MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 06:44 PM |
Tropical Storm Katrina Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South
|
8:30AM
From a special tropical Update, TD#12 is now Tropical Storm Katrina. The 11AM update will reflect this.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
6:45AM
TD#12 has remained a depression overnight, although there are some signs of strengthening in the eastern quadrant of the storm. Thankfully chances remain highest for it to get no stronger than a Tropical Storm as it approaches Florida. However, there ermains the possibility for slight strenthening and hurricane watches may go up this afternoon for parts as well. Because of uncertainties in the track and intensity of the system, folks along the east coast of Florida will want to watch for any changes in the forecast during the next day or so.
This is due to the dry air near it, and a few other upper level conditions that would slow down strengthening. However, we'll still want to watch it because of the uncertainty with intensity forecasting and the fact the negative conditions will lessen as time goes on. In fact, it's starting to look better organized right now.
The forecast track hasn't changed at all, but there is still a lot of error in that, especially if TD#12 sllows down more. The potential for it to stall over the area exists as well. Some models, like the nogaps, trend it westward, others keep it slower, basically drifting through the bahamas and eventualy onshore, moving at a snails pace.
Areas in the cone will want to keep an eye on it as well. It's important to note there is no real reason to doubt the current NHC track, it is the most likely scenario.
11:00PM
Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Keys northward to Vero Beach.
See Clark Evans' Blog Entry below & Ed Dunham's post in the Storm Forum for much more detailed discussion.
5:00PM
The forecast track, while highly uncertain, is not as uncertain as the intensity track. Thus the mention of a possibility for hurricane watches tonight by the Hurricane Center. In the discussion, the forecast intensity was mentioned as being under the SHIPS model. Going with SHIPS would bring a minimal hurricane into South Florida.
However, how strong TD#12 eventually gets is based upon how soon the center of the storm gets well defined and begins to wrap around. If it happens in less than 24 hours, the likelyhood of hurricane strength is much higher. The conditions around it and the water temps support strengthening, even rapid strengthening, assuming TD#12 can organize fast enough. Many of the factors to keep it down, include a upper level low near it and a bit of dry air. However, I think it's fair to expect a strong Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane approaching. But the error in that could be very large.
Folks will want to keep watching this system closely. I expect it to become Katrina later tonight. I'd lean toward Tropical storm watches issued tonight for South Florida over Hurricane watches, at this time. Persistance overnight and seeing how the storm behaves over the next 24 hours is key.
The future track seems fairly solid, but the potential error is large. There is potential for TD#12 to slow up or turn more northward as well. The more likely right now is for it to head through South Florida near Palm Beach or Broward, and move westward out through Lee County.
4:30PM
Watches warnings up for Bahamas, and Tropical Storm or possibly Hurricane Watches may go up for South Florida later tonight .
Original Update
Tropical Depression #12 has formed in the Bahamas, more to come soon.
South Florida will want to watch this one, and the rest of Florida will need to keep an eye on it. Most likely it will be a rain event for the region, but this is uncertain, the atmosphere has potential for strengthening.
More around 5PM.
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Katrina
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Bahamas Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:34 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
I agree with what Scott said on the previous thread. Yes, NHC is NHC.. I just don't see that as being the main engine that drives this thing. Wondering if they were able to go into the center sitting on the Cuban Coast to compare the readings or if there were flight restriction problems. Like to see data and discussion on why they went with the higher center.
And, really don't see that they can go with TD 12 as this is definitely TD10 and the assorted cloudiness. Back in the days of Bob Sheets they always would keep the same name ..not make two storms from one system.
Confused, amused and waiting for discussion. But, I agree with Scott.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:36 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
Windfied profiles mainly, the wind direction around the southern edge was west to east, which would imply their center is pretty good.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:37 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
I dont think the center is near the cuban coast,, just south of where clark said recon might of placed it.. I think more near 22.9N and 75W. Clark said recon had it about 23.5 I guess we will see where they place it.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:41 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
Just what I needed. I'm leaving Port Canaveral on Thursday for a cruise to the Bahamas!
Looks like I won't need to drink as much as I thought.
Any ideas on what I might expect?
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:46 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
Quote:
Just what I needed. I'm leaving Port Canaveral on Thursday for a cruise to the Bahamas!
Looks like I won't need to drink as much as I thought.
Any ideas on what I might expect?
Normally they try to reroute you to a diff destination. However, leaving from Canaveral doesn't leave many options. I would call everyday for updates before you leave, and get hold of a bunch of motion sickness meds.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:48 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
I am still confused, especially after reading the HPC version. I think they are a little confused on their directions; either that or they forgot to mention it first getting into the GOM, then moving northward due to weak ridging. They imply the GFS takes it up along the east coast of Florida, then up the SE coast. I thought the 12Z still had it crossing SFL into the GOM? Oh well, time to find my darn Tapcons
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:50 PM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
It's not XXTD10 not to say what was left of 10 didn't help 12 to Form, old saying you can keep beating a dead horse no matter how hard you beat it the horse doesn't get up..
Dave
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:59 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
There does appear to be a circulation on the VIS at the head of the curved band of convection around 23.5 N (with a weaker swirl in the low clouds just WSW of there). The center of the broader system seems to be further south.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
Looking at latest Recon data wonder if they jumped the gun a little maybe close to a TD, better to play it safe.
Dave
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:06 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas
|
Quote:
Looking at latest Recon data wonder if they jumped the gun a little maybe close to a TD, better to play it safe.
Dave
Can you help me with what it says? I can not figure it out.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:06 PM |
|
|
5pm disco
|
if stewart does the 5pm advisory package i'm sure we'll get an explanation of the naming choice... he's good about that kind of stuff. calling it 10 would be kind of a stretch.. the center we tracked off td 10 died out on august 18, with the mid level center tailing behind. the actual track of the low level feature would be well west of what we've been calling xtd 10 and it doesn't exist anymore. the mlc hasn't been very solid either; really just a vorticity imprint. considering that official advisories for td 10 ended on august 14... bringing it back on august 23 would be even odder than ivan being reclassified off its mid/low vorticity remnant 3/4 days after the hpc stopped tracking it... or bonnie coming back from a wave after a five day hiatus from td 2 earlier last year. this is more in line with td 6/td 7 in 2003 (which was a depression east of the antilles.. then a depression that slid into georgia)... the two vestiges were related, but indirectly.
anyway, that's just a bunch of scientific mumbojumbo.. i'm more concerned with the classification of sheared and hybrid systems than dead/alive systems.
HF 2006z23august
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:17 PM |
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
if you look very closely, the center seems to be between the two convective masses
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:18 PM |
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
Hi, I'm back! Been busy, long story...
Just watched our local CBS station weather update. Their VORTEX (I think that's what they call it) model has it right off the EC of Central Florida Thursday morning...but he did say that this was not set in stone. TWC mentioned 2 things: dry air in front of this system and the warm waters right ahead of it.
I hope people are paying attention to the weather or they might be in for a surprise!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
Yes, I see it...it looks to be exactly where Recon put the center. Anticipating the 5pm advisory from NHC.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:23 PM |
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
Quote:
Hi, I'm back! Been busy, long story...
Just watched our local CBS station weather update. Their VORTEX (I think that's what they call it) model has it right off the EC of Central Florida Thursday morning...but he did say that this was not set in stone. TWC mentioned 2 things: dry air in front of this system and the warm waters right ahead of it.
I hope people are paying attention to the weather or they might be in for a surprise!
