(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:09 PM

Re: 96L Comments

Holy Katrina

..I mean 96L. Did anyone see the 06Z GFDL run on 96L? The run brings the storm to a 137 kt hurricane in 5 days off the SW cost of FL with a pressure down around KAT levels near 920 mb. Okay, before I get the usual cascade of posts that it's only one model run, the depression hasn't even formed yet, and you know how much the models change 5 days out - do I expect this, no, but I just thought I'd mention it - the tropics are really heating up now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

CocoCrk

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

I think it's way too early to label this storm as a fish spinner. I believe in the short term it will get pulled in a generally N or NW direction due to the weakness, but the high is forecast to build back in pretty strongly during the forecast period which should turn the storm more NW if not WNW or due W somewhere North of Puerto Rico. All bets are off IMO at that point.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:34 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Tend to agree with you CC and so does the TPC. Here is their 72 hour forecast with projected movement.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:39 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

I just checked the tracks and intensity forcasts over at http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

I don't like what I'm seeing...

TD 17 looks like it will stay in the atlantic, but 96L is more worrisome. GFD* models are showing it moving into the gulf with a slight WNW track just after it passes FL. The globals are keeping it more westerly.

But the tracks are less worrisome than the intensity models. For both 17 and 96, intensity models are showing possible major Hurricanes developing, with 96 possibly hitting 120kt (Cat 4) winds.

It's really still to early for models to have a good handle on either of these beasts, but what the models do show isn't pretty.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:48 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Quote:

I think it's way too early to label this storm as a fish spinner. I believe in the short term it will get pulled in a generally N or NW direction due to the weakness, but the high is forecast to build back in pretty strongly during the forecast period which should turn the storm more NW if not WNW or due W somewhere North of Puerto Rico. All bets are off IMO at that point.

Someone who was tracking the now TD17 was telling me this two days ago. It should move north of the islands and then make a hard turn toward Florida, he suggested, and then continue moving to the west. It's definately one to watch. The system north of Puerto Rico could skip the northward motion and just head toward the Bahamas, if it develops - which looks possible in a few days.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

If TD 17 and 96L become named storms that puts it two closer to using up all the names. I think that is a possibility.
I've noticed there really hasn't been many quiet days in the tropics since the season started. Everytime one thinks there is going to
be a break something else happens. These two, given their current locations, should be especially interesting to follow.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 17 2005 02:58 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Look at what CMC does to 17L - it makes it a monster. And it's a Global Model...global's don't do that usually.

I know CMC tends to overdevelop tropical systems...but even it doesn't do it to this extent usually:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:16 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

CMC has been showing that since Thurs..in fact most of the models have been fairly consistent with development of both systems & their general track...cmc really explodes them though.

I know cmc is considered to be not as reliable as most...but this has been such a crazy season...storms surviving shear/unfavorable conditions, etc., etc...and then BAM we have a big system out there leaving us in awe of how unpredicatable & powerful Mother Nature really is.

What is it the CMC model is or isn't picking up on that the others are or aren't?

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:17 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

GFDL makes 96L a cat 5 hurricane by 96 hours, with the pressure bottoming out at 918.5 mb at 102 hours between the Keys and Cuba. That is the deepest system I can remember the GFDL ever generating, in my relatively limited experience looking at the model. If nothing else, that seems to suggest that conditions will be favorable for strengthening if a tropical cyclone can establish itself.

Timing will be important with this system... if it moves relatively quickly into the Gulf under the building ridge, it will probably tend to move W or WSW and affect Mexico rather than the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it moves as slowly as depicted in the GFDL, then a northerly turn would be more likely at some point.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:25 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Quote:

GFDL makes 96L a cat 5 hurricane by 96 hours, with the pressure bottoming out at 918.5 mb at 102 hours between the Keys and Cuba. That is the deepest system I can remember the GFDL ever generating, in my relatively limited experience looking at the model. If nothing else, that seems to suggest that conditions will be favorable for strengthening if a tropical cyclone can establish itself.

Timing will be important with this system... if it moves relatively quickly into the Gulf under the building ridge, it will probably tend to move W or WSW and affect Mexico rather than the U.S. Gulf Coast. If it moves as slowly as depicted in the GFDL, then a northerly turn would be more likely at some point.

Thunder... you're not trying to get on my good side, are you? Another Cat 5 hurricane headed for the north gulf coast? I've usually held the GFDL in high regard on its long-term projections - even if its short-term forecasts sometimes aren't as accurate, the longer-term seem to be to me. That's... frightening...

Of course, the system has yet to be classified even as a TD, and most models put it into Texas in the extreme long term. But we do not need another super storm - anywhere.

HanKFranK

(User)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:30 PM

not so good

yeah, cmc did that a couple of days ago as well, to 17. remember that in the disco beven says that the globals don't initialize the storm well. the forecast is pretty low confidence, but probably not very far from the truth. the late period movement is iffy because even though most of the globals aren't as nuts about that trough staying put near bermuda, it's still going to be a factor. it's getting close to next weekend that they show the ridge rebridging, so it could already be through by then, or just hanging around waiting to get shunted westward. a wave actually overtook what is 17 last night, and it has a pretty good turning on it up near 20/56. this turning is chugging west behind 96L and entering the same favorable environment. they're all too close to expect it to develop, but the nearby systems should at least sense its weakness and get tugged by it... none of the globals are resolving any of that.
gfdl is the great vacillator... it will kill a system one run and make a cat 4 hurricane out of it the next. i wouldn't worry about its 96L prog just yet.. the movement wnw past the keys is suspect since there should be a huge ridge over the nw gulf (unless it senses that 500mb trough supposed to dig near the SE upstream from the ridge late in the week). right now 96L has a weak center near 22/68, which is drifting west. most of the convection is to the east, and it could actually lose out in the long-run to the oncoming wave if it were to take its sweet time. i don't think it will, though. should develop by tomorrow and threaten the bahamas monday-tuesday and possibly cuba and florida around wednesday. think it will continue westward in the gulf from there.
amplitude of the wave near 35w has increased a good bit.. mjo seems to be lighting its signature up. it's upstream of a couple of developing systems so the westerly shear over it should remain stronger.. but it's south of the ridge and in a reasonable environment.. so it could slowly organize over the next few days as well.
thing i keep wondering is where are we going to put all these damned storms. nao is positive which favors zonal ridging, so unless they can find weakness and escape, they'll want to come west.
HF 1530z17september

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:46 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Even if a super-intense hurricane develops as in the GFDL model, the heat content in most of the northern Gulf would not support anything near that intensity, with the possible exception of the far NW Gulf, so chances are very good the storm would weaken if it approaches the U.S. coast. The greatest risk in the short term is if 96L ends up a little further north than expected and affects the Keys or south Florida.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 17 2005 03:56 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

With any luck, the building ridge will protect the U.S. Gulf Coast from whatever comes of 96L, while TD 17 gets steered out to sea. That might actually be the most likely scenario at this point, but lots of things could happen differently. While TD 17 is likely to head slowly NW for awhile, there is nothing immediately obvious to turn it definitively out to sea in the forseeable future.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 05:23 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Not meaning to change the subject but it appears they're having trouble with Goes 12. Last update was over 1 1/2 hours ago. Usually refreshes every 30 min. Hope it's just software.

CocoCrk

(Registered User)

Sat Sep 17 2005 05:35 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Quote:

Not meaning to change the subject but it appears they're having trouble with Goes 12. Last update was over 1 1/2 hours ago. Usually refreshes every 30 min. Hope it's just software.

GOES is down...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/bulletins.html

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 05:40 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

got it:
Subject: GI: Satellite Data Outage Goes-12

Topic: Satellite Data Outage
Message Issued: 09-17-05 / 1550z
Satellites Impacted: GOES-12
Products Impacted: images, products, etc...
Date/Time of Initial Impact: 1550z

-------------------------------
Details:
SOCC informed the Helpdesk that GOES-12 data flow is interrupted by a
satellite anomaly. It is unknown how long this may last.

