MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:03 PM |
Wilma Moving Northwest
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3 AM Update
Wilma showing a slight, 1mb drop in pressure, between 1 and 3 AM EDT. Minor increase in her wind speed. Biggest change has been in her heading. Now estimated to be near NNW.
8PM Update
Wilma has winds sustained around 150MPH, and is still moving northwest at 8. It appears that a landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula near Cozumel is likely, bringing near high end category 4 conditions to the resort area that has already been hit by Emily earlier this year. It is still possible for Wilma to just graze the Yucatan, the overnight hours will tell this story.
The GFDL model suggests it may slow or stall out over the Yucatan bringing prolonged bad conditions to the Cozumel and Cancun areas. This would be better for Florida (relatively a cat 2 or 3 hurricane still would likely approach and cause a lot of havoc), but very very bad for those towns. Time will tell here, watching the Cancun Radar for movement may be an extended exercise, if the radar holds. This may slow the eventual Florida impact by another day or two into Monday or even Tuesday if this verifies.
It may start to head more toward the north northwest as well, and miss the Yucatan to the east, this is what we are watching for tonight.
Original Update
Hurricane Wilma is moving Northwest, still a Category 4 hurricane this afternoon. This update is mainly to clear the responses and to start a new discussion.
However, many are asking where in Florida Wilma will strike, meteorologist Ed Dunham in the met blog below talks about it some, but I am holding off until Wilma enters the Gulf.
The National Hurricane Center's forecast is pretty solid, but the cone is large for Florida. Anywhere along the western coast of Florida still needs to watch this system.
Wilma looks to be poised to restrenghten a bit tonight. If it does, then it has a shot at regaining Category 5 status for a bit, before getting close to the Yucatan and weakening once again. The timeline is still late Sunday for the system to impact Florida.
More to come later
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror)
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The NHC has done such an outstanding job all season. Max Mayfield is great director.
| Major Sharpe |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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At this point, it seems that anything is possible. The tracking for this storm is just too erratic. I was in the school of thought yesterday that believed it was going to track further north before it was all over. Then, the GFDL, GFC and BAMM went whacky, and the NHC revised its track back to landfall south of Naples (such as existed 24 hours before).
It would not surprise me if it ended up coming in at Punta Gorda/Venice/Sarasota, and following a Charley track.
Sharpe
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:18 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
At this point, it seems that anything is possible. The tracking for this storm is just too erratic. I was in the school of thought yesterday that believed it was going to track further north before it was all over. Then, the GFDL, GFC and BAMM went whacky, and the NHC revised its track back to landfall south of Naples (such as existed 24 hours before).
It would not surprise me if it ended up coming in at Punta Gorda/Venice/Sarasota, and following a Charley track.
Sharpe
Actually, if you look at the wv imagery through the http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html channel, you can see a wind maxim coming out of TX into the lower Mississippi Valley... In concert with said ridge erosion is what I believe is inducing the turn from WNW to NW - per the intermediate advisory... More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)... Anyway, I'm starting to hunch that this may pull a fast one on the 12z guidance and never come onshore the Yucatan - might get pretty darn close...
I'm also wondering if the 12z guidance isn't strong enough with the vort max coming into the middle Miss. Valley area in general..
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.
(reposted from old thread)
| Major Sharpe |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Good insight. I've been reading both your postings, and you seem to have a solid knowledge base. I suppose only time will tell.
Sharpe
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Max Mayfield is a great director, with one downfall: his publicity stance. He isn't really big with getting on TV and telling people to get their shit together and get their houses ready for a major hurricane on the SW Florida coast. Otherwise, yes, he is a relatively good director
Looks as though the ERC is over, as well.
| TinaB |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
More over, and this is subjective opinion from me, I believe that Wilma is at least in the last 2 hours moving almost NW by NNW.. (Used the edge of a piece of paper technique)...
Ah...glad to see I'm not the only one who uses that technique. I've also been known to use a marker on my computer screen
I'd concur by that method that the last few frames in the loop seem to be more NW close to NNW. But again it could be another wobble...who knows with this one! 
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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It is moving 5mph it is hardly moving.If the spped does not pick up its only going to go 100 miles in the next day.The NHC forcast is for this thing to go slow NOT stop but crawl which it seems to be doing.The north motion is expected and if it still goes only 5mph it has lots of time to catch the NE track when it gets to 20o if you look at the model runs it does not stall out till 20o so has time to go before the stall anyway.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I was able to eat dinner with him and Steve Lyons and their famlies at a hurricane conference in the Bahamas. They are not only excellent at what they do, but they are quality people with great families as well. Very approachable and just sincerely nice people.
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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It shouldn't really surprise anyone that it is now moving in a NW. the forcast track shows at about this time it would be turning to the NW. Right now i believe is running quite well compared to the track
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
It should be noted that the 12Z GFS shows a NW or even NNW motion from now until late tonight, but then turns Wilma back to the west and stalls it after that, so the increased northerly component that seems to be underway is not necessarily inconsistent with the model solutions of a slowdown or stall of Wilma over the Yucutan. It seems increasingly likely that the steering currents will signficantly weaken in 12-24 hours... exactly how far west Wilma has gotten by that time, and whether it acutally stalls or simply drifts along somewhere after that, will determine how much of a landfall this make over the Yucutan. The models have been consistent with one thing... the further east Wilma is, the sooner it will get picked up, but the models have not been consistent about how far west Wilma will get.
(reposted from old thread)
Yeah, that's all certainly valid... I wasn't really commenting in deference to accuracy regarding "guidance track" - per say.. (though it may sound that way
) The point was that if the models are perhaps too weak with the mid-lvl disturbance in the heart land, then maybe this initial pull N is under-estimated. So...basically, we're in agreement, although I am beginning to want to correct track guidance slightly right now that we are on the topic.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I still don't see Wilma (the eye) missing the Yucatan at this point though.
| Joshua |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I've met Max before as well, and he is a great guy. He just needs to be more open with the media, and talk out more. That's what officials are SUPPOSED to be doing in a tense situation like this. I applaud the NHC for doing the media press conference yesterday at 16:45, and I think that helped a bit to let people understand what was going on.
Summary: you have to let people know what's going on to save lives.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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me neither. in fact, it looks like it might put cancun on the strong side (right now the north side) of the storm, which would be catastrophic. is there any live coverage down there right now? i would be scared to death right now, even in a cat 5 structure.
Quote:
I still don't see Wilma (the eye) missing the Yucatan at this point though.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
It is moving 5mph it is hardly moving.If the spped does not pick up its only going to go 100 miles in the next day.The NHC forcast is for this thing to go slow NOT stop but crawl which it seems to be doing.The north motion is expected and if it still goes only 5mph it has lots of time to catch the NE track when it gets to 20o if you look at the model runs it does not stall out till 20o so has time to go before the stall anyway.
Yes, well, let's hope NHC's forecast is correct then!
...It's just a hunch, but I'm wondering if this won't be going like...almost due N by midnight at perhaps a slightly greater speed...
I'm basing this on physical observation alone - which can be misleading sometimes I admit... Basically, to re-iterate...
- I believe there is a wind maxim punching east from TX to the lower Mississippi Valley.
- Ridge erosion is observed over the SE U.S.
- Cirrus canopy is beginning to be pulled much more concertedly N and NE along the SE Gulf of Mexico, which be an indication of 1 and/or 2 things: 1) Shear is about to increase in the area; 2) Steering field may becoming established.
Granted, the short term N component is said to be predicted - that's fine - but my contention based on these physical observations is simply ....."to what degree correction is that N motion being assumed?"
that's all..
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I thought someone posted the 12z Had the Nogaps coming in around Sarasota? i know someone posted that from the last thread, but it just came out on http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation, and it has it coming in around FT Myers.
Wish people would look at it better before they post as i was going by that the Gaps was showing a Sarasota hit when in reality its showing a more south Ft Myers hit.
still only 1 model but a good one.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I would agree that a further right track is possible. There is probably a wider range of possible scenarios in the short-term than there would be with most systems. A slowdown at some point soon seems inevitable, and the possibility for errors in the direction heading of the storm increase when the motion slows. Normally, that wouldn't be as big of a deal, but even a slight deviation in direction at this point will make a big difference for landfall point in the Yucutan and even whether it will make landfall there in the first place.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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000
URNT12 KNHC 201910Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2415 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 089 DEG 145 KT
G. 350 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 13 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3041 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 3
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION
| TampaDon |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Long time lurker here, but just a simple question. I seem to remember during last years storm season and some of the previous storms this year, that an appearance of elongation in one direction or another was a precursor of a change in general movement in that direction. I was just watchhing CNN and looking at the IR images in the background and see what I think is N-S elongation of the overall image. I could be seeing things, but if this is the case, could this be the beginning of the long awaited change in movement to the NW and North?
Thanks in advance
| Lance Wilson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Long time lurker here, but just a simple question. I seem to remember during last years storm season and some of the previous storms this year, that an appearance of elongation in one direction or another was a precursor of a change in general movement in that direction. I was just watchhing CNN and looking at the IR images in the background and see what I think is N-S elongation of the overall image. I could be seeing things, but if this is the case, could this be the beginning of the long awaited change in movement to the NW and North?
Thanks in advance
Exactly. It has started NW now, possibly NNW. Some METs from Ruskin are calling for it to miss the Yucatan all together, but that remains to be seen.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Afternoon all.
Wilma's eye is starting to clear out nicely. She seems to be emerging from the ERC very well. I think as soon as the eye finishes clearing out, the pressure is going to start dropping like a rock again, and she'll become quite strong up until she runs out of real estate (probably in the pre-dawn hours). If at that time she stalls or moves more northward, a definite possibility (look at the high over NW Mex), she'll probably again maintain steady state Cat 5 into the GOM.
In another hour or so, wave heights at buoy 42056 will reach 30 feet, and should peak in about 8-10 hours.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Between the last recon fix about 8 hours ago and this one, the heading has been 315 degrees (straight NW).
Pressure up some, but FL winds support 130 knots, which would be up from the last advisory. Not unexpected, since the wind field has likely reconsolidated and is more in line with what you would expect from a 918mb storm. There still seem to be some fragments of the inner eyewall floating around inside the larger center. Those will have to be cleared out if Wilma is going to significantly reintensify.
| TampaDon |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Thanks for the reply. It will be interesting to see if the motion change plays out, and what it does from there. Is would seem not at all unlikely for it to stay over water if the motion change pans out.This is pretty much the scenarion Denis Phillips layed out yesterday of the day before. His issue was the closer to the Yucatan, the more north on the FL peninsula. Not good for me here in Tampa, but Tampa, while in the cone of uncertainty, is probably on the outside edge of probabliity for a direct hit.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I am in agreement with Tip , and I really can't see this lurking 40 hours down here. The southern solutions toaround 10000 Islands are taking this off the Yucatan at about 60-70 degrees and that just doesn't look like what the evidence shows. The trough to the west has shown a steeper amplitude than that, as Tip said suggesting almost NNE mechanism ahead to steer this off...that is too steep too in my opiinion so I'm compromising at around 45-50 degrees and up the coast a bit.
A little quicker than Monday too.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:02 PM |
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It's a limb... I'm jumping out on it!
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The storm is moving too northerly to make landfall on the yucatan. I'm calling for it to not make official land fall. I also thing the storm is starting to pick up a little forward speed. I'm expecting a 6 - 7mph movement, probably still called NW by the NHC, but with a turn to NNW by 11pm. Wilma is just bound and determined to frustrate us.
Part of my reasoning is watching the water vapor imagry show a significant push west to east. which will help forestall any movement (much) further west. In addition, there is a channel of lower pressure that runs to the NNW of Wilma, which I think will be followed to just east of the Yucatan.
I will not make any sort of guess about what happens after that.
-Mark
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The 18Z NOGAPS has it continuing north and then left turning into the Yucatan where it stalls out for a few days and then reenters the Gulf north of Meridia. Weird.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:13 PM |
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Nature
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Despite the death and destruction, you really have to admire the symmetry and beauty of it. Reminds me of a conch shell:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:14 PM |
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Re: It's a limb... I'm jumping out on it!
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Nice observation Bloodstar. I hadn't noticed it myself until TWC showed Wilma's track so far with a line super-imposed over it. In the last couple of frames it shows a B-Line almost straight north. Its like a 80-85 degree shift in the track. I was so surprised I had to play it again on the TiVO.
However, current Sat loop shows a definite NW motion. If it continues in a straight line it will barely miss the Yucatan, not good for us in S. FL . I also agree that this hurricane will not linger there for days like some models show. The westerlies are coming. You can see them in WV over N Mexico and Texas eroding the ridge, its just a matter of how quickly and where they take Wilma.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:14 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Hi I was wondering something...on the spaghetti models on the main page under the NHC tracker it has three of the models going thru central florida*tampa bay*...anyones take on that??
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: It's a limb... I'm jumping out on it!
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This is a painfully difficult forecast for NHC. Models have not been able to settle on any one solution for very long. This may end up approaching the Yucutan at a rather oblique angle, making the forecast of possible landfall and how long it would linger over the Yucutan very difficult. That part of the forecast makes a huge difference down the line in the intensity forecast. The forecast timing is also in question because there appears to be a fine line as far as when Wilma gets picked up based on the model output... if it stays a little further east than expected, it will get picked up sooner, but if it moves a little more west it could stall out. Throw in the impact of an eyewall-replacement cycle that is struggling to complete and the forecast is really a mess.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The last GFS run (12Z) also suggested a temporary move to the north, then a move back to the left over the Yucutan. Obviously, there is something that is causing the models to behave that way, but the features at work are probably too subtle to clearly diagnose.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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FlaMommy: I'm sorry but I could not navigate to where you were referring and find the models. However, here are the models from WU and I find that they are the quickest with their updates...none shown are near Tampa...oddly the NOGAPS is not shown. However, the NOGAPS was up earlier so I suspect it'll again update this evening.
www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
If you could provide a direct link to what you were referring to, I'd greatly apreciate it. I'd like to see what that one has.
