MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 08:39 PM |
Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Jim Williams and his Hurricane City Broadcast is on the air from now (off and on) till whenever he loses power in Delray Beach-- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
Let Jim know where you are from.. Use this link to listen
Jim 's power is out, he may get back on with a generator so try later.
10:30PM
Looks like Jeanne is landfalling in Stuart / Port St. Lucie
Melbourne Radar Link for Jeanne
Jeanne ihas slowed a tad and now seems to want to begin the nrothernly movement, but not enough to save Ft. Pierce and Martin County with an eyewall hit. If the slowdown continues it may ride the coastline northward... It's going to be a long night.
7:30PM Update
Radar still has it moving due west into Martin St. Lucie Indian River counties toward just south of Fort Pierce.
6PM Update - Ed Dunham
Jeanne nudges a little more to the north. Landfall at Sebastian at 2am Sunday with winds of 125mph gusting to 150mph (Category III). Storm surge 8 to 9 feet.
Storm will be located 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at 4am - winds on the beaches and in Melbourne will peak out of the east southeast at 100mph gusting to 125mph (Category II). Storm will be located 25 miles southwest of Orlando at 10am with winds out of the southeast at 80mph gusting to 100mph.
Evacuation is no longer a safe option except to get to a nearby shelter in the next hour or two. If remaining at home, set up any emergency safe room - inside bathroom or walk-in closet - with battery operated radio, water, flashlights, snacks - as a place to ride out the high winds. This is a dangerous Category III storm - do not take it lightly - stay safe!
ED
Original Update Mike C
Hurricane Jeanne has continues its nearly due west motion, still on track,which continues what I think will likely be a Palm Beach or Martin County --- Indian River as well landfall. It's still strengthening so it will be a major system at landfall sometime overnight. It may have slowed just a hair, but with all the eye wobbles and the shape of the eye currently its hard to tell. West around 14 mph is the best guess.
NHC official forecast takes landfall near Vero Beach, by the way,.
Jeanne's latest recon has the pressure down to 950... still strengthening as the eyewall is adjusting itself. Another recon report should be out soon, and it is likely the windspeed will be higher.
The more northward turn may still happen before landfall, but the signs of it aren't there yet.
More to come soon.
Event Related Links
StormCarib reports from the Bahamas
You can find links to County Emergency Management offices at floridadisaster.org
Jeanne Color Satellite
Various Audio/Video Feeds from hurricane affected areas
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
All Current Hurricane Local Statements
Mark Sudduth is doing video updates as he heads toward Vero to set up his reasearch team. Check on it here.
Hurricanetrack HIRT vehicle (camera, and more)
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jacksonville (North Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
Jeanne Sphagehtti Model from BoatUS/Hurricane Alley
Jeanne Plots from Weather Underground
Jeanne Satelllite Image with track/radar Overlays
Jeanne Radar Image
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Jacksonville.
Melbourne
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info (Decoded) thanks Londovir
Other Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
RAMSDIS Satellite Images (high speed)
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC,GFDL, JMA,NOGAPS,UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 08:50 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Here are the current obs from my weather station near St. Petersburg, FL:
Wind: N gusting to 25mph
Pressure: 29.71in and falling
Rain: Trace
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 08:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Next update in a few at 5?
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 08:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Discussion for 17:00 ET is out. Where is Skeet with his graphics? They are awesome.
The NRL track has been updated:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 08:53 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I keep looking at the boatus.com website and wind you look at the windfield look at the eyewall fixes. the last several have a more northerly component. its definetely not heading due west....
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:02 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Thanks for posting that about boatus. I keep forgetting about that site.
Wind: 23 mph / 37 km/h from the North
Wind Gust: 36 mph / 57 km/h
Pressure: 29.47 in / 998 hPa and dropping
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:06 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
The 5pm dicussion referenced the SHIPS Inland Decay Model.......DSHIPS. Where can I find that?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:06 PM |
|
|
5:00 Discussion
|
Avila still playing it real close to the vest...without actually saying so, I'm guessing that depending where Jeanne is in her ERC, a Cat IV is possible...lets hope not.
Latest WV loop shows her looking to get her act together a bit...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:11 PM |
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Yeah the phrasing was that at this time they couldn't rule out a Cat 4. That's their way of saying prepare for one without the associated panic of saying "This will be a Cat 4 at landfall..."
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
It's gonna be close to one, either way. Wonder if my Thursday Call for landfall between Ft. Pierce & Cocoa Beach will bust...that's gonna be close too.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
A strong 3, most likely. Certainly nothing to put your guard down over.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:14 PM |
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Last image on that one looks like she hops to the west a bit, hard to tell, could be nothing.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
My 8-day old SE Florida part is true enough, although I had her getting here days ago as a "barely-holding-onto-life Cat 1"
time for my 4 and twenty blackbirds baked in a pie!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:17 PM |
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Anybody remember back in July when the going topic was " WHERE'S THE WEATHER"?
Perhaps we should be more careful in what we ask for.
TOM5R
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
You guys and your info just amaze me. Keep it coming. I am now a learning machine....
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:19 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Windspeed at landfall right now is forecast at 110 kts. That's 127 mph right?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:19 PM |
|
|
|
Thursday's original crow munching forecast
|
Here's my call from Thursday...let's see how bad it is:
Ok, here it is. Please keep in mind that I am not a met, so take this forecast with a grain of salt (which is how I like my crow).
Jeanne will continue on her westward trek towards the Bahamas and Florida for the next 36 hours or so, tracking across Great Abaco Island. During this time, she will strengthen from a CAT II to a CAT III, perhaps getting as strong as 130 mph sustained. After 36 hours, the ridge will be relaxed enough to permit a WNW, then NW turn. By 36 hours, Florida will begin to feel the first effects from Jeanne. This will be approximately 8 am on Saturday morning.
Jeanne will then take the NW trek towards Florida, landfalling somewhere between Ft. Pierce and Cocoa Beach as a CAT III (~125 MPH winds) Sunday morning between 8 and 12 noon. She will go inland, but will begin making a NNW turn while inland; Jeanne will maintain hurricane force winds throughout her trek up the coast line, during which time she will head north and then NNE and exit Florida near the FL/GA border...winds at this time will still be >74, still a minimal hurricane. She will not remain over Florida for more than four hours...
Once in the open Atlantic, Jeanne will increase in forward speed and regain CAT II status on a track that will take her towards the Outer Banks. She will landfall a second time near Cape Lookout with 100 MPH winds, just barely missing Cape Fear on her way. I would expect this to be midday on Monday. She will continue to hug the coast just offshore of the Delmarva and Cape May, NJ as a minimal hurricane. This should be by Monday evening. She will then take a more easterly trek and pass just south of Montauk Point Tuesday morning, still a CAT I, finally barely narrowly missing Cape Cod Tuesday night.
Florida may take quite a whallop as may the Outer Banks, but the main threat will be heavy rains in areas that don't need it, causing serious flooding, and gales all the way up the coast from Cape May through Cape Cod. Surge could be a problem for Florida, but not really a factor anywhere else, but high seas (15'+ waves in some places) will further erode beaches.
-----------------------------------------
Well, there you have it. My first "real" stab at a forecast. It's alot closer to me than I would like it, so that's why it will probably be wrong! I need some new crow recipies which I am sure to get with this one.
Everyone stay safe and pay close attention to the NHC forecasts...they're the only ones to trust...all others should be taken in conjunction with the NHC's.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Thursday's original crow munching forecast
|
Hey Phil--
You know any Zilnicki's on the island?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:30 PM |
|
|
|
Scottsvb's forecast
|
By comparison, here is Scottsvb's forecast, posted at approximately 3:00 on Thursday:
"First off you cant go by the exact points that the NHC has listed as their track. For example many have noticed the 25.6N for the next 36 hours but we know most of the time storms will wobble along the axis. If I was the NHC I would of gone 25.8 then 25.9 then keep it there a extra 6 hrs then move it up again another.1 or .2 even by 48hrs. So what Im saying it will be near 26.2N in 48hrs from now. Thing is over the last 12 hrs the mid level flow around the strong ridge still way off to the NW was losing its reach on Jeanne. Now with a light steering flow she wobbled to the wnw over the last few hours. She will though start to feel the ridge more as it moves southeast from Penns- the midatlantic states over the next 24hrs so this will change the current 280-285dg track back to a almost due west track of 270-275dg. Some of the models show this on the mid level flow pattern.
She will run over cooler SSTs this afternoon halting any intensification but later this evening into tonight she should start to strengthn slightly with the night time durational affects. It could be close to a Cat 3 by morning. After rolling thru the bahamas and very close to Nassau, By late Friday night into the morning Sat she should lose the due west course but its unsure of it will be truley WNW at 295dg or more 280-285 during the day Saturday. Anyways, none the less, a moderate strengthning affect should happen when she encounters the warm gulf stream waters. These waters were only partially affected by frances plus frances was a few weeks ago so the waters had time to recover up to 28-29c. Shear will begin though and could hamper any great intensification before landfall. Landfall is tough to pinpoint due to it being 66hrs out from now and the shape of the florida coastline. Right now as hard as it is Im going to say it will make landfall around 115-125mph from Pompano beach-Jupiter inlet. This is my 50mile swath for 3 days out or so. It could reach Lake Ockechobee or NE part causing extreme conditions near south bay, belle glade, and even Cleweston area around the lake. Jeanne should slowly weaken and head NW and even NNW into southern Polk county thru there on Sunday afternoon (abouts) to west of Orlando. It could then move N or even NNE coming up close to Jacksonville. Anyways really after it gets to Lake Ockechobee really all bets are off right now as that is just after 72 hrs out. IM not 100% sure it wont just go WNW to Sarasota then NW near Clearwater and up to the Panhandle or by the lake go NNW between Orlando and the Cape and exiting just north of Daytona beach by late sunday night. So after the lake its still up in the air untill tomorrow. Anyways I gave my landfall spot. The ridge should hold strong into Saturday. Jeanne should gradually pick up some forward speed over the next 6-12 hrs and continue and turn more due west also in that time period. Hurricane watches should be posted I would feel as early as 11pm tonight to give alittle more time for the high population areas along the florida east coast.Oh btw landfall times around between 10pm saturday night and 4am sunday morning,,that could be revised."
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Quote:
Last image on that one looks like she hops to the west a bit, hard to tell, could be nothing.
Jeanne is still heading just about due west, but a tad slower. Jeanne did wobble to the WNW between about noon and 2pm, but has been on a due west track ever since. The WNW turn is forecasted, and will not indicate a major track change when it happens later tonight or tomorrow morning.
It appears to me that Jeanne will landfall in almost exactly the same spot Frances did.
Ronn
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:38 PM |
|
Re: Scottsvb's forecast
|
Phil--I stand corrected...kudos to you man! Here in Florida we wish you had both been completely wrong, but I guess this is our year.
Eyewall looks to be contracting some, and the radar presentation is getting better and better. I think we'll know very soon what kind of intensification Jeanne has planned before she comes ashore but I think Cat 4 is looking more and more likely.
So far in East Orlando, we've head periods of moderate rain and breezy conditions. So far, wetter than Frances to this point, but not as breezy. Compared to Charley, very different--Charley gave us two major feeder bands before the real action began.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:40 PM |
|
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Looks more west now. Thomas gives some reasoning. This just in.
At this time it appears that Jeanne will come ashore within the north side of my landfall window, between Ft. Pierce and Vero Beach. She looks just incredible on visible satellite imagery at the moment and I expect her to flirt with CAT 4 status. We have to watch for speed divergence though as she nears shore, She could suddenly auger in further down the coast nearer Hobe Sound, much like Charley did on the west coast.
Here in Plant City 25 east of Tampa we have already seen several feeder band rain squalls move through with wind gusts to 30 mph. Barometer is 29.69" and falling at 5:00 pm EDT. I think County EOC's are dropping the ball here on the west coast. Many are expecting wind gusts of tropical storm force and nothing more. Many are going to be stunned at the hurricane force winds and all the damage that's going to occur, plus west coast storm surge.
Be Safe,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL,
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:43 PM |
|
FNC
|
If anyone is watching Fox, their forecaster looks to be using the GFS on their graphic.
Phil and Steve did do a good job on their forecasts, but I wish their forecasts were for it to go out to sea.
Remember, DO NOT GO OUT DURING THE STORM!
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FNC
|
Quote:Tell that to the dog!
Remember, DO NOT GO OUT DURING THE STORM!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:50 PM |
|
My $.02 Forecast
|
Just to add the the crow eating fest, here's my posted forecast from Friday, September 17. Post #28858.
"Jeanne - I think she will make it off the coast of Hispaniola and begin to reform the circle of convection around the eye. As this strengthing occurs, she will speed up. I disagree with the NHC that the turn to the west will be so abrupt. I think it will be a wide arc with landfall around the same place as Frances with 50 mile margin of error either north or south, depending on how long Ivan hangs out in GA and how fast the high over Florida erodes."
