Administrator

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Sep 04 2005 01:32 PM

Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

4PM 5-Sep-2005 Update
Were watching the tropical wave in the Bahamas called 94L for potential development because of its proximity to land.

However, Tropical Depression #14 may form from another tropical wave in the atlantic within the hour.

Original Update
Earlier this morning Maria reached Cat I status - the fifth hurricane of the season. Maria is in the central Atlantic moving north at 15mph. She is expected to continue on a northerly course - and eventually northeast - and should pose no threat to land.

NHC is now monitoring a new area of interest (Invest 93L) to the east of the central Bahamas - see the Storm Forum for initial info on this disturbed area. A weak surface low was located near 26.5N 66.5W at 04/12Z with convection primarily south of the low. The low was drifting slowly to the north and slow development of this system is possible. Models generally take the system north and then northeast .

A weak surface low is centered in the northern Bahamas near 26N 78W at 04/12Z. This system is currently poorly organized, however, the UK Met model does develop this area into a tropical cyclone and take it to the north - very slowly. Other model solutions show a wide range of expected tracks. Too early to say whether this area will develop or not, but it is certainly an area to monitor.

Invest 92L was showing new signs of increased convection near 10N 52W at 04/12Z. The system is moving west northwest into an area that is more favorable for development and this could become a Tropical Depression in the next day or two. Models intensify this system and move it into the central Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic by mid-week - worth keeping a close eye on this one.
ED

Event Related Links
Bahamas Weather/Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne

Maria

Animated model plots of Maria

Invests 93L, and 94L

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 04 2005 01:50 PM

Closest to home

I will be watching the low near 26N 78W as this is only about 125 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale this morning. It will be something to watch over the next 2 days. We have had plenty of rain and thunder all night long, this is a bit unusual to occur throughout the entire night. It is one ugly looking morning outside too. I will be watching the radar below all day. A year ago tonight we were dealing with Hurricane Frances.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 04 2005 03:10 PM

Re: Closest to home

That doesn't look to have much rotation with it..... but there is a hint of it on the radar. Not a lot, but a hint....

If that was to wrap up and crank it could get interesting over the next couple of days. This we certainly do not need - Katrina came out of this same general area......

I'm also paying close attention to 92L.....

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 04 2005 03:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Hi,
wow, this does look like a Katrina wannabe!

I have been looking at this area for a few days i believe and wondering could this spin out into something for south florida and if it did it wouldnt give us much lead time to prepare? Scary , what would the landfall time on this one be if it were to form? This is different then 93l correct? I try to make sense of all the data

and then theres Maria hoping she makes her turn soon!!

thanks
jusforsean

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 04 2005 03:44 PM

spin starting??

Is it me,or is something starting to spin near 23n 68w????????Look at the last 2 frames. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 04 2005 04:19 PM

Re: spin starting??

I believe that is what NRL classified as 93L. The NHC mentions this feature in the 5am TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 04 2005 06:39 PM

Re: spin starting??

Quote:

I believe that is what NRL classified as 93L. The NHC mentions this feature in the 5am TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND
THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

i agrree with the last part of the advisory, i think we'll have a TD soon..also, as for 92L(the thing down east of the lesser antilles doesnt have much spin, or convection as it should, but also could develope, where it will go is unknown. I hope the gulf gets a break for a little while. I hope everyone gets a break in this really busy season. Also, NYPD transported cops, relief workers, and a big big number of MTA busses to Louisiana..nice job NYC!...lol

Good Luck, and keep in your mindss that my birthday is at 12:15 AM tomorrow...lol jk

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Sep 04 2005 07:45 PM

Re: spin starting??

I know this may be a little premature, but, doesn't this appear to have some degree of rotation to it already?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 04 2005 07:57 PM

Re: spin starting??

Yes, the MLB long range shows a center of rotation just north of Grand Bahama. You can also see this on visible. TWC just said a low level circulation has formed and this may be our next depression.

