and watch the inanity of TWC and their endless recycled stories.
I would think that if you live in a home in the danger area that is built on stilts, you might wat to consider leaving it, though, I don't have any experience in that area.
Peace and godspeed ATTM.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:31 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Hey LisaNC,
North Carolina seems to be a safe haven this hurricane season.
No worries.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:36 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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Hey....It is normally, but I'm in western NC. I believe I might be swimming here in couple of days..
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:39 AM |
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Re: To all those still on line...
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I'll follow that with a repeat of last night's evacuation info.
If you are:
1-If you are the only one left in your neighborhood, and you are in an evacuation zone. you may need to leave now.
2-If there are bridges between you and safety, you need to leave now.
3-If you fit the above situations, and you have children with you, You Need To Leave Now!
4-In short, if your weather is bad, Ivan is coming toward you, and you Aren't 100% sure. YOU NEED TO LEAVE NOW !!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:41 AM |
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Re: To all those still on line...
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Too late to leave now...they need to hunker down now...the worst is about to come ashore.
Btw, Floridians....there are Hurricane Watches up for the SE Bahamas.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:45 AM |
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Re: To all those still on line...
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There may be a few places, that don't have 35mph winds yet, that could be evacuated. Ivan seems to want to drag this out some more. Energizer Ivan..going and going and going.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:47 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
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OK....
bed is now the best option...but I leave you with this...
Dave Schwartz from TW C made evenig's most irresponsable or the most precient comment all evening...
"The most deaths (yes deaths) will be from the inland flooding from Ivan than from the deaths at the coast""
Nite y'alll...godspeed!!!!
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:48 AM |
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Re: Jeanne
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I saw that Recon was flying Jeanne about 30 minutes ago. Should have an update in an hour or two.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:51 AM |
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|
Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
|
Quote:
Hey....It is normally, but I'm in western NC. I believe I might be swimming here in couple of days..
I love the Smokeys, I think some of the hiking trails may be changed due to flooding streams if they get as much rain from Ivan as is forecast. It's supposed to stall over that area possibly until it rains itself out.
I hope the damage to the mountains and the towns are kept to a minimum.....
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:57 AM |
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Re: Jeanne
|
wonder why they havent had a plane in their earlier today.im afraid fla. is in trouble again.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:01 AM |
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Re: If you have power and no cable...read this
|
jason said we just had a gust of 74??? been really picking up the last hour or so. they were showing sky web cam and you could transformers blowing. he said if we still had lights we were lucky if we had above ground power lines. ours have gone out a few times but come back on. my 2 dogs are sorta sleeping too but they are right underfoot. storm surge maybe a little higher with the center coming alittle closer to us. news is saying almost 200 building have major damage or are destroyed from the tornados. got a huge oak limb down in back yard and a couple of big pine limbs. all kinds of little limbs. glad we are just getting the fringes. has anyone heard from frank. and what about coop you ok
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:08 AM |
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Re: Jeanne
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No wishcasting or dire predictions for east coast Florida, please! We CANNOT handle another one of these right now. Even if it only comes close and veers off, it will cause a run on gasoline and batteries, not to mention generators (for the 4 or 5 people who didn't buy one for Frances) and everything not tied down in the camping section of Wal-Mart (which isn't much anyways these days). Plus my students need to get back to school so that they can actually LEARN about weather!
Sorry... think I'm suffering from a little PTSD tonight. Prayers to ANYONE who gets even a drop of rain from Ivan!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:13 AM |
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Re: FrankP Update
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WLOX-TV is located about a half mile from where FrankP lives and about 2 miles from where Javlin lives. They just announced that 10,000 customers were without power in Harrison County,MS. So they should be okay.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:17 AM |
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Re: Ivan Vortex Update
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Latest recon for IVAN.