FYI ALL: on Sun-Sentinel.com Max Mayfield is expected to have another "news conference" at 4:45pm. They'll be streaming it live.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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im so sorry about that here it is....
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:35 PM |
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Re: Collier County Mandatory Evacuations
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The Collier County Commission has ordered that mandatory evacuations will begin at noon Friday for all Collier County residents living west and south of U.S. 41. Officials hope to have evacuation complete in that part of the county by Saturday at noon.
| blue flash |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I'm not sure whether it is actually elongated to the north. The western side may be losing convection due to the interaction with the relatively dry land mass of the Yucatan. This gives the appearance of north/south elongation.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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They also showed on the noon-time weather on ABC that out of 45 models, 8 had either near, above or below TB. I'm not sure which ones they were, though, because they didn't mention them.
Did anyone here know that Governer Bush has declared a State of Emergency? Not at all unexpected; just surprised no one has said anything about it.
I cannot see Wilma making a direct landfall in Cancun...I believe she is just going to graze it...and mover further north before the turn to the NE begins. I've been calling for a track further to the north now for 3 days, might as well stick with it, huh?
Of course, now that all that's been said, Mr. Mayfield may come out and say: we expect it to hit somewhere between the FL Straits and Cuba".
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Ther NEW 5pm track takes it even slower then before.It has it still sunday way off of the coast.Right now it is still only 5MPH not faster as was suggested and also still NW and not NNW as was also.
All in All it has done about what they have said it would do just the long range has been going different directions.
Also winds are back up to 150 mph.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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5:00 is out. 18.9 85.7 NW 5 mph WINDS NOW 150mph
Track looks about the same
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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AH HAH! Thanks! Well, here's a link that DanielW has posted under General....I think you'll find it a great read and possibly might help to ease a little of your anxiety.
DanielW also says thanks to Bobbutts for the link in his post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74792&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
| mempho |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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***The following is just conjecture and one person's opinion. I am not a meteorologist and this "forecast" is just a personal interpretation. It goes without saying that you shouldn't make any decisions based on this analysis unless that decision is only to be aware of the possibilities..***
Has anyone considered that if Wilma does not make a Yucatan landfall, that will actually cause it to retain its desire to move poleward? In other words, a Yucatan landfall would weaken Wilma and, thus, possibly make Wilma more susceptible to being pushed in a "hard right" fashion towards the Florida peninsula. Conversely, a narrow miss through the Yucatan Channel would cause her to retain her strength and make her a much more dominant system and give her the ability to create her own environment. Of course, she's not completely dominant at this time, but she could be if she can cough up the rest of the inner eyewall from the ERC and soak up some of that high heat content water that she's over. I have presented 3 options for what I think will happen after we know what will happen with the Yucatan.
Landfall on the Yucatan
If Wilma fully landfalls on the Yucatan, this would obviously be good news for the United States (and terrible for some of my favorite places on this planet). Wilma will weaken and probably take the hard right when the front swipes her up. She will probably hit south or central Florida as a Cat 1 or 2; with the outliers being a minimal Cat 3 or TS. My guess...Cat 2 in Sarasota.
A "Grazing" of the Yucatan
When I speak of grazing, I am talking about an eyewall landfall that causes the storm to ride up the coast in such a way that it only knocks it down a category or two. This would leave it as a strong 2 -3 storm. This probably will result in high Cat 2 or minimal Cat 3 striking in and around the Tampa area. Why?
Wilma misses the Yucatan completely
That said, I have great difficulty in deciding if she will make a landfall on the Yucatan and, if so, how prolonged it will be. I do believe, however, that if she misses the Yucatan completely, she will probably land much further north than originally indicated. In fact, I would put her north of Tampa and put her as far away as Mobile Bay or the Florida panhandle. Once again, this would all hinge on a non-landfall in the Yucatan. Wilma, of course, would probably weaken (but still be a major) before making such an impact.
I know what you're going to say about this. You're immediate reaction will be that this is not plausible because of the trough. So, what happens to the trough? Well, its slows down or stalls out. The trough waits on Wilma. I don't think it will be the other way around if Wilma goes Cat 5 again without hitting the Yucatan. Wilma has all of the ingredients necessary to become an annular Cat V. Will she have real estate? I don't know.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Wow, I was looking at the infared loop and was noticing that it may miss the forcast mark to the east. However, when I refreshed it they had changed the forcast points on me..LOL! Now she is going into the Yuc as a 5 and turning towards south Fl as a level 2. They must still think it's going to continue into the Yuk at the 5:00!
5:00 disco is up! They think she will turn west again.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/202031.shtml
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I think the NHC is really looking at the GFS and GFDL...and slowing the system down....the GFDL has it as a cat 1 heading towards the FL straights...possibly missing the state entirely...as to heading north towards the panhandle.....no support anywhere for that....I think we will be waiting awhile on this one...but if it does come to FL, it will be a much weaker Wilma than we are seeing now...just my observations...by the way, low temperatures here in Pensacola on Monday/Tuesday in the upper 40's....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:49 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The forecast track hasn't changed a whole lot, but if you read the discussion, it is apparent that the confidence in the forecast track has dropped quite a bit.
The shortwave that is currently pulling Wilma to the north is forecast to weaken and move east. As that occurs, steering currents will temporarily weaken and then it is a matter of where Wilma decides to drift until the next shortwave tries to drag it north. NHC indicates that the slower models are indicating that it won't be until the third shortwave before Wilma gets picked up. It will be a close call.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Also they take the cane down to a cat 2 storm way before it gets to Florida and with the hostile enviorment probily even more before it hits land.
Now this is if the track and speed they have pans out.
Worth a note in the Disco they said the speed of the track they show right now might still be even too fast and Monday might be a landfall for Florida.
Man people who have to evac tonight would really not be happy that far in advance.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Does anybody else think that the last two discussions have been, well...... not very well written. When is Stewart due for another writing?
| LSUFAN |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 08:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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So, under no circumstances, is it possible for Wilma to hit Louisiana? Would that be correct?
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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hey there...for some reason the link isnt working so i cant access it...i remember seeing it...just dont remember where....
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Um, I would say you're probably safe.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I know the mets will hate my comment but: I'm a beleiver it won't hit you until it dissapates; thought the odds of a NO are almost nil.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I wouldn't say under "No" circumstances, but under the conditions that we see now, there is a less than 1% chance for things to permit Wilma to hit something other than FL/Cuba/Yucatan peninsula
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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You are right in saying it would have missed the forcast point. Wilma hits the new one perfectly. However, they still have a track that curves it into the Yucatan. This thing looks likes its headed in a straight line northwestward. Don't get me wrong, that could change, but right now Wilma is not going in a curve what-so-ever. At this rate it looks like the eye will never make landfall, just a graze of the coast.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Sorry...go to the top of the page here and click on Active Topics...the last one (Active Topic) is titled "Tropical Models" it's under the Forum Heading of Hurricane Ask/Tell (or something like that) just open that & see if the link will work from there.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Well, not to be disrespectful, but I think there is much uncertainty in what she's gonna due. My personal opinion, and I'm out on a limb, is that if she breaks 19.5N by 5am she'll get caught in enuf of the flow that she will not have to wait for a third S/W....a second perhaps, but not a third. This will mean a brush, or even a short-lived landfall near the NE Yucatan, but I don't see her hanging under a tiny bit of ridge after the S/W moves beyond her longitude Now that's not to say she couldn't meander, but she won't kick west. The 18Z NAM even now keeps her offshore, drifts her eastward just south of western Cuba, then has her go over west-central Cuba and strengthens as she heads to the NNE, probably skirting Miami. That probably won't happen , but the idea is that the model that was most emphatic at crushing her into the Yucatan has backed away from that idea. Again my take cause I'm getting tired and its time to get off the pot. Hope I'm wrong, cause if it doesn't weaken over Yucatan she'll be a formidable 'cane heading towards SW Florida. Cheers!!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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thank you i got it that time...unfortunately that is only one persons perspective on each model....where as he may be accurate or not...max mayfield was on at 445pm he stated that there are no bad models...just because one works one year doesnt mean that it will next....not trying to get anything started or a debate or anything but not everything is perfect.
thank you again native
Becky
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Becky, if it makes you feel better, I believe the LBAR is one that has it going into the Tampa area. This won't be LBAR's year. That one is way off all the time. However, if other models start pointing their fingers at Tampa, then there may be merit. LBAR won't get credit for it though..LOL!
Jackie
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Have a look at the latest recon plot. shows a pretty clear jog to the north and then the last point is actually looks to be wnw.. 3 min north and 7 min west
A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
A. 20/2116Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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FlaMommy, you been watchikng Denis Phillips for his 5:00 forecast? It seems he is leaning more towards a closer to Tampa landfall.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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hey Jackie thank you for that...but its not a matter of me feeling better its just the simple fact that everyone pin points which ones they like and prefer to use ....i mean im gonna go with anything Max Mayfield says for the simple fact that he is the NHC...thats just my opinion but when there is a line going through where i live I'm on guard:)
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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actually hes been saying that for a couple days now and yes i do watch him and he said the further to the west of the channel it goes the higher chance it will be a tampa event.....so you know there are local mets who are talking then there are NHC mets that are telling you what they think its going ot do.....stuck in the middle;).....
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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You're welcome...you are absolutely correct, that is one person's point of view. I know that you are new to the state...this is your second hurricane season here if I remember correctly. WOW...what an introduction. As eluded to by my screen name, you can guess where I was born and raised. I'm sure some others here will chime in with some helpful advise also. But, mine to you is this: You are doing a great job at keeping abreast of the situation...however, she's a couple days away still and (I'm going on the assumption that you have a plan in place) try not to watch the coverage adnauseum or you will go crazy. They (NHC) are not going to get any more specific than they are right now until Saturday (just my guess). So, if I assumed wrong and you do not have plans made, get one together now, get prepared, pray and lastly (the hardest part) wait to see what the EMO's of your county and NHC say in another day or two.
| nicolew |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
FlaMommy, you been watchikng Denis Phillips for his 5:00 forecast? It seems he is leaning more towards a closer to Tampa landfall.
I must have been watching a different Dennis? He said titan and him both look for south Florida. hit.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Well Pasco and Hillsboro Counties have already issued State of Emergencies for the county. Pinellas County is prepared to issue ours in the morning and issue evacuation notices, this all according to the EOC Director on the news just a moment ago. I am starting to get nervous for the first time. I rode out Opal in 95 and never want to experience anything like that again.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Brian Norcross Baby!!! He's the most tell it like it is shoot straight no hipe kinda guy....this ofcourse is just my opinion. I'd love to say my cousin Dean Tendrich @ Channel 5 in Palm Beach Co...but I live in Broward so, I don't get his station....although we do call his wife or MIL and get our info....hasn't missed one yet!
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?
Channel 10, ABC, Don Noe & his team
Knows his stuff, doesn't hype or overspeculate. Straight-forward info.
In Palm Beach, Channel 5, Steve Tendrich and his crew
Same reason
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:31 PM |
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I dunno......
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I'm looking at the WV loop right now, along with several of the models.
The first low that was moving south of east this AM is now moving north of east - and heading for Ohio. The "tail" on it is not very impressive - at all. By tomorrow morning it will be off the table as a steering influence. A clear miss for WIlma on that one.
Behind it is a trough from the canadian/US border southward towards the NV/AZ border. That trough looks pretty healthy. That's the one that was progg'd to pick up WIlma after the "chase" scenario fell apart. Now there are models saying that one will miss too.
BUT - look at the forecast for the panhandle area. The'yre forecasting Monday overnight lows in the mid 40s - a TWENTY DEGREE downward departure. That's big-big-big, and ain't happening unless we get a front through here, and with that will come the tail that has already picked Wilma up.
Three troughs by Sunday? Naw. There IS a VERY strong low south of Alaska right now that looks damn impressive, but its a long way out, and for it to get here in three days? How?
Also, ridging that was over the BOC is backing off bigtime. The center axis of that appears to be off the west coast now, and I see no reason to believe it will build back in eastward.
What I'd expect instead is what I have expected - amplification as a result of the jet and the second trough. I still think the connection may be made - probably Saturday - and the pickup will begin at that point.
With that said it appears that Cancun/Cozumel are in BIG trouble. It appears that Coz is going to get positively pasted - is there anything on the island high enough not to be under the surge? A 30' surge/wave impact is not at all unreasonable to expect from this beast. For them, it doesn't get much worse than this.
As for Florida, my general view hasn't changed - its slowed down though. If Wilma actually goes inland on the Yucatan - and it might - it will come back out much weaker. Florida is likely to get a Cat 1 or possible a 2 out of this if the Yucatan gets to rip the storm up for 24 hours or so, and I give that a 50% chance.
On the other hand, it is possible that it will stall just offshore. That would be bad for everyone - there wouldn't be much weakening from land interaction, but the windfield would expand significantly from frictional effects, and it would then end up coming at Florida as a reasonable shadow of what it is now - which would lend credence to a Cat 2 or 3 hit.
As for "where", I still think we're looking north of the projected path, and I've noticed something a bit interesting - TWC has narrowed the cone, but the NHC has not, keeping everything from roughly Cedar Key to the Keys in the "cone". I think that's very smart, because the exact shape of that trough is likely the important issue in terms of exactly what path this thing takes as it approaches the FL coast - if it does. I would personally NOT drop my guard anywhere in that area - not until it has been picked up and a path has been established.