Like Melbourne area?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
i backtracked on satellite imagery and this is indeed the same wave as TD10, but it split in half a few days ago, it seems that the remnant of TD10 is actually down around Nicaragua, and TD12 formed from the northern half
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:30 PM |
|
|
Awaiting 5pm
|
Eagerly awaiting the 5 p.m. track and discussion. The first track will probably be going over someone's house here in Florida. If it's yours, you are probably in luck that it won't really do that. Hopefully it just stays as a much needed rain maker.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:32 PM |
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:32 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Forecast Advisory is out
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL WARNING STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 75.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
forecast advisory out
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
landfall near WPB forecast near hurricane intensity
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
and forecast to hurricane in five days
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
I don't remember seeing a cone this large before
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
its just a slow-mover. they're almost always like that. -HF
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
A vortex message was issued at 2015Z, has the center a little north and east of the official advisory:
000
URNT12 KNHC 232025
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:15:10Z
B. 23 deg 21 min N
075 deg 07 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 163 deg 012 kt
G. 227 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 1008 mb
I. 25 C/ 246 m
J. 25 C/ 245 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 3 / 1
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 18
MAX FL WIND 29 KT SE QUAD 19:10:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
That's what his model was showing...BUT .... he also said it's early and things could change. I wouldn't take it as a "official forecast". He also said he was waiting for the first advisories from the NHC to get a better idea. I think that's called CYA.
However, if you read between the lines from this part of the statement given by NHC regarding TD #12 you may have a general idea of where it's going:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
FORECASTER STEWART
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hopefully, like HF said, Stewart will be doing the 5pm advisory.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:44 PM |
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
hmmm.. do they usually cancel flights in a tropical storm?
Have 40 people flying into Ft. Lauderdale Friday Night for our Cruise ship wedding in Ft. Lauderdale Saturday Morning Aug 27.. Hate to have people not be able to fly in and miss the wedding
There really is no backup plan so I'll just hope for the best
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
according to the forecast, we will have Katrina by this time tomorrow, which will break the old record for 11 storms by 4 days, leaving 97L a few days to organize and get named in order to break the record for L (also Aug 28; both were in 1995)
also, this thing is moving so slowly that the 24-hour forecast points on weather underground look like 12 or even 6 hour points
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:46 PM |
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1... CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
CORRECTED WARNING SECTION
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Well...that is a large cone of death area. However, if you count the margins of error on each side of the track, that would account for some of it.
Believe me, it will shrink before too long!
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
This may be the first double hit since Erin in 95. I guess my concern is it intensifying in the gulf and heading for the panhandle. We can't take anymore hits. They havn't even picked up my Dennis debris yet.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:56 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Looks like a thursday afternoon landfall, but remember, these storms always like to hit on weekends, So I"ll wishcast a weekend landfall at Minor Hurricane strength
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
What did they correct?
Trunk: I feel for you! The only thing I can tell you is to keep an eye on the weather. I'm not really sure where it's exactly forecasted to make landfall, but it appears to be somewhere in S. Florida. Airports will close if it is too dangerous to fly in/out of there. The cruise ships will do the same, too. I would check and see what their storm policies are...good luck!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:58 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Interesting link on climatology. Most storms from this location in August have not gone into the GOM:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_climo.html
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
i find it a little odd that erin is not on there
erin was never operationally a depression, and was a hurricane by july 31st. it doesn't fit the search criteria. -HF
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:05 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
TD 10 will likely regenerate and should reach at least tropical storm strength.
• The system will likely peak at hurricane strength.
• The system will likely make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Odds favor an area running from Alabama across the Florida Panhandle (possibly within 100 miles of either side of 87.0W), but this is not yet assured.
The 8/23 18z guidance still generally supports the idea of this system crossing Florida (probably southern Florida) and entering the Gulf of Mexico. There are some exceptions.
As for Invest.97L, the risk of U.S. landfall appears minimal.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
I think they changed it to a Friday afternoon landfall and out of central gulf coast of Florida by Saturday. The one thing that worries me is the forward speed (as of right now). I guess that could change; however, the slower it goes, the more time for it to get its act together and also the rain could just sit there and soak us.
Of course, this is all just my thinking...and I could be completely wrong.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:11 PM |
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
Stewart discussion at 5:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.disc.html
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Quote:
This may be the first double hit since Erin in 95.
What about Frances last year?? Granted, she did not get far out in the Gulf, but, technically this does qualify as a double landfall.
--Lou
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Are you talking about a different storm when referring to TD#10? Or are you referring to the old TD#10 which is now TD #12?
I understand that some here think this should still be TD #10, but it's not. It's TD #12 and to avoid confusion to us and newcomers who will no doubt tune in here, can we just refer to this storm by the NHC's official name?
Whether it's actually TD 10 or TD 12 won't matter much by tomorrow, because it will be Katrina.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Your right recmod....it did get back to the gulf...but I do not think it regained hurricane strength before second landfall...Erin was a hurricane at both landfalls and Katrina to be could make cat 1 before the 1st landfall, and should definately before the second
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:21 PM |
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
And what about Ivan? It hit Pensicola, then looped around, went out over the Atlantic near NC, passed over FL as a Tropical Wave, and hit Texas. Hmmm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan1.gif
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:24 PM |
|
A few notes
|
* The error cone isn't any larger than normal -- just appears that way because of the slow motion and the scale of the image. I believe they use long-term average errors to compute the error cone, averages that don't change during the season.
* Erin is not listed in the comparables because the wunderground comparables only include depressions, not tropical storms. Erin went directly to a tropical storm when it was classified in the record books.
* The last storm to do the double landfall in Florida was Frances last year -- it re-emerged over Apalachee Bay for a short period of time before making landfall again near St. Marks south of Tallahassee. Erin was the previous storm before that, however, and that overall track may not be out of the realm of possibility. Model guidance is still split, so we'll have to see. Still, I'd trend more towards the globals and away from the BAM/A98E/LBAR limited models.
Edited to add...
* Remember: please do not post the entire text of NHC advisories! Please use hyperlinks or just quote the single part of the statement that you wish to discuss or highlight. It is not necessary to post the entire text of the reports -- they are available elsewhere on the site, from the NHC, and from many other sources -- and that's why a few posts have been sent to the Graveyard from time to time. Thanks!
I updated my blog post with some information earlier today, with perhaps another update later. I'm in line with the NHC track & intensity thinking, though I'd have the turn back towards the west as not being quite so dramatic. This would bring the storm across the state slightly further north and shift the projected area along the Gulf coast to the east. Still, anyone east of New Orleans needs to really watch this one...I don't think it'll be a Texas storm, though. Nevertheless, keep an eye to the SE...just in case, as always.
97L is getting there, though isn't looking quite as promising as earlier today. It's far out, so the NHC will likely be conservative with it.
i just logged on and started answering those posts with edits.. and then i see that you've already done them all... waste of effort. -HF
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:24 PM |
|
|
Katrina
|
The projections are that Katrina won't become a hurricane till it gets in the Gulf.
It will be interesting to see how well she follows the early path the NHC is forecasting.
We'll see...
the last thing the Gulf of Mexico needs in the middle of August is a tropical cyclone.
The waters are very warm right now...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5pm disco
|
Good discussion by Stewart...and for those interested, he does address the TD 10/ TD 12 dilemma.
It's raining cats and dogs here, so I'm gonna hang it up for a while.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:26 PM |
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Interesting info coming out of the 5pm Discussion there on naming conventions as HF suggested earlier. Also Stewart explaining the Ivan comparision, which someone mentioned earlier. It's almost as if the NHC has been browsing the board, and they probably do, I remember Ed Dunham saying that NWS looks on here from time to time.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Quote:
Eagerly awaiting the 5 p.m. track and discussion. The first track will probably be going over someone's house here in Florida. If it's yours, you are probably in luck that it won't really do that. Hopefully it just stays as a much needed rain maker.
LOL well right now the NHC five-day forecast does indeed take it right over my house. So I guess I'm in the clear.
To be serious though, all morning long I had thoughts of Tropical Storm Allison. I was living in Houston at the time, and I remember how that morning the NHC's website said there was a "possible disturbance" in the Gulf, recon to investigate if necessary. Six hours later we had TS Allison and I was driving home through the start of our 36 inches of rain.
The slow speed of TD 12 worries me. Despite having a dry August, most of Florida has had well over average rainfall amounts for the season. The last thing we need is a storm that will stall or drag its heels crossing the state.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:44 PM |
|
|
Re: TD 13
|
Looks like the system out by the CV is already....
MM
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:45 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Bahamas Radar
|
The radar out of Nassau not showing too much just yet, a few showers and storms. Will have to wait for TD12 to move west farther.
