MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:04 PM |
Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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2:30am Update
Recon reports indicate that the pressure has fallen to 950mb with Hurricane Katrina. A corresponding increase in winds, from the 110mph at the 2a advisory to major hurricane status, is likely forthcoming. The storm is projected to pass near or over the Loop Current, traditionally a region over which intense storms often deepen, meaning the potential is there for the storm to ramp up even further over the next couple of days. The current projected path takes the storm near New Orleans at landfall as a category 4 hurricane, a certainly unnerving scenario for many along the coastline. Stay tuned for updates on the highly uncertain future track of Hurricane Katrina.
Original Update
The National Hurricane Center has shifted the track westward tonight, in response to a general movement of the storm and the models.
It's now forecast to landfall along the Alabama coastline near Mobile County. This is a fairly substantial shift west from the Prior advisory, and it enlarges the cone of error.
The northern Gulf coast will want to watch Katrina. The Hurricane Center mentions the possibility of more adjustments to the forecast track later.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
More to come as we get more information.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Panhandle Coastal Counties West to East
Escambia County, FL, Santa Rosa, County, Okaloosa County, FL,
Walton County, FL,
Bay County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Franklin County, FL
Mississippi Emergency Management Agency (MEMA)
http://www.msema.org/index.htm
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Katrina
Google Map plot of Katrina
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar
Eglin Air Force Bace, Radar Panhandle
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Talahassee, Mobile
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
| MissouriHurricane2008 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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This storm the further west it tracks before turning North is not good, in my opinion. The Gulf waters are very warm and the longer the storm is out there the stronger it will get. I saw one model showing a 30% chance of this hurricane becoming a Cat. 5. The area from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle needs to start preparing and watching Katrina very closely.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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This is unreal. The NHC can't seem to pinpoint the right spot which means you need to throw that line out the window and just follow the cone of uncertainty.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The 1700 advisory expects 148MPH winds.
There was no impact to speak of here on the Treasure Coast. I took a Red Cross team thru St Lucie County today, even spoke to the EM folks. No flooding, nothing.
We did have some good 50MPH wind blasts last nite (got a shrub down) and some very heavy, intense but short lived rain.
Now we wait for the next thing out there.....
Support Your Red Cross Chapters!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Following the cone is quite the prudent thing to do. Truth is, we still have no clue as to where this storm is going right now, just based solely off of the spread in the guidance and how it keeps changing around, so everyone needs to watch this one closely. Truthfully, after a long day, that's about all I can say about it right now.
| Miami Beach, FLA USA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:23 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Trust me, don't focus on a the line of "certainty", but the cone, we got slammed bad last night, after the storm that was supposed to cross the alley ended up coming down 95 into Dade County, the east side of the eye wall railed us for 6 hours....it looks like a war zone around Dade County, but nothing like Andrew...in terms of structural damage or roof damage
| TDW |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The biggest problem from a Monday landfall may be that a lot of people will spend the weekend having too much fun and not paying attention to the warnings. Then Monday rolls around and its too late.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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looking a radar/sat in last hour hr...i think katrina is moving more west, maybe a jog to northwest now than south...not sure if it's just a jog or wobble... will see if the trend continues....of course its hard to tell...she is getting futher away from the radar....beam of radar is shooting higher up in storm....
also signs of an eye?
shaded region
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:31 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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and on the NOAA site if you look at the Mariners 123 rule the entire state is in the cone.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:31 PM |
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radar
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go to the key west radar....it'll show up for at least a few more hours...I think....
however...there won't be any radars in the middle of the Gulf....just a lot of fish souffle'
| 00cj |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:31 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I really hate it when the NHC shifts the track that drastically because then it makes it harder to know for sure if it's correct. I also see what looks like a drift to the nw. Clark I was wondering if your thinking has changed with the system or not ?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I see what you are seeing. We'll have to see if this a wobble, or the start of a trend. For now, the 255 motion does not seem to be happening.
By the way, for radar, I use weathertap.com. It is about $70 per year, but is a great site for radars, lightning data, etc.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Navy has 90L at 25kts and pressure at 1009mb 10N-35W. Does anybody have any more updated info?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Hey guys,
Katrina remains impressive on both radar and satellite, but is still struggling to close her eyewall to the north. If this happens, expect her to really get going, and there are indications this could be happening now. Visible imagery also continues to show a CDO but no eye as yet. Has anyone noticed the really quite frightening thing with the current forecast track and intensity? If it plays out as currently forecast then Katrina will make landfall just to the west of Mobile bay. This means that Mobile Bay would be in the northeast quadrant of a landfalling major Hurricane piling up water from the ocean into the narrowing bay. A flooding nightmare!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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if it follows the 5 PM NHC track, it will go more toward Mobile area. I am thinking the track will shift a little bit more east beforer making the second landfall. As for intensity, i think it could and just may get up to cat. 4 status. The water is so warm down there. Its like putting fuel on a fire.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
The 1700 advisory expects 148MPH winds.
No, it predicts 115kt (132mph) sustained winds. It said the superensemble model brings her up to 130kt (around 150mph) sustained winds before landfall.
Agreed that this was mentioned specifically because of its significance. However that wasn't a prediction.
You know what...130mph, 150mph; both are the same problem. Once you get above 130mph sustained, with higher gusts, does it really matter except for the record books. But let's be accurate about paraphrasing the NHC.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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what a nightmare is right! do you agree with such a dramatic shift west?
| TDW |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Sitting in dowtown Mobile a couple hundred yards from the water, I know storm to our west is bad news. Even Georges flooded us pretty good. There is simply no where for the water to go as it moves up Mobile Bay.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well with the forecast models gradually coming into better agreement it certainly has more weight to the forecast. I dont think we will see a second landfall in Florida from Katrina. I do think we will see her landfall near or to the west of the current forecast track. I dont see any eastward shift likely.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:43 PM |
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I ain't skeered
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yet
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I really hate it when the NHC shifts the track that drastically because then it makes it harder to know for sure if it's correct.
I don't agree with the logic that change equates to increased error. Review Hank's posts in the previous thread. There was discussion of why the track changed.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:46 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well said Miami, with all the uncertainty with this storm, I personally would put my hurricane prep plans in action. The cone of error is there and it is for a reason. Anyone in the cone should take this storm seriously
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Well with the forecast models gradually coming into better agreement it certainly has more weight to the forecast. I dont think we will see a second landfall in Florida from Katrina. I do think we will see her landfall near or to the west of the current forecast track. I dont see any eastward shift likely.
Echoes my thoughts.
The forecast position puts it due S of Pascagoula 20 mi out, which normally would mean a MOB Bay hit with the typical NNE movement towards the last 30 mi N. However the reason for my concern is that the track could move more W, but not E...all it has to do is to move 15-20mi W and goodnight Jackson Cty.
However I need to take my own advice and chill. We like the roller coaster, right? I'll just stay on until Sunday night and we'll see how the cookie crumbles.
| FloydRTurbo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:50 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I posted this right before this thread started...
Pcola said:
Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as Ivan!
I'm not too sure about that, Ivan spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 09:52 PM |
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Round 2, Ding Dingg
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from the NHC track and recent met reports on the news here on LI i think its safe to say that anyone from South Padre Island, TX to Apalachicola, FL should watch but poeple from Grand Isle, LA to Billoxi, MS to Mobile,AL to Pensacola and Panama City, FL should reallyy watch and prepare earlier, than later. And if you prepare later by force, better late then never. Katrina could be extremely dangerous by sun-mon. so Take No Chances.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:02 PM |
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eyewall rebuilding cycle going on...
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eyewall is expanding....hurricane will be a cat 3 before too long....I think....this one is growing in size as well as intensity...and why not?...
it's August and Gulf of Mexico....
Key West Radar loop will verify what I am seeing.....the strong banding, strong core....is now 180 degrees intact...when it wraps...oh boy...
is there any meteorological chance this hurricane could die out?
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: Round 2, Ding Dingg
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NW side of Katrina starting to fill in. Emergency personnel in Mobile/New Orleans seem to be very concerned about this storm.
Sure hope it makes landfall in an unpopulated area.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Has anyone noticed the really quite frightening thing with the current forecast track and intensity? If it plays out as currently forecast then Katrina will make landfall just to the west of Mobile bay. This means that Mobile Bay would be in the northeast quadrant of a landfalling major Hurricane piling up water from the ocean into the narrowing bay.
Of course. This has been common knowledge and a topic of discussion every hurricane season, for simply forever, for MOB residents.
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:09 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I posted this right before this thread started...
Pcola said:Quote:
That would pretty much guarantee the end of Pensacola Beach.....Same track as Ivan!
I'm not too sure about that, Ivan spent a long time at Cat 4 or better through the Carribean and GOM without hitting land, to me that means that the surge surrounding the storm never was impeded enough, hence the 90 ft wave and several 65 ft waves from that oceanographic sensor (I can't recall the exact source of that data, perhaps someone can remind me). Perhaps one of the experts on here can verify that for me (or disprove me), it would seem to make sense that the longer a Cat 4/5 spins in open water, the bigger the surge. I was amazed at the damage in Milton being that it was inland, and the damage to I-10 but that water had no where else to go after being dragged as far as it had been. Any other historical info to back that idea up?
It's more dependent on the speed of the storm, although exposure time does have an effect. The larger waves get, the faster they go, and so will eventually outrun the hurricane. Because of this, there's a maximum sea development for a given storm speed and windspeed. Size also has to do with it, of course.
The worst shape you could be in would be a hurricane approaching you on a linear path and accelerating. The acceleration would allow waves to get "caught" under the storm, leading to a phenomenon called "fetch-trapping".
All of this, of couse, affects both surge and wave height, as they are related.
But I'm a high school student, not an expert
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:13 PM |
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Re: Round 2, Ding Dingg
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What a storm? I was thinking today (a rare event) that we have the most sophisticated models, brainpower, satelittes, radar, MET obs, and the NHC still missed the SW turn once KAT came onshore. Now, we've seen this dramatic swing in the models to the west which I must say climatology would suggest. But, the steering currents are weak. I just remember back to 1985 with Hurricane Elena, for those of us old enough to remember. The predicted path was P'Cola or Mobile, kinda foggy now, but then she stalled, turned east to about 60 miles off Cedar Key, stalled again, and then pushed off W-NW to LA. Right now, I think its wait and see for probably the next 24-48 hrs. I put the entire Gulf Coast east of TX under a watching mode. A weakening ridge and advancing trough introduce a good amount of uncertainty to the forecast. The storm seems to have slowed the last 2 hours or so with even a hint at a NW jog. So, lets see what it does.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:15 PM |
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Re: Round 2, Ding Dingg
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Quote:
NW side of Katrina starting to fill in.
Not quite there yet.
Also, while moisture is wrapping around a little more to the NE, probably because she's moved a little W and has more water to draw on from the E, the dry air has started to erode not only the western side but has made inroads into the SW as well; you can see this on wv imagry. But no question that she is still holding her own.
I think everyone is in overwhelming agreement that once she has more favorable conditions, she'll get going like the Eveready bunny. The NHC PA 14 said expecting Cat 3 today, but it looks like it may take a little longer. However certainly by tomorrow.
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:16 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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It really is too early to dwell on individual models, but the 18z GFS is scary. It takes Katrina west to west northwest to a point right on top of the high heat content pool south of Lousiana, then turns it right and accelerates the storm northward to near or just west of New Orleans... and the whole time it keeps an upper level high centered over the storm with little or no shear. The GFS really must think Katrina will get darn strong because it has the pressure below 980 mb for the last day and a half leading up to landfall and you rarely see the GFS go that low for tropical cyclones.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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18Z MM5 thru 60 hours also has a monster storm approaching the SE coast of LA... I'm wondering if this trend to the west is going to continue to move even farther west .... next 24 hours of model runs will be gut wrenching to say the least... don't like the clustering of them... nor consistancy from run to run like the last two GFS..
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MM5_18z/mm560.html
| zmdz01 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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For those of you who want the ability to track the distance of Katrina from the FSU weather radars. Look towards the bottom of the radar image.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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LI Phil sent me a PM last night saying something how he was worried about about a Cat 3/4 approaching south of Biloxi.... I just dismissed it as Yankee madness.... boy was he clairvoyant relative to what has been forecasted today because NO ONE (except HF, who forecast the MS/AL several days ago, then backed out... hehe) said anything about this impacting the MS coast area...... Phil tell me is ain't so again tonight .... I'm not by any means convinced its going to hit the MS coast... not yet.... time will tell....
Gov of La has declared a state of emergency due to impending severe weather... just heard on NO news
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:32 PM |
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wv loop
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Can anyone comment on the last couple frames of this WV loop. It appears the strongest returns shifted significantly East against the general motion of the storm.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The storm dosent seem to be moving at all from what i see in radar. May be it the begginig of a different track
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Hello Storm Troopers. I have been having this nagging question all day about the possibility of the Yo Yo on a string effect of this storm running out to the far end of the southwestern jaunt and then acclererating back the way it came after leaving tip of Florida only going back through unturned waters and atmosphere. I know that this may sound like a crazy question, but it really bothers me to see that the steering aloft is not more definite, and the very impetus that sent the storm south could suction it up in the same direction due to the pathway being cleared so to speak. If I get a huh????? on this question just consider it a question from a very amateur observer. thanks
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Sitting in dowtown Mobile a couple hundred yards from the water, I know storm to our west is bad news. Even Georges flooded us pretty good. There is simply no where for the water to go as it moves up Mobile Bay.