In any event I remain concerned about phasing with the trough as it rides up and a significant storm event in the NE US. That threat is not off the table from what I see, even though several of the models seem to be insisting on it going straight out to sea after crossing the Florida coast.
| stellar1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Hi all,
I've been watching the Cancun radar for the past several hours and the track looks to be a steady 345-350 degrees; however, it is moving slowly. The entire eyewall is now visible in the most recent frame (20:57). (Unfortunately, the images of the radar that I capped don't seem to want to load from the site where I stored them.)
It is nearly abreast of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, which is about at the latitude that the UKMet, the BAMM, and the GFDL had it making a Yucatan landfall. It looks to be about two degrees east of the longitude of Cozumel, and it would need to turn to at least a 320 heading to make landfall at Cozumel or Cancun.
The last several frames (20:57 and 21:27) -- the images are 30 mminutes apartt -- suggest it is nearly stationary.
| nicolew |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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My parents live in Palm Beach County and ONLY watch Dean Tendrich! I watch Norcross now, though I used to watch Roland Steadham and even Bill Kamal. The guys on Channel 6 all look the same to me now!
Quote:
Brian Norcross Baby!!! He's the most tell it like it is shoot straight no hipe kinda guy....this ofcourse is just my opinion. I'd love to say my cousin Dean Tendrich @ Channel 5 in Palm Beach Co...but I live in Broward so, I don't get his station....although we do call his wife or MIL and get our info....hasn't missed one yet!
| spectrum24 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Denis Philips is an idiot. He's the Glen Burns of Tampa (those of you that live in Atlanta know what I mean) He lives to jump up and down and yell "the sky is falling the sky is falling!" A storm could be going to iraq and he'd say that he thinks landfall will be in tampa.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:34 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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You guys are too funny. I can honestly say I couldn't name ONE local met for our news. I never watch it. I have strictly used the NHC for 3 years and this board for a year.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
People mention the local mets they trust the most - wondering who the Miami/Ft. Lauderdale people look to most for local weather?
i miss bill kamal....
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:37 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I am sorry but I dont find that to be true with Denis Phillips. Yes he gets dramatic but he is the one always saying it's not coming to Tampa.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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18Z GFS is now spitting out the initial data. It shows a similar pattern to NOGAPS to this point. Movement north and then a westerly turn into the Yucatan. Consensus starting to develop?
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
I am sorry but I dont find that to be true with Denis Phillips. Yes he gets dramatic but he is the one always saying it's not coming to Tampa.
I agree. I think the TV mets in Tampa are playing this well right now. They are not overhyping the storm, nor are they dismissing the threat. Phillips is an animated guy, but I have never seen him unnecessarily forecast doom and gloom.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Bingo -- wave heights at 42056 reached 30 ft.
Wilma is looking awfully, awfully good. I think she's at Cat 5 now. Looks like another all-nighter coming up.
OK what's the deal with the recon?
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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just saw denis phillips looking at last few satt. photos going north, it may not go into yucutan.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Lets c whare this going to go in next 12 hours
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Brian Norcross on Ch.4 - CBS affiliate.
They say that he did a hell of a job covering Andrew.
I didn't get down here 'till '94 but have seen some of the clips.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:58 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Lets c whare this going to go in next 12 hours
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
Note please use the mirror we are providing for the Cancun radar to keep this radar site up longer. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
| pincty |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 09:59 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I just looked at the last few frames and it appears to be tracking NW. I have usually enjoyed listening to his hurricane coverage. For this storm I have been listening to Jerve or Fletcher.
| gavsie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I agree, yesterday he was saying it may not even be an event for us. However, I watch channel 10 or 8 for my weather. I do like to watch Don Germaise(if that's how you spell it). He humors me.
| rmcinorlando |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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This storm has me totally frustrated!!! So, until tomorrow morning, I'm out!
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:07 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I'm in FTL and watched them all... you can never have enough information. I use every resource I can find: this site, weatherunderground and boatsus has good maps too. Bryan seems to have the best "lay of the land" type info, he knows the area and even the street names. This becomes important once the 'cane is within radar range. They can tell you when a bad cell or band is pushing thru and can even calculate how long it will be around.
A Cat 1 or boarderline 2 coming over the house I can deal with (hopefully, house built in '93 - post Andrew, all CBS)... but is this talk of Cat 3 level that worries me.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:10 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Having just gone through this with Rita my advice is have a PLAN in place as soon as your area is in the cone. Just know where
you will go, have the car gassed up, and all of your supplies ready. I knew Rita would impact Texas from early on
(thanks to HankFrank) although I thought it would be
around Galveston. On Wednesday it was Matagorda Bay but by 1:00 in the morning on Thursday it was Galveston. On Thursday
morning it was Crystal Beach and a mandatory evacuation was ordered (we were already
under a voluntary evacuation from Wednesday). By Thursday evening they were saying Port Arthur/Beaumont
and then on Friday the TX/La border ( we are not that far from the border). The storm came in east of Sabine Pass, TX in Creole, LA.
Rita's eyewall battered Beaumont. So, I guess my point is have your PLAN way ahead of time and you can always cancel
reservations,etc. if the storm goes somewhere else.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:15 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The last few updates of the Cancun radar seem to be showing a more westerly movement than the last several hours. Perhaps this is bearing the GFS and NOGAPS models out. After all, those were very short term forecasts and shouldn't have as much error.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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When Katrina was supposed to hit the Florida panhandle I asked if she could make it as far as Lousiana. At the time
the high sitting over us extended just a little into Louisiana. I don't think anyone answered my question but I tell you I was
worried about Louisiana. Well, Katrina mad her second landfall in LA. I think the NHC has a good handle on the forecast of Wilma
but sometimes strange things happen. My Mom always told me the hurricanes have a mind of their own.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Um...found a wrinkle. The 85ghz from the Navy site shows the eyewall thin or open to the SW, which was not the case earlier. Trying to figure this one out...she looks really good on all the sat images, even if convection has been down.
The water in her NE quad is much warmer than the other quads, but I don't think that's it.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:18 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I agree you always have to plan. I got lucky as I was having my shutters redone on the house and I happen to have them all up for a check. I told them not to take them down (Tues). My wife is pissed, but that's life. We have lexan on the second floor and a roll down in the back so its not that bad.
It's hard to plan an evacuation becuase no one knows where the stom is going. Most of my friends are conveniently watching the leaves change in NY this weekend. Gov. Bush said to leave unles you're told to.
We always have tons of water in the house and my kids only eat pasta, so we're good. It's not the storm I worry about I hope), its no electric for a week after that bothers me.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I just got home from work and have been out of the loop. I am watching the local CBS met and he is talking a S Florida landfall. What is the experts opinion on the track moving a bit north to my area in Central Florida from Tampa (Mom lives in Plant City) and on to me (in Longwood, a northen burb of Orlando)?
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:23 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Does anyone know if the 18Z runs ingested any new data? Looking at the GFS coming out last couple of minutes, looks like a Tuesday player now.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:27 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Do you have a link to that radar?
Thanks
| jusforsean |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:28 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I miss Bill Kamal too::: But after his history, I cant stand the thought of him, however I do have to say he was one hell of a weatherman!! Otherwise I usually watch channel 7 but not liking the new guy hes nice but too wishy washy so I am learning to trust Brian Norcross this hurricane season! Especially when we had a tornado spawn out over Broward heading tword my street in Davie ( I live in a mobile home) and thanks to him pin pointing the exact location and street I was able to get out of dodge!
Luck to all...........
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Do you have a link to that radar?
Thanks
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Bill Kamal scared me, even when he was weatherman. And I personally thought he sucked.
Norcross, Noe, and Gerard are the way to go in South Florida.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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ok now that all have gotten on both knees and haild thier fav.. weather person ... back to our previous schedualed program .. what is the thought on the ridge in the gulf breaking down .. if that happens doesnt it push wilma more north ?? last couple of shots from the goes seems like she is headin north with a hint of west ..
| Fair Weather |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Heard Glen Richards from WOFL on the radio (WFLA) this afternoon and he said that the 2 models that are starting to show a turn towards the north are leading him to believe that it might be a trend, and that overall, he watches the models not individually, but as a whole and when one changes, the others tend to follow. His feeling was that the storm could very well make landfall around the Sarasota area, and his opinion was that when the storm does finally move through, that it would move through very fast, with little chance for weakening. In the 16 years I have been in the Orlando area, I have observed that Glen seems to be the most consistant in his forcasts. He is really one of the best. I like his scary meter
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Local Met on WINK in Fort Myers seems to be buying into the stalling over Yucatan and dramatic weakening. He's also talking about a Tuesday landfall as well south of Everglades City.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:49 PM |
Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The models are starting to shift up to the north know you got the A98E LBAR and the BAMD model tracking right through central florida. And my guess is that if the BAMD track right trough central florida than the other model the BAMM is going to do the same thing. Definiteley watching those model as the come in better agreement.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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URL?
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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if anyone is interested @ 7pm on abc news in tampa they are doin an hour long special about wilma
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Seems like every time the eye is about to clear out, an inner eyewall fragment flares up again. That is probably disrupting any attempts at intensification for now.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Well, the latest IR shows the eye almost 100% devoid of the inner eye structure now. I think it finally shucked the last of the old eye, and just as the system is heading into the diurnal strengthening period.
--RC
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:02 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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It's amazing how everyone is so different. I just saw Steve Lyons and he said a Yuc landfall with a 36 hour stall and a weak storm coming to FL! That's the NHC's thoughts, so I guess that's what he follows. They're the experts so I'll watch and see if it plays out as planned.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:03 PM |
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power
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if i had to put money, i'd just keep wilma's strength near steady state as it nears the ne yucatan.. and slowly weakening while it's close (more if it stops while onshore a la isidore). fragments of that old inner eyewall are still sweeping around, and there is some light westerly shear becoming apparent on the western fringe of the storm. that has to be advecting some dry air into the system. i'd just keep it a 4 for the near term... large eye systems like this don't spin up quickly.. and the parameters for strengthening aren't ideal (proximity to land, upper air). were the eye to contract some that might change...
i'm gonna hold to earlier ideas about landfall in southwest florida and proximity to the northeast down the road, but it's apparent that the first shortwave will miss the storm and that the second will only have enough to initiate a slow north then northeast movement. as a third plunges southward over the upper misssippi valley around sunday the storm should respond by accelerating towards florida. the ridging off the east coast is probably a little underdone... wilma is pumping it up some, along with some rebound via the upper low over the canadian maritimes finally pulling away east. the amplification looks a little undone, i'm thinking. add to that the the 18z gfs runs are showing phasing at the 500mb level but keeping the surface wilma offshore. this is probably wrong and i'm betting the trajectory will be such that the storm sideswipes the coast really hard as it becomes extratropical. not going to withdraw from this solution unless the storm beats itself apart on mexico, or the projected coastal low of the weekend really blows up and drags the 500mb trough axis further east than projected.
gfs has been consistently showing a caribbean system for the last few days for the time period now 6-10 days out. it never does more than become a depression-level low on the model runs, even though the upper environment looks very conducive. recent runs have been keeping a pretty static pattern, with a trough over the east and a subtropical ridge along 20-25n in the central part of the atlantic. the system itself has migrated from wave energy collecting in the western caribbean to an eastern caribbean system that develops earlier, and sort of washes out over the larger islands. i'm not convinced this is quite right yet, but do expect something to try to be there in about 7 days.
the wave near 55w may be undergoing southerly shear, but it looks better than the nhc is giving it credit for. there seems to be a good wind shift line, persistent convection, and a marginal environment aloft. models are showing slightly more ridging over the area as the outflow jet east of wilma reorients to a more poleward, less radial flow. i'm not entirely unconvinced it won't look better tomorrow, but the chances are still on the slim side.
HF 2303z20october
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:03 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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000
URNT12 KNHC 202210Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2139Z
B. 18 DEG 51 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2430 MA
D. 110
E. 220 DEG 13 NM
F. 295 DEG 127 KT
G. 207 DEG 15 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3052 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTHWEST
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Well, the latest IR shows the eye almost 100% devoid of the inner eye structure now. I think it finally shucked the last of the old eye, and just as the system is heading into the diurnal strengthening period.
--RC
Look again. The 2245z image shows a ragged eye. Also moved westward again from 2215-2245 it appears. Looking at the Cancun radar, it's headed right for the resort area.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:29 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Yeah...1 frame of a good eye, followed by 1 frame of a not-so-good eye.
Got a link for the Cancun radar?
Here's the microwave pass of Wilma - the inner eye is almost gone on it: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Yeah...1 frame of a good eye, followed by 1 frame of a not-so-good eye.
Got a link for the Cancun radar?
Here's the microwave pass of Wilma - the inner eye is almost gone on it: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
The radar link is available on the front page... but here it is too:
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12
Looking at water vapor, I don't see an inner eye anymore.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Hi all, I live in Parrish Florida just north of Sarasota and south of Tampa. I live in a
stick built home with alot of 100 plus ancient oaks on our rural property. I am getting very frustrated with this storm. I have been tracking it for days and it seems to have stalled. . Anyhow, I am getting very concerned as to whether I should sit tight with a plan or what. I have a feeling that this will be a very South Florida weak hurricane but its only a feeling based off of our extreme lucky streak in the Manatee Tampa Bay area. I am looking for the million dollar question Where is this thing going? I think I might be in the safe zone but the way things have been going Im not sure. My gut says were good here but I dont know if its a gut feeling or just a habit because of past canes always going around us. I would like a pro met to try and explain to me in simple terms their analysis. Or any amateur pros for that matter. Thank You!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Uh....Charley, Jeanne and Frances all hit Manatee County last year. Maybe not directly, but we did get it pretty good, especially east county towns.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 20 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Looking at that link, it looked bad on the first few frames, but towards the end of the loop, it looked like it was beginning to form another eye.
It's definitely moving slower (has been) but this could be a combination of interaction with some land and maybe an ERC.
At this point I have no idea what to think. I agree with most of the mets that we won't really know what's going to happen until it passes the Yucatan.