(British Meteorologist)

Sun Sep 04 2005 09:09 PM

Re: spin starting??

hey guys,
just been looking at that area just north of Grand Bahama, and it certainly seems to be cranking up. Banding features are becomming evident in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with possible a strong band taking shape in the southeast quadrant. Models have been hinting at development in this area so it certainly needs watching, especially given its proximity to the coast. Think this could be our next classified system, but it might be a race between this and 93L to the NE of the T&C Islands. 93L has some good convective structure and a developing comma shape cloud signature, so it too could become a classified system soon too!

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 04 2005 09:59 PM

Re: spin starting??

Navy just posted a new Invest - 94L. Unfortunately they still haven't fixed the bug with their new storm pages, so both 93 and 94L don't show anything useful... You can click on the visible link and get the visible sat image, so I can confirm this is the system over the Bahamas.

--RC

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:15 AM

Re: spin starting??

New GFDL model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.

No model runs on 94L it seems. NHC 5pm TWO mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.

--RC

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:32 AM

"Anular" Hurricane

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:32 AM

Re: spin starting??

Invest 94L

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:35 AM

Re: spin starting??

Quote:

New GFDL model out on 93L. It keeps it out at sea (though with a dangerous looking westward hook toward Virginia/Maryland/Deleware that later recurves to the north) and brings it up to 100kts in 72 hours.

No model runs on 94L it seems. NHC 5pm TWO mentioned it could develop into a TD within a couple days.

--RC

weak systems and models don't mix, its a wait and see for the next 24h at least

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:46 AM

Re: "Anular" Hurricane

Quote:

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.

I recall this same image from a storm last year. I believe we saw a clip from IVAN-2005 on MSNBC (Isaw it too and thought it was from last year).

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:00 AM

Re: spin starting??

Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in Katrina aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:05 AM

Re: "Anular" Hurricane

Quote:

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.

No clue what MSNBC is using, but...

That effect was very visible on Katrina - supersized image that you can see it on:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.250m.jpg

Some other sat images you could see it even better on, but unfortunately I don't have an easy reference archive of those.

--RC

Dial up users beware - this file is over 8Mb download --Skeetobite

Thx Skeetobite for pointing that out. Here's a smaller one (~1MB): http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005240-0828/Katrina.A2005240.1700.1km.jpg
You can still see the eye formation on it, though it's no where near as fun as the huge image

--RC

(User)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:06 AM

Re: spin starting??

If anyone cares, the eye MSNBC is using is unmistakenly Isabel's:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:10 AM

Re: spin starting??

Quote:

Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in Katrina aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.

Ah, don't worry just yet about it. There's not much there right now - if it kicks up through Monday then I'd get a bit concerned, but the models aren't going to have a decent handle on it until it gets a solid initialization - which it doesn't have right at the moment.

I will say that I don't like the look of it though, all things considered... and the A98E run is particularly bad from my perspective - although the good news is that A98E has been abysmal in terms of track prediction for quite some time....

I doubt this will get to be anything significant before it comes inland - if it comes inland - other than as a rainmaker. On the other hand if it does track across and get into the gulf, we could be in for trouble that nobody in the gulf can really stand right now......

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:10 AM

Re: spin starting??

Quote:

Did 94L develop quickly or have I been so absorbed in Katrina aftermath I didn't see it coming. That is frightening. Looks like by those models it could visit me and I certainly am not ready.

A combination of a few things caused it to develop. A frontal system and accopanying low drapped down over the US. This then spawned a trio of low pressure centers over the Bahamas and nearby Atlantic waters. From these low pressure centers both 93L and 94L have developed.

It's been believed for several days now that one of the low pressure centers would develop...but which one was unknown so they couldn't really flag an invest until there was more organization. Now 2 of the centers show organization...and are drifting away from each other. We might get two systems out of this.

(please correct me if I have the series of events wrong - I'm writing this from memory)

--RC

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:11 AM

Re: spin starting??

same here! 94 all of a sudden there it is....just down the street from me! the sat pics seem a bit ragged and the track takes it here (east coast FL) in 48 hours or so. Based on that, i don't see it strengthening. Prehaps one of the mets here can confirm my amatuer eye?