I think Georges was the worst flooding from a hurricane that Mobile ever had !! If I remember correctly, wasn't it 30 inches ?? I still remember the TV shot of the "Water Street" sign downtown and it literally was !! I'm in west Mobile with a stubborn hubby who won't even consider leaving.
We'll just board up and stock up on water and vienna sausages like we always do. So far from what I've seen, people here haven't even started preps. No lines at the gas stations, no run on the grocery/hardware stores, and no windows boarded. 
I guess they will all wait until the last minute. It didn't help that the governor ordered all of Mobile county evacuated last time a hurricane was headed our way and it turned out to be more or less a false alarm. Better to be safe than sorry I suppose. Hope you're moving your boat Rick !!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:05 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Is this storm even moving?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_NCR_lp.shtml
Also, while it seems like it is ingesting dry air, you can see two new feeder bands forming to the north and west, one arcing over northern florida and the other arcing out toward Louisiana.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:07 PM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Is there a chance this hurricane could still make a right turn and make land fall in the tampa area. What about it slow speed if it continues to move slow may be the trough could have time to pick this up and send it back to the right real fast
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:09 PM |
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90L now an invest
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We have a new invest out in the atlantic. It's the wave following 97L and has been named 90L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:12 PM |
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AL MS LA
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I'm not sure about Phil being clairvoyant. Clairol, maybe.
The 29/18z position of 30.0N/ 88.5W is just south of Petit Bois Island and just west of the MS/AL line in the GOM.
That would be close to Frederick '79's track. Based on the 5 PM EDT Advisory.
State of LA has gone to emergency already!!
http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/WWL082605blanco.b15272b7.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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I know that is rated as one of the hardest places to evacuate, but doesn't it seem at least a little premature?
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:18 PM |
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NO
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not a nice girl if she comes into New Orleans...
won't be a pretty site....New Orleans is UNDER sea level...and the levees cannot withstand anything more than a cat 2...
cat 3 or better...City is UNDER 10 or more of water...period.
fact
watching this is almost surreal. what other natural disaster can you sit and watch.....watch it coming to you?
maybe hear a volcano rumble....but ....these things are fascinating...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:18 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:
State of LA has gone to emergency already??
Remember Dennis? They had NO evac into MS, several days ahead, for goodness sake. Big headache for MS folks, who have very few evac routes, and whose roadways were also hit by AL evac traffic.
Because of the large population and limited roadway throughput, I believe the plan is for NO to evac 72hrs out; way before they know if they are going to take a direct hit.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:22 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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The declaration of emergency also stops some price gouging, but of course not all of it.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:23 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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just looked @ the long range loop out of the keys and it seems to be wobbling to the nw ... hope its not a trend ... for the panhandles sake =\ http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:24 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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can someone please show me where this ridge is and how big it is.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Blanco declares state of emergency
05:49 PM CDT on Friday, August 26, 2005
Associated Press
Louisiana kept a close watch on the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Gov. Kathleen Blanco declared a state of emergency, and a strengthening Hurricane Katrina moved further to the west. Blanco ordered the state's disaster preparedness offices to start taking precautions, saying Katrina posed an "imminent threat." Meanwhile, emergency preparedness officers in southern Louisiana were mobilizing on their own.
http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/WWL082605blanco.b15272b7.html
http://www.wwltv.com/
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:
just looked @ the long range loop out of the keys and it seems to be wobbling to the nw ... hope its not a trend ... for the panhandles sake =\ http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
Egads! Looks a little more NNW. Hope its just a wobble, although at this point, some unfortunate souls are going to get it anyway.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Loop the radar... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0R_lp.shtml
It's barely moving, but it's direction is not NNW, it is almost exactly west with maybe the smallest possible northern component... but, really, it's not doing much...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:31 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Looks like due west to me from the Key West radar. Earlier (4:30pm CT) I thought it has turned due north or maybe NNW but in the last hour it looks like due west.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:31 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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anyone heard any info out of the keys? .. they must have got @ least a foot of rain or more by now
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:32 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:
can someone please show me where this ridge is and how big it is.
This morning's maps. They will update soon. This is the 850mb-around 10,000 feet.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QUNA00latest.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/QHQA17latest.gif
200mb map-roughly 40950 feet.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:33 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:
anyone heard any info out of the keys? .. they must have got @ least a foot of rain or more by now
Here's the doppler rain total: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx.shtml
Not as good as a location report, but useful for seeing trends.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:33 PM |
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|
Weakness in the ridge around the SC GA border?
|
Looking at the imagry am I seeing some sort of weakness developing there in response to the approaching front?
and then, if it is there, would it be enough to pull the storm north and north east?
EDIT:
specificly I'm wondering if the ridge is splitting and pushing south into the western GOM and would block Katrina from heading west? I am probably reading things wrong, but I keep thinking that's what I"m starting to see.... any thoughts?
-Mark
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
|
Quote:
anyone heard any info out of the keys? .. they must have got @ least a foot of rain or more by now
TWC said 9 inches in Key West.... 4th highest rainfall total.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:36 PM |
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Re: Weakness in the ridge around the SC GA border?
|
Mark,
I don't see any weakness on the loop i'm viewing now (the WV one). So no, the non-existent weakness isn't enough to move it north and east.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:41 PM |
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Re: Weakness in the ridge around the SC GA border?
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Actually, looks to me like Katrina took a dive to the SW. Maybe she will meander there a bit. If she stays there long enuf, things may change regarding her future path.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:42 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Yeah, I keep looking at satellite instead of radar. I keep forgetting we are still within radar range.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
|
The problem with radar is that you only see two hours (or so) worth of images. That's hardly enough to denote a trend. Hurricanes wobble, and those wobbles can be shown more easily on radar.
Having said that... regarding the "weakness", Mark - I think you may be right. It looks like Katrina COULD slip in between the "western feeder" and the "eastern feeder" if you will (as seen on the water vaper loop)... and into the Greater New Orleans area. Not a good thing.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
|
Its still going due west... there is a convection free area north of the center which might create that illusion for some... but on this loop attm its due west... zoom in and just watch... this thing is heading for someone within the next three days...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 26 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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NHS still says its going WSW. I'm seeing that on the current radar, too - although this is the first time today I've seen any southward movement on the radar.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:01 AM |
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Movement
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Most of the NHC movements are based on an average over a period of time. Something like 3 to 6 hours.
That's what messed up the Charley landfall last year. The storm had turned to the NE, but the average had it still moving NNW. Or something like that.
Your eyes generally don't lie to you...unless you've been looking at CFHC for more than 12 hours!
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:03 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Last couple frames of the radar are a little more south than I'd like... but, we'd better enjoy this radar while it lasts.
A gradual turn to the west is expected on Saturday... I don't like the sound of that. The slower the turn, the more west the storm ends up.
(No implications regarding the speed of forward motion here... only direction.)
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Movement
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I've been looking at CFHC most of the last two days, so my eyes must be seeing things!
You've got a good point, though - NHC bases movement on longer-term trends generally. I do think N.O. could be in hot water with Katrina, though (pun intended).
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:06 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Yeah, if you track it over a period of time (I've been plotting it on graph paper) you'll see that its moving somewhat south of west - I don't know if I'd go so far as WSW, but that's more accurate than due west, so there you have it.
Big question is when does she start to turn. NHC says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:07 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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I disagree - or see it differently. The longer the storm sits there and doesn't go anywhere fast, the more likely a trough is to come along and zoom it NE, it would seem to me anyway.
Quote:
A gradual turn to the west is expected on Saturday... I don't like the sound of that. The slower the turn, the more west the storm ends up.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:
Big question is when does she start to turn. NHC says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:16 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
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Quote:Quote:
Big question is when does she start to turn. NHC says 24 hours on this track. If so, then I buy their latest guidance; it looks reasonable looking at the approaching trough, the surface low that's just off the tail of it, and the expected movement over the next 48-72 hours. If I see a north turn before then I will get a lot more concerned about the Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin area, although anything within 100nm east of the center is definitely NOT going to be good!
Yep, I agree - although, Pensacola/Ft. Walton/Destin is much more than 100 NM from N.O. last time I checked. It's a 4 hour drive, at any rate. People making comparisons to Frederick concern me - I remember Frederick (even though I was 7) - we got a LOT of rain here (Valparaiso, north of FWB).
I'm going off the NHC's guidance which puts the storm basically into Pascagoula - which nails Mobile, puts Pensacola under the gun (again) in terms of severe surge trouble and leaves Ft. Walton/Destin in a zone where they get significant surge trouble but probably avoid anything worse than sustained 50kt winds.
Of course if it goes further west then shift all that. Inland the rain problems will be ugly - we've had a lot of rain in this area this spring and summer, and as a result I'd expect quite a bit of inland flooding as the storm rains itself out.
| MissouriHurricane2008 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:17 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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SInce the NHC 8 PM update the track does seem more west ward then first predicted. If it continues even more west New Orleans is going to have major problems. The Panhandle does not need anymore hurricanes. We live have to see what mother nature has instore. Just be prepared.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:18 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
|
Quote:
I'm going off the NHC's guidance which puts the storm basically into Pascagoula - which nails Mobile, puts Pensacola under the gun (again) in terms of severe surge trouble and leaves Ft. Walton/Destin in a zone where they get significant surge trouble but probably avoid anything worse than sustained 50kt winds.
Of course if it goes further west then shift all that. Inland the rain problems will be ugly - we've had a lot of rain in this area this spring and summer, and as a result I'd expect quite a bit of inland flooding as the storm rains itself out.
That's assuming it ever moves anywhere. Right now it's just nudging AWAY from the U.S. (south). I'm still not convinced it's not going to pull an Opal, though.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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New BAMM model is showing even further west - beyond New Orleans. This thing COULD end up hitting Brownsville at this rate!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:28 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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actually a large majority of the models are now west of the 5PM NHC forecast track... look for another shift to the west... I would not be surprised if its as far west as the LA/MS line... 24 hours ago who would have thought this would occur... this may very well end up a NO problem... that's unbelievable... that would be really bad for the MS coast... this storm is not behaving like Dennis and Emily.... forecasters are earning their money for sure... wonder what Bob Breck (NO met) is say now after telling his viewers early in the weak that Katrina was going up the east coast, and would NOT get in the GOM and would NOT be a NO problem.... maybe it will just keep going west to TX..... who knows.....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The only thing that would shock me out of Katrina was if it went where the NHC said it was going to go when they said it was going to go there.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:38 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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nhc usually nails these things within 20 miles. This far out is not uncommon or unfair to make the changes. It's 24 hrs out that becomes bad to me, but that's rare for nhc
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:39 AM |
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Re: AL MS LA
|
Looks like convection has wrapped around the NW side. It may not look impressive, but due to the distance from the radar and the fact it has to penetrate the stronger eastern eyewall, the radar may not be doing it justice.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:40 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I think because the NHC did such a decent job with Dennis and Emily we sorta expected it for every storm.... well Katrina is proving we're not as smart as we think we might be.... there will be a lot of anxious people throughout the gulf coast states for the next two to three days....
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:43 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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when a storm is moving fast i think they get a better handle on it.And if they went with the gdfl from the start they would have had it pegged up to now.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Not to talk something completely unimportant to Katrina but I was watching TWC and I could have sworn if I could picture what FtLaudBob would look like and act like - his twin was on TWC tonight talking about how "awesome" the storm was.....I am not cracking a joke on you but, I had to chuckle and look up to see if there was a name under him - like Bob....:)
Hope everyone has a safe/dry evening!
Katie
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
|
I decided to look at old tracks to see if there was a historical precedent for Katrina... I only found nice colored maps on the NHC page for 1995 and after (and the Unysis maps were impossible to decipher), so that's what I used. Here's what I found regarding southern motion in the GOM (in case anyone cares... keep in mind I was just quickly looking at these plots, so I may have missed something):
2002-TS Edouard crossed FL at a higher lat than Katrina, but in the same WSW direction. It seemed to dissipate in the GOM... I wonder why? I'd say we can hope for the same with Katrina, but too late...
2002-TS Hanna went south on Sept. 12th
1999-TS Harvey went south before crossing FL in left to right on Sept. 20th
Where can I get readable graphics for years before 1995.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I think because the NHC did such a decent job with Dennis and Emily we sorta expected it for every storm.... well Katrina is proving we're not as smart as we think we might be.... there will be a lot of anxious people throughout the gulf coast states for the next two to three days....
Very true! We got spoiled, I think. I do remember numerous storms that the NHC and global models said would go to a specific location, but that the hurricane had its own idea.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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From Steve Gregory's Wunderblog...
Quote:
A high level, G-IV surveillance mission is planned for this evening, and it will do a major data sampling near and around the periphery of the storm to collect more accurate atmospheric data surrounding the storm that will be used to initialize tonight's 00Z run of the models. This normally results in an improved forecast in what is normally a data sparse region. This will be a major decision point for NHC s to how far west they may or may not adjust the forecast track for Katrina.
