(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 12:00 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Well what the?...I wake up and go look at the sat images and Stan has made a beeline for the SW overnight, and is likely to make landfall before the 10am advisory.

I estimated right on the intensity yesterday, but apparently for the wrong reason...after Stan left the shallow deep warm coastal waters, he continued to intensify, and looks to be still doing so.

Trying to understand this...Last night noticed a lot of convection curving along the coastline (part of a feeder band curving all the way around west of the storm, then north, then southeast past Cuba and bringing up Carribean warmth?), and this seems to have all merged into one big mass of convection with the storm, now. But this morning, looking at the sat image, also notice that overnight there was a lot of convection occuring on the west coast of MEX as well, and wondering if this is another feeder band that is curving in from the south and hooking up with the storm from the east. Is the storm obtaining some of its energy from the Pacific at this point? Also I'd assume the faster forward speed is a factor, preventing upwelling of cooler water under the warm SSTs.

edit -- reviewing the overnight stuff, NHC had to issue a special discussion at 1am to change the track, the speed, and the intensity.

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 12:44 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Just curious...woke up this morning to a lot of rain and a pretty good wind....is this because of the area in the Bahamas?

And....what are your thoughts on the possible strength of it? Just looking at the "spagetti models" it doesn't look good for those of us in Florida so I am curious if the conditions are good for strengethening or not.

Good grief.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Yes, its from the storm in the Bahamas, we had the same thing. I was just out and the winds are probably about 15-20 mph out of the east. Kind of nice out.

Scrappy

(Registered User)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:06 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

I dont think this storm has a chance of further strethening. It is encountering enourmous sheer in it's NE quadrant. This is also the area where all the convection is happening thus sapping all of it's instensity. It will mean increased rain for central and southern Florida but it's been dry lately, my lawn could use it.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:07 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Katie, from the Melbourne Weather:

"...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOWERING
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN AVERAGE WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND
25 MPH ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND AROUND 20 MPH INLAND. OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS WILL REACH 40 MPH ON THE BEACHES...35 MPH ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...AND AROUND 30 MPH INLAND...ESPECIALLY
NEAR PASSING HEAVY SHOWERS. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TODAY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA."

They have been predicting the winds for a few days now. However, I noticed today that they are saying the disturbance will also be responsible. Especially with the incoming squalls. I personally don't think there is much time for 92 to strengthen before it comes to Fl on the first trip. If it goes in the GOM and comes back then it may be a bigger problem. To early to tell though.

Jackie

tpratch

(Moderator)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:09 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Katie, it's covered in the news:

The wave over the Bahamas is moving gradually westward, and it may not develop before it reaches Florida. Much of the clouds and convection are east of the center, and it doesn't have all that much time to develop.
We'll be watching it however. It will likely be a rain event over central and south Florida, but there remains some question on if it will develop further.

I too woke up to rain, my sister going into labor, and my dad (recovering from surgery) needing me to take care of him today. More rain coming in off the coast now, and it should continue throughout the day.

I think we might see this area become a TD at best, but there is an outside shot that an LLC will develop under the ULL (or the current low circ will migrate) and we'll see TS Tammy. Time will tell and we should know a lot more by tonight.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

GOES 2 now has 92L

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

Much easier to see now.

Jackie

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 01:53 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Looks like a rainy few days ahead for the "Sunshine" state. We won't melt and many areas can actually use the rain.

Glad to see Stan heading inland and hope it doesn't affect too much of the population in Mexico. Stan is another one of the "named" storms that have not bothered the Continental U..S. Good good good.
We can have as many named storms as you like as long as they stay out to sea or stay South of the U.S.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Looks like Stan may be inland, or very very close to it.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 02:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Models on 92L are getting more spread out. Could be a much different system in terms of intensity if it hangs out in the Gulf for a while:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

That's my fear too. I'm afraid FL is going to get drenched as it goes west and then hit harder when and if it turns around. By the way, can anyone tell me where you see (if any) a circulation. I keep seeing one farther north of where the NHC has it. It almost looks like it moved closer to the convection. Can someone clarify it for me.

Thanks, Jackie

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Oct 04 2005 02:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