I have attached the image of the radar, because the site is responding very slowly, like last time i used it.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:50 PM |
|
TD 12
|
Like the discussion on TD12 - certainly very interesting reading and outlining the conventions and justification as to why we have TD12 not TD10. Satellite presentation is good, and with a well defined wind field, it only needs to generate more convection in the western semi-circle to really get going. Upper level and sea surface conditions favour this, and the Bahamas are unlikely to cause much hinderence in this regard. Gut instinct is that if it consolidates tonight, we will have a Category 1 Hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Florida east coast somewhere between Ft Lauderdale and WPB. With the terrain over southern Florida not being too extreme, it will probably weaken only a little as it traverses the peninsula - but this will be down to forward speed at the time.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
When I posted earlier(before the 5 p.m.) and said if the first track goes over your house the odds are that it actually won't, little did I realize that it would be my own house that I would actually be talking about. I guess that was a "wishcast", so it actually(hopefully) won't do that in the long run. Time to polish up the anemometer.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
WXMAN...I used to think that way and was relieved when I saw the Dennis 5 day forecast............6 days later I got to stand in the eye! I have much more faith in NHC forecasts than ever before.
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:06 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
It's good to see Boynton Beacher's on here. Regarding storm strengths and travel--would they fly out of PBI say on Thursday, 12noon, with all of this going on?.. I'm supposed to be heading to Hershey, PA.. perhaps I'll be working in the Hurricane Shelter!?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Looking at the visible sat..it looks like the center of circulation has reformed just south of the NHC position..it looks like the multiple circulations mentioned are dissipating and the new LLC is at about 22.7...I may be wrong because it is a short loop..
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:18 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Wow, take a look at the 18z GFS.
42 hours
120 Hours
Not a lot of movement. (understatement of the year there) Some high rain amounts could be coming.
On another note, it sure is nice to see a tropical system that is forecasted to cross the peninsula with a track that does NOT take it through Polk County. After C, F, and J, last year, enough is enough!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:23 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
NOWHERE in Fl is 'out of the woods'---look at the error cone!
I know you were just trying to be funny, BR, but, such comments are a bit premature.
ps--Polk County is flooded out now....we are looking to get a federal declaration. MORE rain, we do not need...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:28 PM |
|
Re: TD 12
|
well anyone have a idea as to when they think this will be a rain event for the west coast of florida? friday or sat?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD 12
|
Both..if the system follows the forecast track the west coast will be on the east side of the storm Saturday, with winds coming off the gulf, therefore lots of rain...
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Oh, I know Polk Pundit. I'm well aware of the flooding problems, I live in Polk Co.
I hope I didn't give the impression that Polk is out of the woods, it certainly is as at risk as anyplace. I really wasn't making an assessment of risk in that post, just making a general comment, as last year we were kind of the "poster county" for Florida hurricanes. Of course, with a system whose most significant affects may be rain, it really doesn't matter where the eye crosses.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 PM |
|
Re: TD 12
|
So you think come Sunday the tampa area would be clear if the time frame pans out?
Likely yes, but it is too early to tell -- we have no idea how large the storm will be and thus how far reaching it's impacts will be. The NHC suggests that it will be, so when in doubt, follow their forecasts.
Also, please wait for someone to have the opportunity to answer your question rather than posting in twice in a short span -- it only clutters the board. Thank you! --Clark
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Well, time to throw that theory out the window...at least for now. LOL I thought the same thing...Btw, that discussion from Stewart was fantastic for a depression! I really think he is more enthusiastic than other mets there at NHC.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:50 PM |
|
Re: TD 12
|
From the Miami Weather Office...
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. SLOW MOVING
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THAT
REASON...A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK (ESFMFL) HAS BEEN ISSUED MENTIONING
THE POTENTIAL FOR 5-10 INCHES OF RAINFALL THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND
SATURDAY.
Good thing it's been dry in So. Florida lately...
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:54 PM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
I agree Big Red, I was in the eye of Frances and Jeanne and I am a little nervous here in St Lucie Co. Hopefully it will be a rain event I never take anything for granted. I will be here keeping up with current info. Some mets think it will landfall around Ft Pierce any thoughts anyone?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:58 PM |
|
|
12
|
This is not the place where you want a storm to develop... particularly with nothing to pick it up and throw it out to sea. do we know how long recon is going to stay out there? Because I think we're going to see a TS by 11pm, Too bad there are no Bouys near the region, and it looks like there are only one ship nearby. So, for now we have to be paitent and see how quickly things organize. Once the convection does wrap around this sucker is going to strengthen rapidly. The water temprature is too high, and the islands will only mildly interfere with the storm. Of course, so long as the shear and dry air keeps the convection limited, it'll be stuck at about a 5Kt strengthening every 6 -12 hours.
I also think it'll tend a little right of track then make the hard west turn. (though I think the center also could reform a little south under the midlevel circulation.... so in reality, I have no idea what's going on
-Mark
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 PM |
|
|
Re: 12
|
I'm in Central Florida and we had a wet June and into July but the past few weeks we have been hot and dry and need rain badly. So it depends on where you are in the state I suppose.
The rain we can deal with, lets hope the winds don't get too high.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:07 PM |
|
Re: 12
|
My thoughts exactly. I will gladly welcome the rain.I really wish I could read the models better sometimes it is so confusing to me. thats why I depend on all the knowledgable folks here. Your wisdom is greatly appreciated
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:26 PM |
|
|
Re: 12
|
I was amazed to see this thing develop into a tropical depression. I am just north of Orlando in Longwood, FL and notice that the NHC is predicting close to Hurricane 1 strenghth. Let's put our faith in these experts and hope it is not worse than that. I don't really want to deal with everything that is required to prepare for a Hurricane coming through this area.
I notice that the projected path is a huge cone. Can anyone explain why there is such a large cone for a system that is so close by?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 12
|
OrlandoDan:
The models are highly divergent. Some take it south of Florida into the Gulf (BAM). Others take it over FL into the Gulf (CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET). And still others take it into FL, bounce it off, then have it move up along the coast and hit NC (GFS, LBAR).
Take a look at the tracks here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL122005mlts.gif
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Unfortunately, a number of the models don't show on the above spegetti plots, but you can see several here:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
EDIT: Fixed model names to match latest model tracks...was using noon models from memory in original post
--RC
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:38 PM |
|
|
Re: 12
|
GFS shows the storm over Florida in 60 hours.
I believe it may still be too early to call for any exact path. I'd wait until at least the 5AM update - Wed 08/24. This would give the models time to work out the updated variables for meaningful extrapolations.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 12
|
I agree that cautious watching is in order. Some of the models are much too divergent and the cone of error is just way too large to make an educated "call" on the path of this. Let us (my usual advice) stay vigilent and listen to the experts. The experts did a wonderful job last year in predicting the path of storms. We all know that Charlie's arrival south of its project path was a function of the angle of it coming ashore with the Florida peninsula.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:47 PM |
|
Re: 12
|
One thing I noticed with Frances and Jeanne is that they both passed over or close to 75W/25N, This one was around 2 degrees further S, at about 75/23, and predicted to follow sort of the same path as Frances and Jeanne as far as going across Florida, except further South (by about the same 2 degrees of distance I'm guessing.) I haven't double-checked all my facts, but I am pretty sure about the 75/25, as far as Frances and Jeanne.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:01 AM |
|
Re: Awaiting 5pm
|
Quote:
discussion from Stewart was fantastic for a depression! I really think he is more enthusiastic than other mets there at NHC.
Look where they put (Katrina ?) in 3 days; right up my nose.
72HR VT 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W 50 KT...INLAND
Just 23.2 statute miles away.
<<<Look @ my location.
I had other plans!
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:05 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
I did read one comment that said they thought it would landfall in the WPB area. I really hope if one is going to take the same path as Frances and Jeanne it is a TS and nothing more. On the WPB channel they just gave an update and said by 11 PM they expect to issue warnings for South Florida. He is also saying it is expected to make landfall around Ft Lauderdale area.