Steve Gregory Wunderblog
You all in AL. and points west hold onto your hats.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Dr. D,
Try the historical maps on Weather Undergound site. Scroll down the page to find the section on Atlantic Hurricane history. Site also has excellent tropical analysis by Jeff Masters and Steve Gregory, but skip the comments sections. More chat room, wishcasting and other clutter on the blog .
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Thanks... I thought I remembered them having historical, but I didn't scroll down enough.... I will amend my ramblings in a bit.
Ok, so, using wunderground... from 1994 and earlier (but I stopped in 1970)... Wow, not many in the recent history.. none from 85-94!
1985 Hurr. Bob went a little south in the GOM before crossing FL left to right.
1983 Hurr Barry... this is the best one... did almost exactly what Katrina did, but a little higher lat... ended up in Mexico.
1977 Hurr Babe... closer to LA, but also went south.. ended up in central LA.
1972 Unnamed ST Storm... went south across FL right to left and died in GOM
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
|
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 12:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Steve Gregory Wunderblog
You all in AL. and points west hold onto your hats.
Thanks - but are you implying that those of us in the Florida Panhandle are off the hook? I don't think it's safe to say that by ANY means!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:00 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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hats and other things as well for sure... just wondering to myself just how far this is going to go west... read on anther forum that Joe Bastardi was forecasting Cat 5 for NO.... can someone confirm that was indeed his forecast.... that's hard to believe ...
at 7:52 pm I have Katrina at ~24.7n 83.5w.... still looks wsw (per IR) or just south of due west (per radar)..
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
|
You might also want to try this page...
NOAA Historical Interactive Hurricane Track Page
You can plot historical storms within a certain distance of a certain lat/lon pair.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
|
Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I really don't think anyone is safe, way too much uncertainly with the forecast... guarantee the NHC is pulling out all the tricks to get the best forecast they can... so much is riding on this attm...
heck, I would be worring if I was in the Yucatan...
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:03 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I decided to look at old tracks to see if there was a historical precedent for Katrina... I only found nice colored maps on the NHC page for 1995 and after (and the Unysis maps were impossible to decipher), so that's what I used. Here's what I found regarding southern motion in the GOM (in case anyone cares... keep in mind I was just quickly looking at these plots, so I may have missed something):
2002-TS Edouard crossed FL at a higher lat than Katrina, but in the same WSW direction. It seemed to dissipate in the GOM... I wonder why? I'd say we can hope for the same with Katrina, but too late...
2002-TS Hanna went south on Sept. 12th
1999-TS Harvey went south before crossing FL in left to right on Sept. 20th
Where can I get readable graphics for years before 1995.
Edouard 2002
Hanna 2002
Harvey 1999
We have the overall tracks and U.S. close up zoom for all tracks since 1851. Working to release some of this content tonight or early tomorrow...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:03 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts, WWL-TV
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:05 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Eye is forming. You can see it here, on the infared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts? Whoops... sorry Jason, you beat me!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
Bite your tongue! *I* am midway between Pensacola and PC!!!
Having said that... you may very well be right. Looking at the sat. and wv loops it looks like that's a line just NW of Katrina - feeder band, or whatever... that has been growing steadily over the last several hours, in addition to the "trough" to the storm's west. the line north of the storm may get sucked in and cause a northward component? I dunno, but it seems feasible to my thinking.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
Call it a gut feeling or whatever. I don't think she gets west of Pensacola. I think she meanders enough before she starts north that the NE curve will catch her and put her between Pensacola and PC. Any mets care to weigh in. Jason?? Clark??
Bite your tongue! *I* am midway between Pensacola and PC!!!
Having said that... you may very well be right. Looking at the sat. and wv loops it looks like that's a line just NW of Katrina - feeder band, or whatever... that has been growing steadily over the last several hours, in addition to the "trough" to the storm's west. the line north of the storm may get sucked in and cause a northward component? I dunno, but it seems feasible to my thinking.
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
What is the name of the really old weather guy in N.O. that they always pull out of mothballs to forcast hurricanes? I can remember during Georges he nailed that forcast. I also remember that he refused to use anything but a drawing for his maps...damn, what is his name?
Nash Roberts. He's not really that old.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:13 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
Me too, as for getting their opinion. It's really anybody's guess right now. I would not be shocked if it hit Cuba - seriously. But it likely that it is boucing around, trying to find a weakness in the ridge, but being blocked.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I think people are focusing too much on every little whim and wobble. Just lean back from the screen and look at the overall motion of the system, it's STILL towards the WSW, ever so slightly. The motion is probably 265 or 270, and it's easily seen in the fact that the storm is still losing latitude. 5PM was at 24.8 and the 8PM put it at 24.7. I would love to see a northerly component to Katrina, but I don't see it yet. The more south and west it moves, the more under the gun we become here in New Orleans. Too many close calls here, I'm just hoping it's not our turn. It's amazing how many people here didn't even know there was a hurricane in the Gulf. It scares me to think that we might have to start an evacuation tomorrow that gives less than 36 hours before conditions begin to deteriate.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The old guy is Nash Roberts. He rightfully retired to peace and quiet after the passing of his wife. He was an icon albeit overrated at times.
Anyway, I just wanted to check in and clear a few things up. Don't track centers with long range radar. The apparent move "NNW" that was being debated on S2K and CFHC was only on the long range radar and apparently had something to do with the angle of the antenna. It was clear via recon vortex fixes and short range radar that Katrina was still moving south of due west. As of the 8pm advisory, she's further south still (yet I haven't checked the reported "dive" that some commented on).
Everything's cool here. I got my wife and kids a hotel in Jackson, MS for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Hopefully I'll be able to cancel that tomorrow if my dad is able to hook up with his older sister in Alexandria and head up there as well. I plan on staying (as usual). No telling what Katrina's going to do now that she's continuing to move slowly west of south. I agree with all previous posters that said anyone from Panama City to Brownsville need to still be on alert with a possible concentration of Morgan City, LA to Pensacola. I've got a 12 pack and a big ole bag of ice for the next couple of days. If things continue to look pessimistic (and I hear the early 00z guidance is even farther west), then I'll probably be heading to the store tomorrow for plenty more. I might grab me some Stoli's or something since Katrina is a Ruskie name and it would be apropos, but I don't like it that cheap most of the time.
Anyway, I'm just watching and waiting for the next set of models, views and such while chainsmoking.
One last thing as I mentioned elsewhere - if Bastardi and Stewart are correct, the Gulf Coast is facing its greatest threat since Camille. Think about that for a minute. JB thinks 910-920 isn't out of the question and that a true catastrophe is possible. Of course we all know Joe gets hyper over severe threats so hopefully he's overplaying it. But combined with Stewart's call for a potential 4 in the 5pm NHC Discussion, well we all need to stop and pause about that.
Steve
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:16 AM |
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starting to intensify again?
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Looks like the convection that wrapped around the NW quadrant has persisted and the western eyewall is looking better (worse). The center which had looked ragged, now looks to be more symetrical and tighter. It's hard to tell with only an hour's worth of shots, but it looks to be moving almost due west.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Another site with historical charts
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/
It does seem rare for a storm to move SW in the gulf.. here are a few others that have.
1941 storm 2
1947 storm 4
1983 Dean
just off the top of my head.... try isidore 2002 and anita 1977. both were quite strong. bess 1978 and brenda 1973 also. larry 2003. it happens, man. by the way, dean was off the mid atlantic. how'd that get on there? anyway, does this make anybody think i've studied historical tracks a bit too much? -HF
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:17 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well, finally got my power back since losing it around 4:30pm yesterday and was just catching up on all the posts that I missed. There was about 4 hours of strong winds here with a peak gust reported at Port Everglades (about a mile from my house) of 92MPH, which I believe was recorded on the back-side of the cane. A lot of people down here seemed to be caught off guard on the strength of the storm as it went through, especially Miami-Dade county, even though it was still just a Cat 1 storm. There's a lot of tree damage mostly, but I lost a lot of shingles also, and there's a few dangling traffic lights near my house.
The biggest problem down here is the 1 million people still with out power, and the lack of gasoline. The only station near my house that had gas had a line 15-20 cars deep. And all this from a Cat 1 storm, I really feel for the people on the Gulf coast that will feel the brunt of Katrina when she hits as a possible Cat 3 or maybe even Cat 4 .
Stay safe everyone!!
TG
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well, if what i was getting from Accuweather was the 0Z runs on the NHC suite, Katie bar the door! Looks like La is the target zone. If that is the case, better gas up the cars this weekend, becuase the oil speculators are going to freak out on Monday morning oil trading. Kind of scary. Almost reminds me of the docudrama "Oil Storm" that was on one of the cable channels earlier this year.
I just hope she does not turn into a monster. I know the Florida pnahandle does not need another hit. Niether does anyone else.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:21 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
My feelings have been blown out of the water today.
I have zero confidence in any model solution at this point...I am currently going old school and doing more diagnostic than model interp right now, trying to get a handle on these model vacillations. This is a TOUGH forecast. I am not ready to commit to anything more narrowed down thatn Apalachicola to Grand Isle at this point. Sorry...but this is a real problem to forecast.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:23 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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[quote
One last thing as I mentioned elsewhere - if Bastardi and Stewart are correct, the Gulf Coast is facing its greatest threat since Camille. Think about that for a minute. JB thinks 910-920 isn't out of the question and that a true catastrophe is possible. Of course we all know Joe gets hyper over severe threats so hopefully he's overplaying it. But combined with Stewart's call for a potential 4 in the 5pm NHC Discussion, well we all need to stop and pause about that.
Steve
Absolutely right, Steve. There appears to be no possibility (okay, ANYTHING is possible) that Katrina will weaken before landfall as Opal, Ivan, and Dennis did. Take into account the potential landfall location, and it could really be devastating. With it moving SO slowly... 910 may be very realistic, or even optimistic.
It's going to be a very long weekend for everyone along the Gulf Coast... watching and waiting.. and I have a bad feeling that Katrina may decide to change directions multiple times between now and eventual landfall.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well I can't remember a storm that moved west this slowly, this far before...the modelling can't possibly forcast something it hasn't seen before...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
My feelings have been blown out of the water today.
I have zero confidence in any model solution at this point...I am currently going old school and doing more diagnostic than model interp right now, trying to get a handle on these model vacillations. This is a TOUGH forecast. I am not ready to commit to anything more narrowed down thatn Apalachicola to Grand Isle at this point. Sorry...but this is a real problem to forecast.
Can we take it from that comment that you are ready to commit to narrowing it down to between Apalachicola and Grand Isle? That would be well east of the latest model guidance I believe. I doubt that you meant that, but just checking
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:28 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Understandable conumdrum, Jason. Has not been a well behaved storm by the models. Once it starts picking up forward speed, should have a better indication. However, the current situation is a hairpuller for EOC's. I would not be surprised if there has to be a mass evacuation call of a number of areas just to be safe since once katrina starts kicking it in gear, it may be too late tto make the call.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Can we take it from that comment that you are ready to commit to narrowing it down to between Apalachicola and Grand Isle? That would be well east of the latest model guidance I believe. I doubt that you meant that, but just checking
I meant to say Phoenix instead of Grand Isle...LOL
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:31 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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In my neverending quest for a historical precedent... I began to think Betsy was the perfect analogy, although the southern motion was on the east side of Florida. The storm still ended up in the vicinity of where it is now and well, we all know where it went.... However, Betsy turns out not to be the best match.... damn, TWC is talking about Betsy... my analogy was first.... Anyway, even better...
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at194704.asp
1947, unnamed, almost identical path. Not a good outcome.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
Can we take it from that comment that you are ready to commit to narrowing it down to between Apalachicola and Grand Isle? That would be well east of the latest model guidance I believe. I doubt that you meant that, but just checking
I meant to say Phoenix instead of Grand Isle...LOL
Uh... I'm ready to narrow it down better than that! I can say with 100% certainty that I believe Katrina will make landfall somewhere between Cosumel, MX, north and west to Brownville, TX, and north and east to Key West Florida. There, mark it down folks. That's where she's going! If she goes anywhere, I mean...
(be a little careful here - with a storm like this, comedy doesn't get too appreciated right now)
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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With all the models clustered basically in SE LA attm I don't know how the NHC can't move the forecast track in that general direction at 11pm.... and if there's consistancy with the runs over night (and that's a big IF) I think you will see one hell of an evacuation out of SE LA starting tomorrow morning... of course all this is subject to change and probably will but if it doesn't then NO might just be looking at that really big one
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:33 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I believe they will move the track more west again with the 11pm update.Many got this storm wrong but the models have done better then those who had it going up the west coast of florida today.At least the models comeback and try again
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:34 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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And I was so happy when the NHC pointed to Apalachicola right off the bat, since we all know the forecasts shift so much!
On St. George Island, we got swept over during Dennis....
The attachment is a photo of my "street"....
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:34 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The eye is starting to show up on IR. Go click the radar overlay and you can see the orange area within the red matches up with the eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
From that loop you can throw on the NHC track overlay, and it is clear that the system is now south of the projected path.
I'm watching the banding to the north starting to join up with the storm itself. It is starting to take on a very symetric appearence. This isn't good news since it means the system is becoming better defined and potentially more powerful.
--RC
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:34 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
1947, unnamed, almost identical path. Not a good outcome.
Sorry, but that path is in no way similar to Katrina's. The 1947 storm moved south to the east of Florida, not to the west. And, it was weaker.