yeah, stan took a shortcut. good thing it did.. if it had remained over water and kept deepening like it was...
anyhow a lot of the models are keeping stan's remnants close enough to the BoC that it sort of 'redevelops' back over water. i don't quite buy into that... as the ctr will probably spend the next couple of days trying to cross mexico. whatever (if anything) tries to pop in behind it would probably be a new, wake system.
i'm thinking that calling the area from the bahamas down to puerto rico '92L' is an oversimpification. the actual low with 92L is around andros island, the big bahama island southeast of miami. it doesn't exactly have any convection at the center, but some really heavy stuff to the east. there's some shearing going on, but the trough is backing westward faster and you can see some diffluence in the convection to the north... so it ought to let up or become more supportive for convection. 92L should start actually developing sometime today. may be that another meso-low takes over in the convective region or that the convection finally builds to the center. either way, ought to be a tropical cyclone by some time tomorrow.. and very close to or over south florida. the rest of the convective area that 92L is a part of has potential to start trouble as well. note the weak low level turning north of hispaniola and the mid-level low near the virgin islands. either of these is a troublemaker if it becomes better defined. my take is that 92 will enter the eastern gulf as a broad, sloppy system, and get stuck as another low develops to the east and rides nw on its back flank... curving up the coast ahead of the trough coming later in the week (as advertised by more than half of the globals). from there 92 may follow suit or just drag around the gulf.... hard to say as it could be interacting with whatever is in stan's wake. centered around the weekend a trough is set in the northeast, but that pulls out in a lot of the modeling next week and if anything else is trying to come up it can get blocked by resurgent ridging. call it a week of unsettled weather for florida and the atlantic coastal plain.
worth noting that old td 19's remnant low is bursting convection and moving west under the ridge... behind the piece of that hybrid advertised last week that came west... and the little low from invest 91L the other day that is also coming in behind it. lot of the globals have been tracking the energy from this set of features westward and showing a low developing out of it near bermuda late in the week. they're firing convection again because an upper trough is deepening to the west (in the wake of the ridging just east of 92L) and is causing the flow to become diffluent over them, allowing some ridging to build. it's not a strongly probable thing, but it looks to me like that mess is still trying to use up another of the few remaining atlantic names. in my book the names end at wilma.. calling a tropical storm 'alpha' is desperation.
HF 1429z04october

hmmm.. ten year opal anniversary. i was 14 when that happened. time is flying.

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 02:59 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Thanks, now I feel like an idiot...I don't get to watch the news in the morning. I went from watching TWC and TODAY to ... The Wiggles and Dora...how pathetic is my life? I can sing a tune for you but I can't tell you what is going on around me. No wonder I say up for the 11 p.m. news..sometimes.

Okay, well, good to know this thing isn't going to be a monster. I assumed that what we were experiencing was from it but not completely sure. I know we don't need the rain. Parts of our County are still under water....can't be good.

Darn...It is really coming down right now too.

zmdz01

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Oct 04 2005 03:35 PM

Katrina

Mods:

I know this is off the current topic but I found it very interesting.

I found an article suggesting that Katrina was a Cat 3 storm when it hit the Louisiana coastline and was a Cat 1 while it was over Lake Ponchatrain.

Here is an excerpt from the article:
"New, preliminary information, compiled by hurricane researchers, suggests the system struck southeast Louisiana on Aug. 29 with peak-sustained winds of 115 mph. That would have made it a Category 3 storm, still a major hurricane but a step down from the enormous destructive force of a Category 4.

Katrina might have further downgraded to a strong Category 1 system with 95-mph winds, when it punched water through New Orleans' levees, severely flooding most of the city and killing hundreds. The levees were designed to withstand a Category 3 storm."

Here is the link for the full article:

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/breaking_news/12813868.htm

it's sort of splitting hairs. i really doubt that the spot winds in the eastern eyewall.. which didn't go over any of the listed areas, were at 145mph. the western eyewall had a good bit of decay when it came in and the strong winds probably weren't mixing to the ground. i'm not sure if the guys who published the article really got the gist of what the HRD guys were trying to say... though i could be mistaken. suffice to say it would be very odd to have a hurricane with a 920mb central pressure and 115mph winds. or rather stupid. -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 03:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

As we are getting closer and closer to the possibility that we'll have named storms past the letter "W" (only "Tammy," "Vince," and "Wilma" are left), the idea of using Greek letters seems more and more ludicrous; what are they going to do if "Alpha" turns out to be a storm name that would need to be retired? I can't see that in the history books anyway: Hurricane Alpha. Loved the comment a couple days ago ("Beta decay, Delta change...") The world has not run out of names. Why not create a 7th list of "reserve" names that could be used every year, and would serve in this situation, with the same rules as the original six lists (retire a name if necessary and replace it with another name). It wouldn't even have to be a complete list; it would only have to have 5-10 names on it (can't wrap my mind around what a busier season than this one would be like!). They keep saying we may have 10-20 more years before we're out of this active period. Imagine comptemplating the use of Alpha and Beta every year or so, down the road until we're all ready to retire...ugh.

edit -- just looked at the sat images for Stan...it looks like the lopsided convection resulted in a pivot at landfall, and the path of the center has curved more south, and was going almost due south the past hour. If it goes SSW instead of SW, then the upper level remnants of the storm will be in the Pacific even sooner.

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 04:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Well I was not crazy about FL's possible involvement with the then very early models on 9-30-05, and certainly not happy if any of what increasingly seems to be the model consensus comes to fruition. It appears that some of the models are merging remnants of Stan and "92L" and looping them back into the west coast. Of course, time will tell and as we have all seen this year and in many past, things can change in a hurry. Just had a quick squall move through Tampa, winds around 15 gusting to 23.

dave foster

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 04:19 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Hurricane Stan made landfall 15 miles norheast of Tuxtla, Mexico as a category 1. This area looks to be more or less uninhabited on Google Earth, but maybe that's because the developers have been slow at getting around to Mexico. It also looks to be pretty flat here so Stan might go a bit longer than one would expect, maybe even make it to the other side.

Check Stan's track with Google Earth on my site.