I guess that's about right except for Ivan being part of the problem. He was indirectly though. I wish she had gone out dancing with Karl instead.
Conditions here in S. Orlando continue to deteriorate. Not awful yet, steady misting rain and getting cooler. Temp is down to 77.9 and the weather station says its gonna rain today. No joke.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:50 PM |
|
Re: FNC
|
water (surf) already coming up over the dunes ( well what is left of them) in Cape Canaveral...we have a digital cam but no card reader right now..working on getting some pics on a neighbors pc and will post some
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:50 PM |
|
Re: 5:00 Discussion
|
Quote:
Looks more west now. Thomas gives some reasoning. This just in.
At this time it appears that Jeanne will come ashore within the north side of my landfall window, between Ft. Pierce and Vero Beach. She looks just incredible on visible satellite imagery at the moment and I expect her to flirt with CAT 4 status. We have to watch for speed divergence though as she nears shore, She could suddenly auger in further down the coast nearer Hobe Sound, much like Charley did on the west coast.
Here in Plant City 25 east of Tampa we have already seen several feeder band rain squalls move through with wind gusts to 30 mph. Barometer is 29.69" and falling at 5:00 pm EDT. I think County EOC's are dropping the ball here on the west coast. Many are expecting wind gusts of tropical storm force and nothing more. Many are going to be stunned at the hurricane force winds and all the damage that's going to occur, plus west coast storm surge.
Be Safe,
Thomas Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL,
We've also had gusts to 30 in Naples. Collier Emergency Mgt projected tropical storm force winds and I think Lee County did the same.
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Scottsvb's forecast
|
it's a little breezy up here in Palm Coast - Flagler County. Brief mists of rain fell earlier, now just patches of clouds and occassional breezes in the 20mph range.
You folks who contribute here are awesome. Even though we are getting better local weather media coverage for this storm than the past 2 (because citizens complained!) I rely on NHC and the links and comments here as well.
thanks
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FNC
|
Re: FOX...right now they're showing the Ben Affleck, I mean Scott Peterson trial...was that FNC? Or was the hurricane coverage just a quickie update?
OK, just got an update...the announcer just said Hurricane Jeanne will make landfall in Florida sometime this evening and could become a major hurricane at that time...
"could" become? It's already a major...does anyone think this was a mistake or a deliberate attempt to woo back viewers?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 09:57 PM |
|
|
|
Current Conditions
|
Winds sustained 26 mph, gusts to 44 mph
Rainfall Total 0.89"
Pressure 29.30" falling
A real nasty band is coming in and I will probably loose power soon.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FNC
|
Our announcer just said we would begin getting hurricane-force winds after midnight. I'm thinking they're gonna be starting a little earlier than that, but now I have that song stuck in my head...
After midnight, we're gonna let it all hang down.
After midnight, we're gonna chug-a-lug and shout.
We're gonna stimulate some action;
We're gonna get some satisfaction.
We're gonna find out what it is all about.
No bonus points for you...how many versions of that song did Clapton do?
Wasn't lookin for any... Just complaining... just hoping it's not the last song I hear before the power goes out...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
Winds sustained 26 mph, gusts to 44 mph
Rainfall Total 0.89"
Pressure 29.30" falling
A real nasty band is coming in and I will probably loose power soon.
Two things of interest...sometime after WXMAN RICHIE loses power, he's going to phone me so I can post some (or maybe one) update on the conditions...he's also going to be giving an interview to Jim Williams of hurricanecity.com...at 11:00ish.
May have to leave the boards to listen to the live broadcast...
I made sure to tell him to remind Jim how we kicked his a$$ in the poll...hope everybody voted ONCE
The $h!+ seems to be starting to hit the fan now....good luck guys and hunker down! As Chief Science Officer Spock said "DO NOT GO OUT DURING THE STORM"
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FNC
|
lmfao
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:09 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
78°F
Light Rain and Breezy Feels Like:
80°F
Dew Point: 74°F
Humidity: 87%
Visibility: 3.0 miles
Pressure: 29.66 inches
Wind: From the North at 25 gusting to 32 mph
As reported from Orlando International Airport at 4:53 PM
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:12 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I posted Ed's notes tonight on the main article, he's leaning more north than I am, but I'm tending to think the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
These hurricane sites aren't a competition. Jim Williams I have a lot of respect for and do like Hurricane City a lot. So honestly the poll doesn't mean much to me. You gotta remember I made this site originally for me to have a lot of info at my fingertips and that line of thought really hasn't changed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:13 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Jeanne is flying...! Remember it was at this time yesterday the prediction was for a Sunday 6:00 a.m. landfall! Somebody predicted it woud be ahead of shedule (LakeToho?) and man is she ever...!
And the northward wobble appeared to be just that. Measuring north & south eyewall averages for two complete turns indicates a course of 275, maybe 285 max... that's all I'm getting here.
AdmittedHacker
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Yeah well I wish I wasnt right on that one..
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I'll be on Hurricane City between 8-11 pm, not sure of exact time. He is going to call me. Don't worry Mike, I am not going to say anything about the poll.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
This storm is getting stronger, and it appears that it is right on track.. Looks like as this thing gets closer to the coast, its getting a more northward component.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:19 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Power's flickering on and off here, not much longer until we're out for good. Most of my family lives in Singer Island or coastal Jupiter, so we're all camped out here in Jupiter farms 10 miles inland (in a very solid home). The news has a disgusting amount of interviews with people on barrier islands, who after Frances, are insisting on staying. I have a sick feeling there's going to be a lot more direct storm-related casualties than with the other three
Stay safe everybody, catch you on the flip side!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
I posted Ed's notes tonight on the main article, he's leaning more north than I am, but I'm tending to think the answer lies somewhere in the middle.
These hurricane sites aren't a competition. Jim Williams I have a lot of respect for and do like Hurricane City a lot. So honestly the poll doesn't mean much to me. You gotta remember I made this site originally for me to have a lot of info at my fingertips and that line of thought really hasn't changed.
Ahem...
Well, I love JimW's site (not his boards, however, too damn confusing), he does have a lot of stuff, some of which you can't get here (like city history/cams/radio/etc). When I have six or seven windows open, CFHC is always the first, but there are many others...
I usually keep CFHC, Accuwx pro, Hurricane City, Wunderground, SSD, NRL, and then a window I jump from site to site.
They're all good and should all be used in conjunction with CFHC...although I believe everyone of those sites Mike has provided a link to. Boatus and some of the college sites are great too. I've got more damn bookmarks than I can shake a stick at.
Anyway, while I agree that it's not a "competition" it is nice to be winning the poll!
If WXMAN RICHIE didn't already post this, his call will be between 8 & 11...if he calls me first, I'll try to narrow that timeframe...
Fasten yo' seatbelts
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:25 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
Power's flickering on and off here, not much longer until we're out for good. Most of my family lives in Singer Island or coastal Jupiter, so we're all camped out here in Jupiter farms 10 miles inland (in a very solid home). The news has a disgusting amount of interviews with people on barrier islands, who after Frances, are insisting on staying. I have a sick feeling there's going to be a lot more direct storm-related casualties than with the other three
Stay safe everybody, catch you on the flip side!
I agree, I'm afraid there are going to be some very tragic Florida reports on this storm in the days to come. We have ten people here -- several refugees from Frances damaged homes. Wind and rain are really starting to roll here -- I can't believe I still have power, but we are starting to flicker too.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:29 PM |
|
|
|
Hunker Down!
|
Emergency update for the HD drinking game!!
Add the keyword "complacent" to the drink list. They're saying it far more often than the other two
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I want to thank you all for all of your help & info during Ivan. I am in NE Georgia. Our county had 4 or more tornadoes that Ivan brought through..and lots of flooding. Anyone want to take a stab at what we can expect again here? I'm really hoping its not like last Thursday. It was very scary.
Thanks again.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:Quote:
Power's flickering on and off here, not much longer until we're out for good. Most of my family lives in Singer Island or coastal Jupiter, so we're all camped out here in Jupiter farms 10 miles inland (in a very solid home). The news has a disgusting amount of interviews with people on barrier islands, who after Frances, are insisting on staying. I have a sick feeling there's going to be a lot more direct storm-related casualties than with the other three
Stay safe everybody, catch you on the flip side!
I agree, I'm afraid there are going to be some very tragic Florida reports on this storm in the days to come. We have ten people here -- several refugees from Frances damaged homes. Wind and rain are really starting to roll here -- I can't believe I still have power, but we are starting to flicker too.
Please forgive any perceived insensitivity...trust me...I'm aching for all you guys up here...
But with all that FL has been through, how could people not be as worried with this monster as they should? I know...I know. I saw the interviews with those who weathered Frances...
This is going to make Frances look like a FRIGGIN' PICNIC...
I feel so bad for those who aren't giving Jeanne the utmost respect...I'm sure everyone who reads these boards took every possible precaution and told anyone who would listen how bad this was going to be...
I hoped to be wrong, but both me and Scott said CAT III at landfall on sat/sun...
After a season like this, how could people NOT be ready for this...I feel so horrible...
Sorry for the mini-rant...everyone in her path godspeed...and to anyone who didn't fully prepare...you really have my prayers because you're going to need them.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:34 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I'm disgusted with those interviews of people who should be evacuating but are not. Some stay behind just so they can be on TV. Doesn't the media have any ethics in this regard?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:35 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Well, I have shifted into hunker down and wait mode. Turned on some of the football games for a break from the coverage. I am sure later tonight I will be glued to the coverage. Hopefully has all of their preps done and evacuated if they needed too. The evacuation door is just about closed. Path still looks like it will bring the worst of the storm to my location when it gets here. Planning on about five to seven days of no power. Took my final pre-hurricane shower. Getting ready to crank the AC up and turn the fridge and freezer to max. Tub is filled with water and we have another 20 gallons in reserve. 40 gallons of gas for the generator. 10 cans of chef boyarde and a ton of camp cooking gas. Not much else to do now bust sit and wait. At least aI have some college football to pass the time for a bit.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:37 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Ronn.. gusts here to 42 at about 2:30.. my home is on the Intracoastal and the back faces north and we are on the point so that may have something to do with the higher gusts tunneling through here. Rather calm now.
One note.. there was a wonderful rainbow in the skies about 4:00 today. Although a very pretty sight in the ENE skies from me, it sort of made me feel like it was an oblivious warning -- maybe something like 'ok Jeanne, here is where you go'.
BTW, anyone have a neighbor like mine who has a couple of propane tanks (like used for a grill) laying in the backyard with a host of other debris waiting to become missiles?? Last time I went and secured his property before a storm he called the police for trespassing, believe it or not. Uggghh..
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
Sorry for the mini-rant...everyone in her path godspeed...and to anyone who didn't fully prepare...you really have my prayers because you're going to need them.
That's OK rant away, I feel the same way. It's unbelieveable that folks in fragile zones would stay after seeing what Frances did and seeing the pictures from P-cola and Hati. I believe it was Harlon Ellison who said "The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and Stupidity." Too bad we can't run cars on the latter.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:41 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Here we are windy and some light rain from time to time. My son just came from the grocery store he works at saying that people are flooding the store right now trying to buy everything in sight but waited until the last hours before the store closed to do so. I know that these are people who have waited up to 8 hours in food stamp lines this past week to get money for food. So, I imagine that waiting until the last moment to buy food was a hope that they would not have to spend this precious little money on food that under other conditions is simply a waste of good money. There is not as much apathy as it would appear, it is now just a judgement call of where do we go, what do we spend, and how long are we going to have to do this. The fun went out of hurricane season on the day Charley hit and its been no picnic since. The merchants are not even enjoying the profits because they know that this is money that will be lost to later revenue during holiday season. Some of us have already spent christmas party gift money on canned chicken, tuna and beans.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:42 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Im Looking at the sat imagery and Im not seeing any type of north movement! only west. What are your eyes seeing?
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:44 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Jeanne is sending some odd signals this evening that I wish one of our local mets would comment on--if they are lurking tonight.
Latest recon has pressure up 1mb, but satellite and radar presentation look the best it has all day. Also, 951mb should equate to 125-130mph winds, but Jeanne has not been able to equate the pressure to the windspeed. I don't think we are going to be lucky (115mph is nothing to scoff at), but I'm beginning to wonder if that will be as high as she goes. Any thoughts on that?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
What a creep! ugh! glad I live in the woods.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:46 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I agree people in the evac zones should heed the warnings.. but I don't think comparisons between Pensacola devastation and the expected impact of Jeane are valid.. the destruction of P-cola was primarily from the HUGE storm surge, not from the land-falling winds. Storm surge is a MUCH bigger threat in the GOM than on an east coast Atlantic land-falling cane. YES, take it seriously.. YES a CAT 3 will wreak its share of havoc.. but I think Pensacola/Ivan comparisons are stetching things.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Guppie,
Yeah, I'm not seeing the forest for the trees...I'm not down there, I don't know what it's like, I haven't been through it...and I'm sure a lot of you wish you were in my shoes.