Another "Hurry Up and Wait" storm. I hate those.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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New recon, little change besides that the eye has expanded:
632
URNT12 KNHC 202331Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2305Z
B. 18 DEG 57 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2447 MA
D. 90
E. 315 DEG 20 NM
F. 29 DEG 130 KT
G. 295 DEG 20 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 11 C/ 3064 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C 40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 2312Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE, GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Well ('Uhh') I understand that but as a whole we didnt get much of anything atleast not here anyhow. I am in east county.... There was very minimal damage to this county. I am a native here and know what damage was done! Polk, Harddee, and for that matter Orange got alot more than here in Manatee. Anyhow if a pro would kindly respond that would very much be appreciated..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:12 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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It's all going to depend on where it hits the Yucatan. If it brushes the coast, it won't be able to weaken as much. If it crosses the tip of the peninsula, then we will have a much weaker storm ... especially if it just hangs out there for 40 hours (not quite buying into that scenario just yet.)
The second scenario is this: *if* it doesn't interact with land at all and keeps going on a N/NW track, that will allow it to get further north. Here is the key question: how MUCH further north ? It's definitely going to get picked up by another trough but when and where is the key to this whole forecast.
On a personal note, I am beginning to feel the "burn-out" with this storm...already. None of the models really have a good handle on it after it passes over/through the Yucatan Channel or peninsula, so it just leaves us all living in a state of limbo.
We can do nothing other than to sit it out and wait. I found myself getting very irritable and antsy today. So I've decided that in order to keep whatever single cell of sanity I have left, I will check in about every 2-3 hours instead of every 2-3 minutes, LOL! It has helped a lot and you can actually see more of what's going on ... if you are getting to the point where you are so frustrated, may I suggest that you forget about the storm for a few hours and do something you enjoy.
Like, say, get some sleep!
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:12 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Have ya'll seen the 18 GFDL? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
Nevermind, I found the animated loop. Good Grief I need some sleep. Have a good night everyone.
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:17 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Did you notice that the NE Quadrant is over Buoy 42056 now? Look at the Signifigant Wave Height and Swell Charts. Pretty interesting.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/West_Caribbean.shtml
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=EST
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:18 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Here's a plot of 18Z GFDL:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
Has a late move north-northeast to come back into Everglades City after riding along the edge of Cuba.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:20 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Have ya'll seen the 18 GFDL? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
25N 81.9W (the 120hr position on GFDL) is just NW of Key West. 27.1N 80.6W six hours later is on shore west of Palm Beach. Incredible.
ETA: 2345z IR image has the makings of a nice distinct eye. It's not quite there yet, but it looks much more impressive than 2315z image.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:21 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:It's all by where you live... i am in manatee county and never seen anything from charley. frances yes, i dont even remember jeanne. I think what he means or she means is... a storm hitting "directly" from coast of manatee county or whatever... And i can't think of any since tropical storm marco? i think...
Uh....Charley, Jeanne and Frances all hit Manatee County last year. Maybe not directly, but we did get it pretty good, especially east county towns.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:23 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Looking at that GFDL model data, I have to be reading something wrong.
If I'm reading it right, it's predicting a motion of 315/1.8kt @ 54hrs, 196/2.5kt @ 60hrs, 42/3.5kt @ 66hrs, 340/2.9kt @ 72hrs, and 85/4.1kt @ 78hrs.
That is a fun little circular loop, isn't it? I'm assuming that's a good portion of the stall pattern they are expecting over the Yucatan Peninsula (and the coords are more to the left edge of the peninsula, correct?)
These models are really having a hard time getting the pattern of motion down. I would hazard a guess and say that this storm is going to be one of the hardest ones this year to nail down a pattern for.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:27 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I am at the point where I think i am just going to ignore any model past the next 36 hours. No consitency from run to run. Flopping around like a flish out of water. Can't even be sure it hits the Yucatan right now. This thing may find a way to avoid it. Will have to see what the morning holds. Maybe some more consistency will start overnight. As of right now, I think a gut feel can be as accurate as a model. Just too complex a situation.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:28 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Deleted
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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18z runs map
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
look at the GFDL (grey dark line) just off of tip of cuba and southwest of key west in 120 hrs... maybe yesterday's "fluke" of the GFDL was on to something..... meaning wilma is going to be around a little longer... and get stuck somewhat down near cancun for a few days!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
I think a gut feel can be as accurate as a model.
Gut feeling? Mine is telling me not to relax one bit.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:41 AM |
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Local WPB Mets. take
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Tropical Weather Discussion on Wilma
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida
800 pm EDT Thursday October 20, 2005
Latest sat loop at 8pm....
Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.
I am going by the guidance of the ETA or NAm model since the upper air dataseems to be initialized well enough I think better then the GFS. The upper
air analysis. Right now Wilma is beginning to get influenced by the upper windstream flow and dry air into this system. The first appearance of raggedness
is just showing up. The ETA is vigorous with the upper trough that will engulf WIlma the next 24-36 hrs therefore she will weaken and also it appears the
southern cluster model of tracks across the extreme south florida and the Keys is the more likely candidate as far as future track of Wilma. Wilma is actually
moving NNW at about 5 to 7 mph and has just reached a blocking effect or wall to the west of it. The water vapor loop clearly shows very fast upper wind flow over the Gulf of Mexico and the GFS does not in my review of the model handle well enough on the speeds and intensity of the upper flow. The trough feature aloft at upper levels will pick up Wilma and push it East to Northeast while captured into a strong upper trough.
The later timing of Wilma more than likely will mean an even weaker system by the time it makes a right beeline shot just underneath our area across the Keys and the Straits or extreme south Florida. Wilma will be piack up speed Saturday and I would not hold my guard down and delay too much on the forecast track
and speed since she can pick up speed again once she is caught into the fast westerlies and the weakening commencing between 19 to 20 north latitude which it is just beginning to occur, she will open up and expose her eye to the dry air aloft and upper winds entering into in it's own circulation.! We should see tropical moisture opening up and streaming this way Friday and continue into the weekend as mid-upper trough now just beginning to engulf Wilma this will make her appear as an egg shape feature already happening now and also bring moisture streaming up here normally that you would see on any intense enough east side of a trough. Storngest winds tropical force is Sunday and Monday am then racing away..we must not be let down
as Wilma could pick up speed again Saturday night...the slow dowm may be temporary Friday thru Saturday PM picking up Sunday early am in speed and a more ENE than NE motion.!
More to follow...later.
Look just to the Northwest quad of the circulation and you can see raggedness starting more egg shape evoulution gradually talking place on Wilma...beginning signs of upper windstream flowing into Wilma and also DRY AIR MARKED AS COPPER BROWN ENGULFING INTO WILMA! The transition is beginning to take place she i sgoing away from perfect environmental conditions and entering in a more hostile enviroment..wind speeds aloft of 40-50kts is very significant ahead of where she is moving next day into this weekend...slow weakening next 24hrs followed by a rapid weakening possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday..
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Local WPB Mets. take
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This thing is driving everyone down here crazy!I am going to listen to music for awhile and try and forget about hurricanes for at least 30 mins.The stress level is through the roof now.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:49 AM |
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Movement
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Is it just me, or is the Cancun Radar and the Sat's showing pure NW motion from Noon EST - 6PM, followed by a more NNW bend (around 305-310 degrees)?
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: Local WPB Mets. take
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To illustrate the craziness over Wilma...the 8pm NHC Discussion seems to say the opposite..
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE WILMA IS OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO AS MENTIONED ABOVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUD
OUTFLOW N OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE SE
GULF...AND FLORIDA...FROM 20N-29N E OF 90W. THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 90W HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS W OF 90W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS E OF 90W
DUE TO WILMA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO COVER THE E GULF E OF 92W
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO WILMA .
Its madness....madness!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Local WPB Mets. take
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cancun radar link.... mirror site
http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:04 AM |
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Weather
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Okay. I know that everyone is awaiting Wilma's next move. Whenever that may come.
Please make sure that you are ready to leave if you are asked to evacuate.
My thinking is that while Wilma is puttering around the Caribbean at this time. Some little something from somewhere...might ( strong emphasis on might ) pick her up and move her along before any of the models could indicate the move.
So make sure you are ready to go.
Who said Weather is an exact Science?
It changes from moment to moment. Just like everything else.
The point is, to be prepared for the changes, and be Ready To Move!
Look at a large Lower 48 Satellite loop once in a while and try and get the feel of what NHC and the models are showing you.
Otherwise, You might get caught looking at Wilma out of your front window!
I am not a MET here. Just an observer
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Local WPB Mets. take
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The eye appears to be more open and better organized. Here's an infrared satellite image from Floater.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Weather
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My sentiments exactly. No one can let down their guard on this one. A slight deviation from the official forecast or a sudden, unexpected wobble could mean a great deal. Be ready.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: Weather
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I tend to agree with Danielw
While I think the general consensus tracking is most likely accurate, which means a direct run over my home, I only question the timeline, which seems conservative.
In watching all of this, I think it may only brush the Yucatan and get picked up, even if ever so slightly, and begin making its way eastward.
I think the size, intensity, speed to intensity, radical pressure changes and a few other factors have kind of put the timing question in the models in a bit of chaos. There is no previous input of a storm like this, so it is difficult for the models to calculate...never seen it before...never done it before.
By no means do I consider myself an expert, just a lot of observation
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:25 AM |
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NHC Track Forecasts
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I put found these links to give you an idea of what the 5PM Track Plots from Today, Yesterday and Tuesday look like.
5PM EDT Today
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/22.AL2405W5.GIF
5PM EDT Yesterday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/18.AL2405W5.GIF
5PM EDT Tuesday
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT24/13.AL2405W5.GIF
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re: NHC Track Forecasts
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Jim Cantore on Key Largo ..
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: NHC Track Forecasts
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you have tuesday and wednesdays up. not todays. just lettin you know.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:30 AM |
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Re: NHC Track Forecasts
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Buoy 42056 at 19.87N, 85.06W reported a 1-minute wind speed of 66 knots (hurricane force) last hour. Max wave heights were 32.8 feet.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:31 AM |
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Chatroom
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sorry for a short post, but as a reminder, the chatroom is open, feel free to drop by and give your thoughts and speculation and ask questions. On your left click on chat and come on in and stay a little while...
-Mark
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:Quote:
Have ya'll seen the 18 GFDL? It has the storm at 25 N in 120 hours! I have not seen it on a map and quite frankly I'm too tired to plot the coords but I'm thinking this is one crazy steered storm. Maybe FL will never see it. Let's hope anyway!
Here's the link for those who don't have it,
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/gfdl.txt
25N 81.9W (the 120hr position on GFDL) is just NW of Key West. 27.1N 80.6W six hours later is on shore west of Palm Beach. Incredible.
ETA: 2345z IR image has the makings of a nice distinct eye. It's not quite there yet, but it looks much more impressive than 2315z image.
For what it's worth:
00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z GFDL at 0z: 18.9N; 86.1W ...or, bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.
That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00z, which, may not seem like much but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something down the road.
Having said that, using the edge of a piece of paper and the degrees, Wilma appeas as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan.
| Nanci |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:36 AM |
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Re: Chatroom
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Hello all, I am Nanci and I am new here. Any ideas where this storm is heading?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:44 AM |
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Storm Heading
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Nanci, try this link.
The forecast/ projected tracks are updated every 6 hours or so by the Hurricane Center.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?3day
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205704.shtml?5day
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:46 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The last thing we want is this thing to stall just east of the Yucatan and remain over water for a couple days, i pray that is not the case.
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: power
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Hi. This is my first post after lurking for a while. That said, Wilma is an amazing storm. I have a question. After completing the ERC, it seems in the IR satelite images that the new eye is larger than yesterdays pinhole eye. Does this mean that the hurricane strenght windfield is also larger? After seeing the evolution of Wilma it seems to me that the ERC will leave us with a more larger ( in the geographical sense) storm which is almost as strong as before. I think it will be a high Cat 4 at least when it comes close or impacts Yucatan.
Being in Mexico I am quite worried about the latest movement trend. Also, the slower motion is very bad news for us as it means that the hurricane conditions will last almost 24 hours acording to the last NHC track. After being hit by Stan we can ill afford another disaster. At least the goverment has issued a red alert and asked people to evacuate low areas and go to shelters.
Jorge Nakazawa
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:49 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Very true. I would say though that there seems to be model consensus on the westerly turn into the Yucatan and the stalling. Given how short range this is and that the models had decent data I would think they have a fair degree of reliability.
If you've watched TWC tonight at all Steve Lyons has stated this idea pretty clearly.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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If, and I repeat, If Wilma were to stall. Upwelling of the water underneath the storm would surely contribute to her demise and or decay.
While the Yucatan Channel is not the preferred location for a stall. Due to the extremely warm water there. At least she wouldn't be sitting directly over land and mountainous areas.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:53 AM |
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Local Forecast
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Below is how our current local forecast page reads. Not too often you see a forecast page looking like this.
Sunday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible.
Monday
Tropical storm or hurricane conditions possible.
Discussion:
Current official track from NHC very close to the one issued early this morning...therefore forecasts remain fairly unchanged past Saturday with onset of tropical storm force winds along the West Coast early Sunday. Official track takes Wilma rapidly northeast across the County Warning Area and off the East Coast near or just north of Jupiter Inlet by 1 am Monday.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: power
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Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the ERC. The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when WIlma peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, Wilma is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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00:15z position: 19.3N ; 85.8W
18z GFDL at 0z: 18.9N ; 86.1W ...for a bias of -.4 S and +.3 W.
That calculates to about 31naut miles SSW of the actual position at 00z; which, may not seem like much now but 31naut miles has a way of meaning something more meaningful down the road.
It also calculates to a heading of ~345degrees.