He just said expected to landfall Thurs. 2:00 also forcast subject to change
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 12
|
Quote:
OrlandoDan:
The models are highly divergent. Some take it south of Florida into the Gulf (BAM). Others take it over FL into the Gulf (CMC, NOGAPS, UKMET). And still others take it into FL, bounce it off, then have it move up along the coast and hit NC (GFS, LBAR).
Take a look at the tracks here:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL122005mlts.gif
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
Unfortunately, a number of the models don't show on the above spegetti plots, but you can see several here:
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
EDIT: Fixed model names to match latest model tracks...was using noon models from memory in original post
--RC
Actually, I think the models are in pretty good agreement - if u took the average of the Dynamic and Global Models u pretty much get the NHC track. Most them bring it up somewhere near the south end of FL and across. Will we see some changes - absolutely. If there is a change I would tend to say a little further north on the east coast and maybe not such a hard left (more W-NW) across the peninsula. There will be a rather large blocking high off the east coast in about 72 hours which will prevent a northward up the coast or NE out to sea scenario. The mysterious LBAR is the only model that takes it that path. Given the synoptic conditions its got to come across the peninsula at some point.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:45 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
Looks like storms are firing up on the west side , and storms to the east are connecting or wrapping around on latest ir and wv images, might just be pulling itself together?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 12
|
The NHC added an environmental synoptic flight for tomorrow night plus most likely another for Thursday.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:54 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 12
|
With all this discussion about the new TD12 people haven't mentioned much about 97L. NHC is saying that 97L isn't in the most favorable of conditions, but it might slowly strengthen. Looking at the IR loop, I have to say that 97L is looking very good. Given the Dvorak classification a 6 hours ago at 1.5, I'm a little surprised it hasn't been upgraded to a TD yet. If there was a recon flight, I think it probably would be, but it's not close enough to land to warrant a recon yet.
FYI: It is on Floater 2 at SSD now.
--RC
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:04 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
Warily looking at the GFDL right now. The last thing the folks in the Panhandle need is ANOTHER storm. Any further east of the GFDL track would mean a deteoration in conditions for residents on the west side of the peninsula.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:14 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
Quote:
Warily looking at the GFDL right now. The last thing the folks in the Panhandle need is ANOTHER storm. Any further east of the GFDL track would mean a deteoration in conditions for residents on the west side of the peninsula.
The models are going to be fairly clueless until there is a well defined circulation center. The possibility for it to slow or stall out as it goes a little further west is definitely there too, I think some confusion from some of them may be showing this.
I'd say by 11AM tomorrow we'll know more.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:18 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
Mike has a good point, the models are all over the place, and I really wouldn't focus on any one at the moment, you start seeing them cluster up somewhat perhaps in the next day or so and then I'd start paying a lot more attention to them... they're always interesting to see them going every which way.... right now its a case of pick your poison...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:34 AM |
|
|
|
katrina problems
|
well... nhc forecast track sort of fits what i was thinking the other day, so just going to roll with it. the intensity forecast is probably conservative beyond 60hrs or so. florida is in for a shellacking fri-sat, but probably nothing compared to what folks along the northern gulf coast will get mon-tue next week, if the forecast track verifies. some of the gfs clusterbrain type models have it stalling over florida then moving NE off the east coast now.. but i'm not buying that at all. spurious low/trough is shown east and northeast of the system.. and i think they're trying to take it up baroclinically/recurve the hurricane by overdoing its height field dent. but anyway, the primary should probably be close to where the track is shown.. somewhere from dade up to martin county centered near boca raton... as a low-end hurricane friday afternoon. this isn't a huge limb.. early prog is mon/early tue along the central gulf coast btw pcb and grand isle with an early center near biloxi-mobile... as a major hurricane.
for 97L... it's a sheared tropical depression. if that had been a rated tropical storm that acquired that profile.. that's what it would be called. i'd be interested to see what the unflagged quickscat vectors are on the north side. the center is near 16/39... slowing down and being drawn back in by the trailing convective mass. the globals and dynamic models are all taking it abruptly north along 50w. i'm not buying the recurvature yet.. something doesn't look right. think the ridge weakness is too dramatic.. see how the globals are taking it north and stalling it near 35/50? my bet is that it stairsteps wnw/nw.. maybe recurves further east.. or maybe stays weak and gets under another span of ridge.
other basin features:
weak impulses in/near the caribbean have that blotchy/overzealous convective look that goes hand-in-hand with mjo enhancement. they're too close to soon-to-be katrina to do anything, probably.
the wave trailing 97L puffed out in spite of a more moist environment. globals track it, keep it low, generally overdo it. got to see how much signature maintains itself.. it will probably active further west, just may not be the sort of thing to develop much.
anything hanging south or east of future katrina will have to be watched if it persists... the trades are very sluggish in the western atlantic and mjo is making everything more convectively active than it otherwise would be. should be shortwave/coastal low that should peel out off the mid atlantic. once it gets a few degrees east of 12/katrina, the storm should move more or less west as the heights rise in its wake.
HF 0134z24august
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:47 AM |
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
"...early prog is mon/early tue along the central gulf coast btw PCB and grand isle with an early center near biloxi-mobile... as a major hurricane..."
Hank, I missed the 'good' news.
I noticed a 'staircase' of dry air ahead of 97L. West through Northeast. Loop indicating it drying out even further during the day to the NW of 97L.
CMC model had TD12 making landfall, on the Northern Gulf Coast, at 983mb on the 00Z run last night. I quit looking...after I saw that.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:55 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
HanK FranK gives us the skinny that others charge $ THOUSANDS for! I'm honored to be allowed on this board. Our other Mets and Mods do yeoman service as well.
I wish I had orange groves. The info posted here would greatly help my trading.
I'll pay a bit for my bandwidth in less than 2 weeks.
uh.. dude.. i'm more likely to be wrong than not. probably close is all. -HF
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:57 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
my initial thoughts on this thing wants to lean towards SE La.... obviously ridging will be the key factor where this thing utlimately ends up... however anywhere on the northern gulf coast could end up with the problem... who knows what the intensity will be.... IR loops shows that it continues to slowly build convection near and around the center, slow organization continues but I don't see this thing bombing out prior to impacting florida, ULL and some shear might inhibit that scenario... once in the GOM, if that's where it ends up, all bets are off.... major certainly not impossible but I sure hope not... and especially if this thing decides to head towards the panhandle....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:00 AM |
|
Re: 12
|
The Bahamas are made up of many little islands and in between there are many areas (the Bahama Bank) where the water is only 10-15ft. deep and then it drops into deep pockets. Does the storm have a better chance of strenghthening when its over the deeper pockets of ocean in between the islands of the bahamas? Like the Tongue of the Ocean (South and West of New Providence / Nassau)? I believe the warmer waters are in the shallower areas and the cooler waters in the pockets, correct? I would think the actual path of center of circulation would directly affect the strengthening within the next 48 hours if in fact it travels over the shallower areas. What do you guys think?
The center of circulation looks to be farther south than the satellite pictures show which I believe will lead to a landfall a bit farther south in Florida than the NWC model. Just my opinion.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:07 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Yes, SSTs seem quite conducive to development. The Bahama's are running mostly 85-87C with a few cooler pockets. SSD is showing that after it crosses into the Gulf the temps retain the mid to upper 80's.
GFS seems not to know how to handle the storm still. I'm waiting for the 11pm NHC update as well as the some new model runs. Any clue why FSU has the pressure GDFL run, but none of the vorticity runs? (Working that is...they are listed, but they are all missing images)
--RC
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:30 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Hey Justin, look at it this way a cat 1 storm isn't so bad compared to what all of us in South Florida were looking at 13 years ago tonight. Hurricane Andrew was ready to make American history at 4:30 a.m on the morning of August 24th. I remember it like it was only yesterday.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:31 AM |
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Quote:
So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.