The poor guy (mind is drawing a blank, but he helped out with the poll) who needed a generator...is just one glaring example. You folks have been through so much already and here mother nature has again opened the gates of hell.
I've only come to realize in the past few days that people have very little or no money due to the previous storms...I'm sure that has played a role in the decision not to evac.
I never thought it was complacency, couldn't put my finger on one main reason...and it's a combination of factors.
I just feel so bad that they could be come statistics for wont of a few simple things.
I just looked at my "numbers" below...7 hurricanes so far, 6 majors...
The season from hell just keeps giving and giving...
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
nah! a cat 3 is a cat 3! Still can do major damage whether it be flying debree or major storm surge. IMO.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:48 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Same here excecp I'm watching Miami radar... looks pretty much due west at the moment... eye center looks to be heading right at Fort Pierce... areas just north will be devastated with the max winds... would not be surprised to see a few gusts in the 150/160 range... this is one storm I hope people are ready for.... WPB will also get pummeled with the south eye wall as it looks pretty healthy as well... provided it continues on this west track... big question is when it will turn NW.... Tampa looks to be a high priority strike zone as well if this thing doesn't make that expect right turn once inland......
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Yeah - we have several neighbors who have left child's toys outside. Nothing like a Big Wheel through the front window to make you realize what a mistake that could be.
If he calls the cops, call them first - leaving those things outside can be construed as criminal neglect.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:49 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
It's unbelieveable that folks in fragile zones would stay after seeing what Frances did and seeing the pictures from P-cola and Hati. I believe it was Harlon Ellison who said "The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and Stupidity." Too bad we can't run cars on the latter.
Funny, but true. All kidding aside, I agree hurricanes aren't anything to play around with. Scanning the Pensacola paper is an eye-opener.
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:51 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne track images
|
These are based on NHC Advisory 49 forecast coordinates. All the disclaimers that need to be said, have been said.
Be safe everyone.
Close up Path (600x600)
Closer (large image)
Vero Beach (large image)
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
My thoughts exactly on the Tampa scenario. As fast as its moving I cannot see that north turn happening anytime soon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:53 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
A Cat 3 with a 20 ft storm surge is worse than a Cat 3 with a 6 ft storm surge. They're both CAT 3's.. they both do damage... but the storm surge can make a big difference and the Categorization doesn't adjust for severity of Storm Surge. It wasn't WIND that knocked that bridge out of place and it wasn't wind that shoved all those houses in P-Cola into the bay.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
This is true!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:56 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne track images
|
Frank unless this radar loop is wrong or distorted somehow...I agree with you..looks like Ft. Pierce landfall to me...unless they forecast a more northerly motion before landfall. Looks like Broward County will just miss the hurricane force winds.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Ivan pushed CAT V surge ashore as a direct hit. Jeanne has made the wobble/job and continues to do so and hasn't had the time to generate the surge of Ivan, regardless of her cat.
Surge will be significantly less, but this is still a Strong III and possibly a weak four when it landfalls...
It's going to be very bad.
| FelixPuntaGorda |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:57 PM |
|
|
|
Punta Gorda/Charlotte County
|
If anybody is lurking from Charlotte County, we are projected to be within 90 miles of the center. I'm not sure what that means in terms of wind speed, but I think we're in for another rough time here.
Please stay safe everyone.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 10:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
While it's true we won't get Ivan conditions here weather-wise, we have been pre-disastered. I don't think it would take an Ivan to finish ripping up the tarp-covered roofs and trailers that sustained damage.
Would a 3 + 2 = 5? Or a 4+2 = 6? Just (with waht little humor I have left) taking a line from the whitewater kyaking commercial.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:00 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Well if there is any good news it is running out of time to get much stronger.... probably has only 4 hours or so to bomb.... last recon had 951 mb (unless she stalls, and that is not forecasted).... so its pressure is not getting any lower at the moment, still it could get stronger as long as its over the warm waters... coming in at low tide will obviously help with surge...... maybe she stay at Cat 3.... hopefully.... still stranger things have happend.... a powerful storm and will do great damage....
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:00 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne track images
|
psu's animation kind of shows a Melbourne hit to me if I am reading it right..
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I thought the same thing earlier today...I didn't think it was all that funny, though.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I think she could very well reach cat 4 status, but prob not offical because of the consevative side of the NHC that has been shown this year. 1mb is nothing for a hurricane, it might have just be recorded at a slightly different location. In my opinion the NHC or any hurricane forecaster agency for this matter should always go with the higher side to the wind forecast, it could make the difference between a CAT 3 and CAT 4 and the decison to evacuate.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:01 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
It's also worth noting that even though Frances was a Cat 2 lots of the damage hasn't been thoroughly repaired. Roofs, especially didn't need another storm this soon.
Cumulative damage may have a serious effect.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:03 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
THAT is a great point! The cumulative effect of multiple storms feels equal to CAT 5. SHEESH!! We've been arguing with a California relative who happens to be in town for this thing. She said "give me earthquakes" any day! In some ways, I see her point.. the days of anxiety and physical labor dealing with plywood and lawn furniture are SO wearing. I was blessed to sustain no real damage in Charley and Frances and praying my luck hasn't run out with Jeane. But for my friends who already have blue tarp on their roof.. that Cat 3 might as well be a 5!! Best wishes to all! Getting power flickers now here in Rockledge (East Central FL). Gust of around 45 mph.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:05 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Rick, I certainly won't argue your well stated point... no doubt in my mind Ivan brought with it a Cat 4/5 storm surge... just tremendous damage, and reminded many that I've talked to on the MS coast who saw the pixs coming out of the panhandle of another great storm with a tremendous surge ... Camille.... I know I had Camille flashbacks for several days after watching to much TV on Ivan's incredible damage... each hurricane is different... However, I have no doubt Jeanne will make its mark in history for the areas it will impact
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Keith,
If people haven't yet evacuated, there's probably no time left to do so now...so far NHC has been spot on with each update; the difference between a weak IV & strong III? maybe 5 mph...
Unfortunately it looks like she's gaining some strength as she seems to be rushing to completion her ERC...fortunately, it looks like she will hit at fairly low tide...
Problem is, while surge may "only" be 15' or so, you've got some 30' waves being generated, and these beaches have been devastated...all the structures are weakened from Frances and it won't take nearly as much to destroy stuff as it would if Florida hadn't already been thrashed 3 weeks ago.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Power starting to go out periodically. Same thing happened with Frances.
I'll be offline within a few hours I'm sure.
Fun?
At least the cable has stayed on longer than last time
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:09 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
im guessing 130-135 when this thing hits. Thougts?
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:12 PM |
|
|
|
tide levels
|
I agree with Phil. Cape Canaveral high tide 6:08 pm tonight and 6:28 am tomorrow. That should help with surge somewhat--yes?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:12 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
7 p.m. NHC Advisory indicates true westward movement since the 5:00 p.m. update... she stayed right at Lat 27.1. Speed over the last two hours was a little over 9 mph. Seems to have slowed just a tad...
AdmittedHacker
(still trying to think up a witty phrase to insert here, but too busy trying to plan the most appropriate course for panic right now...)
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:13 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
late few frame of the radar showed a little hint of a wnw or north of due west motion... still, its gained just a touch a latitude over the past hour or so, not much... but some..
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Punta Gorda/Charlotte County
|
Quote:
If anybody is lurking from Charlotte County, we are projected to be within 90 miles of the center. I'm not sure what that means in terms of wind speed, but I think we're in for another rough time here.
Please stay safe everyone.
Agreed there, stay safe... here in Cape Coral, my barometer is now down to 29.59 inches and still falling (thankfully not rapidly), we've had a couple of squally episodes already since about 4PM. I'm more concerned at this point about my friends in WPB, as one of them just get their power restored about 5 days ago. To all of you in the direct path, our prayers are with you.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:15 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I would have agreed with that assessment this morning, but for whatever reason, Jeanne continues to be an underachiever as it relates to windspeed in correlation with her pressure. I still think she can get to 125mph by landfall, but unless something drastic occurs, she is quickly running out of time to get any stronger. That being said, its going to take some time to spin down from that low pressure, so she may maintain intensity inland a little longer than Frances did.
Conditions in East Orlando, breezy and cloudy. Wind gusts to about 30mph. No rain for the last 2.5 hours.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:16 PM |
|
|
|
WV Loop from NRL
|
WV Loop
Think this says it all, unfortunately...
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Max Mayfield is on Channel 6 right now, said landfall between Fort Pierce and Vero Beach... They are still sticking to their NW turn..
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:18 PM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda/Charlotte County
|
Quote:
If anybody is lurking from Charlotte County, we are projected to be within 90 miles of the center. I'm not sure what that means in terms of wind speed, but I think we're in for another rough time here.
Felix - sending lots of good wishes and prayers to all in Charlotte County. Stay safe!
Karen
Please stay safe everyone.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:20 PM |
|
Re: WV Loop from NRL
|
Yep... it does say it all. She looks perfect. Very bad for us all...
AdmittedHacker
(nothing here yet....)
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:21 PM |
|
I'm Here
|
Evenin' Everyone. I'm here now. I am at work in East Orange County. I made it safe and sound. After watching the forecast track this morning, my husband and I decided to send him and the kids to Tampa. But, with what you guys are saying about her forward speed and not making the northern turn, I am getting very worried.
Since I am the only one from my shift that has shown up, they have designated me the Station Watch Officer. I can keep you all updated on the current conditions here in East Orange County. We have a big nice new generator and will be online all night. I have to listen to the radio and keep track of my personnel anyway.
Good Luck to everyone in Florida tonight..... I'm thinking about everyone and we will be responding to help as soon as it is safe to do so.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:24 PM |
|
|
|
MElbourne
|
JUst spoke to son at FIT in Melbourne. POwer out. THey went to the beach an hour ago and waves were to whats left of the dunes.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:24 PM |
|
Re: Punta Gorda/Charlotte County
|
Max wind speed forecast for Charlotte Cty is 20-30 mph with gusts around 50. Maybe a little more tomorrow AM, but nothing like with Charley........ not trying to be pollyanish; just a little hope for everyone in the area.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:25 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Watching the Melbourne radar loop.. sure looks like it is still maintaining a due West motion.. now only about 60miles east of Stuart FL.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM |
|
|
|
This is just ridiculous...
|
In case anyone hadn't heard, the Steeler/Phish game has been moved to 8:30 tomorrow.
F---in priorities, man...and the almighty $.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM |
|
Re: I'm Here
|
Thank you for all that you are willing to do. I am not in your county but near by. I will look for anything you have to offer as long as we have power here. Thanks again.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:26 PM |
|
GOM??
|
How come every damn 12Z model run I've seen has the thing getting in the Gulf? What gives?
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:27 PM |
|
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:Quote:
It's unbelieveable that folks in fragile zones would stay after seeing what Frances did and seeing the pictures from P-cola and Hati. I believe it was Harlon Ellison who said "The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and Stupidity." Too bad we can't run cars on the latter.
It's funny that those of you who haven't been through them are the ones criticizing those who have and who now refuse to leave. I was in Arcadia for Charley losing trees, roof, and stepping out into an alien world after it passed. I was in Bradenton for Frances without power for a week, and I fled to Tennessee for Ivan where 4 trees fell right outside the house from the high winds (go figure). My parents' home on Abaco was destroyed, and has just been struck again. I am SICK to death of running from them. My child has missed more school than he can afford. I'm completely out of money from spending thousands more than my normal budget on damage repairs, evacuations, etc.
Charley was a Cat 4 when he passed over my head in Arcadia and it was a complete and total nightmare. So I ran from them after that. But you know what? I'm sick to death of running and can't afford to do it anymore. I am staying right where I am, house boarded up, generator ready, fresh water in good supply. I'm going to pray. And if God wishes to spare me he will do so. If not, then it was meant to be. And I've never been overly religious, but at this point down here we have little left but that.
So before you point fingers at the decisions made by people who have now been through three "nasties", try to consider that they might have litttle choice at this point.
-Bev
>> Hurricane Magnet <<
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:28 PM |
|
Re: GOM??
|
The model has a problem with ridges and has a left sided bias. (I hope)
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM??
|
Quote:
How come every damn 12Z model run I've seen has the thing getting in the Gulf? What gives?
Here's why:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:30 PM |
|
Re: I'm Here
|
It just occurred to me that this is a brand new fire station and they haven't installed our weather station yet. I do however have WeatherBug, so I can go with that for ya.