------------------------------

Contact Information:
SSD Help Desk
Satellite Services Division
NOAA/NESDIS/OSDPD
301-763-8222
SSDHelpdesk@noaa.gov

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 05:49 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

i think TD#17 may go out to see from the way its looking as or now, and 96L will have to be closely watched.

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Sat Sep 17 2005 05:52 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Yeah, I would watch it real closely...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Sep 17 2005 06:18 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Does anyone have any idea as to when were going to see some rain her in west central florida? it is really really dry right now. I'd say were close to a drought.

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 17 2005 06:20 PM

Track

I think what ever happens somthing will be in southeast florida waters mid to late this week.(1) First off if 96L does not get going 17 will absorb it and head towards florida or hamper it from developing and 17 will turn west towards florida and 96L will just meander off somewhere down by mexico as 17 turns north over florida or the ne gulf of mexico. (2)if 96L gets going then 96L will deflect 17 out to sea for while and 96L will head for florida then towards the northwest gulf coast then 17 will hook back wnw towards virginia jersey area later as the ridge builds east. as for strength i would imagine hurricane force is very possible for both systems.

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 17 2005 06:25 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Seventeen forms East of the Leeward Islands

Just a quick note on the 2 systems of intrest. Gfdl is exactly what Hank said. It changes from run to run on systems that are below TS strength, dont buy in or speculate on how strong 97l will get until it makes it to a TS. Movement looks right, wnw with a bend w towards the keys or homestead area in 3-4days. It should enter the SE Gulf by Weds or Thurs. A strong ridge currently over the N gulf is expected to slide westard late next week and a trough will dig down over the SE into next weekend. It could be steer then N towards w central florida or the panhandle closing in on next weekend or the trough might not be strong enough and it will move w or even wsw towards the western gulf and mexico next weekend. Too early to tell and also matters on the speed of the system over the next 3-4days.
TD16 should become a hurricane by Monday or Tuesday and move in a general direction towards bermuda. Again a trough entering the Se the end of next week and a strong ridge over 50-60W next week will push anything slowly NNW-N. Intrests though in the near term of the NE lesser Antilles should moniter the TD for TS force winds Sunday night into Monday.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Sat Sep 17 2005 06:45 PM

Re: Track

Thats confusing,what is 16l? and 17l? do you mean TD17? well system N or Hispaniola would be TD18 so not quite sure what ya ment and then that throws off what and where you have the systems.. TY

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Sat Sep 17 2005 07:18 PM

Re: Track

16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist

AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida

Edit: Just to clarify this issue for casual users... I know Scott knows this...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Sep 17 2005 07:23 PM

Re: Track

Quote:

16L = OPHELIA 2005 -or- AL162005
17L = TD17 -or- AL172005, this is the system east of the windward islands (close to South America)
18L = TD18 -or- AL182005 Does not yet exist

AL962005 is the system East of the Turks and Caicos islands shown tracking very close to South Florida

Now that GOES is back up, we can see the latest imagery... and it appears that 96L is fizzling at least for now, while TD 17 is probably already Phillippe, but doesn't appear to be moving much to me - only difference between the last image before GOES went down and the one since it came back is size of the system, not location, that I can tell - or maybe a WNW movement, but not NW to my eye.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 17 2005 07:44 PM

Re: Track

First Vortex Recon on TD17 is out:

818
URNT12 KNHC 171845
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/18:10:10Z
B. 13 deg 38 min N
054 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 18 kt
E. 344 deg 022 nm
F. 009 deg 022 kt
G. 258 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 23 C/ 308 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 22 KT W QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25C 140/09NM FROM FL CNTR

Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

(Meteorologist)

Sat Sep 17 2005 10:00 PM

Re: Track

Actually, I think 96L looks better now... the big blow up of convection earlier was well to the east of the center of the system... there is more convection now closer to the center.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Sep 17 2005 10:46 PM

Re: Track

i will be closely watching 17 becuase most or the models like NOGAPS, FSU, GFDL all show an easterly turn at one point or another, wetehr its to FL, NC, VA, NY...im watching it. I've been seeing signs up around here that read "It's Hurricane Season..and LI is in line. Are You Prepared"....i don't know those are not to appealing..

what do people think about this thanng.

mojorox

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Sep 17 2005 11:07 PM

Re: Track

I am supposed to be driving to ocean springs for a week to help my sis sift through the rubble of her house. How soon if anything develops do you think there would be any weather in the area. We are taking a tent.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Sep 17 2005 11:23 PM

Re: Track

If you're taking a tent, I'd go buy a weather radio and spare batteries to augment it. These storms are just developing. The models aren't in horrible dissagreement the way they usually are with developing systems, but at the same time you can never trust tracks (a) with systems below Tropical Storm strength and (b) more than 2 days out. TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.

--RC

SEFL

(Registered User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:31 AM

96L

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Track

Ok, the 18Z 96L model is out...and it is downright disturbing. 138kt hurricane from 96L just as it passes the southern tip of Florida.

The 12Z 17L model (18Z isn't out yet) shows 17L as a 126kt hurricane, though well out to sea.

Now I realize the GFDL isn't a great predictor of intensity, but frankly these two are disturbing. Anything that shows twin Cat 4 and Cat 5 storms...ack.

At least SHIPS isn't showing them that strong...only bringing both to about 100kt storms.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Track

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

This latest loop with stated time 8:15 pm EDT shows TD 17 starting to get the classic look. I hope this little storm stays well away.
The disturbed area over near Puerto Rico still has some growing to do. I would prefer rain only thank you.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:43 AM

Re: Track

Quote:

TD 17 isn't likely to affect you, but Invest 96L might. Its at least a few days from Florida at the earliest, though, no matter what track it takes.

--RC

hey RC, will 17 affect anyone or you think it will stay off the coast n out to sea?

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:47 AM

Re: Track

The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.

Dave

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:03 AM

Re: 96L

Quote:

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:47 AM

Re: 96L

Should have TS Phillipe at the 11:00PM advisory.

URNT12 KNHC 172040
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/20:13:20Z
B. 13 deg 44 min N
054 deg 54 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 47 deg 069 nm
F. 151 deg 034 kt
G. 050 deg 107 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 307 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0117A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 18:21:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 333 / 8NM

Recon Page

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:13 AM

Re: Track

Quote:

The 138kt you stated is at 950mb so if you drop that down to sea level then you have 110kt.

Dave

Uh...the GFDL model shows sea leavel pressure at 936.5mb when winds are 138kt@950mb...which means that is surface wind speed by then, right?

And 17L's 18Z GFDL models don't show much change from the 12Z ones.

Edit: Strange e-mail address auto-generated in this post

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:18 AM

Re: Track

Read the bottom of the GFDI chart where you need to reduce MB by 15 to 25 % see 000z run

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

SEFL

(Registered User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:35 AM

Re: 96L

Quote:

Quote:

We are getting local warnings (Palm Beach County and south) for Monday and Tuesday for 96L up to tropical storm level.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:39 AM

thanks for info on statement for keys/south florida

Thank you. Been watching it tonight on a few loops. Read a few people.. boards, blogs, bastardi.. and appreciate the heads up.

Looks like by tomorrow morning there could be 3 systems...
td 17.. phillipe
td 18?
and system behind depression currently known as 17

good luck everyone, going to be a long few days

BillD

(User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:40 AM

Re: 96L

We have TS Phillipe and TD18 at 11:00.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

Local statements for South Florida have us all on edge. Too much like Katrina...

Bill

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:40 AM

Re: 96L

No longer 96L...now TD18 according to NHC.

Ok...NHC is having problems with their listing. I think they are trying to figure out how to get everything posted or such...as they have TD18, TD17, and TS Philippe now...with Ophelia stuff appearing under parts of TD18...and Ophelia vanishing before she went Extratropical.