NHC isn't saying Anything about a Hurricane Landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W (Thursday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND (Friday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:33 AM |
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
I would really like some input as to how strong this thing will be when it hits.Being 1.5 miles from the beach here,I need to make a plan now.I assume I will be under a warning tommorow morning.As of now I am in the center of the cone,And this thing is close.Thanks in advance.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Quote:.AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IFQuote:
So it appears that the growing consensus is that it should/could be a Cat 1 at landfall (over my house) in Florida. Hmm. Any outside chance of it being stronger? The water temps are sure there for her to intensify.
NHC isn't saying Anything about a Hurricane Landfall.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W (Thursday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND (Friday Afternoon)
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS
SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
60kts Gusting to 75kts is ...69mph gusting to 86mph over water.
50kts gusting to 60kts is ...57mph gusting to 69mph. Inland
Repeating the above post.
NHC is not forecasting a Hurricane, prior to a possible FL East Coast landfall at this time
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/232040.shtml
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:41 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
97L BYU high-res QuikSCAT plot -- http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_byu_at_image21/byu_hires20052352052_97.png
I don't think they do anything for wind-flagged vectors, and I believe that covers this morning's pass instead of this evening's, which has a large gap in the east Atlantic. I swear, that satellite always misses the active events... Anyway, based off of that, plus the appearance and versus how storms of that appearance generally are rated, it's more than likely a TD and possibly a TS. But, since it's so far out and with Irene apparently being the quota for the year, the NHC is going to be slow to do anything with it as long as it maintains that look, for better or worse. Just wish we could've had our consistency earlier, but I'm not going to rehash that argument (as with TD 10).
More later...
well, it isn't conclusive. looks like all the gale vectors would be rain-flagged. still if you adjust the t-numbers for shear, paired with the 25-30kt unflagged stuff, it's a convincing case for a depression. i guess 'tropical low' will have to do for now. -HF
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Your right,the offical forcast is not,But they are saying there could be a hurricane at landfall.The water is soooo warm here,that nothing would surprise me.The fact that it is so close worries me a little,will people be prepared?I have no choice but to prepare for a hurricane.It does not take much to lose power here.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:49 AM |
|
|
|
Satellite
|
Clark's post reminded me that there should be a satellite blackout for a while tonight. Starting around 04Z. SHouldn't be longer than 3-4 hours.
I'll see if I can find that link.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2341804.01.txt
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:51 AM |
|
Re: Satellite
|
They went with Tropical Storm watches, Vero southward.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:51 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
danielw and ftlaudbob...You are posting 21Z NHC information. This is the 5PM forecast. Please watch the time on top of the advisories...We are only 10 minutes from the 11PM. Which would be 03Z...Which may be out as I'm typing. Hope you understand, but people could be visiting the site could be confused if we don't monitor the time conversion on the advisories.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Bob...you have been here long enough to know what you should do about a possible landfall in your area...whether it be a TS or a Hurricane.
Pay attention to the local EMS...you should already have your plan in place.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
As of 11pm I am under a TS watch.Not much sleep here for a while.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:53 AM |
|
|
|
Local WPB Meteorologists take
|
My Area Forecast Discussion, Immediate Bulletin
Palm Beach County and Central/South Florida
900pm EDT Tuesday August 23 2005
Please use as a supplemental Informational discussion to Official discussions and forecasts for pre-planning
As of the 18Z run of the GFS model...
As of the latest I want to stress one issue about TD#12. According to all the upper and low level wind charts and overall pattern for TD#12. AT this time I still am not convinced that TD#12 when it does become a tropical storm will go into the Eastern Gulf. In fact what I still see here is a situation that it may hang around over the East Central Florida coast and our area into the weekend. The steering pattern at this time seems to implicate that this potential tropical system will linger and stay more on the east side of florida and eventually be picked up by the weak westerlies and go north as we get into the weekend.. The motion looks to be slow and also a large amount of rain is expected in fact the GFS has been consistent in showing the synoptic weather pattern that it will be locked in over our county and Lake Okeechobee. Once the low center gets over us right by PBIA location Friday what this spellsis long term winds and rains and significant flooding potential.
Also there is a mid to upper ridge and high that will be over the Central Gulf of Mexico which will act to block the tropical system from going west and also a strong surface high over the Mid Atlantic States by Friday will also make this system a slow boat to China motion!
Repeat this is not in any terms lifting away quickly from our area......The low center gets to the SOutheast coast of Florida late night Thursday on GFS....this looks respectable to the synsptic pattern setup..
So in summary, a signifant rain and wind event for our area for over night Thursday, Friday and the weekend as it looks.. I favor also the northern track then the the southern track and also moving slowly northward eventually.
Progressive weather pattern in the U.S also will impact the weather pattern downstream and this also implies less chance that this system would move across the state into Eastern Gulf. We will not know this for sure until next day or so..but the weather systems I described here will support a lock down on this system for a prelonged period of time more than what I feel what the official forecast is showing. Hopefully as I agree that this will stay as a tropical storm. A strong one with rain amounts 4-8 inches easily and winds anywahere from 30-60mph range.
This system has the potential just as T.S. Jerry in 1995 and as well as similarities to Erin in 95 too but staying over the peninsula!. Potential flooding and prolonged winds at least not the intensity of Jeanne or Francis thank God..As far as Lake Okeechobee water levels as they released the water in the past it was a very very good decision in my view for this developing flood potential situation and we are not talking about small flooding we are talking about possible BIG TIME FLOODING!.
Not to panic anyone that is not what I am implying but now is the time to prepare for the worse case scenario..all essential services and agencies should be on standbye for the worse case scenario...only hope is that it stays as a weaker tropical storm not to give us too much rain...the waters offshore are super warm and convective bands will bring a deluge of rains...as we get into Thursday Friday and even into the weekend sometime at least Saturday...maybe Sunday too since if it does move slowly north it will still influence us with it's moisture and circulation being fed with the very warm waters off our coast.
Will keep tabs on this as time goes on but for now..I dont think there is more to say and much to change...just getting ready for a very wet and windy period...We can easily go beyond the 9 inches for the month of August as it looks now once this finally goes to our north after the weekend..as I see it..get ready and you should have been ready for this significant event for our area..tropical storms can give us major problemswith flooding as you have heard in the past from other places in the deep south from the past ears..Miami is doing a fine job in alerting the public on this system and made a good decision as to the extent and effects of this potential significant tropical storm that will effect our area...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:56 AM |
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Here's what I see.... as an amateur...
I don't buy the recurvature after it touches SE Florida - what would steer it that way? Where's the feature that would do that? I just don't see it in the overall weather pattern.
I think its going to come into the gulf, and 72 hours from now the AVN says the sheer environment is going to be good for intensification. That's bad timing - just about when this thing will be heading in that direction. SSTs off Destin two days ago were EIGHTY NINE Fahrenheit (no, that's not a mis-type - I was out 20nm in my boat, and that's what I MEASURED) That's bathtub warm, and LOTS of fuel for this thing if she gets out here.
I agree that none of the models have a handle on the initialization right now that "works" - and the only dynamic model I see a run for is the GFS. The numercials have a horrid record the last couple of years - I'm not buying their solutions. I suspect the GFS is too far east, for the same reason I believe it won't recurve before it crosses the peninsula - what draws it that way? I don't buy the evolution of the pattern that the GFS puts in place to cause it, and thus, I don't buy the "big bend" either.
As someone who's taken two whacks this year already (Dennis being the worse of the pair) and having been nailed by Ivan, I certainly don't want another one. Nonetheless, unless I see major motion away from this general direction in the next 48 hours I'm going to make sure I have my Tapcons at the ready for the house and my boat prepared to move - again.
My gut and look at the overall pattern suggests further west than us, but this far out little errors in terms of track make for huge errors in terms of where she ends up.
What I think is reasonably certain at this point is that SOMEONE is going to get shelled by this puppy; SE Florida looks to get something, but probably nothing major. The gulf coast, on the other hand, is an entirely different matter.