Right now we have sustained winds about 25 mph, gusting to 30 so far. Ugh.... it's going to be a long night.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:30 PM |
|
|
|
Getting Intense
|
Winds gusting to 52 mph, 1.16" rain, 29.16" and still falling rapidly. Can't believe the power is still on.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:31 PM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Looks like another west wobble...just before landfall? Landfall from Stuart to Vero....eye diameter respectively
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_HUR/animauto.html
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:33 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:Quote:Quote:
It's unbelieveable that folks in fragile zones would stay after seeing what Frances did and seeing the pictures from P-cola and Hati. I believe it was Harlon Ellison who said "The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and Stupidity." Too bad we can't run cars on the latter.
It's funny that those of you who haven't been through them are the ones criticizing those who have and who now refuse to leave. I was in Arcadia for Charley losing trees, roof, and stepping out into an alien world after it passed. I was in Bradenton for Frances without power for a week, and I fled to Tennessee for Ivan where 4 trees fell right outside the house from the high winds (go figure). My parents' home on Abaco was destroyed, and has just been struck again. I am SICK to death of running from them. My child has missed more school than he can afford. I'm completely out of money from spending thousands more than my normal budget on damage repairs, evacuations, etc.
Charley was a Cat 4 when he passed over my head in Arcadia and it was a complete and total nightmare. So I ran from them after that. But you know what? I'm sick to death of running and can't afford to do it anymore. I am staying right where I am, house boarded up, generator ready, fresh water in good supply. I'm going to pray. And if God wishes to spare me he will do so. If not, then it was meant to be. And I've never been overly religious, but at this point down here we have little left but that.
So before you point fingers at the decisions made by people who have now been through three "nasties", try to consider that they might have litttle choice at this point.
-Bev
>> Hurricane Magnet <<
Bev - I hope that you have lost your magnetic charge. This season has required people to make very difficult decisions. My heart goes out to all who have been impacted and you'll stay in my prayers. Please be sure to stop back after the storm and check in.
Karen
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:34 PM |
|
Re: GOM??
|
OK Phil, humor me!!
The storm is outracing the trough to pull it northward, thus a more western track? Am I close?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:34 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
If I extrapolated the track of the northern eyewall correctly.
At the current heading, the northern eyewall should come ashore at Vero Beach. The southern side of the eyewall would then come ashore at Stuart. That's a distance of about 30 miles.
These are approximations, and are not from NHC !!
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Movement is still westward. I think the recent hint of a north of due west motion was just the temporary east-west elongation/distortion of the eye. I still have yet to see a definitive track change to the WNW. Most of the latitude gained today was from the early afternoon WNW wobble. The movement will change by tomorrow morning however, probably just after it landfalls between Ft. Pierce and Port St. Lucie.
Currently at my location, winds are sustained at about 15mph with gusts to 25mph. We are having some fringe rainbands, but nothing that has produced a measurable accumulation. Pressure has been holding at 29.71in through the evening. I anticipate a rapid deterioration here in the Tampa Bay area after 2am, with conditions equalling or slightly exceeding the impact of Frances.
I will post updates tomorrow morning so long as the power grid permits. It seems to only take 35mph gusts to lose power here.
Ronn
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:38 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I think that Max may be right. High pressure ridge has again forced a more west northwest track, so Ft Pierce to Vero seems reasonable. Amazing to think that the eye is so close and there are still a few patches of blue sky. No rain at the moment. Highest gust at the house so far has been 33mph. MLB has recorded 48mph and they are just 10 miles to the southeast of my location. Clouds really flying by overhead. Bettye and I are all boarded up and ready to ride it out. I think that Cat II at landfall is about as strong as this one will get - still having dry air entrained into the system from the north. Edge of core is probably still about an hour or two away from us but is already moving inland down to the south. I'll pop in from time to time as long as the power holds out.
Cheers,
ED
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM??
|
Quote:
OK Phil, humor me!!
I just PMed WXMAN RICHIE...we both agree this one is headed for the GOM...then...Panhandle.
Unless the NHC has some supersecret reason for this puppy to turn when it does...
I've only got two eyes, but where is that trof? Jeanne keeps entraining the dry air to her west and the trof can't move...can't get into position...can't turn her north...
She's also moving at a pretty good rate of speed so inland areas will definitely feel it worse than Frances.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I've become very good at reading the WV loops this season...they're not the be all and end all, but they are, IMHO, an amateurs best friend...
EDIT: Of course this post has to follow the one from ED...ready for my crow now...maybe ED can tell me why I'm wrong...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:39 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I keep thinking this is Charley redux as far as the NHC and reality. They kept saying Tampa while Radar was showing the move to Port Charlotte. Now Max Mayfield is sticking to a South Brevard/N. Indian River County landfall while Radar sure looks like a St Lucie Co./Indian River County landfall. They sure seem stubborn in the hours between their "official track" pronouncements.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:43 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Ok, so I posted that, and NOW the eye seems to have doubled in size so NHC may get it right after all..that eye is huge now on radar. Pass the crow?
!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:44 PM |
|
Re: tide levels
|
At a particular location along a coastline, the total water level is determined by four main factors: (1) wind and pressure induced sea level rise or fall (i.e., the storm surge consisting of currents, waves, and sea level slopes); (2) the astronomical tides; (3) the annual steric adjustment of the ocean basins; and (4) fresh water input derived from precipitation, land runoff and river/estuary discharge. The sum of (1) and (2) is usually referred to as the storm tide.
So yes, the total water level will be less at low tide.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:46 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I think the inner eyewall is collapsing on the east side. Which means...well, I don't know what it will mean as it relates to final track of this storm, but it could weaken it a bit if its starting a new ERC.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:46 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
I have seen the devastation you endured. Good friend owns Sunny Breeze Palms GC between Arcadia & Punta G. My heart sank & tears when I read your post.
God Bless...
You are correct... Faith is sometimes all we have
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
In an earlier post I gave an extrapolated landfall. That area, from Vero Beach to Stuart, was based on the long side of the now elliptical eye.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Landfall in north Indian River County vs south Indian River County is a difference of less than 30 miles. Big deal if they end up being a little off. This is a hurricane with a 40 mile-wide eye! C'mon folks... Let's watch the nit-picking!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:48 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
WEll, things are definitely picking up in Broward County....WXMAN how are things up in Bonton...i imagine you are getting 50mph+
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM??
|
Remember the survey I posted earlier about making to the GOM?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:49 PM |
|
Re: GOM??
|
I'm in west central Georgia, and our pressure has been rapidly falling. I think you are right and that ridge isn't going to have anywhere near the effect they are predicting. We've dropped from 30.06 to 29.90 in the last two hours. On a less scientific level, I get migraines with barometric pressure changes, and the worse the weather, the worse the headache. Ivan gave me a week long migraine that I just got rid of, and now my head is starting to hurt again.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:51 PM |
|
Volusia Update
|
Raining here. A bit squally.
Volusia County has closed schools for Monday but haven't seen any info about DBCC. Also, mandatory evacs for anyone east of the Halifax, in low-lying areas and mobile homes. VOTRAN is helping to evacuate those people but will only be running until 8. Mandatory curfew in effect in the evacuated areas from 8pm-6am.
Be safe!
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:53 PM |
|
Re: GOM??
|
Thanks Phil. Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.......................I think!!!!
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Those of you with generators. DO NOT bring them inside. A woman died here 2 days ago, after doing just that. Her children were also injured. Not to mention the fact that their mother is now deceased!
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM??
|
Quote:
I just PMed WXMAN RICHIE...we both agree this one is headed for the GOM...then...Panhandle.
Such a path would not be good for my area. People will be caught off guard if Jeanne tracks farther south and brings hurricane force gusts to my county. There is ONLY a voluntary evacuation for mobile home residents in Pinellas County, even though we are under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch.
I think the NHC's 5pm track handles the influence of the trough better than the previous forecasts. Their turn to the NW and N is not as sharp as it was before.
I agree that the trough in the central US is not very impressive. I think the models have consistently overdone its influence on the ridge north of Jeanne. In fact, throughout this season, the models have consistently had a rightward bias in the storms that have affected Florida. With this said, all the trough must do is weaken the ridge enough to allow a NW to N motion. I think this will happen. The NOGAPS has by far been the best performing model up to this point with its consistently farther south track. I see no reason to disagree with it now. Jeanne may enter the GOM, but will not track any farther west than Frances, in my opinion.
I'm not a met, but that is the best I can make of the current situation.
Ronn
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:54 PM |
|
Re: Volusia Update
|
wind picking up in Cape Canaveral. I am really glad that high tide has passed. The water is in the parking areas of some of the streets here. Not a lot of rain. My brother in PT St John had a small tornado about 45 minutes ago
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Very similar stories in Fl with respect to the Generators, you don't need them till the power is out, an not right away
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
I think the inner eyewall is collapsing on the east side. Which means...well, I don't know what it will mean as it relates to final track of this storm, but it could weaken it a bit if its starting a new ERC.
Jeanne is still having a problem with dry air entrainment, as Ed mentioned. I think Jeanne will remain a 115mph storm through landfall.
Ronn
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM??
|
where did you predict its exit? Thanks!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Volusia Update
|
Well all I can say is Max Mayfield is sticking with his track.. Not sure if that is just attempting to portray a constistent message or if he believe that it really will track that way.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:58 PM |
|
Re: Current Conditions
|
Quote:
It's funny that those of you who haven't been through them are the ones criticizing those who have and who now refuse to leave. I was in Arcadia for Charley losing trees, roof, and stepping out into an alien world after it passed. I was in Bradenton for Frances without power for a week, and I fled to Tennessee for Ivan where 4 trees fell right outside the house from the high winds (go figure). My parents' home on Abaco was destroyed, and has just been struck again. I am SICK to death of running from them. My child has missed more school than he can afford. I'm completely out of money from spending thousands more than my normal budget on damage repairs, evacuations, etc.
So before you point fingers at the decisions made by people who have now been through three "nasties", try to consider that they might have litttle choice at this point.
-Bev
>> Hurricane Magnet <<
Oh, Dear Bev, you've really been through it. I'm sorry my location didn't tell you more about me. I've lived in Fla, but, more importantly, I went through Super-typhoon Paka. Evacuation isn't an option on Guam. I know how you feel. Hugs to you. I know you're doing the best you can. Be safe. lilyv
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 25 2004 11:59 PM |
|
Re: GOM??
|
Here in S. Ft Myers the sky around sunset was very overcast and the strangest purple-grey color.. very breezy with some light rain. Pressure still falling, now 29.61 with winds at 20 mph and gusts.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:00 AM |
|
|
|
Update
|
Winds 40 gusting 64 mph, 1.18" rain, 29.13" falling
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:01 AM |
|
|
|
Yanks-Sox
|
Only because the game was brought up in a PM...
tied at 1 apiece in the fourth.
Everyone be safe!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:03 AM |
|
|
|
Landfall
|
Looks to me like landfall in Martin or St. Lucie counties. East and west eyewalls there with the north eyewall in Indian River and the south eyewall in Palm Beach counties. 4 counties can see the eyewall at one time during this landfall.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:04 AM |
|
|
|
Blowin' in the Wind...
|
Winds really picking up here in Vero. All of the little oak trees in my yard are down... again! Water startin to pool on the streets. Still have power, cable and phone, but getting warnings that this will not last. Really have been fortunate with outer rain bands so far, but looks like the eye is on it's way! Sustained winds seem like high 30's to low 40's with some really potent gusts now. The light show from arching transformers is starting, so I am REALLY powering down the computer this time. Got the safe room ready (stocked with wine, beer, Jack, and cat food). Keeping in touch with all of my neighbors by walkie talkie. Wish I had a back-up for the computer. Waiting for that NWN turn so that we don't end up on the north side of this thing!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:09 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
They first announced it was postponed. If they were so concerned about playing it, why didn't they play it today?
| SteveieB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:10 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Hey Firefighter Angie,
Are you in the station on Econ, south of Curry Ford???
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Quote:
They first announced it was postponed. If they were so concerned about playing it, why didn't they play it today?
Are the steelers even IN Florida? That could be why they didn't play the game today...
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Quote:
In case anyone hadn't heard, the Steeler/Phish game has been moved to 8:30 tomorrow.
F---in priorities, man...and the almighty $.
Two words LI, "Wayne Huizenga"
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Melbourne
|
FIT generator just bit the dust
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:15 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Supposedly they flew into town last night.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Here's what the NFL site says:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/7722082
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:16 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Quote:Quote:
They first announced it was postponed. If they were so concerned about playing it, why didn't they play it today?
Are the steelers even IN Florida? That could be why they didn't play the game today...
The Steelers came in yesterday, they figured they would play the game when it made sense. Obviously, the weather is worse in Miami today than it will be tomorrow. Should be beautiful weather by kickoff, actually.
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:18 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
Highest gust at the house so far has been 33mph. MLB has recorded 48mph and they are just 10 miles to the southeast of my location. I think that Cat II at landfall is about as strong as this one will get - still having dry air entrained into the system from the north.