And reload...TD18, TD17, and TD18. Er...??? - someone is having problems there

And reload...TD18, TS Philippe, and TD18...lets see how long it keeps up before someone at NHC calls tech support

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:47 AM

Just like that....

Just like that.... Hurricane Watches just east of the South Florida coast. WOW!!!!!
How things change quickly.

At 11 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwest Bahamas.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:48 AM

Re: 96L

Quote:

No longer 96L...now TD18 according to NHC.

They have a few problems with the list - stuff under TD18 includes both Ophelia and TD18 right now...depending on the item. I wonder if maybe they only can support 5 systems on the website setup so they're retiring Ophelia from their page before it goes extratropical?

I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least). I suspect that Ophelia has been declared extratropical as of 11pm. The 11am advisory indicated that the transition was expected within 12 hours, didn't it?

Philippe is a definate fish spinner, thankfully. Hopefully it stays that way.

The odd thing about TD 18 is that the last IR imagery I looked at made it look very badly defined. But I've been unable to get IRL Monterey site to load most of today, and SSD has not moved a floater to it yet, or hadn't last time I checked. The forecast track is certainly more encouraging than I anticipated, but 5 days out it's hard to trust right now.

Maybe by tomorrow the NHC will have corrected their headings.

ETA: They initially issued the statements for TD 18 under the wrong heading... that has been fixed now, per the corrected advisory package at NHC. I guess they haven't sent out the latest package for Ophelia - probably discovered the mistake when they went to send it out LOL

ETA 2: Ophelia has officially been declared extratropical. The NHC has issued its final advisory, despite the fact that the Canadian Hurricane Center has maintained its watches and warnings for Nova Scotia and other locations. Landfall of Ophelia is expected overnight.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Just like that....

Quote:

Just like that.... Hurricane Watches just east of the South Florida coast. WOW!!!!!
How things change quickly.

At 11 PM EDT...the government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the northwest Bahamas.

Yeah no kidding. Looks like the Sept. 10th peak to the hurricane season ended up being a week late!

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:54 AM

Re: 96L

Quote:

I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least).

We also had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia at once.

Every few minutes the NHC page changes which ones are there...but if you click on 11pm stuff you can sort of figure out what we have:

TD17 -> TS Philippe
96L -> TD18

And the spare one is NHC calling their web developers asking "what am I doing wrong?"

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:57 AM

Re: 96L

Quote:

Quote:

I noticed that too... but we had 3 named storms earlier in the season (Katrina, Lee, and Maria I think - at least).

We also had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia at once.

Every few minutes the NHC page changes which ones are there...but if you click on 11pm stuff you can sort of figure out what we have:

TD17 -> TS Philippe
96L -> TD18

And the spare one is NHC calling their web developers asking "what am I doing wrong?"

I thought the spare one was NHC calling their web developers asking "How do I get rid of this pest [Ophelia] that refuses to die even though it's COLD in Canada!??"

They have no graphics up for TD18 currently - at least not the last time I refreshed the page.. and I didn't see a discussion. What's the confidence level in the forecast?

I can just imagine the 10:30pm NHC Tropical Outlook:
"The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Philippe, near the Lesser Antilles, on newly formed Tropical Depression 18 east of the Bahamas, and has pushed Tropical Storm Ophelia off to the Canadian Hurricane Center because we don't have room for it anymore.

Oh, and if you're keeping track, we're issuing advisories on Hurricane Jova, Hurricane Kenneth, and Tropical Storm Lidia in the East Pacific, too. "

Six semi-tropical entities in the western hemisphere at one time. That's got to be a record.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:02 AM

Re: 96L

It looks like they got it fixed...and Ophelia returned into the spare one.

I guess she just won't die

---

Since NRL still is down...here are the track graphics they use from a different military source:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif

(Homepage: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html )

---

Yeah, Hugh...6 storms...wow. 2 Hurricanes, 3 TS's, and 1 TD...in the western hemisphere. It's probably been quite lively down at the NHC today.

With TD18 and TS Philippe...we probably will get a new topic soon

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:12 AM

the rita contingency

we have philippe active east of the islands, but progged to slowly move north/northwest towards the central atlantic. checks out well with the steering present. some of the globals aren't taking it much further west at all.. do expect some of that later in the period as the ridging becomes flatter and heights rise near the northeast u.s. coast. extended ensembles show ridging near the canadian maritimes, so philippe may be trapped under that or trying to get around it this time next week. right now bermuda looks like the likeliest destination, though.
different story for newly formed td 18. kind of stupid that it got the upgrade looking like it does after philippe looking better and getting ignored through two advisory cycles. the system is only slowly organizing and i think the hurricane watch for the nw bahamas is probably uncalled for. timetable i had earlier was off from what looks to be the case now.. system should pass by south florida on tuesday. official shows a hurricane around then, and that makes sense. a stronger storm will be further north, a weaker one closer to or over cuba. the maximum potential problem for florida with this thing is nothing compared to what mexico and texas will be facing around september 23rd/24th. most of the globals have the track near the yucatan and into ne mexico, but just barely... the track hooks nw as the ridge erodes and takes the core of the storm nw as it closes in on the coast. mix that solution with the further north nhc track right now and you have a recurving hurricane hitting texas at the end of next week... a mature one that has crossed the gulf. of course thats 6-7 days out and not trustworthy at this point.. but i'd be getting my rita contingency figured out and ready if i was on the texas coast this week.
wave nearing 40w has a very good signature. favor the southern end to try to do something (too much shear on the northern end). it's low-moderate potential at this point... probably not a threat to land if it can develop.
eastpac is going nuts. three active storms out there right now. if they keep developing, look for the atlantic to remain active. kenneth reaching major status is the first this season in that basin to do so. they've got quantity, but not quality. jova may get close enough to hawaii late next week to affect their weather. modest possibility, at least.
HF 0312z18september

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:20 AM

Re: the rita contingency

New area NHC is watching for development -- from the 11PM TWO:

Quote:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/180314.shtml

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:20 AM

Possibility

Here is a possibility from the NHC as the system is over or near the Florida Keys.

The 18z GFDL model rapidly intensifies the system into a 120-kt hurricane in 72 hours. While that rate of intensification may be a little excessive...this system reaching strong category 2 status within the next 72 hours is certainly a viable scenario.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:29 AM

Re: the rita contingency

So, you think this thing could hit even the upper Texas coast or are we looking at only South Texas? Of course, it is still too early to
tell and right now it looks like it will be heading to Mexico. Of course, Katrina was supposed to make her second landfall
in the Panhandle and we know what happened there.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:44 AM

Re: Just like that....

What I find that is amazing is you see the statement "All's quiet in the Atlantic." and then bam, here we go again.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:47 AM

Re: the rita contingency

Quote:

So, you think this thing could hit even the upper Texas coast or are we looking at only South Texas? Of course, it is still too early to
tell and right now it looks like it will be heading to Mexico. Of course, Katrina was supposed to make her second landfall
in the Panhandle and we know what happened there.

Definately too early to tell. Stay tuned

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:53 AM

blob

the Blob 700 miles wsw of the cape verde islands looks better then phillipe or td 18 ide have to say.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:18 AM

Worries me difference between models & advisories

Understand that it is only one model run.. or two but the models are showing a very well developed hurricane and the advisories are going for now.. with a strong tropical storm or maybe a hurricane.

Watched all local Miami channels and saw at least 3 different scenarios.

1 called it a probable hurricane or strong tropical storm as it moves over this area
2 called it a depression and most likely a tropical storm
3 one called it as going mostly through the keys as a tropical storm with a big question mark

I understand the need to wait to see models verify and it is only a depression just coming together on the most recent imagery.. but

Looking at models calling it a STRONG cane .. various wind speeds shown and a developing tropical storm on TV on your typical Sunday when people generally pay little attention to the news... worries me a lot.