1947 was a high end category 4 when it hit se florida. it was a cat 3 when it hit louisiana. there's a remote similarity, but '47 was trucking... katrina has been crawling. -HF
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:37 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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and if it goes even farther west the track would sorta be like Andrew, except of course Andrew was so much more powerful when going thru Fl... and perhaps Katrina might be more powerful than Andrew while pummeling LA.... (if it goes west of NO)
I wonder where in Lousiana is Phoenix is located???? west of Morgan City .... hehe.... thanks for narrowing it down so tight Jason... funny
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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You have to use your imagination when looking at historical plots. You'll never find an exact match...
I know where Phoenix, LA is.... My mom grew up there.... it is way the heck down the River in Plaquemin's Parish...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:40 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I wonder where in Lousiana is Phoenix is located???? west of Morgan City .... hehe.... thanks for narrowing it down so tight Jason... funny
Uh... the Phoenix that Jason is talking about is the one in Arizona, I'm pretty sure :P
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:41 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I can not think of a worse place for a possible monster like this to hit then one that would put NO in the NE eye wall. The only saving grace would be a quick forward speed might reduce the flooding from rain; but not sure the levy system would not get breached by surge through the delta.
The bad of a fat forward speed is the lack of chance to weaken prior to landfall. I know firsthand what Charley did to the interior of Florida thanks to his forward speed. I never expected to have a 115MPH storm pass over my house in the center of the state. I just hope she does not attain her potential. Would love to see an under acheiver.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I am still trying to figure out why the NHC didn't pick up on the SW track Katrina took after it made landfall. If you looked at Radar/Sat just after landfall, you could clearly see a SW movement. Several people on here verified it. Now this new track...well, i have no clue.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:43 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
1947, unnamed, almost identical path. Not a good outcome.
Sorry, but that path is in no way similar to Katrina's. The 1947 storm moved south to the east of Florida, not to the west. And, it was weaker.
Actually, Both Betsy and the 1947 storm has paths similar to Katrina's path. Dr. Dassau stated that Betsy had deflected south on the east side of FL. Whereas Katrina started her SW movement prior to landfall and is continuing that direction at this time.
Betsy and 1947 storm tracks would be comparable to Katrina's to this point.
| MissouriHurricane2008 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:44 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I am tired of people blaming the NHC for not know where Katrina is going. They are doing the best they can, but they are dealing with mother nature. We can't predict 100% sure where this monster is going we can guess 99% but mother nature is that other 1%. She can thow a punch that could devesate the Gulf Coast. We need to stop blaming and preparing.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:44 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
Oh, no! Not another Elena!!!!!!! Please no!!!
The more I look at that band that is running NW of the hurricane, though, the more I think a loop is possible.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:46 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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This is almost a reverse Andrew. Weak going through Florida, Going into La. A very dangerous storm. I have the same feeling about the 11pm update. They need to move this cone west.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
Nobody has thrown this out there yet so I will. What are the possibility of this making a loop out there with its slow movement? It has not behaved well so far, so a loop would just be classic.
Oh, no! Not another Elena!!!!!!! Please no!!!
The more I look at that band that is running NW of the hurricane, though, the more I think a loop is possible.
The band is classic of a hurricane even going up ther NW side so i really don't think that has anything to do with a loop since if you look at past storms they have the same type of bands that stray away from the center.
What is a blessing is its still 100 mph and has not blown up like many thought.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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When do you think we'll be seeing results from the 27/0000Z recon flight? I was thinking it is pretty close to Katrina by now?
I wondered if the flight was timed to have data coming in prior to the 11pm NHC advisory and discussion.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:52 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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[quote
The band is classic of a hurricane even going up ther NW side so i really don't think that has anything to do with a loop since if you look at past storms they have the same type of bands that stray away from the center.
What is a blessing is its still 100 mph and has not blown up like many thought.
Regarding the banding, true, but I don't remember seeing it quite like this before, but that may be just my memory.
Regarding the blessing - based upon the trend with IR and WV imagery, I would not be surprised in the intensity were increased to 105-110 MPH in the 10pm CT package.
| belleami |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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What is the possibility of its turning north much sooner than predicted? That's what I worry about.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:54 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
When do you think we'll be seeing results from the 27/0000Z recon flight? I was thinking it is pretty close to Katrina by now?
I wondered if the flight was timed to have data coming in prior to the 11pm NHC advisory and discussion.
It seems like they always get the info from the recon flights about 5-15 minutes AFTER they send out the advisory package. That is what happened at the 10am package, and they ended up issuing a special advisory package at 10:30am.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:54 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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wow just heard Steve Lyons say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:57 AM |
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Recon
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FLIGHT TWO
A. 27/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1212A KATRINA
C. 27/0300Z
D. 26.5N 82.4W
E. 27/0500Z TO 27/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
03Z for takeoff time. That's one hour from now.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
Hugh, I'm in Tallahassee, so I ain't wishcasting. I'd really like Jason or Clark to give their opinion on this.
My feelings have been blown out of the water today.
I have zero confidence in any model solution at this point...I am currently going old school and doing more diagnostic than model interp right now, trying to get a handle on these model vacillations. This is a TOUGH forecast. I am not ready to commit to anything more narrowed down thatn Apalachicola to Grand Isle at this point. Sorry...but this is a real problem to forecast.
Thank you for your honesty. This is a disturbing storm to say the least. Is there a possiblity that this storm stalls after going SW another 50-100 miles? If so, what are the implications for all of the GOM??? All of my friends in the Tampa Bay area are ignoring the storm, so I wonder if they have a clue as to just how unpredictable GOM storms are....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
wow just heard Steve Lyons (cone head) say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone?
If Lyons said Texas, I may move to Texas because it may be the only place safe from Katrina. LOL. Not really, but I don't have a high opinion of Lyons.
I agree with your best guess.
ETA: Looking at the IR imagery, the eye is going away again.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:yeah maybe it will go back down to cuba! then head over to mexico too! no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!
wow just heard Steve Lyons say the word Texas. I think the NW wobble is over looks as if its jogged sw again. Best guess would be W for the next 18-24 hours. If this is right La. might get the silver bullet they have been dodging for many years. Input anyone?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Actually, when I was looking at the latest IR pix, the idea of a loop ran through my mind. Just seems like the center is tucking down under to the south. Look at the overall presentation of the storm. It is moving SW. The convection up to the north of her is also part of a trough, not a band, although it will get sucked into her. I wouldn't want to be a forecaster on this one.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:00 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Quote:
FLIGHT TWO
A. 27/0600,1200Z
I saw that one, but there was a Flight One that was for 27/0000Z...oh, that's the special high-altitude flight. Gee I should read past the date and time huh.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:01 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well, the GOM's Nickname is "The Graveyard of Busted Forecasts"...
New 00z early model plots..
Model Plots
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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From the NHC conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Well, the GOM's Nickname is "The Graveyard of Busted Forecasts"...
New 00z early model plots..
Model Plots
I'd never heard that nickname before LOL
They better start the evac of LA.... before sunrise.
ETA regarding the shifting of the track: Not surprising. Not sure I trust it, though.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Don't like that at all.... The clustering thing is even more disturbing... Hhmm, ok Katrina, start making the turn.... or, go to Mexico!
Today in Key West is now the wettest day on record for them... So much for the "Dry" Tortugas... ok, bad joke, I know!....
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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#97 Published Friday August 26, 2005 at 8:15 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
At the 8:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 2 Katrina has a sustained wind of 100 mph, is at position 24.7 deg. N 83.3 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 28.50" and is currently on a WSW heading or 255 degrees at a speed of 8 mph. Katrina is currently not strengthening due to dry air entrainment into her NW quadrant but should begin later in the evening.
She has actually shifted a little further south of west during the past six hours. Going back to 1965 I must say that I cannot ever remember a tropical cyclone that has moved from NE to SW through this region. But I did mention the possibility back in advisory #93.
The WSW-SW heading of the past 24 hours has occurred due to the mid and upper level high pressure ridge along 32 deg. N and between 85-95 deg. west and the low and mid level inverted trough located east of the Bahama Islands. This high pressure system will weaken and shift westward in response to a strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough currently located over the northern Great Plains.
CAT 2 Katrina will eventually turn W-NW during the next 24 hours but the northerly turn could be 48-72 hours away and exact timing depends on how quickly the mid level trough digs SE'ward towards the NW Gulf Of Mexico. Right now it's still anyone's guess and as usual the models continue pretty useless, with a continued landfall spread between Morgan City, LA in the west and Apalachicola, FL in the east but the clustering of the models has moved westward to Mississippi from the western Florida Panhandle.
I too am shifting my landfall window westward, to between Mobile, AL and Pensacola, FL, from my earlier Pensacola, FL to Panama City, FL window, not because of the models shift but due to Katrina's continued WSW heading. I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model. If this WSW track trend continues then the Apalachicola, FL to Panama City, FL region will probably dodge a big bullet.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current prior to making landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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"no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!"
I would sure like to hear reasoning for this in light of the westward shift of the models and the persistent South-of-West motion
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:10 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
From the NHC conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.
NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
(my supposition....TX is now in play)
MORE.....
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:11 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Nevermind... that wasn't the NHC forecast... Sorry.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
"no Im pretty sure this one will head nw then east. Im gonna stick with the fl landfall!"
I would sure like to hear reasoning for this in light of the westward shift of the models and the persistent South-of-West motion
My reasoning for thinking this may (not will, but MAY) happen: the trough to the west and north of the storm. Eventually Katrina will cease the westward motion when it runs into the trough that is evident to the west on WV imagery. This will cause it to jet to the NNW. There it will hit another area that I can barely make out on WV imagery, and slide NE against this second area. End result would be scraping the extreme SE Louisiana delta, and making final landfall between Mobile and Pensacola, from the southwest, ala Opal.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Intersting no support for GFDL. Seems to have been one of the closet models to the idea of what happened with Katrina over Florida.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:15 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
Well, the dry air infusion this afternoon helped slow development, but I still don't see any reason to rule out Cat 4. At this point it still hasn't moved outside the bounds of the intensity models that I saw a few hours back.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:18 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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not forcast to become a 3 or 4 until tomorrow and sunday anyway
it isnt missing anything yet
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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>>72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
Jason, that's a hair North east of me. My house is about 29.9/89.9. It would either imply a NW heading at landfall or a hit somewhere in the Slidell, Pearl River, Waveland, Henderson Point, Bay St. Louis areas, wouldn't it? (just going off of memory since I didn't check any of their actual cordinates).
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
From the NHC conference call....
SHIFTING THE TRACK WEST AT 11PM...
More when I get it....
GFS is 30 m too low....NAM has better inits...
HPC is going with the NAM forecast....
No support for the GFDL and it's north turn...
Forecast points...
HPC
12 hr 24.7 86.6
24 hr 24.9 86.3
36 hr 25.4 87.4
48 hr 26.1 90.
72 hr 28.7 92.5
96 hr 31.6 93
120 hr 34.9 92.
NHC
12 hr 24.6 84. 6
24 hr 25.0 86.0 115g140kt
36 hr 26.0 87.5 115g140
48 hr 27.0 89.0 115g140
72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
(my supposition....TX is now in play)
MORE.....
89.5, that's 30 miles west of my house..... Bay St. Louis Waveland area..... now what does that scenario of a forecast track remind you of... I dare not say it.... the "C" word.... I'm hoping for more west trends or east trends, hell south and north trends would be good to...... and hopefully some big ones as well... now is NOT the time for the models to start clustering and consistent from run to run... and when do they really do that 72 hours out... OK, I'm not worried any more...
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Ralph, the predictions were not for it to be a strong 4/5 already. Katrina has already overshot the intensity estimates from last night. Give it time... the intensity is more likely than not going to go way up.
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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All I know is that this afternoon when my unit released us at 1430, using the early afternoon information, to expect to go back to work on Tuesday. Wednesday if Tyndall ordered an evac. Personally I would rather go back to work on Monday..:)
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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My bad, I'm at:
Latitude 29.976
Longitude -90.146
Waveland is about 30.15/89.22
Steve
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
What are you talking about? This is probably going to be a very dangerous situation in the following days. The official forecast has a solid category four making landfall along the gulf coast. The cyclone remained consolidated throughout it’s duration over the peninsula, and there is really no reason for it not to deepen. Which it is... despite this omnipotent "dry air". As was pointed out earlier... it has infact overshot most of the sound early intensity estimates.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well that's really good news (the HPC points)...south of Lake Charles LA is just about the only place on the N Gulf Coast where the coastline is sparsely populated.
However the NHC lat/lon is identical to the path of (sorry, Frank P) Camille - Waveland, MS.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
>>72 hr on coast 30.5 89.5 (Biloxi ish) 115g140
Jason, that's a hair North east of me. My house is about 29.9/89.9. It would either imply a NW heading at landfall or a hit somewhere in the Slidell, Pearl River, Waveland, Henderson Point, Bay St. Louis areas, wouldn't it? (just going off of memory since I didn't check any of their actual cordinates).
Steve
At first blush, it looks like Diamondhead to me...I'll need to wait on actually plottable on my stuff when the adv comes out...
| DougBaker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I found this site a few months ago. Thanks to all for the great information.