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 04:54 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

The latest visible satellite loops are beginning to show a possible LLC developing between Andros Is & Eleuthera Is in the Bahamas. Also, banding features are beginning to develop on the East & Northeast side.Looks like the shear will keep it in check for now, but would not be surprised to see it develop into at least a TD before it reaches the FL east coast .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html

TG

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:02 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I was just about to post the same thing Tropics Guy....this is a very interesting development, and I think we will have at least a TD before it gets to the peninsula, maybe a TS if the shear continues to relax. It is also moving slowly to perhaps the NW currently. Ed D. & mets, what do you think about this area east of Andros Island??

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:17 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

There wont be a TD until T-Storms consolidate around a defined center, maybe in couple days in the gulf.

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:20 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

hard to say. a lot of vorticity will be getting over into the gulf in the coming days, and that loopy system shown on certain models is possible (origin doesn't appear perfectly tropical the way the models show it, something to note). while that's crossing and to the west there are vorticity maxes in under the upper ridge east of the state which may close off... i'm suspecting one will that rides up the east coast of florida. another may originate further southeast and head more to the north. worth noting that the gfs tracks the gulf system back across florida, then stalls it off the southeast coast, has it looking subtropical, and then brings it back west to the southeast after ten days. if that ridge rebuilds over the northeast next week we'll be dealing with a meandering tropical system for some time.
HF 1720z04october

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:28 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Hi All,
Where can I find the GFS model?
Also, is the thinking that that there will be 2 systems, one affecting the East Coast and One on the West coast?
Just getting a little confused

Thanks

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:30 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

agreed Hank,, right now the models dont really seem to know exactly what to make of everything with each model having its own ideas. Example is the Nogaps wants to bring stan back into the BOC in 48 hours and make it a hurricane in 72. Kinda doubt that but its not out of the question.....but they agree that something may develop in the gulf in a couple days near 28N and 85W and take it across the big bend and N florida and off Jacksonville over the weekend. It might get interesting off the Fl, GA boarder next week but probably just meander then get pushed out to sea mid week on next adv trof,,afterall its Mid Oct by then. I would still watch the remenents of Stan to see where and if it wants to come up more like the Nogaps but slightly further east. IF so with the next week trof coming down, that might be the kicker thru florida. Am I hinting at 2 systems this weekend or early next week? Yes but of course not sure.
Anyways with the system in the Bahamas, the wave axis is from Cuba near 21N 81W ne to 26N 76W. There is no circulation at this time....the lowest pressures of near 1006mb are in that axis and closer to the Fl Straits nearing the keys by this evening. Should be in the gulf by tomorrow. I say by Thurs we will have a TD or TS, but I think again recon will be cancelled tomorrow unless the wave gets a defined center overnight with TS developing near the center.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 05:47 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Agreed. The best thing for development for 92L would be for Stan to continue moving inland and to weaken; right now, the outflow jet from Stan is shearing the wave from the west. The broad area of low pressure is currently located between Andros Island and the Florida Peninsula, well-removed from the strongest convection. Something may be trying to organize in the mid-levels a bit further north and east just west of the deepest convection but will take some time to do so. Unless something develops in a hurry today, which I just can't see right now, recon will likely get canceled for tomorrow if only because the entire complex should be moving over land. It's important to not just focus on this one area as well -- some of the energy is going to get tied up further north in the Gulf Stream near where Ophelia did her number a few weeks ago and the entire complex stretches back to the south and east toward Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Needless to say, it's going to be a very wet one across Florida tomorrow with the potential for something more in the NW Gulf on Thursday. Best call...stay tuned.

hurricane expert

(Really Not an Expert)

Tue Oct 04 2005 06:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Check out the new GFDL model it takes it right into the heart of the florida penninsula.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 06:25 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

and its not out of the realm of possibilty that we get 4 storms break off this wave and one head right up the west coast of florida like the cmc shows one then also there can be a second one like the bam shows that could hit the panhandle at the same time,when also the wave split off a low that would spin its way up to N.O. and then all at the same time another one per the gfs spin off and go to texas,while all the while the remains of stan per nogaps comes back out and gets back to a cat 5 storm all the while sucking all the other systems up and taking out the east coast of florida then ride up the west coast of floirda then turn back and go to N.O then head over to Brownsville (they dont want to be left out this season) then cross back over florida and back ino the Atlantic and Ride right up the east coast of the US all the way to NY then out to sea.

Could this happen? if you put all the models together they have something going everywhere since as the local Met said they don't do very good with Waves that are not even a TD yet.So when i read all these diferent hypo's i have to laugh at them as much as my forcast.

Now if you remove mine you need to remove them all since we don't even have a storm and i did use each model.As scott so greatly says in his posts....Do i think this is going to happen? no i did not say that but 0.000000001 chance so if it does ill be able to say see i told you so.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:07 PM

The odd chance event

I agree... trying to forecast anything at the moment is nigh impossible at this point. I won't say we're quite stabbing in the dark, as most people agree something is going to happen... but what?

I think there is a chance (not big, but a chance) tht you could see something form in the gulf, something shoot up the east coast, and something linger near Puerto Rico. That many storms will get in each other's ways however, so there'd be somewhat limited development. (unless the east coast system shoots off, and the Gulf storm were to sit and spin so to speak, while the pureto rico storm took a slow wnw track...