939mb; Poorly Defined Eye-50nm diameter; Max Winds were 122kts, flt level, at 0010Z ( 4 1/2 hours ago. They haven't updated the windspeed)
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:17 AM |
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Re: FrankP Update
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i figure he is ok too. he is a "ole salt". don't tell him i said that though.LOL
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:52 AM |
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Wave Heights
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WOW! That was some impressive waves they just showed in Pensacola on MSNBC! I can't imagine how terrifying it must be for those who evacuated from the islands to be seeing these pictures, not to mention how scared the folks are who stayed!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 05:55 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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Biloxi TV Chief Met is calling Gulf Shores,AL the landfall location. Northern eye wall is just offshore south of Gulf Shores.
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 06:06 AM |
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Re: To all those still on line...
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Quote:notice how they keep coming west with track..get used to it because there is more to come..a stalled out ivan is going to pump the ridge up, models will get a better handle once ivan comes to its resting psotion after the stall. conditions favorable too as pointed out by nhc in a few days.
Too late to leave now...they need to hunker down now...the worst is about to come ashore.
Btw, Floridians....there are Hurricane Watches up for the SE Bahamas.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 06:47 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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Ivan's on shore of the barrier islands of Alabama; the northern eyewall looks to be making its way into the mainland now.
And just as I thought I could get some rest here....phone call comes with a line moving into Tallahassee with the notification of a tornado warning just to the south. The line has slowly been moving east as Ivan has, and this area has been untapped all day long. Large values of speed -- and some directional -- shear coupled with a bit of instability and the typical stuff you see with outer rainbands...well, this could be an interesting night yet in the eastern panhandle.
Stay safe, everyone.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 09:12 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update
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Who thinks Ivan will be retired?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 09:46 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne)
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I hope he will change his mind and make this a thunderstorm instead.........:)
OBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO
INTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION
AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24
HOURS. FORECASTER JARVINEN
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:03 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne)
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A lot of folks I have spoken to here in Florida, have dismissed Jeanne from strike us. I at first thought she was going to be a fish spinner, but am rethinking my theory. I think we here in Florida are just in the denial stage of thinking. We have been through so much this year.
One model of Jeanne has her going into the southeastern tip of Florida then to the Yuccatan, and back around for a second strike in Florida. Don't even want to think about that one.
Hope all who are enduring Ivan will be safe.
MaryAnn
Quote:
I hope he will change his mind and make this a thunderstorm instead.........:)
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:10 AM |
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Re: Ivan Update (Jeanne)
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Its not so much denial as it is numbness. After charley and Frances and watching Ivan, it is hard to imagine another hurricane could even spin up, it is so relative. A CAT V is a unique experience to the senses and everything else looks less consequential. Of course this is erroneus thinking because a tropical storm can wreak havoc with tornadoes and flooding. Its almost like no one has any adrenalin left to be excited with. We see it coming but can not react any more. I am ready with the supplies etc. I will be alert, but if it comes-oh well.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:20 AM |
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Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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I hope the waters have cooled a bit in the wake of Frances and Ivan- nevertheless, Ivan can still play a role by influencing the strong ridge projected to be over Jeanne- then put her back in her bottle and race her N than NE to the fishies; I dream of Jeanne with the light warm winds- to get the heck away from Florida!
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:27 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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Does anyone have statistics, or even a graphical representation, of how the models performed with Charley, Frances, and Ivan? I would like to know in order to "guess" where Jeanne is going.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:44 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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with most of the models ( boatus.com spaghetti run) and NHC pointed toward a northward curve for Jeanne, where is the Florida strike talk coming from.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 10:54 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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I guess that the 5AM NHC discussion talked about the ridge to the north of Jeanne that is forecasted to influence a westerly track thereby causing a westward bias in its direction; it is hoped that a weakened ridge would cause a northerly course which is what the models are indicating now-and take it out ot sea-or to the Carolinas. The more west the greater the threat for a Florida interaction; direct or indirect.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 11:04 AM |
Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
|
I have been looking at Jeanne this morning and she looks to be interacting with Hispanola which will take quite a lot of fight out of her. I guess the energy core could spin up again but those mountains would do in a lot stronger storm than Jeanne is.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 11:05 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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A couple of the models bring it NW along the coast of East Florida. then inland near Georgia.