I am in Fort Collins, Co. so my only direct connection to hurricanes is that Dr. Grey works at nearby Colorado State Univeristy. I know his group makes a forcast for the number of storms each season.
Anyway, here is my question.
How likely will Katrina disrupt oil production in the GOM? I know the forcast is changing and no knows were the storm will go.
It seems this is one storm that could affect everyone in the United States not just the unlucky ones along the coast.
Doug Baker
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I am sure the people south of Lake Charles LA do not think so..
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:24 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Ralph, the predictions were not for it to be a strong 4/5 already. Katrina has already overshot the intensity estimates from last night. Give it time... the intensity is more likely than not going to go way up.
Im taking about the predictions of the people on here not the ones who know what they are talking about.Yesterday people were talking strong 4 easy and a cat 3 when it got to the gulf.
So i was referring to the people on here who also said it was going to go upthe west coast but all those guys are not around now.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Im at 89... 89.5 is the MS/LA line.... I could live with that even with a Cat 4..
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Im glad we have not seen any sign of this coming into a strong cat 4 storm or a 5 like many thought it would be already.
Many were thinking as soon as it hit the GOM it would be a 3 but thank you for the dry air.
What are you talking about? This is probably going to be a very dangerous situation in the following days. The official forecast has a solid category four making landfall along the gulf coast. The cyclone remained consolidated throughout it’s duration over the peninsula, and there is really no reason for it not to deepen. Which it is. As was pointed out earlier... it is infact overshooting most of the sound early intensity estimates.
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:28 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I found this site a few months ago. Thanks to all for the great information.
I am in Fort Collins, Co. so my only direct connection to hurricanes is that Dr. Grey works at nearby Colorado State Univeristy. I know his group makes a forcast for the number of storms each season.
Anyway, here is my question.
How likely will Katrina disrupt oil production in the GOM? I know the forcast is changing and no knows were the storm will go.
It seems this is one storm that could affect everyone in the United States not just the unlucky ones along the coast.
Doug Baker
Per CNN & Fox News the rigs began evacuating this afternoon. But that was before the shift west. They could clear out all of the LA coastal rigs tommorrow if the forecast path remains consistent tommorrow.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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well ralph if i am not mistaken that is 115 kts which equates to around 130-133 mph which if i am not mistaken IS 4
| kim_in_pensacola |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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My girlfriend's husband is a helicopter pilot for the rigs. They are definitely moving out.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Diamondhead is north of BSL..... 89.36
sorry typo
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
115 KNOTS is Cat 4...that is the NHC forecast....
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Doug,
I don't know if you can trade futures on a Saturday or not (maybe overseas), and I'm not even sure how all that works. But with current thinking, the daily record run up in oil prices ain't stopped yet. But if investors were giddy today, they're going to be going insane tomorrow unless a shift in the models and NHC edges back toward Alabama. The refineries and production could be hampered beyond belief with an LA or TX (first time I've said that word) offshore threat. I don't know where it's going, but I can promise you that investors will be even more skiddish tomorrow.
PS Send me a 5% cut.
Steve
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
That was 115 knots, Not MPH. 114-135 knots is Cat 4.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Doug,
I don't know if you can trade futures on a Saturday or not (maybe overseas), and I'm not even sure how all that works. But with current thinking, the daily record run up in oil prices ain't stopped yet. But if investors were giddy today, they're going to be going insane tomorrow unless a shift in the models and NHC edges back toward Alabama. The refineries and production could be hampered beyond belief with an LA or TX (first time I've said that word) offshore threat. I don't know where it's going, but I can promise you that investors will be even more skiddish tomorrow.
PS Send me a 5% cut.
Steve
If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:32 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I am still not trusting the models. Don't think it will get that far west. Hugh's ideas are close to my thinking.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
115 KNOTS is Cat 4...that is the NHC forecast....
thats fine but on there forcast map they have a red dot right at landfall and red dot is a 3...http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512.html
Im going by what they posted.But this time last night people were calling for it to be a 4 already which at least right now its not near that.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I'm all gassed up, sure wish I had a hybrid... this thing hits coastal LA as a 4 and 3.00 gas might be a bargain.... you'll think 2.50 would be like giving it away.... I sure hope this scenario does not come to fruition....
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Just heard on TWC possible cat.3 overnight. Guess we will have to wait and see
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
No kidding. Been telling everyone I know to fill up on the cheap gas this weekend. You can imagine the funny looks I am getting when i call it cheap.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
If this forecast verifies, get ready for 3 dollar plus gas next week...
After Dennis, there was basically NO gas... at ANY price, in the Niceville/Valparaiso area where I am. If the forecast verifies, I suspect it may be a long time before there is gas again, too.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
thats fine but on there forcast map they have a red dot right at landfall and red dot is a 3...http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512.html
that's the 8PM advisory (5PM update) and Weather Underground's dot is wrong.
should be Cat 4.
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Tell me about it. I had to fill up at Tyndall during my lunch hour after Dennis.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:39 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I'm all gassed up, sure wish I had a hybrid... this thing hits coastal LA as a 4 and 3.00 gas might be a bargain.... you'll think 2.50 would be like giving it away.... I sure hope this scenario does not come to fruition....
If gas hits $3 then I think that I may be forced to get a hybrid. Going down in the morning and boarding up beach house in Gulf Shores. I have a bad feeling about this one. Then again female storms don't hit Mobile
| DougBaker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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5% cut?
I am just a poor consumer worried about how to fill the tank now. It is scary how dependent we all are on a small area. If it gets hit, we all get hit in the pocketbook.
Anyway. I have always enjoyed looking at the maps, plots, etc knowing they would not be at my house. We have strong winds here in the thin air, but never full of rain and debris.
Of course we can get a blizzard in the winter, thats fun, but not nearly as damaging.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Gas just started to level off here in florida at 2.58 sure dont need to see 3$ here but if this goes there well better go find a 200 gallon tank
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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im sure hes around but why do you need him?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:42 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
Good question...where are any of the mods?
------
That Weather Underground map is 3 hours old which makes it before the latest early model runs came out. The track doesn't match the model runs anymore, nor does it match what wxman007 said the NHC told him during a phone conference. Further, I don't recall anyone saying that the system would hit Cat 4 shortly after it reached the gulf. GFDL last night was indicating a Cat 2, and that's what it did. It then showed slow strengthening for the next day before reaching strong Cat 3 or Cat 4. Frankly, the GFDL seems to be the closest in intensity and not too bad for track so far...the rest of the models are even worse!
Ralph, I'd suggest you read more about what people are talking about rather than just stick your head in the sand and say "this is what it is." We aren't experts, but we aren't idiots either. If you're going to say something, make sure what you're saying is accurate. NHC 5pm said 115 KT - that is Cat 4. You can't argue it isn't! It's a definition!
--RC
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I'll admit, I was scared enough to go out and get gas. It was $2.47, which compared to what it will be next week is a steal.... I'm still thinking the XTRP model is the best scenario... No idea what's controlling it, but I certainly prefer its track.
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Down here in FWB its 2.55. Dont know how long it will last. At 530 this morning I saw someone filling up gas cans already.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
As said they had the wrong dot on Weather underground so yes they have it as a borderline 4 which i hope they are wrong but i was going by what was posted not what im thinking
So agreed they have it as a min cat 4 storm stand corrected.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Have not been on for a while; trying to keep up. According to our local stations, the storm will be out of our radar soon..if not already. I know that this is effecting a lot of people and I am praying for all of you that are in and OUT of the cone.
It's not funny, but my kids said tonight, "Mommy, I hope all of your friends will be okay. We will pray for them tonight."
I think that says it all.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:thats for sure! I didnt realize how badly these monsters can affect the whole country!
Gas just started to level off here in florida at 2.58 sure dont need to see 3$ here but if this goes there well better go find a 200 gallon tank
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:45 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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well thanks to rc i dont think we need li phil now lol
and lmao at the xtrap
wish it were true
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:46 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Still have 30 gallons of gas that was left over from Charley last year. Had 50. Been using fuel stabilizer. So it should be good another couple of months. Been using for the lawnmower this summer. May dump a can into the car if there is a huge temporary spike. Just want to have a reserve in case another storm cuts power for a week here so I can run the generator.
I still find the difference of opinion between HPC and NHC interesting. Is that big of a difference common?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I'll admit, I was scared enough to go out and get gas. It was $2.47, which compared to what it will be next week is a steal.... I'm still thinking the XTRP model is the best scenario... No idea what's controlling it, but I certainly prefer its track.
I think you know this already, but in case someone else doesn't, XTRP is simple extrapolation of the current motion and speed...it's NOT a model.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:47 AM |
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Kat 4 *DELETED*
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Post deleted by lunkerhunter
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Kat 4
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11 PM EDT position...24.6 N... 83.6 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105
mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
are you reading what the NHC is putting out as at landfall? 115 that is not a strong 4 nor a solid 4 or even a 4 that is what is coming out at 11pm
Where is LI Phil when you really need him?
Good question...where are any of the mods?
------
That Weather Underground map is 3 hours old which makes it before the latest early model runs came out. The track doesn't match the model runs anymore, nor does it match what wxman007 said the NHC told him during a phone conference. Further, I don't recall anyone saying that the system would hit Cat 4 shortly after it reached the gulf. GFDL last night was indicating a Cat 2, and that's what it did. It then showed slow strengthening for the next day before reaching strong Cat 3 or Cat 4. Frankly, the GFDL seems to be the closest in intensity and not too bad for track so far...the rest of the models are even worse!
Ralph, I'd suggest you read more about what people are talking about rather than just stick your head in the sand and say "this is what it is." We aren't experts, but we aren't idiots either. If you're going to say something, make sure what you're saying is accurate. NHC 5pm said 115 KT - that is Cat 4. You can't argue it isn't! It's a definition!
--RC
And you think telling me i got my head in the sand is not against the board rules? all i said is what i seen on Weather underground and i stand corrected not arguing the point but at least when i correct people i dont degrade them and tell them to get there head out of the sand.
Enough already...drop this now or I start dropping folks...I don't want to use my mod powers!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Kat 4
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Landfall forecast is now the mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River, from what I can tell. Big change from 12 hours ago. Winds up to 105mph.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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All... The NHC issued an intermediate Public Advisory at 8pm, but no Discussion. All of the maps from NHC to weather uderground, to the ones we use here are created using the plots included in the Discussions.
I'm sure the maps at your favorite site(s) will be updated shortly.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Kat 4
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GFDL brings it to 124kts and 922 mb at landfall...the FSU SENS is even stronger at 131kts at landfall (Cat 5)
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Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:52 AM |
Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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You folks are drifting away from topic - lets refocus on the storm. A forecast of 115 knots would indeed be a category IV. Remember that on this site if you are critical of someone else's forecast - I expect to see you post your rationale - and follow that up with your own forecast and the reasons for it. If its just a gut hunch (and I have those too from time to time) put your post in the Forecast Forum, but don't put it here. Don't be critical of other posters simply because you don't care for what they say. That doesn't hack it here. Weather Forecasting is a long way from being a full-up science, so lets put an end to the Monday Morning quarterbacking.
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:53 AM |
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Update
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HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF
A PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN
CUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS
BAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY
VISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB
AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN KATRINA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB
ANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT
LEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.
IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH
OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS
KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124
KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE
BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: Update
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FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: Update
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As promised...
Katrina
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: Update
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can always hope it never turns
that would be better.If it shifts as much tomorrow as it has today it will be a texas or mexico thing (and the weather underground is still wrong showing a red dot)it's had that bug since it's inception. -HF
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 02:57 AM |
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Re: Update
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Could this this actually get up between 122 and 131 knots like some experts are saying..... this thing is a monster!!
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:00 AM |
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Re: Update
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Just heard that the track will be shifted left according to the NHC once the latest data is put in can anyone confirm this?
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:00 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
[I think you know this already, but in case someone else doesn't, XTRP is simple extrapolation of the current motion and speed...it's NOT a model.
I can hope, can't I.... unfortunately, I am aware of that, but I really like the idea and was hoping that we could wishcast it that way. The current NHC scenario is not favorable for me, and I'm a little concerned. This is especially true when reading comments like this from the discussion:
KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM
LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE.... KATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST... and my personal favorite: THIS CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
When you live in southern Louisiana, you just don't want to see these things....
I knew YOU did, but our more casual readers might not know that...just wanted to clarify...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Don't be critical of other posters simply because you don't care for what they say. That doesn't hack it here. Weather Forecasting is a long way from being a full-up science, so lets put an end to the Monday Morning quarterbacking.
ED
Yeah, sorry I snapped at Ralph. A couple things he said just ticked me off.
------
Anyway, looking at the tracks and intensity I'm not liking Katrina one bit.
NHC intensity chart {source}
Code:
INITIAL 27/0300Z 24.6N 83.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 24.6N 84.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 25.0N 86.0W 115 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 27.0N 89.0W 115 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 30.5N 89.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 35.0N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/0000Z 40.5N 81.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous, especially considering the intensity forcasting problems when storms get that strong. Once they hit Cat 4, forcast intensities often don't predict intensification or weakening very well. The storm intensity becomes driven more by eyewall cycles than any real direct change in strength.