Wilma appears as though "IF" she maintained the current path her W eyewall would graze the Island and she'd cross the very NE tip of the Yucatan - that is, taking a 345 heading and super-imposing it on the lat/lon grid. And also, this concurs by using the edge of paper method and laying on your monitor...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:09 AM |
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Re: power
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Quote:
Jorge, you are correct... the eye is much larger now than it was before the ERC. The last recon plane and current buoy reports confirm that hurricane-force winds extend much farther from the center than they did when WIlma peaked in intensity. In terms of destructive potential over a large area, Wilma is a more dangerous storm now than it was before, when only a very small area would have been affected by extreme winds.
The big question is how much it will likely strengthen now that the ERC is (apparently) complete. The current (0115z) IR image looks VERY impressive. The cloud tops are "only" red on the east side (orange on the west), not the dark gray and even white that were there when it was at 175.... but if it stays over water (avoids the Yucatan)... well, it's entering the same time of day that the explosive intensification occured during.... although the pressure appears to be holding steady at 923. Anyone want to shead some light on the potential short-term (12-24hrs) intensity trend?
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:11 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
The thing that is driving us crazy here is,We know Florida will get hit,But we don't know where and we don't know how powerfull she will be.We could get almost nothing,or we could get hit very hard.Do I go to a hotel or do I stay here?Do I do this or should I do that.If she does this she will do that.Nuts!I think everyone in south Florida feels the same way.Can you feel me???
If you live on the Coast you want to be ready if not you watch and see.Personally i would rather be in Ft Laud right now then on the west coast as you do have more time to watch and as said unless you are on the coast then just watch and be ready if you are told to go.
Also on CH 13 just now the Met said it is backing off to the west now after the troff went by and should make it inland tomorrow.But he did say it was backing off now to the west more after the Jog North.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:11 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: power
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Thunderbird, do you have a link to the bouy data? I know the recon aircraft is in the NHC site, but I don't know where to find the bouy data.
Thanks
Jorge Nakazawa
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
| nandav |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:14 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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I know.. you just have to use your best judgement. I am in North Port, FL in south Sarasota County (just north of Charlotte County line).. I know that we are far enough inland that storm surge won't affect us.. we are not in a flood zone and that our house is 3 years old and meets post-Andrew standards..AND it weathered "Charley" with no problems (but it also didn't have the eye go over it...unlike the house we WERE living in then). Based on all of that, we made sure we have water, canned food, generator, flashlights, batteries, plywood, propane, etc.. and we have no plans to evacuate. My biggest concern is power outage.. since such a large area was without power after Charley, even areas with very little other damage. BUT, if we were closer to the coast, it would be so hard to know what to do..... We would be making some contingency plans and we WOULD evacuate .. but pay attention to all of the information we can get. The waiting and watching can drive you crazy......
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:17 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Dude, I think you are way over reacting to this thing and since I also live in Florida and was hit twice last year I have a right to say that. First of all, if it does hit, we on this side of the coast would not even be getting a direct hit. Why in the world would you even consider going anywhere? I think it's in your best interest to just relax, sit tight, and don't obsess about something that you don't even really know what it's going to do yet. For your own good, i just wouldn't stress so much right now.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:18 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
The models are calling for LANDFALL and a stall... I said if it stalls OFFSHORE... and I never said I didn't "buy it".
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Does a landfall in the Yucatan seem more likely now than say 4 hours ago?Or does a glancing blow seem more likely now?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: power
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There is only one buoy close enough to provide useful info on Wilma at the moment... buoy 42056, which is located roughly 60 nautical miles NW of the center. It has been reporting winds near or at hurricane force for a couple of hours now (highest 1-minute wind speed of 66.8 knots the last hour):
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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There is not much land between the west coast and the east coast down where I am.Plus how much would she weaken if she is moving fast.Remember Charley?And what that did farther from the west coast than I am.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
...It's probably not so much a question of if it will stall, but where...
It may stall as the models indicate, but the analysis that I have demonstrated shows at least for one model, the GFDL, it was off at its 6 hour interval with a SSW bias. Extrapolating the 18z GFDL is already thrown out for that reason.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Quote:
How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
I am not saying I am not buying the stall. I am not buying that the storm makes it as far inland as the models say. Everything is really dependant on where the stall occurs and how much interaction with the Yucatan actually happens. If Wilma manages to stay more near the coast or even off the coast, the strength and possibly the structure of the storm could be very different from how the models are seeing it. A stronger organized structure will have a different atmospheric dynamic then a weakening system that is having its internal structure damaged. Until the stall occurs or the storm actually clears the Yucatan, I am going to have trouble feeling that the models beyond 48 hours are going to be very consistent or reliable. I am not even sure they are entirely reliable in the short term. Without a well defined steering flow, a lot of unforecasted things can happen. that is my point. The model may be right; but there are a lot of other things that can happen right now to make these models useless. Problem is we will not know for some time.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Hi Bob this thing is driving us crazy here in Tampa Bay as well because we remember Charley too. However, it is not possible to know the answers tonight because the information is simply not available yet. There is every possibility that this storm will be a rain event by the time the center gets to Florida. Either way, when the outer bands get closer it can throw tornados especially if there is a strong pressure gradient between a cold front to the north and the warm tropical air to the south. If the storm was headed away from you it could still throw a tornado and demolish the house next to you and leave you stand or vice versa. The only one who knows what is going to happen has not sent any heavenly messages yet.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Nandav--I don't know how far you are from the coast. But the people in Louisiana and Mississippi thought and did the same thing with Katrina.
Look at a map of the MS Coast and see how far inland I-10 is. The surge/ wind driven waves were better than 10 feet at that point. ( Hwy 603 and I-10 )
Ralph and Richisurfs. You are both entitled to your opinions. Each one of the 800 people on here now deals with stress differently.
Either PM each other with your comments or don't comment...please.
Comments directed at another person will get you a Time Out. Thanks
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:29 AM |
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just a little bit confused
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I have heard people say, here on this site, over and over again, that a big storm cannot turn on a dime. That makes sense. Language may be my forte, but basic physics is learned quickly by those of us who are very clumsy
Why is it that almost all of the models have Wilma making some sort of VERY sharp turn, wheter over land or over water? I suspect that I have not read the most recent data, but I have been curious about that as I have seen it happening all day.
How can a computer model generate such a sharp turn when a sharp turn just seems physically impossible?
| Todd Caldwell |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: power
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Thunderbird12,
You beat me to the punch! I was just about to post the same thing so I'll just add a graphic link to show Wilma's 8:00 PM location. Gust to 84 mph with 32.5' seas.
Weather Buoy
| Jorge Nakazawa |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: power
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Thunderbird: Thank you very much.
I will keep tracking this storm. Unfortunately the cancun radar shows a direct trajectory towards the Cozumel area. I am quite safe in Mexico City, but I have some friends in Cancun. Hopefully they listened to the warnings I send them tuesday night and are either at a safe refuge or out of town. This site has been invaluable in assesing and following Wilma's fast intensification and evolution.
Jorge Nakazawa
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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A sharp turn is not impossible when the motion is slow and erratic. A storm moving 10-12 MPh would have a bit too much energy to turn on a dime. A storm moving at 3-5 in an erratic fashion can change direction easily if the right steering flow get a hold of it.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
I have heard people say, here on this site, over and over again, that a big storm cannot turn on a dime. That makes sense. Language may be my forte, but basic physics is learned quickly by those of us who are very clumsy
Why is it that almost all of the models have Wilma making some sort of VERY sharp turn, wheter over land or over water? I suspect that I have not read the most recent data, but I have been curious about that as I have seen it happening all day.
How can a computer model generate such a sharp turn when a sharp turn just seems physically impossible?
The reason they do this isn't a contradiction if you undertand the storm structure... The models are averaging together to a position 'over land' on the Yucatan for a considerable length of time, enough to induce substantial weakening.. Should that take place, it is thus more susceptible to subtler influences in the steering field more readily as they incur. But... there is some short term analysis now that suggests that the models, particularly the GFDL (I simply haven't analyzed for the others yet) is demonstrating a W bias at the 6 hour interval off the 18z (2pm) run.
which fair enough to say, means that it may not be correct about the landfall, or any length of time thereafter...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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The sharp turn is Supposed to be in response to a front/ shortwave passing through the area.
I believe it's currently in the Desert SW. But it's forecast to move rather rapidly toward the SE.
I'm looking at a few loops at this time. I am seeing the outflow from Wilma further North than it was early this morning. I don't know what is permitting it to advacne to the North. But it's moved from the Port Charlotte area to near Cedar Key currently.
Oh, and I'm not a MET-standard disclaimer
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:34 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB
not much change
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS
GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE EASTERNGULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: power
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I am not comprehending why this storm is so hard to forecast? Is it the old "if it gets into the gulf its anyones guess' theory? Why is this storm so different than all the others? Were the models contaminated at one point? , and if so why? I know this sounds absolutely far fetched and rediculous but is it possible that a contaminated model could be from an outside source like a virus or a terrorist plot? I am quite sure that everyone plotting this storm is in very tight nit contact via phone etc.. I just thought I would ask because this one has been a true Sherlock Holmes Mystery.. These pros have been doing this for years and this just seems to be a real challenge so far. Thanks all for your professional and courtious replies! Everyone has been great!
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Forgive me for bothering you'all if this is generally known, but I like this web site because it has so much info--maps, statements, etc--gathered conveniently in one place. For all I know, this site might even BE one of you, but thought I'd share anyway. Crown Weather
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...19.3 N... 86.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB
not much change
NOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INDICATES THAT LARGE SWELLS
GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
Question: Is that based on new data??
Also - they don't by protocol register changes in tracks for shorter duration apparencies.. There has to be a better demonstration.. Not sure if the analysis in question is for a length of time to offer significant weight in those decisions quite honestly... And, I have to admit also that it is based on my own subjective analysis - which I'm sure you are already aware - and honestly, hasn't this thing been a bear for mere satellite obs?? It's eye is oddly behaved all evening and makes it difficult to best estimate.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: power
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No terrorist plot to contaminate the data with a virus. That I can be 100% sure about.
Just atmosphereic dynamics. And not enough data for the models to get a good handle on it. Plus we do not understand everything that occurs with hurricanes. Some of them are just going to confound us. Simple cold fronts confound us at times. Just the nature of weather forecasting. No deep plot anywhere.
| jmusicman |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I've been watching you guys for a while and thought you might like this link (its the 11pm forecast track)
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
if you look at the degrees (325) of motion it looks like its now officially moving NNW
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:41 AM |
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42003
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Only showing 11' seas - but on a 13 second period. 11' isn't huge - but its definitely significant.
Trend is definitely up, the period has been long since last night. Periods over 10 seconds are unusual - except for hurricane-based swells - in the gulf.....
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:42 AM |
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Re: power
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Intensity-wise, it's tough to say without some new recon data. The eye has definitely become better defined since the last recon fix, but it has not cleared out to the extent that you see with some extremely powerful hurricanes. The convection is not extremely cold yet and is not quite symmetric around the center, with more and deeper convection on the east side of the system.
If this had been a weaker storm to begin with, I would say it is intensifying, but since it is a very powerful system, the improved organization may just be going towards holding off more of a weakening trend. The radar presentation of the eyewall isn't super-impressive yet, either. The plane is on the way, so I guess we'll find out in a couple of hours whether this thing has been deepening again. Latest advisory just issued by NHC still indicates the possibility of strengthening in the next 12-24 hours.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:45 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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Just got home...Wilma not looking like she's going to make it into cat 5 territory again. Looks like dry air may be having an effect on the north and west sides of the storm, which I didn't expect this afternoon. But looking at the wv loop, that is the way it appears to me. Also it looks like she ran out of real estate before she got a chance to completely recover from the ERC. The eye hasn't completely cleared out yet. But she still has good overall organization, the eye is round, she still has an extremely low pressure, and is still a very powerful hurricane.
Looking at the steering layer right now it certainly does appear she is going to bulls-eye Cozumel.
Buoy 42056 is getting hurricane-force gusts now and waves may have peaked at 33ft. Pressure is still up around 990.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:45 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
I've been watching you guys for a while and thought you might like this link (its the 11pm forecast track)
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt01.gif
if you look at the degrees (325) of motion it looks like its now officially moving NNW
...Interesting! I had a 1/4 ration using arc tan for an angle of 360 - 15, which equals 345degrees... I am a bit surprised that they are so flat.. I'm thinking the discussion will be interesting..
| jmusicman |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Yeah it would need to be closer to 340 for a true NNW... btw.... the navy always updates that site about 15-30 minutes before the NHC....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Wilma Moving Northwest
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The official forecast brings Wilma back up to 145 knots (cat 5) before landfall near Cancun. Needless to say, that would be a disaster.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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...I'm sure this has been covered already but just in case...Wilma's circulation field has grown tremendously since this time yesterday. Even if she does stay barely off shore and skims by, they'll have hurricane force winds and damage extensively so we should say that it's a moot point perhaps.
In other words...it's high confidence for sustained hurricane + force on the coast.. heck, at 7pm TWC had sustained 49mph at C
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Just got an email from a friend in Playa Del Carmen,they still have power,And not to bad yet.But the winds are increasing and the rain is getting heavy.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I too had a 345ish track over the last few hours from radar (heard that attenuation wasn't an issue, but didn't think to ask if the equipment in Mexico was the attenuation-reducing variety). On that track, her eye should miss landfall.
That being said, I'm not going to stay up all night to watch and will backpedal and say that a partial landfall is probable, but I do not expect the entire eye to be on land at any point in the next 24 hours.
YMMV, but I'm seeing the same info as everyone else.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that Wilma according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of Wilma, may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:55 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that Wilma according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of Wilma, may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
...Like I said in my previous post "...I'm sure this has been covered already but just in case...Wilma's circulation field has grown tremendously since this time yesterday. Even if she does stay barely off shore and skims by, they'll have hurricane force winds and damage extensively so we should say that it's a moot point perhaps."