You know, it's too early to tell.
This is one of the things you have to endure when you live in Florida. This season has been so active that as others have said we are all weary and shell shocked.
Thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by Ivan, a deadly hurricane now in Alabama.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 11:13 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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Ther is some good news though, it did end up dropping to a 3 before making landfall
Still a very dangerous storm of course, but it could've been that much worse.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 11:22 AM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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Daylight will tell how much damage has been done to the coastal areas.
The mayor of Mobile says that there is no "major" damage to Mobile.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 11:56 AM |
Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
|
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/161133.shtml?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:02 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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It's starting to leave Puerto Rico radar. You can still see that intense feeder band, this hurricane is going to be something. It just fought Puerto Rico and now's it a hurricane, watch out from Florida to Cape Hatteras. I afraid this could be a mid-atlantic storm but this is the same mistake that they made with Frances.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:16 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Happy Birthday Jeanne,
Hope you like fish.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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South Florida is square in the middle of the "cone". If you have been reading the NHC discussions over the last day or so, the models are not all in agreement and have been changing every run. Yesterday it was the GFDL that had Jeanne coming right through Miami. Now it is further to the right, but the 00Z run had Jeanne skimming along the East Florida coast from Miami to Jacksonville. The 00Z of the GFS was east, the 06Z has Jeanne going North of the Bahamas and then coming back SW across South Florida. Also yesterday the FSU SENS was to the left of the NHC track (according to the NHC). It is still too early to tell exactly what will happen. And although I am not a big JB fan, JB is calling for a Florida Straits path. It will all have to do with Ivan's influence on the ridge.
Bill
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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My thoughts and prayers are with all of you in Ivan's path. Now that the sun is rising, maybe we can really see what hell he laid upon those in the area.
Help is on the way though! Orange County is taking my brand new Rescue truck up to Pensacola. So, those of you in the Pensacola area, if you see an Orange County Fire Rescue truck with a big number 85 on it, that's mine! Wave at those guys. They are Orange County's Finest coming to offer help! I wish I could be there, but I have small children that need me home.
Now, about Jeanne.......... Why the huge difference in the computer models and the projected path that shows on Accuweather? I like the NHC track, but I am aware that it will change several times before Sunday or Monday. What is everyone's opinion? I'm not worried........... Why is that? My husband and I were talking about post taumatic stress yesterday. I truly beleive that I am suffering from it. Charlie was very stressful at work and I was at home for Frances to ride it out, but my supervisors, in their infinite wisdom, decided to call us in at 7:30 that night! It was wicked and by the time I navigated the trees and powerlines to get to work, I was having heart palpitations from the stress. I have been very drepressed since then and I know alot of Floridians feel like me. I am just numb too.............
If Jeanne comes, oh well. Bring It!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:34 PM |
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I am tired
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I don't know about all of you, but I know I speak for many when I say - I am tired. This has me worn out, all these hurricanes. We have company flying on Friday in from Germany to stay with us for 3 weeks, so yesterday, we took down all the plywood off the house. After spending a week cleaning up from Charley here in Orlando, I went to help clean up my grandmother's property in Sorrento (near Sanford). It all gets to you after a while, especially the emotional stress of it all.
And now... I'm in (insert dramatic music here) the DREADED CONE OF JEANNE. Can't I get a breath of fresh air?
But since I know the answer to that is no, and I'm done venting, I was wondering if any of the regulars to this board who make comprehensive forecasts (i.e. Clark, scott, etc) could tell us their current thoughts on Jeanne and it's potential track. It appears its gonna become another doozie.
Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:35 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Jeanne is not going to be a fish, but if she stays on her current track, she'll be a dead duck! She may continue to head into the island (not good for the folks there) and be torn up by the mountains. She is currently heading at 265/270. That may be the saving grace for the SE US, but terrible news for Hispaniola. I would take a hit if it were to spare thousands of lives on that island. But that's not in our control
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:41 PM |
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Re: I am tired
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Hey Ed, I live in Sorrento too! Where does your Grandmother live?