--RC
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Update
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THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
This is setting up to be another worse case scenario for the MS gulf coast.... if all this comes to fruition expect the total destruction of every casino on the MS coast, imagine the economic impact to MS..... I'm hoping for a continue more trend to the west... need another 50 miles west
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:04 AM |
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Re: Update
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(off topic material removed)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:04 AM |
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Re: Update
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I apologize for not putting links on the above posts.
I was trying to edit them for the bad news and get them out fast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Meanwhile ED has to step in and help with the 'name' calling and flaming. I'm glad he stepped in because there is too much going on for that.
I don't want to put people on probation...but I will.
Already have 1 tonight.
Read the posting rules...before you send your post.
Remember Phil's rule if your topic ain't Tropic, your post is toast.
If you can't say something nice about someone ( including NHC and NWS), then don't say anything at all.
Thank You now back to our regular, nerve wracking programming.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:05 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
As promised...
Katrina
Well there is is...deja vu 1969.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:05 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
This is setting up to be another worse case scenario for the MS gulf coast.... if all this comes to fruition expect the total destruction of every casino on the MS coast, imagine the economic impact to MS..... I'm hoping for a continue more trend to the west... need another 50 miles west
Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
50 miles further west would bring the inner core over new orleans. that's not a very positive thing either. -HF
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: Update
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How much father west do we need for it to miss going to LA i sure dont want to see gas going over 3$ a gallon here in florida i have a budget now.
As of right now there are only a few that take it west of LA
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: Update
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OK, I am officially worried now. I am with Terra, I don't like to see things like 30.5 89.5, 135MPH, increasing confidence, etc.
The hotels are already booked, and we will not even have the minimum 50 hours needed to evacuate the area, much less the needed 72. I mean they just put that new track on TV here in New Orleans and I could feel the thud come down over the city. The newscaster (Mike Hoss) said it right when he said DRAMATIC CHANGES in the last 12 hours.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:08 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous
Why does the NHC do this....keep it as a Cat 4 but hint at the two models pointing to a 5? Instead of erring on the conservative side for loss of life, just come out and predict a Cat 5 to get everyone and their brother out of LA/MS/AL. If it hits as a 3 or 4 then everyone's happy anyway.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:11 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
115 held for 48 hours? That looks dangerous
Why does the NHC do this....keep it as a Cat 4 but hint at the two models pointing to a 5? Instead of erring on the conservative side for loss of life, just come out and predict a Cat 5 to get everyone and their brother out of LA/MS/AL. If it hits as a 3 or 4 then everyone's happy anyway.
It's call mass PANIC. If a Cat 5 is predicted to hit Greater New Orleans without sufficient time to evacuate the people, mass hysteria is likely to result. As it is, mass hysteria is only a 75-95% probability.
For what it is worth, I still don't have much faith in the forecast.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:11 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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most likely 1 word (panic) cat 4 or 5 people are going to go esp when they say maybe a 5.
I know if it were here and they said 4 or 5 it would not matter i would be gone.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:12 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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open up the floodgates, the coast will drive north in record numbers this weekend. Jim Cantore is in the air tonight headed for biloxi, guarantee it.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:13 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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how far inland does a 5 do damage?
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Maybe here is why ... Camille
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
[Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
There is now way on Earth that ALL of the Casinos could be moved into Back Bay at Biloxi before Monday Morning. That plan was good when it was designed, in part by the late Wade Guice. There are too many Casinos in place. Not enough room for all of them.
A CAT 4 going ashore west of Gulfport would probably wipe out 50 % of them. I may be a little low on that estimate.
FrankP, you look at them every day. What's your take on moving them all?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:15 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
In Louisiana? It would likely wipe out much of the coast of Arkansas.
Before someone points out that Arkansas is not ON the coast, that's my point: it probably would be after the storm went through.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:16 AM |
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Quote:
they just put that new track on TV here in New Orleans and I could feel the thud come down over the city. The newscaster (Mike Hoss) said it right when he said DRAMATIC CHANGES in the last 12 hours.
I don't follow that one. The official NHC track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:16 AM |
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Re: Update
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Looks like this one is looking a lot worse than Dennis was when it was in the Gulf.
| satellite steve |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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NHC is not in the business of scare tactics. they call 'em as they see 'em. As we are all aware they are well informed with access to the most current data and model runs. Nevertheless, we see time and again that intensity estimates are difficult. with this one now the change in track and general conditions in the gulf all predict intensification. so folks, it's gonna be a major hurricane -- and we wait and watch
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: Update
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hugh,
that's priceless. so in jxn, ms?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:19 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:Quote:
[Hate to burst your bubble, but the casinos are required to be built to withstand Cat 4 winds. Any that can't have to be moved into the interior bay (Back Bay). They will suffer serious damage, as will every structure likely, but they will not be totally destroyed.
There is now way on Earth that ALL of the Casinos could be moved into Back Bay at Biloxi before Monday Morning. That plan was good when it was designed, in part by the late Wade Guice. There are too many Casinos in place. Not enough room for all of them.
A CAT 4 going ashore west of Gulfport would probably wipe out 50 % of them. I may be a little low on that estimate.
FrankP, you look at them every day. What's your take on moving them all?
Only two or three of them would need to be moved. The Grands, Beau, Isle and Magic are built to withstand a Cat 4-5 storm in place, I read once. They are actually designed to withstand up to 180 mph gusts I think. Now, the smaller casinos like the former President... well, it was moving to Waveland in October - they will just have to rebuild it from scratch instead of what they had planned. Treasure Bay was damaged by every recent storm, though - it would be a goner for sure.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:20 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
hugh,
that's priceless. so in jxn, ms?
If a storm was still Cat 5 there... I would be very afraid!!!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:20 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
I don't follow that one. The official NHC track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
Yeah, the eye misses NO, but the storm surge and strongest winds don't. NOs sits below sealevel. The dikes can't hold back the kind of surge and storm driven waves they are talking about. I believe when they were talking about Ivan last year, the worst path for a storm to take, pertaining to NOs, was just to its east.
--RC
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:21 AM |
Re: Update
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looks like we'll find out if those test and "made to sustain" hold up. I seriously doubt a strong 4 or 5 would leave a casion floating south of monroe.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:23 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far. However flooding can be more of an issue, as the storm surge combined with waves on the east of the eye can drive water quite a ways.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
| kissy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: Update
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I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:25 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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With Andrew, the zone of maxinum devistation was caused by massed imbedded tornados on the eyewall. That was the area of total destruction, but you don't even see that in all Category 5 systems.
--RC
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:26 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
It was originally predicted to happen about six hours ago, or so. Now, it might NEVER happen.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:26 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Well acoring the local TV here in Tampa they are going to report on the storm every 30 mins starting at 5am and that is here in Tampa so theyb are taking it serious here and we are not in the cone.Guess its saturday and they are doing it for ratings but still they are doing it.
(off topic material removed)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
I'm so confused and my brain is so overloaded from all the info I've recieved here! Hubby works at one of the casinos so we're a bit afraid of him being out of work!
When SHOULD that turn more north happen (or is it a turn west?)
Well, the system is predicted to slowly arc north, as seen in Skeetobite's maps (link below). Exactly when it happens is part of what we've been debating for the last 6 hours or so, and I don't have any useful answer to give you.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:29 AM |
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Quote:Quote:
I don't follow that one. The official NHC track spares NO; it goes to the right of the city. Now if it had the path going just to the left of Lake Ponchatrain, then I could understand why there would be a lot of concern.
Yeah, the eye misses NO, but the storm surge and strongest winds don't. NOs sits below sealevel. The dikes can't hold back the kind of surge and storm driven waves they are talking about. I believe when they were talking about Ivan last year, the worst path for a storm to take, pertaining to NOs, was just to its east.
--RC
Can you give some more information on that? The strong winds would be offshore, and the storm surge mainly to the east of the eye, in MS. The main source of any rising water in the NO area would be the low barometric pressure, not a storm surge as such. Note: the strongest winds are always to the east of the eye, and with the current predicted landfall would all occur in MS, not LA - except for the very outlying delta areas in the Gulf well to the SE of New Orleans.
| kim_in_pensacola |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: Update
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I'm originally from NO and now live in Pensacola. If a storm hits to the east of NO and the wind is pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain the water will just pile up and spill over into the city. New Orleans has always feared a storm approaching from that direction.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:33 AM |
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Re: Update
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I've just gone browsing the Satellite IR images again...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
That trough to the north sure looks like it has become a feeder band. The eye is clearly visible. And the track is still west southwest.
If I were to guess I'd say with that trough being absorbed as a feeder band will make the system more symetric, and thus more powerful. You can already see the banding on the northside stretching out to the trough and the trouch arcing south into the hurricane. A symetric system has a better chance at strengthening.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:34 AM |
Re: Update
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Are the models fairly close in agreement now? (Talking about Path, not intensity) Katrina is turning out to be very spunky. Was interesting in the NHC report to have it called stubborn...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:35 AM |
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Quote:
I'm originally from NO and now live in Pensacola. If a storm hits to the east of NO and the wind is pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain the water will just pile up and spill over into the city. New Orleans has always feared a storm approaching from that direction.
Alright I have to go look at mapquest.
Where would the water come from that would be pushed into a lake? Remember a lake just has its own water, there is no other water that would get in there.
If I understand the gist of what you're saying, Lake Ponchatrain is to the N of the city and you believe simply the force of the wind would drive the water from the lake S into the city, over the dikes?
Edit - OK, NO is sandwiched between the river on the S and the lake on the N, and looking at the map you can see that a strong hurricane passing to the west of the city would undoubtably cause more damage from rising water, because of the water being pushed up from the onshore winds, than a hurricane passing to the east of the city, which by contrast only pulls the water away. The only risk with the latter would be wind-driven waves cresting over the levees from the lake, and I seriously doubt that the levees would be compromised by such a scenario.
Besides, the predicted landfall is so far to the east that it is clear that the NO area would not get any of the high winds associated with the small area around the eye, if landfall would follow the forecast path.
I still hold by my original conclusion that for NO to go into a panic over this predicted path is really doing a disservice to the people in MS who really would need to evacuate and would need those freeways and hotels, etc, that would be taken by those needlessly evacuating the NO area.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:36 AM |
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Re: Update
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Looks like you are seeing that western movement in the last few clips rather than the S SW movement as well.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: Update
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| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
That trough to the north sure looks like it has become a feeder band. The eye is clearly visible. And the track is still west southwest.
If I were to guess I'd say with that trough being absorbed as a feeder band will make the system more symetric, and thus more powerful. You can already see the banding on the northside stretching out to the trough and the trouch arcing south into the hurricane. A symetric system has a better chance at strengthening.
I agree. It's all up to the high pressure now. I would not be surprised if I wake up (about to head to bed now!) to find that Katrina is in the upper ranges of Cat 3 and further WSW of where it now is. Could this thing enter the Yucatan Channel from the NORTH??? Looks like that is where it is headed. Is there a strong trough coming along that could dig down and lift it north now? The existing troughs don't appear to be strong enough.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Update
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The truth is is that nobody knows where this hurricane is going. Anybody living on The Gulf needs to monitor this storm very closely. You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Matt
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
Can you give some more information on that? The strong winds would be offshore, and the storm surge mainly to the east of the eye, in MS. The main source of any rising water in the NO area would be the low barometric pressure, not a storm surge as such. Note: the strongest winds are always to the east of the eye, and with the current predicted landfall would all occur in MS, not LA - except for the very outlying delta areas in the Gulf well to the SE of New Orleans.
I'm reading through news articles from last year and not seeing where I saw that about NOs. As I remember: The storm surge, the result of the low pressure, in a large enough storm extends far enough away from the eye that a near miss can still cause a dangerous surge level. With a strong hurricane, winds from the north east through southeast (those that would happen throughout the north quadrant of the storm) would back water up the bay north of NOs, increasing the Louisiana/Mississippi coast. This is why a near miss is almost more deadly in the way of a storm surge for NOs then a direct hit. The extra threat with a direct hit is, of course, the eye wall.
P.S. - Don't quote me! I'm not an expert on this
P.P.S. - I'm also not that familiar with land features in that area. I'd have to pull out my Geology text to get details
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
I wouldn't generalize that much. Charley was a Cat 4 that had a 5+ mile wide swath that was devasting from Punta Gorda to almost Orlando. Every storm is different. Size, speed, land topography etc.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Update
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Finally I believe you will see the storm going west now, and then begin it's turn...
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: Update
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Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: Update
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For an explanation of why people are so concerned about New Orleans and the "slosh" factor, see Washing Away
In other news, Nightline is doing a piece tonight about Katrina ... and New Orleans.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
The truth is is that nobody knows where this hurricane is going. Anybody living on The Gulf needs to monitor this storm very closely. You hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Matt
Is it just me or is this thing SHRINKING??? Looking at the water vaper and IR loops it definately looks like a tighter circulation at the end of the loop than at the beginning. Very very BAD!!! Small storms = strong storms!!!
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: Update
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Lake Ponchitrain is open to the Gulf on the east and a storm with an easterly fetch will push water into the lake with no place to go except over the levies into NO
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:43 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
If I understand the gist of what you're saying, Lake Ponchatrain is to the N of the city and you believe simply the force of the wind would drive the water from the lake S into the city, over the dikes?