At least they mentioned that during the Dolphin game there will be constant updates.. shows how serious they are already taking it even if they only have it as a ? on their maps.

Bobbi.. everyone take care and continue to give to the red cross or who ever you wish to give to..

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:51 AM

Re: the rita contingency

Quote:

we have philippe active east of the islands, but progged to slowly move north/northwest towards the central atlantic. checks out well with the steering present. some of the globals aren't taking it much further west at all.. do expect some of that later in the period as the ridging becomes flatter and heights rise near the northeast u.s. coast. extended ensembles show ridging near the canadian maritimes, so philippe may be trapped under that or trying to get around it this time next week. right now bermuda looks like the likeliest destination, though.

HF what you said about the northeast, could that have affect on the path possibly bringing it into the NE US..im not qure i completely understand.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:14 AM

Re: the rita contingency

Since the recon found the system more to the sw of sat loc....I expect the impact will be from WPB south and mainly the keys. Probably TS force winds with hurricane conditions near the center. Wont be also as bullish with the system, probably 65-80mph until florida.

scottsvb

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:38 AM

Re: the rita contingency

Wow Scott, not what I wanted to hear. We got hit here last year I think around that same time by Jeanne No maybe it was around the 23rd. Anyway I sure hope she skips by me Only time will tell.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:57 AM

Re: the rita contingency

We may have TS Ruth now

Recon

Not with 1009mb pressure and 21kt max flight-level winds, not yet... -Clark

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 10:59 AM

Re: the rita contingency

Quote:

We may have TS Ruth now

Recon

Not with 1009mb pressure and 21kt max flight-level winds, not yet... -Clark

That would be truly incredible, since there is no Ruth on the NHC list of storm names in the Atlantic Basin - in any year!

The convection is looking better, though. I'd say we will have T. S. RITA by sunset.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 11:28 AM

Re: the rita contingency

so is it possible that Philippe could affect the coast, or will it definatley be a fish spinner, Thanks

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 11:59 AM

Re: Future of Phillipe

From Steve Gregory's Blog at Weather Underground:

The model runs from this evening continue to show Phillipe moving on a NNW track -- but with the slowing forward motion -- we are again faced with increased uncertainty regarding the track. In either case, a steady intensification process is likely as the the water temps are very warm, and the shear environment should remain in the 10Kts or less category, with decreasing shears as time goes on. Although the models all show the system moving NNW for the next 4-5 days - missing the Caribbean, the longer range GFS shows the ridge to the north building across the Atlantic by mid week -- and this could turn the storm move westward late in the week.

Interesting take on the long-term movement - I don't like the thought of the Ridge building in across the Atlantic after 4-5 days.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:23 PM

Re: Future of TD18

The convection has really fired up and expanded around the center of TD 18 this morning. Looks like we may have tropical storm Rita later today. Looks like a more W-NW or NW movement the next 36 hrs followed by a due west. It'll be interesting to see how much latitude the storm gains before being forced west by the strong ridge over the northern GOM. Will it be a hurricane in 48 hrs? This time of year and given the SSTs - probably. Not sure if its a done deal on the westward movement across the GOM since there are some hints that the TX high will retrograde west and a weakness will develop due to a trough coming into the SE states around Wednesday.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:56 PM

Re: Future of TD18

I think the system is better organized than the imagery shows right now. It is still developing.. as they say.

There is a tendency in the immediate for it to travel more to the west than thought earlier but I think that pressure will relent and it will begin moving wnw again..

Though the high is strong there is what to pull at it enough that I think this will be a Keys/S Fla system.. with luck thread the needle and go t hrough the Straits.. wouldn't start wishing it on Cuba just yet.

Wishes aren't real. Fantasy isn't fact. Models predict.. watch the plots and see what verifies and stay with that.

Good posts this morning, thanks HankFrank and everyone else
Bobbi

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 12:56 PM

Re: the rita contingency

Quote:

Since the recon found the system more to the sw of sat loc....I expect the impact will be from WPB south and mainly the keys. Probably TS force winds with hurricane conditions near the center. Wont be also as bullish with the system, probably 65-80mph until florida.This is a update to my post last night before recon.

scottsvb

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:27 PM

97L

Looks like it has been classifired. Running a T Number of 1.0 on the DVorak scale.

And TD 18 is running a DVorak number of 2.0 if I remember right.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:37 PM

Re: 97L

T1.0 doesn't make a Tropical Wave a Tropical Depression for sure...so they might not classify it yet. I've seen systems make a 2.0 before being classified, and others classified at 1.0. There is more involved than simply Dvorak intensity, and I don't know what all of NHC's criteria are.

However, I'd expect 97L to be classified today...it's not looking so great on IR right now, but these things flux a lot. All the conditions are favorable...so an upgrade would definately not surprise me.

I'd also expect Rita to come out of TD18.

GFDL intensities are less insane today, now making moderate strength storms instead of super strength. Unfortunately the same can't be said for the Globals. CMC is still trying to make a monster in the Atlantic. UKMET is also making a pair of dangerous looking systems. GFS is keeping them more sane. NOGAPS has 18 tracking over Cuba and thus not developing much until it reemerges into the gulf. Both GFS and NOGAPS show 17-Philippe as the more major system.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:41 PM

Re: 97L

Latest GFDL backs WAY off on the intensity of T.D. 18, not making it a hurricane until it is well into the Gulf. That would be good news for south Florida, though the latest solution appears a little unrealistic... the GFDL seems to lack nuance, either keeping a system as a depression or weak storm, or blowing it up into a major hurricane. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:46 PM

Re: 97L

Here is the model runs on 97L so far:

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:50 PM

Re: Future of TD18

TD 18 looking much better on IR & Visible Sat this morning. Would not be surprised to see it being upgraded to Rita later on today, probably this evening or tonight. This is looking more like a Keys to extreme south Fla event, because of the building high which will keep it on a generally w to wnw direction. This potentially could be a strong TS or Cat 1 as it passes throught the straits, Keys or extreme S Fla, in any scenario , looks to be a messy mid-week for S. Fla.
TG

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:50 PM

Re: 97L

Quote:

Latest GFDL backs WAY off on the intensity of T.D. 18, not making it a hurricane until it is well into the Gulf. That would be good news for south Florida, though the latest solution appears a little unrealistic... the GFDL seems to lack nuance, either keeping a system as a depression or weak storm, or blowing it up into a major hurricane. The reality will likely be somewhere in between.

GFDL, throw us a bone! Geez. Looks like the system will stay south of the peninsula...I am not used to including the Keys in the "South Florida" category...I've always known them as "the keys."

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 01:57 PM

Re: Future of TD18

Is it a possibility the storm (18) would move west and then take a more northward turn? Will that
depend on what the high over Texas does? Also, any thoughts on intensity?
The storm looks like it is heading into Mexico at the moment but I hope the Gulf Coast Coast states are paying attention. NHC says it
could be classified as a TS today, Rita.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:03 PM

Re: Future of TD18

Dont think the next recon will get there until 2pm but I could be wrong. Anyways they will make this now a 35mph system at least by 11am. System is slowly getting better organized. If you live in TX I would just watch this for now, after Monday into Tuesday we will have a better idea if it will go to TX or whereever.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:10 PM

Re: Future of TD18

SCOTT, IF THIS STORM PASSES BY US IN CENTRAL WEST FLORIDA LIKE ALL THE OTHERS HAVE THIS WILL MEAN MORE DRY NO HUMIDITY O CHANCE OF RAIN RIGHT?

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:28 PM

Re: Future of TD18

LOL your pretty much correct,,,this should be the same as what Katrina brought to W central florida if it moves as the NHC forecasts,,but there might be a band or 2 hit our southern zones, but this is subject to change of course. 1 day, I dont know when, but a hurricane will hit w central florida and get all of us by surprise that it didnt go west of here into the panhandle. That weak ridge that slides up and down the state seems to send energy thru S florida and around or gets pushed to S florida and the bahamas and a system moves NE into the panhandle from that direction. Some day the ingredients will come into place for a nightmare. Probably not in my lifetime though at age (35).