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:18 AM

Re: spin starting??

Quote:

If anyone cares, the eye MSNBC is using is unmistakenly Isabel's:

http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/goes/pub/goes/QTmovies/030912.isabel.mov

Yes, that is the one. Beatiful image, but made a wreck of the Outer Banks.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:27 AM

Re: spin starting??

Thanks so much Genesis and Random. I really depend on you guys for info. I'm still trying to learn about these storms and more times than not I have difficulty understanding them.I have been on pins and needles all week and watching the SE Coast . Your updates are definitly appreciated by many

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:36 AM

Re: spin starting??

Oh yeah, and here is an impressive photo of Katrina's eye:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricane_Katrina_Eye_viewed_from_Hurricane_Hunter.jpg

If you have the bandwidth, there is a enlarged version linked just below the image

=========

(repost your comments in the appropriate Forum)

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:38 AM

Re: "Anular" Hurricane

they graphics MSNBC uses i think is the same as last year... not sure what hurricane that is from... here's a link to close-up of Katrina at CAT 5.... NOTE file is a gif and is 33mb

Katrina eye ....

(User)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:23 AM

plague of invests

maria has a mess of weakling company tonight.
the hurricane maria is staying well out in the atlantic.. will pass around 300 miles east of bermuda i guess. nhc official only taking it up to a 2... that seems very reasonable. the storm hasn't shown much tendency to strengthen.. don't expect it'll get a whole lot stronger.. will chuck the cat 3 idea.
the invests in order are:
92L. northerly shear, no improvement from earlier. there is a broad north/south elongated turning nearing 50w, with spotty convection. the upper trough that is advancing on it from the east shouldn't be able to keep up forever, so it ought to be under modest ridging as it nears the islands. potential for slow development during the next couple of days exists, no qualm with the nhc outlook. if this thing develops it'll be a problem for somebody.
93L is more of an issue for development. the storm is drifting northward under weakening northerly shear, and should find itself under the low-shear section of the ridge tomorrow.. probably get the degree of organization to be classified. right now it's a depression with its convection removed from the center.. another of these systems not classified solely on the basis of sheared profile.
94L appears more like 92L in its level of organization... an elongated low that is part of a larger trough, with fairly persistent convection but nothing like 93L has. this system is being pattern-forced and should produce a persistent onshore flow on the east coast of florida going into the week. may not get all that deep, but will probably produce strong enough winds by gradient to merit classification. most of the globals take it northward and northeastward eventually... some have it cross florida. it may never make landfall, but if it does it'll probably be fairly weak. probably more of a pesky system than anything else.
that's pretty much it. fairly active basin, but nothing looks that threatening.
HF 0323z05september

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:33 AM

Re: plague of invests

but 93L looks to be a fish spinner rigt i mean its lrety far out there to affect the US, also..if 94L does hit florida, it could do a Katrina like trail and go into the GOM again couldnt it?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:32 AM

Re: plague of invests *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:13 AM

Re: plague of invests

Happy Birthday! I never thought about another possible katrina scenario. I guess it could be possible. What a disgusting thought.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:46 AM

Re: plague of invests

i hope the latest GFDL is out to lunch..... i couldn't even think what would happen to the gulf coast area....i know that will have to see how the next few runs go to see a trend.... 94L Runs
thats why all the models are all over the place....

Well sept. is about to get a cooking!!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 06:27 AM

Re: "Anular" Hurricane

Quote:

MSNBC's photo of a hurricane that is beneath "Katrina" has one of the pinwheel-type eyes with several mini-rotations in it. On this forum, there was a brief mention of anular hurricanes which have eyes like that when Hurricane Katrina was a Cat 5. Is the photo actually of Katrina or did they borrow a photo from a previous Cat 5? I recall some amazing stadium eye views on visible sat of Katrina, but never the pinwheel.