It would be nice if this thing came inland and rained itself out as it headed north, but that looks like a long shot from where I sit here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:00 AM |
Re: katrina problems
|
fsu and gfl models are showing td 12 moving nw and pretty much touching cape canaveral and moving north towards jax and then notheast put in to the atlantic ..but this shows to be a slow pattern
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:01 AM |
|
|
|
UPDATED Forecast
|
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.7N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 26.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCMAT2.0508240248
this is an edited version of the 11 PM EDT Advisory.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Looks like they moved that forecast track a little more northward from the 5pm advisory. I am still concerned about the rain event for the state more than I am the wind; of course, this could change in the next 48 hours. Polk county doesn't need any more rain than it already has.
Time will tell. Looks like it's slowing down and starting to get its act together.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:08 AM |
|
|
|
Re: katrina problems
|
Ok, TD12...
The system has definately taken on a strong Comma appearence - that would seem to be Dvorak 1.5+, with SSD is saying 2.0 about an hour ago. The IR signature is definately getting its act together - less of a blob and more of a tightly defined Comma shape.
Models are still divergent - we'll have to wait for the overnight runs with the TD data input. Right now most of the models were run long enough ago that they were using Tropical Wave data, which is much harder to forcast tracks for. This is especially important becuase GFS seems to be giving an erroneous Atlantic track...so we really need to wait for the NOGAPS, CMC, and UKMET models.
The 11pm intensity chart table gives the storm a 35% chance of being hurricane strength guesstimated around landfall time (48 hours). As stated in the 11pm TD12 discussion at NHC, "THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES FLORIDA..."
--RC
The rest of the paragraph...
HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON
HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES
FLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY
WARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT
STILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL
CALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:10 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Had to turn on registered user only for replies tonight. Unfortunately. The watches arent' too surprising. The intensity will be the wildcard, tomorrow should be interesting for sure.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Continuing from my previous post
Reading through more of the TD12 Discussion at the NHC:
GFL is the biggest outlier it seems, both in track and intensity. It fails to bring the storm to a TS at all, then it stalls the system over FL. Every other model, according to the NHC, takes it across FL. With ships showing TS by tomorrow and Hurricane before landfall, this could definately be interesting.
NHC is saying the band of convection has formed on the east side of the center - if that is the case then I'm not seeing any convection north, west, or south on IR. I wonder if the center may be realigning itself below the new convection soon?
--RC
Official NHC product may be found here.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240307.shtml
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:20 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
should make for an interesting thursday/friday. The track is expected more south from where I am (Vero Beach) but as the (volunteer) Red Cross Disaster Services Chair, it will be a very long couple of days. By tomorrow morning we'll probably activate our disaster plan and wait to see if the counties decide to open any shelters.
Here's to hoping for a "non-event"!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:51 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
I've posted a full, long update to the blogs. I'm further east and weaker than the other pros on here and have outlined why in the update. No real update to 97L's status other than what was posted last night and edited this afternoon, as TD 12 is the big game in town right now. As always, if you have any questions or comments, please feel free to let me know.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:08 AM |
|
|
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
I see by the lock down on replies the childern have not been playing well I guess.
The track on TD12 going to be interesting, if she stays weak may just track to W-NW all the way to the gulf with no land fall in FL except maybe the Keys..
Dave
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:08 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
the mets I just watched at 11:00 are saying it can make landfall anywhere from Cape Canaveral to Miami. If you are in Vero, aren't you under a warning? Just curious. I don't think we will have a clue what path it will take until morning possibly.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:11 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Great update Clark very informative. It helps someone like me that is new to storm tracking to better understand the reasoning for the forcasted path
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Debbie:
Remember if you are in the area of the forecast cone then subject to a possible land fall. Don't folllow the thin line folow the cone.
Dave
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:14 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
lock down? not sure what you mean there.
Anyway i just want it to go fast as to sit over the state would be bad for everyone.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:17 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Oh I don't Dave, both Frances and Jeanne made landfall here and I am a nervous wreck. I am fascinated with the storms but I also know the damage they can cause.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:25 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Depression 12 Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South
|
This reminds me a little of Hurricane Erin in 1995. Going to be interesting for South/Central Florida and the Gulf Coast. Question is how strong it will be when it hits Florida and how fast will it develop in the Gulf?
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:25 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
Dave I have a question, when this storm makes landfall will it lose intensity like Frances and Jeanne,and then if it goes across into the Gulf reintensify? Or does it depend on how long it moves across land?
Or anyone that can answer
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:33 AM |
|
Re: UPDATED Forecast
|
once it gets into the gulf it most likely will start to get stronger but how fast it goes once it gets there will make the difference in how strong it gets before a second landfall.
Now all this is IF the track as of now holds 5 days out.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 04:47 AM |
|
|
|
Watch and Warnings Graphics
|
Melbourne NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/
Miami NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mia/
Key West NWS
http://www.srh.weather.gov/eyw/
Hurricane Local Statements
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml
Hurricane Local Statements...do not necessarily imply that the storm is or will be a hurricane. That is the NWS official product name.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 05:41 AM |
|
|
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics
|
speaking of watches and warning, i like what NHC doing by publicly showing the breakpoints...
TWELVE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
FLC011-061-085-086-099-111-AMZ555-575-630-650-651-670-671-240900-
/E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
OCEAN-REEF-COASTAL-FL 25.36N 80.31W
VERO-BEACH-FL 27.66N 80.35W
$$
FLC087-GMZ052-053-072-073-240900-
/E.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.050824T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
SEVEN-MILE-BRIDGE-FL 24.70N 81.14W
OCEAN-REEF-FL 25.33N 80.26W
$$
ATTN...WFO...MFL...EYW...MLB...
in other words this will help with showing where watches and warnings are at...If you have the product to view them......so the local NWS offices and tv stations weather offices should have up todate information quicker........hey they give the lat/long. of these areas in the text.....should work great with the NWS VTEC.... more info HERE
Well, looks like i will have to deal with another system in a few days....i know i am prepared, beacuse of all the "practice/near" misses we have had here in PCB.....i don't think this will be the last for me this year neither....
I have a bad feeling about September......
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 05:58 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics
|
just read the 2a adv.... and i am looking at recon data now..... its good to update the software on the hurricane hunters, but its hard to reunderstand the decoding . *L*
Latest i got, they were in nw quad?
URNT11 KNHC 240519
97779 05144 40249 77700 07700 07015 2120/ /9785
RMK AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 09
NW QUAD
looking at data, haven't seen anything that would show change in strength.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 06:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Watch and Warnings Graphics
|
URNT12 KNHC 240609
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 020 kt
G. 308 deg 071 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 772 m
J. 22 C/ 773 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 05:25:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
BANDING E TO S ON RADAR
going through some changes? seems might be weaker...but there is a new flare up of storms near center
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 06:35 AM |
|
|
|
Supplementary Vortex
|
URNT14 KNHC 240628
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
(edited~danielw)
MF228 M0752 MF034
OBS 01 AT 05:53:40Z
OBS 06 AT 06:18:20Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 12
That "MF034" is 34kts at 22.8N/ 75.2W. That might upgrade to Katrina?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 06:39 AM |
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
My guess is probably not off of that one...34kt at a flight level of 925mb likely isn't going to translate down to the surface. Also, from research done into wind profiles since the new dropwindsondes came into play about 5-10 years ago, 925mb is around the peak winds found (on average) with tropical cyclones. Better bet is that the surface winds are around 30kt -- or still a 35mph depression -- at this time, though they may find higher winds elsewhere.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 06:54 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
i don't think much will happen in short term until the ULL to the nw that is moving sw gets away from the TD... there is dry air on the west side that kind wraped in the system a little and might hold it done for a little bit....but by this afternoon that should be gone and we should have a TS atleast....by 5pm tonight....if not by 11am
great outflow on east side...but the west side of center needs help...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 07:34 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
sats are back and td 12 looking much better....recon just was in the ne quad...should be near center again, heading sw and i think we may have katrina soon.....structure is looking real good....would say center might be near 24n 76w or so......under and in the center of convection
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 08:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
URNT12 KNHC 240756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:39:30Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 128 deg 036 kt
G. 044 deg 097 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 20 C/ 769 m
J. 21 C/ 768 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 06:40:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 40 / 31NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
think we may have Katrina soon!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 08:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
still a td
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST
looks like center is about to be exposed on west side of convection
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:09 AM |
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
Looks like TD 12 is getting better organized as it moves to the NW. I'm watching the SW edge of the Bermuda high that is currently to the NE of the TD. It is currently moving the system to the NW. The big question is; when and if the ridge fills in to the north and turns the storm on a more westward path. This is crucial both for who on the east coast of Florida gets impacted, and how long it stays over water before making landfall, which will affect its intensity. No call on this yet, but it could get as far north as Vero. Gonna check the 6z to see if the GFS is still to the right of the guidance. Saw the CMC, and don't like that solution as it rapidly intensifies the system, brings it into Florida, gets almost to TAmpa, then heads it NE! Is this showing a weaker ridge?? More to come.....back to work. Cheesr!!