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:32 PM

Re: Future of TD18

It just kinda stinks that these systems interfere with our usual afternoon patterns. Its bone dry here and so hazy. Lokks like were in for the same scenario again.. Maybe we'll get some rain in november!

JYarsh

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:42 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Does anyone else see that the track of Phillipe is very similar to Hurricane Isabel right now or, or do think it is almost possitively going to be a fish spinner?

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:46 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Nope...

Isabel: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/createstorm.asp?stormnum=1303&year=2003
Philippe: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/085158.shtml?5day

Philippe's a lot further south and moving northward a lot further east. Plus it developed a lot further west than Isabel. Isabel was already a Cat 5 by the time she was due north of Philippe's present position.

--RC

Rob1966

(Registered User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:50 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

11:00 up>
Hurricane Watch for the Fl. Keys

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 02:59 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Why did they issue watches and warnings for the Bahamas,that is due east of me and the keys that are south of me,But not issue any for my area?????.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:14 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Why did they issue watches and warnings for the Bahamas,that is due east of me and the keys that are south of me,But not issue any for my area?????.

I think the Bahamas issue their own watches/warnings in coodination with NHC....I am not sure if NHC issued those watches for Freeport. Hurricane Watch for Keys is appropriate considering the amount of time it takes to evacuate the entire island chain. Looks like another test for our beloved FEMA.

Psyber

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:28 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Looong ways out but tracking towards the GOM. Wouldn't THAT just be about the worst thing ever for this thing to cause any storm surge towards New Orleans/biloxi etc...

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Why did they issue watches and warnings for the Bahamas,that is due east of me and the keys that are south of me,But not issue any for my area?????.

Bob, they will issue watches arnings when the criteria for such is met. i suspect we will be under a TS watch at some point today. I will issue a Hurricane Warning for all residents of fort lauderdale if that helps, lol. That means run over to the elbow room and secure a stool at the bar.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:56 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

It appears to be pretty unlikely that the TD 18 system will have much of an effect on the LA/MS area. It is likely to take a track well south of there, though the some of the latest model runs and the official forecast have more of a NW turn in the western Gulf, bringing the system towards the Texas coast.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 03:58 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH
SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR
REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.

This portion of the 11am concerns me...any ideas on how much further north the center has relocated?

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:24 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Here are the tracks on 97L - looks like it could also be a threat to the Gulf:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:26 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Quote:

Why did they issue watches and warnings for the Bahamas,that is due east of me and the keys that are south of me,But not issue any for my area?????.

Bob, they will issue watches arnings when the criteria for such is met. i suspect we will be under a TS watch at some point today. I will issue a Hurricane Warning for all residents of fort lauderdale if that helps, lol. That means run over to the elbow room and secure a stool at the bar.

I was at the elbo room for Katrina.If you look at the map of the watches it seems to me they should have put us in the watch area.I mean due east,and due south have watches.Just thought it was a little odd.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Bob... i suspect i am in the watch area... hard to tell i am in country walk.. does the watch area extend that far north.. seems like part of the penninsula is under a watch

ok i answered my own question... the watch area is from Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef, which is 15 minutes south of me...

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 04:49 PM

Re: Future of TD18

We had our "Surprise" last year with Charley....where were you?? Don't like your prediction about West Central Fla........

edit - let's be nice to one another please.

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:11 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Local TV Met says that the watches would probably be extended to the SE FL coast later this evening or tonight. Similiar to Katrina as she was developing , the center may have a tendency to form more towards the north as the whole system generally moves towards the W or WNW, this will bring more of the bad weather (north side of storm) into Dade & Broward.

TG

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:16 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

ref td 18:
i agree with 11am.... recon will be out there in a little bit... so will have a pretty good fix of the center.... i do agree it looks a little farther north than the 11adv pkg.... so i would expect a slight shift in the 5pm adv. tonight to the right or north in short term....

**Houston does not need this system...nor the central Gulf Coast..... the western GOM havs very warm waters right now, and that would have me worried that a Hurricane at Landfall would not be out of the question in my mind in the western (texas coast) gulf.... at this time....

i think the mayor of New Orleans needs too rethink letting people back into the city in the near future, or until the threat of this system is gone.....

sat

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:20 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Let's focas on south Florida first,Then will see what happens after that.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:25 PM

Re: Future of TD18 *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:29 PM

Re: Future of TD18

no kiddin! I think maybe if they read your whole post instead of just a piece of it they wouldnt have responded that way.. I just want some rain.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:41 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Let's focas on south Florida first,Then will see what happens after that.

to shutter or not to shutter that is the question... i have a two story house and shuttering is a lot of money and effort..... not to mention my hubby is a pilot and may not be here to help put them up or take them down.... decisions decisions... :?:

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:41 PM

Re: Future of TD18

The WPB stations aren't hyping yet. just keeping an eye on it. If (?) it stayd near track we'll get some wind and rain. I'd expect some type of TS warning by 11:00PM. The Keys are taking action though...

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:46 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

My shutter guy says not to put shutters up if winds are below 80 mph, but my house is only 4 years old. He said that you're more likely to get hurt putting up shutters then having something break the windows at that point. Remember that's an opinion only.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:47 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Guess that is the best thing (focus on Florida) to do but if one lives in Texas it would be a good thing to know what the storm might do. five days out.
Houston would be very difficult to evacuate. Doesn't hurt to have a plan just incase. Here in Southeast Texas we have a pretty
good evacuation plan in place. We evacuated a few years ago for Lilli (fortunately she turned at the last minute). But
still evacuations take time. Plus we have 16,000 new residents because of Katrina. I guess that is why I am interested in what this
storm might do down the road. I live on the coast plus I have family in Houston. So just want to be prepared...just in case.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:48 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

My shutter guy says not to put shutters up if winds are below 80 mph, but my house is only 4 years old. He said that you're more likely to get hurt putting up shutters then having something break the windows at that point. Remember that's an opinion only.

my house is 9 years old and i agree...... just fear this thing will blow up.... Katrina gave us quite a scare and i just want to be more prepared.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:53 PM

Rita?

Why does Accuweather have her already named? I just looked and it has it as Rita. Just curious

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:56 PM

Re: Rita?

Accuweather is really in their own world... i don't even look at them for any reliable info.. i stick to this website and to NHC. For local weather here in miami i find nbc 6 to be the best.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 05:57 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Looks like the center of TD18 (Rita?) is about 50 miles N-NE of the NHC 11 AM position. Based on this re-location of the center, I would expect a northward track adjustment at 5PM, assuming that the originally forecasted track remains the same. This would put the landfall somewhere in the Upper Keys in about 48-60 hours. Of course, 2-3 days out there could still be some adjustment so SE FL is certainly not out of the woods by any means.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:06 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

where did you see it was relocated 50miles NNE of the 11am position?

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:12 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Here's the recon on TD18 from 1:30 EDT. It looks like they didn't find her center with max FL winds of only 17kts.

723
URNT12 KNHC 181754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/17:28:20Z
B. 21 deg 54 min N
072 deg 20 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 15 kt
E. 149 deg 040 nm
F. 212 deg 017 kt
G. 142 deg 055 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 25 C/ 304 m
J. 23 C/ 323 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 17 KT SE QUAD 17:09:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 142 / 55NM

And here's the recon track: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

---

BTW, remember all that insanity about number of systems we were discussing last night? NHC now has 7 listed...3 atlantic, 4 east pacific. Wow.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:13 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

I see some models moving south?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:18 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

I'm estimating it from the VIS SAT - the NHC alos mentioned it in their 11 AM disc.

THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY
POSITION.