That would be just one of many scenarios that could cause breaches in the flood control system in NO. It is not designed to handle a storm like this. Heck, it can't handle a lot of rainfall as it is. Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:46 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
Is it just me or is this thing SHRINKING??? Looking at the water vaper and IR loops it definately looks like a tighter circulation at the end of the loop than at the beginning. Very very BAD!!! Small storms = strong storms!!!
Not entirely true. However, shrinking storms = strong storms.
You can have a large strong storm, but it takes more time to develop.
And yes, Katrina shrinking is not good news. I'm seeing that too. The central circulation is tightening up around the eye, which is becoming better and better defined on IR.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: Update
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Hugh, I really doubt that they will or even can move the Casinos as they are sitting in the mud on in the MS sound.... most are designed to be frangible, the walls just tear out but the super structure remains intact so it can be rebuilt... ALL would suffer tremendous damage from the surge.... Georges put Grand and a few others in Biloxi out of business for weeks... this is NOT a Georges for us...
The Beaux is well built I admit... and would probably survive... perhaps I was a little hast to say all would be destroyed, but all would be out of commission for a very long time, however long it would take to totally rebuild them from the remaining structure... some may not rebuilt... I was here for Camille... you probably couldn't even get to a Casino for some time...hell who would want to... no power for weeks or months... Hey if were talking a strong Cat 4 or 5 this is going to devistate the Casino Industry for a long time, along with coast intrastruct as well... Camille destroyed the south bound lane on HWY 90 in many sections, I saw it first hand, I am a Cat 5 survivor... you just can't imagine
Will they all be destroyed no, you are right... but they might as well be...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:49 AM |
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New Orleans SLOSH Model
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http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.edu/CSPHIH%20main%20website.htm
http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.ed...y%20Floodtf.htm
http://www.pubs.asce.org/ceonline/ceonline03/0603feat.html
http://www.nd.edu/%7Eadcirc/ivan.htm
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
Also, don't concentrate on the line. On that path NO is well within the major danger zone. With a forecast like that, I would suspect that NO has no choice but a massive evacuation.
Exactly!
Remember that the line is the "central forcast track" from the NHC. Take their 1-2-3 model. Landfall near NO is predicted at 72 hours. Based on the 1-2-3 model, there might be error of up to 300 nautical miles. That is one h*** of a big distance when it comes to pinpointing landfall.
I'm not saying that there is that big an error, but even a hundred mile error could make all the difference for a state along the gulf coast. Look at how much the NHC forcast track has moved in just the past day.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
how far inland does a 5 do damage?
The Cat 5 winds? Not very far.
The winds weaken rapidly upon landfall.
The thing that is very different about a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane is the extremely small area that is prone to almost complete devastation. Even with a Cat 2 direct hit there can be flooding that requires total evacuation, but with a Cat 4 or 5 there is an area that you come home to...nothing. Now 10 or 15 miles down the road, or 3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation.
I wouldn't generalize that much. Charley was a Cat 4 that had a 5+ mile wide swath that was devasting from Punta Gorda to almost Orlando. Every storm is different. Size, speed, land topography etc.
I'm sorry; I should have been more specific - by total devastation I meant that none of the buildings are left standing.
I didn't follow hurricane Charley so can you tell me how far inland from the shoreline that occured.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:51 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:
Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
This one may push me to render a manual map for landfall. Let's see when it's 24hrs away.
I'll probably annotate one of our new maps. I was becoming concerned by using the Microsoft Street maps considering we just signed our second deal with McGraw Hill in a week to license some of our maps for publication. Under the Microsoft MapPoint license agreement, we can only publish 1,000 maps at any given time and we cannot market their maps with our overlays.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I don't know what to make of this Hurricane and I don't think the NHC does either. If it's going to find a weakness and move North it seems to me the NHC's track has it going WNW for too long. I don't know what to make of it and it's stressing me out just thinking about it. I think I need to go to bed..... Everyone in the cone of uncertainty should be ready. I expect the unexpected.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:56 AM |
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Re: Update
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OK, very good points.
I think the real underlying issue here is that there is such a large population on the N Gulf Coast, so few escape routes with such a small throughput, and so few places to stay within any reasonable driving distance, that there really is no practical evacuation plan that actually has a chance of working. This is especially true of the MS Gulf Coast, which is hemmed inbetween LA and AL, and because of the early NO evac, has no resources or places left for its residents to evacuate to. Another problem is that by the time LA and AL residents have all fled to central MS because that is where they have been directed to evacuate, there is no gas left to fill the cars of those going N from the MS coast, who have empty tanks from hours of bumper-to-bumper traffic.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:57 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Margie,
Charley 2004 was a Cat 4 at landfall. It traveled northeast across florida and was still a Cat 1 hurricane when it went back over water. This storm traveled approximately 165 miles over land. The devestation in Lake Wales was incredible. Lake Wales is exactly 72 miles from Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.
Charley 2004
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 03:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The word on New Orleans is this:
We lose the equivalent of about a football field every day in Louisiana. Most of the "land" south of the city is just canals, lakes, and wetlands. There are some spots where communities exist, but mostly it's just wet. Lake Borgne is connected directly to both Lake Pontchartrain near the Rigolets and the Gulf of Mexico. The theory on the doomsday scenario is a storm moving up from the ESE heading WNW and passing south of the City. This piles the water up to the coast, pushes it through Lake Borgne and into Lake Pontchartrain. The north winds from the eye to our south pushes water to the Southshore of Lake Pontchartrain. Water then breaches over and through the levees. Much of our city is 5' below sea level and lower. Most estimates are that a Cat 5 puts between 20-25' (3 stories ish) into a great part of the Southshore (area roughly south of Lake Pontchartrain and roughly north of the Mississippi River). This is New Orleans, Kenner, Metairie and smaller communities. My property is exactly sea level. My house is roughly 3' raised. That means I'd have to swim up to one of my pecan trees or maybe on top of the either of the doctor's 2-story houses that sit across the street and next door to me.
Steve
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:00 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I didn't follow hurricane Charley so can you tell me how far inland from the shoreline that occured.
Margie, Orlando, where I lived at the time is roughly 120 miles inland from Charley's point of landfall. There was heavy, heavy damage in about an ten-fifteen mile wide swath from 441 (Orange Blossom Trail) to a mile or so east of the 417 Expressway (Greeneway). Many people don't realize the extent to which Orlando was hammered. I speak from firsthand knowledge, my own home and church suffered a ton of damage. When I speak to friends from out of state about the experiences of Orlando with Charley, it is often the first they hear of it. For some reason the level of damage inland from Charley (let's say Arcadia through Daytona) does not seem to have gotten the coverage in the national media.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: Update
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Quote:Quote:
Skeeto,
Not gonna add the coordinants and wind speeds anymore?
that was your trademark!
This one may push me to render a manual map for landfall. Let's see when it's 24hrs away.
I'll probably annotate one of our new maps. I was becoming concerned by using the Microsoft Street maps considering we just signed our second deal with McGraw Hill in a week to license some of our maps for publication. Under the Microsoft MapPoint license agreement, we can only publish 1,000 maps at any given time and we cannot market their maps with our overlays.
understood.
gotta pay the bills!
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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If any of you have not yet seen the 0z GFS, it is predicting the strongest hurricane I have ever seen the GFS predict over New Orleans at noon on Monday. It has Katrina a smidgeon farther east and even stronger than it predicted at 18z.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:08 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I can add that Charley was still Cat 3 when it went over my house just SW of Kissimmee. Wind gust disabled my anemometer at 80 MPH and blew away a shed in my back yard that had strap down rated for 115MPH. Shed was also full of lawn equipment in side when it took the whole thing and wegded it between mine and a neighbors house.
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:08 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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can you send a link please...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:09 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
If any of you have not yet seen the 0z GFS, it is predicting the strongest hurricane I have ever seen the GFS predict over New Orleans at noon on Monday. It has Katrina a smidgeon farther east and even stronger than it predicted at 18z.
Got a source? FSU TCGenisis and CyclonePhase are still stuck on the 12Z GFS.
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:12 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
How likely will Katrina disrupt oil production in the GOM?
For some really strange reason, the gnomes of Wall Street seem to have decided this afternoon that the oil industry was safe. I'm thinking they could wake up Monday morning to a very different calculus and spike oil prices considerably. Certainly, I think the terminals and on-shore facilities in south Louisiana are at risk and, if it goes west a bit more, the huge refinery infrastructure between Houston and the LA state line could be as well.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:15 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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The fact that it still is moving WSW and the 3-day track has it initialized as due W makes me think the shifting is not over...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/205300.shtml?3day
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Meteorological conditions are not favorable for sleeping...
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:16 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Random, go to the NCEP Central Operations Page (google for that) and run it.
Steve
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:17 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Looks to me like its taken a little jog to the north...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:18 AM |
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Conditions
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Quote:
Meteorological conditions are not favorable for sleeping...
We better get some sleep for the next 2 nights. Sunday Night and Monday Night might be busy.~danielw
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:18 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I'm now seeing a westward movement in the last few frames of the water vapor image. Pay attention to the orange eye rather than the overall circulation:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
-----
I think I'll sleep now. Hard to do that with such an impressive storm out there!
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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If you look at the link, you'll see a little movement north of west...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I still see it WSW.......dont see the north jog. Then again I'm not a pro...:)
I saw one jog to the west....then it went back south of west. Then again I have been up since 430 and its 1130 now...must be tired.....lol
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:21 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Watch the eyewall move.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:22 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Random, go to the NCEP Central Operations Page (google for that) and run it.
Steve
Didn't think to check NCEP Central Ops Page - I've got that bookmarked. I thought there was an animation somewhere.
Yes, impressive GFS. Showing pressure down to 976mb just before landfall. That's impressive for a global model considering it's too course to make out the central core of a hurricane!
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Watch the eyewall move.
I did and if anything it went a little south.Maybe you are not looking at the whole just a part of the eye opening and looking to you that way but in the last hour run its went 0 north from what i see.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:26 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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For motion, it's decidedly WSW. jschlitz pays for GR Level 3 Radar and has set up plot points on screen shots of radar images. Click on the image of his 11:26 post (as time shows on my pc) and then click the image again. Quite impressive job he's doing there.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71236&start=180
Steve
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:30 AM |
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Recon
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When is recon supposed to be back in?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:31 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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actually there's a 972mb
| CategoryFive |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:33 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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I am just north of Grand Isle, LA and getting nervous......
| Cash |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:36 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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It needs to be repeated: hurricanes wobble in their path. No single frame to frame movement can be extrapolated into a definite larger-scale direction or direction change.
And in this case, I see no evidence of even a wobble. Look at radar images. Focus on the center of the circulation in WV and IR loops. There is no indication that I can see of even a wobble north.
And lastly, fretting over each of these frame-to-frame wobbles (real or perceived) is the path to madness, or at least a lot of silliness. This is going to be a major storm and everyone here will be obsessing to the degree expected, so that's all the more reason for posters to exercise restraint.
Don't mean to lecture.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:42 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
Margie,
Charley 2004 was a Cat 4 at landfall. It traveled northeast across florida and was still a Cat 1 hurricane when it went back over water. This storm traveled approximately 165 miles over land. The devestation in Lake Wales was incredible. Lake Wales is exactly 72 miles from Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda.
I just did some online research on Charley and actually this does prove my point that Cat 4 / Cat 5 level winds are not sustained very far inland.
First from the NHC documentation of Charley they specify that the high Cat 4 winds were only within a 6 nautical mile radius of the eye at landfall.
Secondly from an online map and writeup documenting the damage from Charley, it was shown to be a Cat 4 for only the first 5 miles inland; by the time it had crossed the peninsula and the Myakka River, and was approaching Port Charlotte, its windfield was already down to a Cat 3. However Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda were right on the bay and within the narrow radius of the highest winds at the time, so they suffered Cat 3 level damage.
To quote from one of the online documents, "The RMS reconnaissance team surveying the landfall area confirmed the highest levels of damage from just south of Fort Myers northward to Port Charlotte. Offshore barrier islands ... took the brunt of the storm’s wind and surge." This refers to a 30-mile strip of coastal areas which took the onshore winds east or south of the eye, and does not mention any inland areas. It also indicates that windfields weakened even after only passing barrier islands, before hitting the mainland.
This is totally consistent with the windfields of Camille and Andrew, which also diminished rapidly from Cat 5 strength after very few miles inland.
So I still feel I make a good case and that it is fair to say that Cat 4 / Cat 5 level damage, which is generally complete devastation due not only to high winds, but also in no small part to storm surge and the force of wind-driven waves, is generally limited to a very small diameter area that does not extend very many miles inland.
So, to tie this to Katrina, if it does reach Cat 4 or Cat 5 intensity, the area of almost total devastation that would occur from that level of damage, if it did hit a populated shoreline, would most likely be a very small area that does not extend for very many miles inland, as was the case with Camille, Andrew, and Charley.
The point I was trying to make in the original post, was to answer the specific question of how far inland someone would have to worry about that frightening level of damage. The answer is, not very far inland, so don't worry about, as Hugh put it, the coast of Arkansas. In other words, let's minimize the panic factor.
However damage at a lower threshold can and does occur and varies with each storm.
If the original question was simply to ask, how far inland is there damage if you start with a Cat 5, then I totally misunderstood the question.
With Camille, there was huge damage in W VA from rains and flooding, long after the windfield was gone.