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:15 AM |
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
I too saw (and did not like) the CMC, Steve. For what it's worth the FSU MM5 also showed a similar path. Regardless of path, pretty much all of the models (with the exception of the GFDL) now show it rapidly intensifying... some do it before S. FL, some in the Gulf, but nearly all do it at some point now.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:35 AM |
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
When you say rapidly intensifying, like how?
I remember TS Danny a few yrs back that sat in Mobile Bay for days. The amount of rain was unbelievable...48 inches.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:45 AM |
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
The different models show it to varying extents, so I was using the phrase to mean into a hurricane of some sort (a little loose with the word choice I guess). How intense just depends on the model.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:55 AM |
|
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
This morning woke up and look at the satilite of td12 i thought is would be a tropical storm but I guess I was wrong look destinind for flordia.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:02 PM |
|
Re: Supplementary Vortex
|
How easy is it for this storm to make such a sharp westerly turn? What worries me is if it waits even a little it puts it much closer to us. No one that I've talked to is paying any attention to this storm. They say it's going in south as a minor TS. This is the type of storm that could bite you in the butt if you turn your back on it.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:07 PM |
|
|
South Fl...
|
8am #'s have the TD @ 24.4N 76.6W
It's still moving in a NW direction, I would think that
a more W direction would have to start to take place.
An Orlando station Met. just told us that Central FL has nothing to worry about.
This will be a South Fl. event.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:10 PM |
|
Re: South Fl...
|
Quote:
8am #'s have the TD @ 24.4N 76.6W
It's still moving in a NW direction, I would think that
a more W direction would have to start to take place.
An Orlando station Met. just told us that Central FL has nothing to worry about.
This will be a South Fl. event.
I tend to agree, but I'm not willing to go that far right now, especially with the margin of error being what is is.
| Miami Beach, FLA USA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:18 PM |
|
Jim in Miami Beach
|
looks like bad news for us here....anyone have any thoughts on the system getting to hurricane strength once if crosses the gulf stream? The water temps are so high, it seems almost impossible that the bottom won't fall out once Katrina hits the open waters between us and the Bahamas
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:19 PM |
|
|
|
Now a Tropical Storm
|
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: South Fl...
|
TD12 is looking better and better overnight and thru this morning. A CDO has developed and is getting rather circular. The center appears to be on the west side of the deep convection but its completely over the center now. The ULL to the NW appears to be moving off and filling in. Looks like the stage is set for some strengthening today - how rapid is the question?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:27 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Bahamas Radar
|
Another attachment of the Bahamas Radar out of Nassau, TS Katrina showing up on it better now.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:39 PM |
|
Re: Now a Tropical Storm
|
It might be my might satalite reading, or lack there of, but it appears to me that the ULL that was giving TD12 trouble has dissappaited or is really weak now. The only thing I can see that even resembles the ULL is a small swirle in the coulds NNW of the blob of convection. Is that whats left of the ULL? Or is maybe gone completely?
If the latter, I think the storm has potential to really blow up if it gets it act together and doesn't move too fast. Those waters are too warm for only a TS or minor hurricane to develope if there is no shear, it will probably get stronger then that, if theres enough time.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:40 PM |
|
|
|
advisories
|
8am advisory followed by an 805 am advisory indicating the strengthening. that's some rapid update work. just looking at the system profile.. shear is going to be a non-issue shortly... the upper low is backing west of the system and now enhancing its outflow to an increasing degree. there is the issue of that dry air slot that has been impinging on the north and western sides of the storm since yesterday.. that should leave the system open sw by this afternoon. best bet is that the storm turns wnw this afternoon and takes a day or day and a half to slowly work the dry air slot out. think it will reach the florida coast around boca raton early afternoon friday as a category 1 hurricane. going to leave my al/ms as a major (prob cat 3) around late monday prog open for now... will probably correct this once the storm has negotiated florida if it needs it.
out to the east 97L is doing the multiple-center thing. never mind that it is probably generating near-gale or gale force winds in the convective region.. it is poorly organized now. the center that ran out yesterday is tucking back up to the convection.. another shot out overnight and is co-orbiting yesterday's center. models still recurve this thing unilaterally near 50w in a couple days. i'm holding my breath on this one.. the late period mid-latitude stall shown makes me think they're trying to bust it through a ridge, and that it will work its way further west. all it has to do is move slower than progged for the next 3-4 days and the ridge will build back, so i'm uncertain on it to say the least.
watch those convective complexes tagging along south and east of katrina. with mjo favorable there's the outside shot that they try to develop, or at least provide local weaknesses in the low level wind field that add jooks and jives to katrina's track. have to watch around the entire caribbean for such things.
the much-developed trailer wave to 97L is still getting some support, but convection devoid. it may activate in a few days, but right now is just a skeletal wave.
HF 1240z24august
| Miami Beach, FLA USA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:41 PM |
|
Re: Now a Tropical Storm
|
I agree...I have a bad feeling about this thing really blowing up, especially if it moves slightly slower than expected....anyone have any information from models or otherwise in agreement?
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
Hey HF,
Please look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
click on the Trpical Frcast points, Isn't the center already North of the Forcast Points?
Will we see the models show landfall a bit more North @ 11?
I do agree with your thoughts of Boca, or maybe a bit more North.
well, it's supposed to turn back wnw at some point. soon i'm thinking. it's rounding that upper low just a little more... the degree of ridging isn't changing a whole lot. -HF
| naples |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:53 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
HF, do you think even if Katrina were to form into a Cat 1 that those of us on the west coast probably won't see much more than a lot of rain and a little wind.
that sounds about right. -HF
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:53 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Katrina Forms Near the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches up Vero South
|
Is there any possibility this storm could track as far as Louisiana/Texas if it gets into the Gulf? I will be out of town so just for planning purposes was wondering about that. Right now it looks like it might be a threat down the line to the central/eastern gulf coast. Is that track pretty certain? Just wondering what you guys think.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:55 PM |
|
|
Re: advisories
|
According to the 8 am position update, the center is approximately 10 miles northeast of the forecast position. Very little difference overall, unless it is a trend that continues.
(Information based on NHC positions plotted through Hurtrack program).
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:57 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
Now they got one named after me, Katrina. Wish it was out to see though.........
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 12:59 PM |
|
|
Re: advisories
|
yeah my wives name is katrina. stay away from volusia county lol please.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
Looks like the 06Z GFS run has now backed off the "up the east coast" scenario and is now very similar to the 00Z CMC. Both models now take the storm across S FL and then just offshore the GOM and run it parallel to the coast with a second landfall between Tampa and Cedar Key. I hope this isn't a trend we're seeing once it gets into the GOM.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
so what does blue mean on a animation?
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:09 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
I was taking my son to school and listening to a treasure coast radio station. He said literally "there is nothing to worry about with this storm. It will be strictly a rain maker." Sounds borderline irresponsible to me. Even a level 1 is something to pay attention to. When Erin hit us at a level 1 we lost power for quite a long time. If it wasn't for stocking up on batteries and what not it would have been miserable.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:14 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
Allison was a "rainmaker" also. And she caused so much trouble. This storm looks much better organized this morning. People should be prepared just in case.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
what is that behind katrina se of her? looks like its trying too push it more towards the nnw.
and where the heck has jb been?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:22 PM |
|
|
|
superstition
|
just an aside, but katrina was the name i picked off the list back when we had the poll on which named looked scariest. i picked one that looked like it would come about in later august.
noticed that my forecast intensity is the highest i've heard anywhere. now i look like chicken little. want to applaud everybody for not cat 5'ing the situation.