Look at the floater scottsvb, there are clouds moving CC above the "L" marker. Now whether its 30, 40, or 50 miles, have to wait for recon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:29 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Despite Ron's suggestion of the possible satellite appearance of a NE reformation, consistent with the 2pm advisory recon found the center about .2 degrees west and .1 degree south of the 11am estimated position. So if there was a NE reformation, the movement and possible reformation (or perhaps incorrect position estimate in the 11am advisory) have evened out to W or WSW over 3 hours.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:33 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

URNT14 KNHC 181819
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01209 10715 10009 12523 21015
02211 20716 20009 22524 21016
03213 30719 30008 32523 21015
04214 40721 40008 42523 24014
05217 50722 50008 52423 24014
MF212 M0717 MF017
OBS 01 AT 17:03:20Z
OBS 05 AT 17:23:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 22010
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01221 10725 10007 12323 99005
02223 20727 20008 22323 03019
03224 30729 30008 32423 05020
04226 40731 40009 42323 04027
05228 50733 50010 52323 04026
06230 60735 60010 62323 06028
07231 70737 70010 72423 07029
MF231 M0736 MF032
OBS 01 AT 17:33:20Z
OBS 07 AT 18:03:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 05025
AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 05

32kts fl level.... so higher winds on first pass (outbound)... recon should be heading into NE quad now... would expect slightly higher winds...

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Despite Ron's suggestion of the possible satellite appearance of a NE reformation, consistent with the 2pm advisory recon found the center about .2 degrees west and .1 degree south of the 11am estimated position. So if there was a NE reformation, the movement and possible reformation (or perhaps incorrect position estimate in the 11am advisory) have evened out to W or WSW over 3 hours.

My re-location is based on the VIS SAT alone - what I may be seeing is a MLC north of the LLC. It seems likely that the LLC will reform (migrate) northward under the MLC or else we'll have a very disorganized system. In fact, the NHC mentioned this possibility in their 11 AM disc.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:44 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

It definitly looks as though the midlevel circulation is NNE of where the first forcast point is located. Definitly looks better than this morning. How often is recon going into this system?

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

If the MLC and LLC get vertically aligned...this thing could pop

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Sep 18 2005 07:10 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Interesting tidbit from the HPC! Who was it that wanted rain for the west side of Fl..?..LOL!

"WITH OTHER FEATURES... T.D. 18 IS FCST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH
AND BE LOCATED OVER THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE START OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. TPC/NHC TRACK FROM THE 09Z ADVISORY IS
REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS FOR DAYS 3-5... SO FOLLOWED THE
GFS FOR EXTRAPOLATION INTO TX FOR THE DAYS 6-7 FCST. 06Z GFS
CONCURRS WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. DGEX STILL HAVING PROBLEMS WITH TOO
MUCH TROF/SHEAR AXIS DROPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST DAYS 3 TO 4
RESULTING IN SPLITTING T.D. 18 INTO TWO PULLING ONE PIECE INTO
WRN FL WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHILE REAL CENTER TRAVELS WEST IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENET WITH OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

CocoCrk

(Registered User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 07:14 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

I agree...looking at the visible loop and the tropical forecast points put out by the NHC earlier today...the LLC is definitely relocating by a pretty substantial distance further North...it even seems like it may have picked up some speed over the past hour or so...

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 07:54 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Random Chaos -- anytime they send out a vortex message, they inherently found a center -- often the center -- within the storm. They had only sampled a small area of the system, however, so the low value on the max flight-level winds is somewhat misleading. There have been higher values in other parts of the storm though, as we've since found out.

As for the shutter question... I don't even see why that's an issue. If you do it correctly and per the instructions, you shouldn't hurt yourself putting them up. For any substantial system -- and yes, 80mph or 80kt is substantial -- they should go up. If not, you run the risk of substantial property damage, even in a newer house...ask the people of Orlando what they saw from similar/weaker winds last year from Charley.

TD18 is getting better organized, but it's not Rita yet. Probably tonight, with the ultimate NHC path looking good from here. This'll keep the bulk of the storm south of the mainland but probably lash into the Keys in a fashion similar to that seen with Georges in 1998. I'd go a little stronger than the NHC on intensity, but only as the storm starts to hit the Florida Straits and not before then. It'll pass over the Loop Current as Katrina did, but the heat content is nowhere near as high as it was; the relatively fast motion of the storm will mitigate any potential negative effects that could affect the storm in Katrina's wake. Fair bet that we have a major hurricane affecting somewhere in northern Mexico or the Texas coastline by the end of the upcoming week...everyone from central Louisiana westward needs to watch this one, in some cases just in case future changes are needed to the track forecast.

Phillipe is getting better organized and may be a hurricane later tonight or early tomorrow. Recon isn't going to be going out there but once more unless the track forecast changes given the threat from TD18, but despite that I feel this has the potential to be the season's next major hurricane. Might be a threat for Bermuda down the line toward next weekend as a category 3/4 storm; the area that it is passing over has some of the highest heat content in the entire basin outside of the Caribbean and is forecast to be a region of weak shear, aiding in the ultimate intensity of the storm.

Will have to watch the wave in the central Atlantic for future development; it probably won't get drawn north like Phillipe, however. Might be a threat to the islands later in the week, but probably won't develop until it gets a little further west than where it is now. Stan? Too early to say.

Active train in the E. Pacific; too many storms & disturbances, particularly with new TD13E absorbing TS Lidia. Kenneth is a midget major hurricane; if it gets into the cooler waters, it should weaken faster than forecast; if it doesn't, it could maintain longer than is forecast, making the track forecast critical to the intensity forecast. The bigger player is Jova, however, which could end up as a sidescraping threat for Hawaii later in the week. Current track keeps it east of there, but it still must be watched as the tendency with the storm has been to head further to the west.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 08:18 PM

Norcross on before the Fins Game

Will see if he is right at five.

Seems unhappy with old track.. said basically "news not especially good" (wrote it down)

norcross emphasizes this is the OLD track that brought the storm into our general area...

thinks storm is reforming higher up and has banding features.. good to see him on the job

makes us feel better

he seems to feel storm is organizing around 23 (gave that number) which would be the possible mid center we are discussing.

said he is waiting for five
aren't we all?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 08:46 PM

Re: Norcross on before the Fins Game

it looks right now as if its heading more north than the keys. Maybe the keys will be spared.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Sun Sep 18 2005 08:54 PM

We Have Rita

NRL now lists TD #18 as Rita...looks like we have the upgrade

--Lou

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:06 PM

Re: We Have Rita

Yep...NHC lists as Rita as well

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:08 PM

Re: We Have Rita

TS Watch up to Deerfield Beach as well

stevie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:14 PM

Re: We Have Rita

What are the winds predicted to be as RITA nears Florida.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:27 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

It still looks to be reforming north of where they have the center. Thats where the winds and convetion seem to be wrapping and where the strongets winds were located. Also seems as though the sheer is out of the SE and the ULL over W Cuba is moving SW

jusforsean

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:33 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

UH Oh! Here we go again!!!!
Seems like it will end up being a dade/broward thing last minute mabey?? Although it also seems like they always end up jogging south from where they are predicted to hit. We live in a manufactured home so cant take any chances! Does anyone think it will continue the northern trend? How abouth the new wave , too early to tell i suppose.
Thanks,
jusforsean

crpeavley

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:37 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Last couple of frames on the IR loop seem to illustrate a possible reformation.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:48 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

The movement does not look west at all.More like a W/NW or even alittle more NW than west.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Sep 18 2005 09:52 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

I wonder what the chances are this one will just hug the east coast and then become a fish? it appears to be more nw to me too!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Sep 18 2005 10:28 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

restless and want more information

arent there bouys out there that would show where exactly surface pressures are?

hard to buy a west movement when cords don't show that and neither do the sats

live in cbs house in dade and still can't just not worry on it

and we do have watches

and i dont think the water vapor loop shows a westward movement.. or not from that point anyway

BillD

(User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 10:41 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Direction is difficult to determine from satellite when a storm is just forming. There is just too much going on to know what is movement and what is the storm pulling itself together. If you look at the lower level banding out to the West of Rita, it does look to be heading just North of West. But the official track does take it slightly North of West and then it shifts more West. So a northerly component at this point is not outside the forecast. Stop looking at frame to frame, it is all about trends. Trends in movement and trends in the models.