Cheers,
ED
I hope to hell you're right. Satellite Beach house did ok with Frances but will we be that lucky a second time!?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
740 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
CORRECTED PRECAUTIONARY INFORMATION
...VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES RECOMMENDED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
***** NFL.COM ***** The Steelers flew in to South Florida on Friday, a day early, because of the hurricane. No info if they are still in Fl or not
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Quote:Quote:Quote:
They first announced it was postponed. If they were so concerned about playing it, why didn't they play it today?
Are the steelers even IN Florida? That could be why they didn't play the game today...
The Steelers came in yesterday, they figured they would play the game when it made sense. Obviously, the weather is worse in Miami today than it will be tomorrow. Should be beautiful weather by kickoff, actually.
Oh, so it's all good then...gee, I guess I shouldn't worry so much...beautiful clear skies at game time...no one will have a care in the world by 8:30. Yay!!!
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
Landfall in north Indian River County vs south Indian River County is a difference of less than 30 miles. Big deal if they end up being a little off. This is a hurricane with a 40 mile-wide eye! C'mon folks... Let's watch the nit-picking!
That may be true in the bigger picture but for me it could possibly be the difference between hurricane force or tropical force winds.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:23 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
love that backyard weather info online.. really neat.. is it one that can be purchased?
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:24 AM |
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Not to be disagree-able, but I really don't come to this board to view NFL schedules. I think we here in Central Florida have a bit more important stuff on our minds right now. Please don't think I'm slamming anyone, it's just that I came online after several hours at work to find out the latest and have just read page after page of discussions on whether football teams are in town and why games are delayed.
--Lou
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:27 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
No, I'm on South Alafaya by Stoneybrook
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Blowin' in the Wind...
|
As it was getting dark in the back yard, all the trees are still up, we are thinking the canal birm is acting as a windbreak, we'll see what's still there in the morning. Looking out front, where the security light across the street is still on, our Frances debris pile has not moved yet, I expect that to change with the back end of Jeanne. Winds are really kicked up, the wind whistling is giving me David flashbacks. He was a little hurricane then, but I rode him out in a trailer in Sebastian when I was 9. Travelled to a shelter during the eye. This probably colors my opinon on evacuations.
Powers about to go.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
recmod : Your right, but some of these folks have been through 3-4 of these storms now and should be able to relax for a moment and that shouldn't cause you any distress. These folks are all professionals and dedicated and will get back to giving you your updates.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:28 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Amen, Lou. Needed to be said and thanks for doing so!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:28 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Good Point. 30 miles can make a big difference in how the winds hit you!
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:28 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
2000 SitRep Cocoa Beach 1/2 miles from the beach: 40 MPH top winds (for last 3 hours - was 30/35 top speed for 5 hours before). Wind due north. Glass at 997 mb. No rain.
Am collecting date on wireless Davis wx station that I remounted this PM, it having snapped off during Frances. Luv solid-state electronics - 30' fall to ground broke the rain bucket, but otherwise still works.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:33 AM |
|
Re: Blowin' in the Wind...
|
Power is stable here so far. The trees have hardly any leaves on them, courtesy of Frances, so they're starting out with an aerodynamic advantage this time. The wind hasn't picked up to the "vibrate the house" level yet. Give it a few hours ...
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:34 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
2000 SitRep Cocoa Beach 1/2 miles from the beach: 40 MPH top winds (for last 3 hours - was 30/35 top speed for 5 hours before). Wind due north. Glass at 997 mb. No rain.
Thank you for the info! House in Satellite Beach just down the road from you. Channel 2 mentioned a possible tornado in Cocoa Beach an hour or so ago. Any sign or news of that?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:35 AM |
|
|
|
Sorry Lou
|
Imagine what it's like having to read 300 posts in the morning before and sometime during work to make sure something that shouldn't be posted wasn't...I can empathize, especially now.
Things tend to snowball during the stressful times...I couldn't edit them fast enough anyway.
I've tried to throw up as much relevant info as I can, sat & wv loops, if someone needs a storm surge map, or something, I do my best.
When there are 600 people on line or more at one time, stuff that is not relevant is going to get through...
I agree with you about relevance and I hope we all try to keep it strictly on the weather from now on.
Thanks for your understanding.
--A New York Yankee in King Florida's Court
| SteveieB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:35 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Angie,
Thanks for the reply. My folks live off of Chickasaw, south of Curry Ford. Would have been interesting to hear from you what is going in that area.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:36 AM |
|
|
|
MLB
|
CArol what part of Melbourne you in?
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
FYI baro is now at 29.55 and still falling, fell 3 points in the last 20 minutes
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
local mets here are finally saying no turn happening. expected to have max mayfield on soon to explain. there may not be one! everyone in the Tampa Bay area needs to observe closely.
| sthorne |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Blowin' in the Wind...
|
Our big old oaks in the back yard were just starting to get new leaf buds. Will see if they are there in the morning.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
very windy with sudden gusts here in st cloud. boarded up and got the tv loud so i dont have to hear the wind whistle
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:44 AM |
North Central Florida
|
Any idea what kind of winds we may be looking at in the Ocala/Marion County area? Earlier the track had it going right over us, now it looks like it might be to the west if it makes the turn north. Can anyone give me a guesstimate?
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:48 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Sent in PM.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:48 AM |
|
Re: MLB
|
About as far inland as FIT, but about 10 miles to the north. Near Eau Gallie.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:49 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Lou,
I agree. We are facing a possible cat3 landfall on a location that recently dealt with another landfall, and these fools are talking about football! So I guess it is more important when and if the Dolphins play than the safety of people in the path of Jeanne?
Bill
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:49 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
I'm thinking that it's going to exit south of Tampa and into the GOM. Based on what we went through with Frances and it's size, I'm beginning to hope that we may not even see the main feeder bands, much less a direct hit as was predicted this morning.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
who really honestly cares about football at this notion in time. protecting my family and house is way more important
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Update
|
Winds now gusting to 74 mph, 29.07 falling, 1.37" rain
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
Would be interesting in hearing what Max has to say, as he was just on television in Orlando a while ago showing the turn. BTW.. No turn will take it right to you Parrish, thats bad news for you..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:53 AM |
|
Daytona Bridges
|
Bridges have been closed and are being patrolled. You can only go across if you live there or have legitimate business. Not closed completely as of yet.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:54 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
This was one of the poss forecasts by scottsvb. he stated that he wasnt 100% sure that jeanne wouldnt exit around sarasota into the gulf.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
WXMAN how was that squall?? It's coming down here now in Broward
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Re tornado: negats in CCB. Was confirmed touch-down in Port St John per Ch13.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
Quote:
In case anyone hadn't heard, the Steeler/Phish game has been moved to 8:30 tomorrow.
F---in priorities, man...and the almighty $.
you started it PHIL maybe you can stop it ???? But I do agree with your stress relief comment
| SteveieB |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:55 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
For those who keep asking about winds in their area, go the National Weather Service that serves your area. They have wind graphs and text forecast available that tell you what to expect. Very accurate for Frances for me. They adjust the forecast the NHC changes their forecast for the storm.
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:56 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
Quote:
I'm thinking that it's going to exit south of Tampa and into the GOM. Based on what we went through with Frances and it's size, I'm beginning to hope that we may not even see the main feeder bands, much less a direct hit as was predicted this morning.
So are you thinking the winds won't be as bad as during Frances?
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:56 AM |
|
|
Re: Update
|
Thank Goodness......there is somebody else down here...I just got back online...my laptop died!
the winds are strong ans the rain is coming down.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:57 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
What turn? It is not turning.
Bill
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:57 AM |
|
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
Watching CNN and in WPB, I believe and it looks like that its raining so hard that it looks like someone is taking buckets and pouring them out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM |
|
DBCC
|
DBCC closed Monday.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
At my house in Bartow (Polk County), we are having frequent violent gusts of wind. I missed a wind chime in the pre-hurricane pick-up. It is hanging in the tree by my bedroom - its going nuts with the wind. So far, no transformer booms or the crack of limbs!
Channel 8, out of Tampa, is questioning the predicted northernly curve, thinking a continued western path. If so, will change the path from north of my town to south of my town. Not good.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update
|
ST CLOUD FLORIDA
79 °F / 26 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 83%
Dew Point: 73 °F / 23 °C
Wind: 28 mph / 44 km/h from the North
Wind Gust: 38 mph / 61 km/h
Pressure: 29.61 in / 1003 hPa
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 12
Clouds (AGL): Few 1800 ft / 548 m
Mostly Cloudy 2500 ft / 762 m
Overcast 3400 ft / 1036 m
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update
|
It sure is coming down here in NE broward
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:58 AM |
|
Re: This is just ridiculous...
|
I care a little. I have two tickets in my pocket for the game tomorrow. Unfortunatly, I am sitting here in my house in east Orlando waiting to get the S#@T ripped out of my house...
In the big picture it doesn't matter, but then again sometimes the little stuff in life can make a difference...
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:59 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
no kidding! Weve stayed here through all 3 and have faired well. Im surrounde by very old oak trees in a well built wood frame home but never the less its wood! My parents are in a concrete structure but on very open land (tornadoes?). Well see what Mayfield says. seems like theres a wait to get him on.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 12:59 AM |
Re: Sorry Lou
|
But the NHC said it would turn, so it has to doesn't it?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:00 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
South of Tampa is a very unlikely exit point. The extrapolated motion that i see on radar easily takes it north of Tampa bay to near the Spring Hill/Weekie Wachie area. There is a wnw movement. Not a due west movemnt in the loop.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:00 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
I'm beginning to think it'll make the turn when part of the eye is already on land.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
the last couple of loops of radar show a north componant. Maybe a jog, but a jog affects a lot of people.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update
|
http://www.n4ziq.com/P2kdata.htm
current conditions here
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
yeah thats what i say. maybe when the eye comes onshore it will turn?
| phamton |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:02 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
Angie,
Thanks for the reply. My folks live off of Chickasaw, south of Curry Ford. Would have been interesting to hear from you what is going in that area.
Not a meterologist nor do I play one on tv, but I do live on Chickasaw and Curry Ford road in Orlando. We still have electricity and are not even having flickers or brownouts yet. Barometer 30.3, temp. 76F, some light rain earlier but none now, some wind gusts I'm estimating at about 20-25 mph, Cable tv and cable internet still working. My measurements may not be accurate as my barometer is just one of those household kind you can get at Lowes or Walmart as a Christmas present.
Things are realtively calm right now with occassional wind gusts.
My husband and I are teachers and he helped at a shelter for Frances. The shelter was at Liberty Middle School where he teaches on Chicksaw near CurryFord. That shelter is not open this time as there aren't as many people evacuating to Orlando as during Frances.
Bev
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:02 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
CNN just came on with a turn north, tracking up the coast.
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:03 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
If Jeanne exits south of Tampa and tracks up into the big bend area, no , we won't experience what we had in Frances. However, I have my doubts it will go that far from us. If it makes you feel better, I don't think we will experience anything worse than we got from Frances. The plus side of that is that everything blew down already from those wind speeds.
However, just 12 hours ago it was pointed right at us. 12 hours from now it may be again. I'm cautiously hopeful right now that Jeanne will give us a miss, but I'm not letting my guard down at all.
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
I hope so...this flickering of lights and wind gusts are NOT fun
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
A long night ahead...
|
If it tracks to the south of me (Clearwater, On the bayside, near the Causeway), I'm going to have to evac sometime to night, when the Frances came through on the north, I had water surround my house. A trek to the south will flood me out. There's no other way to look at it.
I hope tampa is awake at 11pm when the NHC admits that the storm may not turn... if they don't put up huricane warnings for the area I'm going to be very upset. oh Well
Chin up as they say
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update
|
Latest update is 9 PM EDT position...27.2 N... 79.5 W. Movement
toward...west to west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 951 mb.
Seems to have slowed down just a tad and have also gone north a tad..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:04 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
I live in spring hill what do you think the conditions will be here?
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
Re tornado: negats in CCB. Was confirmed touch-down in Port St John per Ch13.
Glad to hear that. Don't need tornadoes touching down on top of everything else.
| mud1967 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:07 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
What will Tallahassee be dealing with?
If GOM will it get worse for us?
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Gusting pretty good in Palm Bay right now. Still wondering how it's gonna be here. Everyone news station is saying something different. (Palm Bay is just south of Melbourne). Can anyone tell me how bad its gonna be?
| Terri |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:08 AM |
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
Quote:
I'm beginning to think it'll make the turn when part of the eye is already on land.
That's exactly what I just heard on TWC. They are still saying the turn will happen once the eye is over land.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:08 AM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
about 9 ish here, we still have power and getting quite windy, crossing fingers that we keep power
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:09 AM |
|
Double Eyewall?
|
Tom Terry of Channel 9 is talking about a double eyewall. Can someone explain what this means?
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:11 AM |
|
Re: A long night ahead...
|
My sister lives in Tampa. I called her yesterday after reading all the posts on this site to tell her to pay close attention. Talked with her tonight and she said they were evacuting mobiles, but I don't know about the low lying areas. She is in a flood zone, and they didn't post an evacution for her area.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
better to see us with hehe..just a bit of humor
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:12 AM |
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
Quote:
Tom Terry of Channel 9 is talking about a double eyewall. Can someone explain what this means?