..
is that the break you want?
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 02:56 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Nice Post and if you only knew how right you are! "Crap Shoot is a good definition. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:01 AM |
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Data
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21/0250Z...THE 00Z GFS STARTED ON TIME. NGM MODEL DONE.
NAM MODEL WAS OUT TO T+72HRS.
NCEP RECEIVED 28 DROPSONDE REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV FLYING RECON FOR HURRICANE WILMA.
00Z RAOB RECAP..
JAN/72235 - 10142..EQUIP PBLM
note:This is Jackson,MS NWS site, and could have some effect of the models. As a weak shortwave appears to have passed through jackson since 12Z this morning. Just food for thought-Only~danielw
| jmusicman |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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well is it a 7 we going for? 16.67%... or do we just bet on the evens? (49.7%)
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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we be talking philly here. any takers?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:03 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Nice Post and if you only knew how right you are! "Crap Shoot is a good definition. Thats pretty much it in a nutshell!
Looks like we're not the only one's taking interest in these developments tonight,
NHC: "HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS STEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT
TURN OR THE JET DATA."
...Trust me, mentioning it, discussing it, reasoning it how....it's all important, necessitated and frankly, what this forum is all about...
...It's odd that people ever even hint at being critical for other people exercising the use of this forum for exactly what it exists for... Strange logic.
And actually, I forgot to add: "THIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA." - all from the official 11pm discussion.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:05 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Was much closer to 350 before the last frame was added...
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Aw yes, what to do. You people make me laugh at all the guess work that is going on in this forum. This model says it is going west, this one says it is going east, and this one says it will stall out. Give me a break already. Everyone is looking at all the models for their predictions and end results. To me, I belive that Wilma according to "ALL" the models, probally will not make landfall, but come through the Yucatan unscathed. What does that mean? Well, a CAT 4 on the move, perhaps a CAT 5 for a couple more days. If we didn't have models to look at, then we on this forum would have nothing to comment on. It's a crap shoot. Change tracks here, then re-change them here, who knows. Mother nature is the one who knows. Those unfortunate in the path of Wilma, may god bless all of you. But Everyone needs to heed the speed.
Hey Philly live through a storm or 2 then shoot craps
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: Data
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NHC 11pm disc confirmed what I saw on the wv loop (starting with the 2045Z...before that, you can see the convection did recover from the ERC to become symmetric):
VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR...
SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE...AND INDEED THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HR
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:09 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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A little off post but got ot comment on this
Watching the Weather Channel Jeff Morrow was interviewing a resident there I belive he was on the West Coast of FLA and he said that he moved there 3 years ago, and ask the residents there how often this particular area gets hit by a hurricane, the longtime resident said at least every 40 years, but the 3 year resident said now it seems that we are getting them every 40 minutes now. Just cracked me up.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:10 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Yeah I know Im just frustrated a little! Sorry for that.. When do you think it will be a confident forecast? Im asking within 200 miles? Ive heard literally a 650 mile difference.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:12 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Was much closer to 350 before the last frame was added...
Who is in charge of making this image? This is different than HPC at 11pm so I'm curious..
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:13 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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The answer to that question will come when Fema comes into survey the damage and everyone within a 200 mile radius is asking for help to replace their home with mobile homes.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:15 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Ive been living through the waits warnings, cones, evacuations, hot sticky weather,another etc. etc etc etc. and Im shooting craps every other weekend but not here in Florida but at the local Casino in Cherokee N.C in the beautiful appalachian mtns...
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:19 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Well,that 11:00pm update did nothing to help us here mentaly.Just nuts,time to go to sleep,this will drive you insane.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:19 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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The funny thing is, the 0z NAM has it going into Cancun and stalling while the previous 18z run had it stopping just east of Cozumel, then moving east south of Cuba. BTW, Looks like she's bending back to 300 degrees on the last loops. I'm going to bed. sheeeeesh!
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Yeah I know Im just frustrated a little! Sorry for that.. When do you think it will be a confident forecast? Im asking within 200 miles? Ive heard literally a 650 mile difference.
That's cool..
As far as the forecast... I wish I can say that my analysis at 9:30 that demonstrated more of a series and concerted right motion lends much confidence.. It doesn't... HPC stated and I concur, "THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST", even though they agree with what I and others on here deduce a couple of hours ago...
That being said, the new guidance (which frankly, up until 2 days ago was much better ironically enough) at 00z will be telling, because is simply a) must take into consideration that they were all full of s*&! at 18z because of this righter motion, and b) as danielw had posted, it looks like a fair amount of addition dropsonde data got into the 00z from the P4 mission earlier tonight...
One thing I'd like to add... Florida has never lowered their guard, that's for sure. BUT, I do sense that there may be some premature sighs of relief based on the 18z guidance and the short term popularity to have this thing over land on the Yucatan (not that it would be any better for them - best wishes!). I agree with the HPC whole-heartedly that it is still possible for a major hurricane strike on the Penisula of FL. However, one can only wonder if anyone there has considered storm relative shear... SRS means that if Wilma is moving smartly along toward the NE or even NNE once she's clear of the Channel, her shear 'relative' to the wind field around her is less because her forward translational velocity reduces the impact of the shearing force. That "may" actually mitigate some of the weakness anticipation...
I'm only hoping HankFrank has been following this tonight because he and I have an on-going conversation about Wilmas subsequent date with the westerlies..
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I have when I lived in Virginia Baeach/Norfolk area. So yes I have been through some of the worst weather a hurricane can bring.
| DrewC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:22 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Looking at the satelite images with the 11P updated tracks, and it doesn't even look like Wilma will even get west enough for the 1st forecast point. That doesn't give me much confidence in any models or forecasts for Florida in 3 or 4 days.
| Elaine H |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I for one enjoy the speculation...that is what the forum is all about...we all understand that the best path to follow is the NHC...the interesting part of the forum is the speculation from the different parties that follow the weather as a hobbie and the experts that join this forum ... and they have interesting points of view. It is quite simple...if you think that everyone is off base then go to www.nhc.noaa.gov and don't worry about the comments on this site.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I really think someone is trying to get us to cry Daddy.I mean i did not mind charlie as much as at least it was coming and coming and then went but now this is like someone holding a gun and 3 people standing in front of him and he says im going to kill one of you but i think ill just hold the gun here for a few days and make you suffer.
Well this is not as bad but you get the idea
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:25 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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My thoughts on this is that Wilma is feeling the land of the Yucatan and possibly is starting to push her away. This has happened in prior hurricanes, as they felt the land, it changes course. Why? I don't know. But I think it has to do with friction.
| Rdietch |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:27 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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well last few pics looks to be going back west around 305 anyone else see this makes a big difference.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:29 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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I went back and animated the 5 Day track at the http://nhc.noaa.gov site.
Wilma is Very Near the 3 Day forecast Point from MONDAY.
I haven't compared the lat/ longs to the actual location. But the graphics are very close.
Recon is inbound and should give a new Center Fix around 90 minutes from now.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:30 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
Who is in charge of making this image? This is different than HPC at 11pm so I'm curious..
It's mine from the Cancun radar... So I guess I'm in charge of making it?
Seriously though, I took a spread of 3 images from within the times listed and drew some dots. If I make one tomorrow, I promise to make the center points red (I reduced it to a 16 color gif and forgot to assign that red as one of the colors). The start and end times listed match the start and ends times on the beginning and end point of that graphic.
I've always maintained that a jog is a jog unless it's a trend of 90 minutes or more. This met that criteria.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:31 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Truly amazing, it is 11:30PM and so many observers on this site.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:37 AM |
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10PM Discussion
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To borrow the more than often used phrase from TWC.
The Bottom Line.
Last sentence, from the next to last paragraph from the 10 PM CDT Discussion Tonight.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS
IT COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: 10PM Discussion
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Thanks,now I will sleep better.LOL
| gavsie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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All I can say about this storm right now, a couple of days ago I belive I went to bed with a Cat 1or2 and at 2 in the morning it was a 5. Wow. If that was not the first clue that this storm would give forecasters some issues... I have no idea what would. Here in Tampa though, people don't seem worried. I think it is simply because we have done this before. Once there is more certianty in the path I will start my plan in to action. I just wish I knew where she was going.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:41 AM |
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From Scottsvb
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From: scottsvb
I looked at that storm right now, Just south of LA or middle gulf outside the main outlfow and saw the tops blown off and then tried to hold,,,also you see the trough angle doing down thru LA and will be east of her by morning...looking into the NW gulf you see slight ridging coming in but will be short lived... hard to tell right now...but I wouldnt be surprised to see a drift N into the morning,, then again,,could drift W or even NE until Saturday when it will nudge NE and pick up speed on Sunday. Hard to tell,,every hour is important from this afternoon on...also more G missions into the gulf and also developing orientation of the trough,......anything from Cuba on a run to the east to a more NE path just south of Tampa could happen.....wont know forsure until it starts moving Saturday in a general direction,,,,but what happens before then and where it starts from is the key......lower latitude= Cuba,,,,brushing the keys and Miami......a drift more into the GULF N of the Yucitan will mean more NE up along the trough digging in behind and a Sarasota path..
btw you can post this also,, so I wont have to repeat it...LOL. Ill be back later
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Checking the last infra red shows a very distinct eye. Believe this is a sign of her really venting, and venting alot. The eye is increasing as well. Expanding is on the order also.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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Evening all, went out around 5pm, went to dinner with the wife and kids and came back and Tampa now looks to be significantly back in the cone of errrrrrr. Without me reading through a bunch of posts could someone give me a quick rundown on what or how this has happened, CHEERS
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:47 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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Yeah I can I update you:
Currently, it is a "CRAPSHOOT". All bets off if Wilma misses the Yucatan.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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I think his meteorology has always been pretty up to snuff! Thank You for posting Scotts words....
You are most welcome~danielw
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:51 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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Quote:
Evening all, went out around 5pm, went to dinner with the wife and kids and came back and Tampa now looks to be significantly back in the cone of errrrrrr. Without me reading through a bunch of posts could someone give me a quick rundown on what or how this has happened, CHEERS
..Basically, a substantial amount of time along Wilma's recent course has been right of the 12z and 18z guidance, making it highly skeptical that she will a) spend enough time over the Yucatan to weaken substantially, and b) requires that her spatial change be conserved down the line, giving rise to the necessity for a course correction - which is to say a quicker (potential) enter into the westerlies and therefore a slightly different approach to the Florida Penisula...
...However, HPC goes out of their way to say this is a minimal confidence result... unfortunately!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:52 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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The 00Z GFS is coming in about the same as the previous two runs, with Wilma making landfall south of Cozumel around 18Z tomorrow and then sitting over the Yucatan through at least 48 hours (I have only seen the output out to 48 hours so far).
The shortwave nearing the Ohio Valley that is currently steering Wilma to the NW has about reached Wilma's longitude, so its influence should be ebbing within the next few hours. After that, Wilma will probably slow down even more, and that is when the models decide to drift it to the west. The current motion is somewhat more to the N than the models had been suggesting, but not by a whole lot. The westward movement was shown in the models to commence later tonight and we are about to see if that is going to materialize.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:54 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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"Truly amazing, it is 11:30PM and so many observers on this site."
If you look to the left, you will see this.
Site Donations and thanks
We use a lot of bandwidth here and there are other expenses ...
Good night all. Probably little change will be found when I arise.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: just a little bit confused
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Quote:
I went back and animated the 5 Day track at the http://nhc.noaa.gov site.
Wilma is Very Near the 3 Day forecast Point from MONDAY.
The NHC 3 day forecast ARE very accurate, history has proven this. Even with all these wobbles, loops and jogs - the overall motion and direction have been right on track. The only thing that has really changed is the time-line. We went from a Saturday PM to a Monday AM landfall in SW FL. Big picture wise I don't see much change in the overall forecast, at crunch time you'll be spilting hairs. Thus if the storm hits as high as Sarasota or as low as Key Largo the NHC will have it narrowed down. However the real problem is the forward speed once Wilma makes her turn (assuming that happens) - this accelerate will compress the timeline making it near impossible to focus the "cone of error" down to individual cities until maybe only 12 hours before landfall. Normally we would have a more precise location at around the 48 hour mark. Very frustrating when a storm slows, nearly stalls then takes off in another direction at nearly twice the speed - the margin for error goes thru the roof during such a dramatic event.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:57 AM |
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Satellites
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Force. I just checked the last Dvorak figures.
Wilma's Eye Region temperature has warmed up to it's highest yet.
However the Mean Cloud temps have dropped about 3.5Cfrom today's peak.
Appears to be taking some shear from the West. As the Dvorak images are showing a lop-sided 'White" level. Badly eroded on the Western Semicircle.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 03:57 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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Any thoughts or agreement on this, should the cold front moving down Sat & Sun entrnch itself, wouldn;t Wilma choose another route, a Hurricane would not follow a cold front correct or no?
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:00 AM |
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A question for mets and all hobbyists
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Do the models take ALL historical climatology and paths into their outputs? Obviously we don't have pressure readings for the storm below in 1873, but the position of this current storm, Wilma, and the 1873 #5 hurricane sure do seem VERY similar and very ominous.
If historical climatology is part of the modeling process, especially the globals, please PM me and let me know how. I am very concerned though that Wilma is SIMILAR to the 1873 storm and the path might end up in the same manner.
Thanks again for all the great data that everyone posts here.
Link to path of 1873 #5 storm:
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1873/5/track.gif
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:02 AM |
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Re: Satellites
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Daniel,
I agree, looks a little ragged on th ewest. But the eye is in tact and looking very symetric don't you think?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: From Scottsvb
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Quote:
Any thoughts or agreement on this, should the cold front moving down Sat & Sun entrnch itself, wouldn;t Wilma choose another route, a Hurricane would not follow a cold front correct or no?