Bill

nowhammies

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 10:49 PM

The Bahamas

My brother in law and his new wife just left for Nassau on their honeymoon this morning. I am really not clear on Bahamian Geography, so I am wondering what they should expect for the effect on their week. Looks to me like they will just need to find inside things to do for tommorrow...
Heres to hoping that they dont have to make major changes in their trip.

stevie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Sep 18 2005 10:59 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

I agree with Bill, lots going on. Rita is blowing up as far as cloud coverage, ULL is backing off and Rita doesn't like the interaction, as well as the interaction with Phillippe and the short wave draped across the SW. All are factors on visble sat. as Rita is forming.

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 11:52 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Looks like NHC agrees...have the movement at NW at 8pm adv

(Weather Master)

Sun Sep 18 2005 11:57 PM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

From the latest recon

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

From the latest recon

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

Where is the eye forming, I wonder? The IR imagery looks like the majority of the strong stuff is east of the apparent center. If the center is actually under the biig ball... ut-oh! Didn't we just do this a few weeks ago? I'm getting a sense of deja vu, except Rita could be stronger than Katrina was when it hit the coast of Florida.

ETA: Take note of this list:
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

The only names left on the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season list. Based upon the discussion, it looks like a system midway between Africa and S. America could ultimately become Stan. Someone needs to pour some dry ice into the Atlantic.

Convergence

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

From the latest recon

1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

That was fast! If this recon is legit they'll probably do an update before 11.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Quote:

From the latest recon
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 67 KT N Quadrant at 23:16:50 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
3: EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

That was fast! If this recon is legit they'll probably do an update before 11.

They just did an update at 7pm CT. I doubt that they'll do another update unless there is additional information. 67 knots at 850 MB flight level is 61.64 mph, though, by my math. This thing could be a 'cane by the 2am ET intermediate advisory, if not sooner, at this rate.

ETA: WOAH! The new BAMM just got posted to WU... and it freaks me out! Has Rita tracking along the extreme south tip of the peninsula and continuing northwest toward the Louisiana Delta region... almost exactly where Katrina slammed into (albeit from a different angle). This is just one model and just one run of that model... but, OUCH!

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:24 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Here's those tracks you're talking about:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

BAM's not the best model..but it's not the worst either. Definately something to watch.

As for that partial eye wall and the windspeed (probably near 55-60kt now with 67kt flight level winds)...this thing's still a Tropical Storm. The pressure's only 1004mb. It "shouldn't" be showing any eyewall or winds anywhere near that high at that pressure. Hurricanes usually start down around 980mb in the Atlantic! Is this storm going to "break the rules" the way Katrina did and not do anything by the book? If so, we can throw the intensity models out the window and probably guess better...

--RC

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:29 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

how reliable is xtrap?

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:33 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Erm...XTP aka XTRAP aka "Extrapolation" is simply it's current heading shown out to 5 days

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:44 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Hello all, this might be a little of focus but I felt a need to post this..... I drove hwy 90 today from the west end of Biloxi to the east end... I saw only one house that was standing and perhaps habitable on the front beach during the entire trip... 99% of everything within a block of the beach is gone, completely, and in many areas the devastation goes two full blocks... on the east end of Biloxi, Point Cadet, where I roamed as a gangster (youngster) is beyond recognition.... I have never seen anything like this in my life, then again neither has anyone else... and its like this on the entire front beach and even worse as you go west towards Long Beach, Pass and the Bay.... this is so much worse than Camille its unimageable... I never ever thought I'd live to see the day that I see a storm much worse than Camille... but believe me, there is no comparison relative to the damage inflicted by Katrina's surge... I know for a fact it was at least 28 feet at my house based on debris marks on my Oak trees.... I had 5 feet of water in the second floor, and that's 33 feet above sea level... go figure....

we found our second story of our house entirely intact 1 block north of our lot, it had to travel about 400 yards thru trees and around gutted houses to get to its final resting place, the upper part of my fire place was still attached to the second floor and broke off when the second floor hit an oak tree which stopped it from going even further inland... its incredible that it was not destroyed and I was able to salvage some clothes for me and some very valuable mementoes for my kids... my storm shutters were still installed on two of the four windows and the windows were not even broken.....

another storm right now would not do much more damage to the front beach in Biloxi as everything that could possibly be damaged is gone... however, any kind of tropical system to impact New Orleans could be really bad.... due to the weakened condition of the levees... lets hope this system does not affect NO at all.... then again lets hope it does not affect anyone....

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:54 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Frank...glad to see that you are ok. I am very sorry about your house. I can't imagine what you are going through right now. I have thought about your predicament during this whole time and am glad to see that you are ok. We've talked about these things for the past couple of years and I never thought we would see such a nasty event such as Katrina so soon. I wish only the best for you and your family. Just think, when you rebuild you will have an even better view of the Gulf since you will probably have to elevate up one more story now. Unbelieveable mother nature is.

Lysis

(User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 12:55 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Yes, I suppose, if a scenario as unlikley as that were to happen, it would just add insult to injury, hamper recovery efforts, etc... but, as you said, there is really nothing left to destroy. People will probably never want to live in the area ever again though, if something like that were to come to pass.

I may be able to give a rudimentary answer to an earlier question about the central pressure: there is a lot of variance with pressure versus wind speed to begin with, and you really have to look at the surrounding barometric pressure and see how the storm makes a difference in contrast.

k___g

(Weather Guru)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:12 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

glad you are still here to speak about it. I can't even imagine...

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:24 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Wow...just wow.

I don't know you that much as I just started posting here this summer, Frank P, but I'm glad you're ok.

--RC

bigpapi

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:25 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Looks like two rapidly deepening systems. Rita may be more than expected for the Keys and South Florida. Those waters are unpredictable and rapid intensification is possible. Also Philippe's latest pressure by recon is down to 988. Looks like an interesting few days. I lived on Big Pine Key for a few years, I hope the many evacs over the past two years with no hits doesn't create a chicken little mentality down there.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:27 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

URNT12 KNHC 190111
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/00:23:40Z
B. 16 deg 17 min N
055 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1367 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 299 deg 060 kt
G. 198 deg 007 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 16 C/ 1516 m
J. 23 C/ 1515 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E12/20/15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SW QUAD 00:21:40 Z
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, OCCASIONAL MODERATE TURBULENCE
bumpy night for the AF guys!

pretty good drop in pressure for phil.... since estimated 5pm adv.

bigpapi

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:36 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Looking at the big blow up in convection for Rita. I'll tell you the area that storm is in bothers me a bit. If anyone is interested look at the track of the 35 Labor Day Hurricane. It formed in the same general area and was not a long tracker. I believe people are going to wake up tomorrow with little time to prepare for this. It also looks to be reforming a bit more north still.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:39 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Frank,

My sincerest sympathy to you and your entire family.

This is not spposed to make you feel any better, but this type of storm, as we all know from years of assumptions, analytics, research, and discussion, was inevetable.

It is only a matter of time until other major cities are completely destroyed - from Tampa Bay, to Miamia, to NYC. It is not a matter of "if", but "when". It might take 800 years or 4. We just don't know.

I wish you the most faith and toughness throughout this period. We all look to you for guidance and hope in this unforgetably arduos period.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:43 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

Looking at the big blow up in convection for Rita. I'll tell you the area that storm is in bothers me a bit. If anyone is interested look at the track of the 35 Labor Day Hurricane. It formed in the same general area and was not a long tracker. I believe people are going to wake up tomorrow with little time to prepare for this. It also looks to be reforming a bit more north still.