Probably won't happen, but I can see a set up where that's a possibility

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:09 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

very funny ralph, you forgot that it will then hook back NW towards lake erie and stall and give cleveland 80mph winds for 3 days.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:09 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Buoy 41010, located about 120 miles east of Cape Canaveral, recently reported sustained winds of 29 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Given the tight pressure gradient that seems to be in place north of 92L, anything that organizes enough to be deemed tropical would have a good chance of producing minimal tropical storm force winds almost immediately. In some sense, it is a tropical storm waiting to happen, but there is no guarantee of tropical organization before it reaches Florida and no strong indication of anything like that so far.

Unless there is an unexpected rapid increase in organization, the actual weather dealt to to Florida would likely not be much different whether or not it happens to become classified as a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:11 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Quote:

very funny ralph, you forgot that it will then hook back NW towards lake erie and stall and give cleveland 80mph winds for 3 days.

What, you mean the hurricane it develops over Lake Superior isn't going to repel the other four sections of the wave, allowing one of them to come north into Lake Erie?

(Sorry - couldn't resist

)

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:19 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Something like that....

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 07:22 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

OK, now that you guys are finished being silly will someone please tell me where the circulation is? Is there one? I can't find it. Don't use island names as a referance either. I don't want to get out the map....ROFL! Lat-lon will do just fine.

Jackie

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:04 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

The apparent surface circulation (not sure if it is completely closed or not) appears to be around 25N, 79W at the moment. It is not far from the Florida coast.

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:09 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

This is from the 205 discussion. from the NHC.

1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACCOMPANIES A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 23.5N 78W ABOUT
20 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND.......

or click on link then click NWS fronts on the top left, it will show you.
edit: top right not left
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-rgb-loop.html

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:16 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I don't see it developing anytime soon. It's a broad area of low pressure that has a few weak surface lows.For something to form the shear would have to relax and if it does it won't last long. Most of the convection right now is getting blown off to the NE. The way it looks now is most of the heavy rain will be to my north in central Fl but as it passes by Miami then the convection could come back on me.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:25 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

There is no evidence on the VIS loop of a surface low at the location that was specified in the TWD. The apparent turning in the VIS is further north from that location. For what it's worth, the intial position of 92L in the 18Z SHIPS run was specified as 24.8N, 78.7W.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Looks like 92L if it gets into the Gulf will head up to Florida. How many more storms do you guys think
there will before the season is over?Beaumont did not get a lot of media coverage but was damaged rather extensively.
We have power now but many areas do not. So many trees down. I was told it looked like a war zone right after the storm.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Tue Oct 04 2005 08:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

This is a link to spaghetti models:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
and this is the intensity for the same systems:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

Question: What tracking models are the intensity ones tied to? Seems like they would be radically different on a track that would spend a lot of time over water than over land.??

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:03 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I'm just not seeing it. The only rotation I can find, (if it is a rotation) starts at 25N/77W. Then I lose it. Is that a rotation that I'm seeing? I certainly can't find anything where the 1006mb symbol is located. ughhh...

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:11 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

to my eye.... 92L (invest) may have reformed more to the west... or there may be two spins... i follow the one off of miami... but then i catch what i think is something new on the west side of the tip of florida.... just north of Key west.. i see what looks like a rotation in the lower clouds.... i am currently looking at obs to see what the surface reports are in that area.... it looks like there is two rotation areas at the surface on floater #2 sat... and BOTH are weak.... one thing is for sure to me.... FLORIDA is about to get soaked! (lots of rain)

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:20 PM

latest TWO

From the latest TWO:

A SHARP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
... A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SPREADING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...
INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:34 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I also noted some weak cyclonic turning in the area of the Keys and the pressures are low in that area, but that does not seem to be the main feature of interest right now. The shear is quite high in that area right now.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of low try to spin up further east, closer to the flare up of convection in the NW Bahamas. Based on the convective pattern, there seems to be a pocket of upper-level divergence and lower shear in that area.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:37 PM

Re: latest TWO

You can now see the mountainous terrain of Mexico cutting into Stan's circulation on the visual and wv sat images. I saw this with Emily and thought it was neat...looks like someone sticking their hand up under a tablecloth that's being pulled along. If you need a little diversion (hey, it is 4:30pm) check it out.

Also, huge blooms of convection on the outflow both across the Yucatan and on the west coast of Mexico.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:57 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Poor HPC, they seem as confused as the rest of us...LOL:

PASSAGE OF ANOTHER DAY HAS DONE LITTLE TO IMPROVE THE CONFIDENCE OF THE FCST. EVOLUTION OF THE FEATURE INITIALLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS
REMAINS IN DOUBT... WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING THAT A PORTION OF
THIS FEATURE MAY BREAK OFF AND SUPPORT A FRONTAL WAVE THAT TRACKS
NEAR THE EAST COAST BY FRI-SAT... WITH REMAINING ENERGY HEADING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SUPPORT ANOTHER SFC LOW WHICH COULD
MEANDER OVER THE SERN GULF FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD OR BE PICKED
UP THE THE SFC FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD... THE 00Z GFS IS ON ITS OWN WITH THE EXTENT TO WHICH IT
PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE EXTREME SE... WITH OTHER MDLS
KEEPING LOWER SFC PRESSURES ALONG THE SE COAST.