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:45 PM |
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Re: I am tired
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Quote:
Hey Ed, I live in Sorrento too! Where does your Grandmother live?
Actually, my name is Kyle, I was replying to Ed. But that's okay, no prob there.
My grandmother lives on Wacassa Trail, off of Wekiva River Road, off of SR46. House is for sale, if anyone out there is interested.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:50 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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I am one that has had more than enough of hurricanes for a long time to come, and I hope Jeanne does not survive Hispanolia, but the NHC seems to think it will. Also I fear for the people on that island, Jeanne has already dropped as much as 20 in of rain on parts of PR, at least 12 in elsewhere.
Bill
| sprinterblue |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:54 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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It looks like the benchmark today for Jeanne will be whether she survives the mountains of the Dominican Republic. On my last vacation there, I biked those mountains and they are some very high peaks. I believe the highest peak is called Pico Duarte and is 11,000 feet above sea level. Jeanne's current track seems to be jogging southwest which is a little unexpected according to the models. Take a look...
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp#jeanne
My "guess-cast" is for Jeanne to weaken but survive the DR. After that I think she will regain her strength. If she is a slow mover, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild post-Ivan and Jeanne will go further west than the models are now predicting. If Jeanne moves quickly, the ridge won't have time to rebuild and she will follow the models' path and go north towards the Carolinas.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 12:56 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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I am so tired of these storms. I think they're fascinating, but living in hurricane alley is wearing me down. I've decided that I won't worry about Jeanne (for now, as she grows-so will my worry). I am very worried about what's behind Jeanne!!!
Looks like Ivan may have made landfall in Alabama, but would appear that Florida has taken the worst hit.
| sprinterblue |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:17 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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This has been a busy season! It's interesting to note the trend of a strong storm being paired with a weaker one at the same time. Examples:
Charley + Bonnie
Frances + Gaston
Ivan + Jeanne
Following this trend, I'm not nearly as worried about Jeanne as I am about the future Karl.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:20 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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morning all,
made it through the night. still windy here 40 with gust to 60. lot of trees down. got power back about 7:30. still can't go out to get a birds eye view of damage. next door neighbor has a tree down on her house.hope all to the west faired ok. tornado's did us in. don't even want to talk about jeanne..
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:21 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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I agree that jeanne will suffer a near fatal blow today...The ridge is strong and is rapidly repositining itself SW'd due to guess what ...IVAN
Also an ULL is forming SW of the storm in the cetral Carribean
Jeanne is blocked from more northward turn for now and will have to encounter Hispanola, nd then if it emerges with a circulation into the Carribean, a potentially hostile environment there with southerly shear...It looks bad for this system to me.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:22 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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There is a organizing area of convection about 300 miles south west of the cape verde islands, looks like we could have another depression. If this storm devlops I wonder when they will have it recurving, will it be a fish spinner because of that TUTT or will it recurve arouund the Azores ridge. Hopefully this one will be a fish spinner but we have Jeanne to worry about first.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:28 PM |
|
New model forecasts
|
First, with the remnants of Ivan, which is still a big issue because if it stalls, areas that don't need rain, could see severe flooding......
I think 3 out of the last 4 GFS runs take the remnant circulation to the Va. capes before getting it trapped. This would be better news for those in the Southern App. because the rainfall distribution will be larger.
This is due to the fact that the GFS (and the last ETA run) have Ivan temporarily picked up by a trough moving through the N.E., then it cuts off again, as the trough moves away, and High pressure ALOFT builds over top the remnant low. In fact, the GFS closes off a 588 Dm height line over the mid Atlantic-N.E., which is pretty strong. How Jeanne interacts should probably wait for more data, and time.
I am not going to go into model forecasts for Jeanne, since I don't think any have been initialized well yet.
Here is a link to the Model Diagnostic discussion, which comes out twice a day, usually around 1.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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glad to hear you are ok and able to post. Still be careful though.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:32 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Latest Visible satellite imagery shows Jeanne now back on a WNW course. This should keep Jeanne riding along the spine of the northern coast of Hispaniola. Florida really needs to watch her since she may indeed weaken only a bit before clearing the island. I believe a more westward track will be shown by 5pm.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:34 PM |
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Re: New model forecasts
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Is that the Clark from this website doing the the models dicussions?