I haven't seen the image but I suspect that it is an image of Isabel. Yes, Katrina was an annular hurricane for some of the time it was a Cat 5, and it did have vortices in the eye, but they were not that distinct from satellite images, and I am familiar with the photos of Isabel, where very symmetric vorticies were clearly visible. I am trying to remember when during this past ten mostly sleepless days, Katrina was annular, and I seem to remember that it was after she came out of satellite blackout, early early Sunday morning. Yes I think that is right because those images blew me away.

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 12:32 PM

Re: plague of invests

Quote:

i hope the latest GFDL is out to lunch.....

Same here. GDFL run on 94L at PSU shows it tracking across FL and into New Orleans as a Cat 4. Eeep.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Note: PSU can't seem to label these systems right. Use 93L to get 94L. Use 94L or Maria for Maria (depends on the graphic...Maria's pressure is under 94L, Maria's Vorticity is under Maria). I can't figure out what PSU is doing with these graphics!

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 12:44 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

The long range Miami RAD clearly shows a circulation spinning about 100 miles east. Convection appears to be growing and the system is stationary at the moment. Global models are still split with the 00Z NOGAPs & UKMET taking the system slowly up the east coast of FL. The FSUmm5 also does this too. All of the models that run the low pressure up the coast do so very slowly - on the order of 3 to 5 days to go from SE FL to near JAX due to a massive high pressure system centered off the east coast. The other camp of models are the 06Z GFS, 00Z GFDL, and 00Z CMC which either takes the system W-NW across the peninsula into the GOM or more northward into the north-central part of the peninsula. Climatology would argue for an up the coast scenario but with the massive high pressure system slow to give way (HPC predicting rather strong zonal flow across eastern US with a deep trough along the NW US), the high looks to simply elongate east-west. Latest HPC discussion indicates that eastern High may actually strengthen:

OVER THE ERN STATES...MASSIVE SUMMERY RIDGE WILL HOLD
SWAY...WITH THE EC BUILDING HEIGHTS ALL THE WAY TO LABRADOR AS
EARLY AS DAY 5.

With the eastern High blocking any significant movement up the coast, I tend to think the latest 06Z GFS run is about right with a slow progression W-NW across the peninsula eventually into the GOM. The 00Z GFDL is a truely frightening scenario taking the storm into the GOM, strengtening it into a 120 kt hurricane and bringing that storm into NO in 5 days. For FL, perhaps a moderate tropical storm prior to landfall quickly weakening to a TD over the peninsula - lots of rain though with a slow movement.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:21 PM

Re: plague of invests

There's a new GFDL out that is showing the same track, but keeping the system weaker - only a TS or Cat 1. There is, however, run to run consistency on the track for the GFDL.

GFS is now picking up a track similar to the GFDL.

CMC is losing the system while it's over Florida, then picking up another low north of where it loses 94L. I don't know if these are the same low, or of CMC is trying to build another low?

NOGAPS is keeping the system on the atlantic side, Sending it north.

My overall view of the global models is that they simply aren't able to define this system yet. There is so much divergence that it is still a wait and see system. The run-to-run consistancy of the GFDL and now the GFS also showing the same track gives the track along the northern gulf into Louisiana more credence, but it is still too early to tell. We first have to see if 94L even survives its trip over Florida.

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 05 2005 01:24 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

The GOES Storm Floater 2 has been moved to this system. Floater 2

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:45 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

05/1145 UTC 25.3N 78.7W T1.0/1.0 94L

94L is getting some attention

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:45 PM

Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone?

she's looking strong today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.8 N... 56.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:55 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Any plans for the hurricane hunters to investigate 94L today? There is certainly a lot of convection firing up. Hard to discern a center of circulation though from the infrared sat images.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:55 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

so far they are set to investigate tomorrow at 1800z

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:56 PM

Re: Maria has formed an eye......Cat 3 anyone?

Quote:

she's looking strong today.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb...28.79 inches.
Repeating the 11 am AST position...31.8 N... 56.7 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 975 mb.

Maria can become a 200 mph superhurricane for all I care, as long as it stays out to sea.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:58 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Quote:

so far they are set to investigate tomorrow at 1800z

Where is the invest set to investigate? looking at the sat images it may be over land at 1800z tomorrow!