Our house was to be painted tomorrow. Looks like next week for that.

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 09:58 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Storm Hunter - maybe you (or someone/anyone) can answer this query. I'm pasting a snippet from the 2pm disco from my area - what is WSETA? Maybe a model only the forecasters get to use and not available to the general public? Curious that they say it does so well and I've never heard of it.

GIVEN HOW WELL THE TROPICAL WSETA DID WITH THE LAST FEW STORMS IN
THIS GENESIS AREA...STILL DO NOT WANT TO GO CATEGORICAL WITH RAIN
CHANCES ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE. SHUD THE LOW STAY OVER ON THE EAST
COAST...RAIN BANDS WILL DRY OUT AS THEY PUSH ACROSS THE STATE AND
ALL WE WILL GET IS SOME GUSTY SHOWERS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE HAD THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE GFS AND NAM SOLN VERIFY...WE WILL BE IN
FOR A RAINY REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE DEALING WITH A POTENTIAL
HYBRID LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

Here's the link if you care to read the whole thing.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=TBWAFDTBW&version=0

p.s. got our first "squall" a while ago. interesing - very blowy. >

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Oct 04 2005 10:18 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I found some things for it on the web...tried "WSETA model" in google. It is an NCEP model.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 10:34 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

I beleive the ETA model has been renamed to the NAM model. I may be wrong but I beleive I read it somewhere else. If I find it I will post it.

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 11:03 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Hi,
Can someone please give the coordinates for 92L..Because what I thought was 92L does not look like it will make it to the GOM without crossing the state first.
Thanks in advance,
Chrisitine

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Oct 04 2005 11:21 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Thanks Margie!

I didn't think to do that. duh! Too many things going on in my life right now.
Looks like everything is being pulled to the north from 92L. Wonder if he was right about the east coast hugging thing?
Well, I wished for rain - we only got a little so far. I have to drive quite a ways on Thursday for a meeting - hope the weather isn't too bad. I'm sure it will be interesting the next few days.

BTW - the local met said that the rain chance will go down to 20/30 percent on Monday? and that changes more often than my moods lately.

(don't go there guys)

Hope no one has flooding from this.

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 11:28 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Should be somewhere around 24.8N 78.7W according the the navy site.

danielw

(Moderator)

Tue Oct 04 2005 11:32 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

WSETA...Wind shear version of the ETA???

I managed to catch Dr Lyons Trop Update about 90 minutes ago.
While all eyes are on the tropical wave positioned off of the FL East Coast. He pointed out that there is a middle to upper level Low over the NE GOM, near Cedar Key. This Low is expected to merge/ mingle/ mix, with the tropical wave. The Low is easily seen on current Water Vapor imagery.
Dr Lyons also pointed out that a cool front moving through the TX OK Panhandle area, should pickup the Low and move it NE...inland.

The cool front that Dr Lyons referred to is presently stirring up quite a bit of convection in the Plains.
The remnants of E Pac Hurricane Otis have moved into the SW Plains and are responsible for the very unusual, moist tropical air in place.

note:With the NE GOM Low's current proximity to the coast. And the premise (not promise) of the frontal passage picking up the Low. I, personally wouldn't give it any number higher than a 4 out of 10 for development.
But I'm not a MET, I haven't looked at the models in a few days or more...and I didn't stay at Holiday Inn Express last night.~danielw

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Tue Oct 04 2005 11:42 PM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Thanks

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:10 AM

WS ETA

In searching the web, I found the WS stands for "Work Station." Seems that this is a program available for local WFOs (I think Weather Forecasting Offices) to aid in local modelling. Quite frankly, the few things I read were way over this poor boy's head. Perhaps Clark or one of the other mets can elaborate.
Note to mods: Okay to move this to another forum site since it is off topic.

jusforsean

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 AM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Could somebody please get this all straight for me. From what i can see, 92l is pounding us here in south florida thru the weekend as a tropical wave with little chance of it strengthing much.
next: Stan over Mexico, is it me or does it look like stan is going to be heading back this way???
last but not least whats with the disturbance over Puerto Rico>>
Anything else i am missing here??
thanks

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:22 AM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Currently a recipient of the lovely convection over the plains. Knew it was coming because we've had two weird days of muggy 80-degree weather (it'll be a high of 48 tomorrow I think). Drove through some serious rain just now, am home south of Mpls (on radar, where you see the two freeways meet in a V shape) with lots and lots of lightning, radar looks like a line coming through in just a couple minutes.

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:24 AM

8pm obs

looks like a the eastern side of the broad surface low is trying to tighten up in the midst of the northern bahamas near some deep convective bursts. that may be the system finally starting to focus. not sure yet, just eyeballing it. i've been agitating for something of the like for more than a week, so maybe i'm reading too much into it.
there's more of all this mess working over into the gulf. think the loopy low is overdone in that the upper low there would take time to transition.. if there is a low it'll be stuck next to it and weak. not sold on that ticket. more likely that another low pressure area will form in the leavings of stan, where there is some ridging aloft and plentiful convergence. stan itself is about halfway across mexico, on to sample the pacific.
don't disregard the area near puerto rico, either. there is some low level turning and a good bit of ridging aloft.
globals are all over the place, but mostly in agreement that we'll have one tropical system go up the east coast, and then another or two meandering near around the gulf/western atlantic. very active span we're in, that looks like it will spill over into next week.
of course maybe ralph is right and its just a bunch of rain. right.
HF 0024z05october

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 01:10 AM

Re: 8pm obs

HankFrank, what are the odds that that ball of convection will go north. It looks to be making it's way in that direction. Is there something that will force it on a more westerly route or might we get lucky?