I'm not familiar with the 35 Labor Day Hurricane but I'll take your word for it. Rita has me very concerned, coming so soon on the heels of such devastation. It looks like the models are trending in a very bad way. The big blowout of cloud tops has calmed just a tad on the latest IR I've seen, but it's still alot better organized than it was a little over 2 hours ago.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:48 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Outflow to the south looking a lot better now on water vapor loop. Seems like the shear on that side of the storm must be relaxing. It will be interesting to see what happens when the outflow on the north side starts to run into that mass of dry air running SW to NE across the GOM and central Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

on the link you provided is the orange mist that runs horizontally across the state fron just south of ft myers to just north of cedar key dry air? or outflow? and is this what will keep the storm substantially south of ft. myers? Thanks!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:55 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

phil....may be a hurricane or near 75mph... recon reported 83kts flight level winds...
not positive, but think there flying at 10000ft.... not sure of formula they use to est. surface winds.

URNT14 KNHC 190112
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01147 10575 12523 11616 25013
02149 20574 22526 21616 99005
03151 30572 32528 31716 99005
04152 40570 42525 41616 99005
05154 50568 52527 51715 27012
06156 60566 62524 61714 29013
07158 70564 72515 71812 26017
08159 80562 82506 81717 30018
09161 90560 92473 91916 30030
MF162 M0559 MF060
OBS 01 AT 23:50:40Z
OBS 09 AT 00:19:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01165 10557 12460 11515 12073
02167 20555 22507 21515 12045
03168 30553 32522 31616 13035
04170 40551 42526 41615 13047
05172 50550 52533 51514 14040
06174 60548 62537 61615 12032
MF164 M0557 MF083
OBS 01 AT 00:29:20Z
OBS 06 AT 00:53:30Z
OBS 06 SFC WND /////
AF309 0317A PHILIPPE OB 07

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:55 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

The orange air is a sign of very dry air in the mid-levels. It is moving from the east-northeast to the west-southwest over the state along the SE side of a very strong ridge of high pressure; this will keep Rita moving more or less to the west and likely keep it south of peninsular Florida. By how much, however, is another question entirely. It could hit Cuba, or it could lash the Keys, or even go somewhere in between; we don't know quite yet.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

on the link you provided is the orange mist that runs horizontally across the state fron just south of ft myers to just north of cedar key dry air? or outflow? and is this what will keep the storm substantially south of ft. myers? Thanks!

The orange on water vapor indicates very dry air. Or at least that's my understanding. Will leave it to the much more informed mets on here to say whether that is what the NHC thinks would keep it on a more westerly track, but yes, I think that is at least part of it. As long as that is there, I think it shoves the storm to the west. Again, listen to the mets on here more than us amateurs. We get it right sometimes. But usually by accident.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 01:58 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Thank you Clark! Just a novice here..

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:02 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

If you look at a larger sat image covering more of the U.S. it appears that the VERY dry air is going to have a break in it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:03 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Quote:

If you look at a larger sat image covering more of the U.S. it appears that the VERY dry air is going to have a break in it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

I was just looking at the Rita WV loops and it appears that the air over the peninsula is already getting "less dry" if you will.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:09 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

none of these systems should affect me right, not even the rain of the remnants?.....jk and whats this i hear about poss. tropical cyclone developement in the next 36 hours on the 1-2-3 NHC Mariners Map?..has thta wave been names an invest yet and do people think it wil be our next TD-TS-HUR after Rita?

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:18 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Here you go, Hugh --

1935 Labor Day: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/createstorm.asp?stormnum=620&year=1935

Rita: http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gif

(Weather Analyst)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:21 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Ryan, it's Invest 97L and looks to be heading into the gulf:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

---

Also, look at the SST's that Rita's heading towards - wow - HOT: https://web1.navo.navy.mil/products/K10/moweryk10.gif

Here's an animated version with system position overlays: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+gif+10tttt+441+784+aor+sst

RC -- not so sure I'd say 97L is going into the Gulf...if it gets there, it's 10 days away. Perhaps you meant the Caribbean? --Clark

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Tropical Depression Eighteen Forms East of the Bahamas

Most of that slightly moister air is just that which has been moved into the region by the upper-level flow from old thunderstorm complexes to the west and from the daytime hours. You'll likely see the ridge "look drier" tomorrow morning; trust me, this ridge is pretty strong and not weakening in the least. As Rita moves a little further to the west, you'll see it start to accelerate some under the influence of the ridge. The thing that you see to "break" the ridge is a trough exiting the east coast of the US, largely the same one that got Ophelia yesterday. However, this trough will likely begin to lift out through time; it'll leave enough of a weakness to keep Philippe from turning back to the west during the forecast period, but should have little impact on Rita's track.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:30 AM

Hope there are no surprises, but...

I hope there are no surprises, but I think there might be. All the local forecasters are saying that we will get a little wind and rain and that's all. No one is paying any attention to this storm around here. If it keeps relocating further and further north we might wake up to a hurricane watch or warning with one day or less to prepare. Does look to be firing up tonight. Remember yesterday's discussion mentioned it could get to CAT. 2 before approaching Florida. I'll be staying up for the 11 p.m. and will be up again before the 5 a.m.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Sep 19 2005 02:39 AM

Re: Hope there are no surprises, but...

Quote:

I hope there are no surprises, but I think there might be. All the local forecasters are saying that we will get a little wind and rain and that's all. No one is paying any attention to this storm around here. If it keeps relocating further and further north we might wake up to a hurricane watch or warning with one day or less to prepare. Does look to be firing up tonight. Remember yesterday's discussion mentioned it could get to CAT. 2 before approaching Florida. I'll be staying up for the 11 p.m. and will be up again before the 5 a.m.

It briefly fired up but it looks to be subsiding a bit after the fire up, now anyway. I hope, if it comes that way, that people take heed. A northward jog toward the mainland would help the gulf coast because it would increase the likelihood of the storm weakening - but then Katrina went over quasi-land and look what IT did in the Gulf.

ETA:
at 11 PM EDT...0300z... the Hurricane Watch for the Florida Keys has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane Warning is now in
effect for all of the Florida Keys and Florida Bay from Ocean Reef
southward and westward to Dry Tortugas.

At 11 PM EDT... the tropical storm watch for the extreme
southeastern Florida Peninsula has been upgraded to a Tropical
Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch. A Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch are now in effect from Deerfield Beach southward to
Florida City and continuing westward to East Cape Sable.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Villa
Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del
Rio...and a tropical storm watch for the provinces of Ciego de
Avila...Sancti Spiritus...and Cienfuegos.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas. A
Hurricane Warning is recommended for the northwest Bahamas...
excluding Grand Bahama and Abaco Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Turks and Caicos
Islands...and for the southeast and central Bahamas.

At 11 PM EDT... a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
extreme southwestern Florida Peninsula from west of East Cape Sable
westward to Chokoloskee.

ETA2: Philippe is now officially a 75mph hurricane... no threat to land, thankfully.

danielw

(Moderator)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:10 AM

Re: Hope there are no surprises, but...

Hugh, thanks for the post. Due to the close proximity to FL and the Keys.
I'm going to repeat part of that bulletin in bold letters.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

..RITA MOVING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
..NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

AT 11 PM EDT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A
HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD TO
FLORIDA CITY AND CONTINUING WESTWARD TO EAST CAPE SABLE.

AT 11 PM EDT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE
WESTWARD TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

BillD

(User)

Mon Sep 19 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Hope there are no surprises, but...

I think that once the local mets read Stewart's 11:00PM discussion on Rita that they might not be so low key.

THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
EAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL
FIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY
EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS
REQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

This is one that could surprise us all.

Bill