HF 1322z24august
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:26 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
I think we'll see a significant shift to the right at 11. Just my hunch.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
Quote:
so what does blue mean on a animation?
There's a color scale on the bottom that relates it to predicted pressure. The more blue, the deeper the storm.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:29 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
HF
It's the name I picked too.
Go back a few posts and read Ron Basso's post. I saw a model a few days ago that hinted at the same thing. Cross SE Fl, up the coast and back in again north of Tampa. Wish I could remember which model it was.
Is there a chance this could happen??? I am not good at reading the set up for what will/won't "direct" this storm.
Help please.
Thanks!
Dotty
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:29 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
Folks who want to take a shot with gut feelings or forecasts without much reason to back them up can use this topic here that I created. We're going to start moving posts without any reasoning off otherwise.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:30 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
If there is a lunge to the right than my thought is that Katrina will make landfall further north than Boca Raton area.
But it will be equllay interesteing to see if its speed has changed as well. We do not want it going slower-
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: advisories
|
The NHC and the weather channel as well as local tv,say landfall will be near Ft. Lauderdale.So I have to plan on that,only question now is how strong it will be.I think there will be many people here caught with there pants down.This area where she is now,is known to cause rapid intensification.
bob, i'm sure you'll be fine. and people will wear their pants correctly. -HF
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:38 PM |
|
Re: advisories
|
Has everyone forgotton already!! Today is the anniversary of Andrew. Hmmmm
Looking at Katrina and the rapid developement, could be interesting.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:39 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
Quote:
just an aside, but katrina was the name i picked off the list back when we had the poll on which named looked scariest. i picked one that looked like it would come about in later august.
noticed that my forecast intensity is the highest i've heard anywhere. now i look like chicken little. want to applaud everybody for not cat 5'ing the situation.
HF 1322z24august
Gee thanks, you think my name is scary huh?????
| TomKuhn |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:40 PM |
|
|
Re: South Fl...
|
I have been reading this boeard for quite some time, thanks for the great site! I have been looking at the FSU Met site quite a bit this year, and am wondering what some of the different model types (950mb Vorticity, Theta E, shear, Zonal Shear, etc) mean. When gathering data for predictions, what model types are more often used?
Tom
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:44 PM |
|
Re: South Fl...
|
Has anyone looked at the CMC model? What the heck is that?
cmc model
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:45 PM |
|
|
Re: South Fl...
|
Is that what you are referring to Katrina?
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:48 PM |
|
Re: South Fl...
|
Isn't that Katrina? Look at the GFS one too.
gfs model
click the forward button on the right
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
Quote:
HF
It's the name I picked too.
Go back a few posts and read Ron Basso's post. I saw a model a few days ago that hinted at the same thing. Cross SE Fl, up the coast and back in again north of Tampa. Wish I could remember which model it was.
Is there a chance this could happen??? I am not good at reading the set up for what will/won't "direct" this storm.
Help please.
Thanks!
Dotty, it was the CMC (Canadian) model. This particular model is noted for rapidly overdeveloping tropical cyclones and so the results of strength need to be viewed with caution. My point earlier is that the new GFS model has now swung to this track. Given the disparity in the models once it gets into the GOM, its a wait and see mode. The UKMET and NOGAPs models take the system more W-NW into the north-central GOM with time.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 01:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
those models are strengthening the storm a little much for how close to/over land they keep it. whats funny is that the models keeping it more over water don't strengthen it as much. the nhc solution is a good compromise, because it makes a lot more sense.
force, please do not reference andrew. just as soon as i comment on how nobody was cat 5-ing... you have to go do that. if you're going to imply that an extreme hurricane is in the works, support your idea with some real facts.
HF 1357z24august
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:00 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
What do you mean by a shift to the right? Are you talking about the storm's right?
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
looks like Katrina has good banding and outflow going.
Wouldn't surprise me to see a Hurricane by 11pm tonight.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:01 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
Is there any information on how the weakness in the ridge is doing? Is it trending weaker or beginning to fill in?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
From that infrared shot I would think Katrina is moving more to the N-NW from what I am seeing.
I am eager to read the 11AM update.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:06 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
The storm is looking more conservative
!Actually, the models have moved to the east (right):
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
In addition, climatology does not favor a GOM solution:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_climo.html
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:08 PM |
|
|
|
Katrina
|
The inhibiting factor for Katrina was well posted on this site..especially by Hank Frank. It is the dry air on the west side....
IF Katrina gets in the gulf as a hurricane....about the only thing I can think about is the timing....AUGUST....
the weather forecast for Mobile today is 92-95 degrees, and a heat index of 107.
factor that in our what if scenario...
Camille was in August
Andrew was in August
this is August, and it's awfully hot outside....
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:09 PM |
|
|
Re: superstition
|
The NOAA Gulfstream is going out to do Atmospheric soundings and that data will be added to the model runs. This should give a good indication on the Strength of the Ridge. It should start effecting tonights model runs.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: superstition
|
Here is a wonderful site that shows many levels and also 5 day. First Link is the site and the second is the 5 day.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm1/wg8dlm1java.html
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:14 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
HF,
I wasn't trying to alarm anyone, but wanted to show that Katrina is in the same body of water as Andrew was in, perhaps a little farther south of Andrew, but I was trying to reference the SST's and the shearing enviro is the ingrediants for perhaps a more rapid intenseification of Katrina as Andrew did in these same waters. The NHC also puts that comment in their discussion as well for perhaps rapid intensification. That is all I was trying to relay.
andrew was coming rapidly west and already an extreme hurricane as it went over the northern bahamas. the waters near the islands actually aren't very deep in spite of their warmth, and won't support a slow-mover as well as a speeding andrew. it will get stronger, but there isn't time for it to get very strong, anyway. -HF
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:23 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
Is the ridge what is showing in the black to the NW of the storm and what will theoretically push it west..doesn't it look like it's breaking down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:26 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
I think that is dry air. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:28 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
I may be wrong but it looks like the Miami long range radar is starting to pick up the center. Looks to be tracking between WNW and NW.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:30 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
Take a look at this site. Hit the loop button at the top. It takes this on days 5 and 6 back across the state.
unisys weather
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:39 PM |
|
Re: superstition
|
11 Am is out
at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch have been issued for the Southeast Florida coast from Vero Beach southward to Florida City. This replaces the tropical storm watch. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 02:42 PM |
|
update
|
Underground has their 11:00 - http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:14 PM |
|
Re: update
|
got to love these posts that come and wack they gone
anyway it will be IMO when this turns west that we will know where it is going to go.I dont think they are going to get it right on the button as most storms like to be different.Anyway i dont like those model runs from GFS and BAM would not be good to cross the state and go right up the coast anyway its going to be till the turn IMO when we will have a ideas where its going.
And like the NHC i don't see this getting more then a low cat 1 before it hits.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:32 PM |
|
|
Re: update
|
Hey all...
My house is totally under the gun! I live in Deerfield Beach...northern most city in Broward Co. less than 2mi from the beach...and I 'm stuck at a damn convention in Orlando. Told my partner I'm leaving Thurs.afternoon (6-7pm) after the show to go batten down the hatches (again).
It'll be real interesting to see the 5pm report as far as the intensity goes. Lotta "high octane" fuel out there....thank goodness she's a slow mover & waters are shallow...should help to keep her in check.
Riddle me this mets/mods: what's your take on this
www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribvis.html
Looks like dry air to the north being drawn in...could this stimulate an eye wall replacement down the road? If so, would this also help to keep her check?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 03:50 PM |
|
New Thread
|
There's a new thread on the main board, everyone. Please post any future comments or unanswered questions there -- thanks!
-Clark