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:
Latest Visible satellite imagery shows Jeanne now back on a WNW course. This should keep Jeanne riding along the spine of the northern coast of Hispaniola. Florida really needs to watch her since she may indeed weaken only a bit before clearing the island. I believe a more westward track will be shown by 5pm.
yeah..she is doing the old bounce off the mountains like ivo did when nearing jamiaca...this thing has florida written all over it.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Most models and the NHC official track both show a sharp turn northward just before Andros Island. Let's keep watching the models for that key turn in that approximate area. If not, it's a straight shot right into Miami. I already have this all figured out with Florida. The male storms like the west coast(Charley and Ivan) and the females like the east coast(Frances and Jeanne). See the pattern. Charley and Frances make direct hits and Ivan and Jeanne make near misses. We hope.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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If you check with Pensacola right now, they would not be telling you Ivan was a miss. Pensacola got the worst of Ivan from the reports I am getting.
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:44 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Thanks to all of you who post. I have learned so much since finding you! I plan to go back and read everything again when there is less stress attached to it.
I have been sending lots of prayers to all in the path of this monster. I hope it helps to know that efforts are mobilizing not only in Florida but all over the country to assist. I was amazed at how fast the electric utility trucks arrived from as far away as Indiana and Texas after Charley. The Florida National Guard was out in force. Police, Fire and EMS units came from all over the state. They'll be headed your way, even a delegation from Punta Gorda, many of whom lost their own houses in Charley, but volunteered because so many came to help their community.
Now back to Jeanne - hope we can scare her back out into the Atlantic, where she can't harm anyone else. Thanks again for all of your wonderful information!
Karen
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:45 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:
Most models and the NHC official track both show a sharp turn northward just before Andros Island. Let's keep watching the models for that key turn in that approximate area. If not, it's a straight shot right into Miami. I already have this all figured out with Florida. The male storms like the west coast(Charley and Ivan) and the females like the east coast(Frances and Jeanne). See the pattern. Charley and Frances make direct hits and Ivan and Jeanne make near misses. We hope.
that sharp turn seems a little dubious to me. just dont see it materializing i suspct nhc doesnt either since they are going down the middle of the guidance...no pint in scaring nyone at this point. heck local met in miami on nbc6 last didnt even put the 5 day come up because he said we are in it and there is no point in getting people concerned. i thought that was irresponsible because he told us we were in the cone yet didnt show it and isnt his job to report the facts. so i guess from now on i will look at roland steadhams info as incomplete. used to repsect the guy but id ont know after that stunt.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:46 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Officially a miss, landfall at Gulf Shores , Alabama. I am talking eye landfall here.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:47 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Glad to hear you are okay. Do you have any idea how the beaches fared? Especially the PCB area?
It's been raining here. The wind is starting to pick up a bit. Not huge gusts though. My neighbor went to pick up batteries and candles. I couldn't help but to laugh at her. (As a Fl girl, what we're going to get will be a picnic compaired to what Al/Fl got)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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I don't think that turn will happen either, also the NHC has the storm acclerating once it gets into the Bahamas and remaining hurricane strength. If you ask me, I think that they bombed on this track.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Well, this model tract is still 5 or so days out. Lets wait till it gets a little coser to see whats going to happen with it. I think the farther west it is able to go the more of the central or north part of the state may have to worry.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Heh. Well as we say, its not the center that counts. This is even more proof.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 01:59 PM |
| Attachment |
Exit Ivan - Enter Jeanne
|
Received this (attachment) the other day and had to pass it on. We may be battle weary, but we have to remain vigilant. No need to panic about Jeanne at this point. Before this year, we'd find it quite normal to see a cyclone like Jeanne move toward the Bahamas and Florida only to be steered to the north, as model consensus is currently suggesting.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: New model forecasts *DELETED*
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Post deleted by MrSpock
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
|
Part of the eyewall went over the Pensacola vicinity too. There is just lots of damage down there.
| Mongo |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:01 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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My neighbor went to pick up batteries and candles. I couldn't help but to laugh at her. (As a Fl girl, what we're going to get will be a picnic compaired to what Al/Fl got)
Why on earth would you laugh at her? The last time I checked it's just as dark in Georgia when the power goes out as it is in Florida. You know the power goes at here at times with a slight breeze, much less the remnants of a strong hurricane.