He's talking about the ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) that Phil has been talking about. Basically, the eyewall is being rebuilt, which seems to be resulting in a smaller eyewall, which may result in a stronger storm. She's running out of water to strengthen in, however.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:13 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
Jim Williams is out of power, a friend of mine in Palm Beach gardens went out of power, and the guy Jim was talking to in Stuart went out of power to, so it's hitting there pretty hard right now.
(They all went about the same time)
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
I think the worst conditions will be strong tropical storm by the time it gets to that area. I still feel the storm will pass slightly to the east of the Spring Hill area, though. I see no way this storm cuts south or over Tampa. I would be shocked if it is not North and east of Tampa.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
sick liz sick
but chucking non the less about spending big bucks to drop my child off in time for all 4 of them....
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:
Can anyone tell me how bad its gonna be?
Truth-be-told, no. General condition seems pretty clear now (gnarly), though time-of-turn will effect this. But the micro-wx at your particular location is not predictable. Possible tornadoes are biggest wild card for folks not at the DGZ.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:15 AM |
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
What about the gulfstream, or has it already hit it?
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:15 AM |
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
Jim Cantori just mentioned Spring Hill on the air. Said it will probably be worse than Frances in that area.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:16 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
Based on latest Melbourne radar images (granted it's just a few frames) but as that new eyewall has tightened up it DOES look like it's starting more of a NNW movement.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:17 AM |
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
A double eye wall usually indicates strengthening of the intensity of the winds at the hurricane center. It is just a developmental stage of a hurricane.This can happen easily right before a cane makes landfall and can cause all kinds of unexpected damage to surrounding areas., Hopefully this won't happen in this case.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:18 AM |
Re: CNN Turn
|
yeah, I saw that jacki girl say that too. Not likely. Look at the radar. There is a slight w-nw motion but no dramatic 90 deg turn to the north..they are basing there "turn" on a computer model. Right Now, go with NHC track - if anything, the NHC track may have to be shifted slightly south.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:20 AM |
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
Was looking at the Melbourne radar as well - looks like that was just a wobble to the NNW, however it has returned to almost a due W motion in the last few frames...I think
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM |
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
HEY, From Manatee County and not liking all this talk, all of a sudden about the storm coming to my area. Are people beginning to think it is going to go further south than has been predicted?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:21 AM |
|
Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Mike C...yeah I think we are losing some of the folks in here from those areas now....WXMAN is in boynton too....winds are picking up more down here too...our power is flickering
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
Quote:
Was looking at the Melbourne radar as well - looks like that was just a wobble to the NNW, however it has returned to almost a due W motion in the last few frames...I think
agreed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:22 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
The current track is only about 10 miles south of the track projected at 5:00 pm... and with this slight turn WNW it is paralleling the projected course pretty well. Nothing unexpected really...
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:23 AM |
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
According to MLB radar, it appears Jeanne is making a slight jog to the right as it interacts with land. Jupiter being hit hard now and Ft. Pierce about to get slammed in the next hour.
Eye should make a slight right turn at landfall and remain pretty close to NHC track. Latest surface pressure falls seem to favor the track across to the west coast, and water vapor doesn't indicate anything to stop Jeanne short of briefly entering GOM near Weeki Wachee.
Last GFDL output brings it closest to Tampa, but looks like a CAT 1, after quickly weakening inland. Obviously everyone is concerned about Lakeland and Polk Co. areas dealing with their third direct hit. God bless you all.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Sorry Lou
|
maybe when the eye comes ashore we will see that north turn. Hey Im concerned here! Im in your boat!
| CatInOrlando |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:24 AM |
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
So far so good here in Orlando. We have everyone tucked in here at the house (friends from eastlying mobile homes, and dorm rooms), last ones in arrived about 8:30. Power still good, cable still good. Keeping an eye on everything though. Thanks for all the posted links and stuff all day...it has been a great help in keeping everying updated here.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
I'm still here even with 70 plus mph winds. Do I have a generator I don't know about?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:25 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Godspeed to all of you in the path of this storm. Just went through Ivan and we were far east and for us it was a long night. The tornados were horrible then, I hope none of you have to deal with that. Good luck all...thoughts and prayers are with all.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:26 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
LOL good to see you here....we are flickering down here...winds are up higher now too 30-40...gusting to 60-70 just a guess
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:27 AM |
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
Quote:
What about the gulfstream, or has it already hit it?
I can't remember exactly, but I think she's in it now.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:28 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Saw JB on Fox just a bit ago (he's on every half hour or so for those that want to see him). He too is harping on the idea of land interaction causing the storm to kick NNW. He thinks landfall may be around or north of Vero when all is said and done and then resuming the expected course. He was in the middle of an explanation why he thought this would occur when they lost transmission (fox w/ JB that is). I think he is looking at it like what we saw with Charley, where the land friction causes the storm to spin to the right, although the thinking would be in reverse in this case than with Charley.
I'm gonna go see what's up outside...
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Here is some info from FPL on power restoration:
Florida Power and Light Co. said 12,000 of its customers were without electricity. The utility appealed nationwide for more linemen and tree-cutters to supplement the crews still repairing damage from the last hurricanes.
"Our resources are clearly stretched," FPL President Armando Olivera said. "In all candor we must tell our customers that they must be prepared for extended outages, perhaps three weeks or more."
Looks like even the aftermath will be hard to deal with, i.e. no working gas stations, ice, and food!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
hey, I agree...I think Port St Lucie at 11 PM. Pretty close to NHC. Maybe a tad south. My point was its not gonna veer sharply to the north and skip along the coast like CNN stated
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:29 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
Surprisingly little rain so far on the north side... while south FL is getting drowned. Daytona needs no more (31 inches in the last 2 months) so that is a blessing for them. It appears to be the result of the dry air surrounding Jeanne to the north and east. Have no idea how long that luck will hold though...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:32 AM |
|
|
|
Re: North Central Florida
|
I do not recall exactly what Frances did in Spring Hill. The bigger danger, in that area, is the flooding moreso then the wind. Rain could be very heavy. It is also possible that if it passes east of Spring Hill, there could be a lot of water blown on shore from the Gulf. That is a major issue in that area.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
858 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MARTIN COUNTY, ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
* UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
* AT 855 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES MAINLY FOR THE ONSET OF EXTREME HURRICANE WINDS AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. WINDS TO 100 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH TORNADOES.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE INDIAN RIVER ESTATES...SAINT LUCIE VILLAGE...JUPITER ISLAND...LAKEWOOD PARK...NORTH RIVER SHORES...QUEENS COVE...PORT SALERNO...PORT SAINT LUCIE RIVER PARK...SAINT LUCIE AIRPORT...SAINT LUCIE WEST...NETTLES ISLAND AND ROCKY POINT
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A LANDFALLING MAJOR HURRICANE WITH EMBEDDED TORNADOES IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:34 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
If CNN said Jeanne is going to skip up the coast, perhaps they meant the west coast... because if they meant the east coast, somebody needs to send them the link for the NHC....
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:36 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Quote:
Here is some info from FPL on power restoration:
Florida Power and Light Co. said 12,000 of its customers were without electricity. The utility appealed nationwide for more linemen and tree-cutters to supplement the crews still repairing damage from the last hurricanes.
"Our resources are clearly stretched," FPL President Armando Olivera said. "In all candor we must tell our customers that they must be prepared for extended outages, perhaps three weeks or more."
Looks like even the aftermath will be hard to deal with, i.e. no working gas stations, ice, and food!!
Was talking with someone today traveling home to Jax from Georgia. Said he saw a whole caravan of utility trucks heading north into Georgia. Wait, you're going the wrong way!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:37 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
Admittedhacker,
yeah, they said skip up the east coast! I guess they don't believe NHC or their own eyes!
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:39 AM |
|
Re: CNN Turn
|
I am over here in DeLand and the last thing we need is more rain. We have had 36 inches in the last 10 weeks and everything is flooding.I lost three trees in Charlie (one landed on the backisde of my house) and two trees during Frances (both on my garage) I hope the dry air holds and the western path continues. I am tired of paying these outrageous deductibles!! At least my family was safe. Of course I dont wish the path on anyone! But we have had enough.............
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:40 AM |
|
Joe Bastardi
|
What time do we expect the next JB sighting?
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:40 AM |
|
Watches/Warnings for North Central and North Florida and Georgia
|
Watches/warnings. A hurricane warning is in effect from st Augustine southward. A tropical storm warning is in effect from north of st. Augustine to altamaha sound georgia, a tornado watch is in effect until midnight edt for st. Johns, flagler, putnam and marion counties in northeast Florida, a flood watch is in effect for southeast georgia and northeast florida, an inland hurricane wind warning is in effect for putnam and marion counties in northeast Florida, an inland tropical storm wind warning is in effect for alachua, baker, bradford, clay, columbia, gilchrist, suwannee, hamilton and union counties in northeast Florida, An inland tropical storm wind watch in now in effect for wayne. Brantley, charlton, appling, pierce, ware, jeff davis, bacon, coffee, atkinson, clinch and echols counties in southeast georgia, a hurricane watch remains in effect from north of st. Augustine florida to the altamaha sound in georgia,
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Double Eyewall?
|
Quote:Quote:
What about the gulfstream, or has it already hit it?
I can't remember exactly, but I think she's in it now.
the gulf stream is fairly close to the coast from Jupiter south, so it's in the middle of it until 10 to 15 miles offshore. Its further away from the coast the more north you get.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
853 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
INDIAN RIVER COUNTY
MARTIN COUNTY
ST. LUCIE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
* UNTIL 100 AM EDT
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:41 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Here in Tampa, north wind at 11 G 31 mph. 29.71 and falling.
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:42 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Ocala,
Hopefully they were just heading out of the storms path and plan to return Monday. Otherwise this is going to be a long long storm, no matter how fast it is moving!!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:44 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Here in Lakeland we just had a wind gust that appeared to be about 30 mph. Wind is pretty steady at 23 mph for the most part.
Just enough so far to knock down loose debris from any trees that were not pruned by the last storm.
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Can we do a roll call? Who is still here that's located within 100 mi of projected landfall?
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:46 AM |
Re: CNN Turn
|
Quote:Consider the source -- in a broad, general sense, Jeanne will be moving up the east coast (of the U.S.).
yeah, they said skip up the east coast! I guess they don't believe NHC or their own eyes!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:46 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Joe Scarbourgh just clocked a 120 mph gust in West PB on his anometer and reported live on MSNBC... he was getting one hell of a blow and was doing every thing he could just to stand up.... all it would take is a small piece of debris to nail his butt and it might send him into early retirement... amazing gusts just pummeling this dude....
| PalmCoaster |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
representing Palm Coast in Flagler County. breezy, rainy conditions right now
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
osceola county here
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:48 AM |
|
Re: Joe Bastardi
|
Hey StormHound,
He was on Heartland?? on Fox News twice tonight. It was the usual fare..him trying to give an in-depth explanation for his forecast and the talking head chopping it all to hell and cutting him off. I think he was trying to explain that the north and eastern portion of the storm would draw energy from the gulf stream while the southern and western weakened from frictional effects over land, causing it to pull north along the coast. He also believed this could cause the eye to "wrap up" causing some additional increase in intensity as it came ashore.
Not sure I'm buying it as she looks to me to still be going almost due west, but I get the theory.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Stephanie-TWC, just reported the roof peeling of her motel location. I believe she's in West Palm Beach.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Still here in Southern Brevard. Palm Bay
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:49 AM |
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Ft. Lauderdale here still with power
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:50 AM |
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Quote:
"Our resources are clearly stretched," FPL President Armando Olivera said. "In all candor we must tell our customers that they must be prepared for extended outages, perhaps three weeks or more."
One of the dots on the NHC track is right on top of our house, so I guess it's just a matter of time. My guess is they will cut the power before it gets bad, anyway. I don't think it will take three weeks to get the power back on here, though, because the Cracker Barrel where all the linemen eat is about 100 yards from my house (I-4 and US27)
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
I still dont have cable due to Ivan so I cant watch any coverage on tv. Can you guys please keep me updated with whats going on down there. All I have is this site and a radar lol Thanks
| viking |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:50 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
NE Miami-Dade.
Not much to report from here.
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Not in the 100 Mile projection but still online in western volusia county (Power and Cable here still holding up well but not expected to last much longer).
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Looks like Fort Pierce area is now getting nuked. I bet those that stayed are having second thoughts...
Land fall for eye pretty soon.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:52 AM |
|
|
Re: Update
|
First of all, CNN should stick to politics, not the weather. They've been saying "up the coast" for 4 days. They are clueless.