Thanks, Jackie

dave foster

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 01:40 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Quote:

It also looks to be pretty flat here so Stan might go a bit longer than one would expect, maybe even make it to the other side.

Not quite right that one - I forgot to look on the west side where there's the huge Oaxaca mountain range going up to over 8000ft in places; more than enough to put a serious dent in Stan's progress....

Check the site for the latest.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 02:37 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

i don't think it will take much to get a TS.... Wed. might be the day...

latest TWOAT

RADAR DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS NOT FORMED YET WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE
WHICH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A RAPID DEVELOPMENT BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TOMORROW. PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION ON POSSIBLE LOCAL HAZARDS...INCLUDING FLOOD WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 02:48 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

The lowest pressure I can find (1007 mb) is at a C-Man station on Grand Bahama island, which corresponds with what was mentioned in the TWO. There does seem to be something trying to form closer to the convection in that area. The area of lowest pressure extends into south Florida and the Keys, where winds are light at the moment... this is probably a reflection of the surface feature we were following earlier that has moved further west. So far, there has been only the slightest hint of cyconic turning on the Miami radar associated with the deeper convection over the NW Bahamas.

Sounds like they are ready to pull the trigger as soon as there is any evidence to close off the circulation.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

Still some amazingly cold cloud tops continue in the convection being generated by Stan, both in the part of the circulation that has moved out over the Pacific, and in the feeder band over the Yucatan.

GOES floater 1 has been repositioned to where Stan is heading in the Pacific, so I would assume that NHC thinks something is going to continue cooking once the remnants of Stan are all offshore. That offshore area does not have the same heat potential as the Carribean, but a little ways offshore to the west at 15N 100W is a pocket of slightly warmer water (looks like the only one).

Stan seems to be on a steady course, not like what I remember the models had anticipated. It seems like so far the upper level circulation has held up quite well. So it will be interesting to see the next model runs and the 10pm NHC discussion, to see if there is still a good possibility of something coming back into the GOM.

edit -- just read the 10pm...looks like I was too optimistic for Stan's remnants, as NHC forecasts it will dissipate.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 03:08 AM

Re: 92L Spinning up

Looks like it's spinning up now. A clear eye showing on the Radar, water Vapor and Infared for the last hour or so. That stuff coming across the state looks like it's letting up.

Oh, it'll be a tropical storm tomorrow alright, if not a hurricane...

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 03:30 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

The discussion did state that Stan could regenerate over the Pacific, but the official forecast calls for dissipation.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 04:37 AM

Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave

I've thrown up some thoughts on the blogs -- accessible on the main page or via the forums. I figure we'll probably get Tammy out of the mess near 26N/78W as it heads in the general direction of Jacksonville over the next couple of days. It's going to continue to be a wet time period for the entire Florida peninsula and Georgia coastline over the next couple of days, no matter what happens. Some further development is possible, but not a lot given the slight shearing environment and just above marginal SSTs...figure moderate to high-end TS at best. Not too bullish on anything else out there in the next 4 or 5 days or so for reasons I mention in the blog post, but it all bears watching. Essentially, it's one fine mess out there.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 05 2005 09:44 AM

Looks Like We Might Have Tammy

Here's an excerpt from the 5:30am TWO:

Quote:

Radar data and surface observations indicate that a closed surface circulation has formed just off the coast of east-central Florida... within the large area of disturbed weather extending from Florida eastward across the northern Bahamas. A tropical cyclone is forming... and advisories will be initiated shortly with a special advisory. A reconnaissance aircraft will be available to investigate this system later today.

With the winds already reported with this system, will they upgrade to Tammy...or list this as TD #21??

--Lou

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 09:52 AM

Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy

You can see the center of circulation quite plainly now on the tropical cyclone about 40 miles East of Melbourne, Florida now.

Again interesting how this year, several storms have been born in the area of the Bahama's.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

danielw

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:00 AM

92L maintains and Stan moves toward the E. Pacific

I updated the main Page with some snippets from the 2 AM EDT Trop. Wx Discussion.

Main item is 92L. Several areas of low pressure around the FL Peninsula. Upper low in the NE GOM. While a surface low is over the Bahamas.
Latest surface observation indicate Vero Beach has the lowest pressure...1005.0mb. Also of note was the difference in the wind directions just N of Vero Beach. While Melbourne has winds from the ESE, the winds at Vero Beach are from the NW.

Latest satellite imagery indicating the upper low over the NE GOM is attempting to close off. Trailing convection westward to the mid GOM, south of Terrebone Bay,LA.
Outflow from the remnants of Tropical Depression Stan are producing wind shear and appear to be delaying the closing off.
AFRES RECON is scheduled for a 10:30AM EDT investigation today...providing it isn't called off by NHC/TPC. Close proximity to land will occasionally result in a cancellation of a flight.