In addition, being on the east side of the remnants, tornadoes are a distinct possibility. Remember last week when the center of circulation from Frances went through west Georgia, yet South Carolina got hit with 36 tornadoes?
Seems ironic that a "Florida gal" would laugh at someone preparing for a storm.
Brian
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Pensacola looks like a war zone, worst damage I've seen this morning. Alabama looks like a lot of debris. Buildings wiped out in Pensacola.
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:04 PM |
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Re: Jeanne- Back In Her Bottle
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Then Mobile is a very lucky city. They're saying extensive damage to Pensacola.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:06 PM |
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Re: New model forecasts
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I was talking about the link that you gave out. The disuccion was written by a person named Clark, does that no mean it's not Clark. Could you clarify that, thanks.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Sorry, I should of explained myself better. I always keep stuff like that on hand. Not wait until the last minute and have to rush out and get it. You know how it is here.......People panic over 1/4 inch of snow, let alone something like this coming at them.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:11 PM |
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Re: New model forecasts
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ah, I see, I never saw who wrote that....that is a good question.....see what happens when you glance at posts while doing 3 other things? :-)
| Jack Love |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:14 PM |
Re: New thread
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With so much happening at the moment, can we start a new thread on Jeanne? Thanks.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:22 PM |
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Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Moring all.... I fell a sleep around 10 last night and I just work up... boy did I need it... hounds dogs OK to...
we had no damage around my area... I don't even hear chain saws... Isadore was a whole lot worse... that's because we were on her east side... makes a tremendous difference... I have not heard from my brother yet, and I'm a little concerned, he lives in west Mobile and I'm not sure what kind of damage they got.... I didn't even lose a shingle..... WEST IS best if you have to be on the side of a hurricane... that and Ivan moving a little off to the east at landfall sure helped... not evacuating was a calculated risk and one based on sound forecasting reasoning... but my car stayed packed and ready to go in case of any deviation... being 20 feet above sea level on the beach also helps
max winds around here maybe 60, surge less than 5 feet tops... still don't have power but everything else.
I need to go back and read all the post so I have a good historic review of the events that transpired during the past 12 hours or so..
I got to image Pensacola and Gulf shores and eastward have been devistated...
thanks to all for you concern and support...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:23 PM |
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re: I-10 Bridge
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From pensacolanewsjournal.com:
A quarter mile section of east-bound Interstate 10 bridge over Escambia Bay connecting Santa Rosa and Escambia is missing. Part of the cement was pushed up on the side of the bridge and part of it was in the water. The west-bound section was damaged, but still standing.
See pic here
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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good to hear from you, hopefully you'll hear from your brother soon.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:30 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Quote:
we had no damage around my area... WEST IS best if you have to be on the side of a hurricane... that and Ivan moving a little off to the east at landfall sure helped... not evacuating was a calculated risk and one based on sound forecasting reasoning... but my car stayed packed and ready to go in case of any deviation... being 20 feet above sea level on the beach also helps
thanks to all for you concern and support...
Frank, good to hear back from you. Glad you're safe. Everyone has to make that individual call re: evacuation. Still praying for others in Pensacola and northward in the path of this potentially heavy rain and flooding event.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:
Officially a miss, landfall at Gulf Shores , Alabama. I am talking eye landfall here.
*edited to be nicer*
It's Technically a miss. It's officially a disaster for parts of 3 states and as many countries.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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thanks Revup and MrSpock.... just heard from my brother on my cell, he's OK and did not suffer any damage during the storm...
looks like the eastern side of Al and the panhandle took the brunt of the storm.... I bet the damage reports will just get worse over time.... I feel for those people....