I have been watching the local mets here and I think they have a better idea...as a matter of fact, 3 mets in the last 15 minutes have been talking about having to shift the track a little further south, and JC just confirmed that with his report in which he stated that for every little W/NW jog it takes, it takes 4 more to the west, so I have to agree with the westward track.
Right now the latest winds in Lakeland - Lakeland Highlands to be exact -- are now to the NNW at 24 gusting to 32mph.
I can absolutely not even imagine what sustained winds of 50 mph will be like in a few hours, nevermind 90 with gusts over 100.
It also looks like Jeanne is getting her act together again. The eyewall appears to be closed again and the convection is firing back up. Is she now in the Gulfstream? or is that yet to come?
I do believe that they have issued Hurricane Watches/Tropical Storm Warnngs along the West Coast of Florida, because the track and the large area of the hurricane winds and tropical storm force winds.
The local EOC's (including Polk County) are practically BEGGING people in mobile homes to LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. They even went as far as to have a News Channel 8 reporter in Polk County go on live tv telling people this is no game, it's not Frances and to PLEASE GO TO EITHER A SHELTER OR FAMILY. Hillsborough County is offering to take in POLK county residents!
Steve Jerve from News Channel 8 is now interviewing Max Mayfield at 9:27pm: addressing the inland counties: expect very high winds; the west coast of Florida could experience a HIGHER storm surge than the EAST coast as it moves across the state because the waters are more shallow . Max Mayfield just stated that at 11pm the track may be shifted a little bit to the west. A "little bit to the west" is very disconcerting...as we saw with Ivan...a little jog to the right or left makes a huge difference right now, because that will affect the inland counties as far as where a lot of the damage will be. But with the wide area of hurricane force, then TS force winds I'm not sure that anyone in the inland path of this storm is going to be less affected than anyone else.
The lights are flickering here right now a little bit, I don't think we will be as lucky in not losing our power this time around.
Okay, that's my local update from Lakeland Highlands. We are also looking at 10" of rain or maybe more! Polk County is really in a bad spot for storms that go across the peninsula; we get socked from the east then socked from the west.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:52 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Bartow here - frequent wind gusts.
Husband ,a firefighter, was called in at 7pm to stand by through the storm.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Here IN Melbourne - Lake Washington area
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Oh, weather in east Orlando is still dry and breezy.
And I just found out my next door neighbor doesn't like me
We had a 30ft tall queen palm land on our house in Charley (lost a second one completely to Charley). We pulled it back upright and braced it nine ways to Sunday, and it came through like a champ. So the neighbor was outside on his cell phone when I went out to check the weather and umm, well he's none too happy about my palm tree--he's sure its going to hit his house this time. Apparently he thought we should have uprooted it when it leaned over he first time.. Oh well. We'll se how that turns out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:53 AM |
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Christmas, FL still here gusts to 35mph+
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:57 AM |
|
|
|
79 MPH
|
A gust to 79 mph and pressure 29.02" and I still have power.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 01:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update
|
I wonder how reliable the navy is on their predicted path? My friend just got off the phone with her brother and they have it exiting over Tampa.
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:01 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
I think they are referring to the NOGAPS model, looks like that model is still kinda reliable given Jeanne's refusal to turn north.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:01 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I am on the station officer's computer now. I am installing WeatherBug so I can keep you updated. Here's what I'm showing right now at 9:56 pm:
Data as of: 9:54 PM 9/25/2004
Current Conditions
Temperature: 78.7°F Pressure: 29.57"
Average Wind: 11mph
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 71°F
So Far Today
High: 84°F Rain: 0.04" Rain Rate: 0.00"/h
Low: 71 °F Gusts: 37mph ENE
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:01 AM |
|
Re: Update
|
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
Here's the navy site.
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Quote:
I still dont have cable due to Ivan so I cant watch any coverage on tv. Can you guys please keep me updated with whats going on down there. All I have is this site and a radar lol Thanks
Watching CBS 4 live feed out of Miami..pretty good coverage
www.cbs4.com
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:03 AM |
| Attachment |
|
overwash pic
|
a pic attache dof some overwsh in Cape Canaveral
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:04 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Here are the latest weather conditions in Volusia County:
Temperature: 81.0°F Pressure: 29.69"
Average Wind: 26mph NE Gusts: 36mph NE
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Cape Coral here...
I've got Weatherbug going here, it says wind NNW 6 MPH, gusts to 22... my barometer here is reading 29.53 and still falling
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Correction. Stephanie Abrams is in Port St Lucie,FL.
The roof was being torn off the motel that she was in.
She just said that Jeanne is stronger than Frances, from her point of view. In the eye!
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:08 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
in Tampa now, Wind: N @ 15 G 33 mph; 29.69 falling
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Losing Folks Online In those Areas
|
Northwest Orange County
Light drizzle.
I would estimate 20-25 mph gusts. maybe 10-15 sustained.
There are periods of dead calm.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:09 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Danielw, is she still doing live reports? Sorry, my cable is out from Ivan. Whats it look like down there?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Stephanie is doing Live phone reports from Port St Lucie.
Once the winds get above 35mph or so they have to take the satellite dish down. It'll flip the truck over, not to mention break off!
Sorry, No pics from Steph, in Port St Lucie.
Jim Cantore, getting windblown at about 35-40mph I'd guess. He's in Daytona Beach Shores.
| peggyone |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:15 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Pass-A-Grill Beach Pinellas County think they have done our mobile home e-vacs a great dis-service this time. Only voluntary e-vac. Beach here is crowded with e-vacs from east coast.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
My weatherbug here in Palm Bay is showing 44mph with gusts to 57.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Flipping between the live coverages on the cable news nets...just saw Geraldo live in NYC I believe and standing in front of a chroma key wall, Joe Scarborough in Fla and Keith Olberman in NYC and the CNN crew. It seems that Anderson Cooper must have drawn the short straw again as he keeps getting sent out to the storms.
We here in Georgia (Atlanta) send our thoughts and prayers to everyone in Jeanne's path.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:26 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Lost electricity for 8 days, 2 cats, and a few shingles in Charley, Lost trees in Frances. Lost sleep in Ivan.
Have a 5% deductible. . . Waiting for Jeanne!!
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Correction on my last post.. (wrong WB station selected)
Winds NNW 16, gusts to 37
Baro at 29.52
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:26 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
im in winter springs witch is right neer oviedo and sanford not much here some wind
btw first post been watching this fourm for a long long time jsut never posted
| SOUTHFLAHAPPYGAL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Daniel...
I am here....and OK so far
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...WIND IMPACTS...
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...AND THEN SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THESE AREAS SHOULD BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE.
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH OR MORE WITH HIGHER GUSTS SHOULD THEN PERSIST FOR THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INLAND COUNTIES OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA BIG BEND MAY ALSO SEE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND FLORIDA BIG BEND ZONES. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO AFFECT COUNTIES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:34 AM |
|
From Melbourne NWS
|
Any idea what Doppler radar velocities translate to at the surface?
SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED THAT JEANNE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS
ABOUT 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH. THE EYE REMAINED VERY LARGE AND
DOPPLER RADAR IS NOW STARTING TO INDICATE VELOCITIES OVER 120 KNOTS
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MAJOR
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SWEEP ONSHORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...STARTING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND EVENTUALLY REACHING UP
TO SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY. THIS MEANS THAT FURTHER HISTORY WILL BE
MADE IN THIS ALREADY HISTORICAL YEAR FOR FLORIDA...AS INDIAN RIVER
AND PART OF BREVARD COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE MAJOR HURRICANE
CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 100 YEARS.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:36 AM |
|
|
LI Phil
|
Listen up...for those of you who have just registered and are aggravated with Phil for posting about football, I want to tell you something.
LI Phil has worked his butt off keeping people updated with maps, links, personal thoughts, etc. He did it with Charley, Frances, Ivan, and now Jeanne. He's stayed up countless nights to keep those who are here a majority of the time updated with the latest information he can get.
I live in Central Florida. I am now going through 3 major hurricanes in less than 2 months. I am stressed out, too. But to jump all over Phil because he posted a few things about football is not fair to him. He's more dedicated to this site than anyone I know. For those of us who ARE in the the heart of this storm, a now and then OT post is a welcome diversion.
I would ask any of you that have just begun posting if you would be able to fill Phil's shoes. I think the answer would be NO. He (and others) have taken time to answer your questions, your concerns and have done it with much willingness to help you and others to stay safe. So WHAT if he mentions football? Life DOES go on, people. We all know what we're in store for, we've been talking about it for 4-5 days now, the time is here, what else is there to say? I, for one, am glad to take a break from what will be a hellish night, to post a couple of off-topic posts. We can only say the same thing so many times. You will know shortly what you will get, believe me.
So let's all take a deep breath and slow down. Phil does a fantastic job, and I don't want to lose him because some people don't want to hear about football. Lay off of him, he nailed this storm 3 days ago when people thought that the NHC track was the only one to go by. I think he's done a damn good job for the newbies and maybe you should appreciate what you have in a guy like Phil than complain about him.
And ya know what? If you don't like the off-topic posts..which do not happen frequently when we're going through something like this, you can change the channel and find another place that suits you better.
You might not like this post, but at this point, I don't like the pettiness. You are complaining about him talking about football and then post more posts about him posting about football.
Mike, John, Ed, Storm Coop or anyone else with the power to do so can delete this as an off-topic post, and that's fine. I'm just telling you what I know as a longtime member of this forum that Phil does not deserve to be beat up for a couple of posts about football.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:38 AM |
|
Frances Comparison
|
This is probably going to shoot the table layout, but its' interesting enough
Here's a side by side comparison of Frances vs Jeanne...
Jeanne is stronger for sure, but Frances was a larger storm.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
OUCH Colleen.. Guess you are catching up on your posts.. I evacuated from my house on Lake Toho to a hotel on IDRIVE in Orlando. Since I have substantial damage to my house thanks to Charley and Frances, thought it was prudent. Good luck to you tonight in case you lose electric.
| Leigh |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:40 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
First Post for a long time lurker:
I LOVE Phil!
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Phil, Colleen, and Frances Comparison
|
Whoohoo Colleen, you go girl!!
They give you or Phil any problems, send 'em to me. We"ll negotiate.
Hey Mike, I just love the widescreen, and the map comparison too.
You guys rock
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:44 AM |
|
Re: Phil, Colleen, and Frances Comparison
|
I just noticed an exteremly strong cell move through ft pierce and sw into the I95 area west of jupiter. Whoever was in that path probably got nailed horribly.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:44 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Lay off my bud Phil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Period!!!!!!!!!!!!! With that out of the way, looks like land fall is immenient and well south of NHC track. Doesn't bode well for us in the Big Bend. She is gonna get in the GOM as she makes the turn. Good luck all.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:45 AM |
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
Well, you're right -- blew the table layout, but well worth it. Great comparison images! Thanks Mike.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:45 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I am right around the corner in Oviedo. The winds have certainly started picking up some here; although, we do have moments of stillness still.
Good luck to everyone tonight & tomorrow!
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:46 AM |
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Couple of things here...
First things first, LI Phil works his arse off to help keep this board up as well as everyone else on here with information and reassuring words to everyone in the path of a hurricane. So "Lighten Up, Frances" and give everyone a bit of slack during this emergency time.
Second, am I the only one on here that's thinking this or does Geraldo look absolutely stupid in front of that chroma key wall?
And according to MSNBC the mayor of Vero Beach is saying that they could expect winds of 150mph later on tonight and in Sebastian, Fl it's about 80mph sustained and 100mph gusts....
Folks, it's here.....
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:47 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quote:Your observations correlate well with radar. Outer band moving through now. My wife's parents are there at Lutheran Haven - we were there for Charley. What a mess!
I am right around the corner in Oviedo. The winds have certainly started picking up some here; although, we do have moments of stillness still.
Good luck to everyone tonight & tomorrow!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:47 AM |
|
GOM?
|
Stupid Newbie question--
What is GOM?
Great help you've all been (esp. Phil)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:48 AM |
|
Re: Is NOGAPS the king?
|
I dunno about the rest of you..but Jeanne sures looks to be following the more southern, west tracking path.. aka NOGAPS solution...if this storm doesn't veer to the northwest soon, its on a direct path for cigar city.
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:48 AM |
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
I could not have said that better myself. Phil has done and is doing one heck of a job. The only thing I can add is to just say Thanks to Phil, Mike, you and all of the regulars....Keep up the good work and the OT's are a nice break during the stress of these storms.
Thanks All,
Milton
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:49 AM |
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
Here's what I was talking about.
I circled the extreme cells with purple.
PS PLEASE STAY ON TOPIC FOLKS.
| CentralFlorida |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:49 AM |
|
Re: GOM?
|
GOM = Gulf Of Mexico
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:49 AM |
|
tensions
|
First, I wish all of those in line of this storm the best, and I pray for everyone's safety. I have an uncle in Hallandale, and I wish I had called him today. I need to find skeeto's map to see how close he really is.