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 02:59 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 06/1800Z A. 07/0600Z
B. NOAA2 01HHA INVEST B. NOAA3 02HHA CYCLONE
C. 06/1630Z C. 07/0430Z
D. 26.0N 79.5W D. 26.2N 80.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2200Z E. 07/0530Z TO 07/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:02 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

from what i can discern, it is moving or slightly moving sw right now, but expected to slow even more and move either wnw or more nw for 1-2 days
we will see what NHC says i guess

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:05 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW..IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:14 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Without a doubt something is forming in the area between Freeport and Nassau in the Bahamas. The winds at Freeport are NE at 17 and at Nassau they are WSW at 9. This indicates the closed circulation between these 2 places. Both places have identical pressure at 29.92". I have had over 2 and a half inches of on and off rain for the past day and a half from this system off shore. It has also been totally overcast for the past 2 days, unusual in Florida. Believe it or not my high temperature yesterday was only 79 degrees from all the rain and overcast skies.

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:21 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Why isnt the NHC saying much about this? They must not be overly concerned?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 03:22 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Quote:

from what i can discern, it is moving or slightly moving sw right now, but expected to slow even more and move either wnw or more nw for 1-2 days
we will see what NHC says i guess

That's what I am seeing on the visible satellite... it's definately not what we want to see though. It's hard to even think about what could happen if this thing becomes Nate and crosses into the Gulf.

(Verified CFHC User)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:22 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

I used to come to these boards for fun but now I come with a dreaded feeling of 'whats next'. How can we take another storm? Meanwhile, on the local news, they say cheerfully, winds are picking up and rain is coming down. I hope this dont go into the Gulf but it looks to me like It very well may.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:26 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

There is certainly a circulation...check out this zoomed visible image...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...;type=Animation

And you can see it on Miami's radar...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:45 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

They have said conditions would be more favorable tomorrow for intensification. They are watching it. So am I. Thanks for the link and discussion here on it.

Very overcast all day... eerie and gray and worried this will develop and people won't pay much attention til it is too late.

Maybe more so because today is anniversary of Labor Day Storm.. as it is Labor Day and it does make you remember..

Thanks. See it spinning. Will see what it does tomorrow.

Also watching low wave in far atlantic

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:48 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Well it sure looks like we have something going on down there thats for sure. Had some nice showers come in off the ocean from the north east this morning. I don`t know for sure, but I think I`m seeing a little movement west north west in the last hour or so. Really not sure. Looks like we may be in for some rain or maybe more????? Gonna have to keep an eye on this baby, thats for sure........Weatherchef........... web page

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:51 PM

94L, GFDL

go chock it out that would be a horrible storm, it goes right over southeastern LA, after crossing florida

thanks for all the birthday condolencesss

(Registered User)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:55 PM

Re: SE FL Circulation

Obviously there is a lot of divergence in the models right now without an established center, but in the absence of any forecasts from the NHC, the HPC is going with the GFS and GFDL solutions (some of the better models this year) which take the low into the upper Gulf Region by day 5. Not a pretty picture if it pans out...

You can check it out at this link... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9lh.gif

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 04:59 PM

Re: 94L, GFDL

Quote:

go chock it out that would be a horrible storm, it goes right over southeastern LA, after crossing florida
thanks for all the birthday condolencesss

It would be a horrible storm no matter where it goes. Everyone's concentration is on New Orleans right now, and if a major hurricane struck - anywhere - I don't know if there are sufficient resources now to help anyone who would need help afterwards. Granted, it certainly looks like the probable soon-to-be-TD15 will not be near the intensity of Katrina when it crosses the peninsula - if that's where it heads. One can only hope that the water is really icy in the Gulf now.

I really wonder why the NHC is waiting until tomorrow to send a recon into this system - it looks as if it could even be classified as a depression now, albeit a disorganized one.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

In Grand Bahama there is heavy rain and windy conditions right know. The wind are from the NE at 22 MPH maybe there is something forming out there.

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:15 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

The last 5 observations from Freeport have all had sustained winds of 21-27 mph from the NE or ENE. However, the pressure has remained steady at 29.91"/29.92".