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:44 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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11 Am out on Jeane
18.8 N 68.7 W
80 mph gusts 100mph
Movement West at 6
Pressure 986mb
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Morning all...
FP glad you're fine...good news about your bro too. Hopefully those to the right of the eyewall will have fared better than we hoped...thank god this dropped to a III before landfall...brutal yes...but better than the alternative.
I do not even want to look at the Jeanne (btw, half the forecasters are pronouncing it "Jean" and half "Jeanie" -- does anyone know if there is a "correct" pronounciation?). Lets just hope the mountains of Hispaniola deal her a death knell...and lets hope the disaster of last May does not repeat itself.
Peace y'all...speedy recovery wished for here...anyone directly affected please give us updates when you can!
PS: I don't believe "our" Clark wrote the hpc discussion...I believe "our" Clark (his middle name) would have used his last name were he to have written that discussion...LOL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:47 PM |
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Navarre
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Any word on how the Navarre, FL area is?
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:48 PM |
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PHIL....
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what was the disaster of last May
*pops Xantax*
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:48 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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That Interstate 10 being out is going to be a problem for a good while, there's a good chance the whole thing is unsound now. The only bad thing about reports doing live shots is a lot of the time they can't give you a good extent of the damage. I have a feeling the reports are going to come in over the next few days are going to be not so good.
I'm going to be gone from the site until Monday night because of a family emergency. The rest should be able to hold it. If I get a chance or two to check on Jeanne I might but no guarantees.
| dani |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: re: I-10 Bridge
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With part of I-10 being gone and the fact that Hwy 90 that connects pensacola to pace in santa rosa is probably under water, there is no way to get back to our house.
Fortunately, from what we've heard, we lost our fence and some trees, and maybe some broken windows, but the house is still there and better than some in our neighborhood who lost their homes.
I hear they're undera boil water restriction presently as well as 300,000 without power, which Gulf power says covers the 4 extreme counties of florida: escambia, santa rosa, okaloosa and bay counties.
btw, pictures of the I-10 bridge loss is available at www.pensacolanewsjournal.com
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 02:59 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Quote:
I do not even want to look at the Jeanne (btw, half the forecasters are pronouncing it "Jean" and half "Jeanie" -- does anyone know if there is a "correct" pronounciation?). Lets just hope the mountains of Hispaniola deal her a death knell...and lets hope the disaster of last May does not repeat itself.
It's pronounced "GEEN". The folks who are confused aren't used to seeing "Jean" Spelled "Jeanne".
I interviewed with a Jeanne once and fortunately, I called her "GEEN" instead of "GEENEE" - I heard that she would immediately end the interview with anyone making that faux pas.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:
Sorry, I should of explained myself better. I always keep stuff like that on hand. Not wait until the last minute and have to rush out and get it. You know how it is here.......People panic over 1/4 inch of snow, let alone something like this coming at them.
*chuckles* did you panic when atlanta had 3 inches of ice on the roads, Lord knows I did when I actually was dumb enough to get stuck out in the middle of it and had to crawl my way home... Atlanta gets some of the strangest weather. But only rarely....
Back to on topic: looks like Ivan really picked up forward speed at the last moment. I'm having serious doubts about a stall at this point. What are the implications for Jeanne if Ivan races out of the picture in the next 48 hours?
Also, is it just me, or do the hurricanes seem more... tenacious this year, fighting shear, fighting all sorts of negative factors and troopering on? (or maybe the negative influences weren't as negative as they seemed to be at the time...)
Take care people, I understand there's no school in most of Georgia today. Hopefully, that's not a bad sign...
Mark
Go Falcons 1 - 0.... And in First place?!?!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:04 PM |
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Re: PHIL....
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Quote:
what was the disaster of last May
*pops Xantax*
It was, what many consider to be our first TD or TS (went unnamed) of the season...torrential rains and flooding killed thousands (not sure of the number but I believe it was 4,000+) in Hispaniola, most of them in Haiti. I'll go find the thread on which it was discussed and link you to it...