Edit - went back and looked, and actually I think I did misunderstand what they were asking.
So probably nobody cares just how long a Cat 4 stays a Cat 4.
Hey you can delete this post if you like!
| KimmieL |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:47 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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What are the chances that Katrina does not make that northwestern turn and heads for Texas? This uncertainty is enough to drive you crazy! Dave S on TWC just said that Baton Rouge could be in the thick of things on Monday. No wishcasting. Getting prepared for all the New Orleanians passing through town tomorrow. Last time, I-10 was literally a parking lot. We are preparing, and will probably sleep with one eye open fixed on flhurricane.com!
Kimmie
Betsy in '65
Andrew in '92
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:49 AM |
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Read The Site Rules Before Posting
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A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room and that one-line posts are discouraged. Also, do some homework before you ask a question. The answers to some of the questions being asked are readily available at the NHC site - there is even a link at the bottom left to the NHC. The Rules for the site are available in the banner at the top of the page - read them! Here is an excerpt:
Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is informative, or interesting or adds to thoughtful discussion on any level? If is a reply, does it offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.
Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "Thanks!" "Great Post" "Cool!", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. We appreciate the thanks, but otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum. Main page articles are usually focused on one particular topic, the other forums are open to use as well and are moderated less strictly.
Deparment of Redundancy Department: If a poster continually makes the same post, or nearly the same post repeatedly on the same point, it will likely be put in the graveyard and the poster be put on timed poster probation.
Respect the Mods: The moderators are here to keep the forum function of the site safe, sane, and secure. Please do not harass or intentionally annoy the mods. If they ask you to do something, please do it. If you do not like the mods or the moderation here, then feel free to not post here. If you have an issue with a mod, email cfhc@flhurricane.com or pm an Administrator
Harass and Sass: If somebody is harassing you on the forums then discuss it with them over PM or email before contacting a mod about it. Someone who simply disagrees with you does not constitute harassment. Please do not post others' personal information (phone number, addresses, emails, etc.). Try to stay out of other peoples' personal lives as well. Keep in mind there's a good distinction between the Internet and real life.
The site is going to get rather busy for the next 4 or 5 days. You can help with the bandwidth issue (and help to keep the site from crashing) by reducing the number of un-necessary one liners.
Thanks,
ED
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:52 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Yes, the total destruction zone will probably not extend more then 10-15 miles max in a cat5. Land features will also affect this. I suspect some of the bayous will all for the longer run versus the shorter becuase of less land mass friction. However, it does take almost perfect conditions to maintain a 4 or 5. Cat 3 can be maintained for a much longer distance. While not as catastrophic by a exponential scale, I can assure you that a cat 3 can cause major damage. Have a couple of condemned house in my neighborhood still from one.
EDIT: Posted before I saw margie's edit that covered this. Can be deleted.
| gman |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:54 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Will be interesting to see how Katrina ultimately plots relative to Betsy (1965). Though Betsy started much further southeast, the tracks are similar now: blocked while heading northward off east Florida , turns to southwest (though Betsy made a small loop), crosses Everglades and, eventually, makes landfall just west of New Orleans. Betsy link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Betsy-track.gif
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:55 AM |
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Re: Read The Site Rules Before Posting
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If I might add. You can help limit some of space, by Not using " QUOTES" on every post.
Edit the quotes. You don't have to include the whole post of the person you are quoting. Just the part that you are refering to .
One more request. If you mention a model or a source of information. Just put a link (short link) to the site so that others can read the info as well.
Thanks.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:57 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Margie,
With all due respect to your research and your opinion, I think we've boiled this down to issues of communication and semantics, not science.
The original question was "how far inland does a 5 do damage?"
Answer is, it could easily be several hundred miles.
But not as a 5 of course.
I took issue with your statement that with a Cat 4 or 5 that "3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation".
I guess it depends on your definitions of complete devastation versus no devastation.
Charley taught many Floridians what a Cat 4 can do 25, 50, even 100+ miles inland.
Many of those impacted would call it devastation. I sure would.
Sleep well!
Chris
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 04:59 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Steve thanks for that info on the worst case hit for NO.
So if the track were to move maybe 50mi west of where it is currently predicted, certainly not out of the question, that could come pretty close to the worst case scenario.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:03 AM |
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Recon up! and on the way
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URNT11 KNHC 270453
97779 04364 70285 88100 70000 32010 6484/ /5765
RMK AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 01
Recon up and on the way to katrina.....what will she hold....will know in an hour or so!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:04 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Quote:
I think we've boiled this down to issues of communication and semantics, not science. I took issue with your statement that with a Cat 4 or 5 that "3 or 4 miles inland -- no devastation".
Agreed...I should have explained better (or read the original post with half a brain). I think I've been here too long today and I really ran that one into the ground!
Getting back on track, just looked at the wv loop, and it is amazing how far SW she continues to track - the center may even be S of Key West now. And I also can't wait to hear what the recon finds, as the sat signature is very impressive. On Key West long-range loop the storm has finally gained much more symmetry even if it doesn't appear from radar that strong convective bands totally surround the eye (could this be a function of the distance from the radar?) In fact on both radar and satellite it now has that compacted buzzsaw or donut-shaped signature indicative of strong storms.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:11 AM |
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are the Models out to lunch?
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Hey everyone,
I hesitate to say this, but thinking it through, I'm starting to think the models are out to lunch on this storm, particularly this model run. Unless some sort of stronger steering current arrives, I suspect the storm is going to continue it's wsw motion for at least another 12 hours or so.
Why is that important? because it will give the storm more time to recurve to the east when it is finally picked up. Watching radar, the storm is still (to quote the discussion) heading wsw and at a fast enough clip to be obvious on the radar (yes, I know you can't alway trust radar to show a storms motion, but on this one I feel pretty confident of the motions). None of the models are picking up that wsw motion currently.
So, what does that mean? Well, I expect the model runs to either start trending back with a harder turn to the NE, or strangely enough, to trend way west and not really recurve at all. At this point, I really don't think the mets were joking about anywhere from phoenix, AZ to Naples could be hit by this storm.
(I mention the WSW motion because none of the models progged a motion this far south. (even UKMET had a turn north of where the storm is now) And as was also pointed out by Clark, small changes now reflect large changes later in a storm track. So I won't quite say the current model runs are useless, but I'm tending to think along those lines)
-Mark
| 00cj |
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| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:21 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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cajun cooking for the models ?...bloodstar i think that , that is a very good possibiliy. The way i see it the longer and slower she moves wsw then her turn to the north will be more extreme..and then maybe even Ne...if that trough does pick it up which all the models have it doing eventually....also agree that it could just keep going further west....seems like a tuff one to predict for all the mets out there....good luck to all
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:22 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Maybe it is just me and I am tired. I was looking at a two hour long range radar loop out of Key West on a pay site. It sure seems like forward motion has slowed. Maybe it just seems like that to me since the resolution is not as good on the long range. Anyone else seeing this?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:38 AM |
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distractions
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there was some talk of it this morning, but when the major hurricane progs started and shifted along the central gulf coast, it hasn't been mentioned since.. but there has to have been some kind of rainfall over western cuba. that large band of deep convection south of the core of katrina has been laid across the eastern parts of the island all day and all evening. cuba has never been under any watches or warnings, but thus far they've probably had the worst of katrina in terms of flooding.
i'm still headscratching on the forecast track. earlier i went well east of my initial ideas.. then the forecast track started swinging west and is further west than anywhere i've ever had it. the best case scenario for what should be a very powerful hurricane would be the central or western part of louisiana.. lots of swampland and not too many people living inland either. either side of that are long stretches of coastline with more vulnerable population centers and more infrastructure to wreck.
97L the nhc has given up on. the center is still trying to break the shear zone, only now the upper flow in the central atlantic is reorganizing and there is a good upper westerly flow just about everywhere. might finally kill the thing. there goes another 'could-have-been' system.
90L to its southeast is under an east-west oriented upper ridge. should stay under it for the next few and slowly develop. globals aren't overly enthusiastic over it, but most keep it discernable and out of trouble. will see. the consensus is showing some activity with the next wave as well.
in the long range.. as katrina is going out a good trough should settle into the east. have to watch the western atlantic caribbean for a pattern-pulse response as it lifts out in early september. or for whatever might get by it.
HF 0538z27august
i'm just gonna set my landfall point back at the ms/al border for monday, late morning. strong category 3. might cut my losses. -HF
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 05:55 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Quote:
I was looking at a two hour long range radar loop out of Key West on a pay site. It sure seems like forward motion has slowed. Anyone else seeing this?
No, in fact it seems to be cruising now although it was nearly stationary for a short time earlier this evening.
It is wobbling and so I think it is intensifying. On the 2:45Z, 3:15Z, and 3:45Z it jumped WNW and then an equally big jog almost due S. It is looking even better on sat now around the eye. I can't wait to see the recon results and the 2am update (which should be real soon).
2am update showed incremental increase in intensity which I am assuming is extrapolated until the recon (which if very different could result in a special update?) - pressure drop 2 more mb to 963mb, windspeed increase 5 more mph to 110mph.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:04 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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2am is out 15a
Quote:
Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.4 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...west-southwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...110
mph. Minimum central pressure... 963 mb.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Just heard on TWC it has been reported Kat is now down to 950 mb according to data just recieved
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danielw
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| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:19 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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URNT12 KNHC 270612
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:53:30Z
B. 24 deg 23 min N
083 deg 59 min W
C. 700 mb 2673 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 048 deg 091 kt
G. 325 deg 009 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 14 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3040 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNW
M. E06/20/15
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NW QUAD 05:50:50 Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C, 325 / 9NM
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
| Bloodstar |
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| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:20 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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vortex message Duplication removed
So yep, down to 950
that's a pretty big drop, Cat 3 by 5am?
I'm really at a loss for words at this point
so I'm going to simply watch and I don't know
just see if I notice anything...
-mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:26 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Sorry for the one line post, but that pretty much sums up the general consensus of a lot of meteorologists at this point. Intensity isn't as surprising as the track and continued motion, though. Best bet? Sleep on it overnight and hope the morning brings a fresh perspective on the storm....I know that's what I'm going to do.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:27 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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From what they've just posted ... the pressure's a Cat 3... and it's only 1 mph (according to the 15a) away from Cat 3 sustained winds of 111 ... (I'm looking at the Saffir-Simpson Scale
So... Cat 3 by 3 am seems to be possible...
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danielw
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| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:28 AM |
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Recon
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Sorry about the duplication.
Recon transmitted this report at 27/05:53:30Z
at the location of the center.
At 05:55:30Z I'm seeing a flight level wind of 104 kts.
That would be the SE Eyewall area. (from the flight direction NW to SE).
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:29 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Im posting this late as I have to get up early. Anyways this is very brief....Katrina should be at least 135mph by morning. I expected originally for this to happen saturday night but she is 1 day ahead of schedule due to her getting onshore florida much earlier.
Anyways she has gone more sw then the models showed as I predicted earlier today and last night. Now thing is I said she will eventually turn NNW tomorrow with a bend to the NE later Saturday night into Sunday. You know that was speculation and against the models. I do see how she can still do this. Only way she can is for her to slow down due to a weak trough that slid into the NE gulf right now. Might push her more ssw for few hours. Infact last hour she wobbled that way. I would think for her to come back to Florida she will have to be pushed more Sw and slow down near 85-86w then make the move N today. This will give time for the strong high to weaken and have the trough entering the ohio valley to dig down into the SE US this weekend.
If this doesnt happen then I expect she will be on the western edge of the model consensus and go towards TX or just into Mexico by midweek.
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danielw
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| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:31 AM |
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New Thread
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Ed has posted a New Thread...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 06:35 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Isn't that just amazing? I thought it looked like it was really deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.
OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? It seems likely. And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 08:35 AM |
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Re: are the Models out to lunch?
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Quote:
Isn't that just amazing? I thought it looked like it was really deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.
OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? It seems likely. And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.
Well... I was right ti appears. I woke up and Katrina is basically still going ... NOWHERE fast!
Anyway if the pressure is down to 950 I suspect winds will be at least 120 at the 4pm CST advs.
EDIT!!! Pressure is down to 945!!!
EDIT: Just refresh the WV loop. It's DEFINATELY got a Cat 3 signature on that loop. Looks to me like the southward component has disappeared overnight even though the NHC does not say it has as of 2am CT.
EDIT: 5am ET Advisory! Katrina upgraded to Cat 3 with 115 mph winds, now moving DUE WEST at 6mph. Landfall forecast: Direct hit on New Orleans pretty much - officially just west of the mouth of the Mississippi River, crossing Ponchatrain(sp?) with 120 knot (138 MPH) winds. Doomsday scenario coming together for the Greater N.O. area. Have they started evac yet?
Of note in my opinion: the forecast and model runs change significantly from 10am yesterday to 4pm and then again from 4pm to 10pm last night, Central Time. Overnight it appears that the models changed very little, and the official forecast at 4am CT is quite similar to the forecast at 10pm, in actuality. Frightening if you live near N.O.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 27 2005 10:37 AM |
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Re: Katrina's Forecast Track Shifts West, Northern Gulf Needs to Watch
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Thanks! That was driving me crazy! If good old Nash Roberts is still around I bet the'll have him on the air again