While I was composing this. Lou and Wxwatcher2 posted some more up-to-date information.~danielw

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:32 AM

Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy

Quote:

With the winds already reported with this system, will they upgrade to Tammy...or list this as TD #21??
--Lou

Based upon the NHC TWO... It will be directly designated as T.S. Tammy shortly. I say this because the TWO said a Tropical Cyclone had formed - it did not say a Tropical Depression. They may not yet know how strong the maximum winds are, and may wait until recon is in before naming it, however.

Chad Myers is saying it will run up the east coast - which is contrary to ALL of the computer models the last time I checked (which all forecast it to enter the GOM and basically hit me, or come close to me and then head back NE across the state again). Looking at the current models for 92L on WU, they show it moving parrallel to the coast but on shore.. except for NOGAPS which has it moving into the central GOM. NONE of them have it hitting Georgia (which is what Chad said it would do). What the heck was he basing his forecast on???

By the way... the movement on radar appears to be very slow, but WNW to my eyes (or due west as Daniel pointed out after my initial post). It may make landfall near Melborne before the NHC gets around to sending a plane into it... circulation looks VERY close to land. Any word on where the warnings will be put up for, or what the forecast track officially will be?

Added: From the MLB NWS office:
NOW...
...TROPICAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF MELBOURNE...
AT 545 AM...MELBOURNE RADAR DETECTED THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER 30 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE. THE CIRCULATION WAS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.

Well so much for what my eyes were tellijng me about a due west/wnw motion, I guess. And where is the advisory on this thing? NHC TWO said 30 minutes ago that there would be a special advisory issued shortly. Weather Channel just said that the hurricane hunters found a circulation - but TWO said they were just standing by, not that they had even gone into the system! Is everyone on a different page with this thing???

danielw

(Moderator)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:34 AM

Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

You can see the center of circulation quite plainly now on the tropical cyclone about 40 miles East of Melbourne, Florida now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

The circulation center is moving nearly due west. And should move into the Melbourne area in the next few hours.
This puts everyone in the Northern Peninsula in the right front quadrant...so to speak.
Cloud tops ESE of Melbourne have peaks above 50,000ft. At this time, and will rotate around the circulation.
Jacksonville NWS Office has issued advisories for "gusty winds of up to 50 mph". Valid until 715AM EDT. These warnings will probably be extended.

Please pay close attention to your Local NWS Office for later watches and warnings.~danielw
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mlb/
http://www.srh.weather.gov/jax/
http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

ummmmm. Folks - the Navy site lists 21L Tammy!

:?:

Here's the link
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

amonty

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

I was watching the news and all the channels are saying it is now tropical storm Tammy.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 10:56 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

I was watching the news and all the channels are saying it is now tropical storm Tammy.

Which channels? None of the national ones are saying anything about the strength yet... except for calling it a depression. Myers (CNN) even said it was "very disorganized which is why it's not a tropical storm". We all knew last night that the only thing preventing the NHC from calling this Tammy was the lack of a closed circulation, though.
And Hoottowl... NWL Monterey still shows it as 92L.

amonty

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:01 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

local news channels in Orlando - WFTV 9
FOX-35 News Channel3

I was just watching as I am typing and the met. for the channel
said it won't be "official" until 7:30.

amonty

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:02 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

there is a center of circulation just east of Melbourne

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:04 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

local news channels in Orlando - WFTV 9
FOX-35 News Channel3

I was just watching as I am typing and the met. for the channel
said it won't be "official" until 7:30.

National news (CNN, TWC) is not saying squat at the top of the hour. If the official advisory is due at 7:30 ET, it's probably because they want a recon fix (I assume), to make sure it's a T.S.

Now I'm seeing northward movement on the MLB radar.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:15 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Im in Melbourne about 2 miles inland and there is a little rain but no wind. Not even a breeze. I haven't heard anything about advisories yet. We have a weather alert and it's stll silent.

Jackie

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:21 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

If the shear stops, and it doesn't hit land, "if", it's a hurricane by this afternoon. Amazing how quickly it's moved north.

The NHC has repeatedly underestimated the hurricanes this year, including this one.

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:25 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

If the shear stops, and it doesn't hit land, "if", it's a hurricane by this afternoon. Amazing how quickly it's moved north.

The NHC has repeatedly underestimated the hurricanes this year, including this one.

The NHC has not repeatedly underestimated hurricanes this year.

OrlandoDan

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:29 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

It's official. We have Tammy just off the coast of Cocoa. I am here in Longwood, FL, just northwest of Orlando, and it is raining pretty hard right now.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:30 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

They underestimated Katrina and Rita. Both were supposed to be 3 maybe 4 before they hit the Gulf. They were 5's. They just underestimated Stan too, but couldn't be too far off since it hit land.

It's now officially Tropical Storm Tammy. Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending an airplane into. Mercifully, it's close to land and won't hit category 5 to embarrass them further.

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:33 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Here are some good local links to view:
Local Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

Bouy 20 NM off shore:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009

Lsr1166

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:38 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

WTNT31 KNHC 051121
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH
OF THE BAHAMAS.