...It depends on what you mean by "follow a coldfront"... If you mean, a cold front passes by the storm and then the storm starts chasing it then no...
...But I suspect you mean 'will the hurricane travel along parellel to the boundary?' That answer is maybe...
...Softly spoken, the U/A mechanics that cause a front to exist at the surface requires an excited windfield aloft. Any hurricane in the vicinity of a front tends to get pulled along polarward ahead of the boundary, while also transitioning into a different thermal dynamically driven system (barotropic vs baroclinic, but we won't get into that here) for various reasons. Until eventually it begins taking on extratropical characteristics.. Then it begins to look like a Norwegian model low (loosely), and can often turn into ferocious gale monsters in the N Atlantic. If the storm is too weak to begin with, the shearing ahead of the front may just cause it to morph right into the frontal boundary its self and loose identity altogether.. Wilma is waaaay to strong for that, however.. It is more likely that she will either a) stay ahead of the baroclinic zone as a separate entity as she going to England at ludicrous speed....or, she'll get sucked up into an important trough slated to dig into the Ohio Valley... If that happens, could be a whale of a Nor'easter/hybrid event up along the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts... That appeared to be a real concern 2 days ago, but since....the models have been finding every perturbation imaginable to make that not happen at least excuse to do so.. Which is probably a good thing.
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:26 AM |
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Re: Satellites
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Daniel, you are right ...
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/tropi...b-191N-858W.jpg
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:27 AM |
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buoy 42056
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Buoy 42056 is still reporting 1-minute sustained winds to hurricane force, and also reported wave heights of 35.4 feet last hour, which is the highest so far.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:38 AM |
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Satellites
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I don't know much about Dvorak Images.
Wilma's Eye temperature is still rising.
Up 2.9degrees between 0315 and 0345Z.
At it's highest temp today.
I can't compare it to her earlier states. As her Eye was too small then.
I did compare the Eye Region temp to katrina's profile though.
When Katrina's EYE REGION temp. started increasing...her pressure dropped out.
I checked Rita's EYE temps against her pressure and there appears to be Some correlation.
Recon is due for a Center Fix in about 20 minutes.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:41 AM |
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Re: buoy 42056
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Quote:
Buoy 42056 is still reporting 1-minute sustained winds to hurricane force, and also reported wave heights of 35.4 feet last hour, which is the highest so far.
I remember seeing a recent report on the wave heights reported by the bouys.
The max wave height isn't measured but can be approximated by multiplying the listed wave height by 1.9. I'll try to find that link.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:42 AM |
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Re: Satellites
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This might help for those of you who are interesting:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:51 AM |
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Re: Satellites
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hey there could you have possibly meant those that are "interested"...lol....anyways...we arent under any evacuations yet but i made reservations at the only hotel left....ahhhh....not what i would prefer but good enough not to go to a shelter....good luck to anyone looking for one in the tampa/brandon area....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:51 AM |
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Vortex
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Max Flight level wind so far is 116kts at 0447Z.
Now up to 128 kts at flight level-0456Z
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 04:57 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Max Mayfield said tonight that likely will hit as CAT 1 or CAT 2..
Good news.
That could change though, depending on how long is stays over the peninsula.
That would depend on where you and your home were in relation to the Cat 1 or 2 landfall...~danielw
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:07 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Boy, that eye looks quite impressive at the moment...best it's looked since it was a sinister pin hole... It does look (in spite of all conjecture) like the NE Coast of Yucatan is under the gun; Cuz. appears to be in line for the western eyewall for a sustained blasting... Not good... She appears to be moving 320 during the last hour, which is a subtle shift W after nearly 3 hours of what I would argue was probably more like 340... Too soon to tell if this is a "wobble" or not, but the trough that had induced this N tug earlier in the day is passing Wilma's longitude so....it will bee intersting to see how she responds... She may keep drifting up into the col area between major players, exhausting her current NW by slight NNW motion for a number of hours. This is actually a classic scenario that offers erratic track behavior so it is lucky for those track forecasting enthusiasts insanity that she is not taking advantage of that excuse to do so
But, the night is young. The worst thing that could happen here is that she'd approach the Coast and then stall, as opposed to the incorrect track guidance of bringing her bodily island. BTW: The 0z GFS is already off and the error only grows with each additional rad/sat frame...
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:07 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Vortex
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I attempted to extrap the motion from the Cancun radar site
if the motion from the images from 0:55 to 4:06 continues landfall would be on the N. 1/2 of Cozumel and then well south of Cancun
Attached..
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:10 AM |
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NNW motion
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This NNW motion has been ongoing for several hours, and I would no longer consider it a jog or a wobble. At this rate the eyewall will pass over the Yuc but all or most of the eye will miss; I agree with the NHC, I think most of these models are missing something.
Does anyone disagree with my observations / thoughts?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:13 AM |
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Re: NNW motion
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Quote:
This NNW motion has been ongoing for several hours, and I would no longer consider it a jog or a wobble. At this rate the eyewall will pass over the Yuc but all or most of the eye will miss; I agree with the NHC, I think most of these models are missing something.
Does anyone disagree with my observations / thoughts?
No - and actually, there's been a lot of conjecture regarding this that began in this thread some 3 hours ago... It may behoove you to go back over them as many individuals have rendered some decent insights/foresights on the matter.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:16 AM |
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Re: NNW motion
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I'm waiting on the latest Fix.
Off hand I'm getting 29min North and 17minutes West since 2305Z Vortex.
That would be roughly 0.5 N and 0.3 W.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:20 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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URNT12 KNHC 210516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/05:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 26 min N
086 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2477 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 128 kt
G. 28 deg 019 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3054 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A WILMA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 04:55:50 Z
Line J is the temp inside the Eye, and line K is the dewpoint inside the Eye.
A wide spread like that is part of the reason you are able to see through the Eye so clearly on satellite pics.
This gives an approximate Relative humidity of 49% inside the Eye.
http://www.eustis.army.mil/weather/weather_products/wxconversions.htm
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:21 AM |
|
Re: NNW motion
|
Quote:
I'm waiting on the latest Fix.
Off hand I'm getting 29min North and 17minutes West since 2305Z Vortex.
That would be roughly 0.5 N and 0.3 W.
I know I said I'm crashin' but you got check this out:
Conditions at 42056 as of
0450 GMT on 10/21/2005:
Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 60.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 73.8 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 35.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 13 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.8 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): S ( 186 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.21 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
This bouy is 60nm ENE of Wilma's center.
The pressure is 989.2mb
Interesting. That's almost a 1mb drop per 1nm!~danielw
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NNW motion
|
Quote:
No - and actually, there's been a lot of conjecture regarding this that began in this thread some 3 hours ago... It may behoove you to go back over them as many individuals have rendered some decent insights/foresights on the matter.
I commented on this about 8:50 PM (four and a half hours ago) tonight and the general inpression was that I was wrong; I though I was crazy by now.
While it is clear that the storm would be much stronger without a land passage, am I correct in thinking that the long term path would be unaffected much, as this woud be a minor path deviation?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NNW motion
|
Watch Page for Hurricane Wilma
http://inte099018.halls.colostate.edu/~vigh/weather/hurricanes/2005/wilma_watch.htm
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NNW motion
|
The steering currents are so weak right now. I don't know what to think, much less tell someone.
It's obvious that Wilma's being eroded on the western side...but they only indication of it seems to be the satellite images.
A minor pressure rise to 930mb with 150mph winds. A Force no one wants to reckon with.
I guess we will have to wait and see what she brings to us in the morning.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:50 AM |
|
Supp vortex
|
Pressure up 7mb from the last advisory, though until we get the next pressure reading, we won't know the current trend... it may have risen higher and then dropped, or has been slowly rising.
Supplementary vortex info indicates a secondary wind maximum outside of the eye, particularly in the NE quadrant, so another ERC could be forthcoming in the future, assuming landfall doesn't disrupt the whole thing first:
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01207 10852 13060 10707 12072
02205 20853 23031 20808 12076
03203 30855 33992 30908 12090
04201 40856 43922 40808 13108
05199 50858 53834 51210 12102
06197 60859 63592 61111 12094
MF197 M0859 MF128
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 05:55 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NNW motion
|
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WILMA IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 86.1W...OR ABOUT 80 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO...AT 21/0600 UTC
MOVING NW 5 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
WILMA COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE EARLIER TODAY AND THE NEW LARGER EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF 30 NM OR SO.
STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER THE ERN SEMICIRCLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW TO THE N/NE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST TO THE S AND NON-EXISTENT TO THE W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SE SEMICIRCLE AND 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE (EXCEPT THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT PENETRATING THAT FAR INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA).
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION IN RAINBANDS ALSO EXTENDS MAINLY NE OF WILMA FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W...EXTENDING ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE SE GULF.
RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULAR EYE WITH HEAVY RAINBANDS SPREADING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NE PART OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF QUINTANA ROO...INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS CANCUN...COZUMEL...AND TULUM.
CONDITIONS WILL ONLY WORSEN IN THESE AREAS AS THE CORE OF WILMA APPROACHES THE COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/210541.shtml?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:21 AM |
|
|
|
On Wave heights
|
Station 42040, located at 29°11'03"N 88°12'48"W approximately 64 nautical miles south of Dauphin Island Alabama, reported a significant wave height of 16.91 meters (55.5 feet) at 1100 UTC, August 29, 2005.
Station 42040 is a 3-meter diameter discus hull buoy deployed and operated by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Data Buoy Center (NDBC).
Although 42040 does not measure maximum wave heights, the maximum wave height may be statistically approximated by 1.9 times the significant wave height (World Meteorological Organization, 1998), which would be 32.1 meters (105 feet). At the time of the report, Hurricane Katrina was approximately 73 nautical miles to the west of 42040 with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour (Public Advisory 26A issued by the National Hurricane Center). In addition to the 55-foot report, 42040 reported seas 12 feet or greater for 47 consecutive hours.
The 55-foot report surpasses the previous highest significant wave height reported by an NDBC buoy in the Gulf of Mexico of 15.96 meters (52 feet), also reported by 42040 during Hurricane Ivan in September 2004, and matches the previous highest significant wave height reported by an NDBC buoy of 16.91 meters reported by station 46003 (in the Northeast Pacific Ocean south of the Aleutian Islands) in January 1991.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/katrina/
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:32 AM |
Re: On Wave heights
|
Oh look another record to add to the stack.
55 feet though. That's huge. I remember seeing 10-foot waves and thinking they were the end of the world.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re: On Wave heights
|
Couldn't sleep.
That's the one I saw the next day, reviewing that buoy info after Ivan.
Well the dry air is getting really close in to the eye, on the west side, and in fact breached the eyewall for a short time (dvorak IR 0515Z).
Also it looked like the eye was going to go a little to the east of the next forecast point, so I reviewed the steering layer data and it had changed a little bit, allowing a slightly more northern movement (just for now). Don't know how long that'll last or what's driving it, because I haven't been really looking at any of that stuff.
However a small change like that in the track could mean a great deal to Cozumel and Cancun, if the eye went just to the east. But that would not be in time I think to help Wilma intensify because the dry air will continue to have a big impact, even if she finds water a little warmer and deeper to the east.
But she is moving slower and slower, and really it is starting to look like she isn't going anywhere for awhile. If that's the case, she may be able to overcome the dry air and rebuild the west side of the circulation.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 06:52 AM |
|
|
|
More??
|
Highest windspeed inbound to the Eye ...so far is now 130kts at flight level.
Pressure and Wind Center near 19.6N / 86.1W
The NOAA 9 Gulfstream is airborne. My guess would be a pre-storm enviroment flight for the 12Z model runs.
URNT12 KNHC 210657
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/06:44:30Z
B. 19 deg 36 min N__+10min
086 deg 05 min W__+03min
C. 700 mb 2469 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 220 deg 130 kt
G. 135 deg 018 nm
H. 929 mb__-1mb
I. 10 C/ 3055 m
J. 18 C/ 3051 m__- 2C
K. 11 C/ NA __+2C
L. CLOSED
M. C30_________5 nm smaller
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT SE QUAD 06:39:10 Z
notations by danielw
Looks to be more of a near North heading than West
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: More??
|
Well they're not gonna find anything higher on the NW side.
The last couple sat frames, eye is getting more cleared out, it is intensifying and it would not take much to push it over Cat 5. Still looks to be hardly moving. Since recon is going to be there awhile I assume it will get back up to Cat 5, barely, before they head for home.
Guess I'll stick around to find out if the pressure changed any (I assume not much) and then try to get back to sleep.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:15 AM |
|
|
|
00z runs...
|
wow.. just about all of the globals have wilma doing a cyclonic loop over the ne yucatan. have to admit that it wouldn't be unprecedented... isidore back in 2002 swung onshore in a weak steering environment due to the asymmetry in its windfield caused by proximity to the peninsula. if that happens it's major bad juju for cancun and cozumel.. they'll get hammered all weekend by hurricane winds and rain. better in the longrun for florida because once these large systems get over land and their inner cores spin down/entrain a bunch of dry air, they don't tend to spin back up. you just end up with a large but mild windstorm. even the odd model that doesn't swing the hurricane onshore (ukmet for instance) has it slowing to a crawl near the coastline. that's probably enough to spin it down another category. either way wilma probably won't enter the gulf any stronger than a 3. all the models have pretty much slowed down but i don't quite see the extremely slow prog working out.. still think it can get to florida on sunday. the phasing solution i'm least certain about, but not backing away on that either.
there have been a few eyewall changes noted tonight... the definition and temperature gradient notably. what i see as important in the short term is the contraction. smaller eye=faster revolutions, it's as simple as that. with the pressure stable around 930mb a few miles off the diameter will have a wind-increasing effect, i'd expect by morning. the hurricane may creep back to 5 simply by inner core changes, though i doubt the pressure will be falling much. probably just stay steady or slowly weaken while offshore... spin down more quickly if it moves ashore.
anyhow, time to get some shuteye.