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=14307&page=2&fpart=10&vc=1
start reading on Page 10...the news goes from bad to worse...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:06 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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I think it is going to take a while to get a lot of good news on Pensacola. Media seemed to be focused on Mobile. I know that this is overwhelming the news resources that are in Pensacola. My concern is definately for the beaches from Gulf Shores, Alabama to Destin, Fl. It may be diffcult to get info from these areas at this time. They were getting hard poundings at 9:00 last night. If landfall did not occur until 3:00am, I shudder to think what some of these areas may look like. Not sure how passable US98 is right now. I remember what Fort Walton looked like after Opal. I suspect that Pensacola Beach will look a lot worse.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:08 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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I hope your emergency resolves itself positively soon. Good luck.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:12 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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*chuckles* did you panic when atlanta had 3 inches of ice on the roads, Lord knows I did when I actually was dumb enough to get stuck out in the middle of it and had to crawl my way home... Atlanta gets some of the strangest weather. But only rarely....!
You got stuck in it? So did I. We were on 400 when they started shutting down the hwy. trying to get to the airport.
However, my mother seems to think there is a dirrect correlation between the hurricane season in the summer and the snowfall in the winter.......
Does anyone know how the beaches fared in PCB?
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:14 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Well, so much for jeane getting weaker. If anything it is getting stronger. I mean it should have gotten weak from going over pr and it went from 60 to 80 over that time frame.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Just read the 11 Am Discussion for Jeanne.
Anybody else tired or reading "Steering currents become weak after 48 hours"?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:17 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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The discussion:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:18 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:
Well, so much for jeane getting weaker. If anything it is getting stronger. I mean it should have gotten weak from going over pr and it went from 60 to 80 over that time frame.
Went from 70 to 60 and then after being back over the ocean, went up to 80. Slight but important difference there
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:18 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:NHC has quoted the research of experts showing that the steering currents and other variables are quite favorable for tropical storm development this year, and conditions which take them farther west ... which is why everyone has been calling for an above average season. (an understatement?)
Also, is it just me, or do the hurricanes seem more... tenacious this year, fighting shear, fighting all sorts of negative factors and troopering on? (or maybe the negative influences weren't as negative as they seemed to be at the time...)
I understand there's no school in most of Georgia today. Hopefully, that's not a bad sign...
It should be pointed out that many schools (incl. Tampa) had already selected today as a holiday since it coincides with Rosh Hashanah. Perhaps the same is true in GA?
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:19 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Spoke to family in Vero this morning. They are still going through frequent power outages and they aren't taking their plywood down for a while.
Family in Mobile, P-goula, and Gautier are okay as well. I don't think they got too much damage. (fam. in Mobile has a house on the bay. They haven't gone to check things out yet)
Still waiting to hear about beach house in PCB............
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:21 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Quote:You know it!
Anybody else tired of reading "Steering currents become weak after 48 hours"?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:21 PM |
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Re: New Thread up
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New thread is up
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 03:22 PM |
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Re: Jeanne's a Hurricane
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Good point. I guess i should have actually checked the numbers insead of remembering. I guess it was the booze.....only thing is I dont drink.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Quote:
It's pronounced "GEEN". The folks who are confused aren't used to seeing "Jean" Spelled "Jeanne".
I interviewed with a Jeanne once and fortunately, I called her "GEEN" instead of "GEENEE" - I heard that she would immediately end the interview with anyone making that faux pas.
My mother's sister-in-law Jeanne pronounced her name ZHAHN - Tante Jeanne to me.
If the NHC wanted a GEEN, why not Jean?
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 16 2004 04:56 PM |
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Re: Frank P - reporting in - late but safe
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Quote:I heard a report from PCB 98 was closed from there to Destin.
Not sure how passable US98 is right now. I remember what Fort Walton looked like after Opal. I suspect that Pensacola Beach will look a lot worse.
From FWB a report it was closed from there to Pensacola.
I guess it is open in downtown FWB, PERIOD.