AT 730 AM EDT...1130Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:42 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

What an interesting pattern we're in! I know the attention is on T.S. Tammy right now, but let me throw this in the mix. Remember how the models had something spinning off of Stan a few days ago and heading NE. Take a look at the convective energy moving away, to the NE, from the remnants of Stan. All of the models are still developing something in the GOM in a couple days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 05 2005 11:54 AM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

It's now officially Tropical Storm Tammy. Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending an airplane into. Mercifully, it's close to land and won't hit category 5 to embarrass them further.

Unless (until?) it crosses the coast and gets into the GOM, that is... which of course it's not forecast to do because they say it's moving NNW. I guess the people looking at the radar are blind.

The NHC has done a remarkable job this year in forecasting the tracks of hurricanes, though, so maybe the computer models which are showing a NNW movement will be right again. Of course, very few of them were showing the NNW movement 24 hours ago, but that was before there was a closed circulation. Time will tell.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:02 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

It's already close enough to land to limit it. And yes, the NHC has predicted the paths better than last year, but they keep saying a 5 will be a 3. Underestimated Stan, underestimated Tammy, something new is going on that they don't understand.

Part of the reason it was such a tragedy in New Orleans is that the NHC so badly underestimated Katrina, until it actually hit a category 5. Yeah, after it hit 5, they paniced, but it was no big deal as it entered the Gulf.

Considering how one would expect them to err on the side of caution, they are totally clueless about what's making the hurricanes so strong.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:09 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Tammy is simply a small tropical storm. I really doubt it will ever make it to hurricane status.

I know it's been a busy season with lots of damage in the Gulf Coast.
The NHC has done an excellent job. they've been watching this current disturbance for days and sent planes in at the right time and upgraded to Tropical Storm Tammy.
Last night around 9pm I could see a center of circulation on radar over Grand Bahama Island.
But to give the NHC grief over this is silly.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:15 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

It's already close enough to land to limit it. And yes, the NHC has predicted the paths better than last year, but they keep saying a 5 will be a 3. Underestimated Stan, underestimated Tammy, something new is going on that they don't understand.

Part of the reason it was such a tragedy in New Orleans is that the NHC so badly underestimated Katrina, until it actually hit a category 5. Yeah, after it hit 5, they paniced, but it was no big deal as it entered the Gulf.

Considering how one would expect them to err on the side of caution, they are totally clueless about what's making the hurricanes so strong.

That's exactly what the NHC does on intensity they estimate. The science is not available to predict intensity accurately yet and they are the first to admit that fact. They do remarkably well with the track forecast however.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Well, yeah, giving them grief over this, considering how they botched Katrina, is pretty thin soup. Not likely this one will kill a lot of people.

Last night I guaranteed it would be a tropical storm today, if not a hurricane. Unless it heads inland, it will be a hurricane by 5pm. Really ramping up in the last hour.

Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending out an airplane.

It's easy making an accurate prediction about strength. Just add two levels to whatever the NHC predicts.

it didn't exist last night. the nhc has done a better job forecast this year than anyone else. none of your comments are qualified, you're just randomly throwing mud at people. -HF

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:20 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

"That's exactly what the NHC does on intensity they estimate."

Underestimate. Almost every time. The absolute last thing you would want to do.

Before they always used to overestimate. Something new is going on that they don't understand. This is clear.
well, you'd better call them and tell them what to set the intensity at, and quit complaining to us. -HF

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:23 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Tammy's discussion is up:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200521.disc.html

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Wed Oct 05 2005 12:37 PM

Re: Severe Weather Possible

Quote:

Well, yeah, giving them grief over this, considering how they botched Katrina, is pretty thin soup. Not likely this one will kill a lot of people.

Last night I guaranteed it would be a tropical storm today, if not a hurricane. Unless it heads inland, it will be a hurricane by 5pm. Really ramping up in the last hour.

Last night, the NHC didn't know if it was worth sending out an airplane.

It's easy making an accurate prediction about strength. Just add two levels to whatever the NHC predicts.

Let me point something out: NHC does not predict Cat 4 and 5 generally. Why? Becuase the SHIPS model is a statistical model based from a decade long survey, and there were so few Cat 4 and 5 storms during that time that, simply speaking, they don't know what makes a system go from Cat 3 to Cat 4 or Cat 4 to Cat 5, or retain Cat 5 strength. Generally, if you see any prediction of Cat 3 or Cat 4 from NHC, you should immediately say "It's a major hurricane that could be anything from Cat 3 through Cat 5, depending on exact conditions."

GFDL model does a better job predicting strong storms, but it isn't consistant - one run makes a TS a Cat 5 in 24 hours and the next run dissipates it. How can you make an educated guess as to what a system is going to do when the models are so erratic?

The time averaged GFDL intensity is generally about the same as the SHIPS intensity, and both poorly predict anything over Category 3 or weak Category 4 storms.

You can't blame the NHC - they only work with the best models out there. Storms have always had a mind of their own - the intensity is purely a guess. Ever taken a look at the intensity charts NHC puts out? You'll notice that most systems that reach Cat 2 have a chance of hitting the Cat 4+ range, though generally fairly low. It's just like track: don't just follow the centerline.

--RC