HF 0715z21october
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 07:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 00z runs...
|
While I was sitting here waiting for Hank to show up. (Just kidding Hank.).
I ran the Vortex fixes from20/2016Z to 21/0644Z through the GPS.
Using the 2016Z fix of 18.8/ 85.7 for the start point.
(The fix may look different than the NHC fix, as I'm converting from deg/ min to decimals, and rounding.)
2016Z fix to the 0644Z fix just completed.
Equals a heading of 336degrees (True North) for 53.4nm.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:08 AM |
|
Re: 00z runs...
|
Quote:
While I was sitting here waiting for Hank to show up. (Just kidding Hank.).
I ran the Vortex fixes from20/2016Z to 21/0644Z through the GPS.
Using the 2016Z fix of 18.8/ 85.7 for the start point.
(The fix may look different than the NHC fix, as I'm converting from deg/ min to decimals, and rounding.)
2016Z fix to the 0644Z fix just completed.
Equals a heading of 336degrees (True North) for 53.4nm.
North? Sounds like a glancing blow on the Yucatan. Exactly how much do you think this will affect track predictions?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 08:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 00z runs...
|
This was purely speculation on my part. As we know that Tropical Cyclones don't travel in straight lines.
If Wilma were to follow a 336deg heading, for 96nm. She would hypothetically cross the beach at Cancun. Possibly just the western Eyewall.
This is all hypothetical and based on her previous motion~danielw
http://www.cancunmap.com/hurricane.html
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:07 AM |
|
|
|
5 a.m.
|
From the 5 a.m. discussion:
This slow motion should continue to delay the recurvature toward Florida prolonging the agonizing wait . On the other hand...it gives time for the hurricane to weaken due to the effects of land and shear.
I guess they can't stand the waiting and continuous delays either.
| StPeteBill |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:23 AM |
Re: 5 a.m.
|
With the slow down in movement and a cold front coming into to Florida it looks like us in the St Pete/Tampa area can finally feel at ease.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:32 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
Are you saying that a cold front will keep Wilma to the south enough to keep everyone out of danger? Will it also send Wilma to the Atlantic graveyard? Will it keep people from having to evacuate inland from the Gulf Coast? If so, can you explain why this is true? I need to know this because I am responsible for making sure my office is secure before I come home today.
| Big Tk |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:40 AM |
Re: 5 a.m.
|
We might still get some squally weather late sat and sun but I think that will be about it. I believe tampa has dodged another Hurricane but time will tell.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
The 09:15 UTC WV loop shows the eye clearing.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
We still have the BAMD and LBAR coming pretty close to Tampa:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:45 AM |
Re: 5 a.m.
|
You may be ok, but I wouldn't start eating your nonperishables at this point. It's way too early to know.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 09:57 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
I have been told by some one who seemed to know that the bam and lbar were really only good at predicting winter weather type storms and not good at all with tropical storm style//
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:13 AM |
Re: 5 a.m.
|
LOL! West Central Fl discussion pretty much sums it up,
"...SEEMS LIKE WE GET TO A DIFFERENT DAY BUT
HAVE THE SAME THINGS TO DISCUSS"
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:13 AM |
|
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
Quote:
I have been told by some one who seemed to know that the bam and lbar were really only good at predicting winter weather type storms and not good at all with tropical storm style//
well they dont know what they are talking about. do a google on the bams and the lbar and then go tell your friends what the real deal is and show them how much more you know about it then they do. Here is a start:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
Excuse me for stepping back in.
Apparently something or someone has the notion that part of the Florida Peninsula is No Longer In Any Danger.
I consulted the 5 Day Forecast Track Map, from the National Hurricane Center to see what everyone was talking about.
The only thing I see that has changed is the Timing of When Some Part of the Florida Peninsula has a Landfalling Hurricane.
Since the Cone of certainty extends from the Northern Yucatan Peninsula, across All of the Florida Peninsula, to the DelMarVa Peninsula and the Eastern Tip of Long Island, NY.
I would tend to think that there are a lot of anxious people just waiting to get in or on some form of transportation and Leave.
Forecaster Avila summed it up Very Nicely in his last paragraph of the 5 AM Discussion. I'll repost that paragraph here.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN
THAN USUAL.
FORECASTER AVILA
And the Tampa NWS Office has added "West Central Florida" to the header of their Area Forecast Discussion.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005
...ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA...
They actually added " West Central Florida" to the text...24 hours ago.
We've been handed a grace period, if you will, to better prepare for a Hurricane. Please take this extra time and make Sure that You are ready to Leave. When ordered, asked or recommended to do so.
Once the wind speeds increase above 45 mph, Most, if not ALL Emergency Personnel will NOT Respond to your call for assistance. In some areas the wind speed cut off for Response may be 55 mph. But don't plan on that. Trees and powerlines can alter any of the Response Plans.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
And Emergency Management Agencies.~danielw
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
I am not sure how they plot the tropical forecast points in relation to time. I had assumed that these were plotted in relation to the NHC advisory times, which are 08:00, 11:00, 14:00, 17:00...If this is the case, is not Wilma traveling faster than expected? Take alook at the following link and tell me if you think it is now over the 08:00 EDt expected point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:28 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
Tampa Hazardoius weather outlook:
MARINERS AND RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THE PROGRESS AND FORECASTS OF WILMA...AS
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS WEEKEND.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:32 AM |
|
|
|
Wilma's Size
|
This is a great shot of Wilma's Actual Size. The lower. thin clouds in the Western Gulf Of Mexico are slowly feeding into Wilma. They aren't high enough to be captured by the colorization algorhythms.
Single Frame
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR2/20.jpg
IR2 Loop...you can see a faint hint of a trough passing through Southern LA/ MS.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html
Main Page for SSD Products.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:32 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
The 0945z water vapor image shows some decay in the NW quadrant due to land interactions. The south quadrant, however, is more impressive. Cozumel radar shows the eye probably passing through the western edge of the Yucatan channel - not making landfall in my opinion. This small difference in motion could be HUGE... because it will mean Wilma won't weaken as much due to land interactions as if it made landfall. It doesn't mean Cancun and Cozumel won't be impacted. I believe they'll get the western eyewall, but not the break in conditions that the eye would bring.
Beyond 24 hours this thing is just unpredictable. I just looked again at the plots of the forecast... by Sunday... it is forecast to be moving so rapidly that it will make it all the way up to... due north of Cancun by it looks like 50 miles maybe. It's now SE of Cozumel. I don't know exactly but that looks like maybe 100 miles of movement in 2 days.
When - even if - it turns to the east... remains to be seen. If I were on the west coast of the peninsula... I wouldn't feel out of the woods, no matter where I was.
| jam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 10:48 AM |
|
not confident
|
it seems noone is confident in when it will make that turn.any chance this storm could make landfall early.not trying to scare anyone is there a chance of a tampa evac saturday .i was just wondering because of traffic issues..any gestimate on timing.i dont know much about storm i have little experience from 2004
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:03 AM |
|
|
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Re: not confident
|
Jam, There is a chance that Wilma might speed up. But I think it's a very small chance at this hour.
There is a trough-like feature moving into the NW GOM right now. Earlier Forecasts said that this trough would Not be strong enough to help in moving Wilma. We have to go with that Forecast...as they haven't changed it.
Pay close attention to the Weather Service and Local Emergency Management Officials. They will tell you what to do and when to do it.
If you feel like things are changing and you can't get enough local info. Then i would suggest you travel North a ways and try the Info there.
I hate to send someone on an unnecessary trip. But it's the safe route right now.
The 'trough' is currently between the TX Coast and the NW portion of Wilma's Outflow south of Louisiana.
If anything is going to change we should know something by Noon or early afternoon. I'm not seeing a lot of amplitude in this trough. The Weather Service was indicating the possibility of a third trough moving in before anything changed drastically.
Back to more waiting for the Call.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:19 AM |
|
|
Re: not confident
|
Looking at the UA fcst maps .... westerlies will still impact the movement. Didn't think the TROF would reach that far south, at least overtly in it's amplitude.
Latest from NHC: Storm Coords 20.4N 86.6W mvmt 330 at 5 knots.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:29 AM |
|
Re: not confident
|
I know that everyone is focused on the eye and the landfall or not on Florida, but my question is when to expect deteriorating conditions for Florida's West Central Coast from Sarasota to Cedar Key. Those who may have to evacuate will have to have a plan and be gone before that time due to the traffick, the slow movement of mass evacuation, and the possibility of car wrecks, gasoline runouts, and engine failures which happen routinely in rush hour traffic. Friday afternoons in Lakeland are excruciating and a 4 mile drive under normal conditions can take 20 minutes if the traffic lights are out of sequence or there is a slow moving vehicle ahead. The anxiety level from an evacuation is multiplied 2x the IQ of a turkey divided by the lack of enough evacuation routes ten to the one billionth power.
| BullitNutz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:29 AM |
|
Re: not confident
|
It seems like we're pretty much hearing "The whole FL peninsula is going to get hit by a hurricane." I mean, I've made sure the family and friends are prepared, but even in the short term things seem very very nebulous... seems like every time I look at a loop the storm's going in a different direction. I don't think there will be a whole lot of certainty until the day of landfall. Looks like this will be pretty bad for whoever it hits.
| jam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:36 AM |
|
Re: not confident
|
thanks for the reply.i will keep posted to local stations and this site.that would be great if we had more info this afternoon you can bet the nhc are hoping this is the last one this season.i was thinking of visiting some poeple out of state so i will keep posted.traffic should be fine tonight.stay safe
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:38 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
There seems to be a lot of discussion about how slow Wilma is moving and that the models have it almost stalling out. It appears to me to be moving fairly steadily (albeit not that fast) based on the radar loop and satellite loops. If you look at the position as of 4:00CDT and the position at 10:00PM CDT just taking into consideration the northward component (too early for real math) it has moved around 40 Nautical miles in 6 hours, or between 6 and 7 MPH; which confirms NOAA's 6 MPH.
Personally, it appears from the angle and speed from the loops that the eye may be just off Cozumel by this evening; which appears different than the models or the 3 day TPC Graphic.
As a Newbie poster (longtime lurker) I was wondering what indications people see that it reallly is slowing down/stalling out as the models and others are saying; and for that matter where are the indications that it will start to head into the tip of the Yucatan.
Thanks!
| jam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:44 AM |
|
Re: not confident
|
yeah its a wide storm .hard to say.i was just thinking how nice the wheather was and this thing just blew up into a monster lets hope something changes for the better its been some hurricane season
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:48 AM |
|
Re: 5 a.m.
|
The 06 GFDL has her at 20.5 N in 30 hours. She better stop on a dime if that's going to hold true!
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:48 AM |
|
|
Re: not confident
|
[quote Friday afternoons in Lakeland are excruciating and a 4 mile drive under normal conditions can take 20 minutes if the traffic lights are out of sequence or there is a slow moving vehicle ahead. The anxiety level from an evacuation is multiplied 2x the IQ of a turkey divided by the lack of enough evacuation routes ten to the one billionth power.
_________________________________________________________________________
ROFL! You must be a cracker. I nearly fell out of my chair laughing at your post. Florida traffic has indeed gone from bad to worse with the mass influx of those escaping the snow. I live in Cortez, just a few miles from I-75, but a full 40 minute drive on a good day. I truly cannot imagine the nightmare of evacuation traffic from Anna Maria Island and Longboat Key added to our "normal" bumper to bumper life. It might make US-1 in the keys look like a turnpike.
Thanks for the humor and the evacuation reminder: Leave early and often. :-)
-Bev
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:52 AM |
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Meandering storms
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I know there has been a lot of discussion about how a hurricane cannot or won't "turn on a dime". Having watched storms avidly for ten years, I know they can, do, and will change and even reverse directions given the right conditions.
I was wondering if someone with a better memory or more time for research could come up with a list of 5 or so storms with impressive meanderin and/or /reversal paths?
Betsy comes to mind immediately but I couldn't think of others.
Thanks,
Bev
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:53 AM |
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Re: Meandering storms
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** DING!
New thread people
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 11:59 AM |
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Re: 5 a.m.
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have to agree jlauderdal,
I have zero confidence in the BAMM or BAMD models (at least this year).
This season my confidence goes with the NHC and GFDL models.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Oct 21 2005 12:06 PM |
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Re: not confident
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Talking about evacuation and Florida traffic.
As a long time (lifelong) resident, I've of course seen phenominal growth in Florida. When I ocassionally express to newcomers that the paradise they see today is a horror to me, they look at me as if I'm out of my mind. Florida is no longer the paradise it once was.
As a result of the enormous population growth that continues to take place in Florida, our roads or "lack" of them continues to be one of our biggest problems. As stated in a previous post, on a good day, normal commutes now take an hour when 10 years ago they took 20 minutes.
Multiply that by the fact that there are only a handfull of N/S and E/W roads on which to dump out evacuation traffic and you have a logistical nighmare on your hands. This is why so many choose to simply stay home and ride it out.
With all that said, I would still choose to leave than stay if I lived along the coast in direct path of Hurricane Wilma. I would hope that the lessons learned from Katrina would not be wasted on the citizens of the Florida coast. Please listen to the advise of your local governmental authorities and prepare.
If nothing else, Wilma has given us more than ample time to be prepared for her pass over our state.
The fact that you have come to this board and are taking the time to read other peoples posts and opinions means that you are far ahead of most of the population that simply depends on the "news media" to give them their hurricane news. I could and sometimes do turn off the media in favor of sites such as this.
Believe me, we are as up to date and informed as any of the talking heads on your Television set.
Stay safe everyone and be prepared. Once Wilma is past, I hope we can put this season to bed but now is not the time to let your guard down anywhere along the Florida Penninsula from Cedar Key to the Keys.