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Quote:

The last 5 observations from Freeport have all had sustained winds of 21-27 mph from the NE or ENE. However, the pressure has remained steady at 29.91"/29.92".

TD 15 is forming... if the NHC will ever notice is.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 05:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Cloud tops are warming again over the Bahamas, but structurally this area seems to be getting organized. We'll see. I was more impressed with it earlier, but now it just a weak low. Should pulse up again later today, and then we might have a depression. We'll see. 92L still kis a concern IMO, but days away from land. I believe there is still potential for development as it moves into the Caribbean. Other than Hurricane Maria, kind of quiet today. That could change quickly though, and I'm watching the Bahamas. Cheers!!

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

93L is now noname 15 per navy

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 07:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Im not sure where its going but its windy as h-ll here in my neck of the woods. Just south of Tampa.

weatherwatcher2

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 07:14 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

whats it like on the east coast? This little system has some kick to it no doubt about it..

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 05 2005 07:20 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Around 1:00 pm here in PSL we had something going on. Winds had to be 25 mph or more and heavy blowing rain. I looked on the Melbourne radar and weather and it said something about waterspouts and funnel clouds at Jensen Beach so I am assuming that is what happened. Still raining steady here, water standing everywhere. Whew, I'll be glad when Dec. gets here so I can relax.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 05 2005 07:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Maria and Other Culprits

Link in signature provides information regarding Ormond Beach (by Daytona). Quite a bit up the coast, but showing a down in pressure...

Michael

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 05 2005 08:18 PM

Local Mets. take

Based on GFS and analysis.

A weak low pressure area showing up as a swirl on the Miami radar near Andros. The latest upper air and looking at GFS reveals that this low will slowly drift Northwest the next few days as high pressure to the north will remain in control this week. The mid to upper flow is South to Southeast with a cyclonic circulation at 700mb and below. What we can expect
is increase in frequency of some bands of showers and imbedded thundershowers moving onshore tonight and continuing Tuesday and even longer period. A wet period may be in store with heavy downpours at times the next few days at least.

This system needs to be watched although now it seems rather weak and on the GFS a few mb's pressure drop between now and the next day or so and some organization to a depression could easily lead to a significant rain event for our area. So, in short
looks like a wet one folks and windy with strong pressure gradient between this weak subtropical low off Katrina's tail end of a wet/dry wind shift front and strong high over New England. This is what I was talking about last week with a significant rainy weather pattern this new work week after the labor day holiday today. Rotations etc in some of these squally brief showers as this weak low begins a slow transition to a possible depression. Stay tuned to the latest NOAA broadcasts and local weather network stations on this possible potential flooding situation from this tropical like system. I am sure NOAA is keeping an eye on this system in the Bahamas..I do not see this just going north but more Northwest slowwwwlllly

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 05 2005 08:29 PM

New TD 15

Navy site is now showing TD15 out of invest 93. the software error is showing when clicked on

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 08:33 PM

Re: Local Mets. take

thought this was interesting..... latest TAFB forecast danger area 1500UTC graphic
not too often a system could form over land..... must of been weird for the graphic person to highlight the state of Florida...

over land? (look at Florida in Graphic)
hmmm..... lots or rain for the Sunshine State!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152005
2100Z MON SEP 05 2005
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 67.5W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 05 2005 08:35 PM

Re: New TD 15

All these systems less 94L should be harmless, except annoying to shipping. 94L is very weak, and may stay that way for it s time here off the Florida coast. Only thing that is of any concern is the possibility of 92L getting organized in the Caribbean over the next few days. That will have to be watched closely. Cheers!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 05 2005 08:36 PM

Re: Local Mets. take

Quote:

thought this was interesting..... latest TAFB forecast danger area 1500UTC graphic
not too often a system could form over land..... must of been weird for the graphic person to highlight the state of Florida...
over land? (look at Florida in Graphic)
hmmm..... lots or rain for the Sunshine State!

That's just bizarre! And does not say much for the computer models which forecast 94L to go out to sea or to the Carolinas.

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