Second, I want to thank Phil for the fine job he has done moderating these boards. I was very upset to get a PM from him tonight expressing his frustrations with respect to some comments directed at him. They are undeserved. If you think it's hard reading all the posts, think of how hard it is to MODERATE them. The football comment was made by us because we felt the NFL was being shallow-minded with respect to the most important issues down there, like everyone's lives and property. That was an issue, and even though it wasn't about the storm per se, it was an issue nonetheless.
I know this is off-topic, and feel free to remove this, but I don't want to lose Phil, and we are close. No one person is as important as the situation at hand, but this is a person that really cares about all of you down there-like his extended family.
I am not going to say I understand what everyone is going through, because I don't. I have never been through that. I do imagine tempers can be short-(displaced anger?)
While I'm off-topic, I may as well go all the way. I am tired of watching everyone with a microphone and a camera stand in the middle of a violent hurricane. Some may think "if they can survive it, so can I", and that is dangerous. Sadly, nothing will change as long as nothing bad happens, but no one actually breaks new scientific ground out there-and to me it is irresponsible.
I don't want to leave out the other mods, but Phil does a lot of heavy lifting around here. THANK YOU ALL FOR ALL YOU DO.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Geraldo looks stupid no matter where he's standing, ROFLMBO.......
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM?
|
Shorthand for Gulf of Mexico
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:50 AM |
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
Mike,
Wow, look at the comma that Jeanne is producing! indicative of powerful storms.
Anyone want to make a guess as to projected paths? My gut is still telling me WWNW (i.e. Tampa) Those steering currents in the GOM are really messed up. I talked about it a little this morning and nobody would acknowledge or agree with me. I am no Forecaster but "What you see is what you get"! and I am sorry to say, Hang On my fellow Floridians! We have done this three times in the past six weeks, and if you turn the volume up on your battery powered radio, the strange noises coming from your house are not as bad!
| rule |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:50 AM |
|
Re: GOM?
|
Gulf of Mexico
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM?
|
There are NO stupid questions here. Only unanswered ones
GOM-Gulf of Mexico
Anyone else have a question. Post them and one or more of us will answer your questions.
Predictions don't count as questions!
| Ocala |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:51 AM |
|
Re: GOM?
|
Gulf of Mexico, Right? I'm a newbeeie too. Figured that one out after a while.
Skeetobites graphics and the links on this site are what kept me coming back. Starting reading the posts after a while, registered, and got hooked. I'm addicted. Thanks to everyone for their hard work! This is a great site. I voted for it too.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
11 PM is out
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
Wouldn't a comma shape on radar be indicative of mesocyclonic(tornadic) storms?
Urgh, can't type worth a dang.....
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:52 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
NBC-2 and ABC-7 from Fort Myers are doing another joint broadcast as they did for Charley. They just issued a caution that Jeanne will be coming across Lake Okeechobee as she continues on her westerly track (actually, they said she is moving a hair to the south as well). I am in North Central Collier County, so this is not the best move for us. I don't think I'll get much sleep tonight.
Thanks to everyone for their terrific posts. I've learned tons. Be safe!
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:53 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Quote:Well, if the mayor said it,
First things first, LI Phil works his arse off ...
And according to MSNBC the mayor of Vero Beach is saying that they could expect winds of 150mph later on tonight and in Sebastian, Fl it's about 80mph sustained and 100mph gusts....
like I said earlier, consider the source. And I don't know where the stuff on Phil came from, but (like I said earlier, consider the source) ...
We love ya Phil!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:53 AM |
|
Re: GOM?
|
Gulf of Mexico. Welcome Newbie, ask any questions you like.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:55 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
We are only a couple of miles from Lutheran Haven, and yes...it was a mess after Charley. Thank goodness, we faired much better during Frances. This one? Not too sure yet. Looking better for us with each new track, but not wanting to let my guard down yet.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:56 AM |
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
I haven't seen the sat pics or radar, but if he is seeing it on the sat pic, it is called a convective tail. Jeanne pummelled (sp?) Puerto Rico with a convective tail, as that is where they got most of their rains.
Comma signatures on pre-Doppler radars were the only signs that a storm might have rotation, and the notice might be 5 minutes if that. They can have that appearance, although the best way to find one on radar is to look at the radial velocities within the storm.
Good night all, and please be safe.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:57 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Jeanne is already north of Lake Okechobee... Not sure what they are seeing ? Its definitely not what the latest NHC track is saying..
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:58 AM |
|
|
|
MELBOURNE
|
According to TWC Melbourne experiencing 60+ winds any other info out there?
| DeLandT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 02:59 AM |
|
Re: Frances Comparison
|
Jeff,
(In my opinion and maybe only my opinion) unfortunately yes, it seems that the storms with a tail (Comma) seem to produce more tornadic activity and also have more severe NE eyewalls. I am basing this on Satellite imagery of storms in the past 20 years in the Atlantic and Pacific regions.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:00 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
My comment about football had nothing to do with Phil.
But it is disgusting to me that it is more important to people whether a football game is going to be played or not when over 2000 people were killed by Jeanne already, and it will likely kill more.
How can anyone even think about something as petty as a football game when millions of lives are are stake?
Bill
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:00 AM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM?
|
If Jeanne is supposedly heading anything but West. Then why is the grid line constantly visible in the lower part of the eye. I'm refering to the Weather Channel graphics.
Dr Steve just said "It hasn't made the turn yet". Hold your comments LIPhil.
BTW- NHC storm movement directions ARE averaged over a period of time and not necessarily the direction of movement from one Advisory to the next.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:00 AM |
|
|
|
forecast points for 11pm
|
0300Z current: 27.2N 80.0W 100Kt winds
1200Z 29.2N 82.9W 65Kt
0000Z 33.0N 83.5W 40Kt
they're still sticking with tne NW turn
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:00 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
You Go Girl!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
Quick thx to my hommies out there...
Yeah, I pulled some strings, but they wouldn't have given me the time of day if it did not mean something.
WEATHER>>>JEANNE most important now
I'll hang around a minimum of an hour, unless you'd prefer I didn't..I got your storm surge maps, your up to date radars and your WV loops at the ready...
Just give me the word...I want to help.
I was tempted to go further (as in responding) but that's not what's important right now...your safety is...
Fire away and I will do what I can
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
10:58ish here still windy, but still have power. i wonder if we will be spared hurricane winds? i pray and hope.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
enough is enough
please stay on topic
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:02 AM |
|
Re: forecast points for 11pm
|
Quote:follow the trends of the storm
0300Z current: 27.2N 80.0W 100Kt winds
1200Z 29.2N 82.9W 65Kt
0000Z 33.0N 83.5W 40Kt
they're still sticking with tne NW turn
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:02 AM |
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
I'm sitting here in Indialantic finally going thru this thing and I don't have time to go in depth so I'll just say that if I did have the time I would have basically written exactly what Colleen just did. I stand behind you Phil!
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
please keep up the good work here i love coming here and reading the updates.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:04 AM |
|
|
|
Re: UPDATE
|
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...EYE WALL NOW IMPACTING EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...WIND IMPACTS...
AT 10 PM...WIND REPORTS ACROSS PALM BEACH INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...PARTICULARLY AT WEST PALM BEACH. HAM RADIO OPERATOR REPORTS FROM THE JUPITER AREA INDICATED ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 100 MPH CLOSER TO THE EYE WALL. ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY...WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY INDICATED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...40 TO 45 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 TO 60 MPH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF BROWARD COUNTY...WINDS REPORTS INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY WERE MAINLY 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. AT 10 MPH...FOWEY ROCKS...JUST SOUTH OF KEY BISCAYNE...WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 TO 60 MPH.
*IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION...WINDS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65 TO 70 MPH. WINDS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA GUSTING CLOSE TO 35 MPH.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: GOM?
|
It really seems that the NHC and Accu-weather are sticking to the bitter end with the northeast turn once it gets inland. But with the speed of Jeanne, wouldn't that make it harder to make that northerly turn and track it further into the GOM? The way this storm has been acting in the last 12 hours I have a gut feeling that Jeanne may become Ivanesque and track into the GOM and then head into Alabama and track near Atlanta...
No meterological basis for that statement, but just observations and feelings.
Also, Georgia gubbanah Sonny Purdue has just issued a state of emergency for the entire state...I wonder if he knows something that the NHC may not know?
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:06 AM |
|
|
|
Re: tensions
|
First off... though I've just started posting pretty heavily tonight, I HAVE been lurking here off and on since 2003. That being said, I have nothing but RESPECT for Phil, as he understands what we in the line of fire are going through (both physically AND emotionally), and I ejnoy a chance to jump "off topic" to let off some steam. Kudos to him, Mike, Ed, HF, et al... and the rest of the regulars here. Tropical weather has been a hobby for me since I moved heer to Florida in 1973 as a wee lad of 9, and have learned more in the last 10 months here than in the previous years combined.. Once things clear up here, the FIRST thing I'm doing is chipping in to the new server fund.
rant off.... now i'm going to get my generator ready (just in case!)
Bob
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:07 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Give us all you got Phil!! This is the NHC track versus where she is going. She is south of the forecast. That is why I am afraid this is a GOM and double landfall storm. Click on the forecast points.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:08 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Hope she holds off do I can get in 18 tomorrow morning.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:09 AM |
|
Re: LI Phil
|
I want to echo Colleen's comments on Phil... this guy has busted his ass to help the entire CFHC family.... I'm not even really sure what transpired tonight should have elevated to the level its at, but I know this... NO ONE has put in more quality time and effort in trying to moderate this board under what has to be considered as extraordinary events that has affected so many of us over the past several weeks... you asked for something from Phil and it you get it... he is a tremendous assest to this web site... the site is at unparalled popularity and membership... and Phil's recent contributions over the past several months are directly related to that success... one of the best decisions Mike and Ed made was appointing Phil as a moderator... it was a stroke of genius .... and I really don't want him to leave our site when it really is starting to pay big dividends to the CFHC members, and others who use this site as a source of tropical information...
anyone want to delete my post fine.... as least I've said my piece...
Frank P
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:09 AM |
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
LakeToho... I don't see Jeanne north of the lake yet. The south edge of Jeanne's eyewall is right on the Martin County/Palm Beach County line... which is just about the centerline of the lake, is it not?
I still see primarily westerly movement. Waiting for that turn...
AdmittedHacker
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:09 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
New thread posted......
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Forecast points. Somebody forgot to tell Jeanne she was supposed to turn.
LIPhil-WE are ready when your are. You got any of them Mike Size Maps??
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: LI Phil
|
Quote:
I'm sitting here in Indialantic finally going thru this thing and I don't have time to go in depth so I'll just say that if I did have the time I would have basically written exactly what Colleen just did. I stand behind you Phil!
Tell us what it's like there!
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:15 AM |
|
Re: GOM?
|
Quote:If I'm not mistaken, latest NHC track does take Jeanne across Florida, very briefly into the Gulf near Cedar Key, with a turn to the north, then NE thru GA. Quick weakening after moving inland also! It can't weaken fast enough!
It seems that the NHC is sticking to the bitter end with the northeast turn once it gets inland. But with the speed of Jeanne, wouldn't that make it harder to make that northerly turn and track it further into the GOM? The way this storm has been acting in the last 12 hours I have a gut feeling that Jeanne may become Ivanesque and track into the GOM and then head into Alabama and track near Atlanta...
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Jeanne Still Heading West
|
I am looking at both Radar and Satellite, and seems north of Lake Okechobee to me... Doesnt look like Palm Beach and Martin County, looks like Martin and the county above it (sorry not sure if its St Lucie)
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:32 AM |
|
|
|
My Last Comment Regarding The "Football Comment"
|
I will make one final statement regarding my earlier post about the football thread.
I never intended or meant any insult toward Phil (or anyone else for that matter) when I commented about the football posts. I greatly value this forum and the members that frequent here. I take a lot of what Phil and the others say and use the information in my daily life to plan for these unprecedented events that we have dealt with here in Florida. I was simply referring to repeated posts that were quotes upon quotes upon quotes of silly repetition regarding NFL teams.
I remember when one of this season's earlier storms (Charley or Frances??) was about to make landfall, all the moderators, even Mike C, were clamping down drastically on ANY off-topic post. They were very harsh and even resorted to locking out non-registered users to keep everyone controlled and on-topic. I just don't understand the difference tonight. I am now finding myself on the defensive for my comment which was apparently perceived as an attack on Phil. If that is how my comment was viewed, then I am truly sorry. While I have never met Phil in person, his great sense of humor and genuine concern for others comes through vividly in his posts. I would certainly never do or say anything to harm him.
Let's just forget I made the comment and get back to our discussions on Jeanne and her impact on Florida.
Hopefully there are no hard feelings by all....
--Lou
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 26 2004 03:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: My Last Comment Regarding The "Football Comment"
|
NEW THREAD STARTED . Please post there " Jeanne makes landfall..."